5/27/26: Iran Vows Retaliation, Prof Pape On Negotiations, MAGA Texas Blowout & MORE!

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal & Saagar — May 27, 2026 Episode Summary

Episode Theme & Purpose

This episode centers on pivotal international and domestic political developments, including U.S.-Iran tensions, the complex state of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, the evolving military situation in Lebanon and Gaza, and the fallout from recent primary elections—most notably the Trump-endorsed upheaval in Texas. The episode also features University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape for a deep dive into U.S.-Iran war dynamics, and closes with a noteworthy look at DCCC vs. progressive political dynamics in California.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. U.S.-Iran-Lebanon Conflict & Negotiations

Trump-Netanyahu Call & War Escalations [06:00–14:53]

• Context: Ongoing U.S. efforts to manage Israeli military operations in Lebanon to avoid derailing nuclear negotiations with Iran. Israel intensifies attacks, while the U.S. tries to restrain escalation.

• Insight: Reports indicate the U.S. has privately agreed to some of Iran’s "red lines," particularly around Iran keeping, but down-blending, enriched uranium domestically rather than exporting it.

• Quote:

  “The reporting out of Iran is that the US has effectively agreed...to a lot of the Iranian red lines...” — Ryan [07:05]

• Iranian Skepticism: Iran remains distrustful of U.S. intentions, with Tehran threatening retaliation for recent U.S. strikes that targeted missile sites and mine-laying boats in Iran.

• U.S. Domestic Politics: U.S. officials are reportedly asking Iran for time to "manage domestic politics" before pushing forward—a nod to pro-Netanyahu forces in the U.S.

• Trump's Peace Gambit: Trump is trying to push Muslim-majority countries to join the Abraham Accords as part of a regional peace deal, to the skepticism and “laughter” from the region. Saudi Arabia reiterates its stance of no peace with Israel until Palestinian issues are resolved.

The “Defensive Strike” Dilemma [09:58–10:30]

• Satirical Take: “It is funny to think of ‘defensive’ getting used all the way to include even strikes on Iranian soil.” — Ryan [09:58]

The “Escalation Trap” and the Role of Mediators [11:13–12:24]

• U.S. Frustration: Lindsey Graham attacks mediators (Pakistan, Oman, Qatar) as biased, signaling the U.S.'s waning influence.
• Cycle of Escalation: The U.S. can “shout at the referees or escalate”—neither option being desirable.

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2. Lebanon Battlefield Innovations & Drone Warfare [19:37–25:08]

Hezbollah Drone Tactics [19:51–23:02]

• Field Report: Drone footage shows Hezbollah targeting Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in southern Lebanon using advanced and jam-resistant drones with fiber optics.
• Quote:

  “These are first-person drones that have fiber optic cables connected...prevents them from being jammed…” — Ryan [19:59]

Israeli Countermeasures [21:13–25:08]

• Netting & Cages: The IDF improvises anti-drone solutions, from draping neighborhoods in netting to retrofitting vehicles with cages—often ineffective and revealing troop locations.
• Morale & Politics: Mounting casualties and equipment losses are triggering criticism of Netanyahu by Israel’s military establishment.

Humanitarian Crisis at Karaoun Dam [25:08–27:38]

• Escalation: Israel bombs the Karaoun Dam (10–20% of Lebanon’s electricity), risking a catastrophe and threatening tens of thousands of civilians.
• Civilian Toll: In one day, Israel kills 31 in Lebanon (including 4 children, 3 women), 14 in Gaza, and strikes near a Palestinian refugee camp.

Ceasefire Breaches & Asymmetry [29:18–30:43]

• Hamas Assassination: Israel kills Hamas’ new military chief during a supposed ceasefire—highlighting persistent violence.
• Quote:

  “There’s just so little dignity and integrity in agreeing to a ceasefire deal, and then … killing a military commander and his wife and everybody around him.” — Krystal [28:56]

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3. Iran’s Leverage & Military Tech [31:09–32:10]

• Iran Locks Onto F-35: Video surfaces of Iran radar-locking a U.S. F-35, undermining the plane’s touted stealth.
• Cost Comparison: U.S. weapons spending ridiculed, with Ryan comparing the price of drones to the cost of keeping rural hospitals open.

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4. The Robert Pape Interview: Nuclear Traps & Oil Economics [36:18–58:59]

The “Escalation Trap” [40:36–47:01]

• Trap Defined: Trump—caught between making concessions and appearing weak—vacillates between negotiation and military strikes.

• Quote:

  “President Trump is having a hard time owning the L here, and that’s what’s keeping him in the trap.” — Prof. Pape [44:10]

• Prediction: U.S. could be stuck in this cycle for months, especially as domestic inventories (like oil) dwindle by mid-July.

What Does Iran Want? [47:46–49:27]

• Likely Moves: Iran likely to pursue indirect but high-impact actions (e.g., affecting global oil flow) to maintain pressure, not always direct retaliation.
• Nuclear Deal: Discussion on down-blending uranium (rather than exporting), which slightly delays weaponization but allows Iran to remain a threshold nuclear state.

Focus on Oil Prices [54:10–58:43]

• Negotiation Priority: Pape argues the essential measure of any deal should be returning oil prices to prewar levels ($65/barrel), as opposed to fixating on nuclear details.

• Quote:

  “What matters to the public … is the price of gas, what they’re really paying.” — Prof. Pape [54:15]

• Breaking News: Iran reportedly proposes a draft agreement: U.S. Navy withdrawal, restoration of shipping, UN Security Council enforcement, but vague on tolls—raising concern about lingering high oil prices.

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5. Economic Fallout: Consumer Confidence & Energy Prices [60:05–74:37]

Hassett Grilled on Consumer Sentiment [61:33–65:24]

• Fox Business Segment: Kevin Hassett claims consumer spending = optimism, downplays negative sentiment.
• Analysis:

  “If Democrats and Independents both are way down on the economy, we should…only look at the Republican sentiment score…So people think when they’re at the grocery store and a bag is costing like $90, that is frustrating to them. No, in fact, that is a sign of your optimism in the economy.” — Ryan [64:32]

Persistently High Oil Prices [68:39–71:56]

• Futures Analysis: Prices predicted to remain high until 2032, affecting all sectors.
• Clean Energy Irony: High oil prices may be a de facto carbon tax, inadvertently boosting clean energy investment.

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6. Election Roundup: Texas Republican Blowout & Senate Map [77:05–101:57]

Texas MAGA Earthquake [77:05–89:50]

• Cornyn Ousted: Longtime establishment GOP Senator John Cornyn is crushed by Attorney General Ken Paxton, buoyed by Trump’s late endorsement—largest such defeat since 1978.

• Quote:

  “He [Paxton] was impeached by his own party for using his public office to enrich himself and his donors at our expense. And that kind of corruption is the rot at the core of this broken system.” — James Talarico, Democratic Senate candidate [81:53]

• Implications: Texas Senate race becomes unexpectedly competitive, with Democrats optimistic but realistic about their chances.

Broader Senate Map & Party Divisions [89:50–97:45]

• Contested Seats: North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Nebraska among others discussed as possible flips, with independents and populist candidates shaking up the landscape.

California & DCCC vs. Progressives [104:36–128:54]

Graham Platner & Democratic Infighting [105:42–115:34]

• Maine Case Study: Graham Platner (Democratic Senate candidate) wins primary despite DCCC opposition. DCCC officials refuse to rally behind him, amplifying party internecine conflict.

• Quote:

  “Vote blue, no matter who. Unless it’s somebody you don’t like.” — Ryan [107:23]

• Analysis: DCCC misreads populist mood, as attacks from figures like Auchincloss (MA) and ex-Biden admin officials act as inadvertent endorsements for outsider candidates.

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7. Candidate Interview: Randy Villegas (California) [115:41–128:54]

• Background: Villegas is a progressive running in California’s Central Valley, endorsed by Bernie Sanders, AOC, and major progressive groups, opposed by the DCCC.
• Grassroots Focus: Emphasizes economic populism, health care, and housing over culture war distractions.
• Quote:

  “People, I think, are also waking up to the fact that we’re not going to have these candidates who are perfect by any means, and that people are actually capable of growing…” — Randy Villegas [117:33]

• Electability Misconceptions: Local Republican support for Villegas undercuts narratives that only establishment Democrats can win red seats.
• Culture War Disconnect:

  "You know how many people have asked me about trans athletes or any of these culture war issues? Zero." — Randy Villegas [126:33]

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Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• “The reporting out of Iran is that the US has effectively agreed to a lot of the Iranian red lines…” — Ryan [07:05]
• “It is funny to think of ‘defensive’ getting used all the way to include even strikes on Iranian soil.” — Ryan [09:58]
• “There’s just so little dignity and integrity in agreeing to a ceasefire deal, and then…killing a military commander and his wife and everybody around him.” — Krystal [28:56]
• “President Trump is having a hard time owning the L here, and that’s what’s keeping him in the trap.” — Prof. Pape [44:10]
• “What matters to the public … is the price of gas, what they’re really paying.” — Prof. Pape [54:15]
• “People think when they’re at the grocery store and a bag is costing like $90...that is a sign of your optimism in the economy.” — Ryan [64:32]
• “[The DCCC attacks] are just another classic example of DC elites and insiders who are completely out of touch…” — Randy Villegas [117:33]
• "You know how many people have asked me about trans athletes or any of these culture war issues? Zero." — Randy Villegas [126:33]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• U.S.–Iran–Lebanon Escalation & Peace Talks: [06:00–17:30]
• Lebanon, Drone Warfare & Humanitarian Crisis: [19:37–32:10]
• Prof. Robert Pape Interview (Negotiations, Oil, Escalation Trap): [36:18–58:59]
• Consumer Confidence/Economy Segment: [60:05–74:37]
• Texas Senate/National Election Roundup: [77:05–101:57]
• Maine/California DCCC–Progressives Dynamics: [104:36–115:34]
• Randy Villegas Interview: [115:41–128:54]

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Summary & Takeaways

This episode encapsulates the deeply interconnected crises and power struggles at home and abroad—from the U.S.-Iran escalation trap threatening to upend energy markets and the U.S. economy, to the rise of new military innovations (drones) altering classic battlegrounds, to the unraveling of establishment power within the GOP and Democratic parties.

The hosts highlight how public discontent with both parties’ establishments is fueling victories for more populist, sometimes controversial, outsider candidates. Economic realities—especially oil and gas prices—are emerging as the linchpin issues dominating the political landscape.

The episode’s interviews and banter reinforce a core Breaking Points theme: “anything but the status quo.” The disruption of traditional politics, volatile international crises, and everyday economic pain are driving a chaos that only bold, authentic, independent voices seem able to channel—whether for good or ill.

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For those who haven’t listened:
This episode offers a high-stakes, unvarnished look at global conflict diplomacy, domestic party divisions, and economic anxiety, mixing sharp analysis, dry satire, and firsthand reporting. Both policy wonks and headline-chasers will find plenty to chew on.

Transcript

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Yes, it'll little transition process but it'll be smooth sailing. So we appreciate it. Yes, thanks for sticking with us, everyone. All right, Ryan Netanyahu and Trump had a phone call yesterday. We're going to break down the details. Incursions further into Lebanon, no surprise there. But we have some drone footage that we need to show you guys. Robert Pape is going to be joining us to break down some of these latest developments as well. Interesting, actually, developments in Gaza that we're going to be talking about, man. One of Donald Trump's economic advisers, Kevin Hassett, you've seen him before, is got grilled actually by Maria Bartiromo on consumer sentiment plummeting. We have video of his response. We're going to talk about the elections, as mentioned earlier. Interesting, Ryan, with Graham Platner. We have a little bit of stuff to talk about with Auchincloss. We're going to have a guest in that block, somebody who's running in California as a Democrat to walk us through how those dynamics or what we can glean from those dynamics.

[B]

Yeah, we'll be talking to Randy Villegas who has the endorsement of basically the entire kind of progressive world, including like Bernie Sanders Progressive Caucus. All these running against the DCCC backed candidate Esme Baines. DCCC is trying to put its thumb on the scale in a bunch of races. And California is next week, which by

[A]

the way is what the NRSC did in Texas. And so we have those details about Paxton.

[B]

Not great effect, man. This race is already burn 80 million.

[A]

It's so much money. I thought it was. We'll look it up.

[B]

We'll look it up.

[A]

But it was. I mean that race is shaping up to be utterly insufferable. That's my take. But anyway, we'll have more on that. And Ryan, you have an interview that you're going to air on J Street.

[B]

Yes. Yesterday, after yesterday's show, Crystal and I sat down for an hour with Jeremy Ben Ami, the executive director of J Street, which describes itself as a quote, pro peace, pro Israel organization. And we talk to him about the kind of uncomfortable place he sits in with the Israeli ambassador recently calling them a cancer and on the left calling, you know, they frequently get called enablers of genocide, although even he now acknowledges what's happening as a genocide. So I found the conversation very interesting. I think people will too.

[A]

All right. Well, looking forward to it. Let's start with Trump and Netanyahu. We can throw this first element up on the screen. A1 it's a times of Israel headline. Netanyahu, Trump said talking after Security Cabinet meeting ends. So Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is speaking on the phone with US President Donald Trump, according to Hebrew media yesterday. They say in the Times of Israel. The reported call comes after the end of the security Cabinet meeting amid an intensified military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. We're going to talk more about that in just one moment. And as the US has reportedly barred Israel from striking Beirut so as to not sabotage the US Iran talks. Ryan. This also comes as yesterday A2 Iran was threatening retaliatory, retaliatory strikes after what the US said were defensive strikes. Help us, help us understand a bit about what we know regarding this Netanyahu Trump call and the timing in the middle of all of the, the uncertainty yesterday.

[B]

Yeah. And Israel, and we can talk about this more, has continued to strike Beirut despite Trump pushing him to what the Iranians are insisting that the war in Lebanon has to end as part of the, as part of this broader war. The Israelis are insisting it absolutely will not. The reporting out of Iran is that the US has effectively agreed. We'll talk about this more with Pape. To a lot of the Iranian red lines which Is that effectively they're not going to move the highly enriched uranium out of the country, but they'll kind of down blend it and destroy it instead. And that the US has told Iran we need time to manage. This is what Jeremy was reporting yesterday, that we need time to manage domestic, the domestic politics, which, good luck with that. It's going to be, it's going to be hard, it's going to be ugly. Does take some managing.

[A]

That's, that is really a reference to the Netanyahu supporters in the United States. So this is where the call comes in, right?

[B]

Yes, exactly. So Iran though is like, you know, skeptical as always of US Assurances, even though this is, this is what they're saying. And then into this comes what you just mentioned. You had the US Launch quote unquote, defensive strikes against some what Iran says were civilian vessels, what the US Says were some Iranian navy gunboats laying landmines.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And you would think that Iran has to be telling the truth here because according to Trump, the entire Iranian navy is at the bottom of the sea. So why are we attacking a navy that he has already destroyed their capacity? Unless it's possible that Trump wasn't telling the truth about that.

[A]

Yes. One thing these both time, I don't

[B]

even want to entertain that possibility, but

[A]

I know that would be some people

[B]

are saying that perhaps Trump exaggerated more

[A]

on the back and forth yesterday. This is again from the Times of Israel. Talks between the US And Iran on an initial agreement extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz will take several more days. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio yesterday as Tehran threatened retaliation overnight for US Strikes which he called a violation of the truce and a sign of quote, bad faith. The US Military characterized Monday night strikes in southern Iran as defensive to saying targets included missile launch sites and mine laying boats and said the U.S. acted with quote, restraint in light of the weeks long cease fire. Speaking to reporters after the strikes, Rubio said there's quote a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document. He says it'll take a few days and then added the straits need to be open unimpeded without tolls. Now Mark Levin, this is a post from yesterday. Let's put a 4 up on the screen here. He just writes looks like we may need a lot more quote unquote defensive strikes on Iran.

[B]

Ryan, it is funny to think of defensive getting used all the way to include even strikes like on Iranian soil. They also the US also hit some kind of positions along the Iranian coast of the Strait of Hormuz. Yes. Mark Levin, very excited. Do we put up a two yet?

[A]

Yeah, let's put a two.

[B]

So put up a two. So in response to these back and forth clashes, Iran is actually saying that they're going to respond more to this, that they feel like this was a significant enough breach of the ceasefire that doesn't actually exist because the ceasefire expired weeks ago. But they feel like it's a significant enough attack. They don't consider it to be defensive because that's absurd anyway, that they're going to retaliate. So whether that happens or not, well, we'll find out in the next hours, hours and days as the US Continues to hammer out what Rubio says, like you said, just words away. Just like they've got one sentence left that they need to work out and then once they do, that's gonna work out. Meanwhile, Lindsey Graham is absolutely losing his mind at the Pakistanis again.

[A]

Tell us more.

[B]

He's saying he doesn't trust the Pakistanis, the Pakistanis are hiding Iranian planes. He's basically calling them jihadists. And that in league with Pakistan, he previously attacked the Omanis who were the mediators, said those are biased mediators against them. He has attacked the Qataris as mediators in the past. The way that my colleague Maaz put it was that there was a way to kind of demobilize the American empire in a rational fashion, which the JCPOA was part of. It was an attempt to kind of put the region at some ease so that the US could back away from it and focus on other things and reach an agreement and normalization with the countries there. That didn't happen. So now they're at the phase of just shouting at the referees. And it's kind of comical to think from the US Perspective that you're getting steamrolled by, I'm sorry, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar.

[A]

You can shout at the referees or you can escalate. I mean, those are the options right now, right?

[B]

Exactly.

[A]

That's like a deal or, or escalate or do shout out the referees and take a deal or escalate or escalate and shout out. Either way, they're going to be shouting at the referees. That sounds shouting accurate. I also wanted to ask you, Ryan, about this. Trump is now pushing for, I'm reading from Politico, quote, Muslim majority countries to join the Abraham Accords as he seeks an end to the Iran war. That is, quote, being met with laughter, dismissal and often silence. That's again, According to Politico, which writes it could endanger the prospects of a possible deal, but aren't taking the push seriously. Iran, for its part, is walking a tightrope of trying to get financial relief for its strained economy while also not ceding enough ground to give Trump a victory. They've also started restoring Internet access. As of yesterday, it looks like some significant Internet access.

[B]

Internet. Internet's back there. They're going to get to see those Lego videos. It's. Although they'll be in English, so most people won't understand them, but, you know, the cultural power of them pops through, I think, no matter what language you speak.

[A]

So what should we think of this Abraham Accords?

[B]

Yeah. So I make fun of Barack Ravid a lot, but he had a really fun little nugget in one of his pieces where Trump first was like, okay, guys, I'm reaching this peace deal. And he's got everybody. He had Turkey, he had Egypt, and then he had all the Gulf on the phone and like, okay, great. And then he's like, oh, and I need you all to sign the Abraham Accords.

[A]

Remember those.

[B]

In Ravid's characterization of it, it was just silence. And then you get that funny moment where Trump's like, you guys still there? You still there? They're like, yeah, we're here.

[A]

Did it break up?

[B]

We're here. And of course, Mohammed bin Zayed, he's like, great, uae, we're in. They're already in on that. But then everybody else is like, no, we're not doing that. Saudi Arabia put out a pretty clear statement saying, we have been 100% clear that we are not signing a peace agreement with Israel until the Palestinian issue has been resolved. That's been our position. That remains our position. So Trump, that would be a domestic

[A]

nightmare for them, I would imagine.

[B]

I guess. I mean, it's a dictatorship. They can manage.

[A]

I mean, spring was a lot.

[B]

Yeah, it would be a domestic problem for them, for sure. And it would be, you know, they consider themselves to be, you know, and they jockey for position as the kind of leaders of the kind of Muslim world. And, you know, they would be sacrificing that for sure. So the prestige that they generate from Mecca would be out the door. If you're, like, recognizing Israel without. While they're continuing to occupy Gaza. And they're now working this bill through the Knesset. It's an antiquities law that would basically put all of the west bank under their antiquities law. And they go around be like, oh, look, here's a coin with Hebrew on it. Like, this is all ours now out. So to recognize them while they're doing that is. Yeah, would. Is not possible. So it feels like Trump is grasping. I don't know who suggested that this was something worth even suggesting, because Jared maybe, I guess. But it's like Jared should know better. Like, that's not happening. It wasn't happening before. It's definitely not happening now. So you're just proposing it not to get it. But maybe the idea is like, I don't know, because you had a whole bunch of Trump's defenders being like, absolute genius move, boss. Like incredible. Like again, like art of the deal. It's like, well, he's not gonna get this, so he's just taking another public

[A]

L. Or he's playing 4D chess. The Ryan Grimm chess master who plays some of you on his chess. You can't quite follow.

[B]

No, he's too advanced.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And then there was some reporting that we were escorting ships to the Strait of Hormuz. Put an A3 and turns out not true. But the Iranians have said they actually have ushered about 25 ships through in the last 24 hours.

[A]

So, like, where is that reporting coming from? Who is telling people that? I actually. Because this keeps happening.

[B]

It does keep happening.

[A]

There's someone who keeps putting that.

[B]

Is it coming from the Pentagon?

[A]

That would be my assumption if people are reporting this, but it could be the White House.

[B]

Yeah, it is very strange. So reporters out there, like, check with the ships.

[A]

Good luck.

[B]

Don't just take the White House's word for any of the things related to the strait of her movie.

[A]

Or tell us that it's specifically coming

[B]

from the White House.

[A]

That would be helpful. Yeah.

[B]

Then we can be like, oh, okay, never mind, that's not true.

[D]

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[A]

Let's talk about Lebanon because a lot of news to break down out of Lebanon. We can go ahead now and roll B1. This is going to be a VO Ryan. Tell us what we're seeing on the screen. This is from Hezbollah. This is drones targeting the idf.

[B]

Yeah. So they've been releasing a lot of these videos almost on a daily basis. And so this is one where they're chasing an IDF troop convoy in southern Lebanon. In southern Lebanon. And these are these, these are these first person drones that have fiber optic cables connected to them. So in other words, they have up to like 25km of what looks like fishing line that connects them to a laptop which prevents them from being jammed and then allows these operators to then run through. Now this is this one here is a thermal drone, which is the first one that they released showing, you know, offensive drone activity at night. And if you notice in that clip.

[A]

So this is showing offensive drone activity from the idf?

[B]

No, that was Hezbollah.

[A]

You're saying that. Okay, but this is in southern Lebanon, right?

[B]

Yeah. I mean you can call it defensive, but they are actively taking the initiative here.

[A]

I see.

[B]

And if you noticed that soldier didn't appear to even hear it. You know, the IDF has its own drones going constantly. So you know, it may be that there's kind of too much noise going on or whatever and they're not very loud. But when they. What I'm. What I'm told by people who've experienced it, when they do dive, they make more noise.

[A]

Right.

[B]

They're quieter as they're floating. But then. But yeah, he didn't. That soldier didn't even seem to notice it.

[A]

Totally haunting videos. I mean, some of the videos that have come out of the battlefield and the Donbas just haunting the lack of noise, but also the terror that you see people like realizing at the last minute. Ryan, we have another element here. This is from electronic Intifada posted this. There's netting where this is the. The Israeli troops are in Southern hawk defense mechanism.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Right. So we'll roll it and then you can break it down for us.

[B]

Another innovation here. By these rays. Look at the netting dragged across the neighborhood here. This is their solution. But watch when this drone turns back and looks at the village, they basically just have this fishing net. Essentially. It's not even appropriate netting. They just draped it over the neighborhood as if drones fall like raindrops. I guess is that's the only way you're going to protect it. And because you can clearly see that you can just FL them. So I'm not sure what the Israeli plan is with these nettings, but this is, this is ridiculous what we're looking at here. Just draping it all across the neighborhood. So you know exactly where every Israeli troop is in there. This they think is a little more effective, except that the drone doesn't care that you have netting over top of your base. It's just going to fly under the netting and hit your vehicle. So there goes another Humvee. And the numbers here, they're not on Israel's side. So 140 FPV drones launched in this 30 day period of time that are taking out a vehicle for each one of them. And that's only 140 drones. They have thousands of these drones. It's changed the battlefield.

[A]

The argument was that because they're laying this netting, not only can the Hezbollah drones fly under the netting, but also it is telegraphing where they might fly.

[B]

Go find the giant blankets.

[A]

That's what we were looking at, basically.

[B]

Yeah, And John Elmer is the best in the business at this over at EI when it comes to kind of analyzing the tactics and the military equipment that the different sides are putting into the field. So this is blowing up, no pun intended, Israeli politics as well. You're having enormous. An enormous outpouring of criticism of Netanyahu and of the civilian leadership from the military, saying, you have put us into this position now in which we have no solutions and we are sitting ducks and we are being, you know, just slaughtered. You know, the IDF isn't used to losing one or two or more soldiers a day and setting aside the material losses of the tanks and the vehicles and the transport equipment. And on top of that, they're saying it has massively inhibited their ability to move throughout southern Lebanon. Ben GVIR has said that what they need to do is take down one residential building in Beirut for every drone that's launched, which is, you know, just pure terrorism. But, you know, wouldn't be the first time they took Ben Gvir's advice. They just. The Knesset just approves, I think, $700 million in funding for a kind of technological unit to study the problem and figure out ways better than, you know, fish netting or netting that they, you know, there are, like, people are throwing around all kinds of harebrained schemes. Like, the netting is like the rope dome, and so.

[A]

Except you can get under it.

[B]

Yeah. And in the uae, they're putting cages around, like, everything there's they've got. They're putting cages on tanks and trucks and other things. So, like, if the drone hits the cage, then at least it reduces the kind of blast impact that it has. There are some harebrained schemes of firing some type of cannon at a drone that would then somehow wrap around the fiber optic cable and snap it. Maz was telling me that, like, in Ukraine, you'll have soldiers actually, like, going into the field with scissors, trying to, like, finding the fishing line on the ground and snipping it. So we'll see what they come up with, their $700 million investment. But as of now, it has really transformed the battlefield in Lebanon. Meanwhile, they are. I don't know if we have the element for this, the Iran one. No, let's get back to that in a minute. That they launched an offensive outside of their security zone, outside of their kind of comfort zone in southern Lebanon, which has included an attack on this dam. And so this is scaring the heck out of everybody. This is the Karaoun Dam in the Beqaa valley. It produces 10 to 20% of electricity for Lebanon. But more than that, if it was destroyed, as you see it, getting bombed there, it would put tens of thousands of people at risk of getting washed away. It would just be an absolutely catastrophic humanitarian disaster. And here they are bombing this dam multiple times, just scaring the hell out of everybody. We put up B7 yesterday, Israel killed 31 people, 31 across Lebanon,

[A]

four children and three women, according to drop site here.

[B]

Yeah. And the number of medics and journalists killed continues to climb amid these attacks. It has really affected the way that rescuers can work because they know that if they go to a site of a bombing, they try to pull people out of the rubble, the chance that they're going to get hit increases almost to a guarantee. And in Gaza, we put up B6 yesterday, they killed 14.

[A]

And one of the strikes was near a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon. Right?

[B]

Yes, yes. So, yeah, there's. So there's B6. Some details from drop site on the 14 killed across Gaza yesterday. And in both Gaza and Lebanon, there technically ceasefires in place. Now, you may have seen we put up B5 here. Israel. Some of these people were killed when the new Hamas military chief, Muhammad Odeh, was targeted and killed. His funeral is today. So, like, it's been confirmed that he was killed. And Netanyahu and the Israeli government celebrated that they had, you know, killed this new commander after he'd taken power, taken office just after 11 days. And I think people who aren't totally immune to the way that these things unfold are like, hold on a second. You're. What did he do? You have a ceasefire that you signed with Hamas. Like, if you wanted a section in the ceasefire that said, we will agree to a ceasefire, except whenever we feel like it, we will attack you, then you should have tried to negotiate for that. There's just so little dignity and integrity in agreeing to a ceasefire deal. And then without even arguing that there's been any breach or you have any justification for doing it, just killing a military commander and his wife and everybody around him.

[A]

The Israelis are claiming he was the head of Hamas intelligence during October 7th.

[B]

Yeah, right.

[A]

But there's a ceasefire.

[D]

There's a ceasefire.

[A]

What I was also gonna say is that this is the goal of the war was to eradicate Hamas. Right. That's what Netanyahu said over and over again. I believe it's what Biden said over and over again. And we've been covering for, like, years now, the unlikeliness of actually eradicating Hamas. And I do think it's interesting that somebody who was the head of Hamas intelligence is alive, or was alive to lead, as Israel is claiming he did a renewing of the organizational structure. That's a quote from. That's according to a Saudi outlet now in 2026.

[B]

Right, right. And that the only way they can fight back against that is illegal assassinations that go against their own agreement, which they keep saying, like, ah, Hamas hasn't disarmed. Hamas didn't agree to disarm, and we covered this. So they're insisting on things including disarmament that were not agreed to. And then they are killing people despite the fact that they agreed to a ceasefire. They've killed more than 800 people since the ceasefire in October, which is. It's just like, what kind of. What kind of ceasefire is that?

[A]

This is a horribly morbid thing to even speculate about. I wonder if that's lower than would it otherwise be.

[B]

Oh, absolutely lower. You're killing 800 a week before that.

[A]

But it's still so grim to think about it in that sense.

[B]

Yes. And this. And maybe we should have had this in our own block, actually. But. Yes, but it's also an interesting kind of military innovation, so it does fit here. Just want to keep people up to date. You can put up this VO.

[A]

This.

[B]

This is B3. Iran finally released video of them getting a radar lock on an F35. And the US has spent like a trillion dollars or something on this F35. Yeah, F35 platform on the notion that you can't do what you're watching be done right there, which is get a radar lock on an F35.

[A]

Shot down a Reaper drone, too, didn't they?

[B]

And two of them. Yeah. Shot down two Reaper drones. They're like, you know, 100 million, 50 to 100 million bucks a piece or something like that.

[A]

Chump change.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. How many rural hospitals have closed in the last month?

[A]

What's great, 56.5 million for an MQ9 Reaper.

[B]

The number of. The amount of money that these rural hospitals close for a shortage of is heartbreaking. Like, one of those drones could keep a rural hospital open for, like, five more years and make it free.

[A]

So I think to bring this full circle, my last question for you, Ryan, is when we see this is obviously asymmetric warfare in southern Lebanon. The example from Iran, I think, underscores what's happening in southern Lebanon, or it underscores the level of threat or the lack of control that the IDF has right now in southern Lebanon and the difficulty of doing what they want to do there. How does this. Now we're talking about Abraham Accords, we're talking about Lebanon, we're talking about Iran. How does all of this go into the various negotiations that Trump and Rubio right now are trying to and Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are trying to hash out, not just with one country, another country, but apparently with the Arab world, because that's what it would take for them to achieve what they say their ends are. So if we're looking at this incursion into southern Lebanon, that's another huge piece on the chessboard that is barely getting attention from the president.

[B]

Yeah. And what did Ben GVIR say yesterday? That he will not allow that Netanyahu should not allow Trump to make a peace deal with Iran that includes a peace agreement in Lebanon. Israel shouldn't allow it. And Israel, unless the US does something about it, can just continue waging war on Lebanon. And so what that would be doing is asking Americans to continue to pay $5 a gallon for gas, to continue to have the global economic dislocation that we're suffering. Mortgage rates way up in the sixes. Also, Israel can continue to go to war with Lebanon. It's like, how is that. What, how is that our concern? Why should we be sacrificing for that? How about you withdraw from Lebanon and reach a peace agreement with your neighbors and gas and mortgage rates can go down? How about that?

[A]

It seems wildly unlikely.

[B]

I guess so, yeah.

[A]

Well, let's bring in Professor Robert Pape to help us understand where this could be going in the future. We'll be right back with Professor Pape.

[D]

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[A]

At TrueNatureMeats.com we are joined once again by Robert Pape. He is of course University of Chicago professor of Political Science. He directs the Chicago Project on Security and Threats and he's the author of Bombing to and writes the Substack the Escalation Trap has been many times on this show recently to discuss recent developments out of Iran. Professor Pape, thank you so much for joining us.

[C]

Thank you for having me.

[A]

Yeah, we were just talking before we went to air. You helped organize a great event last week at Busboys and Poets here in Washington, D.C. that people can go check out on YouTube. It's on the Busboys YouTube. It's full of really interesting perspectives from folks like Wajahat Ali. I did a panel with Joe Kent and Trita Parsi. So Professor Pape, it seems like a great success. You addressed the crowd. The crowd was loving it. They were very excited to see you in person. So that kind of bridging of the left and the right was an interesting experiment on foreign policy.

[C]

It was important in a lot of ways. So first of all, actually going from online to in person, very, very important to do and also to see the amazing reception. We had hundreds of people who were trying to get into those seats and it was just incredible to see that. And what that really shows is that there is a crying hunger for a better foreign policy. And that is true across the political spectrum. And that's something that's very, very important as we go forward. So there will, of course, be lots of things we're going to disagree on. This isn't about trying to get people to vote for the same candidate. That said, what we need to do is understand that there is a common understanding that our foreign policy here has simply been a disaster. And we were very unhappy before the Iran war. We're much more concerned now because it's touching our lives in a personal way. So this is now not just simply a principal issue or something to be five or six issues down the totem pole. This is a front and center issue that's going to affect people's jobs, people's livelihood, people's what they can eat, what they cannot eat. This is really, and it's happening because of a foreign policy decision. And that's what we really want to lean into going forward. And I hope that we'll have more events there. I'm going to have an event here in the city of Chicago and I'm going to try to do a number of these in person events where we bring people from across the political spectrum to talk about this need because as we're trying to, as we comment on all the details and I'm sure, sure we'll do that now, the fact of the matter is there's something bigger going on here and that bigger we need to move into and not just assume this will all somehow magically take care of itself once we just have a new round of elections. It's only been a few years since we got out of the last forever wars. And we're right back on the in another one. This is showing you we need more. And that big guardrail is actually us, the people.

[A]

Well, let's start with this post from Monday that you made and we can put this up on the screen. On the screen you said Trump just made a major concession on the nuclear issue. Words that move closer to Iran's position. Good for a deal. You were referring to this post on Truth Social where Trump said the enriched uranium nuclear dust will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or preferably in conjunction in coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or at another acceptable location with the Atomic Energy Commission or its equivalent being witness to this process event. And you said, but the US Military just attacked missile sites in Iran, daring the IRGC to respond. Bad for a deal with this chaos. Why should Iran believe Trump's promises? And obviously, we are still potentially waiting on a response from the irgc. So, as things stand right now, Professor Pape, help us to understand why. I mean, if you're, if you're Iran and you're looking at this, you're looking at Trump up conceding on the nuclear issue, then attacking missile sites in Iran, to them, do you think this all just seems totally fake and like posturing?

[C]

I think that it seems totally chaotic. If you're looking at this from Iran's perspective. And what you see if you're in Iran's shoes, is that President Trump is trying to essentially communicate with all these different audiences, including Iran here, and doing it on truth, social, and then, of course, with bombing, which is also communication. And these are not adding up in a way that is producing anything like stability here. So we need to understand that this is a situation where Iran is in the driver's seat. So this is chaos by Trump in a situation where it's the United States that has suffered a major strategic defeat in this war. And that is something that not just Iran believes, but other leaders believe. You hear, you see that President Trump himself is making concessions to Iran's position. So President Trump may not say it, but he understands that he's got to move to Iran's position. But at the same time, he is seeing that if he owns the L crystal, and you heard this on Friday night, that the big problem with the escalation trap is that as President Trump gets closer to owning the loss, then that puts enormous political pressure on him because it causes him to lose the current support he has or at least whittle it down further. So if you say he's got a solid lock on 30, 33% of the country, and you see that in the primaries, that can actually be whittled down because that 30 to 33% believes he's a winner. And if he goes to being a loser, then that is going to be a further drift down. And I think that's what is what you're seeing with President Trump. He knows he's in a losing position here. And as he tries to navigate the escalation trap to wiggle out of it, it keeps pulling him back in. And the truth is he needs to, I think, focus on a narrower set of issues. So what I maybe talk about this, but I think that this idea that he's just gonna photo around on all these different issues and find some way to get a W that he can claim here is just getting him deeper into the escalation trap. And look, if it was only his presidency, we could say, who cares? But the problem is, it's not just his presidency. This is impacting negatively, all of us listening to this. And by July 15, those inventories are running out, folks. So we're gonna hit a triple time bomb here where inventories are gonna run out, and this is just going to hurt even more in the coming weeks.

[B]

Yeah. And just so people understand the kind of concession that Trump was floating here, I'll just read it again. He says, you know, you either turn over the, quote, unquote, nuclear dust, dust to be brought home and destroyed, or preferably in conjunction in coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, which I notice he switches around the language that he uses when referring to Iran, depending on kind of his posture toward a deal at the moment. He says it would be the nuclear dust would, quote, be destroyed in place or at another acceptable location, which is another word for down, blending it, which

[C]

is exactly what Iran's position was on February 27th. So just, just what I mean by him moving to Iran is this was exactly the position that President Trump rejected on February 27th in that Oval Office discussion where he then chose to do the bombing the next day. And so what he's done in that post is he has given up the positions that he's had before, and he's effectively moved to Iran's position. And that would mean, to be clear, what Iran was saying is it would dilute what it had above 3.5%, so all of it would be 3.5% enriched, which also, to be clear, would gain a few extra months, and how quickly that material could be produced into a working nuclear weapon. So it doesn't solve the nuclear weapon issue. It is a way. This is why Iran wants that enriched uranium capability and keep 3.5%, because that would allow it within about a year or so, to then fashion somewhere between 10, 15 nuclear weapons with the current amount of material here, and that would mean it would rise to become the fourth center of world power as the oil hegemon in the Persian Gulf. So Trump was moving to that position. I've called that stage four, the escalation trap. And then the problem is, of course, as soon as he announced it here, then he's being attacked here politically. And these are people who are his supporters. So they are telling him, if you own the L, which is what he was saying he was going to do, then you're going to lose that next level of support. And Maybe no surprise we see bombing then a few hours, not too long after that. This is what I've been defining as literally the escalation trap, where it's not that there aren't, you know, words or deals you could talk about, but the politics of the trap is what pulls people to the trap. And that's what you saw right here. President Trump is having a hard time owning the l here, and that's what's keeping him in the trap. And I'm sorry to say, this can bounce back and forth, folks. If we keep to these set of terms, this can go back and forth for months. Even when we hit the wall in the middle of July, when we run out of inventory and those gas prices shoot up even higher here, we can bounce back and forth. That's why I'm suggesting we sort of narrow the ambitions here to try to find a way to squeak out of at least a piece of the trap.

[A]

Well, right now, as we're awaiting the IRGC's potential response to what the United States is calling these defensive strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, I wanted to get your take onprofessor Pape, your take on what we could expect to see from the IRGC on a kind of. Of technical level, what response is possible, just as we also then try to expect what we see in response to that response from the United States. Now, President Trump has said the Navy has been destroyed. Ryan pointed out earlier in our show that it doesn't make a ton of sense to say their navy has been destroyed, while at the same time say that they're laying landmines in the Strait of Hormuz. But they've said basically missile capacity has been severely damaged. We'll see. Professor Pape, what do you expect to come out of maybe the next 24 to 48 hours, if anything?

[C]

Well, I think that first of all, we need to see that there is a small possibility that Iran may decide to not give up a chance to react at all, but to do it in a more modest way. I don't think that's likely, but I don't think it's really quite off the table here because after all, Iran was moving Trump toward their position. So I think Iran probably saw that tweet where Trump is giving up up the resistance to their February 27th position, and they're saying actually President Trump is trying to surrender on their terms. So I think that this is something to not dismiss. That said, I think that what Iran has established since February 28 is that there would be some kind of a quid pro quo. And often, though, it's not directly a quid pro quo, the way we might understand it. So, remember, the attack against the UAE oil facility was a way that Iran thought about, and it wasn't a direct attack. It was sort of a near miss. It was kind of a brushback pitch to remind everybody that it could do more to damage the supply of oil to the world. And I think that's really what I'm more expecting here, because that's their leverage. Their leverage is very specifically now about the supply of oil to the world. And so I think that this would be completely within their strategic mindset right now. And so that's the most likely attack that I would see.

[B]

And so earlier in the conflict, you had said that the escalation trap was going to kind of inexorably push the US towards ground troops in Iran, other than that weird kind of weekend rescue of the two downed pilots, of which we've heard nothing since and haven't learned who the pilots were. There hasn't been. There haven't been American boots on the ground. Why do you think that was? And do you still think the escalation trap pulls in that direction?

[C]

So long as the nuclear issue remains front and center here? I think that the issue of US Ground forces to go in to get that enriched uranium remains there. The exact timing of that. So it's. I know the public wants escalation to be linear, that it wants it to be on a schedule here, but we need to recall that when I did the modeling, I started not with the modeling where we did a February 28th attack to change the regime. The modeling I've been doing for 20 years starts with the US bombing Fordeau in the nuclear facility and then saying about a year or two after that, we would do regime change bombing, which in fact happened, and then a period of time after that would be the limited ground operations here to get the nuclear material that dust that he calls not really dust, but. And I think that that's really still there. And you hear pressure from Netanyahu for that as well. So I realize the public wants things to be like a light switch. Either it's all escalation is all on, or it's not. But what you're really seeing is the way real war works. Real war are these long periods of boredom where costs are mounting, indirectly punctuated by very short bursts of essentially sheer terror. And that is unfortunately, what you're likely to see here. And I describe this as instability bouncing between the escalation track of military escalation, and then the allowing Iran to rise to become the fourth center of world power. And I don't really think you're going to be able to end that unless we. Again, I do think that there's an important thought here that I want to get across today, which is that I do think there's something that we should focus on in the negotiations. And if it's okay, I'd like to, because I just posted a big piece on this on Substack. I'd like to bring this up. So I think that it's not really going to be possible to end this escalation trap altogether. I think that's what everybody wants and I think that that's probably not right. However, I do think that there's something that the negotiations should be focusing on more and they're not, which is literally the price of oil. So right now we're seeing negotiations about a whole host of these zero sum issues here, whether Iran's going to have nuclear material or not, whether it's completely opening Hormuz or not. What matters to the public, what matters to that crowd at Busboys and Poets, though, are not all of these details which, which of course the experts like us will talk about here. But what really matters is the price of gas, what they're really paying. And I think that it would really behoove the Trump administration to cut to the chase about whether Iran is really willing to commit to returning the price of oil down to the pre war level. So you haven't heard that language yet. And I think it's important because I can well imagine we get a lot of sort of these MOUs and so forth, and then we discover that as months go by, the price of oil is still $90 or higher. And it's because Iran has lots of tools at its disposal here, including with the Houthis with proxies to find ways to keep that price and that risk premium high, even as some ships are passing. And so I think unless we focus like a laser on the issue that really matters right now to the world's economy, which is literally the price of oil here, I think that we're going to be sadly surprised when we find out that whatever deal might come is not actually that much of a deal, you see, because otherwise Iran will just simply continue to deal with all these details when the bottom line for most Americans is what's really happening to that price of oil. And I think that this should be the front and center issue as the negotiations go forward, which is call Iran out. Is Iran really willing to, to have the price of oil come back to the pre war levels of say the mid-60s for Brent and if not, why not? And that could actually be helpful over time because then you really could have a conversation here with China, with Russia, with the Europeans. Now you have something you're actually talking about that's concrete. And if we don't have that concrete issue, I think we're just going to be bouncing back and forth. There's too many big balls in the air all at the same time. And this is just a prescription for a dead negotiations.

[B]

And we have some breaking news here where Iran state TV is putting out what they're calling basically an unofficial framework that has been agreed to by both sides that they're continuing to hash out. The details are the US Military would withdraw from the vicinity of Iran. US Navy lifts its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran commits to restore the number of commercial transit ships through the strait to pre war levels within one month. Though it doesn't spec doesn't say anything about whether or not they'll be charging or tolling or what. Iranian state media says military vessels are not included in this draft agreement. The managing of the ship traffic would be handled in cooperation with Oman. Oman just today announced a lot of new kind of trade and financial agreements with Iran, kind of preparing for a post US world. So that fits with the idea that they would maybe continue charging tolls. And then number six, if a final deal is reached within 60 days, that would involve the nuclear dust and the other stuff, stuff, the agreement would be approved in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution. So that's what the Iran state TV is putting.

[C]

That's right. So that was in line with on Saturday I posted that was coming out from Iran's media actually. So I posted this on X. That's roughly the same and that's what I meant that those are have always been Iran's terms.

[B]

This is similar to what Jeremy Scahill reported Friday night.

[C]

Yeah, yeah. So this is exactly what I mean by those are Iran's terms. And what you see is President Trump is having to move to Iran's terms, which is effectively surrendering on Iran's terms, you see, and that includes the toll. So this would be Iran becoming the fourth center of world power. What I'm adding to that is that what's missing here is we're negotiating those six points is the actual issue that I'm putting my finger on, which is the price of oil here because you could end up with a situation where even with that deal, the price of oil does not remains near $90 a barrel, 20, 30% higher than it was before the war. Iran would have lots of reason to want that extra money. Russia would have reason to want that extra money even for a year. China might be willing to go along with that. So over the next year or two, this is the critical issue here. So what I would say to President Trump is that you could agree to all of those six points. But then I would point out that the real thing that needs to be focused on is getting the price of oil back to close to the pre war levels and as a commitment by Iran. So if for some unknown reason price of oil fluctuates, Houthis, for instance, decide to attack a pipeline, there will be an agreement that Iran will already understand. It has to make adjustments, allow Saudi Arabia, the uae to ship even more ships through the Persian Gulf than before the war, where the key goal is not exact number of ships. The key goal is the price of oil.

[B]

All right, Professor Pape, always a pleasure to have you here. Thank you so much for joining us.

[C]

Yeah, we're going to try to see if there's a way to wiggle out of this trap. I told you I'd be working on it. And there is a way to try to wiggle out of some of this.

[B]

Need a lot of oil.

[C]

Let's hope we can do it.

[B]

Take it easy.

[C]

Okay, bye bye.

[A]

Thank you.

[D]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers, growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, Completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment, recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures [e-mail] disclosure if you're feeling

[A]

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[B]

Oh, it'll be right away. And again, like the 300 nautical mile thing is the way you think about Europe and Asia and everything else. But in the US you know, we're basically self sufficient in energy. And the reason why that gas prices have been going up, for example, is that jet fuel prices are so high because of the disruption say in Singapore that our refiners have been turning the knobs towards jet fuel and away from gasoline a little bit. They can stop that pretty much as soon as the oil starts to land in Singapore. And so I think that we should see very quickly energy prices, gas prices go back to where they should be. And the thing that I've seen when I look at credit card data and other things that I can get for the private sector is that while people have been spending more money money at gas stations, they've been spending more money and everything on everything else, which means that they're still very, very optimistic about the state of the economy. And they should be. If you look at GDP now, right now it's north of 4% and so despite this disruption, all the momentum that we built with the big beautiful bill and AI and everything else is really, you know, what the main economic story of the US Is.

[A]

Television's Ryan Graham is cracking up next to me. But wait, there's more. Let's roll the next clip. Clip. Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight

[B]

month in the month of May.

[A]

It was at a record low of 44.8. The Iran conflict unnerving people, fueling some

[B]

worries about inflation, as higher costs and

[A]

elevated oil prices show up in people's pocketbook. What is the most important messaging that you can put out there for consumers to help sentiment here?

[B]

Well, the. They call it consumer sentiment, but I don't think those words mean what they think they mean anymore. We looked at the political affiliation of the people who were responding, and we found that, like at the peak of Biden's stagflation, with inflation running out of control, the Democrats in the survey had a sentiment index that was way above 100. Right now they're at 30 something. And then Republicans have stayed relatively steady throughout. But we find that basically, specifically the consumer sentiment indicator at the University of Michigan, it's just a political survey. And in fact, the correlation between what independents say and Democrats say is 0.8 or 0.9. It's almost exactly perfectly correlated. So what they've done is they've somehow devised a political survey that tells us how Democrats are feeling about things. If you want to look at how people are thinking, you should go to the conference board. Consumer confidence, that that's the consumer confidence measure is actually the most reliable thing. And right now it's the highest it's been in a year.

[A]

Right. Listen, the consumer is happy because the consumer is spending more. And also this survey that shows shifts over time, it's just reflecting Democrats shifting sentiments about the consumer from the perspective of the consumer over time, you know.

[B]

But then he also said that Democrats and independents had basically the same answer when it came to consumer sentiment.

[A]

Yeah. And so it's been going down with Republicans for a while, too.

[B]

But he says, well, so because Democrats and independents both are way down on the economy, we should not listen to either of them. For a gauge of reality, we should actually only look at the Republican sentiment score, which he didn't actually even mention. But if, as he said, Republican sentiment is kind of similar to what it was under Biden, Republicans were unhappy about the economy under Biden. So if they're still at the same level, that means Democrats and Independents are unhappy about the economy and Republicans are unhappy about the economy, but they're showing their optimism by spending more. So people think when they're at the grocery store and a bag is costing like $90, that is frustrating to them. No, in fact, that is a sign of your optimism in the economy.

[A]

Yeah, that was a bad one that

[B]

you're paying for that. So we appreciate the hope you have and the optimism in the American dream. What greater expression of the American dream could there be than a four in front of your grocery tab?

[A]

Well, he's talking about consumer confidence. Let's read from Axios. The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index fell 0.7 percentage point in May to 93.1. But it tick down to a level that is still above where it stood as recently as January. So it's going down. But he thinks just because it's slightly better than where it was in January, that is better than looking at what

[B]

is, what is the consumer confidence again, from that, from the, from the board,

[A]

they have it at 93.1, but it's down 0.7 month over month, still higher than where it was in January, which is apparently what Kevin Hassett is happy about. But let's also note, I mean, I'm reading from the Independent here. In April, for instance, the price for food eaten at home rose 2.9%, the highest over year inflation rate for the category since August of 2023. Food away from home also increased 3.6% over the last year. And 16% of Americans rate the country's current economic conditions as good or excellent. That is the lowest figure since 2023, according to Gallup. Among Republicans. The Independent goes on to cite an AP north poll taken recently. Approval of Trump's handling of the economy actually has fallen from 68% to 78%. I'm sorry, to 60. That's a pretty big drop for Republicans during a Republican presidency. Ryan.

[B]

Yeah. And I'm looking at the chart that he sent us to.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

Doesn't look like people are happy compared

[A]

to the Biden era.

[B]

Yeah. I mean, so they're slightly happier than a few months ago.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

But like they're back to where they were and they're under where they were in like 2021. Yeah, yeah.

[A]

Well.

[B]

And people were happy during the pandemic and Trump won. Look how people. Happy people were. And Trump won.

[A]

But I think that's.

[B]

I'll send this to the producer so we can put it up a little chart.

[A]

Yeah. So this is an important point though, because Republicans spent the Biden years making a very Actually a very reasonable argument that it was politically disastrous for Biden and then Kamala Harris to run on their economy when consumers didn't feel great about it, when consumers were upset about inflation. The Biden administration and then Kamala Harris were trying to say, your eyes are lying to you. Right? Don't believe what you think you see in the economy. Don't believe what you say you're feeling. Just believe us, things are good. That's a mistake that the Trump administration is making now as they try to stanch the bleeding from the midterms and offset problems from the Iran war, which they thought would be, I mean, they thought, Iran war aside, if that had never happened. They thought people were going to get their tax refunds in April and May and feel really good about the tax cut bill. And now most calculations show that the rise in gas prices because of the Iran war has offset the savings from the, quote, one big beautiful bill for the average American and gas prices. This is another clip we want to bring you from a CNN analyst. What is going to happen in gas prices even if there is a lasting ceasefire negotiated D3.

[B]

So how long is it going to be before we actually start to see some relief? Look at this. This is where we were before the war started. This is where we are right now.

[E]

There's a huge amount of time that

[A]

it's going to take according to the

[B]

futures market before we get back down to the that sub $70 an oil level. Look at this, 2032. So you want $3 gas again, you're going to have to wait maybe six years. And so what does that mean for everything? Look at this. Produce, clothing, airfare, gas, shipping. All of these rely on high gas

[A]

prices, high oil prices.

[B]

All of them are going to, to

[E]

continue to be more expensive as long as this lasts.

[A]

I'm sorry, did I hear you correctly? Did you say 2032?

[B]

Yeah. So if you look at this, this

[A]

tells you what the oil market is predicting prices will be in the future.

[B]

We don't get back down to this level until 2032.

[D]

That's the prediction.

[A]

Wall street correspondent Ryan Grim standing by now to react to these oil futures. What do we think? Is that a reliable metric of what we can expect to see?

[B]

I mean, we'll see. But like those high numbers are going to push an enormous amount of investment into clean energy. Ironically, because Trump, as one of his first acts, overturned the IRA and ripped out all of the government support. The previous kind of neoliberal approach to addressing climate change was to do a carbon tax which would increase the price of all carbon based fuels and oil gas. And that increase would then kind of pressure consumers and businesses to move into the clean energy market. Like that was the original approach. People rioted in the streets over it. And so policymakers were like, oh, actually making people's lives harder is not a popular political thing to do. And so our project is going to fail. Let's instead just do a lot of government investment and incentivizing into the clean energy industry. And then Trump ripped that apart. What Trump has done is gone back to the original carbon tax, what he described on the screen. There is a six year unrepealable carbon tax that was passed without going through Congress, without the President's signature and you cannot repeal it. So the carbon tax is here and it will have the policy effect of encouraging consumers to use less energy because they'll be broke to buy more energy efficient vehicles and other devices. And also for businesses to have some certainty to say, oh well, the price per kilowatt of electricity is this. I can actually jump in with my clean energy investment here. So Trump again, one of the greatest eco terrorists to have ever lived. The greatest, actually.

[A]

Thank him later.

[B]

One of the greatest. Like he's in a league of his own. There was that book how to blow up a pipeline.

[A]

Just elect Trump.

[B]

He blew up them all. He didn't just do one pipeline.

[A]

Yeah, well, okay, so. So on that point, Ryan, what are some of the reasons that it's going to take a long time actually even just as we're talking here, US oil falls below $89 and report Iran agreement would restore Hormuz traffic in one month. That's literally the headline on CNBC right now as I'm reading from a headline we're about to talk about. Why is it that it's kind of like turning the Titanic around to restore gas prices to where they were?

[B]

Well, this, it's been the greatest disruption of the oil market in the history of, since the Industrial Revolution.

[A]

And the technical aspects of getting refineries back up like in the Middle east

[B]

and the depth strategic reserves are like, have been burned through pretty significantly.

[A]

Huge criticism of Joe Biden, by the way, from Republicans.

[B]

And then Trump has been releasing them like crazy. The Asian markets have been pouring out their strategic reserves reserves. China has been keeping its domestic and so the amount of dislocation is more than we're feeling at the pump. Like we're seeing a slight increase, but we're not feeling the depth of the shortage that is out there. So you have to fill that. And we blew up a whole. We and Iran blew up a bunch of oil and gas infrastructure throughout the region that produces oil and gas. Meanwhile, Ukraine has destroyed what, like 40% of Russia's oil and gas infrastructure and it's blown up its export capacity in the Black Sea. These things in the physical world matter. We're also seeing it reflected in D4. One way that Americans put more money in their pockets is as they get more equity in their home. They refinance and pull a little money out. Gives you some breathing room. Demand for refinancing dropped 18%, according to CNBC, as mortgage rates hit their highest level since August. If you look at January, and my wife's a realtor, so we track this pretty closely. Like things were January, February, like things were finally starting to calm down. And like rates were, rates were pushing to five, like high fours, like, like that was about to like uncork the real estate market. And we're now back to well over six. And so it's, and it's frozen again.

[A]

Things are tough. And Republicans are in an even tougher position having to pretend they're not tough if that's what they choose to do because they have to defend an unpopular war as people are telling them. It's showing up in just about every, like pretty much every single poll that they're unhappy with the state of the economy. This is obviously true. And again, during the Biden administration, Republicans had a political advantage in saying Democrats are downplaying what you say you feel and what you're experiencing. And so they're now finding themselves in the exact same position.

[B]

Yes, indeed.

[A]

All right, well, Ryan, let's bring in our guest or I'm sorry, let's talk a little bit more about elections. Then we're gonna bring in our guests to talk about some elections as well. So some really interesting stuff happening around the country. We'll be right back.

[D]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers, growing revenue over over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S P500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures if you're feeling

[A]

off fatigue, mood changes, skin shifts, yet your labs say everything's normal. You're not alone. Meet Oestra from Inner Balance, the first all in one prescription strength bioidentical hormone cream that's natural and effective and only takes one drop 10 seconds a day. Oestra replaces five to six products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third party tested to ensure the highest quality. Visit innerbalance.com today to start feeling like yourself again. That's innerbalance.com craving bold, authentic taste without kitchen chaos, true nature meets Japanese Teriyaki style.

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code [e-mail] well, some historic results in Texas Senate primary last night. The campaign between James Talarico and Ken Paxton is already on. We're gonna bring you some of how both campaigns are already going after each other. But first, E1 let's just marinate for a moment on what happened to John Cornyn, a multi term incumbent, a very establishment Republican, very, very neoconservative and hawkish. He got absolutely blown out by Attorney General, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was endorsed at the last moment by Donald Trump. He would have won without the endorsement in all likelihood. Trump right now is also already offering some kind words for John Cornyn, saying that he's his friend, I think is what he said. He's still his friend, but the results here were really, really interesting and it's setting up what could be a competitive race for Democrats. We'll talk about that in just one moment. But let's start here with with this clip of Fox News. This is Bill Hammer explaining Trump has already, you'll be shocked to know, posted screenshots from the segment on Truth Social, because Bill Hemmer is walking through Trump's track record of endorsements in the 2026 primaries. And we talked about Massie, we've talked about that Massey race a lot. We talked about it last week when it happened. We've talked about Bill Cassidy. Let's zoom out and look at, at exactly how successful Trump has been in 2026.

[B]

This is his scorecard, okay? He has endorsed eight governors. Now, some of these races weren't real close, didn't have a lot of competition,

[A]

but some of them did.

[B]

I mean, we saw what happened in Louisiana, the primary with Bill Cassidy. We saw what happened a week ago tonight with Tom Massie in Kentucky. And now we're seeing it again tonight. Okay. In Texas, governor level, Trump endorsed eight. He won eight times. U.S. house 101 endorsed. He won. Yeah, sorry. 101 endorsed in the House and he won 101. Let me put on the pencil right here and show you this. U.S. senate, Sean. He has endorsed eight candidates. And prior to tonight he had won eight times. And now you can take the endorsement. From eight to nine, endorsed. And from eight to nine winner Ken Paxton was outspent nine to one, got the endorsement from Trump, got the endorsement of Wesley Hunt, the congressman who got knocked out two and a half months ago. And now we got the setup in Tax in Telarico. Many Republicans felt if John Cornyn could win tonight, that he could be an easy winner over Telarico. We'll never know that now. And a lot of Republicans felt that they could save a lot of money too, if Cornyn won. But that did not happen. Here's what will happen, Sean. And November in Texas, probably the most expensive Senate race that we have seen ever.

[A]

So Trump posted that on Truth Social by saying thank you to America for. What is this? Let me read it exactly. Thank you, America, for this unprecedented support. President DJT now, he also said we'll explain a little bit why in again, just a moment. He congratulated John Cornyn for having run a strong and powerful race. Just keep that in your mind. We're going to watch now how candidates Paxton, Cornyn and then Talarico responded to these results last night, which again were an absolute blowout.

[B]

My opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated. He's even running a vegan campaign, whatever that is. He goes by a few names that

[A]

you may all have heard of of.

[B]

Some people know him as Tofu Talarico. Some people call him six gender Jimmy. I've even heard Some people call him James Talafrico, and others refer to him simply as Low T. Talarico.

[C]

I've spent most of my time in the Senate, building the Republican Party in Texas and in the U.S. senate, and

[B]

I've always supported the Republican ticket, and

[C]

I intend to do so again in this general election. I've said throughout this race that I trust the voters of Texas and they've made their decision.

[B]

Ken Paxton embodies everything that's wrong with our political system. He was impeached by his own party for using his public office to enrich himself and his donors at our expense. And that kind of corruption is the rot at the core of this broken system. It's why we can't afford anything. It's why we can't get ahead no matter how hard we work. Because billionaires buy these politicians like Ken Paxton, and then these puppet politicians turn around and rig the rules of the game in favor of the billionaires at our expense. And so this has been happening for 50 years in this country. Mega donors and their puppet politicians have been stealing from the American people, from the people of Texas, stealing the wealth that we created through their bribes, their bailouts and their billionaire tax breaks. And so I look forward to not only running against Ken Paxton, but running against the broken system that he embodies.

[A]

Now, this is an almost 30 point blowout right now, as the results are, as the results stand. We're talking Paxton margins in the 60s, cornyn margins, 36.3%. Paxton right now, 63.7%. Last I checked, Cornyn had actually barely won Dallas, which is shocking. But I mean, it's not shocking, but it's shocking if you're John Cornyn. A couple of points that Taniel made on X. He said as a couple of weeks ago, no U.S. senator had lost reelection in a primary since 2012. Now GOP voters have ousted two senators in over 10 days. Days. Over 10 days. Cassidy in Louisiana and Cornyn in Texas. Taniel added Cornyn is on track to suffer the largest defeat for a US senator in a primary since 1978. And in that 1978, that was a Democratic primary in Montana won by Max Baucus. The defeated incumbent had just been appointed. Nothing like the longtime Cornyn. Seth Keshel on X. Also added the Paxton margins in El Paso. Hidalgo, Harris and most of the Rio Grande Valley are outrunning his overall statewide margin and are highly suggested that a MAGA candidate retains high Latino support and trends in line with trends developing over the past six years. That's a pretty interesting point, actually, and we'll see how much that stands, but at least some evidence here. And Ryan, there's so much more we could talk about the dynamics between Paxton and Talarico. I'm sorry, Paxton and Cornyn. Very interesting. Paxton has a colorful history, to say the least. I do want to put E4 up on the screen. This is the Heritage Action scorecard of John Cornyn. A score of 35% in this most late in this latest session. That is basically just a barometer. His lifetime score is 68%. Pretty low. That's just a barometer of how often he is voting with the kind of grassroots. Heritage Action isn't the same as the Heritage Foundation. It's obviously part of the Heritage foundation, but it scores on largely a lot of grassroots votes that senators are taking to be in line with the base. The NRSC came in for Cornyn, they came in for Cassidy. National Republicans put their support behind Cornyn's. They thought he was more electable. So let me just stop with this info dump and get your reaction to this blowout for Paxton. Yeah.

[B]

Cornyn, he is a very talented politician. He's like kind of like he's an oil guy. He came out of the kind of legal, Texas legal world, which is its own kind of mafia, country club Republican type.

[A]

Yes. And very hawkish on Iran, Very hawkish on Ukraine.

[B]

He's a lot of his country club Republican. Yeah, yeah.

[A]

His Heritage score, I was looking at some of it was his ongoing support for the war in Ukraine, which was being scored as a negative.

[B]

Yeah. That would track. And, you know, number two in the Senate for a stretch, nearly became majority or minority leader just a year ago to see him get, you know, he beat Paxton in the first round by like seven points or something like that.

[A]

Yeah. It was split with Colin Allred. It was a three way race and

[B]

it looked like like Trump might endorse Cornyn and push Paxton out. And Paxton was like, I'm staying in no matter what Trump does. And then Trump had this crazy thing like, hey, if you pass this, like, you know, the SAFE act, the voting reform he wants.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

That he would endorse Cornyn.

[A]

Yeah. He said he would drop out of the race.

[B]

Yeah. And. Or yes. That Paxton would drop out of the race. And that really worked on Trump because Trump was like, yeah, do that.

[A]

Well, it worked on voters too, because I think what people see and John Cornyn is this guy who's been in the Senate for the sake of power. Right. And he doesn't really care about what they care about. And Paxton doing that endears himself to Texas Republican voters. If you're voting in the Republican primary in Texas, you are probably somebody who cares about the SAVE Act. And here you have somebody who appears to be, I mean, it's obviously a campaign move, but he appears to be sort of selflessly putting his own campaign on the line to get something that they care about passed. And, and it's very interesting with Paxton because there's a. I always cite the Thomas Massie, craziest son of a bitch in the race line. That's what Paxton is seen as. People don't love Ken Paxton, but the nrc, for example, has been already. They're already embracing Paxton, of course, but they were running against Paxton on a very personal level. I'm looking right here at a July 10, 2025 rapid response release from NRSC giving some background on Ken Paxton, who they said, quote, put his family through. What he's put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting. No one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has. And we pray for her as she chooses to stand up for herself and her family during this difficult time. They said yes, they've scrubbed a lot of this from their websites. I went and checked this post yesterday because this guy's from American Bridge. Accurate. They are scrubbing from their website. They're to attached attacks on Paxton. So nrc, for example, said Angela Paxton's divorce petition accuses Ken Paxton of adultery and says the couple stopped living together in June 2024. Paxton's former chief of staff testified that Paxton confessed to her and other staff members he was having an affair with his mistress. Impeachment articles in the Texas Legislature alleged Paxton used the alias Dave P for a fake Uber account he used to secretly see his mistress. Paxton was also accused of using secret emails and burner phones to try and cover his trip tracks. Paxton allegedly used his pal Nate Paul, who was recently convicted of bank fraud, to help hide his affair and provide his mistress with an employment with employment in Austin so that Paxton could be closer to her. 20 articles of impeachment were filed against Paxton in the Texas legislature over alleged bribery, abuse of power, obstruction of justice. Paxton was indicted on security fraud charges that were later dropped after he paid $300,000 in restitution and completed community service. He's got a mug shot. And finally, from the nrc, Paxton refused to disclose multiple out of state properties in his 2023 financial disclosure, including $1.6 million luxury. Million dollar luxury hideaway. Okay, so this is What James Talarico now has to work with. To be clear, he would have had a whole lot to work with with John Cornyn. There's absolutely no question about that. John Cornyn is so pro war. So, so very pro war. He had has all kinds of things that are problematic with Republican voters, but also probably with. So Ryan Talarico is now already trying to make. Is trying to make amends with Cornyn voters. He said last night, you have a place in our campaign. This is the Senate map. This was updated last night. Texas now lean are not likely R and Ryan. We have some polls from around the country that show, I mean, how seriously the Senate is in jeopardy for Republicans. There's a lot of time left in this race. Iran worketh and things could change. We talked earlier in the show about how hard it is to turn the ship around, but there's just no question that this puts Texas in play. I would still say it's one of the least likely to flip, but it's definitely in play.

[B]

And they have to flip, what, four seats because they're down three. They have to take J.D. vance out of the, out of that catbird seat. I still find it hard to believe that Democrats are going to win Texas, but good Lord, if Democrats were ever going to win Texas, this like, this would kind of be the way to do it. Now, Talarico may have, you know, too much kind of 2020 era woke funny stuff that they can hit him with.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Because Talarico's big thing is I'm going to win independents and some Republicans. But then when they see his, like, past stuff vegan and like yesterday he's like, I eat barbecue. I've been eating barbecue for six generations. But then there's the clip. We did a vegan campaign. So like. And that's to work on some Texans. Yeah, absolutely.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

The mask isn't going to help, even though that was, you know, during the time people are masked up. But not most people in Texas. A lot of people in Texas were not. But we'll see.

[A]

This will be a tough one for him.

[B]

So. Yeah. So. And while two Senate Republicans have been beaten, I would even put the number at at three because Thom Tillis, the North Carolina center, was, you know, forced to basically retire as a result. So we could put up E10. This is North Carolina polls. The latest poll has Roy Cooper up by 11 in North Carolina making is maybe the most likely flip that Democrats have. And then Maine being this maybe the second, second most likely opportunity. But interestingly, Alaska, which you saw on that map was leaning Republican. New poll, we can put up E9 here. Mary Peltola, very popular former member of Congress. She's not in Congress anymore. Right. Is she still in Congress? Anyway, she's running for Senate and. And she. Remember, she won her Alaska.

[A]

Oh, yeah. She's been out since 25.

[B]

Yeah. She won her Alaska House race as a pro fish candidate, which I kind of love.

[A]

You're a former fishing guide.

[B]

Yeah, I love. I'm pro fish.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Although killed a lot of them.

[A]

So not catch and release. Some hypocrisy in Ryan Grimm's boat.

[B]

Some hypocrisy there. Plenty catch and release, too. But. So new poll has her. Her up 48, 44.

[A]

That's margin of error. I think Alaska pulling's hard, but.

[B]

Yeah, but so, you know, certainly in. In the race Ohio, we can put up E11. Sherrod Brown, very popular Democrat in Ohio. E11, though, has him. He's been up in a couple of polls, down and down in most of them. Ohio might be just too Republican to overcome, even despite this, despite the blue wave that we're likely to see. And Brown is getting older. He's not the same guy. Not the same campaigner that he used to be. And then, of course, there's E12, which is in Nebraska. A fascinating poll came out in that race showing that if Pete Ricketts, the Republican, was put up against the. The Democratic nominee, he'd win by something like 16 points. But he was down 5 or so to Osborne, 5 or 6 to Osborne. And the Democratic nominee has dropped out and endorsed Osborne. Interestingly, that Democratic nominee, Cindy, she hasn't dropped.

[A]

She said she's going to drop out.

[B]

She just endorsed the. The independent candidate in Nebraska won. Austin Allman, who was my old intern. No way. At the Intercept, he launched. But in that there is a Democratic candidate. And so Austin did this differently. Osborne was always the independent candidate. And Democrats were like, all right, we can't beat Riggins, we're just gonna give up.

[A]

Yeah. Well, and Osborne always had support from. What's the same people backing Platner. Right. Some of the same consultants. Fight.

[B]

Yeah. The consultancy is called Fight.

[A]

Populist left. But Osborne himself is not a leftist.

[B]

Right.

[A]

It would be fair to say he

[B]

has some heterodox positions, for sure.

[A]

Yeah. But I actually think that's. I mean, a sign of Democrats. Understand. Not Democrats, but some in the consultant class starting to understand a bit more how to knock down Republicans like Pete Ricketts.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And it's the same Thing with Republicans like Susan Collins, there's almost like a maturity to it. I don't want to sound like patronizing, but there was so much just inability to overcome some of these, like, cultural gaps between a guy like Dan Osborne, who might be literally working on the factory floor, was Kellogg's right. And has just different cultural opinions than most elite Democrats and most leftists, frankly. There was a lack of like, ability or willingness to overcome some of those, like to build some of those bridges. And now I think, I think that's kind of been out the window or at least in some of these races they're realizing, hey, there's a better way or.

[B]

Yeah, they're like, you know, we have zero chance, so what do we have to lose?

[A]

Right. He's kind of the economic leftism and cultural centrism or like center right ism. And it's reflective, I think, where a lot of Americans are right now, especially in states with heavy rural areas and big, like, agricultural interests and that sort of thing. So. So it's really. That is. I think this is one of the most interesting races to watch. I definitely want to do a Nebraska trip as we continue covering this race.

[B]

Our guy Julian was just out there.

[A]

Yeah, I saw, I saw

[B]

a couple other Texas races.

[A]

Yeah, I was going to ask Al Green.

[B]

Yeah. So put up E7. Longtime anti Zionist, among other things, Democrat Al Green faced a challenger who had a. A bunch of crypto money and had the support of pro Israel lobby and was beaten fairly handily. Al Green, a very eccentric kind of,

[A]

to say the least, was like waving his cane at Trump during the State of the Union.

[B]

I saw somebody pointing out that there were five. So when Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced her ban on weapons amendment to ban weapon sales to Israel, five people voted for it. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Al Green, Thomas Massie.

[A]

Yep.

[B]

Summer Lee and one other. Who was the other one?

[A]

You're like Rick Perry, Right.

[B]

Maybe. Or Ilhan Omar.

[A]

Yeah, that sounds right.

[C]

And

[B]

Marjorie Taylor Greene, Al Green and Thomas Massie gone. Summer Lee. I guess the good news out of that summerlee played a huge role in electing Chris Raab in Philadelphia. Who would add to that vote total. I guess Talib and Omar didn't both vote for him. I'm going to look that one up. So the New York Times portrayed it as this generational divide, like Al Green's old, the APAC person's young. I think there's something more going on than just age in this one.

[A]

And then Jasmine Crockett came in for Christian Menefee.

[B]

Do we have that.

[A]

Al Green's opponent. I don't think we have the video, but Jasmine Crockett cut an ad for

[B]

Menifee for the crypto groups, which is

[A]

amazing because one of the big criticisms of Crockett in the Talarico primary was that she was a crypto congresswoman.

[B]

Crypto spent like 5 million I think in this race or something. Insane amount of money.

[A]

He's one of the. Yeah. And they're doing that with certain things.

[B]

It's fake money. They have like endless fake money money.

[A]

So they're like, yeah, it's a little Sam Bankman 3D.

[B]

Yeah. Let's get this crypto critic out of here.

[A]

Maureen Galindo, E8 I don't know that we covered our Krishna saga. Covered the story. It was so bizarre. She was saying weird things about wanting to put Zionists in concentration camps. Concentration camps. Weird, weird candidate. Some strange last minute money came into this race.

[B]

From Republicans.

[A]

Yeah, from Republicans. So she lost.

[B]

Trying to boost her. She lost by about 20 points points to Johnny Garcia. So Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief. They did not want to see her sneak into the general election.

[A]

And leftists started to pay attention. I saw Hassan was coming out against Galindo and other Hassan piker and other people.

[B]

Yeah. Really? Concentration camps.

[A]

Yep.

[B]

Get out of here with this. Yeah.

[A]

We should also mention chip roy.e6 just to again come full circle with what we were talking about, about in regards to Trump endorsements. Chip Roy is one of the most. People are going to get angry at me for saying this spiritually maga, Republicans in Congress. Because Chip Roy is sort of like a Mike Lee. He was Ted Cruz's chief of staff actually here in D.C. but he lost his primary for a Texas attorney general. You can see his voters supported him like in his district. That's what the map shows on the screen. But he lost pretty, pretty by a healthy margin to a MAGA backed candidate. Because Chip Roy did come out against Trump a couple of times, like occasionally, I think is how Politico described it. But in ways that made people in the MAGA base feel like he didn't. He wasn't listening to them. He was giving them the middle finger. He didn't care about them. And that is, I mean MAGA is extremely sensitive to that. And just to be charitable for one moment, the reason MAGA has some of these litmus tests, tests, just think pragmatically, is because in Trump's first term there were people who were genuinely like trying to subvert his quote, agenda, including his Chiefs of staff like John Kelly, who turned out to be disloyal. Very disloyal, as Trump would say. And so that's actually why MAGA goes along with Trump on some of these litmus tests. Even if Thomas Massie and Chip Roy are kind of, kind of more MAGA than Trump sometimes, which is a misnomer because Trump is maga, but are sort of more down the line in line with economic. Not economic, but with kind of right wing populism, how it's defined. Chip Roy is, you know, he's gotten, I think I saw AIPAC tracker, like $17,000 from AIPAC over time. But he's also gone against the Republican establishment on a lot of war questions, a lot of spending questions. He's a fiscal hawk. He was like the last remaining member of the Freedom Caucus. That kind of represents what the Freedom Comes Caucus used to be. It's just.

[B]

He's out.

[A]

He's out. He couldn't even make it through the primary.

[B]

Is it all Trump?

[A]

Just pure Trump?

[B]

A little bit of criticism of Trump and that's it for him?

[A]

Yeah, I think that's really all it was because it feels like you might be someone that can't be trusted. And this is, again, I'm just, I actually have always admired Chip Roy because he's one of those people who's very principled. Like, he's not going against some of the people you believe. One of the very few people, people you believe. He believes what he's saying. So you can disagree with him, but you're not doubting that Chip Roy believes what he says he believes and then he votes as he believes, like on spending and those sorts of things. And so he's Massey, like in that sense, but more conservative and less libertarian. So it's. When you criticize Trump, people say, all right, then you are going to undermine that. You might undermine the Trump agenda. And I'm not taking that risk anymore. Because they believe the left has gotten to a point where they want to subvert the left at every single will, stop with every breath. And they don't want someone who might be siding against Trump. It feels like that means they're siding against them. And people take it really personally. So that's what's going on in maga. I don't agree with a lot of it, obviously.

[B]

I just said, how are MAGA voters gonna figure out what to think when Trump stops telling them what to think?

[A]

He will not stop telling them what to think. He will do it from beyond the grave.

[B]

There will be Trump like Lenin like reading through.

[A]

Exactly. Yeah, they will go. Trump will be entombed like Lenin and

[B]

people he has said everything so but so anybody who wants to cite Trump will be able to cite him.

[A]

Yeah, that's true. Also there will be Trump GPT.

[B]

You just just wait.

[A]

It'll it'll tell us. All right, that was a long block, but there were so many interesting races last night, both on the left and the right. But I think it's as fair to say Trump's 100% record Senate House primaries right now tells you where the biggest

[B]

and we ironically don't do enough kind of election content here. So we're going to make sure you get more than your fill today. Let's move on to an interesting race in California that pit the DCCC against the progressive populist world and Graham Platner getting hit by the Democratic establishment.

[D]

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[B]

in just a moment, we're gonna be joined by Randy Villegas, who is a Democratic congressional candidate in California trying to flip a red seat. He's opposed by the DCCC in that race, but is actually pulling a little bit ahead. He has the backing of the Working Families Party, Bernie Sanders, AOC Progressive Caucus. And so it's a real establishment kind of outsider contest, the same kind of contest we saw in Maine between Graham Platner and Janet Mills, which we all saw how that one ended with Mills suspending her campaign and Platner cruising to victory. But some in Washington are not yet willing to take the L. One of those is Jake Auchincloss, who represents a very blue district in Massachusetts. The idea of that somebody from Massachusetts is going to have influence in Maine without moving there is a little bit comical in its own right. There was one cycle he didn't even have an opponent, but apparently he has thoughts on how to flip a red Senate seat. So here is Auchincloss getting himself in a little bit of trouble with some elements of the Democratic Party.

[C]

Find that tattoo and his commentary about

[B]

it to be personally disqualifying. I hope main voters agree with me. I think there would be a mistake for the Democratic Party to think that Graham Platner's brand of the Democratic Party is what wins us durable majorities throughout this country. Wow. Massachusetts Congressman Jake Auchincloss, thank you so much for being with us. And so he, the day, the next day yesterday, he cleaned up some of these, some of those comments and said that. But, you know, if Graham Platner does eventually win the Democratic primary, which he hopes he won't, then he will oppose Susan Collins. But he kind of didn't really come out and say that he would support Platner. You also then had a couple of other Democratic officials kind of agreeing with him. Let's roll F2 here. This is a Biden administration official.

[A]

Are his past comments disqualifying for Democrats? And if they're not, should they be? Well, I agree with Congressman Jake Auchincloss, and he runs a Dem majority pac, so he spends a lot of his time not only representing his district, but also crisscrossing the country talking to local Democratic coalitions. And so he knows what will get people elected in the Democratic Party. And he's also a Jewish man. So I don't think there's anybody in the Democratic Party who should feel pressure to support Graham Platner. I certainly don't. And just because Senator Elizabeth Warren says that, that that's her kind of man, doesn't mean that has to apply to everybody. My kind of senators are the ones that come from Georgia, Senator Ossoff and Warnock, and they have different principles and values than Graham Platner. So I think that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will just have to carry that themselves.

[B]

So vote blue, no matter who. Unless it's somebody you don't like. Another one, Melissa DeRosa, who is a former chief of staff to Andrew Cuomo, famous for many things or infamous for many things, among them leading a smear campaign against Cuomo's sexual harassment, harassment victims. She believes that her ethical compass does not point towards supporting platner. Let's roll F3 here.

[A]

No, absolutely.

[B]

I mean, the Maine race really demonstrates the civil war that's happening within the Democratic Party.

[A]

And there are a lot of Democrats, moderate Democrats like myself, who will not cry tears should we lose Maine.

[B]

I mean, that would be a pickup to begin with. Emily, first of all, as Ben Dreyfus pointed out on Twitter, or cry tears. What else do you cry? She's not gonna cry tears.

[A]

Tears of blood.

[B]

Cry. She's gonna cry blood.

[A]

She's gonna cry.

[B]

Yes. So the Republicans have done, as Dave Weigel pointed out, a pretty good job of, like, ginning up articles about, like, new Reddit posts that they've found and setting like, oh, Democrats are in disarray,

[A]

and this is just to be.

[B]

And so Auchincloss, DeRosa and the former Biden administration official, what's her name?

[A]

Yamisi Agabawale. I believe

[B]

they kind of feed into this idea. But I think, and I'm curious for your take on this, I think they are all doing advertisements for Platner 100%. A Massachusetts, a smug Massachusetts guy doesn't support the main candidate. A Biden administration official doesn't support the main candidate. And Cuomo's chief of staff on Fox News, on Fox News, people say, judge me by my enemies. I feel like if you're an Independent or even a Republican, if you're a Democrat in Maine, you're already locked in on Platner. If you're an independent Republican and you're seeing that these party hacks are against Platner. Yeah, to me that's like, that actually helps Platner because a real risk for him is if he gets lumped as just, actually just some standard Democrat.

[A]

Yeah. And I think it's going to depend on how much the Democratic primary dynamic between Platner and Mills translates into the full state dynamic. And my guess is that it'll actually be somewhat similar because Susan Collins is such a, she's such a, like, avatar of the D.C. political establishment in so many ways. Now she has the good flip side of that coin in that she can convince people whole it's all for their benefit that she has been, you know, she's genial, she's been in the Senate and has been able to bring things back to them, back to Maine, which is not something that every establishment hack actually can do. Like, this was a huge problem for John Cornyn. People just felt like, no, I don't even think that you give a damn about me. Susan Collins is a little bit, I think as a talented retail politician, a little bit more capable of making that case to people. But I agree with you completely that it's advertising for Platner because Platner is not trying to act like he's some third weight candidate at all. He's doing the Ronald Reagan bold colors, not pale pastels test. That's what he's putting into this campaign, is that I am unvarnished and I detest the establishment. They are lying, they are bad. He's not trying to do a third way thing. So I actually think a lot of the dynamics we talked about in the elections block, I mean, it reminds me of, of Thomas Massie, quote, when he's going around Kentucky during the Tea Party years, thinking everybody's getting very excited about limited government and libertarian values. And he says, actually it turns out they were just looking for the craziest son of a bitch in the race. Some of that is happening on the left right now too. They want to like, blow up the political establishment figuratively. They want someone to give a middle finger to the political establishment. And I don't, I think it would be be a mistake to say that's just on the left. So I think one of the big questions for Platner is just whether he canwhether his economic message is going to resonate more with people who might have reservations about where he comes from. On some cultural issues. But if Collins, I mean, Collins doesn't ever want to run a cultural war campaign. So I don't think she's going to want to touch a lot of those issues, to be honest. I don't think she's going to want to talk about.

[B]

They could still do the ads, right?

[A]

They could do the ads, but I don't know that Collins is going to want to lean super hard into that. And it's also a very favorable environment for the economic message of Graham Platner, who is not. Sarah Gideon is a much better, I think, messenger on the economic stuff than Sarah Gideon. So it's just you're totally underestimating how angry your base is if you're Mr. Rosa or Auchinclo that. Yes. Do people necessarily want democratic socialism? Do all Democrats necessarily want that? No, but they want anything but the status quo.

[B]

Right?

[A]

Anything but the status quo.

[B]

And the culture. Maybe the culture war is tough for her because of her. She's outwardly pro choice. She voted for Kavanaugh and she swore to everyone that she trusted Kavanaugh, that he would not overturn Roe v. Wade. He promised it was settled law. This is the first time she's run since then. So, yeah, if she tries to do too much culture war, it leads into that uncomfortable moment for her.

[A]

Yeah, that's a good point because again, I think, and this is something I've been talking about with Platner is I actually think he has a better message dealing with some of the. Well, he hasn't talked much about it, but dealing with some of the, like trans sports questions or whatever it is. I think we. We asked him about this once, actually. I have to go back and look. But he's not like apologizing or trying to do a third way thing on it. Whereas with Collins, she really does not want to talk about what she thinks on some of these culture issues. So while most of Maine may disagree with Graham Platner on that issue, they're going to believe that he believes what he's saying. And that's different with Collins because people are going to say, well, then why did you vote for Brett Kavanaugh? Why did you lead to the overturning of Roe? And she has a hard time triangulating on that because she doesn't want to talk about what she really believes. It gets her in trouble. Whereas Platner is just totally yoloing because that's what people want to see, is just something that's a little bit more authentic right now.

[B]

And so Auchincloss here's his climb down. He said Susan Collins is a rubber stamp. Because he was all. Tons of people were calling for him to be primary married and discovered that he has a primary challenger. Jordan Poulos, I think his name is, doesn't have much money but now has a decent amount of attention. Susan Collins is a rubber stamp. This is Auchincloss. Susan Collins is a rubber stamp for the worst administration in history. Claims that I would endorse her implicit or otherwise ignore my track record supporting Democrats to take back both chambers. As I said months ago, I find Platner's Nazi tattoo and his commentary about it personally disqualified. If it were me, I'd vote for someone else in the Maine Democratic primary. Regardless of what happens in Maine, Democrats need to take back the Senate and I'll keep working hard to make it happen. So basically he's sort of grudgingly saying that he will support Platner if he wins when he wins the Democratic primary.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Which is like, weird because it's also like, who cares if you do? Like, people only care. People only care if he's a gang. If he went and campaigned for Platner in Maine, that would hurt him. So just go back to neutral.

[A]

Yeah, I mean, people represent different areas of the country and it's fine.

[B]

But. And so last week, you guys might remember, we talked about the Iowa Senate race where Chuck Schumer spent $9 million and the Super PAC, a conglomerate called Majority Democrats, was arguing that Schumer's candidate was more electable based on the fact that. That he had flipped a red district. But that was a ChatGPT and Wikipedia error because they actually renumbered the districts and he actually had never flipped a red district. Auchincloss is the chair of Majority Democrats, that organization that made that $9 million blunder. So, you know, spare us this political expertise over, over here, Jake.

[A]

All right, well, Ryan booked a very interesting candidate here to discuss some the of. Of these dynamics. Ryan, let's bring in our guest.

[B]

Joining us, more to discuss. This is Randy Villegas, who is a congressional. A Democratic congressional candidate out in California, a professor and an auto shop owner in Bakersfield. Randy, thank you so much for being here.

[E]

Thanks for having me.

[A]

Auto shop owner in Bakersfield sounds like a very fun job.

[B]

But hot, I bet hot. I bet hot in the summer. Good Lord, 100%.

[A]

Some cool cars that come in. I bet.

[B]

I'm sure, I'm sure. So we're going to get to your race in a moment. DCCC has endorsed Jasmine Baines your opponent, whereas you have the endorsement of kind of like Bernie Sanders Progressive Caucus, the Hispanic Caucus, like a whole range of kind of progressive groups that have consolidated behind you. It's really pitting the kind of D.C. establishment against the kind of growing populist progression movement. But I wanted to get your reaction to what we saw unfold in Massachusetts and Maine, where you had Massachusetts Congressman Jake Auchincloss, the head of this super PAC conglomerate called Majority Democrats, kind of ironically coming out against a majority for Democrats by saying that Platner is disqualified because of the tattoo he has. Now, he's done some cleanup since then about that, but he's not alone among a couple of other establishment, like adjacent figures going on Fox or cnn, you know, griping about Platner and saying they wouldn't be crying if he lost. What do you make of, first the recruitment of Janet Mills against Platner, then he beats her so handily she has to drop out, and now this kind of resistance to consolidate behind the presumptive Democratic nominee, which is kind of the opposite of what is demanded when the left is beaten in a primary.

[E]

Yeah, I think you're seeing something similar play out in my race in that it's just another classic example of DC elites and insiders who are completely out of touch with what's actually going on on the ground and people's sentiment on the ground. The fact that you have have, you know, these D.C. insiders trying to put their entire hand on the scale to, you know, tip the scales in the favor of their candidate is just ridiculous and outright undemocratic of the Democratic Party. And, you know, we're seeing that people are ready for an economic populist message that says that these billionaires and organizations like AIPAC don't give a shit about you. And maybe that makes some members of Congress uncomfortable and maybe some members of leadership uncomfortable, but it's the reality of what people are feeling here on the ground. And, you know, people have growth. I think, especially as we're starting to see young people and more millennials and Gen Z running for office whose records on the Internet may be started from when they were toddlers. People, I think, are also waking up to the fact that we're not going to have these candidates who are perfect by any means, and that people are actually capable of growing both as individuals, as human beings, on people's policy positions. And so we actually need to make sure that we have fighters in Congress and Democrats who are going to stand up to this administration and not fold like we see so many establishment Democrats doing.

[A]

And actually I'm super curious about your experience, just as a business owner in Bakersfield, what you hear on the ground. And now you're a candidate too. So you're hearing a lot from different people in the community. What you're hearing on the ground, how is it different from what you hear from national Democratic leadership about what needs to happen or what voters really want or how to communicate, what sort of policies to offer? Is there quite a disconnect? It seems like you were just implying that there was between what you're seeing and then what you hear from kind of national Democrats in Washington D.C. and

[E]

other places, 100% people are struggling right now when it comes to housing, when it comes to gas prices. And that's why, you know, our platform has been resonating with people on the ground and you know, a populist platform actually resonating across the political spectrum. You know, I've talked to Republicans, Democrats and independents alike who recognize how the economy and our health care system is rigged against the working class. You know, I'm very blunt when I talk about health care. Valley fever, diabetes, cancer, doesn't give a shit who you voted for in the last election. It does not care what your party ID is, is. But we know that everybody gets sick, which is why we need health care for all, in my opinion, Medicare for all. And same thing when it comes to housing. You know, your rent, your mortgage, your utilities don't ask you for your party id and neither will this campaign because we're truly focused on fighting for every working class person. I, I think a great example of that is housing. For example, I want to make sure that when I get to Congress, I'm fighting to stop and ban corporations from buying single family homes. Homes or before our families can, you know, you have Wall street buying up entire neighborhoods trying to force people into becoming renters. And it's ironic. You know who agrees with me on this issue? President Trump, who tweeted or truth about this a couple months ago. And who disagrees with me on this issue? My corporate backed Democratic opponent when there was a bill in the legislature, in the California legislature to limit corporations to only owning up to a thousand single family homes. She voted against that bill. And so again, I also have the endorsement of a local Republican mayor. It's not this fight about left versus right. It truly is us versus them. You know, working families in the Central Valley and across this country who've been left behind by politicians in both parties who will cater to the highest bidder

[B]

and so Jasmine Baines, your opponent, actually, I want people to just appreciate this for its own right without describing it. Let's roll. This thought of your opponent, Is Israel

[A]

committing genocide in Gaza?

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Thank you both. So Jasmine Baines was asked, as you saw, is Israel committing genocide in Gaza? Answered yes, was then subsequently endorsed by Democratic Majority for Israel, which is an APAC offshoot, and backed off of that and said, you know what? I think I heard the question wrong. The irony is that in 2023 she spearheaded a resolution in the assembly in California declaring the 1984 killing of 30,000 Sikhs in India to be a genocide. So what has been the effect of the DMFI spending? I know Mark, another Democrat nearby who's also endorsed by against dccc, is endorsed against him, has had, I think millions at this point spent by DMFI against him. What are you seeing in terms of kind of the money coming against you both from the Democratic Party itself, but also DMFI and pro Israel groups?

[E]

Yeah, it's clear that the DCCC getting involved in this race, they are looking for somebody who's going to bend the knee to party leadership and to corporate pacts. And they know that I'm not going to be that I'm going to be a strong and independent voice for the Central Valley. And just like you saw in this clip, Jasmine Baines walked back those comments, claimed she misunderstood the question. I don't know how you misunderstand a genocide, especially as a doctor, when we have doctors on the ground right now trying to save lives of innocent children and women in Palestine and across the world. But they know clearly where I stand on this issue. I signed on to a ceasefire letter as a local public official during the Biden administration. Sadly, that was considered controversial at the time. But I don't think it should be controversial to say that our hard earned taxpayer dollars shouldn't be spent bombing innocent schools and communities across the world world and should be spent building schools and communities right here at home. And that is why the Israel lobby is terrified of someone like me actually getting elected into Congress. And why they're spending roughly a million dollars, not over that at this point through DMFI and through 314, which is historically funneled money for AIPAC. But let me tell you, even Jasmine Baines knows that she's wrong on this issue. She doesn't even list DMFI's endorsement on her website. Right, and it's just another classic example of politicians who are willing to or say anything depending on who's in the room and who are willing to sell their policy positions out to the highest bidder.

[B]

Now, the counterargument from the Democrats in Washington, they say she's more electable. And the thing, one thing they point to is we can put up F6 here. So the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the kind of House Republican super pac, has actually spent not a lot, but in the tens of thousands of dollars, kind of boosting your campaign. And so it seems, at least from House Republicans perspective, that they agree with the DCCC that they would rather run against you than against Jasmy Baines. So why are they wrong?

[E]

Yeah, I don't think anybody should be trying to meddle in this election, whether it's the Democratic establishment, whether it's the Republican Party or any of these super PACs that are spinning against me. People should be allowed to elect the candidate of their choice. And, you know, you have the Republican Party sending mailers, you know, saying I'm too liberal and just sort of things like that, which is ridiculous. You know, they're trying to define me before the general election because they actually know I'm the stronger candidate to take on Jasmeet Baines. And clearly the DCCC recognizes this as well, because. Because if they thought that she could win this race outright on her own, they wouldn't be trying to flood the airwaves at the last minute or endorsing her just as ballots are dropping, you know, to try and save her, because they know that our campaign is resonating on the ground. I mean, in the latest poll, we're actually leading by four points, which is why we're seeing this outflux of, you know, outside money pouring into this district.

[A]

Well, yeah, it's kind of interesting. You mentioned you have the endorsement of a local Republican mayor, and then at the same time, you have. You have CLF pouring money into the race, as Ryan said, a modest sum of money into the race to try to back eu. So there's something interesting going on where on the one hand, national Republicans, probably a little bit like national Democrats, they don't think they might not recognize what's resonating on a sort of grassroots level. Final question for me is just how you're dealing with kind of maybe the culture war can gaps between Republican voters in the Central Valley or even like independent voters in the Central Valley. People who go Democrat, they go Republican. You're trying to build your case in a primary right now, but I imagine that involves talking to some independents and people around the community. I bet immigration is something that you hear about a lot. How do you kind of. There's obviously a gap right now. So how do you handle those types of conversations?

[E]

Yeah, we're knocking on doors for Democrats, Independents and Republicans alike. As you know, California has this jungle primary where the top two move on. So we're talking to every voter and our message is universal to say whether you are a Republican, a Democrat or Independent, you deserve housing that you can afford, you deserve health care, you deserve child care in this country. And these are all not questions of whether we have the financial means to do these things. New Mexico has universal child care. New York is moving in this direction. Vermont was able to figure this out. It's not a question of whether we have the financial means to do these things. It's a question of whether, whether we have the political courage and the moral clarity to actually fight for these things. But, you know, these solutions aren't going to come from politicians who are funded by the same corporations. The root of all these problems, like my opponents and people here in the Central Valley. You know how many people have asked me about trans athletes or any of these culture war issues? Zero. At the doors. I'm not lying to you. Zero. But you don't know how many people I've talked to at the doors who tell me that they will drive seven to eight hours to Tijuana to go get cheaper dental work done, to get cheaper prescription drugs, or even now, cheaper health care. And that shouldn't be happening in the richest country in the history of the world. Which is why we're going to win not just this primary, but the general election, because people are fed up with the status quo within both major political parties who are in bed with corporate interests and they want somebody who's going to fight for them.

[B]

And yes, and to be clear for the audience, I don't think we specified this at the top. David Vellotto, the Republican in Congress incumbent, currently occupies the seat. So this would be, this would be a flip. This is different than, you know, the candidates we talked to last week who were, you know, fighting it out and whoever wins the Democratic primary is, is going to win in an easy blue seat. This is, this is going to be a tough race to flip. And it, and it'll be interesting to see if somebody, you know, backed by the Working Families Party, Bernie Sanders, aoc, the Progressive Caucus, you know, can, can pull that out off. So, Randy, thanks so much for being here. And I guess the election is on Tuesday, right? Yep.

[E]

June 2nd.

[B]

I guess you're looking forward to that. But then it's not over if you're in the top two and you got another another another few months of this campaigning thing. But thanks so much for being here.

[E]

Of course. Thanks for having me. And for folks who are interested in helping us out, head to Randy.

[C]

Vote.

[E]

Donate your time, your money, whatever you can to help us win this fight. So thanks so much for having me me.

[B]

You got it. Talk to you later.

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