5/2/25: Walz Gets Ousted, Trump Judge Blocks Deportations, Rand Paul Trashes Tariffs & MORE!

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - Episode Summary Episode Title: Walz Gets Ousted, Trump Judge Blocks Deportations, Rand Paul Trashes Tariffs & MORE!
Release Date: May 2, 2025
Hosts: Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti
Duration: Approximately 25 minutes of content

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1. Introduction and Overview

At the outset of the episode, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti dive directly into a series of breaking news stories impacting the political landscape. Skipping the initial advertisements and promotional segments, the hosts immediately address significant developments involving key political figures and legislative actions.

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2. Mike Waltz's Departure from the NSA

Timestamp: [02:08] - [09:20]

Key Points:

• Mike Waltz Ousted: Mike Waltz has been removed from his position as National Security Advisor (NSA) and reassigned as the U.N. Ambassador. The administration portrays this move as a lateral shift rather than a demotion, though Krystal Ball expresses skepticism.

• Usage of Communication Apps: It was initially believed Waltz was using Signal on the day of his firing. However, it was later revealed he was using Telemessage, an Israeli tech firm's version of Signal, designed to comply with federal record-keeping laws.

• Security Concerns: Krystal and Saagar discuss the implications of using Telemessage, noting that it archives messages, potentially allowing access by Israeli intelligence officials. This raises alarms about the security of communications within the national security team.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal Ball: "It sounds even better because that tech firm would plausibly have access to all of these messages sent by our national security team." [02:44]
• Saagar Enjeti: "It reminds me of when Trump tried to end the war without a solid plan. He's flailing now." [33:04]

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3. Ukraine Minerals Deal and Its Implications

Timestamp: [10:13] - [45:16]

Key Points:

• Deal Details: The newly signed Ukraine minerals deal has evolved to be more favorable towards Ukraine compared to earlier drafts. It includes the U.S. receiving 50% of revenues from various natural resources, including oil and natural gas.

• Strategic Partnership: The agreement aims to strengthen the U.S.-Ukraine strategic partnership, potentially serving as a de facto security guarantee for Ukraine by making U.S. investment in Ukrainian minerals a pivotal factor in the ongoing conflict with Russia.

• Political Maneuvering: Krystal highlights how President Trump uses this deal to appear as a deal-maker and align with billionaire interests, contrasting it with Biden's more status-quo approach.

• Public and Political Reactions: There is a mixed reaction from the Republican base, with some supporting the deal as a win, while others, like Laura Loomer, criticize its implications. Rand Paul also voices opposition to Trump’s tariffs, aligning with concerns over economic policies.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal Ball: "This obligates the US to Ukraine in perpetuity." [12:15]
• Emily Jashinsky: "Donald Trump understands how significant foreign policy is for his voters in a way the media often doesn't." [34:54]
• Saagar Enjeti: "The whole thing just seems kind of fake to me, like it's going to be overtaken by events." [39:54]

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4. Trump-Appointed Judge Blocks Alien Enemies Act Deportations

Timestamp: [48:24] - [62:54]

Key Points:

• Court Ruling: A Trump-appointed judge has ruled that the administration's use of the Alien Enemies Act (AEA) to deport migrants is illegal. The judge determined that invoking the AEA in the context of the Trenda Aragua case was unlawful.

• Legal Implications: The ruling not only affects individual deportation cases but also signals that the administration cannot rely on the AEA for mass deportations. This poses a significant setback to Trump’s immigration policies.

• Administration's Strategy: Krystal and Saagar discuss the administration's reluctance to approach Congress for new legislation, likely due to the necessity of securing a 60-vote majority, which is currently unattainable. Instead, the administration continues aggressive deportation tactics despite legal hurdles.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal Ball: "The court concludes that as a matter of law, the executive branch cannot rely on the AEA." [52:38]
• Emily Jashinsky: "The administration knew they were stretching the law with the AEA." [52:37]

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5. Jim Jordan and Antitrust Reform Battle

Timestamp: [63:00] - [72:55]

Key Points:

• Antitrust Legislation: Jim Jordan, a prominent Republican figure, attempted to shift the FTC's antitrust enforcement to the Department of Justice (DOJ), a move perceived as weakening the FTC's power against Big Tech.

• Pushback and Reversal: Under pressure from Steve Bannon and other allies, Jordan backed down from this proposal, signaling a significant win for those opposing the dilution of antitrust regulations.

• Political Dynamics: The episode explores the tension between conservative antitrust proponents and MAGA-aligned figures like Bannon, highlighting the internal conflicts within the GOP regarding Big Tech and regulatory policies.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal Ball: "Jim Jordan has been exposed as a toady for Big Tech." [66:00]
• Saagar Enjeti: "He strips the FTC of all its antitrust enforcement power, which is a huge shot." [67:15]

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6. Rand Paul Criticizes Trump Tariffs

Timestamp: [72:22] - [74:54]

Key Points:

• Rand Paul’s Opposition: Senator Rand Paul voices his opposition to President Trump’s tariff policies, comparing a meeting with Trump's trade representative to interactions with a "czar" in the Soviet Union.

• Legislative Hurdles: Paul attempted to pass a resolution to reclaim congressional power over tariff levies but fell short by one vote in the Senate, highlighting the challenges of moving anti-tariff legislation through a closely divided chamber.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal Ball: "Rand Paul is pushing against tariffs, which is a bridge too far for him ideologically." [74:35]
• Saagar Enjeti: "Rand Paul interpreting this from his own boss, which is, 'I'm the freaking boss.'" [69:40]

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7. Conclusion and Looking Ahead

Timestamp: [74:35] - [End]

Krystal Ball wraps up the main discussion by emphasizing the consolidation of power within the executive branch and the challenges faced by legislators like Jim Jordan and Rand Paul in countering policies that favor large corporations and executive overreach. The episode concludes with a tease of premium content for subscribers, ensuring listeners remain engaged for deeper analysis.

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Key Takeaways:

• Political Realignments: The episode highlights significant shifts within the Republican Party, particularly in response to internal and external pressures regarding foreign policy, immigration, and economic regulations.

• Security and Privacy Concerns: The move from Signal to Telemessage by Mike Waltz underscores ongoing vulnerabilities in government communications and the broader implications for national security.

• Foreign Policy and Economic Interests: The Ukraine minerals deal serves as a focal point for discussing the intersection of economic interests and military aid, raising questions about the long-term sustainability and ethical implications of such agreements.

• Legal Challenges to Executive Power: The ruling against the Alien Enemies Act's use in deportations signifies potential limitations on executive authority, potentially altering the administration's immigration strategies.

• Internal GOP Conflicts: The struggle over antitrust legislation and tariff policies reveals deeper ideological divides within the GOP, influenced by figures like Steve Bannon and Rand Paul.

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Notable Quotes:

• Krystal Ball: "The court concludes that as a matter of law, the executive branch cannot rely on the AEA." [52:38]
• Saagar Enjeti: "It reminds me of when Trump tried to end the war without a solid plan. He's flailing now." [33:04]
• Emily Jashinsky: "Donald Trump understands how significant foreign policy is for his voters in a way the media often doesn't." [34:54]
• Krystal Ball: "Jim Jordan has been exposed as a toady for Big Tech." [66:00]

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This detailed summary captures the essence of the episode, focusing on the critical discussions and insights shared by Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti. The inclusion of notable quotes with accurate timestamps provides depth and attribution, making it valuable for listeners who seek a comprehensive overview without tuning into the full episode.

Transcript

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Sagar and Krystal here.

[Krystal Ball]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Emily Jashinsky]

This is the only place where you.

[Krystal Ball]

Can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Emily Jashinsky]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you@breaking points.com.

[Krystal Ball]

Happy Friday, y'all. How's everybody doing this morning?

[Emily Jashinsky]

Doing great. We're on, baby.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Wild to see you guys.

[Krystal Ball]

Good to see you guys, too. Bunch of stuff that was breaking right after our show yesterday. A bunch of moves. Mike waltz out at nsa and Ryan, I think you have a scoop with regard to some of his last acts in that position. Correct.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. People thought that he was caught using Signal on the day that he was fired for his is poor signal use. But it turns out he was using an Israeli tech firm's version of Signal.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, that sounds even better because that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Tech firm, that tech firm kind of makes a copy of everybody's messages so you could keep it. So it might comply with record keeping rules in the federal government. But it also means that the Israeli tech firm would plausibly who and which is made up of former Israeli intel officials would have access to these, you know, potentially would have access to all of these messages sent by our national security team.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Right. Is this, is this because people saw the Reuters picture of him in the cabinet meeting. Was he using the app then? That's, that was the Israeli tech firm's app.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yep. Yeah, because. And if you, if you look close enough and we have a story over at drop site that, that people can read if you look close enough at it. It's, it's not the Signal app. It's, this is really tech firms app.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, so we'll get into that. We got more details on the Ukraine minerals deal. Emily and I covered the outlines of it yesterday. I'm curious to get Ryan's take on, on that and where we are with regard to ending hopefully one day the Ukraine, Russia war. We had this also we kind of previewed yesterday, Emily, a Trump appointed judge has now blocked the, his invocation of the Alien enemies Act. And we were just saying yesterday that we expected that to come at some point. And then lo and behold, basically after we finish the show, you get exactly that ruling. We've got also a bunch of stuff that's going to be in the premium section, including a really interesting clip of Tucker and Matt Walsh and Tucker kind of calling him out with regard to Israel, sort of casually calling him out on that. And a really horrific new development there, drones attacking and aid flotilla that was headed to Gaza. Also Trump weighing in on virgins because that's something we all wanted and Mark Zuckerberg wanting all of us to have more robot friends. So things, things are going good guys.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Things are going good and maybe questions as well if we have time for them.

[Krystal Ball]

Questions from the question. So we, we put on a post for premium subscribers. We're going to take a few questions at the end from the comments you guys submitted. So again, you know, we're going to do a bunch of stuff for the free show and then we'll have some Bonus content for premium subscribers, including those questions. If you guys want to become a premium subscriber, go to breaking points.com and appreciate all of you guys for making the show possible. You know, an expansion at this moment of economic uncertainty is a bit of a risk, but you guys make it so that we're able to do it. So shall we go ahead and dive in here, guys?

[Emily Jashinsky]

Let's do it.

[Krystal Ball]

All right. So Mike Waltz out at nsa. He is being given the consolation prize of UN Ambassador, which the administration is trying to spin is like, oh, that's definitely not a demotion. That's like totally the same level of prestige and import as NSA director. But I'm going to pull up this, this element. But first, just guys weigh in on, on that piece, which is kind of preposterous. Nikki Haley's old job, in other words.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah. J.D. vance has. Has tried to say you can plausibly make. I think he said you can make a good faith argument that it's a promotion, which is a really funn saying. Well, if you kind of stretch and squint, you can see how maybe this would look kind of like a promotion. Of course, it's not. The amount of power that you wield as NSA is significantly more than the amount of power you wield as a UN Ambassador, where you're largely a figurehead and an important figurehead nonetheless. Something to be said for that. But I think it was Trump's way of not completely capitulating to the media firestorm over Waltz while also, you know, getting him out of his tight inner circle.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, go ahead, Ryan.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right. Yeah. The reporting was all that Trump did not want to look like he was the chaos agent of Trump. One he really regretted, you know, all the people that he fired within, you know, the first several, even weeks of his administration. And so he was like, I'm not firing this guy under pressure because I don't want to. I don't want to do that again. So he waited and then sort of didn't fire him, just moved him over, but did fire him. So. Yeah, you know.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, no, I mean, there's something like from just a last time around, you could get someone fired if you were inside the administration with strategic leaks. And it created just from like a management perspective an impossible situation because people were constantly. They realized the power of their leaking. They could sideline people. It was just like straight up Hunger Games. And so.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Or probably can only be done by Laura Loomer.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

Now you've consolidated the firing power.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yes. So it's A much more efficient process.

[Krystal Ball]

Let me go ahead and play this because we do have video of like, this is, this is really, this is really cool. We have video of him like getting the news he's going to board Air Force One and then someone comes over to him and is like, yeah, you're, you're not going to be on this trip. And then he's like, escort escorted off the tarmac. Let me go ahead and play this for you guys so we can, we can see the moment that it all went down. And Mike, Walter, we know this traveled on Marine One with him.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Oh my gosh, Caitlyn at two times.

[Krystal Ball]

That is 2.0 was a little too early for that. Here we go.

[Unknown Speaker]

That's his figure. He does not get on Air Force One. It's only about a 10 minute flight. So it's extremely odd to, to take the helicopter flight and then not actually go on the trip. I was told he was not supposed to go on the trip. And so people raised questions about what this moment meant. So we've been asking White House officials about it and essentially just got to a point where he didn't have a lot of confidence, not of the president, not of his senior staff. And he was told, I was told earlier this week that his time as the national security adviser had come to an end and it was time for him to leave. And now we are told that he will be departing and so will his.

[Emily Jashinsky]

So he took.

[Krystal Ball]

That is cold right there.

[Emily Jashinsky]

So he took Marine One to Joint Base Andrews, Is that what they're saying? And didn't get on Air Force One. That's brutal. That's mean girls type stuff.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Also, it's so obnoxious that all of these guys take helicopters to Andrews.

[Krystal Ball]

Like it's like five right there.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Taking, taking Uber guys.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, in fairness, the traffic in D.C. can be really bad.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's true, that's true. Yeah. But he can, he can work from his phone, so what's it, what's it matter? But yes. To like get turned around on that is. I mean, you sign up to work for Trump, you know, you are most likely it's like life. You're signing up for a brutal end. It's just going to come a lot faster and it's going to be even more brutal. And you know what he get? He got. How many Scaramuccis did he get? Maybe eight.

[Krystal Ball]

He got a few.

[Sagar Enjeti]

But now he gets to be UN Ambassador, so that'll be cool.

[Krystal Ball]

That's not bad.

[Sagar Enjeti]

New York City, you can go to restaurants and it'll be fine.

[Krystal Ball]

Imagine being Elise Stefanik right now. Oh, no.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Seriously?

[Krystal Ball]

Who? Okay, just so people recall, she was supposed to be UN Ambassador. She's in Congress. She's supposed to be UN Ambassador. But they picked. Well, they pulled Matt Gaetz, you know, they were going to make him ag and then he ends up pulling himself out of contention. But that's one House. Then you've got Mike Waltz is pulled. And then isn't there one more that they pulled out of the House into the administration and they basically with Stefanic. I'm sorry, I know you're in like our plus 20 district, but we're not all that confident that you're going to be able to. We're going to be able to put a Republican in that seat after you, so you have to stay. So now she not only has to deal with the, like, the sting of she thought she was going to be U ambassador, but she's not. But now, so also the degradation of, like them using this as some sort of a consolation prize for Mike Waltz, who was her colleague in the House as well. Like, that's, that's a rough hand, that one.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Then she gave up her leadership post to accept this nomination to be UN Ambassador. And so now she's back in Congress and it's sort of put them at a loss because they're trying to figure out how to let Elise Stefanik come back into Congress in a leadership post or in a post that makes her feel like she's leadership adjacent. So it's been a really brutal few months for her. She's. She sacrificed for the cause and is not getting rewarded for it.

[Krystal Ball]

And then the other piece of this. So Waltz is over to the UN and then the person who at least for now is replacing him is Marco Rubio, who already is wearing a bunch of different hats. So he is already obviously Secretary of State now USAID Administrator, US Archivist. I didn't even, I didn't even know this one. Apparently he's also the head of the U.S. archives and now also National Security Advisor. So I don't know if he's going to stay indefinitely as nsa, but that's where who has been filled in right now. So, you know, to the, the ideological piece. Rubio is also a hawk. I mean, Waltz is a hawk. That's, you know, part of why Loomer and others wanted him out of there. I certainly wanted him out of there as well. Rubio is not really an improvement, though.

[Sagar Enjeti]

He's reconstructed, though. Emily, give us the pro Rubio case.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, I was going to say Walt is an unreconstructed neocon, packages himself as a reconstructed neocon. But Rubio is sincerely a reconstructed neocon, not that he is, to be very clear, does not have the foreign policy of someone like J.D. vance or Tucker Carlson. He's still fairly hawkish against China, but he's definitely shifted significantly in very sincere ways. But the question is, do your ambitions also allow you to be co opted by the unreconstructed neoconservatives who do still work in these high level positions and the foreign policy establishment? Because you also kind of came in with the residue of neoconservatism. So it's not like we're putting Tucker Carlson in these positions.

[Krystal Ball]

To be very clear, my impression of Rubio is he's reconstructed as just like a total and complete Trump, Trump sycophant. Like whatever Trump's ideology is today, that's what Marco Rubio's ideology is going to be. That. We saw that on full display at that grotesque North Korea style cabinet meeting this week, which is just, I mean it really, this is one of the key Characteristics of Trump 2.0. Not to say it wasn't there in Trump 1.0, but the levels of just Dear Leader, you know, bootlicking are off the charts. They have reached grotesque new levels. And you know, to that point too, I don't know if you guys saw the news that Trump is planning on throwing himself this giant military parade in D.C. for his birthday. I mean, this is, this shit is incredibly disturbing to be like, just disturbing.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Isn't it also like the anniversary of the army or something like that? I have to pull the article back up. It's an AP story and it's, it happens to fall on his birthday, but it's also like the army. Is that the.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Always find something that falls on your birthday.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Every day is a holiday.

[Krystal Ball]

Very true. All right, let's, let's get to this signal, Israeli signal story. Ryan, I don't know if you could pull up the drop site thing, but let me first pull up, let me pull up this real quick. So here's the image that this is pulled from that cabinet meeting, the North Korea cabinet meeting where this is Mike Waltz. I mean, you can fully read a text here from the Vice President, United States. You can see Tulsi Gabbards in there. You can see Witkoff, you can see Rubio. I'm not sure who that other, the one above Gabbard is. Maybe Emily knows. But in any case, everyone was looking at this. And like, oh, my God, you know, here he is using Signal in the middle of the cabinet meeting. And you can read some of the text messages just from the photo photography. And then this guy points out, actually, no, it appears they're using an Israeli firm's archiver wrapper app called Telemessage. Hence, the TM signal in the pin pop up means they're attempting to archive to comply with federal records laws. But I'm skeptical of security implications. And then. Ryan, why don't you pick up with your reporting?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, so it popped up because. Because of this thing right here where it said, verify your TM SGNL pin. I remember. I saw that, too. And I was like, that's not. That's. That's as you. I'm sure you guys noticed, too. That's not Signal. Like, you know, Signal says, verify your signal pin. So this is a firm called Telemessage, and they have this software called Signal Capture. So Signal is. Is open source, but you need a license to use it. Signal would not confirm that they had given us a license or that they had given this Israeli firm a license. But let's. Let me find this quote. We did get a quote from them where they say, we cannot guarantee the privacy or security properties of unofficial versions of Signal. So this is an unofficial version of Signal. Like, basically what it's doing is using the signal base, so the messages should be secure, you know, end to end. But then it makes a copy of them, and it puts it somewhere, and we don't know where. We don't. Is it. Is it putting the copy in some White House server? Is it putting it in some server that this Israeli firm controls, but then licenses back to the. To the White House? This was something that was put together on the fly. You had Carolyn Levitt say recently that the administration was working to solve the problem of transparency and of recordkeeping because, you know, under the Record Keeping act, you're required to keep, you know, official communications between. Between members, and Signal disappears messages. So this seems to be the answer to what Caroline Levitt was saying was the solution that they were coming up with. But, okay, that's a. It's a good thing that you would do that. But because they slapped it together so quickly, they just went out and got. This is really firm. And so, uh, the. The firm is just completely stocked. It's top two. Its top two officials are former Israeli intelligence officials. A lot of, you know, and a lot of the engineers and other people who work for it also came out of Israeli intelligence And the kind of profile of the. The people that work there is similar to all of the Israeli spyware and surveillance companies. And I'll just read this part. Tech professionals have moved between companies like Telemessage and some of the leading Israeli spyware firms. For example, Alon Fala, a technical support manager at Telemessage until 2021, left the company to join NSO Group. According to his LinkedIn profile, NSO Group is the one that does Pegasus. Pegasus is the no click penetration software. You don't even have to click on anything and it will get into your phone. The US has alternately supported it and even tried to sanction it at times because it's dangerous. Another. Another employee joined Telemesis last year after a stint at Celebrate, maker of hardware and software widely used by law enforcement to extract data from smartphones.

[Krystal Ball]

So the thing with Pegasus is all you need to know is the person's phone number, Right? And what another thing we learned about, was it Walt or Hegseth?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Hegseth, but probably also Walt.

[Krystal Ball]

Probably. I mean, that their numbers were just like freely available online, easily obtainable. So I sort of assumed that the Israelis and probably a bunch of other foreign nations as well, already had access to all of these, all of these messages because, yeah, that, that Pegasus program allows you just to be able to get into someone's phone and all you need to know is the phone number, which is terrifying.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Although if you're, if you have your phone on lockdown mode and if there aren't any new exploits, it's difficult, you know, Pegasus is. Pegasus requires your phone either to, like, you have not been updated, you know, since the latest hack. And especially if you have it on lockdown mode, Pegasus can't really get in. And also apparently it costs something like a million dollars a shot. Wow. It's extremely expensive. So, like, it reminds me of who was a Chris Rock who was saying, we don't need gun control, we need bullet control. Like, make the bullets, you know, cost $20,000 and you're going to reduce crime. And so if it costs a million dollars to fire off a hacking attempt at, say, Hegseth, you're going to be careful about how many times you do that. Whereas if Mike Waltz and Hegseth and all these others who are using Signal just went to the app Store and download downloaded this Israeli app, boom. Like they're in.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, Ryan, do we have an indication of when they did that is, do we know that it happened after Signal Gate, or could it. Is it plausible that they were already Using this. And are they using both versions of Signal? Because I'm wondering how contacts work. Like the Jeffrey Goldberg thing, how he just gets quote unquote sucked in. The reporting is that it came straight from Waltz's contact where like Apple Intelligence had saved Goldberg's phone number because his aide sent it, and when he was going to save his AIDS number, it sucked in Goldberg's number.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Emily Jashinsky]

So I'm just wondering, like, what the, what that might mean.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I mean, we don't, we don't know when they started using it. It would stand to reason that they started using it after they got busted using regular signal. And then we're told, hey, FYI, this is a, this is a violation of the Record Keeping act, so we need to figure out a solution. And so then they're, then they're like, okay, well what kind of app can we get that uses Signal as its base but also makes a copy? And the way that Signal is vulnerable is the exact way that Jeffrey Goldberg got in there. User error, you know, user error. And the device itself, like because it's end to end encrypted, you can't get in unless you're in the person's device or they accidentally send you something. So what this app does is it creates extra vulnerabilities because it's taking the data, the messages that are on Mike Waltz's phone, and copying them onto another device somewhere. Like, we don't know where, like some server somewhere. So then now you have two points of vulnerability where a hacker could get in or an intelligence company could get in. If the intelligence officials have access to that, separate that second server because they set it up through the spyware firm or through this Israeli tech firm, then they would just be able to read right into it.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And this is really low hanging fruit. But I just want to say you can see in that picture that you guys used in dropsite from Reuters, he has a reporter's behind him. So he's sitting at the table and he is openly on his signal. He's not like covering the screen. He doesn't have a screen protector. He has a message from the Vice President of the United States up on his screen, including also Marco Rubio. He has a call from Tulsi Gabbard that just came in. But there is a message that you can read from J.D. vance, something about his counterpart. We don't know where, we don't have all of the context. But if you are a reporter sitting behind him, there are a lot of foreign reporters, by the way, that are in the White House press pool. And so it is just is low hanging fruit. But so enormously stupid for him to be at a cabinet meeting with the press directly behind his shoulder.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Not with, with cameras.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Have long lens cameras. Yeah, of course, but like also they're standing five feet behind you. I, I cannot wrap my head around.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The stupidity of what you last point on this be. If people think that I'm being unfair and suggesting that Israel might actually have the, the motivation to spy on the United States. There's a paragraph in the story that says sums it up. Well, in 1998, Israel was identified by the National Counterintelligence center to be on the Department of Energy's sensitive country list. In a 2000 report, NCIC listed Israel as one of the, quote, most active collectors of intelligence against the private sector, unquote. In 2019, the US government determined that Israel had most likely planted stingray surveillance devices that mimic cell phone towers around the White House. If you remember that scandal. Intending to spy on President Donald Trump and his top aides. According to a Politico report, Israel denied those allegations. But they're in line, I forgot about with many other stories that we've heard from decades, decades.

[Krystal Ball]

We know, we know that they have great interest in what we're going to do vis a vis Iran. So they have every incentive to know what, you know, Pete Hegseth and Mike Waltz and all these other characters are saying to each other in signal. I mean, to be honest with you, I'm a little surprised that they reacted all at all to the revelation that like, hey, using signal like this is actually illegal because you are not complying with FOIA requirements. I'm actually a little bit shocked that they cared at all about that and weren't just like, yeah, we're just going to keep doing it. We really don't care for you, basically, you know, so get out of here.

[Sagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

Just to go back to the the Laura Loomer piece of this, you know, Emily, what do we know about or or Ryan, either one of you, what do we know about her involvement? Because we know she went to the White House the other a couple weeks back and she got some other officials fired, but not Mike Waltz. And also by the way, it was what his, his like chief of staff or his like top aide also was was shown the door here and Waltz, of course to be technically correct, being moved over to UN ambassador. But anyway and she had indicated she had some video that was going to be very damaging to Waltz as well. So I mean, what do we know about her involvement? I did see an Axios report that also said that people just kind of didn't like Waltz like outside of an ideological basis. Like J.D. vance had pulled him aside on the Greenland trip and was trying to explain to him you have to work better with people. Apparently he treated Susie Wiles poorly, which seems like about the dumbest thing you could possibly do doing. Right?

[Emily Jashinsky]

So it's about as dumb as using signal to talk to the vice president in front of reporters.

[Krystal Ball]

In front of reporters, right?

[Sagar Enjeti]

An Israeli tech firm version of Signal.

[Krystal Ball]

I feel like there was a coalescing, a sort of horseshoe between an ideological distaste for Mike Waltz and just a. This guy's an idiot. He doesn't know what he's doing and we don't like him and we don't want him around anymore.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah. Bear in mind, this is the national security advisor. So he's like, can't even protect his own security, let alone the nation's security, is national security advisor. But, yes, there's reporting that Susie Wiles thought he had been, quote, too big for his britches. And so I assume when the president, United States is taking meetings with Laura Loomer, who is floating the possibility of some deeply damaging video. The guy has already embarrassed the administration, had the weakest appearance on primetime Fox News that you could possibly conjure. And he was already. He came into the administration with a massive trust deficit with people that are in the more realist foreign policy circles. The, like, America First MAGA foreign policy circles have always been suspicious of Mike Waltz and definitely of the people he surrounds himself with. So it's not insignificant that Laura Loomer, in that White House meeting, seems to have named Alex Wong, who was a top advisor to Mike Waltz, who was actually out the door yesterday, somebody who does have. Now, Laura Loomer is constantly invoking that he's Chinese and invokes his wife's ties to the foreign policy establishment. So that's sort of in the air about, you know, the. The conversation, or it's part of the conversation that's been had about Alex Wong. I have no idea what the validity of all of the accusations against him are, but his pedigree is from the foreign policy establishment. And that's exactly why people have not always trusted Mike, Walt and Ryan. You actually might even know more about the Loomer of it all.

[Sagar Enjeti]

She said she would come on the show next week, so we can ask her then. But yeah, she, she, she. She was hitting Alex Wong with, like, really not even veiled kind of, you know, like going after his Chinese ethnicity and saying he was like, had, like, secret links to the ccp. And you're like, this is a little much. So we, we can. We can ask her about that next week. Looking forward to. But yes, she came in.

[Emily Jashinsky]

It's like how I suspect you have secret links to the ira.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's why we have, to Loomer's credit, she came in to the Oval Office with Mike Waltz present and ripped him to shreds, like, in front of him. And now he's fired like that. You get, like, tip of the hat to Loomer for that.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, I mean, remember during the campaign, Susie Wilds had Loomer kicked off the campaign plane before. I guess she had been with Trump before the first debate. And then after that, they, Susie Wiles said this. You cannot be around this woman anymore. So when you have the. The partnership between Loomer and Susie Wiles, they come together to, you know, to get you out of there, then I think you're probably, you're probably done. That unstoppable combination. I'm going to guess what if she.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Strategically brought Loomer back in to.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I think there's no question. There's no question. That is exactly what happened.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Amazing.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You do not f. With Susie Wiles.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Amazing.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Like, are you crazy? Like, yeah, she absolutely ushered him in. Ushered her in and was like, go. Go to town, Laura.

[Krystal Ball]

They said he treated her like she was a staffer to him. And which also, I mean, to me.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Just like, I'll show you what a staffer does. A staffer books. 30 minutes in the Oval with Laura Loomer.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, like, we'll see how this goes for you. Yes, we'll just see how this goes for you. I wanted to get to this Ukraine minerals deal that has now been signed. We now have more details than yesterday when Emily and I were talking about it. Plus, I wanted to get Ryan's reaction to this. So you guys remember this minerals deal was sort of. Zelensky had this idea, Lindsey Graham had this idea, and there were some Trump aligned billionaires who also had this idea. Basically a way to pitch a transactional relationship to Trump vis a vis Ukraine that would keep him invested in the conflict. And this deal was subject to, you know, this was what Zelensky had come to the US for before when they had that big blow up in the Oval Office. And now some of the details here have changed. It's actually become much more favorable towards Ukraine. It's still basically like, you know, a lot of economic exploitation, but it's not quite as exploitative as the original deal had been. And so we've got a thread here from Michael Tracy, who read all the details and has a breakdown here. He says the text, the minerals deal that was signed yesterday is substantially different from earlier drafts. For one, it says that future US Military assistance to Ukraine, not past assistance, will constitute capital contributions to newly established joint investment fund. This can now be presented as the US in some sense getting quote, unquote paid for continuing to arm Ukraine, which Could be a useful political argument for continuing to arm Ukraine, but with a more profitable deal. He goes on. The agreement contemplates that Ukraine could or will receive reparations for the invasion from Russia. This may come as news to Russia. Um, yeah, good luck with that one. Compared to past drafts, U.S. ownership of Ukraine's physical infrastructure appears to have been watered down with legalese. But the US receives 50% of the revenues from a large variety of natural resources, including oil and natural gas. The agreement is purported to strengthen the strategic partnership between the US and Ukraine and establish a long term strategic alignment between the US and Ukraine, including support for, quote, Ukraine's security. And that was kind of the idea here is that by having US investment in Ukrainian minerals and US capitalists profiting off of Ukrainian minerals, that would serve as a sort of like de facto security guarantee for Ukraine because we wouldn't want the Russians messing with our capitalist stuff. One oddity would be people who castigate Ukraine for corruption and denounce the Biden family for profiting from Ukraine related graft. CHEERING this sweeping economic and security integration between the US and Ukraine without regard for whatever graft it's likely to induce a point that our own Emily Jashinsky made yesterday as well. So Ryan, you know, what is your reaction to, to this development and the signing of this Ukrainian minerals deal? What it means for this war going forward?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right, yeah, it's their hold my beer moment. Like you, what's this like penny anti $50,000 a month retainer corruption you're doing with this energy company? You know, just extort and exploit the entire country.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Just take oil and gas, let's do lithium.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I noticed on the screen there that Big balls is to. I don't like. What, what, what is Big balls still doing? I thought Doge was, was wrapping things.

[Krystal Ball]

Up, but they did some interview with Jesse Waters I think yesterday. So that's probably.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh my goodness. Okay. I mean every, every country is claiming to have these rare earths. And the real problem is the re. Is the refinement ability. Like can you, can you get them out and can you turn them into the products that are then needed? And that's, that's the real problem. The rare earths are not actually that rare. So yeah, this is, this seems like just a gimmick to try to. Which Lindsey Graham like, said publicly it was a gimmick. Like he, he rolled out this map and he said, look, I know you're not into the war, you don't like all the killing, but look at this map. This is all money underneath the ground here. Wouldn't this be amazing if we could just have all this money? We're getting ripped off. We're giving them all this for nothing. Biden's an idiot. You can be a genius and have all these things and he, and he took it hook, line and sinker. Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, I was gonna say there's reporting that Chevron and Shell have tried to do big business. Like lots of like, like they have really tried to make money in Ukraine in recent years. And the corruption has been a significant impediment to that. And if it's too corrupt for Chevron and Shell to be able to feel comfortable making money, you can see the just enormous rat's nest that the United States has just injected itself. And now one of the significant differences that's worth mentioning of course between like Hunter Biden and general Ukrainian American corruption here is that this is in the service of hopefully putting us on a glide path to ending the slaughter.

[Sagar Enjeti]

But isn't it, isn't the attempt here.

[Emily Jashinsky]

To keep the slaughter going kind of to indefinitely? It does feel to me like something that makes it much more. And I think Tracy just made this point. It makes, doesn't come up with a long term solution to the conflict. If anything, it feels like it's going into slow burn territory.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's, that's like the stated goal of it.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah. Because the idea is this obligates the US to Ukraine in perpetuity. Now we have this locked in relationship. I had a quote in the show yesterday from somebody from the Council on Foreign Relations where they're basically like, you know, our investment in their geology is the, is a de facto security guarantee. And that's, that's the idea. I mean that's why Zelensky immediately, you know, being a savvy political operator, as soon as Biden loses, he switches the language from preserving democracy and we're in this fight against authoritarianism, whatever switches it to let's Make a Deal. And he had allies from Lindsey Graham, who also Emily and I covered yesterday, is now out with some big like let's sanction Russia somehow even harder than we were before, which appears to have very likely a veto proof majority in the Senate. We'll see if it comes up from, for a vote or not. But you know, that, that is the idea is effectively this would enable Ukraine to continue receiving weapons just in exchange for selling the, the country's geology out from under the people of the country. And it's also interesting to me, I'm curious What both of you guys think about this, that the terms of the deal have gotten much more favorable towards Ukraine since the, that Oval Office blow up meeting, when a lot of the reaction was like, oh, you know, Trump's done with Zelensky and it's over for him and they're just gonna, you know, they're gonna cut off communications altogether and he's screwed. Etc. And in the meantime, from that interaction to now, actually he won some significant concessions. They don't have to give up all their like, port infrastructure. The previous deal was basically like, we're taking half your country and that's it, end of story. This one is still, again, very exploitative, don't get me wrong. But it's not as bad as the first one. And then the really significant concession is, you'll recall Trump was really adamant about we want to get paid back for what we've already given you, what we've already shipped. And this agreement says no. I mean, that was always like sort of a preposterous demand, but this agreement says no. You know, this is just going to be on a moving forward basis. So what do you guys make of that, of that shift in the agreement and Zelensky seemingly getting some significant concessions here?

[Emily Jashinsky]

I think there are a couple of things behind it. First, Trump is now over his 100 day mark and has not secured a ceasefire in a conflict he said he could end on day one. As president, he understands how significant for his voters foreign policy is in a way that the media often doesn't understand. I mean, he has a lot of support in areas that are super war weary because they don't like, they're very, very, very cautious of entanglements that might end up with US boots on the ground. And it's a personal, sensitive issue for a lot of the places where he gets support from. And I think he understands that about his own voters in a way that media doesn't understand that about his own voters. So I think on the one hand he's very aware of how weak it makes him look if he's not able to secure to the, or secure a ceasefire. Because you guys are right. I mean, I don't think this is an end to the conflict over the Donbas or over Crimea by any means. An end, hopefully a step towards an end to the daily slaughter we will see. That is to be determined. But on the other hand, I also think Donald Trump really is, and I'm trying to say this without sounding like insulting, but he is really is as simple as you think, like he wants to look strong. He wants to look like he has made deals, and he wants to look like people have come crawling back to him. And as soon as people realize that, I mean, we talk a lot about the difference between Claudia Sheinbaum and Justin Trudeau and maybe now Mark Carney, but as soon as people realize that there is a very simple way to deal with Donald Trump, they can get gains. And I think Zelensky was sufficiently sort of chastened by even Lindsey Graham freaking out after that Oval Office meeting that he realized he wanted on Ben Shapiro show. He, you know, was talking to the press about how much he loves the United States. And they had that little conversation at the Vatican, literally in the basilica. And so I think Donald Trump on the one hand, is getting more eager, even more eager, to look like he has a political win on his hands and he's getting closer to a ceasefire. And then on the other hand, I feel like he thinks that he looks strong because Zelensky has come back to him to get the deal. Now, whether or not that's true, because the deal is now even more sweet for Ukraine, is a different question. But I think that's what Donald Trump saw, what he wanted to see from Zelensky, and it made him comfortable moving forward.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The whole thing just seems kind of fake to me, like in the sense that it's going to be overtaken by events. Like, it's like Ukraine is, as Trump very correctly said in the Oval Office, doesn't have any cards to play yet. Now Trump is like spending all his time playing cards with them. What are you doing? You take their chips? They don't have any chips. Like, Russia's taking their chips. So the whole. So it feels like a total distraction from the reality on the ground.

[Krystal Ball]

Let me go ahead and play this last piece for you guys. This was Scott Bessant. It's another. Michael Tracy pulled this, this clip. And my, this is Scott Besant saying basically we're fully and completely on the same page. There's no daylight between us and Ukraine at this point. Let's take a listen to that. It's good for America, it's good for.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Ukraine, I believe, also for Europe in.

[Unknown Speaker]

A lot of ways.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And tell us the details of that, Sean.

[Unknown Speaker]

It's great deal. Thanks for having me on tonight. And look, this is President Trump's deal that he's done trade deals, tax deals, and now we've got this Ukrainian American economic partnership deal. And it's win, win. It is a way to show that there's no Daylight between Ukraine and US As President Trump presses to end this horrible war, he wants both sides to come to the table now by showing that the US has an economic interest in Ukraine. It's a signal to the Russian leadership. It's also a signal to the American people that we have a chance to participate, get some of the funding and the weapons compensation for those and be partners with the success of the Ukraine. People bring American know how best practices to the rebuilt Ukraine. But the rebuilding can't stop until this war ends. And President Trump is committed to that.

[Krystal Ball]

So what do you guys make of that? And I do think, you know, I mean, a lot of the Republican base that is animated by the Ukraine war, they have come to just outright hate Zelinsky outlet. Right. You know, have distaste for Ukraine. And so I think this is a, this is a very different approach and tactics certainly than what they were expecting. What they were expecting was more like what the Oval Office blow up, like the maga. Right. Frickin loved that. They ate it up. Right. They thought it was great. You know, have you ever said thank you once, etc. Etc. And now here you are, back to this deal that really doesn't look all that different from the Biden administration's approach of just sort of like maintaining a status quo and continuing to ship weapons and letting this thing drag on in perpetuity.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, I think, I mean, in a non great way, that this actually is sort of a security guarantee. And that's kind of the why they hate it. Yeah, yeah. And I feel like, you know, the Biden administration didn't actually even really go that far. I get what they're doing, right. That it's sort of, they're trying to have it both ways, that it doesn't look like a security guarantee and then it is a security guarantee. Like they're using it intentionally as sort of a Rorschach test. Like if Ukraine wants it to be a security guarantee, it is. But in like pragmatic terms, it obviously could very much function as a security guarantee. It's not NATO membership. But what does this mean for how many Americans will regularly be on the ground? And like, we don't really know what that's going to look like in a way that I think is quite concerning. But what was important from Trump's perspective, I really think it was making it look like Zelensky kissed the ring and came back to the table for a similar deal. So I don't know. I think that's a really good point, Crystal. Like what Is MAGA thinking now? I think maybe the best thing, the best way that they're spinning it is this was a big win for Trump. He had Zelensky come crawling back. But it's not clear that that's actually.

[Sagar Enjeti]

What happened to me. It flows from the same error that Trump made with. With tariffs. Like he has. He's identified a. He's correctly identified a problem in both cases, and then he, in his mind, has identified a solution on the. For when it comes to, you know, manufacturing the working class. His solution is, I'm going to do big, big, beautiful tariffs when it comes to this war is bad. He's gonna just end the war. Like, he kept. He never. He never expounded upon why he was going to be able to do that. All he would say is that if he. If he. If the election hadn't been stolen from him, the invasion never would have happened. And when I get in, the war is going to end. So that was his plan A, but without any, you know, sketch behind it. And when that didn't work, now he's just flailing. So I think it's. It's similar to how he approaches most things.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Like.

[Krystal Ball]

And the gaps are being filled in by people who do have an ideology, who do have ideology and do have a plan. And that would be like the Lindsey Grahams of the world who, you know, has. Yeah. Pushing this minerals deal and like I said before, has a plan to even more aggressively sanction Russia, because that's definitely totally worked so far.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, that's what we need, a few more sanctions.

[Krystal Ball]

Last point on this. This is just like, you know, the Michael Tracy Ukraine segment, but I forgot it was actually him that did this interview with Bannon. I'm not going to play it, but I'll just pull it up. You remember he asked Bannon about this proposed minerals deal, and Bannon being kind of the emblem of the, you know, maga, nationalist America first. Right. His reaction was walk the fuck away. He warns that the US Needs to stop entangling itself with, quote, that cursed part of the world to get a flavor of how, you know, the. This person who certainly is in a lot of ways a leader of the maga. Right. How he feels about this direction now. Do I think he'll be, like, super critical of it now that Trump has inked it and it's done? I don't know. I won't hold my breath, but that was his reaction initially.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, that's a great poll. I forgot about that. That was at cpac and we'll see how Bannon reacts now. Be interesting.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, indeed. We can ask Laura Loomer too, next week. Ryan, right?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes, indeed.

[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

All right, let's get to the latest on the Alien Enemies Act. So this is pretty extraordinary. We now have a Trump appointed judge who has barred the administration from removing migrants under the Alien Enemies act, saying that his invocation of that law in the context of Trenda Aragua was illegal. So this isn't saying like you know, you did it wrong with this and this person in particular or you can't deport that particular person. This is saying no no, no, on the merits, your invocation of this law was illegal. So everyone who has been deported under this invocation of the Alien Enemies act, according to this, again, Trump appoint a judge that was all done, you know, under illegal auspices. And if you read, I read through the relevant portions of this, of this ruling and it's exactly, it says exactly what you would think that it would say, which is basically like we're not at war, we're not at war with Venezuela. This is not an invasion. Venezuela is not behind trend or agua. It's just, you know, goes to the merits of Alien Enemies act has been used three times. It's really, historically, the meaning of what war and invasion is has been really clear. And what you're doing here doesn't meet any of that standards, any of those standards. So here is a portion they say as to that question. The historical record renders clear the president's invocation of the AEA through the proclamation exceeds the scope of the statute and is contrary to the plain ordinary meaning of the statute's terms. As a result, the court concludes that as a matter of law, the executive branch cannot rely on the aea. And then he goes on from here. This is Kyle Cheney, which is POLITICO's court reporter just now. Judge Rodrigo also denied an effort by the Trump administration to hurriedly deport today one of those AEA targets, Daniel Zacharias Matos under other immigration authorities. He wants briefing on the matter needs to consider a jurisdiction. And a Trump appointed judge says the president's use of AEA was unlawful because there's no evidence trend or Wagwa, as harmful as the gang is, is literally invading the US as the law requires. So Emily, let me get your reaction to this because I thought that this would come at some point, but I was sort of wondering like when are we going to get to actually determining whether the use of this law at all, not just in these individual habeas petitions, but whether this use of this law at all is legal. And it seems that we have arrived. If we expect appeal, I fully expect probably end up before the Supreme Court. But the fact it's a Trump appointed judge is certainly not a good sign for the administration.

[Emily Jashinsky]

No, and, but, but actually we talked about this yesterday. They aren't really, this is not something that they were not expecting like to that was double negative like they were expecting all of this. They knew that this would happen and that's why they assumed that this was likely to happen. And that's why they're trying to go with A floodless zone, throw everything at the wall, see what Stick's legal strategy, and to do as much of it as quickly as they possibly can because they're very consciously concoc. Or they already did. They spent the last four years concocting these sort of novel legal theories in order to get people out of the country as fast as possible to keep up with the pace of how many people came into the country under the Biden presidency, which is a lot, according to the New York Times, some 8 million net. So that's. And some people think it's higher. But anyway, all that is to say they are sort of aware that they were skating on thin ice with this. And I mean, it would be great to see a judge find the entire Alien Enemies act unconstitutional. That's like the ideal situation. But they sort of knew that they were stretching. It was kind of like, ah, look what we can do. We can say that trend Nairagua is an invasion like Galaxy Brain. And that's one way that we could just get everyone the hell out of here. So it's a, it's definitely a setback because that was one of the ways they would be able to get as many people as they possibly could out really quickly. And obviously, you know, that wasn't going as well as they probably hoped. But they also kind of knew that this was going to be a problem. It just gives them an opportunity, I guess, to rage on judges. But this is a Trump appointed judge, so it's a little harder in that case.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I don't understand, Emily, why they don't just go to Congress. Like, and, and if they don't like the laws that are on the books and they think the political wind is at their back when it comes to mass deportations, why don't they just get Stephen Miller and these other, you know, lawyers that he's got to draft legislation and send it to Congress and change the laws. Is it really the parliamentarian? Like, are we back to the parliamentarian? Because they shouldn't even do it without 60 votes.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Like, well, the parliamentarian shouldn't even need to be a problem in this case. They can write up new legislation. It doesn't have to be, but it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Would need 60 votes. Unless they can.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, you could do it through reconciliation, but you probably have to ignore the ruling of the parliamentarian, which they've already basically said that they plan to do for other things as well.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So why not just like, what is, what are they so afraid of when it comes to writing new laws?

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, I don't know what they would do. And like, I honestly, I'm trying to think of what type of law that they could come up with because what they really could do, and Glenn Greenwald, who's guest hosting on Monday, made this point recently, is that you actually can do these things pretty quickly in immigration courts. You probably need a lot more immigration judges. You'd probably need to beef that up significantly.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And we have a lot of unemployed lawyers.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, well, that's right. But that's what I was just going to say is I think maybe they don't trust that process, that they are sort of concerned that putting more people through that legal process means a lot of people will just be given like permanent status, permanent legal status, or be on the glide path to citizenship. They're also concerned that, and this one I do think is a real concern is that it becomes a carrot, it becomes a draw for people to come in if you can get processed really quickly.

[Krystal Ball]

But I think that's, I think it's the opposite. It, because the reason it's a draw right now is because, you know, you can come in and it's going to take years for your asylum claim to be adjudicated. I mean, that's the loophole that you know, that, listen, I think I personally am in support of a large number of, of legal migrants into this country. But that's, that's the real problem. If you want to expedite the deportation of people who are here, you have to allow them to adjudicate their claims and yes, go through a process. And, and quite on the contrary, they've been firing immigration judges. So going in exactly the opposite direction. Another round of firing hits immigration courts in Massachusetts, California, Louisiana. Even as the Trump administration continues its efforts of downsizing the government but also increasing immigration related arrests, at least eight immigration judges receive notices. They'd be put on leave, their employment be terminated on April 22nd. So, you know, I personally think that there's, there's some other things going on here. I mean, number one, as we talked about yesterday, Emily, like Stephen Miller, explicitly as part of his ideology, he wants there to be a display of outrageous cruelty in hopes that that will cause people to self deport. And so shipping people off either to Guantanamo Bay, which they also do, or to this torture dungeon for life. Yeah, that's going to scare the shit out of a lot of immigrants, especially in that sense. Yeah, especially when you learn like, oh, actually these aren't the quote unquote, worst of the worst. This is a makeup artist with mom and dad tattoos and a soccer player who has an autism awareness tattoo. Like the vast majority of people have no criminal record. So you, you start if you're here, even if you did everything right, because we also know that, you know, Kilmar Brego Garcia, he was removed even though there was an order saying you cannot remove him to this country. We know that others had come in via the CBP1 app, followed the procedure, were showing up for their hearings, were doing everything right. So none of that serves as a protection. That's exactly the message that Stephen Miller wants to send, is that your entire life, like we can casually destroy your entire life and not just deport you, but we can send you and sentence you for life to this horrific, you know, this horrific place where the Bukele and his people say the only way you come out is in a casket. So I think that's part of it. I think the other part of it is that their narrative on immigration, and this is really one of the innovations of the Trump anti immigrant approach, at least in, you know, with regard to the US context, is instead of primarily talking about a challenge with immigration being about jobs or being about housing or economic issues, he talks about it almost exclusively as being about criminals, that these are all criminals and they're, you know, they're coming in and they're raping our women and they're, you know, murdering people. And that's why the Lake and Riley act is the first thing they pass through Congress. And so if you go through a legal process, this, it is going to become quite apparent that overwhelmingly they are not criminals. You know, yes, there are criminals in the undocumented population, lower number than the native born population. And so you cannot keep up the farce of this is a group of horrible, you know, savages who are destroying our country and, you know, are the worst of the worst and they're terrible people and they let out the, from the insane asylums. As he always says, says you cannot maintain that farce if you're actually going through some process and people have to interact with who these humans actually are and the reasons they came and you know, the way they've been conducting themselves since they were here as well. So to me, that's the reason why they really have no interest in actually changing the law and going through some sort of semblance of a legal and constitutional process because they want the cruelty and they also want to avoid the scrutiny of, of, hey, you know, these are like people who often are good community members and paying taxes and trying to do Everything. Right.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Brian, did. Did you want to jump in?

[Krystal Ball]

Okay.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

No, I was just gonna say, I think. I think part of it is the cruelty. Yes, I. I agree with that, and I think that's the. Your point on the tactics is also right. The more that you send people through immigration judges, the more it becomes obvious that people who have much more sympathetic cases now, they might be ones that I. I disagree with, but for the broader public, they're much more sympathetic than MS.13 members or trend members being booted out. Because people, when they look around, realize in their daily lives that there are a whole lot of people who have been here for a very long time. And even five years is a long time. You built Kilmar Abrego Garcia has been here since 2012. He's got kids. That's the case with many, many people married to U.S. citizens. And it's politically much. Even if there are a whole lot of people in the country who are like, I don't care. Get them out. It's politically, with the broader public a much more difficult case to make. There's no question about that.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. I think the broader public, Ryan, was really sold on mass deportation from this idea of it's largely. This is a largely criminal group. And we can already see as the broader public is interacting with the actual details of. Of who these humans are and the way the administration is approaching all of this, the numbers have shifted already quite dramatically. And so you can only imagine if you had, you know, legal process playing out and you were, you know, able to access more of these human details, that it would not be, you know, the public would not maintain the same level of support for mass deportation as they did when they were theoretically thinking of, like, oh, it's going to be the criminals and the worst of the worst that are. That are first in line for this mass deportation.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And I think the conservative media did an effective job at circulating a lot of, you know, narratives about eating cats and, you know, the weird stuff out of Springfield and the. The. And the. The mainstream media, I think, undermined itself by like, ignoring that when, you know, when Trende Aragua took over, basically took over that apartment complex in, like, Colorado Springs or wherever it was, and it didn't get, you know, didn't get any attention. And then the. And then the. The right wing media was able to, like, say, no, look, this is actually happening. And then it raises questions, and people's minds are like, is there a lot more of this happening that we're not being. That we're not being told about. And I think the. The, like, brutal increase in housing probably, probably was strung together in people's mind with hostility to, you know, mass migration. Like, all these people came in and now housing prices are out of control, which I understand, like, why you would intuitively kind of make. Make that link when, you know, in fact, you actually need, you know, labor to build the housing that we need. Like, the problem is we're not building enough housing for a growing population. But certainly if there's more people, then just supply and demand is going to put some pressure on housing prices. So I, you know, I think you. You, like you saw in Europe, you can't really disconnect some of people's, you know, frustrations that they're going to then take out on immigrant population, especially when.

[Krystal Ball]

The Democratic Party just, just got scared and we're like, yeah, they're right. We actually are going to be even tougher on the border. And so you have both parties basically, you know, pushing the same narrative of this is an invasion. This is the number one problem. These are bad people. We need to, you know, Kamala Harris up there, I'm the only one who's prosecuted transnational gangs, et cetera. Etc. And so, yeah, if both parties seemingly agree that, you know, these are criminals and they need to make it, but then it must be true. And so, you know, who. Who are you going to trust more to deal with that problem? Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? I don't think there's any doubt that if you are looking for who's going to be, you know, toughest and most aggressive in dealing with this problem that both parties have now come to agree is, you know, is through a shared frame. Of course you're gonna go in Donald Trump's direction with that one.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah. The last point I'll make is I think that all contributed to it. I just think it's the simplest answer in the situation, which is that we hadn't seen immigration happen at a rate as fast as the. As it was during Biden since Ellis Island. And I think that's just like, it just sort of a shock to the system that made people, you know, change from what they thought under the first administration when.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And we shut it down after Ellis island for, like, 40 years. Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Yep, true.

[Unknown Host 1]

All right.

[Krystal Ball]

I wanted to get both you guys reaction to an interesting horseshoe moment here. Let me. I don't know that much about it, so I'm gonna let you guys kind of set this up. But David, Dan was tweeting about this, some good news Jim Jordan and the GOP judiciary had a surprising change of heart. Cut a dangerous proposal to shift the FTC antitrust capacity to the doj. Big win. Great to see Representative Jayapal And Becca is her last name Balin, I think, take a strong stand. And David Dan said bad people with terrible political instincts tried to make a thing out of Lena Khan taking a picture with Steve Bannon for short term political advantage. Bannon was who pounded Jordan into submission on this proposal. That picture might have saved a federal agency. Ryan, give us what's going on here.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yep. Becca Balint was my state senator when I lived in Vermont. She's now the congresswoman for the entire state of Vermont. So we have a story coming on this. It drops the news that I'm kind of sitting on. It's my fault. I haven't moved it. But basically, Jim Jordan, you know, who has been playing this, and Emily can talk more about this, playing this double game for many years where, you know, he bashes Big Tech on a cultural level and talks about how it's awful that they're trying to, you know, censor conservative speech. And meanwhile, he hires a bunch of people from law firms that work for Big Tech or direct from Big Tech or at his people, you know, go, then work, work for Big Tech. He takes a ton of money from Big Tech they've taken and well, this will be in our story. But, you know, enormous amounts of trips paid for by Big Tech, his top tech aid left his office and then went to work for Melissa Holyoke, who is the most pro Big Tech FTC commissioner. And so, you know, he's been there, he's been the Big Tech's like, best ally. And as chair of the Judiciary Committee, despite what he says publicly to the, you know, his, his MAGA base and his, he put legislation out that would basically strip the FTC of all of its antitrust enforcement power. A huge shot. And that, that, that swing was so big, like he fell out of his shoes. And it allowed, it finally allowed Bannon and others to say, look, we've been telling you that this guy is actually a toady for Big Tech. Now, now look how obvious it is. He's stripping the FTC of all of its antitrust power. You know, Jordan was saying, oh, it'll go to DOJ and it'll be better because of that. And the reason a lot of people don't buy that is like, here you've got Steve Bannon with the powerful and beloved FTC chair Lina Khan. And so it reminds me. Oh, yeah, Like, FTC does good things, and now here's Jim Jordan trying to take away its power while it's actively going after, you know, still going after big tech. So I think Jordan has kind of been exposed by this, and he had. He now backed off under pressure from Bannon. Emily, anything you'd want to add about the game Jordan plays in dc?

[Emily Jashinsky]

No, just. I just add to Dan's point that actually, if Bannon hadn't done it, other people would have. And I do think that's really interesting. I was at a big antitrust, conservative antitrust event last night on the Hill, and what's. But the problem is there aren't as many hardcore conservative antitrust intellects because they haven't been groomed over the course of decades to see the world through this neo Brandeisian lens, which is much more common on the left for obvious reasons, because it's an embrace of government power. But that's slowly, slowly changing. So what we're just seeing is kind of a power struggle tug of war, because those people have a very powerful ally in Steve Bannon, but they also have powerful allies like in MAGA world more broadly, which is, again, it's not to say that they've won the party, not even close. The Jim Jordans are still much more common. Big Tech used to give tons of money to conservatives. It used to be a very natural marriage. They were always at CPAC having, like, massive parties because they were the free market's success. So it's changing very slowly, but it's still an uphill battle. There's no question about it. I would just say it wouldn't have only been Bannon who was in uproar about it. He's a powerful ally. But people like Mike Davis, Article 3 project, like, they would have been firing off on this, too.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And. And he was. Mike Davis appeared on Bannon's podcast and. And ripped Jordan over it with a. With a funny pun where he said, you know, Jim Jordan loves to go to the mat for big tech.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Like, all right, see what you did there, Mike.

[Krystal Ball]

Wrestler. Get it. You guys get it. We should. We should reveal to the audience that Emily actually changed our group chat picture to be that picture of Steve.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Good.

[Unknown Host 1]

And you know what?

[Emily Jashinsky]

I shouldn't say this, but I have been. I have my, like, glossy photo paper for my printer, and I have been thinking of just secretly putting a framed picture of that behind us on the set, but I keep forgetting to do it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, yeah, we need. We need that.

[Krystal Ball]

That's a great idea.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Such a Funny picture.

[Krystal Ball]

This is like kind of related actually but there's been pushback led by Rand Paul to the Trump tariffs on the right as well. And this was an interesting comment from him. So he met with Trump's trade rep. Is that Navarro that he's talking about? He said it reminded of a meeting on industrial policy in the Soviet Union where you have to be nice to the czar because if you're nice the czar, they'll bequeath upon you exceptions to the iron fist. And I mean that to me is like the whole point of these tariffs by and large is that it does consolidate that kind of power with the executive. But there was also some preposterous, you know, pathetic situation that unfolded in the Senate where Rand Paul was trying to push through a resolution that would have, you know, reclaimed power to levy tariffs which is supposed to be be with Congress anyway. And was it Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democrat who's like in Korea right now so didn't get back in time for the vote and then the vote failed. 49, 49. They weren't able to get you know, one more vote. So our strongest anti corruption soldier in any case. I thought it was, I, I thought it was interesting. Rand Paul, you know, specific like obviously this is right in his ideological wheelhouse and this is a bridge too far for him to, to go.

[Emily Jashinsky]

My sense is that so it was with Jameson Greer I think is who he met. So the USTR and I think they.

[Krystal Ball]

Are Borrow's official title. I don't know senior crank. What about what is the, what is his pen? Ron? What's the fake name? Oh yeah, what's his official title?

[Sagar Enjeti]

What is his name? Yeah, somebody have to tell us in the comments. Yeah, he's got a fake advisor that he pretends he has.

[Krystal Ball]

Vera, isn't that it? I think that's it, yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

First of all this is great news for you guys that the power is being consolidated in a dear leader communist type system. I think this is something that you.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Guys AOC will enjoy.

[Krystal Ball]

This Comrade AOC is going to do.

[Emily Jashinsky]

A great job, perhaps better than comrade Navarro. But no, I think that Greer is in a situation himself where his tariff policy because everyone remembers the famous moment where he found out that Trump had instituted the pause while he was testifying. I think where Rand Paul is interpreting this from Greer is that Greer is interpreting this from his own boss, which is I'm the freaking boss. And so if you're Jameson Greer and you have to be the intermediary between Congress which is supposed to have this power, which is why you also have Rand Paul making the weirdest like horseshoe in the opposite direction ever with like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski and Chuck Schumer. It's sort of amusing to see that happen. But you also then have Greer having to communicate the policy is just whatever Trump says the policy is, because that is ultimately what the policy is. So good luck. That sounds like fun.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Well, and we've already seen that, right? Like you know, the people who are giving money to the inauguration and paying to go down to Mar a Lago and the Nvidia guy had, you know, paid how many millions to get dinner with him and then they get their car down, et cetera. So. And apparently actually Gretchen Whitmer humiliating herself and ending up in these photo shoots with Trump has paid some benefits for her getting some of the auto tariffs rolled back. And that Sean Fane also being sort of favorable on the auto tariffs, I think has also given him an in to get some of these exemptions and rollbacks on the, the auto tariffs as well. So, yeah, that is, that is definitely the system that we have right now. You have to go and plead your case to the king if you're going to have any chance of survival. And of course, you know, to go back to the monopoly point, who's going to be able to do that? It's going to be the big companies. If you're small or medium sized business, you're not going to have that access, you're not going to have the money to obtain that access. You're not going to have the lobbyists to be able to plead your case. You're not even going to have, if you're a small business, you're not even going to have the wherewithal to be able to follow the day to day changes in the tariff and regulatory regime which that in and of itself puts you at risk because you are struggling to be able to comply with whatever the dictate is of the day. So I, I do think one of the impacts of these tariffs is going to be, you know, a further consolidation among the big players at the expense of small and medium sized businesses who do not have the flexibility to adapt or the access to be able to get their car bound.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And the irony of course is that the small and medium sized businesses are much more American, much more patriotic to.

[Krystal Ball]

An extent because they live in an important Republican base. I mean, that's like sort of backbone of the Republican Party.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes, it has been. Yes. Since, since the 50s or whatever. Yes. Even be even before that. And the big companies are multinational corporations with no real allegiance to the United States States. So I don't know what they think they're doing.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, no, that's all. That was all. Well said. All right, I wanted to get you guys reaction to this kind of extraordinary moment with Tucker Carlson and Matt Walsh here. All right, guys, thank you so much for watching the free portion of the Friday show. We're going to move into some premium bonus content, so if you want to watch that as well, make sure to go and subscribe@breaking points.com and for all of you guys who are already premium subscribers, that portion's going to start right now.

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[Sagar Enjeti]

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