7/23/26: Oil Hits $100, Prof Marandi On War Escalation, Hegseth Demands Billions

Summary

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Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: 7/23/26: Oil Hits $100, Prof Marandi On War Escalation, Hegseth Demands Billions

Aired: July 24, 2026
Hosts: Krystal Ball & Saagar Enjeti
Special Guest: Professor Said Mohammad Marandi (University of Tehran)

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into the rapidly escalating Middle East conflict, focusing on the surge in oil prices due to crisis in the Red Sea, U.S.–Iran tensions, the Houthis' actions against Saudi shipping, mounting Pentagon budget demands, and America’s growing frustration with endless war costs. Professor Mohammad Marandi joins to provide the Iranian perspective on the spiraling conflict and threats of further escalation, while the hosts interrogate the Pentagon's trillion-dollar budget requests and expose the disconnect between D.C. rhetoric and the on-the-ground realities.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Oil Skyrockets, Red Sea Blockade, and Houthi Attacks

(Segment Start: 02:31)

• Oil Surges: Oil prices are near $100 a barrel ($98 at time of recording) as conflict disrupts supply routes.
  • Saagar: "Oil headed back up to $100 a barrel right now as we speak. It sits at $98. This comes as Trump issues new threats." (02:31)
• Red Sea Escalation: The Houthis enforce a blockade of the Bab El Mandab Strait, attacking at least two Saudi oil tankers.
  • Krystal: “The very large tanker ships that they typically use to transport oil are too large to go through the Suez Canal. So this was really the route that they needed to take. Now that has been shut off as well and the markets are reacting accordingly.” (05:25)
• Chinese Diplomacy: A Chinese-flagged oil tanker was allowed through the strait after a diplomatic maneuver, suggesting behind-the-scenes dealings between Beijing and the Houthis, highlighting fractures between Middle Eastern and Western interests.
  • Krystal: “A Chinese-flagged oil tanker… was allowed to go through the Bab El Mandeb Strait by the Houthis… demonstrates the way that things are moving… while Western or Gulf Arab ships... are liable to be shot at.” (05:50)
• Trump’s Role: Alleged that Trump encouraged Saudi escalation against the Houthis, breaking earlier restraint and escalating the crisis.
  • Krystal: “All of this is because actually of Trump... Trump told MBS, reportedly behind the scenes, go ahead and start firing at the Houthis.” (06:26)

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2. U.S.–Iran Escalation & Regional Consequences

(Segment Start: 07:15)

• Trump’s Open Threats: Trump promises retaliation against Iranian civilian infrastructure for any further attacks, breaking traditional U.S. approaches to war.
  • Krystal: “He thinks old people should have less of a vote… It’s like a weird three fifths compromise for old people.” (03:24)
  • Krystal on Trump’s threats: “From this point forward, anytime the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship... the United States will bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant, including those... in Tehran.” (07:42)
• Escalating Military Movements: Large-scale U.S. repositioning in the region, more medics sent to European bases, Israel opening new bomb shelters.
  • Krystal: “There are thousands now of assets that have been repositioned in the Middle East… Special operations groups ... have been repositioned...” (08:36)
• Iran’s Retaliatory Doctrine: Iranian officials vow, "If we don’t get to export any oil, you’re not going to export any either." (09:56)
  • Quote: "If our security is not insured, no infrastructure will be safe... situation of the Strait will not return to pre war conditions." — Iranian FM Golubov (09:56)
• U.S. Vulnerability: Krystal notes U.S. bases are poorly defended, overstretched, and logistics are crumbling.
  • Krystal: "Options that the military has... they are much more constrained." (13:27)
• Iran’s Leverage: Gulf countries are existentially dependent on energy infrastructure; Iranian attacks have pushed Kuwait to electricity rationing.
  • Krystal: "The government is calling for this, and we should all comply... This region of the world is uninhabitable without power." (11:29)

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3. Military Reality Check & Trump Administration Narratives

(Segment Start: 14:55)

• Failed American Deterrence: U.S. reliance on military bases now makes regional partners more vulnerable as targets.
  • Saagar: “Rather than providing for their security, you're actually putting them at risk.” (14:55)
• Trump’s Narratives Around Troop Deaths: Trump claims, without basis, that all fallen U.S. service members “can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
  • Krystal quoting Trump/Gen. Kellogg: “They, all of them said very strongly, we can't let... cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon.” (16:54)
  • Saagar counterpoint: “He has no idea what was in the minds of these individuals. And by the way, if your commitment was... you have failed.” (17:01)

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4. Interview: Professor Mohammad Marandi, University of Tehran

(Segment Start: 20:05)

Iran’s View on U.S. Threats and Escalation

• Proxy Dynamics: Marandi stresses that Houthis are acting on their own grievances; U.S. could not defeat either Yemen or Iran, simultaneous wars would end badly for America.
  • Marandi: “If Trump wants to fight two wars simultaneously against these two entities that he could not defeat, I don't think the result will be victory.” (21:36)
• Deterrence and Retaliation: Iran has already demonstrated it will target regional critical infrastructure in response to attacks, which could make the Gulf unlivable and tank global energy markets.
  • Marandi: “If Iran destroys the critical infrastructure in these countries, which are all deserts... these countries will have to be evacuated, and that includes Saudi Arabia... That will lead to a global economic depression worse than the 1930s. This is not something that Iran wants… but this is Iran's deterrence.” (25:12)
• Diplomacy Deadlock: There is no appetite in Iran for renewed negotiations; prior agreements (MoU, JCPOA) were seen as attempts by the U.S. to outmaneuver Iran without honoring commitments.
  • Marandi: "No one now is talking about negotiations." (30:42)
  • Marandi: "The difference between Iran and the United States was that the Iranians were willing to implement the deal, but not the Americans." (32:01)

Memorable Moments from the Interview

• On U.S. Military Strategy
  • Marandi (mocking Gen. Kellogg): “I'm really surprised that he was a general. What strategic value would Kharg island have?... This is not like the 18th century. It's not even the 20th century. This is the 21st century. It's missiles and drones.” (35:50)
  • Marandi: "If this war expands... the U.S. economy will collapse... global economic depression... tens or hundreds of millions of people will be on the move." (38:28)

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5. Pentagon Budget Demands & Congressional Frustration

(Segment Start: 42:45)

• $1.5 Trillion Request: Secretary Pete Hegseth calls non-funding the Pentagon’s $1.5T budget request “the greatest threat our nation faces.”
  • Krystal: “Turning now to the Pentagon, which is currently shaking down the American taxpayer for some $1.5 trillion.” (42:45)
• Broken Accounting, Mounting Costs:
  • Pentagon has not passed an audit in five years.
  • Costs of the Iran war are vastly understated (Pentagon cites $37.5B; actuals nearer $100B+).
  • Krystal: “The real cost is somewhere around $100 billion. And by the way, even that is a little bit of a low ball.” (47:22)
• Pentagon Slush Fund: Military boondoggles, delays in munitions replacement, and lack of transparency—spending on par with WWII for little result.
  • Saagar: “Hegseth wants to spend even more than that over the next four years. He’s asking for more money than we spent in all of World War II.” (45:49)
• The Grift of Defense Contracting: Outdated supply chains, one-point failures (e.g., gun cotton), and exorbitant costs for munitions vs. Iranian cost-effective drones.
  • Krystal: “Where is the money going? For what purpose?... No attempt at trying to have some level of efficiency.” (54:02)
  • Saagar: “Iran is churning out their Shahed drones at low cost like there's no tomorrow.” (53:11)

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6. Accountability, War Realities & Political Grandstanding

(Segment Start: 56:54)

• U.S. Troop Casualties and Pentagon Spin: Waltz pressed on the true extent of U.S. casualties vs. White House rhetoric that Iran’s military was “obliterated.”
  • Krystal Questions Waltz: “How is it possible that 482 American troops have been wounded and 18 service members killed by an Iranian military that's been purportedly obliterated?” (57:24)
  • Saagar: “If the nuclear program was obliterated, why did we do this war in the first place?” (59:26)
• Expanding Sanctions: Trump pushes to add Iran to the Russia sanctions bill, risking further spikes in oil prices and curtailing diplomatic options.
  • Krystal: “They want to add Iran, per Trump, in the honor of the great Lindsey Graham... It would absolutely cripple even more of the black market oil, which is currently on the market... It gives Trump more extraordinary powers and would further hurt, actually, and probably drive oil prices even higher.” (59:42)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump’s threat to Iran:
  Krystal (reading Trump): “Anytime the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship... the United States will bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant, including those... in Tehran.” (07:42)
• Iranian Defense Doctrine:
  Prof. Morandi quoting Iran's FM: “The equation of this war is clear, either all or none... If our security is not insured, no infrastructure will be safe.” (23:36)
• Global Economic Catastrophe Warning:
  Prof. Marandi: “That will lead to a global economic depression worse than the 1930s... This is not something that Iran wants... but this is Iran's deterrence.” (25:12)
• On U.S. Military Procurement Dysfunction:
  Krystal: “I brought it up in our last show, $500 million to produce these new or to reproduce these 155 millimeter shells… not a single shell has rolled off of the assembly line. $500 million. It's gone.” (44:11)
• On the Folly of Escalation:
  Prof. Marandi: “If they go after Iran's critical infrastructure, this time round, Iran is going to do the same and we're going to literally be living in a completely different world if that happens.” (39:32)
• Congressional Reality Check:
  Saagar: "How do you know you're out of money when you can't even do your own audit? Like, what? How does that even work?" (51:52)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro and Episode Preview: 02:31–03:41
• Oil Crisis & Red Sea Escalation: 04:16–07:15
• Trump’s Open Threats & Regional Moves: 07:42–13:27
• Military Constraints & Iranian Leverage: 13:27–14:55
• American Military Vulnerabilities: 14:55–17:28
• Angling for War Funding – Pentagon Budget: 42:45–47:22
• Professor Morandi Interview – View from Iran: 20:05–40:09
• Debate on Troop Casualties & Pentagon Spin: 56:54–59:42
• Sanctions and Geopolitical Outlook: 59:42–62:07

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Tone & Style

The episode is characterized by the hosts' signature blend of biting skepticism, detailed policy critique, and dry wit. Krystal and Saagar balance accessible analysis with deep dives into military budgets and foreign policy, frequently lampooning D.C. doublespeak and Pentagon obfuscation. Professor Marandi delivers the Iranian viewpoint in a sober, direct, and stern mode, pushing back on U.S. narratives and emphasizing the immediacy and magnitude of potential escalation.

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Summary Takeaways for Listeners

• The war in Iran is intensifying, causing global oil shocks and revealing both U.S. military vulnerability and strategic overreach.
• Trump’s administration is pursuing open threats against civilian infrastructure—crossing red lines and risking catastrophic escalation.
• The U.S. Pentagon is demanding and mismanaging unprecedented sums, with little transparency, spiraling costs, and crumbling credibility.
• Iran sees only escalatory logic from the U.S.—with no appetite for negotiations unless the U.S. radically reverses policy and honors prior deals.
• New moves in Congress to link Iran to Russia sanctions threaten to further destabilize energy and global markets.
• Both the hosts and their guest warn of historical stakes: not only could Middle East missteps lead to regional collapse, but mismanagement at home threatens to hollow out American power.

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End of Summary

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com. good morning, everybody. Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What we have, Crystal.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Indeed we do. Oil Headed back up to $100 a barrel right now as we speak. It sits at $98. This comes as Trump issues new threats. Professor Mohammed Morandi is going to join us with the view from Tehran on what is unfolding in the Iran war. The Pentagon, meanwhile, is begging for more money and it's not going all that well. Even MAGA is getting sick of this war. There are a bunch of new polls looking pretty grim for the president and his coalition. AI escaped the lab and hacked into another company. Significant, significant warning signs here. Major breach. We're going to have an expert on to break down what this means going forward. And we have. This is a saga special author of a book on the Gerontocracy with some fairly provocative ideas about how to get the old people in check. So that' be an interesting one. I have some, some things I want to, some bones I want to pick with him on this one.

[Krystal Ball]

He's just asking questions. He's just asking questions.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He is not asking questions. He's asserting. He just to give the game away a little bit. He thinks old people should have less of a vote. Like their vote should actually be weighted, which is kind of wild. Like, it's like a weird three fifths compromise for old people pushing wild.

[Krystal Ball]

Or potentially a visionary. We will, we will get to that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Should be a fun one.

[Krystal Ball]

Maybe they'll be laughing at him or maybe, maybe they'll be laughing at us for even doubting him 20 years from now. Thank you to everybody who's been subscribing to the show BreakingPoints.com, you of course, will be able to watch our AMA live, which we're doing right after this. And you can also sign up for our newsletter perfectly for [e-mail] support our work that we are doing here. If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. And if you're listening to the podcast, please share an episode with a friend. Rate us 5 stars. Really helps other people find the show. But we're gonna go ahead and start with the escalation in oil and in the Red Sea as the Houthis continue to fire.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Let's go and put a 2B up on the screen here. As I mentioned before, oil is skyrocketing this morning back up to nearly $100 a barrel as we speak. Right now at 8:04am it is at $98 a barrel. So a significant, significant spike and no surprise. Why? Because not only are we back to war, where there is a blockade and a Blockade of the blockade. But we had the Houthis come out and say, hey, guess what, Saudi Arabia, you are not going to be able to ship through the Bab El Mandab Strait. And they made good on their pledge to enforce their own blockade. We can put a 1B up on the screen here. The Houthis are claiming attacks on two Saudi oil tankers. One of them has certainly been confirmed. You can see this, this fire. Those are confirmed images from one of those Saudi oil tankers. And as we've all learned with the Strait of Hormuz, it actually doesn't take a lot to dissuade the entire shipping. They don't want to risk their lives on behalf of the oil industry. The insurance companies do not think that this is worth backing taking the financial risk here. And so what happens is a complete shutdown. This was an important pressure valve Sagar, for the entire oil market. Saudi was able to get some 4, 5, 6, somewhere in that ballpark million barrels of oil out through this area. The very large tanker ships that they typically use to transport oil are too large to go through the Suez Canal. So this was really the route that they needed to take. Now that has been shut off as well and the markets are reacting accordingly.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's right. There actually is a very interesting geopolitical wrinkle to all of this, is a Chinese flagged oil tank. This literally just happened this morning. Chinese flagged oil tanker which had docked in Saudi Arabia actually was allowed to go through the Bab El Mandeb Strait by the Houthis. This initially came after they had done a U turn and then appearance some diplomacy had happened behind the scenes. Just to give people an example. So it's not so. Even though the Houthis had declared that Saudi Arabian oil specifically any tanker that took their oil coming through the strait or through the Baba Mandeb Strait was going to get hit. It does appear that there's some side deal that has happened here with Beijing. Now that's not gonna have any impact on any of us, but it is certainly demonstrates the way that things are moving some behind the scenes while Western oil companies or Western or Gulf Arab ships which dock are liable to be shot at, which is significant. Right. In terms of both the Chinese ability to have some diplomacy here behind the scenes. And I do think it's worth saying that all of this is because actually of Trump and it's not just in terms of the Iran war. Trump told mbs reportedly behind the scenes, go ahead, go ahead and start firing at the Houthis. It's very noteworthy the Houthis did not do any of this in the first phase of the war when at least seemingly there was some restraint. And of course, the war drums are beating again in Washington. We need to show the Houthis, alas. And I'm like, yeah, try that one already completely failed, actually.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It was a pre cross two administrations.

[Retired General Keith Kellogg]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

The Houthi campaign from Joe Biden. What did he say? Famously, he said. He said, are we going to continue? Is it working?

[Ashley Iconetty]

No.

[Krystal Ball]

Are we going to continue bombing them? Yes. Actual quote from Joe Biden.

[Saagar Enjeti]

One of the most honest foreign policy statements an American president has ever made,

[Krystal Ball]

basically, you know, gives the entire game away. Trump escalated the campaign, didn't work. Complete and a total failure, and just

[Saagar Enjeti]

basically quietly gave up.

[Krystal Ball]

Totally gave up.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

It was a real precursor to what happened, what was going to happen with the war in Iran. You also have a one we could put here on the screen. Trump, absolutely desperate. This truth social post from yesterday. From this point forward, anytime the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by missile, rocket, drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant, including those located next to or in the capital city of Tehran. You know, openly, just flouting, you know, the usual way that the United States conducts war. So that's one thing. But the second thing is this is by account of one analyst, the 10th time that he has threatened civilian infrastructure around Tehran. So he's either gonna do it or not. I mean, look, it could precursor, you know, the biggest taco of all time, which you shouldn't. You know, that literally happened on the same day as the whole civilization will die tonight. But as of this morning, we haven't even added any of this in the show. Cause it's all literally happening in real time. There are thousands now of assets that have been repositioned in the Middle East. We talked in our last show about the warships. In the Worst sign yet, 150 new medics have arrived at the medical base in Landstuhl.

[Saagar Enjeti]

In German, there's a lot of criticism over the medical care that American service members have been receiving, as there should

[Krystal Ball]

be, and which many of the people who were wounded themselves will tell you. It appears actually just broke again minutes ago, that at least a dozen were severely wounded in the same attack in which those service members were killed recently in the base in Jordan. They are now in Germany, but they've surged all these new medics and the expectations potentially of more casualties that are coming in all of these new warships. Special operations groups similarly have been repositioned back in the Middle East. And then again, literally as of this morning, the Israelis are actually expanding and opening new bomb shelters all across the country. Yet there has not been any announcement by the IDF Home command. So you put that all together and you have at least the potential for a serious escalation. And Trump saying, I'm going to threaten civilian infrastructure. One of the things that we really want to talk to Professor Morandi about is the new threats that the Iranian Foreign Minister Ngolubov have said specifically, basically saying if we don't get to export any oil, you're not going to export any either.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, let's take a look at a three. This is from Speaker Golubov. He says essentially exactly what Sager just said. The equation of this war is clear, either all or none. In a region where we do not sell oil, no one will sell oil. If our security is not insured, no infrastructure will be safe. And the security of the Strait is in the absence of American forces. We have repeatedly said the situation of the Strait will not return to pre war conditions. Let's also put Arachi up on the screen here echoing the sentiments. He says our defense doctrine is clear, eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response. Those who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets. That of course, is the, you know, the neighborhood there. And talking about Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, anyone who is involved, uae, anyone who is involved in these attacks hosting American troops, will be targeted. Of course, they have demonstrated time and again in spite of this holo, their militaries obliterated. Apparently not obliterated. Too obliterated to exact a lot of damage. Continuing on our bases, on our radar systems, making it much more difficult for us to intercept their missiles and protect our service members. And I don't know how to tell Trump that even if we take his threat here at face value, that every time that he'll take one bridge, he'll take a power plant. Iran has a lot of bridges and power plants. They are much less vulnerable in a lot of ways than let's say, Kuwait, where already we can put a 5 up on the screen. Already Kuwaitis are having to ration electricity because of Iranian hits to the power grid. This is pro the afp. Residents of Kuwait City say they're adjusting their daily routines to reduce electricity consumption after authorities appealed for public cooperation following Iranian Attacks targeting power and water facilities. The government is calling for this, and we should all comply, says one resident. This region of the world is uninhabitable without power and without desalination plants and water, and, by the way, over a long period, without the ability to import foodstuff as well. They're completely dependent on these technologies and on being able to import what they need to survive. So they are genuinely, genuinely vulnerable in an existential way. I think that may be some of the reason why, after more maximalist attacks, Trump has somewhat pulled back. Although I think the more likely indication, based on the massing of troops and bringing in of medics, as Sagar was just saying, that we're seeing, is that they are building up for some larger attack. Trump, of course, has already said they're gonna bomb Pickaxe Mountain. I don't know what that's gonna do. First of all, all of the military analysis I've seen has said that with conventional weapons, you're not gonna be able to do much more than collapse the tunnels there. Of course, it's always possible. He is considering breaking the nuclear taboo and using nuclear weapons. And I think that's exactly the sort of thing we have to be deeply concerned about. That or some sort of foolhardy, almost certainly disastrous ground invasion, either to take these islands or somewhere else in Iran, because Trump is just that desperate. It is abundantly clear now that this air campaign only approach is not going to get him anywhere. His hand is much weaker than it was. In fact, when we originally signed that mou. That was our best chance to get out of this thing. And now the Iranians have no interest in negotiations because once again, the US has blown up. You know, the negotiation, the diplomacy, that process that had begun.

[Krystal Ball]

And I'm reading in terms of some of the other things that they're flagging here for the Special Operations Group, the new amount of weapons that are all being surged. The biggest problem also, from what I was reading, is about what's going on with the Houthis. If the United States were to want to reposition position military assets to try and take on the Houthis, that we already face a serious problem in terms of all of our air bases. The air bases themselves are mostly empty. A lot of them have been attacked. What we've also seen is that these carrier groups are all stretched to the absolute brim. I mean, I was reading, like, some of these guys have been deployed for 11 months, you know, far longer than they initially had expected. That causes serious issues with resupply and strain on the equipment for retrofit for all of that. So I just think that what you can see broadly inside of the options that the military has, they actually are much more constrained, other than they are much more constrained. And furthermore, for example, like, there's signs of many of the jets and all these other things. Someone was explaining to me the maintenance schedule. So recently a B1 bomber was actually just used over Iran, not the first time it's been used in the campaign. But a military expert who I spoke to is like, they're really. They're not doing that because of the mission set. They need it to offset some of the demand that's already in place on some of the other assets. So it just means you're pulling further and further and all of that into the region. So it's very, very dangerous.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, so much of the way that we have been fighting wars and conceiving of security has just been completely blown up by this war. And all the signs were there. I mean, even if you just consider the basing strategy, right, the idea was that we'd have all these bases in the region and then, you know, we would be able to deter Iran. I think it really didn't. Really didn't take into account, okay, well, what if we're the aggressors here? We start the war how vulnerable we could ultimately end up being. And the way that that would make the regional allies effectively sitting ducks. So rather than providing for their security, you're actually putting them at risk. You know, all of those bases that were attacked and abandoned, there's a reason why Iran is focusing on Jordan now, because we basically had to retreat to Jordan, and we've seen the way that they were unable to protect service members there. At this point, Trump sort of disgustingly blaming the Jordanians, saying, oh, they didn't know what they were doing in terms of missile defense. I mean, ultimately, even if that's the case, it's still on us for delegating to someone if you didn't think that they were going to be ultimately up to the task. The Iranians appear to be very strategic here in continuing to target very expensive radar systems, making it much less likely that we will be able to, you know, effectively intercept the missiles and the drones that they are sending. There are some indications that they're sort of building up to when eventually Israel does engage in their attacks again inside of Israel to make Israel more difficult to defend as well. Meanwhile, Sagr was talking about Trump and the way that he's viewing these servicemember deaths. Let's go ahead and take a listen to A two and the way that he is claiming, he's claiming that all of these fallen service members, that they really were fully on board with the mission, all of them said, we can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon. Let's listen to that. Some of you are going with us

[Retired General Keith Kellogg]

to honor our heroes. And they are indeed great heroes.

[Krystal Ball]

Actually, they said, and they, all of

[Retired General Keith Kellogg]

them said very strongly, we can't let,

[Krystal Ball]

cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. They won't have a nuclear weapon. So we're going to honor them. Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Obviously he has no idea what was in the minds of these individuals. And by the way, if your commitment was to keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, you have failed. There was a deal on the table prior to you engaging in this illegal, aggressive and monstrous war that would have led to Iran not having a nuclear weapon. Instead, all of the logic and incentives at this point are for Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon. We are much more likely for that to happen than we were before this war.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's right. All right, I think we have Professor Morandi standing by. So let's get to it.

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[Tony Ayo]

This is Tony Ayo from the Real Report with Tony Ayo and Uncle Murder. You ever notice how everything keeps going up? Rent's going up, streaming services are going up. Even your favorite burrito spot suddenly thinks salsa should cost extra. But with Boost Mobile, you and your phone bill don't have to play the Willis Go up Soon game because Boost Mobile has an unlimited talk, text and data plan at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for life, meaning you're set to never worry about your bill increasing again for as long as you're on the plan. While the world keeps finding new ways to nickel and dime you, Boost Mobile gives you unlimited wireless at one set price for life. Imagine something in your budget staying the same. You'll pay the same for unlimited wireless when you're posting mirror selfies in your 20s. And when you're posting mirror selfies in retirement. Some things never change. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up, only at boost mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan.

[Glenn Washington]

I'm Glenn Washington, host of Snap Judgment from kqed. Every week, snap drops you inside someone's biggest decision, the kind of decision you can only make once with everything on the line. What do you believe? What do you want? And what would you risk to get it? Find out Snap Judgment new episodes every Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So for the view from Iran, we are now joined by Professor Said Mohammad Morandi of the University of Tehran. Great to see you again, sir.

[Krystal Ball]

Good to see you.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Thank you both for inviting me. It's always a great pleasure.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Of course. So we have a fresh Trump Truth social for you to react to here. We don't even have the element made yet, so I'll read it to you. It says a year ago, the United States of America attacked very powerfully the Houthis for their interference with commerce and trade by shooting at ships. Since that time and during our conflict with Iran, they have acted very responsibly. Unfortunately, now they are starting up again, shooting at two Saudi Arabian ships last night. Please let this truth serve to represent that if they do this again, the US Will hold Iran responsible in that the Houthis are a surrogate and or proxy of Iran. Major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran. And of course, the Houthis themselves, who I am very disappointed with in that they have until now acted very professionally and smart. Your reaction to that, sir?

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Well, we are already on Trump's list even as he's waging war against the country. He said that any ship that hit or even fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz in response, the United States will take out a a power plant or a bridge. Well, last night, three ships tried to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without the permission of the Iranian navy. And one of them was struck and the other two retreated. So far, Trump has not carried out this threat. Of course, the Iranians have said that if he does so, then those countries in the Persian Gulf that are complicit in this war, their, their critical infrastructure will be destroyed. And we know what that would mean in the month of July in the Persia, in the Arabian Peninsula, that would effectively mean that these countries would have to be evacuated. Now, Ansar Allah has its own grievances. The Yemen, the or the Houthis, as they say in the West. The Saudis have led a siege on their country for years, and they see this as the best moment to have leverage because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. So they said, we're going to shut the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia until they, they lift the siege. And the United States waged war against Yemen. They didn't. The United States did not succeed. So far, the United States in its war against Iran has not succeeded. If Trump wants to fight two wars simultaneously against these two entities that he could not defeat, I don't think the result will be victory.

[Krystal Ball]

Professor, I'm curious for your reaction here about the ongoing diplomatic posture in Tehran. We can put a four up here on the screen. Your foreign minister put this statement out yesterday. Our defense doctrine is clear, an eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response. Those who contribute to such aggression, whatever kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets. So if I pair this with some of the comments I've seen you make recently, publicly going after many of these Gulf regimes, which are host, of course, to our bases, what can we expect if Trump does follow through with this threat of bombing civilian infrastructure, specifically bridges and energy targets around the capital city? Where will likely Iranian retaliation come?

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Well, we go back to the 40 Day War, the Ramadan War. Back then, the Israeli regime and the United States, they began targeting Iranian critical infrastructure. And one strike was on the South Parse gas field, the biggest gas field in Iran, which is a joint field with Qatar. And the Iranian response, because the Iranians had warned back then that they'd do the same thing, that they would strike back at the critical infrastructure of those countries that are hosting the US that are enabling the US to attack Iran and the US and the Israeli regime. So they struck back very hard, including striking at the Qatari gas facilities. And then Trump right afterwards put up a true social statement saying that this is not going to happen again and Netanyahu is not going to do this anymore. So that was Iran's deterrence. And a few days ago, when the Americans, as you recall, they started bombing Iranian bridges and tunnels, all civilian, and killing people who were on the bridge, including families, women and children. Well, I'm not sure about children, but I do know about women. The Iranians threatened the United States and said that if you continue, we're going to strike back at the infrastructure. And the US Also hit desalination, a desalination plant in a hospital in the city of Ahmad, a children's hospital. So Iran, I'm sure you recall, struck Kuwait's, the electrical grid and a desalination plant to say that, to basically say that, look, take this threat seriously. And since then, the United States has sort of backed off, even though last night they did strike the border between Iran and Iraq, killing two pilgrims, which I don't know why they did that. But in general, the United States has backed off. So the Iranian threat is real. And the Iranians will go and destroy the infrastructure of these countries because they don't have access to US Infrastructure in the United States, or so they're going to do it here. Now, if that happens, you both know exactly what, what that will mean. That will mean that the energy markets will be wrecked permanently or at least for years to come, because if Iran destroys the critical infrastructure in these countries, which are all deserts, and we're in the month of July, these countries will have to be evacuated, and that includes Saudi Arabia. The countries will fall apart. And that means that there will be no more energy for months, if not years to come. And that will lead to a global economic depression worse than the 1930s. This is, is not something that Iran wants. Iran didn't start the war. Iran didn't escalate. Iran didn't threaten to target critical infrastructure. But this is Iran's deterrence. They will do this, but they're saying they will do this so that Trump does not move in that, in that direction.

[Ashley Iconetty]

This is Ashley Iconetty from the Ben and Ashley I Almost Famous podcast. Ben. I've been reflecting a lot lately on how many big life moments our listeners have experienced with us.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it's pretty wild.

[Ashley Iconetty]

They've watched us go from dating shows to engagements, weddings, babies, buying homes. Every stage comes with new decisions.

[Krystal Ball]

The milestones are the fun part, but the planning is where things get real.

[Ashley Iconetty]

That's why Klarna stands out. Klarna gives people smarter tools to help manage everyday money with flexible ways to pay cash back that builds automatically everything in one place and support that makes everyday decisions feel less overwhelming.

[Krystal Ball]

Since life moves so fast. The right tools can help you feel more confident. Download the Klarna app today or visit klarna.com to learn more.

[Glenn Washington]

California Resident loans made her arrange pursuant to a California Finance law license and MLS number 1353190 Klarna balance account required to be eligible for cashback points. Limitations, Terms and conditions apply.

[Tony Ayo]

This is Tony Ayo from the Real Report with Tony Ayo and Uncle Murder. You ever notice how everything keeps going up? Rent's going up, streaming services are going up. Even your favorite burrito spot suddenly thinks salsa should cost extra. But with Boost Mobile, you and your phone bill don't have to play the Will this go up soon? Game because Boost Mobile has an unlimited talk, text and data plan at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for life, meaning you're set to never worry about your bill increasing again for as long as you're on the plan. While the world keeps finding new ways to nickel and dime you, Boost Mobile gives you unlimited wireless at one set price for life. Imagine something in your budget actually staying the same. You'll pay the same for unlimited wireless when you're posting mirror selfies in your 20s, and when you're posting mirror selfies in retirement. Some things never change. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up. Only at boost mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan.

[Glenn Washington]

I'm Glenn Washington, host of Snap Judgment from kqed. Every week, Snap drops you inside someone's biggest decision, the kind of decision you can only make once with everything on the line. What do you believe? What do you want, and what would you risk to get it? Find out Snap Judgment New episodes every Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Professor President Trump has claimed that Iran is begging to talk. I don't think there's any reason to take those claims seriously, but I am curious what the attitude within Iran, as far as you can glean towards negotiations and diplomacy, is at this point.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Well, we all know that he said he was saying this throughout this war. He's been saying it so many times. I don't know how many times exactly, but tens of times. And you know, in Iran, there's actually a different type of debate. There is a divide in Iran between those who think that the MOU was the right thing to do and those who said that we should not have signed the mou. And we should have just continued. Continued until things got worse for the United States. Both sides have an argument to make. I mean, those who were in favor of the MoU, they said, well, we took advantage of the first few days. We exported tens of millions of barrels of oil and imported critical supplies to prepare ourselves for the next phase. Because we knew that the United States would not abide by the mou. And those who oppose it were saying, no, we should have continued. They were in bad shape, and we should have just put more pressure on. The debate is not. Let's just negotiate now. No one is saying that. So the debate today is. And I'm not. Both sides have arguments to make, and I'm not in any particular camp myself. I think both. It's some. I think both have good arguments to make. But the point is that the talk is whether we should have been hitting harder and being more assertive rather than pursuing the policy that we did in the past. No one now is talking about negotiations.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, the curious thing, sir, I saw that you had said during the Memorandum of Understanding period, if you could say that there was some sort of understanding, as you were mimicking some of the rhetoric of our vice president, say that you were taking the opportunity to reload. So was this always the course of action that was in the minds of many of these Iranian leaders? And now that we are back in a phase where some hot war has resumed, what would it take to resume the Memorandum of Understanding?

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

The Iranian leaders did not believe that the United States would abide by the mou. If they had, the Iranians would have fulfilled their side of the bargain. No doubt the Iranian intention was there. And that's how it's been in the past with the jcpoa. That's how it was. And it would have been the same today. But the Iranians knew that, at least those who I know in the different political camps, they all believed that the United States would not abide by its commitments. And it became pretty clear after three, four days, they did not hand over the stolen assets. They did not force the Israeli regime to leave Lebanon. Trump continued to threaten Iranian officials and the Iranian people, which is a violation of the deal. They expanded the sanctions regime, another violation. They removed the sanctions on oil exports, then reversed that after a few days, another violation. And of course, they in violation of Article 5, they went and set up their own parallel corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, because in Article 5, Iran was supposed to manage the strait. So what the Americans were trying to do is to try to take control over the Strait, take away Iran's leverage, and then not carry out its obligations and win a war that they could not win on the battlefield or through siege warfare. So, and then they bombed Iran. When Iran ultimately, after a couple of weeks of warning the Saudis and the Emiratis and the Americans not to do this, Iranians finally struck two, three ships, I think. And then the Americans waged war against Iran again, another violation, and reimposed the siege. So the Iranians knew that was happening. But the Iranian. The difference between Iran and the United States was that the Iranians, Iranians were willing to implement the deal, but not the Americans. But the Iranians, they took that opportunity to export a lot of oil and to import critical supplies to prepare them for the next phase. But I think that ultimately, if the United States, the Iranians are not in the mood for negotiations, but if the United States wants to solve the problem, I think that the MOU will not be enough free. They will demand. They will demand that the United States first carries out certain things before the Iranians do anything. And they will also be explicit in including Yemen and Gaza in the negotiations. That's my, that's my guess.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Gaza, too. Very interesting. Retired General Keith Kellogg, who felt has held a variety of roles both in the first and the second Trump administrations, took to Fox News to push for a significant escalation. This is a seven, guys. Let's go ahead and play.

[Retired General Keith Kellogg]

This here is a concern I do have for Iran, though. You have played sports. I've played sports. We've watched sports. And you let a team hang around a baseball team in the ninth inning or a football team in the fourth quarter, where you are clearly the better team. You should have closed them out in the first quarter, not the fourth or the first inning, not the ninth inning. And as long as they stick around, the more dangerous they become. And that's kind of where we're at right now. And I think the president's going to close it out. He should close it out. There's a few things he should do. I think one is on negotiations. Let's not negotiate. I'm not negotiating with these guys. We're going to dictate the terms of the war. And it is a war that's going on right now. We're going to keep taking out their leadership. The whole policy about decapitation, we need to continue that. If that means taking out Bahiti or Rachi or anybody else like that, that's fine because it destabilizes the regime. The other Part, because it gives you leverage, is I would take the islands of Kharg island and Lara island, which is like, it's further to the east, but it's like the command and control center of the Gulf, and you take them to give the president leverage. Now I own something you don't have anymore. We'll give it back to you at the end of this war if you need it, or we're just going to keep it forever. The other thing I think we should be doing is, look, let's go. And if it takes a presidential finding or something like that, let's start figuring out how we can help the Iranian people organize the resistance against the theocratic regime.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So Professor Trump, in addition to that on Fox News, very influential, and this particular individual, also very influential. Trump has directly said he plans to attack Pickaxe Mountain. I'm wondering from your perspective within Iran, what people are sort of expecting Trump's next move to be.

[Ashley Iconetty]

Be.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Well, first of all, I'd like to point out that I'm really surprised that he, he, he was a general. I fought in war, but I was just an ordinary volunteer and foot soldier. What strategic value would Clark island have? How is it a command and control center? It's a flat piece of land which, which has, I mean, right now, Iran is not exporting oil because there's a sea siege. So it's, if they take it, there's. It's a flat island and the Iranians will just simply start hammering it day and night and kill U.S. troops. And so is that going to stop Iran? I mean, right now, Iran is striking US Bases in Jordan. That's like a thousand kilometers away or in western Saudi Arabia. So why does Iran need to be standing alongside the shores of the Persian Gulf Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz to block ships? This is not like the 18th century. It's not even the 20th century. This is the 21st century. It's the era of missiles and drones. So if Iran can hit US Bases in Jordan and destroy their key assets or in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere, then what purpose would it have for them to carry out this sort of attack? I find it amazing that he ever became a general at all. But I think the most important thing here for me is that if this war expands, first of all, if the global economy collapses, that means the US Economy will collapse. And I think that the United States will have to withdraw not just from our region, but from across the globe. A global economic depression will mean that we will all lose job. Jobs will be lost, businesses will collapse, perhaps factories will shut down. There won't be money insecurity everywhere. I don't think he quite comprehends what that means for the globe. Tens of millions of people, perhaps maybe hundreds of millions of people will be on the move. I mean imagine, let's say Latin America, people losing their livelihoods. Where are they going to go? I mean North America may not be any better, but people will still go to North America. It's sort of like the Grapes of Wrath where people went to California, moved towards California, even though things weren't all that great over there either. So I don't think they quite comprehend what that means. And there's another factor as well. Yemen is now in the fight. The resistance in Iraq is larger than the resistance in Lebanon. They have at least 150,000, maybe 200,000 people right now prepared to fight. And they're, we're well armed. So you have Iran, you have the resistance in Iraq, you have Yemen. Who does the United States have? It has like what Bahrain, it has the Emirates. I mean, do they even have a fighting force? And now Saudi Arabia is, it can't export oil. These are countries that are literally almost 100% dependent on oil or gas. They're deserts and if their critical infrastructure is destroyed then tens of millions of people will have to leave the Arabian Peninsula again. I don't think he quite understands what an all out war means. And they already tried that anyway with Iran. Decapitate. I mean you can't get higher than Ayatollah Khamenei. They martyred him. Nothing. We didn't have a leader for two weeks because the assembly that chooses the leader in accordance with the Constitution couldn't gather together for two weeks because of the strikes. So for two weeks we didn't have a leader. We had a council in accordance with the constitution. But you know, but still they fought back. The streets were being cleaned at night, people were going to supermarkets. No one emptied the shelves of supermarkets. So why does he even think that if they try that again, it's going to succeed? The only difference is that if they go after Iran's critical infrastructure, this time round, Iran is going to do the same and we're going to literally be living in a completely different world if that happens.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, Professor Morandi, we really appreciate your time. Thank you so much for joining us, sir.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

It's always a pleasure. Thank you for having me.

[Ashley Iconetty]

This is Ashley Iconetti from the Ben and Ashley I Almost Famous podcast. Ben, I've been reflecting a lot lately on how many big life moments our listeners have experienced with us.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it's pretty wild.

[Ashley Iconetty]

They've watched us go from dating shows to engagements, weddings, babies, buying homes. Every stage comes with new decisions.

[Krystal Ball]

The milestones are the fun part, but the planning is where things get real.

[Ashley Iconetty]

That's why Klarna stands out. Klarna gives people smarter tools to help manage everyday money with flexible ways to pay cash back that builds automatically everything in one place place and support that makes everyday decisions feel less overwhelming.

[Krystal Ball]

Since life moves so fast, the right tools can help you feel more confident. Download the Klarna app today or visit klarna.com to learn more.

[Glenn Washington]

California Resident Loans made or arranged pursuant to a California Finance law license and MLS number 1353190 Klarna balance account required to be eligible for cashback points Limitations, terms and conditions apply.

[Tony Ayo]

This is Tony Ayo from the Real Report with Tony AO and Uncle Murder. You ever notice how everything keeps going up? Rent's going up, streaming services are going up. Even your favorite burrito spot suddenly thinks salsa should cost extra. But with Boost Mobile, you and your phone bill don't have to play the Will this go up soon? Game because Boost Mobile has an unlimited talk, text and data plan at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for life, meaning you're set to never worry about your bill increasing again for as long as you're on the plan. While the world keeps finding new ways to nickel and dime, Boost Mobile gives you unlimited wireless at one set price for life. Imagine something in your budget actually staying the same. You'll pay the same for unlimited wireless when you're posting mirror selfies in your 20s, and when you're posting mirror selfies in retirement, some things never change. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up. Only at boost mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan.

[Glenn Washington]

Every week, the Snap Judgment podcast drops you inside someone's biggest decision. The kind of decision you can only make once with everything on the line. What do you believe? What do you want, and what would you risk to get it? Find out. Snap Judgment New episodes every Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Krystal Ball]

Turning now to the Pentagon, which is currently shaking down the American taxpayer for some $1.5 trillion, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth went before Congress and said that the greatest national security threat America faces if he doesn't get his outrageous Budget. Let's take a listen. As I have said before, not fully funding this department, the Department of War, and we know what that means, that that means 1.5 trillion. Given the world that we live in and the disaster of what the Biden administration budgets gave us, not funding this department at 1.5 trillion, I believe is the greatest threat that our nation faces. The greatest threat our nation faces is an extra $500 billion, which they didn't originally need and made up a number out of completely whole cost. This comes as the Pentagon, this part is real, actually is running out of money because of the Iran war. They are almost 100% lying to us about the cost. And I'll break that down just here in a moment. But one of the funny things is I've been reading a ton of the stuff behind the scenes. The lawmakers, they've been bringing the lawmakers to the Pentagon for four to six hour meetings where they have chips and dip and AI powered PowerPoints and they're just walking them through why they need, need all this money. And even the Republicans are like, I just don't get it. They're like, where is the money going? And so the money.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And the Pentagon doesn't know either.

[Ashley Iconetty]

And they don't.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, it's all passing their own audit.

[Ashley Iconetty]

It's complete.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Exactly.

[Krystal Ball]

So first of all, they haven't passed an audit in five years. But the thing is, is it's entirely a slush fund, basically, either for the Iran war or the whatever pet projects that these Trump people have got going on in the background for drones or all kinds of these boondoggles that they have no, zero justification. And if you look, and I have, I've brought many of these up in the past of these past projects, of the promised funding. I brought it up in our last show, $500 million to produce these new or to reproduce these 155 millimeter shells which were all given to Ukraine. And it's like, oops, in the four years. So almost the entirety of the United States experience in World War II before we appropriated that money to today, not a single shell has rolled off of the assembly line. 500 million. 500 million. It's gone. So how did that happen? Nobody can actually tell you why that happened. Basically they bought the wrong part or they made the wrong bet. I'm like, you couldn't have fixed it like two years ago, three years ago? And then the Army's like, don't worry about it. We'll eventually, we'll get it. There are all kinds of these types of reports. And at the same time that they're shaking us down for 1.5 trillion, the Pentagon is also stop releasing the F35 report, which is due every single year to Congress. Right? So they're covering that up. Whatever happened with that F35 over Iran, as well as the one that got clipped by the Houthis. They are stopping the release of all of these normal reports which are congressionally mandated by Congress so that the public can figure this out. And then telling us with a straight face, if we don't get this 1.5 trillion, then this is the greatest threat that our country faces. It's insanity how this has been normalized.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Ken Klippenstein has a piece up to put all of this into perspective and he says that all of World War II, all of it from 1941 to 1945 cost the US an estimated 4.5 trillion in today's inflation adjusted dollars. Hegseth wants to spend even more than that over the next four years. He is asking for more money than we spent in all of World War II. If you want another comparison, let's take a look at how much does Iran spend for their military. 7.4 billion. And we brought you earlier this week that Washington Post report where military analysts were saying, hey, we're running low on basically everything. We cannot safely sustain this pace at all. It's not just, you know, it's not just certain categories, missile interceptors or whatever, that we're running low on. We actually are running low on everything. We cannot continue in this direction. And the White House is maybe not aware of what's going on here. I think any American has to look at this and be like, what are you doing? What is this money going towards? At a time when, you know this administration, a lot of fanfare at the beginning about Doge and we gotta cut the debt and the deficit and we're spending way too much money. And then you'll just casually go in and demand $1.5 trillion and say it's the greatest threat to the country if we don't fork it over. No. For a war that we don't even wanna be in. I mean, it's complete and utter insanity. And so of course, members of Congress, actually, I mean, certain, certainly Democrats, but Republicans are feeling some pressure on this too, as he comes out, you know, hat in hand, begging for more billions to fund something that no one wanted in the first place.

[Krystal Ball]

Right? And actually just I'm going to show everybody Pentagon math. So here's Hegseth on what the cost of the Iran war is. He says 37.5 billion. Then I'll show you what it actually costs. Let's take a listen. I've been listening patiently while you made your presentation. You estimated at one point that the cost of the war in Iran was 20, 29 billion dollars. But then added a caveat that there was a replacement of munitions. For example. Do you have a new estimate about what the war has cost us so far in this, the fifth month of the first year of this war in Iran? Senator, the estimate we have as of today is 37.5 billion. And is the current activity which we have been told about the exchange of fire back and forth in Iran an indication that number is going to go up in the months ahead? Ahead, Some of that number captures additional O and M mil pay and other that would be anticipated through the fiscal year. So some of that anticipates what cost would be going out in the future as well. So the new number you've given me is what? 37.5 billion. And that represents the cost of the war through what period of time? Through now for certain aspects of it. But also mil pay, O and M other anticipated costs through. Through September 30th, Senator. All right, 37.5 billion. That's Pentagon math. Now let's look at actual math. Let's put this one up here on the screen. The real cost is somewhere around 100 billion. And by the way, even that is a little bit of a low ball. So how exactly does the Pentagon secretary go before Congress and say under oath that it's 37.5 billion? Well, you actually kind of heard it in. His response is not counting munitions and replacement costs, which is kind of an insane way to actually count it. And if anything says that just operating costs absent of what was shot is 37.5 billion should get everybody a heart attack if the real cost is 100 billion. I just wanna put this into perspective for Everybody. For the 20 years that the United States spent trying to rebuild the Afghan national security forces, 20 years. We all remember what that project was like. The total cost of that operation was $100 billion. So 100 billion spent in 100 days versus 20 years. That's how much more efficient we've become at throwing away money and where did the money go? Exactly. We can actually see that they're flat going broke because of the way that the budget is allocated. So let's put the next one up here on the screen and this again shows you why they're so desperate for this $1.5 trillion cash injection, the Pentagon faces a urgent budget shortfall because of the Iran war. Already they are limiting training and maintenance that help maintain military readiness. They continue to short several other critical departments of the Pentagon. The White House has now asked for an immediate infusion of 67 billion. Remember, that's 30 billion more than. Than Pete Hexth just said that the Iran ward costs just to help cover some of the costs. If you continue to actually look at where some of this stuff is going, you could see that it comes largely from airstrikes. It comes from replacement of munitions. It comes also from the operating costs of all of these different aircraft carriers, these strike groups, the forward deployment, the amount of resources and overtime and other things that they have to pay over here. This is just the direct cost of the war itself. This doesn't even factor in munition replacement. And that's with the 100 billion, that figure that I'm talking about. So the real cost is probably 2 to 300 billion, which is insane. I mean, that is so categorically nuts. At the time when I covered Afghanistan, I was like, this is more than we spent in Vietnam. And somehow we've blown out the Vietnam budget in 100 days. Think about it. That was 500,000American troops were there and all the other insanity that we're doing. To be clear, I'm just talking specifically about the Afghan national security costs. But if you want to put Iraq into that too, 4 trillion, again, it took 16, 17 years. I mean, we're on track actually already, and we don't even have any troops that are on the ground. Imagine what that will cost.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And it also doesn't take into account rebuilding the bases that have been obliterated. But those bases may never be rebuilt. I mean, there may be no reason to go back to the. Clearly, the basing strategy has completely failed. I don't know that those countries are going to be super excited about us going back in and rebuilding and setting up shop after all of this, whenever all of this is over. But yeah, you just look at it and you're like, where is the money going? Like, what are you actually, you're out of everything. You're having to skimp on training and maintenance and you're begging for more billions. Like, what is actually happening here? I genuinely don't understand. And by the way, they don't really understand either because they can't pass an audit. So they don't know where the money is coming from. You know, going to either. Ryan made A good point. He's like, how do you know you're out of money when you can't even do your own audit? Like, what? How does that even work?

[Krystal Ball]

No, what happens is you check the bank account and you see that it's low, but you don't know where it all went. I mean, we're a small business. I can't even run shit like that. They're the government.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. Meanwhile, it's like, well, we need ammo, but you know, that'll take years and we're low on this. And that radar system is defunct. And what has happened, I mean, it really speaks to the way that we have outsourced all of this to these grifting military industrial complex defense contractors. They jack up the price on everything. We're completely beholden to them. There's an absolute revolving door between the Pentagon and between industry. No one has any incentive to do anything intelligently or in a cost effective way. Meanwhile, Iran is churning out their shahed drones at low cost like there's no tomorrow. They actually, as a middle income country, have maintained their industrial base. So they're able to do that and spin up production, no problem. Here we are the supposed superpower and there's no equivalent ability to flip a switch and in anything approaching a cost effective manner, spin these things up. So I mean, it's just a complete indictment of the entire system that we have constructed. And Rubio has the gall to come out and be like, the Iranians are spending all their money on their military rather than helping their people. First of all, we're attacking them. So they're under existential threat. I imagine there are people right now are quite understanding of why the military budget needs to be upped a little bit while they're directly at war with us and with Israel. By the way, everybody else in the region who these attacks are being launched from. Second of all, look at our country. Trump literally came out and said, well, we can't have nice things. Cause we gotta spend all this money on our military. Like this is what you're. 1.5 trillion. And it's the greatest threat to our country if we don't hand all of that over to them.

[Krystal Ball]

And 1.5 trillion, for what? What will it get us? More munitions? Cause that's what they always say, more money. Where's the bullets? The bullets don't exist. It's like, where's the Tomahawk missiles? Oh, that'll be six years. Sorry. Remember I covered the story how Japan. So we went to Japan and we shook them down. We're like, hey, you guys gotta buy some Tomahawks. The Japanese are like, okay, we'll buy some. Here's our money, here's the order. And then you know what happened? We launched the Iran war. And we're like, yeah, you're gonna have to wait a few years for those Tomahawk missiles, if they come at all, sometime in the future. That's one minuscule example. And this whole supply chain, it's a nightmare from the Tomahawk missiles. I was talking to you guys privately about gun cotton. There's one, one factory in the whole United States makes gun cotton. It's one of the most critical inputs for these artillery shafts. One, it's in Radford, Virginia. If it goes on fire, which is a highly flammable substance, good luck, we're out. And so is half of NATO where they import 40 something percent of their gun cotton also comes from that same factory. What are we gonna do? And there's no modernization, there's no actual like efficiency. You're talking about the Shahed drone. It costs 20,000 to 100,000 a something like these Tomahawk missiles, 4 or 5 million, you know, and they have to be built in one factory in Arizona. Where is the money going? For what purpose? And like no other. And not to say government is a business, but the sheer like even attempt at trying to have some level of efficiency. And then if you're going to say that we're running it like the government, we should make it hardened, as in not very vulnerable to potential disasters or problems like a fire, I don't know, at one factory where. Which is deeply critical. They don't even do that, you know, the F30. All they're doing is covering up all of the problems that exist in these gigantic boondoggles. And all of us are the ones who are paying for the. It only goes exponential in terms of the cost. That's what's so staggering. When you compare the Afghan conflict to this one, you're like, how did you accomplish the boondoggle that we all saw in the withdrawal in just 100 day period? It's genuinely stunning.

[Saagar Enjeti]

One Tomahawk missile, single missile, 18 to 24 months from the moment of orders. I'm trying to say two years.

[Krystal Ball]

People who listen, like, they think I'm exaggerating. If anything, I'm underplaying it. Like you need to go. All of this, the word this is what they're trying to do. They're actually stopping. Like I said earlier, the release of these open Source documents on Thad and on Tomahawk. People accuse me of saying, how would you know the stockpile? I go, luckily we actually have Congress, which is mandated. You just have to release the report. You don't know the exact number, but based on a general estimate, you can do plus or minus 5 to 10%. We actually do know a lot of this stuff has been highlighted in the open source environment. So, yeah, almost 60 to 80% of the thads are gone. Gone. I mean, it will take five years at a minimum just to replace that. And we continue to fire today. I mean, the actual cost, one actual cost estimate of the first 60 days of the war was 82 billion.

[Glenn Washington]

Billion.

[Krystal Ball]

That was 40 days ago. It's like when you start to put all this stuff together, it's nuts. There's no accountability in our government. And just to continue this, here we have Mike Waltz getting grilled by Ted Lieu, who is also trying to underplay the amount of people who have now been killed in the Iran war. Let's take a listen.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

How many American troops have been killed

[Krystal Ball]

in the Iran war war in these ongoing operations? 18.

[Retired General Keith Kellogg]

Okay.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Now, President Trump has repeatedly stated that Iran's military was obliterated. On March 16, President Trump stated that Iran's military was, quote, literally obliterated, end quote. How is it possible that 482American troops have been wounded and 18 service members killed by a Iranian military that's been purportedly obliterated?

[Krystal Ball]

The Iranian navy, air force, air defense system and industrial capacity have been massively damaged, if not completely ineffective. But this is a state that is trying to reconstitute. This is a state, a regime that is obsessed with a nuclear weapon. And it's a regime that still maintains some missile and drone capability that it's firing on all of its neighbors, including our bases. I think that's a pretty common sense evaluation. But if I need to explain it to you further, I can.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

You need to explain to American people how an Iranian military that's been purportedly obliterated killed 18 year service members and wounded 480.

[Krystal Ball]

As you know, seven of those servicemen.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Let me finish.

[Krystal Ball]

So there you go.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Died in a plane crash.

[Krystal Ball]

They died in a plane crash. First of all, that plane crash. Yeah, there's a lot of questions about that one in terms of what they claim. Also, where are those pilots? Anybody seen them?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Weird.

[Krystal Ball]

Been a few months.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You know, there was. There was another hot exchange between them where Lou asked him, you know, how many US Troops have been wounded in Iran? And Walt is like, maybe around 100. It's like, no, it's 482. How do you not know that? And I mean, it is utterly disgraceful. And so obviously he's getting caught there in the fact that Trump is constantly making these grandiose pronouncements about how they're obliterated and we won the war and their nuclear program is obliterated and all of these things. Well, if the nuclear program's obliterated, why are we now getting all this propaganda about Pickaxe Mountain? If the nuclear program was obliterated, why did we do this war in the first place? If the Iranian military is obliterated, how are they still able to kill our service members, take on our raid radars and wreak destruction across the entire region? So sometimes Trump's lies do meet with reality in a way that becomes somewhat undeniable.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's very true. Last thing, I just wanna flag this for everybody. B6. This would be an insane thing. And it looks like it's going to happen. Trump is now saying that Republicans should add Iran to the Russia sanctions bill. For those of you who don't know, the entire Congress is currently united in honoring Lindsey Graham. Graham by putting these massive sanctions on the Russian economy, so called secondary sanctions. And now they want to add Iran, per Trump, in the honor of the great Lindsey Graham, who would have wanted this. So what this piece of legislation would do is it would be even more of an economic declaration of war on the Russian economy. You can support that, not support that. I can tell you it all certainly will continue to send oil prices higher because that's the way that they're mostly obviously funding their economy. And also in terms of the Iranian economy, it would also give Trump massive presidential and discretionary power to use the same type of national security authority he originally imposed his original tariffs on. So it's not really just about Russia and it's not just about Iran, really. What they're doing is passing one of the most neoconservative pieces of legislation ever forward in the name of national security or Ukrainian democracy or whatever. Adding Iran in there, there, and it would absolutely cripple even more of the black market oil, which is currently on the market. You may say that, oh, that's a good thing. But of course, coming at this current time, it gives Trump more extraordinary powers and would further hurt, actually, and probably drive oil prices even higher. So if that's something that you want, then I guess that's something that you should support. So that was the last thing I just wanted to put on everybody's radar. It's very, very underplayed in Washington because the whole, the whole neocon media supports it. But it's a terrible piece of legislation that they didn't want to pass originally because they knew it would genuinely leave us no negotiating options whenever it came to the Kremlin. And yet, of course, in honor of Lindsey, that's what we all have to do. All right, let's get to the polls. Some so called SUVs feel more like toys. You need a real vehicle that'll handle real life. A real SUV like the all new 2027 Kia Seltos with its best in class interior room. It'll make the others feel like toys. Check out the new 202027 Kia Seltos X line. It's real world ready movement that inspires limited inventory Available comparison based on publicly available data regarding Cargo Room in 2026 entry All Wheel Drive CUVs as of May 2026 entry All Wheel Drive CUV Class as defined by Kia Segmentation the

[Saagar Enjeti]

Hulu Original Series Furious is now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney.

[Krystal Ball]

Starring Emmy Rossam as Alice Black, Furious

[Saagar Enjeti]

follows a rookie FBI agent on the hunt for Catherine, played by Lola Petticrew, a mysterious and calculating female serial killer. While Alice upholds justice, Catherine kills for it, terrorizing the rich and powerful men of New York in her pursuit of vengeance. With secrets that change everything, Alice discovers there's a thin line between hunter and prey. Watch the Hulu Original Series Furious, now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney for bundle subscribers. Terms apply.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Now more than ever, America needs a laugh.

[Glenn Washington]

Enter the Super Troopers to the rescue.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Vermont's finest and most shockingly offensive mosquito. Mustachioed highway patrol officers return to the

[Glenn Washington]

big screen in Super Troopers 3 with

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

more pullover pranks and more over the top shenanigans than ever in this latest

[Glenn Washington]

installment of the cult comedy classic, Rat.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Farva's wildly over the top Indian engagement

[Glenn Washington]

to Thorny's sister spirals out of control.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

A debaucherous bachelor party, a wedding that

[Glenn Washington]

Thorny is desperate to stop, and a dangerous drug smuggling ring all threaten the

[Krystal Ball]

troupe's friendships and family future.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Fill your leader of cola, grab your buds and roll up to the multiplex

[Glenn Washington]

for Super Troopers 3 only in theaters August 7th. Get tickets.

[Professor Said Mohammad Morandi]

Meow.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.