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Krystal Ball
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Krystal Ball
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Krystal Ball
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Krystal Ball
Welcome to Breaking Points. We have an extraordinary show for you today because there was a political earthquake in New York City last night as Zoran Mamdani candidates swept the field in their races for federal office. Two Democratic incumbents have been tossed out. Truly, truly an extraordinary political night. Ryan Grim was there for the whole thing. He got lots of exclusive interviews. He is going to join us both for that analysis and also overall for my as my co host this morning. So we will dig into all of those races and what it will mean going forward for the Democratic Party and also for the country. Also keeping our eye on Iran and the way Congress could thwart any potential deal coming together. Dr. Trita Parsi is going to join me to give his analysis there. We've got a stunning report from the Washington Post about the way that Tulsi Gabbard has been taking orders, marching orders and getting talking points from her guru throughout her political career and even, you know, potentially into her time here as dni. The reporter on that story is going to join me to explain the wild story of how he got access to this treasure trove of materials. With regard to Tulsi Gabbard, there is a big fight going down between Elon Musk, the richest man on the planet, and Ro Khanna. Actually his representative in Silicon Valley is Elon is now threatening to sue Roe. Roe was responding. This is all over what Elon did to USAID and also Roe's continuing efforts to push taxes on the rich. And finally, we did not want to lose sight of what is happening in Sudan where another mass atrocity is being threatened. So we'll break down what we know and why nations around the world are sounding the alarm about a potential human catastrophe that that is on the verge of happening there in that war torn country. So before we jump in, guys, thank you so much for your support. If you want to become a premium member, get access to all the things breaking points. Com. I think the transition at this point has gone pretty smoothly. Back over to Supercast. We're certainly happy with the service we're getting there and hope that you are too. All right, with all of that being said, let's go ahead and jump into these extraordinary election results. So Zoran Mandani backed a number of DSA candidates, both for federal office but also for state legislative, legislative offices. And he swept across the board. He also endorsed Brad Lander, who's not technically a DSA candidate, against Dem incumbent Dan Goldman. As I said before, truly a political earthquake. Let's take a listen to a little bit of Zoran celebrating these extraordinary victories at Claire Valdez, who was able to win an open seat there at her victory party. Let's take a look.
Zoran Mamdani / Campaign Clips
My friends, I know many of you have been canvassing for months and at those canvases, at those fundraisers, at those events, when we introduce our Candidates, we use a language of hope. We say the next assembly member, the next State senator, the next Congressperson. Tonight we use the language of fact.
Ryan Grim
So please join me in welcoming up
Zoran Mamdani / Campaign Clips
to the stage Assemblywoman Deanna Moreno,
Ryan Grim
Assembly member david organ, Assemblywoman Samantha Kattan, State senator abeir coast. And the one, the only, Congresswoman Claire Valdez.
Krystal Ball
Absolutely massive night for him where he answered his critics. Going up against a bunch of Democratic power brokers. We'll get into more of that with Ryan in just a second. Also, just as a reminder, Zorin launched his slate of candidates at the federal level with this incredible ad during the Knicks playoff run. Let's go ahead and take a look at that.
Zoran Mamdani / Campaign Clips
New York we know anything's possible with a great team.
Ryan Grim
I'm Brad Lander and I'll block billionaires from buying our elections.
Krystal Ball
I'm Marielisa Avila Chevalier and I'll defend New York by abolishing ice. I'm Claire Valdez and I'll stand up against bad landlords and greedy corporations.
Zoran Mamdani / Campaign Clips
Get out and vote. This is the team. This is our year.
Ryan Grim
I'm Brad Lander.
Krystal Ball
I'm Claire Valdez. I'm Darielisa Avila Chevalier and we approve this message. I mean I don't know that their opponents really ever stood a chance. Just take look at that ad. Let's put the actual results up on the screen here before we bring Ryan in. Let me just break these down a little bit for you guys. So hold on, this, this is New York's 7th congressional district, commonly known as the commie corridor. So Nidi Velasquez, who was herself a very powerful member of Congress, powerful inside of New York, had her own power base there, progressive congresswoman. She retired and she endorsed Antonio Reynoso who had a slew of sort of established power player endorsements, a bunch of unions behind him. Nydia Velasquez herself. So a relatively progressive candidate but not as clear throated a opponent of genocide and in favor of moving away from the current status with regard to Israel. Status quo. Claire Valdez, who had the endorsement of dsa, had the endorsement of Zoran Mamdani. Also Hasan Piker will talk a little bit more about Hasan and the way he deserves some credit here as a kingmaker in these races as well. In any case, with their backing she was able to defeat Antonio Reynoso who did not come out of nowhere. He was the Brooklyn borough president. And not only did she win, she wins here overwhelmingly. This is a 21 point victory, close to 21 points victory with 92% of the votes in was not even close. Let's go to the next one. We can break this one down as well. This is the 12th district now. In this one you didn't have a Zoron candidate. The differences between these, the, the top candidates in this race were less along the lines of Israel and Palestine and genocide. Michael Lasher was the the choice of retiring Democrat Jerry Nadler. This was another open seat. Alex Boris has really positioned himself as an AI critic. You can see that did pretty well for him, but not enough for to be able to overtake Michael Lasher. There were tens of millions dollars spent from AI packs in this race. We'll get Ryan to break those dynamics down for us when he joins. Let's go ahead and take a look at the next one. 13th district here. This one was the real shocker. So Adriano Espail, Democratic incumbent. I believe he's been in office for five terms. So long term, you know, he's been there for a decade. I actually was living in this district when he got elected. It was quite a while ago. He is the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. He is again a real power broker. This is not a backbencher. This is someone very influential within the Democratic caucus, of course, had all of the establishment backing. Darieliza Avila Chevalier, who we just had on the show along with Claire Valdez the other day. She was an organizer at the Columbia University student encampment. She was motivated in part by her disgust over the treatment arrest of Mahmoud Khalil and Congressman Espoyet's failure to stand up for him and to, you know, to fight for him and his support of the brutal tactics against those protesters, against those pro Palestine protesters. She was subject to incredible racist attacks and smears in the final days and weeks of this key campaign. And yet here she is, having never sought elected office before, with all of the establishment players backing Espail, she was able to knock him off. Why? Because of the mood of the Democratic base and because of the endorsement of Zoran Mamdani and also potentially some very significant phone banking from the Hasan Piker community, which I do think plays a role in here, especially given the fact that this race was relatively close. This one is truly the most shocking and an absolute political earthquake. And then last but not least, let's take a look at this race between Brad Lander and Dan Goldman. Goldman being a Democratic incumbent here, this is a lower Manhattan district primarily, primarily Brad Lander, just not even close here. You know, 30 point victory. You just don't see this typically with incumbent candidates, sometimes they lose. That in and of itself is extraordinary. But losing by 30 points, 30 plus points is truly wild. Uh, you guys will remember Brad Lander. We've also had on the show a few different times. He was a mayoral candidate but when he realized that, you know, the path was not open for him, he made the decision to to endorse Zoran Mamdani. They did sort of like a co endorsement. Leaning into the primary was he was one of his most important validators especially you know, sort of assuaging concern in the Jewish community. Blander himself being Jewish and was an important part of that coalition that brought Zoran Mamdani to victory. Zoran backed him in this race and it ends up not even being close. Last thing before we bring Ryan in, if we could put a 7 up on the screen just to show that the Dem Tea Party vibes were not exclusively in New York last night. This is analysis from Taniel who does a great job following all of these elections. He says across New York and Maryland, I'm counting 12 Democratic incumbents who lost or in one case are trailing to a challenger to their left. Two Congress members, those what we just talked about, both In New York, four state senators, two in New York, two in Maryland, six state House members, five in New York and one in Maryland. So 12 Democratic incumbents falling to left wing rivals. Some extraordinary upsets in New York City and a lot to dig into now with Ryan Grim who's there on the ground?
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Krystal Ball
got our very own Ryan Grimm who is there in New York City. And Ryan, we usually call, we affectionately refer to this version of the show with you and I hosting as the Commie Takeover. And I think the name has never been more apt than it is perhaps right now.
Ryan Grim
I think that's right. Yeah. I'm joining you from a hotel in the commie corridor where I don't think the commies went to bed last night. I think they are still up and they're, they're, this bender is going to go at least sometime into next week.
Krystal Ball
So what was the energy? Tell us what you did yesterday, who you talked to, what your impression was of why these races went the way they did. Obviously, the big headline takeaway here is Zoran Mamdani. His entire slate of candidates swept across the board, including, he took some extraordinary risks here, you know, Darieliza versus the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus taking on the Brooklyn borough president and Nydia Velasquez's choice and all the unions, you know, all the, that backing down ballot. He also, you know, picked a number of fights that turned out victorious here. Is that your sense, is that Zorin really made the difference here? Were there other dynamics play playing out that you would point to?
Ryan Grim
Yes. So I was, I spent most of the Day in Harlem yesterday, because I figured if, if it was going to be a huge sweep, then it was going to be Dariel Lisa that kind of put the third of them over the top. And talking to canvassers out there with what they told me, actually one of them said that on the door, the voter learned about Dariel Lisa from Breaking Points. That was kind of interesting. But, but other. But other than that, what they were saying is that when the race was sleepy, she was kind of, she was competitive and they thought that she had a real chance. But then after he endorsed, the understanding of the race among voters that they were communicating with went from 0 to 60. Like all, like all of a sudden, the day before, you were like, oh yeah, I think I've heard of Darry something. Maybe to. Then after Mamdani endorsed, everybody they spoke to was like, oh yeah, that's. She's the one that Mamdani is supporting. I'm supporting her. It was, they said it was like night and day from his endorsement. So. And I, and I think that part of the feature, the benefit of these kind of new, inexperienced, untested candidates for Mamdani is exactly that, that they don't actually have their own outside of dsa, which, you know, he's kind of the leader of at this point. Outside of gsa, they don't have their own kind of political base and their own political track record. And so they are just kind of loyal foot soldiers now of this, of this DSA Mom Donnie movement that is rising in New York City. So, yeah, you know, once Brad Lander's race was called at like 908 or something. 909, which may. A friend was emailing me and saying that it. Among Democrats, that's the biggest loss of an incumbent in forever. Like, you'd have to go back really far.
Krystal Ball
Liz Cheney, in terms of the point differential, right.
Ryan Grim
Liz Cheney got washed, I think, even worse than Dan Goldman, but not a whole lot worse. I mean, she got hammered. But on the Democratic side, you know, even Joe Crowley lost, you know, by like 15 or something like that. He just got absolutely annihilated. So then once he lost and then the early vote comes in and Claire Valdez is, is significantly ahead, and then she gets called by like 9, 39, 45. The mood at the, at the Darieliza headquarters was a bullion. And then, you know, the wins at the, at the, at the state legislative level just kept rolling in. And it, it was kind of stunning to some people who thought that the, the attacks on her being a Muslim, Haitian, who, you know, said, f Kamala Harris. Like, they thought that combination would be enough for the kind of older voters in the district to turn them off. But it didn't. And imagine you're Kamala Harris right now thinking about running for president in 2028. Like, the biggest issue in that race was that tweet of hers, and she still won. That has to really, I think, shake things up for the Democratic Party bosses.
Krystal Ball
And my understanding, Ryan, based on an analysis I saw, is that Dariel Issa is a very diverse district that she's running to, one that I know relatively well. She won black voters, in spite of the fact that obviously there's an affinity with black voters and the first female vice president. And I know that's why a big part of why they were sending out those mailers that featured her tweet saying, fuck Kamala Harris, and ended up not being enough. I'm actually wondering if some of those just blatantly racist attacks on her, calling to question her ethnicity, using the word Haitian as if it's a Slurpee floating, some sort of, like, weird, great replacement theory that she and Zoran were gonna displace Dominicans and replace them with Haitians and Muslims in the district, et cetera. I'm wondering if some of that stuff didn't ultimately backfire on Espayat. It certainly, in retrospect, now reads as quite desperate of a tactic.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, I think that's right. I think certainly for some Dominican voters, that kind of anti Haitian slur is going to land. But espionage has history in this district, and he attempted a couple times to take Charlie Rangel out and eventually succeeded in knocking out Charlie Rangel, who in the black community in Harlem, extraordinarily popular, served for, like, you know, 40 years up there. Kind of a larger than life figure. Before him was this guy, Adam Clayton Powell, who served for like, what, another 40 or 50 years, like this absolutely legendary Harlem member of Congress. So he. He broke that kind of train from Adam Clayton Powell to Charlie Rangel. And so that was only 10 years ago. So he didn't. So he didn't have a big kind of, well, of goodwill to draw on. And so then I think when you. When he comes in and says, oh, well, she's actually Haitian, it felt off. And it. And it did not work, particularly with that district. He also. One of his big kind of slogans that he had up around the district, he would say, an attack on one of us is attack on all of us. And it would be a picture of him and like Tish James and the attack, I'm like, wait, what is he talking about here? Oh, the. Oh, he's saying that the attack is him getting a primary challenger. And so you're trying to lump us all in together. No, like, you have a. You have a primary challenge. He's not. Not attacking us here. And that backfired, too.
Krystal Ball
Interesting. You know, I. Obviously, Zoron, you know, comes out here as the kingmaker. Like, every single one of his candidates won. The vast majority of those, I think, all of them, except for Brad Lander, who's not a DSA member. All of the rest of them were DSA members. So, huge, huge win for dsa. But I also want to say I think Hassan Piker has genuinely been extremely impactful in his community. They reportedly phone banked, like 90,000 calls for Dariel Issa in the last days of this campaign. The campaign says that, you know, that resulted in at least 2,000 voters going out to the polls for her. The margin of victory is not a lot more than 2,000 votes. Not to mention Ryan, you know, centrists really decided, starting with the Zorin campaign, that they were going to try to make Hasan and his most controversial statements a centerpiece of their attack on the left and talk about strategies that completely backfired. I think they successfully did, in a way, make him a litmus test. But for a Democratic base that is overwhelmingly now disgusted with the genocide, pro Palestine, opposed to the status quo of our relationship with Israel, in association with Hasan Piker became a symbol of, you're on the good side of this issue. You're with the good guys that oppose the genocide. So not only in terms of the actual organizing that he did, that may genuinely have helped to make the difference in this very close race with Dariel Issa, but also in the way that he became that they made him this litmus test. I don't know that I've seen a more foolhardy and disastrous political tactic that's been deployed. And you can see it's not just in New York City. Obviously, the other campaign that really stands out for this is Michigan. And Abdul Al Said, who has only surged to the lead in the polls since this whole flap about how dare you campaign with Hasan Piker. And one of his opponents, Mallory McMorrow, who chose the other side of that debate, has seen the complete collapsing of her political standing.
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Ryan Grim
And he also, I think, played a pivotal role in helping to elect Anna Hamowi in New Jersey. And then Chris Rab nearby in Philadelphia. He went out and rallied with them and campaigned with them, and they embraced him and it, and it helped them kind of pop off. I was with Hasan in Harlem yesterday while he was streaming. And you, I mean, you can see it on the stream. The, the reaction to him is, Is wild. Like, the number of people, you know, in that district, white, black, brown, new, you know, new. New residents, old residents, you know, who know who he is under, under 45 or so, all of them or under 40, but a very broad base. And a ton of people were, you know, coming up to him saying, like, they watched the stream regularly. They, they, they voted because of him. You know, they got into politics because of him. And thank, you know, thanking him for kind of giving some, you know, meaning and giving them some purpose, like it feels like they have, which he talks about on the stream is like that to, you know, channel your rage into your community and get active in order to kind of push back against this, the atomization and the kind of the depression that is. That just comes about from the kind of modern society that we live in. So, yeah, I think that all of these efforts by the New York Times or by Third Way or by any of these other candidates to try to stigmatize him have only elevated his visibility, which then forces people to polarize around that question of good and evil, you know, moral and immoral. And I think you're exactly right that when people have to face those questions, certainly in a Democratic primary, they're going to come down on the side of good.
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Let's go ahead and take a listen to just a little bit of Hasan reacting to some of the victories from last night. This is a 8. And him talking about how he may change his endorsement process going forward.
Ryan Grim
Hey, after tonight, my price went up. You have to be a democratic socialist if you want some of this fucking shine. Sorry.
Krystal Ball
So only DSA members may have lied out. I mean, talk about dsa, though, because obviously, very important for Zoron's victory. You know, he deserves a lot of credit for the risks that he took and the selective nature. You know, he didn't jump on board with everything. He, he famously refused to endorse Chi O Se against Hakeem Jeffries. And she decides, okay, I'm going to take a pass on this. Didn't endorse any of the challengers to Richie Torres. Torres is able to win, although, you know, his. His challengers did get some chunk of the vote. Didn't endorse. And I. This one I'm a little bit bummed about, but Chuck park actually came pretty close against Grace Meng with not a lot of support whatsoever. It seems like if he had had some endorsement and backing, he may actually have been able to get across the finish line there. And we spoke with him. He seems like a great guy and a great candidate as well. But talk about what this means for DSA and their role in the Democratic Party. I saw CNN with some polling that says, you know, DSA and socialists in general more popular than Democrats in Congress at this point. So it should be no surprise that in Democratic primaries you increasingly see DSA backed candidates rising to the top.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, and with Chiyo say, it was interesting way that he approached it. He did it kind of democratically. DSA is very famously a very democratic organization internally. And he, like any other member, kind of went to the New York City DSA and made his case for why they should not endorse him at this moment, just strategically and tactically. And he narrowly won that vote. And without that support, you know, Chi wasn't able to go forward. You know, clearly he wanted to, you know, focus his, his energy on other races. I think you're right, by the way, that in park should probably run again in two years. And if he gets, you know, if he gets any attention at all, he, he, I think he can, he can win, he can win that race. You know, New York, of course, is a little bit unique when it comes to the ability to have, you know, this many kind of young professionals in their 20s and 30s. And it's hard to replicate it everywhere around the country. But in major cities like Philadelphia and Chicago, where, where you do have, you know, urban cores, you're seeing, you know, similar ability to kind of come together. And it really, it really shows the hollowness of the kind of coalitional politics that say, like New York City's WFP represented in Brooklyn, like they, they got behind Antonio Reynoso, who had the support of basically all the labor unions, all these non, all these, you know, non profit progressive organizations that have, you know, memberships and that, you know, do work in the district. And they didn't have the kind of manpower behind it. Like it did not. There's something broken between it and voters. Like they weren't able to turn that out. So they're gonna have to do some real thinking about, you know, why, why DSA was able to, you know, build so much power in New York City. Whereas, whereas they couldn't. But they are the, you know, they're the predominant force in New York City politics at, at this point. And Just, you know, basically, you know, eight years ago was when, you know, June of 2018, when AOC won her shock primary. And in from then to now, they have become not just a player, but dominant.
Krystal Ball
I want to talk a little bit about AOC because in some ways I know she endorsed down ballot some of the same candidates as Zoran and they were predominantly successful. She not only didn't endorse any of the victorious federal candidates, she hasn't endorsed against any Democratic incumbents. And so, you know, that creates. She's had this like sort of very no risk strategy. Doesn't want to rock the boat with her relationships inside the house. That's, you know, apparently the reason why also she decided not to endorse her own chief of staff, Shoikat Chakrabotti, in a way that could have very much made a difference for him too. And so while Zoron is rightfully being recognized as like this kingmaker now, it's pretty wild to see AOC who in a lot of ways kicked off this moment and this movement that, you know, ultimately builds to where we are today. Seeing her being absent from the movement that it'd be. It's very easy to imagine her being the one that's getting all the credit now. Like, look at all the power AOC has. And yet she's decided de facto to effectively be an incumbent protector since she refuses to endorse against any of them. I find that pretty, you know, pretty extraordinary. I mean, she wouldn't even endorse Brad Lander, for example, in a race that was almost a slam dunk against Dan Goldman. And it's easy to take that for granted because that was kind of a foregone conclusion, the margin was so large. But as you brightly point out, anytime any incumbent goes down, that's pretty wild. So what do you make of AOC being on the sidelines for this big Dem Tea Party moment? Because I think it's a, you know, I think it's a. In terms of, you know, as someone who wants to see these candidates succeed, it's unfortunate to see the level of power that she could bring not being brought to bear in these instances, but also if she has bigger national ambitions, it really seems like a massive political missed opportunity for her.
Ryan Grim
Right. I mean, just we've been talking about, you know, kind of Mamdani and the DSA through this whole conversation because she, you know, absented herself from it. The Dan Goldman example is, is really perfect because can you imagine if the shoes on the other foot, you know, if AOC had a credible challenger in her district. You think Dan Goldman of all people is going to give her the respective incumbency and not support that? Like, so she's giving, you know, she's throwing her weight. She didn't endorse him, but like she didn't help Brad Lander. She's doing this for people who. Whose political project is to destroy her.
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
Ryan Grim
Now that's not the case with that with Brooklyn 7, which is Clara Valdez. And I, and I saw her after her victory last night. And AOC was one of the few calls that, that Claire took that was an open race like that, that there wasn't even an incumbent there. What was different there is that Nydia Velazquez, who. A Puerto Rican congresswoman who's retiring and had been and had become something of a mentor to AOC on Capitol Hill, was retiring and she wanted Reynoso. And so she pushed very hard for AOC to stay out of the race. And aoc, out of respect for that relationship, decided to do so. But that's an interesting decision. Like this is a retiring Mamdani had
Krystal Ball
a kind of a similarly difficult decision because he didn't. He. Is that the one where he actually told her like, oh, I'm not gonna.
Ryan Grim
That was.
Krystal Ball
Oh, it was as bad. Where there was a pledge that was made but supportive of him.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And Momdani very well could have come up with some type of candidate that both, you know, Nidia Velasquez, a WFP and DSA could all agree on like that, that, that there was a path to that. But. But they decided, no, we're. We're going, we're going to, we're going to fight this. We're going all the way forward. And then AOC stayed out of it. And then. Yeah. Also stayed out of, of the, of the espionage race. Even though, even though, you know, apac, which would love to see AOC project destroyed, was spending millions to try to boost espionage.
Zoran Mamdani / Campaign Clips
Yeah.
Ryan Grim
The difference in ruthlessness between her and Mamdani is. Is. Is interesting there because to your point. Yeah. All the reporting is. And this is my understanding too, that when Espayat endorsed, after the primary, as endorsed Mamdani, Mamdani, you know, promised not to primary him or to get behind a challenger. And. And yeah, he did that, which is, you know, shows kind of how cutthroat he is, which is unusual on the, on the left.
Krystal Ball
It is very unusual. In fact, I don't recall ever seeing it. So it's pretty incredible. You know, a couple of the. So I watched some of the CNN coverage last night, and you and I are co hosting again tomorrow. We'll do a whole thing on like the media reaction and the establishment reaction. We'll get it, we'll get into all of that worry. But a couple of things that I heard from Republicans and from the Neera Tandems and Cory Bookers of the world is like, well, this is still, if you look at the watch parties or the victory parties, it's still mostly these young white professionals. And that's what DSA ultimately is. My view is that's an increasingly difficult. Not that there isn't some truth, like in terms of the bedrock, like the core sort of organizing base of the dsa. I think there is some truth there, but it becomes a very difficult argument to sustain when now just with the victories last night, you had extremely diverse districts that were won in every borough of the city, save for Staten Island. So how can you look, for example, at Dariel Lisa, who obviously herself is not white and who won the, you know, majority of the, the black voters in the district and say, oh, this is just a thing for, for white gentrifiers in these, in these neighborhoods.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And I think if they only won with these like, gentrified neighborhoods and it's a bunch of gentrifiers that are doing the organizing, then I, then I think you have a pretty clean hit on that. But both in Mamdani's mayoral race and then in espionage here, I mean, Brooklyn 7 so gentrified that it's kind of beyond. There's, it's very like, that's just what it is. But in Harlem, like you were saying, you know, they, you know, Dariel Lisa won a significant portion and probably a majority of the black vote in Harlem. So what I would say to people who were like, who are skeptical of this, this element of politics, is that okay, yes, it is true that in the past a lot of voters would support somebody like an espeot. And you feel like those voters are kind of getting pushed out by these people who are coming in and they've got their laptops and they're really good at this block by block organizing. But what's so critical is that they're not doing it with big money, they're not doing it with corporate money, they're not doing it with APAC support, they're doing it with small dollars, which means that it is a clean fight. It's bringing actual democracy to these districts. And so the previous supporters of Espeat, if they don't like exactly what Daria Lisa is doing, they actually now have a way to influence her with their just individual voices and with their organized voices in a way that they didn't. When it's organized money that is controlling the districts. And so it really opens up, you know, possibilities for kind of all voters in the, in these districts.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I also, you know, I sort of object to the idea of dividing people along these racial lines. In any case, you know, the young white professionals who moved into these districts are also desperate for affordable housing and, you know, and to. And support for genocide. So there's, I think, also a lot more common cause and common, you know, concerns among these voting blocs than is sometimes portrayed where they, you know, I mean, we saw it in Darieliza's race where they tried to exploit ethnic divisions and it obviously didn't end up working on ESPAD's behalf on that point.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, DSA has been objectively, if you count the races that they've won at the state and federal level, the most successful, actually, in Queens, which is Queens doesn't get as much attention as Brooklyn or the Bronx or Manhattan for whatever reason. But Queens is the most diverse, maybe the most diverse kind of urban area in the world.
Krystal Ball
Truly is like the melting pot of the world in Queens.
Ryan Grim
It really is. It really is.
Krystal Ball
And.
Ryan Grim
And they are more dominant there than anywhere else. And so that should tell you something about the way that their class politics are able to bring so many diverse people together.
Krystal Ball
The other thing that I have heard, Ryan, is, oh, well, this doesn't really matter because it's just New York City and New York City's different. And so, you know, that's nice for you, but this is not going to be replicable in other places to which I would say, okay, well, let's take a look at Grand Platner. Does Maine count? Let's take a look at Abdul Al Said. Michigan, I think, is a pretty important state in the country. So we're going to talk a little bit more in the minute, in a minute about the way, you know, positions on Israel have really become central to all of this. But I think anyone who's trying to deny that there is a kind of nationwide reckoning that is happening in the Democratic Party is just ultimately deluding themselves.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And also just throughout history, New York has really driven American politics. Like it was the crucible of the anti slavery kind of politics that then surged. It was the progressive reformers really were dominant in New York first before they kind of became national early 1900s. FDR obviously comes out of New York. Like, the idea that New York is this kind of separate entity from the rest of the United States ignores the fact that the politics there usually end up influencing national politics relatively quickly and in a profound way.
Krystal Ball
The last argument I heard is like, well, careful what you wish for. Darieliza has some, I think it's fair to say, radical views, you know, against cops and borders and, like, the things that they caricature that Kamala Harris is saying. Like, she actually holds some of those views and took down some tweets. We asked her about it the other day, the famous, you know, fuck Kamala Harris line, et cetera. I know that there's a lot of angst in the Democratic Party that, like, oh, my God, now they're going to say we're open borders. And I'm like, they've been saying that all along, so I'm not sure that really changes the game for you here.
Ryan Grim
Right, so. Right. They've been saying you're open borders. They're saying you're prison abolition. And so, yeah, now they can. Now they can point to her. I would say just don't. Don't have candidates that are so bad that you lose to people like that. I mean. I mean, come on. Like, it's. It's pretty. It's pretty embarrassing. And at the same time, when the Republicans have Randy Fine in the House and Donald Trump in the White House, I think the public's kind of willingness to get worked up about kind of, you know, one individual's, you know, out. Their position on one thing is pretty limited.
Krystal Ball
Yeah. And I also. I mean, I hate the comparison between, you know, someone who wants a different system of policing and more immigrants and someone.
Ryan Grim
That's not what I mean.
Krystal Ball
Let's nuke an entire. Let's do a holocaust just out in the open. So there is. There is that as well. Lastly, before we move on to the Israel piece, let me put up a seven, because we have, you know, kind of a list here of some of the other races from Taniel. I put this up earlier as well, but it wasn't just New York. We've got New York and Maryland. I know you were following some of these races in Maryland, so I wanted to get you to weigh on this in particular, Tanya says, I'm counting 12 Democratic incumbents who lost or in one case, are trailing to challenge her. To their left, two Congress members, four state senators, six state House members. And then he breaks all of that down. So what was noteworthy in Maryland to you in particular? Ryan that you were following.
Ryan Grim
Actually, I've got to look. Cause I know they were going after the Senate leader and I've got to check to see if he was one of the ones that, that went down. He was standing in the way of the redistricting effort that Democrats wanted to do. I'll, I'll check that. We can talk about it tomorrow. But yeah, down in Southern Maryland, we covered this race a little bit. This guy apac, Adrian Boaffo, who was a former Steny Hoyer aide and got $12 million in APAC and crypto support. He wound up winning, but in a, it was a crowded field of literally 24 candidates and so he wound up with just 32% of the vote. So I haven't done the math yet, but $12 million to get that, that poor of a performance gave kind of aipac the only thing that they could celebrate last night. They did a big, they did their, their line they always use being pro Israel is good policy and good politics. Congratulations to Adrian. You know, so such great politics that normally they, they kind of funnel the money behind a different pack like they did with, with Espayat. But so they did. They won that race, but otherwise just a brutal night for them. And even there, like you lost 68% of the vote. Like not, not that impressive.
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Krystal Ball
Race that had a real different dynamic was the which that Upper west side, Upper east side district. I get more 12, 13, whatever that one was. Michael Lasher, who was the, the candidate, you know, chosen by Jerry Nadler to succeed him. He ends up pulling it off, is pretty close with Alex Borz. Boras definitely positioned himself as an AI critic. Tens of millions of dollars of AI PAC money flowed into this race. I know you follow this closely. Isn't this one where the anthropic AI PAC, which is supposedly pro regulation, backed Boraz, the OpenAI PAC backed Lasher? It became a bit of a central issue. I know voters were telling some of the reporters in the area that that was part of what they were voting on. Israel didn't loom as large in this race because the candidates had kind of similar, relatively, you know, status quo, friendly positions on Israel. So what did you see as noteworthy in that particular race?
Ryan Grim
Yeah, it was closer, I think, than people thought it would be, which suggests that there is a decent amount of anxiety, you know, in, particularly in that district, but also I think everywhere about the role that AI is playing. There was some fear that if Boris lost that, that that would be a signal to Democrats that they need to just completely bend the knee to AI or risk, you know, getting, you know, massively the way they did on crypto. Right, exactly. But I don't think the results signal that to Democrats. I think they. I think it remains kind of an open fight, particularly because the public is just so hostile on the other side of this issue. So, yes, like, the AI money might come at you, but voters are going to come at you if you, if you're connected with their higher electricity bills and, and on also, all of the kind of anxiety tied to the massive, you know, economic disruption that AI promises to bring.
Krystal Ball
Let's talk about Israel, because I do think this was really central in many of these races, but in particular those three in New York City, you know, with Dariel, Lisa in particular. So she was an organizer at the Columbia University encampments. Now she's going to be their member. Is like, she was just, just not long ago getting arrested as a protester, and now she's going to represent that district. Pretty incredible turnabout. She said she was really motivated by the treatment of Mahmoud Khalil and Representative espionage, failure to stand up for him. When he was arrested, you had a chance to actually speak with Makmun Khalil, who was there, you know, in, in the district and is close with Darieliza. Let's go ahead and play 8, 10.
Mahmoud Khalil
There are consequences of abandoning, abandoning your communities. There are consequences of supporting a genocidal state. So I really feel sort of like some sort of justice. Although my fight is not final yet, but even if I get deported, to me, the fact that the American public now is well aware of APAC's tactics, very, very, you know, like, dirty tactics. That's enough for me. Like, even if I get the fourth, at least now we're getting that change. We're getting, you know, like, not only with Darieliza, we have, you know, Claire Valdez also won campaign Adam Amui and of course, Chris Rob in the past. So this is, to me is really like, I feel sort of like some sort of justice. I got some sort of justice even if I don't get it from the courts, at least I'm getting it from the public opinion.
Krystal Ball
And by the way, the Trump administration is still trying to deport him, which is what he refers to there. I mean, there is something really beautiful and poetic about this.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And he so Dagger Lisa and he knew each other from the in, from the encampment, from, from their work in activism. And when he was grabbed, his wife reached out to their member of Congress, which is what you do. She's an American citizen. She called her member of Congress and he would, he would not. He in office just wouldn't respond, did nothing. And so she eventually got AOC and other members of the New York congressional delegation to help kind of make some noise about it, and it, and it was, you know, immediately a very national story. And it, it, it cuts to the problem that espionage has there, which is that the old school kind of corrupt machine politics worked when the machine would at least be responsive to constituents. Like, okay, we know that these guys are on the, on the take. We know they're taking Pride and other friends with the Realtors, real estate lobby and everybody else. But if I have a problem, you know, if I could have a problem at work, if I, if I have a problem with the city, I can call the, I can call my member of Congress and they have a constituent service operation that is going to be well oiled and that, that is going to care because then when it's time to vote, we're going to come out and we're going to keep electing these guys even though we think that they're corrupt. Like that's, that's the machine in the best case. But because he was so dependent on APAC support, he couldn't do that part of the constituent service for this very famous constituent. And it became then this proxy for, for everything else about him. And it really gave her the kind of rationale the case, like, why are you running? Like, oh, well, my friend got arrested in the district and he didn't care. And people like, oh, okay, that's, that's legit reason to run. Yeah. And I actually, maybe we could roll this. I saw Espail on Lenox Avenue, Malcolm X Avenue yesterday outside of Harlem Hospital. And I kind of put this to him. We can roll this. You wouldn't have had a race at all.
Krystal Ball
No, because everyone's right.
Ryan Grim
It's the run. Everyone has the right to run. And I really actually do believe, and maybe it's not just, but I do believe it's the case that if six months ago, if he had taken Mahmoud Khalil's wife's calls, just done the bare minimum to help her and said, you know what? I'm not taking AIPAC support anymore. Like I took it in the past, I regret it. I don't like what they've done in Gaza. I'm not taking APAC support anymore because this is a genocide that's been carried out. Where does a challenger have any opening whatsoever to take him on? I, I don't see it. And I think he would have cruised to reelection last night.
Krystal Ball
Well, and Valerie Fushi sort of tested that case. You know, she had a close call, she changed her views, repudiated aipac and she hung on.
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Krystal Ball
You know, the Other, let's talk a little. So this actually Nita Llama was there last night. Oh really?
Ryan Grim
Yeah, yeah, she didn't want to miss it. She blew up from North Carolina.
Krystal Ball
That's awesome. This was my favorite tweet from last night with regard to Dariel is the answer from edinjamentum. He said taking out the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus with a self described communist 32 year old PhD student who tweeted, Fuck, Kamala Harris is beyond insane. DEFCON One moment for the Democratic establishment. And you know, similarly Claire Valdez, I feel like we sort of glossed over her a bit, but she won easily, like it was 20 plus points. And she beat the sitting Brooklyn borough president who by the way is progressive in many regards. And so when you ask yourself, okay, well, how important was Israel in all of this? He had all the unions, Working Families Party, Nydia Velasquez, this power base, this Brooklyn borough president, which coveted position, et cetera, and it wasn't close. He got blown out. You have to look at that and say there were, there were two major differences. Well, three, I would say, number one, DSA organizing, number two, Zoran Mamdani and number three, you know, AIPAC in Israel.
Ryan Grim
And I think you don't get the first two without, without the third.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, of course. Yeah, yeah.
Ryan Grim
And when we had him on the, the show and he is, you know, he has a record. He kicked ICE out of Rikers. He's, he has, he took on the machine himself in Brooklyn. He's a, he's a progressive up and down the board, except for the fact that he refused to take a stand on Israel and its genocide until he ran for office. And so people, it's, people think, well, your people are too obsessed with Israel. That's not what it is. What it is is that that tells people that he's not willing to fight for them, that he's not, that he's not there when it's going to get hard. And they know that if you're going to take on kind of corporate power, you're going to take on any other power centers, you have to be willing to do the hard things and tell the, tell the powers that be. No, even when it's, and especially when it's difficult for you. And the fact that he didn't do that, I think like that really resonated with people because it, and the fact that he did it, then it's one thing if you don't believe it, but then to do it as you're launching Your campaign just tells people, oh, okay, yes, I like him, he's been great. But he's another politician.
Krystal Ball
Was there Israel lobby money in that race?
Ryan Grim
There was a lot of controversy because this, I think real Fight PAC got in and we know for a fact that about $200,000 of that money was teachers union money. Some other, other union money in this big super pac. Valdez was accusing it of possibly being APAC money. We don't know yet. It, it seems more likely that it's real estate focused money. But so there's no, no evidence yet that they got in because I think APAC understood they, I think they would have preferred Reynoso, obviously Tony's candidate, but they also understood that once Reynoso was in office, if he'd have won, he's gone to them like a Valor Fouche style, like he wasn't gonna, he wasn't coming back.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, the, the politics of the district dictate that if he would want to hold on to that job, he would need to, you know, take those votes and position, reposition himself fully and completely. Let's talk a little bit about Dan Goldman and Brad Lander. Goldman I don't think is as consistent or progressive. He's got some, you know, some corporate centrist in him for sure, more so than Reynoso, but also very clear here that the dividing line was Israel. You know, Brad Lander endorses Mamdani, you know, comes out and I don't know that he would describe himself as an anti Zionist. He's not a DSA member. He's a little bit more to the center than certainly like a Darieliza or a Claire Valdez, but also has made it plain that he opposes the genocide, he opposes these war crimes and human rights violations and you know, wins handily. It was a foregone conclusion basically as soon as they closed the polls, Lander, you know, Lander was able to declare victory. So you know, talk a little bit about the, the dynamics there and why that was such an incredible slam dunk for him in, in, by the way, I think one of the most heavily Jewish districts in the entire country, if not the most heavily Jewish district in the entire country.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, that, that really could have been Goldman's seat for life if he would have been kind of a, even, even a normal Democrat in, in that district. Instead, you know, he decided to make, and he was this hero of the resistance leading the, you know, Trump impeachment. And Trump, Trump won. He's like a real Kind of Resistance 1.0 MSNBC Type Figure who rode that fame to then a divide, you know, a very divided race. If people remember, there was Mondaire Jones, you, Lynn, new very split field. So he kind of squeaked by and never had a huge base of support and was able to win thanks to spending a fortune of his own money. He's a, he's an heir of Levi Strauss, which also. San Francisco's mayor is also a Levi Strauss heir. What's, what's going on with his family. But he instead decided to be this hostile antagonist to, to Mamdani and to all of the protesters against the genocide. Like he became one of these, like the chief spokespeople against that. And I don't think he's still to this day like endorsed Mamdani not in the, definitely not in the primary, not in the general. And he still is kind of fighting with mom Donnie constantly. And I saw somebody floating like, oh, maybe Goldman is now leading, you know, challenger to Momdani in, you know, for re election. It's like, bro, yes, good luck. Absolutely destroyed in his own district, but he's going to be more popular in the, in the rest of the city. But yeah, so that he made that his issue and it did and it blew up. It blew up in his face. You know, the last couple days of the race, the big scandal there was that he went into a coffee shop called Poetica and so his daughter could use the bathroom and so he bought a coffee so she used the bathroom.
Krystal Ball
And later, New York City experience.
Ryan Grim
Yes. Later they realized that that was Dan Goldman. They said, this is, this is blood money, is eight pack money. And they refunded the money and that became a public thing. You know, he said, he talked about, you know, he and his defenders saying this is, you know, anti Semitic. They were quite clear that this was aimed at his support of genocide. And interestingly, I talked to somebody last night who was following espionage around and he said Espeot got thrown out of a bodega when they realized, when the bodega owner learned that espionage was taking APAC money and espionage is not Jewish. Like this is, it's the same thing. Like you're, you're taking APAC money and you're supportive of genocide. We don't want your business. Right. So that, that is a completely separate thing. And I think it's inconvenient for Goldman that he was beaten by a Jewish opponent.
Krystal Ball
Yes.
Ryan Grim
In a landslide.
Krystal Ball
So it was like very, you know, I mean, he's, he's very proud of his Jewish heritage. He Talks a lot about that. It's very clearly central to Brad Lander's identity. And yeah, to your point, because he has a different position and doesn't take AIPAC money, he's not getting thrown out of bodegas or having his money refunded to him after the fact. Because it's not about Dan Goldman being Jewish. It's about the position that he holds and, you know, like running cover for a genocide that people find to be abhorrent and unconscionable.
Ryan Grim
Right, yeah. There's no protected kind of civil rights class of, you know, genocide supporter like that is. That is some, you know, Department of Justice under Trump, certainly they, you know, they tweeted that they're going to try to make a federal case of it,
Krystal Ball
which I do want to say, to Goldman's credit, he came out and said that's we shouldn't do that. Right. He did not support their decision to go in that direction. But at the very same time that you have J.D. vance saying, oh, if everything, if everything's Jew hatred, then nothing is Jew hatred, you have the Trump DOJ acting as if everything is Jew hatred and pursuing federal prosecutions based on, you know, opposition to, to someone supportive. Genocide.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, yeah. But, yeah, so to get beaten that badly, like I said, like, it's the biggest defeat margin wise for a Democrat in I, I can't. I can't remember when, not in my life.
Krystal Ball
I feel like we're going to talk more tomorrow about the fallout from all of this, because I do think there are going to be a whole lot of holy shit moments going on right now of Democratic candidates who bet the way that Dan Goldman bet that, you know, it's always been safe politics to be pro Israel up until the past couple of years. It has always been. That's where the organization has been. That's where, like, it has always been the safe political bet to do effectively the bear hug strategy when it comes to Israel. And in the Democratic Party, that is just no longer the case. And I don't think anyone has described this better than Ta Nehisi Coates, who's like, yeah, because if you aren't willing to stand up against genocide, why would we think you're going to stand up for democracy? Or I would add to that fight on any other issue where it requires standing up to power to, you know, the donor class. And we've got an oligarchy crisis in the country and the world that I think is extraordinarily grave and genuinely existential. If you're not willing to say a genocide's a genocide. We have no chance of you going up against Elon Musk and the burgeoning class of trillionaires. So to me, it makes all the sense in the world that this has become a core litmus test. And then, of course, just the nature of how many horrific, unconscionable, stomach churning images of toddlers being murdered and young babies who are triple amputees. I mean, of course people are gonna look at that with revulsion and say, if you did anything to run cover for this, I don't want anything to do with you. And I don't know how you even call yourself a Democrat and pretend to posture like you care about human rights and morality and democracy. So there's just a. An overwhelming revulsion, too. So the way that most Democrats, the vast majority of Democrats, comported themselves throughout the period of this genocide. The last piece I wanted to play here before we move on to the next topic, is you were able to speak a little bit exclusively to Zoran Mamdani last night where he reflected on what this all means and what voters, what sentiments they were trying to express. You want to set this up a little bit, Ryan?
Zoran Mamdani / Campaign Clips
Yeah.
Ryan Grim
This was Abi Yousef, who's a drop site contributor. So he spoke at the Dariel Issa event and was then on his way out. And so AB was able to grab him for a couple of minutes here. Let's roll.
Zoran Mamdani / Campaign Clips
That this win is incredible. Darielisa began a campaign where she was up against every possible set of odds, and she pulled off a victory that is helping to rewrite politics in our city and in our country. She is someone who brings a clarity, a conscience, and a conviction to a politics that has often been missing those things. And in a city and in a district that has been so desperate for leadership, when it comes to putting working people back at the heart, she will deliver that. And it was an honor to be one part of this incredible campaign. And to see her win alongside Brad Lander, Claire Valdez, and every single one of the state legislative candidates that I had the privilege of supporting, it shows that last June was not an anomaly. It was not an aberration. It was the beginning of a new kind of politics. And I cannot wait for what that next chapter is going to look like.
Krystal Ball
I think supporters, supporters and detractors alike probably agree that, you know, last night shows that there is a new kind of thing that is happening, that Zoran was not a one off, that this is much more of a movement that is Also not just about New York City.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, no. Yes. They're going to have to pay attention to that and credit to AB for doing a better job with his mic than I did with mine. But I'm learning. I'm learning. I'm trying to.
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Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — June 24, 2026 Episode Summary
Episode Title: Zohran Clean Sweep In NYC Elections, Pro Israel Dems Destroyed
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Ryan Grim (co-hosting)
Notable Guests/Clips: Zoran Mamdani, Hasan Piker, Mahmoud Khalil
Date: June 24, 2026
This explosive episode analyzes the "political earthquake" in New York City's Democratic primaries, where Zoran Mamdani's slate of Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) candidates pulled off a stunning sweep—unseating major incumbents, including well-established Democrats supported by powerful institutions and unions. The episode digs into why these victories happened, the pivotal role of Genocide/pro-Palestine politics in the Democratic electorate, and what the rise of organized left politics means nationally, all with exclusive ground-level reporting and interviews from the campaigns.
Krystal Ball opens by situating the night as a “political earthquake” ([02:25]). Zoran Mamdani’s candidates swept federal and state races, defeating entrenched Democratic power brokers.
Memorable moment: Playful rebranding of NY-7 as the "commie corridor," and the mass celebration at Claire Valdez's victory party ([05:08]).
“Truly, truly an extraordinary political night. Ryan Grim was there for the whole thing. He got lots of exclusive interviews.”
— Krystal Ball ([02:25])
Krystal welcomes Ryan Grim in NYC. They joke about the "commie takeover" and Grim describes the “bender” atmosphere as NYC’s left celebrates all-night ([15:47]).
Notable Quote:
"After Mamdani endorsed, everybody they spoke to was like, oh yeah, that’s... she's the one that Mamdani is supporting. I'm supporting her."
— Ryan Grim ([16:40])
Racist attacks and red-baiting backfire dramatically, especially in Chevalier’s diverse district. Attacks based on her ethnicity and the infamous “F— Kamala Harris” tweet failed to turn voters.
Notable Quote:
“They thought that combination [racist attacks] would be enough for the kind of older voters… to turn them off. But it didn’t… It has to really, I think, shake things up for the Democratic Party bosses.”
— Ryan Grim ([18:41])
The hosts analyze the significant impact of progressive streamer/influencer Hasan Piker, who orchestrated massive phonebanking and became, against the wishes of centrists, an unlikely campaign litmus test.
Notable Quote:
“Talk about strategies that completely backfired. I think they successfully did, in a way, make him a litmus test. But for a Democratic base that is overwhelmingly now disgusted with the genocide... in association with Hasan Piker became a symbol of, you’re on the good side of this issue.”
— Krystal Ball ([23:14])
“Hey, after tonight, my price went up. You have to be a democratic socialist if you want some of this fucking shine. Sorry.”
— Hasan Piker ([26:06])
“They are the predominant force in New York City politics at this point. And just... eight years ago... they've become not just a player, but dominant.”
— Ryan Grim ([29:32])
Krystal notes the “extraordinary” decision of AOC to abstain from endorsing most insurgent races—even where she shared core values (e.g., Brad Lander’s race)—in contrast to Mamdani’s bold risk-taking.
Notable Quote:
“While Zoron is rightfully being recognized as like this kingmaker now... it’s very easy to imagine her being the one that’s getting all the credit now... And yet she's decided de facto to effectively be an incumbent protector...”
— Krystal Ball ([30:15])
“The difference in ruthlessness between her and Mamdani is interesting there...”
— Ryan Grim ([33:42])
Media attacks branding DSA as a party only for “young white professionals” are debunked by victories in diverse, working-class districts—especially Queens and Harlem.
Notable Quote:
“DSA has been objectively, if you count the races that they've won... the most successful, actually, in Queens, which is... maybe the most diverse kind of urban area in the world.”
— Ryan Grim ([37:44])
The core dividing line in these races is now Israel. The anti-genocide/Pro-Palestine stance is a requirement for base support; failure or ambiguity is now politically fatal.
“There are consequences of abandoning, abandoning your communities. There are consequences of supporting a genocidal state.”
— Mahmoud Khalil ([48:17])
“If you aren’t willing to stand up against genocide, why would we think you’re going to stand up for democracy?”
— Krystal Ball ([61:02], referencing Ta-Nehisi Coates)
Zoran Mamdani declares the victories herald “a new kind of politics”—not aberration, but the beginning of a multi-racial, working-class, left electoral movement.
Notable Quote:
“It was not an aberration. It was the beginning of a new kind of politics. And I cannot wait for what that next chapter is going to look like.”
— Zoran Mamdani ([63:25])
This summary preserves the bold, unfiltered analysis and tone of Krystal Ball and Ryan Grim, alongside rich context for listeners who want the bottom line on NYC's electoral upheaval, new left-wing power centers, and what these trends presage for U.S. politics beyond 2026.