← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
5/4/26: Israel Uses Gaza Strategy In Lebanon, Epstein Suicide Note, China Screw You To US Sanctions
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- [00:00]
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This is an iHeart podcast.
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Guaranteed Human support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures protect
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
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Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.
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Saagar Enjeti
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of the show.
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Krystal Ball
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
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Saagar Enjeti
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
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Krystal Ball
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com turning now to Israel. Just checking in on what's going on there. Don't forget that we started this entire thing with the Iran war. So who's descendant right now in Israeli society? Here we have Itmar Ben gvir. Let's go and put this up here on the screen. Israel's national security minister. He was presented by his wife for his 50th birthday, a cake on which you can actually see a noose, a gag, gallows. So that's how they celebrate in that family. Seems really healthy. Definitely a reflection of a very loving marriage and of the values that you would want to inculcate.
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Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, and this is specifically in honor of his successful ability to get past the law that sentences all Palestinians. I mean, they're effectively hostages in this sham system where they have no hope of being exonerated even if they committed no crimes. But they all get sentenced to the death penalty. Do Jewish Israelis get sentenced to the death penalty for similar quote, unquote terroristic crimes? No, they do not. So that's what this cake is celebrating. So it's not just the spirit. There is a substance, there is a death cult substance behind it. And you'd be hard pressed to think of a more openly genocidal society than the modern day Israel.
- [03:53]
Krystal Ball
I just think it's crazy that, I mean, look, I don't think all Israelis even necessarily agree with this. I think that, you know, there's probably a decent number who'd be horrified. But what I find crazy is that this does not lead to, this does not lead to any sort of like open reflection. Because even if you were going to have this ideology, this type of celebration, wouldn't you want to hide it a little bit? Like, would you want really to telegraph it? I think, you know, to everybody about your open like intent, it's just nuts, I think broadly. So let's go to C2 because this is how that connects with what's actually happening on the ground. And Lebanon, remember Israel, this is from the New York Times, actually did a very good job here. They say Israel said it's applying the Gaza model in Lebanon. This is what the devastation like. So they had some drone footage and cameras that actually went through these different Lebanese areas. And the reason why I think this is so important Is that with Lebanon, there's no even similar pretext like there was with. There was no October 7th. There were rockets that were fired by Hezbollah. So Israel comes in into southern Lebanon and basically says, okay, everybody below the Litany river, you've all gotta go, basically indefinitely. We will not allow anybody to stay. We're gonna demolish everything in that area. Applying the Gaza playbook, but for a very, very different incident. And remember, this is not even in. I mean, I guess you could call Gaza disputed territory. This is a sovereign nation. They just invaded it, basically took it over, destroyed a decent portion of all of it, and said, yeah, we're here now. We're gonna stay for as long as we need to. First, you know what security perimeter. They've even declared that they won't even allow people to build homes in the south near within rocket firing range. And you're like, okay. And all of this with the tacit and basically open support of the United States. So this was nearly a million people or so that seemed to have been affected by this or could be affected in the long enough run, which definitely tens of thousands in the immediate term with many of these villages, Hundreds of people were killed. Beirut itself, many of it, much of it was bombed. They said they were targeting all of this infrastructure, but it's the same playbook as what happened in Gaza. And yet this time, it's not even nearly as much outrage when, in my opinion, look, I actually think it might be more outrageous because you have this precipitating event of Hezbollah firing rockets, okay? You can strike them from air. They're like, no, we're gonna invade. We're going to demolish. They had those photos that came out of the guy beating the Jesus statue. I mean, you know, what was it the Shia thing? I forget off the top of my head.
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Saagar Enjeti
They warned Christians not to hide Shia Muslims.
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Krystal Ball
They were like, openingly telling like, hey, anybody who's Shia, they gotta go like, hey, you're not allowed to hide any Shia. You're like, what the hell? You know, I mean, this is out in the open in terms of how they're acting. Oh, and just so you guys know, the initial buffer zone, oh, then they would expand it, and then they would expand it even more. And they basically have openly said, we're not leaving. Like, we're not leaving, period. And then, you know, I don't know, we all go. Everyone in Washington goes crazy over this crazy idea that maybe we should tell them, like, hey, maybe stop doing that, because it's actually creating more problems in terms of our ceasefire with Iran. So, yeah, and I don't know, you put it all together, you can just see how this has now been normalized beyond just Gaza, how it's already creating major problems here for America. And I mean, do you really think they're going to stop? They haven't even stopped in the middle of the ceasefire. Dozens of people were killed in airstrikes and conflagration. So if this doesn't completely end, then how are we ever going to get some sort of a settlement in the future? And this is just how they are now. They're open, they're emboldened by this, and they're just going to continue doing this until we just tell them to stop and we just won't do it. I don't get it.
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Saagar Enjeti
That's absolutely the case. And to your point about the targeting of Shia Muslims, there are the predominantly Christian villages have been damaged, but not nearly to the extent of the devastation of the Shia Muslim dominant villages, which have just been utterly decimated. And in the VO that we were showing you earlier from the New York Times, one of the images was of them destroying these solar panels. And you might think, well, why is that significant? It's because Israel, of course, they claim, and the New York Times, you know, credibly reprints this stuff too, even in this article, which did important journalistic work. Oh, well, they claim they're targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. Please tell me how fricking solar panels that just provide electricity to a town could possibly be, quote, unquote, Hezbollah infrastructure. And so once they were called out on the, oh, we're going to discipline them. Oh, this isn't how we operate. Bullshit. We can all see the images of the way that you are applying the very same Gaza model now to Lebanon. And it's clear why. Because they got away with it in Gaza. Not only did they get away with it, they're still still getting away with it in Gaza. So they rightfully think there are gonna be no consequences for this. We can do what we want. Now, I will say Hezbollah has proven to be more dangerous and tenacious than they expected. They have these fiber optic drones that have been used to significant effect against the idf. The IDF has not been able to advance all the way to the Litany river in all sections, which had been the original goal. When we talked to Shael last week, he was talking. They're kind of like pinned down in this one area, and they can't really advance, but they're not being allowed to retreat. So in some ways they're kind of sitting ducks for Hezbollah forces, which is why they've sustained some significant damage.
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Krystal Ball
Casualties.
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Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, they have had some significant casualty numbers. But in any case, back to the point about Gaza and how they got away with it. Well, now they're publishing new maps and creating every day new realities on the ground where they now control 2/3 of the Gaza Strip. Let's go ahead and take a listen to this report, I believe. Is this Reuters? Yeah, this is a Reuters report about how Israel has expanded control now to 2/3 of the Gaza Strip.
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News Reporter
Israel has quietly been expanding its control of Gaza. It has sent new maps to aid groups, sources said, which have not been released publicly. The latest version shows a freshly restricted area marked out with an orange line. It extends beyond the yellow line zone occupied by Israeli troops agreed in the U. S Brokered October ceasefire. Reuters acquired the maps and shared them with Palestinian researchers in the occupied West Bank. Jad Isaac, who heads up the Applied Research Institute Jerusalem, says the new line shows Israel now controls nearly two thirds of Gaza. Israel says the Orange line sets out a restricted zone where aid groups must coordinate their movements with the military. It's to enable, quote, humanitarian activity while safeguarding personnel in a complex operational environment, according to Kogat, the Israeli military agency that controls access to Gaza. But thousands of Gazan families are now caught between the lines. Residents say they lack water and other supplies because aid groups are scared to send staff there. At least three Palestinians working with foreign aid groups have been killed in the new restricted zone. Israel's military said it had opened fire after identifying threats near the yellow line. Al Shawar says residents are also regularly being killed and wounded in the area. He says they aren't given warning when the line shifts. According to Kogat, the orange line boundaries are updated according to operational assessments. It declined to comment on the frequency of updates or whether it communicates them to Palestinian civilians.
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Saagar Enjeti
And if you read or see videos of day to day life for Palestinians in Gaza, it's just absolutely horrifying. I mean, you can imagine, right? You've had all of these years at this point of bombing and destruction and attacking wastewater treatment plants and any sort of basic infrastructure. So you have rats that are running rampant, you have disease that is spreading. It's just absolutely miserable. People have been living in these tents for God knows how long, have been displaced so many times. These poor children. It's just absolutely horrifying. I wanted to read a little bit of what Shael put out actually on Twitter this morning. He says Israel's planning its operation to finish the genocide in Gaza. The pretext is that Hamas is rebuilding and will not disarm. Of course, Israel refused to negotiate sincerely over the future of Gaza process, which would involve that discussion. He goes on, in terms of, you know, making his case, why he thinks they're getting ready to go back to this more aggressive offensive. He says there are currently six brigades operating in Gaza. Troop rotations indicate preparations for a prolonged intensive presence. The paratroopers brigade is set to replace a reserve Brigade. And the 205th Brigade, known as the Iron Fist, recently completed its sixth combat rotation since the war began. So he sees all the indications that that is the direction that they are heading in. And you know, as the world moves on, is focused on Iran, is now focused somewhat on Lebanon. They continue the killing, they continue to seize more territory and Palestinians in Gaza continue to suffer in absolutely miserable conditions. But to Shael's point, Zacher, you know, when that ORIG ceasefire deal was struck, those more difficult questions about disarmament, what the future would look like, they were pushed off to the next phase, the Board of Peace. And there was supposed to be negotiations over what that next phase looked like. And that just never happened. So Israel is able to effectively do whatever they feel like.
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Krystal Ball
Right. And why even spend time on this? Because this is going to dramatically affect the situation with Iran. If you are Iran. I mean, this is honestly even the current ceasefire, I still don't really get it from their perspective at all. But this is evidence where you can see in the very near term of how the US and Israel have conducted themselves. Whenever they sign a peace deal and they say they're not gonna do X, Y and Z. This is probably part of the reason why they're going so hard in their current negotiations. And they're not buckling cuz they can see directly, they're like, hey, we really can't take these people's word for it unless we have it explicitly in writing. And even then we need immediate steps to make sure that they can't restart hostilities against us if they to want to. So I think, you know, putting this stuff all together is important because these actions between Gaza, Lebanon and others are having a direct follow on effect on how the Iranians are negotiating with the United States and with Israel, obviously, because they're counterparty to this. You know, we do want to also shout out the level of derangement here in the United States. So let's go to the next one. This is the US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee. He did a long screed against the New York Times and Tucker Carlson, who recently put out like a two hour podcast. In it, he says, Tucker accused me of advocating for killing of children and civilians. Asked to respond, I sent the following for the New York Times. Poor Tucker needs help. He's clearly circling the drain by saying something so outrageous. No sane person advocates for the murder of children or civilians. Even the allegation is sick and evil. Tucker limits his compassion to the unfortunate souls who have died in Gaza as a result.
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Saagar Enjeti
In Gaza?
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Guest or Secondary Commentator
Yep.
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Krystal Ball
As the result of the stubborn and good, good, great call of the stubbornness of Hamas to release hostages and murder their own citizens and intentionally put them in front of military assets. One never hears Tucker lament the massacre and mutilation of 1200 women, babies and elderly people butchered by Hamas on October 7, or the torture, rape and starvation of the 251 hostages taken and held by Hamas. I am heartbroken by the slaughter of innocent civilians wherever they are, whoever they are. Tucker's irrational hatred of Jews in general and Israel in particular binds him to the horrific savagery inflicted upon the victims of October 7, including the rape of women in front of their children, the beheading of babies in the presence of their mothers, or setting fire to elderly people who sat in wheelchairs and were burned alive. All of which were captured on video taken by Hamas terrorists who were so proud of their despicable acts that they wore GoPro cameras to record it as if they were taking movies of a dance recital. Okay, so taking that all in totality, and, you know, the highlighted portion, which was put out in kind of a debunking on Twitter. And this is always uncomfortable because this idea that we're gonna sit here and say that 1200 people didn't die on October 7th is ridiculous. No one's gonna say that. It was literally on video. Much of it was published. They were massacred, slaughtered, many of them. Now, there's some other stuff that happened on that day as well, in terms of the failures of the Israeli military and then their own, but let's even put that all to the side. Many civilians were killed horrifically on October 7th. However, many of the claims that they had made had, you know, in the initial days of the war did not hold up to scrutiny. And for this, you have to look no further than Israeli media. That's why, you know, I don't even cite necessarily drop side and. Right. Not that I don't love those guys, but when I have to get into this argument with people who will often give me, you know, These similar lines, I go, listen, Haaretz did the work. There's no evidence. Right. Especially in the beheaded babies. That was probably the most, like, cited claim in the initial days of the war of barbarism. And there's plenty of other things that you could have also picked to, which are true, by the way. But on that particular one, like Haaretz and others in the Israeli media went through systematically, now people say, why do you spend so much time doing this? Well, like in this particular case, let's say with Huckabee, like you are justifying war, for example, let's say actions of the Israeli military in Gaza, specifically, on the basis of many of these types of claims. All you have to do is point to the acknowledged and real evidence, I think, of what happened on October 7, which is plenty enough. I don't think it justifies their response, but this just demonstrates, I think, the level of which they have to resort to, to also point fingers at their ideological enemies. Right?
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Saagar Enjeti
Yes. Yeah. I mean, yeah, it feels really gross to do this, but just as a point of fact, there were no babies beheaded. None. There were none baked in ovens. The claim that has been made that Hamas used rape as a weapon of war, that claim has not been substantiated. What has been substantiated is the way Israel uses rape as a weapon of war. But funny, I haven't heard Mike Huckabee speak out about that, of which we have far more evidence and proof from our great ally Israel. And there's a very specific reason why these claims were pushed in the wake of October 7th. And Adam Johnson just published a book, how to Sell a Genocide, which focuses in specifically on liberal media and the role that they play. The New York Times in particular, but New York Times, cnn, msnbc, all of them in buying enough time for Biden and for Netanyahu to conduct this ethnic cleansing and genocidal campaign. And one of the very early efforts that was made was to portray Palestinians in general, Hamas specifically, as these absolute barbarians that you could never have a ceasefire with, you could never have a peace deal with. That is just absolutely impossible. And so that's why they invented these very specific claims about, about rape, used systematically as a weapon of war, about beheaded babies, about baking babies in ovens, et cetera. That is the reason they wanted to portray them as these bloodthirsty maniacs, animals, as the Israelis were describing them, in order to justify what they knew was going to be a horrific campaign of war crime after war crime. So to hear him still at this late date after this has been thoroughly debunked. I mean the beheaded babies thing is just like not true at all. In fact. And again, I hate to say that there was one baby that was killed on October 7th. That's horrific. One baby is horrific enough, right? There were not dozens who were even killed, let alone none of them beheaded. So in any case, just disgusting to see these lies and propaganda atrocity propaganda continuing to be pushed by a significant American official who he and his staff have exercised a lot of influence apparently within the Trump administration as well.
- [20:13]
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- [22:46]
Saagar Enjeti
One more piece here that we they wanted to get in because I do think it ties into the way that Americans have shifted because they've seen all of they've seen these lies, they've seen through the lies, they've seen the horrors on their own timelines and developed their own opinions about what our relationship with Israel should be and how we should conduct ourselves in the Middle East. So the media outlets Daily Wire, you know, with their most prominent personality being Ben Shapiro, has really suffered in terms of viewership in the recent in recent years really post 10-7-AS the public and as conservatives in particular, young conservatives in particular have shifted away from this view of we should have lockstep support for Israel. And so they just conducted significant layoffs. We don't know exactly how many Candace is out claiming like 60%. I have not seen any like let's just talk about solid concrete numbers. There were layoffs for sure, there were significant layoffs and the number that's been floating around is actually 50%. But none of this has been confirmed. They haven't confirmed it either. But, but there's a lot to be said about this number one. First and foremost, like I said, I think the ideological positioning has been a big problem for them. And if you look at the views for Ben show in particular, it has just really fallen off a cliff as people are increasingly even in the conservative movement are increasingly having a different view. And then the other piece is just like a sort of business piece which is that they built out this huge organization. They wanted to do children's stuff, they wanted to do movies, they did all of that stuff. And in the non corporate media, although they have corporate backing, they have big billionaire backing, whatever. Anyway, it's just very difficult when you have a personality driven company to build out all of that overhead and make it a sustainable project. So I think you have a confluence of those two things coming to life.
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Krystal Ball
Yeah, people point to the Ben Shapiro YouTube look. I mean it's a tough business. We've all been. I'll say it's not been that tough for us recently. But you know, in general I don't like to nickel and dime, like, oh, he's got 20,000 less subscribers, whatever. He's got 7 million subscribers. Okay, so that's not like the biggest indication. To me the biggest indication is sustained drop over the last three year period and the fact this company has to do layoffs. Now why do they have to do layoffs? Because they're over capital or because they were, they took in a ton of money. They had this big ambitious agenda and it didn't work, period. Right. It just did not work. And that's very clear. Especially as the conservative coalition begins to fracture. And you can especially see it, I mean Ryan got applause recently at some event with Emily where he said that they should sanction Israel. This is a young conservative event. He got applause, okay? So that's the reality of what we're living in now. So that's just not really gonna cut it. I also think as Trump reaches all time low unpopularity or all time low popularity in the US that the appetite for just like the most like, you know, Trump can do no wrong. Like oh, but what about the. It's like bro, gas is 450 a gallon. I don't need to be hearing about some high school in, I don't know, in Boston.
- [25:55]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
Right?
- [25:55]
Krystal Ball
Like, you know, it's like that feels very trite to me right now.
- [25:58]
Saagar Enjeti
The woke college kids aren't selling the way they used to.
- [26:01]
Krystal Ball
I'm telling you this as a person who also hates that, but I'm also self aware enough to say nobody gives a shit about CRT like curricula in a local Boston school district while gas is $4.54 a gallon. That's just the truth. Right? Like, you know, what is a woman and all that ain't hitting today in my opinion. It was a very different and specific period of time. And that's fine. But my point is just like that era of politics and content is just not gonna sell in this immediate term. And their appetite just generally, from what I've been able to see, I mean they have some good reporters and others who really do care about the news, but for a lot, you know, their main driver is gonna be that type of stuff. And that's just not, it's not gonna click right now, especially with Ben and especially with a lot of the way that they have to try and approach the Trump administration. Cause for them, they want influence too and you can't be openly critical. So they're in the same spot as the blue and on guys were when Biden was at his nadir. Remember, like Harry Sisson, you know, sorry Harry, I know you had it on the show and we appreciated you coming up. But my point is like those die hard Biden guys, they look like idiots. Like in and when Biden, especially around the debate and that time period, we're like, bro, what are you doing? Like they had no their audience like a lot of even their own, like blue, you know, Democrat audience was like, hey guys, like you're really defending Biden a lot here. Like I'm sorry, like I just don't agree. So it's just, it's a tale as old as time. Yeah, I think in political coverage he
- [27:31]
Saagar Enjeti
also lost a couple of his biggest, most prominent personalities. Candace obviously left in very, you know, contentious circumstances. You had Brett Cooper who also you went independent and now I haven't followed that closely. But it seems like she's tried to reposition herself somewhat and have more of an independent approach in terms of her views on Israel. And she's got this very young audience. She herself is very young. So she would have more finger on the pulse there, et cetera. So that also shows the limits of what you could do because there's no reason, putting aside whatever personal or ideological conflict, once you're as big as Candace Owens, there's just no reason to stay though. Why would you not do your own thing and make your own money and set your own terms and not have to deal with a boss? Why would you not do that? But to your point, Sagar, about how the, you know, the woke college kids or the CRT curricula isn't selling the way it used to. That's actually a point Tucker made in his interview with the New York Times. I don't know if you listened to the whole interview, but he said, listen, I think the only thing people are going to really focus on is economics because it's getting that dire, you know, whether it's, whether it's, whether it's AI Obviously with the Iran war affordability crisis that that is where the energy is going to be. And if you aren't focused on that, then people are not going to be interested in what you have to say. And I think he's probably right about that it's just so obvious.
- [28:46]
Krystal Ball
I don't think it takes a genius really to figure it out. I mean, at the end of the day, the cultural stuff is what gets your base animated. And then you get the swing voters and others to come on your side when you convince them that things are going to be better for you.
- [28:58]
Pablo Torre
Right?
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Krystal Ball
I mean, is the culture convincing?
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Saagar Enjeti
This sounds too dismissive. And I'm not saying they're not important, but it's almost like a luxury to get to focus on those sorts of debates. Because if you're just trying to make it through month to month and survive and keep the lights on, of course that's going to be your number one concern for some of us. Totally.
- [29:18]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
Yeah.
- [29:19]
Krystal Ball
That's why the culture war, the most culture wars that we had in my lifetime was in the 90s. Cause shit was fine. Like everything was mostly fine. Now a lot of people will get mad, but that's the truth, okay? Like most of the time. Why do you think Lewinsky was such a big scandal, okay, when the Dow and the S and P are up so high and we're living in the unipolar moment, that's only in this very unique moment in time. Could anybody even pretend to give a shit, you know, with. About Ken Starr and Lewinsky and the wall to wall coverage when things are really dire? Yeah, nobody wants to hear it. Like whenever we're talking about, you know, some of these 2022 controversies, I mean, imagine even trying to seriously talk about that right now. We barely have time for like vitally important stories because we're in the middle of a global realignment war happening in not only in the Middle east, which is spiking gas to existential levels for American households. That's all anybody is gonna want to
- [30:14]
Saagar Enjeti
imagine covering, like the racial makeup of the Little Mermaid remake at this point.
- [30:20]
Krystal Ball
That's true.
- [30:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, that's true. Yeah. You can see in our own coverage it's.
- [30:24]
Krystal Ball
And I'm telling you as a person
- [30:25]
Saagar Enjeti
economics, this is a person who, like,
- [30:27]
Krystal Ball
I'm not saying I don't care about this stuff, but again, I care a lot more about the price of gas and about the ability of my fellow citizens to like not die from, from starvation or something like that than I do about those things. Those are just fights for another day, I think, at the current moment. But if that's all you've got in your quiver, it ain't gonna be good for you going forward. And by the way, there's three more years of this show. So let's see, let's see how much that. Let's see how that works out for said crew. All right. Speaking of important stories which we haven't been able to cover as much as we'd like to, let's go to Epstein.
- [30:59]
Ad Read Host
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures let's talk about modern home shopping.
- [32:02]
It's sort of become a fun side hobby, right? Scrolling listings at night, dreaming about kitchens you've never seen or backyards you haven't even stepped foot in. All from the comfort of pretty much anywhere. Redfin knows a lot of people like you want to own but are stuck in this browsing mode loop. That's where Redfin flips the script with listings that update within minutes and tours you can book right from the Redfin app you can see your dream home the moment it appears. Now liking a listing is easy, but actually landing it? That's where Redfin comes in. Redfin has over 2200 agents with local expertise and Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents. That means they want to help you win, not just window shop. Redfin is built to help you go from just looking to wait. This could actually be home. So become the newest neighbor on the block. Visit redfin.com to start finding and start owning. That's redfin.com protect your pet with insurance
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- [33:32]
Krystal Ball
Turning now to Jeffrey Epstein shocking piece of news that we've now learned after some seven years. Let's go and put this up here on the screen. Jeffrey Epstein's possible suicide note was hidden from public view. Interesting, huh? So you've had the release of all of these different Epstein files. You've had all this testimony, OIG reports from the Department of Justice. It's been so many years now, seven years almost to the day, since Epstein allegedly killed himself, let's just say died in federal custody. And in all that time period, we did not know this basic fact. A suicide note purportedly written by Epstein in his jail cell has been kept secret. Now locked up in a New York courthouse, a cellmate said he discovered the note in July 2019 after Epstein was found unresponsive with a strip of cloth around his neck. Epstein survived that incident, but weeks later was found dead in the jail. The note was eventually sealed by a federal judge as a part of the cellmate's own criminal case. That means investigators scrutinizing his death lacked what would have been a key piece of evidence. On Thursday, the Times petitioned a judge to unseal the note, which said it was, quote, time to say goodbye, the cellmate recalled. While Tartu, the cellmate, mentioned that note on a podcast last year, the scrawled message has remained hidden from public view, even at a time of unprecedented transparency. And since December, the Justice Department has released all of these pages, millions of pages of documents. The Times has not seen the note. They can't find it in the Epstein files. The DOJ said the agency had not even seen it. But a cryptic two page chronology in the records, and this was credit again to the Times for finding this became tangled up. The chronology says that the lawyers authenticated the note, though it does not explain how, if it was written by Epstein, the message would provide insights into his state of mind in the weeks before he died hanging from a bunk bed. And the DoJ said that in response to a federal law, they underwent an exhausted effort to collect all the records in that possession. So basically, as of right now, it's not coming out. It's sealed up. In this particular case, this guy is now currently serving four life sentences, and he's pursuing an appeal. As long as that's an appeal, it's gonna remain sealed. He, like we said, I mean, he claims it was just a scrawled note. Time to say good. I mean, maybe. I don't know. By the way, you know, guy serving four life sentences in cell with Epstein. Okay.
- [35:56]
Saagar Enjeti
He's like somebody with, you know, it's a very important detail.
- [35:59]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [36:00]
Saagar Enjeti
So this guy is a former cop who was convicted of drug trafficking and murder of four different people. That's why his sentence is so extensive. So why was he put. Why was he Epstein's cellmate to begin with? Is question number one. Number two, it's very. I have a lot of questions about this story. His eyebrow raises. He's the one who found the note, and they claim, oh, we verify. We confirmed it was totally Epstein's handwriting. Can you see it? No, you can't see it, but just take our word for it. So I don't know. But interesting reporting from the Times here at the existence of this. You know, if it was released, of course, you could have independent analysis that was done, handwriting confirmation to see whether or not this note was legitimate. Obviously, the content of this alleged suicide note, you know, if he truly did pen a suicide note saying, hey, I'm outta here, and thanks for the good times or whatever it is that this note contains, obviously that would be very significant in terms of helping to affirm or rebut some of the conspiracies around the death of Jeffrey Epstein. So, anyway, a lot of questions remain on that one. At the same time. This is crazy. Put D2 up on the screen. Apparently, Republicans are split on the idea of clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell. So you've got Republicans on this House panel who are trying to sell this bill of goods that, oh, we'll grant her clemency. We'll have Trump grant her clemency, and then she will testify and she will hand in all of the perpetrators, and it will help us with our investigation. I mean, of course, the victims are. Of course. This is a disgusting idea. Of course it's an insane idea, because you're gonna trust this lady. She is one of the greatest criminals here in all of this, enabled all of this abuse, and you're gonna set her free. I mean, it is crazy that she's the only one who's in prison, but at least one person is in prison serving jail time. For these horrific crimes that were committed. So in any case, this is the latest line that they're trying to sell of, like, it's actually gonna be good for the victim if we let Ghislaine Maxwell off the hook here. Crazy.
- [38:09]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Look, I don't really know what's going on. I do know that the House Committee continues some of this work specifically. And by the way, there's been some other Epstein reports which we, again, haven't had as much time to. Look, nothing here is too crazy, but they just show, for example, there is still, quote, accountability and other people who have been disgraced by the Epstein affair. It's just that none of them who are being removed or resigning are in our government. Let's go to the next one, please, and put this up here on the screen. This was just from two days ago. Bard's College's president is going to retire after scrutiny of his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Leon Botstein, who is president of Bard College for half a century, will retire at the end of June. He didn't mention Epstein except saying he had waited to his announced retirement publicly until the completion of an independent review of his relationship. Now, to be clear, he was not accused of wrongdoing or anything with Epstein, but he was among, quote, a long list of prominent and notable men who maintained friendly relationship with him for years despite his status as a convicted sex offender. The actual Epstein files show that they had met on multiple occasions, sometimes Epstein arriving at Bard by helicopter. And the President had also suggested Epstein be a guest at the 2013 graduation ceremony that they meet for an opera performance. In addition, he reached out to him weeks after the Miami Herald reporting, saying, quote, I want you to know I hope you are holding up as well as can be expected, and separately referred to his friendship in at least two emails. Epstein steered $150,000 to him in 2016, which the president previously said he donated to the college and had also previously denied having any personal relationship with the man. So if Bard College apparently has more independence end of a review than anybody in the United States government. Yes, makes a lot of sense. Makes a lot of sense. And then finally, big shout out to our friend Pablo Torre, who did a new Epstein, new Epstein revelation on his podcast. We just wanted to play a little bit of a clip to give him a shout out. Let's take a listen. This one involves Harvard University.
- [40:23]
Pablo Torre
What we started with was this 2003 quote about Epstein from Professor Martin Novak as read by PTFO correspondent Dhruv Patel, the managing editor of my old college Newspaper, the Harvard Crimson.
- [40:36]
Ad Read Host
He is one of the most pleasant philanthropists to deal with, Novak says. Unlike many people who support science, he
- [40:42]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
supports science without any conditions.
- [40:45]
Ad Read Host
There are not any disadvantages to associating with him.
- [40:49]
Pablo Torre
And then we unearth proof of the Jeffrey E. Epstein Fund for Women's Athletics, which was specially earmarked for the women's rugby team. And it had a Harvard shield and the word veritas across the top of this confidential document. Although according to multiple former rugby players we talked to, the team was never informed that the money came from Jeffrey Epstein. In fact, they were told to keep the fund quiet. What we then showed was how Harvard's 2020 report concerning Jeffrey E. Epstein's connections to Harvard University was presented to the public as this thorough self investigation spanning 250,000 pages of documents, and yet it did not discuss the Jeffrey E. Epstein Fund for Women's Athletics or the president of Harvard who personally solicited it, Lawrence H. Summers. Larry Summers was the ex Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton who was so close to Epstein that Epstein was calling himself Summers wingman as recently as 2018. In fact, Summers rode on Epstein's plane in 2004 ahead of the creation of the Jeffrey E. Epstein Fund for Women's Athletics. And then Summers spent part of his own honeymoon on Epstein island the next year, in 2005. And if you're wondering what a Harvard spokesperson told us in response to a detailed list of questions, they declined comment, but did point out that Epstein's $25,000 fund for women's Athletics became part of a larger donation Harvard eventually made after that 2020 self report to two organizations supporting victims of human trafficking and sexual assault. Meanwhile, a spokesman for Larry Summers has since told us that Summers was in fact interviewed as part of Harvard's 2020 self, indeed investigation, and that Summers fundraising as Harvard president was done, quote, with the full involvement of the development office and the university's legal, financial and due diligence functions, end quote. And further, all such fundraising happened, quote, prior to Epstein's 2006 arrest, end quote.
- [43:02]
Krystal Ball
Nice work there by Pablo. They did a good job compiling it all together, just furthering more of what we know. These elite universities, their cozy little relationships, all these college presidents, how he was always getting together. Now we have a suicide note. So let's see. Let's just say let's see what it says. We passed a piece of legislation, let's put it to bed, let's release it to the public, and then we can all decide for ourselves what exactly he was trying to say, all right, we got Richard Wolff standing by Professor. Let's get to it.
- [43:30]
Ad Read Host
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETF with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc, SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosure closures
- [44:31]
let's talk about modern home shopping. It's sort of become a fun side hobby, right Scrolling listings at night, dreaming about kitchens you've never seen or backyards you haven't even stepped foot in. All from the comfort of pretty much anywhere. Redfin knows a lot of people like you want to own but are stuck in this browsing mode loop. That's where Redfin flips the script. With listings that update within minutes and tours you can book right from the Redfin app, you can see your dream home the moment it appears. Now, liking a listing is easy, but actually landing it? That's where Redfin comes in. Redfin has over 2200 agents with local expertise, and Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents. That means they want to help you win, not just window shop. Redfin is built to help you go from just looking to wait. This could actually be home. So become the newest neighbor on the block. Visit redfin.com to start finding and start owning. That's redfin.com the following ad is sponsored
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- [46:33]
Saagar Enjeti
joining us now to talk about the global economic impacts from the Iran war is Professor Richard Wolff, is professor of Economics Emeritus at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He's also co founder of Democracy at Work and host of their syndicated show Economic Update. Great to see you, Rick.
- [46:49]
Krystal Ball
Good to see you, sir.
- [46:50]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
Thank you very much, both of you. It's a pleasure to be back.
- [46:53]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, of course. So I wanted to start with this specific news, then we can sort of broaden out, but this seems very noteworthy from China. We can put E1 up on the screen. This is from our friends over at Dropsite. They say China invokes blocking statute for the first time. China's Ministry of Commerce has for the first time activated its 2021 blocking rules ordering all Chinese firms and individuals not to comply with US Sanctions targeting five independent Chinese oil refineries accused of purchasing Iranian crude. Beijing called the US Measure imposed under two executive orders an unjustified and improper use of extra to territorial law. The move puts multinational companies operating in both markets in direct legal conflict. Compliance with U.S. sanctions now risks violating Chinese law and vice versa. Global banks and firms with dollar exposure face secondary sanctions risk if they continue dealing with the affected refineries. So help us understand, if you could, the significance of this action from the Chinese.
- [47:53]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
Well, my judgment is it's very significant. It marks a change in the way that the Chinese are approaching what has been the American foreign policy now for quite some years. I would summarize describe that policy as very provocative interferences in a way previous American governments have not felt entitled to do. The Trump administration prides itself on doing what previous governments didn't do. I mean, the war in Iran is a grosser example of all of that and what the Chinese have done until now is tiptoe around it, make believe they didn't know about it, urge their banks and others to find evasive ways of getting around it. Now, that is most of the time enough. Sanctions are a very crude instrument. We have been applying sanctions as a nation, and the United States does that more than any other country on earth. Nobody else is even close. We have been applying sanctions, as folks know, on Cuba, on North Korea, on Russia, for years and years and years. And they have found very quickly ways around it, it. And so they can pretend not to notice and get around it and no more feathers get ruffled. What the Chinese just did in the clip that you just showed us was to say, if you allow me, to paraphrase our President, no more Mr. Nice Guy, we are not going to tiptoe around you. We are simply saying to the world, no more. We, the Chinese government, will not permit our banks to be threatened in this way, to be inconvenienced. It costs a little to get around sanctions. It's not that it's free, it's a nuisance, but we're not going to allow that anymore. And we're serving notice on the whole world that this is no longer our problem. We are not alone the Chinese gonna figure out how to dance around Trump. We're throwing down a kind of gauntlet, if you will, saying no. And so this raises enormous questions, because now the next issue is how seriously will the Chinese government pursue any Chinese or other entity that conforms to what the United States wants and thereby violates what the Chinese just did. So we'll see. And, you know, it's another one of these little, not so little maneuvers around the chessboard. And we all wonder who's going to yell uncle first, right now. I have to tell you, though, as an American economist, born, worked here all my life, and I'm glad about that, that this is embarrassing. This is not the way international trade ought to be conducted. And it looks to the whole world, my colleagues around the world, including many that are very friendly to the United States, it really looks like a country that can't compete in the old ways, having to do it in these ways. And when you look at it that way, then the sympathy begins to move towards China as being the victim of this change. And they're all worried that they will be the next victim of the change. And it's shifting the whole world balance in ways that, if I were a policymaker, would worry me.
- [52:01]
Krystal Ball
Professor, let's zoom out more. You just spoke There about China. But what does this mean generally? You were talking there about the international trading system. US Dollar hegemony, like the basis of the American empire, has really rested on its economic might, not just to compel countries, but to do business with a lot of these countries. When you combine this with the current Iran situation and the level of damage US Consumers are taking, for example, let's put the gas price up here now on the screen. We currently have it at $4.44, or about $4.45 a gallon at the national average, over $6 a gallon in the state of California. So we're punishing our own domestic economy. We're also doing kind of, like you said, embarrassing ourselves on the international front. Some sort of new order will emerge from this. What's that gonna look like? And how's that gonna affect us all?
- [52:50]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
Well, things are going very, very fast and they're going downhill for the dollar. I don't wanna be misunderstood. The dollar is still the most important global currency, but it is nowhere near as powerful, as dominant as it once was. So comforting yourself by saying well over 50% of the Central banks of the world keep their reserve to back up their own currency in dollars. True enough, but it used to be 80%. And that is a sea change in terms of what is counted as secure. You know, we just crossed a milestone a few days ago when our national debt exceeds our gdp. That's a usual warning sign. But to whom is it a warning? To the people who lend to the United States. Countries, companies, banks, Americans, foreigners, they all now have to ask a question. Is this declining role of the dollar something that ought to make me either stop lending to the United States the way we've been doing for the last 30 years, or LEND, but demand much higher interest payments to compensate for the rising risk of the number one debtor country in the world. And now let me add to that. Iran, the Gulf countries, the half dozen countries out there, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, all of that, they have taken a shellacking in this war. Americans don't perhaps grasp it, but the Iranians have been extraordinarily successful, far beyond anything that any of us foresaw, in damaging American bases in those countries, damaging gas and oil facilities in those countries. Those are all key players in what's called the petrodollar system. The fact that for many years oil was priced in dollars, requiring everybody anywhere in the world to have dollars, wonderful for our country, because everybody has to get their hands on dollars. And if they have dollars and hold them, the nicest way to hold them is to lend them to the American government, because you get interest when you hold your dollar that way. Well, let me just give you a footnote as a strategist. If the United States had had to fight the wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, or anywhere else with money taxed from the American people to pay for the war, the opposition to those wars would have been greater than anything we can imagine, for obvious reasons. Instead, the whole world lent us the money with which we could fight those wars without taxing our people. We could use the borrowed money. And if you want to really understand the craziness of this, the Chinese, who are major lenders to the United States because they sell us so much stuff and get so many dollars that they then hold as treasury securities, that the Chinese government on the other side of every one of those wars was helping the US Pay for the war against which the Chinese were fighting. But the craziness of our global economic system makes those things happen. And right now, they are happening to diminish the standing of the dollar. And while it hasn't yet hit us, it will. And if you want a taste of where it's going, then you just have to look at Europe. Europe is a kind of basket case now of where we are going. We're not yet there. We have advantages in this country the Europeans don't have, but the Europeans. This morning's headlines all over Great Britain are that the cost of living is literally out of control. It's as if you showed those statistics you had in front of us a few moments ago, but it covered many, many more commodities than gasoline, and it together was really hurting the standard of living of the mass of the British people.
- [57:31]
Saagar Enjeti
So let's talk a little bit about who is going to cry uncle here, because right now, the Iran war, war is predominantly being engaged as economic warfare. There are some indications this morning we may be going back to hot kinetic warfare, but as of right now, it's predominantly economic warfare. Could put this next element up on the screen. This is gas prices. This is the way most Americans will interact with the war. This is from a little while ago. Now the gas price is up a little bit more. It's at 4. 46 for the national average. And so the bet from Trump is that if they can enforce this blockade against Iran, that's going to curtail their oil exports, that their economy is really going to struggle. They've been fed this line that their oil wells are going to explode and they're going to run out of storage capacity. Very quickly. And then it's going to be a big problem for the Iranians and that the U.S. although consumers don't want to pay these prices at the pump, will be able to withstand the economic pressure longer and that it will be less of a problem for the US to deal with than the Iranians. What can you tell us about your assessment of those dynamics?
- [58:37]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
Well, you know, it's a little bit like a problem I had teaching mathematics. The odds are that there's an immense array of possible outcomes. I mean, the more we use our imaginations, we human beings, the more we can foresee it could go this way, it could go that way. And all of that's true. But the job of the brain is to try to focus in on what are the most likely because you can't prepare for everything and you have to make choices. And so you do. We live in a country whose leadership I'm talking now about the Trump people, has been systematically hostile to other forms of energy and systematically favoring oil, fossil fuels, gas, all of that. The problem is when you do that and you then give to places like Iran a weapon they didn't have before, you really can't be claiming surprise if they use the weapon. They knew, like everybody did, that a quarter of the world's oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz. They can't possibly fight the United States on a military basis. They're an infinitely poorer country, not to mention smaller and all the rest. So they either have to come up with some other kind of weapon or they're not going to be able to pull off anything in this situation. They'll have to do what Mr. Trump said. They figured it out. He emphasizes oil and gas and they can control effectively the price of that. And so what we're seeing is the screaming of all those in America who thought they had a big friend in Mr. Trump because he tilted in their direction their kind of energy, their commodity, the gas burning automobile that uses it and so forth, forth, not imagining failure of imagination, what kind of vulnerability goes with that? And they have now learned. And then what is Mr. Trump going to do? He can't deny that he favored the very energy source that is now being priced out of everybody's range. He's going to tell a story about something that might happen in the future to turn a shortage of oil into a glut. Is that possible? Yes. Is that likely? No. No. And if you had half of a brain really working at this, you wouldn't take that chance. You wouldn't lopsidedly go to one in the hopes that it would self correct. And let me warn you, if you're going to play that game, here's something to worry about. A few days ago the United Arab Emirates, fourth largest source of oil that we have on this planet, withdrew from opec. Stopped working as it has for decades with the Saudi Arabian run cartel of that part of the world's oil now long story short. Why? Why? Because they don't like being held back. They have a lot of oil, they don't pull it up, they don't sell it. Because Saudi Arabia holds back oil from what we could have to drive up the price. Because they sell that they're just doing what every monopolist ever did in the history of the world. Nothing new, nothing strange, nothing exceptional. And by the way, with the active support of the United States, which of course doesn't say that to its own people because otherwise your upset at high gas prices would go to Washington rather than to foreigners upon whom it can be lopped. What does the United Arab Emirates want? It wants to bring up the roughly one and a half to 2 million barrels of oil per day that it could bring up, but hasn't been because it has to repair the damage Iran has done to their oil facilities, to the American bases there. The damage of the missiles from Iran is very significant, as it is in Israel. And we can keep pretending that it isn't the case, but the world is too small for that. You can find it out if you do a little bit of effort. So here's my story. United Arab Emirates will succeed and they won't be the only one. And we might very well see the glut that that clip you just showed implies. But that's not altogether good news either because then the price of oil will collapse. And if it does, 30, $25 a barrel instead of what we see now, then all of the fracking in the Midwest of this country will stop and they'll all be out of business. And if you think that's not a problem, you're making a mistake. Because all of that depends on bank loans. They will not be able to repay them and then our banks will be in a problem. We are keep using up every angle we can in this ad hoc government by Mr. Trump and it's gonna come sooner or later. He won't be able to patch it here, here and here. And then it'll blow, but it could blow anywhere. But at this point the mistake was ever in my judgment to overdo the dependence on fossil fuel. What is that about? The whole world is going in the other direction. We're not the top dog anymore. We don't run the world economy. That's a fantasy of the second half of the 20th century. That's not what we have anymore. I regret it. You regret it. We all, as Americans are having to live with, with what I just said, and that's hard. My heart really goes out to people. But denying it is not a rational way of coping with this. Then what you do is you get the fantasy of the British. If I can be so unfriendly, you know, they know that their empire is gone. They're just playing at it. That's why they have a king and why he visits and all the rest of it. I don't want to be mean. We don't do that to our credit. But there's a denial here that the British can no longer, or the French or they know it's over. We still think we are, and we therefore make decisions on an assumption basis that then comes back and whacks us. And that's what we're experiencing now.
- [65:59]
Krystal Ball
Well said, sir. We appreciate your time and your analysis. You're always dropping knowledge bombs.
- [66:03]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
All right. I hope so. I hope you find it interesting and I appreciate it and I speak for many of my friends. All the work that you do on your program.
- [66:12]
Saagar Enjeti
Thank you.
- [66:12]
Krystal Ball
That's extremely kind.
- [66:13]
Saagar Enjeti
That means great to see you.
- [66:16]
Krystal Ball
Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. We will see you all tomorrow. And we're about to do the AMA.
- [66:28]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
Foreign.
- [66:35]
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- [67:48]
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- [68:20]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
M&M's popped caramel do sound different. Oh, no. People are gonna be obsessed. What do you mean?
- [68:27]
Krystal Ball
People hate the sound of chewing.
- [68:30]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
Maybe they won't like the crunch. Maybe we're saved. Wait a minute. Yellow.
- [68:37]
Krystal Ball
Have you been eating them this whole time?
- [68:40]
Ad Read Host
Mmm. So tasty.
- [68:43]
Krystal Ball
Hands off us.
- [68:45]
Guest or Secondary Commentator
M&M's popped caramel.
- [68:46]
Ad Read Host
It's more fun together.
- [68:48]
Saagar Enjeti
This is an I heart podcast. Guaranteed human.