← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
7/17/25: Trump Says Epstein Files A Hoax, MAGA Pollster Dire Warning, Israel Bombs Syria, Markets Panic, Zohran Meets NYC Billionaires
01:13:37
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast.
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- [01:40]
Zoran Mamdani
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:47]
Krystal Ball
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [01:53]
Zoran Mamdani
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:04]
Krystal Ball
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com Good morning everybody. Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have? Crystal?
- [02:17]
Zoran Mamdani
Indeed we do. Trump making some more wild comments about Epstein and trashing his own supporters. We've also got some reaction to that. Alex Jones is now wondering if MAGA maybe is in fact a cult.
- [02:28]
Krystal Ball
He is asking.
- [02:29]
Zoran Mamdani
He's going through it. We'll share that with you. We've also got some interesting polling from some Republican pollsters in particular about how people are feeling about all of this. We have some very significant international news. Israel bombing Damascus, an extraordinary escalation there. Really wild situation. Complete psyop, effectively. We'll break it all down for you. What led to this and what they're saying Trump is flirting with firing the Fed chair apparently brought a bunch of Republicans in, reportedly even drafted a letter. But Jerome Powell remains in place as of right now. Zoran Mamdani sits down with business leaders in New York. Some interesting reaction to that. New York Times total whiff on another Democratic primary. This is kind of a funny and enraging story all in one. And we're gonna have Michael Tracy join us for a little debate on whether or not Epstein was an intel asset. I'm gonna play the neutral moderator. Obviously I'm on your side, but I'm gonna try to play the neutral moderator. So it's just a one on one rather than stacking the deck against Michael Tracy. But that should be a good one. He's going in.
- [03:28]
Krystal Ball
I like Michael. I personally think that he's being a contrarian for the sake of it. But we will keep it respectful and we will make it so that, look, I just wanna lay out the case and I'll have him respond to what that case is. Personally, I think he's against a lot of straw men. But before we get to that, thank you to everybody who's been signing up and supporting us@breakingpoints.com we've got a lot of people coming in on the Epstein story, which we are very, very glad to have you. We're doing as much work on this as we possibly can and it is great to be back here at the desk. We got some interesting stuff that's coming up. I was on the Flagrant podcast with Andrew Schultz. I think the podcast drops at some point today. And actually I also filmed something with the flagrant guys interviewing them about reflections on the Trump interview, promises some of their criticism, et cetera. So that will be dropping later on and that of course will be dropping first for our premium subscribers. So if you wanna watch that, you can go ahead.
- [04:18]
Zoran Mamdani
BreakingPoints.com Very excited to see all of that.
- [04:20]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it'll be fun. All right, let's go ahead and start with the Epstein story. So Trump is at this point, what is it? Quintipiling down, quintipling down? I think quintipple is the math factor that we're in right now. Basically trashing his own supporters, saying everybody that is interested in the story is stupid, is that they are falling for a Democratic plan, is that the files, to the extent that they ever existed were actually an Obama hoax. Here's what he had to say. He's dead, he's gone. And all it is is the Republicans, certain Republicans got duped by the Democrats and they're following a Democrat playbook and no different than Russia, Russia, Russia and all the other hoaxes. They're, they're started by the Democrats. Says, by the way, I think the biggest scandal, that's the scandal they should be talking about, not Jeffrey Epstein. The scandal you should be talking about is the auto pen because I think it's the biggest scandal, one of them in American history. I lost a lot of faith in certain people. Yeah, I lost because they got duped by the Democrats. The Democrats are good for nothing. They've done a terrible job. They almost destroyed our country. Would you consider appointing a special counsel to investigate the Jeffrey Epstein investigation? I have nothing to do with it. So that last part is very important. First of all, you know, basically saying it's an Obama hoax and I had nothing to do with it. Initially there was some maga cope basically saying don't worry, he's gonna appoint a special prosecutor. Seems to be basically drifting very far away from that. But I mean we gotta combine this really with the actual truth social post that he made yesterday which really, really trashed a lot of his supporters. Let's put this up there on the screen. Here's what he writes. Quote, the radical left Democrats have hit pay dirt again. Just like the fake and fully discredited Steele Dossier, the lying 51 intelligence agents laptop from hell which the Dems swore had come from Russia. No, it came from Hunter Biden's bathroom and even Russia, Russia, Russia scam itself. A totally fake and made up story used in order to hide crooked Hillary's big loss in the 2016 election. These scams and hoaxes are all the Democrats are good at. It's all they have. There's no good at governing. Okay, I'm gonna continue. Now their new scam is what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein hoax. And my past supporters have bought into this bullshit in quotes, hook, line and sinker. They haven't learned their lesson. And probably even after being conned by the lunatic left for the eight long years, I've had more success in six months, et cetera. He continues, what does he say these people wanna talk about with strong Prodding by the fake news and the success star of Dems is the Jeffrey Epstein hoax. Let these weaklings continue forward and do Democrats work. Don't even think about talking of our incredible and unprecedented success. I don't want their support anymore. Thank you for the attention to this matter. Make America great again. So he talks about his quote, past supporters have potted into this bullshit about how he doesn' their support anymore. And I mean, look, the guy's making it as clear as it gets, right? And I think again, you know, the reason why all this stuff kind of matters and talking about it all week is that the, you know, the prism of Epstein was one in which, you know, Trump successfully, I would say he seized on that along with a lot of the MAGA movement to show everybody how it was outsiders versus insiders. And it was very important. Right, because it fit with the deep state and you know, the prosecutions that were against him. And it was really like, you know, they're not coming after me, they're coming after you and these very, very high level people in power. And it was like talking about corruption and it revealed really in which the way the world worked and how they, you know, quote unquote, MAGA and the Trump movement and all of that was like this renegade band of outsiders coming in to destroy. And then really what you watch is like the complete flip that happens in their rhetoric and just becoming, you know, new boss, the same as the old boss. So I really can't think, I can overstate like how important that PRISM is. Like, no one is saying that this is the most important thing, but when you put it all together, when you put the Iran strikes, the Ukraine policy, the tax bill, so much of the way governance is happening, I mean look, if you're Maha or whatever right now, I'm not sure if people know this. RFK Jr. Just approved the Moderna vaccine for six months old. So I don't see a lot of Maha people calling him out.
- [08:39]
Zoran Mamdani
And there's like a big shakeup over there too.
- [08:41]
Krystal Ball
They just fired his chief of staff.
- [08:43]
Zoran Mamdani
To be honest with you.
- [08:43]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. The biggest win they have is that people can now drink cane sugar Coke. So congratulations, diabetics, you can now actually drink a can of Coke with 10 more grams or 10 more calories in it. Congratulations to everybody. Cause apparently that is a great Maha victory. The other one is they got artificial dyes out of ice cream because I didn't know that was the problem with ice cream is that artificial dyes, crystal are the problem in ice cream. Not the shitload of sugar that are in it that people ice cream are eating. Come on. Okay, congratulations. Oh, the Steak N Shake fries, which, by the way, I checked, have more calories. The beef Tallow shake and shake fry have more calories per serving than McDonald's fries. Now I'm gonna have all the seed oil bros in the comments. I don't care. Okay? I'll eat the McDonald's fries and the Diet Coke and all of that in the same amount, you know, and we'll compare our calorie content and then we'll check everybody. We'll take blood work and we'll look at our. We'll look at our way. I will guarantee you you're gonna be fatter and more disgusting if you continue to buy into this stuff. But my point is just like, if you look at all of these things, all these promises, all of this, like, renegade type behavior from the to all of this, like, insurgency, like, I'm not seeing a whole lot of real groundbreaking stuff that's happening right now. And I do think that this is beginning to erode some of Trump's support in some of these disparate coalitions. I will not sit here and say MAGA grandmas are abandoning Donald Trump. That's ridiculous. And that's just not really how it works. But you didn't win popular vote and some tens of millions of votes on the backs of MAGA alone. There's millions of people, specifically young people and all those as well, who really did buy into a lot of this vision because they were very upset about the direction of the cultural left. And now I think that they're very much up for grabs. So it's a big political opportunity. I think it's just very interesting to see the way that this shakeout of the last two and a half months has been, in my opinion. I thought Doge would kill Trump, like, really politically, but I actually think it's the Iran strike forward that has eroded so much of what people saw in this person. And now, like, the direction is pretty damn clear. You know, your first 200 days or whatever are over. In general, nobody really does anything after this point. As president, you're basically just managing more international crises, which worked out well the first time. So I think we can see the direction, you know, that the plane is.
- [11:05]
Zoran Mamdani
Pointed towards Iran, Ukraine, Epstein. Yeah, all in just several weeks, all in two months. Yeah. So, I mean, that's if you thought that he was gonna make good on those promises of no new wars and, you know, we're gonna end The Ukraine war, and we're gonna release the files. You've gotta. This has been certainly spinning. I do want to just pause on what he's actually saying here because it's easy to just be like, my God, this guy is insane. And he's just like saying all this wild stuff. But he is now consistently asserting that there are Epstein files. Remember Pam Bond? The memo they put on said, there is no incriminating client list. Case closed, it's over. We're moving on. Well, he's indicating there are files, but they were created by his enemies. And so they're a hoax. And it's hard to read that in any other way than he is sort of laying the groundwork to give himself an excuse if things come out that do point to him in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. And I mean, the bottom line is he's acting so guilty, and there's really no other explanation that makes sense for the insane way that he's behaving here. You know, throwing his. Slamming his own supporters, saying, hey, I don't even want your support if you're interested in this, and daring them to defy him. Now, some of them are already going along with it. We watched this interview that John Solomon did with him where he's not, oh, yeah, definitely. The Democrats definitely rigged it against you and they're definitely inventing things against you. So plenty of people and influencers will actually go along with this line. We'll see how many will ultimately buy it. But it seems very much like he is laying the groundwork to try to inoculate himself against potential damaging information coming out. So that's number one. And number two, as I've been going back through, I know you've been going back down the rabbit hole. And like I've been looking into, okay, well, what are all the Trump Epstein connections? And one of the things that I stumbled upon yesterday is a pretty. It's the sort of thing you're like, how is this not common knowledge? It was written up in a British tabloid. Actually, the tabloid that Ghislaine Maxwell's father had once owned before he died under also mysterious circumstances, wrote up that Trump, at age 51, was dating a 20 year old who he had been introduced to by Ghislaine Maxwell, who it later came out, had been an underage trafficking victim of Jeffrey Epstein. Trump dated that woman. And this piece also said that this was not the first woman that Ghislaine Maxwell had introduced him to. I mean, you go back and you look at the quote where Trump says, Infamously, I knew Jeffrey for 15 years. He likes beautiful women maybe as much as I do, many on the younger side. You can't tell me this man who was a fixture at Epstein parties in Manhattan, who was practically his next door neighbor down in Palm Beach, Virginia Giuffre, worked at Mar a Lago. That's where Ghislaine Maxwell met her. You can't tell me he didn't know what's going on because even there were all sorts of whispers and rumors in these circles about exactly what was going on because he wasn't exactly discreet about it. So when you think about that, then you start to think, oh, interesting that Trump owned these beauty pageants and bragged about going into the dressing room where the girls were getting dressed. Interesting. He owned a modeling agency which are known to be hothouses of underage exploitation and abuse. And then you see the way he's behaving here and the way he's trying to give him some sort of out if there is damaging information that comes out. I don't know, guys, y' all can draw whatever conclusions you want to draw, but the lines are all pointing in one particular direction. And last thing, Sagar, I'll get you to react to this. Megyn Kelly said something interesting too. And Emily actually pointed this out and I didn't really fully like, wrap my head around it when she said it. Megyn Kelly said, I have insiders who are telling me that the files were all set up to point directly to Trump. Now. Now, I guess there's a couple ways you could read that. One is just like, Trump's guilty. Another is she's also trying to indicate, like all the Democrats set him up. They rigged these files and inserted fake information about Donald Trump as if they, you know, if they were going to do that, like they wouldn't release that before he got reelected.
- [15:26]
Krystal Ball
Well, also, if that is true, then you can prove that that is true and be like, look, here's the paper.
- [15:31]
Zoran Mamdani
Trail, here's where they were.
- [15:33]
Krystal Ball
Or you could do a retrospective and you could quote, like make the files more fulsome. But yeah, I mean, list all of that is public record, basically. I mean, I didn't know about the 20 year old thing, but the rest of it, it's like all of it was kind of baked in. It's like, yeah, Trump is a sleazy old man that was basically baked into the public consciousness. I think everybody was willing to be like, okay, well, at this point, it's pretty clear track record of behavior. The divorces, the Tabloid behavior, et cetera. But his behavior over the last week or so has a lot of people being like, hey man, I don't know, this really could be like, it shows you something. There's a real, you know, there may be something there. And at the very least, like it's a cover up of some kind. For what purpose? It could be personal. I personally think a lot of it is intelligence related when you combine and it could be a combination of both. I don't know, the intel stuff just makes a lot more sense to me considering just the rabid pro Israel direction that we're going in right now.
- [16:29]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah, but that would make even more sense if they have something on him.
- [16:32]
Krystal Ball
And that's also possible.
- [16:33]
Zoran Mamdani
Anybody who tells you like, oh, this is a size show and this isn't important and people care about the price of eggs, of course people care about other things, no doubt about it. And we're covering other stories in the show. There are other things going on in the world. If Mossad has pedo blackmail material on the President United States, I think we should know that. I think that's probably a pretty important thing to know. So no, we can't just dismiss this story out of hand, especially after the way that Trump has responded to this in such a bizarre and inexplicable fashion and is now seems to be explicitly laying the groundwork to have some sort of excuse if something bad does ultimately come out. And let's also not forget that Steve Bannon apparently said previously going into 2016 that Jeffrey Epstein was the one person who he thought could nuke Trump's presidential ambitions.
- [17:23]
Krystal Ball
There you go.
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- [20:00]
Zoran Mamdani
Directly to Trump.
- [20:01]
Krystal Ball
Yes. I mean, she's like, hey, you said it's a hoax. So if. If it's a hoax, then why AM I serving 20 years in federal prison? Great question, isn't it? Let's also get to Alex Jones and some of the basically dissident. I don't know what you would call it, but people are speaking out and basically saying, okay, Trump, if this is the way that you wanna play it, then I'm basically out with you. Here's what Alex Jones had to say. He says, I'm not in a cult. You people that bring this up don't even deserve to be involved in this movement. You are excommunicata. You are. You are henceforth ex cathedra from the mouth of The God King. You are expelled from the Church of the Holy Golden Toad, Donald John Trump. Well, I was never in the Church of the Holy Golden Toad. I do like you being a maverick, standing up for the country. We have the same enemies. I respect your stamina and courage. Been a big cheerleader when I agree with what you're doing. But if I'm being excommunicated, let me be clear. I was never in your church to be excommunicated. So you can't excommunicate me because I was never in your church. I was never in a cult and I never said MAGA was a cult. I said a lot of people want it to be a cult. I was never in a culture. Basically calling Trump out, saying, listen, you're like some great God emperor. I mean, in some ways, Alex is correct in terms of it was never presented necessarily as a cult. But let's be honest about the way this politically has ended up working out and the way operationally it is. I don't know if. Did you guys cover the Ukraine thing yesterday? The poll, which is when told Trump's decision.
- [21:47]
Zoran Mamdani
Oh, no, we didn't cover.
- [21:48]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, this is a main. Just so people know, this is a new Echelon Insights poll and it was MAGA voters, when asked if they said, do you support sending more arms to Ukraine? The original answer was like the vast majority, no. Then when told Trump supports it, It's Trump's decision, 65% were like, yes. I was like, okay, so you actually are in a cult because you're.
- [22:08]
Zoran Mamdani
We saw the Iran numbers and this.
- [22:09]
Krystal Ball
Is where everything surrounds the whole, like, trust the plan. Like they genuinely only trust Donald Trump. There's no really getting around that. But I just want to caution again, everybody and there's a lot of Republicans who are like, look, he can do anything and he can get away with. I just don't think that that is true at a macro level. And there are a lot of people who are now talking about how Republicans are gonna take an absolute beating in the midterms. They probably were gonna anyways, even if this was a decent right enough administration just because of the way that political cycles work. But now you're really setting it up for demoralization. And it's not again, not the base, but these lower propensity voters who crawled out of the woodwork to vote for Donald Trump. So many people voted in the last election, never even voted voted before. Those types of people who were brand new Republicans. And there's always an opportunity every time some candidate's able to bring those people out and then actually convert them into like, sustained parts of your political base. They're not coming back for a variety of reasons. I think Epstein is actually a decent enough reason for one of them. And it connects to so many different tentacles in our foreign policy. But, yeah, how is Fox News and other people spinning it? They're like, well, actually, the auto pen.
- [23:16]
Zoran Mamdani
Scandal, that's the real.
- [23:18]
Krystal Ball
That's the real scandal. So Trump is like, like, hey, we need to move on. You know, there's little girls who are dead in Texas. How dare you ask me about Epstein. And that's why the auto pen scandal involving the last president, that's actually the biggest scandal in American history. Let's take a listen from Fox News. If you care about the Constitution and the rule of law, Trump is right. The auto pen is way more serious than Jeffrey Epstein because you could have a series of aides here who seized the power of the presidency and used it for their own purposes. Way more serious than Jeffrey Epstein. By the way, for all of our younger viewers, if you don't know who John Yoo is, John Yoo is the guy who was in the book White House, who authored all of the infamous torture memos and executive privileges for George W. Bush to expand his authority basically to the levels of a king. So in case you're wondering about constitutionality and the love expert on the rule of law there, 20 years ago, John Yoo was actually was a household name amongst a lot of Americans because they're like, hey, fuck this guy, just so people know who it is. So, yeah, just laying that out there. In terms of who they. It's amazing to me how you can whitewash your reputation and 20 years after authoring these memos and being a legitimate pariah in American society, and you can bring your way back and say, hey, by the way, actually, the auto pen scandal is a much bigger scandal than the Epstein thing. I mean, the auto pen thing. Sure. Okay, let's talk about it to the extent that it matters. It's really not about the auto pen itself. It's about Biden's senility. I'm fine with that. Okay, fine. Biden's doctor, what did he pleaded the fifth whenever he was before Congress? I agree that that's a huge problem. I'm totally on board. But in the words of Laura Loomer, who are about to show up soon, you can walk and chew gum at the same time. The Epstein one actually does seem a lot more urgent for today considering all of its foreign policy implications. Don't see a lot of people talking about that.
- [25:02]
Zoran Mamdani
It's one of the first times I really have seen the right and Trump specifically try and fail to change the subject. Usually they're very good at this. They have their media machine. The auto pen thing's gonna be a scandal. We're just gonna go in and go in and go in and get people to care about this. And it just hasn't really work down. So anyway, you've got that going on. I wanted to run something by you that I mentioned to Emily yesterday. I think it was this moment for Trump and the way he's asking his base to completely repudiate something they believed five seconds ago. The thing it reminds me of most is actually the grabber by the P word moment. Because think at that time you had these evangelical right Christian Republicans who were in the tent who were a little leery of Trump. Anyway, Mike Pence on the ticket and this comes out and he's asking them to turn on a dime from all of their outrage about Bill Clinton getting a blowjob in the White House and being the moral majority and family values, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. To turn on a dime and say, nope, this is locker room talk and we don't care. And you know what? They did, they did. Now there are some things that are different today. Number one, the media ecosystem is different. His coalition is a little bit different. Very different. Yeah. And he is potentially maybe a lame duck depending on whether he tries for his third term or whatever happens there. So there also may be people who are looking past him and thinking there is going to be a post Trump Republican Party. So that could create a situation that is different. But that is to me what rhymes the most with this moment where he is asking his own base to completely throw out the window long held core belief just to back him up and go along with him. It's almost like a test. The way that that was the only.
- [26:46]
Krystal Ball
Reason I think it's a little bit different is that, well, first of all, at that time he basically had something that he could offer them that nobody else would offer, where he literally said, I'm going to appoint pro life justices to the Supreme Court.
- [26:55]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah, that's right.
- [26:55]
Krystal Ball
And overturn Roe versus Wade.
- [26:57]
Zoran Mamdani
Right.
- [26:57]
Krystal Ball
So that's pretty different in my opinion. Also it's a little different as well because the maga, well, it's offering them.
- [27:03]
Zoran Mamdani
Cane sugar and the Coke.
- [27:04]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, but that's what I mean, that's not the same thing. That was their look. I mean, at that time, I know it's been a while. That was their number one priority. That's the only that a lot of these people voted on was pro life. That's it. So that doesn't really exist this time around. They can't offer them the same type of thing even then. I would say if you look at the Maga Coalition of 2016, the evangelicals were a small minority of it. They were not the MAGA base. They were the people who came over and more reluctant to come in. Most of it was working class whites who thought the whole story was stupid and bullshit. So I would put it like a little bit differently. The Epstein thing. The reason why I think it's different is, look, it's also been a long time since that. When was that story? 2016. So it's been seven years. Right. So since that, bro, is pop culture now? It was then, but it is like way more. It's just different. And that's part of the reason why I've been getting annoyed when people are like, oh, in the real world and all of that. I'm like, guys, the Internet actually is the real world to a certain extent in terms of this is the media now. This is where public consumption is on TikTok, it's on Instagram, it's on YouTube. I can guarantee you this is one of the most viral stories that I have seen in years. And not just on this platform, on every platform. And. And actually my interview with Tucker has more views than the Iranian president. Like, that's what I'm trying to give people an example of. I've literally never seen. I've got people reaching out to me who I haven't spoken to in 10 years about this. My point is just that this is capturing the attention of the country. Would I claim that it is the number one issue or any of that? Again, absolutely not. But in the same way that you're cartoonishly asking people to move on. And it's also the other key. The difference is that was before an election, that's when shits on the line. It's between Hillary and Trump. He's got three and a half more years to go. In a certain way, people who are speaking out are like trying to have a corrective and a push on the administration. So it's actually more like a power struggle in terms of like who gets to set the agenda and who doesn't. As opposed to, look, we have two choices. Sometimes you just gotta hold your nose and vote for somebody. Like a lot of people also did for Hillary. But yeah, I mean, that's not a terrible comparison. I would really more. I'm trying to think of anything else, and I can't really because. Because at the same time, he ran on releasing it, and it's not just him running on it, it's the entire MAGA apparatus.
- [29:23]
Zoran Mamdani
Right.
- [29:23]
Krystal Ball
And that's what makes it so stark.
- [29:26]
Zoran Mamdani
If you listen to him.
- [29:27]
Krystal Ball
Right. He never cared that much.
- [29:28]
Zoran Mamdani
He was always very squirrely.
- [29:30]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [29:31]
Zoran Mamdani
And that Fox News edit is now infamous where the way they edited his response to will you release the Epstein files? Was just, yeah, but then he goes, yeah, yeah, well, maybe less so. And then he goes on to give a bunch of Rio privacy. And I'm concerned about this and that and the other of why he actually probably wouldn't. And he was like, every time he got asked about it, he was squirrely in the same way. But there is no doubt that he flirted with all of those conspiracies, including the QAnon conspiracy, which was sort of like adjacent to this. That was like the bullshit made up version.
- [30:05]
Krystal Ball
QAnon was way dumber, of course.
- [30:07]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah, that goes without saying. It becomes like this idea of Pizzagate, QAnon, Jeffrey Epstein all gets lumped together as like elite pedophiles, mostly Democrats are like, running the world. And he flirted with all of this stuff. And so he certainly gave people the impression that he was gonna be on their side in this. He was gonna be the person, the white knight to ride in and expose all of the criminals and bring them to justice, whatever. And then people in his movement, like Dan Bongino, like Cash Patel, like JD Vent, they were very explicit about the files are gonna be released and this is gonna be a major priority.
- [30:42]
Krystal Ball
Well, he was explicit too. He said it, I think it was in his Lex Friedman interview. He's like, yeah, I'm gonna release all of it. He literally said that. I mean, you know, like, there's multiple clips of Trump of j. So the President, the Vice President, the FBI director, the Deputy FBI director, the Attorney General of the United States, multiple. I mean, I can't even think of the rest of the Trump surrogates, if you think about that. Like people directly involved in the campaign. Come on now. That's part of what makes this so galling.
- [31:05]
Zoran Mamdani
Well, and the people who, to your point, who are like, this is. Nobody cares about this. Are you kidding me? Americans don't care about some grand sex scandal involving potentially the president? You don't think they don't care about that? Have you met Americans and their tabloids?
- [31:17]
Krystal Ball
Were you alive in 1998, tabloid sensibility.
- [31:20]
Zoran Mamdani
I think they care, they're interested. I think you've got their attention.
- [31:23]
Krystal Ball
Right? If Lewinsky captured the. I mean, Lewinsky was the biggest door in the country for like 18 months. Just so everybody remembers. And also a little Lewinsky callback if we all remember when Bill Clinton got into a war with Serbia to distract the country from the Lewinsky scandal. So these actually can have some pretty big wrecks ramifications. Just saying.
- [31:42]
Zoran Mamdani
Before we go on to the other mag, I just want to mention that one more item to put on the list of strange things that are happening in the Trump administration. They just fired the Manhattan prosecutor who handled the Jeffrey Epstein and the Ghislaine Maxwell case. Now, this is someone, this is Maureen Comey. So it's actually Jim Comey's daughter. So in fairness, this is someone Maga has hated. And she also just handled the Diddy trial rather poorly as well. But you still have to ask why she's getting fired now when she is the one who handled both Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein's cases. She was the prosecutor.
- [32:17]
Krystal Ball
I agree that the timing is weird. It's what I told you I was like, to be fair, like Maga has hated her for years. They're like, this lady needs to be fired from the Department of Justice. And the Diddy trial is like the best excuses. Like you totally, you botched the entire case with the biggest charges against him. You would also say, I mean, if you look at not only the charges of, of Epstein, but really against Ghislaine Maxwell in the sdny, like that in my opinion is more part of the COVID up than anything else. Because the way that the case was set up was so that it only implicated Maxwell and Epstein and not everybody else. And they focus on these charges from like 1994 or whatever. So I don't know. I mean, I don't think she's innocent in all of this. But by the way, hey, Maureen. Her name's Maureen, right? Yeah, yeah, Maureen, you're free now. All right, come, let's talk. Let's give some interviews. All right. Don't just shut your mouth and become a resistance hero. If you have some information, tell us what you learned about the pressure from inside of the Justice Department. Won't hold my breath. Last thing here is just about kind of some of the MAGA reaction. Let's go and put this up there on the screen. So we got people like Laura Loomer. She's of course standing with Trump. She says Epstein is One issue of many. It's wild to me how many people can't walk and chew gum at the same time. You can ask for answers on Epstein while also not for allow it to consume. The only thing that you speak to about Trump is doing many great things on a daily basis. He knows how to walk and chew gum at the same time. But let's continue because there are some other examples here. People actually, you know, pushing back pretty hard. Here you got General Flynn, General Mike Flynn, who is a former national security adviser. He says this is where his argument went off the rails. It is not about Epstein or the left. It's about committing crimes against children. If you were part of an intel operation known or run by CIA, shame on them and those responsible must be held accountable. If there's any other country involved, then shame on them as well. If there are elites inside of our country that committed crimes against children, shame on them and they must be held accountable. Let's go to the next just to show people you got some various different like MAGA influencers and others here you have Trisha Hope. She says he just called supporters like me stupid who spent 10 years standing with him through thick and thin. This is what he has to say. Well, maybe he is right because I feel pretty dumb for standing with him all those years and I won't be doing it again. Epstein coverup. Let's go to another one here. This is from Evan Kilgore. I've been a loyal Trump supporter since 2016. I lost job, friendship's been smeared online, doxxed press charges on people who have stalked and harassed me for supporting him. If Trump doesn't want my support because I care about the Epstein files, then I'm done. Bye. So you can see. Look again. That's something I'm not ready to say yet. It's like some gigantic civil war or any of that. But it is certainly having some impact in support for the President and nonetheless, it's consuming all of tabloid media and of political media at a time when you really would want your attention focused elsewhere.
- [34:58]
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- [35:58]
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- [36:29]
Zoran Mamdani
Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.
- [36:33]
Krystal Ball
Still using yesterday's tech upgrade to the ThinkPad X1 carbon ultralight, ultra powerful and built for serious productivity with Intel Core Ultra processors, blazing speed and AI powered performance that keeps up with your business, not the other way around.
- [36:47]
Zoran Mamdani
Whoa, this thing moves.
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Krystal Ball
Stop hitting snooze on new tech. Win the tech search@lenovo.com Unlock AI experiences with the ThinkPad X1 Carbon powered by Intel Core Ultra processors so you can work, create and boost productivity all on one device. That's a good transition here to the polling intra Maga. So here I'm pointing somebody, a guy named Rich Barris. I've talked about him here on the show before. He is definitely more of like a MAGA aligned pollster. But one of the things that Rich does I think really well is try to keep his finger on the pulse of the MAGA base of Trump approval and specifically the Trump coalition. He looks at things very similar to I do. There's the MAGA base, then there's the Trump voter, there's the non traditional person. All of these people kind of come together and became the Republican party party in 2024 or at the very least voters for the Republican Party. So here's what Rich had to say about Trump's approval rating, how it continues to go down and cracks within the coalition. Let's take a listen. As it stands Right now, the voter groups where Donald Trump is now himself starting to hurt with those are the ones that Republicans need to bring into the fold. And just from the polling this month, here are a couple of groups that need to really stand out in people's minds. 18 to 29 who voted for Don Donald Trump, though some of his biggest decline this month came from that group, Hispanic men. All right. The groups where he did increase are kind of funny, Steve. Those who have a four year degree or more. Right. And that's great, perfect. That help offset some of the decline with quorum with his core voter and his 24 base. But it doesn't matter because they're still voting Democrat at the generic ballot by 10 points. So I mean, it just, it's like a pointless bump that's going to evaporate in a month or two anyway, even if it lasts that long. They're just happy he bombed Iran for now, to be honest. And they'll go back to disapproving of him. And what will be left is a weakened base. And that is something that people aren't understanding while they're again attempting to browbeat all of these different groups in a submission. 18 to 29 year olds don't care about what's going on all the way around the other side of the world. They didn't vote for him for that. I mean, it's just a reality that people are going to have to start to face. They're simply out of time. They can't afford to continue to carry on with business as usual. They, they had to convince these voters that they were becoming more like Donald Trump, not that Donald Trump was becoming more like them. They're out of time. I mean, so there are all these people, you know, the clapping seals and the rest of them, they're gonna clap their way right into an utter defeat. I mean that, that's, that's the reality. And by the way, this month Democrats took a lead on the generic ballot for the first time in our polling since Donald Trump's second presidency began. I think that's actually a very good way of looking at it all with the younger voters, with the rest of the types of the coalition. Also, let's now, there's been a great flip in political coalitions. What did Democrats excel at even before 2024, winning special elections in midterms. Why? Because it's highly educated, mostly like, you know, upper middle class people who love to vote and who are much more civically and politically engaged. The rest of the people, you know, the like Hispanics and the young guys and all these other guys, more working class folks, they only really pay attention during a presidential election. The rest of the time, they don't really give a shit. And that's a huge problem if you're walking into a midterm where what's the margin right now for the House? Two, three, something like that.
- [40:09]
Zoran Mamdani
Good luck.
- [40:09]
Krystal Ball
All right. Yeah, good luck holding onto that one. And the Senate as well actually has its own problems. So what he's pointing out are strips in the political coalition, all of these things that make it not only up for grabs, that will alter the balance of power. I also think everyone in Washington should start waking up to a reality of what does it look like when one or two houses of Congress, Congress are controlled by Democrats. I mean, I've talked about this with Doge, but now with Epstein. Any enterprising Democratic politician would be an idiot not to immediately announce an Epstein investigation on day one in 2027. And by the way, impeachment and all of that, that's already happening. Don't even get me wrong on that one. But my point is that the amount of political, institutional pushback, showdowns with the White House, House, from everything to funding the government to taxes to whatever, especially given the attitude of the base, is basically going to be analogous to how the Democrats were from 2006 to 2008 under George W. Bush, when he was also a lame duck president with a very, very low approval rating. Bush got nothing through the House or the Senate at that time. He was a pariah. They hated him. Congress basically said, screw you on almost every important decision decision that was happening. That's gonna be the political tenor of what those last two years look like. They can make your life hell. I mean, every Trump appointee, I hope you have a lot of money because you're gonna be paying private lawyers out the ass when you're testifying before Congress. Like, this is the reality that people are staring down and the Republicans are just like, don't seem to care. Well, Trump himself, I guess he never cared, but for personal reasons, if he doesn't even care about the party, your own presidency can be consumed, doomed by stuff like this. And that just looks more real every single day that we go forward.
- [41:51]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah, no doubt about it. I mean, I think Republicans just pretty much assume they're going to lose the House at this point.
- [41:55]
Krystal Ball
Okay, but you don't have to lose the Senate too. Like, yeah, yeah, it's a big difference.
- [42:00]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah, it could be possible at this rate. I just saw a poll you know, Virginia and New Jersey have their gubernatorial elections this year. Off year. The Virginia one in particular is typically seen as a bellwether. And you've got really lame Democrat Abigail Spanberg. She's like former ca, Whatever. Anyway, I'm getting those ads at my house and they're terrible.
- [42:17]
Krystal Ball
But my neighborhood is all in for Spanberger. There's signs everywhere.
- [42:20]
Zoran Mamdani
Apparently the whole state is, because I just saw a poll that has her up 12 points. 12 points on Winston Sears, who's a current, you know, elected statewide official.
- [42:28]
Krystal Ball
Young in by two points. That's a 14 point swing in five years. That's crazy.
- [42:33]
Zoran Mamdani
All right, so we'll see how that goes. But I think Abigail Spanberger's got to be feeling pretty good about where she stands at this point. The other thing I was thinking about, listening to Rich Barris talk there is where was Chat Trump's strength? His strength was with low information voters. Always the type of people who aren't listening to the show or watching CNN or even watching Fox News. The type of people who are watching, like the Ovan's podcast or, you know, Andrew Schultz or Tim Dillon or Joe Rogan or whatever while they're, you know, doing their job or driving the Uber shift or whatever. And to the contrary, of the people who want to say, oh, real people don't care about this. This is actually a story that really penetrates pop culture.
- [43:10]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it's easy. It's the easiest one that gets.
- [43:12]
Zoran Mamdani
Completely penetrates pop culture. I mean, all the late night shows, of course, all over it.
- [43:16]
Krystal Ball
Shane Gillis hosted the ESPYs last night. Epstein joked down and killed. Yeah, killed.
- [43:21]
Zoran Mamdani
You don't think people know about this? Give me a break. This is exactly the sort of issue that actually breaks through with low information voters. The very people who were the ones who put Trump over the top last time. So I think there has already been a lot of erosion with Trump among people who are really paying close attention and who were independents and they voted for him, but they weren't sure about it. What, whatever. I think you've already seen that erosion. But this cuts deeper because it does go to just pop culture and the sense of this guy, first of all, what is going on here? Like, what are you doing and why are you acting this way and what is actually going on? And second of all, you just lied to us to get a light. Like, you betrayed this notion that you're gonna be the outsider, come in and clean up things like total and complete bullshit. And, and look, it has always been bullshit, but this is such a blatant, obvious betrayal of how he positioned himself that it becomes impossible to ignore and to spin if you have a shred of integrity.
- [44:21]
Krystal Ball
I totally agree. Let's also put this next one up here. This is from Mark Mitchell, who works over at Rasmussen. And I follow these guys because, I mean, look, you can say a lot about biased pollsters and all this, but one of the things I like about following the quote, biased pollsters is that some of them actually do have some integrity. And here, this is from Rasmussen, one of the most Republican leaning polling outlets out there. And here's what Mark Mitchell has to say. Update. Looks like Trump approval has bottomed for the second term. And what he and Rich and these guys are warning about is just the absolute destruction that Republicans face in the midterms. But again, more importantly for Trump and his coalition in the future, for whatever that looks like. The other thing is, is like, let's say that Trump is a lame duck and he's done. Everyone's like, he's not gonna care. I genuinely don't believe that. I think he will be the most interact till the day he dies. He will be a God king of the Republican Party. It would be as if Ronald Reagan, who I guess kept his mind after he left his presidency and continued to wield his influence. Now, Reagan, you know, not only from his own personal issue, but believed in norms, even though I know that's cringe and was like, no, I'm done. I'm an old man, George, take the reins. You can do whatever you want to do. I'll respect that. You think Trump is gonna be sitting down in Mar a Lago. Let's say J.D. gets elected. He's gonna have to go down there once a month, all right, to get Trump truth, socials and all this other stuff to back him up. Because at the end of the day, the loyalty does not transfer. We've seen that a million times. There's affection, but not the loyalty. And so for any, like, if you continue to diminish and just bring things down to a MAGA type coalition, you put every future Republican in such a dangerous position where they can't piss off Trump, but to win, they can't also go in the direction in the loyalty that he demands, which increasingly that seems like what he's likely to do, of course, could be wrong. Only six, seven months or whatever into the first Trump administration, things are going all kinds of, of different directions. Remember, it's only, what, July. I mean, Biden's presidency didn't really bottom out until October, so there's still a long way to go.
- [46:29]
Zoran Mamdani
You know, it's like a few months.
- [46:30]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. We still got months and months to go, but things seem to be on track, you know, for where we are right now. We don't know what the future looks like.
- [46:38]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah.
- [46:38]
Krystal Ball
And, yeah, like, they. They need to pray for several things. We'll talk soon about the. The Fed and all of that. They need lower rates, they need a lot more housing, and they need inflation to go down, and they need the stock market to remain up. They've accomplished, I think, one out of four of those. So you need to land the plane, especially in the next two and a half years. And I just don't see a path forward.
- [47:01]
Zoran Mamdani
I think it's also, I agree with you that the idea. Trump is just gonna go away and live a quiet life at Marlowe. Okay, please look at who this man is. Even if he doesn't technically run for a third term, it will be his party until the day he dies.
- [47:14]
Krystal Ball
Absolutely.
- [47:15]
Zoran Mamdani
That's just how it is. And the other thing that is, I think, increasingly clear, both as you see, the warring factions over Iran and over Ukraine and now over Epstein, he is the only person who can hold this coalition together.
- [47:29]
Krystal Ball
Absolutely.
- [47:30]
Zoran Mamdani
He is the only one that can do it. And there's some similarities there with Obama, actually, where he never was able to translate his popularity over to other Democrats and over to the Democratic Party more broadly. And I think it's the exact same thing with Trump. When he's not on the ballot, Republicans have been losing an election after election after election. So the idea that he's gonna be able to just bequeath his popularity and his coalition to JD Vance or even his own son or whatever, I think that is. There's just no chance that they're able to pull that off. I totally agree, because no one else is Donald J. Trump, and that's just how it is.
- [48:06]
Krystal Ball
Look, remember, Obama literally was like, you need to act like I'm on the ballot and do 2016. People were like, yeah, I'm good, actually, so you can try. It never. Basically never works. And, yeah, it's a very, very important lesson, too.
- [48:17]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah, he literally said that in that election. Obama basically killed that Biden. I think at that point, you know, he was at his peak. He would have been a much better candidate than Hillary Clinton.
- [48:28]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, he had a much better.
- [48:29]
Zoran Mamdani
He had a better. He did have a better touch with working class people. He was more closely affiliated with Obama. That people had, you know, warm fuzzies. About it that that point. But anyway, I mean the point is just that he got his chosen successor, he did what he could to put her across the finish line and it's like no way. Even though I think if it was Obama who was on the ballot again, he would have probably won.
- [48:50]
Krystal Ball
I've done so many monologues about that. People can pull them from five, six years ago. I have all those clips of all the times that Obama was like, you need to act like I'm the person running on the ballot. And people were like, yeah, actually I'm good.
- [49:03]
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- [50:03]
Krystal Ball
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- [50:33]
Zoran Mamdani
Ah, come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.
- [50:37]
Krystal Ball
Still using yesterday's tech upgrade to the ThinkPad X1 carbon ultralight. Ultra powerful and built for serious productivity. With Intel Core Ultra processors, blazing speed and AI powered performance, it keeps up with your business, not the other way around.
- [50:52]
Zoran Mamdani
Whoa, this thing moves.
- [50:53]
Krystal Ball
Stop hitting snooze on new tech. Win the tech search@lenovo.com Lenovo Lenovo unlock AI experiences with the ThinkPad X1 carbon powered by Intel Core Ultra processors so you can work, create and boost productivity all on one device. All right, turning now to Syria, some extraordinary developments. Israel bombing the capital of Syria after major violence breaks out in Suwannee. We're going to get to all of the details, but let's just take a look at some of the video. I mean, it's absolutely extraordinary. You're watching a Syrian newscaster there broadcasting live from the Capitol. After, right behind her, you can watch Israeli airstrikes in the middle of Damascus. And by the way, these are not secret strikes like normal. These are claimed and public proclamations from the idf, including the command and control network of the Syrian General Staff as well as the Syrian presidential palace. So you're watching just. I mean, this is wild, like out in the open. And you may ask, so what the hell is actually going on here? Now, I've done my best to. It's very, very complicated. So everybody stick with us in terms of the exact TikTok of how this all went down. We gotta start at the very, very beginning. You'll remember that the Assad regime fell. Well, after the Assad regime fell, the Israeli government claimed a, quote, indefinite presence inside of Syria past the Golan Heights, further expanding their borders. Basically, the justification was they need to protect their own border at the Golan Heights as well as the Druze population who they have long had a close relationship with. Okay, so let's put things out that way. That's ever since the Israeli government or the Assad regime fell. And now the new power, Al Qaeda, is in charge of the state. After Al Qaeda kind of came into power of the state, there has been a tacit alliance between the Israelis and Al Qaeda. They met recently. There was supposed to be normalization between the two governments. Much of the sanctions from the US government were taken off. So everything seemed to be on a road of normalization of a tacit agreement where the new Al Qaeda government is going to recognize Israeli sovereignty over this new portion. All right, so let's, so let's start there. However, the Druze population, of course, is allied with Israel. And there's also been calls within Israel to basically further their attacks on the Syrian government. And all of this kind of came to a head in the last couple days. So let's start with this. Let's put this up there on the screen. So late on July 11, Bedouin gunman ambushed a vegetable truck on the Damascus Zweda highway, beating the driver and stealing the truck. And it's context. The next day, Druze gunman kidnapped eight Bedouins as retaliation, triggering the Bedouin gunman to kidnap five Druze in response. By the way, this is what a lawless state looks like. So next July 12 saw a flurry of quote, tit for tat kidnappings amid attempts by local notables to negotiate a calm down. Tensions and conflict between these clans and the Druze date back for years, tied to drugs and the weapons trade, control of smuggling routes and land ownership. On July 13, negotiations break down. Armed conflict erupts in Sueda between Bedouin clans and Druze militias. Druze militias start getting shelled. Bedouin areas are besieged. 30 people are dead, 100 are injured in 24 hours. All right, now continuing. On July 14th, after attempts to mediate talks, Syria's new government intervenes. These are Al Qaeda forces, right? Deploying military and Interior Ministry forces into Sueda to quote, enforce order and put an end to the, to the internal fighting. Then as these new government forces, the Al Qaeda forces, enter the city, they are ambushed by the Druze militiamen. Ten soldiers are rounded up, executed and used for celebratory photos. And eight other soldiers are taken hostage, stripped and marched to a nearby village in their underwear. All of them are believed to have been dead. Now that's when shit really kicks off. Intense fighting ensues. Government forces advance into the the city. The Druze militia starts shelling the Bedouins, killing a child, apparently a photo of which gets sent around everywhere. In terms of anti Sunni mockery, this is all according to Charles Lister. He's a longtime Syria analyst and he speaks the language as well and has translated all this. Then what happens is, quote, as fighting rages on, Israel begins. Drone strikes there first targeting the Syria militia, armored forces and pickup trucks of the Interior Ministry. So eventually what happens is there's a negotiated ceasefire on July 15 between the Druze, the Christian, the civil council, who invited the government forces to secure order. However, one Druze cleric. I'm not even gonna try and pronounce his name. He is allied with Israel and he's the person who's like, no, we're not doing that. And that's when the Israeli strikes start to go into full effect. Israel strikes not only the Syrian government, basically saying, hey, I'm the boss here. You do what we tell you to do. Some Druze, IDF soldiers and others start flooding to the Israeli Syrian border. They tried to smuggle weapons and to go into Syria to Basically, basically what they were trying to do is instigate like a full on rise up and have complete autonomy over there that Israel has control over. Many of them are actually raising the Israeli flag over the territory. So this is all the reason I went through. Exactly. That is, if you were looking at the Israeli version, you're like, oh my God, the Syrian Al Qaeda forces just came in and, and they're massacring all these Druze. It's a little bit more complicated than that, isn't it? Because they came at the invitation of the interior forces. But this one Druze cleric and militia leader who's allied with Israel was like, no, we're not doing that. And actually we need Israel to come in and show the new Syrian government who's boss. All of that escalates to the point where they're bombing the presidential palace. Now let's just display like, diminish this. They're like, oh, we're doing it to prevent. They literally said, we're doing it to prevent a genocide. Assad killed how many people in Syria over the last 15 years? How many hundreds of thousands were slaughtered? Okay, you know, you didn't do anything at that point. Like you give a shit about humanitarian situation in Syria. Give me a break, all right? This is about control, it's about territory. And really it's about telling the Syrian Al Qaeda government, you answer to us. You don't even get to. You're not even allowed to enter our allies. Territory. Territory without us coming and bombing the shit out of your capital city.
- [57:23]
Zoran Mamdani
The crazy thing is that this Syrian government had already basically been like, you're right, we answer to you.
- [57:29]
Krystal Ball
Exactly.
- [57:29]
Zoran Mamdani
You can take over the Golan Heights.
- [57:31]
Krystal Ball
But it's not enough.
- [57:31]
Zoran Mamdani
The guy who leads Syria now is literally from the Golan Heights.
- [57:34]
Krystal Ball
I know.
- [57:35]
Zoran Mamdani
And he's like, effectively ceded the territory to Israel. I mean, there's a reason why the Trump administration dropped the sanctions on him and redesignated hts, which was his organization. It's like, oh, they're totally not terrorists sending war. It's because they were playing ball and doing everything that America and Israel wanted them to do. But it is still not enough for the Israelis. They want it to be a completely failed state. They want to be able to take over and cede whatever territory they possibly can. And so they're using the pretext of this effectively, like ethnic strife, which is the. Apparently the tensions between the Bedouin and the Druze in this area is in fact longstanding standing now that you have this also civil war now leading to this takeover and this power vacuum. I'm sure that creates even more possibility for escalation of that ethnic strife. And so they're using that as a pretext to come in and just directly bomb Damascus and bomb the Syrian government. It's crazy on the, you know, what was going on there with the government negotiations and them coming in and trying to assert control. I mean, you have to keep in mind here, this is a new government. They are trying to assert control over their territory. So they come in, they actually negotiate. There were multiple cease fires that were negotiated that everyone agreed to except this one dude who's pro Israel, used to be the Israeli plan. And then as soon as he blows up the negotiations, lo and behold, Israel comes in with their bumps. So that's the reality of what's going on here. And yeah, I mean, the lesson you have to take is like, there's no working with these people. There's no. Even if you give them everything that you think that they want, things that should be really outrageous and off the table, even if you do that, it does not matter. So what is this now? The ninth front in the Israeli war? And I have seen some people even who are like, pretty pro Israel being like, what are you doing? Like, we were with you when you were bombing the Palestinians because they're obviously evil and hate you, whatever. But, like, what is going on here? Why are you. How does this make sense? How is this at all justifiable? And the truth is, because they completely act with no accountability, with utter impunity. They just feel like they can take over and do whatever they want because they have been able to do that up to this point.
- [59:48]
Krystal Ball
Yes, and that's the point. The point is, is that, look, no one's saying this is a new front war. The point is, is just that they are allowed by us to come in and do whatever they wanna do to every single one of their neighbors, and we're gonna back them up. And if you want evidence of that, here's the response from the US State Department where they call on the Syrian government. According, by the way, they're the ones who recognize the government and they tell the government, you need to withdraw from your own territory so that we can reach a negotiated solution. Let's take a listen. Has the US Asked Israel to halt strikes on Syria? I cannot speak to specific conversations or the exchanges diplomatically. And we are calling on the Syrian government to, in fact, withdraw their military in order to enable. Enable all sides to de. Escalate and find a path forward. And I think that that's obviously the goal because of the, the nature of what's happened and the secretary's phrasing that this was a misunderstanding. He's optimistic that this can be achieved.
- [60:48]
Zoran Mamdani
So you said you're looking for an Israeli withdrawal and a Syrian government withdrawal from the area.
- [60:54]
Krystal Ball
Can you be more explicit about where? I can't. I can't. Right, so. Okay, got it. And let's go ahead and put Netanyahu's statement up there on the screen. He says, my Druze brothers, citizens of Israel. The situation in Sueda and Southwest is dire. The IDF air forces are in action. We are working to save our Druze brothers and eliminate regime gangs. I have one request for you. You are Israeli citizens. Do not cross the border. You are putting your lives. Remember I was telling you there are a lot of Druze who are crossing the border with weapons. By the way, some of it appeared to be facilitated by the idf, but they're like, oh, actually you're hindering our efforts, basically saying, don't go there, because actually we're bombing it right now. Here we have Secretary of State Marco Rubio who was asked about it and his response is, look, this is a centuries old conflict. That's what this is all about. Let's take a listen. I think I'll ask Marco to say a few words on Syria. Yeah, it's complicated. Obviously these are historic long time rivalries between different groups in the south west of Syria, Syria, Bedouins, the Druze community. And it led to an unfortunate situation and a misunderstanding, it looks like, between the Israeli side and the Syrian side. So we've been engaged with them all morning long and all night long with both sides and we think we're on our way towards a real de escalation and then hopefully get back on track in helping Syria build a country. And arriving at a situation there in the Middle east is far more stable. So. So in the next few hours we hope to see some real progress to end what you've been seeing over the last couple hours. Centuries old conflict. It's like, guys, as I just laid it out, it's actually not complicated at all. You know, it's really not. It's like what happened is, yes, there was some fighting and then this pro Israeli guy said, no, I don't accept that, and asked the Israeli government, which they did, to send a message to the new Syrian government that we're in charge actually of your country. I mean, I don't know, it's like, who do you even root for? You got Al Qaeda on one side. You got IDFR on one side. One side. I'm like, okay, well, glad I'm complicit in all of this. It's just so ridiculous. And by the way, on top of all of that, Bibi Netanyahu is on trial in Israel. You might forget. Don't worry. The United States actually sent our ambassador Mike Huckabee to the courtroom to express their support for Netanyahu's government. Extraordinary. Let's put this up there on the screen. What do you think he did whenever there were strikes on Syria? He said, hey guys, I'm involved in this military operation in Syria. And that's why, that's why the trial needs to adjourn. Oh, got it. And by the way, it's only the fourth time or so now that you have had the trial postponed because of military action. And I'll read some headlines. June 26, 2024. Prime Minister's lawyers tell court Netanyahu can only testify in corruption trial later on in March of 2025. Prosecutors cancel Netanyahu's testimony in corruption trial amid renewed Gaza assault. March 18, 2020 Court lets Netanyahu skip testimony next week for US trip. July 2, 2025. July 16, 2025. Yesterday, trial adjourned because of strikes on Syria. So look, doesn't take a genius to figure out what's going on here. Really glad that that's something that we're all signed up and supporting. And lastly, let's put this on the screen here from Ben gvir, part of the Netanyahu coalition who sends here now. They want to, quote, eliminate the Syrian people. President, the only thing to be done with Jelani is to eliminate him. We need to eliminate the head of the snake. Keep in mind, this is the same leader who has already given Israel everything that it wants, who is open to normalizing relations, open to coming into the Abraham Accords, somebody who, you know, and this is where I don't even want to sound sympathetic to Al Qaeda, but like, if you're a part of the new Syrian government, wouldn't you think that you have Ben's sovereignty over your territory to restore order whenever the something that's breaking out there, you might think that, but no, the Israelis are like, no, no, no, no, we rule your country, not you.
- [64:40]
Zoran Mamdani
Well, and again, they weren't even really trying to assert authority over all of their country. They were like, okay, Israel, fine, you can have that peace. We'll be over here. But even that wasn't good enough. I'll just close with this. There was a good quote here from an expert who said, listen, Israel's demanding that they withdraw their troops further, obviously, and the paradox that creates for them is pretty obvious. If you withdraw, then you just effectively announce Israel controls the country and you fail in your bid to try to assert sovereignty even over the pieces that you haven't already ceded to Israel. And if you don't, then they're going to keep bombing you and then that obviously threatens your ability to hold onto power at all. So that's kind of where things stand right now.
- [65:22]
Krystal Ball
Really great.
- [65:23]
Zoran Mamdani
Just really, you know, very fortunate for Netanyahu the way these things keep coinciding with his trial date.
- [65:28]
Krystal Ball
He's the luckiest man in Israel.
- [65:29]
Zoran Mamdani
Isn't that interesting?
- [65:29]
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- [67:01]
Zoran Mamdani
Ah, come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.
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Zoran Mamdani
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- [67:42]
Zoran Mamdani
All right, let's go ahead and get to the machinations over the Fed chair. So Trump has long expressed in this administration his upset with Jerome Powell, who he initially was the one who put in at the Fed, by the way, which is gonna become relevant during this. During this block. So in any case, apparently he gathered a bunch of Republicans in the Oval Office this week. He reportedly drafted a letter firing announcing the firing of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Asked the Republicans in the room, hey, should I do this? According to Trump, they all were like, yes, Mr. President. Yes, sir. That sounds like a great idea. He has not moved forward with that whatsoever. So in any case, he got asked a question about whether or not he is going to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Let's go ahead and take a listen to what he had to say.
- [68:25]
Krystal Ball
He's a terrible Fed chair. I was surprised he was appointed. I was surprised, frankly, that Biden put him in and extended him. But they did. So, no, we're not planning on doing anything. We're very concerned. And that goes for his board too, because his board is not doing the job because they should try and rein this guy in. So he's doing a lousy job. But no, I'm not talking about that. We get.
- [68:50]
Zoran Mamdani
So he says there, Biden put him in. Biden did not put him in. He put him in. Whatever he says there, he's not planning on doing anything. So maybe this was like kind of a trial balloon. Maybe it was an attempt to distract from other things like Epstein that was going on. But we can put the reporting about this draft letter up on the screen. According to the New York Times, he penned this letter to fire the Fed Chair. He asked Republicans if he should send it. The president, they say, waived a copy of a draft letter firing Jerome Powell and meeting the Oval Office with House Republicans. Remains to be seen whether he follows through with that threat. And then the last piece here Sager is, there was. While this was all swirling and it seemed like more of an active possibility, there was a pretty significant market reaction, especially with regards to the value of the dollar and also the bond yields, both of which are significant and important. And so it's possible this was like a trial balloon. Markets freaked. He decided not to do it. Like I said it's possible. It's a distraction. I don't know. What do you make of all this?
- [69:49]
Krystal Ball
I mean, it's complicated, as in, I do think that Wall street worships at the altar of the Fed in a very unhealthy way and have fetishized this whole idea of central bank independence. I understand why Donald Trump seems to be an unreliable actor through which he would not want to break that norm.
- [70:08]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah.
- [70:08]
Krystal Ball
That said, I mean, the argument is sound in terms of he's out of step with the rest of the entire world's central bank cuts. If you look at the where the rates are right now and the labor market, inflation and all of that, et cetera, your reaction is not working. If you want to look at the correct core economic problems of the American people, one of the main reasons that buying a house right now is just exorbitantly expensive is because of where the rates are. I mean, we have not had a rate cut, or at least a substantial one in multiple years. A lot of people who bought, who wanted to refinance in the future are getting hosed. A lot of people are having to sell for much less than they wanted to. It's one of the main barriers to entry. It makes the average mortgage payment double what somebody who got a rate four or five years ago. I can sympathize with all of that. It also makes the carrying cost of business very difficult. People cannot finance expansion at such high rates. There's a lot of different effects that the rates and all of that have. So it's really one of those where I'm not sure there's two heroes on either side of the story. If you look at it, we had supply side inflation under Biden and the Federal Reserve was like, okay, well, we're going to crush the demand side. I just disagree with that fundamental fundamentally because I think they look at their mandate in a very different in the way that Wall street and all of them want to an old school economic theory that in my opinion, does not account for the way that real markets in the real world work. So I think they've done more damage than they have. Good.
- [71:31]
Zoran Mamdani
I agree with a lot of that. I mean, Trump wants them to cut the rates by 3 percentage points. That seems crazy, seems awesome. That seems wild. And I guess I feel about this sort of similar to how I feel about the term limits conversation, where it's like, in general, I don't support term limits, but I'm glad they're there right now with Donald Trump. And I kind of feel the same thing with the Fed Chair. I actually think that President should be able to have their choice in there and have the Fed policy, monetary policy, reflect their agenda and their view of the economy. Do I trust that power in the hand of Donald Trump? No, I do not. So that's kind of where I am. And I do think if he decided to fire Jerome Powell, I do think there would be a significant, significant market reaction because they are very like, you know, attached to this idea and they also have no confidence in like Trump putting in someone there who would be remotely responsible.
- [72:19]
Krystal Ball
That's the problem. But you know, I mean, this is where I want people to think like a little bit differently. It's like, look, it's not in the Constitution that the Federal Reserve is like this wholly sepulcher of, you know, separate part of government. And if you went back in time, people would say it's preposterous that you have this separate independent bank unanswered to the public. I mean, if you look back at some of the things like the Volcker, Jimmy Carter situation, it was insane. It's like 19% interest rates or whatever. And the President was like, I don't even agree. He appointed him and then basically ruined any chances of him ever getting elected. And that's take the political stuff out of it. If you want to work and have some sort of democratic say in your economy, having an independent central bank is probably the worst possible way to do that. It's basically like a cheap giant insurance scam and all of that for the global financial system. That's fine. Their argument is like, well that trickles down to all of you. I don't agree with that at all. The housing situation is perfect. So look at the people who are getting crushed by rates. Look at the people who worship at the altar of this independent Fed and all of this. And it's mostly Wall street bond traders and others. But yeah, that's the Trump factor, as in his chaos and capriciousness makes it so that if he were the one to do it, even though again, I think it's a sound enough idea, like democratically, it would cause tremendous market reaction and pushback, which I think he would significantly, he would come to regret if it were to ever happen. But he's socializing the idea on Congress cuz he wants Powell to resign. He wants him to go away.
- [73:51]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah, I mean it's just not gonna happen.
- [73:53]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, yeah. So I don't know, he's stuck. And by the way, as you said, he's the one who Appointed him. So why'd you do that?
- [73:59]
Zoran Mamdani
Right? Even if he wants to shift it off, why'd you do that, dude?
- [74:02]
Krystal Ball
You appointed him.
- [74:03]
Zoran Mamdani
Some of us do have brains that have mental memories longer than that of a goldfish.
- [74:08]
Krystal Ball
I was there. I literally remember whenever he was. I remember whenever he was nominated, and especially because he immediately started criticizing him almost after he nominated him, like a year in, it's like nothing has changed. Even at that time, when we had lower rates, he wanted them to go even lower. So that Trump is a real estate guy. I get it. But I do actually think a lot of the country would be on his side. Most people don't necessarily understand Federal Reserve and all of that, but this is, again, if you wanted to make a case, if Trump were to give a grand speech and be like, all of you are paying too much in your mortgage prices, and I want all your mortgage rates to go down, and that's why I'm firing the Fed chairman, it would be very popular. But they don't have the message discipline or any of that to actually be able to sell that idea. It would fall. And nobody on CNBC is gonna be articulating that either. They're gonna be, oh, my God, freak out.
- [74:55]
Zoran Mamdani
One last note on this, and I think I am remembering this correctly. So the Supreme Court recently ruled that Trump could fire some of these other sort of supposedly independent. I think it was maybe at the CFPB officials, but they explicitly tried to write their decision such that they were like, but the Fed is totally different. So I think he also would probably run into some legal issues. Now, as we've seen with this administration, they just act first and worry about the legal consequences later. And that has been a strategy that's been very effective for them because the Supreme Court, in almost every instance on the shadow docket where they can just, instead of actually ruling on something, just say, well, you can do it. For now, as these things work out, they have ruled, sided with Trump in almost every instance where that is concerned. So in a sense, they could get their way, at least for a while. But I think also ultimately, probably the Supreme Court, being as corporate friendly and business friendly as they are, would ultimately come and say, this is too far. You can't actually do this.
- [75:54]
Krystal Ball
Yep, I agree. Okay, next part.
- [75:56]
Zoran Mamdani
Let's get to Zoran and his big meeting with business leaders.
- [75:59]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [76:00]
Zoran Mamdani
So as we have now moved from the New York City Democratic primary into the general election, Zoran Mamdani had a big meeting this week with business leaders in New York City. Some Pretty interesting commentary on that from msnbc. Let's take a listen. They heard a really charming, affable guy who is well prepared. He made jokes, he made self deprecating jokes, but they did not hear someone who changed his policies. And so if you had concerns about his economic policies going into the meeting, you had the same concerns going out. For some people, the charm and his disarming nature was enough to calm people a little bit. For others, the fact that he was very much sticking to his policies further enraged him. So there was a bit of a division coming out of the room in terms of response. But in the room it was mostly cordial, it was mostly pleasant. There was one quite pointed question, effectively saying, how, how can you tell us you're not going to drive business out of New York? And he danced around it a bit. I think his message was, I believe strongly in my policies, but I don't think they're bad for business. And I think many of the business leaders saw a little bit of a disconnect in how you connect those two dots. But overall they found a nice, charming guy and they appreciated the fact that he wanted to meet with them.
- [77:13]
Krystal Ball
But he also enters a race here where the setup seems to really favor him. First of all, anytime you time there's a, you have a D next to your name, you're the Democratic nominee in a deep blue city. That is helpful. He's got that. But if Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams both persist in this race and are both vying for the same sort of, sort of centrist vote they split, that, that only helps him, Donnie. The fact that he's in makes it highly unlikely that Zuran does not win. I talked to some people last night, night who were part of the partnership meeting and they were relatively impressed with Zoran. They had very serious concerns and they were impressed. He's very charismatic, which we found. He came twice to National Action Network and some of them agreed with him, some disagree, but they say he's a lot more personable and more informed than they thought.
- [78:10]
Zoran Mamdani
Apparently at that meeting the CEO of Pfizer had asked him a question about, well, what about globalize the Intifada? Which it just worth reminding everybody.
- [78:18]
Krystal Ball
Wait, the CEO of Fire, why does he. Why do you give a shit about. I know that's your question, right?
- [78:23]
Zoran Mamdani
Okay, whatever. And also just as a reminder, because this, he's been lied about so many times, he never even said that he got asked about the phrase, he quote unquote refused to condemn it. Apparently in this meeting he said he would discourage its use, which is basically what he said from the beginning. I mean, it's just, it's insane to me that out of all these people, he's the controversy. Andrew Cuomo had to literally resign in disgrace. Sagar after killing grandmas in a nursing home. And that's not why covering it up. And I mean, the real reason he was pushed down, had to resign, to your point, was like, what, 11 different women accused him of sexual harassment.
- [78:58]
Krystal Ball
He's just Italian.
- [78:58]
Zoran Mamdani
Curtis Leva has a new line of like, he was spanking fannies and killing grannies.
- [79:04]
Krystal Ball
That's good. I like that. It's also, by the way, accurate. This is actually true.
- [79:08]
Zoran Mamdani
Was indicted on federal corruption charges. Charges. Has a 20% approval rating in the city. I lost track of the number of members of his administration who were under indictment or being federally investigated. His former police commissioner has just accused him of running in court, of running the NYPD and City hall as if it is a criminal enterprise. And Zoron, that's the controversial one. Okay, sure. Kathy Hochul also, I believe, stopped by Morning Joe to get asked these very similar questions. Let's go ahead and take a listen to her, too.
- [79:39]
Krystal Ball
I'm going to make sure that we have a climate where businesses can thrive. They create jobs, they give us the revenues I need to be able to have very generous social safety net programs. Everyone is having a hair on fire moment. And I said, let's just calm it all down. I've spoken to hundreds of business leaders saying, listen, nothing is going to happen to this city without me being aware of it and investing involved in it. So don't talk about packing up and leaving and all these other, you know, overreactions. We're going to be okay no matter what happens.
- [80:13]
Zoran Mamdani
So there you go from her. And interestingly, she's actually facing a primary challenge. Zoran is pushing, of course, for the top tax, you know, for hikes on the top tax bracket. Hochul has said, absolutely not. Her primary opponent is saying, yes. And so that is actually becoming a core issue in terms of the New York primary. But again, like, he is the Democratic nominee. There is a democratic process. People voted, he won. He won by 12 points. He completely changed the electorate in a way that you think Democrats would be like, that's great. How could we do more of that? And instead they just like, you know, don't know what to do with, don't know whether to endorse, don't know what to do with this guy. And a new poll just came out. I mean, he's winning, first of all, for the general election. But also rank and file Democrats, like the people who vote in the city, they're overwhelmingly positive about him. There's no question about it. And his favorability with young voters is off the charts. And the other guys are dramatically underwater and hated. So it's just such a crazy situation to me.
- [81:14]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, especially your point about what's controversial and what's not. It's like, okay, the tax thing. I mean, by the way, New York, you guys should think about it. Because your whole tax system is relied on tax taxing the super rich. So if even 12 people leave, you're actually screwed. You should actually really reform the way that you guys do that. That's just my opinion. Also. I was just there for flagrant. The subway shithole. I'm just gonna say it. I mean, it was the day after the floods that came in the entire platform. Imagine waiting in the platform. Everybody is soaked already from the humidity, and the platform itself is steaming from all of the floodwaters. And we're all crammed in there together. And then you walk into the ac, which you think will be refreshing, but actually what happens is now your entire body is covered and your suit and everything is wet, and you absorb the sweat off of another person onto yourself. That was my experience yesterday in the New York City summit. Been there, Been there. Yeah, we've been there. But it's one of those things you're like, yeah, this is not great. Okay. In terms of the flooding situation. Didn't enjoy it myself. And so that just shows, like, the rank and file, like the stuff that actually animates people. That's really what matters. Also, I did check, and Zoran is right. Halal. Too fucking expensive. All right? I went to the cart and I said, no. First, I don't have any cash on me. The guy's not taking card or whatever. And yeah, it's like $12, $13. Sorry, it's too much. It's too much.
- [82:33]
Zoran Mamdani
I miss New York so much. One last piece here on the Zoran business leaders, because this was just too funny. Put D3 up on the screen. This tweet just really sent me. So this lady has says, tough meeting for Mamdani with the partnership for New York CEOs today, I'm told stood his ground on intifada language and wouldn't commit to keeping the New York PD Commissioner Tisch, whom this crowd likes in the job. Also didn't recognize her dad, Tim Jim Tish, when he rose for a question. How dare he not recognize a Tish when they rise for a question. You know, I know a lot of people out there in the comments were saying I'm a single issue voter which is can you recognize Jim Tish when he stands for a question?
- [83:15]
Krystal Ball
I didn't realize that the NYPD commissioner is part of the Lowe's dynasty.
- [83:19]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah, they're one.
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Krystal Ball
Yeah. This is actually wild.
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Zoran Mamdani
I didn't know that families in the country. Okay. And so they were offended that he how dare he didn't have his billionaire who Facebook in front of him. Anyway. So that's how things are going in that race.
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Krystal Ball
That's New York.
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Sagar Enjeti
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Zoran Mamdani
Knock out the rest of it. Belveda Breakfast Biscuits are a tasty and convenient breakfast option when paired with low fat fat yogurt and fruit that provide.
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Sagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Zoran Mamdani
They both taste great, so make the most out of your morning with a bite of Velveeta.
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Krystal Ball
Pick up a pack of Velveeta at.
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Zoran Mamdani
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Krystal Ball
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