← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
6/26/25: Cuomo Bends Knee To Zohran, Wall St Panics Over NYC Election, Scott Horton On Iran Strike Intel
01:09:17
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast.
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Sagar Enjeti
And here.
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- [01:35]
Sagar Enjeti
Guarantee hey guys, Sagar and Kristal here.
- [01:39]
Krystal Ball
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:46]
Sagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [01:52]
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:03]
Sagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning everybody. Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
- [02:14]
Krystal Ball
Indeed we do. As you guys probably already know, Zoran Mandani has shocked the establishment in New York City and nationwide. So we have some updates for you there, including Andrew Cuomo is dropping his bid. So what does this mean for the general election? And also the big freak out is on. We got the Republican freak out. We got the business CNBC freak out. We got the Democratic establishment freak out. And I'm also really excited to get Sager's take on the whole thing and what it all means. Also, lots of news continuing to unfold with regard to Iran. The great Scott Horton is going to join us to break the latest down. The ayatollah has emerged with a message. There's actually a press conference going on today with Pete Hegseth as the Trump administration continues to insist that those strikes were successful in obliterating Iran's nuclear program. So we will get all of those details. Also, a couple of interesting media appearances. One from Joy Reid, who dropped some real truth bombs on cnn. I guess now that she's unshackled from msnbc. She is. It's interesting to watch her go. So we'll play that. And we also had a great Candace Owens clip from Piers Morgan that we will break down as well. In addition, we want to keep our eye on the fact that the one big beautiful bill is moving. President Trump is pushing for this to be passed rapidly in spite of the fact that some Republican leaders are expressing deep concern about the political fallout of the Medicaid cuts. Also have a couple of additional interesting media segments. So Bernie Sanders joined Joe Rogan, got some clips from that. And another Joe Rogan linked segment we're gonna do here. So disgraced men's lifestyle influencer Liver King was just arrested for making terroristic threats against Joe Rogan. So we'll break down all of that for you. It's just a wild story. He has clearly had a complete mental break at this point.
- [03:56]
Sagar Enjeti
Absolutely. And for those asking what the tie in is is because this show actually was featured in the Liver King Netflix doc at the end. And so we have to bring things even more full circle by continuing our coverage of the situation. Also, it's been a really very serious two weeks. So, you know, let's do something nice.
- [04:13]
Krystal Ball
Let's lighten it up a little. Terrible.
- [04:15]
Sagar Enjeti
Let's lighten it up a little bit. But I mean, it's always fun to see an influencer fall from Grayson in handcuffs. I'm sorry. I've been waiting for it.
- [04:23]
Krystal Ball
I mean, especially this guy is complete and total shock.
- [04:25]
Sagar Enjeti
He's a total con artist.
- [04:26]
Krystal Ball
But yeah, if you guys haven't watched, I watched the Netflix documentary on Liver King last night with Kyle and I knew your monologue was in it, but it really was like the whole thing built.
- [04:36]
Sagar Enjeti
I have not watched it.
- [04:36]
Krystal Ball
Nintendo. I've only heard this one monologue is like the, you know, the conclusion that wraps the whole thing up is pretty cool.
- [04:43]
Sagar Enjeti
As you guys, you know, that's why you guys watch the show. You're ahead of the curve.
- [04:46]
Krystal Ball
There you go.
- [04:47]
Sagar Enjeti
We were one of the only news channels that actually covered it at that time. And no, it wasn't for clicks. I had been fascinated by the story. It is amazing for quite a long time. All right, let's get to Zoran. You guys did a great job of covering all the election results live, but a lot has happened since then, so.
- [04:59]
Krystal Ball
Let'S get to it. Yeah, indeed. So to back up, we'll start with Zoran Mamdani. His victory speech, just to get a flavor of what he was talking about as he clinched the Democratic primary victory. Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of that.
- [05:10]
Zoran Mamdani
Tonight we made history. In the words of Nelson Mandela, it always seems impossible until it is done. And I want to thank Brad Lander. Together we have shown the power of the politics of the future. As FDR said, democracy has disappeared in several other great nations, not because the people disliked democracy, but because they had grown tired of unemployment and insecurity, of seeing their children hungry while they sat helpless in the face of government confusion and weakness. In desperation, they chose to sacrifice liberty in the hope of getting something to eat. New York. If we have made one thing clear over these past months, it is that we need not choose between the two. We can be free and we can be fed. We can demand what we deserve. And together we have built a movement where everyday New Yorkers recognize themselves in our vision of democracy.
- [06:49]
Krystal Ball
So you get a little taste there of the talent and the rhetoric that helped to lead to this completely shocking, pretty overwhelming success here for Zoran. Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen in terms of the coalition that he built because there are some really interesting numbers here and some really interesting things to glean. You really have to kind of discard some of your. The expectation was this would be heavily leaning on white college educated and Asian college educated voters. The way he was able to win with such stunning, overwhelming force and in the first round, which people didn't really expect. I mean, technically it hasn't been called yet. It's got to go to ranked choice voting. But Cuomo's already conceded he did best in racially mixed precincts. Here Cuomo did best in precincts which were either heavily white or heavily black. So in the more mixed areas of the city, that is where Mamdani did the best. Let's go ahead and put the next piece up on the screen here about the class coalition he was able to build. And Sagra, this was, to me, some of the most fascinating breakdowns that we saw were in terms of the class demographics that made up Mamdani's base. So Cuomo did the best among the very poor and among the very rich. So billionaire class, all in for Cuomo. Mamdani was strongest among the sort of broad middle. So the working class and middle class in New York City. And keep in mind, in New York City, because it is so expensive, the middle class is a little bit higher income than what it would be considered nationwide. But that's really where he had his strength. And then we don't have these numbers. But there was also, obviously a massive generational divide. And that was perhaps the most significant divide in this entire race is Mamdani was so strong with young voters and did something that, you know, the Bernie campaign promised to do, that leftist campaigns often promise to do, which is to shift the demographics of the people who actually turn out. It appears that Zorin, in addition to winning groups that he wasn't necessarily expected to, and building inroads into groups he wasn't expected to, he also did change the composition of the electorate where it was much younger than, you know, typical New York City mayoral elections ultimately are. And that's how he's able to secure the state.
- [08:59]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, it's very interesting. There's a lot of, oh, he's the real Canada of the rich and he's a candidate of the poor. Again, I would remind somebody that if you make a hundred, this is gonna sound crazy for people who are in Alabama. If you make 100 grand in Manhattan, you're basically rent poor. You know, it's like you're effectively like.
- [09:14]
Krystal Ball
Paycheck to paycheck, you're working class.
- [09:16]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah. No, look, again, I know this sounds nuts to everybody else who lives, but if you've ever lived in New York, I mean, I'm serious, like 100 grand. And you have to think about state, local, and federal, what you're left home with, and then what the average rent is for, even a one or a two bedroom apartment. Good luck to you being able to even go to eat like a couple of times. So that's my first kind of thing. But also at the same time, I do find the quibbling really annoying because you can kind of find a narrative wherever it is. Like Cuomo won, what is it, the majority of black voters. And there was a big like racial split. Mamdani did very well in a lot of these mixed districts. At the end of the day, I don't think it really matters all that much. All the only thing it means is winning the primary. And we will also find out during the general election what his general broad appeal is. But also, but look, I mean all of this like working class, non working, it's like guys, the only thing that matters is winning. And Donald Trump, yes, he won many working class voters, Latino voters, et cetera. He won a lot of rich people too, like middle class as well. In fact, middle class suburbanites. If they hadn't voted for Trump, he would not have won the popular vote election. Right. So just taking the coalition for what it is, I mean, look, it's not a surprise like the Democratic Party broadly appeals to people who are college educated. If you've been watching this show for the last five years, then you would know that like having a four year bachelor college degree is one of the major signs of being liberal. It just is what it is. And so when you put that into a city like New York with one, I mean, I can't even imagine like the median income I believe on the island of Manhattan is $102,000 per year. That's a median income. And then actually if you restrict it and you like leave out, I think some parts of above a certain street, it skyrockets even higher. Well, what do you think they all do? They're all like highly college educated. Of course, they're Democratic voters. So yeah, I mean we can make quite a bit of this whole like working class, black or whatever. But like to me the only thing that matters is winning and the guy won. So it doesn't really matter. Like at the end of the day, how he will perform in the general election is of course an open question. We have the news about Andrew Cuomo. Is he officially not running? That's what it was. A bit confusing.
- [11:25]
Krystal Ball
Let's put a four up on the screen.
- [11:26]
Sagar Enjeti
Let's put it up there.
- [11:27]
Krystal Ball
So just to explain, in New York there are multiple ballot lines and Andrew Cuomo already was going to be on one of the non Democratic Party ballot lines for the fall. So the expectation very much was that if he lost in the Democratic primary, he would continue on to the fall. But that expectation was built at a time when it was expected either he would win or that it would Be very close. It ends up not being close. In fact, the margin of victory in the first round ranked choice vote is going to only be. It's only going to grow when they actually factor in ranked choice vote because the third place candidate, Brad Lander cross endorsed Mamdani and his campaign told us that some 80 to 90% of Brad Lander votes are ultimately going to end up with Mamdani. So in the wake of that crushing defeat, humiliating, I mean, you can't even put words to it, how humiliating this is for Andrew Cuomo. Then it goes, maybe he's not gonna be able to continue. And in fact, it looks like according to sources within the Cuomo camp, he is going to drop his New York City mayoral bid in New York. Post's phrasing here after blistering primary defeat to Zoran Mamdani. And I think probably one of the things that happened here, put a 4B up on the screen, is that a lot of his donors started to pull the plug. They're like, you know what, dude? You got your ass kicked by a 33 year old who came out Democratic socialist Muslim who came out of nowhere from 1% of the vote and he beat you. And we threw $26 million in super PAC ads against this guy and you got your butt kicked. So listen to this though, this is remarkable. One of these big donors says, you know what, I was just back in Cuomo, not because I liked the guy, but because I thought he was gonna win and he's transactional and so I needed to make my corrupt deal. Specifically, he says, this is Mark Gordon, that he's now likely to back Mamdani. That's because of the support Mamdani got from Brad Lander, who Gordon said he ra first quote. I feel like people misunderstood my 250k for Cuomo for real enthusiasm. It was basically, oh, looks like Cuomo's coming back. We don't want to be shut out. Let's try and get on his good side. That's kind of how things work with Cuomo. It's sad political pragmatism. I wish we lived in a world where those sorts of things were not useful things to do. The other thing I noted, Sager, is that Bill Clinton, who had endorsed Andrew Cuomo and even recorded a robocall for him and was, I guess, his highest profile endorsement, he also came out and said and was wishing Zoron good luck in November. So that was an indication to me as well. But this is the thing for Cuomo too. Not only did you get humiliatingly defeated. Not only did you run one of the most piss poor campaigns that all the New York experts say they've basically ever seen anyone run, but people hate him. He's a terrible person. And anyone who has an opportunity to stick a knife in this guy is going to because he is a tremendous asshole. Like, this is not breaking news. Everyone knows this about him. And so you hear the way this donor talks about him. He's like, yeah, I didn't wanna get punished for not contributing to his campaign. I wanted to be able to make whatever corrupt business deals and do my transactional politics thing. That's what my 250k investment here was. It's not because I like the guy. So that's the other piece is because he's such an asshole, when people have the opportunity to stick the knife in, some of them are gonna do it.
- [14:57]
Sagar Enjeti
Absolutely. It's also just such a massive referendum here on the Democratic establishment. CNN's Harry Hampton did a good job of breaking some of this down. Let's play a six, please just explain it.
- [15:07]
Ad
This was a political earthquake that should have the Democratic establishment running scared. What are we talking about here? Well, New York City primary upsets like Mandani's, this is truly one for the record books. There are really only two that I could think of that are like this. And that was back in 89 for mayor when David Dinkins won over third three term mayor Ed Koch. Koch was running for a fourth term. The voters said, uh, there was big turnout then, just like there was big turnout last night. And of course more recently. If you want to take a look at a national picture, think back to 2018, New York's 14th Democratic primary going for Congress when AOC beat House caucus Chair Joe Crowley. This to me is very much like that. Energizing young voters, energizing voters on the left and providing what truly was a historic night. You know, you think about Democratic establishment, you think about Democratic Party leaders. Pretty much all of them were behind Andrew Cuomo. But the bottom line is the Democratic base is fed up, done with the Democratic establishment. This is true in New York, it's true nationally. Democrats who say their party leaders should be replaced. Look at this. This is a recent poll from Reuters hypso. 62% of Democrats nationally say their party leaders should be replaced. Look, Democrats who identify as Liberal nationally in 1994 is 25%. You go to 2004, 33%, 2014, 43%. Now the majority of Democrats nationally identify as liberal.
- [16:29]
Sagar Enjeti
Take it to the bank. I Think he's obviously correct. I mean, this is. We've been talking about Democratic Tea Party. Like, this is what it is. This is the Eric cantor loss in 2014. People being like, oh, shit, you know, I mean, Eric Cantor famously spent more at the Capitol Grill, which steakhouse here in Washington, on stakes than his opponent, Dave Brat spent on the entire campaign. Very similar, you know, even in the district, he wasn't even there.
- [16:53]
Krystal Ball
He wasn't here that he lost. Dave Bratt.
- [16:56]
Sagar Enjeti
This is all old Washington lore, but it's important because you can just see that these stories are as old as time. And, yeah, look, I mean, we haven't even really talked about. We talked a lot about the Zoran campaign. He ran a very effective campaign. Oh, yeah, it was preposterous to make this thing whole about Israel. In fact, that's probably my best takeaway from this, is AIPAC taking the biggest L of all time, doing second best amongst Jewish voters. But more importantly, that the psyops don't work anymore. A lot of people are also waking up to it. We can talk a little bit here about the establishment reaction, but there's even a split now, like, on the right of people who are like, oh, he's Muslim. And others, even Matt Gaetz tweeting out Zoran's video about make halal eight bucks again. And people are like, yeah, I wonder why this one? You know, it's. Again, you know, if you've never lived in New York, if you've never been to New York City, like, the cost of living and inflation of literally everything is insane. Like, it's insane even. I don't even know in the last 10 years, every time I go back, I'm like, what? What now? I don't drink anymore. I was at a bar recently, and they were like, oh, $21. I heard somebody order a $22 cocktail, and I was like, oh, what is that? It must be like some fancy mart. They're like, dude, this is like, well, vodka. I was like, what? I was like, what has happened here? But that's. That's reality. That's life from food to halal. And just talking about that is very important. So if we want, we can move on to that and talk about some of the real.
- [18:17]
Krystal Ball
Well, just one, two quick things. So first of all, all the questions about Israel actually allowed Zoran to position himself as the America first or New York first candidate. Where everyone else, oh, I'm going to Israel. Go to Ukraine, whatever. Zoran, will you pledge to go to Israel? And he's like, I'm gonna be here in New York delivering for New Yorkers. Oh, lo and behold, that's actually pretty compelling message when they're trying to pin you down. Anti Semite. And, you know, he also had a fantastic answer to, does Israel have a right to exist as a Jewish state? And he says, as a state with equal rights. What, you're against equal rights? That sounds to me like you're the one who needs to be explaining your worldview if that's where you are. So he handled all of that beautifully, and I think it actually turned into an asset for him, which in, you know, the city of New York, the highest Jewish population in the entire country, you know, incredibly significant vote, and he did quite well among Jewish voters. I haven't seen the official numbers of whether he won Jewish voters or Cuomo won Jewish voters, but he did very well among Jewish voters. So forget about your caricature ish idea that every Jewish person out there is hardcore committed to Netanyahu's genocide. I mean, it's preposterous. That's actually racist and anti Semitic. So that's number one. Number two, the thing that I said on election night, and of course it remains to be seen, is this could actually be the moment that a lot of us thought the AOC moment was. And the reason for it, it is because of those numbers that Harry Anton put up where the Democratic base no longer is in league and in love with the Democratic establishment. In fact, they are disgusted with them. And so that is what has changed the possibilities and created this particular landscape. So we'll see how all this plays out. But I guarantee you there are going to be more primary challenges. People are going to see this. They're going to be inspired. 2028 is going to be very interesting because you no longer have the Democratic base just willing to go wherever the elite Democratic establishment tells them to go. That represents an extraordinary break of a sort that we have not seen in the Democratic Party in my lifetime. So that's number one. Number two, we can put. Go ahead and just roll through these, Eric. We've got Bill Clinton and Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries weighing in. Hakeem Jeffries and Schumer say congratulations, effectively, and they're gonna meet, compete with him, but they still haven't said they're endorsing him for the fall. This is your Democratic nominee in the city that, you know, Schumer's obviously statewide, but Hakeem Jeffries, you know, represents a district inside of New York City. And you can't even say, like, good luck in the fall. We're behind you. This is your Democratic nominee. So to me, that's pathetic. But the fact that they even put out anything that was positive, I guess, is noteworthy. And then here's Bill Clinton. This was the one I found most noteworthy because he actually says, I'm wishing you success in November. And as I said before, he had previously been behind Cuomo. So Clinton seems to be saying, all right, I'm with you now for the fall, for whatever that's worth. I mean, as a sort of leader in the Democratic Party, Jerry Nadler also very significant in terms of the New York congressional delegation. Jerry Nadler also happens to be Jewish, so this is important, too. And he says that Zoron's victory is a seismic election that I can only compare to Barack Obama's in 2008. He also concludes by saying, I've spoken to him today about his commitment to fighting anti Semitism. We will work with all New Yorkers to fight against all bigotry and hate. So having the direct support of Jerry Nadler, who's considered the dean of the New York congressional delegation, also significant. So just quickly, before we move on to the CNBC meltdown and the Republican meltdown and all of that sort of stuff, which will be fun to get into, what's going to happen now is they'll wrap up the ranked choice voting allocations. Oran's going to win. He'll win by a wider margin than the numbers even show right now. And then it's on to the general election. Cuomo, apparently, according to those sources, if they're to believe, is going to drop. Eric Adams, however, is still in. And then you have Curtis Sliwa, who is the sort of kooky Republican nominee, is also in. So these people that we're gonna talk about, Bill Ackman and these sorts who are desperate for anybody but Zoron, are probably going to have to rally around Eric Adams. Adams, who is this hilarious idiot and cartoonishly corrupt, by the way. And you remember he appeared to have made some corrupt deal with the Trump administration to have his charges against him dropped. But that's kind of their last best hope. And Eric Adams is polling pathetically in the city of New York because he was a terrible mayor, and as I just mentioned, cartoonishly corrupt. The number of his aides who had to resign or were indicted over, you know, various scandals is. I lost count at some point. So he's not exactly the, you know, the strongest person that you would. Would like to see if you're trying to stop Zoron, and especially with the amount of momentum that he has at this time. So listen, they're going to throw everything they can at him between now and fall. I have no idea what sort of dirty tricks they're going to pull, but I do think he's in a fairly strong position here, especially with Cuomo now stepping aside. Because Cuomo, in spite of also being scandal ridden and obviously people not having particularly favorable impression of him, Cuomo is still a big name in New York. You know, Cuomo is, it's still a dynasty. He, you know, had all this establishment backing behind him and so to have him out, I think Eric Adams is an even weaker there's no doubt about it, Eric Adams is an even weaker candidate than Andrew Cuomo was at this point.
- [23:49]
Scott Horton
And here we have a specimen from the early 2000s, a legacy investing platform. Please don't touch the exhibit folks. It could crash. Ready to step out of the Financial history museum@public.com you can invest in almost everything, stocks, bonds, options and more. You could even put your cash to work at an industry leading 4.1% APY. Leave your clunky, outdated platform behind. Go to public.com and fund your account in five minutes or less. Paid for by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Full disclosures at public.com disclosures future health.
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- [26:19]
Sagar Enjeti
So let's get to the establishment. Freak out. It's been, it's been hilarious to watch cnbc, first of all, giving us some of the best. Talking about how the rich are going to get shot in the streets of New York. Let's take a listen.
- [26:30]
Ad
Have you seen what Batman is up against in Gotham and what the guy running for mayor is up against? That's what it reminds me of.
- [26:39]
Krystal Ball
They're taking Wall Streeters and making them walk out onto the ice in the.
- [26:43]
Ad
East river, as in hope.
- [26:45]
Krystal Ball
And then they fall through.
- [26:46]
Ad
I mean, there is a class warfare that's going.
- [26:50]
Sagar Enjeti
So what's happened here?
- [26:51]
Ad
I think the rich type.
- [26:53]
It is not the closing of a steakhouse that David Zaslav likes to. You like to go to. You and I have had dinner there a few times.
- [27:01]
Yes. And you and I are going to recreate.
- [27:04]
The rent's too high.
- [27:05]
You know what?
- [27:06]
The new mayor potentially of New York is going to freeze the rent and everybody eats for free so they don't have to worry.
- [27:12]
Sagar Enjeti
Really.
- [27:12]
Ad
Yeah, but how about the rich? No, no.
- [27:15]
Sagar Enjeti
Well shot.
- [27:16]
Ad
Yes.
- [27:17]
They get taken.
- [27:18]
Scott Horton
Yes, they get.
- [27:20]
Ad
We have to go 23. We have to leave now. Everybody else. There he is.
- [27:24]
Sagar Enjeti
Mom.
- [27:24]
Ad
Donnie. Maybe he's more winning the Democratic primary for mayor and potentially successor of Eric Adams. That said, there's still a general election to come here in New York, by the way. You know, of course we're here. We talk about it. But we are talking about a $2 trillion economy.
- [27:40]
Yeah, it is.
- [27:41]
You know, he wants to get the rents down. One good way to do it is stop all business and drive everybody out. That'll bring the rents down.
- [27:47]
That's a very good point.
- [27:48]
Sagar Enjeti
Right in Jersey, which is pretty funny. I mean, look, I mean this, this gets to again some of my right wing annoyance of it as if New York is functioning fine. And I talked about this last time about all these billionaire people who are going to leave. The city has become a playground for the rich. Anybody who has visited Manhattan in particular can tell you this. It's not a good way to live and sustain a multi million population. Part of the reason why people are turning against it as I just referenced. Let's think about this. If you grew up like I did in the 90s and someone was gonna tell you you're gonna make 150 grand a year, be like, man, I'm gonna be a baller, show up in New York. It's like, good luck buddy, you're gonna be waiting at number 19 in the resi Q trying to get into the 50th best restaura. And look, I know this sounds preposterous, but a lot of people who live there, they live for this stuff and it creates like a class anxiety kind of. So what you really see is that basically unless you make less than a quarter million dollars, I don't think you're living a very easy life in the city of New York. And that's part of the issue is that a lot of it is basically like rolled up to the very top. I also think a huge problem with America's cities is that they have become playgrounds not just for the American rich, but for the global rich. Again, same thing. If you walk around, if you're walking around Soho or any of these other people, half the people are. They're like rich people from Russia, Senegal, wherever the entire world's population converges on Manhattan to basically buy shit and to stay at fancy hotels and so.
- [29:15]
Krystal Ball
And to money launder, by the way.
- [29:16]
Sagar Enjeti
And to money launder, exactly. So it just becomes this thing on top of everything where, you know, the guy who wants to eat halal and just like live and go to work is just basically priced out of everything slowly and slowly and being pushed further out. And then of course you have people who have lived in the city for generations where the same thing is happening. So it's really an economic story and it's one that Bloomberg really doubled down on. I mean, before that it was not thought of as explicitly the playground for the rich of the entire global elite. There were pockets of that, but I don't think that was the actual identity and story of the city. But that's what it's become. So it's not a surprise. To me that you have a rise up against it. I mean, there's a Peter Thiel email which has been going around and it's really funny and it's like, like, hey guys, like if you have. He's like, millennials turn towards socialism, he's like, I'm opposed to socialism. But when you live in a society with high levels of student debt and housing unaffordability, it will not be shocking that they will have less stake in the system and choose something new. There you go. It's not complicated to me literally at all.
- [30:15]
Krystal Ball
I think we also have to just like level set about the radicalism of the policies that he's proposing. I mean, you've got these CNBC guys. It reminds me so much of Chris Matthews talking about how they're gonna like take him in Central park and shoot him if Bernie Sanders gets very, you know, same vibe. We're talking about free buses, we're talking about five government run grocery stores. I mean, this is not like wild stuff. In fact, the bus thing polls at like 70 or 80% in the city of New York. That's what they consider to be so radical and that they're completely panicking over. So, you know, I think it's important too to keep in mind that if you floated these policies in many cities worldwide, this would be like just very normal small ball kind of stuff. When we talk about freeze the rent, this is just on apartments that are already rent stabilized. This is a policy that's put in place in the past, for example, under Bill de Blasio. So it's really nothing that crazy. Donald Trump has now weighed in. Not his finest post, I have to say. And you know, we all get credit for sure his posting abilities, but this was not his best work. Let's put this up on the screen from Trump. He said it's finally happened. The Democrats have crossed the line. Zoran Mandani, a 100% communist lunatic, has just won the Dem primaries on his way to becoming mayor. We've had radical lefties before, but this is getting a little ridiculous. He looks terrible, his voice is grating. He's not very smart. He's got AOC plus three. That's what he calls a squad. Dummies all backing him. And even our great Palestinian Senator Cryon, Chuck Schumer is groveling over him. Yes, this is a big moment in the history of our country. I mean, to me, not only not his best work, obviously the consensus is that Zoron does not in fact look terrible, but to me it just Oozes with envy. Like I think for Trump to see this guy who's capturing all this attention and the city that Trump loves and made his name in and where he always wanted to be accepted by everyone and beloved by everyone. That's what I take out of this.
- [32:17]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, I thought it was more like a Fox News boomer reaction. They're going. They're obsessed with Zoro.
- [32:21]
Krystal Ball
Absolutely over there. Not even a good nickname though. Come on.
- [32:24]
Sagar Enjeti
I was gonna say it's not a good nickn. It's just like objectively untrue. In fact, something I like about Zoran is that he does wear a suit and he is relatively clean cut. And his entire campaign basically conducted either in shirt sleeves and a tie and. Or a suit everywhere that he goes. Let that be a lesson, dirtbag Democrats who look like shit all the time. Look, shout out to John Fetterman. The most successful one now today is who is Zoran Mamdani. So you should take that away. I will say I do think that the reaction on the right is very interesting. Cause there's a low IQ and a high IQ version. So we're going to show you some of the lower IQ stuff. Let's put B3, please, up on the screen so people can take a look. We've got Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeting out a photo of the Statue of Liberty in a burk or actually no, that's isn't. What's the word? It's not a burqa niqab. I think that's what it technically is. Let's go to the next one. So just continue to show people. We've got Laura Loomer. There will be another 9, 11 in New York City. Zoran Mamdani will be to blame. What else have we got here? Do we have anything else? You did it. You finally did it, you maniacs. You blew it up. Photo from the movie showing the Statue of Liberty there crushed on the beach. Let's continue, shall we? Shall we continue? Bill Ackman says, I have a great idea on New York City and I will share it again soon. His idea, by the way, is a write in campaign. Genius. Bill, you know Bill.
- [33:44]
Krystal Ball
Oh, is that what they're doing?
- [33:45]
Sagar Enjeti
That's what he said. So hey, Bill, here's my idea. Spend as much of your fortune as humanly possible. We could not wish you more success.
- [33:53]
Krystal Ball
Who are they writing in though?
- [33:54]
Sagar Enjeti
He has a pick. The person. That's the best part. He just says he's gonna fund a writing campaign. Let's continue. There's one more here that we've got for people. Yeah, as he says, we're looking into legal issues concerning potential for another candidate. That was his little idea. But you know, the thing is about it, and I guess, you know, this is the curse of like having knowledge is like, guys, Zoran Mamdani is a Shia Indian Muslim and I found out his mother directed Kama Sutra. So I would venture to say that the majority of the Hindu population in the United states is about 10 times more conservative than Soran Mandani. She a Muslim whose mom directed Kama Sutra. Just so we're all clear, in terms.
- [34:35]
Krystal Ball
Of zero indication that he's like particularly religious in any way.
- [34:39]
Sagar Enjeti
He seems like a shit lib to me, to be honest, in terms of his own personal politics. Whatever. Fine with me. But my point is that there's like this. The way that they're talking about this seems like it's 2002 all over again. But I mean, look, I understand, I guess it works if you live in Alabama or whatever. But I think what really the takeaway should be is about the effective combatants of the attacks that have been launched. And ultimately the stuff about socialism and AIPAC just fell flat. I mean, I get it. It probably feels really nice if you live in Pennsylvania, rural steel town and you don't know anything about New York and you're watching Fox News every day. But for the people who actually live there, like this stuff just completely fell flat. And I think that should be a real takeaway. In fact, I mean, again, the smarter kind of right wing critiques that I have seen about Zoron, I mean, mostly trace back to like his previous iteration as an identitarian leftist. Now I would say that actually shows some of his political strength. He probably ran one of the most post woke campaigns in modern left history. I would say, like, you know, I have not seen a lot of identitarianism from him. A lot of his 2020 tweets, I get it, it was cringe, but man mostly talked about affordability. Mostly was like focusing in on issues that were important to like the Democratic base, like capital D. And then also driving people out and hammering home the message of we want to make this a city that is easier to live in. That's a good campaign. I mean, I'm sorry, that just is. That is the takeaway for me. And so, so yeah, to watch like the way that they're trying to make him into a lightning rod. And I think this will be interesting for Zoron because he really. Guys like him like with aoc, you know, you get elected on a great promise. But now he's on the phone with Chuck Schumer. He's on the phone with Kathy Hochul. And listen, no matter what, New York is one of the richest cities on the planet. Like, you're gonna be dining with billionaires and having all these people in your offices, and people are gonna be lighting your. Your phone up. And you're gonna be part of the Democratic establishment now, even if you are technically oppositional. And you have a choice. Right? And so that actually will be his biggest test, is not just governance, but in how he handles himself now as the official Democratic nominee and how that works. Has a lightning rod for what he'll turn himself into and what issues he chooses to fight on. That'll be the most interesting for me to watch. Cause he could go the AOC route.
- [37:07]
Krystal Ball
He demonstrated a lot of pragmatism and coalition building in his campaign. I mean, the Brad Lander cross endorsement was genuinely huge. Brad Lander is the highest Jewish elected official in the city of New York. So having him vouch for Zoron and them cross endorsing, like, rank him first and me second. Massively impactful. And Lander Ryan described him as like the Elizabeth Warren of New York City. So you can imagine alternative universe where Warren, instead of like accusing Bernie of being secretly sexually, where they're sort of in a coalition together now, Ranked choice voting encourages those sorts of partnerships. But not only did he have that Cross endorsement, he also had Michael Blake cross endorsement as well. And he reached out to the, like, abundance people. Went on with Derek Thompson, went on with Tim Miller, who's, you know, more of a, like, centristy kind of a Dem. We had him here on the show when saga was out and really won them over as well. So he has demonstrated the ability both to obviously stayed rock solid in his commitment to Palestine. Rock solid in terms of his core policy proposals that he wanted to focus on, but was also able to be pragmatic and reach out. Just to go back to the Republican critique. First of all, I mean, so many of these are just brazenly Islamophobic and racist. That's number one. Number two, the one that's really driving completely insane is Steven Miller and Charlie Kirk and others. But those are the two that I've seen prominently are claiming that the reason Zoron won is because of so many immigrants in New York. Guys, if only white people had voted, Zorin would have won by more. So, like, at least be accurate. I mean, the Truth of the matter is it really is a coalition between he won white people and Asians by the most. But some of the numbers I saw also had him winning Hispanics and then closing the gap with what the polling was showing with regard to black voters and winning overwhelmingly among young black voters. I mean, it really was a, a multiracial cross ethnic coalition of both native born and immigrants into the city. And so if you're grappling with that, like you're just lying, you are not even, you're not depicting reality whatsoever. And so, you know, with Stephen Miller, like he's got his white nationalist project and so he's using this as propaganda for his campaign. I have a feeling that he probably knows better. But if that's actually the lesson you're learning from this, you're not taking away the reality of what actually happened here. Which to Sagar's point, like Zoran's position was this city has been run for billionaires. And I'm not gonna run it for billionaires. I'm gonna try to run it for your average New Yorker who is really struggling to be able to stay in the city and survive. And it should be no surprise to anyone that that is a message that really resonated and resonated across the city. I mean, he even won places in like Staten island, he was winning like Brighton Beach. I mean, places that people did not expect him to do well. He was able to succeed. So in any case, a lot of the reaction has been unhinged. But you're right, Sagra, that some people on the right, Matt Gaetz was the most noteworthy one to me, actually engaged with the substance of what he was saying and sought to understand what the actual appeal was, not this like insane racist fear mongering that others were engaged in.
- [40:11]
Scott Horton
And here we have a specimen from the early 2000s, a legacy investing platform. Please don't touch the exhibit, folks. It could crash. Ready to step out of the financial history museum? At public.com you can invest in almost everything. Stocks, bonds, options and more. You can even put your cash to work at an industry leading 4.1% APY. Leave your clunky, outdated platform behind. Go to public.com and fund your account in five minutes or less. Paid for by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Full disclosures at public.com disclosures.
- [40:42]
Krystal Ball
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- [41:42]
Krystal Ball
It's Megan.
- [41:43]
Scott Horton
Are you ready for hashtag Megan Summer?
- [41:46]
Sagar Enjeti
Megan.
- [41:46]
Ad
Megan.
- [41:46]
Sagar Enjeti
Megan.
- [41:47]
Scott Horton
Megan.
- [41:47]
Krystal Ball
Megan.
- [41:48]
Ad
Would you prefer that I give you a printout that you can read at your own pace?
- [41:51]
Krystal Ball
Megan?
- [41:52]
Ad
Yes, it's me. What a shock.
- [41:53]
Scott Horton
Et cetera on June 27.
- [41:55]
Ad
She is a smoking hot warrior princess.
- [41:58]
All right, meat sacks, let's get to work. Are you going to stand in my way?
- [42:03]
Scott Horton
The bee is back.
- [42:05]
Ad
You think you learned your lesson the first time?
- [42:07]
Krystal Ball
Megan.
- [42:08]
Scott Horton
Megan 2.0. Only in theaters June 27th for DPT 13.
- [42:13]
Sagar Enjeti
I think Zoron's biggest difficulty is going to be running headlong into the reality of New York. Like I've talked about it here on finance, it's like good luck, man. I mean your literal tax base relies on like 15 people who live in the city. That's a huge prop, huge problem. Like again, you know, the entrenched interest and the permitting and all this stuff, I get that it's really bad, but what, you think you're the first guy to ever notice that the taxicab union has too much power or that the permitting stuff for halal, it's like it's a byzantine system. Free buses, right? It's like, yeah, we'll see. Last I checked, what is it? MTA is what, half funded by Albany? There's always these huge fights between the governor and the actual mayor. I mean this is like a decades long thing. And I'm sorry, I'm getting too in the weeds. But like that's actually what I think would be the failure of a mayoral campaign by him is to come in with these promises, free baskets or whatever, and listen, I mean these things are also, you know, you can over promise and then dramatically under deliver. Remember Didn't New York pass, like a right to housing or something like that? They have a right to housing in their shop. It's like, yeah. And that turned out to be a fucking mess. Whenever the migrant crisis broke out, it basically nearly bankrupted the city and turned a huge portion of working class New Yorkers against immigration. And so you can see how these things can actually really like, not work out in the way that you want it to or can be overstretched. And, you know, this is the reality. Like, you're not the president of the United States. You're the mayor of New York. You got city council that you have, and then you have the governor on top. So you're both like a figurehead with some power, but not a whole lot of power. And then same on policing again, his old tweets on defund the police. I know he has recanted some of that stuff, but all it's gonna take is like a moderate increase in crime and oh, man, they will hang you out to dry in a second. So I see the treachery for his path. Even if he does get elected to be much more like in the nitty gritty of the reality of how it.
- [44:14]
Krystal Ball
All happens, he has to govern effectively.
- [44:16]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah. And I think it's just really hard in that city. I just don't. I mean, the way that it works. I mean, you haven't really. The political system in New York has just not worked for, like, decades at this point.
- [44:27]
Krystal Ball
Well, there's a. There's two different potentials. You know, you've got Brandon Johnson in Chicago, who has an extremely low approval rating, has governed very poorly, has been unable to deliver on some of the significant promises he made in his campaign. And then there's Michelle Wu in Boston, who similarly elected quite young and has been quite successful and has been able to govern quite effectively and also comes out of the left of the party and is really popular in the city. You know, I also, I lived in New York City during the Bill de Blasio time and so stagger your point about. Like, the entrance that he'll be up against are extraordinary. Now, luckily for Zoron, if he does, you know, win in the fall, he's not gonna have Andrew Cuomo as governor. Kathy Hochul is moderate, but Andrew Cuomo was actively in league with the Republicans. He and de Blasio despised each other. Openly open warfare. And he did everything he could to try to block Bill de Blasio's core campaign promise of free pre k. Now, de Blasio to his Credit was able to actually get that through and it's been phenomenally successful and really important program in New York City. One of the few ways that New York City has really been able to expand services in a way that's been quite impactful for residents of the city, for ordinary working class residents of the city. But de Blasio, who I think much less effective communicator than Zoran, doesn't have some of the star power of Duran, but his morality was really dragged down by a lot of those entrenched, you know, the real estate developers and the battles with Cuomo and all those sorts of things. So there is no doubt that even Zoron gets in in the fall. He's going to have, you know, a lot that he's going to have to cope with. Another thing people are pointing to is Brad Lander is currently the city comptroller and you know, has, I think is likely to be or potentially to be involved in Zoran's administration. And he is respected sort of broadly as being high competent, certainly understands the ins and outs of how the city works. So assembling people like that on his team who do have that experience and that know how are also going to be really critical. Let's talk about a little bit of the unhinged Dem reaction because while we showed you some Democrats at least being willing to play ball, Bill Clinton actually saying okay, good luck in November, I've seen a bunch of the local like county Democratic parties getting behind Zorin as well. There have been others. Let's go ahead and put B5 up on the screen and we can go through some of these, so can you. We've got Dean Phillips saying Democrats wishing to lose the 26 midterms should promote a 33 year old socialist devoid of executive experience for mayor of America's largest city and impeach a president who ended a tyrannical regime's nuclear threat while achieving a ceasefire days later. So that is his view. Let's put the next one up on this. Brianna Wu, of course, weighing in here. It's an excellent piece. How can someone lead America's most important city if they want to burn down the democracy that makes our way of life in America possible? Like what are you even talking about here? This is all over Zorin's defense of the phrase globalize the Intifada, which became big fodder for the campaign. But ineffective attack, who gives a shit?
- [47:27]
Sagar Enjeti
This stuff drives me crazy.
- [47:29]
Krystal Ball
I know, I'm serious.
- [47:30]
Sagar Enjeti
Again, I live here in this city. I don't know Mayor Bowser's view of globalized the nor do I care. Right, Correct. Stop the bums from nodding out and shooting up in the middle of the street and knocking on my window. That's it. That's all I actually care about. It's like it's one of those things where we get lost in the city where I'm just so happy that this failed at the ballot box. I truly am. And that people were like, yeah, this is bullshit. Oh God.
- [47:59]
Krystal Ball
I think we might have a least Stefanic reaction here. We can go to next where she's apparently already fundraising off of Mamdani was the next one. And then I think we had one last one that we could go to as well. Of this is no surprise reverberation for Momdani winning ours now have a real life socialist to run against. Y' all were warned this would happen. This was in response to Stefan fundraising off him and then put the next one up on the screen. Andrew Cuomo should literally be sentenced to effing death for running the worst campaign in modern history and letting a communist win literal death penalty. I am serious. So now who wants to eat the rich? Now who's doing the execution?
- [48:38]
Sagar Enjeti
I would not Central Park. I guess it's the center for letting Zoron win. I would say maybe for letting people die in a nursing home.
- [48:44]
Krystal Ball
How about that?
- [48:45]
Sagar Enjeti
That's just me.
- [48:45]
Krystal Ball
You know, maybe that was a slightly more important. More important thing for you to be mad at Andrew Cuomo for is the fact that you. He put elderly people with COVID back in nursing homes where they infected other people and led to an increase in the death rate and then led a cover up of it and lied about it to Congress and to Congress and yeah, we're hanging out with your brother and joking about your case.
- [49:05]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, look, it's been years since we've litigated this, but of course we will never forget Bradley. I think Zoron was a very effective candidate. I think he did well. It's obviously a shock to the Democratic establishment. They would do well to listen for him personally. Really. It's gonna be a great battle test. I think AOC dramatically failed that test and basically became like a woke stooge and was a hilarity also let down a lot of the progressive movement. And now she's trying to slowly come back after Trump won the election. But I'm not sure she'll ever regain that type of credibility. If he continues in this post woke campaign and tries to deliver, he has a shot. But I Think he's up against absolutely insane odds. Just considering the way that that system works. I'd read a little bit about LaGuardia and how effective he was. It just seems to me that those institutions are so decayed and especially because at that time period it was just less captured by money.
- [49:59]
Krystal Ball
I mean, I mean he had to go up against the Tammany hall entrenched political democratic political establishment. That's one of the parallels that people have drawn.
- [50:07]
Sagar Enjeti
This is genuinely insurmountable. It's such an unlivable place in a way, affordability wise. And it's so capital by these titans, you know, those. What's that? It starts with a V. Like the Vornado real estate. They own like all of Times Square, you know, and they can just shut you down. It's effectively like a private government of all of these landlords and all these other people who if they come and pool together, they can leverage their resources to basically buckle you. And not to mention they still own, you know, City hall and then they always have Albany in their back pocket. It's such an insane. And I would, I would never want that job.
- [50:44]
Krystal Ball
I truly would not. This, to be honest with you, this is making me miss New York City so much. I love New York City. Yeah, I miss living there. I mean, it's a difficult place to live in a lot of ways, but it's also, there's such, there's just so such vibrancy. You know, the truly like the melting pot, all the different ethnicities and all the different neighborhoods and character. Like you could explore that city for your whole life and still be surprised by the things that you find. So I don't know. Zorin has rekindled my sort of love affair with that city. But you're not wrong about the odds that he's up against. You know, I will say he ran a very effective campaign, demonstrated a lot of sort of like managerial competence. Didn't have any like weird woke left wing meltdowns within the campaign staff was highly competent, they executed flawlessly, very well. And he's got a lot of important allies who do have experience in the city. So, you know, I don't think the residents of New York are looking for him to be able to effectuate the socialist revolution and have, you know, make their lives like. I don't think they, I think they understand he's not going to have a magic wand is what I'm trying to say. So it's going to be crucial that he deliver on some of these key promises that people can notice that they can sink their teeth into that, make them feel like, okay, he's at least trying and fighting to do the things that he said that he was going to do and critically, that he is an effective, competent manager. The trash is getting picked up, the snow is getting removed, all those sorts of things.
- [52:06]
Sagar Enjeti
It's like crime services. And then make sure that you at least can tangibly show people on cost because that's what screws every sometimes they'll tangibly deliver on services, but then the crime goes up and it's like again, if you look at all of the history, it's so, so difficult just because again, you don't really have total power over it. And there's so many intersections, interest groups. But it'll be interesting. It'll definitely be interesting to watch.
- [52:29]
Krystal Ball
Oh yeah.
- [52:29]
Sagar Enjeti
All right, let's get to Scott Horton. He's standing by.
- [52:32]
Scott Horton
You know what's great about your investment account with the big guys? It's actually a time machine. Log in and zoom. Welcome back to 1999. It's time for an upgrade. At public.com you can invest in almost everything. Stocks, bonds, options and more. You can even put your cash to work at an industry leading 4.1% APY. Leave your clunky, outdated platform behind. @Public.com Go to Public.com and fund your account in five minutes or less. Paid for by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Full disclosures at public.com disclosures future health.
- [53:03]
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- [54:02]
Krystal Ball
It's Megan.
- [54:04]
Scott Horton
Are you ready for hashtag Megan Summer.
- [54:06]
Sagar Enjeti
Megan.
- [54:06]
Ad
Megan.
- [54:07]
Sagar Enjeti
Megan.
- [54:07]
Scott Horton
Megan.
- [54:08]
Krystal Ball
Megan.
- [54:08]
Ad
Would you prefer that I give you a printout that you can read at your own pace?
- [54:11]
Krystal Ball
Megan.
- [54:12]
Ad
Yes, it's me. What a shock.
- [54:14]
Scott Horton
Etc a June 27th.
- [54:16]
Ad
She is a smoking hot warrior princess.
- [54:18]
All right, meat stacks, let's get to work. Are you going to stand in my way?
- [54:23]
Scott Horton
The bee is back.
- [54:25]
Ad
Do you think you learned your lesson the first time?
- [54:27]
Krystal Ball
Megan.
- [54:29]
Scott Horton
Megan 2.0 only in theaters June 27th for DPT 13.
- [54:34]
Sagar Enjeti
Joining us now is Scott Horton. He is the director of the Libertarian Institute and the author of Provoked and great friend of the show. It's good to see you, man. Thanks for coming back.
- [54:41]
Ad
Thank you both very much for having me this morning.
- [54:43]
Sagar Enjeti
Absolutely. We got a lot of Iran stuff to get to with you, Scott. First and foremost is a new statement from the Ayatollah Khamenei. Let's go ahead and put it up up there on the screen. He's spoken out for the very first time. There was some speculation as to whether he'd been disappeared basically this entire time. Nobody really knows where he is. Striking a defiant tone there, basically declaring victory over the US Regime in his statement. So it is interesting at least for what some of the posturing is. We also have posturing from the Iranians with this idea that their nuclear program has not actually been all that severely degraded. This is now a massive fight here in Washington. As you and I are speaking right now. The Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth is berating the media for reporting the previous intelligence estimate. And we also have the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard coming out backing up Donald Trump. We can put that up there on the screen. Says new intelligence confirms that the POTUS has stated numerous times Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed. If they choose to rebuild, they would have to rebuild all facilities facilities entirely, which would take years to do. So she then goes after the propaganda media. So first your reaction to that and I understand you also wanted to expand a little bit on some comments you've made previously here on the show.
- [55:58]
Ad
Yeah, I really. Well, I'm ultimately still right anyway in the end. But I oversimplified a point when I was talking about uranium versus plutonium nukes and Iran's various potential routes to the bomb. And you guys comment section called me out immediately and correctly so. So the first thing was just a complete scrub where I just mixed up Batman and Little Boy. Little Boy was the Hiroshima bomb. Batman was the Nagasaki bomb, which wasn't. I did get this part right. Was the plutonium implosion bomb. And that is almost universally the type of bomb that is miniaturized and married to missiles. And what I overstated was, I think I said that it was virtually impossible to make a uranium implosion bomb, which is not really right. That was oversimplified. The real point is because Iran has no plutonium route to the bomb, because they don't have, they didn't nevermind what's been bombed now, but they never had a reprocessing facility necessary to clean the impurities out of plutonium to use it for weapons fuel. So they didn't have that route to the bomb all. And then their uranium route to the bomb, the presumption was that if they made a bomb it would be a gun type nuke, because that would be the easiest and cheapest to make. That if they race to a bomb they could do that quickly. Whereas if they were, it is possible to make an implosion bomb out of uranium, but it's much more complicated and would require a lot more testing. And there have been a bunch of false accusations about them working on those implosion systems at Parchin, for example, which turned out to be a bunch of propaganda that was later debated, debunked. But so my point still stands in that if they had broken out from the treaty and said we're going to make nukes now, they could either race toward a gun type nuke, which is essentially undeliverable, or they could plot along and try to get an implosion type bomb and figure out how to make one and marry that to a missile. And I believe that must have been what the intelligence assessment had been referring to a couple weeks ago, saying that it would take them up to three years to have that done if they had were openly seeking one. So the point essentially still remained, it was just that I had screwed up, first of all the names of the bombs we dropped on Truman, dropped on Japan, which is a stupid error. And then secondly, I had essentially just overstated the limitations of a uranium bomb and that essentially they would be forced to make a gun type nuke and would not have an implosion option available, which is not correct. It was just, it would take a lot more effort for them to do so and it would give America and Israel a lot more time to launch an aggressive war against them in order to prevent them from getting that far. So that point essentially still stands. And I believe I made that same screw up on Pierce Morgan and on the Jimmy Dore show. So this counts. I Hope as corrections for those two, actually tried to invite myself on back onto both to correct the same error because I really hate being wrong about anything. People in my position, our position, trying to oppose these wars, we can't afford to be wrong. And I certainly was not trying to oversimplify, to deceive anyone or anything, but essentially did so. So I want to make sure that we get that straight.
- [59:10]
Krystal Ball
We appreciate your commitment to that kind of precision, Scott. It's part of what gives you so much credibility here. So what do you make of the battle over the intelligence assessment of how badly damaged these nuclear facilities ultimately were?
- [59:25]
Ad
Yeah, well, you know, know what? Not in a real, like, benefit of the doubt sense, but just my feeling is I think Trump is probably right that the damage was, you know, what they were hoping to get. And part of that is just because I know of the precision, their ability that they've had for many years to be able to drop a missile right down a chimney, fly it in a window. It's been this way since Iraq War one. And, and for them to drop a dozen or more, 14, I guess it was, they said 30,000 pound shape charge. You know, these charges are meant to blast straight down and they're £30,000. And then they drop them over and over and over down the same few holes. I imagine they can get quite a bit of damage done down there. And now their question was whether they had destroyed, you know, all the buried centrifuge facilities and so forth. I'm really not sure about that, obviously. But, you know, Seymour Hersh had a thing where his sources are telling him that they actually didn't think that they could reach all the centrifuge facilities down there. And that wasn't what they were trying to do. Instead, they decided that they would just essentially hit every entrance and every air shaft and every tunnel available and to just seal the place off, off anybody down there, be buried alive and no one on the surface ever be able to get down there again. And the, the one option would be that they would be able to do, you know, a major M shaft type operation. Like they did this rescue mission that he refers to years ago, I think in Peru or South Africa or something, where these guys were buried very deep down for a very long time. And they, they did get down there. So he. But then we could bomb them when they're in the middle of trying. That would essentially be the threat.
- [61:10]
Scott Horton
Right.
- [61:11]
Ad
So that sounds at least credible to me that they know what they're doing. We're talking about the U.S. air Force. Can they put firepower on a target and collapse the tunnel? Sure they can. So, and then they did virtually, I believe, you know, destroy everything of real value at Ispahan, which is where they had the conversion facilities where you take the uranium ore, turn it to yellow cake and then refine that or convert that, as they call it, to uranium hexafluoride gas, which, you know, need to enrich up to higher and higher percentages of U235. Then you have to convert it back into metal again. And they apparently destroyed all of that. And then, by the way, so there's this guy, David Albright, has a group called isis, which he called it that before the Islamic State guys, but, and, and he's kind of a very pro Israel simp. You know, I don't, I don't really like him, but I do respect his technical expertise. And his group has put out a pretty thorough report from commercial satellite pictures that they got where they run through Fordo, Isfahan, Natanz and a couple others. Apparently there's been severe damage done at Natanz as well. And I think Trump's crowing cuz the Air Force is telling him we did it. And he, and by the way, this is announced yesterday that they're gonna have talks next week. And it seems like Trump's position is going to be, look, man, I destroyed virtually your entire president program. No point in rebuilding it because I'll just bomb it again. So just don't. And then as he put it yesterday, I don't even think we need a new nuclear deal. We're just going to go on. They're just going to not have a nuclear program anymore. And I'm not really sure about that. The Ayatollah obviously has a huge incentive to be defiant as he was in that speech. There's probably a likelihood that it's true as they bragged that they already have another secret facility up and running.
- [63:01]
Sagar Enjeti
Right.
- [63:01]
Ad
Or at least they're working on getting it. And I've been warning all along, I'd be happy to be wrong about this, I don't care. But the, the anti war forces in America have warned all along that the threat, of course, is that if we attack them, then they'll make a nuke, whereas this whole time they had acquired essentially a latent deterrent instead of going as far as having an actual nuclear weapon. So, so flip a coin, I guess. We'll see how it works out, right?
- [63:30]
Sagar Enjeti
So that's the thing, Scott. Everybody's trying to parse this Language. And if you really do look at it precisely like for example, we can put the next one up there. This is from the CIA director. The CIA director John Ratcliffe released a statement. CIA can confirm a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran's nuclear program has, quote, been severely damaged by the recent targeted strikes. This includes new intelligence, et cetera. But the word severely damaged is what really struck out to me because I mean, look, I know that Trump and the politicians are rhetorically. But obliteration to me means basically non existent. Whereas severely damaged is more in the realm of, well, it's technically repairable, especially when you pile on top the secret facilities, like you said. I also do believe that there's a lot of intra governmental leaking going on because what's the incentive of somebody leaking saying that the strike wasn't all that credible? Well, we gotta go back and we gotta go to do it again. Right. And so then there's a lot of politicization here of the intelligence as well. So parsing those two things, you still think, like you said, that that secret facility is technically a possibility, but it may not necessarily be months as that initial, initial assessment said.
- [64:37]
Ad
Yeah, man, there's so much that we just don't know yet. But, and I think the most important variable in it all is the Ayatollahs reaction action. Either we just made him mad and now, and plus all the guys around him too, they're all just going to be demanding, you know, further, you know, nuclear development. We'll just build a new Isfahan, we'll just build a new nuance, we'll just do whatever we have to do to keep going. Or is it the case that, hey, United States of America called his bluff and ultimately their latent nuclear deterrent wasn't enough to stop us and their mid range missile deterrent wasn't enough and they didn't dare, right? They shot. And this is such an important point too. This is the madman Ayatollah who only wants to bring on the apocalypse. He's willing to lose his whole nation in a first strike against Israel. They've told us for 25 years here or something like that. But now he did the same thing that Trump did after he killed Soleimani and previous to that, in the summer of 19 when they had their back and forth over Khatib Al Hezbollah, Hezbollah in Iraq, which is a Shiite militia backed by Iran there and back and forth between them and Americans. They shot down the drone, I believe it was in the summer of 19 and then it was after Soleimani in the beginning of 20, they bombed the empty corner of an American base in Iraqi Kurdistan, which did give guys some concussions and things. It wasn't completely harmless, but it was obviously meant to be essentially a symbolic response. The same thing that they did when the Israelis killed the Hamas leader in Tehran in a bombing, and then they also had struck the Iranian consulate in Syria and killed important Iranian officials there. They launched that missile salvo at Israel, but they announced it beforehand and said, you know, essentially, get all of your defenses ready, because the Ayatollah, I'm sure it'd be terrible to live there there, but he is essentially cautious in foreign policy because, and I'm sorry if I'm repeating myself, but I been saying this for a very long time. If you're the Ayatollah, what are you going to do with a problem like the usa, right? America has an incredibly powerful air force. Even with conventional weapons, we could obliterate Iran's cities and they couldn't do nothing to us. They couldn't sail a boat within a thousand miles of our shores every ever. Right? So, so what's he going to do? Just get into a brawl with Donald Trump and lose so badly when he could try to calm it down? And so what do you do? He. He launched an attack at an American base in Iraq and an American base, our most important base, at Qatar, CENTCOM headquarters at Al Udine Air base in Qatar. And he's. And as Trump said in a tweet, thank you very much for the prior warning that you're going to launch this symbolic attack and let us, you know, shoot it down and this kind of thing. So the Ayatollah there was telegraphing very obviously, I do not want to fight you, Please let's call this off.
- [67:36]
Krystal Ball
So, yeah, it's almost like what he's.
- [67:39]
Ad
Gonna do now, and he's an old man, too. He could drop dead tomorrow.
- [67:42]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it's almost like they're rational actors and not the like, you know, end time psychopaths that we've been sold on who are ready to nuke Kansas the moment that they have the opportunity, or Tel Aviv, for that matter. Matter. Let's talk a little bit about the other nation state involved in this conflict. That would be Israel. Guys, if you could put C5 up on the screen. This is, you know, the axis between the American neocons and also the Israelis. You've got Mark Levin here praising Netanyahu for his new speech, saying Israelis have never been more united, the Arab world has never been more appreciative. Netanyahu is a truly remarkable leader. And this is with regards to speech where Netanyahu says we must complete the campaign against the Iranian axis, defeat Hamas, bring about the release of all of our hostages. And he says in there as well, we have no intention of taking our foot off the gas. We must complete the campaign against the Iranian axis. At the same time, guys, if you could put C3B up on the screen, this was a truth from Trump, which I will spare you reading all of this way too long thing. But in essence, here he is praising Bibi Netanyahu lavishly and calling for the corruption charges which he's been facing inside of Israel to be dropped. He says he's been going through this horror show with regard to these corruption charges since May of 2020. Unheard of. This is the first time a sitting Israeli prime minister has ever been on trial and calls him politically motivated. So in any case, what do you make of how the Israelis are assessing this moment and what do you think is going on here with this Trump truth in praise of Netanyahu?
- [69:22]
Ad
Well, I think everything's coming up Likud, right? I mean, they have been largely successful in the annihilation of the society. The Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the settlers are on the move, expanding in the West Bank. They've taken all the territory up to the Litany river in southern Lebanon and taken a major chunk out of Syria. They've completed, with the help of the Turks, the Al Qaeda revolution and takeover of Syria and the end of the Ba' Athist regime there, which was led by Alawites who were close to the Shiites and close to Iran. They, you know, through the pager attack and aerial attacks, they have severely crippled Hezbollah as well as killed their leader, Nasra. They got America to come in and help them to severely cripple, at the very least, Iran's nuclear program. We don't know exactly as we've been talking about how that's going to play out, what the consequences of that will be. They still have the Houthis, and the Houthis are hard to kill. Barack Obama and Donald Trump already tried to kill them and Joe Biden a little bit for about eight years there and didn't win anything. All they did was war is the health of the state unless you lose. And in this case, they didn't lose. So the people of Yemen are more united around their government now than probably ever before under what the academics call the rally around the flag effect. I know a reporter that I interviewed years ago, or I interviewed him a ton of times. Nasser Arabi from Sana' a said, oh, we're all Houthis now. Not that they are, but the same way Americans supported George W. Bush, somebody attacks us, then it's us versus you, if that's how it is. And as he put it to me, he said, well, George Bush is from Texas, right? But when he's the president of the country, he's not just a Texan, he's the president of the country, and he's respected as such by the people of the whole country, not just the Texans, of course. So it's the same thing when the Shiites from the Sada province are in charge. You attack the country. You attack the country. And now there are splits and, you know, in the south, they have the STC and all that. But overall, the Houthis have, have proven to be a very difficult target to take out from the, the air and who's going to send in ground troops there. And this goes back to our hypothetical about Iran, which I sort of trailed off instead of wrapping up that if they decide to double down on their nuclear program, then we go back to what Netanyahu said the other day, which is, you know, what would solve this problem permanently killing the ayatollah and having a regime change there one way or the other, which they may even be able to accomplish by air if they have real intelligence. Trump threatened, I know exactly where you are. I could kill you right now if I wanted to the other day, you know, a few week ago. And so by the, by their logic, if, if they're right, if even the guys, you know, Mark Dubowitz from the foundation for Defense and Democracies, are saying, well, now that Israel started this war, America better go in there with their big bunker busters, officiate, or else now they're going to bring break out toward a nuke. Well, they still might now try to break out toward a nuke, in which case the logic is that the problem isn't solved yet. We got to keep killing mullahs until the problem is solved, until we compare shoot in a monarch. Or we can have, maybe we'll have al Qaeda in Iraq take over in Iran, too, since they've done such a great job in Syria for us.
- [72:49]
Sagar Enjeti
I mean, listen, you know, Donald Trump literally shaking the guy's hand and shaking the guy's hand. It's unbelievable.
- [72:55]
Ad
He has a very strong past. Trump said, look it up. He told Frontline. He's like, yeah, I killed American soldiers in Mosul and Ramadi. That's the strong past that Trump's referring to.
- [73:05]
Sagar Enjeti
But we gotta take out the Ayatollah because American soldiers.
- [73:08]
Ad
And this goes the whole thing. Israel's enemies are the Shiites, but it was not Hezbollah that knocked our towers down. I'm sorry I'm such a broken record on this, but this is all treason. Because the Likud hates Iran, right? But America could have normalized relations with Iran back in the 1990s. Hell, Ronald Reagan was selling. Selling him missiles in the mid-1980s after Beirut. Within a couple of years, he's selling him missiles. Zabigna Brzezinski and Alexander Haig wanted to normalize relations in 1993. The Ayatollah came begging George W. Bush to get along with the golden offer in 2002. Said, you guys hate the Taliban, you guys hate Saddam Hussein, you guys hate Al Qaeda. Let's work together.
- [73:46]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [73:47]
Ad
And the neoconservatives said no, because Israel hates the Shiites more. Somehow that matters more than who hit the Pentagon.
- [73:54]
Krystal Ball
Let me ask you one last question here, which is the Iranians are trying to claim and assert some sort of victory and project that they effectively were able to effect enough damage inside of Israel that Israel felt the need to accept this ceasefire. And there was reporting about Israel running low on interceptors. And I think the other way they're claiming victory is basically like you all wanted to destroy us and collapse the government, and the government is still here, and our nation is still here. So what do you make of their sort of celebration and their claiming of a victory in these circumstances?
- [74:30]
Ad
Well, in the first case, there. There may be some truth to that, that they still have missiles in reserve, and Israel's running out of sparrows and iron domes and patriots and whatever that they had to shoot them down with. There may be some truth to that. I'm sure there was some pressure on the Israelis on their side of it, because a lot more. More missiles did get through than they thought. As far as the second part, I think that's sort of propaganda, you know, trying to portray a little bit of a position of strength there. You know, domestically, trying to save a little bit of face there. But it was. I think it was Donald Trump that. That said we're calling a halt here short of regime change. I think if he had given Netanyahu permission to keep going or had shared the intelligence is where we think the Ayatollah is, go ahead and get him, then they absolutely could go that far. You know, anybody could probably just picture you know, just from memory, B52s over North Vietnam, just what they call carpet bombing. Just pouring dumb bombs out of the belly of those gigantic, gigantic heavy bomber planes that we have. And there's pictures, people seen, profile pictures of B2s doing the same. But the B52s, especially America, could really devastate. He, it was credible when he ordered, Donald Trump, don't forget, ordered the evacuation of Tehran.
- [75:58]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [75:59]
Ad
And the implication, you know, was like, geez, I don't think he's gonna nuke him, but what is he gonna do? Like, what, what is even the implication there? It turned out the implication which was the most minimal one was just, oh, he was going to encourage the Israelis to keep hitting government targets in that city. He was. They weren't going for terror bombing of the neighborhoods on the vast scale that they could. But, boy, even that threat sure sounded like it. And, and was going very far here. So I would expect for the, the population and the political establishment inside Iran to be more radicalized and more defiant than ever. It's, it's only natural, really. Unless the Ayatollah just slams his fist down, says, no, I'm in charge here. And I say, boy, we better be conciliatory now because of our position of weakness, which I think is doubtful. Right. Like, but that's what it would take. It would take him telling, you know, shouting at everybody else to shut up. I'm the one deciding. And I've decided that we're going to have to play a little bit meek in the face of this madman or whatever. But I don't know how anyone could fairly expect that to be the result of this, quite frankly.
- [77:02]
Sagar Enjeti
We'll see. Scott, thank you so much for joining us, man. We appreciate your analysis.
- [77:05]
Krystal Ball
Great to see you, Scott.
- [77:06]
Ad
Thank you both so much. Yeah, really appreciate y' all.
- [77:23]
Scott Horton
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- [77:53]
Krystal Ball
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- [78:53]
Krystal Ball
It's Megan.
- [78:55]
Scott Horton
Are you ready for hashtag Megan Summer.
- [78:57]
Krystal Ball
Megan Megan Megan Megan Megan.
- [78:59]
Ad
Would you prefer that I gave you a printout that you can read at your own pace?
- [79:02]
Krystal Ball
Megan again.
- [79:03]
Ad
Yes, it's me. What a shock.
- [79:05]
Scott Horton
Etc on June 27.
- [79:07]
Ad
She is a smoking hot warrior princess.
- [79:09]
All right meat sacks, let's get to work. Are you going to stand in my way?
- [79:14]
Scott Horton
The BE is back.
- [79:17]
Ad
Do you think you learned your lesson the first time?
- [79:19]
Krystal Ball
Megan Megan 2.0 only in theaters June.
- [79:22]
Ad
27 for DPT 13 this is an iHeart podcast.