← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
5/19/26: Trump Calls Off Iran Attack After Military Warning, MAGA Mom Says Trump Abandoned Her
00:44:09
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Commercial Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.
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Krystal Ball
Guaranteed Human
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Krystal Ball
Visit your nearby Lowe's
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what's up y'?
- [00:35]
Caller Janet
All?
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Saagar Enjeti
Sagar and Crystal here.
- [01:55]
Krystal Ball
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
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Saagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [02:08]
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:19]
Saagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com Good morning everybody. Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
- [02:31]
Krystal Ball
Indeed we do. So Trump is saying he postponed imminent Iran attacks. We will Match what he's saying about it with some research, reporting and reality and where we may be headed in light of recent events. We're also going to dig into some new polling from the New York Times. Siena. This has been one of the more, I would say, accurate pollsters over recent years and some truly dire numbers here for President Trump sinking to lows even in terms of, you know, the context of this term or the first term for his popularity. So looking pretty grim there. At the same time, he is stealing from taxpayers to create a new $1.8 billion slush fund for his allies. So that's pretty interest. AI is getting booed at commencement ceremonies across the country. We've got a nice little compilation for you there. Cars for Kids is apparently not at all what we thought it was. That's an interesting one. And a congressional candidate, Chris Raab, is going to join us. It's actually election Day in Pennsylvania and a number of other states across the country. This Philly congressional district has been hotly contested. AIPAC has been funneling money in. There are three Democratic contenders, the very blue seats. So it's going to be whoever wins the Democratic nomination who ends up being the congressman there. We've had Chris Raab on once before and he is going to take a little bit of time out of his busy election Day schedule to update us on the race and what he thinks is going on there.
- [03:50]
Saagar Enjeti
So thank you to everybody who has been subscribing to our YouTube channel. We deeply appreciate it. We also have a huge announcement. Let's put it up here on the screen. We have now, after many, many requests, an official Instagram channel. And I don't know how I feel about my face looming so large there in the graphic.
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Krystal Ball
I hope people are watching this on the poll because it's a lot of our faces.
- [04:11]
Saagar Enjeti
Focus on the middle, on the middle part of that, which is our new Instagram handle, it is BreakingPoints yt, you can search it and there will of course be a link down in the description. So if you wanna go ahead and follow some of the clips of the show or to be able to share it with people, we've toyed with this on and off for several years. But we said, you know what, you know it is, we're living in a clip world so we might as well get with the times. Go ahead, hit go ahead and follow our Instagram handle. And if you, you know, people often are like, oh, I wann a clip or something like that. Here you go. And we will have multiple clips from the show per day that are available there on our official Instagram. So go ahead and check it out. And then of course, if you're listening to this on podcast, please share an episode with a friend. It really helps other people find the show and rate us 5 stars if you're able to let's go ahead and start with this imminent attack on Iran. Let's go ahead and put this up here on the screen. This was from Donald Trump. I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar to hold off on our planned military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran which was scheduled for tomorrow in that serious negotiations are now taking place and that in their opinion as great leaders and allies, a deal will be made which will be very acceptable to the United States of America as well as all countries in the Middle east and beyond. This deal will include importantly, no nuclear weapons for Iran. Based on my respect for the above mentioned leaders, I have instructed the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth and the United States military we will not be doing the schedule of attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to move forward with a large, full scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice. I can tell you that there were rumblings here in Washington from many people, including myself that we had heard that we were going back to war with Iran. As usual, all the caveats were there. That's why I didn't put out anything until it was confirmed and the caveat proved correct. I do think though that one of the reasons why this was called off is in no way why Donald Trump is saying it. The truth is, the actual truth is about what's being said to Donald Trump inside of the White House Situation Room as he itches his way out of this escalation trap. Cuz he's, you know, he can escalate or he can pull back. And with the escalation though comes the continued risk of all of the munitions depletement, of all of the potential, you know, airmen getting shot down. And I actually think that that latter part from this New York Times report is really important. It fits with everything that we've talked about here. So let's go ahead and put a six please on the screen. So here is from a new excerpt from the New York Times. They say Iran has used the months long ceasefire with the United States to dig out scores of bomb ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers and despite significant losses, adjust its tactics for any resumption of strikes. Now they say many of Iran's ballistic missiles were deployed from Deep underground caves and carved out granite mountains. As a result, the United States largely bombed the portals of the sites, collapsing and burying them but not destroying them. They have now dug out a significant number. Iranian commanders, possibly with Russian help, studied the flight patterns of American fighter jets and bombers. The official warned that the downing of the F15 jet last month and the ground fire that struck an F35 revealed American flight tactics had become too predictable in ways that allowed Iran to defend them more capably. And most important, the military said that while five weeks of intensive bombing may have killed several Iranian leaders and commanders, the war has left a more hardened, resilient adversary. That is the actual fundamental truth that belies this entire thing. And we were hearing this all the way up until the end of the war. In fact, I spoke with a couple of very knowledgeable military sources and they pointed out a couple of things. Remember when Trump was going all out against the Houthis last year, they were also able to clip an F35. They shared some of that information with the Iranians because the United States was flying so many air missions. All you do is just sit there and study and study and study and you learn exactly how to shoot them down. That's exactly how the F15 pilot, remember, was shot down. Let's remember that we also lost two air refueling tankers over Iraq. The official story is that something went wrong. Not really what I heard. And eventually I think that we will get the full story behind that. There have been multiple close calls and incidents of people who have been declaring mayday and will do an emergency landing. Again. The military continues to claim that in almost all those cases they were accidents. Again, just not, not the truth. Whenever we see people literally get shot down in some crazy rescue mission that has to be mounted. By the way, where are those pilots? How come we've never, you know, the heroes.
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Krystal Ball
I haven't heard anything else about that.
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Saagar Enjeti
I haven't heard a word. I don't know just from my, you know, we learned a lot about the bin Laden raid after that. You know, basically the names of the shooters and everybody within a year or something like that with most high profile raid or the commander and all that on this one. Nothing, absolutely nothing now so far. So I think that that part also coupled with some new reporting from the Wall Street Journal, we don't have it yet for our show, but they're basically saying that the Gulf allies, when they were asked off the record, they're like, dude, we have no idea what he's talking about. We didn't even know there was going to be an imminent attack that was planned. And there's no deal that is necessarily in the works. As of last night, before any of this even happened, here is where things were A two. Let's put it up here. This was the last official dispatch from Barack Ravid. Iran's new offer is insufficient risks war resumption. That was the latest offer that was made behind the scenes. And at a certain point, don't we all just need to stop denying the reality of these fake transmissions which are allegedly happening behind the scenes? Like, I actually think almost all of this is playing out in public. From what I understand, the Iranians are so bewildered by the constant claims of them making offers that they haven't made, that many of the details of their offers and proposals get leaked almost immediately just to signposts of this is where we actually are to stop the United States or Trump from trying to twist from where things actually. So that's where things stand. We're gonna attack. We didn't attack. He claims it was a Gulf. Gulf says, I don't know what you're talking about. The Iranians say that the last, you know, thing that they transmitted is basically where they were. I think that he basically got scared of what it would look like. But that does not mean that it will actually be forestalled. The other option is, since it is Taco Tuesday after all, is that we wait until, oh, I don't know, Friday, whenever all of the markets close, and that's when things start to resume.
- [10:42]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, well, I mean, that's the issue is the fundamental dynamics have not changed. The status quo is a disaster. Iran's oil wells are not going to explode. We cannot withstand, and the global economy cannot withstand the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, so that the status quo is not sustainable. Coming to some sort of a deal, Trump basically having to take and hold an L doesn't look like something he is ready to do or something that he is constitutionally capable of doing, even though that is unfortunately the best option that is available to him at this point. You can see from the bullets that have been released from the US and from the bullets that have been released by the Iranians in terms of their negotiating positions. They don't have agreement on a single point, and they're light years away from each other on basically every really consequential point. So that seems really unlikely. And then you've got the other possibility, which is resumption of war, which yesterday looked very much like we were headed in that direction imminently before Trump put out this post. And I absolutely agree that what looks like happened here was not our allies coming in and being like, sir, we're so close to a deal, let's just continue negotiating. As indicated by the fact that told the Wall Street Journal, we literally have no idea what he's talking about here, that he got more information from the military. They insisted to him this is not going to go well for you. And I also think it's really nowhere that you're talking about the whole pilot rescue thing and whatever happened there. And we still really don't know why they were there over Iranian territory to begin with, what the actual story is of what was happening, whether there were other plans that were laid there that they had to abandon or abort. But the fact remains that after that rescue mission, that was basically the end of the active hostilities against Iran, of the bombing campaign against Iran. And I maintain that it's because whatever went down there, it was a wake up call for Trump of how much of a disaster, further bombing campaigns and certainly something like a ground invasion, some sort of escalatory move could ultimately be for the US So this reporting from the New York Times that our own military is saying to him, look, these guys have learned they will be, it won't be like before, they will be able to continue to strike. They have most of their missile capabilities remaining and they have gotten smarter about how to target our air assets. That to me lines up with the sequence of events that we have ultimately seen and not whatever he says here about, oh, it was our allies that really begged us. And so I gave in.
- [13:22]
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- [14:22]
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- [15:24]
Krystal Ball
The other thing to say though is that that doesn't mean that we are out of the woods because the options on the table are all still impossible. And he's still gonna have the Israelis pushing, he's still gonna have the neocons pushing and he's still gon own ego to protect. So even if the chances of achieving something on the battlefield that they, you know, with options that have failed in the past, even if the chances of achieving something on the battlefield are incredibly, incredibly slim, that in his mind may be a better bet than accepting the humiliation that would be required to do the deal that's on the table right now.
- [16:01]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I mean, and if you see where Trump is, let's put a three. For example, this is what type of stuff he was saying yesterday. If Iran surrenders, admits their navy is gone, resting at the bottom of the sea, their air force is no longer with us, their entire military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands held high, each shouting I surrender. I surrender. All wildly waving the representative white flag. And if their entire remaining leadership signs all documents of surrender and admit their defeat to the great power and force of the magnificent usa, the New York Times, China Street Journal, Corrupt and now irrelevant. Cnn, China, all members of the fake news media will headline that Iran had a masterful and brilliant victory over the United States of America. It wasn't even close. The Democrats and totally lost their way. They have absolutely gone crazy. But I actually think this is a very important insight because it fits with the Trump interview out of the China summit which he did with Fox News where he basically said look, I don't care that much about the, I don't care that much about the nuclear issue. But at this point the media, I need to show the media that I actually want an Iraqi. I'm paraphrasing obviously that was the obvious insight into his psychology. And I think it's very important. He is just like lbj. He is just like any of these others. I don't wanna be the first American president to lose a damn war. He was of course has to save face of some kind. And he's drawn and put himself think about already where we are on day one of the war. It was, we have killed the Ayatollah. You need to rise up and take back your country. And then it started moving, you know, more and then a total and complete surrender. We want regime change. That's what we want. Unconditional surrender. They must give up of their nuclear program to then we're negotiating literally with the same scions of the regime. We have the Ayatollah who he replaced with the son of the murdered Ayatollah who we turned into a martyr. And then as they point out in the New York Times story, a more resilient command. It actually turns out we killed all the old people who were kind of doddering and a little bit more risk averse and that the new people, they don't even want this ceasefire. Many of the senior members of the irgc, they want to go back to war. That's why a lot of their spend. Remember all those miscommunications where the diplomats would say one thing, the IRGC is like, nope, that's not true. They are not giving up control over the Straits of Hormuz. They are definitely not going to give in on a lot of the things that the administration wants in terms of sanctions relief. Don't forget yesterday Iran launched a new portal for Bitcoin transaction on the Straits of Hormuz with a toll system and a way to make payment. We don't yet know how many people are taking advantage of that. And all the while the US gas price continues to tick up. We're at 453 a gallon, 565 a gallon in terms of diesel. And it's just, it's not going anywhere as long as the Strait remains closed. And especially with all these will they, won't they, in terms of the oil markets that will swing things plus or minus 5%, we are still up 80% from when the war began. That's the flat truth. There's just no getting out of it.
- [19:06]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, that's absolutely right. And let's put a 5 up on the screen because I think this is very, this is another indication of the failure of our strategy. So this is Treasury Secretary Scott BESANT saying the U.S. treasury is issuing a temporary 30 day general license to provide the most vulnerable nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea. This extension will provide additional flexibility, will work with these nations, provide specific licenses as needed. This general license will help stabilize the physical crude market, ensure oil reaches the most energy vulnerable countries, will also help reroute existing supply to countries most in need by reducing China's ability ability to stockpile discounted oil. What does this tell you? It tells you that the notion that our blockade of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would put more pressure on Iran than it put on us and the rest of the world was not true. We are already trying to find little ways to try to control the price of oil so it doesn't get even more out of control because we cannot take the pain. When you say we're issuing these waivers to lift the sanctions in these limited ways, what you're doing is adding more oil into the market. It's a global market. That is the idea is to try to keep the price under control. Now, I don't know if this will be sufficient to keep things from continuing to spiral as it increasingly becomes clear we're nowhere close to making any sort of a deal. But to me it's an indication that this is not going at all the way that Trump had been told by the neocons it would go, that Iran would collapse, that this would be devastating economically for them. We're the ones who are already showing weakness and vulnerability as a result of our own strategy here. And then we really need to do some segments on what's going on with Russia and Ukraine. Cause there have been a lot of changes there in that war, a lot of changes in the dynamics in that war. But Ukraine has actually been holding the front line and making things difficult for Russia because of the advent of drones. And their effective use of drones has made it so they've been able to compensate somewhat for the fact that they don't have sufficient manpower. So that has made things more difficult for Russia to be Able to succeed, you know, in the way that they want to and score an outright victory at the same time. Because of our war on Iran, Russia is now making more money, which is helping to stabilize them because they're, you know, able to sell their oil at a premium. So this has been very beneficial to them in terms of their economy and their war effort. So, you know, this being just one more indication of the way that this has not gone at all the way that Trump imagined that it might. And the way that he was sold on from the neocons who are interested
- [21:52]
Saagar Enjeti
in 100%, that's very important. Yeah. If you're one of these neocons who supports the war with Iran, you just bailed out Russia, you gave them a huge license. They're going to print billions off of these transactions. India, I'm sure, will be buying it tomorrow, you know, because a lot of it is at sea, which has already been sanctioned and it could just sail to port. They can offload, they can sell, and nobody has to worry about any U.S. sanctions. So look, I mean, that's where things stand as of right now with Iran. There doesn't seem to be any counter proposal, any reality of some sort of a deal. I did just see some Israeli report that maybe it could all be a distraction and the strikes would continue. I wouldn't put it past them. I just think though that when you fit it with the market, the fact is you have this Taco Tuesday, which has been long, long held strategy, especially because the market went down yesterday, oil was up a little bit. So Trump reacts. Then he has a couple of days, then there could be a potential tantrum on Friday and then we're right back to where we were and maybe he'll say it was a one time strike and that then they need to come to the table. Who knows whether any of that is true? But it does fit, by the way, with the report that we gave yesterday. Really validates Tricha Parsi, him saying, look, Iran fully believes the war is going back on in 48 hours. And they were right, at least from Trump psychology. That's what we know so far. Okay, let's get to polling.
- [23:20]
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- [23:53]
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- [24:23]
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- [24:55]
Krystal Ball
So Emily takes a lot of calls through the radio show that she does and she's always flagging for us. Some of the interesting comments there. She's been noting recently a lot of conservative Republican triple Trump voters who are calling in and saying they're very upset. They feel, in the words of this one woman who called in yesterday, betrayed by Trump. Let's go ahead and take a listen to what one caller had to say. Heading now to Janet in Long Island.
- [25:18]
Saagar Enjeti
You're on the Megyn Kelly Wrap up show. What's on your mind?
- [25:22]
Caller Janet
I'm Phil abandoned. I'm a Trump die hard. I'm 68. My husband's 69. We're never going to stop working. He's a contract electrician. We built our house. We're going to have to move out of Dickfields because The taxes are $16,000. I don't want to quit working because Medicare is too much money. So I get benefits where I work. He has abandoned the middle class. He has to show us that all those people on bar stools across America, you know, hard working construction guys, plumbers, the people that stood up to him when it wasn't popular to Stand up for him. He needs to help us. Give us back black tax, anything. Just make our life easier.
- [26:00]
Saagar Enjeti
And, Janet, when did you start to feel this way? Was it into the Iran war as gas prices were spiking?
- [26:06]
Caller Janet
You know what? I don't. I just kept waiting and waiting for him to do stuff for us. I feel like he's listening to the wrong people. And, yeah, when he started that war, I didn't sign up for it. When I had my first boy, I'm a girl. I'm a. I'm one of five girls. And when I had my son, the first thing, I popped my head up and said, oh, my God, he could be drafted. I don't want my children or my friends children dying in a war that has nothing to do with us. It's time to give back to the American people that stood up for Trump, when nobody stood up for Trump, when he came down that escalator, when you shouted, he has my voice. He knows exactly how I feel, but he's abandoned us.
- [26:44]
Krystal Ball
And, Janet, I have one more.
- [26:46]
Saagar Enjeti
And I have one more question. Are you sort of a Republican conservative? Are you independent who just really likes Trump? Where do you. Where do you sort of find yourself on the political spectrum?
- [26:56]
Caller Janet
I would say I like truth. Right now. I'm a registered Republican conservative. I don't like all those. All those riots and in all parts of the country. I don't like the, you know, how lax the war, the. What would you call it, legal system is. I want rules and regulations because without them, there is chaos. And I want feedback given to the people that stood up to him forever. And I don't want a war. I don't want my money going towards the war. I don't want me having to pay for gas. So somebody you know in Iran, I don't know what it has to do with the American people. It's frustrating.
- [27:34]
Commercial Announcer
Yep.
- [27:35]
Caller Janet
I don't want to give up on him. I think he's the best thing that ever happened to America. But I'm starting to get really sad and betrayed.
- [27:44]
Krystal Ball
Very interesting. Yeah, very interesting to hear that. She says she feels abandoned. She feels betrayed. She still, she says at one point, I love him. She says, I think he's the best thing that. That have her happen to America. And yet she's also watching one of her friends have a baby be like, my God, I don't want this baby boy to be drafted. I don't know why we're in this war with Iran. He's not doing anything for the people that helped you elect him. So pretty interesting to see someone, even someone who clearly was committed to him, feeling this kind of way and calling in to express it.
- [28:16]
Saagar Enjeti
So when I see a 35 year old who's like, I've broken with Trump, I'm. I'm like, yeah, we'll see, right? Because for me, it's what we were talking about yesterday with the Thomas Massie vote. This is the bedrock of the Republican coalition. Like boomer grandmas, people like this were like, I love, they just sit there and sit in a trance when they watch Jesse Waters on the fuck on Fox News. Literally. Like, you know, remember back in the 90s when like Republican women were putting televisions in the kitchen so they could watch Fox News, like, so they could never. This is a serious thing, I'm not kidding. And like that level of devotion to Donald Trump, that's why I never bet against his control over the Republican Party. It's beyond ideological, it's beyond policy. It's genuinely a cult of personality. And so for them, I never really expected much to shake. But this is interesting. Now, look, it's a single caller, single data point. But.
- [29:10]
Krystal Ball
And you get the feeling, the most noteworthy part, you get the feeling he could win Janet back 100%. She's looking for anything. If he gets out of the war and he sells her some deal on fire, she'll be like, see, I was right about him. He's still the greatest thing that ever happened to America. Janet is still winnable for you, President Trump.
- [29:26]
Saagar Enjeti
Right, but you gotta get out of the war. So, yeah, win back Janet. I do think if cracks like that are where things began, that's where things actually begin to get interesting. Because that's somebody who's like, I'm very dissatisfied with the way the administration. And also demonstrates a lot of people say, oh, nobody's paying attention to the Iran war. Not true. That comment's been about being drafted. There's probably a lot of mothers around America who think that way. Especially by the way, Thomas Massie's opponent just supported a national draft. In case you're wondering for who's true MAGA actually in this race. And not the guy who was like, hey, why are we in this stupid war in the first place? So I think that stuff really matters. I also think that her point around feeling abandoned the bar stool. She's like the people who have always defended you. I mean, one of the things that was the biggest talking points amongst the people, remember below $100,000, who voted Republican was the better under Donald Trump. So when you have a much worse economy or definitely you have like very, very high gas prices, high inflation, that is, you know, it pierces the core argument that a lot of these people would make. And I heard it all the time, it was about screwing liberals. It's like, okay, he did that. But the second part was cost of living. And actually a third part was general lack of chaos around the world. Like, it's true, there were no new major conflicts that erupted under Donald Trump's first presidency. Then Biden came in, there were massive geopolitical earth shaking events. And then when Trump came in, not only are those two still going, but he did a third by choice for literally no reason whatsoever. So that does begin to pierce the veil of a lot of the majesty, you know, and stuff around the first term that people built up in their heads, especially under the chaos of Biden.
- [31:09]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Long island is where she lives.
- [31:11]
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, that is like maga town.
- [31:12]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. But it's also a place that's, you know, relatively high cost of living. So she's certainly gonna be feeling the crunch and the gas prices are quite high there, et cetera. So in any case, let's take a look at the numbers that back up some of what Janet is seeing and feeling out there. Let's put this up on the screen. This from the New York Times, Siena. Their polling has been relatively predictive in the past. For example, they were some of the first polls that picked up on how much Latinos and even some black Americans were shifting towards Trump in the run up to 2024. In any case, his approval is sinking dramatically here. And the first question we've got up on the screen is, do you think Trump's decision to go to war with Iran was the right or the wrong decision? 30% say it was the right decision. 64% say it was the wrong decision. Two thirds of Americans. And let me tell you something, folks, this is very different from previous wars. Typically, Americans get right on board with the latest war that they are being sold. This is very, very different. The Iraq war favorability numbers at this point in the war were sky high. There was a loud, vocal anti war minority, but it was a decided minority of the country. Just to keep this up with Democrats, it's just basically unanimous. That probably won't surprise you. Only 5% say that it was the right decision. 93% say it was the wrong decision. Look at the numbers though, with independents. Only 21% of independents say it was the right decision. 73% of independents say this was the wrong decision. And with Republicans, they overwhelmingly support it. 70% are on board. But, you know, for Trump, Trump with Republicans to have 22% saying it was the wrong decision, that is a notable minority. That's not nothing. Normally with his decisions among Republicans, who at this point, if you're a Republican, you are a MAGA Republican, normally when he makes the decision, basically everybody gets on board with it on the Republican camp. So that is a notable minority there of the coalition that is unhappy with this. Let's go ahead and put B2 up on the screen. We can see some of the numbers inside of, of this poll. So Trump's approval rating now is at 37%. That is a decline of 3 points from the previous poll. And it is the lowest approval rating that this particular poll has found for him in either term. So hitting a new record low for him. Also very noteworthy, you can look on the right side of the screen. You've got his net approval on key issues underwater, on everything underwater. 15 points on immigration, 31 points on the economy, 31 points on what they describe as the Israel, Palestinian conflict, 32 points underwater on cost of living and 34 points underwater on his handling of the war in Iran. And then also very noteworthy, as we head into the midterms, let's take a look at the congressional generic ballot here. It has Democrats up by 11 points. And if you narrow the field, if you narrow the universe of voters here to those who are most likely to vote in the fall, the Democratic lead expands to 14 points. Now, that would be a greater. We've seen a lot of shellackings in midterms both for Democrats and Republicans over the course of our, you know, adulthood. And covering politics from 2010, 2018 was obviously big win for, for Democrats. We have never seen an 11 or certainly a 14 point landslide. That would be extraordinary even in modern terms where we have these big wave elections. And it does line up with what we're seeing in special elections across the country and with the number of Democrats who are turning up to vote in places like Georgia and even places like Texas. So that's why I think it could be credible, even though the numbers are quite extraordinary.
- [35:05]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I mean, sticking with all these polls we talked about, D 11, it would be insane. That's 2008 levels of madness where Democratic senators are in Louisiana. And the thing is, it can happen. It happened in my lifetime.
- [35:19]
Krystal Ball
There's polling that has the, it's one of the Vindman brothers who's running for Senate in Florida. There's polling that has him up there's polling that has David Jolly, who's a former actually was a Republican member of Congress. We switched to the Democratic Party, he's running for governor. There's polling that has him up in Florida.
- [35:35]
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
- [35:36]
Krystal Ball
So now if you're talking about D 11 or D 14, those are the sort of things that are actually in play.
- [35:41]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly. And that's why you can't rule any of this stuff out. Like back in 08 where he had insane outcomes, it was a little different cuz it was before the whole blue. It was during the blue dog Democrat era. But there were also people like Tom Perriello and others, they had no business who were winning and becoming Democrats. Now also in 2010 there were a lot of Republicans who had no business winning either but were lifted because of the tide of a lot of the anti Obama sentiment. So that's what it really looks like in a landslide. Like there will be wins in places that we can't even predict here on the show. That's where everything really is on the table. And I think if we put what is it B3 up here on the screen. Just to reiterate, you know what we're talking about is I think that this -31 on the economy is the central story. Like at the end of the day that is the number one thing that people will be thinking about on top of cost of living. Now last time the only counter to what I say is that this was similar to some of the numbers that Biden had. It's actually lower.
- [36:42]
Krystal Ball
Look at that cost of living -42.
- [36:44]
Saagar Enjeti
The thing is is it was similar to a Biden. Remember people were not happy with Biden over the economy but Biden got saved by the Supreme Court in 2022 on Roe versus Wade. So that is the last that like it's possible to have some sort of black swan style event. We can't predict it. I don't really know what it even be maybe like a great victory quote unquote in Iran celebration and gas goes down by $2 a gallon. I mean I don't think this is possible at all.
- [37:14]
Krystal Ball
I'm just even that I don't think it's going to rescue them at this point.
- [37:17]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm not sure. I mean I think it would be better obviously if it were all the way down. I don't personally see a way out of it. And it's proven now that stock markets can be at all time highs. That's irrelevant. It doesn't matter. What needs to matter is on inflation and on gas. And so outside of a serious like major cultural flashpoint which goes right and really saves, I don't see a way out of this. Yeah, economy and cost of living. Because think about Biden would have sunk if it wasn't for Roe vs Wade. It actually would have been a complete shellacking. The only reason they held on was because of all of the fury around abortion. Even that dissipated by 2024. It was a real flash in the pan kind of style moment.
- [37:55]
Krystal Ball
Well, the other thing that Democrats have going for them is they have gained so much with the type of voters that always show up in midterms. And I think that was the other piece that really saved them in that midterm election. And then it ended up being kind of disastrous cuz that that was what solidified Biden's position and everybody rallied around him and then there wasn't a primary and then he couldn't talk. And you guys all know what happens from there. We end up with Kamala with no democratic process and the whole thing ends up being a disaster. So it probably would have been good for the Democrats ultimately if they had taken some beating in the midterms. It would have been a bit of a reality check. But in any case, it's neither here nor there at this point. CNN's Harry Antin was weighing in on just putting in context how historically bad bad these poll numbers are for Trump. Because even though, yes, Biden's numbers at this point were also pretty grim ever after he withdrew from Afghanistan, that's when his poll numbers really took a dive. And then, you know, the economic concerns mounted and it became increasingly apparent just how feeble he was at that point. And he never recovered from there. These numbers are worse than anything that Biden saw during his term, including on the issues. You know, think cost of living -42. You have only it was what, 20 some percent who said that Trump was doing a good job on cost of living. That means that the Janets of the world, some people who are in not just that, voted for him, but at the core of his coalition, are saying this for cost of living. No, he's not doing a good job. That is quite extraordinary.
- [39:19]
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Krystal Ball
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Krystal Ball
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- [41:03]
Krystal Ball
Let's go ahead and take a listen to Harry Entin putting this in some historical context.
- [41:07]
Saagar Enjeti
Majority of Americans are against this war and regardless of what exactly he did mean, the just, just Democrat, the context matters. But also, here's what also matters. Democrats love that comment. They're going to cut it and put into so many ads before the midterms elections. My goodness gracious. It's a dopey comment from that perspective. And more than that, we're talking about 79% of Americans disapprove of Donald Trump on gas prices. That is the highest percentage that any president has had disapproving them on gas prices. And any question I could possibly find, we're talking about when we're talking about inflation, right? We're talking about the worst polls ever for any president belong to Donald John Trump. That's worse. He's doing worse than harder. He's doing worse than Joe Biden did in his last term. When you put it all together, you just go, man alive, man, what are you doing?
- [42:02]
Krystal Ball
And he makes a good point there too, about that comment that Trump made and doubled down on about I don't think about America's financial situation at all. The fact he said that out loud is insane. I mean, he's right. That is going to be repeated over and over again. As it should. As it should. Because I think he's telling the truth. I don't think that factors in for him. I think he's worried about some of the politics. I think he's looking at the markets. I think he's feeling some pressure. But at the end of the day, is he thinking about like you going to the gas pump and looking at the bill and going, oh my God, I don't know if I can keep doing. No, he's not thinking about that. He's right. He's not thinking about that at all.
- [42:39]
Saagar Enjeti
No, it's not even about thinking about. It's in the totality of where the position has been taken on Iran, which is that it's all about him saving for face. It's also, you know, I keep thinking this is really important. Biden and Carter didn't suffer as badly because objectively it wasn't 100% their fault. Carter did not cause the Iranian revolution. Now they didn't know it was gonna happen. And that's a failure. It's a scandal for sure, like with the CIA, but they did not cause the Iranian revolution. Like, they did not cause the Arab countries to boycott the United States. Right? Like they were not directly involved, involved in doing that. Biden, for all of his faults, did not say, yeah, go ahead, Putin, invade Ukraine. Like, Putin invaded Ukraine, not Biden. Now I don't think we should add any of those sanctions BS in the first place. That's on Biden, in my opinion. But Putin's price hike was enough for a lot of brain dead Americans to say, okay, it's not our fault or it's not his fault. Right? This one, like, it's literally your fault. Like it's your fault. You did this, is that it was here and now it's here. You decided to invade and created this entire mess. That's part of the reason why it's nearly as bad as Iraq. And I remember reading a lot of the post analyses of Iraq. And one of my favorite biographers, I actually got to talk to him before he died, Gene Edward Smith. And he said Iraq is the worst foreign policy mistake in the history of the United States at the time. This was prior Iran. And I was like, how could you say that? And he's like, look, with Vietnam, we got dragged in, but it was never as much of an explicit war of choice. Wars of choice he took told me are always in a completely different category than being dragged in or morasses of international situations which get you pull in. And so for Trump to choose this war and then to have such an explicit signpost that we've now all seen for. I mean it's almost three months. We're 10 days away from a three month anniversary of this entire thing. That's what, a quarter of a year it gone evaporated all of this order that's. I mean we're gonna get into the catastrophe scenario. I just read a post this morning of a guy who just went to Somalia. He was like, I've never seen anything like it in terms of the food shortage and what it will mean in terms of purchasing. He's like we were gonna have a full blown mass famine in Africa.
- [44:51]
Krystal Ball
Right. Well and also because we pulled all the aid for donuts.
- [44:55]
Saagar Enjeti
It's both but it's the World Food Program.
- [44:56]
Krystal Ball
It's a combination of those two things. And there's also because of the climate crisis, there have been droughts and extreme weather that has also caused problems for crops around the world, including here. That's why we covered that wheat yields here are gonna be the lowest since the like early 70s because of this extreme weather that we've had here as well. And that's before you even get into the effects of how expensive fertilizer is now and how much that is gonna reverberate throughout. So yeah, the World Food Program is saying somewhere around 43 million people could be pushed into acute hunger because of this confluence of horrible events. You know, the leading edge of which now is this war of choice with Iran. And people know that like it's. No one is out there like, gee, I wonder why gas prices are going so high. Everyone knows why they are paying what they're paying at the pump. It is no mystery. There's not some confluence of it. No, it's because Trump decided to do this really dumb thing that we did not want. That's why prices are high and everyone knows that. We also wanna take a quick look at actually put B6 up on the screen. Cuz this again connects to what I was just saying about the Iran war. 58% in this poll for the Institute for Global affairs, the Eurasia Group, 58% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling the war with Iran. I think that's actually a little bit better than numbers were for the New York Times, but still quite bad. But look at this one. 79% of Americans say the war has affected their cost of living. At least some more than half, 62% say it's become harder to pay the bills in the past six months. 80% of Americans, Americans, no, they are seeing the way that this war has affected their cost of living. 80% of Americans. And everyone knows that Trump and Trump alone made this decision. Maybe they're telling us, oh, Israel dragged him into it, whatever. But at the end of the day, he's the big boy that made the decision and the blame lies at his feet. Last piece here, which is just interesting to take note of the way that public opinion has shifted so extraordinarily on our dynamic with Israel is but beyond up on the screen, this is also from that New York Times Sienna poll. So they asked this question, in the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians, which side do you sympathize with more, Israel or the Palestinians? Palestinians, actually narrowly, but still very significant, beat out Israel 37% to 35%. And the rest say they don't know or they, you know, both equally effectively. That is such a sea change, I cannot even tell you. I mean, it has never Palestinians have never come anywhere close to the sympathy Americans have had for Israel because of the overwhelming propaganda that we have been fed here. And just the assumption, oh, Israel's our ally, they're the good guys, period, end of story. Now dig in here, Biparti. Democrats, forget about it. It's overwhelming. 57% say Palestinians. Only 17% say Israel independence. It's also quite significant edge for Palestinians, 44% versus Israel, 29 for Republicans, though. And this is what we were talking about yesterday and our concerns about Thomas Massie and whether he'll be able to pull off his primary victory today, it is still quite overwhelmingly in favor of Israel. And so I think this important reality check in terms of how much the shift has really occurred within the Republican party, you've got 66% of Republicans saying that they sympathize more with Israel and only 9% saying they sympathize more with Palestinians. So still overwhelmingly, the Republican Party is a pro Israel party. That doesn't mean there hasn't been significant splintering. And, you know, some factions, especially I would say online factions that have taken a very different view of things, you know, the Tucker Carlson's of the world, the Marjorie Taylor Greene's of the world, et cetera. But still, if you look at the party as a whole, a party that is dominated by older voters, they still have the traditional view of Israel, Israel and still stand with our alliance. And want to send them weapons and all those sorts of things.
- [48:49]
Saagar Enjeti
It is purely generational and that is the most important thing. On Republicans, the 66% support of Israel is almost entirely backstopped by overwhelming support amongst older voters. For everybody who's younger sub 40 or 50, it's either 50, 50 and once you get to the 18 to 35, it's like basically nonexistent. Especially whenever it comes to Palestine and Israel. Remember it's always gonna be a bit different. Like for a lot of liberals, this is a humanitarian issue. For a lot of American, like, okay, sorry. For a lot of Republicans, younger Republicans, it is a nationalist, it's a nationalism issue. It's intolerable to have people like Miriam Adelson and Paul Singer and these people just try to come in and bomb Thomas Massie with hundreds of millions of dollars in all these super PACs and all these other things which it's basically like taking away your autonomy. So it's always gonna be different about who do you sympathize with or not? But the net effect is actually gonna be very similar in terms of cutting Israel off from foreign aid or treating them like any other country. That's a nightmare for them. It's literally a nightmare. But I do think it's an important distinction just to explain for why that number. Cuz there are people who I know who support or sympathize with Israel, but are like, listen, even if I sympathize, like I can't be having having you people write my laws in Georgia on bds. Like that's intolerable.
- [50:10]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, that's fair. But I would say, look, unfortunately I think Laura Loomer is closer to the average Republican voter than like Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- [50:17]
Saagar Enjeti
No, no, no question.
- [50:17]
Krystal Ball
In terms of her views, in terms of her Islamophobia, in terms of her lockstep, we gotta support Israel no matter what. I think that is more reflective of where the Republican base is at this point because it is a party that's dominated by like Boomer, Fox News, Facebook.
- [50:31]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [50:32]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [50:32]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm not denying the truth. It's true. I'm more talking about, talking about to the extent that there's a generational split and you were to ask a younger Republican why they don't support Israel, you will get a very different answer actually than necessarily if you were to go to some Gaza pink hair protester. Like they're living in a totally different universe from where they are. And that's fine, I don't care. I'm just explaining for what that, how that would manifest itself in some polling, and what the future of that may look like.
- [50:58]
Krystal Ball
Yes, I completely agree that it comes from a very different place.
- [51:18]
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