5/21/26: Iran Stuns Trump With Red Line, Trump Indicts Cuba's Castro, Bezos Speaks Against Taxes

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar – Episode Summary

Date: May 21st, 2026
Hosts: Krystal Ball & Saagar Enjeti
Guests: Ryan Grim, Juan David Rojas
Highlighted topics: Iran’s nuclear red line and repercussions for Trump, DOJ’s indictment of Raul Castro, Jeff Bezos’s critique of taxes, economic updates, and Big Tech labor and AI developments.

Episode Overview

This episode delves into major developments in US foreign and domestic politics: a stunning new red line from Iran’s Supreme Leader affecting Trump’s diplomacy, the Department of Justice indictment of Raul Castro, Jeff Bezos’s public stance against higher taxes, and related economic and tech stories. The dynamic panel interrogates the political realities and hypocrisy underlying these events, weaving in sharp, anti-establishment commentary and listener-friendly media literacy tips.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iran’s Nuclear “Red Line”: Supreme Leader’s Stance vs. Trump

[03:11–14:40]

• Breaking News: Iran’s Supreme Leader issues a directive that all nuclear and enriched uranium material must stay in Iran—a direct rebuff to Trump’s number one demand.
• US & International Response:
  • The directive “throws a real wrench in the White House’s plans” (Saagar, 03:16).
  • Trump’s position has hardened—he refuses even the proposal to send uranium to Russia or China.
  • Previous willingness for inspections and downblending (under IAEA) is now off the table.
• Analysis:
  • Trump’s own rhetoric has backed him into a corner.

    “Trump basically left himself no negotiating room whenever it came to the nuclear issue where he said, no, we are going to take it all.” – Saagar Enjeti, [18:52]

  • Reuters is credited for accurate, credible Iran coverage—media literacy matters.
  • Trump’s framing is obsessed with “optics and public relations,” not substantive security guarantees (Ryan Grim, [08:45]).
  • Pessimism abounds that any meaningful deal can now be reached, with observers noting a “Groundhog Day” repeated pattern of brinkmanship leading to war (Ryan Grim, [16:56]).

Notable Quotes

• “This is a huge middle finger to probably the number, number one nuclear demand that Donald Trump has made from the outset in this entire war.”
  — Saagar Enjeti, [07:40]
• “Trump has repeatedly said that the issue is public relations, that the issue is optics … If the actual goal is to make it so that the surrounding countries, by which they mean Israel, are safe from any kind of nuclear threat from Iran, downblending under IAEA inspection would be plenty.”
  — Ryan Grim, [08:45]

Timestamps

• [10:53]: Trump, on negotiations with Iran: “Very right on the borderline. Believe me, if we don’t get the right answers, it goes very quickly.”
• [12:01]: Trump: “I’m in no hurry. I just, ideally, I’d like to see few people killed as opposed to a lot. We can do it either way, but I'd like to see few people killed.”

---

2. Effects on Markets and Financial Uncertainty

[21:26–25:24]

• Rising Costs: 30-year Treasury yields reach 5.19%—highest since before the financial crisis. Oil prices hover above $100/barrel.
• Impact on Regular Americans: Higher borrowing costs mean costlier mortgages, stagnating real estate activity, and pain at the pump.
• Bond Market as Political Force: The bond market’s panic previously forced policy hand (on tariffs); now it’s another arena where “Trump doesn’t have unilateral control except for a total surrender.”
• Stagflation Looms: The show warns of a return to “1970s nonsense”—simultaneously high inflation and economic stagnation.

Notable Quotes

• “We’re headed to stagflation and basically just 1970s nonsense.”
  — Saagar Enjeti, [24:10]

---

3. US Policy Toward Cuba: Raul Castro Indicted

[29:31–46:52]
Guest Segment: Juan David Rojas

• Summary of DOJ’s Indictment: Raul Castro (94) and others indicted for conspiracy to kill US nationals—in connection with the 1996 shootdown of Brothers to the Rescue planes.
• Historical and Contextual Background:
  • The Brotherhood to the Rescue’s history as both a humanitarian and, in some eyes, provocateur organization.
  • Multiple violations of Cuban airspace by the group.
• Timing and Politics:
  • The move is widely viewed as symbolic and designed to appeal to Miami’s anti-regime Cuban-American community.
  • Trump's “roundup” and deportation actions are unpopular among key constituencies, so this may be electoral posturing.
  • The deployment of the Nimitz aircraft carrier to the Caribbean escalates tensions, raising fears of a Venezuela-style intervention or negotiations for regime concessions.

Notable Quotes

• "We’re really pushing the limits of hypocrisy in the region now…"
  — Juan David Rojas, [31:13]
• “Presumably they’re trying a similar kind of playbook to Maduro. You have these charges against the head of state … most of this, it’s symbolic. It’s just meant to appease people in South Florida.”
  — Juan David Rojas, [34:13]

Notable Moments

• [39:00]: Saagar breaks news on-air that “The Nimitz aircraft carrier has actually just entered the Caribbean.”
• [44:21]: Exposé on $100 million in supposed humanitarian aid to Cuba—mainly as a Starlink play for Internet access, not food or medicine.

---

4. Jeff Bezos Publicly Opposes Higher Taxes & Deflects

[50:15–62:44]

• Bezos CNBC Interview:
  • Argues doubling his taxes “is not going to help that teacher in Queens.”
  • Blames government intervention, not Airbnb or Amazon, for high rent.
  • Frames debates around taxation as unproductive “sleights of hand.”
• Panel Response:
  • Hosts deride Bezos’s arguments as “naked and disgustingly cynical,” pointing out his move to Miami to avoid wealth taxes, and his years of benefiting from public subsidies.
  • Ryan Grim’s research: Amazon has received $15 billion in government subsidies.
  • The elite’s interests in tax breaks and automation are dissected (“for them, human beings are a huge problem for Amazon” – Saagar Enjeti, [62:05]).

Notable Quotes

• “You could double the taxes I pay, and it’s not going to help that teacher in Queens, I promise you.”
  — Jeff Bezos, [50:54]
• “The sheer mediocrity also of their thought process and then the nakedness of what it’s all about.”
  — Saagar Enjeti, [59:34]
• “That’s why … what they want more than anything is to replace their entire workforce with humanoid robots and with AI. That’s it.”
  — Saagar Enjeti, [62:05]

---

5. Big Tech AI Layoffs & Corporate Cynicism

[62:56–67:46]

• Meta (Facebook) Layoffs:
  • Lays off 8,000 employees as it pivots hard to AI, with remaining staff “drafted” into AI projects.
  • Mark Zuckerberg’s leaked audio: The company seeks to train AI on the skills of its smartest employees—before automation eliminates their jobs.
• AI’s Social Impact:
  • A dystopian picture of high-skill labor being cannibalized to train the very algorithms that will replace them.
  • Labor organizing is suppressed as leaders target complete workforce automation.

Notable Quotes

• “He says it out loud. I’m gonna keep my best employees so the AI can learn from them. And then eventually, why do we even need you anymore?”
  — Saagar Enjeti, [66:47]
• “Learn to code – actually, no, Krystal says Learn to nurse.”
  — Saagar Enjeti, [67:38]

---

Most Memorable Moments and Sharp Commentary

• “This is a huge middle finger to probably the number, number one nuclear demand that Donald Trump has made…”
  — Saagar, [07:40]

• On Raul Castro’s indictment:
  “We’re really pushing the limits of hypocrisy in the region now."
  — Juan David Rojas, [31:13]

• “I want them [billionaires] to be brilliant because then I live in a slightly fair world.”
  — Ryan Grim, [51:47]

• On AI layoffs:
  “For them, the Earth is a plaything in and of itself. Going up to space with Katy Perry is, like, the top achievement of their life. It’s no longer about what actually happens down here.”
  — Saagar Enjeti, [62:05]

---

Quick Reference Timestamps

• Iran nuclear red line analysis: [03:11–18:52]
• Financial market impact: [21:26–25:24]
• Cuba/DOJ news with guest Juan David Rojas: [29:31–46:52]
• Bezos interview and billionaire tax hypocrisy: [50:15–62:44]
• Meta/Big Tech AI layoffs: [62:56–67:46]

---

Tone and Takeaway

The hosts maintain their signature fiercely independent, anti-establishment tone, mixing sharp-edged skepticism, sarcasm, and deep policy insight. They challenge powerful actors across political and corporate spheres, spotlighting the disconnect between elite rhetoric and reality for everyday people.

For listeners seeking honest, cross-ideological, and unsparing news analysis—with plenty of memorable lines—this episode is a must-listen.

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Guaranteed Human During Memorial Day at Lowe's

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

shop household must haves for less. Save $80 on a Char Broil Performance Series 4 Burner Grill to chef up something special plus get up to 45% off. Select major appliances to keep things fresh. Our best lineup is here at Lowes Lowes. We help you save valid through 527 while supplies last selection varies by location. See Lowes.com for details.

[Krystal Ball]

Visit your nearby Lowe's

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures what's up y'?

[Saagar Enjeti]

All? Summer's got a different tempo.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Everything's a little looser, brighter. One plan turns into another.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You hear something, you stay a little longer. Next thing you know, you're somewhere you

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

didn't plan to be. It's those in between moments.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's where the ideas hit. Conversations stretch out. Little memories sneak up on you. Sometimes it's just about what's in your hand. That color.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

That chill.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The new Tropical Butterfly Refresher from Starbucks.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Guava and Passion Fruit flavors with Mango Pineapple Flavored pearls. Yeah, that feels like summer before you even taste it. Funny how one small stop becomes the best part of the day. Start your summer rhythm with Starbucks.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Try the new Tropical Butterfly Refresher from Starbucks. Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive

[Krystal Ball]

role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

[Krystal Ball]

If that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a

[Saagar Enjeti]

member today and you'll get access to

[Krystal Ball]

our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com. good morning everybody. Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. Bro show. Good to see you, Ryan. Let's do it. Let's go. People are so lucky they had two subsequent back to back days of Ryan Grimm.

[Ryan Grim]

What more can you ask for?

[Saagar Enjeti]

What more could you possibly ask for? All right, let's come up on me. We are gonna start with Iran. We are gonna talk about this new statement from the Iranian supreme leader declaring that all nuclear material, including the enriched material, must stay in Iran. It throws a real wrench in the White House's plans as initial talks and things looked potentially optimistic with some new 30 day memorandum of understand a continued ceasefire before an eventual end to the war. Ryan and I are going to break all of that down in addition to some news about how Iranian drone production has been increasing. Second is Cuba Raul Castro, is he 94 or 95? Don't want to get caught.

[Ryan Grim]

I thought 95, but I think people have been saying 94.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So 94 year old brother of Fidel Castro.

[Ryan Grim]

94 years young.

[Saagar Enjeti]

94 years old. He has now been indicted by the Department of Justice for an alleged murder plot station stemming decades ago. Obviously a pretext for potential invasion. We're gonna be joined by our friend Juan David Rojas to break some of that down and to actually give us insight not only into the alleged crimes here of Castro but into the South Florida cabal that continues to run our government. We are gonna talk about Jeff Bezos new interview he just gave to CNBC in which he says that his taxes could double and it would not help any teacher in Queens. We are also gonna talk about a new incident that happened in is the minister of National Security Itmar Ben GVIR was seen harassing flotilla detainees aid flotilla. Many of them have western passports. It has ignited a major international incident despite Ryan. They do this literally every day but they do it to Palestinians. This time around they did it to some people with western passports and they did it on camera which I guess has never really mattered in the past, but this time it was both of those things where even the prime minister is like, this does not represent our values. It is amusing because it would be like Trump saying, todd Blanche, the Attorney General does not represent the government of the United. You're like, wait, hold on a second. What? How does that work?

[Ryan Grim]

Like, one guy gets caught insider trading. Trump is like, that does not represent our values.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That does not represent our values. We are also going to cover a Tucker Carlson interview on Israeli television. Extraordinary interview. Something that Israelis have not seen in quite some time. It's called the Truth about what's actually Happening in Their own. And then Ryan's got a monologue about Chuck Schumer. I don't even wanna give too much away. It is the most Ryan Grimm story of all time. And then finally, we have a prerecorded interview. The Steyer campaign reached out to our very own Griffin Davis, producer. Griffin, who lives in Los Angeles, and he sat down for a pressing interview with the gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer, the billionaire candidate. He pressed him on a variety of different issues, running the gamut from him being a billionaire himself, why people trust him, some of the issues that he's currently having with Spencer Pratt, the rise there in Los Angeles, how he would govern the state, how he would handle Donald Trump. And impressed him on the issue of Israel as well, by the way. Steyer is the one who made that into an issue himself. And so Griffin really got him on that. I think you guys should check it out. And Griffin looks extra smashing in the suit which he bought after I invited him.

[Ryan Grim]

Shaved the stash.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He looks incredible. Let's just give Griffin his flowers here. The power of the suit can elevate literally anything. I'm joking. Griffin is a very, very handsome man. Okay, please hit subscribe.

[Ryan Grim]

Looks more handsome with a suit.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He looks more handsome with a suit. As do you, Ryan. As do you.

[Ryan Grim]

Thank you.

[Saagar Enjeti]

All right, hit subscribe to our YouTube channel, please. And if you're listening to the podcast, please share an episode with a friend. Let's go ahead and start with what's happening in Iran. Let's go and put this up here. This is the latest breaking news. Reuters. Iran's supreme leader has now issued a directive that the country's near weapons grade uranium should not be sent abroad. Two senior Iranian sources said hardening Tehran's stance on one of the main demand. So this is by far, Ryan, the biggest sticking point of the entire deal. Not even potentially even more so than the Strait of Hormuz where the Iranians have shown some level of flexibility because effectively what this New directive from the Supreme Leader says is, number one, this cannot be questioned, cuz it's coming from the Supreme Leader. So that means this is policy. This is the policy that has been set out too. Trump has said actually that all of the weapons grade uranium, in fact all of the uranium has to not only be taken out of Iran, but they would not even accept it being sent to China and to Russia, which previously had been floated here. The Supreme Leader is drawing a complete red line, saying it is not leaving the country, period, which means that they will retain some level of control over it. They have offered in the past to downblend their uranium under IAEA inspections. And I know this can sound a little bit technical, but the bottom line is this, it is a huge middle finger to probably the number, number one nuclear demand that Donald Trump has made from the outset in this entire war.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And just for a little media literacy, Reuters has been very good on its coverage of Iran. They do have sources in the Iranian government. They haven't fallen for all of the different losing the football moves that the US has tried to play here. So, and this is being done publicly. So this is, I think, you know, this is credible reporting that we can, that we can talk about as actually bearing out.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

Which is a thing we have to do when it comes to this war. Very good flag, unfortunately. But yeah. So Trump has repeatedly said that the issue is public relations, that the issue is optics. Like this is directly from Trump. He says that he has said so many times that he's going to get the nuclear dust, as he keeps calling it, that he needs to get the nuclear dust. He has set up his own kind of trap that the only way out is he's got to get it. And he has said just, he has said, psychologically, I would feel much better if I got it. That's not a very persuasive kind of argument or motivation from one side of the debate that you have to do it because you said you were going to do it. If the actual goal is to make it so that the surrounding countries, by which they mean Israel, are safe from any kind of nuclear threat from Iran, downblending under IAEA inspection would be plenty. Iranians agreeing just not to enter the facility, you know, where it's currently kind of under rubble, would also satisfy that. Taking it to a third country, Russia, as was done in the 2015 JCPOA, would also satisfy it. But President Trump, while that was sort of on the table, like, you know, it was kind of floating as a possibility. President Trump Never once grasped at that. He never once said, oh, okay, Iran, this was a way out. Iran seems willing to move this to Russia. I can say the Gulf countries want me to end this war. Liv Golf is struggling. We got to get back to the basics and we're going to end this. That was on the table now, the new supreme leader. There was regime change, apparently, according to Trump, is saying, no, that's. No, that's no longer. That's no longer on the table. So now we have to see how Trump handles this kind of humiliation.

[Saagar Enjeti]

As of last night, Trump had said that we're right on the borderline. Let's take a listen. After you said yesterday you're about an hour away from making a decision.

[Krystal Ball]

Where does that stand today?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Have you heard anything from them?

[Donald Trump]

Very right on the borderline. Believe me, if we don't get the right answers, it goes very quickly. We're all ready to go. We have to get the right answers. It would have to be a complete, 100% good answers. And if we do, we save a lot of time, energy and lives. Most importantly, how long will you wait? Could go very quickly or a few days. It could be a few days, but it could go very quick. Iran is a defeated nation. We're dealing with some people, and we're dealing, actually, I must tell you, we're dealing with some very good people. We're dealing with people that are, I think, far more reasonable than the people that are really no longer with us. We're dealing with some people with talent, with good brain power, and we're pretty impressed by it. So hopefully those people will make a deal that's going to be great for everybody.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So at that time, he's gassing them up. At the same time, though, he says, I'm not in a hurry. I'm not in a hurry at all. Let's take a listen to that. On the Iran deal, would you be

[Krystal Ball]

open to a limited deal that just

[Saagar Enjeti]

covered the Strait of Hormuz?

[Donald Trump]

What does that mean on Iran?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Just a limited deal, just for a longer ceasefire.

[Donald Trump]

We'd have to open the Strait, that would open immediately. So we're going to give this one shot. I'm in no hurry. You know, everyone think, oh, the midterms, I'm in a hurry. I'm in no hurry. I just, ideally, I'd to like to see few people killed as opposed to a lot. We can do it either way, but I'd like to see few people killed. I just wonder whether or not they have the good of the people, because Some of the things they're doing to me means they don't have the good of the people and they have to have the good of the people.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Not in a hurry, not in a hurry at all. So maybe, maybe not again. Now, speaking of media literacy, many of you should know this one. Let's put it up here on the screen. New Iran proposal triggers tense Trump, Netanyahu call from Barack Ravid over at Axios who gets very testy if you point out his previous IDF military background. But anyways, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed a new effort to reach a deal with Iran in a difficult call, three sources said. One source said Netanyahu's quote hair was on fire after the call. So at first I'm like, hey, maybe this is a good thing. So here's what they say. A revised peace memo was drafted by Qatar and Pakistan with the input from the other regional mediators. The outline of the deal is a memorandum of understanding. Ryan the memorandum of understanding would lead to a 30 day ceasefire even though this current ceasefire has been longer than 30 days. A gradual reducing of the US naval blockade and allegedly like Iranian lack of control over the Straits of Hormuz, some sort of sanctions relief in the immediate term like a 25% unfreezing. However, it does require the Iranians to make at least some pre commitments to an eventual deal on the nuclear file. This just doesn't really fit with a lot of what we've seen out of them. I do especially want your analysis here with Pakistan. Let's put the next one up here on the screen because they are the linchpin in this entire thing. This is from the Pakistani media. They say Pakistan on behalf of several regional countries is trying to convince Iran to restore the strait to its pre war status. At the same time, Trump has told the Gulf countries were ready to reset ties with Iran if it seizes the current opportunity and signs a deal. Tehran has to make a final call within the next two days. So we do know that that's kind of happening at the current moment. There were some original reports Pakistan was gonna the Pakistani, who was it the army chief was gonna go fly to Tehran, present this deal, make it into a whole big thing. But then the news of the Supreme Leader announcement that came out this morning kind of throws a wrench into this whole thing.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Support for the show comes from public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously on public. You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures protect

[Krystal Ball]

your pet with insurance from Pets Best Plants start from less than a dollar a day. Visit petsbest.com Pet insurance products offered and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services LLC are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company or Independence American Insurance Company for terms and conditions, visit www.petsbest.com Policy products are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company, Independence American Insurance Company or Ms. Transverse Insurance Company and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services LLC. $1.00 a day premium based on 2024 average new policy for accident and illness plans. Pets Age 0 to 10 this is

[Martha Stewart]

Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart Podcast. Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret. When prepping for cooking and baking, get ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Just lightly wet the counter so the paper grips. Lay it down and drips and spills stay on the paper, not on your counter. Cleanup is as simple as lifting it away to reveal clean counters. Effortless it is thanks to Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper. Wet it, set it, prep it done. Available in the Reynolds Wrap aisle at Walmart, Target, Amazon and Costco, as people

[Ryan Grim]

have been pointing out. Axios published by Barack Ravid. Almost identical stories In June of 2025, right before the 12 day war started, and then again in February of this year right before this ongoing war started. So when some people saw that article like, oh wait, I've read this twice before and I know what follows. War resumes, right? And perhaps the Iranians are tired of this pattern and are kind of throwing in some type of new variable Here, because otherwise it's like Groundhog Day. Like Barack Ravid promises, Netanyahu is furious and that Trump is on the brink of reaching a deal with them. And then there's a surprise attack and they, you know, they kill all the, as many politicians and military figures and middle schoolers as they can. As they can in like a short period of time. The, this new fatwa about nuclear power, is it even a fatwa?

[Saagar Enjeti]

I don't know. It's a directive.

[Ryan Grim]

It's just a directive. I don't think it's a fatwa.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I'm not, yeah, I'm not enough of a Shia religious scholar to tell you the difference.

[Ryan Grim]

I mean, the bigger difference would be harder to climb down from a fatwa than a directive. Directive. Issue a new directive. It shouldn't logically be that big of a deal because there are so many ways for you to ensure nuclear non proliferation or make sure that inspections are robust enough. Especially because, as Trump has repeatedly said, they devastated the entire program. They killed all of the scientists. It's literally buried under rubble right now. As he says, we have seven cameras on it, watching it at all times. That's true, they do. So what are you freaking out about? Like, so a deal should be there. But I don't know with the way that's pretty pessimistic.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think people should be pessimistic because in the way that Trump has talked, Trump has actually trapped himself twice, ironically. So he did the escalation trap where he didn't defeat Iran. And so now he has only two options, surrender and, or basically escalation. The other trap that he made is he basically left himself no negotiating room whenever it came to the nuclear issue where he said, no, we are going to take it all. And so, so those two things is way past the jcpoa and actually Iran in a stronger position now because of their drone threat. Their ability to sustain and survive an onslaught of the full force and might of the United States empire. Well, you also have, you know, the neocon faction here in the United States. Let's put a six up here on the screen. Here is Lindsey Graham in only the way that Lindsey Graham can. It's a subtweet with the, you know, belligerent praise here at the top. I believe President Trump has done a brilliant job in weakening the Iranian terrorist regime to the. The lowest they've been since 1979. Hats off to our commander in Chief to all who serve under his command. Like everyone, I hope for a diplomatic solution. Yes, but it must be Comprehensive to ensure Iran is no longer the largest state sponsor of terror. It must be real. Negotiations must be reliable. I appreciate everyone's efforts. And now he says, I'm hearing the Pakistan's Field Marshal may travel to Iran. What could go wrong? Maybe he'll report the status of Iranian military aircraft being housed on Pakistani air bases. Like so many, I'm watching very closely what unfolds. Yet again another effort to reach a deal with the Iranian regime. I wish all involved success, that it is real. Very obviously thinly veiled subtweet in this entire thing. And I think what it demonstrates to everybody is that Netanyahu, Bibi, the Iran war lobby, Mark Levin and others, if you just watch all of their communications over the last 72 hours, they are freaking out as if the deal is real. But they also are laying the ground to make it so that when he resumes the war they can claim that this was the correct policy. And also it demonstrates they'll say, oh well, by Trump drawing the lines where he has, they can say, oh, Iran's not negotiating in good faith when in reality like this was never on the table from the beginning, after the war, before the war, it's just literally never existed. If you want to go and take the nuclear dust, if you will, then you're gonna have to go and get it. The consequences us for here at home remain immense. Let's put the next one up here. You actually flagged this one, Ryan. 30 year treasury yields have now topped 5.19%, the highest since before the financial crisis. Is that good? Anyone wanna tell me, is that a good thing?

[Ryan Grim]

Who's that good for? I'm trying to think who that's good for.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So they said. Rates following a string of reports suggested inflationary pressures were re accelerating as rising oil prices tied. The conflict with Iran pushed costs higher. The development has spooked fixed income investors and caused traders to bet that the next move by the Fed could actually be a rate hike instead of a reduction. What that means is that this is elevated borrowing cost for the government and for everyone. So this is gonna affect credit card rates, mortgage rates. The bond market, remember, is what originally forced Trump's hand whenever it came to the tariffs. This time around it's a little bit different. He doesn't have unilateral control except for a total surrender. So you have the financial markets where they are kind of ignore the stock market at this point, which is Basically just all OpenAI and SpaceX mania and AI literal AI mania in the stock market. But if you look at the bond market, you look at the oil market, let me see, where's gas at as of today? 4,56 a gallon. That's like $0.03 higher than when I checked it a couple of days ago. Diesel 565. I mean it's just, it's hovering there. Bloomberg analysis came out this morning. The median base case on Wall street is that oil will remain over $100 a barrel for at least the next year. So what's that, about 4 bucks a gallon? Something like that. So yeah, good luck. We're all gonna be paying that for quite a long time. It's not just gonna be a blip. A blip or a short excursion. As Trump continues to say, and Brent

[Ryan Grim]

is down over the last couple of weeks as this ceasefire has kind of held. Yes. So that, that flies right back up if he starts shooting again. Imagine if the United States government, with the world's most powerful military and a very powerful economy is paying 5 point almost 2% for a 30 year note. What are you going to pay when you go to the bank trying to get a mortgage? You don't have a military unless you have something, I don't know you got going on over there. You don't have the world's most powerful economy behind you. You can't print money to pay it back. So you're going to be paying well into the sixes, five, six pushing seven, which completely seizes up our real estate market because you can't afford your mortgage. Then if you go out, you know the house that you're going to want to go out to buy, it's going to cost you a lot more per month and then you're going to be stuck in your apartment.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, it's extremely ironic too because Trump just appointed this new Fed chair whose entire directive was to low. And now the traders are like, no, he's actually gonna have to increase rates based on where things are right now,

[Ryan Grim]

which will draw things even more chaos.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right, so we're just gonna. Yeah, we're headed to a stagflation and basically just 1970s nonsense. And then finally I wanted to get this in here, just came out this morning. Let's put a 8 up here on the screen. Iran is now actually rebuilding the military industrial base faster than expected and is already producing new drones according to US Intelligence. This is just the latest in a slew of weapons. Well, they've dug out all their missiles actually. They're very resilient, actually. They still have all this, actually they still have the capacity like if we go back to it, it's gonna be the exact same thing, maybe worse, actually, because this time around, they know how things went the first time. They've studied it all the US aircraft would be more at risk based on the new tactics that they've used. I mean, the US has studied it too. There's gonna be some changes that they've made. I actually, interestingly enough, I don't know if you've seen this. Have you seen all these drone cages going up all over the uae? So, I mean, this is gonna be the new world that we live in, is that every critical piece of infrastructure will have a hideous cage, a hideous metal cage that surrounds it, just to block a drone from being able to smash in. Obviously, a missile still would be able to, but those are much easier to hit than a $20,000 drone. But I did want to flag that just in case hostilities.

[Ryan Grim]

Your five star hotel with this little cage around it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Imagine that. Right, and so that's kind of a

[Ryan Grim]

beautiful fountain with a cage around it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, a gorgeous fountain. Yeah. Imagine the Gap guests at the Dubai Fairmont or whatever, whatever their ship hotel is, the seven star hotel, I forget the name of it. Or the Burj Khalifa, but with the. The Burj Khalifa looks a little different, doesn't it, whenever you've got a cage that runs up the entire side of it.

[Ryan Grim]

A cage on your balcony.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. Don't think it's going to help the Dubai cratering real estate market or the hotel occupancy rate or Dubai International Airport. Look, flagging all this because hostilities could resume at any moment. If they were to resume, in Trump's mind, it would be a limited strike. Now, in Iran's mind, it wouldn't be. In Trump's mind, it would be a limited strike. And so if he were to do it, it would happen over the weekend, I think, because the oil markets and the stock market couldn't react and he would want some chance of being able to go in and then stop before markets were able to open on Monday. But look, that's where things are right now. And in a very strange deja vu, we can now turn to Cuba to talk. It feels like only yesterday we were talking about the kidnapping of a Latin American dictator and the potential conflicts coming with Iran. So, yeah, wow. Three months later and we're exactly the same. We've got our good friend Juan David Rojas standing by. Let's get to it.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously on public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc, SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures protect

[Krystal Ball]

your pet with insurance from Pets Best Plans start from less than a dollar a day. Visit petsbest.com Pet insurance products offered and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services, LLC are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company or Independence American Insurance Company for terms and conditions, visit WW www.petsbest.com Policy products are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company, Independence American Insurance Company or Ms. Transverse Insurance Company and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services LLC. $1.00 a day premium based on 2024 average new policyholder data for accident and illness plans. Pets Age 0 to 10 this is

[Martha Stewart]

Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart Podcast. Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret Getting ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Just lightly wet the counter beforehand so the paper grips and stays in place. Then lay down the Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper so drips and spills stay on the paper, not all over your kitchen counter. You can roll out dough, prep a party spread or cook alongside family. When you're done, cleanup is as simple as lifting the paper and revealing that clean counter underneath. Effortless. You can use it for cooking and baking, prep and even crafting, especially when you need extra working space. Because when the mess is already handled, you can focus on what matters the food, the people and the moment. It may look effortless, but now you know it's Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Take a tip from me when it set it prep it done, make it easy. Make it with Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper available now in the Reynolds wrap aisle in Walmart, Target, Amazon and Costco.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Very excited now to be joined by our friend Juan David Rojas. He is a independent journalist. He's got his own substack, social democracy with populist characteristics. Our resident Latin America expert. So Juan, you're here to talk about what's going on between the United States government and Cuba. The White House released this propaganda video yesterday indicting Raul Castro, age 94 years old. Let's take a listen. Today we are announcing an indictment charging Raul Castro and several others with conspiracy to kill US nationals. This is a story all too familiar. On February 24, 1996, two civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue were shot down over international waters by military aircraft from Cuba. Four men were killed. Carlos Costa, Armando Alejandra Jr. Mario de la Pena and Pablo Morales.

[Jeff Bezos]

They were unarmed civilians and were flying

[Saagar Enjeti]

humanitarian missions for the rescue and protection of people fleeing oppression across the Florida Straits.

[Jeff Bezos]

As alleged in the indictment, Raul Castro

[Saagar Enjeti]

and five co defendants participated in a

[Jeff Bezos]

conspiracy that ended with Cuban military aircraft firing missiles at those civilian planes and killing four Americans.

[Saagar Enjeti]

All right, Juan, that's the story. What's actually going on here?

[Juan David Rojas]

So some important context. And that announcement was made in Miami in Freedom Tower, which is an icon down here. You know, we're really pushing the limits of hypocrisy in the region now. I mean, by this logic, you know, we've extrajudicially killed like 200 alleged narco terrorist, a lot of which, you know, they've not given us any evidence for that. By the same logic, basically how many countries, you know, could indict Trump for like these killings? Beyond that, as far as the incident itself in 1996 with Brothers to the Rescue. Brothers to the Rescue, the head of it, Jose, was, it was a self professed former CIA operative who participated in acts of terrorism on the island. Up until the 90s there were bombings conducted by Cuban exiles on the island. Horrible, horrible stuff. There's a long history of exile terrorism here in South Florida, including of other exiles that were viewed as like not sufficiently anti communist enough. But so Brothers to the Rescue, however, was a humanitarian organization. They would like try to find,

[Donald Trump]

you

[Juan David Rojas]

know, people fleeing the island on like these small rafts or whatever. The issue was that they had violated systematically like 20 times Cuba's airspace. And so finally the Cuban government decided they've given them multiple warnings and they'd also been warned by the Clinton administration. But Ultimately, yeah, the Cuban government took those planes down. They were technically in international waters when it happened. But that's. Yeah, that's all the context.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Got it.

[Ryan Grim]

And Cuba is, to this day disputes that they were in international waters. What do we know about, like, exactly where they were at that point? Because some of the planes had actually flown over Cuba's landmass. These do seem to have certainly been flying over water and not land mass. So that's not in question. What do we know for sure about where they were?

[Juan David Rojas]

The reporting I've seen is that at the time when they were struck down, they were in international waters. I mean, you know, there's oftentimes dispute of, as different countries say that. No, actually, what is international water? Right, international waters, but that. It's also true, however, that in the same flights they had violated Cuban airspace. So just because they were shot down when, when, when in the specific moment when they were shot down, doesn't mean they hadn't that same day violated Cuban air cities.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Zooming out a little bit here, Juan. What are we doing? We're indicting Raul Castro. He's 94 years old. This alleged incident took place, what year was it? 96 or 98?

[Juan David Rojas]

96.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So I was four years old, I'm now 34. So is that 30 years ago, whenever this allegedly happened? So why do it now? Is this the Venezuela playbook? What is the impetus for trying to do this? How does it fit with the broader Trump administration approach to Cuba?

[Juan David Rojas]

I mean, it's, you know, we can only speculate, but, but presumably they're trying a similar kind of playbook to Maduro. You have these charges against the head of state. Maybe, you know, they're negotiating with the regime. They might try to get to some sort of arrangement where they handle. Try where they ask for them to hand over a Ro Castro. That seems unlikely, but most of this, it's, it's symbolic. It's just meant to appease people here in South Florida. I mean, you heard the applause cause, and I've said this for a while, I think a lot of this is an electoral strategy because Trump's approval is cratered with the Latinos, even a lot of Latin Trump, Latino voters, Latinas that voted for Trump, he's lost like half a third of his Latino voters since then. So in this way, I mean, even in South Florida, we talked about this, I think last year, even among Cuban Americans, the immigration, especially the deportation policy is extremely controversial. There was this insane case of this Trump supporting Cuban national who was deported to A maximum security prison in Eswatini. He did have a criminal history, but, you know, this is, you know, for Cubans, the thought of like being deported to a third country. That's insane. To a maximum security prison. So, yeah, I see this as them trying to salvage support among a key voting base here in South Florida. And you talk to a lot of, you know, rank and file, what I call Miami neocons down here, and yeah, they'll say that they're not fans of the immigration policy. And, you know, there's been a lot of back and forth between Maria Vira Salazar, representative down here, who's pushed for the Dignity act, that MAGA is called Amnesty. But she's obviously very hawkish against Cuba, Venezuela, etc. So, you know, a lot of people will tell you it's like, yeah, I don't really like the immigration stuff, but he's going to liberate Cuba, so that's great.

[Ryan Grim]

And while he's talking about liberating Cuban Cuba, at least two Cubans have died in immigrant detention centers since. Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course, his roundup. But let's hear from Trump directly on his latest about his interest in freeing Cuba. Let's play B3 here.

[Donald Trump]

I have so many Cuban friends in Miami, mostly in Miami and Florida. And they're unbelievable people. They're unbelievable entrepreneurs and they'd like to go back. I think hopefully they're going to want to live here, but they want to go back. Maybe they'll invest, we'll see what happens. But we're freeing up Cuba.

[Ryan Grim]

And he said, my Secretary of State, he's even from there, which is sort of true, but he was born here, put up before Marco Rubio directly appealed kind of to the Cuban people in a kind of Spanish language address, kind of urging them to overthrow their government. What was the message that Rubio sent to kind of the people of Cuba through that Spanish language address?

[Juan David Rojas]

Yeah, that was a stunning bit of propaganda. Yeah, he gave the whole speech in Spanish. And look, I'm a fervent critic of both neoconservatives and the Cuban regime, but I think there are things we can blame both of these factors, actions for. Like any good propaganda, Rubio mixes truth with lies. And so, you know, it is true. A lot of the Cuban elite, they live extremely comfortably in Madrid. Gaeza like, it's, it's this conglomerate that controls a lot of enterprises on the island. It's basically this regime slush fund. They, like pocketed the billions that they got from Venezuela during the 2000s and, and just have used it, you know, like I was the. In. I've been in Cuba three times. I was last there in 2024. And even in 2024, they were like still building hotels knowing full well that, you know, no tourists were coming in. It was just a form of cronyism. So, you know, some of that is true. On the other hand, you know, he says it's not our fault that you're suffering. You know, they, they talk about an oil embargo, sanctions, whatever. No, it's all the Cuban regime. They're the reason why you're suffering. They're the reason why the power is going on. That's completely ridiculous. Obviously the blackouts have to do with the fact that we're not even letting third countries, Russia, Mexico send oil to the island, their energy grid. Sure, you could argue that, you know, decades ago they could have improved it. And you know, now supposedly they're getting help from China building solar panels. But the reality is that, and he talks about the Bahamas, if we were doing this to the Bahamas, obviously we could do this to any island country in the world and they would not survive.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. Juan, there's some latest news I actually want your reaction to. We can put this in post production. The Nimitz aircraft carrier has actually just entered the Caribbean as you and I are speaking. They say the carrier arrives in the South Caribbean on the same day the Justice Department announced charges against Raul Castro. One of the general rules, Juan, that we have at this point is when the carriers go, usually military action of some kind follows. At first it was there to pressure Maduro, then we ended up using it. Then it was there to pressure Iran, then we ended up using it. Now we've got the Nimitz there, they say, well, it may not engage in direct combat operations. But of course, that same aircraft carrier, US Naval assets, were used as a staging ground for the kidnapping raid of Nicolas Maduro. Now, how do you expect the Cuban government to respond? Would it be a Venezuela style thing? They accept it, Basically, they have some successor. Raul Castro is 94. You wanna put him on trial, whatever. All right, give us oil relief and then we can all sail off into the sunset. Or do you think that they would resist?

[Juan David Rojas]

It's hard to say. I mean, you know, and you know, we can look at Venezuela. It's clear that a lot of the people in charge, like, you know, it's only lip service that the, for, you know, the ideology, they're really willing to do whatever to stay in power, to stay in power. Maybe in Cuba, a Lot of the more radical sectors would not be willing to give in. I mean, here's another thing Rubio talks about. Oh, you guys have rejected reform. That's true in the sense that like, like Russia, China and Cuba's own economists have been telling them to follow, like, the Chinese and Vietnamese models for a long time. And you, you know what, like the Escane will say, it's like, oh, they weren't subjected to the same kind of embargo that we were. But the. So, yeah, like guinea and all that. There are entrenched sectors like in any other country that are just vehemently opposed to change. But as far as military action is concerned, you know, the reporting drop site has done a lot on this, that in, in the government, they are willing to negotiate exactly what, you know, concessions they're willing to give. It's hard to say now, as far as the Nimitz is concerned, which UFO fans, you know, we know about the Nimitz, but in this case, yeah, like you said with Iran and with Venezuela, honestly, I'm going to be, I'm going to be real. We, we, we could seriously expect to see some sort of military action in the future. The problem is once you, you know, you've dedicated so many and pushed so far rhetorically, I mean, especially down here, if they don't end up doing something, they're going to face some backlash.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Interesting.

[Ryan Grim]

And I wonder what it means, because in Venezuela, Maduro was the undisputed kind of leader of the country, whereas in Cuba, power is a lot more kind of diffuse. Like Diaz Canal is technically in charge. He's fairly weak and unpopular leader. You know, I think the pressure that he's come under has, you know, paradoxically kind of increased his stature a little bit, at least among the kind of cadre of the rest of the leadership of the Cuban government. But there are plenty of people who have their own fiefdoms there that, you know, report to Diaz Canelo, but not really. And then you've got Raul Castro this, you know, aging, you know, he's no longer in power, but kind of everything's thrown world still can sort of run through him. And so it doesn't leave you the same button to push like you had in Venezuela. Like, okay, let's say you grabbed Diaz Canel. What has that actually achieved? Let's say you grab Castro, but you leave Diaz Canal, grab them both, but you left all the various committees in place, or does none of it matter and Trump just needs, needs some sort of something.

[Juan David Rojas]

Yeah, that's A great point. And you know, I think that Trump would be more willing to come to, to come to some sort of arrangement with the regime. And you know, like I said, like Ruby was saying, oh, you know, we want you guys to open up. He's full of crap. Like what he wants his regime change and, and that's a fundamental problem. You know, I, I wrote a recent piece for New Lines where there's a part where I compare like the Israel lobby to, to the Miami lobby. Look, you know, like the Israel lobby, like they don't really care what happens in Iran. Like, you know, they'd be fine with a failed state, state collapse, any, any kind of stuff like that in Miami. They want full on regime change and they will not settle for anything else. So you have some sort of Delta Rodriguez type situation in Cuba. Maybe that would work for Trump, but it's not going to work for people down here. They're not going to. And a lot of Trump's government, especially with regards to hemisphere policy, is staffed by these Miami neocons, a lot of the ambassadors, close friends of Rubio that are in charge. And so yeah, last, and, and it's hard to say that the difference between Cuba and Venezuela is that, you know, Cuba is a one party state. They don't have a formal opposition. Like Venezuela has, you know, the trappings of like democratic institutions in, in Cuba the government controls everything.

[Ryan Grim]

So speaking of drop site reporting, one little funny piece to leave you guys with. We can put up B5 here. There's been all this talk about this hundred million dollar offer of humanitarian aid that Rubio has made to Cuba. He has said, you know, they're sort of not willing to take it. We looked into it. Sources told us the aid effectively amounts to about $100 million worth of Starlinks that they want to send onto the island and Cuba. I mean Rubio has at times referred to this as quote, food and medicine, but in other statements has acknowledged that it's actually about fast and free Internet. So you know, we'll, we'll see whether or not Musk's, you know, Musk's SpaceX ends up becoming a player in this as well. Do you have any final thoughts on this, this bizarre hundred million dollar offer of humanitarian aid that is coming at the same time that we have a blockade around the island?

[Juan David Rojas]

Yeah, I mean it's clear, yeah, they, you know, they, who knows what's exactly in their head, but they're probably thinking, oh, if we can get more Internet to people on the island, especially if it's not controlled by the government. We can spur some sort of uprising. Oh, and but one last thing, actually, I sent this to both of you guys. Bloomberg reported yesterday, hours before the indictment that what was the name of it? This Canadian mining company. Oh yeah, which is like the, the last one opera. It has like a cobalt mine on the island. They were going to pull out last week. They announced they were leaving Cuba because of additional sanctions we put on the Cuban government. And they reversed yesterday, saying that they were going to give a stake to a Trump ally. So yeah, it looks like, yeah, Trump. And there's been this big push, you know the recent meeting between Trump and Lula from for critical rare earths and all that are critical minerals. So amazing.

[Ryan Grim]

You just gotta get your Trump cronies in there and we're good.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Love it. Yeah, we'll see how the Florida guys like that one. I won't lie, I'm a laugh my ass off, Juan, if they end up having Raul Castro. But then the regime becomes like filthy rich and we basically strike some sort of a deal and they're like, wait, but that's not what we wanted. I'm like, oh, oops. No takesy backsies.

[Ryan Grim]

Don Trump Jr gets a casino.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Until you have Trump Jr the Cuban government will issue an exclusive casino license to Donald Trump Jr. And that will be how this entire thing ends.

[Juan David Rojas]

Could be.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Could be.

[Juan David Rojas]

Yeah. The lobby would have to stand for it, right?

[Saagar Enjeti]

All right, thank you very much for your time. We appreciate your analysis.

[Ryan Grim]

Thanks guys.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, Crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers, growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comdisclosures the following

[Krystal Ball]

ad is sponsored by Pets Best Insurance Services. You knew right away he's perfect. The one for you. Those puppy dog eyes, that cute little button nose. You don't even mind the drool. When you find your perfect match in a dog or cat, the love is unconditional. Your budget, on the other hand, has realistic limits. Help protect your heart and your wallet with pet insurance from Pets Best. With plans starting from less than a dollar a day, you can get up to 90% cash back on eligible vet bills. Pets Best makes it easy to pick a plan that works for you and your banking account. Find the perfect match for your Perfect [e-mail] Pet insurance products offered and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services, LLC are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company or Independence American Insurance Company for terms and conditions, visit www.petsbest.com. policy products are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company, Independence American Insurance Company or Ms. Transverse Insurance Company and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services, LLC. $1.00 a day premium based on 2024 average new policyholder data for accident and illness plans. Pets Age 0 to 10 this is

[Martha Stewart]

Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart Podcast. Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret Getting ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper Just lightly wet the counter beforehand so the paper grips and stays in place. Then lay down the Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper so drips and spills stay on the paper, not all over your kitchen counter. You can roll out dough, prep a party spread or cook alongside family. When you're done, cleanup is as simple as lifting the paper and revealing that clean counter underneath. Effortless. You can use it for cooking and baking prep and even crafting, especially when you need extra working space. Because when the mess is already handled, you can focus on what mattersthe, food, the people and the moment. It may look effortless, but now you know it's Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Take a tip from me. Wet it, set it, prep it, done. Make it easy. Make it with Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper available now in the Reynolds Wrap aisle in Walmart, Target, Amazon and Costco.

[Ryan Grim]

Jeff Bezos sat down with cnbc, which usually gives us some pretty good content. Let's but let's take a look at just a little bit.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And Elizabeth Warren has made this point repeatedly. I think she's made reference to you and others are able to pay a lower tax rate, even though you're paying an enormous sum in taxes. A lower tax rate than maybe I am.

[Jeff Bezos]

People sometimes say that. That, you know, I don't pay taxes. So true. I pay billions of dollars in taxes. And it's a perfect. Again, if people want me to pay more billions. Right, then let's have that debate. But don't pretend you know that this. That that's going to solve the problem.

[Juan David Rojas]

You could.

[Jeff Bezos]

You could double the taxes I pay, and it's not going to help that teacher in Queens, I promise you. This is. So you can't connect those two things. Not logically. You know, there. There are more examples. Why is rent expensive? Why is rent so expensive? I recently saw somebody blamed it on Airbnb. Okay. Airbnb is not the cost of expensive rent. In fact, it's been almost finished here. One sec. It's already been outlawed in New York City, and rents are still very high. So we know airbnb isn't causing high rents. What's really causing high rent is government intervention.

[Ryan Grim]

So Mayor Mamdani shot back at that. He said, I know a few teachers in Queens who would beg to differ. But yeah, more to the point, Sagar, then we can get to some more of his comments. I hate finding out how average these guys are.

[Saagar Enjeti]

100%.

[Ryan Grim]

I want them to be brilliant because then I live in a slightly fair world. Yeah, still unfair, but at least they are brilliant.

[Saagar Enjeti]

But they're brilliant in a way that is not all that interesting. As in optimizing Amazon prime and delivery service. If you want to read the book, you should. The Everything store is quite good. 2013, the actual history of Amazon. But what we often find out is that being extraordinarily good at one thing often doesn't make you particularly good at everything and may in fact be inverse in terms of your ability to be a good citizen. So let's break this down. Jeff Bezos says raising his taxes will not help anyone. You could double the taxes I pay, and it's not going to help that teacher in Queens, I promise you. Under the current system, he may not be wrong. Under a different system, he might be entirely wrong. And what's really funny about this is that they're all couching this. And I've noticed, you know, Chamath and all these others are celebrating where their new idea is that the bottom 50% of Americans should pay zero income tax. Cause they're like, well, they only make up 3% of total taxes, so they should pay nothing. First of all, that's a terrible idea. But second of all, because a. I mean, it's a terrible idea. And look, just kind of go through why, even though, quote, it only is 3%. Well, we've talked a lot about this. One of the reasons why having property tax or income tax or any of these things is that you actually literally have a stake in the system. Now, I agree that the percentage that they're paying is not in any way semi meaningful, let's say to federal revenue, but in this case, the problem. And by the way, at the same time, when saying that we should cut those three, he's also like, you shouldn't tax me more. So if we were gonna make a trade, I'd be like, all right, fine. But that's not really, really what he's talking about. What they're really talking about is they're trying to effectively say that paying taxes of any kind for the poor and for the rich is not actually inherently good and or doing anything for society. This is a broad scale war. And you've seen this now with all of Bezos's individual actions. So since he formed Amazon and exited as the CEO, what has he done? He moved to Miami. Why? Cause he's from there? No.

[Ryan Grim]

Okay.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It's because of the Seattle wealth tax. That's the reason. So he's like, well, I gotta claim to this also. What has he done in his post CEO age? He's injecting testosterone. He's marrying this woman, Lauren Sanchez, partying at St. Bart's Aunt Yachts, which, okay,

[Ryan Grim]

give $100 million to Van Jones, right?

[Saagar Enjeti]

And also giving $100 million to Van Jones and like the Obama foundation or whatever. It's like, dude, you are doing absolutely nothing. And the whole ethos is he just doesn't wanna pay any more taxes. Like, it really is that simple. When you look at the Washington Post and their whole, what do they call free markets or free expression? It's bullshit. Like, look at what? The stuff that they actually care about and some of their more recent hires. It's like libertarians who are talking about why privatizing Social Security would have been a good thing. I'm not even joking. That's like one of the more recent hit columns that they've had had over there. That's all he cares about. He just doesn't wanna pay any more taxes worth some $224 billion. And it's a cynical move that they're adopting where they're saying they're trying to tie their taxation status to that of the bottom 50% of Americans. Right. That's what this whole thing is actually about. And then notice he talks there about government control. You and I are not NIMBYs. We probably don't even disagree about that Airbnb thing. But look at the sleight of hand where he's like, taxing me will do nothing more for you. And it's like, yeah, maybe under the current system, but that's not really what we're talking about, is it?

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And it. I was just checking. It would cost about $200 billion to double every teacher's salary for a year, and he's worth way more than that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It's worth 224something, whatever the Amazon market cap is as of today. No, you're absolutely right in terms of, you know, teachers pay or salary. But part of the reason that this really makes me angry is that what they fund. By the way, he just moved to a state which wants to do what? Eliminate property tax. Oh, what, what was that? The thing that actually pays for the school. Oh, right. Oh, yeah. And by the way, how much did this house cost down there? Like $100 million. Some ridiculous sum of money. That's the whole scheme. They just don't want to pay anything. Because if you were to say, all right, Jeff, you don't have to pay any more income tax, we're just going to quadruple your. Oh, we can't do that. You know, we can't have any of that.

[Ryan Grim]

And the reason they're right, that there's an increasing amount of the tax burden that has gone to the very richest by percentage. The reason for that over the last 40, 50 years is that all of the wealth and income are flowing to the very top. So they're the ones that have it. So it sucks that 3% or whatever of the revenue comes from the bottom half. But why it sucks is that we want the bottom half to have more wealth and income.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Also, it is a sleight of hand in the sense of the bottom 50 making up three. Because what does it ignore? FICA. Right. Everybody has to pay FICA, especially at the lower. In fact, FICA is in terms of the percent chunk. Whenever you're bottom 50, it's pretty high.

[Juan David Rojas]

Right?

[Ryan Grim]

Because you stop paying after the price,

[Saagar Enjeti]

because you stop paying because of the cap. So of course, everybody ignores all of that one. So in terms of the cap, they're paying percent wise and even dollar wise, like what a much more meaningful amount than, let's say, Amazon CEO or somebody else whose W2 income might be, I don't know, 500,000, 600,000. Not to even mention all the capital gains breaks that they get at the 15 and 20% for where they are. And I think that, look, it's all just so naked and disgustingly cynical when you pair it with this next clip of him just like fawning over Donald Trump. Let's take a listen. When I last interviewed you.

[Jeff Bezos]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

About two years ago, President Trump had just won. He was not the president yet. And I had asked you what you thought of him at the time, and you said that you thought that he had mellowed, that he was calmer.

[Jeff Bezos]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And I'm curious now. Here we are.

[Jeff Bezos]

Yeah. I still think that two years later. Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We've had lots of wars and tariffs and all sorts of things that have

[Ryan Grim]

happened, happened since then.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What do you think?

[Jeff Bezos]

I think he has. I mean, I'm comparing him to his first term, and I think he is a more mature, more disciplined version of himself than he was in his first term. And, you know, so he's. Again, I've. I've worked with all the presidents. I will work with all the presidents, you know, and I hope to do that going forward, if they'll have me. But it's. We. We need our business leaders to provide input into the. The administration, regardless of who the president is.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I want to.

[Jeff Bezos]

I'm not on the side. You know what this is. I'm on the side of America. And I. And that is so important. Like, and that's where business leaders should be. It's just.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think they're not.

[Jeff Bezos]

No, I think. No, I think we are, but we get perceived as being, like, you know, partisan or whatever. Like, I was helping Obama every chance I could. I was helping Biden every chance I could. I still call Obama for advice. He's a very smart guy. And, you know, and by the way, people that are. Trump has lots of good ideas and he's done a lot of. He's been right about a lot of things. You have to give him credit where credit is due.

[Saagar Enjeti]

First of all, he was closer with Obama because he wanted to pay more tax. Are you guys seeing the. There's a through line here. $100 million to the Obama foundation in 2018. What a bunch of money to Van Jones. What was it like, the genius prize? The Bezos genius prize. It's just.

[Ryan Grim]

So whatever happened at a million dollars.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Exactly. It was used to produce Instagram shorts by. Why Hasan Piker is a threat to the United States.

[Ryan Grim]

And you need dialogue with Hasan Piker. And then refuses to talk to him.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It's so foolish, the whole thing. I don't know, Ryan. It's like you said, just the sheer mediocrity also of their thought process and then the naked of what it's all about. And you know, he even said, I think we have this, that line about

[Ryan Grim]

too much corporate wealth, corporate welfare. That's C3.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Okay, let's take a good one, we'll talk about it.

[Jeff Bezos]

We have way too much corporate welfare, way too much corporate subsidies. We have. There's way too much influence in politics from business, in some cases wealthy people who really focus on that.

[Ryan Grim]

You.

[Jeff Bezos]

There's a bunch of people interfering in the political process. And if we can make that better, we should do that too. That would be another root cause. We go back and figure out what is happening there.

[Saagar Enjeti]

There's too much corporate welfare. Yeah, yeah. Too much government interference. Yeah. Unions.

[Ryan Grim]

What.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What was that?

[Ryan Grim]

Dang. Union.

[Saagar Enjeti]

They're so naked.

[Ryan Grim]

How many corporate subsidies does Amazon get?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Here's the other thing too. They're so big that they actually don't. It's like Tesla, remember with the EV credits, they didn't want them anym. They're so big that they don't want a driving industry. So in the beginning, sure, they were happy to take them. But I also was just thinking about this too. Whenever that we talk about taxes and all this, like I'm on Pro America. And more recently, one of the reasons why a lot of these billionaires have taken an explicit, even more libertarian turn is because what they want more than anything is to replace their entire workforce with humanoid robots and with AI. That's it. That's literally the entire project. Because it will massively enrich them and they won't organize. They don't. Yeah, that's what. Unions are a huge problem for them. But beyond even humans, human beings are a huge problem for Amazon. Like for real. They do not want guys in blue vests driving all across America. They want drones. And yeah, they either want drones or robots. And then in the factory, humanoid pickers are, you know, are very inefficient. Cause they have to go to the bathroom once in a while. And so they want all of it to be automated as much as humanly possible. They don't even like hide this stuff. They say it out loud. They celebrate firing people. Like they don't want more humans to actually work for them and they want all of that wealth to accumulate into their pocket. That's why it's not an accident that he's sitting there in a space factory because for them, the Earth is a plaything in and of itself. Going up to space with Katy Perry is like, you know, it's like the top achievement of their life. It's no longer about. About what actually happens down here.

[Ryan Grim]

And according to more Perfect Union, over the years, Amazon has received about $15 billion in government subsidies. So maybe the deal for Bezos could be this. Okay, you become a multi deca or centibillionaire. At that point, you gotta pay back the billions that you got in subsidies. You're worth 225 billion. You got 15 billion in subsidies to help you get to becoming worth more than 200 billion. Give us the 15 billion back.

[Saagar Enjeti]

There you go.

[Ryan Grim]

And then we'll give it to teachers and we'll see if the teachers actually appreciate having more money or not. He thinks they won't. I think they will. Let's find out.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right? And yeah, I just wanted to give a little shout out there to all my friends in Florida who are still basically advocating for this boomer tax break of no property tax. This is who you're working for.

[Jeff Bezos]

Okay?

[Saagar Enjeti]

So this is the reality about what you're actually trying to give a break to are people who are only using your state as a tax address in south beach and making it impossible for any like any normal family or any of that who would ever. Or even a young college spring breaker. I hope your dad has 5,000 bucks because otherwise it's not happening for right now because of this. Not that they won't care because they'll be scammed by Ron DeSantis into thinking it's something somehow a good thing for them. It also. Let's pair this with this Meta story. Put this up here on the screen. Meta, as I was talking about human, you know, human beings are very inconvenient for all of them. Meta lays off 8,000 employees as AI casualties mount. Employees have signed petitions against being tracked by AI and we're trying to figure out who had let them go. On Wednesday, as the Silicon Valley tries to giant tries to transform into an AI first company. So they said 8,000 of them, 10% of the entire workforce would be laid off by May 20th. As Meta remade itself in the AI era, they learned that 7,000 employees that got to stay will be reassigned. Ryan to new AI initiatives. And it seems that the emails were automated and just kind of went out willy nilly. And all of the others were sitting there trying to update their own, their internal software or whatever, just to find out whether they've been canned or not.

[Ryan Grim]

And so this new internal AI team, they're saying it's so crazy internally, they're calling it a draft. So you get drafted. It's not up to you to go into this AI unit, which is in charge of basically getting rid of all of the employees. The dystopian deal that they're making with the people who get drafted into this AI unit to execute all of their colleagues is that they will not be laid off. Yes, of course. Doesn't mean permanently, but they won't be the first to be laid off. Meanwhile, Zuckerberg told his employees that he's very lucky to have such high IQ people there so that he can train his AI on their brains before getting rid of them. Let's roll this leaked audio. I think it was more perfect union that got this. Again, good credit to those guys. They're killing it. So let's listen to Zuckerberg talking to his employees, or soon to be former employees.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We're in a phase where basically the AI models learn from having really. From watching really smart people do things. And if you're trying to get it to be able to do certain capabilities, having it be able to observe really smart people doing those things is very important. So there are a few examples of where we're trying to do this across the company, because one basic insight and hypothesis that we have is that a lot of data generation across the field is done by these contract companies. Alex knows a bunch about this because he ran one before coming here. But in general, the average intelligence of the people who are at this company is significantly higher than the average set of people that you can get to do tasks if you're working through the contract, through these contractors. So if we're trying to teach the models coding, for example, then having people internally build tools or solve tasks that help teach the model how to code, we think is going to dramatically increase our model's coding ability faster than what others in the industry have the capability to do. Do who don't have thousands and thousands of extremely strong engineers at their company.

[Ryan Grim]

All right, Meanwhile, there's an internal petition. Employees are circulating against this.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What are you gonna do? This is who you work for now, you know, I'm not saying I don't support any of that, but, like, guys, this is what you're trying to. Like, it's coming. He says it out loud. I'm gonna keep my best employees so the AI can learn from them. And then eventually, why do we even need to you anymore? So if you stay there. That's basically what you're working for. I hope the interim dollars are worth it. Genuinely, I do. Because you're not. You're going to need the money because I hope it continues to compound forever because you're not going to have a job anymore.

[Ryan Grim]

They said one person had been there for less than a month that got laid off and then got 16 weeks of severance. So at least. Okay.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, it's not horrible.

[Juan David Rojas]

Two weeks of work.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, it paid anyway.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Two weeks of work to get laid off. How long is 16 weeks?

[Ryan Grim]

I'm trying to do four months.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Almost four months. Okay. Not horrible. Not horrible at all. All the problem, though, is that every other type of job that we're going to get is also probably going to be laid off and or that person

[Ryan Grim]

is not doing well.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Learn to code actually, no, Crystals is Learn to Learn to nurse. Learn to nurse.

[Ryan Grim]

There you go.

[Saagar Enjeti]

There you go.

[Martha Stewart]

Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret. When prepping for cooking and baking, get ahead of the mess with New Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper. Just lightly wet the counter so the paper grips. Lay it down and drips and spills stay on the paper paper, not on your counter. Cleanup is as simple as lifting it away to reveal clean counters. Effortless it is thanks to Reynolds Kitchens Countertop prep paper. Wet it, set it, prep it, done. Available in the Reynolds wrap aisle at Walmart, Target, Amazon, and Costco.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Here's the truth. You could literally be adored by everyone and then come home and still get completely ignored by your own cake cat. It's classic cat behavior. But New Shiba Premium Puree is a lickable treat that changes all that. They're protein rich, made with bone broth, and have the smooth, creamy texture cats go crazy for, especially when it's hand fed. Yeah, it's more than a treat. It's a fast pass to favorite human status. So feed your cat Sheba and go from totally ignored to truly adored in just 12 days, guaranteed or your money back. Learn more at Shiba.com There's a difference

[Krystal Ball]

between liking a house and actually getting it. Redfin is built to make up that difference and close the gap between finding and owning the home for you. Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents, so when you find a home you love, you're not a step behind when it comes to making an offer. That means less watching great homes disappear and more focus on the one you'll call home. Redfin helps turn saved listings into real addresses. Get [e-mail] own the dream. This is an I heart podcast.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Guaranteed human.