← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
6/24/26: Iran Denies Trump Nuclear Claims, Tulsi Resigns, UAE Sudan Horrors
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- [00:00]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Krystal Ball
Guaranteed Human. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I
- [00:09]
Saagar Enjeti
don't trust much of anything.
- [00:12]
Krystal Ball
It's the rage bait. It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [00:19]
Saagar Enjeti
We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.
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Ryan Reynolds
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Krystal Ball
See full terms@mintmobile.com hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so, so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
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Saagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com at the same
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Krystal Ball
time, we want to keep our eye on what is unfolding with regard to negotiations between Iran and the US for a potential end to that war. And joining us now to break down his view of all of those things and also whether Congress could thwart any potential peace deal, is our great friend of the show, Dr. Trita Parsi. Of the Quincy Institute. Great to see you, sir.
- [02:34]
Dr. Trita Parsi
Thank you for having me again.
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Krystal Ball
Yeah, of course. So we haven't spoken since the weekend negotiations. So I'm just curious your view of how things went and what you see as being the biggest stumbling blocks here.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
Look, I have to tell you, I think this was quite successful. I know there's a lot of noise, and a lot of that noise is aimed at grabbing headlines, and they do. If the Banyans say that they're going to close the Strait, or if Trump issues a tweet and says that he's going to bomb again, if there isn't a breakthrough, that will take all the oxygen out of the room. But that pushes you away from seeing the actual achievements. And some of the key things, of course, are that they set up the conflicting mechanisms both in Lebanon and for the Strait of Hormuz. In Lebanon, the Iranians are included, which was never the case before. Before you had a mechanism in which essentially, if there was a dispute between Israel and Hezbollah, only the United States would determine who was right. And you can imagine how that went. So it wasn't much of a mechanism at all. Now you have the Iranians and the American side both involved in it. So that's going to be a completely different balance. The IAEA is going to be involved, although there's a kerfuffle about that. But nevertheless, that is part of article or eight memorandum. They negotiated for 19 hours. And perhaps most importantly, we've seen a significant pushback by the United States against Israel in Lebanon and beyond. Channel 13 reported yesterday that the administration has told them that the restriction that their freedom of maneuver and their unrestricted maneuverability that they've enjoyed for quite some time now, is now changing, and they're going to be restricted not just in Lebanon, but on several different fronts. That was the message from the administration to the Israelis. And then publicly, of course, we have seen how JD Vance essentially has been trying to de specialize the US Israeli relationship by saying they're a great partner and friend, just like France is, that is a huge demotion of the relationship between the US And Israel. Of course, it hasn't happened, but I think he's signaling the direction of travel. If the Israelis continue to try to sabotage things, which they have, and they most likely will continue to do. But that is, I think, the real outcome of this. It's not the noise, it's not the tweets, et cetera. And I think we should be ready for the fact that this is going to be an extremely bumpy ride. It's probably going to be more than 60 days. Almost certainly when there is a deadline in USC bond relations, it's almost meant to make sure that it's never met. There was not a single deadline that was meant in the jcpo. I suspect this will be the same. I just hope that it doesn't go as exaggeratedly long as the JCPOA did. But it's going to be extremely bumpy and we're going to constantly be thrown distractions and it's going to take our eye away from the actual things happening. Let me just add one other thing that I think is really fascinating. They set up these working groups, several different working groups, to better organize how the memorandum is going to translate into a final deal. There are regional countries from Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi, Oman, uae, I believe, as well, involved in each and every one of these different working groups. They may not all be involved in all of them, but they're all involved in some of them. So you have a regional anchoring of this and involvement. It's not a deal that is being sold to them. It's a deal that is being mediated and negotiated by regional states that makes it fundamentally different from the JCPOA in a way that can make it much more durable. But that in and of itself is also a massive success. So far, nothing is finished yet, nothing is done. But I would just caution the viewers to not be taken away by all of the headlines about the latest tweet or now the Iranians are backing off of what they're saying in the iea. All of that is just part of the negotiations.
- [06:27]
Krystal Ball
Let's talk a little bit more about some of the issues that you raise here. In particular, put B1 up on the screen. This IAEA issue. Trump is. He's wanting to sell his victory narrative, which he needs to do if he's going to be able to proceed with this deal. And so obviously, the whole idea of the memo of understanding was, okay, we're going to have a framework for how we're going to go about deciding some of these more difficult issues, in particular around the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear file. So you've got them offering sort of conflicting account of where they are in terms of the nuclear discussions. What do you make of this? And how hardline do you think that the Iranians will be on the nuclear issue, given that the whole idea of nuclear weapons is to establish deterrence and establish some sort of leverage that you could use in exactly this type of negotiations? Well, now they have a Very powerful, perhaps even more powerful, tool of deterrence with their demonstrated capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
So look, on the nuclear issue, I think you're likely going to see in some aspects, more concessions from the Iranians compared to the jcpoa. Certainly that was the case on the deal on the table back in February that Trump foolishly rejected. And I think they're doing that because the memorandum spells out all sanctions are on the table. Doesn't mean that Trump will lift all sanctions. But he's signaling that all sanctions are under discussion and can be lifted depending on what the Iranians offer in return. I think the biggest mistake the Iranians can commit right now is that they will end up thinking too small or that they will go for too small of a deal out of fear of the ultra hardliners in Iran, fearing that they otherwise will throw a fit and create too big of a problem internally in Iran. But I think this is an opportunity to actually go really big and make sure that their relationship is fundamentally transformed and without transforming the entire region. This is clearly what the administration is looking for. And I think it's important to understand Trump's motivation throughout all of these different things has been to achieve big, historic things that are worthy of legacy. He thought that he could do that by overthrowing the government of Iran, doing regime change there, defeating them militarily. None of that works. So now he is trying to see if he can achieve the same historical outcome, the same legacy worthy outcome, if he strikes a transformative deal with the Iranians. And I think there's elements on the Iranian side that are very much open to this, but they're more split on that issue than on the broader issue of just making a deal that I think they can get through. But a larger deal could be trickier. But I think it would be a big mistake by the Iranians if they don't aim for that. At a minimum, not only because it would be better, but it would also be much more durable if it is a deeper deal with more sanctions relief, American companies returning to Iran. You can very easily, in that scenario, frankly, see a complete reversal of the regional situation. Situation in which you have Iran's decontainment after decades of being isolated and Israel's recontainment after decades since 1991, when Israel came out of its isolation because of the Oslo Accords, but now, because having committed a genocide and done everything to prevent peace, it may actually end up going back into the. Into isolation, not necessarily as badly as it was before 1991, but clearly very different from what it has been in the last two or three decades, all because of its own conduct. This. These are fundamental changes that can happen in the region, but it all depends on whether they succeed with this deal and the size and depth of this deal.
- [10:16]
Krystal Ball
So let's take a look at how Trump is selling this to his base. He spoke and touched on it a little bit at a rally yesterday. Let's take a listen.
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Saagar Enjeti
And other people, other countries, too.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
We're not the only one that never did anything. They were the bully of the Middle east. And now we're leaving Iran with no navy, no air force, no anti aircraft,
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Saagar Enjeti
no missile capability, no nuclear program.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
We're leaving them without any nuclear capacity,
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Saagar Enjeti
and they've agreed to that.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
And we're getting along quite well. Obama gave them 1.7 billion in green cash. Remember, 747. They flew over piles of cash, $1.7
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Saagar Enjeti
billion, gave them hundreds of billions of
- [11:00]
Dr. Trita Parsi
dollars and thought they could bribe them into peace.
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Ryan Reynolds
No.
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Dr. Trita Parsi
The only thing they understand is what these guys in the front row understand is the hammer.
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Krystal Ball
So Trump is not bound by truth or reality. He also has a very unique hold on his base and saying these things very diplomatically. But in a way, the fact that he does have this very personalized approach to the presidency and this cult like following with his base could be very helpful in selling the deal. That, you know, any objective analysis, you look at the deal and you're like, oh, we lost this war, but that's not gonna sell very well with, you know, with the American people. And because he's unbounded by truth and reality and has this, you know, particular relationship, it seems like he may actually be able to pull off convincing at least his people that he is getting something out of this, and we emerge the victors and the tough guys, et cetera.
- [11:53]
Dr. Trita Parsi
Yeah, you're absolutely right. This is the line he's gonna be driving for now. I think once there is a deal, I think you're gonna see him add to it other talking points, such as saying that he's the peacemaker, he ended 47 years of enmity. No other president has managed to do so. He already hinted at a little bit when he said that we're getting along very fine, apparently, so he's laying the groundwork for that. But also, if there is a deal and there is a lifting of sanctions, primary sanctions, he's going to say that we're now also going to trade with this country and we're going to bring benefits to the manufacturing industry in the United States because this is actually a huge market of 90 plus million people. The largest market has opened up since the fall of the Soviet Union. So there's other talking points that I'm sure he will use later on, but for now this is the line that he's likely going to be sticking with. And what I find interesting is that the Iranian side has were earlier on saying things of this kind as well, at least in English. Twitter, they have kind of tempered it down and are trying to avoid the gloating that they did earlier on. You may remember that when the talk of the MOU first was starting to get serious and then there was some hint that there would be a deal, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson tweeted a picture of the Persian emperor Shahpur the first defeating the Roman emperor Valerian. And after that the Romans had to sue for peace on Persia's terms and kind of compared MOU to that. He took that down later on and since then they have stopped speaking in that manner, which I think is pretty wise because it's not going to help them or the Trump administration if there is that type of a narrative being pushed. Because that narrative right now is primarily pushed by the Israelis who want to sabotage this deal.
- [13:47]
Nissan Rogue Advertiser
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- [14:29]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [15:31]
Krystal Ball
Jeremy Scahill who had some reporting on the internal dynamics in Iran and very noteworthy when you know, they put out the Supreme Leader, put out his analysis, he said, I'm not really too sure myself, but I trust, golly bob, I trust Arachi, we're going to pursue this piece. So sort of passing the buck to them, hey, if this doesn't go well, this was their idea. How significant is the faction in Iran that is not really in favor of these negotiations and thinks that this is giving up leverage, thinks that the US hasn't frankly suffered enough pain to serve as an effective deterrent from future military action?
- [16:10]
Dr. Trita Parsi
It is significant, but it is not necessarily one that can stop this. It's not that the other factions are afraid of them. It is about how do you manage them throughout this process to make sure that they don't create problems. In the Supreme National Security Council, the vote was 12 in favor, one against. Of the 13 votes, only one, and that was Saeed Jalili, who voted against us, who is one of these ultra hardliners. So they have a position within the system. They are intimidating, they are strong in some ways, but they are also in a small minority at this point and increasing seemingly isolated. That the new Supreme Leader issued this statement in which he essentially distanced himself a bit from it and signaled that he was not necessarily in favor, but he was convinced by the others and he trusts them, is exactly what the previous Supreme Leader did. The difference, of course, is this Supreme Leader has been in his position for about two or three months. He's not had a chance to actually establish himself and he has in this short term, two and three months been faced with the biggest and most consequential, consequential decision of The Islamic Republic's 47 years in power, since he get found, since he got founded. So it's a very, very tough decision for him and he has chosen to pursue the path of his father, which is to approve it, but saying that he disagrees with it or that he's skeptical about it in order to provide himself with some protection at the same time that he did this, the Iranians wanted Trump to sign the MoU, and that's why Pizzesh Kian was the CO signer, which is an unprecedented thing. This is not what happened with the jcpoa, because they wanted Trump to really commit himself to the deal while the Supreme Leader himself kept a certain distance from it.
- [18:06]
Krystal Ball
On our side, we got Trump saying, if it doesn't go well, I'll just blame jds. They're playing our own game here as well. We talked ad nauseam on this show about the obstacle that Israel poses and their continued commitment to their invasion and attacks inside of Lebanon. So I think everybody pretty well understands that dynamic. But I really wanted to get you to lay out the obstacle that Congress could pose. You know, many of the same people who said, oh, Congress doesn't need to sign off on a war, are now the first in line to say, oh, but Congress does have to sign off on the peace. And it is true that some of the sanctions did come through Congress and would probably require Congress to roll them back, although Trump operates in his own way and doesn't always, you know, abide by the. The law or the rules. So what do you see as the biggest obstacles? And how do you understand the political dynamics between Republicans and Democrats and who would be in favor of the sanctions relief and who would be opposed? Because to me, it's a little bit murky at this point.
- [19:04]
Dr. Trita Parsi
Look, first let me start off by saying that I was deeply disappointed in seeing that some of the Democrats, many of them actually having been very constructive on this issue before, took positions that, in my view, were not terribly different from the bad faith positions and accusations that the Republicans did against the jcpoa back in 2015. And, you know, such as the criticism, the $300 billion reconstruction fund, et cetera, making it sound as if it was American money going there. Completely disregarding the fact that, A, this is after the Iranians have suffered 300 billion-plus dollars of damages in this war and they are in dire need of reconstruction. B, that this is driven by regional states who have now come to understand that containment of Iran does not work. It eventually leads to war, and as a result, they now want to approach security in a different manner, and they want to try economic integration and interdependence similar to what Europe did after World War II with the guidance of the United States, with the steel and coal union, etc. Trying to create so much economic independence so that going to war would just become too costly for all sides. And this is because they experienced this war, so they want to do it. They're the ones who are driving this. Completely disregarded. It would be their money that would be used for investments, not American money, necessarily. And also forgetting that they themselves, on many occasions, rightfully have stood by the Iranian people and criticized the repression of the Iranian government, but now are saying, let's not reconstruct this country that has been ravaged by $300 billion of war damages inflicted by Donald, and at the same time wanting to pretend that they're still standing with Iranian people who are in dire need of this reconstruction. So I'm very disappointed that. But also I'm stunned by the strategic lack of wisdom here, because if their criticisms amount to enough to actually scuttle the MOU and collapse this pathway out of this war, then the next war that will likely occur because this negotiation fails is a war that the Democrats will also own. It won't just be Trump's war, because they helped blow up the exit ramp from this war. So it's just stunning to me that not only have they taken this very reactionary position, mirroring what the Republicans did in 2015, but on top of that, not thought this through a couple of more steps, that this could actually end up really bad for them politically if they're standing in the way of getting a deal. I fully understand that they want to criticize aspects of it, and they certainly don't want to give Trump credit, et cetera. I think that's totally fine. But the degree and the depth of the intensity that I saw, some of these attacks, I think go beyond what is warranted. And if you want to criticize it, there's great ways of criticizing it from the left instead of criticizing it from the right, which unfortunately, too many of the centrist Democrats tend to do. Now, what could Congress do? First of all, almost all of the secondary sanctions go through Congress, so they would have to lift them if they're part of the deal, which to a certain extent, I think is very likely. The primary sanctions are primarily through executive orders, and Trump can lift those on his own without their involvement. A lot of the secondary sanctions become somewhat moved if there isn't a foundation of primary sanctions underneath them. So the necessity of lifting the secondary sanctions may not be that strong. It's a little bit of a.
- [22:34]
Krystal Ball
Can you explain that difference? Can you explain that difference between primary and secondary sanctions?
- [22:39]
Dr. Trita Parsi
Yeah. So the primary sanctions are. Are sanctions that the United States is imposing on American companies wanting to trade or invest in Iran. It includes also a lot of designations such as designating certain banks for sanctions because of whatever violations they're accused of, secondary sanctions. And what we're telling a Spanish company, even though we don't rule you, we have decided that you are not allowed to trade or invest in Iran because if you do, you lose access to the American market. And those sanctions primarily go through Congress. And they are, of course, very important because they prevent the rest of the world from going into the Iranian market. But if the US Itself goes into the Iranian market, you can understand the contradiction of the US Being in the Iranian market while preventing other companies from other countries to going in. That's one aspect of it. But the other aspect of it is also, is that a lot of the sanctions that are coming through, the secondary sanctions are targeting companies or banks that have been designated in primary sanctions. So if you take away the primary sanctions designations, the secondary sanctions essentially become hollow. This is the case in some of them, obviously, not in all. But then there's the other aspect, which is Inara, which is that after the jcpoa, Congress decided that the President had to come to Congress and make sure that he got it approved. But it was a reversal approval. It would have to be a vote of no confidence. That would have to have 60 votes, and all the President needed to have back in 2015 was 40 votes to make sure that that vote of no confidence wouldn't go through, essentially. But that is in case if it is a nuclear deal, a new variation of the nuclear deal. If you notice, the Trump administration has never referred to this as a nuclear deal. They're talking about a US Iran deal, a transformational deal. I suspect that that is because there's. They're at least hoping that perhaps they can avoid Inara altogether by saying it doesn't meet the definition because this is not a nuclear deal. But even if it does, and they have to go to Congress, the biggest concern I have is not that they wouldn't be able to pass it or that they wouldn't be able to defeat a resolution of no confidence, but rather that this will just add more time to the clock and would create more problems and delays more than anything else. Because I, and I really do hope that they try to wrap this up as quickly as possible. Let me tell you one reason why.
- [25:13]
Krystal Ball
Sure.
- [25:13]
Dr. Trita Parsi
The JCPOA essentially ended up taking roughly a year longer than it should have, because the two sides were just over negotiating by the time it was struck. And by the time the implementation started, there was such fatigue in the White House with Iran. They had focused so much on Iran at the expense of other issues. But he also left the Obama administration with very little time to do proper implementation of the deal and then it made it easier for the next administration to uproot it. So if they manage to get this done fast and give enough time of implementation and anchoring of this deal, it will make it more difficult for any future administration if they were to choose to go against this to be able to uproot. And having had that experience, I think they should be very careful not to repeat that mistake.
- [26:01]
Krystal Ball
Well, Dr. True to Parsi, as always, value value your analysis so much. Thank you so much for taking the time this morning.
- [26:06]
Dr. Trita Parsi
Thank you so much for having me.
- [26:08]
John Swain
I appreciate it bro.
- [26:10]
Nissan Rogue Advertiser
From the show last night to this drive, why is it never chill? Because this is our life backstage on the road. It's loud, messy, real. And that's the best part. Whole crew, no plan, just moving. Good thing Nissan builds for that kind of chaos. Not just test tracks, real life scenes, late night road trips. All of it. That's why it holds up. Nissan was ranked number one in initial quality among mainstream brands by J.D. power. Yeah, you can tell 2026 Nissan Rogue built for what really happens for J.D. power 2025 U.S. initial Quality Study Award information visit JDPower.com awards awards based on 2025 model year. Newer models may be shown Ryan Reynolds
- [26:52]
Ryan Reynolds
here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for 15amonth plan that I've been enjoying doing. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do@mintmobile.com
- [27:09]
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- [27:53]
Krystal Ball
A new extraordinary report in the Washington Post details just how much Tulsi Gabbard especially in the early days of her political career, used the verbatim talking points that came from her cult leader guru. This is a Washington Post report by John Swain. We can put this up on the screen. The headline here is, Tulsi Gabbard, her guru, and the mysterious messages that help helped shape her political career. And the journalist who tracked all of this down in an extraordinary investigation, John Swain joins us now. John, welcome. Great to have you.
- [28:29]
John Swain
Thanks for having me.
- [28:31]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, of course. So I would. This is the story of how you came across all of these memos being exchanged is incredible. The content of the memos themselves is extraordinary. So why don't we start with the backstory here of how you stumbled upon this story, how you dug into it and were able to come up with this treasure trove of communication.
- [28:51]
John Swain
Sure. So there had been good coverage in recent years about the fact that Tulsi Gabbard grew up in this faith group, the Science of Identity foundation, but there was still this sort of central mystery of whether that mattered and what, if any, influence her guru, Chris Butler, who's the leader of the group, had on her and on her politics. And so when she was nominated to be Director of National Intelligence by Donald Trump, we at the Post decided we should try and answer that question. And I looked into it. In November 2024, I went to Hawaii. I tried to speak with people and kind of struck out. I got pretty much nowhere. No one wanted to talk to me. I got asked to leave the street where the guru lives by the police, and I kind of had to move on. And nine months later, someone from the group, a member of the group who I'd spoken with originally and had sort of played down the importance of the group and the importance of the guru to Tulsi Gabbard, she got back in touch. Her name's Rebecca Salzberg. And she basically told me, you know, I didn't really give you the full story last time. And over the course of weeks, she told me how she had actually worked very closely with Tulsi Gabbard on her election campaigns and had worked for and with the guru. She'd had meetings with him and spoken with him. And to cut a long story short, some questions I asked her prompted her to log into an old Gmail account that she had. And in that inbox, remarkably, were hundreds of memos which documented advice, guidance directives, talking points to Tulsi Gabbard from the years when she was in Congress.
- [30:31]
Krystal Ball
Now, the pushback that came from this faith group Some may say cult. I guess I'll leave it to the viewers to decide how they want to characterize. It was effectively these memos that you got your hands on, they're unsigned. You don't know who they came from. You don't know, you know, you don't know what this guidance directly, where it directly came from. So how did you go about ascertaining that? Pretty likely these memos were coming from the leader of the faith group himself.
- [31:00]
John Swain
So first of all, Rebecca Salzberg, the source I mentioned from the start, said, you know, she understood these to be from the guru, Chris Butler. She was one of the recipients of these documents. There was a small political team around the guru, including Rebecca and Tulsi's parents and a few other select disciples of the guru. And she was adamant. You know, these are all from Butler. And the reason they're unsigned is precisely to protect him in the event that a reporter or someone else got hold of them.
- [31:27]
Krystal Ball
Them.
- [31:28]
John Swain
And there are hundreds of them. And in 19 of them I managed to find that there were indirect identifications, self identifications that showed it was Butler. There would be times when the unsigned or the unnamed voice would be talking to Tulsi and saying, you know, I'm your guru, you're my disciple, that sort of thing. And so in those ones, it was obvious that it was Butler, as you said. The group basically said, well, sure, but all the other ones are not him. And it didn't really seem to like, hold much water. All of the documents were formatted exactly the same. There was nothing to distinguish the other ones from the ones where Butler did self identify. So it wasn't really clear to me how people receiving them were supposed to sort of distinguish who was speaking, if not only one person. And there were clues dotted around various documents. You know, there was this 173 page dossier of, of policy advice for Tulsi on all sorts of different things. And deep within it was just this offhand reminiscence about working as a teenager in Hawaii and the guru grew up in Hawaii. The two other people that the group claimed were behind these things did not. And so every piece of information that pointed towards someone in particular pointed toward the guru and to not someone else. There was never any counter indication among these documents. And so we feel that the evidence is pretty weighty. Rebecca, the source who gave us the documents, is adamant and says that they were Butler. And we lay out the case as to why in the story.
- [33:03]
Krystal Ball
So some people may say, okay, well, political candidates, they get advice From a variety of places. What's the big deal? And I think one of the things that's very compelling in your piece is you're able to track down these memos and the language that is offered in the memos. With direct verbatim tweets that were put out by Tulsi and also with specific language that she used in her media appearances. You pulled one example from a CNN media appearance at the time where the language is almost verbatim. What was suggested in the memo that appears to come from her guru? This is C3, guys, let's go ahead and play this so people can take a look.
- [33:41]
Saagar Enjeti
Look, the issue here is not about me saying, boo hoo, I'm gonna miss the party.
- [33:52]
Krystal Ball
So for those who are just listening, there's a visual comparison here of her language. Boo hoo. I'm not gonna miss the party or I'm gonna miss the party. With the language from the guru, which also included boo hoo, I'm gonna miss the party. So. And this was not an isolated instance. Talk about the overlap and how significant this advice was, how much Tulsi seemed to adhere to what she was being told to do, instructed to do via these memos.
- [34:20]
John Swain
Yeah, I think already three things, three areas that make it unusual and different to the usual situation that you mentioned where people have advisors who give them advice and sort of suggest things. One, the talking points memos that you just talked about out where we found 32 talking points documents for specific interviews she was to give. And in 24 instances, a colleague and I, Aaron Schaefer, went through the transcripts, compared them with the talking points. We found that she'd used almost verbatim phrasing from these documents and the other eight times similar ideas. You know, that's pretty remarkable. I think, you know, politicians, the principle in that relationship between advisor and politician gets advice and steers on where they should go and what they should avoid. But to use verbatim phrasing from one person, it seemed, seemed unusual. The second area is that in some of these memos we see remarkably specific instructions. Release a press release tomorrow on this, then propose a bill, and sure enough, the next day she releases a press release, and then week after proposes a bill in exactly the same terms as the memo recommended. And I think the third area that really sets it apart from this usual adviser politician relationship is this sharp criticism, this harsh language that the unnamed advisor who outsources is Butler criticizing Tulsi Gabbard for her poor performance as he saw it. So he uses expletives to tell her her no one cared about her response to Barack Obama's State of the Union speech. Tells her that she's mealy mouthed, that she's lazy, she hasn't done her homework. And you know, people I speak with say that's pretty unusual for an advisor to be being quite so bold in sort of in slapping down a member of Congress and telling them basically that they suck.
- [36:17]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [36:17]
John Swain
And so you know, that in those three ways it really seemed to be more than usual.
- [36:23]
Krystal Ball
You also document and your source, Rebecca was part of an effort to create sort of inorganic, you know, anonymous accounts or I guess, you know, with pseudonyms, fake accounts to back up and go to bat for Tulsi and various social media platforms. So that part is significant as well. But to your point about the language, I mean, some of it was really borderline abusive. It actually made me feel some sympathy for her because. Because it's long been known she was raised in this group. Her parents were high up in this group. Chris Butler has apparently been long been interested in politics. Ran a slate of candidates in Hawaii, so these pieces were known. But to see the sort of humiliating language there also gave a little bit of a sense of the way the mechanisms of control seem to work here where you would degrade someone. I remember at one point I think he said something like, don't worry, no matter how much you screw up tomorrow, me and Krishna will still love you. Things like that, that just seem sort of like classic manipulative and abusive techniques. I wanted you to respond to one of the criticisms I saw of your piece, which is that this is, you know, this is anti Hindu bigotry, that if this was a Christian group, you wouldn't single them out for such scrutiny in this same way, which personally I think if there is a Christian group operating this way and Christian groups are very influential in our politics, they should receive this level of scrutiny. But I wonder what is your response, response to, to that allegation?
- [37:52]
John Swain
It's pretty much what you just said. You know, if this were a Christian group and we've, we got hold of these documents that documented quite such harsh criticism and direct instructions, we would do the story that it would just make no difference. And you know, Tulsi Gabbard has long said that Chris Butler is her spiritual teacher and likened him to an imam, a priest, a rabbi. I think the piece makes pretty clear that this goes way beyond the usual relationship with a faith leader. And to come back around to what we were just both saying, if any rabbi, priest Imam were being quite so direct and quite so harsh with a member of Congress, we would do the story all the same. It has no difference.
- [38:37]
Krystal Ball
Last question for you is on the timing, because it is a little bit unfortunate. Now we're learning all this and she's out of the job. Her removal resignation, however you want to characterize it from her position as DNI, came shortly after your reporting on this story was set to drop. So what do you make of that timing? Was that incidental? Was that related to your piece? And why was there. I know you've been working on this for months. I'm not trying to impugn you here whatsoever, but I'm just curious about the timing of how this worked out because. Because for those of us on the on site, it's like, oh, dang, now that she's gone, we know all these things.
- [39:14]
John Swain
Sure. So you're right. Like I in late May sent her and her representatives a whole load of questions again and said, you know, we're probably going to go ahead with this. We would like your responses. And I gave her till 5pm Friday to respond. And 1pm Friday it was announced she was resigning. I don't know anything beyond that connection, honestly. She says, you know, it seems like her husband sadly was diagnosed with a serious cancer and he's receiving treatment and that's what she said she was leaving to do to support him. So, you know, the timing may be coincidental. I honestly don't know. In terms of the timing, yeah. It is a tough thing in the, in journalism where you try and get the story out as soon as you can, but it has to be ready. And, you know, to be honest, in March when I first went to Tulsi Gabbard, into the group and to other people named in the story, they came back with this claim that the memos were not from the guru. And although I felt there was evidence at odds with that, we had to take that seriously because that's what they say. And so I had to spend a lot more time digging into that, seeing whether there was any way that what they were saying was borne out in the evidence, in the documents. And I, you know, I didn't find anything that supported their version. But we, you know, as you know, we all get a lot of abuse from politicians for running, rushing to the story and not giving their side of the story. We wanted to take their side of the story seriously and we had to do that until it was ready and until we had all the responses we needed.
- [40:44]
Krystal Ball
John, fantastic work on this. I really recommend that people read the entire piece because I think it is quite extraordinary. Both, like I said, in terms of how you ended up with this trope, but also, of course, most importantly, what it reveals about the way that Tulsi Gabbard appears to have been operating. Thank you so much for joining us. I'm really grateful.
- [41:02]
John Swain
Thank you, bro.
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- [42:48]
Saagar Enjeti
So a while back we promised that we would do more coverage of the conflict that's raging in Sudan. And then another massive war broke out as that one is receding. The war between, hopefully receding between the us, Iran, Israel, Hezbollah. We want to pick back up on some of that coverage and particularly at this moment because. And you can roll E1 here, the RSF, which is the UAE funded kind of rebel group in Sudan is threatening to take on, is threatening to an incredible massacre in Alobaid. So previously, as we reported when the RSF took over a city called Al Fasher, the amount of bloodshed and put up E2. Now the amount of bloodshed is difficult to calculate. There are estimates that range well into the tens of thousands if not, if not even above 100,000 in the number of people killed. The, the, the mass graves that were vi visible from the air. We, we had, we spoken to guests here who did satellite analysis there where you, and you could just, you could see it literally from outer space. The amount of mass murder by this UAE backed massive death squad. And now they're on the precipice of doing it again as, as the world just, just continues to watch. We can put up E3. This is Nathaniel Raymond who's the head of Yale's humanitarian Research Lab which has been doing the most significant work kind of analyzing and trying to bring attention to this crisis and this looming massacre which again there are hundreds of tens or hundreds of thousands of people alive right now who may not be very soon if the world doesn't, doesn't do something to stop the UAE's backed forces here. So she, so he testified in front of a UK committee saying that you know, they, effectively what he's saying is that if, if anybody just says anything about the UAE here, just one word, just, just say something and highlight the fact that the UAE is facilitating this, it will raise the cost to them of doing it such that, that it just simply may not happen. Now we can put up E4 here. The state Department has issued a warning that this massacre is possible. They write there are alarming indications that mass atrocities could be imminent, further worsening Sudan's already catastrophic humanitarian crisis, unquote. And it's, and then they call on RSF and their allies but they again not, not mentioning the uae. And as drop site reports here previously, we, we've been able to track military cargo shipments that went from the UAE to Libya and then move from there into Sudan. So there's no mystery about what's happening here. Now Julian Andreoni, my drop site reporter up on the Hill, caught up with Chris Van Holland who has probably been the center who's been most out out outspoken on this in the House. It's been Sarah Jacobs and, and asked him both about the UA's role and what, what he thinks can be done to try to prevent this. Let's roll. That we just need to keep the, the pressure on. I mean they're obviously you know we need to keep showing the hypocrisy of the Trump administration policy where they, they claim they want to do something but refuse to take, take some of the basic actions we could take as a country. We just need to keep the pressure on. So I saw your statement about the 6,000 civilians who were killed by the RSF in October. Now there's 500,000 more at risk. I'm wondering whether you've spoken with the ambassador to the UAE or what the progress is with that. Well, I have in the past. But more recently, as part of, part of a Senate Foreign Relations Committee markup on a bill dealing with Sudan, I propose two amendments. The first amendment would be to say that the United States will not sell transfer military equipment to the UAE so long as the UAE continues to finance the murderous RSF organization which has been responsible for these huge atrocities. And the transcript will be available pretty soon. But nobody seemed to object on the merits, but Republicans all voted no on that. Some Democrats voted now. So I offered another amendment that said any party that is fueling the war in Sudan. And so in order to bring, be able to carry out this, this extraordinary level of violence around the world, particularly in Sudan, while also maintaining a decent image globally, the UAE engages in some of the most aggressive, what they call sports washing in the country. And that's through their financing of both the NBA and also a bunch of different football teams. I want to roll real quickly. This is Jeremy Kannandyk, who's the president of Refugees International, talking about the way that even Mamdani with an Arsenal jersey with the sport of that NBA never and never raising the level of involvement that the UAE has with these, has some level of complicity as well. Let's roll this.
- [48:24]
John Swain
Another question came in.
- [48:26]
Dr. Trita Parsi
Did Mayor Mandani send the wrong message
- [48:28]
Saagar Enjeti
with his Arsenal Away jersey at eid? Seems he'd be an ally to your efforts. Yeah, we, we, we saw that for sure. We're going to reach out to his office. I think what it underscores is just how, you know how effective this sports washing approach is, right? People put an Arsenal jersey on. They put an NBA jersey on. They don't even think about what it says on the front. It's just that they don't think about what that implies and what they are part of when they do that. And so I think what we, that is also the importance of a campaign like this one. If people become aware, just as John described in the case with Rhonda, people become aware of, of what they are representing when they have that on the front of their shirt, what that means, what they are part of, why that name is on there. I think there will be a backlash. And, and, you know, I do hope Mayor Mamdani will try to engage him on that. I gotta think he would be sympathetic to understanding why that's problematic. And, and the unique thing about Dan, about, about the NBA is that. And we mentioned this already, but it's this history of support for social justice causes, particularly racial justice. And when we're talking about genocide that's occurring in Sudan, genocide is the deliberate destruction of people's lives and livelihoods on the basis of their identity, their race, their ethnicity. This is exactly what the RSF is doing. This is the group that the you. That the UAE has decided to support in the Sudan conflict. The war would not be as remotely as destructive to human life if the UAE was not involved in it. That's the news. The. The UAE is on the cusp of carrying out a horrific massacre in El Obeida. Hasn't happened yet. Doesn't. Doesn't have to happen. But if none of the countries that are allies with the UAE say a word to them about it, it's going
- [50:27]
Krystal Ball
to happen, and the world will once again stand by and watch. And you do have some countries, as you point out, like the US that are willing to say, like, don't slaughter civilians, but unwilling to put any culpability or use any of the immense leverage and pressure that could be brought to bear to stop the arming of the RSF and just to give people a little bit more detail and texture here of what's going on if they haven't followed this closely. So, first of all, the reason this particular city is really, you know, is even more consequential is because you have mass displacement already of, you know, people who are now refugees within Sudan and also externally from Sudan. And this city. Al Ubaid is one of the primary places where people have gathered, where internally displaced people have already gone. So you have. You showed earlier the images of people in Tensio. These are people who have already been forced to flee their homes and estimates are, you know, a hundred thousand plus who are now congregated in this city, which is effectively experiencing a siege at this point. And all these RSF forces are amassing. It's also, I think people will understand why the UAE is involved and other regional players are involved here too, because Sudan has this critical geostrategic location on the Red Sea. And so given we can apply what we've learned with regard to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to understanding why there is some such a rush to fund the sides of this war, this horrific. You can't really even call it a civil war because it's really not about the people there. The democratic movement was displaced by these, what were once in concert, these two military sides that then split off from each other after they successfully executed this military coup. So there really is no side that's the good side or on the side of the people. They're just different forms of military dictatorship that want to be implemented here. So in any case, there's, you know, it's a geostrategic positioning. It's about fight for natural resources. There are ethnic, you know, divisions that are certainly at play here. The RSF is basically like an Arab group of Arab supremacist death squad is effectively what I would. What I would call it. But in any case, that's why so many countries have interested themselves, including the uae, in, you know, in this war. War and in fueling this. This violence and these mass atrocities.
- [52:55]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. And meanwhile, the Trump and his family are just completely on the take from the uae. It would be nice if Trump was like, oh, hey, this would be my 37th war that I could end and so I can get, you know, another FIFA Peace Prize or whatever. But when he hears the UAE is involved, he's like, oh, never mind. You know.
- [53:16]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [53:16]
Saagar Enjeti
Like, it's the level of corruption. It's is kind of unprecedented to have a president that is this conflicted that, you know, he's literally.
- [53:25]
Krystal Ball
I don't think it's kind of unprecedented. I think it is unprecedented. I don't think we've ever seen anything equivalent or even remotely equivalent.
- [53:33]
Saagar Enjeti
Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Yeah, it's. Yeah. And so unless people start raising the cost for the UAE of doing this, they're going to keep doing it.
- [53:47]
Krystal Ball
Yep.
- [53:47]
Saagar Enjeti
And it wouldn't. It's not that hard to raise the cost. They don't want any attention on this right now. They're getting none if there's just a little. Makes it very hard for them to keep doing.
- [54:00]
Krystal Ball
Well, shout out to Chris Van Hollen and Sarah Jacobs for doing all that they can from the House and the Senate with very little backup and, you know, with a lot of odds against them. So, you know, make sure you guys are engaging with your members of Congress to encourage them to sign on to these efforts. And we are going to push the Elon vs. Roe conversation to tomorrow because we had too much to say about the elections from last night. I think people will be okay with that. But I have a feeling that Roe and Elon, the world's first trillionaire, will still be fighting tomorrow as it seems like it's going. So we can cover that then. And I'm sure we're also going to get into a lot of there's just I have so much to say about what's going to happen and the media reaction and the Democratic establishment freak out. That's going to be very juicy to dive into tomorrow as well. So it'll be me and Ryan and back here again tomorrow. Any last thoughts, Ryan?
- [54:50]
Saagar Enjeti
No. Looking. Looking forward to it.
- [54:53]
Krystal Ball
Get some rest.
- [54:54]
Saagar Enjeti
Takeover.
- [54:55]
Krystal Ball
Get some rest. I'll see you back here tomorrow and see you guys back here tomorrow too.
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Saagar Enjeti
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