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Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
5/24/26: Neocons FREAK As Trump Says Iran Deal INCHES Away
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Dr. Trita Parsi
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Legacy is a beautiful thing, but only if it survives.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
Let's go to work.
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All.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
And peace will have to wait.
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Co-host or Commentator
Good morning, everybody. Happy Sunday morning. We have a special edition here of Breaking Points. I know there's a lot going on for our premium subscribers about our shift over to Supercast, but we did have to jump on with our great friend Dr. Trita Parsi to break down this potential new deal between Donald Trump and the Iranians. After significant regional effort, it does appear at this moment, I guess it's 9am on Sunday, that a deal may be imminent with all of the caveats that that entails. So Dr. Parsi, thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
Thank you.
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Co-host or Commentator
Let's go ahead and start off. Crystal. Can we see the truth? I. I can read it for everybody. I will skip the long introduction names of all of the foreign leaders that were name checked here by Donald Trump. But what we see here is I am in the Oval Office. We had just had a very good call. All of these different leaders. Here's what he says is that concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran, all things related to a memorandum of Understanding pertaining to peace. An agreement has largely been negotiated subject to the finalization between the usa, the Islamic Republic of Iran and other countries separately. I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Israel, which likewise went very well. Final aspects and details of the deal are being discussed. In addition to many other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuzzi will be opened. Thank you for your attention to this matter. So, Dr. Parsi, just give us your breakdown here of what you note from the Trump truth and some of the emerging details around this so called Memorandum of understanding which we believe will last some 60 days.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
So first of all, there's no misspellings, there is no grammatical errors, there's no attempt at humiliating any side. He's got the title and the names of each of these different world leaders correct. And I'm mentioning this because before we have seen on numerous occasions true social post by the President in which he says, hey, we're really close and it's not a serious post. It is time to work well with the markets, to manipulate the markets. It doesn't have any indication that anyone else has reviewed the two the post in any way, shape or form. This clearly was not written by him alone, although he does have his flavor to it as well towards the end. More importantly though, when you take a look at all the different world leaders that he consulted with before coming to this conclusion, it's very important because it shows, I mean, what he's trying to do over here is to say, look, we're doing this in tandem with a lot of these different world leaders. And it is true many of them have been pushing very hard for this. Some of them have played a crucial role in the background to mediate this compromise that is being reached Pakistan and Qatar in particular in the later phases of this. But he also gives them a certain degree of protection here in Washington. We saw the massive meltdown of warmongers last night when this was first announced and even before it was announced, when they were getting noticed that this was coming, they were, you know, they were just in a public panic. And this is despite the fact that they got two wars. They got every conceivable sanction in place. They got the worst rhetoric from Trump. They got efforts to, you know, assassinate leaders inside the country, send the weapons into. There's nothing on the wish list of these warmongers that have not been tried and it has failed miserably yet in a panic over the fact that their miserable failure is now going to be abandoned and going to go in a different direction. But in that context, for him to be able to say, look, I'm doing it because all of these regional leaders are asking me to do this is very important, not just to be able to show the regional anchoring of this, but also to be able to deflect of the criticism that invariably come, which is you abandon Israel. Well, perhaps Israel had abandoned the United States by manipulating the United States into this war in the first place. But nevertheless, Israel is not the only country in the region that the United States has some form of a partnership with, and it cannot be the only country that counts. And he's there listing all of these different countries that are going, are telling him to go in this direction, seek a peace, put an end to this conflict, because it's devastating for the entire region and for the global economy. So all of this, I think in and of itself was showing this is much more serious than the previous instances. And then we do have confirmation both from some of these leaders in the region as well as from the Iranians that something is very imminent.
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Interviewer
So let's talk about what we know, the contours of the deal. You have a great piece up at your substack, which is called tree to Parsi, eponymously name it. Is that the word? Is that the way you use it? In any case, everybody should go and subscribe to see your analysis there, which elaborates on your important post that you also put on Twitter that we all follow very closely. So in any case, you've got a great headline here, warmongers in Meltdown as Trump Heralds Iran Deal. And you talk about some of the the reported details. You say the full details remain somewhat unclear, but according to reporting by Amwaj Media, much of which I've independently corroborated, the agreement entails a comprehensive cessation of hostilities, including in Lebanon, the gradual release of Iran's frozen assets and an end to America's blockade of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime traffic through the strait would resume under joint Iranian and Omani oversight. Once these measures take effect, the parties would have an additional 30 days to negotiate a final agreement. That second stage accord is expected to address both the nuclear issue and the long term status of the strait. Significant progress, however, already appears to have been made on the nuclear file. And as I understand it, broad principles for its resolution have largely been agreed upon on. So both the Iranians and Trump saying that they are close to an agreement. We do not have official word yet. What are some of the sticky or thorny issues laid out in your piece here that could still derail progress.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
Well, I think the main problems are going to come in the second phase, because if we take a look at what this memorandum understanding ultimately does, it really brings us back to where we were supposed to be when the first ceasefire was struck. It was supposed to be regional. Lebanon was supposed to be included. There was not supposed to be a blockade of the blockade. The strait was going to be open, but it will be under Iranian control for that moment. So we're going back to where we were supposed to be before FDD sold Trump on this idea of a blockade, of the blockade, which then created all of these additional problems and further weakened the US's position. And then we have now. But on top of that, there's two other things. A commitment for a final deal within 30 days, it could be extended to 60, as well as some sanctions, relieve release of Iranian assets in the interim, which seems to be some sort of a goodwill measure that Trump had to give to the Iranian side. But the real test is going to come in the second phase because that's when they're going to have to resolve the nuclear issue. The question of the stockpile is still one that is not resolved, although there's been movement in the right direction that's going to be tied to a final resolution to the status of the straight of Hormuz, which also is not fully resolved in this interim stage. So there's still a lot. And on top of that, I know 30 days is not a lot of time, but my God, it gives the Hawks plenty of opportunities to try to do everything they can to sabotage this deal. The one thing I point out, though, in my piece is that we may not see that high of a decibel coming from the Israeli side. From Israeli officials, you will have massive decibel, of course, from their proxies in Washington, D.C. but from the Israeli officials standpoint themselves, they may have to choose to be a bit more careful. And the reason for that is that they are now entering into their election season and Trump remains very popular in Israel, and as a result can damage any politician in Israel that chooses to publicly confront Trump over this issue. And I think this is what Trump was hinting at, was it two or three days ago, and which he kind of out of the blue started saying that he's seen the polls and he's at 99% in Israel and that he actually could run for prime minister, that he may actually run for prime minister in Israel later on. I think that was a warning Sign to the Israelis telling Israeli officials that I'm so popular I can be the kingmaker in Israel and you would be unwise to go after me over this issue.
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Co-host or Commentator
Yeah, thinking about that. And the Israeli faction here, there's two things, right? So there's their lobby here in Washington and we have a taste of that crystal. I know you have it in the rundown about the neocon freak out. Here we have the former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The deal being floated seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman, Robert Malley, Ben Rhodes playbook. Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world. Not remotely. America first. It's straightforward. Open the damned strait, deny Iran access to the money, take out enough Iranian capabilities so it cannot threaten our allies to the region. Damn, I really wish we'd thought of that, that maybe we'd even tried it. There was another one here from Robert Malley who was actually one of the negotiators. He's not. Not quite the path. But if this deal brings an end to the unjustifiable unlawful war, to the senseless loss of life and to the cascading fallout, I'm sure we'd be willingly accepted over the alternative. I think what's interesting beyond Mike Pompeo and you know Mark Levin.
- [11:14]
Interviewer
Mark, we have a good Lindsey Graham one here too.
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Co-host or Commentator
This is my personal favorite. I've been thinking about this all weekend. The amount of times I've read this particular paragraph, which is this, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with. If these perceptions are accurate. I personally am skeptical of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot be protected against itself, against Iranian military capability. This is prefaced by a. If the deal is struck to end the Iran conflict because it is believed the Strait of Hormuz cannot be open with terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominant force requiring a diplomatic solution. Yes, Senator, that's true. And I think fundamentally close to getting it. It's like the worst person you know just made a good point like that mean. But I do think it's important that. That many of these neocons are grappling with the geopolitical reality that they wrought upon us on February 27th. There was no nuclear. There was no nuclear weapon in Iran. They were not close to getting a nuclear weapon. The Strait of Hormuz was open and there was. I mean, I can only speak for myself. I would never have dreamed of the strategic humiliation of the United States, that I'd be sitting here on May 24. But they are the people who chose that. As you said in your opening comments, we tried everything they wanted. We killed their leader, we flooded the country with weapons, we bombed the hell out of them. Absent, you know, a full blown bombing of their nuclear power plant infrastructure and a ground invasion. We did everything, even a naval blockade. And we're basically at a point where you're going to get a deal which easily could have also been obtained on February 27, minus the Strait of Hormuz. So I just think that watching this, you know, watching this rhetoric escalate in the domestic Israeli lobby side, what they're going to hammer home is what we just laid out here about the humiliation of the United States. I mean, what is your expectation that this rhetoric will not move Trump away from this sort of deal? Even though he has all these regional allies who are whispering in his ear in a different direction?
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Dr. Trita Parsi
It's going to be very tough for him because he's very sensitive to that type of rhetoric. So it really is crucial for him to recognize that he has to show that discipline of sticking to. He can't have it both ways. He's either going to have a deal or he's going to have total war. And part of the reason why he's going in this direction, and this is really important to understand, I was on this panel with Joe Ken two days ago, and he made this point, I want to repeat it. If there was a military option for the United States that could turn the tables, that could reverse the situation in favor of the United States, Trump would have used it long time ago. The reason why he hasn't is because it does not exist. And it doesn't matter how courageous Lindsey Graham or Mike Pompeo, Mark Levine sound in their tweets. They're not the ones that are going to be fighting this war. They're not the ones that are going to be dying if they manage to convince Trump to go on the suicide mission. But he has had enough of a survival instinct here to recognize that despite the fact that he's issued threats of this kind, he's not actualized them because he knows it won't work. It will make the situation hundred times worse than it already is. So when we're seeing these things coming from Levine, et cetera, I hope this is the moment when Trump goes back to what he promised the American people, which was that he was going to kick these people out of government and that he was not going to listen to Them he was not going to go for the endless wars that they constantly are presenting and pushing on American politicians. There's one other element, though, however, that I think is really, really crucial. The Iranians also have to be very careful here. They cannot repeat what Trump otherwise constantly does, which is constantly tries to humiliate the other side. He had very little sensitivity to the fact that all of these memes and pictures and things that he said during the negotiations made it more difficult for the Iranians to come to an agreement. Now the Iranians have to be very careful not to gloat or do anything that would actually fuel the attacks by the neocons on Trump and potentially undermine Trump's ability to deliver on his end of the bargain. And there was a tweet yesterday by the spokesperson of the foreign Minister in which he compared this to the ill fated Roman attempt to conquer Persia back in, I think it was 200 AD, something in which they were defeated by the Sassanidian king, Shahpur the Second, and essentially said that ultimately the Romans had to sue for peace on Ivan's terms at the time. Maybe there is a parallel, but bottom line is don't issue those tweets in this very, very sensitive way.
- [16:04]
Co-host or Commentator
I'll listen to that.
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Interviewer
Let me talk about that later.
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Podcast Host
Yeah.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
Do not want to give further fodder to the Lindsey Grahams and others who only want to make sure that this war resumes.
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Interviewer
Yeah. Trita, Looking from the outside, it seems to me that there have been a number of sort of key turning points or revelations during this war from the Trump perspective. So, number one, he was clearly convinced himself or Sol bill of goods from the Israelis that, oh, you can just take out the ayatollah and some top leadership. Whole thing is a, you know, house of cards. It's going to collapse. Trump was telling allies and I relied on you for this reporting that, oh, this is going to be over in a few days, don't worry about it. Obviously, that had to be a little eye opening for him at the beginning. This did not go the way that I was told that it would go. The second one for me appears to have been that pilot rescue or whatever happened there near Isfahan, where, yes, they were allegedly able to get their pilot out, even though we've never, never known who he is, we've never seen him, we've never heard about him since. But in any case, we know for sure that it was a bit of debacle. You had US Aircraft that got stuck there had to be destroyed. And I think that May have been an eye opening moment in terms of, oh, if we do something on the ground, this is going to be very difficult. This is going to be a problem for us. Because it was right after that that he, you know, began to pursue, all right, how do we stay. Step back. And the most intensive bombing campaigns ended. And then this is the piece I really want to get your thoughts on. Potentially the most recent turning point was the trip to China. It seemed like Trump held out a view that he could go to the Chinese and they would basically save his ass. And when he went there and they were like, listen, buddy, you know, nice to see you, but good luck, that's when he had to get serious about, you know, taking some concessions here and striking a deal that, yeah, the, the warmongers are going to hate, the neocons are going to hate. And that does expose the weakness of the United States ultimately, you know, as we evaluate what the, you know, what this war, quote unquote, achieved on our behalf. And so I wonder if you see it that way, how influential do you think that that trip to China was in ultimately forcing Trump's hand to come to some sort of a negotiated agreement?
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Dr. Trita Parsi
No, I do agree with you. Let me say something on the, the previous point as well, because you're absolutely right. We know very little what happened. We don't even know the names of the pilots. But apparently Hollywood is already making a movie about it. I don't know if you guys saw the story. Oh, I know, yeah, the rights have been sold. They're doing a movie about something that nothing, no, we know nothing about. I don't know, are they just gonna make up the facts here or what's going on here? So I thought that was quite fascinating that Hollywood is already on top of it. But also on that point, Hollywood may
- [18:51]
Interviewer
have been on top of it from the beginning.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
Truth, it may have been. Exactly, exactly. Perhaps this was their production to begin with. And, you know, I've spoken to folks, this is speculative, I don't know the facts here, but I've spoken to folks on the military side on the US and many of them have pointed to the fact that this appeared to have been a real effort to go inside of the country and do something to the nuclear facilities, that there was an attempt to either take or build quickly a Runway and then manage to fly in a lot of soldiers. So you don't have to do the actual invasion from the south, which would have been impossible. Instead, you're leapfrogging it. You're going into the middle of the country. And it was a disaster. The United States lost more air carrier aircraft that weekend since the Vietnam War. And if you remember, it is about two days after that that Trump first issues that civilizational threat and seems to have had a meltdown on par with Mark Levine right now on Truth Social. And then that evening, the ceasefire is announced. So it seems to have been a scenario in which he tried something very big. It was an absolute disaster. They managed to make sure that much of it is not known to the public. Instead, there's this story about the saving of two pilots, which may have been true, but even if it was true, it seems to have been a success within a larger failure. And then after that, you had the ceasefire. So we've seen this pattern going for broke, not working, and then having to back off. And I think the China trip was absolutely crucial right before he goes to China and was hoping. And remember, the FTD crowd sold this to Trump by saying, not only will there be a massive problem inside of Iran, but also this is going to create problems for the Chinese.
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Co-host or Commentator
And.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
And the Chinese will then turn and put pressure on Iran to back down. Okay, so first Iran has to crumble, and secondly, the Chinese were supposedly going to put pressure on Iran. The first part, completely false. Iran should have crumbled four weeks ago, according to the calculations of ftd. But also right before Trump arrives in Beijing, the Iranians and the Chinese strike a deal. And Chinese ships are allowed to go through the Strait of Hormuz. The details of it, we don't know. Did the Iranians just allowed that entirely or did the Chinese agree to some sort of a payment system? Unclear. But it essentially meant that by the time Trump arrived in Beijing, the strait was already open for the Chinese ship. If they were to be blocked, it would not be by the Iranians, it would be by the United States. And if so, Trump would be picking a fight with the Chinese. And the Chinese would not be putting pressure on Iran because Iran was not their problem. They would be putting pressure on the United States.
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Co-host or Commentator
Right.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
And I think he walked away from that and realizing, okay, the FTD card was wrong on every point. The Chinese were not going to come onto the US's side. And anyone who knew anything about China, and I don't pretend to be a China expert, would have known that. That's simply not the way the Chinese would have operated. And once that card also fell, then I think we got more serious about trying to get to some sort of a deal. And the structure of this arrangement, which I Have to say I'm not a fan of, I'm not crazy about this next 30 days. But nevertheless, that was something that the Iranians were pushing.
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Interviewer
Right. What is it? Why is, why are you not a fan of that traditional development?
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Dr. Trita Parsi
Because of this very, very intense window that it provides the Hawks to sabotage this.
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Interviewer
Yeah.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
And particularly mindful of the fact that a lot of what we're seeing is supposedly agreed upon, would have been agreed upon quietly without revealing the 30 days or anything like that, and then go for more intense negotiations without offering this type of opportunity, this silver platter for the Hawks to go after this and the significant vulnerability that Trump will have during this period.
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Co-host or Commentator
Right. I think it's so important. That's what I was about to emphasize is Israel. I don't know if you guys saw what they did in Gaza yesterday. I mean, they lit Gaza up harder than they have in months and they actually pushed beyond the so called yellow line area, which they previously hadn't. And I don't think that that's an accident. It's to ignite tensions, to ignite and inflame things potentially to get Hezbollah to start firing back at them, you know, because they're angry about what's happening and then they can say, see, we have a right of legitimate self defense in Lebanon and oh, that just so happens to blow up the entire deal. I mean, we have 30 days basically of potential Israeli sabotage all across the board. And you also highlight an important thing here is we still don't know the details. When they say the strait will be opened, that's Trump. Now, Iran, you can correct me if I'm wrong, has come out and said the strait will be open under Iranian management. I have no idea what that means. Maybe it's no toll or they have the ability to close it if they want to. Obviously I hope it's the latter. But in terms of how we will we see oil resume, oil and natural gas resume normal flow through the strait over the next 30 days? I don't think so. And so then the economic kind of cliff over all of that seems very, very precarious. That's actually my last question to you is the Iranians seem absolutely hell bent on there will be control over the Strait. Now control can mean a lot of different things. In your expectation, does it look like a toll management with Oman, does it look like a latent deterrent, basically like a nuclear weapon would be in terms of we can do this anytime that we want. How serious are they about exerting their control over the Strait?
- [24:41]
Dr. Trita Parsi
No, I think this has become a new red line for the Iranians. However, I don't think it will be atoll. There's an Omani proposal that has gotten some traction, which is essentially a toll, but it is framed because a toll would be really illegal internationally in the absence of a war. Instead, it will be an environmental management fee in which countries are paying because there's such a high traffic in that strait, and this would then be collected by Iran and Oman. However, the US Position is one in which they're not crazy about this idea. They prefer it to be regionalized. So it's not just Iran and Oman, but also the other states in the gcc. That would give the Trump administration the ability to say, it's not Iranians controlling it. This is the region, it's their region, and they've decided to do this, and it's just a management fee, and we can, one way or another, live with that. So I think. And again, so this issue is not entirely resolved. It will be resolved as part of the 30 days. I don't suspect that the Iranians will give up a degree of control at all, and they can reassert that if there's war again. But there's also another element here, which is part of what the Iranians wanted to do with the control of this trade, was that they wanted to force other countries who had left the Iranian market because of US Sanctions to now have no option but to trade with Iran again because they would have to pay these fees to get the oil. Perhaps they're not buying anything from Iran, but they're still buying the oil and the gas and whatnot. And as a result, they would need to have that transactional relationship with Iran financially. Well, if Trump, as part of a final deal, lifts all primary sanctions and the banking sanctions, well, then perhaps that control of the strait for that specific purpose of forcing these countries back into trading with Iran is no longer necessary. So I think there's ways to actually resolve this, but it is a point of leverage that the Iranians are not going to give up. In the intermediate stage, at the last stage, we'll see exactly how it ends up. But I can see this going in several different directions.
- [26:48]
Interviewer
Yeah, well, that leads to my last question, which is let's assume that this immediate term deal comes together. Let's assume they're able to work out the differences on the nuclear file, that there is some sort of settlement we figure out in the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of big question marks there, as we all know. Let's Say, though, that this war concludes along the lines that are being laid out right now. You know, what will this mean in terms of the US Position in the world and changes to the both global and regional balance of power?
- [27:17]
Dr. Trita Parsi
Well, first of all, the first thing we have to note is that this will be an utter strategic defeat for Israel. It has started two wars with Iran, and the end result has been that Iran has restored its deterrence. It has been revealed that Israel is completely incapable of fighting any war with Iran without massive active American support and involvement. And even then, it didn't end up well because Iran had escalation dominance because of the use of geography. On top of that, the Israelis have destroyed what little standing they had left amongst the American public. The only demographic that now seems to support them still or be sympathetic to them is Boomer Republicans. And in 10, 15 years, there will not be any such thing as Boomer Republicans as a major constituency or demographic. All of this is happening. And the Israelis again during the next couple of weeks and months are going to be very limited in what they can do to sabotage directly, indirectly, they will still do a tremendous amount of things, but their ability to publicly challenge or pick a fight with Trump, I think, is going to be limited. For the United States, this is also going to ultimately be a turning point, I believe. I think we had a brief conversation about this before as well, but I think this is really the inflection point that really puts an end to American global primacy. The ability to sustain that when you cannot even control or have escalation dominance in the Persian Gulf is very, very limited. And beyond that, even if it isn't, even if there's explanations as to why this war went the way it did, the question marks about America's ability, capacity and competence and being able to run global primacy is now being spread all over the world, including among some of the allies who have for a long time pushed the United States to extend and deepen that primacy. This is not at all the consequences that we had after the Iraq war. It was a disaster. But no one questioned America's ability to sustain global primacy. That question will be front and center after this war, in my view. However, I have to be very clear. I think it's a good thing for the United States not to pursue global primacy. It should have stopped pursuing that a long time ago. It's just not that it should have happened this way.
- [29:34]
Interviewer
Yeah, right. Yep. That's how I view it as well. Dr. Parsi, thank you as always for your analysis. Everybody go and check out the substack Treata Parsi. We'll make sure to link in the description as well for more of treatise analysis. Great to see you sir.
- [29:48]
Co-host or Commentator
Thank you sir.
- [29:48]
Dr. Trita Parsi
Thank you so much for having me. Appreciate it.
- [29:50]
Interviewer
Yeah, it's our pleasure.
- [29:51]
Dr. Trita Parsi
You.
- [29:55]
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