← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
5/7/26: Saudis Turn On Trump Over Project Freedom, Trump Says $8 Gas Is Worth It For Iran War
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Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.
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We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning, everybody. Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What are we, Crystal?
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D
Indeed we do. Some pretty fascinating revelations. So Trump was apparently forced to back off of quote, unquote, Operation Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait both said you cannot use our countries for your military maneuver. So pretty stunning revelations there. We'll take you through the very latest. Of course, in terms of the Iran war, Trump is also out saying that even $200 a barrel would be worth it for all of the glorious things that are being achieved in this insane war. A billionaire says that tax the rich is equivalent to basically the N word or other racial slurs. So that's quite a take there.
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C
Oh, and river to the sea.
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D
And we'll get to that. Yes, exactly. It's just as bad as calling for Palestinian freedom. In his view, an alleged Epstein suicide note has been released. We told you last week about the existence of this note. Now it has been made public. You can see for yourself and judge what you make of it. Glenn Greenwald is going to join us to talk about the ADL's new antisemitism report and really reflect on his own status as a self hating Jew. And we also have him on to talk about a horrifically cruel bill that just passed the House that would require all pigs who are being raised for human consumption to live in crates that are so small they can't even turn around undercutting state legislation that has been passed to try to avoid exactly that fate. So he's always a great animal rights activist or advocate and has been really following these stories and a couple other ones as well.
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C
Something I've always respected about Glenn and excited for him to educate us in particular on that topic. Thank you to everybody who's been subscribing to the show. BreakingPoint.com if you can support us. If you're listening to this on YouTube, please just go ahead and hit subscribe. And if you're listening as a podcast, please share an episode with a friend and rate us 5 stars. It really helps other people find the show. But as Krystal said, let's go and start with that blockbuster news out of Saudi Arabia. Let's put this up here on the screen. Trump's abrupt U turn on the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies. Saudi Arabia, a key Gulf ally, suspended the US Military's ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation. Trump's abrupt reversal came specifically on on Project Freedom on Sunday afternoon. Now, initially the market and others thought that this was a sign or sorry, the announcement of Project Freedom only for two days later to back off of it. Now the abrupt dismissal was initially thought by the market, by us and others as wow, so talks with the Iranians must be really, really serious. This must be progressing in a very good direction. Cause why else would you call off an operation which 24 hours before the Secretary of Defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs were announcing in their bluster and in all their glo. Well, it turns out that in a call between Trump and the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the issue not only was not resolved, but the KSA stood their ground. And the reasoning behind it is that they said they would not allow the military to fly aircraft from the Prince Sultan Air Base southeast of Riyadh or fly through any Saudi airspace to support the effort. We Also need to shout out Ryan Grimm, who reported and apparently had the story. He was sitting on it. He didn't get there just fast enough to the issue. But what he found out was that Kuwait also had told the US that they cannot use their airspace or their bases to conduct the operation. And obviously this is proof beyond any measure that the Iranian policy of horizontal escalation and of punishing Gulf allies has been tremendously successful. Because what the Saudis, the Kuwaitis saw was with the announcement of Project Freedom, the immediate targeting of Fujairah oil plant in the uae, the only one which they're able to export oil from outside of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia sits in terror at attacks on the east west pipeline and the Yanbu oil facility, which is in the Red Sea. In addition to Houthis, which remember, did not ever join the war, even with shutting out the entire Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, we got the news, has not exported a single barrel of oil in 30 days. I mean, look, they have plenty of money, but nobody has that much money to sustain your economy in a total 30 day shutdown of the vast amount of your import. So these two things combined show actually much less confidence, I think, in any of these talks that are allegedly happening between Iran and Washington, and instead a curtailing and a really humiliation of the American empire. Because what we've also seen is not only now a rejection of these US Traditional allies, the Gulf and Kuwait, but we've been unable to protect them sufficiently that they feel okay with letting us that. And also the fact that we have our aircraft carriers and others outside of range of Iranian drones and missiles. But that means that you are very reliant on these ground air refueling and many of these bases and others, they took tremendous damage throughout the war, which we also have some images of, which we'll show people later in the show.
- [06:51]
D
This is a wild insight into the real dynamics that underpin this war. It also really calls into question for me those reports that Saudi was alongside Israel, also pushing for this war to start. It's still possible that they were and just didn't realize how extreme the backlog would be. But I think this undercuts some of this notion that Saudi Arabia has been a real cheerleader. There was also some reporting that while the UAE was being really hurt economically, Saudi Arabia had actually been able to export enough oil and with the premium that they were actually making money. But if you look at the overall dynamics and you know how significant of a change this is going to be in the region With Iran gaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, you could see that Iran's power in the region and globally is rising. And since Saudi is a primary rival of Iran, especially regionally, this is, this ended up being a disaster for them as well. But for them and Kuwait to come to us and say your little Project Freedom thing that you didn't apparently bother to greenlight with us, no, we're not doing it. That is a stunning rebuke. And Iran has said since the beginning of this war, and really before that as well, but really credibly since the beginning of this war, has said that one of their goals is US Withdrawal from the region and especially from Saudi Arabia, because the presence of US army in the Holy Land for them is a particular issue of concern. But in any case, that seemed so fanciful at the beginning of this war and now between Saudi Kuwait saying, this is a problem for us, we don't want you operating from our soil. And when you combine that with the fact that our bases have been basically obliterated in the region, it no longer seems like such an incredibly preposterous or far fetched outcome. We have yet another report. In fact, I'm not sure what element this is. I think it's a 7 all the way at the bottom that we can put on the screen. This is yet another report, this one from the Washington Post about how many more U.S. military assets were hit then reported. This is again, according to satellite images. CNN had a report previously. There was another one, I think maybe NBC News before that, that talked about the number of bases that had been hit. We could tell anecdotally, because the soldiers had to be removed from the bases and housed in civilian hotels, that probably saved a lot of lives. Actually, the fact that they were evacuated off of these bases because apparently these bases were just hit with extraordinary precision at a level that the US Military was never able to anticipate. So when you add that together with the Saudis and the Kuwaitis saying, no, we're done here, and there was also some indication that the Omanis were maybe not too psyched about what was going on either. And Trump having to completely change his entire approach at a moment's notice after Hegseth and Dan Cain and Rubio had all gone out and done press briefings to tout Project Freedom, that he had to make that U turn because he no longer had cooperation from his allies in the region, that's pretty devastating.
- [09:48]
C
Yeah. Can we go back to those bases? I believe we have some more images. Just because they're so shocking, I think, in nature. If we can go and put them up there on the screen from a 7 and if we can edit some of these later in post. But what you can actually see is that the Iranians had originally released some images. What they then did is they used satellite imagery later on to verify them. Now, these actually satellite images are only from March 8, so almost two months old in some cases to even show you what the damage is. But what you see is that the vast majority, let's say in one case, of fuel bladders which were stored in Kuwait, were damaged. And the images that I'm looking at, it's almost all of them. Yeah, you can see them actually in the bottom right corner. Right. And so the next one, what you're all seeing are individual parts of bases where you can see tremendous amounts of damage, either to the roof, to airfields, to fuel storage areas, to airplane hangars. And what this demonstrates also is why the US was so reliant even thus far, just on these bases, because they still need these. Because the aircraft carriers and others are so far away that they're not able to support the bombing mission in the way that they want. And Project Freedom, make no mistake, we've talked about the blockade and others. This takes a tremendous amount of energy and military resources. Just to give you an example, let's put a one up there on the screen. Just yesterday, as all the talks were apparently getting good, the Central Command released this. The US Forces disabled a vessel in the Gulf of Oman attempting to violate the blockade. They said U.S. forces operating in the Gulf enforced blockade measures by enabling an Iranian flagged unladen oil tanker which was attempting to sail toward an Iranian port. CENTCOM said that they saw this ship called the Hasna, as it transited international waters to the port, Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. American forces then issued multiple warnings and informed the flag vessel it was in violation of a blockade. After the crew failed to comply with forces disabled the tanker's rudder, firing several rounds from a 20 millimeter cannon gun on a US Navy FA18 Super Hornet, which was launched from the USS Abraham Lincoln. So just again, to keep in mind, like, how much military asset this is taking, you need helicopters, you need planes, you need constant surveillance. You need all of these ships that are there. This is why in the old days people would often talk about no fly zones. You'll remember. And it's like, oh, it's just so simple. It's like, oh, is it that simple? Or do you need to have aircraft circling in place 24 hours a day. It's crazy expensive.
- [12:24]
D
Well, and this introduces another factor and another consideration for Trump if he, in terms of the options that he's evaluating here for Iran. Cuz we hadn't really considered that the Gulf allies may pull the plug and we really can't continue to prosecute a war or even the economic blockade fully without their support. And I think another important thing that happened was these strikes on the uae. Now there are some questions about whether that was Iran. Iran says it wasn't them. Even the UAE seems to be unsure whether it was Iran or whether it was Saudi. There's some possibility that the UAE had struck Saudis oil infrastructure and Saudis struck them in retaliation. Unclear whether that's happened or not. But what we do know is that UAE was struck in very sensitive ways with a significant missile and drone barrage. And what did the US do? We were like, that's no big deal. Yeah, don't worry about it. So what message does that send to which I'm glad they did, you know, I'm glad it didn't lead to a gigantic escalation. But if you're the Saudis and you're looking at this, you're like, wait, what do you mean no big deal? What do you mean? Yes, like they're targeting their most critical oil infrastructure that their entire economy is based on. UAE is so screwed right now. Dubai, the hotel reservation rate is 10, prior to the war it was 80%. And our reaction is no biggie, deal with it. This isn't even a ceasefire violation. So of course they're looking at this and going, wait a second, what have we signed ourselves up for? And this changes the entire calculation, not only in the region, but around the world of countries that host our bases and used to, and saw them prior to this moment as being an advantage, as being, oh, this is going to protect us. Now that calculus has completely flipped. Now they will hang us out to dry and this makes us a target. So that's one of the reasons why this is so significant too in terms of the options that are available to Trump. He has a, I mean he really doesn't even have a political horizon at this point because the war is so incredibly unpopular. Gas prices are way too high. You know, people here are very sensitive to that. He's got the midterms looming, et cetera. You've got these. So you've got a very small at best political horizon here. You've got the economic noose tightening every day and you've got the military armaments limitations just in terms of the Interceptors and the Tomahawks and all of that sort of thing. And now you introduce another limiting factor, which is whether or not your allies are going to continue to cooperate with you. And as I said before, you really can't do any of this without their assistance and support.
- [14:55]
C
No, not at all.
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- [17:01]
C
Let's continue. A two up there on the screen. Just a little bit of update on the talk. So what we know so far is there were these leaked details around what some sort of memorandum of understanding with Iran may look like. So let me go ahead and read them. Details around the length of any suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment or possible removal remain unresolved and are expected to complicate any future talks. Now what the plan seems to be is it would be a 14 point memorandum of understanding, which if you're familiar with the League of Nations is kind of not exactly a good reminder of where things went with that one. It says during the 30 days of talks there would be easing a chokehold on the Straits of Hormuz by Iran and easing of the blockade by the US So like a bilateral easing, if you will, the two sides are then working on details to halt enrichment of uranium. The US Wants clauses that would prolong a moratorium on Iranian enrichment if Tehran wants to violate the deal. One idea is to halt enrichment for 12 to 15 years before then allowing Iran to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity compared with the current stockpile, enriched up to 60%, which puts it within the reach of the 90% enrichment needed to fuel a nuclear weapon. Now the sticking point remains on this nuclear fuel. Let's put a three up there on the screen. Uranium. Trump says the United States will get the uranium from Iran. One of Trump, and he said this to a couple of reporters, quote, we're just going to get it. Now the thing is, is that what the US Wants out of Iran is they want them to unilaterally give them the enrichment, basically allow our people on the ground take it out and bring it back here. The Iranians are like, no, that's not gonna happen. We can down blend it or we can give it to Russia. Maybe in the worst case scenario we'll give it to Russia and then international inspectors can go to Russia and then they can go there and then come to our places to check it out. But what they're basically saying absolutely not to, is that we're going to get it. Now I don't know how much of this is bluster or not, but it remains the key sticking point. But just zoom out a little bit. This is called the jcpoa, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, AKA the Iran deal, which was they give up Nuclear enrichment or some amount of nuclear enrichment for 10 to 15. I forget what the original terms were, it's been so long at this point. And then in exchange they get sanctions relief, which is basically what the US has been allowed to do, except this time we vaporized, oh, I don't know, $50 billion probably, and the regime is stronger and we get to sign a deal with them which gives them some de facto control of the Straits of Hormuz at the very least. Look, even if they charge nothing, the fact that they have the credible deterrence now of like, we can shut this shit down anytime that we want is gonna give you some leverage, you know, in the future negotiations. So yeah, I've been trying to come up with a good moniker of like the Trump All Comprehensive. Trump All Comprehensive organization that works out to Taco. But so if you can help me come up with a good acronym for that. It's like those bill drafters who do like the Trump act. And I need to call one of my friends in Congress.
- [20:18]
D
Yeah.
- [20:18]
C
So anyway, commenters, if you can help me try and work Taco into a JCPOA thing. If you do it, I don't know, we'll give you a free premium membership or something.
- [20:25]
D
Yeah, it's JCPOA plus incredible increase in Iranian power and degradation of our own standing in the world and a lot of money spent for what? Yeah, amazing job here. And to your point, let's put a 5 up on the screen. This is Iran right after, you know, we get this information, oh, we're close to a deal, blah, blah, blah. The Barack Ravid, you know, market moving report right after that, publishes Iran introduces this new email based permit system for the Strait of Hormoons. They like stood up this website that like, okay, here's our, here's our process, here's the way this is gonna work going forward. So the notion that they're going to just let go of this control that they've been able to achieve with relative ease too, by the way. All it took really was just a threat because these are commercial ships. They're not going to take the risk of any sort of significant damage to them or transiting through a war zone, et cetera. They have not only their corporate bosses, you've got the insurance landscape that is not going to ensure tankers to go through a war zone. So in any case, they put this up like, okay, well this is our new reality. So look, I do think that there are negotiations going back and forth, there are different drafts that are being exchanged. Are we At a point where Trump is willing to accept the level of concessions and frankly, codify the level of humiliation for the US that has been achieved. The real achievement of this war. Is he at this place? I don't know. It's hard to see. Hard to see.
- [21:58]
C
I don't see it yet. I also just think with the Israel part of all of this, you just can't underestimate that. Let's go and put a six up there on the screen. The Israelis, by their own admission, proudly bombed Beirut in the first attack on the Capitol in weeks. According to them, they hit a terrorist, Hezbollah commander. I mean, I don't know, you could check Hezbollah and see if they confirmed that or not. But that, I mean, Ryan made the joke, this is how you know that the talks are serious, is that they're back to bombing the middle ground.
- [22:27]
D
The Israelis are trying to destroy them.
- [22:29]
C
Yeah, it's very possible. I mean, you know, they're staying pretty quiet right now. The Israelis, I think they don't wanna be seen by immediately killing the deal in Trump's eyes, only subtly trying to target it behind the scenes. I mean, their allies here in Washington are going crazy. Like, if you look at the John Ponheraditz, John Potter Harris and the Hugh Hewitt's of the world. Hugh Hewitt literally interviewed Trump, what, like on Monday? No, sorry, on Tuesday.
- [22:55]
D
Oh, did he?
- [22:56]
C
I didn't realize that he did this. Look at great come out of it. He interviewed Trump on Tuesday. By Wednesday, he was like, this is a horrible deal. I'm gonna be having John Pot Harris on my show to talk about why it's so horrible. So, I mean, there's. When I see people like that freaking out, I'm a little optimistic that something might happen. But they also signpost at everything. They chimp out anytime that they need to because in general, they have a good track record of working. And, you know, Lindsey Graham and Mark Levin and these people are all up in Trump's ear. Not to mention, you know, with the Iranians, it's very hard to get a picture of what they're up to. They have a lot of bluster. Golubov put something out yesterday where he's like, this is all bs going after Axios. That said, they said all that last time before the ceasefire, and then they did agree to a ceasefire. So I don't know their government, I can't really figure it out. The IRGC is constantly saying that they're gonna be attacking. They're doing all this, and their foreign minister and their speaker of the parliament, they genuinely do seem to want some sort of a deal. So I don't fully buy the US Line about how they're totally divided, but it would be somewhat expected if you're going to lead the highly, you know, if you're going to kill the highly respected leader of the country to have some sort of factionalization break out with various different interests. I don't know what their strategy remains and, or is. And I think it'd be very hard to get to a point where they're actually going to just give up all the uranium fuel. It would shock me.
- [24:18]
D
Yeah. Actually, I don't think that's likely. The thing that argues in favor of a deal is simply Trump running out of other options. You know, I mean, he's. The piece about Saudi Arabia and Kuwait I think is very significant in that regard. The economic piece, the political piece, the munitions piece, you're going to bomb Carg island, like, what is that going to do? Absolutely nothing. It's not going to change any of the dynamics at all. There's no air campaign that's going to solve it. You've already seen, you got sold a bill of goods on this economic blockade. I mean, you know, all these pieces coming out, it's just 14 days and their oil wells are going to explode. And this was all analysis from ftd, which is extremely hawkish, extremely pro Israel think tank. The insanity of taking a guy from there, by the way, and putting it on the negotiating team, that pushes in the other direction of hard to see how this all works. Although they aren't doing in person negotiations, obviously at this point, but it seems like that would be required at some point if we're actually going to bring the war to a close. So in any case, I think that would be the dynamic that would push this to some sort of a conclusion is simply the fact that Trump really has no options left than to take it on the chin, have to realize the gains that the Iranians have made at our expense and at the expense of all of our regional allies to include Israel, and try his best to sell some victory narrative and hope that the media cycle moves so quickly and we all have the brains of goldfish that we'll forget all about it by the time the midterms roll around. That really is his best bet at this point.
- [25:43]
C
It's funny, it's kind of like what Dave said. He's like, if I wanted to play the game, I'd be, oh, you know you, only you, yeah, would have the courage. I'm just Like, I can't do it.
- [25:52]
D
The joke he does.
- [25:53]
C
Yeah, I can't do it. I just, I have at this point. I just, I've seen, I've seen too much. I just don't really care, you know, anymore. And I've seen that that strategy has backfired so many times for people who are trusting the plan, I'm just like, okay, man, you know, I just have some dignity.
- [26:11]
D
Yeah.
- [26:12]
C
At a certain respect.
- [26:12]
D
It was crazy, though, to see Hugh Hewitt, to your point, about, like, the fit that they're all throwing, which is also, is a positive sign, but also shows you the perils of all of this stuff because those people are unfortunately incredibly influential for whatever reason. But any case, he came out and said the quiet part out loud and was like, yeah, it's in Israel's interest
- [26:29]
C
to blow up these situations.
- [26:30]
D
I saw it.
- [26:30]
C
Yeah, it's amazing.
- [26:31]
D
It's like, I mean, he's right. In terms of the way they perceive the landscape, they always think they're one more bombing campaign away from, you know, peace and victory and can never coexist with anyone, etc. So from their perspective, that's absolutely the case. And then you see them, oh, look, more strikes in Lebanon. What do you. What do you know?
- [26:47]
C
Shocker.
- [26:48]
D
Yeah.
- [26:48]
C
All right.
- [26:49]
D
Yeah, let's go ahead and get to that.
- [26:51]
B
It never happens at a good time. The pipe bursts at midnight. The heater quits on the coldest night. Suddenly you're overwhelmed. That's when home serve is here for $4.99 a month. You're never alone. Just call their 24. 7 hotline and a local pro is all on the way. Trusted by millions, HomeServe delivers peace of mind when you need it most. For plans Starting at just $4.99 a month, go to homeserve.com that's homeserve.com not available everywhere. Most plans range between 499 to $11.99 a month. Your first year terms apply on covered repairs.
- [27:22]
E
Support for the show comes from public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt from from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures this
- [28:22]
F
is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive, and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting. All linked and talking to each other. Check out Odoo at o D O O.com that's O-O-O.com
- [29:09]
D
so meanwhile, obviously the impact at the pump is looms large for Americans here. Oil prices are down somewhat from their peak over these idea of maybe there's talks going on, maybe there's some sort of an end to this war in sight, et cetera. But Trump says, hey, even if oil were to go up to $200 a barrel, which would equate to what at the gas pump? Sagar, do you think 200?
- [29:30]
C
Yes, it's about seven, eight dollars. It would be about nine dollars a gallon in California.
- [29:34]
D
Yeah. So there you go. So he says that, that even that if that were to happen, which is still very much possibility on the table, it would be worth it. Let's take a listen to that 20% and we're up.
- [29:44]
F
The stock market's higher now than when
- [29:46]
C
we started this war. And I thought oil prices would go to 200, $250. It's at $100, man. And I think you're surprised and I'm surprised. But even if it went to 200,
- [29:58]
D
it would have been worth it. It would be worth it even if it went to $200 a barrel. I have a feeling that most Americans do not agree with that, given the fact that polling has Shown from the beginning of this war, opposition to this war.
- [30:11]
C
It is. You know, the market thing though, that's the part that bugs me the most. I mean, look, I'm not happy that the market hasn't crashed for personal reasons, but for everybody's reasons. Because obviously that would lead to like mass layoffs if it were to happen. But it is crazy how much AI has saved this man. It's nuts. Like, the only reason that the market is continuing to rip the way that it is is because AMD and Intel and Micron and SanDisk and companies like this are just ripping and they're the ones that are just powering the S&P 500 forward. But for me, the disconnect between consumer sentiment and for where things are today, like with the stock market, it's just, I don't know, I think politicians need to delete it from their brain entirely. Like, the truth is, is yes, Many Americans have 401k. Most aren't being able to tap it unless they're old. And in the immediate term, shit's too expensive. Just period, end of story. But for some reason people still worship the market as if it's some sign of the economy. It just couldn't be more, couldn't be farther from the truth at this point.
- [31:15]
D
Absolutely the case. And then to show you also the lengths they have to go to like the torturing of logic and rationality that they have to go to at this point to justify this war as any sort of positive, let's take a listen to Secretary of State Marco Rubio yesterday in his comments about how much worse things could have been.
- [31:35]
G
Everybody needs to think about it this way. If Iran had a nuclear weapon and they decided to close the Straits and make our gas prices like $9 a gallon or $8 a gallon, we wouldn't be able to do anything about it because they have a nuclear weapon and a nuclear armed Iran could do whatever the hell they want with the Straits and there's nothing anyone would be able to do about it. And that's one of the many reasons, apart from like the massive loss of life in a nuclear strike, why Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.
- [32:00]
D
To state the obvious here, Sagar, they don't have a nuclear weapon and they still were able to close the Strait of Hormuz and there was nothing we can do about it.
- [32:07]
C
Yeah, Oops. Yeah, a little bit of, I mean this is classic Iraq War, Iraq war ideology. We don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud, right? Like, oh well, we don't want this hypothetical bad thing to happen. So we have to do this really, really awful thing in the immediate future. It's just ridiculous. And, you know, at this point, like, what have we really proven? Yes, they were able to close the Straits of Hormuz not only with no nukes, but with $20,000 drones and a bunch of speedboats because they studied our military and they said these are the various holes that they have in them. And when the time comes, this is what we're going to do. But this is again, the tortured logic that you have to twist yourselves into knots to try to justify this. This will hit with absolutely nobody. $9 of gas would be worth it if they had a nuclear weapon. Well, we're already at 450 or something like that. And the only reason that it would go lower is in any way has nothing to do with whether Iran gives up a nu or whether we cry uncle and say, okay, let's go ahead and re sign some sort of fake JCPOA agreement. That's it. That's the only reason gas will go down.
- [33:13]
D
Well, it turns out they did have a nuclear weapon. It was called the Strait of Hormuz, and it's a very effective deterrent.
- [33:18]
C
Economic. No, don't give them more talking points because they're going to use that, the economic nuke. Actually, I'm pretty sure they have said it.
- [33:24]
D
You're probably right, but it's true. I mean, in terms of acting as an effective deterrent, it is, yes, that is. I mean, and that's effectively what, you know, nuclear weapons, so long as they aren't used, that's what they serve as. They serve as a deterrent. That's what North Korea is up to and why that government still exists. And we don't even talk about going in and really messing with them. So they have that now. They've demonstrated that they have that tool in their toolkit. And that is really fundamentally what has changed all of the dynamics here. You know, we're also learning a lot, I think, as a country about the oil markets and how this all works. So we can put V3 up on the screen because there is one group here in the US that is very much benefiting from this. Actually, there's a few groups, but one of them is the oil companies. Oil executives. They are seeing record sales at a premium price. This is all oil. That is, we are now a net exporter of oil. And if you are a major shareholder in, let's say, ExxonMobil, that's great news for you. If you're a regular American who's paying the price to at the pump, not such great news. And this is why this rhetoric from Trump about how we have plenty of oil so we don't even need the Strait of Hormuz. This is for other people who use the straight of Hormuz. Why this has always been a fantasy and really belies the reality of a global commodities market where our oil here is going to chase the highest price around the world. So as the Asian economies suffer because they do pull more, more of their oil from the Middle east, well, guess what, they bid up prices and our oil is going to flow to them and that's going to increase our prices as well. That is the way a global market works. So, no, we are not protected from the oil shock of this war. Not at all. In fact, there have been analyses that second to Asia, our increase in gas prices has been the most in the entire world.
- [35:17]
C
And that's exactly why is because our inventories are going way down. You know, and that's something I really learned from Rory. And this is. This is such an indictment of the Trump administration, honestly, not even them, of everybody who's talked about energy independence over the last 25 years. Cause how often have you and I heard that line, we are an energy net exporter. What I didn't understand, though, is that our own infrastructure is set up for said global market, is that we have many refineries which can't even refine our own oil. Is that a lot of it is set to refine other people's oil. Or let's say the refineries in Asia or others, you know, refineries. It's not like oil is one thing. There's all these different types of oil. Again, I've had to learn heavy crude, sweet crude, light sweet crude, whatever. So all of these different things have different refineries which are set up to refine them. Well, it turns out, you know, here in the United States, that this whole idea of just pumping oil out of the ground and we can just refine it easily. No, we haven't built a new oil refinery in this country since the 1970s. Literally, they're piece of shit. Aging technology compared to China. Those Chinese are called like the teapot refineries. I've been looking into them. Fascinating in terms of the way that they've been able to prop up this entire new different thing. They're much more flexible. They're actually built in order to evade also U.S. sanctions. Those are the companies which they told just ignore US Sanctions for the first time in their own history. But the point is that we never actually planned for a Russia style scenario, even though it was easily foreseeable where when Russia got cut off from the global market, everybody, including me, I was like, they're dead, they're dead. Guess what? They are booming in terms of their ability to refine oil. Now, to the extent that it's been hit, it's because the Ukrainians are putting drones in it, but it's not because they were cut off by the rest of the world. Same in terms of their defense industrial base. They're able to manufacture bullets and guns. If you can do bullets, guns and oils, then you're good. In this world, at the end of the day, it's like a fail safe, but we just don't learn. And this is actually a very interesting clip that played, I think it was at the Milken Institute conference, which is like, you know, one of those Davos Light organizations, which is happening right now. And in it, what you have is a analyst, Jeff Curry, who is from Carlisle, actually talking about oil storage tanks and how he believes that they're going to run empty right around July 4th. Let's take a listen.
- [37:39]
D
When do storage tanks run empty?
- [37:42]
G
Parts of the world like Australia, Philippines, Thailand, you are. But the question is when and where? You know, I still say that with you. You know, it's going to be, you know, sometime in the month of May that you're going to end up with Europe hitting tank bottoms. And in the US it's somewhere in that July 4th time period, if not sooner. By the way, the inventories number coming out of the US the ones we got last night, the ones last week, I've never seen anything like that before. And I think that it's important to remember that these inventory numbers, let's define terms a deficit versus a shortage. We have a deficit today, meaning that demand is above supply and we're drawing inventories. It's not a shortage yet. So to answer your question, you have the shortages in places like Asia and it's not that bad yet because you're not completely at tank bottoms. But in places like Europe and the United States, you're in a deficit. And you don't hit the shortages until you hit tank bottoms, right?
- [38:43]
C
So I think that's a very insightful point, is that we had all these storage tanks, but over the last two months we've been shipping it all to Asia, Mexico, wherever, like everybody, every buyer in the world. So they're bidding up the price. But when the tanks run out. Then you have a physical shortage because you don't have any. You don't have a steady supply to be able to feed into the market. So you get whatever you pump. You're going to, you know, immediately ship out. That means that the price. I mean, that's why, you know, when you were talking about 200 a barrel, it's like, is there even a price if you just can't have gas? Like, it's not a price if you don't have gas. Right. And that's. I think that's like, not a completely out of the question scenario, let's say. I'm not saying, like, in New York City or some major population area. I'm talking about, like, Alaska or Hawaii, like something like that. But that's where it would first show up. They're really hard to reach places, but that's where it starts and then starts to creep in. Then you have the $8 gas, $9 gas. And maybe this sounds crazy, but these are energy analysts who are looking at this, and they're like, look, the inventory number. Rory as well, who we keep having on the show, they are laser focused on these inventory numbers because they know what he's saying about shortages and the impact that that will have on price. So. So what we're paying right now is nothing compared to what it looks like when you actually run dry. And then your production has to keep up with exactly what you're consuming in the moment. It makes sense for any business is you always want to have flex storage. You know, the entire oil market has been predicated on this storage ability. That's why these tanks exist in the first place. And then also the prediction. I was literally just looking at this morning at satellite images coming out of Carg Island. Remember how they said the storage facilities weren't going to fill up? You can actually see the storage tanks where the lid is low in the ground. And it should be high in the ground if it's full. Lo and behold, you've got low tanks all over Kharg. So they haven't run out of oil storage, even though they told us that was gonna happen two weeks ago. Meanwhile, this guy who can read a spreadsheet released by the US government is like, yeah, July 4th. Anyone wanna tell me if July 4th's an important time to drive? Do people drive around then? I haven't checked recently here. Can you imagine barbecue season? You can't drive anywhere. People are gonna lose it.
- [40:55]
D
Well, and let's put this is before up on the screen from The New York Times, this is Tom and Joseph Smith, who does very good reporting over there on economics. Shout out to him. Higher gas prices are hitting lower income Americans hardest. I mean, that's obvious, but he goes into some of the details here. And lower income households already spent much more on gas than usual, but cut back on the amount of gasoline they bought by driving less or potentially by carpooling or substitute substituting to public transit where available. According to a new report, rich people haven't changed their consumption habits at all, but already consumption patterns have changed. This is demand destruction already happening among working class Americans. I really encourage you guys, if you didn't watch yesterday's show, listen to the woman that called into Emily's show and she said, I am a triple Trump voter. I will never, already, already today, I will never vote for a Republican again. That's what she said. Okay? She is so representative of so many people. Because people here in D.C. like Trump and all his billionaire cronies and all these people, they are so disconnected. They don't understand that for regular people, they don't have a cushion where it's like, oh, I just ride this out. Yeah, gas price a little bit higher, higher now, but it'll go down maybe by the midterms, maybe by next year it'll be fine. No, this means they aren't making it today. That is already not working for them today. Especially with this, so much of our economy being gig work and being like, you know, Uber drivers and they are
- [42:25]
C
getting, you imagine those guys completely screwed.
- [42:27]
D
Truckers are getting screwed, Uber drivers are getting screwed. Like anyone who has a significant commute, which by the way, is a lot of Americans because they have to live somewhere where they can afford the rent and then commute into a major city outside of New York City. Our public transit is complete trash. So it's like impossible in most places to even take a bus or a train or whatever to be able to get to work, avail yourself of some sort of public transit option. So people already today are getting so screwed and they are not going to forget. And there is no buffer between Trump's decision and what they're paying at the pumps. I mean, this is a point you made before. Like, at least with the Ukraine war was Russia that invaded and then we had to deal with the fallout. No, this was all us. The tariffs were all us. This is all us. The entire economic landscape is completely authored by Trump himself. And people know that.
- [43:20]
C
I continue to read about airfare, jet fuel, so it's up 30%. So jet fuel accounts for just 30% roughly, of airfare. Now, right now, literally just right now, as of a few days ago, the average domestic round trip flight was up to $358, which is 20%. That was before Spirit went bankrupt. International Airline was also up significantly in terms of the numbers. Now, anecdotally, I just saw somebody today saying that they paid $3,800 for a summer flight to London in. Not premium. Economy. Economy round trip ticket from the United States to London, which is great. I mean, what is that? A six hour flight from the East Coast? Like, that's really insane. That's. That should be. I mean, in my head, that's a premium economy fare. That's like a premium fare, not a basic economy fare. Then what you also have, what I was reading a little bit about here, is that in addition to raising ticket prices, Alaska, American, Delta, JetBlue, Southwest and United have all increased bag fees. So to also offset the ticket price. So what that means also you get a bet that that bag fee ever comes down again.
- [44:31]
D
Oh, of course.
- [44:31]
C
Yeah, right.
- [44:32]
D
Is this there?
- [44:32]
C
So the bag fee went up, but when jet fuel goes by half. Oh, I'm sure we'll still. I actually don't even know what the bag fee is. Oh, my God. Delta is $50 a bag. I mean, I never check a bag, but $50 a bag is wild. First and second. I can't even believe it. Like, that is so insane. First bag, 45 bucks. Second bag, 55. Third bag is 200. This is on Delta. Southwest Airlines also hiked its check bag fees from 35 to 45. And the second one goes from 45 to 55. And then United, American and all of
- [45:06]
D
these other taxes on women because we just require a lot more shoes. The hairdryer, the makeup, it takes up a lot of space.
- [45:14]
C
Okay, I know this is the pro. One of the biggest fights in my marriage, whatever I went on for 12 years, I didn't check a bag at all. And now, well, I guess with the baby, you just give up and you.
- [45:24]
D
Oh, yeah.
- [45:24]
C
There's no choice there. For me, it's that there's a scene in up in the Air. I'm sorry for the tangent. This is something I'm very passionate about. Is there's an up in the Air scene where he lectures that Anna Kendrick. I think it is George Clooney. And he's like, do you know how much time it takes to check a bag? And he's like 35 minutes on average. And he's like, at my level That's a week. And I has lived in my head since 2009 about the amount of time that you will lose in bag check. But I guess you just have to give up.
- [45:49]
D
Yeah, well, especially you travel less frequently.
- [45:51]
C
I know.
- [45:52]
D
So it doesn't add up to a week. So it's not as big. It is what it is. Okay, one more thing here. What was I going to go to? Oh, we have to talk about this. B7. So to add criminal insult to injury here, more insider trading. Right. As you know, this Axios report hits that, oh, a deal is imminent. It's, you know, the end of the war. Oh, lo and behold, you got someone who to the tune of $920 million shorted the oil market and was able to profit wildly. So this is the Kobez letter lays it out here. According to our analysis, about $920 million worth of crude oil shorts were taken 70 minutes before an Axios report claimed the US and Iran were near a 14 point deal to end the war. At 3:40am nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news occurring. That's equivalent to $920 million in notional value. Unusually large trade for 3:40am At 4:50am Just 70 minutes later, Axios publishes their report that the US is close to a memo of understanding to end the Iran war. By 7am Oil prices had fallen over 12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately $125 million. Minutes later, Iran launched the Persian Gul Strait authority and oil prices then surged another 8%. But still plenty of money made here before oil surged and didn't go back to the highs that it was at before. So I mean, this is like clockwork. You know, if it was one time you might say, oh well, maybe they just anticipated and they know the news usually comes out on Monday and they just got lucky. Right? This happens every time, whether it's tariff announcements, whether it's developments with the Iran war announcements. Every single time like clockwork. You look and you see that there is a someone who is front running the trade to the tune of millions of dollars. Could be someone in Trump's family, could be someone in the administration, could be someone in Axios who has access to this reporting before they press publish on their report. But this needs to be looked into because how disgusting, how criminal is it that while people are suffering because of this war and unable to make it in terms of their economic lives, unable to pay rent to, unable to pay the price at the pump to make it to Their jobs, unable to really keep it together. You have whoever these people are on the inside who are profiting to the tune of millions of dollars. It is hard to think of something more disgusting.
- [48:28]
C
Yeah, actually, it's so bad. Even the DOJ today. Let's put this up there on the screen in post. I sent it to our chat. Is now probing oil insider trades. 2.6 billion. And they actually summarize it in a way which is crazy. March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced he would delay threatened attacks. Traders bet 500 million. We covered that at the time that oil prices would fall. April 7, hours ahead of a temporary ceasefire. Traders bet 960 million that oil prices would fall. April 17, 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was open. Traders bet 760 million that oil would fall April 21. Four days later, 15 minutes before Trump announces he will extend the ceasefire. Traders place the bets. 430 million that oil prices would fall. And to be clear, I'm not accusing anyone at Axios of wrongdoing. However, you're Barack ravid. I was up whenever he put his story out. It was like, five in the morning, and I was like, okay, and so you're the overnight editor at Axios. What do you think that guy makes? Or girl? 35,040. All right, all right. So you're the overnight editor. You're probably, like, 23 years old. You read a lot of stories about insider trading or any of these other. Really, it's not a little tempting to
- [49:41]
D
be thinking, yeah, you're like, all these other people playing this game.
- [49:43]
C
And look, maybe they didn't even. Or maybe. And this happens in journalism all the time. When you have a big scoop, you brag about it. Right? To all of your friends. Yeah, you know, I have friends all the time. Hey, off the record, man, this is coming. Can't wait to see you guys cover it on the show. It literally happens, like, twice a week. Okay, well, what stops me from insider trading? Only my own ethics. But there's no regulatory body which is gonna come and define me also. Yeah, to be clear, I've literally never done. In fact, I remember thinking when I had a big scoop on the marijuana thing, that it was coming, that I spent all the time trying to confirm the story. And meanwhile, after it came out, I went back and looked at the charts, and the same news that had leaked to me had leaked to a bunch of other people. But they bought all the stock and they made, like, a killing. Like, I think it was like 33,000% or something. Some sort of shocking number that they were able to make on the trade. Meanwhile, I'm some idiot here being like, let me confirm the story but just to show you how my brain works, but that, I mean I can just see this level of, you know, it can leak out. You have somebody who brags to a friend or something and they know a trader in Singapore or some desk and I don't know, in London. Not that hard.
- [50:52]
D
No, you make a good point too though because that shows the cycle of moral degradation. Because if you are the person who got that leak and you see everybody else who is profiting off of it, next time you're gonna be like, I'm not gonna be the sucker here. You know, I mean that's how it happens. It's like everybody's doing it. I guess this is just what is done. And that's the way that you have like a massive cultural societal breakdown of any sort of ethics. So the same person makes a much shadier decision in the future. Not because they've changed personally or their morals have like, you know, their baseline has changed, but because of where society has moved. They now see it as like, oh, I guess this is just what we do.
- [51:29]
C
Exactly. And like I said, I'm just speculating but this was beaten into me at the very beginning of my career. It's like we don't do that. Right? That's other people. And so it doesn't cross my mind. But I could see how if you're 20 something years old and you're living here in this cesspool with polymarket and kalsheet and I mean everybody in this town knows somebody who's made some money on Polymarket or kalshi. Not necessarily in a nefarious way. Usually somebody being like I can't believe some idiot thinks that X is going to win in this race. I have some insider knowledge, I'm generally familiar with the situation. I'll throw some money on it. This has been happening for years with predict it and a few other things would especially pronounced. Now it's like you just said, that puts a moral rot into a system where generally people didn't do that. Now there's always been the, you know, the members of congress and others but at the staff and other level I don't really think it crossed a lot of people's minds at like a cultural phenomenon. But when you turn the news on every day and CNN is broadcasting Kalshi ads and who else somebody else has partnered with Polymarket I mean, even in the Journal, like I'm talking about the Wall Street Journal, you can read and you're looking at some of this stuff in there. You're like, I don't know, you normalize it and it becomes something where you can't trust anything, which is obviously bad. All right, let's move on to debt.
- [52:48]
F
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A
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H
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A
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