6/2/26: Dave Rubin Humiliated On Jubilee, California Gov Showdown, LA Mayors Race

Summary

---

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: Dave Rubin Humiliated On Jubilee, California Gov Showdown, LA Mayors Race
Date: June 2, 2026

---

Episode Overview

Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti, joined by guest David Dayen, take on three main topics: Dave Rubin’s controversial appearance on Jubilee regarding the Iran war, an in-depth analysis of California's gubernatorial and primary races, and the heated contest for Los Angeles Mayor. Through clear-eyed, often biting analysis, the hosts dissect media narratives, call out political spin, and highlight the dysfunctions—and rare innovations—of California’s political scene.

---

1. Dave Rubin on Jubilee: Humiliation over Iran War (02:21–12:23)

Theme:
The hosts open with a discussion of Dave Rubin’s now-infamous appearance on Jubilee, where his arguments defending Trump’s Iran war policy are decisively dismantled by other panelists—and then further by Krystal, Saagar, and David Dayen with ample ridicule and fact-checking.

Key Discussion Points

• Rubin’s Defense of the Iran War:
  Rubin calls the Iran conflict merely "a 40 day military operation that stopped an apocalyptic regime from getting a nuclear bomb," dismissing civilian casualties as unfortunate collateral.

  “Things happen in war, right?” – Dave Rubin (03:10)

• Fact-Checking on Nuclear Enrichment:
  The hosts and guest David Dayen point out Trump’s tearing up of the Iran nuclear deal led to enrichment increases, not the other way around, correcting Rubin’s narrative.

  “Iran did not enrich past the 3.67% in the JCPOA. They only got to 60% after Donald Trump left that deal.” – Krystal Ball (03:36)

• Economic Metrics Debate:
  Rubin flounders when asked for Trump's economic successes by objective measures (GDP, inflation, unemployment), instead pivoting to stock market performance and tariffs—none of which stack up against the facts presented.

• Memorable Mockery:
  Krystal and Saagar openly ridicule Rubin’s performance:

  “This is like a humiliation kink or something...” – Krystal Ball (04:56)
  “Getting owned by a guy with a paisley shirt.” – Saagar Enjeti (05:02)
  “The metric that has gotten better under Trump is Trump's wealth.” – Saagar Enjeti (05:12)

• War Cheerleading and Moving Goalposts:
  Krystal notes how war advocates now have to admit every military and political prediction failed, having "nothing" left as the reality of the Iran conflict unfolds.

Notable Quotes

• On Proclamations of Military Success:

  “All of the war's cheerleaders have gone from this is the greatest war in history, the most incredible military campaign—we are winning on the ground—to now having to backtrack... It's just a complete and a total humiliation.” – Krystal Ball (06:15)

• On Owning Up to Being Wrong:

  “It’s fine to be wrong. I publicly said I didn’t think that Putin would invade Ukraine... I was wrong. You need to reassess your beliefs and come clean.” – Krystal Ball (09:55)

Timestamps

• Rubin's Jubilee clip & Iran argument: 02:40–03:45
• Panel humiliation and fact-check: 03:45–05:39
• "Rubin Mashup" montage—Rubin’s overconfident, wrong predictions: 07:23–09:44
• Discussion on accountability in punditry: 09:55–12:23

---

2. California Elections Deep Dive (14:24–41:32)

Theme:
A thorough look at the California governor’s race, House primaries, and the strategic machinations of state party insiders, with guest expert David Dayen providing crucial local knowledge.

Gubernatorial Race

Key Points

• Lack of an Establishment Frontrunner:
  This is the first California gubernatorial race in 20 years without a clear "machine" candidate from the start.

  “There was just this emptiness… they just anoint somebody. Finally, the consultant class… moved to Eric Swalwell, that didn’t work out… then to Javier Becerra.” – David Dayen (17:32)

• Javier Becerra’s Candidacy:
  Becerra, former HHS secretary and a machine politician with “zero juice,” is described as uninspiring, kept afloat by identity politics and party maneuvering (18:57).

• Tom Steyer’s Campaign and Influencers:
  Controversy over Steyer’s use of paid influencers. When pressed by producer Griffin, Steyer claims they pay small business influencers for their time, not endorsements, but Krystal and Saagar point out the hypocrisy and the influence of money in shaping positive coverage (21:12–24:19).

• Republican Dynamics (Steve Hilton & Chad Bianco):
  Trump’s endorsement of Hilton ensured one main Republican contender, but there’s still a risk of a Democrat-vs-Democrat general due to California’s jungle primary system (24:26–27:13).

• Election Mechanics and Ballot Issues:
  With 61 (!) candidates, double ballots, slow vote counts, and recent Supreme Court changes to ballot deadlines, confusion is expected and may impact turnout and outcome (27:29–30:35).

Quotes

• On Influence Campaigns:

  “We’re not paying anyone for endorsements or outcomes.” – Tom Steyer, campaign event (22:28)
  “I’m hiring people—unspoken part—who are already saying nice things about me to continue to say nice things about me.” – Saagar Enjeti (24:17)

Key House Races

• San Francisco’s Contentious Primary:
  Connie Chan (progressive with Pelosi’s endorsement) vs. AOC’s former chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti and establishment-backed Scott Wiener. Chan is narrowly poised to take second place, with super PAC money and neighborhood politics playing pivotal roles (33:13–34:41).

• Central Valley Swing Seat (Valadao, Villegas, Baines):
  A rare Hispanic candidate (Villegas, Bernie-endorsed progressive) aims to win in a 73% Hispanic district, while Jasmine Baines, backed by corporate PACs and party leadership, walks back “genocide” statements under national scrutiny (35:00–37:22).

• CA-49 (Campanijar & the crowded Dem field):
  A risk that, thanks to too many Democrats and a strong county Republican, both top-two primary winners could be Republicans—despite Democrats’ hopes for a pickup (37:46–39:27).

---

3. Los Angeles Mayoral Race (41:32–51:40)

Theme:
An uncommonly dynamic LA mayoral primary, dominated by online influencer Spencer Pratt, progressive city councilor Nithya Raman, and incumbent Karen Bass.

Key Discussion Points

• Spencer Pratt’s Online Surge:
  Pratt runs a Trumpian-tinged, social-media-heavy campaign, directly targeting leftist Nithya Raman and trying to unify anti-establishment and right-leaning sentiment.

  “You can either vote for me to change all that insanity to city, or you can see Karen Bass visit more destruction on our city…” – Spencer Pratt (42:13)

• Nithya Raman’s Campaign:
  Raman, DSA affiliate but without their official backing, enters the race last minute. Her campaign is described as “fairly dispirited,” and she faces competition from DSA member Ray Huang (44:19–47:12).

• Karen Bass as the Establishment:
  Bass, “damaged but likely to advance,” blames unsafe encampments and attacks Pratt as a “reality TV villain.” The hosts call out the inertia and anointment culture of LA/California politics (50:29–51:10).

• Strategic Voting and Runoff Uncertainty:
  The race could yield a surprising Bass-Raman or Bass-Pratt runoff given the close polling:

  “Latest poll shows almost a three-way tie: Bass at 26, Rahman at 25, Pratt at 22.” – David Dayen (45:36)

Quotes

• On Los Angeles’s deeper issues:

  “It’s basically a Rust Belt community if you think about it that way... The industry is gone.” – David Dayen (49:19)

• On machine politics:

  “Not having. Being effective is not a hindrance to moving up through the institution.” – David Dayen (51:10)

---

4. California Politics – Larger Reflections (51:40–End)

Theme:
A dissection of California's structural yet stagnant political machine, the state’s underwhelming leadership pipeline, and the paradox of immense innovation capacity paired with political inertia.

Highlights

• Krystal and Saagar critique the "automatic promotion" of party insiders, who move up regardless of competence.
• David Dayen points to Prop 13’s enduring damage to local government finances, noting Steyer is the only top candidate discussing it.
• Despite being America’s most innovative and beautiful state, according to the hosts, California’s "machine" system prevents real leadership reform.

Memorable Closing Quotes

“Start over. Break it up.” – Saagar Enjeti, on frustrations with CA governance (52:49)
“The elements are here for really an incredible continuing series of innovation and change and a sort of way in which California can lead the way. It’s just its political system is kind of inert.” – David Dayen (53:00)

---

Key Timestamps

• Dave Rubin’s Iran War Take/Humiliation: 02:21–12:23
• CA Governor’s Race (Becerra, Steyer, Hilton): 14:24–30:40
• House Races (SF, Central Valley, CA-49): 32:36–39:27
• LA Mayor’s Race Deep Dive: 41:32–51:40
• California’s Big Political Picture: 51:40–53:40

---

Summary Table of CA Key Races Discussed

| Race | Major Players | Key Dynamics / Insight | |----------------------------|-----------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | Governor (CA) | Becerra, Steyer, Hilton | No “anointed” leader; paid influencer drama; Steyer injects issues, establishment pushes Becerra; GOP risks lockout | | LA Mayor | Bass, Raman, Pratt | Incumbent struggles; Pratt as right-wing disruptor, Raman as left/progressive with limited enthusiasm | | SF Congress | Chan, Chakrabarti, Wiener | Identity, money, activism, super PAC controversy | | Central Valley Congress | Valadao (R), Villegas, Baines| High-stakes identity and progressive v. establishment fight | | CA-49 | Campanijar | Dems risk splitting vote, two Republicans could advance |

---

Final Thoughts

This episode is classic Breaking Points: unsparing in calling out political failures (from Dave Rubin’s “humiliation” to California’s machine politics), packed with local color (from LA’s split progressive scene to the intricacies of a 61-candidate ballot), and always laced with sarcastic, self-aware commentary.

For listeners seeking authenticity, skepticism of official narratives, and clear breakdowns of complex races, this is a defining episode on the state of both California and national pundit culture.

Transcript

[David Dayen]

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything.

[Krystal Ball]

It's the rage bait.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It feels like it's trying to divide people. We got clear facts.

[Krystal Ball]

Maybe we could calm down a little.

[NBC News Anchor]

NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.

[Starbucks Advertiser]

What's up, y'?

[Tom Steyer Campaign Ad]

All?

[Starbucks Advertiser]

Summer's got a different tempo. Everything's a little looser, brighter. One plan turns into another. You hear something, you stay a little longer. Next thing you know, you're somewhere you didn't plan to be. It's those in between moments. That's where the ideas hit. Conversations stretch out. Little memories sneak up on you. Sometimes it's just about what's in your hand. That color, that chill. The new Tropical Butterfly refresher from Starbucks. Guava and passion fruit flavors with mango pineapple flavored pearls. Yeah, that feels like summer before you even taste it. Funny how one small stop becomes the best part of the day. Start your summer rhythm with Starbucks. Try the new Tropical Butterfly refresher from Starbucks.

[CarMax Advertiser]

Do you want to find a stress free way to buy your next car? Start at CarMax and shop your way. If you want to browse with confidence, get pre qualified online with no impact on your credit score and shop cars within your budget. From luxury cars to family rides, CarMax has options for almost every price range, including more than 25,000 cars priced under $25,000. So hey, want to get started? Just head to CarMax.com for details and get pre qualified today. Want to drive CarMax?

[Krystal Ball]

Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.

[Funko Pop Advertiser]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Krystal Ball]

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

[Funko Pop Advertiser]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see [e-mail] turning now to Dave Rubin really wowed us with his intellect with facts and logic. The jubilee surrounded on the Iran war. Let's take a listen.

[Dave Rubin]

Well, first off, the disastrous war, the quote unquote disastrous war that you're talking about, you're talking about a 40 day military operation that stopped an apocalyptic regime from getting a nuclear bomb.

[Krystal Ball]

So.

[Dave Rubin]

And exporting terrorism throughout the world. That. We're in a. We're now in a. We're now in an economic embargo of them. Right. We've basically done a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. So to say it's a disaster.

[CarMax Advertiser]

We've done a.

[Dave Rubin]

We did lose.

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

Hang on, hang on.

[Dave Rubin]

We did. We did lose 13. We did lose 13 of our soldiers, and that is.

[David Dayen]

And killed over 200 children.

[Dave Rubin]

But. Well, things happen in war, right?

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

Things.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Dave Rubin]

Well, things do happen.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Hold on, hold on.

[Dave Rubin]

Listen, you wait.

[David Dayen]

If Donald Trump wanted to prevent the

[Krystal Ball]

Islamic Republic of Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, he could have just stuck

[David Dayen]

with the Iran nuclear deal that he ripped up. Iran did not. Iran did not enrich past the 3.67. Wait, they didn't enrich past the 3.67% in the JCPOA.

[Krystal Ball]

They only got to 60% after Donald Trump left that deal.

[Dave Rubin]

I'm impressed with your talking points. You got impressive talking points and you memorize them. Well, they're not correct, but I am impressed.

[David Dayen]

Okay.

[Interviewer or Questioner]

What is one main metric that Donald Trump has made better off since he got in office? An example would be GDP, unemployment, inflation, etc.

[Dave Rubin]

Right. Now, first off, the big beautiful bill was just passed last year and it's kicking in now. Right? It's kicking in now. So we are see. We're going to now see results of that, like even the tariffs. All right, so let's do tariffs. Are you for or against tariffs?

[Interviewer or Questioner]

I'm against the universal tariffs. So what's the main metric that he made better off?

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

What?

[Interviewer or Questioner]

What's the main metric that he made better off? Gdp, unemployment, inflation. Do you have any idea?

[Krystal Ball]

Listen,

[Interviewer or Questioner]

I don't think you do.

[Dave Rubin]

Hold on. So you're arguing that things economically were

[Interviewer or Questioner]

better under Joe Biden at the end of his administration?

[Interjector or Commentator]

Yeah.

[Dave Rubin]

Can you give me an example of how.

[Interviewer or Questioner]

Yeah. GDP growth is better off. Real median wage growth is better off. Inflation was better off at the end of his administration. Unemployment was better off at the end of his administration. With the worst year of job growth in the past four years, just this last year under Trump's administration, the infl 3.8% year over year since Trump got in office, we're seeing all of those economic indicators become worse off. Can you tell me anything that he's done to make it better off? You say it's broken for Democrats. It sounds like it's broken right now. Under Trump.

[Dave Rubin]

Have you looked at the stock market?

[Interviewer or Questioner]

It's worse off in terms of growth in 2025 as compared to 2024. If you look at Joe Jones and S&P 500,

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, this is like a humiliation kink or something. I mean, that's unbelievable with a paper

[Saagar Enjeti]

getting owned by a guy with a paisley shirt.

[David Dayen]

I love it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That guy's my spirit animal. Also, Ruben missed the stat that is right in front of him.

[David Dayen]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The metric that has gotten better under Trump is Trump's wealth.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's very true.

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, he is three times, at least. He's now worth $6 billion. He was on the brink of destitution. He's now worth $6 billion. That's an incredible turnaround for Mr. Trump.

[Krystal Ball]

Like, wearing a clown suit could have done a better job. I'm serious. Like, playing an actor could have done a better job of articulating MAGA vision

[Saagar Enjeti]

of the war, would you say?

[Krystal Ball]

Actually, the easy one would be the border. That's what. That's what you always go with.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, the border's closed in a net migration. You just memorize the numbers and be like, here's what it was under Biden. Here's what it is today. Guy would shut up. He wouldn't even say anything. He'd probably bring up ice. You'd be like, okay, it's a separate story, but we're talking about the border, so even I could do that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Deportations.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, yeah, deportations. X number under Biden. And, you know, now it's under Trump. It's this, this, and this. And you don't have to support that, but that's one of the best things that he's done. Come on. Like, what are we doing Whenever it comes to Iran? What's amazing is he also had multiple. If you hadn't seen any of these where he previously had done an entire mashup of a government was gonna fall, and there was gonna be democracy, and the strait wasn't gonna be closed that long, and everybody had a plan, and all of this and then to show up, and it's just like a complete and a total humiliation. But that's the thing, is this is what they are reduced to. They have nothing. All of the war's cheerleaders have gone from this is the greatest war in history, the most incredible military campaign. We are winning on the ground, to now they have to be put in a position where Trump, by being so desperate for the ceasefire, has proven every single one of their military prognostications wrong, as well as their political prognostication regime's doing well. They're strong, actually. They still have their missile capacity. They have the drone capacity. They've established deterrence. They've closed the Strait of Hormuz. Like, what they're effectively reduced to is what we talked about earlier in the show this morning with Mark Levin being like, actually, I'm the same as George Washington and the colonists who want freedom. And that's why I continue to support the war with the. It's so crazy. It's crazy.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And maybe we can put at the end of the end of this block we had in post this amazing Rubin mashup that was circulating before this.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Which was here.

[Krystal Ball]

Wait, hold on. Let's just throw to it. Let's throw to it.

[Dave Rubin]

Allow me to make a prediction here in my prediction stuff. I'm not poly market, I'm not Kalshy, but I'm pretty good at predictions. And my prediction here is that everything that the media is now going to say about Iran's going to close the Strait of Hormuz and energy prices are going to go crazy. And all these, none of this is going to come to pass. Gas prices are coming down and will continue to come down. If the United States wants to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, which it does. And Donald Trump said we'll escort ships through if we have to, it's going to stay open. This is the leader of the Iranian opposition. He has been in exile. His name is Reza Pahlavi. We have shown you videos him before. He's the eldest son of the former Shah of Iran, and he likely is the next leader of Iran. This is the guy that by all accounts, when this war ends, will go in and he will be the leader. And again, it will be different. Just remember, it sounds like the Kurds are starting to enter the country with arms to help the people take out the last vestiges of the irg. There's a lot of good things happening. This is Iranians. And you can hear they are chanting, Bibi June, Bibi Netanyahu. In Iran, they are chanting praise for Benjamin Netanyahu. And when you take out Khamenei and you take out his number two and his number three and his number four and his number 37 and his number 42, then suddenly the next guy's gone. It's a little hot in here. And then people start behaving a little bit differently. They've plotted this war, this extraordinary war that will be studied for decades. Right. For Decades. They will study how this incredible war took place. That's we are hitting critical infrastructure, we are damaging the regime. So hopefully the people will be able to take over their countries. Now, the question is, if you're going to hit power plants and you're going to hit civilian infrastructure and things of that nature, how do you make sure it's not going to harm the people, but just the regime? And when we have a department of War that is not looking for war, but will perform war, then we are going to do it at the maximum level of competency. I think the way you can look at this, I haven't heard anyone else say this, but this seems to me to be the war to end all wars.

[Saagar Enjeti]

A lot of people were wrong about the Iran war in a lot of different ways. Nobody was wrong in every single way with so much confidence than Dave Rubin.

[Tom Steyer Campaign Ad]

Here's the thing.

[Krystal Ball]

Can we say this, too? Look, it's fine to be wrong. I publicly said on camera I didn't think that Putin would invade Ukraine. I apologize for it. I was wrong. Totally wrong. A lot of my stuff, predictions or thoughts about how Trump was gonna go, I was wrong. I apologize for it here on the show. That's what you have to do if you wanna maintain some level of credibility. Let's see it. Dave, if you're gonna say publicly that things were gonna be so incredible and, oh, it's all gonna work out, so these plans and democracy, et cetera, and then when it falls completely flat or the opposite of what you said, true, you need to reassess your beliefs, man, and you need to come clean to a certain number of people.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, give us something.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Matt Walsh real quickly started another storm with a post, put this next up. He says, pretty much all of the prominent voices who supported the Iran war assured us it would be over by now. None of them will admit they were wrong. Even less will they admit that their initial assurances were based on nothing but their own wish. Casting this whole shit show has been an enormous waste of time and resources, and our country has not benefited from it at all. Its advocates have moved the goalpost repeatedly and have even to this day, refused to clearly articulate what constitutes a victory and how we'll know that it's been achieved. He's been. He's been pretty right about this from the beginning. Thomas Massie responded, I hope you get to keep your job after this post.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean, you know, it's like. And a bunch of people dunking for

[Saagar Enjeti]

working for Ben Shapiro, which is fair by the way.

[Krystal Ball]

It's entirely fair to say that. I mean, look, yes, he said the obvious in that. The question.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He's been right from the beginning. I'll give him that.

[Krystal Ball]

He certainly has. I'll give it to him as well. However, there needs to be an internal forcing mechanism to force those people who did make all of those prognostications to be apologize, to be contrite, and to say, look, every single thing you said was wrong. We can trust you in the future if you're willing to say I was wrong. Here's why I was wrong. This is my internal thought process. This, this, and this. I still wouldn't respect it because, frankly, there was a lot of evidence at the time. But whatever, all right? At the very least, it's a step in the right direction. This is nothing like they're still claiming. Like, what did he say? He's like, you got your talking points memorized. Every single thing that kid said was just a fact. Like, it wasn't even the talking point. The talking point was about how incredible the war has go, even though it is. Like, it's just. I mean, every. Even the honest neocons like Bob Kagan are like, greatest strategic defeat in military history. It's over. Checkmate. It's done.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And what we know is that 20 years from now, those same people will be urging us into another war somewhere. Probably the Middle east, but who knows where?

[Krystal Ball]

No, Turkey, remember?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, yeah, Turkey is next.

[Krystal Ball]

The meme is them. The meme that was circulating was them on their deathbeds saying, yes, we were right about the war with Iran, but we have got to deal with the Islamic Republic of Turkey. So, yeah, that's where we go. Okay, let's get to David Dan. He's standing by.

[David Dayen]

I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything.

[Krystal Ball]

It's the rage bait.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It feels like it's trying to divide people.

[Krystal Ball]

We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little.

[NBC News Anchor]

NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News, reporting for America, Ryan Reynolds

[David Dayen]

here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to [e-mail]

[Funko Pop Advertiser]

Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees, extra fee, full [e-mail] hey,

[Ryan Seacrest]

it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway for you. Save days are here now through June 23rd. Find hot deals throughout the store and earn four times a point. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Tostitos, Cascade Tide, Red Bull, Sparkling Ice and Ferrero. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings. When you shop in store or online for easy pickup or delivery restrictions apply. See the website for full terms and conditions.

[Saagar Enjeti]

All right, it's primary day. We have elections in what, New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico. But people care about California. Half our audience out in California.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes. Big, big, big chunking on it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And we have Californian Dave Dayan in the studio today. Welcome to Washington D.C. thank you.

[David Dayen]

How's it going?

[Krystal Ball]

Good to see you, man.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Lovely weather. Right. We're treating, we're doing well. Like a Californian here.

[David Dayen]

Doing all right.

[Krystal Ball]

He's got no tie on. Very California. Very California.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We can allow it for a California.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[David Dayen]

Ties are a construct.

[Krystal Ball]

It's true.

[Saagar Enjeti]

All right, so we've got the LA mayors raised, we've got the, the California governors race. You got a bunch of interesting House races among Democrats saga. And I were just talking about how it's interesting there virtually no Republican races, House Republican races.

[David Dayen]

One there's a member on member race in. Oh, because they got granted.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Because they got forced together with the

[David Dayen]

reducement and King Calvert. Yeah, got it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

All right, so let's start with the gubernatorial race. So how is it shaking out as you understand, like Tom Steyer, like has he consolidated enough kind of progressive energy that let's put the poll up there.

[David Dayen]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Talking.

[David Dayen]

I mean I think before the weekend the thought was okay, Steyr's probably going to come up short and it would be a Becerra Hilton general election.

[Krystal Ball]

That's what this fits with right here on the RCP average. But this is the last average of the last.

[David Dayen]

But the more recent the polls are, the more they have Steyer catching Hilton.

[Krystal Ball]

Interesting.

[David Dayen]

So that puts forward the possibility of a Becerra Steyer general election, which would be pretty interesting.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay, so let's talk then about that. So Becerra, obviously he was what he was HHS under Biden, kind of a California machine politician in terms of how we know him here. It was for this viral moment where he was doing an interview and he didn't want to be interviewed. So let's take a listen, and we'll get a reaction.

[David Dayen]

This is the start of our interview

[Funko Pop Advertiser]

with Javier Braceta in Highland Park.

[Saagar Enjeti]

By the way, this is a profile piece.

[David Dayen]

This is not a gotcha piece. Right.

[Tom Steyer Campaign Ad]

Well, look, I think we're.

[David Dayen]

These questions are fair. It's in order to learn about you as a candidate. The line's about the profile. I don't know how you define profile, but I'd like to begin the interview. The way I describe profile is you talk about all the things that I've done, things I want to do, and along with some tough questions. But not only tough questions.

[Krystal Ball]

This is a man who has been in professional politics his entire life.

[David Dayen]

I just want to lay out the same ground rules for this.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, okay.

[David Dayen]

This is a profile.

[Krystal Ball]

This is a profile. Right. Okay.

[David Dayen]

Tough ones.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, look, I don't think this stuff matters. You were just talking, you and I, before. A lot of people in California, there's not as much of a political culture. You're saying, well, particularly in Los Angeles. But I mean, it's got to have some impact, at least for, you know, among the activist base or people who are paying attention. Right.

[David Dayen]

It's been a really nutty race. So this is the first time in 20 years that we've entered a gubernatorial election without an establishment frontrunner candidate from the get go.

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

Okay.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay.

[David Dayen]

And, you know, we had Jerry Brown, then you had Gavin Newsom, and that's sort of been this sort of line of succession that we've had in California. When this race started, there was no. Everyone was waiting on Kamala Harris. Is she going to. She ends up saying no. Eleni Kunalakis, who was the lieutenant governor and scion of a rich family, they thought maybe she would be the heir apparent. She was getting absolutely no traction in the governor poll. She moved to run for state treasurer. They tried to dragoon Alex Padilla in the race. That didn't work out. He didn't come in. So there was just this emptiness in terms of. Usually this is a very machine. You mentioned machine. It's like a machine state. They just anoint somebody. Finally, the consultant class, around Newsom, around Brown, they move to Eric Swalwell, and that didn't work out. And then almost the day after, Eric Swalwell implodes, Many of those consultants say, hey, how about Javier Becerra? He was in the race. He was kind of languishing at 4%, 5% in the polls and they just run to him. And so they're trying to recreate this sort of establishment, you know, eat your peas kind of philosophy, but with someone who obviously is not a very articulate spokesman for the Democratic cause.

[Krystal Ball]

He's got zero juice.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And so we had this weird story of. You saw, all of a sudden, as Swalwell drops out, this massive kind of social media campaign to say, it's Becerra now.

[David Dayen]

I definitely saw it. Did you?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah.

[David Dayen]

I noticed that in real time, being extremely inorganic.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And it now appears that it certainly was inorganic. Yeah, it completely vanished within a week. Like, there's no such thing as an organic, like, becerramentum campaign that just all of a sudden they're like, actually, nevermind. So is somebody gonna go to jail for this? Like, because people in Becerra's orbit have, like, gone to jail, to be honest.

[David Dayen]

I mean, Steyer's paying influen.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Oh, we'll get to it. Don't worry.

[David Dayen]

There's inorganic all the way down. Right, Right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So maybe it's illegal. Ish. I mean, it's.

[David Dayen]

You know, I don't think there are any on the Wild West.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So did that really, like, did that get people to say, okay, you know what? I guess it is Becerra?

[David Dayen]

I think you can't divorce it from, frankly, the identity politics at the heart of this, that California has about 40% Latino voters. And. And there was kind of this dust up that happened in March that almost prefigures this is when Swalwell's still in the race. They said, okay, there was a USC debate, and they said, we're gonna take the top vote. You know, people top in the polls and top in fundraising, and they're gonna run. And it was all the white people. And everyone who was shut out of that race was Asian, African American or Latino. And that race, that. That debate ends up getting canceled.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Cancel culture.

[David Dayen]

Yeah. And so when Becerra kind of gets anointed, I think there's this sense that, okay, we're better than having just a bunch of white people that are in the.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You've got this white Hispanic guy, we've

[David Dayen]

got this other guy.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, exactly.

[David Dayen]

So I do think there's an identity aspect to it.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay, that's. That's well said. All right, let's get to our own. Griffin, our producer, confronted Tom Steyer over the Paid Influencers. Let's get to it.

[Griffin (Producer)]

I think people have a problem with billionaires. Cause they feel like that wealth should be redistributed. Elsewhere, but also because people feel like billionaires are a threat to our democracy. Now, some of your opponents have accused you of paying for influencer campaigns. Paying influencers to promote your campaign. Are you paying influencers?

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

And we have never paid for an endorsement. We pay people for their time. Their small business people, they can put up whatever they want. But we have.

[Griffin (Producer)]

Has any of it been negative?

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

I don't read it. I don't follow it, obviously. Look, and it could be. And that's not the problem. This is. We do this, and so does everybody else. It's just we do it openly and we report everything. And so the Becerra campaign, which has been running from answering questions from people like you, who've been running not to talk to reporters, not to answer questions from Californians, is saying, oh, you know, they're trying to change the subject. The topic in California is the people of California and why it's not working for the people of California when the state as a whole is killing it. That is the question. And they're scared to talk about that.

[Griffin (Producer)]

So you don't think if someone accepts money from the campaign that they would pull questions, do softball interviews? Obviously they'd gonna do positive content about you.

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

Look, they can do whatever they want, but we're not paying anyone for endorsements or outcomes.

[Griffin (Producer)]

But couldn't there be a bad billionaire that comes along and floods the race with influencers that are getting money from the campaign? Isn't that a dangerous precedent?

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

Well, let me put it this way. There have been billionaires who've run in California before, and they've always lost. There you go.

[Krystal Ball]

That's our okay.

[David Dayen]

That'll get used a lot. The outcome particularly.

[Krystal Ball]

He did a good job, Griffin. He held his feet to the fire. Steyer's like, well, you know, we don't pay for the endorsement. We just pay a lot of money. And then they happen to endorse us. Yeah, he's not wrong. Everybody does it.

[David Dayen]

Yeah. I mean, certainly that was kind of a ridiculous conversation, but, I mean, the kernel of truth is that Becerra doesn't really hold a lot of meetings with folks. And Steyer actually started this campaign by doing a ton of town halls. I've been to a few of them, and they are, to my knowledge, completely unscripted. In fact, I know it because I know people that ask questions, and he answers an hour and a half of questions off the top of his head. So Steyer is, you know, he is afforded the ability to try to run a retail politics in California because he has $200 million to raise money.

[Krystal Ball]

He's just so wealthy, he doesn't.

[David Dayen]

Exactly.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So, yeah, the other insidious part of this is that what he's saying there and what people understand is that he's like, no, no, I'm not telling them what to say. I'm hiring people, unspoken part, who are already saying nice things about me to continue to say nice things about me. And that's the insidious part, is that it then encourages countless influencers besides the ones that he has hired to just voluntarily say nice things about Steyer with

[David Dayen]

a pick me kind of a money grab.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Come pay me. Like, come, please pay me, and I'll keep doing this. So the whole thing's gross.

[Spencer Pratt]

But.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So let's talk about Steve Hilton for a second. So he's the Republican who's hoping. Oh, Wade, yes, yes, Steve Hilton. So he's hoping that he's going to, like, crack into the top two. Here he's got this Chad Bianco opponent who's trailing him. Let's roll this clip from Steve Hilton kind of encouraging Bianco supporters to get behind him.

[Interjector or Commentator]

It's a very, very tight race. Three people competing for two spots in the general election. Myself, Javier Becerra and Tom Steyer. Tom Steyer is catching up. There is absolutely no guarantee that we're going to get a Republican in the top two. In fact, it's now looking more and more likely that we'll have two Democrats in the top two. I know that many Republicans were holding on to the hope that we might have two Republicans in the top two, myself and Chad, and then we're guaranteed change in California. But if that was ever possible, it's certainly not possible today. You just have to look at the math. This is not personal. It's not about me or Chad or our qualities or our record or anything like that. It's about the future of California. And if we don't get a Republican in the top two, we have no chance for change.

[Krystal Ball]

So this is because of the jungle primary system. Bianco's got about 10%, as we showed a little bit earlier. If that were to combine with Hilton, then he would be the winner, or at least, you know, he'd get to the top two.

[David Dayen]

Right. And, you know, there was a lot of fear from Democrats early on in this race that we would actually have two Republicans, because you have pretty much eight viable Democrats at one point that were running and two viable Republicans. And you do the math. And if it was an even split among the Republicans, it would be hard for Democrats to, unless they consolidated the field on their own. But when Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, that was the end of the race for the Republicans. Essentially, Trump endorses Steve Hilton, Bianco falls down, and now there's no way to box out. The Democrats got it. And at that point it was, you know, I mean, Steve Hilton's talking about. I think it is important for other reasons that, you know, from a Republican perspective, they get in the top two. There's a billionaire tax on the ballot in November and that's going to be bad for turnout. There are a lot of contested seats in the House in November that's going to be bad for them if they have no standard bearer at the top.

[Krystal Ball]

That is a very important point, is that they'll have even less incentive to come to vote if there's not a single Republican in the top two.

[David Dayen]

Absolutely. And so it is important from that perspective for the party. But there's no way that Steve Hilton wins a one on one matchup against Becerra.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So why hasn't Bianco dropped out and endorsed Hilton? What's going on?

[David Dayen]

I mean, Bianco is kind of in his own, his own world.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Like today's, Today's election day.

[David Dayen]

Well, and the thing is, even if you dropped out now, you'd still be on the ballot.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right?

[David Dayen]

There are 61 gubernatorial candidates on the ballot. It runs over two pages of the ballot. One of the sort of hidden things here, I think is there's going to be a lot of ballot spoliation.

[Krystal Ball]

What does that mean?

[David Dayen]

It means that people are either gonna vote for nobody because they can't find their candidate among the 61, or they're on two pages. So like, oh, I'll vote for one here and I'll vote for one over here. And there's gonna be undervotes and there's gonna be overvotes and there's gonna be a lot of ballots thrown out. The other thing that you're going to see as the numbers come in is Democrats held their ballots to a degree that was fairly unprecedented. What do you mean by that? In Democratic politics, everybody gets a ballot from the state by mail at the beginning of the cycle, 30 days ago. Typically they come back. Some come back early, some come back later. What we see, because we can track this, Democrats were not turning back their ballots because they wanted to wait to see where the polls were, who people were going towards. Because Democrats were still scared about a top two that locked out Democrats. That would be Republican, Republican general election. And you can't do a write in ballot, by the way, under the top two system. So they were waiting to see what was going to happen. And in the last weekend, twice as many ballots as in the previous 25 days were sent in. They're now, it's now tracking higher than the 2022 election, higher than the 2018 election, which was a contested gubernatorial primary at the top. So, so now we're starting to see. But however, the way the votes are going to be counted, we're going to count all those ballots that came in earlier, which were disproportionately Republican. So as votes.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And with some of them before Trump's endorsement, some.

[David Dayen]

No, not, they actually weren't. But. So when the polls close tonight, Hilton's gonna be in the lead.

[Krystal Ball]

Got it. But how long are we, how long is this gonna take? Weeks.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Ridiculous.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay, can we get why, why does this take so long?

[David Dayen]

They're trying to streamline it, but. Well, I mean, actually it's a very interesting thing because the Supreme Court kind of changed the game on this. It used to be that your ballot had to be postmarked by election Day and it would count. So some of those ballots come in five days, six days, seven days, ten days later, and you got to count them. Now the Supreme Court ruled that actually the ballot has to show up on election Day. And there was a lot of chatter among, in my circles, among Democrats. You actually have to send. You can't send your ballot through the mail after a week ago, send it to the vote center, send it to the ballot, like go to the ballot box and then physically drop it in. So I think there's also going to be a lot of people who didn't learn that and their ballot isn't going to count. So there's like a lot of weird factors in this race.

[Krystal Ball]

What do you think this is bullish for? If you like bullish for the last week.

[David Dayen]

That's a good question. I mean, I think lower information voters who don't know where to find their guy on the ballot, who don't sort of follow directions very well and are marking multiple ballots, or who don't understand you could drop it in the mail and it just doesn't show up and you don't get counted. I don't know who that favors necessarily. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything.

[Krystal Ball]

It's the rage bait.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It feels like it's trying to divide people.

[Krystal Ball]

We got clear facts. Maybe, maybe we could calm down A

[Funko Pop Advertiser]

little

[NBC News Anchor]

NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway for you. Save days are here now through June 23rd. Find hot deals throughout the store and earn four times a point. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Tostitos, Cascades, Tide, Red Bull, Sparkling Ice and Ferrero. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy pickup or delivery restrictions apply. See the website for full terms and conditions.

[Funko Pop Advertiser]

This year, it's Pop's turn for a laugh. So celebrate Father's Day with a gift that really pops. A customized Funko Pop of him. First, think of all the time things that make your dad the man. Then turn those ideas into a personalized Funko Pop. Select hair, clothing and skin tone options to match his fit. Don't forget to show off his favorite hobbies and sports with amazing accessories. You can even add his best friend. Start Creating [e-mail] Be unique, not anyone else.

[David Dayen]

Express it now. Just pop yourself.

[Funko Pop Advertiser]

That's Funko.com

[Saagar Enjeti]

wanted to get a get your sense on a couple of the the California House races. First of all, for people who don't know New Jersey, Adam Hamaway versus Sue Altman, that's kind of the biggest kind of house race being watched.

[David Dayen]

Montana.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That one. Yeah. Montana Horstag. Horstag has AOC's endorsement, but probably splits the progressive vote and loses.

[David Dayen]

Right?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Gonna be interesting. Put up E7. Here we have a whole bunch of different races. House races. You've got San Francisco, you got Shortcut, Chakrabarti, Scott Wiener, Connie Chan.

[David Dayen]

Yeah,

[Saagar Enjeti]

quickly on that one. How do you see that one? AOC's former chief of staff, Connie Chan is progressive but has Nancy Pelosi's endorsement, Schiff's endorsement. And so people like I went up

[David Dayen]

there and actually talked to all three of them for a piece I did a few weeks ago. That was at a time when Chan was hoping that labor was going to drag her across the finish line to get into second place. She was being massively outspent. I think chakraborty has put 10 million, I think it was some money in it. And Weiner has about 4 million plus a lot of super PAC support. But in the last few weeks when Pelosi endorsed, that was a safe right. Like you guys can come in and she's gotten. You've reported on some of the super PAC help that she's gotten. I think it's more that there's. San Francisco's a city of neighborhoods, and she, you know, is big in the Richmond, the sort of more working class, somewhat more conservative. Even though she's running as a progressive and Asian American. Heavily Asian American. That's hard to pull. So she's kind of been neck and neck with Chakrabarti for second place. Everyone believes Wiener's gonna get to the runoff. I think she has actually a pretty good shot of getting into second.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I think so, too. And we reported over the weekend that one of these super PACs backing her, that network had gotten APAC money and it's created this big controversy.

[David Dayen]

It's not just her race. There are actually three races in California that have gotten money from the EDW fund.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Is the other one Randy Villegas?

[David Dayen]

One of them is Randy. Where. Jasmine Baines. So this is a really interesting race because there are only three people on the ballot. So two of those three are getting in. One is the incumbent, David Valadao. This is a swing seat, but it's a weird swing seat. It's not a swing seat.

[Krystal Ball]

Bakersfield.

[David Dayen]

Yes. It's Central Valley. It's one of the poorest seats in the entire country. It's one of the highest concentrations of Medicaid in the entire country. Valadao famously voted, said he would not vote for Medicaid cuts and then did vote for Medicaid cuts. So he's in huge trouble in this race. And it's 73% Hispanic. Democrats have never run a Hispanic candidate in this race, which is crazy. Right?

[Saagar Enjeti]

They love identity politics.

[David Dayen]

Except here. So Villegas is one, but he's progressive populist, endorsed by Bernie.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Identity politics. Unless you're a populist.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[David Dayen]

Yeah. And Jasmine Baines is Indian American. She's a conservative member of the state Assembly. She's voted in. She voted against Prop 50, which is crazy. She voted against, you know, the offset of the Texas gerrymander. But she also has voted substantively in a host of ways with corporate interest. She actually has received corporate pac money from 53 of the same PACs that Valadao has received corporate PAC money from. And so this is a.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And has the support of Washington Democrats like the dccc.

[David Dayen]

DCCC came in, put her on the Red to Blue program that incensed locals in the district who actually had been, you know, sort of the local Democratic clubs and stuff, had been on Valle Villegas side. So this is a real soul of the party race. I think it's one of the most interesting races on the ballast. It who can win in a swing seat, but a very particular kind of swing seat. Is it a progressive populace who can grow the base and who can speak to the actual depravity that is going on in the district? Or is it the usual outfit, find a moderate, find a corporate Democrat and win?

[Saagar Enjeti]

And this is a fascinating race where Jasmy Baines had said that Israel was committing a genocide in Gaza and then the DCCC and Democratic majority for Israel come in to support her and she's like, oh, I misheard the question. I don't mean that did.

[David Dayen]

I forgot about genocide.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, genocide. I forgot.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It's not as if she doesn't know what a genocide is. She famously sponsored a resolution in California declaring the massacre of like 30 to 50,000 Sikhs in India to be a genocide. So that's a genocide. Interesting, but multiples of that. Then we've got Amar Khampa Najar. He probably.

[David Dayen]

This is. So this race I have some connection to because I spend part of my year in Palm Springs. And in Prop 50, they changed the district. So this was Darrell Issa's district. It was based in San Diego. So in the gerrymander, they took a little sliver and went up to Palm Springs and made that part of the district, which is a Democratic vote sink. So I was there in the last week and I saw no evidence that there was an election going on. All of the candidates are from the San Diego part of the district, the Democrats. I was at multiple events where, you know, people who are Democrats are all over the place and a Democrat should be there to try to get votes. In the last week before the election, and no one was there and nothing was involved. The only person you know, there's about half dozen Democrats running. The only one with any connection to Palm Springs. His only previous race was for lieutenant governor of Vermont. So not much connection to the Democratic part of the district. And you know, Campanijar, it's kind of a comical story.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Every two years, he.

[David Dayen]

He runs in a different way. He's the boyfriend of Sarah Jacobs. Sarah Jacobs, his family heir to the Qualcomm fortune has put together a huge super PAC on his behalf.

[Krystal Ball]

That's very nice.

[David Dayen]

That's very sweet.

[Krystal Ball]

They're not even married in their back.

[David Dayen]

There is a very strong possibility that the top two Republicans that we are fear. That Democrats are fearing in the gubernatorial race that that happens in this race. There are two Republicans running and about seven or eight Democrats.

[Krystal Ball]

Democrats.

[David Dayen]

And this is one of the five seats that under Prop 50, Democrats thought they were going to pick up. And when Issa dropped out, they thought even more so. But Democrats found or Republicans found a viable alternative, a city councilor from or a board of county supervisor in San Diego named Jim Desmond. And he's going to be a tough out, even if a Democrat makes the top two. And then there's this dynamic where they might actually split the, the split the vote and, and, and not succeed. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything.

[Ryan Seacrest]

It's the rage bait.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It feels like it's trying to divide people.

[Krystal Ball]

We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little.

[NBC News Anchor]

NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway for you. Save days are here now through June 23rd. Find hot deals throughout the store and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Keebler, General Mills, Lactaid, Jack Links, Cheez it, and Gatorade. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top savings. When you shop in store or online for easy pickup or delivery, restrictions apply. See the website for full terms and conditions.

[Funko Pop Advertiser]

This year, it's Pop's turn for a laugh. So celebrate Father's Day with a gift that really pops. A customized Funko Pop of him. First, think of all the things that make your dad the man. Then turn those ideas into a personalized Funko Pop. Select hair, clothing, and skin tone options to match his fit. Don't forget to show off his favorite hobbies and sports with amazing accessories. You can even add his best friend. Start creating [e-mail].

[David Dayen]

be unique, not anyone else. Express it now. Just pop yourself.

[Funko Pop Advertiser]

That's Funko.com all right.

[Krystal Ball]

We got to go to LA Mayor while we still have you. All right, let's do this all quickly. We can start. We have some of the closing ads from the major candidates. Here we've got Spencer Pratt, the online sensation. Let's take a look.

[Spencer Pratt]

I want to speak to those of you who are considering voting for Nithya Raman, but haven't yet. Obviously, you and I are in the same place. We all agree that Karen Bass has failed the city as mayor and we

[Tom Steyer Campaign Ad]

need change because Karen Bass is not doing. Shh.

[Spencer Pratt]

And For a moment, you thought Nithya would be an alternative. But since she collapsed at the debate, I don't.

[Tom Steyer Campaign Ad]

I'm not sure how to respond.

[Spencer Pratt]

And she's run a very weak campaign. She's doing live streams with the hateful, radical, anti Semite Hassan piker who believes we deserve 9 11. You've accepted the reality that she's not going to advance past the runoff. At this point, voting for Nithya is a wasted vote. It's me versus Karen. It's change versus more of the same. More homeless drug addicts in front of your schools. More animals being tortured and killed on the streets and in her city shelters. More empty reservoirs when the wildfires hit. More potholes. More of your favorite restaurants going out of business. No new housing getting built. You can either vote for me to change all that insanity to city, or you can see Karen Bass. Visit more destruction on our city and you can watch your social group erode as your friends move to Nashville or Miami or Austin. It's no longer a question about me or Nithya or Karen. Nithya has no path to victory. Now she talks about the city being broken, but she's been in city leadership for six years and failed to do anything. She is incredibly unpopular in her own district. She's not managed to accomplish anything in City Council, and she's been the chair of the Homelessness and Housing Committee for years. She's literally the one in charge of homelessness in la. How's she doing, folks? Look around. All of us know Nithya doesn't have it in her.

[Krystal Ball]

Interesting. You know, Spencer Pratt there, basically trying to pitch to the leftists who would support Nithya Raman, but also going after Hasan Piker, not really the strategy I would go with for the DSA crowd. Yeah, no, exactly. He should be like, you know, just don't vote for. Because we all hate Karen Bass and. And this is a message for that. So, I mean, what do you make, you know, you live in the area. The Pratt phenomenon, which you're saying is entirely online. I'm inclined to believe you, but tell us about it.

[David Dayen]

I feel it's a pretty online phenomenon. I mean, I think that Californians or Los Angelenos are definitely dissatisfied with Karen Bass. And when the race was setting up, it looked like nobody sort of viable was going to challenge her. Pratt has sort of leveraged the online stuff and Raman was not expected to run. She actually. It was a surprise run at the very last minute about, you know, an hour before the registration closed.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Wow.

[David Dayen]

She comes in and decides to run and she's, you know, she was the first candidate of DSA to win a city council district. She beat a sort of middle of the road guy in that district. But she has sort of broken with DSA on certain issues, particularly around housing, but other issues as well. Interesting. And she didn't get their endorsement that they, I think DSA said they'd recommend her. There is actually a DSA member who is running, a woman named Ray Huang, who Raman has sort of behind the scenes been trying to push out of the race. She's asked her to get out of the race, she's refusing to do so. Yeah, no, Wang is still in the race. So I feel like strategically there are a lot of Democrats thinking, okay, Bass is an incumbent, she's damaged goods, but she's probably gonna get into the runoff. So I'm sitting here. My choices are either Spencer Pratt or Nithya Raman. So we can have the conversation of who would be better for California and Los Angeles later. And we vote for Rahman there. The latest poll actually shows it almost a three way tie.

[Krystal Ball]

Interesting.

[David Dayen]

Bass at I think 26, Rahman at 25 and Pratt at 22. That's the last.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It'd be funny if strategic voting ended up pushing Bass to third.

[David Dayen]

Yeah, it'd be funny with a bunch

[Saagar Enjeti]

of Bass supporters end up voting for Vermont for Robin. Are there any, are there Republican districts that creep into la? Because if there's two Democrats on the mayor's ballot, that also doesn't make sense.

[David Dayen]

Los Angeles is a big, I mean, in terms of, when you're thinking about it, it's not just the city itself, but actually parts of the San Fernando Valley which are more conservative.

[Krystal Ball]

30% of LA voted for Trump. Like I feel like that's totally lost in some of this discussion. Like, oh my gosh, 30% support trap. I'm like, yeah, there's Republicans in Los angeles. It's not 100% particularly.

[David Dayen]

I mean, when you talk about the San Fernando Valley, it's like bas. Suburban. So that area, you do have pockets of Republican support.

[Krystal Ball]

That makes sense.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So if two Dems make the LA runoff, that's like. And also two Dems in the gubernatorial.

[David Dayen]

That's even more so for, particularly for the, for the billionaire tax in particular tax, that that would be a major factor and it could very well happen. I mean, you know, I think there's a perspective when you think about national politics that, that this race, I've seen it compared to the New York City mayor's Race. Like you have an Indian American democratic socialist going up against an ossified kind of leader who hasn't been very effective. That's not how it's playing out.

[Krystal Ball]

If there was any zoron of the race, it would be Spencer, however.

[David Dayen]

Yeah, I mean, in terms of his

[Krystal Ball]

ability, I agree with that national profile.

[David Dayen]

In terms of his ability to. To get attention and things like Rahman has run. You know, she wasn't well known, particularly to the very democratic communities on the west side. She's from Hollywood area and she's run a fairly dispirited race. Like, I haven't seen a big groundswell support. I've seen more of that groundswell in specific city council races where DSA is going up against incumbents rather than with the mayor's rates itself.

[Krystal Ball]

We have some of her last pitch. Let's take a listen.

[Tom Steyer Campaign Ad]

This city is a beacon of hope and opportunity for so many around the world. But today, Angelenos are losing hope. High housing costs, job loss, tens of thousands of people living on the streets, the terror of ice and a complete lack of preparation for emergencies. We have a mayor who has failed to lead this city. And on the other hand, a right wing extremist powered by MAGA is channeling people's frustrations about this city into fear and anger and hatred. They're relying on your indifference. We can bring LA back to what it really is. One of the most creative, most beautiful, most hopeful places in the world, but only if we come together and fight for it. Every single vote matters on June 2, because this city's future is absolutely worth fighting for. And I know, I know we can build that future together.

[Krystal Ball]

Why would they zoom out on that crowd? It's like the smallest crowd.

[David Dayen]

50 people.

[Krystal Ball]

It's like Campaign 101, man. All right. I mean, I. In terms of what I'm looking at right now, odds, etc, it does look like it might be Pratt. Or is it Pratt at Bass? But you seem to think that there's a decent enough shot of her.

[David Dayen]

I think there's a decent shot that she advances. It's a difficult race. I mean, I think Los Angeles is going through problems that are beyond the political system.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Like Hollywood collapsing.

[David Dayen]

Yeah, this is an industry town where the industry is gone. It's basically a Rust Belt community if you think about it in that sense.

[Krystal Ball]

But like in an ongoing sense.

[David Dayen]

Yeah, I mean, I know so many people. I came from doing TV production. I know so many people have just left or gotten into another job.

[Krystal Ball]

Then why does your real estate market

[David Dayen]

keep Going up, that's a different issue. I mean, there's still a sort of storehouse of wealth, but there isn't the sort of middle class wealth that came not just from Hollywood, but also from aerospace, which those factories have closed too. I mean, that's more historical and goes back 40, 50, 60 years. But more recently, runaway production and sort of the end of peak TV has made it really difficult for Los Angeles to maintain. Homeless population is actually down in bass four year term. But the Palisades fire has become this huge avatar for her and the inability to rebuild after that has been really debilitating.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, it's fair for her.

[David Dayen]

I think it's.

[Krystal Ball]

It's definitely a fair last thing here. Closing message from Karen Bash as she was doing an interview. Let's take a listen.

[Interjector (possibly a caller or guest)]

Well, I think for the undecided voters to understand that they have a choice to make, and that choice is a reality TV villain. Really, how did that work for us on a national level? That's one choice. The other choice is a city council person who's been in City hall twice as long as I have. To me, that's one of the most important issues in our city is people feeling safe. You can't feel safe that there's an encampment there. It's not safe for the people in the encampment and it's not safe for the people around. How do you do business?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean, a little Prattian rhetoric there. I don't really. I mean, I don't know what's going on with this whole thing, but I don't. Look, I don't get it, David.

[David Dayen]

I think there's a.

[Krystal Ball]

It looks like she's gonna win.

[David Dayen]

I think there's a through line with Bass and Becerra, actually. And it's a certain style of political leadership that you see in California that they don't get really tested in very many races. They're kind of anointed. They're moved through the system. And, you know, not having. Being effective is not a hindrance to moving up through the institution.

[Krystal Ball]

It's a classic machine problem.

[David Dayen]

That's a real problem, I think, in California politics. And why I think you're seeing most Democrats, I think, just sort of underwhelmed by the choices in front of them and really despairing of what they have to deal with Now. I would say that Steyer is actually speaking to some of the real issues in the state. He's talking about Prop 13 and how that has created this historical underfunding problem, particularly for Local communities. So he's talking about changing the commercial property valuations. He's talking about health care becoming too expensive and needing to move to a single payer system. He's talking about some of the things that historically I think would help Democrats actually move into a better place. But yeah, I think there's a larger problem in California where, you know, it's not knowing anything is not a development that is going to be a problem for you in politics. And that's, I think the larger thing that we're gonna see play out today.

[Saagar Enjeti]

People talk about breaking up California just to get some extra senators. Break it up. Cause it's kind of a failed experiment. Start over. Break it up.

[Krystal Ball]

I like it. I like it, Ryan. I like this idea.

[David Dayen]

I mean it's sad because you have the master plan of education, you have real advances in the environmental sector and renewable energy. You have the fact of non compete agreements creating a burgeoning amount of innovation from Silicon Valley. They're the elements here for really an incredible continuing series of innovation and change and a sort of way in which California can lead the way. It's just its political system is kind of inert.

[Krystal Ball]

Sad. Very sad. Even though it is the most, in my opinion, the most beautiful state.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Quite beautiful.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, thank you so much, David, for joining us. We appreciate your time, man. Really, really great to do a deep dive into all this. We have a big audience in California so they'll be happy that we finally spent a lot of time on it. Thanks man. Appreciate your time.

[David Dayen]

Thanks.

[Krystal Ball]

Thank you very much, Ryan. Appreciate you, man.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Dave.

[Krystal Ball]

And you, Dave. Who's still here. We were pretending that he's not, but it's okay.

[David Dayen]

I've just been here all the time.

[Krystal Ball]

It's TV magic. There'll be Ryan and Emily on tomor so they'll see you then. Lots of places can expose you to identity theft. That's why LifeLock monitors hundreds of millions of data points a second for threats to your identity, which is way more than anyone can do on their own. If we find anything suspicious like new loans or changes to your financial accounts, we alert you right away all through text, phone, email or the LifeLock app. Save up to 30% your first year. Visit lifelock.com iheart Terms apply hi, this

[Gronk from Dudes on Dudes]

is Gronk from Dudes on Dudes. I'm here to tell you about protecting your enzymes zone with wet extra large flushable dude wipes. Unlike dry wiping with toilet paper, dude wipes clear instead of smear. Wetter cleans better. Goodbye dingleberries. Goodbye itch and irritation. Plus if you take Gronk sized Grumpies or as I like to call them, Gronkies Baby wipes won't do. You need extra big Dude Wipes to handle the job, so don't fumble the ball with toilet paper paper. Stop being an A hole to your B hole and start using Dude Wipes. Available on Amazon and major retailers nationwide. Dude Wipes Best clean Pants down.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway for you. Save days are here now through June 23rd. Find hot deals throughout the store and earn four times a point. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Tostitos, Cascade Tide, Red Bull, Sparkling Ice and Ferrero. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy pickup or delivery, restrictions apply. See the website for full terms and conditions.

[David Dayen]

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.