5/12/26: Bibi Blames Social Media For Anti-Israel Criticism, Derek Thompson On Billionaire AI Takeover

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: May 12, 2026 – "Bibi Blames Social Media For Anti-Israel Criticism, Derek Thompson On Billionaire AI Takeover"

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Main Theme Overview

This episode covers two major stories:

1. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims that social media and foreign manipulation are to blame for declining U.S. support for Israel and the ensuing debates around freedom of discourse, censorship, and high-profile media controversies.
2. An extended conversation with journalist Derek Thompson about the explosive growth of AI, the political and economic implications of massive data center expansions, corporate power, and the paradox between rising prosperity and Americans’ record-low sense of well-being.

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Segment 1: Netanyahu, Social Media, and Declining U.S. Support for Israel

Timestamps: 02:18–21:05

Key Discussion Points

• Netanyahu’s Claim on 60 Minutes
  Netanyahu blames the sharp drop in American support for Israel on social media manipulation by foreign actors, implying that Americans (especially conservatives) have been duped by bots and disinformation.

  • “We have seen the deterioration of support for Israel in the United States... it correlates almost 100% with the geometric rise of social media.” – Derek (quoting Bibi) [02:47]
  • He also attributes manipulation to foreign “bot farms,” specifically referencing “a basement in Pakistan.” [03:31]

• Critique of Netanyahu’s Position
  Emily Jashinsky and Saagar Enjeti highlight the condescension in Netanyahu’s suggestion that American views are the result of foreign mind-control rather than a rational shift based on facts.

  • “He is implying that the American people are so stupid that dumb little text messages are what swayed them...” – Emily [03:51]
  • Emily frames this as dismissive of actual American interests and autonomy.

• Israel’s Policy Toward Dissenting Journalists and Content Creators
  Discussion about Israel barring YouTuber Tyler Oliveira, who faced accusations of antisemitism after reporting critical content.

  • Saagar critiques the hypocrisy: “If he does a video about illegal migrants in Europe, everybody loves him... But they love the Somalians. Oh, no, you can't do that, right?” [06:50]
  • Critique of Israel’s broad policy to bar those who “disseminate anti Semitic content, support BDS or incite against the state of Israel.” [05:45]

• Free Speech, Media Manipulation, and Reality
  The hosts draw a distinction between real shifts in sentiment due to actual events/info (e.g., Gaza, October 7th) versus a narrative of mass manipulation.

  • “They view it as a social media problem, not a reality problem.” – Saagar [07:27]
  • Noted lack of tolerance for U.S. discourse autonomy: “You don't get to tell our bleeding heart liberals what to say and, or do. And you definitely don't get to throw them in prison.” – Saagar [08:13]

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Notable Moment

• On Tyler Oliveira’s Influence
  • “This is like culture. You know what I'm saying? Culture era stuff. Like, this is a YouTube tier, which we are never going to be in.” – Saagar [07:10]

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Segment 2: Media Controversies – NYT, Palestinian and Israeli Abuses

Timestamps: 08:35–21:05

Key Discussion Points

• New York Times Reporting on Sexual Violence

  • Saagar and Emily critique the propagandistic inflation of allegations about mass rape on October 7th and contrast that with backlash against Nick Kristof’s reporting on Palestinian prisoners being raped or abused in Israeli detention.
  • Emphasize journalistic scrutiny: Many original claims regarding October 7th did not hold up, and now Kristof is getting similar pushback from pro-Israel figures. [08:35–13:36]
  • “What they're saying is that's evidence that the entire thing is made up. At the end of the day, it's firsthand account from... 14 Palestinian men and women.” – Saagar [13:55]
  • Discussion on the credibility of Kristof’s sources (e.g., Euromed, B’Tselem, CPJ reports) and the difference between genuine critique and blanket denial.

• Political Fallout of the Kristof Report

  • Deborah Lipstadt, prominent Holocaust scholar, and Israeli officials attack the NYT piece as “blood libel,” but Emily points out that critics exaggerate the degree to which the story depends on disputed testimony.
  • “People see the backlash, then they go read the story... it's an experience for them where they can... compare what they're being told with then what they see in the story.” – Emily [18:39]

• Social Media and Shifting Narratives

  • Rising availability of independent information via social media is regarded as a major factor in shifting public perception, contrary to the “outside manipulation” thesis.
  • “A lot of accurate information that is bypassing the media gatekeepers... people can make up their own minds.” – Emily [20:39]

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Memorable Quote

• “If you think it's... read this. Emily presented ... the criticism. You make up your mind for yourself. ... Look at the Israeli government's response and all that. You might find it very revealing.” – Saagar [20:39]

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Segment 3: Interview with Derek Thompson on AI, Regulation, Billionaires, and American Malaise

Timestamps: 23:41–47:46

Key Discussion Points

• Is AI a Bubble or Structural Revolution?

  • Massive private investments (e.g., Anthropic’s $45B run rate) suggest this is unlike previous tech bubbles.
  • “If you thought that the odds that AI was a bubble in 2025 were greater than 50%... the best time to flip flop is when reality changes.” – Derek [23:53]
  • Derek moves his “bubble” probability from 55% down to 40%: “If you're living in a world where we’re watching the fastest growing companies... quadruple their annualized run rate every six months, well, that has to make you less certain that it's a bubble.” [27:17]

• Data Centers, Local Backlash, and Political Consequences

  • Emily notes the rising grassroots opposition to data centers due to environmental and local concerns, challenging “AI at all costs.”
  • “There is a populist wave that wants to shut you guys down...that thinks that artificial intelligence is frankly... a kind of demonic force that is guaranteed to displace or... destroy tens of millions of jobs.” – Derek [28:40]
  • Tech companies’ solution: Build centers overseas if blocked in the U.S., raising national security and policy consequences.

• Derek’s “Abundance” Framework vs. AI Expansion

  • Saagar presses Derek on how AI fits “abundance economics” given dissatisfaction and real costs for ordinary people.
  • Derek distinguishes between bottlenecks due to data centers and those due to basic grid bottlenecks (transformers, transmission). He wants direct, not AI-focused, solutions to energy, housing affordability, and infrastructure woes.
    • “The primary ingredient is not... artificial intelligence. It’s the boring stuff... the infrastructure of the electrical grid.” – Derek [32:37]

• Corporate Power, Billionaire Influence, and Politics

  • Emily and Derek discuss AI’s role in spawning vast new billionaire fortunes and its downstream effect on democratic legitimacy.
  • “We're walking into a world that's going to have a lot more billionaires. ... billionaires are going to account for something between 20 and 50% of all political spending... That should make people concerned.” – Derek [41:26]
  • Derek advocates rolling back Trump-era tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and ensuring billionaires pay an effective rate higher than average workers.

• Rising National Malaise – The “Tragic 20s”

  • Saagar references Derek’s article on steeply declining American happiness, tying this in with fears around AI and technology.
  • Derek’s many-cause diagnosis: lingering pandemic effects, inflation and interest rates keeping young people out of housing, and technology/smartphone saturation leading to “regret economy.”
    • “Phones are bad for us. I think that they are compulsive. ... we live in, like, a regret economy where we regret a lot of our leisure rather than feel good about it.” – Derek [45:40]
  • He emphasizes avoiding single-cause explanations for national malaise, advocating political and media leaders address this “portfolio of concerns.”

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “If you were to read not even just about the conditions... that happen... with a lot of Palestinian detainees in Israeli prison now, at the end of the day, why do they care so much? The reason... is because it makes them look like the same people that they're fighting. ... the moral high ground is so important.” – Saagar [16:54–17:34]

• “We're walking into a world... where billionaires are going to account for something between 20 and 50% of all political spending... The amount of attention and political will that can be bought with that kind of money should make people concerned.” – Derek [41:26]

• "We live in a regret economy where we regret a lot of our leisure rather than feel good about it... I think people are often right to feel like hot garbage. And I'm not going to say they should... feel better just because we're richer. But I do want... political leaders to speak to... all of it." – Derek [45:40–47:26]

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Memorable/Funny Moment

• “My favorite Oliveira's video is when he went to, like, Alabama and tried to find people who had kissed their cousins. Like, this is the content America needs.” – Emily [07:01]
• “We send Ryan Grimm out to Alabama and try to find cousin kissers. Could be interesting.” – Emily [07:19]

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Important Timestamps

• 02:18 – Netanyahu’s media blaming segment begins
• 05:45 – Israel’s policy toward journalists/dissenters (Tyler Oliveira)
• 08:35 – Discussion shifts to New York Times, Kristof report, media backlash
• 20:39 – Reflections on why support for Israel dropped, social media as catalyst
• 23:41 – Derek Thompson interview on AI begins
• 27:29 – AI as a bubble? Thompson’s perspective
• 28:40 – Data centers/localism/backlash against AI
• 32:05 – Abundance framework vs. AI expansion
• 39:00 – Corporate power, monopoly, billionaires and democracy
• 42:35 – American malaise, mental health, and technology’s dark side

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Summary Takeaway

This episode of Breaking Points sharply critiques the establishment narratives around both the Israel/Hamas conflict and the rise of AI, arguing for more respect for American agency, deeper skepticism of elite “explanations,” and a broader conversation about the real impacts of power, technology, and money on democracy and wellbeing. The show shines when connecting the dots between the control of public narratives, the consolidation of capital and power in Silicon Valley, and the underlying social unease that no technology or establishment campaign seems able to cure.

Transcript

[Derek Thompson]

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[Krystal Ball]

Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full [e-mail] hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist and anywhere else.

[Krystal Ball]

So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breaking points.com Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com

[Emily Jashinsky]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his splashy 60 Minutes interview on Sunday night, which Crystal and I covered Yesterday also made some comments in regard to what he sees as rising anti Semitism and he has a theory of why this is apparently happening. It is related to, you guessed it, social media. Let's take a listen to this first thought.

[Derek Thompson]

We have seen the deterioration of support for Israel in the United States almost,

[Saagar Enjeti]

I would say it correlates almost 100%

[Derek Thompson]

with the geometric rise of social media. And that by itself is not what caused it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And I don't believe in censoring them or anything, but I'll tell you what happened. We have several countries that basically manipulated social media with bot farms, with fake

[Derek Thompson]

addresses to break the American sympathy to Israel, to break the American Israeli alliance because they think it's in their interests and they do it in a clever way. You know, it's like you hear a

[Saagar Enjeti]

text message, I'm a red blooded Texan, I always supported Israel, but I can't

[Derek Thompson]

stand what they're doing. I'm turning against Israel.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And then you trace the address to some basement in Pakistan, you know, and that's something that has hurt us badly. While we were fighting the physical military

[Derek Thompson]

battle on seven battlefields, seven front war, we were completely exposed on the eighth front, the media war, really, the social media war.

[Emily Jashinsky]

In a healthy political climate, he would be asked to apologize for those comments because he is implying that the American people are so stupid that dumb little text messages are what swayed them to start. Especially he's talking about the American right. You can hear because he talks about this red blooded American Texan. That's his way of talking specifically about Republican voters. Conservatives, right, leaners in the United States are just so dumb that their opinions can't pop. Informed that if they have lost, if they are, if their support for Israel is declining, it's because they are misinformed, ill informed, disinformed or too stupid to actually just have an opinion that differs from Prime Minister Netanyahu's as Americans. By the way, people who believe their country's interests, their interests, their family interests, their children's interests are out of line with the party that Netanyahu, the Likud Party essentially. And Sagar going to toss this over to you with also the news that Israel is bullet is bragging basically about banning Tyler Oliveira from entering the country. This is the next element. It's a Laura Loomer exclusive. She posts Israel's Minister of Diaspora and Combating Anti Semitism exclusively tells me, quote, it was his pleasure to make sure Tyler Oliveira could not enter Israel. Today upon landing in the country from the U.S. she mentions of course, also, that Tucker just completed an interview, Tyler just completed an interview with Tucker Carlson in which they bashed Israel with lies. And then Tyler hopped on an El Al flight to Israel. Sagar. So it's all just an op from foreign countries manipulating Americans, manipulating Tucker Carlson, using him. This is all from foreign money. It couldn't possibly be American people saying this is what is in my rational interest based on the best information that they could come up with.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, you really should read, actually what this is. This guy said, the Minister of the Diaspora. He says the party is over. Anyone who comes here with the aim of spreading hatred will be sent back where they came from. This follows the implementation of the new policy. Entry into Israel or activity within Israel will not be permitted. For anyone who disseminates anti Semitic content, supports BDS or incites against the state of Israel and the Jewish people, the rule is simple. Whoever incites against us simply will not be here. And of course, Tyler Oliveira, to my knowledge, you know, the video which they are the most upset with him about is the one about, I think it was a Hasidic Jewish community, I think, in New Jersey. Okay, listen, go watch it, you know, for yourself.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Go watch it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You can decide, you know, whether it's anti Semitic or not. I would say it fits within the broad catalog of the work that he've done. And that's, I mean, to me, that's the hypocrisy. Like, if he does a video about, like, illegal migrants in Europe, everybody loves him, right? Yeah, at least right wingers. But they love the Somalians.

[Derek Thompson]

They love it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, no, you can't do that. Right? And see, that's the problem. And that's, by the way, why that guy has what, like 9 million subscribers on YouTube? This is. We're just a politics show. This is like a cultural phenomenon.

[Emily Jashinsky]

It is my favorite. Oliveira's video is when he went to, like, Alabama and tried to find people who had kissed their cousins. Like, this is the content America needs.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Like, this is like culture. You know what I'm saying? Culture era stuff. Like, this is a YouTube tier, which we are never going to be in. I don't want to be.

[Emily Jashinsky]

We send Ryan Grimm out to Alabama and try to find cousin kissers. Could be interesting.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We could send Ryan Grimm to find fish vans in Alabama.

[Derek Thompson]

That would be fun.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Just, it'd be like uniting of brothers. But I think the point that remains here is they view it as a social media problem, not a reality problem. And look, it's trite and it's funny. Tyler Oliveira.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Ha, ha ha.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Okay, that's not serious. What's serious are stories like the one we're about to show you, which actually really do shock the conscience and make you go, huh, is this something that you want to be either complicit in or supportive of and, or, you know, it makes you just think, is this the country which we were told that it is? Right. And I think for a lot of people, a lot of younger left lefties, humanitarians, what happened in Gaza is really shocking. Yeah. From a right wing perspective, it's also been the humanitarian. But the biggest discomfort comes from the level of control over discourse in our own country. Right. It's because you really start to be like, well, hold on a second. You know, not some bleeding heart liberal, but you don't get to tell our bleeding hurt liberals what to say and, or do. And you definitely don't get to throw them in prison. Right. Like that's our business. It's not your business.

[Derek Thompson]

Right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And that's what I think really starts to grate, I think, and it becomes something that's now happened altogether. It's been almost three years since October 7th. It just blew the doors really off of this. And then, you know, finally this long winded way of getting to the New York Times story. But I do think it's important because the reaction now from the pro Israel diaspora or the Israeli government to the story pales in comparison to the way that they reacted when Ryan and many others started investigating the claims over mass rape on October 7th. And look, this is the most difficult, uncomfortable thing to talk about, but so be it. It's become a major part of the discourse around this subject. The point remains that the New York Times story which they published about mass rape on October 7, screams without words. Screams without words had several holes within it that did not hold up to serious journalistic scrutiny. I'm not saying necessarily it didn't happen, but many of the claims that they made within that that were investigated again, not just by Ryan, but many others that looked into them systematically. Many of them did not hold up over time. Okay, so then let's compare that. And I'm gonna let you set this up to this now New York Times story from Nick Kristof about rape of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, yeah, and let's just also, I mean, Ryan is always very careful to say this. He thinks the chance that there was no rape on October 7th is zero. It is not. It is unrealistic to say that there was no sexual violence or rape on October 7th. Almost certainly there was and there is evidence. The question is whether these claims were inflated for the sake of propaganda and then misreported by outlets who had lapses in journalistic ethics, essentially. And now this is being turned around against New York Times columnist Nick Kristof. He is on the opinion side of the paper and he ran this story just yesterday. We can pop it up on the screen here.

[Saagar Enjeti]

D4.

[Emily Jashinsky]

The headline is the Silence that meets the rape of Palestinians. He started by saying, it's a simple proposition. Whatever our views of the Middle east conflict, we should be able to unite in condemning rape. Supporters of Israel made that point after the brutal sexual assaults against Israeli women during the Hamas led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Now he's very clearly starting on a point of agreement with many of the people who are now his detractors. He goes on to say, yet in wrenching interviews, Palestinians have recounted to me a pattern of widespread Israeli sexual violence against men, women and even children by soldiers, settlers, interrogators in the Shin Bet internal security agency, and above all, prison guards. Now, people took issue with the fact that Kristof cited a report from the Euromed Human Rights Monitor, which people who are pro Israel see as anti Israel and biased for that reason, Christoph, in the piece, I will say he does describe it as, quote, a Geneva based advocacy group often critical of Israel. So in the piece he caveats the evidence with that identifier descriptor of Euromed. But we can go on. Probably the biggest piece of information that he included in the piece were allegations of trained dog sexual abuse. So this became an absolute. This became an absolute attack against him on X from people like Deborah Lipstadt. We can put this next element up on the screen. This is D5. This was Lipstadt saying the New York Times. So she's a premier Holocaust scholar who also was the Biden administration's anti Semitism very, very big supporter.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So like a center left liberal center left.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yep, yep, exact. So Adam Lewis Klein publishes this graphic that says the New York Times published the anti Zionist dog rape libel. And Deborah Lipschneck quote, tweets this. Have they the New York Times no sense of decency and journalistic responsibility. The Adam Lewis Klein Post compares the New York Times to Dare Strmer and includes Hugh Stryker. Yes, and includes the reminder, as one New York correspondent for Haaretz notes, that Stryker was, quote, hanged. I mean the fire. Nick Kristoff Social media graphics were blazing all over X yesterday.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Continue this morning. Continuing this morning from the Israeli government Too. Let's be clear, it's not just about commentators. We're talking about the government of Israel, like the Prime Minister of Israel.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yes. And there have been efforts to debunk over and over again the Kristoff story. And Sagar, I just want to toss this to you. I read the story after reading the backlash to it. So I read the.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, with all the caveats in your head.

[Derek Thompson]

Yes.

[Emily Jashinsky]

So I read the story and I expected it to be much different based on the debunking, because the debunking of the story is actually really a debunking of a couple different pieces of it, but not the broad picture of the story. Yeah. So they're mad about Euromed being cited,

[Saagar Enjeti]

but actually there's like one particular account that they call into the question the motives of the. Now, why are we going through all this? Because what they're saying is that that's evidence that the entire thing is made up. And at the end of the day, it's firsthand account from. What is it? 14 Palestinian men and women, lawyers, human rights workers, family members, the detailed account of rape and sexual assault with objects, genital abuse, forced strict searches by mixed gender groups, threats of rape used to intimidate detainees into silence or cooperation with intelligence services victims, including men, women and children as young as 15 and.

[Derek Thompson]

Yeah, go ahead.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, I was gonna say it's not just euromed, it's also B'Tselem. There are other groups that are cited in here. There are other people than the person who has this story that is horrific about being raped by a dog who is as a prisoner, that the identity of that person who goes on the record is then being called into question by people who support Israel and are trying to debunk the story because they say this person is supportive of terrorism. And they are again, on the record in this New York Times piece. But they are not the only source in the story. And when I went into the piece after reading all of the debunking, I expected it to be a story that was mostly based around the Euromed report. And this one person's. This one person's claim. No, as you just pointed out, it is multiple human rights organizations reports and it is 14 different people that Kristof interviewed. And then the New York Times obviously vetted in their editorial process. They have attorneys. So do I think the New York Times gets a lot of things wrong?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yes, same.

[Emily Jashinsky]

This is a very hot story.

[Saagar Enjeti]

How about this? Sue them, then go for it. You know, that's my, my critique Is, look, Israel and everybody else, you say it's all fabricated. Go for it. All right, sue them. Let's open it up for discovery. Open yourselves up for discovery. Do it in US Court in New York State. All right, let's go. Fine. Let's see what you've got. Sue Nick Kristoff and let's see what you got. And if what you've got is if you can open up all your files and you can prove in each of these individual cases that what they're saying is not true, then you will win. And you are correct that this would be some fake blood libel and or hit job. And what Kristof can do is he can reveal what he was told, the fact checking and all that stuff that went behind it, and then we can see for ourselves, or they can jawbone on social media and we will continue to see, basically calling this a blood libel or any of that, but any sort of like actual, you know, ability to quote, debunk doesn't, you know, you said something about there about, oh, this is not just human rights. I would put all that out of there. And I would say to not just look necessarily at the cuz. That's the other problem. These people are often in such an information vacuum that this is the only first time they may have ever heard anything.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Do we not all remember the case of the Israeli Shoulders who were literally on camera being caught doing this to Palestinian prisoners who then were jailbroken out of by their own citizens and celebrated?

[Emily Jashinsky]

That was called a blood libel.

[Saagar Enjeti]

No, that's true, though. That actually happened. And here's the thing. It was a scandal inside of their country. All you need to do is read Israeli media. So if you were to read that and have knowledge of that and then read this, you're like, okay, well, that kind of makes sense, doesn't it? And if you were to read not even just about the conditions or some of these other things that happen, you know, with a lot of Palestinian detainees in Israeli prison now, at the end of the day, why do they care so much? The reason that they care so much about this story is because it makes them look like the same people that they're fighting. Right. And that's the problem for them, the moral high ground is so important.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, yeah, it's the predicate for usaid.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It's the predicate, not just for usaid, but for this declaration of we are a Western country. We're just like you. We're blood brothers. Right. That's what they try to say. Yeah, it's not true. Okay. They don't operate like that. They haven't been like that a long time now. Are there a lot of people like that over there? Absolutely. Don't get me wrong. But that does not mean that the government itself, with Ben Gvirs and Smotriches and all these people, like, you know, listen to the, these liberal Zionists will even tell you these people are in a different league. And they combine this with, let's say, how they operate in the west bank and some of these lynchings and other things that happened, these killings of either U.S. citizens or others and the settler movement. And then you've got this treatment of some of these Palestinian prisoners or detainees or this new law that they just passed about executing. You got to add it all up in totality. And you would say, wow, you look a lot like Saudi Arabia actually, which you claim you're a lot better than, but maybe you're just the same. And if you are the same, well, that's gonna change the security calculus. Cause then we're gonna start being like, oh, this isn't an emotional relationship. This is like what's in it for the both of us argument. And maybe not a lot, actually.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, and this is why Netanyahu is right now working to convince the American government to further crash cripple Iran. It's why he said in that same 60 Minutes interview that his plan is to help Israel be weaned off his words US Support within the next decade. Now, Sagar, you could take the dog elements out of the story and you could take Euromed out of the story and you would still have a strong piece from Kristof, who also cites, for example, the Committee to Protect Journalists, which has surveyed 59 Palestinian journalists who were released by Israeli authorities after October 7th. Quote, 3% said they had been raped and 29%, 29% said they had endured other forms of sexual violence. You can remove the elements of the story that are being most, the most high profile elements of the story that are being picked apart right now. And you still have a story that can't really be picked apart in whole. And this is why there's a significant, these back backlashes like this one are actually counterproductive for Netanyahu's purposes. And I really mean that for people who support Israel, backlashes like this one actually backfire because what they do is people see the backlash, then they go read the story, right? And that's an experience for them where they can contrast and compare what they're being told with then what they see in the story. And it's one of those things. I think one of the big reasons Sagar, that support has declined for Israel in the United States is that people because of social media, not because of foreign ops, but because of a lot of accurate information that is bypassing the media gatekeepers. Because of a lot of that, they have been able to compare what they were told for a really long time with some actual videos, some actual testimonies. And listen, people can make up their own minds.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, read it. Go ahead. You know, if you think it's read this. Emily presented the what they said is the criticism. You make up your mind for yourself. All right, I'll present. You know, look at the Israeli government's response and all that. You might find it very revealing. I certainly do take my own thoughts out of it. Take her thoughts out of it. You can go read it and you can decide what you think for yourself. All right, let's move on. We have Derek Thompson standing by to talk about AI. Let's get to it.

[Martha Stewart]

This is Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart Podcast. Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret. Getting ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens Countertop Prep Paper Just lightly wet the counter beforehand so the paper grips and stays in place. Then lay down the Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper so drips and spills stay on the paper, not all over your kitchen counter. You can roll out dough, prep a party spread, or cook alongside family. When you're done, cleanup is as simple as lifting the paper and revealing that clean counter underneath. Effortless. You can use it for cooking and baking, prep and even crafting, especially when you need extra working space. Because when the mess is already handled, you can focus on what matters. The food, the people, and the moment. It may look effortless, but now you know it's Reynolds Kitchens Countertop Prep Paper. Take a tip from me. Wet it, set it, prep it, done. Make it easy. Make it with Reynolds Kitchens Countertop prep paper. Available now in the Reynolds Wrap aisle and Walmart, Target, Amazon, and Costco.

[Derek Thompson]

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[Krystal Ball]

you know what quality feels like. You can see it in the way a fabric moves, recognize it in a flawless fit, and appreciate it in the details that make our styles unique. That kind of quality doesn't happen by accident. It happens with imagination, creativity, and intention. At Coldwater Creek, it's the design standard we've honored for over 40 years. Our rich mountain heritage has shaped how we think about clothing from the very beginning, with a commitment to quality that never quits exceptional fabrics. Consider design silhouettes we've made our own the signature touches that set each piece apart and styles that are distinctively Coldwater Creek. For a wardrobe you can count on season after season, visit coldwatercreek.com shop new arrivals and save 15% on purchases. $75 or more with code iHeart.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Very excited now to be joined by our friend Derek Thompson. He's the host of the Plain English podcast and the author of the Derek Thompson substack link down in the descript. Thank you so much for joining us, sir. Appreciate it.

[Derek Thompson]

Great to be here. Thank you.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Derek, you're always a very thoughtful person who challenges some of the preconceived notions I have here on AI. I thought it was a bubble for a long time. Let's put this up here on the screen. You recently just pointed out, actually you say if you thought that the odds that AI was a bubble in 2025 were greater than 50%, I don't know how you can look at this and not shift your odds. The best time to flip flop is when reality changes. A leading AI company's run rate quadrupling in six months is some kind of change. You are looking specifically there at Anthropic, which has reached a 45 billion run rate one month after reaching 30 billion, a continuation of the tripling per quarter and 100x annualized growth that we've seen. So first, let's just sit with that. It does seem currently as if it's not a bubble. What does that mean and how certain are you?

[Derek Thompson]

I think I'm not certain at all. I mean, look, it would be crazy to be certain. It would honestly be clinically insane to feel strongly about how the next five years are going to play out. I mean, this is a cliche, but it's always appropriate to begin with the basic facts here. You have private sector companies spending 600 to $700 billion every single year on a technology that is still in its infancy. I mean, we haven't seen anything like this ever. My favorite statist share here is that the Apollo Program spent between the 1960s and early 1970s about $300 billion in inflation adjusted dollars. So now you have not the government which was funding the Apollo Program, but Private sector companies like Microsoft, OpenAI, et cetera, spending as much money as the Apollo program every five to six months. That's absolutely nuts. That's nuts. And if you're certain how this is going to turn out, you're crazy. That said, I think the basic reason to think that something is a bubble is to boil it down to basics. Spending is outrunning revenue, right? In the 19th century, in the 1800s, the reason that the railroads were a bubble is that they were taking on debt to build rail that was not used. And so they would take on debt, they would spend all this money to build out the rail and they couldn't get money coming in because no one was living at the other end of the railroad. And as a result they went belly up over and over and over again. In the panics of the 19th century. Or you look at say the dot com bubble where a bunch of fiber optic cable was laid in the ground hoping that demand would materialize. It didn't materialize on time. Instead, the Netflixes of the world and the YouTubes of the world that use that fiber optic cable didn't really come online until like 15 years after it was put in the ground. And as a result, it was a short term bubble. So the critical question that we should ask here when we're trying to understand if AI is a bubble is, is the demand, is the revenue going to show up on time? Last year I think the wise answer to that question was no. This is simply way too much money to materialize before these companies are going to realize that their cash flows are absolutely destroyed by spending all of this money on data centers and chips and electricity and all of that. But if you're living in a world where we're watching the fastest growing companies in the history of modern capitalism quadruple their annualized run rate every six months, well, that has to make you less certain that it's a bubble. Even if it's moving, say your overall bubble percentages as it is for me, from like 55%, yes, it's a bubble. To like 40%, it's a bubble. So that's basically where I am. I'm moving a little bit on the margins by trying to answer like a question based on first principles. Is the revenue going to catch up to spending? Last year I thought no, right now I think yeah, maybe.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Wow, interesting.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, speaking of data centers, we have this video that we can start rolling. It's going to be, this is a, this is a data center and you can hear the noise. People may have seen some of these videos going viral on social media. But I'm going to ask a little bit about what this could mean for the bubble question. Actually. Let's roll the clip. Derek. Obviously what we've seen is a cratering political support for data centers around the country. And we could debate whether or not people are correct in some of their assumptions about water and electricity and the like. But the fact of the matter is these are becoming political albatrosses for the companies that have pushed them time and again in different localities. And I'm curious what you make of the question of how much that matters for these companies ability to deliver if there starts to be a real uphill climb just to build these data centers and to get them in action, and secondly, how important the intense political support that these companies are getting from this administration actually is to their ability to deliver and prevent a potential bubble population.

[Derek Thompson]

I have asked a version of this exact question to executives at the top of OpenAI and Anthropic, and I've put it in almost the exact same words that you put it I said, you may not realize this living out in California, but here in D.C. i can tell you that there is a populist wave that wants to shut you guys down, that wants to make it politically impossible to build data centers in the United States, that thinks that artificial intelligence is frankly, as the executives often promise, a kind of demonic force that is guaranteed to displace or disemploy or destroy tens of millions of jobs. And they're going to try to stop you. What are you going to do next? One answer that I've heard is that what they're going to do next is build the data centers overseas, period. And the data centers can be built overseas. Some of them are being built overseas. And if you look at the backlog of data center construction in the US it's quite significant already. So I do think that a data center moratorium, or even maybe less officially, a kind of pointillist, populist backlash to data centers that makes it hard for them to be built in parts of the country, parts of the Rust Belt, parts of the Midwest where a lot of them are coming online, even parts of Loudoun county, near where I Live in Washington, D.C. sort of data center alley. It's absolutely possible that they could find it harder to build those data centers in the US and they're going to have to shift data center construction overseas. I'm not confident that that alone is going to stop the scaling of artificial intelligence. I think it's going to make it harder for it to be built in a place where we control and might have some unforeseen consequences. If, for example, data center construction is shifted to a country, let's say in the Middle east, where we don't have the kind of security over those data centers that we would hope to have in the U.S. what kind of crisis does that create five years down the line? That's an interesting sort of second order consequence. But the answer that I've gotten from the executives is the economic principle to build this stuff is so great that if we can't build it in Kansas and Ohio, we're just going to look at the UAE and Qatar. Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Derek, how does this fit with your abundance framework? I'm really curious. I've seen this huge play, you know, debate play out online. You just mentioned Loudon. They're like, hey, look, we're getting all this property tax revenue from these data centers. But we've also seen much of the backlash if we were to put it together comes down to a few things. It comes down to electricity, it comes down to localism. And really what that means is just control over your area. I also think it comes back to failed promises and failed specifically like promises about, oh yeah, Northern Virginia, where we're both residents. Amazon HQ2, it's gonna come in, it's gonna do. We were gonna throw all these tax breaks. Oh, didn't work out actually. We just ended up up kind of being a boondoggle. None of it really materialized. It's almost like we've heard this from you so many times. It also comes at a time of deep dissatisfaction with the very same companies that are actually building this out, either from social media or others, in terms of the way that consumers feel about this. But you know, from a pure monetary perspective, let's say either abundance or in terms of, let's say long term cheapening energy, I could see why somebody who's operating within your framework would be supportive of it. So how are you thinking about it?

[Derek Thompson]

It's a great question. And the truth is that I'm not exactly sure that I have the perfect answer here. And I'd like you to hold my feet to the fire if you feel like this first answer is not sufficient. But I would like to begin to answer this question of what do we do about artificial intelligence within the abundance framework? Not by looking at AI specifically, but rather by looking at the first two chapters of our book are about housing and energy at the end of the day or really at the beginning of the day at the beginning of the book. What we want to do is make housing affordable and abundant, and we want to make energy affordable, abundant and clean. So what's important to me on energy policy is are electricity prices going way up or are they stabilizing and going down? And right now they're going way up. Well, why are electricity prices going way up? The best economic research that I have seen suggests that data center construction, while an ingredient in the jambalaya of why energy costs are going up, is not the primary ingredient. The primary ingredient is not the exciting thing of artificial intelligence. It's the boring stuff that the the guts of the electrical grid that are necessary to carry electrons from the point where the energy is produced, say a solar farm, to the point that it is being used, say your living room. Those parts are getting more expensive and they're getting more scarce. It's becoming more expensive to build transformers. It's becoming more expensive to import copper wires. It's becoming more expensive to build the electrical grid in the first place. And as those costs go up, as the infrastructure structural costs go up for building electricity in a way that has nothing to do with data centers. Yet that is the primary reason why energy costs are going up. So I would want to solve the energy problem. I would want to meet people where they are and say, do you want your energy costs to go down? If you do, then let's solve for the bottleneck that exists rather than the bottleneck that is sexiest to talk about, which is data centers. To me, that's make it easier and faster to build and cite transformers and the guts of the infrast, the infrastructure of the electrical grid that's on energy, on housing. I have become really concerned by stories like the one that I read in the Wall Street Journal recently that suggests that certain parts of the country that were previously allocated for residential development, for building housing, are being bought up by data centers that to me gets a little bit close to taking land that was previously going to go to people and giving it to silicon. And that's where I do think there might be some tensions between AI, which I'm not like wholeheartedly against, and abundance. I would like to find ways to write local laws that make it more difficult for data centers to buy land that was previously allocated for or is in hot demand for necessary housing. That's a place where I think AI and housing might be at cross purposes. But again, I hope you hear in my answer something that's sort of like I hear that you want to ask one question, which is how does AI fit with abundance? But I really want to focus on what is abundance trying to do? Like, what are the outcomes that we're interested in? We're interested in affordable and abundant housing. We're interested in affordable and abundant and clean electricity for people so that they don't have to worry about energy costs. And I want to solve those problems directly rather than get distracted by AI policy and try to answer the problems by going into the back door of

[Saagar Enjeti]

artificial I actually read before I let Emily answer. I remember reading a Chinese analyst who was like, we don't care about data centers because we just have cheap power. He's like, we don't care, dude. He's like, we have cheap power everywhere. And so as a result, it's not a problem for us. And I think that fits very much in your framework. But I know Emily has a question.

[Martha Stewart]

Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret Getting ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep Paper Just lightly wet the counter beforehand so the paper grips and stays in place. Then lay down the Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper so drips and spills stay on the paper, not all over your kitchen counter. You can roll out dough, prep a party spread, or cook alongside family. When you're done, cleanup is as simple as lifting the paper and revealing that clean counter underneath. Effortless. You can use it for cooking and baking, prep and even crafting, especially when you need extra working space. Because when the mess is already handled, you can focus on what matters the food, the people, and the moment. It may look effortless, but now you know it's Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Take a tip from me. Wet it, set it, prep it. Done. Make it easy. Make it with Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper, available now in the Reynolds Wrap aisle in Walmart, Target, Amazon, and Costco.

[Krystal Ball]

You know what quality feels like. You can see it in the way a fabric moves, recognize it in a flawless fit, and appreciate it in the details that make our styles unique. That kind of quality doesn't happen by accident. It happens with imagination, creativity, and intention. At Coldwater Creek, it's the design standard we've honored for over 40 years. Our rich Mountain heritage has shaped how we think about clothing from the very beginning, with a commitment to quality that never quits. Exceptional fabrics considered design silhouettes, we've made our own the signature touches that set each piece apart and styles that are just distinctively Coldwater Creek For a wardrobe you can count on season after season, visit coldwatercreek.com shop new arrivals and save 15% on purchases $75 or more with code iHeart

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[Emily Jashinsky]

well I was actually just gonna ask like if Matt Stoller were here, Derek, he would wanna also push on the question of corporate power and how you know Ezra's talked about your co author Ezra client has talk a bit lately as well. There are several AI companies. We're not talking specifically just about monopoly, although regionally I guess that might be a different question. But how do you think the issue of concentrated power in the market either undermines or confirms basically the abundance theory that you laid out in the book?

[Derek Thompson]

Well, artificial intelligence is interesting from a corporate power standpoint because on the one hand it is absolutely clear here that if you look at the stock market, stock market returns are overwhelmingly driven by AI companies.

[Emily Jashinsky]

30% of the S&P 500 is Mag 7 right.

[Derek Thompson]

And that feels like corporate concentration. But when I look at AI specifically, I see an industry where there are a lot of companies trying to race to the frontier. It's not yet entirely clear to me that what we're seeing within AI is monopoly power. I see a lot of companies spending an enormous amount of money to make a product that is currently quite subsidized for many consumers in terms of final token prices. And so I don't yet see in artificial intelligence that which we are used to seeing in a classic monopoly. And therefore I'm not sure that sort of anti monopoly frameworks, the perfect frameworks to deal with the power of artificial intelligence. I'll tell you what, I'm more concerned about sort of scoping out beyond frames of abundance versus anti monopoly anthropic in secondary markets. Looks like it's valued somewhere between 1 and $1.4 trillion. OpenAI has talked about going public at near $1 trillion. All of the companies that are building artificial intelligence are worth trillions of dollars. We're walking into a world that's going to have a lot more billionaires. And while I am not ideologically anti billionaire, and I'm not ideologically of the position that all billionaires earn their money through theft and illegal and extralegal means. I do think that the concentration of income among billionaires is very likely going to slow walk us into a world or race us into a world where billionaires are going to account for something between 20 and 50% of all political spending in national elections. The amount of attention and political will that can be bought with that kind of money should make people concerned. It should make us feel like the democratic process is being concentrated among a small number of people who are determining the kind of issues that we debate and the kind of issues, the kind of topics that people choose to run on. That concerns me and I'm not sure where we should begin to solve that problem. I'm not sure how we should, where we should end to solve that problem. But I do think I know where we should begin, which is that one of the first things that the Trump tax credits did is that they reduced the corporate tax rate on C Corps and S Corps, sort of sole proprietor companies. An enormous number of millionaires and billionaires are essentially saw their overall effective tax rate decline by something like $300,000 on an annual basis because of that law. The first thing I would do is roll back that law. And the second thing that I would do is really think hard about the reality that we have right now, which is a lot of billionaires paying a lower effective tax rate than your typical plumber, your typical Starbucks worker. Let's fix that. Let's create a new minimum basic tax rate for billionaires to speak up to the fact that, yes, we're walking to a world where the economy is growing, we're making these new technologies, it's minting billionaires. Those billionaires, I think, certainly need to pay up rather than a world where they account for 50% of political spend and oh, look what just happened. The new political regime just cut their effective tax rates by another 20%. That seems like a world that I don't want to, that I don't want to live in.

[Saagar Enjeti]

My last question for you, Derek. You're always very thoughtful on this is how people are feeling. Let's put E5 up here on the screen. This is from your newsletter about how the 2000s broke our brains. It's the tragic 20s and Americans cannot stop feeling like hot garbage. You point out the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey Job Satisfaction survey is the lowest on record. The General Social Survey and the World Happiness survey found happiness plus plunge in the 2020 has since been mired at levels significantly below previous decades. This is part of where I start to Link AI and where a lot of existential fear comes from, in my opinion, just my own general observation is people definitely do feel like the, you know, being online more and being hyper, you know, fixated and or beholden to technology has definitely been worse for them. Maybe not materially, but emotionally. And this is where a lot of the backlash starts to come from. This is the same thing I talked about with localism. So how are you thinking about that also within this AI framework, not just these new billionaires, obviously that leads to the notion where like, wow, we're really being controlled by all of these people who have just become minted from all across the United States, but also to the very technology that they got rich off of. These two things.

[Derek Thompson]

Yeah, I think this is a really, really important question and it's important to, in answering it that I don't suggest there's any one answer. What we have seen in the 2000 and twenties is basically every single poll suggests that Americans are telling pollsters that they're more miserable than they've been in like the 50 to 70 modern history of polling. And, you know, one way you can frame that question is to say, if America is so rich right now and we are richer overall than we have been in any other decade, then why are we so miserable? And, you know, I think that the answer as to why we're miserable has to do with at least several things. There's several things that were linked both in that, in that tweet and the underlying essay. One is that I think the pandemic never really ended. I think the pandemic never really ended biologically. There's still a lot of people who live with long Covid. I don't think it ended economically because one legacy of the pandemic was inflation. And we still live with inflation. I'm talking to you now. I think just an hour and a half after a new CPI report found that inflation hit its highest level since 2023 and is still going up. And expectations of inflation are still quite strong. We're living in a period after which interest rates, in order combat inflation, rose by their fastest level ever. And one thing that's done is make it significantly more expensive for young people to buy a house if they're coming into the market after mortgage rates went up, rather than boomers who are often living in homes where they're paying an interest rate that was achieved or the end the mortgage rate that they got in the 2010s. So I think there's a lot of envy and a lot of hurt about that. And then also, I don't think you can rule out technology. I think that there were a lot of people in Silicon Valley that promised that our phones and social media were going to connect us in new and wonderful ways. And I think that they connected us in new and horrible ways. I think that phones are bad for us. I think that they are compulsive. I think that they create negative social comparison. I think we have very clear evidence that for young people, and especially young women, they are really bad for anxiety. And for other people, I think they just kind of make us feel like, what did I say in the tweet? Kind of like hot garbage. Like, I don't know, a lot of people who spend hours on their phone and then look up into the real world and say, God, I'm so happy that I spent all that time on my phone. I think we live in, like, a regret economy where we regret a lot of our leisure rather than feel good about it. And that's not good either. Finally, you have AI. And I think, you know, even if use of AI isn't making people miserable, I don't really think it is yet for the most part. Look at the way that the people who are building this technology are talking about it. You know, Dario Amade and Sam Altman making this technology are promising us that it's going to disemploy tens of millions of people. This is an extraordinary way for a technology to talk about the thing they've chosen to devote their lives to build. And it's freaking out a lot of. A lot of people. And at a time of low hiring rates, it's making a lot of young people feel unbelievably anxious about not only will they get a job in the next five months, what about the next five years? What about the next 10 years if artificial intelligence is just going to destroy the bottom of the corporate ladder? So there's all these reasons to feel like the 2000s have been one fucking thing after another, right? Just war after war after war and existential crisis after existential crisis. It's a pandemic. It's climate change, it's artificial int. So, yeah, I think we feel like hot garbage. And I think people are often right to feel like hot garbage. And I'm not going to say they should, quote, unquote, feel better just because we're overall richer. But I do want both commentators and political leaders to speak to this sort of portfolio of concerns, not to lay all of this at the feet of just artificial intelligence or just smartphones or just whatever the interest rate. I do think that the reason the 2000s have been, as I said, the terrible 20s or the tragic 20s, is just the accumulation of a lot of difficult things that have broken our brains. And I hope that people, when they really try to answer the question why we're miserable, speak to all of it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I agree we kept him longer than we originally promised, but he's just so good. Derek Thompson. Derek Thompson Substack down in the description and listen to the Plain English podcast as well. Always enjoy talking to you, man. Thank you.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Thank you.

[Derek Thompson]

Appreciate it. Bye guys.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We went a little bit longer with Derek than originally planned. So the economy segment, Crystal and I can cover that tomorrow. We'll see then Crystal and I on a Wednesday, so get ready for that. Thank you, Emily. Oh, wait, no hands. Keep them glued down on the table. All right, See you later.

[Emily Jashinsky]

See you guys.

[Martha Stewart]

Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret. When prepping for cooking and baking, get ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper. Just lightly wet the counter so the paper grips. Lay it down and drips and spills stay on the paper, not on your counter. Cleanup is as simple as lifting it away to reveal clean counter. Effortless it is thanks to Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Wet it, set it, prep it, done. Available in the Reynolds wrap aisle at Walmart, Target, Amazon, and Costco.

[Krystal Ball]

You know what quality feels like. You can see it in the way a fabric moves, recognize it in a flawless fit, and appreciate it in the details that make our styles unique. That kind of quality doesn't happen by accident. It happens with imagination, creativity, and intention. At Coldwater Creek, it's the design standard we've honored for over 40 years. Our rich mountain heritage has shaped how we think about clothing from the very beginning. With a commitment to quality that never quits exceptional fabrics, consider design silhouettes. We've made our own the signature touches that set each piece apart and styles that are distinctively Coldwater Creek For a wardrobe you can count on season after season, visit coldwatercreek.com shop new arrivals and save 15% on purchases. $75 or more with code iHeart

[Derek Thompson]

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