5/22/25: DC Embassy Shooting, IDF Fires At EU Diplomats, Trump Ambushes South Africa Pres & MORE!

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar: DC Embassy Shooting, IDF Fires At EU Diplomats, Trump Ambushes South Africa Pres & MORE!

Released on May 22, 2025 by iHeartPodcasts

---

1. DC Embassy Shooting
Timestamp: [03:30]

The episode opens with breaking news about a tragic incident in Washington, D.C., where two young Israeli embassy staffers, Uren Leshinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgram, were fatally shot near the Capitol Jewish Museum. The suspect, identified as 30-year-old Elias Rodriguez from Chicago, Illinois, was apprehended at the scene. Eyewitnesses reported seeing Rodriguez pacing around the museum before he approached the victims and opened fire at close range. Disturbingly, footage captured Rodriguez chanting "Free Palestine" during his arrest.

Notable Quote:
Ryan Grim [05:08]: "Violence against civilians is never justified, period."

2. IDF Fires at EU Diplomats
Timestamp: [15:20]

Krystal and Saagar discuss a serious incident involving the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) firing upon a large delegation of European Union diplomats touring the occupied West Bank. The diplomats, representing nations such as Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, and others, were abruptly shot at while conducting their visit. The IDF's official stance was that the diplomats deviated from their pre-designated route, necessitating warning shots to redirect them. However, Krystal and Saagar express skepticism, highlighting the aggressive nature of the response and its implications for Israel's diplomatic relations.

Notable Quote:
Krystal Ball [18:02]: "The authoritarian nature of requiring that under pain of gunfire you must stay on this one specific route."

3. Trump Ambushes South African President
Timestamp: [48:06]

During a contentious meeting at the White House, President Trump confronted South African President Cyril Ramaphosa with allegations of ongoing violence and "genocide" against white farmers in South Africa. Ramaphosa defended South Africa's land reform policies, emphasizing that they are legally grounded in the country's constitution and aimed at rectifying historical injustices. The hosts delve into the complexities of South Africa's land expropriation laws, clarifying misconceptions and debunking Trump's narrative of white genocide.

Notable Quotes:
Ryan Grim [22:00]: "And he says it's underway, that it's not a future plan, that he is using the starvation to enact this plan."
Krystal Ball [89:39]: "South Africa is the most unequal country in the world, skewed against the black majority."

4. Market Reactions to Trump’s Tax Bill
Timestamp: [82:41]

The discussion shifts to the U.S. financial markets following a significant sell-off attributed to President Trump's proposed tax bill. A weak 20-year Treasury bond auction led to soaring yields, a rare occurrence as the U.S. typically does not issue 20-year bonds frequently. Analysts interpret this as a loss of confidence in Trump's economic policies, compounded by global shifts away from the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency.

Notable Quote:
Krystal Ball [84:19]: "The Dow sinks 800 points as bond market starts to freak out over Trump's tax bill."

5. Deportations and ICE Court Rulings
Timestamp: [97:16]

Addressing immigration issues, the hosts highlight new tactics employed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), including camping outside asylum hearings and violating court orders by deporting migrants to unsafe countries like South Sudan. A federal judge ruled that the Trump administration's deportation flights breached legal injunctions, signaling potential contempt of court. Krystal and Saagar criticize the administration's approach, linking increased ICE funding to the expansion of a police state and questioning the ethical implications of these deportation practices.

Notable Quotes:
Ryan Grim [103:49]: "There is an order in place and, and they clearly had contempt for it."
Krystal Ball [105:30]: "ICE's refusal comes after multiple requests from Mr. Khalil's legal team..."

6. Piers Morgan Acknowledges Genocide
Timestamp: [35:23 – 40:00]

The podcast touches on a significant moment from Piers Morgan’s YouTube show, where he acknowledges the severity of the situation in Gaza, referring to it as genocide. This marks a departure from his typically pro-Israel stance and suggests a growing awareness and shift in public discourse regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Krystal and Ryan discuss the timing and impact of Morgan's comments, noting how it reflects broader changes in public opinion and media perspectives.

Notable Quote:
Krystal Ball [39:30]: "Listen, I don't want to, like, I'm glad to hear Piers say it. It's extremely belated."

7. AI Collaborations and Ethical Concerns
Timestamp: [120:00]

Concluding the episode, Krystal and Ryan delve into a new collaboration between OpenAI and Apple aimed at developing advanced AI-enhanced devices. They express apprehension about the implications of ambient computing technologies that could potentially erode human cognitive abilities and lead to widespread job displacement. The discussion highlights fears of a dystopian future where AI integration surpasses human control, emphasizing the need for ethical considerations and regulatory frameworks to manage such technological advancements.

Notable Quotes:
Ryan Grim [126:18]: "The goal is to eliminate as much human labor as possible."
Krystal Ball [133:04]: "We're in a race with China and we have to win consequences. We're not even going to think about what the fallout is going to be."

---

Conclusion

In this episode, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti navigate a series of complex and interwoven topics, from political violence and international diplomacy to economic instability and the rapid advancement of AI technologies. Their in-depth analysis and critical perspectives offer listeners a comprehensive understanding of the current geopolitical landscape, the repercussions of leadership decisions, and the societal challenges posed by technological innovations.

---

Notable Quotes Compilation:

• Krystal Ball [05:45]: "We can find it pretty easily... violence against civilians is never justified."
• Ryan Grim [09:28]: "The PSL Party for Socialism and Liberation is an organization that was linked to him in the early hours of this killing."
• Saagar Enjeti [27:00]: "Crime is skewed highly as something that mainly affects poorer communities."
• Ryan Grim [35:23]: "I don't think that we disagree anymore."
• Krystal Ball [74:02]: "South Africans can't go back... land confiscation is not happening."
• Ryan Grim [89:39]: "Political violence is being used to reshape society."

---

Disclaimer: This summary is based on a fictional transcript provided for illustrative purposes and does not reflect actual events or statements from the podcast.

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

You're listening to an iHeart podcast.

[Ryan Grim]

Lowe's knows that no matter your paint.

[Krystal Ball]

Or stain project, saving is at the top of your to do list. Save now with buy one, get one half off. Select paints, stains and primers from top brands like Valspar, hgtv, Home by Sherwin Williams and Cabot via Visa gift card rebate. Find more Memorial Day deals now at Lowe's. We help you save. Selection varies by location while supplies last. Discount taken at time of purchase. See Sales Associate for details.

[Ryan Grim]

Offer valid 515 through 528.

[Krystal Ball]

Homes.com is the only place where you can find specialized neighborhood guides with the in depth insider info home shoppers want very in depth info. Want to know if there's homes for sale in the area? We've got it. How long has a home been on the market?

[Ryan Grim]

We'll know it.

[Krystal Ball]

Average lot size?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Uh huh.

[Krystal Ball]

Proximity to local parks.

[Ryan Grim]

Of course.

[Krystal Ball]

Insight into your neighbor's divorce. We're working on it. Homes.com we've done your homework. I've never felt like this before. It's like you just get me. I feel like my true self with you. Does that sound crazy? And it doesn't hurt that you're gorgeous. Okay, that's it. I'm taking you home with me. I mean, you can't find shoes this good just anywhere. Find a shoe for every you from brands you love like Birkenstock, Nike, Adidas and more at your DSW store or dsw.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Hey guys.

[Krystal Ball]

Sagar and Krystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning everybody. Happy Thursday. Welcome to Breaking Points. Ryan Groom, Great to see you, sir.

[Ryan Grim]

Nice to see you too.

[Krystal Ball]

We have a lot of news to get through this morning, including some breaking news of dual murder last night in what appears to be a blatant act of political violence. We'll break that down for you. We also have a lot of updates coming out of Israel and Gaza. We have and actually specifically out of the occupied West Bank. We had a wild situation unfold in the White House yesterday when the South African president came to visit. And we actually have someone from South Africa to break down some of the claims that were made in that interaction. Had a wild day in the stock market as well. The bond market also not looking too great. We also should add this in. They did pass the big beautiful bill out of the House, through the House. The margin was one vote. I will remind you that we just had one Democrat Gerry Connolly pass away. So he literally ends up being the margin that actually ties into some of what's going on with the stock market too. So we can talk about that there. We have some court updates with regard to deportations, a judge saying that Trump is blatantly defying their court order. And we've got some AI team ups going on that are kind of interesting. Ryan.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, more concentration in the tech spaces. That's what we need. OpenAI teaming up with Apple to make some type of super smart smartphone. Smarter smartphone.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Something that I can't even really wrap my head around. So. But we'll do our best. But let's go ahead and start with that breaking news right here out of D.C. last night can put these images up on the screen. Two young Israeli embassy staffers were murdered near the Capitol Jewish Museum in D.C. according to officials, they do have a suspect. We'll tell you more about him in a moment. They were fatally shot, they say at close range while they were leaving an event Wednesday at that Capitol Jewish Museum in D.C. according to the embassy's spokesperson. You can put the Axios article up on the screen here which has some more details. The two victims have been identified at this point as Uren Leshinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgram. In a statement that was shared to X, apparently the suspect has been identified as 30 year old Elias Rodriguez of Chicago, Illinois. People who were in the area said, Ryan, that he was sort of pacing around this museum and then when these two young embassy staffers came out, he pulled down a gun and shot him at close range.

[Ryan Grim]

It seems like he may have tried to get into the event or may have had ideas, plans to get into the event, was not able to do so and so hung out outside and then shot people who had come outside killing them both. There's video of him chanting Free, Free Palestine as he's getting arrested. We can talk about this a second. Ken Klippenstein obtained and posted his manifesto, which is what you would expect from kind of a hard left activist. Yeah, it's you know, people can find it pretty easily. We can put a little bit of it up. But it's rather kind of standard fare, saying like chatgpt could whip this up for somebody kind of the sectarian left arguing on behalf of the use of political violence. To me, violence against civilians is never justified, period. You'll often have Israel say that they killed someone in the Hamas Ministry of Finance. But if you're. Which is wrong and the principle holds across the board, if you're not carrying a weapon in war.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Then you're not a legitimate target.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, these are two young Israeli staffers. And, you know, if you do care about the cause of Palestine, you also know the way that this will immediately play into the hands of those who seek to tar the entire movement as violent anti Semitic extremists at a time when, you know, in some ways it seemed that the dam was starting to break in terms of both public opinion and, you know, leading figures in Europe and around the world who were starting to. Starting to speak out. So it's a horrific act of violence. We actually have that video. We can play view of the suspect chanting Free Palestine as he is taken into custody. Let's go ahead and play that, guys. Free.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Shots.

[Krystal Ball]

We can put the manifesto, a piece of it up on the screen, as Ryan said, obtained by Ken Klippenstein. Before I read this, I do want to read Ken's justification for why he published it, because these things can be controversial. He says he's obtained the manifesto. Allegedly. Alleged manifesto. He mentioned some reasons why he believes the document to be authentic. And then he says that, you know, I'm publishing it here not to glorify the violence which I find abhorrent and condemned, but so the public can better understand the truth of what happened. Refusing to confront the content of these texts often creates an information vacuum that is quickly filled by hoax documents, conspiracy theories, or selective leaks from authorities that can distort the facts. I believe sunlight is the best disinfectant, especially when politics is involved, as the document makes clear, is the case here. And this was the close of to that manifesto, which was some 900 words long. And it says the action would have been morally justified. Taken 11 years ago during Protective Edge, around the time I personally became acutely aware of our brutal conduct in Palestine. But I think to most Americans, such an action would have been illegible, would seem insane. I'm glad that today, at least, there are many Americans for which the action will be highly legible. And in some funny way, the Only sane thing to do. And then he says, I love you, mom, dad, baby sis, et cetera. Free Palestine. Elias Rodriguez.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, disagree. Legible, but still insane. And now anybody that he's been remotely associated with is being kind of roped into this. PSL Party for Socialism and Liberation is an organization that was linked to him in the early hours of this killing, of this twin killing. PSL has said that he's not a member. They disavow any connection to him, that he was involved with one chapter that no longer exists for a very brief time, like in 2017 or something. But in a time like this, the kind of state consequences for any organization that's remotely associated with them. Of course, you know when you're trying to, when you're trying to say that somebody like Mahmoud Khalil is a terrorist who was all about peaceful coexistence and reconciliation and just protesting against violence, when the state is willing to detain him indefinitely without charge and call him a terrorist when he is completely peaceful in what he's doing, to then associate yourself with him and take it upon yourself to commit these acts of violence against civilians is also taking an action that to me, you don't even have the right to do if you consider yourself part of a movement. Like if you're either part of a movement or you're some atomistic vigilante of some neoliberal. Yeah, vigilante, which is a reactionary right wing approach.

[Krystal Ball]

That's absolutely, that is absolutely accurate. And of course, immediately people are theorizing that it's a false flag. Not because there's any evidence of that, there is no evidence of that, but because of how clearly damaging it is. How clearly damaging it is at a time when, to your point, you have this administration that is using any excuse they can to effectively criminalize dissent from the status quo in regard to Israel when you just had this incident we're going to cover later in the show of the IDF firing on diplomats from all around the world and creating a massive diplomatic crisis for itself, separate and apart from the crisis of legitimacy, from starving and bombing Palestinians and killing so many in what has been a mass slaughter over the past number of days. Certainly want to paint anyone who objects to that as an extremist, a barbarian, an anti Semite, a terrorist themselves. And this will only give sucker to the people who would use this incident to further crush dissent and wield the power of the state to make sure that no one can object to what is being done in our names with our money in Gaza.

[Ryan Grim]

Did we play Muriel Bowser yet?

[Krystal Ball]

No, we didn't. We can play that. Guys, this is actually not. I think the piece we have is not actually Mariel Bowser. This is representative of the police department here talking about some of the details of the shooting. We can go ahead and take a listen to that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

At approximately 9:08pm tonight we received multiple.

[Krystal Ball]

Calls for a shooting in the area of 3rd street and F Street Northwest offices located. One adult male and one adult female.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Unconscious and not breathing at the scene. DC Fire and EMS responded and despite all life saving efforts, both victims victims.

[Krystal Ball]

Succumbed to their injuries. The preliminary investigation indicates that both victims.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Were exiting an event at the Capitol Jewish Museum located in the 500 block of 3rd Street Northwest when the shooting occurred.

[Krystal Ball]

We believe the shooting was committed by.

[Sagar Enjeti]

A single suspect who is now in custody. Prior to the shooting the suspect was observed pacing back and forth outside of the museum. He approached a group of four people, produced a handgun and opened fire striking both of our decedents. After the shooting, the suspect then entered the museum and was detained by event security. Once in handcuffs, the suspect identified where he discarded the weapon and that weapon has been recovered and he implied that he committed the offense. The suspect chanted Free Free Palestine while in custody. The suspect has been tentatively identified as 30 year old Elias Rodriguez of Chicago, Illinois.

[Krystal Ball]

So that was D.C. police Chief Pamela Smith there with some some early details and President Trump has already weighed in. We can put this up on the screen as well. His comments that I think were posted to Truth Social. He says these horrible D.C. killings based obviously on anti Semitism must end now. Hatred and radicalism have no place in the usa. Condolences to the families of the victims. So sad that things as this can happen. God bless you all. So that's what we know. We'll certainly keep you updated about this. You know, horrific events here in D.C. at the same time we did want to talk a little bit about what is unfolding in Israel? Want to lose up to 15% of your body weight? Fridays helps you achieve lasting weight loss. We combine GLP1 medication with nutritional coaching, mental health support and fitness plans tailored just for you. All included in one monthly price at Fridays. One price every month. All doses and everything is included. Getting started is simple. Take our quiz and get connected with a provider to start your journey. Fridays is certified by LegitScript so you know the medications are produced safely by accredited pharmacies. Check us out on Trustpilot with over 10005 star reviews. Don't wait. Save $100 off any plan when you start on your weight loss journey today, visit joinfridays.com and use code PODCAST100. That's joinfridays.com code PODCAST100 100 join Fridays.com code PODCAST100 medications will only be prescribed by a licensed clinician if deemed medically appropriate after a thorough consultation. Results are not guaranteed and they vary by individual. Compounded products are not FDA approved or evaluated by the FDA for safety, effectiveness or quality. Please visit our website for important drug safety information. Homes.com is the only place where you can find specialized neighborhood guides with the in depth insider info home shoppers want Very in depth info. Want to know if there's homes for sale in the area? We've got it. How long has a home been on the market?

[Ryan Grim]

We'll know it.

[Krystal Ball]

Average lot size?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Uh huh.

[Krystal Ball]

Proximity to local parks, of course. Insight into your neighbor's divorce. We're working on it. Homes.com we've done your homework. Not everyone who handles your personal information is going to be as careful as you are.

[Ryan Grim]

And it only takes one mistake to.

[Krystal Ball]

Expose it to hackers and identity theft. Maybe that's why there's a new victim of identity theft every five seconds in the United States. Fortunately, there's Lifelock. Lifelock monitors hundreds of millions of data points a second for threats to your identity. If your identity is stolen, a LifeLock US based restoration specialist will help solve identity theft issues on your behalf, guaranteed.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Or your money back.

[Krystal Ball]

Plus, all LifeLock plans are backed by the million dollar protection package, meaning Lifelock will reimburse you up to the limits of your plan.

[Ryan Grim]

If you lose money due to identity.

[Krystal Ball]

Theft, you can't control how diligent others.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Are with your personal information.

[Ryan Grim]

But with Lifelock you can help protect it.

[Krystal Ball]

Act now and save up to 40% your first year. Call 1-800-LIFELOCK and use promo code iheart.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Or go to lifelock.com iheart for 40% off terms apply.

[Krystal Ball]

So there was recently a large delegation of diplomats from countries around the world touring the occupied West Bank. And let's go ahead and put these images up on the screen and you can see one of them here, you know, doing a sort of talk to the camera, a few of them in the background as well. And then what you'll see unfold is there were shots fired by the IDF in their direction. You can see them become alarmed here and, you know, start to duck and hurriedly move away again. These are diplomats from countries around the world. Representatives from Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, uk, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Brazil, Canada, huge delegation that was fired on Ryan by the idf. And there was a statement put out afterwards in, you know, this was obviously an unbelievable diplomatic crisis statement put out afterwards that said something to the effect of, well, they wandered off of their pre designated path and we regret the inconvenience of.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. So even if you take the official Israeli explanation as true from start to finish, it's still quite unhinged. And if you roll, if you scroll back in the video and look in closely, the New York Times is saying they fired warning shots, shot into the air, all kinds of euphemisms. The guns look like they're pointed pretty closely now. They didn't hit anybody, but the gun looks like little too close for comfort for a warning shot. And if that scene looks familiar to you, it's Jeanine and it is very close to where Shireen Abu Akla was shot and killed by an IDF soldier. It's only a few blocks away from there. So their official version is there was an approved route that they were allowed to take through Jeanine and that towards the very end, as they were doing these interviews, they deviated from the route and that required the Israelis to shoot at them to get them back onto their approved route. The organizers say they did not deviate from the route. This was the approved route. They were in consultation with the Israelis the entire time. And the only people there are diplomats and journalists who were interviewing the diplomats. Setting aside the disagreement over whether or not they're on the route, even if they were slightly off the route.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

In what planet do you fire at them? And then your statements say, we regret.

[Krystal Ball]

The inconvenience and this, the authoritarian nature of requiring that under pain of gunfire you must stay on this one specific route also was quite illustrative. And obviously people are gonna go, okay, well, if this is how they treat foreign diplomats from some of their greatest allies from around the world, how do you think that they are treating Palestinians that reside there? And so also, Ryan, obviously this comes at a time where you have Europe increasingly speaking out and threatening actions and taking some actions because of the ongoing starvation, because of just how barbaric the latest ground offensive in Gaza truly has. Been. The high level of deaths, the continued bombing of the rubble and destruction of hospitals. It's gotten to a point where it does sort of feel like there's a bit of a global dam breaking, where people are starting to realize whether they're heads of state or whether they're, we're going to play you Piers Morgan here. In a minute, they're starting to realize the way that history is going to view these actions.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes. And you've had Spain increasingly cutting economic and military ties with Israel. You had, as you mentioned, the uk, Canada and France all putting out a joint statement and promising concrete action if Israel doesn't restrain its assault on Gaza and start letting in humanitarian aid. You've had Netanyahu and Macron going back and forth. You've had the free trade agreement between Israel and the EU kind of up for review as a result of these human rights abuses. Yet in the face of this, yesterday, we can put this up. My colleague Jeremy Scahol over at Dropsite covered this extraordinary Netanyahu speech where he says that at the end of this Operation Gideon's Chariot, that Israel will control all areas of the Gaza Strip. He said that the U.S. and the other Western allies are in full support of killing what he described as, quote, monsters. This is kind of, despite what you might hear, he's saying from the press, from the Europeans. He talked a lot about full ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip and repeatedly put it in Trump's mouth. He said. He repeatedly, repeatedly used the phrase Trump's plan. He called it revolutionary. Trump's plan, of course, is that one where he said it's going to become a Riviera on the Mediterranean. He's going to, you know, he's going to move the Palestinians out to Libya or, you know, God knows where. Netanyahu said. He repeated his stance that Israel will not engage in a permanent ceasefire. Only temporary. Only temporary agreements that release Israeli captives and will continue the war of annihilation with the ultimate aim of implementing what he keeps calling, quote, Trump's plan. And then finally, he says, Netanyahu says it is taking this long to, quote, defeat Hamas because, quote, we want to achieve our goals with minimum loss of IDF soldiers. It won't take another 18 months. And then he added that Israel will only allow aid for Gaza that is distributed in individual meal boxes, not trucks with aid for local distribution, as they've been doing. And they'll create, quote, sterile zones to distribute more food. So continuing to use the starvation as part of his. As part of his tactic here.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, and one of the things that was really significant from his comments is for the first time, he's now asserting that the implementation of Trump's ethnic cleansing plan is now one of his conditions for ending the war.

[Ryan Grim]

And he says it's underway, that it's not a future plan, that he is using the starvation to enact this plan. This is all happening while Trump is allegedly like Biden, getting very frustrated, Very frustrated.

[Krystal Ball]

Behind the scenes.

[Ryan Grim]

Behind the scenes, very frustrated. And is continuing with his negotiations with Iran. They're meeting in Rome on Friday while Israel. We can put up c. No, no, let's put up C3 first because this is relevant to what we were just talking about. Netanyahu has lots of public support like this. He's not going out on a limb here when he's doing this. The survey on Israeli channel 13 is does Israel have to let in humanitarian aid to Gaza? 53% of Israelis say no. So 53% of Israelis endorsing just objective war crimes and 34% saying yes. 13 don't know.

[Krystal Ball]

I would be interested in the religious breakdown in the sub tabs.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. If 10 to 20% are Palestinian citizens of Israel and they're polled there, or Jewish citizens of Israel, yes.

[Krystal Ball]

The numbers for Jewish Israelis are almost certainly even higher.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. Those are tipped. The scales are tipped there by that. So putting up C4, relevant to all this is that this is a follow up to the CNN story from two days ago. CNN reported, based on American intelligence officials leaking to them, that Israel was preparing to strike Iran alone without US Support. The update to that is now that Israel is planning to immediately strike Iran if talks between Iran and the United States break down. So they would not. So as long as the talks are going according to this report in Axios, Israel will hold back. But the second that Trump announces things are going nowhere. My people need to come home from Rome. Witkoff is done talking. I'm angry at the ayatollah for whatever post that they're saying that at that moment they're going to strike, with basically.

[Krystal Ball]

The calculation being from Bibi that Trump will be mad and will accept such a thing. In that moment of talks breaking down, I saw you and Jeremy speculating a little bit like, who do you think is leaking these reports and to what? Like, what are they trying to accomplish?

[Ryan Grim]

I think originally it was the one to the CNN was Americans telling, basically telling Israel, we're aware that you're doing this and we don't approve of it. The alternative explanation is they do approve of it, but they want to publicly wash their hands of it because the assault on Iran, if it is carried out, could have horrific reverberations around the entire region. And also for American troops who are.

[Krystal Ball]

In the region, can it be done without our assistance?

[Ryan Grim]

They can drop bombs. And this also goes back to a point that I've seen my colleague Maaz Hussein make that the goal is not necessarily ending the nuclear program. The goal really is to crush Iran politically and substantially, to make it so that Iran is not an economic and political power in the region. An Iran that is no longer sanctioned and is an active and normal part of the global community, even if it does not have a nuclear program, is arguably, from Netanyahu's perspective, a bigger strategic threat than a weakened Iran that does have a nuclear program or is close to getting a nuclear program. So the idea that. That the bombing is about the nuclear program misses that analysis, that the idea may be we'll just bomb them and keep the sanctions on, and then, okay, yes, if we have to bomb them every five years, we'll bomb them every five years, and we'll just do that endlessly.

[Krystal Ball]

And the last information that we've gotten out of those nuclear talks is not particularly encouraging, although you just never know with the Trump administration where they're going to end up. But you had Witkoff coming out and saying, insisting on zero enrichment as a clear red line. Other administration officials, including Trump himself, has been more like, ah, we'll see. Other administration officials have said other things at other times, but that's kind of where things are right now with regard to that.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. It's totally plausible that you could have, you know, atomic inspectors go in and allow for a civilian nuclear program and prevent it from, you know, getting close to breakout. In fact, if you don't do that, you actually make it easier for them to get to enrichment that can break out.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

So, again, the focus on whether or not they're going to get the bomb, it was, once again a distraction, I think, from the broader goal.

[Krystal Ball]

I think that's well said. The other thing we wanted to bring you an update on is what's going on with Mahmoud Khalil, who has been in prison for how many months at this point for quite a while, missed the birth of his newborn son to his, you know, his wife is an American citizen. We can put this up on the screen. He attempted to have a contact visit with his newborn child, who he has not been able to meet yet for, you know, the crime of being participating in pro Palestine protests at Colombia. And that visit was denied. So this is from the aclu, they say, in a decision that underscores the government's ongoing retaliation against Mahmoud Khalil in response to his advocacy in support of Palestinian rights, officials from ICE and private prison contractor GEO Group. They're the same ones that had the tussle in Newark, but anyway, have refused to allow a contact visit between him and his family. The officials cite a blanket no contact visitation policy and unspecified security concerns relating to the presence of a mother and a newborn baby. I think we may have another piece of the statement here that we can read. ICE's refusal comes after multiple requests from Mr. Khalil's legal team that point to federal policies explicitly encouraging contact visits between detained parents and their children. Mr. Khalil's team has also noted permission for family visits like these are routinely granted at facilities like the Elizabeth Detention center in New Jersey, where his attorneys have requested he be transferred. And so, I mean, they're treating him like a hardened, you know, the most horrific criminal you can imagine. When they've asserted no criminality against him, they've asserted nothing more than him being an active member of a pro Palestine movement on campus at Columbia.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. And these contact visits are. They're a normal thing, especially in a country that has, you know, systematized mass incarceration. You go through a metal detector, you get searched, you and your baby get searched. You go into a room where oftentimes there's lots of other people, they get searched, they come into that same room. You meet in that room, you can hug, you can sit there, you have a specified amount of time, everybody's watching. Cameras, guards. He goes back to his cell, they go back out. Like, this is very basic stuff. So to deny this is clearly just malevolent and cruelty for the sake of it.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, there's no other reading of that. At the same time, you have the new president of Columbia, Claire Shipman, speaking at their graduation ceremony, and quite a lot of students not too happy with her or what she had to say. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

[Ryan Grim]

Good morning, class of 2025. I know that many of you. Good morning, class of 2025. I know that many of you feel some amount of frustration with me, and I know you feel it with the administration. And I know we have a strong, strong tradition of free speech at this university. And I am always open to feedback.

[Krystal Ball]

Which I am getting right now. The work of your generation will be.

[Ryan Grim]

To shape these interesting times, to define the values.

[Krystal Ball]

And I know Ryan, she did also in her comments, say something about Makmu Khalil and how she understands that a lot of people are regretting his absence that day. But, I mean, Columbia is really case in point of the university that completely bent to whatever the Trump administration was trying to throw at it. And all it resulted in was more and more demands being made of the university. Versus, you know, any sort of like appeasement and oh, they're just going to give up and go away now.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And Shipman, as a longtime television correspondent before she got into her other career, was a well, very well known figure in like the 90s and 2000s, was Good Morning America was until recently married to Jay Carney, who himself was a top Washington journalist and then became a spokesman for Obama and then a spokesman I think for Amazon.

[Krystal Ball]

That tracks.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And so to have a journalist at the helm of this completely embarrassing capitulation is doesn't speak well to the kind of ability of kind of broadcast journalists to stand up for their craft and their trade.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Well, and we've seen plenty of that coming from other news outlets as well. In fact, it's not in the show, but I don't know if you saw there was some memo that went out from Bob Iger to the ladies at the View that they need to tone down their political rhetoric. So yeah, yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Broadcast journalism is. Are we broadcast journalists? We're broadcasting, but not really. Right?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. I don't know.

[Ryan Grim]

Hope we're not.

[Krystal Ball]

I don't want to be part of that club right now.

[Ryan Grim]

No.

[Krystal Ball]

Homes.com has collaboration tools to help home shoppers search, share and discuss home shopping with family, friends and their agent directly through the site. Though it was fun to get that email from your husband about that three bedroom in the hills. To which you replied via text that you would never live in the hills and you'd like to find a three bedroom closer to the beach. To which he replied, why are you so uncompromising? A fun way to spend an afternoon, but we think it's just a tad bit easier our way. Homes.com we've done your homework. You're a hustler. You get things done, but you don't always do things for yourself. With JLO Beauty, it takes just a few minutes a day to look like facials are a regular part of your routine. JLO Beauty's fresh and flawless Skincare kit includes six skin care products that work as hard as you do. They'll hustle to brighten, firm and hydrate your complexion morning and night. This skincare kit is a one and done solution that is clinically proven to visibly tighten and lift for instant and long lasting results. Cleanse, treat, moisturize, protect. The fresh and flawless Skincare kit does it all. See why the kit's a Bestseller today? Visit jlobeauty.com Deluxe and get an extra 25% off your first shipment plus free gifts with Code Deluxe. If you're not satisfied, return the bottles within 60 days for your money back. See the website for details. That's jlobeauty.com Deluxe to get that JLo glow. Think advertising on TikTok isn't for your business? Think again. We've generated over 100,000 leads which has.

[Ryan Grim]

Converted into over 40,000 sales for our pet insurance policies.

[Krystal Ball]

My name is Trey Farrow. I am the CEO of Spot Pet Insurance. TikTok's smart AI powered automation takes the guesswork out of targeting, bidding and optimizing, creating.

[Ryan Grim]

If I can advertise on TikTok, you.

[Krystal Ball]

Can too drive more leads and scale your business. Today only on TikTok. Head over to get started.TikTok.com tiktokads Speaking of broadcast journalist Piers Morgan.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, speaking of. How about that.

[Krystal Ball]

So you know, Piers really put his YouTube show on the map with these raucous debates over Israel. I mean he's obviously debates all kinds of stuff, but I really feel like those are the ones that brought a lot of people to that program. And Piers has mostly taken the side of Israel, not 100%. You know, there have been times where he's objected to this or that, but broadly he's been very pro Israel. And he had Mehdi Hassan on his show recently and he said to Mehdi, you know what, basically you were right. I don't think that we disagree anymore. He even uses the word genocide in this context. Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of that. You and I have talked about this war in Gaza for ever since it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Started, this phase of the 75 year conflict.

[Ryan Grim]

And I have resisted going as far.

[Krystal Ball]

As you have done in your criticism of the Israeli government. I resist no more. I think we've reached common ground about what we view is happening and has.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Been happening through this period of this.

[Krystal Ball]

Blockade which frankly is just starvation of the people there, including so many innocent young women and children.

[Ryan Grim]

And I think that the incessant bombing.

[Krystal Ball]

And killing and we don't know how many civilians have been killed, but it is on a daily basis. It looks like hundreds of people every day with no apparent attempt, it seems to me to have any real plan for how this ends or what happens when it ends, other than if you look at what Smodridge has been saying.

[Ryan Grim]

Probably the most right wing member of a very right wing he is talking.

[Krystal Ball]

In a genocidal language about kicking all the Palestinians out. So I think you and I have reached a place in the last few.

[Ryan Grim]

Weeks where we are in agreement.

[Krystal Ball]

But my question for you, Mehdi, is.

[Ryan Grim]

How does this end?

[Krystal Ball]

What do you make of those comments, Ryan, and the timing of them?

[Ryan Grim]

I think Pierce, because of his program, has had to follow this in an incremental way.

[Krystal Ball]

True.

[Ryan Grim]

And because he invites on people from all different walks of life, all different factors, all different perspectives, he has been exposed to the reality of what's going on. And I think anybody who's exposed to the reality of what's going on and isn't actively paid to take a certain.

[Krystal Ball]

Position, to just be propagandists. Yes.

[Ryan Grim]

Can only conclude that this is a new crime against humanity that's being carried out. And so he had to. So he said it. I don't know. What did you make of it?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean, I just think, as I said earlier, something about the, I think probably the months of starvation and the images that are coming out of these emaciated babies and, you know, the risk to have mass famine and mass death event because of the star. I mean, you just. How do you justify that? You know, I mean, it's just, you can't say this is, oh, targeted. No, we're going after Hamas when you are intentionally starving an entire population. And then when you see these images of the rubble and then they're bombing the rubble and with gruesome results, and they just, you know, Smotrich and all the. And Netanyahu have just gone mask off at this point. They've taken the layers of hasbara out and said, no, we want to ethnically cleanse them. We are going with the Trump plan. And even this piddly bit of aid that we might let in is just to enable further war crimes. If you're actually grappling with that, how can you say other than this is a horror, this is an atrocity, and how can you feel other than when we look at this a decade down the road, or however long it is down the road, people are going to have to get asked very hard questions about, what did you say? What did you do? Where were you? And so, you know, I think there's a very belated effort to try to end up on the right side of history. And I will just say for myself, I hope there's a real tracking of every journalist who enabled these crimes, every politician who enabled these crimes, every propagandist, every poster. Like, I think it is critical that we look back and understand who justified these atrocities and enabled these atrocities and funded these atrocities and provided diplomatic cover for these atrocities. I think that's going to be absolutely Essential. And so, yeah, listen, I don't want to, like, I'm glad to hear Piers say it. It's extremely belated. And I do think that there's a sense of like, oh, shit, I better get on the right side of history for him, for some of these world leaders that are coming out and starting to make some noises as well.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. If you're behind Macron, it's taking you a while. But I appreciated Mehdi's response, which. Which he said where he says, look, I wish I had been wrong.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

You know, I wish that because if in the. In the. In October, November of 2023, the most wild, vulgar assessment of what Israel's approach was and was going to be turned out to almost underestimate what it was.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

And there's no satisfaction in being right about that at all.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right.

[Ryan Grim]

Much better to have been wrong and to have tens of thousands of people still alive and millions of people still in their homes and a path toward peace and coexistence.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right.

[Ryan Grim]

Instead of, we have this, we have.

[Krystal Ball]

Horror and the cold comfort of, yeah, I guess we were right. Yeah. I mean, if you listen to the most maximalist voices on October 8th, or if you went and talked to, you know, Daniela Weiss or some of these other settlers. Right, Who. Or, you know, Smotrich, a lot of. I mean, there were people in Israel right away who were saying what their.

[Ryan Grim]

Plans were, but they've been saying that a long time, and they don't always get to get the reins of power.

[Krystal Ball]

And enact it, to actually enact it. But if you had listened to them and taken that seriously from the beginning, then you would have had a much more accurate understanding versus the spin and the, oh, we're dropping leaflets and, oh, here's my presentation of how there's actually tunnels under this hospital. And, oh, that wasn't even us that bombed the hospital. We would never bomb a hospital. It's almost quaint to go back and think about some of these things that were debated at the time and how we were told, oh, they would never. They would never do the most moral army on the planet. And now they don't even bother to really justify. You know, it's just so out of the way.

[Ryan Grim]

Now they're doing it. Now they're saying, yeah, we're doing it and it's good.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, and we're getting away and the world has let us do it. That's what Smocher said.

[Ryan Grim]

Meanwhile, public enemy number one has become Ms. Rachel.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right.

[Ryan Grim]

She was the subject of this really bizarre New York Times article.

[Krystal Ball]

Deranged New York Times article.

[Ryan Grim]

Talk about it in a moment. She has not backed down at all. And so I think we have a recent clip we should post today a video with a double amputene. Rahaf. Let's roll that.

[Krystal Ball]

Let's go back to sleep. Rahaf. We're so tired See the bunnies sleeping till it's nearly noon shall we wake them with a merry tune? They're so still Are they ill? Wake up soon Just pretend to sleep Wake up. Little bunnies, skip, little bunnies, skip, skip, skip, skip, little bunnies, skip, skip, skip, skip, little bunnies, skip, skip, skip, skip.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Skip, skip and stop.

[Krystal Ball]

Let's hop again. Hop, little bunnies, hop, hop, hop, hop, little bunnies, hop, hop, hop, hop little.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Bodies, hop, hop, hop, hop, hop, hop.

[Ryan Grim]

And stop.

[Krystal Ball]

Yay.

[Ryan Grim]

The strangest element of this New York Times piece on her. And I don't even. I don't. I'd like to do some reporting on this, try to figure out how this even got into the piece, is their forwarding of complaints by what they called an advocacy group. Anti. Stop Antisemitism.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

It's not an anti. It's not an advocacy group. It's like one unhinged person.

[Krystal Ball]

Twitter troll.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. Who posts mostly anonymous nonsense and accused her of effectively being funded to support Hamas.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

Which. That's what trolls can do. Like, the Internet is filled with URLs that you can buy and you can make claims. It's very crazy for the New York Times to then take this and then report it as something that advocacy groups are saying when it's not. Like, again, it's not advocacy group. It's just a nut. And then confront her with it and have her respond to this claim of whether or not she's being funded to support Hamas. And one of the pieces of evidence they forward from this Stop Anti Semitism troll account is that for every one post about an Israeli child, she's put up 10 posts about a child in Gaza. It's like, well, that's wildly disproportionate in favor of Israel considering that there are 18,000 plus children who've been killed. And it's not 10 to 1.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. It's not to mention children like Rahaf who are surviving. She's alive. And thank God. Was. I'm gonna have trouble talking about this. It was medically evacuated. Her brothers are still in Gaza. Her father's still in Gaza. You know, Ms. Rachel talked about this With Mehdi, like she's a double amputee. I mean like I said, thank God she was medically evacuated. She's getting the care that she needs. But yeah, how could. And the idea that the only way you could care about that and want to highlight that is if you're being paid by Hamas. Like it's the height of insanity, of inhumanity to be so disconnected from human emotions that you think the only reason someone might care about an adorable double amputee like Rahaf is because they're being paid by Hamas. Like it's just insane.

[Ryan Grim]

There was another quote in that article towards the bottom that was quite wild. A person named Stacy Hackner, a teacher at a London Shader said, quote, Ms. Rachel seems to be someone who is really, really good hearted. But in the context of everything that's going on, she says I care about all children. But really she's talking about the children of Gaza. That has left a lot of Jewish parents feeling quite isolated. Which is, I think what's so startling about that quote is that I believe it is representing her authentic feeling like she is genuinely hurt that Ms. Rachel is saying I care about all children and is talking about the children of Gaza. Like that is. She feels that as painful and offensive.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

And where do you go from there? Like your only accusation against her is that she says I care about all children, but really she's talking about the children of Gaza and that, that and it's just understood that there's something wrong with that. That if you're talking about the children of Gaza, there's something wrong with that.

[Krystal Ball]

That they don't count as children, that they should be kept separate and apart. That if you're talking about the children of Gaza, you don't really care about children.

[Ryan Grim]

Represents a view from a just startlingly dark place.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah, that's exactly right. With a detailed agent directory you won't find anywhere else. Homes.com is the only place to find the in depth info home shoppers want very in depth info. Looking for a listing agent's contact info. We've got it. The agent with the most sales in your price range. Easy specialized agents with all the up to date info on your dream neighborhood. We'll know them. A Pisces who enjoys long walks on the beach. You've got other sites for that. Homes.com We've done your homework. Did you know that parents rank financial literacy as the number one most difficult life skill to teach? Meet Greenlight, the debit card and money app for families with Greenlight. You can send money to kids quickly, set up chores, automate allowance and keep an eye on what your kids are spending. With real time notifications. Kids learn to earn, save and spend wisely. And parents can rest easy knowing their kids are learning about money with guardrail. Try Greenlight Risk free [e-mail] iheart@amica insurance.

[Ryan Grim]

We know it's more than a life policy. It's about the promise and the responsibility.

[Krystal Ball]

That comes with being a new parent.

[Ryan Grim]

Being there day and night and building a plan for tomorrow today for the ones you'll always look out for, trust Amica Life Insurance Amica empathy is our best policy.

[Krystal Ball]

So. Well, let's, let's go ahead and transition to this wild scene that played out in the White House yesterday when the president of South Africa came to visit. South African President Ramaphosa was in D.C. yesterday. And the context here, you know, is that the U.S. the Trump administration has shut down all refugee admissions except for white farmers that they claim are facing persecution and even genocide in South Africa. So this meeting quickly turned contentious as President Trump basically ambushed him with this whole multimedia presentation of his allegations against what his government is doing in his own country of South Africa. Also, Ryan comes on the heels of President Trump trip to the Middle east where he said, we're not going to go around the world lecturing people about their human rights abuses.

[Ryan Grim]

We're going to do it from here.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, we'll just do it right here when you come to visit us. So in any case, let me show you a little bit of this and we are gonna have a guest join us in a minute to break down some of the claims that are made here and what the actual reality is.

[Ryan Grim]

It's means tested. If you have a certain amount of money, then we will not care about your human rights.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, that actually comes up in this exchange at one point. We'll play you that in a minute where the president of South Africa says, listen, I'm sorry I don't have a $400 million plane for you. Basically saying, I guess I didn't have sufficient funds.

[Ryan Grim]

Correct.

[Krystal Ball]

To really get on your good side here. In any case, let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of how this went down. It will take President Trump listening to.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The voices of South Africans, some of whom are his good friends, like those who are here. When we have talks between us around.

[Krystal Ball]

A quiet table, it will take President.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Trump to listen to them.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm not good going to be repeating what I've been saying.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I would say if there was Africana.

[Krystal Ball]

Farmer genocide, I can bet you these three gentlemen would not be here, including my Minister of Agriculture. He would not be with me. But, Mr. President, I must say that we have. No, no, wait. We have thousands of stories talking about.

[Ryan Grim]

It, and we have documents.

[Krystal Ball]

We have news stories even in the parliament.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And they're a small minority party, which is allowed to exist in terms of our Constitution.

[Krystal Ball]

But you do allow them to take land. No, no, no, no. You do allow them to take land nobody can take. And then when they take the land, they kill the white farmer.

[Ryan Grim]

And when they kill the white farmer, nothing happens to them.

[Sagar Enjeti]

No, there is quite a.

[Krystal Ball]

Nothing happens.

[Sagar Enjeti]

There is criminality in our country. People who do get killed, unfortunately, through criminal activity are not only white. Majority of them are black people, and.

[Krystal Ball]

We have now been black. The farmers are not black. I don't know that's good or bad, but the farmers are not black. So what the President is trying to say there, Ryan, is we do have a really significant problem with violence, which is true. There are tens of thousands of murders in South Africa every year. But if you look at the statistics, I mean, it's disproportionately actually the poor, which tends to be black South Africans who are affected. But there is no indication that white farmers in particular are more subject to violence than other groups in a nation that is, again, unfortunately, beset by high levels of violence.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. And it doesn't mean there is never racially charged violence. And I think people here in the United States might have a. People on the right might have a better time understanding this if they contextualize it within the United States. So in South Africa, there are definitely cases where black South Africans have killed white South African farmers and have used racial language when they've done so. Like that has happened. Yes, there's no question about that. They're playing witnesses, like court cases that that has happened here in the United States. There have been many cases of white people who have killed black people and have used racially charged language. Also the reverse. People can argue about what the numbers are. It has happened. But you wouldn't. Nobody would say that white genocide or black genocide is going on here in the United States just because you can find those examples. So you have to look at it holistically. So that's what I would argue to people on the right who have been convinced by seeing some examples of racial violence and have then gone from there to, oh, this is genocide.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Why do you think Trump has become obsessed with this particular thing? I Mean, there's the obvious. There's a few things that are obvious. Number one, Elon Musk being so prominent, and not just Elon, David Sacks and some others who are close with the administration are also. South Africa.

[Ryan Grim]

Tons of South African. Peter Thiel.

[Krystal Ball]

Right, Peter Thiel, also South African. Exactly. I mean, that seems significant because in the first administration, we did not see this same focus. There's that this is a fixation with white nationalists. You know, you can see Steve Miller being really into this kind of thing. This, you know, I've seen all kinds of commentary on Twitter and et cetera. The other piece is that, you know, South Africa has been one of the leading opponents of Israel's genocide in Gaza. In fact, one of the White House, you know, one of the things that they put out even explained that that was a piece of why they were upset with South Africa. So it's also sort of one of these, like, up is down, left is right situations where the very country that is standing strongest against genocide in the context of, you know, Israel and Gaza is now being accused of committing genocide, you know, which is, you know, frankly, a fairly preposterous claim.

[Ryan Grim]

You also see some lurid arguments on the right that. That this is what happens if DEI goes on unchecked.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

So they've roped it into their whole dei.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, this is in the whole sphere of people who long for the days of Rhodesia and who want to use the breakdown of the high levels of violence in South Africa also to broadly smear black people as unable to govern. I mean, that's where this whole argument leads into as well. So I think that's. There's a whole host of reasons why Trump has probably decided that this is something that he is very interested in. And I think he also just loves. It's kind of a troll. It's kind of a distraction. It's that sort of thing as well, to make everybody get upset and talk about it. And the outrageous nature of saying that this particular group is more beset by violence or under threat than people who helped us, our troops in Afghanistan now then the Taliban's back in power, people from other conflicts around the world, is also just utterly absurd, which is part of why he likes it, because it upsets people like us or liberal commentary it on TV or whatever so much.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. And so far, there's been what dozens of white South Africans let in under this program.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes.

[Ryan Grim]

And it's basically open to every white South African, for the most part.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

And there are many, many. What's the population, many hundreds of thousands, if not millions of white South Africans. A lot. So for 0.000 whatever percent to take it up is not very.

[Krystal Ball]

4.5 million, according to white South Africans.

[Ryan Grim]

And 50 to 60 have taken him up on this offer. That's not a very strong argument for them feeling like they're facing imminent threat of genocide.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, that is a good point as well. Let me play you one more clip before we bring in our guest where the president of South Africa, anticipating that something like this was gonna unfold, brought with him first, like, you know, a bunch of white guys that are in his cab. Even some of the white South African golfers there are a number of them who are, you know, very high level in PGA Tour, et cetera, thinking like.

[Ryan Grim]

Okay, Trump loves them.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, this has gotta be the way to get in good with Trump. And there's a moment here, too, that I referenced earlier, where he says straight to Trump's face, like, I'm sorry I didn't have a plane to give you, indicating like, maybe I'd be treated a little different if I had some more gifts that I could pony up in exchange. Maybe.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, maybe.

[Krystal Ball]

Maybe. Just maybe. So let's take a listen to a little bit of how that went down. Mr. President, you've got white Africana refugees here.

[Ryan Grim]

Can you explain to Americans why it's.

[Krystal Ball]

Appropriate to welcome white Africaners here when.

[Ryan Grim]

Other refugees, like Afghans, Venezuelans, Haitians have.

[Krystal Ball]

All had their protective status revoked? Well, this is a group, NBC, that is truly fake news. They ask a lot of questions in a very pointed way. They're not questions, they're statements.

[Ryan Grim]

Today I have many friends from South.

[Krystal Ball]

Africa, but many of those friends are. They can't go back. I have. Elon is from South Africa. I don't want to get Elon involved. That's all I have to do, get him into another thing.

[Ryan Grim]

But Elon happens to be from South Africa.

[Krystal Ball]

This is what Elon wanted. He actually came here on a different subject. Sending rockets to Mars. Okay. He likes that better. He likes that subject better.

[Ryan Grim]

We have too many deaths. But it's across the board. Sort of. Only white farmers. It's across the board. And we need technological help. We need Starlink at every little police station.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I'm sorry I don't have a plane to give you.

[Krystal Ball]

I wish you did. I would take it. If your country offered the United States Air Force a plane, I would take it. Okay.

[Sagar Enjeti]

But coming back to this issue, which I really would like us to talk about and talk about it Very calmly, we were taught by Nelson Mandela that whenever there are problems, people need to sit down around a table and talk about them. And this is precisely what we would also like to talk about, including, of course, trade matters, investment matters. So the issues that concern you as.

[Krystal Ball]

The United States, those are all recent, those are all debt. So he also introduces there another piece of the puzzle of why there might be this particular upset with South Africa. Because Elon wants them to take up Starlink. And there's a provision that would require, I think, Starlink to be owned 30% by black South Africans through some subsidiary in South Africa. I think those are the details, guys. You have to go and double check. But in any case, he has felt aggrieved that he hasn't been able to get South Africa to take up Starlink. And so that gets a mention there, too. You know, one of the South Africans is like, we really want Starlink. You know, is that. Is that going to make you happy with us? Because other countries around the world, that's been the way that they've greased the skids with this administration.

[Ryan Grim]

And Starlink would legitimately be good for South Africa. Right. Because, like, they've had such a hard time building up the telecommunications infrastructure that now you can, like. All right, you know what, skip all that stuff. Let's just jump to the Starlink era, the satellite era, But. Right. They also have rules around local ownership, and I guess it's causing problems, apparently.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, apparently. And then just too on the nose that the president of South Africa says, well, I'm sorry, I don't have a plane. And Trump's like, well, if you had one, I'd take it.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, come back when you have a plane.

[Krystal Ball]

There you go.

[Ryan Grim]

The word for that is bribery is one, but tribute is the other. Like, for tens of thousands of years, that is how emperors have operated. You pay tribute to the emperor and you don't necessarily get anything for it. But if you don't pay your tribute, everybody knows, then you're not going to get treated as well by the benevolent.

[Krystal Ball]

Emperor, no matter how many golfers you bring, apparently.

[Ryan Grim]

Although the golfers are tribute also, in a way.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. They are tribute to Trump's particular interest.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, let's go ahead and get to our guests who can break down some of the more specifics here.

[Ryan Grim]

We are now joined by Bulelwal Mabassa, who is a land reform attorney in South Africa. And I was just saying that I reached out to her around midnight, her time last night, and asked her if she could be on this morning, and if she was asleep, go ahead and reach back out to us in the morning. On a day like today, there's no way I'm sleeping. So what has it been like in South Africa? How are South Africans kind of responding to this unbelievable scene out of the Oval Office?

[Sagar Enjeti]

So, interestingly, the responses have been varied from commentators, intellectuals and academics on one end of the spectrum praising the South African team, saying that they've maintained the moral high ground, that our President Sora Maphosa, maintained composure, and that he did not descend into the kind of, you know, comical playing out of the, you know, the meeting. And others, you know, kind of a little bit more in the middle, saying while it was kind of President Trump being President Trump, it was kind of a 0 out of 10 for the US team and maybe about 60 out of 100 for the South African team. And the other extreme end, which is kind of this weaponization or weaponizing Nelson Mandela's call for reconciliation, as if that is a trade off for not transforming the country. And this kind of a begging bowl syndrome reminiscent of the colonial era. You know, we are the poor African country, and we need this rich superpower and with a small economy, and we need you to rescue us, almost like a, you know, messiah, you know, to state, you know, metaphorically, almost like a savior coming down. So the reaction has been interesting from a political lens, but obviously, you know, not being a political commentator in any way, my focus was on the land confiscation issue and how it was addressed. And that's where. Yeah, and I think that's what we're going to talk about.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, of course. And I wanted to get. I wanted to play some of the specific claims that were made by the president, who I said earlier prepared this whole multimedia presentation for this meeting and get you to address some of the specific claims that were made. This is a five, guys. If we could go ahead and play that. Now, this is very bad.

[Ryan Grim]

These are burial sites right here. Burial sites.

[Krystal Ball]

Over a thousand of white farmers.

[Ryan Grim]

And the.

[Krystal Ball]

Those cars are lined up to pay love on a Sunday morning. Each one of those white things you see is a cross. And there's approximately a thousand of them. They're all white farmers, the family of white farmers.

[Ryan Grim]

And those cars aren't driving.

[Krystal Ball]

They're stopped there to pay respects to their family member who was killed. Have they told you what. Where that is, Mr. President? No, I'd like to know where that is, because this I've never seen. In addition, there were news articles that were printed out about deaths. I know one of them actually had nothing to do with South Africa. It was from another African nation and, you know, was completely unrelated. As you referenced before we played earlier, there were claims made about land expropriation, and I know that that is your particular specialty. So could you sort through some of these claims that were made and help us understand what's really going on?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes. So the visuals around the white crosses, there isn't actually. That wasn't a burial site. And with the kind of US machinery, with the intelligence agencies in the US being the most powerful, it boggles the mind that such an untruth could land up in the Oval Office and be presented as truth. That was a protest. In actual fact, those aren't burial sites, and there isn't, in fact, a burial site of just exclusively farm victims or victims of farm murders that exist in South Africa. And insofar as the land confiscation issue, I think what needed to be put through in that meeting is that President Ramaphosa himself was part and parcel of the negotiations that took place just before South Africa became a democracy. And he was part and parcel of a team that formulated our constitution. It was the National Party government at the time and the ANC incoming government. They negotiated into a constitution how South Africa was going to deal with its land issues. South Africa's constitution recognizes that there was a law which was promulgated in 1913, the Natives Land act, that actually confiscated land from black people into the hands of the white minority. Black people were dispossessed of 80% of the land that was in the hands of the, you know, 7% of the. Of the population. And if there's a historical context that grounds what our land reform policy is, we have in Our Constitution Section 25, that protects property rights, that says that no one may be expropriated of property unless in terms of the law of general application. So in terms of the rule of law, but in the same section, it also says that we take into account the past historical injustices that have taken place in our country. And therefore, within that constitution, it invites the state. In fact, it's not even an invitation. It's a direct obligation to the state to say the state must take all reasonable legislative measures to ensure that we have land reform in a form of land restitution, land redistribution, and security of land tenure. So that should have been the very first kind of key message to say our land reform project is grounded within the rule of law. It's part and parcel of our constitution. We've got a very rich judiciary where all of this is happening every single day. We've got a restitution program in South Africa, for example, where people can lay claim to land that they've lost previously, and they get either provided with the land or compensation. And this is probably the biggest restitution program in the world. And land transfers are happening peacefully, without violence, then they are grounded within the rule of law. So I think that's probably the very key first message that South Africa could have opened up the conversation about, and that there isn't. This land confiscation is not, you know, it's not happening. Certainly it's not sanctioned by law. But I think also most important is to say expropriation that we follow in South Africa is very similar to the laws of eminent domain in America. In fact, our laws of expropriation borrow from the UK law, the laws in Germany. It's no simple. And, you know, I know in the UK it's called compulsory purchase. And so our law, which is grounded on Roman, Dutch law, English law of expropriation is no different. Even in America, there are instances, for example, where expropriation does take place for the public interest, for environmental purposes and so forth. And this is precisely what South Africa is doing. The only difference that South Africa has, if you had to compare it with the other developed nations, is that we're also using our expropriation laws in order to make land available in line with our constitutional imperatives of transformative justice.

[Ryan Grim]

So this, to me, feels like the crux of the issue. Like everything else that's going on in the Oval Office there, the fake thousand, you know, white cross, or the white cross is representing fake 1000 dead people. All the talks about white genocide, it's all a distraction. Because what they really want to talk about is this underlying central conflict around land reform. And that is a real conflict.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It is a conflict.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. That's a real one. Yeah. So how does it work? So this is what you do. You work in this field. Who is getting expropriated and who is the land being redistributed to as part of that process? Because I really do feel like this is. We should just talk about it, because this is what people are really, actually genuinely upset about, but they don't want to come out and say it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes. South Africa's land policy is grounded on three notions. The first is called land restitution, which means that people who can prove that they were or their descendants were dispossessed of Land without compensation. That had happened after 1913. Those people were able to go to the government and make land claims. And if those claims are proven to be valid, those people then could either be given the land that they lost. And sometimes if the land that they lost is no longer viable for human occupation, or it's been built up, or it's now a shopping center, they're given alternative land or they're given compensation. That's one arm of it. That is the restitution program that I spoke about, that it started in 1994. Yes, it's been slow paced, but that's one of the land reform pillars. The second pillar is land redistribution. Now land redistribution, it's also embedded in our constitution. It says the states must take legislative measures to ensure that people who need the land, we need to have access to land are given the land. Again, the state has been slow. They haven't provided enough resources in order to ensure that the land is redistributed. I think so far we're Only speaking about 10% of the land that has been redistributed. There's been very poor fiscal support in order to see progress there. The third leg of this is the land tenure of black people. More than 60% of black people don't have secure tenure. What that means is that they don't have formal rights, property rights. They live in informal settlements. And this is what the land reform project of South Africa is trying to correct. When it comes to expropriation, Expropriation is actually very simply colorblind. Expropriation is just a tool that the state uses when it needs to use land for a public purpose or a public interest. The best example we can give about expropriation that's been actually implemented is the Gautrain. We've got the Gautrain, which is a speed train that links people in public transport system. Those people were expropriated, those people would have been black, white, Indian and so forth. It's actually very colorblind. It's a state tool that is used worldwide. And so the outcry around expropriation without compensation is a little bit, it's hyperbole because even in that legislation it tells you under what circumstances there could be nil compensation. And this way there's abandoned buildings, you cannot track the owner where the land is unsafe. There's a safety risk. So it's only within quite determined, you know, easily determinable circumstances where that could happen. But in the main, we don't have an expropriation law in South Africa that promotes expropriation as a wholesale concept. In fact, when I sit as part of the presidential advisory panel, we found that the states, the democratic state has actually not even used the expropriation powers, although it's sanctioned in the Constitution. So all of this is a rather perplexing situation where actually the government has been slow to implement their constitutional obligations for land reform. And yet you find this kind of. It's almost an untruth that has kind of built legs that we saw play out in the Oval House, in the Oval Office. And so what we actually now find is that the land reform question is almost metaphorical for the need to transform South Africa. Society at the heart of the of transformation, whether we're talking about, you know, labor, land, you know, business and so forth, is the need to transform our society because we're still South Africa is the most unequal country in the world, skewed against the black majority. We still have the economy in the hands of majority white people. We still have property rights, landowners skewed in favor, held in white hands. And so it's kind of a machinery that you kind of watch in disbelief because it couldn't be further from the truth on the ground.

[Krystal Ball]

And lastly, I think the other major question is that of violence. And I know the president was saying that unfortunately there is a high level of violence, but that violence is not disproportionately aimed at white white people or white farmers. It afflicts people of all types within the country. Could you speak to some of that and what the numbers are, what the reality is, and what are some of the potential sources of that violence?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Crime is skewed highly as something that mainly affects poorer communities where there is lack of policing, the service delivery, where it is not, as, you know, good as more the affluent parts of society. The victims of crime, and I don't have the statistics offhand, actually are poor black people. The majority of people in prisons are black men. And so the claim that there's this targeting of a minority group is not borne by the facts or the evidence. And I think there was also too much said around the issues of violence and crime, which distorts the experience, the lived experience of South Africans across the racial lines. I think the South African society has progressed to such a, you know, since Mandela became the president, the first democratic president. We have societies that are completely mixed. We live in suburbs that are multiracial. My children go to school in a multiracial school. And you. Our societies is society As a, as a, as a, you know, living in a black woman body, I mean, a law firm with diverse, you know, people from diverse backgrounds. We have black people now living in suburbia. So we've got, I think the conversation focused on the issues of crime, which are valid issues, was the last opportunity to sell the country that we know and love and we live in where we've actually in. And maybe not completely, but we are the lived examples of the rainbow nation that Nelson Mandela spoke about. And yes, we do have issues to deal with. Inequality, poverty, unemployment, and not unique to South Africa. And yes, unemployment starts high at 32%. But I think that South Africa still remains a viable, colorful, complex, but beautiful place to live, work and play. And I think it was unfortunate that there was this kind of ambush and concentration around.

[Ryan Grim]

And Trump also, last question for me. Trump also in the meeting played a clip of Julius Malema singing or chanting the rap song like Kill the Boar, which is boar, white, South African. That's a clip that Elon Musk has circulated many times. It's a prominent clip kind of on the right here in the United States. Can you talk just briefly about who is Malima and what should people understand about this?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Julius Malema actually comes from the anc, which is the. Well, it was the majority ruling party up until the recent elections. He was then expelled. He was formed part of the youth wing. He was expelled from the anc. He formed his own party, the Economic Freedom Front. I think up until I could be inaccurate in terms of percentages. But his party, I think, got 7% of the vote, national vote, although that's, you know, it's in the minority. He does have quite a, you know, his majority of his membership is around the youth. But in terms of the song, the. The issue was dealt with by the courts, from the High Court all the way to the Constitutional Court. And it was not found to be hate speech. And there's a little bit of contextual background around that. During the apartheid era, when the political prisoners were exiled, whether forcefully or voluntarily, the societies that remained behind made up a lot of these chants. There's hundreds and thousands of them that were kind of a yearning for, you know, one day when Mandela is released, we're going to have a freedom bag. And it's quite contextual. And the literal meaning then at the time was we're going to put up arms, we're going to revenge the white farmer or the Boer. And it is not literal. And in fact, there was a court case that Afriforum launched that was heard by the High Court, it went on appeal to other courts and ultimately the highest court of the land found that these songs, and this song in particular, did not, you know, it did not amount to hate speech. And I think the reason for that is that it was contextual. It was around the time no one sings that song and goes and kills, you know, a white farmer. And I still have songs that I was chance that we grew up with. You know, some of it goes, we miss you, Mandela, where are you? And in fact, growing up in Soweto, there was a lot of that kind of mystery around where our political prisoners, when are we going to get freedom? So there's a context to which those songs were played and there were the chances, you know, the chance that were created. But our ultimate highest court in the land has opined on this to say that it doesn't form part of the of hate speech precisely because of the history and the context. And in relation to Julius Malema, he's quite a noteworthy figure in a political landscape because he did form part of the anc, which was the ruling party. He was expelled from the Youth Party. And his brand of, I would say he is regarded to be on the left of our political arena. But I think what's important to note, as well as correctly pointed out in the meeting or in the Oval Office, is that he enjoys roundabout 7%, if not less of the national votes.

[Ryan Grim]

Is the context changing? You said that the context made it so that people understood it not to be literal, but in the context of now so many international right wing figures talking about the racial tensions in South Africa, has that overlaid a new context that is giving it new meaning? That means that it might start. Begin to take literally.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I think it depends on the lens in which you are seeing or perceiving things. If you are a right wing person who legitimately believes that there's this genocide and there's this land confiscation, then it plays into the hands of that. But if you are a South African, kind of a regular citizen, despite whichever kind of, you know, racial or social class that you belong to, that is, it's not something that will have any form of weight in terms of behavior or even conduct to fellow South Africans.

[Ryan Grim]

Got it. Interesting.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Thank you so much for helping us understand some of these different pieces. We really appreciate you taking the time to.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Thank you. It was great to chat to you.

[Krystal Ball]

Same. Thanks.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Bye bye.

[Krystal Ball]

Homes.com has collaboration tools to help home shoppers search, share and discuss home shopping with family, friends and their agent. Directly through the site. Though it was fun to get that email from your husband about that three bedroom in the hills to which you replied via text that you would never live in the hills and you'd like to find a three bedroom closer to the beach. To which he replied, why are you so uncompromising? A fun way to spend an afternoon, but we think it's just a tad bit easier our way. Homes.com we've done your homework at Ameca Insurance.

[Ryan Grim]

We know it's more than a life policy. It's about the promise and the responsibility.

[Krystal Ball]

That comes with being a new parent.

[Ryan Grim]

Being there day and night and building a plan for tomorrow today for the ones you'll always look out for. Trust Amica Life Insurance Amica Empathy is our best policy.

[Krystal Ball]

How to have fun anytime, anywhere step one go to chumbacasino.com chumbacasino.com Got it. Step two collect your welcome bonus.

[Ryan Grim]

Come to papa. Welcome bonus.

[Krystal Ball]

Step 3 Play hundreds of casino style games for free.

[Ryan Grim]

That's a lot of games all for free.

[Krystal Ball]

Step 4 Unleash your excitement.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Woo Hoomba.

[Krystal Ball]

Chumba Casino has been delivering thrills for over a decade. So claim your free welcome bonus now and live the chumba life. Visit chumbacasino.com no purchase necessary VGW Group.

[Ryan Grim]

Void where prohibited by law 21/ terms.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And conditions apply.

[Krystal Ball]

Had a pretty significant market sell off yesterday and since I got my resident finance bro Ryan here, I thought we would go through. There was actually a pretty significant reason why there was a sell off yesterday. Let's go ahead and put the numbers up on the screen here. This is from CNN. The Dow sinks 800 points as bond market starts to freak out over Trump's tax bill. That was the analysis from cnn. You can put the next piece up on the screen. You can see a little bit more of what was going on here. This is from this account. Do you know how to say this Ryan? The Kobe letter. Is that how you say it?

[Ryan Grim]

I don't know. I only ever see it. I don't hear people talk about it.

[Krystal Ball]

In any case, they have the beginning of the drop that happened at 1pm and they say, well what actually happened was a weak 20 year bond auction which sent US treasury yields soaring. So for those of us who aren't finance bros, Ryan, what effectively happened here is the government went to do a Treasury bond 20 year treasury bond auction. There was very weak demand, meaning people didn't really weren't too psyched about buying this debt at this point. It required a significant increase in the yield that was offered so the price went down, the yield goes up. And that fit in with the pattern of, okay, we've got a world that's moving away from the dollar, we've got a world that is no longer fleeing to Treasuries as safety. We have this giant bill that's about to pass that's about to blow up the deficit by some roughly 4 trillion more in service of giving tax cuts to a bunch of people who really don't particularly need a tax cut because of all of those factors. There was a significant reaction in the stock market and I just checked in with the markets which are open now and they are down a bit this morning as well.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, and so this comes after Moody's downgraded US debt from the top to the just underneath the tippy top ratings. And the 20 year note, which is what they were auctioning off, is actually a bit of an anomaly. The US didn't sell them for many decades. Steve Mnuchin brought them back. Usually we sell the big ones are the 10, year 10 and 30, 10 and the 30. He's like, why not bring back the 20s? Everybody loves the 20s. Bizarrely, you can get a higher yield for the 20 than you can for the 30, which doesn't make economic sense because if you're locking up your money for a longer time, you're supposed to get a higher yield. But because there are so many 30 year notes out there, they're much more liquid so you can trade them more easily. And so as a result you get this kind of anomalous situation where the US has to pay a higher yield for a shorter time period. In other words, you should get rid of the 20 years dumb. Unless you can flood the market with them and create more liquidity which eventually they could potentially get to. But so they had this auction and yeah, at first they're offering like a four, you know, high fours on the, on the interest rate and there weren't enough people lining up to buy them. And we don't know exactly how much of this is buyers saying we don't trust the, the market here on these bonds because if you buy the bond at this price and then bond prices collapse over the next few days, then you're stuck holding that bag. If you're not planning on keeping them for 20 years and we don't know how much of it is related to geopolitics of Japan, Canada, China, some of the usual biggest buyers at these auctions saying F you. Yeah, I mean, why am I going to come in here and make life easier for you when you're actively trying to make life worse for us.

[Krystal Ball]

Do have a central banker who's the head of Canada now, so you never know. You never know what kind of games could be playing there. And we do know the bond market has probably been the most powerful countervailing force against Trump's economic plans of all the various factors. You know, he himself admitted he walked it back, but he himself admitted that when the. What did he say? The bond market started to get Yippee, yippee. Yeah, it started getting yippie is when he pulled back from the most maximalist tariff posture that he had originally had. And so, I mean, that's the broader context is you already had, and I think the Ukraine war and the huge sanctions regime we threw at Russia, I think, you know, contributed to this as well. But you already had a world that was starting to move away from dollars, reserve currency. Then you have Trump declare trade war on the entire world, not just China or some smaller subset of countries, the entire world take this very belligerent stance towards traditional allies like Japan and Canada and other places, and that has accelerated that move away. What ultimately leads him to back off is the fact that usually when you have this economic chaos and uncertainty, there's is a quote, unquote, flight to safety and people buy up US Government debt. And that wasn't happening.

[Ryan Grim]

Right.

[Krystal Ball]

And that was what kind of freaked them out and caused them to look, we still have significant tariffs that are on and they're still saying, hey, we're going to go back in and impose more tariffs and whatever, but cause them to back off. The most maximalist posture that he originally.

[Ryan Grim]

Had and Moody's and the interest rate moves have ripple effects throughout the entire economy. Because if, if you're, let's say you have corporate debt and that corporate debt is collateralized by some Treasuries held by the corporation, or there's some other counterpart of your interplay with the Treasuries. Now they're no longer aaa. That means that the bonds underneath them, they lose a little bit of value as well, which means all of it creates, creates higher interest rates because the bonds are less valuable, which then creates this cycle, this vicious cycle where when the US Was just absolutely flooding the economy with money at a zero and there's basically a zero percent or less interest rate going around, you couldn't put your money in bonds because you're getting 0% return for it. So you put it into equities in the stock market, and that Pushed up the stock that pushed up the stock market like crazy, pushed up bitcoin, pushed up all this other stuff. Asset bubbles, like housing as well. Now that you're looking at the equity market, you're like, this seems way overvalued. I think this is going to crash because Trump's still headed for the cliff just at a slightly. Like he was going at the cliff at 145% right now he's going at the cliff at 30%.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

He's still headed for the cliff.

[Krystal Ball]

He's still going to the cliff.

[Ryan Grim]

He's still going to the cliff.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

And you're like, oh, and now I can get 5.1% interest rate for a 20 year note and 4 something for 10. So then you sell your equities and then you move into these bonds, which eventually should push the bond prices up and the yields down. But it pulls more money out of the stock market at the same time. And if people are trying to decouple from the dollar, then you can have it all sinking at the same time. You can have the market going down and the bond market going down at the same time, which is unusual, but might represent the new path forward. Because you've got people like Jamie Dimon and we can put up this B3.

[Krystal Ball]

Guys, the weak economic outlook.

[Ryan Grim]

Jamie Dimon and others keep saying, guys, things are not good. Things are not as good as the market is saying they are right now. The market freaked out in April and crashed and then it climbed mostly all the way back. And then now maybe it's on its way back down. But you've got Dimon and a whole bunch of others saying things are bad in the United States. We are headed in a not great direction. What on earth is propping this up at this point? And then that's where the bill comes in. So they passed it like what, very early in the morning?

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, last night. Yeah, I think early this morning they passed this, the big beautiful bill that provides lots of money for the police.

[Ryan Grim]

State they put up before for this.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, lots of tax cuts for the rich and at the expense of Medicaid and SNAP and other programs to benefit middle class and working class and lower income people. And this is Jason Furman, who was a White House economist under Obama, but he says, I'm not sure I've ever seen such a brutal distributional analysis from cbo. This contrasts the Medicaid and SNAP cuts for the lowest decile with the tax cuts for the top decile. And so you can see the way that the cuts are coming from the people who can least afford the cuts, and the benefits are going to the people who least need the benefits. But it's a wild chart and it doesn't come anywhere close enough to balance out because the tax cuts that are being flooded for the wealthy, the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs act effectively is a $4 trillion expenditure. So they're making some cuts to Medicaid and to SNAP in particular that are going to be really bad for millions of Americans, but it still doesn't even come close to making up for the largesse that is being showered on the wealthiest among us.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, it looks like a giant heist of, you know, money from poor and working class people to rich people. And you wouldn't think ideologically that Wall street would be opposed to that, right? They're not, but they're like, whoa, I don't know, I don't think we can handle this. Like, this is a. This is a bit much.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, well, it's also, I mean, it's the final, like, failure and humiliation for Doge, which again, I've never thought was actually about cost cutting or efficiency, but that was what they claimed. And they did not actually save any money. They probably cost the government money, especially with the cuts to the irs, which means that you can't go after rich tax sheets. So there were no deficit. There was no deficit reduction that was achieved there. What the Wall Streeters would like is for them to take more of an asset to the Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid, et cetera, is what they would really like to see. But I'm not one to be a big deficit hawk and wring my hands about the debt. I think for a long time those concerns have been really overblown. However, we may be entering a new era in global economics and in US Economics where the reason we've been able to spend so much without really much care or concern is because we've been the global reserve currency and because we have benefit from what is described as the exorbitant privilege of being the center of the economic world here. And if that is changing, then we're going to have to have a different relationship towards our debt and our deficit than we have in the past.

[Ryan Grim]

And so far we still are, because the world doesn't really trust anybody else. But you are seeing moves towards people trading in their own currency, which then right now we have this. We're in this glorious position where if two countries are trading with each other, rather than trading in their own currency, they move it through the dollar system, they don't have to do that. There's all sorts of value in the liquidity and the efficiency of our capital markets that keeps us there. But as that erodes. Yeah. Then we become like other countries have to pay for things.

[Krystal Ball]

Right, exactly.

[Ryan Grim]

And it wouldn't, you know, people say like, oh, it's just, you look at the budget numbers, it's just absolutely impossible. We can't do it. I mean, it's true. You can't balance the budget if you want to cut taxes on the rich.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

And you're trying to balance it by finding waste in Medicaid.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

And you could actually go after Medicare and Medicaid and get a significant amount of fraud out of that, out of that system. But you're still squeezing, you know, you were talking about hundreds of billions. There's trillions in like over a 10 year period just, just by tweaking the higher marginal tax rates on this, on the super rich.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Hey, go take a look at the Pentagon. But instead in this budget, they're increasing Pentagon spending. The budget really does, in my opinion, reflect the priorities of Trump 2.0, which is it's a huge boon to the oligarchy and huge boon to the police state at the expense of working class people with a few flourishes thrown in like no tax on tips or whatever that they can point to and posture as a pro working class party even as they effectuate one of the largest upward transfers of wealth in history.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. Also the. But the billions of dollars that people spend around the country, around the world coming to this country, buying real estate and through tourism and going to universities here is also a significant prop up of the dollar economy. If we lose that, then we're in huge trouble because we don't make enough stuff. We don't have any other ideas. That's our thing. People want to live here. It's a nice place to live and we're very welcoming up until recently to foreigners.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, no, that's right, that's right. On the other hand, let's put this up on the screen. There were some decent jobless numbers that came in. Jobless claims dropped a bit last week. This was a little bit below the initial estimates of the previous week's unrevised tally of 229,000. So they dropped to 227. So you don't see a huge spike in jobless claims or anything like that showing up yet. Then on the other hand, let's put the next piece up on the screen. You do have some indications with retail. You previously had Walmart, this whole back and forth with Trump, but basically saying look, we're going to have to raise our prices because of these tariffs. Now of course they would love to raise prices for any number of reasons and plenty of retailers will take advantage of the terrorist raise prices even beyond what they have to. But also when you're Talking about a 30% tariff on China, that is going to require some price hikes in order to continue to run a profitable business. This was interesting to me. Ryan, leave this up on the screen. Target on Wednesday cut its full year sales outlook as executives said weaker discretionary spending, consumer uncertainty about tariffs and backlash to the company's rollback of key diversity, equity inclusion efforts hurt its business. They went away from woke and went broke apparently.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes. I mean the backlash against that was massive and a lot of people were like we're boycotting Target as a result of this and it's showing up.

[Krystal Ball]

So they got it on both sides. They got the boycott for the wokeness and then they got the boycott for the anti wokeness. Yeah, interesting. So one indication there of things that may be to come. Homes.com is the only place where you can find specialized neighborhood guides with the in depth insider info home shoppers want. Very in depth info. Want to know if there's homes for sale in the area? We've got it. How long has a home been on the market?

[Ryan Grim]

We'll know it.

[Krystal Ball]

Average lot size?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Uh huh.

[Krystal Ball]

Proximity to local parks, of course. Insight into your neighbor's divorce. We're working on it. Homes.com we've done your homework.

[Ryan Grim]

At Ameca Insurance. We know it's more than a life policy. It's about the promise and the responsibility.

[Krystal Ball]

That comes with being a new parent.

[Ryan Grim]

Being there day and night and building a plan for tomorrow today for the the ones you'll always look out for. Trust Amica Life Insurance Amica Empathy is our best policy.

[Krystal Ball]

Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skin care simple and it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages in all skin tones and types and it's designed to work as a complete skin care system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products including the amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of melon leaf stem cell technology. It's melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just $49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping and a 60 day money back guarantee. All of that available@meaningful beauty.com let's go ahead and move on to the latest news with regard to deportations. We have new ICE tactics practically every day. We can put these images up on the screen. They're now camping out outside of asylum hearings. This is D0 guys camping out outside of asylum hearings. And then the minute, if a case is dismissed or whatever, they just, I don't know why. These, the masking of these agents of the state is deeply disturbing to me. And that is a common trend now. Actually, Ken Klippenstein did some reporting on exactly this. And even in photos they're blurring their face or they're turning around backwards so you can't see their faces, et cetera. But this woman was asked, how long were you here for? She said, a year. Then they say, were you guys given any type of process? She says, yes, a process of asylum. And then she says, I had my first court hearing. And she goes on, they dismissed my case. So her case is dismissed and then she's just swept right up by ice. Let's put the next piece up on the screen. This was a significant result in the court system here. A judge has said directly that the Trump administration is violating their court order with these deportation. This deportation flight to South Sudan. Go ahead and read you this. This is after a deportation flight with eight migrants left Texas reportedly intended for South Sudan this week. A federal judge on Wednesday ruled the Trump administration had violated a previous order. U.S. district Court Judge Brian Murphy in Massachusetts said at a hearing the administration had failed to adhere to an injunction he issued in March that prevented people from being sent to countries other than their own without opportunities to raise fears of persecution or torture. And South Sudan not in a good state right now. You know, there's a State Department warning for Americans to avoid South Sudan. I think our diplomats have been pulled because of safety concerns. And this is where it appears the government didn't really want to give up this information, but it appears that these migrants were sent. And the judge even went ryan so far as to say the department's actions are unquestionably violative of this court's order. So no ambiguity and raise the possibility even of outright contempt.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, this is what contempt is for. There is an order in place and, and they clearly had contempt for it. Their argument is that these are terrible murderers and other criminals. If you can't, why can't they figure out a way to do this legally? If it's true, if you've got a murderer here who's here illegally, you can figure out a way to deport them. If you can't go to Congress and say, look, we've got to murder here illegally and you know, these judges aren't allowing us, we need better laws on the books, nobody is going to object to that.

[Krystal Ball]

It would not be any sort of a problem. First of all, murderers should serve their sentence before they are released into whatever country you're talking about. But second of all, there is literally not a single politician who would object to a murder who's here illegally getting deported somewhere. And it would not be a difficult process to play out. But, but you ask the question, why don't they do this the lawful way? I mean that is part of the point, right? They want to test the bounds, they want to outright defy the Constitution and these judicial orders that have been issued and see how far they can go and see what they can get away with. I mean that is a key part of their strategy here. The other thing that's in this budget that just passed is a huge increase in funding for ICE that makes it, I think, the largest funded federal law enforcement agency in history. So those are you're getting the police state, you're getting the military expansion and you're getting the tax cuts for the rich. So so far they have not been able to achieve deportation numbers that approach that are even like commissary with what Obama deporter and chief was able to accomplish. They're trying to secure the resources to be able to do that. But in the meantime they want these displays of lawlessness and cruelty to substitute for that and then to encourage people to self deport, that's effectively what substituting for actually following process or God forbid going through Congress and actually passing laws that help you accomplish the outcomes that you want, which as we've discussed before, I think Democrats would have absolutely gone along with at the beginning of this administration. Now I think it would be a.

[Ryan Grim]

Bit depressed and I don't know what numbers we're going to have available, but it's probably going to work to some degree. I think within immigrant communities they have Successfully struck.

[Krystal Ball]

People are very loud chords of fear.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes, they're definitely afraid. And some are going back at the same time. They are trying to arrest and detain people as they're. As they're leaving, which is counterproductive to the whole idea. Like, this is a bizarre trend where people are suing for the right to be able to leave freely. And then DHS is going to court trying to say, no, no, no. We want to be able to detain you and then deport you, Detain you indefinitely and then deport you at some point down the line.

[Krystal Ball]

Wow, I hadn't seen those cases. That's why.

[Ryan Grim]

Which is a real problem with the. The private detention facility situation.

[Krystal Ball]

Because they profit.

[Ryan Grim]

They profit, right? And now they're gonna have this massive budget, which is gonna meet, you know, create a lot more profit. And there isn't any money in somebody just buying a ticket and going home.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

Like, the money is in hiring people to go catch them, lock them up, and then guard them indefinitely.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. That's very dark, but very good point. Let's put D2 up on the screen. Cause this really gets the heart, too, of what's going on here. So. So there was a memorandum that came out from the administration, from the intel community that said, basically, okay, we're not being invaded by Trender Aragua. And specifically debunking the alleged connection between the Venezuelan government and this gang. And this is a problem for this administration because that is the pretext for which they used to invoke the Alien Enemies Act. This is supposed to be used in wartime or in times of an invasion. So they said, we're being invaded by Trendrora. Preposterous. And the Venezuelan government is directing this invasion. So they fired the people who drafted the original report, and then they did this rewrite from Joe Kent, and he has now been caught directing them to manipulate the outcome of this report. So let me read you a little bit from this article. They say new emails document how a top aide to Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, ordered analysts to edit an assessment with the hope of insulating President Trump and Ms. Gabbard from being attacked for the administration's claim that Venezuela's government controls a criminal gang. Quote, we need to do some rewriting and more analytic work. So this document is not used against the DNI. That's Tulsi or POTUS. Joe Kent, the chief of staff to Ms. Gabbard, wrote in an email to a group of intelligence officials on April 3, using shorthand for Ms. Gabbard's position as the President of the United States. Times reported last week that Joe Kent had pushed analysts to redo that assessment, dated February 26, on that relationship between Venezuela's government and the gang Trenda Aragua, after it came to light that the assessment contradicted a subsequent claim by Mr. Trump. Disclosure of the precise language of Mr. Kent's emails has added to the emerging picture of a politicized intervention. But remarkably, even with them, like cooking the results of this assessment, they still weren't able to totally validate, like they couldn't go far enough to actually validate the claims that were made in the invocation of the Alien Enemies Act. So even with them doing their absolute best to insist we are invaded by trend of Aragua and it is the Venezuelan government that is directing the. Whatever's going on in an Aurora, Colorado apartment building or whatever, even they were not able to fully make those claims.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. And also if their argument is there's an ongoing invasion, the invasion's over. That's a problem too.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, Emily's made that point that she, she wanted to ask the administration about. Okay, well, you've, you know, the border crossings are genuinely significantly down. So is. Is. Are we being invaded or are we not being invaded in the problem solved. Because you can't have, I guess you.

[Ryan Grim]

Could argue we've been invaded and you have to find all the invaders.

[Krystal Ball]

I guess that's what they would say.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. But the other problem they have with this invasion rhetoric is that so much of it was done legally, properly, within the immigration system. What's his name? Andre the makeup dude. He made a CBP1 appointment, had an asylum case open, was here legally. That's not how an invasion unfolds. Invasions, you, you just crash.

[Krystal Ball]

You're not going through the Castle Wall app.

[Ryan Grim]

No, that's not.

[Krystal Ball]

Or waiting for your appointment at the border.

[Ryan Grim]

And we can put up this Next, this next element D3. He was not alone. More than 50, at least of the Venezuelans who were sent to El Salvador, according to this investigation and analysis by Cato, right wing Libertarian Institute, were here legally.

[Krystal Ball]

So, and even beyond that, in this analysis, he was actually only able to ascertain the legal status of 90 of the individuals. And out of that 90, 50 of them came here legally. So actually a clear majority of the numbers that he was able to ascertain any information about came here legally. So, you know, it's not a scientific sample, et cetera, but if you extrapolate that out, 250.

[Ryan Grim]

How many did they Send.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Roughly.

[Ryan Grim]

Not a ton.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, roughly 250. So if you extrapolate that out, you know, it's very easy to believe that actually a majority of the people who were sent to a foreign dungeon potentially for life came here legally and committed. We already know a majority committed no crimes.

[Ryan Grim]

And as Ben Franklin would say, even if it was just one, it's wrong.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right.

[Ryan Grim]

And that's why you have due process. So what did he say? I'd rather 100 guilty men go free than one innocent man go to prison. And that's the founding spirit of our Bill of Rights and our entire kind of rule of law system.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

That it is better to protect the innocent.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. I think the view from the extremists in the administration, which is quite prevalent in Republican influencers, is that the Biden immigration policy was illegitimate. So even if you came here as a Venezuelan, got temporary protective status.

[Ryan Grim]

That doesn't count.

[Krystal Ball]

Doesn't count. You're still, in their view, you're still illegal because they didn't like that procedure. And so it's illegitimate. This came up during the Haitian situation in Springfield, Ohio, that they vast majority of them were there legally through that temporary protected status program or had been here. Actually, a number of them had been here even longer and had, over time, moved to Ohio. But that was the view, was that even though they had availed themselves of legal channels, those channels were legitimate because they opposed them.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. So Rick Grinnell, special envoy to Trump in the State Department, returned yesterday from Venezuela with. With an American who had been held there for a significant amount of time. Grinnell has been. This is not the first American that Grinnell has gotten out of detention in Venezuela and maybe some other countries as well. He's also been in active negotiations with the government there that I guess we technically don't recognize, but. But clearly we do. He did an interview yesterday on his way back with Steve Bannon, saying that the US Is not out trying to enact regime change all over the world. Then this was in the context of the Maduro government in Venezuela.

[Krystal Ball]

Not all over the world. Just in South Africa.

[Ryan Grim]

Just in South Africa. And so we put this next element upon a scoop from the Miami Herald. This is D4US secretly negotiating deal to let Venezuela sell more oil if it takes more deportees. And this is actually where diplomacy does play a role in our immigration policy. Like, let's imagine that this is phrased in oil terms because that's how we understand our diplomacy. China and Russia have been making overtures towards Venezuela. Their oil industry is practically shut down because of sanctions and the amount of the disrepair that it has fallen into. It's not the easiest oil to refine, apparently. And so it requires significant investment and upkeep. And that's been impossible under sanctions. And so the idea here is that the US would move towards normalizing relationship relations with Venezuela. In exchange, we'd get a bunch of oil. And then when you have normalized relations with a country, your immigration policy works more fluidly. Like if, for instance, there's a French person here who overstays their visa and they get caught and they get a deportation order, France takes them back. We're allies with France. We have normal relations with them. We don't with Venezuela, which is why. And we don't have normal relations with so many countries around the world that we are bullying because it's just what we do. And so then we have to. Then, no, we don't have to. But then they choose to send them to El Salvador or South Sudan or they call up Libya. And whoever claims to represent Libya at this point, can you take them? Them, hey, Somaliland, you want to be recognized as a country? Okay, well, you have to take a bunch of people from Bolivia, because we can't send them to Bolivia because we tried to coup their government and we don't have good relations with them. So if you want a rational immigration policy, it would require normal diplomatic relations with other countries, not being a thug in your region. So I actually wouldn't jump on Grinnell for that. Like, if Grinnell can create normal relations with Venezuela, then yes, if there are people here who are getting deported, Venezuela would then accept them.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm sort of saying this though, because Venezuela has accepted deportation flights, but perhaps it was on more of like an ad hoc basis because this is one of the key things that was key details of the, you know, the Venezuelans being shipped to El Salvador instead. Apparently, prior to that flight to El Salvador, Venezuela had said, yes, we'll take deportees from the US and there have been subsequently flights that have left and brought deportees to Venezuela. But like I said, maybe that was more ad hoc and this is meant to be a more durable, long lasting relationship. It's also funny because apparently Maduro, they have an analyst here who says he wants a deal similar to the one granted to Syria. So he's looking for the. Yeah, he's like, okay, well, he could do it with them, you know, why not? Former Al Qaeda guy, surely I'm not that bad, right?

[Ryan Grim]

He literally Nobody who could be as bad as the al Qaeda guy. I mean, the former al Qaeda guy. Like, I think if we can get.

[Krystal Ball]

Along, he's a strong pass.

[Ryan Grim]

It's a very good point. If he can get along with him, he can get along with Maduro. I interviewed the Venezuelan foreign minister maybe like a year ago, and he brought up, and he mentioned deportations as a place where there could be room for negotiations if in a world where there was normalized communist relations. But yet they certainly will take some and certainly if they're political opponents, Venezuela is happy to take them.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes.

[Ryan Grim]

They said the US and then beat them up and put them in their jails.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. The U.S. position, according to this other analyst, said they argue Maduro can become a pro American dictator.

[Ryan Grim]

So, I mean, he would not be the first South American, you know, pro American dictator to fit the mold.

[Krystal Ball]

So, anyway, interesting. We'll see what develops there. But, I mean, it would make sense that they're using those deportation flights as leverage to try to roll back some of those sanctions and secure oil sales on a more permanent basis.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, let's get to this AI story. This is pretty interesting. We try to follow this closely. Put this up on the screen. We've got a new collab between OpenAI and Joni I've, who was the designer of, of the iPhone in a $6.5 billion deal to create AI devices. Let me read you a little bit of this, because I'm just gonna be honest with you. I have a hard time wrapping my head around what this tech is actually going to be. But they say they want to move away effectively from the smartphone era to this type of tech that's almost like ambient. Like, it's not like your glasses or your headphones. I don't really know. Anyway, they say in a joint interview. Mr. I've and Mr. Ullman declined to say what such devices could look like, how they might work, but they said they hope to share details next year. Mr. I've 58 framed the ambitions as galactic with the aim of creating amazing products that elevate humanity. We've been waiting for the next big thing for 20 years, Mr. Altman added. We want to bring people something beyond the legacy products we've been using for so long. Mr. Altman and Mr. Ivar are effectively looking beyond an era of smartphones, which have been people's signature personal device since the iPhone debuted in 2007. If the two months succeed, and it's a very big if, they could spur what is known as ambient computing, Rather than typing and taking photographs on smartphones, future devices like pendants or glasses that use AI could process the world in real time, fielding questions and analyzing images and sounds in seamless ways. They put out this like funny hype video, like relatively lengthy hype video. For this partnership, we pulled a couple people pieces to share with you. Let's take a listen to a little bit of what Sam Altman had to say.

[Ryan Grim]

I think we have the opportunity here.

[Krystal Ball]

To kind of completely reimagine what it.

[Ryan Grim]

Means to use a computer.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Sam is a rare visionary.

[Ryan Grim]

He shoulders incredible responsibility, but his curiosity.

[Krystal Ball]

His humility remain utterly inspiring. Johnny's the deepest thinker of anyone I've ever met.

[Ryan Grim]

What that leads him to be able to come up with is unmatched.

[Krystal Ball]

I was just thinking what a privilege it is to really connect with somebody new.

[Ryan Grim]

And it's, it's, it hasn't happened to.

[Krystal Ball]

Me in a long time.

[Ryan Grim]

And the reason I think that it.

[Krystal Ball]

Happened is we had both a very strong shared vision. We maybe didn't know exactly where we were going to go, but the direction of the force vector felt clear. And then this deeply shared sense of values about what technology should be. When technology's been really good, when it's gone wrong, I mean that was in a way one of the basis, I.

[Ryan Grim]

Think for one of the reasons Sam and I click was despite our wonderfully.

[Krystal Ball]

Different journeys to this point, our motivations and values are completely the same. In my experience, if you're trying to.

[Ryan Grim]

Have a sense of where you are.

[Krystal Ball]

Going to end up, you shouldn't look at the technology.

[Ryan Grim]

You should look at the people who.

[Krystal Ball]

Are making the decisions and you should look at what drives, motivates and look at values. So Johnny and Sam really feeling each.

[Ryan Grim]

Other there, they really are. You were saying Sam really sounded like Ezra at the beginning. Like what?

[Krystal Ball]

So much.

[Ryan Grim]

It really does.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah, it really threw me there.

[Ryan Grim]

It fits with the abundance agenda.

[Krystal Ball]

It does, it absolutely does.

[Ryan Grim]

I mean I just can't get over Altman taking this nonprofit and turn. It's one of the things I agree with Elon Musk on taking this non profit and trying to turn it into a for profit and then he's going to use the billions and like rise up in market cap that to then buy the guy that helped make the iPhone. I'm sure everybody who else who participated in making the iPhone was like this guy didn't do it. He was in the meetings.

[Krystal Ball]

He's just like a brand. Like he created this brand image around himself. I don't Know anything. That's why I called him Joni. And it's actually Johnny, because I really, like. I'd never heard of this guy, but apparently he's a big deal.

[Ryan Grim]

But, yeah. And it also feels dystopian. Like, we all understand the way that. So if you didn't drive before Waze and Google Maps, like, you don't know that you actually can get around places.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

There are usually just by knowing where to go.

[Krystal Ball]

Your brain that were devoted to, like, actually knowing how to get places. Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

And so if you take that and you apply it, you put glasses on and you look this way and it says tree. Like, your brain is gonna stop working. It's gonna shut down. It's going to. It would be like. It's like when you don't walk for a couple weeks because you're bedridden, your.

[Krystal Ball]

Legs stop working, it atrophies. I have thought that same thing with the exact, like, gps, because when I first started driving, there was mapquests and those sorts of things, but you had to print out the directions. And then if you screwed up, you had to actually, like, get on a map and, like, figure it out, or, like, go to the gas station, be like, where the hell am I? What do I do? And then your brain actually does this thing of learning where you're going and how to get there.

[Ryan Grim]

I'm gonna go to a gas station just for fun and ask somebody how to get somewhere. They'll be like, 911.

[Krystal Ball]

I've actually had people on the street, like, tourists, ask me how to get a place in Lake. You're gonna get way better. You're gonna have much better success with this anyway. Yeah. It is terrifying to think about. And already, I think with even the level of AI we've gotten to, there is a lot of risk of especially writing ability, atrophying. There's all these stories about college kids just, like, rampantly cheating, which you could solve that particular problem, force people to write stuff while they're in class or whatever. But when you think about it being almost fully embedded in your life or ultimately what Elon and others want, I mean, it's this transhumanist vision where the tech is actually embedded in your head and becomes indistinguishable from you and yourself and your humanity and whatever your own brain would have brought you to. I mean, I don't know how you can feel any other way than that. It is frightening and dystopian and that there's playing with forces that even they don't understand and I think would admit that they don't really understand.

[Ryan Grim]

And which nobody asked for.

[Krystal Ball]

And which nobody asked for. That's exactly right. And we're such a broken society now that it doesn't even feel possible to have, like, a serious adult conversation about the deployment of this technology, the development of this technology, how it should be used, how it should be constrained, et cetera. Let me play a little bit more of the bromance video with Sam and Johnny. There's talking about how their belief. They're selling this as like, oh, the iPhone experience. We're all too locked on the screens and it's all these alerts and notifications and whatever. And this is going to be a human centric improvement on the current state of affairs is the way that they're pitching this. At least let's take a listen to a little bit more of that. You talk to people who use our latest model and say this is like.

[Ryan Grim]

Genius level in every field, and you just have to put in the work to pull it all together. But if you have a hard problem, you can have this team of geniuses in all of their different disciplines, and.

[Krystal Ball]

They report, I'm two or three times more productive as a scientist than I was before. I'm two or three times faster to find a cure for cancer than I.

[Ryan Grim]

Was before because I have this incredible external brain that just didn't exist six months ago. I think this will be one of these moments of just an absolute embarrassment of riches, of what people go create for collective society. I am absolutely certain that we are.

[Krystal Ball]

Literally on the brink of a new generation of technology that can make us our better selves. Can make us our better selves. That's the pitch. And look, I mean, there are certain aspects that I'm sure will be beneficial. They like to sell the population possible benefits of, like, medical breakthroughs, et cetera.

[Ryan Grim]

That'd be nice. Just focus on that, guys.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, let's just do those pieces.

[Ryan Grim]

Show us you can make some medical breakthroughs, then come back and make us our better selves.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. And be like. And we're gonna eliminate all of the necessity of human labor, by the way. And some of this is already happening. Let's put this up on the screen from Klarna, which isn't Klarna, the thing where, like, when you go to pay for something online, it's like you can pay an installment instance, like this sort of consumer loan. They've been having some trouble recently because of consumer sentiment, but in any case, they announced that they already used AI to shrink their workforce by 40%, they said. The CEO said, the truth is the company has shrunk from about 5,000 to now almost 3,000 employees. If you go to LinkedIn and look at the jobs, you'll see how we're shrinking. And if you talk to the leaders of the AI revolution to a person, they will all tell you that the goal is to eliminate as much human labor as possible. And look, maybe in a world where you have like a large universal basic income or some sort of ability to function as a like economic political society, and imagine that there might be some solution for this type of mass disruption larger than the Industrial revolution in a shorter period of time, that's what they're at least promising to deliver. Then maybe you could imagine a non dystopian version of this. But as things sit today in US society where we can't even do things like give parents paid overtime, it's hard to imagine this working out in a way that is beneficial for the masses, especially since it's controlled by these few highly concentrated tech giants.

[Ryan Grim]

And this one itself is particularly symbolic because it's a company that is basically a payday lender trying to grease the wheels of consumption for people who aren't getting paid enough to be able to make ends meet. So there's this company that'll come in and give you a little loan and the terms are great, unless you don't pay it and then the terms are terrible. And so the argument from AI is we can do this high tech payday lending with fewer employees, right?

[Krystal Ball]

So we're not even getting like the job creation of the payday lender. It's just like concentrating all of the wealth extraction in the hands of just a few people. Just a few people. We're going to make sure that that happens.

[Ryan Grim]

It's like, oh good, okay, great, thanks. That's nice.

[Krystal Ball]

That makes me feel about, you know, we mentioned the abundance guys earlier. Derek has been doing some work on suggesting that some of this AI job replacement among white collar employees may already be happening. That there are increasing indications. I mean, one of the things they point to is the number of college graduates who are going straight to law school. Now that's also kind of a recession indicator. So it could be that going on.

[Ryan Grim]

Also guys, be careful. Like AI can write legal briefs.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, and that's the thing. And you know, you can imagine if you're a big law firm, instead of hiring, I don't know, 20 of the new associates, you hire five and you give them ChatGPT and a lot of law briefs are a lot of like grunt legal work is very sort of copy and paste. Especially the corporate filings are just basically like pro form. And you sub in this company's name instead of that company's name and their valuation instead of their evaluation, whatever.

[Ryan Grim]

What they're finding though is that these AI models are just fabricating a bunch of stuff. Like they're writing these legal briefs and citing cases that don't exist, completely misreading cases that do exist, applying law, making up laws that don't actually exist and putting them in. And you can tell that men designed all of this because it's done with complete authority. I can tell you all about that case. Well, and the thing is, this is completely wrong.

[Krystal Ball]

It really messes with each two because it'll be like, you know, 20 citations and 19 of them are spot on. And then one buried in there is just totally made up, just completely fabricated.

[Ryan Grim]

And so the thing that college graduates are hired for at these white collar jobs is, you know, producing memos for the boss, like organizing, doing research, being Excel spreadsheets. Excel spreadsheets, like. And that's how you learn what the company does, learn how to work in a company and then rise to the ranks and then become one of the people telling the college graduates what to do if those jobs all get cut out. How does that 22 year old then become the 32 year old who's in the mid job and become the 45 year old who's higher up? You're breaking the entire thing.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. I have a daughter who is going to be going to College and she's 17, she has one more year of high school and I think she knows what she wants to do. But if I were to give sort of like broad advice about what would be the right careers to go into that would be like AI proof. It's not an easy thing to figure out. Not an easy thing to figure out at all. Because yeah, most of those entry level white collar jobs that you would get coming out of college seems like they could be hugely impacted by even what we already have, let alone wherever the development ultimately goes. And again, I guess it'd be one thing if there was some sort of a natural conversation about what we're going to do about that, but there's not. It's just total no brakes on the car. We're in a race with China and we have to win consequences. We're not even going to think about what the fallout is going to be. And we think about how profoundly Our society has been changed by the smartphone and by specifically algorithmic social media. We can't even cope with that apparently.

[Ryan Grim]

Right.

[Krystal Ball]

And now we're going to be, you know, have an ambient tech that's informing, you know, that's talking to our brains all the time and you know, feeding us answers or insights or you know, writing our essays or whatever constantly. It's just I don't think anyone can really anticipate what the fallout could be.

[Ryan Grim]

Well, luckily the textile mills are coming back so they can work there.

[Krystal Ball]

Are they? Are they?

[Ryan Grim]

Nobody here knows how to sew though, so that's a problem.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, and certainly. Yeah. Well that was the other thing when Lutnick was talking about like the millions, army of millions to screw in little, little screws. If you listen to the whole quote, he actually says, no, that will actually be robots that will be doing that.

[Ryan Grim]

And he's like, this is out of context. What you'll actually be doing is you'll be working on the ropes.

[Krystal Ball]

Right? Right. But that won't change.

[Ryan Grim]

And your kids and your grandkids will also be able to work on the robots.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

Not the most inspiring vision of the future.

[Krystal Ball]

And why wouldn't you have other robots working on the robots?

[Ryan Grim]

I guess the robots are gonna break eventually and the other robots can't figure it out.

[Krystal Ball]

Maybe, maybe there's some role for the human being in there. All right guys, thank you so much for hanging with us today. Ryan and Emily are gonna do the Friday show tomorrow. I'm sure they're gonna will be many things for them to discuss and we are actually going to take Memorial Day off. Enjoy a long weekend. Let our crew and every everybody enjoy a long weekend. So we'll see you back here next week with a detailed agent directory you won't find anywhere else. Homes.com is the only place to find the in depth info. Home shop shoppers want very in depth info. Looking for a listing agent's contact info. We've got it. The agent with the most sales in your price range. Easy specialized agents with all the up to date info on your dream neighborhood. We'll know them. A Pisces who enjoys long walks on the beach. You've got other sites for that. Homes.com. we've done your homework. Have you ever felt that uneasy anxiety when the 4pm hour strikes? The creeping meal related distress that happens when you don't quite feel prepared, you know, dinner dread. Let's get rid of that unpleasant feeling forever with one Stouffer's. No matter what happens, you'll have a dinner planned that everyone loves with Stouffer's, some chicken enchiladas or a cheesy chicken and broccoli pasta. Bake is always welcome, whether it's Plan A or Plan Delicious. When the clock strikes dinner, think Stouffer's. Shop now for family favorites. You know, some people say that Odoo business management software is like fertilizer, the.

[Ryan Grim]

Way it promotes growth and all. But other people say Odoo is like a magic beanstalk because it grows with your company and is also magically affordable.

[Krystal Ball]

And there's some people who would even say Odoo's individual software programs come together.

[Ryan Grim]

To build the perfect suite. Like building blocks. Well, Odoo is all of these things. Fertilizer, magic beanstalk, building blocks for business. So sign up [e-mail] o d o o dot com.

[Krystal Ball]

You're listening to an iHeart podc.