← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
5/26/26: Trump Goes To War For Prediction Markets, Hasan Piker Subpoenaed By Feds Over Cuba Trip
00:36:02
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
This is an Iheart podcast. Guaranteed human
- [00:06]
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- [00:29]
Saagar Enjeti
Visit your nearby Lowe's.
- [00:35]
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Bethenny Frankel
All?
- [00:36]
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- [01:23]
Krystal Ball
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- [01:55]
Saagar Enjeti
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of the show.
- [02:02]
Krystal Ball
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [02:08]
Saagar Enjeti
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:19]
Krystal Ball
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com turning now to prediction markets under potential legal threat, but definitely getting a major assist from the US Government. Let's put the this up here on the Screen Minnesota has now become the first state to ban prediction markets. The governor signed the nation's first law operating in the state and in response, the Trump administration has sued. This will now tee up a massive legal battle over the crackdown on Kalshi and polymarket. The new state law makes it a crime to host or advertise a prediction market which defines as a system that lets consumers place a wager on future outcomes like sports, elections, live entertainment, someone's word choice and world affairs. Why do we have markets on those anyway? The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets like VPNs that would allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban and it would force a prediction market site like Calcium Polymarket to leave the state or face felony charges. The law takes effect in August. So here is what the person who introduced the measure said. We as a state should decide how best and what regulations we think should attach to gambling to protect public safety, to protect our kids. The law has a carve out for event contracts that serve as an insurance policy in the event of harm or loss sustained and for the purchase of securities and other commodities. Now here's where the Trump administration comes in and this gets technical so Everybody stick with us. D2 let's put it up here on the screen. The Trump administration is now suing Minnesota over the prediction market ban. They say here's the doj. Minnesota's attempt to criminalize derivatives contracts is precisely what Congress sought to prevent. If Minnesota's law is permitted to go into effect, the exchanges that offer these long standing contracts as well as those who partner with them can be prosecuted as felons. This is a flagrant and unprecedented incursion into the Commission's exclusive regulatory sphere must be preliminarily and permanently enjoined. That means that of the Trump administration is that prediction markets are only in the federal domain and must be only regulated by the cftc. However, don't forget the CFTC is not just suing Minnesota, they are suing even red states. Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Wisconsin, many with Republican governors or state legislators and others which had advanced these measures trying to ban these prediction markets because they allege that it is gambling, while the CFTC that says that it is a derivatives market which is long held. Now I just want everybody to ask a very basic question. Have you been able to trade on what 60 Minutes is going to say for a long standing time, yes or no question? Have you been able to trade on what color the dildo is that will be thrown on a wnba? The Most lurid example, but there are many. Have you been able to trade on whether the Ayatollah is going to be removed or not?
- [05:20]
Saagar Enjeti
Whether Taylor Swift is going to get pregnant.
- [05:22]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Or whether Taylor Swift is going to get pregnant. I mean, I could go on forever. The bad Bunny halftime performances. The Maduro raid.
- [05:29]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. When a particular special oper is going to happen.
- [05:33]
Krystal Ball
What was the one that we covered here? The guy with the weather, Hot air.
- [05:36]
Saagar Enjeti
Oh yeah. At the Paris airport, Charles de Gaulle airport where he was betting on the temperature there and then was using a hairdryer to heat up the sensors so that he could win.
- [05:47]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. So this is what the CFTC wants us to believe. They want us to believe that these prediction markets are an extension of longstanding derivatives and commodity trades. And you know, I actually went and did a lot of research. Cftc, which why does it exist? What is the basis for it? The entire basis for the CFTC and for regulation period on financial derivatives is that we allow always have derivatives markets on things that we believe are important to the public good. So the history of the CFTC and of commodities are things like oil or things like corn, meat futures, contract coffee, you know, any of these consumable goods. Now why do we allow that? Because it leads to a lot of wild speculation. It allows market price and lock in contracts for producers to be able to produce their goods that they bring to market. Which we all agree generally as a society, we need a meat contract, we need an oil contract, we need corn contracts. We have lived for centuries without prediction markets. On what I'm gonna say on this show or who's gonna beat the spread or 18 leg parliament. Yes, these are real things that are offered by Kalshee. 18 leg parlays on how the Knicks were going to perform last night. And not just are they going to win or not are they going to win by X amount of points? Are you going to shoot? You know, is this particular who's going
- [07:08]
Saagar Enjeti
to get free throws?
- [07:10]
Krystal Ball
Right? How many free throws? You know what the halftime, you know, whatever is going to look like, who gets X amount of playing time, massive insider trading risk. But more importantly for this whole discussion, it's gambling. And why have we always separated, legally and even rhetorically gambling from commodities markets? Now often they resemble each other, but what is the difference? Gambling is not about social utility, which we allow. We allow this legalized form of commodities future trading because it's important to us as a society to be able to function. There is no what societal good comes from trading on these damn Markets, Nothing, literally nothing.
- [07:52]
Saagar Enjeti
Farmers came to them and said, hey, we like to bet on weather as a hedge against if there's issues with the crops or whatever. Okay, Boba, put a carve on it, like, got it. Social utility. I see it. All right, we'll do that. And that's the version that's passed. Of course, the Trump administration is still claiming, oh, this is bad for farmers, blah, blah, blah. But I mean, just think about it logically. 80 plus percent of the bets that are made on polymarket and Kalshi are sports bets. Like, it's blatant gambling. And for, you know, forever states have had the right to decide when and how and whether they're going to permit that type of gambling in their states. And so what the Trump administration here is saying is you don't get to have that right anymore. You don't get to have that say at the state level. And this is the party that's supposed to be those, you know, small government, local control party. They're saying, no, as a federal government, we have decided that we are going to open the floodgates to gambling on Taylor Swift's pregnancy date and dildos at the WNBA game in every state. And it really doesn't matter what you or your citizens, what their elected representatives think about any of it, because we are profiting from it. I mean, that's. And that's the bottom line is, you know, both with the. And we can put this tear sheet from the New York Times up on the screen, D3, which is a fantastic deep dive into the CFTC and the way they say how prediction markets and crypto firms steamrolled a watchdog agency. And at every turn, the reason why the floodgates have been open for crypto, which is rife with all sorts of scams and schemes and rug pulls, including rug pulls pulled by the President and the first lady of the United Prediction Markets, is because there is a financial benefit for the Trump family directly and there are financial benefits for Trump allies directly. Remember, Trump was originally opposed to crypto. He thought it was bad for the US Dollar. He was like, you know, no, it's a competitor of the US Dollar. I don't like it. And then what happened? Then he got a bunch of crypto money and he got sold on, hey, you can have your own crypto coin. And now the vast bulk of his wealth comes from crypto. And so lo and behold, not only do they really not regulate it whatsoever, but bunch of people who had been previously indicted for various fraudulent activities regarding crypto have been let off the hook by Trump. If you look at the ties here, they have a great chart. But we can put this in post in this New York Times piece where you've got the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and then you've got some actions that they've taken. So they fast tracked the application of an offshoot of Gemini. This is the Winklevoss twins, who were Trump allies whose founders backed American Bitcoin which is tied to Eric Trump. They sidelined staff who questioned Crypto.com, a business partner of Trump Media and Technology. And of course those companies all connected to the Trump family. They approved a request by Polymarket after investment by 1789 Capital, which is who Don Jr. Don Jr. Is involved with both Polymarket and with Couchee. So of course they're gonna go to bat for them. Of course they're gonna let them do whatever they want, wherever they want. And so while white collar fraud enforcement is at an all time low with this administration, where they will draw the line and where they will go in and fight and where they will try to push back is any state, any political entity that says, we actually wanna draw some boundaries here. We actually don't want to submit to this anywhere, anytime. Anything gambling on demand, which has proven to be extremely deleterious to the financial status, especially if young men are the group that has been preyed upon the most and most susceptible.
- [11:34]
Krystal Ball
And look, this belies even the basic statistics. If you are gambling on these platforms, which is what they are, you're going to lose like the vast majority of the winners, the vast majority of the profits go to an extremely select small group of traders. I was reading recently, in fact one of my friends even told me, like Susquehanna, one of those, like, you know, like very sophisticated trading desk, they have a sports desk now specifically as sharp bettors to go in and to find inefficiencies in various different lines, to hammer them and to basically take your money. Look, remember in Kalshi, this is one of the most nefarious things about it. One of the things that they say is that reason why they're better than DraftKings. And this is a fair argument, so let's interrogate it a little bit, is that they don't set the line, is that they're the market makers, right on both sides of the trade, they take a small percentage of the fee. Now remember though that because if you take a percentage of the trade, that means how do they make money? They want you to trade a lot. So that's number one in Fact they want you to get basically addicted to trading. Now second though is that while a casino will set the line like plus or minus whatever on a game, minus 110 or something like that for the spread, and then move that to hedge their own risk, the Kalshi is sitting there and offering the ability for a market to be able to take your line as well. Well, what that means is that with these two people on the other side of the trade is that there's a heavy amount like influence and market making that happens for the people who are taking the action and from. Again, I know this sounds complicated and I'm still a relative layman on how this all works. It's very complicated. But what it means is, from what I understand is it gives these sharps the ability to not only hedge a lot of their own betting risk from the traders, but also to offer different odds based upon the amount that you are betting in terms of a trade, which is not necessarily the same as a sports bet or a casino. So anyways, what I have seen generally is that with all of this like amount of influence, the vast majority of the retail normal trader is losing on these prediction markets. And while their argument is, well, the vast majority of day traders lose money. Yeah, that's true. That's one reason I opposed the Trump administration lowering the threshold of $25,000 for day trading. Because most people who are doing it are fucking idiots and are losing all their money. But you know, there is no such thing as there is. Let's say with the S&P 500 or Vanguard or any of that, like with prediction markets where if you are, you know, just a passive investor in these index funds, you'll make money over the long run. There is no, there is no like even artifice for the average person to invest or trade on a prediction market where they're gonna make money in the long run. It literally doesn't exist. It exists purely to siphon off gains from desperate people basically who are on there. What was that article that we had where the guy took out a loan and then bet it all on Kalshi? I mean, first of all, what an idiot. But second, like, okay, we recognize we have a lot of idiots in our society, so we have to protect them. At least I do. That's what I think. And so what do we do? We're like, hey, you can't have payday loans. Because that was the argument for it. The argument for payday loans was, well, if people are willing to take it, then why shouldn't they be able to offer that service. And we're all like, yeah, I don't know, it's usery. It's a lindy thing that even though it may exist and even supported supposedly by the free market, we all think that's bad. And so we don't want people to be exploited that way because we recognize the power imbalance. Well, why can't we recognize it here? And it's basically corruption. There's just no other. There's no other story behind it.
- [15:14]
Saagar Enjeti
That's exactly right. Yeah, this is kind of grim. Let's put D6 up on the screen. So Axios did this poll of like what companies people trust and oh yeah, this is great. Polymarket and fanduel and Calshay and whatever. Like they, they did decently well. So they found they had a higher reputation ranking at number 45, Poly Market specifically than companies like Verizon, Ford, Target, Uber, Disney and Bank of America. Now, I mean, I might say none of the above in terms of trusting any of these companies, you know, so I'm not sure how indicative this is, but they had this quote here. They said 64% of Gen Z and millennials say the only realistic way to build significant wealth is quote, alternative methods like crypto gambling or retail stocks. That's what their poll found. 2, 2/3 of basically people under the age of 44 said, the only chance I have is gambling. That's it. That is my shot. And that's what we've been talking about. I mean, you talk about they're preying on desperate people. Well, the whole generation is desperate. That's all we have is desperate people, basically. And they're work enslave in a way. Things are getting more expensive. Housing prices are out of control, never going to be able to own anything. And they're like, what have I got to lose? I'm going to take out that loan. I'm going to bet it on cowsheet on some sports team that I know something about. And I'm going to hope for the best because it's my only fricking shot. Like that's what we're talking about here. It is as dystopian as that is the American dream today, that's it. There's no work hard, play by the rules, go to college. No, it's hope that you have some insider knowledge on, some bet that you can leverage so that you don't have to suffer and struggle and never own anything in your entire life. That is the American dream today. That's the reality this is where, you
- [17:01]
Krystal Ball
know, people are like, oh, why do you do so many segments? Because I know, I know the truth. I'm like, look, people, we talk about it all the time, desperation, et cetera. I understand that there's still some personal agents. We gotta spread the word, all right? Like, how can we live in a society where people are trusting Polymarket, Kalshi and DraftKings as much as Verizon Target? Like, listen, I get it, all right? I've had bad experiences with all of these major companies. But you know, bank of America is a very highly regulated enterprise. Yes, they will rip you off, et cetera, and there's a lot of structural reasons, but they're not explicitly rooting for you to lose or creating the entire thing. You can still get decently wealthy by just using one of these random stock exchanges and just putting your money passively into the S&P 500. And yet, oh, Robinhood and Day Trading and DraftKings. And you know, I understand it at a sociological level, but. But it is sick. Like, it's beyond sick that we even have this level of trust in these companies. And this is also where predatory advertising comes into play. Cal State running ads for teenagers or has in the past, allegedly, from what I've seen, which I know that they've denied. And they're saying that they're not running them anymore, being like, oh, it's an easy way for you to make money. DraftKings and FanDuel have the most expensive advertising money can buy for every sports season. About the various pick ems and how they'll go free $100 if you bet five, you win 200, you're like, really? You're gonna give $200 for free? You think a multi billion dollar company just made all that money by giving you $200 after you win five? Or maybe they know what they're doing, but everybody falls for it. And it's because, like you said, they're desperate. They're just beyond desperate. So I don't know. I just know that I think in the long run, I hope it gets banned and I think eventually it will. Maybe 10 years or so from now, but. But the gap of the damage that will be wrought in the interim, it's immense. I think it already is. If you look at the amount of bankruptcies and other things that happen, the amount of domestic violence that happens as a result of legalization of gambling, it's statistically proven. Look it up if you want to. You can look at, you know, it's domestic violence, alcohol, Consumption bankruptcies, the aggregate I think borrowing rate, like debt, goes up in every state that's legalized gambling. Again, the vast, vast majority of people who bet on these platforms, you will lose. If you've been betting for more than six months and you're not limited, that means you're a loser. Congratulations. They're telling you you are a loser. Thank you for continuing to bet with us. But that's how the rules are written as of right now and nothing's gonna change.
- [19:37]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't know the legal ins and outs, but it would not surprise me if the Trump administration succeeds in the suit to block Minnesota.
- [19:43]
Krystal Ball
No, sorry, I should have clarify that as well. They're gonna win from what I understand, because of the way that they have defined the CFTC gets a broad amount of deference whenever it comes to derivatives contracts, regulation. Especially with the current composition of the U.S. supreme Court.
- [19:57]
Saagar Enjeti
You've got a very libertarian Supreme Court on the side of money.
- [20:00]
Krystal Ball
And then after that it's over. Gambling is now legal. The idea of the states had any influence at all. After the court rules, it will be legal in all 50 states. So all these travel, casino, remember they beat the sports books in California. Not enough people talk about that. It went to the referendum and Californ has actually went against sports gambling, which is crazy. Texas as well. So two of the most populous states in the union do not have legal sports gambling. They're like the white whale of the gambling industry and of Kalshi and DraftKings actually like it that way or sorry, Kalshi and Polymarket like it that way cause they want to be the only option. Soon it will be legal nationwide after the Supreme Court rules and then we'll really see what gambling America looks like. Okay, let's talk about Hasan part.
- [20:44]
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- [21:20]
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- [22:50]
Saagar Enjeti
That's innerbalance.com Fox News Digital has a what they're claiming is a scoop that hits a little bit close to home here for us. We can put this up on the screen. They are claiming that Hasan Piker, who they described as Marxist political influencer and Codepink co founder Susan Madea Benjamin have been subpoenaed as part of a wider investigation into whether U.S. organizations and leaders violated U.S. laws and sanctions in supporting Cuba's communist regime. Again, this is according to Fox News Digital. They also published some like paparazzi style photos of Hasan, like walking his dog for some reason. In any case, what they point to here is allegations that they stayed at a banned or sanctioned hotel that Americans are not allowed to stay at. But we happen to know because our own Ryan Grimm was also on that trip, that that is not remotely the case. So joining us now to talk about all of this is of course Ryan Grim. Great to see you Ryan.
- [23:47]
Krystal Ball
Good to see you Ryan.
- [23:48]
Ryan Grim
How you guys doing?
- [23:48]
Saagar Enjeti
Good. Good man. Have you been subpoenaed? I have not been subpoenaed But Hassan and Medea Benjamin have actually also not been subpoenaed here. So what are we thinking about this news?
- [23:58]
Ryan Grim
Right? Yeah, I talked to both of them. Neither has been subpoenaed. And so the Fox News report is just factually incorrect. Like if you're gonna subpoena somebody, you subpoena them, right?
- [24:10]
Krystal Ball
So you have not been served by the federal government. They have not been served by the federal government. Hasan reacted to this, Ryan, saying it's bullshit. And actually they didn't stay. You guys didn't stay in the wrong hotel. Let's take a listen, we'll get your reaction.
- [24:21]
Ryan Grim
I'm not gonna lie to you guys.
- [24:24]
Krystal Ball
It's.
- [24:25]
Ryan Grim
It's not great. The news is not great, ok? I mean, it's bullshit.
- [24:32]
Krystal Ball
We didn't actually stay at the wrong hotel. That was just something that people made up on Twitter. Except for an American citizen who recently did violate OFAC and stayed at a hotel that America does not allow American citizens to stay in. It wasn't me though. It was Nick Shirley. Literally, the hotel that Nick Shirley was in was actually on the state sponsor of terrorism list. Ok, ok. So Ryan, the basis as I understand. God, I never thought I'd know so much about Cuban hotels is you guys stayed in the hotel which is allowed, right? Right.
- [25:09]
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
- [25:10]
Krystal Ball
Nick Shirley stayed in a luxury hotel, quote unquote, which is under OFAC sanction. OFAC being office.
- [25:16]
Ryan Grim
It's a famous. I forget exactly what hotel he stayed in. But. But it's famously sanctioned.
- [25:21]
Krystal Ball
Okay? Famously sanctioned.
- [25:22]
Ryan Grim
It's like a very well known Cuban government owned hotel that has been around for many decades and is quite explicitly listed as one you cannot stay in.
- [25:33]
Krystal Ball
Cannot stay there.
- [25:34]
Ryan Grim
And so Shirley, from his room at this hotel put out the broadcast about how he was staying there.
- [25:42]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [25:42]
Ryan Grim
And it's like, bro, I don't agree with these rules. I think they're silly. And he.
- [25:46]
Saagar Enjeti
I think it's called Hotel Nacional. Yes, it's like literally like the government hotel of Cuba.
- [25:54]
Krystal Ball
Wait, Hotel Nacional is seriously the name?
- [25:57]
Ryan Grim
Yeah, that's why it was so obvious to everybody, like, oh my God, dude, I don't even have to check the list. Like, this one's absolutely.
- [26:04]
Krystal Ball
Like if we were working with an 80 IQ, we might have, we might have put two and two together.
- [26:08]
Saagar Enjeti
But I mean, there's no risk to him. Yeah, he's not going to be subpoenaed. There's not going to be any problem for him.
- [26:12]
Ryan Grim
What's the statute of limitations?
- [26:14]
Krystal Ball
Oh, good point, good point.
- [26:15]
Ryan Grim
Violating if it's more than three years.
- [26:17]
Saagar Enjeti
President Plattner, I need you to look into this.
- [26:19]
Ryan Grim
Okay, so, Ryan, so we stayed. And I can even tell you it's called the.
- [26:22]
Krystal Ball
What hotel did you stay at?
- [26:23]
Ryan Grim
Abero Star, Marquez de la Torre. Okay, go ahead, look it up. Look it up.
- [26:28]
Krystal Ball
All right, go ahead.
- [26:29]
Saagar Enjeti
And so where did this come from, do you think?
- [26:31]
Ryan Grim
There was somebody who tweeted that we stayed at a different hotel than we did stay at, and that tweet went viral and we were not. We didn't have much Internet connection, so there wasn't any. Nobody was responding to it. So for two days or so, this tweet went viral saying that Hasan and this convoy stayed at this illegal sanctioned hotel. And so therefore they're breaking sanctions and it's criminal. And then when we got back, we're like, actually no. Cause it became this big thing. Like you stayed at a five star hotel. And we're like, well, the reason we stayed there is because there's a very small list of legal hotels that you can stay at that can handle several hundred people in a group. And this is one of them. That's why we stayed there. So we talked about that a lot.
- [27:13]
Saagar Enjeti
I remember you, I think, went on with Piers Morgan and explained all of this. Like, here's the reason we stayed in this hotel because you're only allowed. Which is not a policy we agree with, but you're only allowed to stay in these certain hotels. So we wanted to abide by the policy and that's what we did.
- [27:26]
Ryan Grim
Right. I think this one is like managed by a Spanish company or something. So that makes it legal because then you're not giving money.
- [27:31]
Krystal Ball
So the other accusation was that you were funded by the Cubans to go there.
- [27:37]
Ryan Grim
Well, that's completely preposterous.
- [27:39]
Krystal Ball
Well, go into it because it matters.
- [27:40]
Ryan Grim
Yeah, yeah. So that doesn't withstand any scrutiny at all. They did not. The second charge is that this American citizen who now lives in China, Roy Singham, who funds a bunch of like left wing causes that he funded, is true. That he funds Code Pink or he has funded Code Pink in the past. Everybody who went on this trip, though, had to pay, like. So I paid sa. Paid. Right. Like you pay for the flight and the hotel.
- [28:10]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [28:10]
Ryan Grim
And the food. So.
- [28:12]
Krystal Ball
So there's no violation here.
- [28:13]
Ryan Grim
So there's no. So there's no.
- [28:14]
Krystal Ball
Because I can go to Cuba, can I? If I want to.
- [28:16]
Ryan Grim
You can go. You can go to Cuba.
- [28:17]
Krystal Ball
Anybody can go to Cuba.
- [28:18]
Ryan Grim
There are now, under Biden, under Obama, anybody could go. Right? Biden and Trump moved it back to. You have to have these various exceptions.
- [28:27]
Krystal Ball
Sure.
- [28:27]
Ryan Grim
One of them is journalism. And it's so. It's not even close whether or not I was allowed to go on this. Of course, I would argue Hasan too.
- [28:36]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, Hasan made an entire documentary about history.
- [28:38]
Ryan Grim
Yeah, he did journalism and he's paid. And you can't be a fake journalist. You have to have a demonstrated career of doing freelance or regular journalism.
- [28:46]
Krystal Ball
And Hasan, obviously, who decides that? The government, the US Government or the Cuban government?
- [28:49]
Ryan Grim
It's just if you get challenged, you'd have to be like, here, I'm not a fake.
- [28:53]
Krystal Ball
I don't even accept that. That's bullshit.
- [28:54]
Ryan Grim
But it is bullshit. But then the other one is a humanitarian aid for the benefit of the Cuban people. Like, that is one of the exceptions that allows travel. The plane that we went on had tons of aid that was organized by a group that. This is what they do. They work with ofac, they collect aid and they deliver it to. OFAC is like the sanctions list. And they deliver it to groups on the island that are cleared by OFAC to be able to receive the aid. So people going on that mission
- [29:28]
Krystal Ball
have
- [29:29]
Ryan Grim
gotten approval ahead of time. Like, it's, it's not something. They're not winging it. Like Nick Shirley.
- [29:34]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. So Medea Benjamin would presumably fall easily.
- [29:37]
Ryan Grim
She goes multiple times a year, probably to Cuba, like in bringing aid there. Like, it's what, it's one of the things. It's like, if you ever notice, she's not in Congress yelling at people. She's probably in Cuba, like, delivering aid.
- [29:48]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [29:48]
Ryan Grim
And she's been doing this for decades. And so they know what, they know what the laws are, and so they got it.
- [29:53]
Saagar Enjeti
So what do you make of this? Is this like, okay, they're moving forward with NSPM7. They're trying to crack down on any left wing groups, journalists, anyone aligned with the left. Is this Fox News Digital just being led down some rabbit hole? And it's not serious? Like, how seriously are you taking this? And it says in the article, oh, they're looking at what, some 40 other people who were on this trip for potential criminal sanctions as well. So it definitely touches on you directly. How seriously are you taking them?
- [30:23]
Ryan Grim
But it's the most powerful government in the world, probably. So you gotta take their threats seriously. I think it's an attempt to chill dissent against war with Cuba. Like, I think that is because I think Trump very clearly and Rubio definitely, they want to go to war. They want to, like, or do some type of Venezuela style military action. I think they're also being led down a rabbit hole because the Fox News report said that investigators had information that they stayed in an illegal hotel.
- [30:53]
Saagar Enjeti
And it's like, oh my God, investigators. Some Rand person on Twitter.
- [30:57]
Krystal Ball
Well, wait, Ryan, why don't you sue them for defamation?
- [30:59]
Ryan Grim
Well, they didn't mention me.
- [31:01]
Krystal Ball
Okay, well why doesn't Hasan sue them for defamation or anybody mentioned inside of it that's blatantly false.
- [31:05]
Ryan Grim
He could.
- [31:05]
Krystal Ball
The evidence is clear.
- [31:06]
Ryan Grim
Right. And also it's a.
- [31:07]
Krystal Ball
It actually would be malicious intent. I'm in my opinion.
- [31:10]
Breaking Points Ad Voice
Right.
- [31:10]
Ryan Grim
Because specific the way that malice can work. It's a specific claim. They have been subpoenaed.
- [31:14]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [31:15]
Ryan Grim
So you can check that fact. Hey, Madea. Hey, Hassan. Have you been subpoenaed? No, I have not. Like it's a black and white question. I have not. Should they be subpoenaed? Should they not like that. That's a separate judgment question. Have they been subpoenaed? No, I'm not judging.
- [31:28]
Saagar Enjeti
I wonder, did Fox News Digital reach out to them for comment before running with this?
- [31:32]
Ryan Grim
They probably did, but the fact that it's incorrect and I doubt they've updated it. So now they know that it's not true.
- [31:42]
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
- [31:43]
Ryan Grim
And if they haven't updated their story, they're continuing to publish something false that is obviously quite damaging to Medea and Hassan, which would qualify as defamation.
- [31:55]
Krystal Ball
I'm looking at this right here, March 23, 2026. So exactly two months ago, New York Times, Mr. Piker and other activists stayed at the Ibro Star Marquez de la Tora in Havana. So this is an established record of science that could be known. Yeah, it isn't known now. We shouldn't go too deep in the woods, but I mean, I do think this type of stuff matters. You can't just be rolling around saying that you violated U.S. sanctions when you obviously didn't. At least from what we see right now. Especially when you have additional person who actually did violate sanctions and nothing is happening. I'm sorry, I can't get over a Hotel Nasional. You did famous hotel.
- [32:32]
Ryan Grim
Like not to, Nick. Sure.
- [32:33]
Krystal Ball
I'll tell you, I'll tell you what I would say there, you know, it sounds nice, Nick. Yeah, I, I.
- [32:37]
Ryan Grim
Would you broadcast from there? Would you broadcast from there?
- [32:40]
Krystal Ball
The government?
- [32:41]
Ryan Grim
Why?
- [32:41]
Krystal Ball
I could stay wherever I want to stay. All right. Why should, why should they tell me where?
- [32:47]
Ryan Grim
Absolutely. It's my money.
- [32:49]
Krystal Ball
Why can't I stay where I'm at?
- [32:50]
Ryan Grim
I wonder if you get a jury trial because I think a jury would be like Hotel Nancy now looks cool. Why can't he stay there? Right? But it would be against the law. You'd have to challenge the constitutionality of the law.
- [33:01]
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- [33:50]
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- [35:24]
Saagar Enjeti
though, as an indication that this trip, like, it got. It bothered them? Yeah, they didn't like that. There were Americans there who were saying, this is what's going on and drawing attention to it. And it wasn't lost on me that shortly after that trip, Trump did allow this one Russian oil tanker to go to the island. Because I think there was a sense of pressure that came from just being there and saying, look, this is what's happening in the hospitals when the lights go out. This is what they have to do for these babies that are on ventilators or in incubators in order for them to survive. So I do think it is a sign that this had some power, had some impact.
- [36:01]
Ryan Grim
I think that's exactly right because. Because I think in particular on our Cuba policy, it cannot withstand five seconds of scrutiny. It can only survive as a political winner if the only people that care about it are in South Florida and nobody else is paying attention to it. Because once you start paying attention, like, okay, what is the argument here? They said now they have drones that are going to attack Key West. It's like, okay, nobody believes that, you know, they have Russian and Chinese spy bases on there. It's like, the Russians and Chinese, they're all in our phones. Like, what do you.
- [36:36]
Saagar Enjeti
They're in Mar a Lago.
- [36:38]
Ryan Grim
They're in Mar a Lago. They need a base on Cuba. And then it's like, we're going to punish them by perpetuating blackout, like, blackouts on the island. Like what? Like none of it stands up.
- [36:50]
Saagar Enjeti
And I don't remember which politician it was, but was basically pressed on the cruelty of this. And she was effectively like, yeah, some people, some babies may die, but it's worth it.
- [37:02]
Ryan Grim
Yeah. I think Maria Salazar was like, oh,
- [37:05]
Krystal Ball
of course it was. It was my guess before you even.
- [37:07]
Ryan Grim
Yeah, she said. She said it hurts all of us when a mother has to watch her child starve, but we have to understand that their freedom is more important than that.
- [37:18]
Krystal Ball
Right?
- [37:18]
Ryan Grim
It's like, yeah.
- [37:22]
Krystal Ball
Wow.
- [37:22]
Ryan Grim
So that.
- [37:23]
Krystal Ball
Well, what does it say, though, Ryan, about the fact that she keeps getting elected, man. And you know what? A lot of the Cuban diaspora probably agree. Not all of them. I would not speak for all of them, but they agree with that. I mean, that's the reality of this. I have never. These, you Know these, the Cubans and the Venezuelans who are down in South Florida, they're like the Iranian Pahlavi people. Their capacity for wanting to save their people by forcing them to suffer and potentially be invaded is unbelievable. And they have such a hold on our government, including the Secretary of State of the United States of America, who's apparently. What was his father's dying wish was to free Cuba. I mean, I'm not making this up. These are in books that they've written.
- [38:02]
Ryan Grim
And the South Floridans in particular are deeply funded by taxpayers.
- [38:06]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [38:06]
Ryan Grim
So it's one thing with aipac, which organizes kind of its own money, and then we send a lot of money to Israel, but we spend and hundreds of millions of dollars that we send to South Florida, propping up this anti Cuban government movement that then lobbies, gives that money back to politicians who then support the thing, who then pass more laws that send more money to South Florida so that they can continue to do this. They fund. They do actual, like paramilitary terrorist operations
- [38:36]
Krystal Ball
and have since the 1950s.
- [38:38]
Ryan Grim
They took down. They took down a Cuban airplane, civilian passenger airplane. They. They bombed. Actually, I think it was Hotel Nacional in the 1990s. Like, you could check. Check that one out.
- [38:50]
Krystal Ball
That was my favorite part of our segment with Juan when Ryan and I were doing the segment with Juan and we were talking about this humanitarian group where the he goes, well, you know, they're also like a paramilitary terrorist organization. Yeah. I was like, what was that. What was that part about the bombing and the paramount.
- [39:04]
Ryan Grim
And that whole network is funded by American terror.
- [39:06]
Krystal Ball
Tax.
- [39:07]
Ryan Grim
Tax dollars. It'd be like, imagine if the Somalians in Minneapolis developed a lot of political power and started lobbying Washington.
- [39:14]
Krystal Ball
No, I know, it's crazy.
- [39:15]
Ryan Grim
Get a bunch of taxpayer dollars sent to Minneapolis so that they could then work out whatever grudges they have back in Somalia.
- [39:23]
Krystal Ball
Like Al Shabaab or something.
- [39:25]
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And they're. And. And then we have to start bombing, like, only parts of Somalia because we're trying to help one faction over another. American people are like, yeah, no, I don't think so. How about we worry about Minnesota?
- [39:36]
Saagar Enjeti
Would they be. Because they don't seem to be.
- [39:39]
Ryan Grim
I think with Somalia, we would, like, the public would be like, no, we're not doing that for you.
- [39:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [39:44]
Ryan Grim
I mean, somehow it's okay.
- [39:45]
Saagar Enjeti
It really does come back to money because you do have all these different diaspora groups that do have these various ideological views about whatever is going back in their country of origination. But the reason it becomes a problem is when they are organized and have lots of money behind them. That's what's. You know, it's a problem with Israel, problem with Iran, problem with Cuba. That's. And then you also have these, like, ideological factions. Rubio being a primary example of it. That tie in with that in the whole neocon worldview, where they'll never stop fighting the Cold War. That leads it to being such a potent combination.
- [40:19]
Ryan Grim
And the funny thing is, both Rubio and Cruz, their parents left under the gangster. Dude, I know that. Female Castro overthrow, right?
- [40:27]
Bethenny Frankel
Yeah.
- [40:27]
Saagar Enjeti
Doesn't Rubio lie about that, too?
- [40:29]
Ryan Grim
He fudges it very deeply.
- [40:30]
Krystal Ball
And he said something like, he fled Cuba.
- [40:33]
Ryan Grim
Yes.
- [40:33]
Krystal Ball
But it's like
- [40:35]
Ryan Grim
Cruz has this. Cruz had this incredible moment. I think it was on Tucker where he was like. And my father was tortured by the Cubans. And he's like, it was by Batista, actually. But still.
- [40:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Because he knew Tucker would call about him, right?
- [40:52]
Ryan Grim
Yes. Wow.
- [40:54]
Saagar Enjeti
Tucker's incredible.
- [40:55]
Ryan Grim
Oh, okay. You acknowledge it.
- [40:56]
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, it's funny, especially the Nick Shirley part is funny, but it's also not because, like you said, this is one of the most powerful. I don't think it is the most powerful government on the planet, but they still imagine themselves to be that. And they have a lot of power and can throw their weight around and have the courts in their pockets and all that stuff. So it has to be taken seriously.
- [41:13]
Ryan Grim
And the through line is incredible. Yeah. It's New York gangsters who ran Cuba kind of basically on behalf of American intelligence operations, setting up drug trafficking operations where all the heroin was flowing through Castro overthrows that those same mafia gangsters and allied with the South Florida terrorists are now just trying to take back over. Yeah, it's incredible.
- [41:37]
Krystal Ball
All right, well, here we are.
- [41:40]
Ryan Grim
The one that's gonna investigate.
- [41:41]
Saagar Enjeti
He's the real problem. Yeah. That's the issue in all of this.
- [41:44]
Krystal Ball
We should investigate these Cubans. Who are they? Just a little bit.
- [41:48]
Ryan Grim
They just try to raid it with a bug boat, whatever. Stacked with weapons.
- [41:52]
Krystal Ball
Exactly.
- [41:53]
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
- [41:53]
Krystal Ball
I forgot about it.
- [41:54]
Ryan Grim
It's like two weeks ago and they
- [41:54]
Krystal Ball
fired a bunch of weapons. Exactly. Totally covered up, man. All right, I'm about to get hot. All right, thank you to everybody who's been watching. We appreciate it. We'll have a great show with Ryan and Emily for everybody tomorrow. See you then.
- [42:16]
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Krystal Ball
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