6/23/25: Trump Threatens Iran Regime Change, Iran Floats Hormuz Shutdown, Scott Horton Debunks Nuke Lies

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar: Episode Summary

Title: Trump Threatens Iran Regime Change, Iran Floats Hormuz Shutdown, Scott Horton Debunks Nuke Lies
Hosts: Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti
Guest: Scott Horton, Director of the Libertarian Institute
Release Date: June 23, 2025

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1. Introduction and Episode Overview

[02:03] Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti open the episode by highlighting the significant geopolitical tensions surrounding recent actions by former President Donald Trump regarding Iran. They introduce the central themes of the episode: Trump's threats of regime change in Iran, Iran's potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, and an in-depth analysis by guest Scott Horton on the veracity of claims surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions.

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2. Trump's Regime Change Threats and Administration's Contradictory Statements

Krystal Ball delves into Trump's shifting stance on Iran's nuclear program and regime change. Initially, Trump claimed that the U.S. had destroyed all Iranian nuclear sites. However, contradictory statements from administration officials emerged, denying any intent for regime change. This inconsistency was epitomized when Trump tweeted about the possibility of regime change, undermining the officials' reassurances.

• Quote:
  "It's not politically correct to use the term regime change, but if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change?"
  — Donald Trump [06:20]

[06:38] Saagar Enjeti emphasizes the rapid change in the administration's messaging, pointing out the lack of coherence between government officials and Trump's public statements.

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3. Media Propaganda and Public Perception

Krystal and Saagar critique the role of mainstream media, particularly Fox News and CNN, in propagating narratives that support military intervention against Iran. They argue that media outlets have been instrumental in shaping public opinion to favor aggressive actions, often at the expense of nuanced understanding.

Krystal Ball notes,
"They're selling fear and justifying bombings as necessary for national and Israeli security, even when the actual impact on Iran's nuclear capabilities is minimal."
— Krystal Ball [05:02]

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4. Interview with Scott Horton: Debunking Iran's Nuclear Threat

[46:19] Scott Horton joins the discussion to provide expert analysis on Iran's nuclear program. He challenges the administration's claims that the U.S. has successfully neutralized Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons.

Key Points Discussed:

• Uranium Enrichment: Horton explains that Iran's enrichment of uranium to 60% does not equate to an imminent nuclear weapon but rather serves as a strategic bargaining chip.

  Quote:
  "The war party has a kernel of truth when they say, and you know how they do it, they always make it a rhetorical question, well, what do they need with all that 60% enriched uranium?"
  — Scott Horton [48:12]

• JCPOA and Diplomatic Failures: He highlights the shortcomings of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and how Trump's withdrawal from the deal in 2018 has escalated tensions without effectively curbing Iran's nuclear aspirations.

• Historical Context: Horton draws parallels with past interventions in Iraq and Libya, emphasizing the long-term instability that often follows military actions aimed at regime change.

  Horton states,
  "It's always just hoax after hoax with these people and their wars."
  — Scott Horton [56:14]

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5. Iran's Potential Retaliation and Strategic Threats

The hosts discuss Iran's warning to American citizens to "shelter in place" amid escalating tensions, as reported by the State Department.

• Quote from Iranian Foreign Minister:
  "United States showed that they have no respect to United Nations Charter, they have no respect to international law... There is no red line that they have not crossed."
  — Iranian Foreign Minister [40:17]

[32:48] Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti analyze Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global oil shipments. They express skepticism about the likelihood and practical impact of such an action but acknowledge its potential to disrupt global oil markets significantly.

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6. Analyzing Policymakers' Statements vs. Ground Realities

The conversation critiques officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance for their attempts to downplay the situation despite Trump's contradictory assertions.

• Marco Rubio's Claim:
  "We feel very confident that the Fordo nuclear site was substantially set back and that was our goal."
  — Marco Rubio [46:58]

• Saagar Enjeti and Krystal Ball's Analysis:
  They argue that despite Rubio's statements, satellite imagery and intelligence reports indicate that Iran's nuclear sites are not entirely destroyed, and significant portions of Iran's uranium stockpile remain unaccounted for.

---

7. The Future of U.S.-Iran Relations and Global Implications

Krystal and Saagar discuss the long-term implications of the current U.S. strategy towards Iran, including the erosion of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the potential for increased nuclear proliferation.

Krystal Ball remarks,
"This has fundamentally undermined our commitment to the NPT and set a dangerous precedent for how the U.S. handles nuclear diplomacy."
— Krystal Ball [55:XX]

Scott Horton adds that Iran's leadership faces internal pressures and that any regime change could lead to even more unpredictable and unstable governance structures.

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8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The episode concludes with Krystal and Saagar emphasizing the need for independent media to provide clear, unbiased analysis of complex geopolitical issues. They caution against accepting official narratives without critical examination and advocate for informed public discourse to navigate the intricacies of international relations.

Krystal Ball closes with,
"We're trusting experts like Scott Horton to help us cut through the propaganda and understand the real stakes involved."
— Krystal Ball [66:23]

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Donald Trump [06:20]:
  "It's not politically correct to use the term regime change, but if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change?"

• Marco Rubio [09:11]:
  "Our view has been very clear that we don't want a regime change. We do not want to protract this or build this out any more than it's already been built out."

• Scott Horton [48:12]:
  "Any economist could explain why it might make sense for Iran to burn their domestic supply of uranium and sell their oil on the world market if they can."

• Scott Horton [56:14]:
  "It's always just hoax after hoax with these people and their wars."

• Iranian Foreign Minister [40:17]:
  "There is no red line that they have not crossed. And the last one and the most dangerous one was happened only last night when they crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities."

---

Key Insights and Conclusions

• Contradictory Messaging: The U.S. administration's mixed messages regarding Iran's nuclear program and regime change create confusion and undermine policy credibility.

• Media's Role: Mainstream media outlets play a significant role in shaping public perception, often skewing narratives to support military interventions without sufficient evidence.

• Nuclear Capability Misconceptions: Iran's nuclear enrichment levels do not directly translate to imminent nuclear weapon development, contrary to some policymakers' claims.

• Historical Parallels: Past U.S. interventions aimed at regime change have led to prolonged instability, suggesting similar outcomes may occur in Iran.

• Renewed NPT Risks: Actions against Iran's nuclear facilities threaten the integrity of global non-proliferation efforts, potentially encouraging other nations to pursue nuclear capabilities.

• Need for Independent Analysis: The episode underscores the importance of independent media and expert analysis to provide balanced perspectives on international crises.

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This episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar offers a critical examination of recent U.S. actions towards Iran, highlighting inconsistencies in official narratives and the potential long-term ramifications for global security and non-proliferation efforts. Through expert insights and thorough analysis, the hosts encourage listeners to question prevailing narratives and seek informed, unbiased information.

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

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[Scott Horton]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Dsw.Com hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.

[Krystal Ball]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Sagar Enjeti]

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

[Krystal Ball]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Krystal?

[Krystal Ball]

We have two absolute giants booked to join us in this show. So I am extremely excited to speak with Scott Horton about the reality of the Iranian nuclear ambitions. He can do some debunking for us there. So very excited to speak with him. And we are also going to be talking to Professor John Mearsheimer about the geostrategic implications of all of this and how we got to this place in the first place. So really super psyched to talk to them. Before we get into that, we're going to break down all of the latest news with regard to our war and Israel's war with Iran. Trump has now gone from saying, you know, we destroyed all the nuclear sites to now the indications are we aren't. And all the administration officials went out on the Sunday shows and said there's no regime change here. And then Trump goes ahead and tweets on maybe we are going to do a regime change. So there is a whole lot to get into, a lot of moving parts. Also, as we watch what Iran's potential retaliation could be, we're also going to spend some time taking a hard look at all of the intense media propaganda, wild, wild stuff going on, especially on Fox News and cnn. So that is where we are going to focus. We're also going to take a look at the oftentimes utterly pathetic Democratic reaction and what is going on with the quote, unquote opposition party. And then later today for premium subscribers, soccer and I will be doing that AMA Live. So if you want to be able to participate in those, make sure you sign up at Breaking. Thank you so much to everyone who has been supporting the show. One cool thing that we are going to get to do this week, Sagar, is Griffin and Ryan are going to New York.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's right.

[Krystal Ball]

We're going to be doing a live stream Tuesday night. That New York City Democratic primary mayoral race with the top two being Andrew Cuomo versus a Zoran Mamdani is going down this Tuesday. So we are going to be covering that live. And new poll actually just came out this morning that has this from Emerson that has Zoran leading after you Go through all the ranked choice rounds and whatever, 5248. And now the Poly market betting odds, which were wildly in Cuomo's favor yesterday, have now completely flipped in favor of Zoran. So it's going to be a nail biter. Very interesting to see how this race goes down as sort of a canary in the coal mine of where the Democratic base is now.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's right. But thank you to our premium subscribers. That's where we're able to forward. We have them both on the ground. They're going to be there in New York City. Hopefully be able to get some interviews with Zoran Mamdani as well as possibly Mahmoud Khalil. You know, maybe working on that or.

[Krystal Ball]

Working on these more accurately. Ryan is working.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Ryan is.

[Krystal Ball]

Because Ryan knows someone who knows someone always.

[Sagar Enjeti]

He's the goat. What can we say? He is the greatest to ever do it. Thank you, seriously, to everybody who has been signing up BreakingPoints.com if you're able to join us. We have a massive influx of new listeners and of new viewers, which we deeply appreciate. Guys, if you can't afford a membership right now, it's totally fine. Just do us a favor, hit the subscribe button on YouTube or if you're listening to this on a podcast, just go ahead and take your favorite episode. I heard a lot of people really enjoyed our episode immediately after the strikes that happened on Iran. Just text it to a friend if somebody's asking, hey, what is actually going on here? And hopefully we can help people sort throughout all of this. So with that good transition to what the hell is going on right now.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, well, I have a feeling with Scott Horton and Mearsheimer in the show today might be one of those favorite shows. It's one I'm certainly really excited to hear from both of those individuals. So let's go ahead and put a one up on the screen here, guys. You just can't make this shit up. This is Donald Trump on Truth Social yesterday. It's not politically correct to use the term regime change, but if the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change? Question, question, question. And then he says myga make Iran great again instead of maga. You get that?

[Sagar Enjeti]

You sure Iran is what stands in.

[Krystal Ball]

That's my, that's my greatest, my best guess here. So, Sagar, before I even play all of the administration stoo were sent out to say there's no regime change here before Trump completely undercuts them. I mean, how quickly have they moved the goalposts?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. It's just extraordinary. Like, first, oh, we're doing diplomacy. No, we don't want war. We just want diplomacy. Then this is great that Israel's striking and we were not involved at all. And then the next day, after Trump sees the Fox News coverage and how glowing it is, of course it was all us. We were totally involved. But then we actually. What we really want is diplomatic negotiation. So, you know, it's great Israel's doing their thing with us, but we really want diplomacy. And then, you know, very quickly, that diplomacy, obviously, because some of the lead negotiators were murdered, falls apart, and then it's off to the races. So now we've gone from, oh, we're just gonna drop a bomb on Fordeau to, well, actually, you can't destroy the nuclear program just with bombing. So looky, looky. I guess we're gonna have to do regime change. And your two hosts here called it all along. I would have loved to be wrong, but that's where we are.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I wanted to be wrong. I really did. You know, I wanted to see something that really challenged all of my priors about US Intervention in the Middle East. But cynicism is ultimately the only thing that can be rewarded here. We started with Israel has got it. All America has to do is give them the bombs. And then we're like, no, no, no, no. We just gotta do one strike on these three facilities, and then it's over. And now, as we're gonna get into for the rest of the show, actually turns out, yes, the strikes were qu. Possibly knocking out some of those facilities, but, oh, the nuclear material itself is not there. It's gonna go through a lot with Scott. Which means what? Oh, maybe we're gonna have to go back and continue this. As of this morning, the IDF has removed all pretenses of this being about the nuclear program. They are bombing regime targets, including political prisons or whatever from the Iranians, or apparently Iran had some doomsday clock about when Israel was gonna be destroyed, and they bombed that. Just in case you're all aware of what this is all really about, but with really is a massive indictment of a lot of these MAGA influencers. Because the MAGA line for the last week has been, trust President Trump. He's got this. He's not gonna do regime change. He tweeted it out. He just tweeted it out. Not only did he just tweet it out, he actually humiliated all three of his major national security officials who went on Television all day to assure the American public and the Iranians listen, we are not trying to do regime change here. And look, if you want the evidence, I'm talking hours beforehand. Vice President J.D. vance, National Security Advisor, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, SecDef Pete Hegseth, they all said it over and over again. This is not about regime change. Even though Trump literally said it is about regime change. Let's take a listen.

[Marco Rubio]

Our view has been very clear that we don't want a regime change. We do not want to protract this or build this out any more than it's already been built out. We want to end their nuclear program and then we want to talk to the Iranians about a long term settlement here.

[JD Vance]

So this mission was a very precise mission. It had three objectives, three nuclear sites. It was not attack on Iran, it was not an attack on the Iranian people. This wasn't a regime change move. This was designed to degrade and or destroy three nuclear sites related to their nuclear weaponization ambitions.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So is regime change off the table? Mr. Secretary, and to the Chairman, you know you said the battle damage assessment is still ongoing.

[Scott Horton]

But do you believe that some nuclear capability in Iran remains?

[Marco Rubio]

This mission was not and has not been about regime change.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's not about regime change, not doing regime change. Don't worry about it. It's not regime. And the reason why is because they're like, maybe we can come to some agreement with the Iranians. So the Iranians now have. Look, whether it's true or not, at this point, the narrative is diplomacy was a ruse and then it was, listen, we have nothing to do with this. This was only Israel. Now actually we did Bo. But this is just about the nuclear sites. It's not about anything else to now Trump is saying. So why would you want to negotiate with Trump? Like at this point, let's put yourself in the strategic empathy, okay? You don't have to like Iran, you don't have to like the regime. Put yourself in their shoes. What would you do? What would you do? And we'll continue with these statements from US Policymakers. It's just preposterous. And also, I mean, I know we're gonna get to this, but I wanna preview this. The Trump speech is one of the most. It will live in history as one of the most extraordinary speeches in the U. S. Israel relationship of all time. I mean, he literally tied the United States of America and Israel together. He thanked Prime Minister Netanyahu before he thanked the US Air Force service members who dropped the bombs On Iran, he said, God bless Israel before God bless America. This is the game is up in terms of what this is all about. I mean, this is Israel's war. This is America's war. Donald Trump, our president, has chosen to fuse those two things together. And he is betting his entire presidency on this. You know, will it work out for him? I mean, he's got better political instincts than me, but at the very least, like, for a lot of other people out there, if you deluded yourself, you know, into thinking that there was some independence or whatever, maybe that was true at one point. I do not believe it to be true at all anymore. Donald Trump has made his choice. The die is absolutely cast.

[Krystal Ball]

You know, Sagar, I was thinking about this and I have empathy, especially for people who were looking at the genocide in Gaza and were like, I can't vote for a ticket that was part of this. And so they wanted to believe that maybe Trump would be different. And one of the analyses that was offered is Biden is a dyed in the wool Zionist. Like, he's actually ideologically committed to the project, whereas Trump is purely transactional. But you know what, that should have been a red flag for us because no one's going to play the transactional game better than the Israel lobby.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And that's, you know, that's a very insightful thing. And that's actually really. I will, one day we'll do like a full retrospective on how we got here. And there's a big, big reason why this is all happening. And it's a big part of that.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, because just highlighted, if you actually have some sort of principle, even if your principle is like, I love Israel and I want what's best for Israel, this is not, in the long run, going to be best for Israel. I mean, people around the world hate this country now. Right? You cannot bomb your way to safety and security. So there is, even if you have any sort of ideological principle you're willing to stick to, there is some sort of limits that you may eventually put, as we've seen with other American presidents, by the way, who have, at the end of the day, said, you know what, it's too far, it's too much, we're done here. But with Trump, because he's just for sale to the highest bidder, then you don't have any sort of a limiting principle and that's how you end up, you know, this is John McCain's fondest wish. Like, people are sharing this meme of him.

[Sagar Enjeti]

His former advisors are saying that I'm not joking. His son in law, Ben Dominic literally is like, this is his. I mean, look, I take it from his family. All right, like let's listen to it.

[Krystal Ball]

Absolutely true. Lindsey Graham's the John McCain's the John Boltons, they are getting the bill crystals. They are getting their fondest wish right now through this president who dared both in 2016 and 2024, who dared to posture as being anti war and is now already like put us into a regime change war in the Middle East. The exact thing that he would have had us believe he would never do. Even as he spoke out of both sides of his mouth. Like he'd say that and then he'd also say we should bomb the Iranian nuclear facilities. So, you know, people heard what they wanted to hear ultimately. And the record spoke for itself from the first term where he was extremely hawkish and also risked direct hot war with Iran after assassinating Qasem Soleimani. But we're gonna spend some more time tomorrow probably on all of the MAGA influencer cope because you could spend a long time talking about the way that these people have shifted and the mental gymnastics that are going on here. But let me just give you one example because it fits with what Sagra was saying about the evolution here of their talking points and the evolution here of what the administration has been trying to sell us. So Charlie Kirk originally starts off with like, we shouldn't be in war with Iran. And then once it's clear that we are, then it's well, we shouldn't directly bomb Iran. And then once it' swhen we, once we do that, then it's well, we shouldn't do regime change and have boots on the ground. Now once Trump comes out and says, hey, why not regime change? Let's make Iran great again. Now we get this from Charlie Kirk parsing of the different varieties of regime change. A bottom up revolution rises from the will of the people. A top down regime change is engineered by elites and the intel community. One is organic, the other is orchestrated and forced. The line is very thin and we must proceed extremely carefully. Before you know it, we could be in a situation like Libya. President Trump is talking about an organic uprising. Oh, is he? As he's bombing Iran, he's talking about this is all just organic. America cannot get involved in a forceful decapitation effort in Persia. So the number of times he has already shifted the goalposts here to now. We're parsing the nuances of which type of regime change he thinks Trump ultimately means is just absolutely Incredible. To see.

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Me too.

[Krystal Ball]

It's not hard to convince them. Sadly, it's not hard to convince the American people to bomb someplace that they've never been to. Okay? That's just the sad fact of the matter, based on my entire life experience. So if you say Iran has a nuke, we had to go in there and stop it. We dropped the bombs, it's done, it's over. God bless America. We preserved our American interests. You know what, I'm sorry to say there's a large amount of Americans that at least the jump would be like, you know what, I get it, okay? We had to take. There was a dangerous situation. They were gonna bomb Missouri or New York was gonna be next or whatever the hell. They've been sold on Fox News primarily, and CNN as well. That's really not what he said. And he also threatened more bellicosity and really made it clear this wasn't really about our interest, it was about Israel's interest. I mean, he really didn't even try to hide that in this speech. The other piece optically is he's got Rubio, Hegseth, and JD Vance behind him, which was a way of sort of projecting that he's brought the. JD Vance is supposedly the highest level non interventionist in the administration. Hegseth was also supposedly had learned his lesson, blah, blah, blah. Rubio has always been a neocon, but we had also been sold some, like, maybe he's changed his ways here too. So by having them there behind him while he's announcing this, it's basically a way of sort of like publicly humiliating and demonstrating that they've all been brought to heel. In any case, let's go ahead and take a listen to a sampling of what he had to say in that speech.

[Donald Trump]

A short time ago, the US Military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime. Fordeau, Natanz and Esfahan. Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle east, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier. I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before. And we've gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel. I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they've done. With all of that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight's was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed, and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes.

[Krystal Ball]

So he threatens additional action. And he says something there, Sagar. He says Iran's key nuclear facilities were completely and totally obliterated. That is not the case. The administration is no longer even claiming that that is the case. Can put this next satellite images up here on the screen. This is Isfahan. You can see certainly damage which has occurred here. But the big question, too was Fordeaux, which is the nuclear facility buried under the mountain that there was a lot of discussion of prior to this bombing. Let's put the next one up on the screen. And you can see the before and the after here. You know, it's actually a little bit difficult to tell exactly where the bombs dropped and what happened. But all of the indications that we're getting from the Israelis and from the Americans at this point is, yes, there was significant damage, but these nuclear facilities are not completely and totally obliterated, as he said. Not to mention, now we're getting these pieces of like, oh, and there. But did you know there's other really even more important nuclear facilities. And oh, by the way. And here's Natanz. You can see the before and after there. And oh, by the way, they. Because there was so much projection of like, we're gonna do this, or maybe we're gonna do this or maybe we're not gonna do this. The Iranians moved their stockpile of enriched uranium to some secret site that, you know, I don't think we have awareness of. Maybe we have awareness of where it is. But the, you know, ostensible goal here of making it impossible for them, at least in the medium term, to race towards a bomb has been a failure. Now, reminder, our intelligence community and the IAEA say they were not trying to develop a nuclear weapon. That that wasn't something that they had in mind, that if they did decide to, it would take years for them to develop not only that weapon, but the capability to deliver it. But, you know, now we've changed the calculus where, because of the aggressive actions of the Israelis and of now ourselves as well. There is a lot of logic and I'm sure. Talk to Mearsheimer about this later. There's a lot of logic in place for Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon. So that's where we are.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The Trump administration is defining terms in complete stupidity because they're like, the sites have been obliterated. And it's like, okay, well, it's not really about the sights. Right. It's about the ability to weaponize a nuclear bomb. Right. And that means it's about the uranium stockpile. Let's go and put the next part up there on the screen. And there's also some further stuff that gets into it. It says the Iranian Fordo site looks to be severely damaged, but not destroyed. But furthermore, and this is the most important thing, basically, US Officials now concede they do not know the fate of the Iranian uranium stockpile and that the current assessment is that almost all of it, and especially according to the Iranians, was moved out of these place. In fact, there is a arms control expert who I religiously followed, I have for 10 years on the North Korea nuclear program and more. And his current analysis is that not only does Iran not have access to this uranium stockpile, but there are several other facilities which are more recently built, of which the IAEA has not ever been inspected. They don't even know where they are. Secret facilities and more, where they fully have the capacity to take this 60% uranium and enrich it to 90% if they wish to do so. As you just said, and we'll talk to Mearsheimer about, there has never been more strategic logic to have that happen. And in fact, there's already satellite imagery showing trucks and other Iranian facilities that were going there before the strikes maybe two or three days beforehand and moving it out of there. Now, you may ask, why the world's most moral and credible military, Israel, while they're bombing doomsday clocks, it doesn't have the capacity, apparently, to bomb those trucks or to say, hey, why are these big trucks capable of using nuclear material there? Yeah, you may want to question that, including with the United States. This is the problem is that now the stage is set for what? More strikes. We're like, oh, well, we didn't get it here. So actually, we gotta go back and we gotta go get this, quote, nuclear material. And look, it's gonna be the same logic. Israel doesn't have the bunker busters. They don't have the capacity. They actually hit Fordeau again this morning. Similarly, trying to take out other things on the side. And again, begs the question. It's like, well, if we destroyed it, then why did they have to go back and hit it again, look to the actions, not to the words. And because the actions tell us the entire story and the story is clear. Also, I would show why the Iran that made the quote Miga tweet is so damaging. What did JD say in there? He said, we're not at war with Iran. Bullshit. Whatever. All right, let's move past that. We're not at war with Iran. We're not at war with Iran. We're at war with their nuclear program. Then we want to come to an agreement. Now, that agreement would be about this uranium stockpile, but we don't even know where that is. I'm telling you, this is leaked. US Intelligence officials, other officials, iaea, they're saying, we have no clue. We don't know where it all went. Well, how do you get that? This is basically like the same Iraq playbook. The whole reason why boots on the ground and all that had to happen not just for a regime change. It was sold to the American public as we have to go and secure it ourselves or Israel's gonna go and secure it. The great geniuses in the idf, you know, say, yeah, I'm sure that, you know, some 19 year old reservists who have now spent two years just like happy shooting around in Gaza are very proficient at being able. No, of course it'd be only the US military and we haven't even gotten into Iranian retaliation. But I actually realized we hadn't even played that JD thing. So just so you guys can take a listen and to show how damaging the make Iran great again regime change declaration was from Donald Trump, it directly undermines his, like, alleged policy and actually makes it clear what the real policy is. Take a listen.

[Krystal Ball]

Is the United States now at war with Iran?

[Marco Rubio]

No, Kristen, we're not at war with Iran. We're at war with Iran's nuclear program. And let me just say, Kristen, that we're incredibly grateful and proud of the American Air Force pilots who did an incredible job last night. The operation was really extraordinary. I certainly empathize with Americans who are exhausted after 25 years of foreign entanglements in the Middle East. I understand the concern, but the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents and now we have a president who actually knows how to accomplish America's national security objectives. So this is not going to be some long drawn out thing we've got in. We've done the job of setting their nuclear program back. We're gonna now work to permanently dismantle that nuclear program over the coming years. And that is what the President has set out to do.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You can see clear. He said that's what the president and also, you know, oh, we had dumb presidents or whatever in the past. I mean, if that's the level of argumentation that we've been reduced to, it again comes back to trust Trump. You should not trust Trump. By the way. And this is the other thing. The neo guns didn't trust Trump. When Steve Wyckoff and it looked like negotiations and all that would happen, what were they doing? They were like, he's a Qatari traitor. All this. Mark levin was on TV, he's like, Mr. President, you gotta abandon this policy. They didn't trust him. They were a thorn in his side and they won. That's why. Because it was an overwhelming pressure campaign. Now look again, Trump's intentions. We'll never truly know what all of this is, but at a certain point it really doesn't matter again because of the actions. So where things stand as of some, what, 36 hours post strike are very clear is the Fordow facility and others, they appear to be, quote, severely damaged. We do not yet know where the stockpile is. We do have current indications that the Israelis continue their regime change operations. We have Donald Trump himself who has declared regime change is a possibility that he'd be very okay with if not wanting to affect. And we have all of the pieces in place to continue more airstrikes on Iran if not a call for some sort of U.S. intervention. And all of this is before the Iranians have even responded to the United States, which of course is an open possibility, a dangerous one, and looks all the more likely right now.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's exactly right.

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[Krystal Ball]

So let's move to the indications there. We just got word this morning from Qatar. Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen guys. This is from the States Department. They say out of an abundance of caution, we recommend American citizens shelter in place until further notice. So some dire indications there coming out of the State Department. Let's go and put this next piece up on the screen there. This is a seven guys coming out of the Times of Israel. So they're claiming Netanyahu has some interesting intel on the whereabouts of Iran's 60% enriched uranium. What do you make of this piece, Sagar? You buy this?

[Sagar Enjeti]

No, of course I don't buy it because look, I mean they can claim whatever they would like. It's clear that their military didn't actually be up to the job and they knew it from the very beginning. They knew from day one they would never actually be able to destroy the nuclear program. And that's Part of the reason why, again, look at the actions, guys. This is all out in the open. They're openly striking regime targets and oil and gas facilities.

[Krystal Ball]

And, by the way, have been from day one.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes, exactly.

[Krystal Ball]

That's why all the strikes in Tehran, those are not nuclear facilities. So this has been. And it's so important to emphasize the point Sagar is making, because they want to sell you. This is about Iran's nuclear program, and that's the way they'll keep dragging. Oh, we actually didn't completely obliterate Fordo. Oh, there's this new site. They moved enriched uranium. Now we got to do more. Now we got to do more. Now we got to do more. And you just keep inching forward. I mean, Trump at this point is just, like, completely said, all right, well, we need regime change, I guess. And that's the truth of the matter, is, even if you keep it at. We have to make sure that they can't get a nuclear weapon. You can't ensure that. There's literally no way to actually guarantee that. The best path they were on was the diplomatic one back with the JCPOA and the negotiations that were going on, the beginning of this Trump administration, where it's like, okay, we're going to give you sanctions relief and you're going to agree not to pursue a weapon, and we're going to have an inspection regime that can give us some sort of comfort that that's not happening. But what the hawks are going to say is, well, you really can't guarantee it until we have some sort of puppet regime in there that we can just control. So that's the way that this logic ultimately works.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Let's put a 8, please, up on the screen. This is arguably the most important indication that's yet come out of Iran, well contextualized for you. The Iranian parliament has reportedly backed closing the Straits of Hormuz, obviously, which could spike the price of oil, where, what is it, some 30, 40% of the world's oil moves through? Very, very important for the Chinese economy. Now, again, just to explain here what the Iranian Parliament did, and there are several different parts of the government, it's not exactly a parliamentary democracy. Okay? There are many different bodies. They all report up to the Ayatollah. Effectively, what they said is they have approved the closing of the Straits of Hormuz if the Ayatollah and the National Security Council of Iran decide to do so. So they're not saying that they're gonna do it. It's effectively like a declaration of War from Congress saying, hey, if you wanna declare war, you can. And then it's up to the discretionary authority of the executive. So in a way, they actually follow the process more than our own president, whenever he launched a war. Kind of ironic, honestly. But what it does tell you is that it is the nightmare scenario. It's one that US Officials have said would be suicidal. It almost certainly would. It would lead to the massive, basically massive involvement of the United States Navy. It would obviously shock the world's oil prices. It would be a devastating blow to the Chinese economy. It would just be absolute mass chaos. It's something that they have the ability to do to mine if they want to, and to close along with the Houthis as well, to try and put more pressure on us and other shipping assets that are all throughout the region. But the point really stands is that they have a lot of optionality right now. They're looking all across the world. By the way, another reason why that Qatar thing is so significant is it's not about US Citizens in Qatar. It's about the fact we have a massive air base in Qatar. Now, reportedly a lot of the US Assets were taken out of that at the beginning, but this was always a big nightmare. Is that that air base very strategic? It was a key staging point for US Troops for logistics wise, during the war in Iraq. There's thousands of American service members that are not just there, but also in the region. Bahrain, you have the fifth Fleet and you have now two carrier strike groups that are there as well put that together. I mean, with Iraq and with Syria, there are so many different vectors through which they could attack the United States assets, American citizens, if they wanted to. That is the danger. Now, are they gonna decide to do that? You know, the Americans have basically said that's gonna be suicidal. Again, I ask for strategic empathy. If somebody said that diplomacy with you was a ruse, and if somebody said we strike your facilities, but it's not, that's it, no more. And then the President, the chief decider comes out and says, actually it's about regime change. What would you do? And also, we're not dealing with the most rational actors here because The Ayatollah is 86 years old. I've been reading a lot about the Ayatollah. And this is a guy who basically staked his entire security doctrine on nuclear ambitions as a deterrent that has collapsed literally around him. The country is more precarious today than at any point since 1979. And in his vision, at any point since the 50s, during the restoration of the Shah. So he doesn't have anything to live for anymore except for his own legacy. It's not that hard, even at a rational level, take religion and all this other stuff out of it, to say, we're gonna fight to the death. He's the decider. He's the person who makes these decisions. And there are all kinds of people inside the Iranian regime who want to fight at this point, feel humiliated. There has been a massive rally around the flag in Tehran and all across the country. And in fact, if there is a regime change, you know, he said and already designated his successor. But let's say the mullahs are thrown out of power, the most likely, from what I can tell and have read, it would not be democratic. It would be some secular, nationalist, IRGC type figure who would sprint towards a bomb to say, we will never let this happen to our country again. This is a bad scenario. And of course they have access to chemical, biological weapons. They've got the ballistic missiles program. We don't. Israel claims to have destroyed half of it. We'll see. Doesn't look like that from Tel Aviv, I can tell you that right now. But that's, you know, this, this is why the triumphalists are like, it's just about the strike. They're like, why are you guys bedwetting so much? I mean, how have you not Learned about the 40th order consequences at this point? And it's not about the one. Look, the US strikes on Libya were successful, right? It took seven months for that country to go to shit. Gaddafi was killed in October. We started seven months before that. And actually the country didn't really collapse until 2014. The Iraqi Civil war didn't start really, you know, hot until 2005, 2006, Afghanistan. The Taliban didn't rise for two to three years. Everybody had their mission accomplished moment, and it happens every time. The west wins the opening because it's about sheer military strength. And then the strategic and the political question, which we never think about from the beginning, collapses. And then what happens? We have to get more involved.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean, Iranians are fighting an existential battle for their country. Like that is a difficult. Like we couldn't even defeat the Houthis.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Like, let's be real, from the air. We can do it on the ground if we want to.

[Krystal Ball]

You don't want that. Yeah, exactly, I don't want that. Yeah. So in any case, let's put this, this is unbelievable, this next piece. Put this up on the screen from cnbc. So the US is apparently calling on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormones and disrupting global oil flows. So we're like, you know, have created this likely consequence or potential consequence and now we're begging the Chinese to rescue us from the potential implications of our own actions. You know, this is something I want to talk more to Mearsheimer about because Chinese get a much larger percentage of their oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz than ours. However, there are some other possible ways to ship oil other than through the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. So I'm just like, I'm just very skeptical at this point. You know, we heard all these economic projections about how the sanctions on Russia would just be utterly devastating to their economy and they couldn't possibly survive. And, and that turned out not to be the case. So at this point I'm just all of the like economic fallout predictions of how this will be completely devastating to Chinese, the Chinese economy. I just want to learn more and I want to see more before I take people at their word that that would actually be the case. We also had the Foreign minister of Iran making comments saying that the US has blown through every red line imaginable, which I think is pretty reasonable thing frankly to say at this point. Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of what he had to say. In the wake of these strike, the.

[Iranian Foreign Minister]

United States showed that they have no respect to United Nations Charter, they have no respect to international law, they have no respect to any international law regarding, you know, managing the board and facing challenges of the world. There is no red line that they have not crossed. And the last one and the most dangerous one was happened only last night when they crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities. I don't know how much room is left for diplomacy. We are now calculating the damages.

[Krystal Ball]

And.

[Iranian Foreign Minister]

As I said, the damages are not only for our nuclear facilities, the damages are for the United Nations Charter. It was not only Iran's facilities which was bombed, but it was also the United Nations Charter. It was also non proliferation regime and NPT which was bombed last the Americans. And it was the rule of law and international law which was bombed.

[Krystal Ball]

That part about how we figuratively bombed the non Proliferation Treaty is actually really accurate because many countries, not just Iran, many countries are going to look at our actions be like, well, they're not messing with North Korea, but I see what happened to Libya, I see what happened to Iran. So what kind of logic does that create around the World, there's just no doubt about that at this point. Put a 13 up on the screen just in terms of, you know, potential retaliation that we're watching. This was an Iranian state TV broadcaster who was showing on the map all the location of US bases throughout the region of which there are many in what saga some 50,000 US troops stationed throughout the region, all of them at risk, all of them in danger. Now they don't have an iron dome or a David's sling or an arrow system to protect them on those bases in the nearby region. And lastly, put a 14 up on the screen. We're going to talk more about this, all this sleeper cell talk in the media block. But the U.S. department of State issued an urgent warning to all American citizens to exercise caution due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. And they really are pushing this idea, hear domestically Sagar, that there's these Iranian sleeper cells that may leap into action at any moment. And I would just be highly skeptical, highly skeptical of those claims because I mean this is the way that they want to bring the war home and create some sort of a justification so people feel like, oh, maybe we don't want war, but we gotta act. There's these sleeper cells here and I'm terrified that we're gonna be next. So that's kind of where we are. As we're waiting to see Ball is in Iran's court of what they're gonna do next.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, if you're old enough, you can remember the terror levels already. We're at security threat level red. So yeah, I feel like I'm 12 years old all over.

[Krystal Ball]

I feel so old watching this all unfold again. I feel so old.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, that's right. All right, let's get to Scott Horton. He's standing by.

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[Sagar Enjeti]

We're very excited now to be joined by Scott Horton. He is the director of the Libertarian Institute, author of Provoked, a fantastic book and a great friend of the show. Scott, thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it man.

[Scott Horton]

Thank you both very much for having me.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Absolutely. I mean such an expert here is particularly what we wanted to talk about with you, Scott, is uranium enrichment. The claims of the United States where things stand now, in particular where things may go, you know, with these US Strikes on Iran. Let's start here with JD Vance asked specifically about the Iranian stockpile of uranium, effectively admitting that the stockpile itself was not hit and what that means for the future. We're going to play it, we're going to get your reaction. Let's take a listen.

[Marco Rubio]

We feel very confident that the Fordo nuclear site was substantially set back and that was our goal. The UN's atomic energy watchdog said that Iran had 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium. Do we know what has become of that? Was it destroyed in this attack? Do we know? That's a work in the coming weeks? Yeah, John, we're going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel. And that's one of the things that we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about. But what we know, John, is they no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched uranium to weapons grade uranium. And that was really the goal here. Uranium is not that difficult to come by, John, but enriching uranium up to the point of a nuclear weapon, that is what the President put a stop to last night.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Scott, can you just react to that? Because now the claim is, is that the stockpile itself was not destroyed, possibly for further pretext of of US involvement, but maybe even take the audience back a bit further as to what all of this enriched uranium stuff even means and why it really was a pretext and not a real reason for the US to strike them right now.

[Scott Horton]

Yeah, well, that's absolutely right. So to start with the latest, they are more likely to break out toward a nuclear weapon now, which is what those of us on the anti war side have been saying for 20 years here. What Iran has is a latent nuclear deterrent. They mastered the fuel cycle back in 2005. That is they proved that they knew how to enrich uranium to whatever percent. Now they need 3.6% for their electricity program and they need a little bit of 20% for their medical isotope reactors. But otherwise the war party has a kernel of truth when they say, and you know how they do it, they always make it a rhetorical question, well, what do they need with all that 60% enriched uranium? Well, there's a real answer to that other than they're on their way to making nuclear weapons. Of course they could have enriched up to 90 plus percent all along. They enriched up to 60% of the bargaining chip to negotiate away in order to try to get the sanctions lifted and try to get the United States back in the deal. It's the same thing they did in the Obama years. And of course it was in response to Israeli assassinations of their nuclear scientists and attacks on their personnel in Syria and things that caused them to go ahead and after Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018 and go ahead and start enriching up to 20 again and then eventually up to 60%. Now you'll hear every hawk on every show say, oh my God, 60% uranium. And then what they're betting on is that the audience doesn't know anything about it. And what you're telling them is nuclear scary, be afraid and we stop the thing. Trump was asked, but Tulsi Gabbard says they weren't breaking out toward a nuclear weapon. And he said, well, I don't care what she said. They were getting close to one or something. He said, kooky. Tucker Carlson needs to understand that Iran can't have a bomb. So what's implied there heavily, of course, is that Iran was making a bomb and that we stopped them from making a bomb. But that's just not true at all. And you know, I'm not trying to be, you know, convince anyone that to be naive. As I said, it already was a latent nuclear weapons deterrent in a sense. But what it also is is their civilian energy program. And you know, any economist could explain why it might make sense for Iran to burn their domestic supply of uranium and sell their oil on the world market if they can. And so this is, you know, the main part of it. On the other hand, it also is just like Brazil and Germany and Japan where they've proven they've mastered the fuel cycle and they could make atomic bombs if pushed to it. So it's sort of like saying, I have a revolver in one pocket and some bullets in the other lets you and me not get into a fistfight and then that way this thing won't escalate. That's essentially been their stance our whole 21st century. Long here to go back to W. Bush, he put them in the axis of evil. Just think about what a cynical lie this is that the Ayatollah Saddam Hussein, Osama Bin Laden and Kim Jong Il are all in on it together working against you. Right, as absolute total hoax. Well, Saddam said, my books are wide open. Here's my 12,000 page dossier. I'm not doing anything. And they just buffaloed right in there based on a bunch of lies and got it done anyway. The neoconservatives got it done in North Korea. Bush and Bolton bullied them out of the Non Proliferation Treaty. They went ahead and made nuclear weapons. Nobody's messed with them since. But what the Supreme Leader did was the Supreme Leader in Iran, the Ayatollah said, here's what we're going to do. We're going to open our books wide open. We're going to stay in the NPT we have a safeguards agreement with the IAEA and they can verify the non diversion of any nuclear material from our civilian program to any military purpose, which is exactly what they've done. And the only reason Obama even needed to do the deal in 2015 was because essentially the world, led by Israel or the west, led by Israel, were essentially just pretending the NPT didn't exist, pretending that Iran didn't already have a safeguards agreement with the IAEA and the Israelis were threatening an aggressive war then and Obama felt it was necessary. And I'm not taking Obama's side. For people who don't know me, I hate the Democrats more than anyone hates the Democrats. I'm just telling you this is the true history of the world here is Obama made a deal where they would severely restrict their program. They would expand the inspections regime and in exchange we would lift sanctions and give them some of their own money back. That pallet of cash was money that Jimmy Carter had stolen from them during the revolution in 1979. John Kerry's just given some of that back. In exchange, they poured concrete into their Iraq, that's Arak, Iraq heavy water reactor. They severely restricted the number of centrifuges spinning at Natanz by I think 2/3. They converted the Fordo facility to research only rather than uranium enriched uranium production. And they expanded the inspections regime where America and our allies on the UN Security Council we have the majority. It's America, Britain and France versus Russia and China. And unlike a normal Security Council resolution, Russia and China couldn't veto it. It was majority rules under this deal. If we want to inspect even non nuclear sites, we can, as long as we have some plausible reason to do so and submit the request in a reasonable amount of time and so forth. There's no way that they can have a secret nuclear weapons program and then smuggle it out the back door before inspectors arrive or whatever, this kind of thing. So, so the deal of 2015 was engineered so that Iran, if they withdrew from the NPT and if they kicked the inspectors out of the country and beat their chest and said now we're making nukes, it would take them a year to make one. And by the way, as long as you're letting me ramble on here, let me explain real quick too, that you cannot miniaturize a uranium bomb. Yes, uranium bombs are virtually always a gun type nuke like Fat man that they dropped on Hiroshima, which is essentially a giant shotgun inside that bomb firing a highly enriched weapons grade enriched uranium slug into a Target of the same that causes the supercritical reaction. They didn't even test that bomb. It's 1940s technology, simple stuff. They didn't test that. The Trinity test was of the Nagasaki bomb, which was a plutonium implosion bomb. That's the kind of bomb that can be miniaturized and married to a missile. However, the Iranians have no plutonium route to the bomb because even though they still do have one heavy water reactor at Bushehr and it produces plutonium waste, they do not have the facility required to reprocess that waste, get the impurities out to make it possible to use for weapons fuel. And under the jcpoa, which they're still in this part of it with the Russians, is that every two or three years or so they shut down the reactor and the Russians will come and get all the plutonium waste and take it away. So their plutonium route to the bomb did not exist at all. And their uranium route to the bomb was delayed for at least one year. And then as I say, at the end of that year they would have had enough to make one bomb with, but then no way to deliver it other than slap it on the back of a flatbed truck or something like that. So still would essentially be, you know, the most base, the most minimum of nuclear deterrent. And it's, you know, and I'll wrap up with this is that it's clear from all of the reporting here nothing changed. The only one in opposition to that is Israeli intelligence claims that something changed, but American intelligence has not verified that at all. The only thing that changed was Trump made up a 60 day deadline and then the Iranians went past it and he was on this absolute red line deal killer, that they can have no enrichment in the country at all whatsoever. Back to what J.D. vance was saying there, essentially equating them having the capability to enrich with progress toward a nuclear weapon and claiming that that was what we stopped. But it's just, it's no more sincere than Bill Clinton in Kosovo or George Bush in Iraq or Afghanistan or Barack Obama in Libya or Syria or any of the rest of the, or Yemen, any of these things. It's always just hoax after hoax with these people and their wars.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, let's talk a little bit more about that because they've got a little bit of a propaganda issue given the fact that Tulsi Gabbard was at the end of March came out saying very clearly the American intelligence community does not believe that Iran is pursuing a weapon. And so now, we're supposed to believe just some months later that this has suddenly completely changed, and so much so that we need to get involved in what Trump is now admitting may be a regime change operation. Of course, we've all seen from the beginning that the nukes were pretext and this was, in fact, a regime change operation. Let me get your reaction to Secretary of State Marco Rubio being pressed on this. You know, this question of, okay, well, are they pursuing nuclear bombs? Since that is your pretext, let's go ahead and take a listen to how he responds on a phrase you just. Weaponization ambitions. Are you saying there that the United States did not see intelligence that the Supreme Leader had ordered weaponization?

[JD Vance]

That's irrelevant. I see that question being asked in the media. That's an irrelevant question.

[Krystal Ball]

But that is the key point in U.S. intelligence assessments. You know.

[JD Vance]

No, it's not.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, it was.

[JD Vance]

That the political decision had no, I know that better than you know that, and I know that that's not the case.

[Krystal Ball]

But I'm asking whether the order was.

[JD Vance]

Given and the people who say that it doesn't matter if the order was given, they have everything they need to build nuclear weapons. Why would you bury. Why would you bury things in a mountain 300ft under the ground? Why would you bury 60? Why do they have 60% enriched uranium? You don't need 60% enriched uranium. The only countries in the world that have uranium at 60% are countries that have nuclear weapons because they can quickly make it 90. They have all the elements they have. Why are they, why do they have a space program? Is Iran going to go to the moon? No. They're trying to build an icbs.

[Krystal Ball]

No, but that's a question. That's a question of intent. And you know in the intelligence assessment that it was that Iran wanted to be a threshold state.

[JD Vance]

How do you know?

[Krystal Ball]

I'm talking about the March assessment, and that's why I was asking you if you know something more from.

[JD Vance]

That's also an inaccurate representation of it. That's an accurate representation of it. That's not how intelligence is read. That's not how intelligence is used. Here's what the whole world knows. Forget about intelligence, what the IAEA knows. They are enriching uranium well beyond anything you need for a, for a, for a civil nuclear program.

[Krystal Ball]

Scott, your reaction to that propaganda effort.

[Scott Horton]

I mean, anyone ought to be able to just see right through that. The only countries that have 60% uranium are countries that have nuclear bombs. Really? Is he saying you can make a bomb out of 60% uranium. Is he saying that any nuclear weapons state in the world has their arsenal made out of uranium bombs rather than plutonium implosion bombs? And he's simply bluffing. And, and Marco Ruby, I'm glad he hired Marco, little Marco for the job actually, because you could see right through the guy. He's just as transparent as could be. He's got Miriam Adelson's hand right up his rear end, moving his lips for him. He's not really a human man. Right. He's like a corporate mascot like Tony the Tiger or, you know, Ronald McDonald or something. He's sitting there. His job is to lie to you so that you'll be confused and let him commit horrific sins on behalf of a foreign power.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I mean, but then one of the things that really, Scott, there is about what you said about the capability is confusing capability with intention. And that intention, again, according to US Intelligence, did not exist. I can back you up as well. You know, I reported over the weekend, I spoke with senior US intelligence officials, people with the highest level who saw it, and they said, no, there has been no change whatsoever in the Ayatollah or the Iranian higher command's decision making on whether to build a nuclear bomb or not. And so I really wanna just end on that note with you. Here is specifically about how the logic of nuclearization has never made more sense than today. Because what has happened is that Israel, with impunity, is allowed to just come in and bomb the shit out of your entire regime, basically target your oil and gas facilities. The United States has the ability to come in and to blow out up all your nuclear enrichment. It has never made more sense for them to have a nuclear deterrent than right now. Instead of trying to pursue some sort of deal when the president himself also says, actually regime change, that's totally cool and fine with me. Why would they want to do anything else?

[Scott Horton]

I mean, and look, this very well could be the absolute death of the Non Proliferation Treaty. The nuclear weapons states have never lived up to their promise to disarm that they signed in there, of course, although America and Russia did come way down from tens of thousands of nukes each, but still. And then here you have a nuclear weapons state, Israel, that's not a member of the Non Proliferation Treaty, acting in concert with the United States, the world empire. That's a total violation of it. Attacking a non nuclear weapons state signatory to the NPT over their civilian program. That again, you hear Vanco Rubio bending over backwards trying to figure out how to. To get you to conflate it with something scary. That, again, was nothing but a latent program at the time. We had the perfect basis for a standoff. I'm not saying I endorse this, I'm a total non interventionist here. But they were saying if you attack us, or they were heavily implying if you attack us, we might just make a nuke. And our side was saying, don't make a nuke or we'll attack you. Okay, well, great. They could have just left it at that for Trump to have, you know, bowed down essentially to pressure. There were, you might remember, some wiggle words a couple a few weeks ago about, well, maybe we could allow some enrichment on some limited basis under some sort of compromise, maybe even do a consortium with the Saudis and enrich together some kind of thing. They were trying to be flexible for a minute there, and then the lobby came down hard and said, no enrichment at all. Which, of course, the Ayatollah was never going to give into. So they were just setting us up for this war. But I'll encourage your audience to pay very close attention to people like Marco Rubio and for that matter, the rest of the pundits and whatever out echoing the war party talking points. And you will notice this distinct lack of clarity when it comes down to exactly what was going on here. There's a lot of implication that's essentially relying on people's ignorance that if they say nuclear this. Exactly. You know, it was the focus groups that learned this in 1990. People didn't really want to go liberate, to wait and reinstall His Highness the King Al Jaber to the throne there. Until they did. They got people at the mall and they set them down in focus groups. And as soon as they said nuclear, people said, okay, I guess we gotta go. And then they use that same lesson for Rock War ii. And of course, they're doing the same thing here because they know that most people didn't study hard sciences in college and stuff we don't know about uranium, this and that. And so they can try to just make it sound scary and say, listen, we can't wait. Remember this was the line, Condoleezza Rice, George Bush and Colin Powell, all three said, we can't wait for the proof to come in the form of a mushroom cloud, so you and your mama better just stay scared and let us do what we want.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. No, that is all so absolutely correct. And I mean, in a way, I appreciate Trump said it out at Truth Social saying like, Maybe it is regime change. So we can all drop the pretense here. Because I've never seen polling that is so wildly apart, depending on how you frame the question. Because you're absolutely right. If you say to people like, Iran's pursuing a nuclear weapon, should we go in surgical strike their nuclear facilities to prevent them? Guess what? You get a lot of people who say, yeah, sure, because that also feels costless and limited and like there's this big scary threat and we can just take it out easily.

[Scott Horton]

I've done too.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. If you asked people, I know one of the questions asked, asked, should we get involved in the war between Iran and Israel? And people were like, hell no, why would we do that? And I've yet to even see the question asked, should we get involved in a regime change war with Iran? Which is of course what we are in at this point. But I have no doubt the polling on that would be absolutely abysmal. Which is why, to your point, Scott, it matters so much how you frame these questions and how you clarify for the American people what is actually happening here and what the President has actually put us into, which is a regime change war, it is already underway. It is happening right now.

[Scott Horton]

Agree. And look, even regardless, we don't know the secret councils of these people. But just on the most basic level, this is what Harry Brown said is government doesn't work, they fail upwards. The worse things are, the better it is for them. And so everything by their logic is always escalation. Look, all we're going to do is we're going to take out a few nuclear sites. What you're saying now they're going to break out toward a nuclear weapon? Oh, boy. I guess we need to get the Americans in there because only they can get the Fordo site. Now I got America in there and then. No, they're saying, I saw a report today the Iranians are claiming they have a new secret base that they built under a bigger, deeper tunnel under a bigger.

[Krystal Ball]

The screen while you're talking. Yeah, we have that report like, oh, there's another one. It's either it is, I guess we're.

[Scott Horton]

Going to have to send in the 82nd Airborne to go in there and destroy it by hand. Then this time, are we going to have to use nuclear weapons? Probably not, but they're talking about that might be what it would take. Or you know what, I guess we're just going to have to go ahead and kill the Supreme Leader. I saw Benjamin Netanyahu said that would solve everything if we Just killed the Ayatollah Kameny. And can't you picture George W. Bush? I mean, Donald Trump. Same difference. Buying into that one and going along with that. And then what? Now you gotta kill every last Shiite cleric in the country to prevent one from claiming to be the supreme leader? Are you gonna prop up the Aziris or the Baluki Bin Ladenites in order to keep the Shiites out? Or who's gonna take charge? They're talking parachuting in the Shahs son. Oh my God. How in the world.

[Krystal Ball]

His Royal Highness, according to Fox News.

[Scott Horton]

Is that what they're even calling him?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes, they called him His Royal Highness. You know what's also funny?

[Scott Horton]

Oh, that's so funny. It's not even the correct title.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's His Imperial Highness. Just for those of us who care. The Shah of Shah. I'm just saying, if we want to be correct, let's be correct.

[Scott Horton]

We should all start calling him My Lord.

[Krystal Ball]

My Darth Vader at Liege. Yes.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Can't get over it.

[Krystal Ball]

Scott, I said to you I'm sorry that your expertise still continues to be so incredibly relevant. But we appreciate you taking the time to talk to us and help explain these things. No one does it better than you do.

[Scott Horton]

Thank you so much, both of you. Great to be with you.

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[Scott Horton]

Hear ye, hear ye.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Make way for the Baron of Brioche.

[Marco Rubio]

The Sultan of Salado, the Lord of the Loaves.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Primemba.

[Tulsi Gabbard]

Dave yes, yeah.

[Scott Horton]

Hi.

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[Future Health]

This is an iHeart podcast.