← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
7/10/25: Jon Stewart Rips Jeffries, AIPAC Exposed By Wine Moms, Bibi Records With NELK, Amazon Sales Plunge
01:02:06
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- [00:00]
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- [01:50]
Sagar Enjeti
Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.
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Krystal Ball
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:59]
Sagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
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Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:16]
Sagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com so in the.
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Krystal Ball
Wake of Zoran Mamdani's Democratic primary victory, you've got a number of establishment Democrats who are starting to sweat a little bit about a potential primary challenge from the left. Hakeem Jeffries was Asked about this possibility for himself on cnn. Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
- [02:36]
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I have no idea what these people are talking about. We are going to continue to focus our efforts, as we did on the House floor, in connection with Donald Trump's one big ugly bill, on pushing back against the extremism that has been unleashed.
- [02:52]
Sagar Enjeti
On the American people.
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It's clear to us as members of.
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Sagar Enjeti
The New York City delegation that the.
- [02:56]
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Problem is Donald Trump and House Republicans.
- [03:01]
Sagar Enjeti
Are you being honest when you say you don't know why they're targeting you? By that, you know why they're targeting you? Oh, no, I'm not. I know why they're targeting. You know why they're. But I don't. I don't care that they're targeting. Well, so why don't you say it? You know why they're targeting. I think they're targeting me because I'm Pro Israel. That's 100%. Yeah, that's the issue.
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Krystal Ball
So are you saying they're targeting you.
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Sagar Enjeti
And all of these other individuals?
- [03:17]
Krystal Ball
Yvette Clark, Hakeem.
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Sagar Enjeti
I think I have. I am specifically targeted because of my position on Israel. And by the way, he's been courageous on this issue and he's had a backbone, and he has stood up to the wacko radicals and his party on this, and he deserves all the credit in the world for it. But that's why he's on the list, because these people have a burning hatred for Israel. It's one of their main pieces of their platform, and that's why they put him on the list. And it's terrible.
- [03:38]
Krystal Ball
So starting there with Hakeem Jeffries, and then to Richie Torres, who starts looking very uncomfortable as Scott Jennings starts singing his phrase on cnn. And I mean, look, these people, they should be afraid right now, because the Democratic base, in a way I have never seen before, they are disgusted with the Hakeem Jeffries of the world. And you know what? On Israel, listen, most people are not going to be voting on Israel and Gaza. However, this is beginning to be a sort of, like, gatekeeping litmus test issue within the Democratic primary base, because it's an indication of, are you going to fight? Are you willing to stand up for things that are different? Are you willing to stand up against moneyed interests? And do you have any, like, core principles that. Do you have basic humanity and any basic values that we can rely on? So, yes, the fact that Richie Torres, who represents one of the poorer districts in the country, has spent so much time fixated on supporting a foreign country rather than trying to help out his own constituents in his own district. Yeah. That is gonna make you a target for a primary, and I very much suspect that he is going to face one. I think Hakeem Jeffries could as well, and I think both of them could potentially be very vulnerable here, specifically because of the way that the Democratic base has shifted in their view of their own establishment leaders.
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Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, that's actually the important point. The important point is that it's not about Israel per se. Although, you know, Ryan put this very eloquently yesterday about Epstein, and I think Israel has now become one of this. If you just repeat, Epstein killed himself or any sort of establishment thing, people's baseline. It's not that they're voting on Epstein. They're like, yeah, I don't trust this. They're like, this guy is captured. And if you talk about Israel and our strongest allies, the most moral army in the world, people are like, I don't know about this. That's kind of how I think it has become. Nobody's voting on it. They're just like. That becomes an entree point through which you can assess what people think about all of these other things. That's how I would put it. And so to see Hakeem Jeffries then also fumble it in just such an immense way, both in terms of the way he's handled the bill, in the way that he handles the entire opposition to Trump, in the way that the Democratic Party really wants. You are absolutely right. Ripe for a major takeover. The question is, like, what form does that take? I mean, you can correct me if I'm wrong. Isn't Jefferies, like. I mean, most of these districts, they're, like, heavily gerrymandered. It's gonna be pretty tough to actually get yourself a real primary. That would.
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Krystal Ball
No, you could get a real primary.
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Sagar Enjeti
Okay. I'm not quite sure.
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Krystal Ball
Richie Torres. I have to look at Hakeem Jeffries, Richie Torres district in particular. Zorin won.
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Sagar Enjeti
Right.
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Krystal Ball
I think he won Kakim Jeffries district as well, but I'd have to double check on that one. I know we won Dan Goldman's district, which is like a lower Manhattan district as well. So I don't know if you've followed this Richie Torres since Zoron's victory. Man, has he done a 180. He stopped Israel posting. He'll only occasionally now post about Israel, whereas previously it was like every other tweet is about Israel. You know, he put up this video that he quickly Took down. Cause I think it was such an embarrassing copy, attempted copy of what Zorin was doing. Like, the man on the street thing, he's just getting ripped apart. So he deleted it. He has gone to bat for Zoron in the context of saying these Islamophobic attacks on him are unacceptable. So he definitely recognizes that he has an issue and that he has a vulnerability. Hakeem Jeffries, I mean, he's so rizzless that it's astonishing. He is the biggest black hole of charisma I think I've ever seen in my entire life. I was watching his appearance on the View the other day just to see if there was anything interesting there that we might want to cover. And the way he talks, he does all these, like, disconnected hand motions while he's talking that you can clearly see. Some consultant was like, oh, you need to. This is the way to, like, punch up your presentation. And you need to be more. You need to, like. Yeah, you need to enunciate more. You need to use your hands. You need to be more energetic. And it just comes off like he's like a traffic cop or, you know, trying just very robotic. So for Richie Torres, the focus on Israel, he's right. It's a problem for him. It is a problem when you have a huge gulf of a disconnect between where Democratic leadership is and where the Democratic base is on Israel. Yes, that's an issue for you, no doubt about it. For Hakeem Jeffries, the fact that he has become a figure of public mockery across the board with your most normie possible, liberal Democrats, for his inability and unwillingness to fight Trump in any real meaningful way and how absolutely pathetic he's been in this moment. Yes, that makes him vulnerable, too. Jon Stewart actually was taking shots at him over his, like, insanely cringe, pathetic posting around the one big beautiful bill. Let's go ahead and take a look a little bit at what Jon Stewart had to say.
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Sagar Enjeti
But at least Democrats still have Hakeem Jeffries over in the House. He's a younger leader, and he decided not to answer with words, but with imagery. Hakeem Jeffries on Instagram. He's got a baseball bat and he says House Democrats will keep the pressure on Trump's one big ugly bill. Hakeem Jeffries answered with imagery. Imagery that sends a clear message to Republicans that Hakeem Jeffries and the Democrats are waiting for their moms to pick them up from T Ball.
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Krystal Ball
Yeah, Just absolutely pathetic.
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Sagar Enjeti
So here's the sneakers in that, too.
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Krystal Ball
Oh, my God. Yeah, it's a lesson.
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Sagar Enjeti
Stop dressing like shit.
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Krystal Ball
Stewart also made a good point of like, don't you know that if you want to look intimidating, the angle is from below, so you look larger, not above, so it shrinks you down and makes you look like.
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Sagar Enjeti
He doesn't even know all these basics. And apparently he's been caught using Facetune now multiple times. That is humiliating.
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Krystal Ball
Oh, he. There was this a picture he posted of himself on Instagram where he's like leaning up against the park bench and you can see very obviously the park bench is all wavy and manipulated from whatever they were doing to like, I don't know, make his hips smaller or something.
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Sagar Enjeti
That was my friend Julie Grace.
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Krystal Ball
What are you doing?
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Sagar Enjeti
Julie Grace, who is a great reporter who I recommend people follow who spotted the Facetune, so shout out to her. There's also. This is really fun. Let's put this next one up on the screen about mom eyeing him for a primary. And they respond. If Team Gentrification wants a primary fight, our response will be forceful and unrelenting. We will teach them and all of their incumbents a painful lesson. So branding them Team Gentrification is. I mean, what is that exactly? It's like the way that they're kind of trying to frame this as zoron is just like the rich, white leftist candidate and they're like the original residents of New York candidate. But I mean, it doesn't really fit with a lot of the data, you know, that has come out of the primary stuff. Especially if he was able to win your district.
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Krystal Ball
Yeah, no, no, that's exactly right. And I mean, it's also rich coming from Hakeem Jeffries, who takes, of course, money from all kinds of like private equity and whatever that are actually doing the gentrification. And from Hakeem Jeffries, who has been a leader in the Democratic Party as it has pivoted to be a richer, white, college educated party like that being the center of gravity within the Democratic party. Let's put C4 up on the screen just to dig into some of. So first of all, Zorin now, after all the ranked choice voting, he has now won the largest number of primary votes for a Democratic candidate in New York City of all time. Now, it is a little bit different because this ranked choice voting now wasn't before, blah, blah, blah, but that is still a really significant accomplishment. You don't do that. By just winning what they call the commie corridor. He made huge inroads into some of the hardcore Cuomo based. And now keep this up on the screen. This is polling for if all five can candidates stay in the race through the general. This is what it ultimately looks like. And you've got Zoran winning most every constituency. You have him winning white voters, black voters, Latino voters, Asian voters, college educated. Cuomo does beat him among non college by about three points. But you can't look at this and say this is just wealthy white people, gentrifiers. That is a preposterous way of. He's winning Latino voters by 21 points. And you know, for all the. There's been so much analysis about why left wing candidates struggle with the like black Democratic base. What you see from these numbers is, yeah, once you're the Democratic nominee, this is a constituency that's primarily loyal to the Democratic Party. They're by and large gonna vote for you. So in any case, any sort of look at the data with, you know, with an unbiased eye shows that this coalition was much broader than the way certainly that Hakeem Jeffries is trying to portray it here and who his base is at this point. Hakeem Jeffries, I don't know. I mean, maybe people in his district have some feeling about him that's different than the national narrative. I'm sure it will not be easy to unseat him, but I'm sure he has to be nervous. And if he has any sense whatsoever, he has to be nervous because he truly is a primary target. And last thing here before we get to the. I've had it, ladies. It's so crazy to me that you have this guy, you have the Democratic Party doing all this soul searching. Oh, my God. How do we appeal to young people again? How do we get the bros back? And how do we get excitement back into the party and make people trust us? Here comes Zoran out of nowhere. People freaking love this guy. They love him. He's a rock star. He's compelling. He understands the. He's got a message that clearly resonates with people. Like, hit the nail on the head there and then. He also understands the medium of the moment. Like he is a sort of native tiktoker where it's the vertical video and he's very comfortable in that forum. And this is the way that the public greets this guy on the street at this point. Let's go ahead and play C6.
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Sagar Enjeti
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Sagar Enjeti
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- [14:13]
Krystal Ball
So here you have this guy who is a true star. And the instinct of the Democratic Party establishment is like, what can we do to destroy him?
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Sagar Enjeti
Yeah.
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Krystal Ball
I mean, tells you so much about the party.
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Sagar Enjeti
Look, I see. I respect a renegade when they are there and I can see and recognize somebody who's got genuinely political talent. But, you know, that's what makes him vulnerable because that's ultimately why he was there in the first place. It does look a lot better. Better for him than the initial days. I think he's gonna win. I do, I do. I don't think he's. I don't see. I mean, Adams is, you know, it's possible. It's the only possible. He has a very low approval rating.
- [14:49]
Krystal Ball
People are so delusional about Eric Adams. Eric Adams has a 20% approval in the city of New York. He has the lowest mayoral approval in the history of that city. Like, even if, in fact, I actually think Cuomo is probably the stronger candidate against Zoron. If you are, you know, in the Bill Ackman camp of like, let's clear out the rest of the field. These guys all hate each other. They're not looking out to get out of the way of one another in order to be able to win. And Sliwa is going to pull his like 18% or whatever the vote. I mean, I don't know. It's certainly possible they'll be able to take him out. But also, if you look, Zorin has much higher favorability than any of these other candidates too.
- [15:24]
Sagar Enjeti
That makes a lot of sense.
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Krystal Ball
He's getting all the union backing at this point. There is a consolidation of sort of like those sorts of power bases within the city behind him, which is also going to make him very difficult to beat at this point.
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- [18:51]
Krystal Ball
All right, let's go and get to the I've had it, ladies who I am loving. So Emily educated me on what's the name of their Bravo reality show? Sweet Home. Sweet Home. So they came from the Bravo Bravo world, Emily calls it. It was like this hicklib show.
- [19:05]
Sagar Enjeti
She absolutely hated Their Sweet Home Oklahoma.
- [19:07]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. And they still live in Oklahoma and they now do this political podcast. And I've sort of watched over time as they have gone from just being like very wine mom resistance to being sort of increasingly radicalized. And I think that they are representative of something that is happening in the Democratic base and it fits certainly in with what's going on with Sauron. But watch them go in on the politicians who the New York politicians who have not gotten behind Zoran and then putting up they go to the AIPAC tracker and they put up all the money that all of these politicians are getting from AIPAC and pointing to that as the reason why they won't support Zoran Mamdani. Let's go ahead and take a listen to this.
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Representative
Representative Laura Gillen, $94,905. Representative Adriano Sbialat. I'm butchering his last name. 202,000 representative. Representative Tom Suozzi, $312,000. Representative Dan Goldman, $366,000. Representative Gregory Meeks, $690,000. Representative Grace Ming, $619,000. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, almost a million dollars coming in at $997,000. And I will remind you that she engaged in Islamophobic attacks on this mayoral candidate and didn't defend Islamophobia yet is so quick to call out anybody as being anti Semitic. And that's the thing in this is that we can speak out against the provocations in the war crimes of the Israeli government. And and they don't get to hold us hostage and tell us we're anti Semitic. That's bullshit. And don't fall into that trap. Next up, Representative Richie Torres, $1.5 million. Senator Chuck Schumer, $1.7 million Hakeem Jeffries, 1.7 million. Representative George Latimer, $19 million.
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Krystal Ball
So this is the kind of Lady Sager who definitely would have been a Hillary Clinton in the Bernie versus Hillary definitely would have been Hillary. The allegations of antisemitism in a previous moment definitely would have cowed them where they, oh, we can't say that. We can't talk about that, Whatever. And now here she is like, this is bullshit. Your weaponization of antisemitism. Here's Kirsten Gillibrand taking a million dollars from aipac. Like, screw all of these people. And I was telling you, I listened to actually this whole episode of them talking about AIPAC and talking about Hakeem Jeffries and Zoran Mamdani, et cetera, and it was really clear that. That the language around Israel and Palestine, like, they're not fluent in the language. And, you know, there's all these tripwires of how to talk about, you know, is it the IDF or is it the IOF and the occupation? Like, all this stuff, right? The language and the vernacular and the history, et cetera. And these are also the type of people that, because they didn't feel like they were experts on the conflict previously, would have just said, it must be complicated. I'm just gonna stay out of it. No, more like XI was perfectly willing to take a position, call it out, and say, we are not standing for the murder of these babies, and you all need to get on board. And so I do see that as a sort of sea change. And so while I don't want to overstate how central this issue is, I actually do think that it's becoming a very important dividing line in the Democratic Party. It reminds me of back in the days when gay marriage was still very much a live issue. And maybe it wasn't the issue that everyone was voting on, but for young Democrats in particular, it was like a gatekeeping item. It was a litmus test item. If you weren't there on gay marriage, then they really didn't want to hear the rest of what you had to say, because that was an indication that you're unprincipled. You have no, like, you have no political courage and willingness to stand up on an issue that, yes, at this moment, is difficult, and it was a difficult issue at the time. Gaza has become that issue in the Democratic primary party. I do think it's gonna be very important in 2028, because you just can't persist with such a massive gulf between where the Democratic base is, on something that is very emotional and visceral versus where the Democratic leadership is. And so that's why I think these ladies are a very important indication of the radicalization, the shift that has happened in the Democratic base on this issue. But that then dovetails into, well, who then are issue. Aligning herself with Zoran Mamdani, one of the furthest less characters in the party on fighting Trump. Who does someone like her end up aligning with? It's Bernie, it's aoc. She also would love, like a Jasmine Crockett. People who are out there and who are fighting. And so that's what's really profoundly different within the Democratic Party.
- [23:44]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, that's interesting. I hadn't thought about it that way. I mean, I don't know, though, on the gay marriage point, though. Obama ran in 2008 and basically didn't take a position on gay marriage. I mean, the way that I would see it then in Israel is somebody who's just not pro Israel and tries to ride the. Everyone knew Obama was for gay marriage, but he was like, oh, I'm not gonna take a position on it effectively at the time. And didn't really come out. I think it came out until 2013.
- [24:06]
Krystal Ball
The era I'm talking about is a little bit after that.
- [24:08]
Sagar Enjeti
Oh, okay.
- [24:09]
Krystal Ball
So, like, when I ran for Congress in 2010, I came out for gay marriage and I was like, oh, my God, like, it was a big deal. And, you know, so 2010, 2012, that's really the era of politics that I'm talking about, where it became this sort of like, you know, it was a statement issue where it told you what side you were on, whether you had any political courage or whether you were just someone who was gonna go along with what was the response.
- [24:32]
Sagar Enjeti
I don't predict a Zoran type figure being the national Democratic candidate on Israel. I just don't think they're willing to go that far. Or maybe I'd have to go back and look exactly at what he said. But I don't think that the future Democratic nominee will say the words genocide, apartheid, state. They'll probably say something along the lines of, what's happened there is a civilian catastrophe and we should reexamine our relationship with that. But, you know, in terms of the way the left discourses around this, I don't think that's ever going to happen. But with this, you know, also, though, rejecting the criticism of anti Semitism, I could see that for sure. I could definitely see something like that happen with these women. Yeah, it's interesting in terms of the way that the Israel relationship and all of that is being reexamined by the political base and that, you know, the only reason it's kind of an interesting idea is to the extent of like, how, quote, you know, she wants to fight on all of this. I'm still a bit skeptical. I mean, I wasn't here whenever you got. Didn't she do some trans thing with her and Rahm Emanuel? So I'm like, well, you know, it's like I'm still seeing a lot of this, like, toxic cultural left elements with these, like, suburban wine moms. I just don't think that's particularly, like, going to go anywhere. I mean, it may be nice, you know, to go viral online, but, like, I don't see that, you know, being resurrected as a major political issue or some sort of litmus test, you know, like that in the future. I don't disagree that, you know, you should, quote, abandoning principles or, or whatever should be happening on the stage. But I don't see the same vernacular around the way that she may wanna talk about these types of things being talked about on the Democratic stage in the future. So it's probably like a marriage of the two on Israel, immigration and any cultural issues in the future. People don't want, like, naked abandonment, which is kind of what I think you're talking about. But not every Democratic stage is gonna be raising their person on the Democratic station, be raising their hand talking about decriminalized border crossings again, which is what happened back in 2019 during that primary. So I'm not so sure yet. She's a canary for me on the Israel issue. But, like, I don't think that's the path of the way things are gonna be going on.
- [26:28]
Krystal Ball
That's just my opinion.
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Sagar Enjeti
No, no. On all issues, I think I'm saying we should not look at her as like, like what I'm saying is you should not look at the position that she's taking on all issues as kind of the way things are going to be going in the future. And that kind of what explains how you can support somebody like Jasmine Crockett and aoc. It's like you don't actually have any. Anything in common except for fighting Trump.
- [26:47]
Krystal Ball
The thing is the fighting Trump and that's it. And that's also where something like transgender issues where that comes in. Why that clip of her with Rahm Emanuel, who's just such a loathsome piece of shit anyway, and he's very punchable regardless of how you where you are on any issue. Why that resonated so much was not even so much about the particular issue. It was her willingness to say, you're just, just like adopting a Republican framing. And this is bullshit. And not to bend. And that's what's like the Democratic base previously it was all about, oh, let's reach out, let's have bipartisanship and let's get along. That is over. And so I think that's more of what has been the response to her, the response to Hakeem Jeffries, the response to all of these, like, you know, legacy Democratic establishment leaders. And I actually think you're wrong on Israel, Gaza especially because we're talking about, you know, a Democratic primary, presidential primary that's gonna happen a couple years in the future. It already has become among the Democratic base, very large majority believes this is a genocide. I can guarantee you. And when you have. What's so important about Zoran's victory in New York City is that he supports bds. Yeah, like he is anti Zionist. He would not bend to their like, well, does Israel have a right to exist as a Jewish state? And he's like, as a state with equal rights. The fact you could do that in the city, in this country that has not just the largest Jewish population, but this is a very significant part of New York culture. I agree New York is very culturally Jewish. These are important institutions. And that he could do that and not only get away with it, I actually think it ended up helping his campaign. Cuz people were so disgusted with the way that Cuomo tried to weaponize anti Semitism. That is going to be a signal to so many Democrats who are looking at how far they can, what they can say, how far they can go on this issue. And if AIPAC's already against you, like what are you gonna, you know, what more can you throw at these people? So I do think there is going to be a sea change on this issue in the Democratic Party because you cannot sustain a situation where 80% of your base feels one way and the over. Like all of the Democratic leaders basically feel a totally different way.
- [28:59]
Sagar Enjeti
I'm totally willing to be wrong. I just think policy wise, I don't think you're gonna be. We're all that different. Like, I think the policy is going to be very different. But in terms of the way that they talk about it, I do think they're probably going to settle on some sort of middle ground issue. I mean even Zoron, like he doesn't talk genocide, like even whenever he justifies bds, he talks about it in the terms of like equal rights. It seems more like a moderate framing where if you're in the know, you're like, oh shit. That's actually quite radical at Least for our current political project. That's the way I could see it. Becoming something at a major political level, which is undeniable. I agree. To be clear, Like, I'm totally. I think that's a good thing. I wish that all politicians would speak that way, but I think it would be more politically accessible. And also why it made the attacks on Zoron as anti Semitic so preposterous. Because if you talk about it moderately and you're like, yes, a state with equal rights, people are like, well, yeah, I mean, what's wrong with that?
- [29:50]
Krystal Ball
How would you be against it?
- [29:51]
Sagar Enjeti
Equal rights now or bds? It's like, yeah, you know, we should be able to boycott or divest and not have laws on the books for any country to anybody who we think is human rights.
- [30:01]
Krystal Ball
He had a whole news cycle about his defense of globalize, the Intifada. I remember, you know, like, I mean, he did say the things like he didn't center his campaign around that, but because those were all the attacks that were incoming, it became a very significant part of the campaign. Remember going on Colbert and like, getting out.
- [30:17]
Sagar Enjeti
Sure, yeah. All that.
- [30:18]
Krystal Ball
All that stuff. That was crazy. So in any case, let me just play you one more clip of the. I've had it, ladies talking about Hakeem Jeffries. Cause I think this is interesting as well. Again, as a signpost of how disgusted the normie liberal Democratic base is with their own leaders at this point. This is very different from previous eras in the Democratic Party. Let's take a listen.
- [30:37]
Representative
First of all, he has addressed the rise of anti Semitism. And it's not performative. It's very, very real. And he understands that it's real. And he has the endorsement of other Jewish politicians that aren't propagandized by a corrupt Israeli government. This was your moment, Hakeem. To also stand up against Islamophobia. Because here's the thing about human rights, you guys, you don't get to cherry pick. If you're against anti Semitism, then you have to be against Islamophobia, homophobia, racism, and down the line, also class warfare. And so this kind of cherry picking because of who donates to Hakeem Jeffries? Apac. APAC donates to Hakeem Jeffries. The people who preach against, against anti Semitism should be joining Zoran Mandami and standing up against the Islamophobic attacks on him. He has not said anything disparaging about Jewish people. He stands with them in solidarity. And this type of crap is so, so Disgusting to me. And it is a cancer within the Democratic Party. We lost these last two elections to an idiot because of these centrist policies. And you're being beholden to special interests, and by God, it's not going to happen again. You can either be a part of the problem or a part of the solution. When we can clearly see with our eyes and clearly hear with our ears exactly what's happening with Israel and Gaza. We're not stupid. Your base is smarter and y' all are going to have to adapt or get the out.
- [31:49]
Sagar Enjeti
I don't know.
- [31:50]
Krystal Ball
I love this lady. I. I love this lady.
- [31:52]
Sagar Enjeti
I'll confess. I don't get it. You know, it's not. Not for me, is way I would put it.
- [31:56]
Krystal Ball
What do you disagree with either? She's going in, she's cooking.
- [31:59]
Sagar Enjeti
Oh, the Democrats lost because of centrist policy. Yes, yes. Yeah, that's right. It was a centrist policy to offer free Medicare to a bunch of illegal running around immigrants.
- [32:07]
Krystal Ball
Liz, that was brilliant.
- [32:08]
Sagar Enjeti
A brilliant idea. I mean, listen, I understand that's the nice leftist critique.
- [32:13]
Krystal Ball
It's true. Commonwealth was never doing better than when she was talking about, like, price gouging and she was getting attacked for price control.
- [32:19]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay, well, you could cherry pick that as on if we want to ignore some of the borders crossing stuff that she was talking about.
- [32:24]
Krystal Ball
Bernie Sanders is the most popular politician in the country.
- [32:27]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay. Again, we will see in the future if a Democrat runs and wins on decriminalized border crossings and amnesty for everybody and bringing Lia Thomas and all those other people back, I will happily eat my words. I do not think that's ever gonna happen. You're idiots if you think that it.
- [32:44]
Krystal Ball
Is personally, but there's a difference between economic and cultural. Like the reason.
- [32:49]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, but you can't ignore that.
- [32:50]
Krystal Ball
That's the reason that Bernie is so popular and the reason Zoron is so popular. The reason AOC's popularity is very high now at this point is because they have focused in on these economic issues and because they fricking stand for something. I mean, that's the thing is, like, I think so much of the issue by issue checklist is the wrong way to look at politics.
- [33:09]
Sagar Enjeti
I don't disagree with it.
- [33:10]
Krystal Ball
People liked Zoron because he stood for something and he was willing to fight for it, even when it was uncomfortable and even when it was like, oh, my God, you're gonna get attacked over that. And that's what Trump understood. I mean, Trump ran. Trump is doing all kinds of stuff that is so Unpopular. Ran all kinds of stuff that is so unpopular, like pardoning the J6 rioters. Polls at like 2%.
- [33:28]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, but that wasn't a central case. But he.
- [33:30]
Krystal Ball
Why does he get away with it? He gets away with it because people get the feeling, oh, he stands for something. Now it's kind of bullshit because he's. Whatever. We could put that aside. But that's what is so revolting about these like poll tested centrists. Always the finger in the air, always. Everything's got gotta be focus grouped. Everything is calculated and calibrated. That's what people are disgusted with. And I think, you know, that's. And that is the centrist way. There was a Morning Joe clip where he was asking Tom Suozzi, who I'm actually trying to get on the show, who I want to talk to, wrote an article in Wall Street Journal about Zoron, like anti Zoron, whatever. But he was like, how come none of the centrists can be popular the way that Zoron and AOC and Bernie can? And this is why it's not even so much about exactly where they are. They feel like they stand for some. Same thing with Jasmine Crockett, all kinds of policy issues. He feels like she's actually willing to fight for something. And that's what I'm talking about with the Democrats.
- [34:22]
Sagar Enjeti
I don't disagree with a word you said about that. I just think, I mean, we should not overread it into being like, no, actually like trans swimmers or whatever is popular. But is that what I mean?
- [34:33]
Krystal Ball
That's not what Zoron ran on.
- [34:34]
Sagar Enjeti
No, I agree. And that's smart, right? Mr. Zoron, who is wearing shalwar kameez pointing his middle finger up at Christopher Columbus in 2020. And Mr. Deef on the police put a suit on and stopped acting like an idiot. And I think that's actually a smart takeaway for a lot of future aspiring left politicians is being a moron, twitch poster or whatever and acting like that is actually not the way to get elected. Now you can not disavow that. I think that's fine. You shouldn't, because then you look weak. But the emphasis on issues is actually pretty important while it's still supposedly standing for something. And I just think misreading kind of of where that goes is an important probably lesson for the left. Like, you know, John Fetterman was held up as this like leftist, like, look where that all went. You know, this idea of like dirt.
- [35:24]
Krystal Ball
Bag is he's like a. I Mean, he's like, literally brain damaged. He totally changed his ideology. Sucker.
- [35:30]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay, but if Zora, he's not the.
- [35:31]
Krystal Ball
Same person at all.
- [35:32]
Sagar Enjeti
Right? But he was celebrated for this, like, dirt bag identity. And it's like, no, the most popular left politician in the country put a suit on, acted like a normal guy, and spoke in very accessible language, specifically around on economic issues. Also, while not disavowing his ridiculous left past. That's an important lesson. And I think that also fits with how renegade politicians should actually look and act in the future. That's all I'm saying. I'm just saying with this woman or this whole what's left thing, I could see how that could also be read in completely the wrong direction by a lot of people who are trying to run for office, when in my opinion, Zoron, by looking and acting and speaking in a reasonable way, which are in some ways called unreasonable policies, made it so that he could become elected. I would also point out to Bernie, I mean, Bernie believes some really crazy shit, but he speaks in a different way and has always worn a suit. He's the consummate politician. And that's an important lesson. I would say AOC as well. The more that she has acted like more of a consummate politician and more of an elevated type figure that has made her more popular amongst the Democratic base outside of the original Chapo Trap House left. That's like, acting like them, in my opinion, is not the way to any sort of electoral success.
- [36:50]
Krystal Ball
I hear your point. I think there's also a question of, like, what's authentic to you. You know, like, Bernie is very, like, in his suit and rumpled and his hair all over the. Like, that is Bernie, you know, and Zorin felt very authentic here. And I think you're right that the fact that he centered his camera campaign around affordability, which was clearly the right thing to do, and made that the centerpiece when people are freaking out about, oh my God, free buses. And you've got like 75% of New Yorkers who are like, yes, free buses.
- [37:14]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, smart.
- [37:15]
Krystal Ball
Yes, exactly. And so that is absolutely. My theory of politics is that's why you should put those economic issues front and center. And because that is actually the center of the country when you look at where the polling is, when you look at what people usually vote on. So, you know, it's. And it's critically important to have credibility on those issues. And I think people felt like he did and would at least fight for the things that he did.
- [37:38]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, I think He's a good lesson for all renegade politicians actually is that to dress up and almost act more composed than your opponents. You know, when somebody else is talking about anti Semitism and you're sitting there talking about New York City, you're wearing a suit, you don't seem all that unreasonable. That's actually how you win. That's the FDR story. I mean, if you really look at a lot of the people who came up from behind, like the way that they do it is specifically by kind of outclassing the competition. And so yeah, I mean, I think it's a very important lesson for a lot of people. I do think he's gonna win. And as long as he stays on that and if he actually governs in any remotely way like that, as difficult as it will be, I think he'll be quite successful. It's a pity for him. He's not born in America.
- [38:15]
Krystal Ball
He should be. I know he'd be a great candidate.
- [38:17]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, I mean if he has the guys, if he won within six months he should have announced and he would have been able to do it.
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- [40:19]
Sagar Enjeti
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- [40:26]
Krystal Ball
Let's go and talk to Israel so or speak about Israel. BB Netanyahu was in town this week for the third time. Apparently favorite foreign leader.
- [40:37]
Sagar Enjeti
That's right.
- [40:37]
Krystal Ball
Come to visit again and he got asked. He did a couple interviews including apparently a sit down with the Nelk boys. We'll get to that in a moment. But he was asked this question that was kind of interesting response about whether or not dealing with Trump is different than dealing with Biden given that both of them were quite willing to fund and support a genocide. Let's go ahead and take a listen to his response.
- [40:55]
Sagar Enjeti
Did it feel very different dealing with.
- [40:57]
Representative
President Trump as opposed to President Biden.
- [40:59]
Sagar Enjeti
As well as the Democrats?
- [41:02]
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Is this a serious question? Yeah, it has been different. I think everybody said that they wanted to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, but it's not what you say, it's what you do. It's what you do. And ultimately leaders are tested by what they do.
- [41:20]
Krystal Ball
And at this point I think it's fair to say Trump has been different from Biden because he Bibi wanted that attack on Iran under Biden and he got it with Trump. So he has gotten more of what he wanted at this point under Donald Trump and which is why he nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
- [41:40]
Sagar Enjeti
Yes, definitely. Well, I mean it's all just a matter of gradations, right? Like Biden and basically backed him to the hilt and always said I disagree with him privately but bear hugged him in public. Bibi at the same time is trying to recapture the Trump base and maga. Let's put this next one up on the screen. Apparently we mentioned this. He chatted with the Nelk boys again. I'm calling on the Nelk boys to release their episode immediately. We can't just be having world leaders on and not release it. And also hopefully ask him maybe an Interesting question or two. I actually do think this could be a problem for the Nelk boys because if they just let BB come on and blabber like, I think that would be a misreading of YouTube and of young Republicans. That's just me. That's my opinion.
- [42:23]
Krystal Ball
But they're probably going to just let him.
- [42:25]
Sagar Enjeti
No, that's. I'm saying obviously, right.
- [42:27]
Krystal Ball
I mean I'm not a milk boys consumer, by the way.
- [42:30]
Sagar Enjeti
Neither am I, just to be clear.
- [42:31]
Krystal Ball
My understanding is they just sort of shoot the shit.
- [42:34]
Sagar Enjeti
They mostly shoot the shit.
- [42:35]
Krystal Ball
Adversarial interview.
- [42:36]
Sagar Enjeti
They had Trump on. You know, I remember like the Trump was one of the first people to ever have Trump on. He talked for like three hours and stupid conversation. But what they don't seem to understand is if you look at every prominent right wing YouTube creator, the vast majority are gonna have a very different take on Israel than a traditional GOP politician. I can think of two exceptions which are Ben Shapiro, I'll let that one.
- [43:01]
Krystal Ball
Whose popularity has fallen off, by the way.
- [43:04]
Sagar Enjeti
Well, I mean look, he's still a big show. We gotta give it to him. He's one of the top 10 political political podcast. I'm not gonna sit here and say he's a nobody, but he's got some competition. Dave Rubin, those two, that's basically.
- [43:14]
Krystal Ball
It's also fallen off.
- [43:15]
Sagar Enjeti
That one is obvious. But pretty much if you look at. And if you look at the biggest ones, Tucker Carlson, I was just there. He let me go off on Israel. He basically agreed with me on everything. Candace, Tim Pool. Tim is complicated, I guess on Israel, but he has people on or at least who are critical. And so what I would put.
- [43:34]
Krystal Ball
Pontos is a rising force.
- [43:36]
Sagar Enjeti
Well, he's not on YouTube, but yeah, in the online.
- [43:38]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [43:39]
Sagar Enjeti
Ecosystem it is more of a Twitter thing in my opinion. But yeah, I mean he's got somewhat of an audience. But my point is like if you look at all of those things kind of together, it points in a pretty clear direction. All the polling backs us up for young Republicans. If you look at the so called podcast bros and all that, look at Theo Von, look at Schultz, look at Rogan. I mean not pro Israel. Tim Dylan, Tim Dillon. Right. So if you look at the audience and kind of the way that those people are all kind of trending, it's not in the direction of having a shoot the shit happy dad conversation with Benjamin Netanyahu. That's the way I would put it.
- [44:17]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [44:18]
Sagar Enjeti
And that's why it's a big mistake in my Opinion if you don't, if you have him on and you just kind of let him get away with something like that.
- [44:22]
Krystal Ball
Correct.
- [44:23]
Sagar Enjeti
And in the context of Epstein too. Again, the Epstein story is a massive story online. Massive. It was entree point for millions of people into politics, as Ryan said. And if you don't ask them about something like that, I just think, I just think you look like a total joke. Now I'm prejudging I should make clear if they do, I'd be happy to say it. I'll play the clip here on the show Steiny, I'll sing your praises and the rest of you guys. But something tells me that at the very least, even if they did, they're probably not gonna ask the requisite follow ups that they should.
- [44:50]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I mean, here's the thing. It's like, it's not about like, oh, you shouldn't platform Netanyahu. No, actually you should.
- [44:54]
Sagar Enjeti
Well, I would love to.
- [44:55]
Krystal Ball
I would love to interview any world leader, especially one that has such a significant grip on our foreign policy. Absolutely. But then it's okay, well what do you do in that conversation? And so yeah, if they approach it like they have their other interviews where it's just like, oh, we're gonna like shoot the shit and basically like normalize and humanize this genuine monster, I mean it is, you would be hard pressed to find a bigger absolute villain in my lifetime than Netanyahu. And so I think there in some of these people's minds there's an inability to distinguish from being like edgy and countercultural and going against cancel culture or whatever and giving a platform to a genuine monster who is doing a genocide every single day. So that's the piece here that just, to me, it speaks to such a sick culture that this is even a possibility. We're gonna talk about this with regard to the Trump administration sanctioning Francesca Albanese of the UN for her exposing and calling the carpet companies that are complicit in this genocide, et cetera. We've lost the ability to distinguish just basic right from wrong. That's what it feels like to me. And look, look again. Look, if they hold him feet to the fire and whatever. Okay, fine, I'll be happy to say good job guys, way to go. But I do feel like we're just in this up is down era where. Go ahead and put the D3 up on the screen. This is so sick to me. US issued sanctions against UN investigator probing abuses in Gaza. So we've had Francesca Albanese on the show she has a special rapporteur from the UN for the west bank and Gaza. She has issued a number of reports about the ongoing genocide there that have been incredibly important. Her most recent one I think was in some ways the most provocative. Cuz as I said before, she really called on the carpet all of the companies that are profiting from this. I mean, we're very familiar and very acquainted with the way in which wars are profitable. And there are many individuals who have become wildly rich off of war profiteering. Many of them live within 15 miles of where we sit right now. I don't know that people have thought as much about the way that this genocide is incredibly profitable. And she talks about Palantir, Lockheed Martin, Google, Amazon, IBM, Caterpillar supplying those bulldozers that we've seen. And so she has really, she has really been one of the most principled and courageous actors, I think, out of this entire conflict. And so to sanction that individual because they dare. And the specific reason is because of her work exposing this and her support for the charges against Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, by the way, at the International Criminal Court. It's just incredibly, it's incredibly sick. And Sagar Trita Parsi was pointing out that at the same time we're sanctioning this person who was genuinely trying to stand up for innocence in the world, the US is giving a total pass to the guy who was the Syrian leader and taking his former, his terror organization off of the terror lift and granting them sanctions relief, et cetera. And so this is one of the things that has been the most sort of, I guess, spiritually disturbing to me at this time is the vilification of people who are trying to stand up for basic things like, hey, we shouldn't be complicit in a genocide. And this connects the Zora and Mamdani conversation as well and the celebration of genuine, an uplift of like genuine terrorist racist monsters.
- [48:43]
Sagar Enjeti
Well, I would just look for me. And this is the fundamental difference is to me, why are we sanctioning somebody who is investigating Israel? It's like that's what the full force of the US empire is being used at this point to go after Francesca Albanese for issuing reports about the Israeli government. And then Andor, I mean, that's fine, but it's one of those things where it's preposterous in this particular time to go after the. I mean, by the way, just so people understand what US sanctions mean, it means you can't do business with any bank that does Business with the United States, it's basically like being cut off from the financial system. Isn't she an Italian national? That's gonna cause some serious issues. Like I don't even know if you can have a bank account at some of the places. You may not be able to credit card, you may not be able to have a phone plan. Like I'm talking just so people understand what it actually means to be sanctioned by the United States of America. It's a very, very serious thing. We're doing it basically to protect somebody who is going after the Israeli government. I mean, look, I like Francesca, we had her name.
- [49:41]
Krystal Ball
She is going after us as well.
- [49:42]
Representative
Sure.
- [49:43]
Krystal Ball
But we're so involved.
- [49:44]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay, fair. Yeah. I would just put it again as like a priorities thing for like this is really what deserves sanctions when again we're going to point out the hypocrisy of US Support here now for the Israeli backed Al Qaeda leader in Syria. And just broadly, I mean, it's about the priorities. So for example, we're recently suing Harvard University for more of these like antisemitism allegations. I actually have that. Can we put D5, please, up on the screen? The Trump administration is attacking Harvard's accreditation and a battle against the Ivy League school. And it's specifically about the indifferent standard for the federal discrimination law. Basically saying that they had indifference to the safety of Jewish students on campus. Why? Because they allowed people to protest the state of Israel. That is about a hijacking of the US Legal system. The only reason why, I mean, I just think a lot of the moralism and all the stuff around this, it doesn't hold up because this is America. We're a global empire. The Syria thing is a perfect example. We often back dictators and people who do horrible things around the world. Like the idea we're only gonna be doing business or whatever with moral countries is kind of ridiculous and preposterous. The point then is to just have some sort of a consistent standard about who we sanction or not. And it's obvious here that our sanctions regime is being used as a tool basically on behalf of a foreign country in addition to our federal government. And I think that is actually what is more of a bipartisan. Not bipartisan, but it's an appeal that can really get two people. Whereas, I mean, and again, you know, no offense to my friends on the left, but it's like this constant like moralism. Like people don't necessarily want to hear that whenever they're. People don't necessarily want to approach international relations that way when it's obvious that it's not a realistic way to conduct relations with the entire world.
- [51:30]
Krystal Ball
I totally disagree with that because, I.
- [51:32]
Sagar Enjeti
Mean, that's the only thing that's popular on the left.
- [51:34]
Krystal Ball
No, no, no.
- [51:34]
Sagar Enjeti
Most people on the right are just upset that we're so obsessed with Israel.
- [51:37]
Krystal Ball
No, but no, I don't think think that's true.
- [51:39]
Sagar Enjeti
I do think it's true.
- [51:40]
Krystal Ball
I mean, I think that's part of it. I think it's also partly like, just like a strain of brazen anti Semitism of the world, et cetera. It's true. I mean, you can't deny that that's an element of it. But let me say. Let me say your reading of the American public, I think is totally wrong because the reason that the polling on Israel has shifted so dramatically is because even if the US Government is and has always been full of shit on any sort of concern for human rights, the American people were not full of shit. Like, they actually believed that we should be a force for good in the world. Like, they actually think thought of this country as like, you know, oh, yeah, we mess up, but in general, like, we're the good guys. We're the good guys. And so what has profoundly changed the American public's conception of Israel and of the Palestinians is seeing these atrocities day after day after day where it's like, how can it be our tax dollars that are being used for these bombs to murder babies? I'm agreeing with women, and it doesn't sound like you're.
- [52:47]
Sagar Enjeti
No, what I'm agreeing with is the complicit in terms of us selling them the arms. If this was happening independently, I actually don't think it would be nearly as big of a thing here because, I mean, look, there's atrocities literally all over the world. I mean, but that is the Azerbaijan, you know, being here. Amazing.
- [53:00]
Krystal Ball
But you're talking about that as like, you know, like it's. The morals of it are just completely irrelevant. And saying that for most Americans, that's completely wrong. I don't think that's true at all. I think the morals are incredibly central because it's so at odds with what people want to believe about this country and the sense that, you know, in general we're like the good guys in the world. And so, yeah, I think the morality of just like mass murder of, of women and children and complete destruction, I think that is quite central to the way that public opinion has formed around us.
- [53:35]
Sagar Enjeti
What I'm trying to say is that if it weren't for the US Role in enabling it, I don't think it would be nearly as central of an issue here in the United States. And that's because I know for a fact that there are literal atrocities happening all over the world. And I would also caution people, this whole good guy narrative, that's what leads to Libya. Oh, we gotta go and protect some Libyan civilians. Yeah. Now we collapse the government and Gaddafi got killed. That's what leads to Saddam Hussein is a bad guy. Like, acting in that way is actually a terrible, terrible foreign policy. That's what responsibility to protect and all of that is built around has led to some of the worst humanitarian disasters, actually, in terms of the fallout of acting on that way. So I would really caution people not to go down that path.
- [54:13]
Krystal Ball
That's actually even indicative in and of itself of the way that Americans think about these things. Because those, like, good instincts of, like, we should stop the Russians invasion, we should support women and girls in Afghanistan, we should make sure the Iranian people can be free or whatever. Those, like, deeply moral instincts are often weaponized to actually, like, create mass chaos, carnage, death and suffering. You know, there's no doubt that Afghanistan would be better if we never did any. Iraq, you know, certainly Iran. Absolutely. You know, and so I think that actually, actually speaks to the desire of most Americans to be the good guy, to feel like, okay, we're a force, generally like a benevolent force in the world and trying to be on the right side of history. And so you're right, that can absolutely be weaponized here. But I mean, that is very much at the center of what has caused people to change their views on Israel is just seeing the horror and wanting it to stop.
- [55:15]
Sagar Enjeti
I agree.
- [55:16]
Krystal Ball
And not wanting to see in their timeline every day another, like, blown up baby, that is blood on our hands and every taxpayer see.
- [55:24]
Sagar Enjeti
I agree. I just think that the outrage is from me and just from what I've observed comes down to tax dollars and then the diplomatic cover of the full force of the US Empire to enable this from happening. But let me just give a hypothetical. If this were happening without a single dollar of US Support, then what would it be? I mean, like, what would the implication of that be? It would lead to what I just described. What, we're gonna bomb Israel to stop? I'd say no, that's ridiculous. You know, that's not something that most people should do. We shouldn't do that on any country because that could lead you to the same Libya type of destruction that's happened in all these other places, to the extent here that the outrage from the American people, which is correct in my opinion, is that we're not only enabling but we're actively providing cover for supplying and in many cases encouraging something like this from happening. So that's kind of, I think that the nuance is important there. And so, you know, again, if I point to the right, like I think a huge portion of the why the American right in particular has moved against us. And I still think this is part of the left critique of this as well, is look at the level of obsession and money and government policy that our government is being used on behalf of this foreign country, which also is enabled and committing these immoral acts on an uncivilized nature. But it is not, because it's not. But all of it kind of traces back to the level of obsession and the support from us. It's not about the individual act itself, except in some rare cases, there are great humanitarians all over the world who are, you know, the Congo or South Sudan or Kosovo and all these other things. But for example, if we were to look back to the Serbian intervention from NATO that was done under the exact same terms, it was terrible idea, didn't work, actually led to pushing Russia away. I would give that as a great example of why we should not get involved in particular if the United States is staying out of it. And yes, I understand that sounds callous, but look at Ukraine, look at Libya, look at Kosovo, look, I mean Kosovo, I mean, it's a disaster. Look at what happened with Serbia, look at Iraq, look at Afghanistan. Nobody's better off off because of the great moral US Empire. So this is, I caution from talking in these types of terms because I've also seen it be weaponized. I don't know if you were here, but I talked about how Elie Wiesel's son went on Fox News and used his father's legacy to say that we should bomb Iran. Cuz he said, my father was always very upset that the United States never bombed the death camps. And that's why this genocidal regime, America has to come in and tonight's like, whoa, hold on a second. We can't be putting that type of standard in terms of how the US should operate. And so I just think defining the terms in terms of defining the terms of US Support us protecting these people also obviously blatantly hypocritical on all of this and trying to have some sort of consistent standard of look, we do what's good for us and yes, there's tragedy all around the world, but, but at the end of the day we're just gonna pursue our own interests. That seems to be the middle ground for a real American foreign policy that most people can't get behind.
- [58:32]
Krystal Ball
In the case of Israel specifically, that's also true that they just would not be able to do what they're doing with it.
- [58:38]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, that's also objectively correct. Very true.
- [58:41]
Krystal Ball
I mean they couldn't fight whether, fighting a war on like six different fronts right now, like you can't do that. They are completely shielded from the consequences of their actions because of us. And so yeah, I do think Americans are much more deeply invested in this particular number one, because the horror is just, you know, I do think it is the worst atrocity that we have seen in our lifetimes. But number two, certainly because it's our bombs, it's our dollars, we are the baddies, we are the bad guys here. And I think that's why it's so deeply painful to so many people and why you've seen so much of a shift on the, you know, the sort of normie liberal Democrats and also some especially among young people on the right.
- [59:24]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, and let that be a good lesson because that's about how the most moral outcome can actually come from saying no. So for example, if we didn't provide Israel all of the support, then they wouldn't do this and it actually would lead to a better outcome.
- [59:38]
Krystal Ball
They would have to reckon with the, you know, the realities of themselves as a small nation and in this region and trying to get along with your neighbors and, you know, not piss everybody off.
- [59:46]
Sagar Enjeti
Look at Africa, they've got a bunch of small nations. Yeah, they fight each other sometimes. Mostly they have decent enough relations. Yeah, Every once in a while a war breaks out. We don't go shipping weapons all around into the region and they figure it out for themselves. Let them do that. There's nobody stopping. There will probably be better relations between Israel, Iran, there will probably be a two state solution, especially if we push things in a more of a restraint minded direction. And that of course would lead to a more moral outcome. That's all I'm saying is just, I can see, see, I've seen this road go way too far under Samantha Powers the responsibility to protect doctrine. And I do always worry about setting some standard from the United States as having to be the world's policeman for good, you know, abroad. And I've seen that hijacked in a really, in a horrible way in the past. So I want people to like, define their terms around Gaza and Israel very specifically to make sure that it's not hijacked by somebody you know sometime in the future because it can lead in a very, very dangerous direction. That's all I was trying to say.
- [60:45]
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- [62:46]
Krystal Ball
All right, let's talk about Amazon.
- [62:47]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, let's do it. This is the final thing that will end which is very important for our economy. Me. Let's put this up there on the screen. And Amazon Prime Day sales are now off 41% on the first day. Their brand advisor says. Needless to say, that's a little bit of a disaster there for the company. But it's actually kind of an interesting story if we think about what it means for E commerce tariffs and also consumerism, which is unfortunately the backbone of the United States economy. What they point out here, here is that Amazon took a massive gamble this year by expanding Prime Day summer sales to four days from two, betting that the extension would give, quote, shoppers more time to navigate millions of the deals on its sprawling store. But the stakes right now, the results right now are grim, raising the stakes for the next couple of days. Online sales are down some 41% compared to the start of Prime Day just last year. The prolonged event has encouraged shoppers to actually do more treasure hunting, meaning that they're actually getting in some cases better deals for them, but not good for Amazon. Consumers are browsing and loading up shopping carts, but postponing the pulling the trigger in case better deals emerge. Shorter Prime Day sales actually generated more urgency from shoppers who wish that or worried they were gonna miss their discounts. And broadly, it shows a couple of things. Number one is that people with the credit card balances, where they are, with the spending and the problems in the economy and all that, where they are right now, people are pulling back a little bit. It also shows that people are getting pretty desperate at a retail level to try and push inventory out the door. There's no other explanation for why they would expand Prime Day or whatever by four days except for two days. So if you put those two things together, while, yes, we have some top line numbers that look good, you know, the job numbers look okay, the inflation numbers, they look okay. The stock market, I think NASDAQ yesterday hit an all time high, mostly because of Nvidia, which is now a $4 trillion market cap. But underneath the surface, all of those little things still seem to look precarious in that direction. And especially if we're speaking today, as we did earlier, about the tariffs that are coming back into place from the Trump administration and the level of uncertainty at a consumer level. So it's the two track story of America where like, like earnings look good, Nvidia looks good, but then there's all of these weird canaries that are around that kind of demonstrate some caution for both the American consumer and American business as to their actual health. And by the way, reminder, at a fundamental level, the housing stuff is still a disaster and all of that to us.
- [65:27]
Krystal Ball
Oh yeah. I mean, the affordability crisis continues to pace and it is very real and it is shaping all of our politics here in other places around the world as well. Yeah, I thought one of the more telling statistics there was that people were loading up on those sort of lower purchase price to get dawn dish soap or whatever it is and sort of stocking up on that and not doing as much of the larger purchases I thought was an interesting indicator there. And it does track whether you can put E2 up on the screen. It does track with an overall slowdown in online shopping. So online shopping sees biggest slowdown in over a decade as tariffs disrupt E commerce with this was a CNBC report from just a couple of days ago. They described this as the most disruptive period in more than a decade. As a result of Trump's trade war and tariffs policy, online purchases for home delivery experienced double digit year over year declines across major categories, including office supplies down by 13 percentage points, sporting goods down 12 percentage points, cosmetics, furniture, home furnishings, large electronics each falling by 10 percentage points. And this analyst says this is the first widespread pullback in the online category growth in over a decade. Groceries were the only real exception to the negative trend. So basically since online shopping has become normalized, it's just been growing and growing and growing and growing year over year as more people switch from going to the store to purchasing from Amazon or wherever else. And so to see this pullback is quite a, quite a shift in trends. It is quite notable. And then of course fits with the Amazon Prime Day data as again, again a warning sign that people are kind of, you know, if there's a purchase they can put off, they're pushing it off into the future, wait and see what happens, sort of be able to conserve their resources for in case there's an eventuality in the future in which they're really going to, really going to need it.
- [67:21]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah. And actually right now, you know, with this again, it's always so difficult to tell. The travel numbers are actually pretty good, which usually means people are doing well. But actually some of the stuff that I've seen is that even with travel doing well is a lot of it is debt finance, a lot of it is people putting stuff on credit cards. And unfortunately, you know, these airline businesses are more credit card companies than they are actual airline companies. Almost half the revenue comes from credit cards and transactions. So it shows that like that's not the best indicator. Gas actually is doing quite well as of right now, luckily, despite the fact that we had that Iran crisis. So there are indicators in almost every direction. But I still think that affordability stuff and canaries like this are important to look at for the economic data. Don't forget that I mean, Trump in some ways is correct about the Federal Reserve. It's insane that the rates continue to be where they are. I mean, over 6%. I was looking today the average mortgage I think for even 750 credit scores and it was like 7%, which is crazy high. I mean, and it's one of those where actually a couple years ago in what was it when did the rate spike? 2022. Well, a bunch of people bought houses in 2022 hoping to refinance at lower rates and they believed that the refi would come in maybe like one year or two years or something like that. But they've been sitting there chunking money away on a 6, 7% mortgage now for like three years, which is, I mean that's a ton of money in terms of the amount of interest, interest that you're paying to the bank. And so a lot of these people who are hoping and kind of betting on a rate cut in the future in real estate are stuck basically with these huge mortgage payments. They either have to sell at a loss or crunch in other ways. So anyway, those are all things that I'm looking at and being like, I wonder, I just always wonder if and when this grand experiment is ever going to pop. Something about it just seems crazy to me that the NASDAQ hit the all time high. I know yesterday TSMC sales up 40% with semiconductors Nvidia $4 trillion market cap. I mean that makes Nvidia more than like the entire United Kingdom stock market put together. Maybe even the European Union actually. I'd have to go back and look. But yeah, something about it doesn't seem quite right even with all this tariff uncertainty. And there's always just seems to be like some small thing that could push things over the edge. That's just what I'm personally worried about.
- [69:43]
Krystal Ball
The stock market seems particularly disconnected from reality.
- [69:46]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, it just doesn't seem right, you know, it does not seem right to me right now.
- [69:50]
Krystal Ball
And apparently some of the indicators are that the large institutional investors have pulled back from equities. But you have retail that's very enthusiastic. And so that's part of what has like propped up and continued the stock market growth. And then if you look at like the dollar for example, or the treasury yield curve, you see a different story. Totally see sort of, you know, consistent increase in the treasury yield curve where you're having to basically pay higher interest in order to convince people that they should hold treasury bonds. And then you're seeing continued decline of the dollar again and again. And again, so some of the analysts I've seen have said those may be the places to look for more of an indication of what's really going on versus the stock market, which is just like, disconnected.
- [70:31]
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Sagar Enjeti
You know, the retail thing is a very interesting story because retail people are buying the dip, or buying the dip, we'll see, are buying into the market. But actually a lot of institutional money are in money market funds. I just saw a chart today. There's like $7 trillion sitting in a money market just collecting for 5% interest or whatever. So, I mean, you could read that two ways, which is that once the rates go down, they'll start buying back in. But I don't know, there's just a lot of weird stuff that is happening. Wanted to give you that update in terms of the economy, but I think that's it for today. Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate you. We'll have a Friday show on for you all tomorrow, so we'll see you then.
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