← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
6/18/26: Trump 180 On Iran, Ben Shapiro Attacks Vance, Deep State Fights Iran MOU
01:08:20
Loading summary
Transcript223 lines
- [00:00]
Podcast Advertiser
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Krystal Ball
Guaranteed Human. I turned off news altogether.
- [00:08]
Guest Commentator
I hate to say it, but I
- [00:09]
don't trust much of anything.
- [00:12]
It's the rage bait.
- [00:15]
Krystal Ball
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [00:19]
Saagar Enjeti
We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little.
- [00:25]
NBC News Announcer
NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.
- [00:34]
Starbucks Advertiser
What's up, y'?
- [00:35]
Pets Best Insurance Advertiser
All?
- [00:36]
Starbucks Advertiser
Summer's got a different tempo. Everything's a little looser, brighter. One plan turns into another. You hear something, you stay a little longer. Next thing you know, you're somewhere you didn't plan to be. It's those in between moments. That's where the ideas hit. Conversations stretch out. Little memories sneak up on you. Sometimes it's just about what's in your hand. That color, that chill. The new Tropical Butterfly refresher from Starbucks. Guava and passion fruit flavors with mango pineapple flavored pearls. Yeah, that feels like summer before you even taste it. Funny how one small stop becomes the best part of the day. Start your summer rhythm with Starbucks. Try the new Tropical Butterfly refresher from Starbucks.
- [01:23]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
Unlock the savings at Boost Mobile and save up to $600 a year. I've been scouting these big carriers for a minute now and I've seen them pull the same play a thousand times. They promise you the world, then hit you with a price hike right when the game gets t. But boost mobile, their $25 a month unlimited wireless plan is the most consistent player on the floor. No contracts, no price hikes. Unlock the Savings today@boostmobile.com Unlock based on average annual single line payment of AT&T Verizon and T Mobile customers compared to 12 months of the Boost Mobile unlimited wireless plan as of January 2026. For full offer details, visit boostmobile.com hey
- [01:54]
Saagar Enjeti
guys, Sager and Krystal here.
- [01:55]
Krystal Ball
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [02:02]
Saagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not anywhere else.
- [02:08]
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breaking points.com Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:19]
Saagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com Good morning everybody. Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have crystal.
- [02:31]
Krystal Ball
Indeed we do. The MoU with Iran has been signed in Versailles and Trump gave a wild press conference that we want to spend some time with. Said some very, very interesting things. That is part of why we are in day whatever. I don't know at this point of the complete Zio meltdown, but they have decided to train their ire on one man. That man is not Donald trump. It is J.D. vance. So that is an interesting political dynamic that we want to dig into. We're also really excited to be joined by the editor of Amwaj Media. They have had a number of really significant scoops over the course of the Iran war. And so we're going to dig into the details of this memo of understanding, what it says, what it doesn't say, what it in terms of the possibilities of war and peace going forward. So very much looking forward to that. Trump's new Fed chair has been part of the decision to keep rates the same in a significant announcement yesterday. Of course, Trump has been agitating aggressively for rates to be cut, so we'll see what he had to say on the matter. And the membership list of Peter Thiel's secret society has been leaked, as well as an eye brazing, eyebrow raising. Eye brazing, eye brazing eyebrow racing agenda for their next confab. So a lot of very influential, powerful names on both sides of the aisle that have been revealed as part of that exclusive club saga.
- [03:49]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, certainly. And maybe they'll meet next in Argentina, where he currently resides. Thank you to everybody who's been subscribing to the show breakingpoints.com to support us. Seriously, we deeply appreciate it. We've had so many new viewers who've been coming in and probably enjoying the Zionist meltdown with the rest of us. If you want to keep that up, breakingpoints.com support our work over here. If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our channel and listening to the podcast, please share an episode with a friend or rate us 5 stars. Helps other people find the show. But let's go ahead and start like you said, with the Memorandum of Understanding that has now been signed in Versailles. Here it is in all of its pomp and circumstance. Donald Trump there signing the Memorandum of Understanding in the hall.
- [04:32]
Krystal Ball
Used to be the Farsi version there.
- [04:35]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I think each. There's some Farsi, some English translation there as well. Everybody is clapping, surrounded by world leaders, the Secretary of State right behind him. And Macron leads two rounds of applause and cries of bravo as the document is signed. You know, I'll hold some of my historical commentary here on Versailles here for a moment, but it is nonetheless extraordinary. One of the reasons why it is being signed electronically and being transmitted between both sides is because they want immediate resumption of the passage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which, as of this morning, three Saudi tankers appear to be making their way through the Strait of Hormuz. So it does show us that some traffic is beginning to resume. And on the other side, the Iranians know that the moment it's actually signed, considered official, that they get the release of some of their funds, which Trump, of course, addressed. But as you said, we had a wild Trump press conference which preceded all of this. It's like somebody injected truth serum into him, and all of a sudden a gaffe is when a politician tells the truth. And there were a lot of gaffes, I think, throughout this entire one. First and foremost, is Trump here on nuclear enrichment being like, yeah, maybe we will let him enrich a little bit. Let's take a listen.
- [05:50]
Guest Commentator
We've been pretty tough in that. You know, it's also. It is a little hard, though, when you say that somebody wants it, other people have it, other adjoining states have it, and you're not letting them have it for purposes of electricity and things like that. It's always a little tough. You have to use a little common sense. You, please.
- [06:07]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I agree.
- [06:08]
Krystal Ball
Gotta use a little common sense.
- [06:09]
Saagar Enjeti
Agreed. Yeah, yeah.
- [06:10]
Krystal Ball
I mean, constitutional law, it is their right to enrich for civilian purposes. But pre, up to this moment, you know, if you said that you were mostly like a fringe lefty, usually radical, and now here you have the president like, well, you know, I mean, let's be reasonable about this. Why would we ban them from reaching a little bit for civilian purposes?
- [06:30]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
Yeah.
- [06:31]
Saagar Enjeti
You were previously surrender monkey. If you said, hey, they said that we won't get a nuclear weapon, they even agreed not to enrich past a certain point for civilian purposes. So I used my common sense before the war, and I was like, what's the problem with that? And yet Trump consistently said that the Iranians would not commit to zero enrichment, as in zero enrichment of uranium whatsoever or any nuclear material, including for civilian or for medical purposes, and use that as a pretext. Remember, he would consistently say, iran won't remember the magic words. They won't say the magic words, zero nuclear weapons, which he would define as zero enrichment. Anybody watching the show over a hundred days ago, I guess now is very familiar. And now Trump has come full circle Back to this.
- [07:15]
Krystal Ball
So much of it with him too was like whoever he last spoke with 100%. So I don't know who, what maybe it was JD Vance last in his ear, but somebody gave him some new thoughts on the matter because previously, and not just during this war, but leading up to it in the 12 Day War and throughout the negotiations, which, you know, I mean, they had a pretty reasonable deal on the table before they started bombing Iran the first time around. But in any case, he kept having his red line shifted by Israel and made more and more extreme. So it became not just no nuclear weapons, not just no nuclear enrichment whatsoever, but also we have to deal with the ballistic missile program, which is another area that he gets to here and now he says, well, how does that make any sense if everybody else is allowed to have weapons and defend themselves? Doesn't Iran have a right to defend itself too and have some sort of a military presence and have their ballistic missile program? Let's take a listen that.
- [08:11]
Guest Commentator
So we'll be working on a parallel effort with the Gulf nations to address non nuclear issues such as the conventional ballistic missiles which we'll be talking about and support. I mean, they have to have some because other people have some. You got to have some. Somebody said you shouldn't give them one. And I have guys, I like some of these guys, but I don't think this, I don't think they're smart. Sir, you shouldn't let them have any missile. I said, well, what am I going to do? Am I going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles? But they can't have them. Yes, sir. Can't. Doesn't work that way. You know, it doesn't work that way. And missiles aren't the problem. Missiles are. They hurt a little location, but they don't blow up the planet.
- [08:58]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, absolutely.
- [08:59]
Saagar Enjeti
Smart.
- [09:00]
Krystal Ball
True.
- [09:00]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [09:00]
Krystal Ball
Accurate. What, you're gonna let everybody else know, you're gonna let Israel have whatever they want from our stockpiles, but you're not gonna have any missile, as he said,
- [09:10]
Saagar Enjeti
in other words, Iran has a right to defend itself. Right. That's what I did.
- [09:14]
Krystal Ball
Does Iran have a right to exist?
- [09:16]
Saagar Enjeti
Does Iran have a right to. Iran has a right to exist and a right to defend itself. Right. Yeah, he's right. You know, I mean, part of this just belies the basic fact. Yes. When you lose a war, there are two things that have to happen. Number one, you don't get everything that you want. And two, you have to pay them a lot of reparations. This is. Lindy, it's a tale as old as time. You don't conquer the place. Thus you gotta take some gold out of the treasury and haul it on over and sign a memorandum. And if that doesn't hold, then you go back to war. This is what happens, people. Sorry. I mean the about face in a hundred days is kind of what's so shocking about it. But at a basic level, yeah, it's true, but that's why these, by uttering these truths for the first time, look from Trump, he can reverse at any
- [10:00]
Krystal Ball
point, he can say something different today,
- [10:02]
Saagar Enjeti
he can say something different. But there is power in the truth and there is power in what we have been trying to emphasize here for quite some time. How is it that you can allow Israel, a rogue state, to have a secret nuclear weapons program, to have missiles to bomb seven of its neighbors, to conquer and annex parts of Syria, the West Bank, Lebanon and Gaza, and then in a straight face say you're not allowed to have any even civilian nuclear enrichment, you're not allowed to have any ballistic missile threat. You cannot do that or you can take over the entire country. Right. And so that's why by saying yes, they have a right to defend itself. And sure, oh, a civilian nuclear, we can't say that. And they're like, but you're gonna pay them. It's like, yeah, we have to pay them, otherwise they're gonna continue to keep the straight of hormones. And even paying as Trump soon addresses is not even really paying them. We're paying them with their own money, like Obama did, the so called pallets of cash. Go ahead.
- [10:58]
Krystal Ball
Let me just react to what you just said. Cause I think you made an important point about the power of truth and the power of reality. And I think that that has overwhelmed the propaganda efforts, which were very minimal by the way, for this war and pretty pathetic and poorly organized and changing day by day. But the ability of the American people to see through some of that propaganda has really overwhelmed this war effort. And American foreign policy is increasingly built on propaganda and lies.
- [11:25]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [11:25]
Krystal Ball
Whether it's things like, oh, Israel's the most moral army on the planet and there are great allies and it's really great for our interests eventually, especially I mean in part because of social media, because you have a much more diverse media ecosystem. You know, you're not able to just keep people in the mainstream press where these propaganda efforts are, you know, come with very few holes in them, are very cohesive since you have that access. People are just not buying this fantasy world. And the fantasy world is Becoming more and more preposterous by the day. I told you a while ago, I was shocked by this. I was talking to my mom, who was not, like, particularly political. Well, she, most of her life has been an independent. Now she hates Trump, so she's definitely votes for Democrats, by and large. But she was talking about Iran, and she was like, I don't really get it. We're allowed to have nuclear weapons. And they are. She's like, that doesn't seem fair to me. I was like, mom, okay, I was pretty shocked that she said that. But people are seeing through a lot of these lies and these propaganda that has been built up over years and years and years. So look, look, Trump. One danger with him always is that people hear on one day something that they want to hear from Trump, just as the Zionists who wanted this war were hearing a lot of things from him that they wanted to hear over a lot of days. And now he's saying something different and doing something different, at least for the moment. And so the. My God, he betrayed us. He's shocked. I mean, this man will turn on a dime at any moment. There is no person he is loyal to, there is no country he is loyal to outside of himself. So it's. So it's remarkable to hear him say these things that, of course, if Obama said it, if Biden said it, it would be, and we would still be hearing about it on Fox News, et cetera. It is remarkable to hear him say those things. But of course, it doesn't mean that this is his fixed, locked in position. Doesn't mean that we won't go back to war tomorrow. I mean, Israel is still bombing Beirut. All of this is very tenuous and unstable. But the reason to talk about it is not because Trump is a reliable or good actor here. The reason to talk about it is because I think you're right. I think there is power and truth. And I think these are a lot of things that the American have intuited, which is why they have been so opposed to this war from the beginning in a way that is truly unprecedented in, I think, in American history.
- [13:41]
Saagar Enjeti
Let's just stick again. And I know some of this is repetitive for longtime viewers. I'm sorry. But let's just think about. Let's go back to Biden logic. It's like we have to arm Ukraine because they're being invaded. Israel invades Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon, annexes their territory in violation of international law, and we enable it and we ship them weapons. Hold on One second. Bucha's a genocide. Gaza.
- [14:07]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
Oh, that.
- [14:08]
Saagar Enjeti
No, that's. What is it? Self defense action, Horrific civilian casualties. Except one is orders of magnitude bigger than the other. That doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense, does it?
- [14:17]
Krystal Ball
Even the framing of Iran as like the singular evil.
- [14:20]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, exactly.
- [14:21]
Krystal Ball
You know, people watched us and Israel commit a genocide in Gaza for years. And then we go out and try to do our moral preening in the world. Oh, the Islamic terrorist regime. They're shooting protesters in the street. It's not that Americans are looking at this and go, yeah, Iran. They're actually the good guys. They're just going like, well, who are we really at this point to go out and lecture the world on moral values? And do we really believe that Donald Trump is so deeply concerned about the rights of protesters in the street in Tehran? Of course. It's preposterous. And so the fantasy world has become so divorced from reality that people did not buy it. They have access to information they didn't used to have. And now you have an American president who is acknowledging things that. And again, this can change in a moment, but who is acknowledging obvious, logical things that many Americans intuited. And it is hard to put that understanding back in the bottle.
- [15:18]
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely, yeah. Same with Iraq. I mean, oh, we were greeted as liberators. We're gonna bring them democracy. We all lived through that. We all knew this is bullshit from day one. It's only the same people who pushed the war are the very same people who are parroting those truths, which is ironic. Most cases, that's the exact same people who are defending and who were pushing it.
- [15:37]
Pets Best Insurance Advertiser
The following ad is sponsored by Pet's Best Insurance Services. You knew right away he's perfect. The one for you. Those puppy dog eyes, that cute little button nose. You don't even mind the drool. When you find your perfect match in a dog or cat, the love is unconditional. Your budget, on the other hand, has realistic limits. Help protect your heart and your wallet with pet insurance from Pets Back. With plans starting from less than a dollar a day, you can get up to 90% cash back on eligible vet bills. Pets Best makes it easy to pick a plan that works for you and your bank account. Find the perfect match for your Perfect match@petsbest.com Pet insurance products offered and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services, LLC are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Co. Or Independence American Insurance Co. For terms and conditions, visit www.petsbest.com. policy products are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Co. Independence American Insurance Co. Or Ms. Transverse Insurance Co. And administered by Pets Best Insurance Services LLC. $1.00 a day based on 2024 average new policyholder data for accident and illness plans. Pets age 0 to 10.
- [16:38]
Krystal Ball
I turned off news altogether.
- [16:40]
Guest Commentator
I hate to say it, but I
- [16:42]
don't trust much of anything.
- [16:45]
It's the rage bait.
- [16:47]
Krystal Ball
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [16:51]
Saagar Enjeti
We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little.
- [16:57]
NBC News Announcer
NBC NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.
- [17:07]
Podcast Advertiser
When people turn to healthcare for weight loss, they're looking for real support. That's why more people are choosing. Orderlymeds.com Orderly Meds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP1 medications like semaglutide and Tirzepatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience. And all shipped directly to your door in your discreet packaging. Do your research, ask questions, then visit orderlymeds.com podcast for an exclusive offer. That's orderlymeds.com podcast.
- [17:33]
Pets Best Insurance Advertiser
Individual results may vary. Not medical advice, eligibility required. See cite for details.
- [17:39]
Saagar Enjeti
There is immense power in the truth. Here is the next one from Donald Trump about Iran's money and how can we just keep it? That would undermine faith in the dollar. Let's go and put a three and let's select.
- [17:51]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
Can you explain, though, what the difference is between giving Iran US Dollars and unfreezing US Dollars?
- [17:59]
Guest Commentator
Well, the unfreezing is an easy one to answer. We have taken a lot of their money and we have their money. We have taken them. It's not our money, it's their money. And we froze it. At a certain point in time, I guess we're going to have to give it back. You know, if we didn't give it back, nobody would ever invest in the dollar again. If you took their money. Because I thought about it, you know, I'm not the most perfect person. I said just, Scott, Scott, why do we keep their money? What the hell are we giving it back to them? But you know, people from lots of nations, some nations we don't agree with, they have their money. The dollars become very strong under me and they don't want to have a little conflict with somebody and end up having the United States just take their money. So if you do that, you really don't have a system.
- [18:52]
Saagar Enjeti
You're right, sir. Absolutely. You're absolutely right. And yet again, you know, this is neocon worldview is that the United States can be the world's reserve currency and bank that just declares when somebody who's spooky and bad doesn't get to have access to their money like we did with Russia. You know, I'm coming back to, to Russia. We just said, oh, no, actually all of your money, it's ours. And as we said at the time, we're like, hey, we're going to blow up the integrity of the entire international banking system and create a alternative cycle of crypto and of the Chinese yuan that will be used to circumvent the US bank, which actually makes us weaker. That's exactly what happened. And then how did Iran actually facilitate some of those 2 million? We know at least some people paid the toll. How did they pay? Either in yuan or they paid in crypto. Well, guess what, you laid the ground for that again with what happened after Ukraine. So you are watching the reckoning and we're actually gonna talk about this later. People are now bullish back on the dollar after a result of this. Cause they're like, oh, hey, actually, you know, oh, we could go back to the world's reserve status. It's bad for the United States, especially in an emerging multipolar system where people who are, quote, enemies or bad or for a president can at any time just turn his back and say, all of your money is ours to be able to keep it. You know, this reminds me of the whole palace of cash situation, which, I'll be honest, at the time I fe for it because I didn't do enough research. But going back, Trita Parsi outlined all of this on Tucker Carlson's show and laid it out extremely well. He's like, look, he had a certain amount of money which was paid by the Shah to the United States for arms. We didn't send the arms, we kept the money. The Iranian regime took the US to court at the Hague and the Hague was gonna rule against us. So we had to send back the money with interest because that's the rule. And we sent back what was their money.
- [20:35]
Krystal Ball
Well, and when they. And they were sanctioned from using any of the traditional banking system. So how else are you gonna get them the money than send sending them pallets of cash? And that is the piece where this one is the hardest for me to stomach from Trump because he has demagogued so much against the JCPOA and the provisions in there and the pallets of cash. I mean, he did the whole thing all in on those talking about weak Obama with how terrible deal it was and how we sent them these Pallets of cash to fund their terrorist activities, blah, blah, blah. So it is a little bit hard for me to stomach him now acknowledging the truth when it comes to him and his deal of, hey, this is actually their money, and at some point we probably should give it back. Otherwise this becomes, in a way, a problem for us. Because if we are continually using and abusing our status as the world's reserve currency, our domination of the global financial system, that of course, nations are going to figure out alternatives. And that is already happening in nascent form. And already our sanctions and the power of those sanctions, they're still powerful, don't get me wrong. Already they're beginning to be diminished and less of a threat than they used to be. Now, that's probably a good thing for the world, but if you're an American president and you're interested in preserving American empire, not such great thing.
- [21:53]
Saagar Enjeti
No, it's a disaster. And, yeah, I mean, in 1998, that makes a lot of sense.
- [21:57]
Guest Commentator
Sure.
- [21:57]
Saagar Enjeti
Where else are you gonna go in 2026? Nope. There's a lot of different avenues that you can go through. And if you're willing to sit there and to suffer, which ultimately, that's what happened. The Iranians were like, okay, we're gonna take a massive hit. People are gonna starve, people are gonna be poor, but at the end of the day, we're gonna hold out for victory. We're literally under consistent bombing and attack. This is a absolute war of survival. And as all regimes that are under that exact type of pressure, they did not buckle. They got stronger. They held out for potential terms, and we eventually had to bend the knee. This is how things were gonna work
- [22:29]
Guest Commentator
out, as you said.
- [22:29]
Saagar Enjeti
By the way, I think this is a good thing. This actually is a healthy dynamic. But this is why it is so intolerable for Israel, because if we treat Iran like a normal country, that erases their regional hegemony over the entire world. That erases the fact that we now have to balance these different interests. And, you know, I made this point with Dr. Parsi. Iran's GDP is only 100 billion less than the entire nation of Israel. Now, granted, Israel has a much higher GDP per capita, but there are plenty of small, high GDP per capita nations, which overall GDP don't make them particularly important to the rest of the world. You have Iran here, which unsanctioned and reconstructed with that 300 billion. If they're able to sell oil into the global market to export any of this and then use it to invest 25 years from now, between the Strait of Hormuz and the strength of their economy, this is going to be a geopolitical, maybe not a powerhouse, but regional power, like Robert Pape has consistently said, and he really deserves. He's the first person who really gave me the vision of this framework.
- [23:32]
Pets Best Insurance Advertiser
He's right.
- [23:32]
Saagar Enjeti
Between the power of geography and then their ability to export this amount of oil, not to mention, you know, look, they have, as the neocons always said, there's a lot of intellectual capital that's locked up in Iran. If they have the ability over the next 25 years to operate as a normal nation, there is no reason that they will not become massively more economically and strategically important to the world. And just to show the power of their bargaining chip, finally, you know, everybody, the number one chirp that annoys me is people said, you said oil was gonna hit 200. I'm like, sorry, I didn't foresee that China would cut 40% of all of its imports for the first ever in human history.
- [24:10]
Krystal Ball
Thank you so much.
- [24:10]
Saagar Enjeti
I apologize. Thank you. Also, you should be thanking Sha. You should be happy. I was wrong. And you should thank China for having better EVs and for a shit ton more oil reserve than we do. But we also kept pointing to one thing, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And we're like, hey, all these oil executives say, another month or two or this is gonna be a real problem. And what did everybody say? Oh, you're wrong. It's not happening. Look at the delusional traders on Wall Street. Well, same power in the truth. Here's Trump saying, we had four weeks until every strategic Petroleum reserve ran dropped. Take a listen.
- [24:40]
Guest Commentator
Also, we run out of reserves in about four weeks. You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out, and it'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it. And you want to see bedlam, bedlam, bedlam.
- [24:51]
Krystal Ball
That's what we're headed towards.
- [24:53]
Saagar Enjeti
You know, Chevron, CEO, all. You know, Rory, I want to really. These people deserve credit. They were not incorrect.
- [24:59]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [25:00]
Saagar Enjeti
All they did not foresee was China having one of the world's largest strategic petroleum reserves and massively cutting their energy imports. Which I will just say nobody literally could have foreseen that except for the ccp. If China had continued to import oil, the current estimate is oil would have been over $150 to $170 a barrel. Now here, whenever it comes to the strategic reserve, they have access to the. Because the data is all out There we can all see, oh, you know, lowest level since 1998. Next week, lowest level since 1984. We're like, well, there's not that much oil there. And then when they do, we know how much that we produce on a daily basis. We have no slack in the system. We know what direction that's gonna go. Same here from Trump. We would have run out of oil, and it would have been bentlam. So the basic reality is that Iran's strategy was correct and that fundamentally, the weapon of the Strait of Hormuz will remain for all time a part of the Iranian playbook. And it should be. From their perspective, we can either change that by occupying their nation and taking hundreds of thousands of casualties, or we can pay them and we can just live together. I choose the latter. I think most people do, too.
- [26:08]
Krystal Ball
You know, it's very interesting to hear Trump say this, to say the least, because, I mean, this is what the Iranian bet was, right? They bet that we could not take the economic pain, that they could, and that it would hurt us more and it would force us to come to the table and give them the terms that they had long been seeking. This is confirmation that they were correct, that that bet ultimately paid off. You know, all the propaganda of FDD and others who were saying, oh, if you just. If we do a blockade of their blockade, they're gonna completely collapse. Remember that? They were saying, oh, their oil wells are gonna explode and they're gonna completely collapse in days. Obviously, that did not happen. And so here you have Trump acknowledging the reason for the timing of this deal is because we ran out of Runway. We were weeks away from what he describes as bedlam because we were running too low on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. We weren't the only ones. The whole world's ability to absorb this extraordinarily, truly historic level of an energy shock that was within days to weeks of coming to an end. And so that's why he was so intent on getting this deal now, because we were out of time. There was another very interesting comment. We didn't pull it, but I think it was a lot of things he said were just, like, very revealing of what was going on in his head as he's watching all of this unfold. And we know how much he watches the stock market and how much market manipulation was a part of the entire strategy this whole time along. And he said, like, look, I observed that when there was talk of peace, the stock market went up, and when there was talk of war, the stock market went down. And the markets are. He said, they're more genius than any person on the entire planet. So the markets are wise and all knowing. So that sent me the message of, hey, I better get to peace, because that's what the stock market wants. I think that was genuinely an influential part of his thinking, was just this very simplistic, oh, peace good, war bad, as judging by the response from the market. So I thought that was very revealing as well. All that being said, I just want to again sound a note of caution. I'm just reading the headlines right now in Harvard Threats. You've got Israel holding negotiations with the US as it seeks to continue its deployment of troops in southern Lebanon. One person was killed in an Israeli drone strike in a town in southern Lebanon's Nabatiya district, according to a local channel. So you still have Israel agitating here. Netanyahu's entire, entire political career is truly on the line. Israel feels that this is existential. We're going to show you some of the continued freak out from their allies here, as well as, as some domestic intense supporters of Netanyahu, for example, who are just absolutely losing their minds. They will do whatever they can to undermine this. And Trump is very sensitive. His ego is very sensitive. He could wake up today, see news coverage he doesn't like, and go back to banging the drums of war. None of this is stable. The other thing I will just say on the politics of it is when Biden withdrew from Afghanistan, there was, there's a. It's not exactly the same, but it is a bit of a similar moment of acknowledging the reality of this is a failed war. We've been here for decades. We didn't accomplish anything. Now is the time to pull the plug. What, we're gonna stay there forever? That was basically the reason for the Afghan withdrawal, was there is not going to be a good time to do this. So we're just going to do this and acknowledge the reality that is in front of everybody's eyes. People leading up to the withdrawal supported it overwhelmingly. If you polled the American people, we looked at these polls, they would say, yes, we should get out of Afghanistan. Then it happened and it became the single most devastating blow to Biden's presidency. The reason being because there was such a united front across all media apparatus. There were very big, again, credit to Ro Khan. He was one of the only ones who was willing to go out and defend Biden and his withdrawal from Afghanistan. There was such a blanket condemnation then, of course, like the horror of American service members being killed, the mess of all that surely did not help anything, although I don't know that there ever would have been a way that this could have gone completely smoothly. It really was like the death knell of his presidency. And so even though Trump here, if this goes through, if we get to peace, et cetera, I mean, the fact that he brought us into war to begin with was an utter and complete disaster. And the acknowledgement of the reality of our losing this war, which is what happened, we lost the war. And what that means, what we're going to have to give in exchange for acknowledging that reality, could be a death knell for Trump's presidency. The way that the Afghan withdrawal was from Biden.
- [31:01]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. Because it's like ending a war, which you shouldn't have been in the first. That's why even navigating this is so difficult.
- [31:06]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
Right.
- [31:07]
Saagar Enjeti
You want to be like, wow, Mr. President, thank you for your strategic wisdom. It's like, well, you got us into this damn mess.
- [31:11]
Krystal Ball
Yes. You're the reason that the strait of hormones was closed in the first place.
- [31:14]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. And today, what it is, Gas, actually. Thank God, gas just hit 399 a gallon nationally.
- [31:19]
Guest Commentator
Good.
- [31:19]
Saagar Enjeti
You know, I'm happy It was 250.
- [31:21]
Guest Commentator
So. Okay.
- [31:22]
Saagar Enjeti
You know, it's like, are we going to. Are we going to celebrate?
- [31:25]
Guest Commentator
No.
- [31:25]
Saagar Enjeti
That's why instead of Trump, I'm just gonna attack the people who are attacking the deal. That's gonna be kind of my. Where I'm at. But, yeah, you're not wrong. A lot of people are not gonna forgive because it's not like things were all peachy here in the US Even before the US Went to war with Iran. Last thing, Matt Stoller had a good tweet months ago where he said, I'll believe that a deal is real when Trump starts praising the Iranians in a vaguely homosexual manner. And his. His nascent dude crushes were very on display, not necessarily to the Iranians here, but to a lot of the Arab allies who helped cement this peace deal. Let's take a listen. A six.
- [32:05]
Krystal Ball
Mr. President, I have a question.
- [32:08]
Guest Commentator
Yes.
- [32:08]
Odoo Advertiser
Regarding this.
- [32:09]
Guest Commentator
What a nice looking person. Is he from your country? Is he from your country? Absolutely. No. He's got such a nice way about him. My people, they're so mean.
- [32:18]
Starbucks Advertiser
Look at him.
- [32:19]
Guest Commentator
Handsome guy. Could put him. Be careful. No, I can put him. I can put him in a movie right now. Go ahead. He's a very tough negotiator. He's one of the toughest. So you look at this man, I'll give you a lesson. He's the most beautiful looking man. He looks so nice. He's like an angel. But actually, he's as tough. He's a killer. I don't want to. He's that killer. He's as tough as they come. But he looks so good. So he gets you by surprise. So he was in a hotel and I met him and we fell in love, deeply in love. And he didn't even want to see Hillary.
- [32:56]
Saagar Enjeti
The last person he's talking about there is President Sisi of Egypt, who's like one of the most brutal dictators.
- [33:03]
Krystal Ball
He's like, I stayed longer, twice as long as I was supposed to. We fell in love.
- [33:07]
Saagar Enjeti
Fell in love.
- [33:08]
Krystal Ball
So my theory of what happened here that really clinched the deal in the end and led to Trump's capitulation on some key concessions is he saw the men's national soccer team and was like, look at these. Look at these big, strong guys, better looking than Tom Cruise. And he was like, give them what they want. They want to do a little nuclear enrichment. Why not? They want their money back. Who, who could blame them? Give them their money back. I think. I think that's what's really going on behind the scenes. There was, there was a chart on Twitter that said, like, as Trump's dementia level rises, also his blatant bisexuality rises in tandem. So that might be what's going on here.
- [33:43]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
Yeah.
- [33:43]
Pets Best Insurance Advertiser
No.
- [33:43]
Podcast Advertiser
All right.
- [33:45]
Saagar Enjeti
Certainly something. All right, let's get to the Vance situation.
- [33:51]
Pets Best Insurance Advertiser
Protect your pet with insurance from Pets Best plans start from less than a dollar a day. Visit petsbest.com Pet insurance products offered and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services, LLC are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Co. Or Independence American Insurance Co. For terms and conditions, visit www.petsbest.com. policy products are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company, Independence American Insurance Co. Or Ms. Transverse Insurance Co. And administered by Pets Best Insur LLC. $1 a day premium based on 2024 average new policyholder data for accident and illness plans. Pets age 0 to 10.
- [34:22]
Krystal Ball
I turned off news altogether.
- [34:24]
Guest Commentator
I hate to say it, but I
- [34:26]
don't trust much of anything.
- [34:29]
It's the rage bait.
- [34:31]
Krystal Ball
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [34:36]
Saagar Enjeti
We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little.
- [34:41]
NBC News Announcer
NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.
- [34:51]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
When people turn to telehealth for weight loss, they're looking for real support. That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com orderly meds connect you with real doctors and access to proven GLP1 medications like semaglutide and Tirzeptatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience and all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research. Research, ask questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com podcast for an exclusive offer. That's orderlymeds.com podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice eligibility required. See site for details.
- [35:24]
Saagar Enjeti
Turning now to this bizarre situation in the maga neocon world where all of these pathetic cowards do not have the balls to actually say, Donald Trump, you made a bad deal. And so instead it's like the good czar and the bad boyars, they have to go and find who that bad boy are is here. It is now the vice president who is manipulating and controlling things behind the scenes. Here is Ben Shapiro on Fox News making this case. Let's take a listen.
- [35:52]
Guest Commentator
I've said many times, the president deciding to go into Iran and to hit nuclear facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer and then to go after Iran's ballistic missile facilities, nuclear facilities, army, navy and air force in this current operation was the signal act of political bravery, perhaps of my life lifetime. With that said, this MOU appears to be, just from the text, a disaster that does not achieve any of the actual signal goals that were set by the administration at the beginning. There were effectively five goals that were set by the administration at the beginning. One was ending the nuclear program, not just nuclear weapons, no nuclear enrichment, zero enrichment. That is not in the deal. Ballistic missiles ended. That is not in the deal. And the president today suggested that ballistic missiles should actually continue to be held by the Iranians because the Saudis are allies, also hold ballistic missiles, then you have the support of terrorism. That is not part of the deal. Anything that looks like an attempt to end terrorism, a permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz toll free. Not only is that not in the deal, the deal appears to have a provision allowing Iran and Oman to attempt to toll the straits after 60 days. And then finally the idea that Iran would receive some sort of sanctions relief after all of those things happen. We are already seeing from day one relief in their ability to ship oil out of Iran. In my opinion, the vice president of the United States, the chief negotiator on this particular project, has not well served the president.
- [37:08]
Saagar Enjeti
He has not well served the president. He has not served. Maybe consider the possibility Trump, who signed it, can read. Can we accept that possibility? Thus, maybe it's Donald Trump's deal and you don't have the stones to say, hey, Trump, you made a bad deal.
- [37:23]
Krystal Ball
How about that?
- [37:24]
Saagar Enjeti
It's like he's like this infallible. Like, literally, it's the czar. The czar is infallible, only the people around him who are bad. But the irony of all of this is that when Tucker and a few others remember one of the war breakout and they were like, well, Israel drug us into a war. They're like, donald Trump is the wisest, most independent, most singular leader to say he is controlled, manipulated, in fact, preposterous, disgusting, insulting. Can anybody look at the mighty President Trump and say he is controlled? And now, now, oh, he's just a weak.
- [38:01]
Krystal Ball
He's not his fault. He's not as being misled by his advisor.
- [38:05]
Saagar Enjeti
Let me give you my other personal favorite, Will Chamberlain. You know, we've had him here on the show. You know him and I, you know, I used to like the guy, but the guy was a huge defender of this deal today. He says the. We have the text. The deal is absolutely terrible. There's no getting around it. The text gives Iranians huge immediate financial benefits and in exchange for the strait, nothing else. Here's what he said on February 18, 2026. You do not have more insight into what America should do vis a vis Iran than Donald Trump, J.D. vance Rubio and Pete Hegseth. You just don't let them cook. I agree.
- [38:38]
Krystal Ball
Let them cook.
- [38:39]
Saagar Enjeti
I agree. Let them cook. Trust the plan. Am I right?
- [38:42]
Krystal Ball
You know, trust the plan.
- [38:44]
Saagar Enjeti
That sounds like panicking behavior. One might even say there are some
- [38:47]
Krystal Ball
people who are out there doing the trust the plan, though. Like, some, like they're trying to imagine some 4D chess where, you know, this all ends in. And look, it may be the case that we end up going back to.
- [38:59]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, but it won't be 40 chess. It'll just be his real sabotage.
- [39:01]
Krystal Ball
Yes, exactly. Exactly. But no, I mean, this has been a consistent theme since the first Trump administration. Then I remember hearing all about how it's Kushner's fault that Trump is doing X or Y or Z that we don't want him to do. It reminds me too, of. So John Podoritz is in total meltdown.
- [39:18]
Saagar Enjeti
The human watermelon gene.
- [39:20]
Krystal Ball
And it's kind of, it's very enjoyable because he's telling the truth about something. Like, he's saying things like, I don't know why we even went into this war. It's like, yeah, me neither. Why did we. At the urging of idiots like you. But in any case, he Said this extraordinary thing about how he was like, look, what this all comes down to is the truth of the matter is Trump is corrupt. And when he was doing the Iran war, doing the bidding of Israel, that wasn't because of his corruption. That was his genuine view. But now the corruption is taking hold, just completely ignoring the whole Miriam Adelson of the situation, or the way that Witkoff and Kushner and the Trump family are completely invested in the entire region, et cetera. But now that he's doing something that Podoridz does not want him to do, now it's the corruption that's really driving the train. It really is incredible to see. You know, the J.D. vance thing is significant politically because in a sense, I think that they are correct to. Politically correct to hone in on J.D. vance, avoid the direct criticism of Trump because you know how thin skinned he is. And Trump himself said that, hey, if this deal doesn't work out, you know who I'm gonna blame? I'm gonna blame the vice President. I'm gonna say that it was all his fault. And like many things that he uttered yesterday, I think on that he was telling the truth. Let's go ahead and take a listen.
- [40:41]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
Why not stick around for the signing ceremony with this Iran peace deal?
- [40:47]
Guest Commentator
I might.
- [40:48]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
You might?
- [40:48]
Guest Commentator
Yeah, I might. But I'd rather. This is a memorandum of understanding. It's very important, but it might not be the kind of a document that I should be signing.
- [40:59]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
There's some element to this where you send the vice president.
- [41:04]
Saagar Enjeti
If it works out, great.
- [41:06]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
You look like a genius for sending him. And if it doesn't work out, it's the vice President.
- [41:12]
Guest Commentator
I like that idea. Shu, this way. If it works out, I'm going to take the credit. If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming J.D. you better be careful, J.D. he's going to turn his plane around and get the hell out of here. Yeah, I like that idea. I think it's a good idea.
- [41:25]
Krystal Ball
It's very interesting to watch Marco Rubio's face throughout this entire press conference, by the way. But no, I mean, when it was war and Trump is threatening to kill the entire civilization and all these sorts of things.
- [41:35]
Podcast Advertiser
Things.
- [41:35]
Krystal Ball
Marco Rubio was very much on the up. You know, he was on the upswing and he was put out to the media and he was a lot of the public face. Now that there's an attempt at this memo of understanding and negotiations towards a peace deal. J.D. vance has been on like 3,000 news programs.
- [41:53]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, He's Briefing the press this morning.
- [41:54]
Krystal Ball
Oh, is he? I just got a notification on my phone that he did one with Ross Dalfat. He was on with the ladies at the View. He was over at Fox News. I mean, he really is being made the face of this thing. And so I think there is some truth to Trump's quip there that if this doesn't go well, I'll just blame J.D. vance. And I think that will allow the neocons to attack the deal without getting into Trump's bad graces. Look, I mean, it's a similar strategy to what Joe Kent employs where he resigns. But he tried. He went out of his way to be like, the only person who could get us out of this bind is the magnificent Donald Trump. I mean, he understood that Trump's ego is very, very fragile. And so if you're going to continue to have any sort of standing with him, you have to protect the ego at all costs. And so they're doing their version of that of, well, who can we identify that we can pick on who? Also, by the way, Ben Shapiro and JD Vance have other ideological differences that Shapiro would are happy to go after J.D. vance and make him, him the potential fall guy if this thing comes apart, which it very well may.
- [43:07]
Saagar Enjeti
But this is part of the issue with Trump. He doesn't wanna actually take credit for anything. I mean, he literally says it out loud. So in some ways, he could just say. He literally said. He's like, well, if it works out, I'll take credit. If it doesn't, then I'll blame J.D. i mean, I think J.D. has made the calculation. He's like, look, I'm gonna be the face of this thing. Nobody else will try to sell it to the press. What, are you gonna have Rubio sell it? Rubio went out and sold the war. How did that work out? It actually worked out well for me because he's the only person who told the truth the day after the war to attack Iran, because Israel was going to attack them, and they were, and there's nothing that we could have done to stop them. So we went into the war because of Israel. He literally said it.
- [43:42]
Krystal Ball
So, look, did you hear Hillary Clinton's comments this week?
- [43:46]
Saagar Enjeti
Which ones?
- [43:47]
Krystal Ball
She said a lot, but she said. She said this thing about how, oh, Israel tried to get us into war with Iran many times. And she said that they would literally tell them, like, the planes are on the tarmac, and they'd be like, but because Trump is such a rube and he's got a bunch of incompetent idiots around him. And because he ultimately wanted this war and wanted to be talked into this, and was very easily talked into it because of the idea of, like, sir, your legacy, you'll remake the Middle East. You'll do what no one else had the courage to do, et cetera, et cetera. But in any case, when they did the whole, like, we're about to go, he was like, all right, well, I guess we have to go. And that was the final thing that pushed him over the edge is what it seems like happened to him.
- [44:30]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I mean, look, be honest. All of the stupidity of even getting into all of this in the first place, I do actually think this is very important. Let's go and put B3 up here on the screen. Everyone should read this. The Israeli ultra hawks who feel betrayed by Trump's Iran deal. Shimon Riklin, an anchor on the country's right wing Channel 14 and a Netanyahu ally, thinks America stabbed Israel in the back. I really recommend everybody go and actually read this thing to get into the Derang minds of the Israeli right wing. But the important line there, which has a deep historical parallel to the Versailles and the Memorandum of understanding and the 14 points, just like the 14 points by Wilson, the peace plan is the phrase stabbed in the back. Because what is playing out right now is the exact same situation as the Germans of 1919, where the home front collapsed and they had to surrender at the Treaty of Versailles. And they decided to concoct this theory where it was the German people oppose the war from continuing because they were starving and going through like, revolution, that it was their fault that the great armed forces ended up having to surrender. This stab in the back theory obviously becomes intrinsic with Nazism, but in this case, the people who stabbed the Israelis in the back are us, the Americans, because we don't have the stomach for war, as they recently wrote. But why is this so dangerous? Because for them, they're gonna construct this unhinged new reality, which you can actually read in here. And he goes, well, you know, the blockade of the blockade was working, and if America had just allowed our Kurdish militias to enter, then it would have worked. He said the IDF General Staff told him that there was an 80% chance of regime change if we had just let these Kurds. I mean, this is the same deranged shit that the Germans used to say after the First World War. If only we had done this one
- [46:26]
Krystal Ball
more military offensive or the Vietnam dead ender. Yeah, they did the same shit.
- [46:29]
Saagar Enjeti
They bombed than we could have than it all could have worked out, you know, I mean, but why is that so dangerous? Because when you don't reckon with reality, what happens? Oh, well, we all know where Stab in the back went back under Germany. But like, the parallels here are exactly the same. Where they cannot grapple with their own failure. Like they can only be failed. It's like the whole. Trump can't fail. He can only be failed. The Israelis can never fail. They can only be failed, in this case by America. Go. Go ahead and look. Trump's approval rating now is -23 in Israel. Three weeks ago it was -16. What does that tell you, right? They want us to serve them. That's the way that they look at it. You can actually even read throughout this
- [47:09]
Krystal Ball
entire thing, think about. I mean, Trump has done everything, everything
- [47:13]
Saagar Enjeti
people could ever want.
- [47:14]
Krystal Ball
I mean, truly. They basically annexed parts of Syria, invaded and annexed parts of Lebanon. They have now 60 to 70% of Gaza that they've annexed. He supported their genocide for a long time before we got any sort of a deal there. The deal continues to be a disaster. And the Israelis are still allowed to kill with impunity Palestinians, the West bank rampaging, even the little bit of settler sanctions that the Biden administration put on, like four people. The Trump administration, we can't do that. We've got to let the violent terrorist settlers rampage throughout and do whatever they want. He has done everything they want up to and including starting this war, which was something that the Israeli public and Netanyahu wanted very dearly. And now they cannot handle the fact that this was a disaster. It was not only a dramatic disaster and miscalculation by Trump, it was a dramatic disaster and miscalculation by them because all of their, oh, it's gonna regime is gonna collapse and they're so weak, blah, blah, blah. They were high on their own supply the same way that Trump was high on his own supply with regards to Venezuela. I wanna read you this one section and Chotner, I don't know why anyone ever agrees to an interview with this guy.
- [48:25]
Saagar Enjeti
This guy's Israeli, so he doesn't know, I guess.
- [48:27]
Krystal Ball
I don't know. They're very savvy about American media, so about that. But unlike the domestic political context here, where Shapiro and others are going out of their way not to blame Trump, he and the Israelis are very much putting the blame on Trump, as they should, I guess. And Chandra kind of plays along with him in all of this and all of his delusions. So in any case, Chander says, putting aside the merits of this war, do you think people such as yourself and the prime minister misjudged Donald Trump? I know you said a joyful prayer on the air when he was elected in 2020. You must have had some sense of who this guy is, that he isn't loyal to anyone, that he had no real core values. The response, listen, I was really happy when he was elected. I admit it. I think it was good for Israel. And in the beginning it was. But today, I don't know what to think. I am really in shock. Chotner goes on. It's hard to fathom, again, playing along with him. I don't have a lot of moments like this. I don't remember someone in modern history who would go with you and do wonderful things and then suddenly disappear and go against you. So now I'm the bad guy. I support. I was the good guy. How did I become the bad guy? And Ayatollah is the good guy? And then Shawna replies, this is why I was wondering whether you had ever observed Donald Trump. Did you know who you're dealing with here? Like, the man has no loyalties to anything except what serves him right then in that moment. And five days from now, they may be cheering him again. They're negotiating over whether they continue to occupy and bomb in Lebanon. And we'll see what happens with that. We'll see what happens over the next 60 days, whether his ego can handle the damage that it's no doubt sustaining, as so many people come out and say, hey, this is actually really. It's not even that it's a bad deal. It is the necessary deal. But clearly it acknowledges reality that we lost and they won. Can he handle that? Can he sustain it? So the same guy may be singing his praises again and thinking they're besties again in a week's time. But pretty wild to see the level of dilution, illusion that they had about who and what they were dealing with.
- [50:26]
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, it's. Look, they created their own mythos, and I think they really believed Netanyahu, that he controlled Donald Trump or that he was, you know, had the. What did he say once behind closed doors, like, I know exactly how to work the Americans. I mean, to his credit, he did. He actually did. I mean, you can't say that he didn't get almost 98% of what he wanted, but as usual with these rampaging lunatics is that they get what they want and it's working and it's working and it's working. And then they Go one die dice roll too many and oh, seven comes up on the table. And that's what happened here with Iran, is they actually got everything that they wanted, which is part of the why it's good because it shows you that we beat, absent a ground invasion, we threw everything we had at Iran and they still did not buckle in the way that they wanted. So they have nothing. That's why they need the stab in the back theory. But again, I really want, I want to emphasize that considering where history went after the Treaty of Versailles and Trump signing the Versailles memorandum after stab in the back, it can get very dangerous. By the way, you know, on J Pod, I've been wanting to revisit this. Do you remember this from July 4, 2025, when Trump said the word Shylock?
- [51:36]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [51:36]
Saagar Enjeti
And J Pod said Trump bombed Iran. He can say Shylock 100 times a day, forever, as far as I'm concerned. So I just wanna know, J Pod, does Trump still have your permission to say a word?
- [51:46]
Krystal Ball
Does he still have.
- [51:46]
Saagar Enjeti
That is my most pressing question of the day. Does he still have his Shylock card?
- [51:51]
Krystal Ball
These people are beyond character.
- [51:53]
Saagar Enjeti
That is an open question to the human watermelon.
- [51:56]
Krystal Ball
J Pod, one last thing I want to add in here, just as we're thinking of how unhinged the Israelis are, how existential this is for Netanyahu's political career, which I genuinely think it is, and his political opponents are all challenging him from the right, all saying, like, you were not hawkish enough and you need to defy the Americans and we can't accept this weak status as their client state. That's how they're all posturing. It's very popular with the Israeli public. So I do think he is in deep, deep political trouble. So, I mean, what would he and what would the state be willing to do in order to re secure his standing, in order to go back to war that he personally sees as being existential for his political career? And I think the nation of Israel sees as being existential to their, you know, their construction as they are now, their particular view of how, you know, they can't possibly allow any rival, they can't have anyone who could even theoretically challenge them, whether or not they have intent to do them harm or not. And in that vein, it was very unnerving to see Laura Loomer Twitter tweet that soon there will be a massive Islamic terror attack in America and the perpetrators will likely have financial ties to podcasters and those who are sowing discord for foreign nations in America, I predict there will be many casualties. Only then will it may be set in that people have been conned into supporting a terrorist psyop to distract you from the threat of Islam while the enemy plotted to destroy our country from within with bottled conspiracy theories. It will likely be 10 times worse than not 9 11. Glenn Greenwald quote, tweeted this and said everyone understandably gets a bit nervous when an agent of Israel starts threatening, I mean, predicting a major mass casualty terrorist attack on American soil just days after the American President announces a deal that enrages all of Israel. I wish that we could ignore the rantings of Laura Loomer, who was a genuinely mentally unwell person, but unfortunately she has influence, has been shown to have influence. You know, she's been targeting Trita Parsi and next thing know, you, you know, you get this Free Press article saying that he's under investigation and being threatened with deportation. So unfortunately, we cannot ignore the ravings of this lunatic and we cannot ignore what a dangerous situation and phase we're in right now because of the Israel. For the Israelis, there are no moral red lines because they are always inherently the good guys. And so anything they do in service of what they see as their defense is inherently moral. And just because they are good people, no matter what they do, their actions have no bearing on the fact that they are the permanent victims and they are the permanent good guys. So when you have a bankrupt moral landscape or a non existent moral landscape such as that, there is nothing you can put off the table that they would not try for Netanyahu to preserve his political status and for them to be able to preserve what, their ascendant dominance in the Middle East.
- [54:56]
Saagar Enjeti
Yep. And you know, look, I don't count these people out for a second. The Lor Loomer thing, very dangerous. The level of anger inside of Israel. I mean, I don't know how much you should take like the musings of various, you know, random Israelis, like that's always a little bit dangerous. But if you take a look at some of their telegram channels and things like, there's some unhinged stuff. I'm looking at one from this moral that said, this is an anonymous telegram channel of a bunch of Israelis and they said we will join the Iranians chant of death to America. Right. I mean these people have the means, the opportunity, the ability. And so maybe we should start worrying about sleeper cells, you know, in terms of sabotage.
- [55:36]
Krystal Ball
Here's another headline from this one from the Times of Israel, which is a more like right wing outlet Netanyahu to lean on right wing pundits. Pro Israel senators to influence final Iran deal this is per cnn Plans to use pro Israel senators, right wing media personalities to influe terms of the final agreement. Believes a final deal with Iran will be secured but that Tehran will not fulfill its obligations. Plans to use media figures like Fox News, Mark Levin and pro Israel politicians to get his message across to Trump. So as you're watching, you know Ted Cruz has been critical of the deal. Obviously Levin has been losing his mind. As you're watching these people, just remember they may have literally gotten a call from Netanyahu telling telling them what to say, how to push and how to try to manipulate the situation.
- [56:22]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly right. All right, we got a great guest standing by. Let's get to it.
- [56:26]
Pets Best Insurance Advertiser
Protect your pet with insurance from Pets Best plans start from less than a dollar a day. Visit petsbest.com Pet insurance products offered and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services, LLC or underwritten by American Pet Insurance Co. Or Independence American Insurance Co. For terms and conditions, visit www.petsbest.com Policy products are underwritten by American Page Pet Insurance Company, Independence American Insurance Co. Or Ms. Transverse Insurance Co. And administered by Pets Best Insurance Services, LLC. $1.00 a day premium based on 2024 average new policyholder data for accident and illness plans.
- [56:55]
Krystal Ball
Pets age 0 to 10 I turned off news altogether.
- [57:00]
Guest Commentator
I hate to say it, but I
- [57:01]
don't trust much of anything.
- [57:04]
It's the rage bait.
- [57:06]
Krystal Ball
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [57:11]
Saagar Enjeti
We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little.
- [57:16]
NBC News Announcer
NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News Reporting for America.
- [57:26]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
When people turn to telehealth for weight loss, they're looking for real support. That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com orderly meds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP medications like Semaglutide and Tirzeptatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience. And all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research, ask questions, then visit orderlymeds.com podcast for an exclusive offer. That's orderlymeds.com podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice eligibility required. See site for details.
- [57:59]
Krystal Ball
So we now have the official terms in the Memo of Understanding. So to dig more into those terms and what they will mean going forward, we're very happy to be joined for the first time by Mohammed Ali Shabani. He is the editor of Mwatch Media, we've relied on some of their reporting. They've had some fantastic scoops over the course of this entire conflict and of course before as well. It's great to have you, sir.
- [58:20]
Saagar Enjeti
Good to see you, sir.
- [58:21]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
Thank you so much for having me.
- [58:23]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, no problem. So let's go ahead, guys, and put this first element up on the screen. This is some of your reporting of the Iranian released version of the Memo of Understanding here. Just break down for us what you see as being some of the most significant points as we move into the 60 day negotiation period.
- [58:43]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
Well, I think first and foremost, the most important thing to keep in mind is basically that this is mou. This is a memorandum understanding, this is a framework, this is a roadmap. This is not a finalized deal that needs to be fully implemented for the next 10 years.
- [58:58]
Guest Commentator
Right.
- [58:58]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
So the most important provision, I think, within this MoU is that it provides for 60 days to come to a final deal, as it's referred to within this document. Document. And that 60 day period can be extended by mutual consent. However, there is a kind of deadline here and the big ticket items, such as how to resolve the future of the Iranian nuclear program, those kinds of things have been mostly pushed back. And so it's going to be difficult, you know, next two months ahead and we don't know, they may need more time, they may need less time, and they may also come to the conclusion that a deal is to be had. And already we're seeing a lot of people in Israel in particular, you know, there are two camps. One camp is very much outraged about this mou and the other camp is very relaxed, saying essentially they're not going to have a final deal. So if I were to outline anything that's very important about this MOU is that, number one, it's not a final deal and it outlines 60 days for negotiations on things like the nuclear program. But apart from that, the provisions within the MoU, which have stirred a lot of, I think, contention, include things like the extent of the Iran US ceasefire. So this is a document between Iran and the United States. There are no other signatories to this apart from Pakistan as the, the mediator. And it does say essentially that this truce or this cessation of, of hostilities extends to their allies, their respective allies in this war. And that's very important because that means essentially Israel is a party to this document. Even even though Israel hasn't been in the negotiations. Israel didn't sign this. And one of the provisions in paragraph one, for instance, is that Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty must be ensured. And that, for instance, fighting extends to, for instance, Lebanon as well. And this is going to be one big test, I think, for this MoU, one of the initial tests, which is Israel going to adhere to paragraph one. It can argue that, for instance, that this still has nothing to to do with this. We didn't sign this document and we're not going to put up with it. And that's going to be a big problem for Trump, I think. How is he going to deal with that, especially with the domestic political firestorm he's facing right now for having agreed to this mou. So that's just one of many points that I would raise.
- [61:14]
Saagar Enjeti
Very good point. By the way, this morning Israeli media Netanyahu says we are not bound by the agreement. So that doesn't exactly take a genius to see that one coming. Can we put C3 where we have the draft compared to the final image up here on the screen? Because there are a couple of interesting flags that we have here. Our producers created this graphic where in the original draft they actually added an explicit pledge to protect Lebanese sovereignty. In Article 4, they said that the US will only begin removal at signing and will fully end the blockade at a 30 day deadline. In Article 5, they explicitly added a line where they said that free passage will resume only only for 60 days under the Memorandum of Understanding, which opens up the door to charging tolls through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and oman. In Article 7 they write about sanctions. It adds a mutual pledge to, quote, immediately address the sanctions issue once talks start. And then Article 8, perhaps the most important, they say a same reaffirmation but now specifically a minimum method of on site down blending under IAEA supervision of enrichment to talks added to what do you make of these concessions given obviously by the United States at the last minute in the final memorandum understanding compared to the draft which had been released some 24 hours earlier.
- [62:35]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
So we reported a couple of days ago on this provision in paragraph one that got to do with Lebanon specifically. It's about again ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. And the Iranian side kind of insisted that that they had managed to get that language in there as a direct result of the Israeli attack on Beirut. So just as a kind of quick backdrop, Iran had put out a red line saying that any Israeli attack on the Lebanese capital would warrant a direct response from Iran against Israel. This kind of triangular pattern. And I think just when the US and Iran were on the cusp of signing this MoU the Israelis launched this attack on Beirut, probably calculating, probably knowing, knowing that Iran is going to hit back. And Iran that night was loading its missiles, the launchers were being loaded, and it was on that level, apparently. And they managed, through the direct intervention of Trump, a number of concessions by the United States come to an agreement, and they did not fire anything at Israel that night. So that kind of gambit by Netanyahu seems to have backfired in the sense that some of these concessions that you, that you outline, including Lebanon specifically, appear to have been a direct result of this kind of gambit by Netanyahu trying to goad Iran into attacking and then for him to then strike back at Iran, obviously get that dynamic going and kind of try to derail Iran, U.S. diplomacy. That's the kind of essence of, of the dynamic there. I think another thing he attempted with that operation by hitting Beirut was to say essentially what he's doing now, that Hezbollah is for us a national security issue. It's got nothing to do with the United States. Whether anything you sign with Iran is not going to apply to us. We're not going to pay attention, attention to that. And, you know, he has a right to do that. He's the leader of Israel, he's a leader of a different country. But then he needs to also accept that there's going to be costs for that. You know, Israel's ability to fight this war relies a lot on the United States. If he doesn't want the US Involved in any kind of diplomacy to do with Israel or the region, then, you know, it'd be difficult for him to argue. Then you need to give me all the possible support, political support, military support, having actual US forces, trade stations inside, inside Israel operating missile defense, etc. Things like that. So it's putting him in an awkward position. And having said that, I think what we need to really keep in mind, again, I hate to be repetitive, that this is a, this is mou. It's not a final deal. There are a lot of negotiations ahead. There are a lot of heated reactions right now to a lot of provisions in there. What we need to just try to keep in mind again is that this story, this episode about how this language about Lebanon was in store asserted there, it holds an important lesson that maybe on the previous US Administrations, Israel was quite adept at playing the White House, frankly, to try to kind of threaten something and get something out of them. And now Iran is kind of doing the opposite.
- [65:22]
Pets Best Insurance Advertiser
Right.
- [65:24]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
And it's interesting that just yesterday, I think the day before Hillary Clinton went out and essentially said that the Israelis, during her term as Secretary of State, you know, they used to do this kind of stuff all the time, saying that we're going to attack Iran, we have planes on the tarmac. And she would just say, you know, know, you, you guys go ahead. And it'd be interesting if Trump were to do the same thing now after this incident in Beirut, if Netanyahu is to say, no, I don't care what you guys are going to do, I'm going to go ahead and bomb Beirut. And what if Trump just says, go ahead.
- [65:50]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, be our guest.
- [65:51]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
Yeah, yeah.
- [65:52]
Saagar Enjeti
Make sure you have some Thaad missiles too, to shoot down some missiles whenever the time comes. We wish you the best of luck
- [65:59]
Krystal Ball
lingering on Lebanon here for a moment. And the first provision where this language about, quote, ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon, Lebanon appears in the final draft. It didn't appear in the earlier draft that was leaked to American media outlets. Do the Iranians, you think, interpret that as a demand for the IDF not only to stop bombing and attacking, but also to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon?
- [66:25]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
So we have reports saying that Hezbollah apparently has been informed by the Iranians that a final deal, again, keep in mind, this is not the final deal. This is mou. The final deal with, with the United States will entail an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. And that's where the language about territorial integrity and sovereignty come in. You can't have sovereignty with foreign forces on your soil. That's not sovereignty. Sovereignty literally is defined as monopoly and violence within your, your boundaries, your territorial boundaries. Right. So I think that's the, that's the kind of long term gain. That's what they're looking at down the line. Again, we don't know how long these negotiations on the final deal are going to continue. We know there's a 60 day period, but it says extendable by mutual consent. Right. So we don't have a clear timeline. What we do know that is that the end game is Israel needs to leave Lebanon. And you know, frankly, I'm, I'm not sure whether that's, that's against Israeli interests. Israel spent 18 years in Lebanon until the early 2000s, you know, and there, I don't think they want to stay in there. There's not really much for them there. They're just exposed right now. They're facing a lot of different difficulties with things like the, these new drones that Hezbollah is firing at them on a daily basis. It's not a good situation. I think for Israel, it's Much more. How can I put this advantageous to, to finally launch airstrikes etc from behind the border. Right. They can do that. They can continue doing that. But having forces on the ground puts them at great vulnerability. A lot of political risk and direct confrontation with the United States.
- [67:56]
Saagar Enjeti
So against them, you're assuming they think, think rationally.
- [67:59]
Krystal Ball
Well, it gives them kind of, you're saying it gives them kind of an excuse to retreat without it being labeled as such. Oh, the Americans are forcing us into it. But to your point, they've been sustaining significant losses in, in Lebanon, much more so than what they were expecting.
- [68:11]
Guest Commentator
Yeah.
- [68:12]
Saagar Enjeti
Mohammed, I do want to get your reaction to C4. We can put it up here on the screen. I'm curious from your perspective, whenever you're talking with international sources here in the United States, we are already watching a deep state effort to try and torpedo elements of the Memorandum of understanding and an eventual deal. So recently the State Department actually told Congress that Iran's oil exports are, quote, a primary revenue source for terrorism financing, which is hours after the US And Iran signed the memorandum that included oil sanctions relief. And Trump is downplaying Iran's behavior. The reason why this matters is if by reporting that, they actually are making themselves subject to congressional review if they want to try, try and take some sanctions off. And there's significant domestic elements here in the US Specifically headed by Marco Rubio here, obviously, which could easily technically derail the details. What I'm curious for you is how do the Iranians see the actual capability of getting across a finish line as well as some of the other regional sources that you've spoken to?
- [69:13]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
So Iran, I think the way it approaches things like sanctions relief is that it will rely heavily on waivers. Our president, presidential waivers.
- [69:20]
Saagar Enjeti
Okay.
- [69:21]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
That's the way they look at things. Ultimately, they understand that Congress is going to be difficult and then that prior to November, Trump can push things through. But after November, it's going to be much more difficult. And we're seeing one layer to that in the reactions to this MOU by the Democrats who have opposed this war. But now that there's an actual cessation of hostilities, now that there's actual document to get find a way out of this conflict, conflict, they're among the loudest voices were opposed to this document, you know, screaming that Trump is handing over X and Y, etc. So that's kind of giving us a sense of congressional action is going to be difficult as soon as you get it done, the better. But first and foremost is reliance on presidential waivers to kind of get a lot of the sanctions relief through. But I think zooming out further, the number one calculation I think, on the part of B1 is if we manage to get a deal that is implemented, that's a win. If we don't manage to get a deal because of subterfuge or what have you, on the part of the United States, that's also a win because we managed to make clear to our own people that we're not the problem here. Right. So in case there is a resumption of hostilities, then they're going to basically be able to count on popular support that they wouldn't if, if it became quite clear that they're not being rational, they don't want to negotiate a solution to do all of this, etc. So I think the way they're approaching sanctions relief is it's a win win. We get it, we win. If we don't get it because of US Inaction or what, when domestic politics, that's also a win for us, it just shows we can make a deal with the United States.
- [70:50]
Krystal Ball
What do you see as the most difficult sticking points over the next 60 days in terms of securing a final deal?
- [70:59]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
So, I mean, there are some. It's quite interesting, some of Trump's remarks yesterday. He was quite honest for the first time. I think he was just saying things like, like, you know, you can't, you can't tell Iran not to have any kind of nuclear program and then its neighbors have it and missiles and these kinds of things. I think there's going to be a lot of push and pull about the details of things like the enrichment, the uranium enrichment. I think that can be solved. They had a solution prior to this war, which was basically for Iran to engage in a international consortium on its soil with a bunch of its neighbors to basically have a multinational operation going to make sure, sure that there's maximum transparency, it's going to be any kind of diversion of the nuclear program for weaponization. I think there's a solution for that. I think when you look at things like terrorism financing, of course there's a domestic political element to it that has to do with sanctions relief. But I think another element to it is an attempt to shape the framework of these negotiations. If you look at the MoU, there are a couple of things in there which stand out in terms of they're missing. Number one is missiles. Number two is this kind of Iran's regional alliance network, how it's going to approach that. So I think in these negotiations, we're going to possibly see some attempts to put these things on agenda. But again, it's quite confusing because Trump is so openly now going out and saying that Iran has to be able to defend itself. We can't have a situation with Iran whereby it can't defend itself. And here we're going to see the influence and possibly even the limits of what Israel and its kind of allies in Washington can achieve. Because we understand, understand that prior to this war, there was a lot of talk about the nuclear program being an imminent threat. And as soon as the war had begun and things started going wrong, we saw Netanyahu go out and say, well, hold on, it wasn't the nuclear issue. In fact, it was the missiles that Iran had, X amount of missiles that were going to fire at us, which would be the equivalent of a nuclear bomb.
- [72:50]
Orderly Meds Advertiser
Right.
- [72:50]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
And now that Iran has had this war and it's found that missiles are basically its only real means of deterrence and defense, they're not going to give them up. So is that going to be the Achilles heel of these kinds of negotiations? We don't know. We're going to find out in the next 60 days or so.
- [73:05]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Because the fact Trump says something today doesn't mean he won't say something different tomorrow. We've seen the Israelis in the past be successful at inserting new red lines into negotiations that end up being poison pills. So that certainly is a possibility. I'm curious, just lastly from me, you mentioned that there's one camp of Israelis that are really freaking out. We've shared some of their commentary on this show, so our audience will be very familiar with that viewpoint. You said there's another faction that's kind of relaxed because they're like, yeah, that's never going to be a deal. Don't worry about it. We're going to be going back to war. It's going to be fine. What do you think is giving them that confidence?
- [73:41]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
I think based on what I've read, the people in the security circles and intelligence, they're essentially saying that their read of Iran, their understanding of Iran, is that these bottom lines they have on things like the nuclear program or things like the real regional policies, such as the also the missile program, they're not going to budge on them. Fundamentally, these are points that they've been quite stubborn on for the past 20 years. They may be right. They may also be wrong because there's been one big change in Iran because we've changed from one Khamenei to the, to another right. There has been a regime change, just not the kind of regime change that the United States and Israel may have liked.
- [74:22]
Guest Commentator
Right.
- [74:23]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
So we don't know what this new leadership, how pragmatic they may, may be on things like the nuclear issue, things like regional alliance networks, we have no idea. So I think this is a kind of a black box right now. And again we're just going to have to wait and see and time will tell to what extent Iran, United States can be flexible in the relations. What we do know is that the former supreme leader of Iran, 86 year old Ali Khamenei, he was quite stringent on certain things and now he's gone and we don't know how Iran's bottom line going to have changed.
- [74:54]
Guest Commentator
Right.
- [74:54]
Saagar Enjeti
Really, really good point. Well, Muhammad, so insightful. Thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it.
- [75:00]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
Thank you so much for having me.
- [75:18]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
Paramount plus is now the home of all your BET favorites.
- [75:21]
Saagar Enjeti
What?
- [75:21]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
Yes, with all new episodes of Tyler Perry's Divorce, sisters you've always liked, a little drama, plus a whole new world of movies like Gladiator 2.
- [75:29]
Guest Commentator
Now I will control an empire.
- [75:32]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
Original series like the Shy.
- [75:33]
Mohammed Ali Shabani
Just make sure we protect each other.
- [75:35]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
And live sports like ufc.
- [75:38]
Guest Commentator
Welcome to the history books.
- [75:40]
Boost Mobile Advertiser
New home, same family. Your BET favorites are now on Paramount. Subscribe Now.
- [75:47]
Odoo Advertiser
Running a business shouldn't feel like surviving a software group problem project. One app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to each other. That's where Odoo comes in. An all in one business management software that brings every part of your business together from sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, all in one powerful platform. No messy integrations, no bouncing between tabs, and best of all, no spreadsheets. Stop managing software and start managing your business with one unified, simple system. Try for free today at odoo.com iheartradio that's O-O-O-O.com iheartradio Lot support through telehealth,
- [76:31]
Podcast Advertiser
but it feels overwhelming and rushed. Check out orderlymeds.com now. Orderlymeds.com was built to be different. Here you connect with real doctors who take the time to understand your goals, review your eligibility, and guide you through a plan that's right for you. Orderly Medicine Meds provides access to proven GLP1 medications like semaglutide and Tirzepatide, including both name brand options and personalized compound versions when appropriate. So you have choices backed by clinical oversight, not guesswork. It's a simpler, more supportive telehealth experience designed around people who want clarity, care and confidence in their weight loss journey. And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging so your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research, ask the right questions, then visit orderlymeds.com podcast for an exclusive offer. Again, that's orderlymeds.com podcast. Individual results may vary.
- [77:26]
Pets Best Insurance Advertiser
Not medical advice. Eligibility required.
- [77:28]
Podcast Advertiser
See Cite for details.
- [77:30]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.