7/28/26: Trump Admits Weapons Shortage, Americans Cut Back On Groceries, Abdul Vs Haley Debate

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — Podcast Summary

Episode Date: July 28, 2026
Episode Title: Trump Admits Weapons Shortage, Americans Cut Back On Groceries, Abdul Vs Haley Debate
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Saagar Enjeti, Emily Jashinsky (guest co-host)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into several interrelated crises currently gripping American politics and society: President Trump’s candid admission of U.S. weapons shortages during the ongoing war with Iran; the bleak reality of Americans cutting back on groceries amidst soaring prices; and a fiery Michigan Democratic Senate primary debate between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, reflecting rifts within the Democratic Party over money in politics and foreign policy. The hosts also analyze the broader implications of these crises for the 2026 midterms and party control, touching on economic pessimism, voter turnout challenges, and the rising discontent amongst Democratic grassroots.

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Main Topics and Key Discussion Points

1. Trump’s Admission of Weapons Shortages & the Iran War

[04:38–15:22]

• Trump's Iran War Speech:

  • Trump claims decisive action in Iran and Venezuela, reiterates the rationale: "We cannot let them have a nuclear weapon. It's very simple." ([05:08], Donald Trump)

• Depleting Weapon Stockpiles:

  • Trump, for the first time, acknowledges shortages of sophisticated U.S. weaponry, blaming Biden for giving away stockpiles to Ukraine:

    “So much was given to Ukraine by Biden. When I left, the cupboards were full. ... We're in very good shape. But for some of the more sophisticated stuff, we'd certainly like that more. Biden gave a lot of it away.” ([08:13], Donald Trump)

  • Saagar highlights reports of the military having to ration Patriot interceptors and pick which targets to protect—a clear sign of American vulnerability ([09:22], Saagar).

• Strategic Futility and Asymmetric Warfare:

  • The conversation shifts toward how even full stockpiles wouldn’t achieve U.S. objectives in Iran, given Iranian strategies, underground facilities, and modern asymmetric warfare expertise.

    “Even if the cupboards were full ... you still would not, with conventional weaponry and a air campaign, be able to achieve your objectives in Iran.” ([09:22], Saagar)

  • Krystal cites data: 1,000 Tomahawk missiles fired (from a baseline of 3,000), 1,400 Patriot missiles used—years needed to rebuild stocks. ([10:59], Krystal)

• Consequences for U.S. Global Position:

  • The episode suggests that Trump and Netanyahu might go down in history not as triumphant leaders but as those who “destroyed and ended the American empire” and “destroyed the state of Israel” respectively ([17:20], Saagar).

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Saagar, on Limits of Power:

  “The very nature of warfare has changed ... even if you had full stockpiles at this point, you aren’t gonna be able to do anything anyway.” ([09:22])

• Krystal, on Political Impact:

  “He’s in this between a rock and a hard place of his own fault. ... if you are running for Congress as a Republican right now, you’re looking at this in terror." ([15:22])

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2. American Economic Pain: Groceries, Gas, and GOP Malaise

[25:07–39:40]

• Trump’s Economic Messaging vs. Reality:

  • Trump touts "the single greatest year we’ve ever had as a country" ([25:19], Trump), while Americans face sky-high grocery and gas prices.

• Republican Enthusiasm Crisis:

  • Washington Post headline: “Republicans see scary lack of enthusiasm among core voters ahead of midterms.”
  • Key insight: 20% of Republican base is at risk of staying home or voting Democrat ([27:35], Saagar).
  • Example: Iowa Trump voter calls past three elections “the worst three mistakes I’ve ever made in my life” due to unmet promises and soaring costs ([29:16], Krystal).

• Grocery Spending and Inflation:

  • Bain and Nielsen data: grocery units sold down 1.8% YoY; food inflation persists but no longer offsets volume drops ([33:08], Krystal).
  • Viral TikTok trend: Americans comparing receipts, shocked by price hikes since 2019 ([34:13], Saagar).

• Polls and Trump's Approval:

  • Harry Enton:

    “Nearly three in five voters say that Trump is making them financially worse off. ... 59% say the U.S. economy is getting worse.” ([35:46])

  • Issue for the GOP: Lack of a potent rallying message—culture war issues considered insufficient against dire economic mood ([36:43], Saagar).

• Health Care Policy as a Talking Point:

  • Trump’s healthcare promises (“Great Health Care Plan”) dissected; hosts dismiss impact as hollow and impractical ([39:25], Saagar and Krystal).

Notable Quotes

• Saagar on Economic Messaging:

  "Many a president has crashed into the rocks trying to convince voters that the economy is good when the economy is not, in fact, good." ([27:35])

• Krystal on Voter Mood:

  “Your average American is really feeling a lot of pain and a lot of despair about the direction that the country is going in and what the prospects are for them and their children.” ([34:13])

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3. Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens

[42:07–59:15]

• Abdul El-Sayed’s Anti-AIPAC Crusade:

  • Abdul repeatedly attacks Stevens for taking over $46 million from AIPAC and other corporate donors, connecting campaign finance to foreign policy—specifically opposition to U.S. support for Israel's actions in Gaza:

    “So it starts with being able to say I’m the only candidate in this race who doesn’t take any money from corporations ... that money sent over there to kill kids and women is the worst use of our tax dollars.” ([42:37], Abdul El-Sayed)

• Money in Politics as Proxy for Larger Discontent:

  • Krystal and Saagar argue money in politics is now a “catch-all” for wider voter rage about corruption and the political system ([44:55], Krystal).

• Stevens' Defensive Tactics & Debating Weaknesses:

  • Stevens attacks Abdul over (now-released) financial disclosures and tries to reframe him as an unserious “celebrity senator”—neither tactic lands effectively ([46:17], Saagar/Stevens).
  • Stevens fumbles lines and struggles to project confidence, giving Abdul an edge in debate performance and perceived authenticity ([49:51], Krystal and Saagar).

• Grassroots Discontent vs. Establishment Endorsements:

  • Voter confronts Stevens over Gaza:

    “Those six year olds that I coach here, they’re just as precious as the 6 year olds in Palestine. And it just absolutely breaks my heart when I see limbs missing... I feel like my country is directly responsible...” ([55:04], Michigan voter)

  • Despite establishment endorsements (Whitmer, Gary Peters), Democratic base—especially motivated progressives—appear energized against establishment figures like Stevens ([59:15], Saagar/Krystal).

Notable Quotes

• Saagar on Dem Primary Dynamics:

  “The credibility that the Democratic elite previously had with the base is completely shot. Their electability arguments are completely shot after handing the White House back to Donald Trump.” ([63:29])

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4. Wider Democratic Party Turmoil & 2028 Primary Changes

[59:15–68:23]

• DNC Disarray:

  • Reports of financial instability, drama, and leadership crises at the DNC (e.g., fundraising issues, phone-throwing incident involving Chair Ken Martin).
  • Lagging enthusiasm in Democratic base outside of energized progressive/anti-establishment pockets ([62:14], Krystal).

• DNC’s New Primary Schedule as Anti-Progressive Maneuver:

  • DNC moving South Carolina’s primary to first position, hoping to bolster establishment candidates with older Black voters, but this time may not serve as kingmaker ([63:29], Saagar/Krystal).

• Racial Politics Weaponized:

  • Party chair’s quote frames primary order changes as a contest over which demographic group “matters more,” revealing tactical, not moral, calculus ([66:31], Saagar/Krystal).

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Notable Quotes

• Donald Trump (Weapons Shortage):

  “We have a lot. I'd like to have more, to be honest, but so much was given to Ukraine by Biden. ... For some of the more sophisticated stuff, we'd certainly like that more.” ([08:13])

• Krystal Ball (Groceries):

  “Grocery units ... fell 1.8% in June from a year earlier, a sharp reversal ... prices continue to rise about 2 to 3% year over year, that inflation cushion for the industry is no longer enough.” ([33:08])

• Abdul El-Sayed (AIPAC Money):

  “$60 million from outside organizations in this race didn’t just come from nowhere ... That money sent over there to kill kids and women is the worst use of our tax dollars.” ([42:37])

• Michigan Voter (Gaza):

  “Those six year olds that I coach here, they’re just as precious as the 6 year olds in Palestine. ... I feel like my country is directly responsible for those actions and needs to stop.” ([55:04])

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Important Timestamps & Segments

• Trump’s Michigan Rally & Iran Remarks: [04:38–06:12]
• Weapons Shortages & Policy Consequences: [06:42–10:59]
• Sanctions & Life in Iran – Shane Smith Interview: [19:31–22:44]
• Republican Enthusiasm Crisis & Economic Despair: [25:07–35:46]
• Harry Enton Poll Analysis: [35:46–36:43]
• Abdul vs. Stevens Debate & Money in Politics: [42:07–49:01]
• Michigan Voter Confronts Stevens on Gaza: [54:03–56:06]
• DNC Dysfunction & 2028 Primary Changes: [59:15–68:23]

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Tone & Style

The hosts maintain a sharp, skeptical, openly anti-establishment style, mixing irreverence with detailed policy critique and poll analysis. They blend humor, exasperation, and genuine concern, often emphasizing the disconnect between elite political messaging and grassroots or public reality.

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Summary

This episode presents a bleak tableau for political and economic leadership in the U.S. Trump is boxed in by his own foreign policy overreach and depleted military resources. Americans, battered by inflation, are increasingly rejecting “good news” economic narratives. Republican turnout is threatened by broken promises, while Democrats face their own credibility crisis, torn between an increasingly assertive progressive base and a flailing, scandal-plagued establishment. The Michigan Senate primary becomes a microcosm of the Democratic Party’s fight over money, power, and authenticity—set against the backdrop of an apathetic or angry electorate and the continuing fallout of America’s foreign policy blunders.

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you@breaking points.com

[Saagar Enjeti]

Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. Welcome to Breaking Points. Emily, great to see you.

[Krystal Ball]

Great to see you, Crystal. Good to be here.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. A lot to get into this morning. We've got Trump saying that he is ready to go back to war with Iran, as they say they are not interested in negotiations. Americans buying fewer groceries as Trump claims. This is the best year America has ever had. I wonder if people out there are really feeling that sentiment right now. Abdul El Sayed faced off versus Hayley Stevens in a big debate last night. As that race comes to a dramatic conclusion, AI companies are buying and shredding rare books en masse in their latest assault on humanity. Mitch McConnell, is he dead or alive? The reporter who has been staking out his hospital literally every day is going to join us. I'm really excited to talk to her and learn what she has gleaned in reading the tea leaves. Some of the big questions she has about the lack of communication that we are getting from him and his team. And Francesca Hong might be the first socialist governor in American history. She is up in the Wisconsin Democratic primary. And Emily, I know you've taken great interest in this one. I mean, this is a, this would be a major, major, significant development if you had a socialist who not only won the Democratic primary, but obviously then would be in contention to become the governor of a swing state. So. So you can no longer say, oh, it's just California or it's just Brooklyn. This is a key part of the argument for socialists that they can really win anywhere.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. And Wisconsin has quite a history with socialism, so not entirely out of the question. We have some poll numbers we'll break down in that interview as well. That is. You're right, Crystal, a very big one.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Getting back to their roots, the sewer socialists, all of that sort of stuff. So love to see it. I know you do, too, Em.

[Krystal Ball]

This is just the best.

[Saagar Enjeti]

As a reminder, guys, we have our newsletter. People seem to be loving it. Sign [e-mail] youm can become a free subscriber and get access to most of that newsletter. If you want the whole thing, though, do become a premium subscriber and get the show uncut early in your inbox. All of that good stuff. So. And thank you so much for the feedback. People seem to really be enjoying the product. With that being said, let's go ahead and jump into the show. Trump gave a big speech yesterday, did a big rally in Michigan that was meant to focus on economic issues. We'll talk more about that in a moment. In the economy block however, he also talked some about Iran and gave people a new rationale or the latest rationale for why we are in this war to begin with. Let's take a listen.

[Donald Trump]

We have the greatest people, we have the best equipment in the world. I built it during my first term and I'm using it now. We had no choice. Again, we can't, we can't let what was happening in Venezuela go on. And it was very decisive, but we can't let what was and is going on. They killed 52,000 protesters. Think of it, in a four month period, 52,000 in Iran. But we've already paid for the Venezuela operation, as I said. And likewise, we're winning big time with the Islamic Republic of Iran and we're ensuring that they never have a nuclear weapon. When somebody comes up and says, why are we doing this? Just say, because we cannot let them have a nuclear weapon. It's very simple. So all you have to say, there's nothing else you have to say. If you understood the power of the nuclear weapons, you'd understand exactly what I was saying.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Of course, the reality of the situation, Emily, is that they are more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon now that we have launched this insane war than they were previously when we were negotiating with them on exactly this issue.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, and also as we're about to talk about, because Donald Trump is facing this, the weapons stockpile, if you miss out on or if you deplete the Tomahawks or that level of the supply, does Trump then feel as though his next option is something that hasn't been depleted, that's, that's more powerful tactical nukes? I don't know what it is, and I'm not saying it's going to happen, but obviously his options are narrowing right now.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What makes you raise that in particular, Emily? Because that is something that I've been concerned about as well. Especially when they started talking about Pickaxe Mountain and presumably the Israelis started floating this intelligence about, oh, that nuclear program that you've been claiming was obliterated. Actually, they moved everything into Pickaxe Mountain. Military experts say that conventional weapons would really do nothing to actually penetrate. You could collapse some tunnels or something of that nature. But as we've seen, the Iranians have proven themselves very adept at being able to dig out these facilities, whether it's the underground missile cities or, or presumably nuclear facilities as well. So when I started hearing that talk, I became very concerned. In the same direction?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, no, I think that's exactly right. And it's just been an amplification of that talk from the Israelis and some of the more hawkish people here in the United States combined with the fact that you have depleting supply of the stuff that's been used already. And so when the president feels like he's squeezed, he doesn't want to take an L and he doesn't want to escalate with ground troops, the options start to narrow in a way that's very concerning. Unless he decides once again to kind of, this might be the most likely path, take a deal and try to frame it as a dub, even if it's really an L. Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

To your point about the weapons stockpile, he was asked about this on Air Force One. And to my knowledge, this is the first time that he admitted that there might be a bit of a problem there. Let's take a listen. Are you concerned about defeated stockpiles if there is a broadening conflict in Iran?

[Donald Trump]

We have plenty. We have a lot of ammunition, different types. You know, Biden gave a lot to Ukraine, and so we're building that up. But we have a lot. We have a lot of the mid level stuff, too. I mean, more than we could ever use, no matter what, but we have a lot. I'd like to have more, to be honest, but so much was given to Ukraine by Biden. When I left, the cupboards were full. When I came here with Obama, he didn't buy ammunition. We had very little. And I got it built. Now, as soon as I left, they gave a lot of it to Ukraine. I mean, numbers that nobody's ever seen before. So we're building it very rapidly. Plants are being built. A lot of equipment is being built. The Patriots in particular are being built. The Thaad system is going up. We have a lot. Every one of our contractors is building four to five plants right now. And we're in very good shape. But for some of the more sophisticated stuff, we'd certainly like that more. Biden gave a lot of it away.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So he says there's some of the more sophisticated stuff even as he tries to downplay the overall issue. And I've been thinking about this a lot, Emily. Certainly the diminishing weapons stockpiles are something we've talked about a lot here. Even predating the Iran war is a major issue. And there was NBC News reporting that they are in fact having to ration interceptors. So they're having to pick and choose. Okay, is this a target that's so important we need to protect it or not? That shows you the limits of what we're able to do just because the lack of material. However, I was reading policytensor. I don't know if you follow him either on Twitter or I also am subscriber to his substack. And he's saying this is really kind of missing the point because even if the cupboards were full in the parlance there that Trump was using, you still would not, with conventional weaponry and a air campaign, be able to achieve your objectives in Iran. You still would not be able to fully protect your bases in the region and have that basing strategy make sense anymore, even as a lot of people are saying, okay, well now we don't have what it takes to defend ourselves and deter China. Well, China's looking at this and going, even if you had full stockpiles at this point, you aren't gonna be able to do anything anyway because the very nature of warfare has changed. So while I think this is a really important, significant near term issue which is shaping the choice array for Trump in the short term and which his commanders certainly alerting him to, et cetera, I don't actually think it is the primary issue that has led to this disastrous defeat for the US In Iran, which is more about Iran's strategic positioning, their intelligence strategy, and the way that they've much more effectively adapted to modern warfare than we have.

[Krystal Ball]

We weren't prepared. Clearly we're not prepared for the asymmetric warfare. I mean, there's just no question about it. The center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that we have fired about 1,000 Tomahawk missiles from a baseline of about 3,000. That is going to take years to recurrent constitute the supply to that level. They're estimating as many as 1400 Patriot defense missiles have been used. So this is a problem that is now going to take years to resolve. That's why Pete Hegseth was talking about, quote, critical shortfalls on Capitol Hill last week as he asked for more money. And there are companies that are trying to bring the pentagon into the 21st century and prepare it for more asymmetric warfare. But that's not what we've seen so far in Iran at all. What we've seen is, I would say, if anything, an effort to wage this conventional air war in the hopes that, again, the Netanyahu scenario of the Kurds coming in would take place. That never happens. So Trump is almost just running out the clock until he feels like he can frame something as a big win.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And we've continued to take losses. Let's put These images of the latest MQ9 Reaper drone that was reportedly shot down over Iraq. You're looking at 30 to 34 million dollars there laying smoldering on the ground. They've been able to take down a lot of these Reaper drones. And then, you know, their drones, which we have actually copied, which is quite unusual for the American military, almost unprecedented to copy an adversary's drone or weaponry like that. In any case, they're able to spin them out for much less cost. And in a very short period of time, they've maintained their industrial base so they can spin these things out and I'm sure have continued to so over the course of the war. At the same time, put a four up on the screen. This is the big latest Barack Ravid report here. He says, Trump told me we're in very deep talks with Iran. There is no indication that that is true. The Iranians are denying that they are talking with the US or that they are interested in talking with the US at this point. Trump goes on to tell Ravid, if they don't work out, we will go back to very strong military action. Asked how long he's willing to give diplomacy, the President said, not much time. Either goes to fast or not at all. This seems like another. I think there's a few things going on here. First of all, we had another sort of market manipulation move to calm things before Monday morning markets opened so you could get oil prices down so that the stock market wouldn't completely tank. So they start floating. Oh, we're doing these negotiations, we're having these talks. The bombs stopped flying. That certainly is in fact, reality. The other piece of this, though is I think that there was a, you know, there was a loss of life, our service members were killed, and there was a threat from Iran that they were gonna continue killing our service members. For every Iranian civilian who was killed, that there would be a one for one loss. And I think Trump is well aware that Americans are not prepared to accept really any losses or casualties, you know, in a normal war. Sagra and I played Ben Shapiro yesterday. I'm sure you're familiar with his comments too, where he was like, yeah, we're willing to accept casualties. Like, first of all, who are you, buddy, to tell us what we're willing to accept? But in a sense, he's correct that if you had a just war, if this was like World War II and we're up against the Nazis, yes, Americans would have a stomach for some level of sacrifice, but they have never received a straightforward justification for why this is either necessary or intelligent. You were talking about their pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Well, this has made it more likely that they pursue a nuclear weapon. The war has increasingly become about who has control of the Strait of Hormuz. Well, previously, the Strait of Hormuz was open. So not only is the war not achieving any objective, any reasonable objective you may have set has been rolled back, has been set back significantly by this incredibly stupid and disastrous war. So, no, Americans are not willing to accept any casualties, really. We're already up over 600 casualties over the course of this war, and I believe hundreds just in the past couple of weeks. So really significant, you know, injuries and damage to our service members that they'll spend their lives dealing with and recovering from. And I think Trump is smart enough to know that we really, they don't have any tolerance for that. And so when he saw this very credible threat from the Iranians, and you couple that with the low stockpile, very limited ability to deter or thwart those attacks, I think that's part of why he pulled back here as well.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, and now potentially having problems in the Red Sea, it's a mess. I mean, and that's what everybody predicted, except for one person we're going to hear from in just a moment, Mark Levin and Benjamin Netanyahu. But that's what everybody predicted basically would happen. I think the low stockpiles probably had a lot to do with this decision personally. But, you know, that's what's also really scary right now. It's he. He's in this between a rock and a hard place of his own fault. He put himself in that position by choosing who to listen to and what to do in this war. And, man, if you are running for Congress as a Republican right now, you're looking at this in terror, because all signals point to gas prices probably remaining pretty high, inflation remaining pretty stubborn over the next couple of months. And more importantly, if you're somebody who's looking to your damn bills, you're probably thinking about it exactly in the same way, because this is obviously rippled throughout the economy. Meanwhile, Crystal, let's listen to what Mark Levin thinks should happen.

[Mark Levin]

The reason this president will go down in history for a thousand years, the reason the prime minister of Israel will go down in history for a thousand years, is because they saw the danger and they stood up to the danger and they're fighting the danger. And Donald Trump will go down in our history as one of the greatest presidents ever, ever, because of what he is doing today as well as other things that he's done, but certainly because of what he's doing today in dealing with this grave threat in Iran.

[Krystal Ball]

I look forward to Mark Levin's monologue on how we are dealing with the grave threat from North Korea's nuclear missiles and ICBM capacity. He doesn't seem to have the same of concern about that, Crystal. So we are now getting his monologues to an audience of one, maybe literally an audience of one, about how great Donald Trump is.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, there's a few boomers out here who take him seriously, too, and they're not all in the White House. Just one very important yes, you know, he may be right that Trump goes down in history for a thousand years, but not for the reason that they would hope as the man who destroyed and ended the American empire. And he may be right about Netanyahu, too, that he goes down for 1000 years in history as the man who effectively destroyed the state of Israel. So it is possible that they end up as, quote, unquote, great men in history, certainly consequential men. And in a sense, I think Trump cares more about being consequential than whether the consequences of his action are for good or ill. And that's a big part. This type of language is exactly what fueled his ego driven decision to launch this disastrous war. Netanyahu, I'm sure, undoubtedly told him, this will be your legacy. You'll be able to accomplish something no other president was able to accomplish. Sir, it's all there for you. We can see how we can take out the leadership class. Iran will crumble. Ahmadinejad will rise to power. The Kurds will flood in, they'll take over these cities. And Trump, wanting high on his own supply and wanting to believe the hype and wanting to believe that he could be that consequential man in history, decided to pull the trigger and now is in an absolute disastrous trap for himself, for the country, really, for the world. One last piece here. This is Shane Smith from Vice talking about how he, in his recent trip to Tehran, he's like, you know, this economic pressure we're supposedly putting on them, they seem to be doing pretty well. And the reason this is consequential is because this is a key part of our war strategy is the economic warfare, you know, the imposition of the blockade, the longstanding sanctions regime. The idea is that we can make life so miserable for the entire Iranian population that they will buckle and they will come to the table and they will have to make concessions rather than. The dynamic right now is that we are the ones who would have to make all of the concessions. We would have to agree to allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz. That is clearly where they have drawn their red line. And they are not going to go into negotiations until that much has been made clear from the US Side. In any case, let's go ahead and take a listen to Shane Smith on the Bulwark Podcast talking about his experience in Tehran.

[Shane Smith]

80% of the people have either relatives in London or in la, like in the big Persian communities. Very well informed. Tehran is actually a sort of cosmopolitan city. What did the economic situation look like? It's nuanced. We've had these crippling sanctions. The first thing you notice is there's traffic jams everywhere, which means everyone has a car, everyone has gas. We're not crippling anything. Store is full, we hear about sanctions. The sanctions have been going on for decades. Crippled economy. And I come here and it's like all the stores are filled, all the people are shopping. America is bombing Iran. And everyone's like, hello, how are you? Nice to see you.

[Donald Trump]

You're good.

[Shane Smith]

Doesn't seem to be that crippling. The Revolutionary Guards are like the mafia. They're the import export engine. So they're just getting more powerful. They all have guns. They have all the guns. If there's regime change, they're either going to jail or getting strung up. So are they going anywhere or no? And they're making oodles of money by the way. You go around Tehran, they're building brand new skyscrapers everywhere. And I'm like, whoa, who's moving into those? We're not crippling anybody. They trade with China, they trade with Russia, fine. They can go on forever. If we think that our crippling sanctions are crippling in any way, we're wrong.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What did you think of that?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean, I think that's probably generally accurate. And on top of that, bear in mind, part of the reason Netanyahu was whispering in Trump's ear about regime change is that the regime did slaughter thousands. I don't buy the super high estimates that we get from some of the hawks, but they. The IRGC slaughtered thousands of people in January, and Netanyahu was saying, now is the time they will revolt. And that did not happen. So if that doesn't do it, the idea that the economy is going to trigger some mass revolt in Iran is foolish.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. I mean, if you think about the theoretical goals that have been floated at different times, I mean, the Most preposterous. One was always like, oh, we care about the human rights and the dignity of the protesters, please. But if your goal is we're gonna weaken the government and foment some sort of regime change, government appears to be stronger than ever, I believe. Shane Smith. I think it makes sense that they are probably making a lot of money because when you increase the black market, yes, those are the sorts of people that are going to ultimately benefit. So you've strengthened the government. If your goal is to deter them from seeking a nuclear weapon, you have made it much more likely they're gonna pursue a nuclear weapon, both by killing, murdering the previous supreme leader who had issued a fatwa against a nuclear we. And then also just through the logic of the state looking at an existential threat and saying, okay, well, how can we deter that? Let me look around the world. Looks like people are leaving North Korea alone. Maybe that's the model to go with. So on that front, you've been incredibly counterproductive if you wanted to weaken their economy. Well, now they've been able to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, very likely guaranteeing themselves a sort of endless stream of revenue from cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. So on any of the levels that you could imagine of what the goals theoretically could be, even though we've never really gotten a straight, consistent answer about what those goals are, we've set ourselves back on every single one of those goals. We were in a better place closer to the achievement of those theoretical goals before we ever launched these attacks.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean, that's a fact pattern at this point, like incontrovertible. Unless you buy into some of the deeper conspiracy theories of the Ron Hawk world. So absolute mess. And we keep seeing why every single day in Renaissance portrait form. Flamboyant, buoyantly wrong. Every single day.

[Saagar Enjeti]

All right, let's go ahead and turn now from the impact on Iran to the impact on our own economy.

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This is Charity Lawson from Bachelor Happy Hour.

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[Krystal Ball]

President Trump flew to Michigan yesterday to deliver an economic speech. And the news is good, folks. Don't worry, you're pretty much doing as as well as you ever have. Let's take a listen.

[Donald Trump]

We're having the single greatest year we've ever had as a country. We're not going to let these people destroy it. We're delivering the largest prescription drug price cuts in the history of our country by far, with differences of 400, 500 and even 600%. Nobody can believe it. We will pass the Great Health Care Plan. That's what it's called, the Great Health Care Plan. To stop all payments to big insurance companies and give the money directly to you, the people, so that they can buy their own health care, which will be much less expensive and be a much better health care.

[Krystal Ball]

Meanwhile, let's put this Washington Post headline up on the screen. Republicans see quote, scary lack of enthusiasm among core voters ahead of midterms. A little bit from the piece here, quote, Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm. Their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November's midterm elections. A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Trump's low standing in polls and the fact that the party control in Washington almost always loses seats, which, by the way, is something that Trump was saying ahead of the Iran war. He was saying, he gave a speech in Iowa, I think it was back in January, Crystal, where he was talking about how, you know, it's not a big deal. He probably won't, Republicans probably won't win the midterms. Now, not only is that historical precedent still salient, but he also has, let's just check the AAA gas price. The national average today is about $4.01. That is within 100 days of the midterm election. I think we just passed the 100 day benchmark, what, two days ago. So no wonder, no wonder they're seeing a, quote, signs or seeing signs, quote, of listlessness among the base. And I'm curious, Crystal, for your take on his messaging of the economy being he's doing a little bit of blaming Biden, but then also saying it's great, it's a total mixed message. But he's not, doesn't have much to work with at this point, of course, when he's trying to tell voters everything is just fine. And in fact, it's actually better than ever.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Many a president has crashed into the rocks trying to convince voters that the economy is good when the economy is not, in fact, good. I think it's one of the hardest things to bullshit on, even for the most effective bullshit artist perhaps of all time in American political history, Donald Trump, because people have their own individual experience with the economy. It's numbers, it's math. At the end of the day, am I able to afford what I used to be able to afford at the grocery store? Am I able to make rent at the end of the month? Am I able to even conceive of the possibility of ever becoming a homeowner? Am I able to afford my health insurance premiums? And so you can't. There's very few people, there may be a few, but there's very few people that you're going to be able to rhetorically persuade that their economic situation is different than their actual experience of it. So when he says America's having the best year of all time. There are going to be very few people who are going to be persuaded by that. And all of those people were going to be die hard Trump fans. The latest Gallup poll has only 22% of Americans who say the economy is either good or excellent. That is absolutely dismal. That piece in the Washington Post is really quite dire cuz you have them saying, you know, one in five Republican voters. So 20% of the Republican base is at risk of either staying home or voting for Democrats. That is an extraordinarily high number. I think when we're looking at the generic ballot and okay, theoretically Democrat versus Republican, et cetera, it's very hard to actually capture, but who is going to show up. And midterms are 100% a game of who is actually going to show up. And I think that lack of enthusiasm is the biggest problem for Republicans. It's not necessarily that diehard MAGA voters are in large numbers going to flip to Democrats, although I think, I think some of them will. It's that many of them will be demobilized and simply stay home. They interviewed some Trump voters in Iowa, which Iowa's the state that Barack Obama wanted, but that feels like a million years ago at this point. It shifted hard to the right, very rural. This is the type of place that has increasingly moved against Democrats. You got both a governor candidate, Democratic candidate and a Senate candidate who have been pretty consistently up in the polls, including in a recent Fox News poll, you know, Democrats winning both of those seats. So they interviewed this guy, three time Trump voter in western Iowa, which is very rural. Lance Celentic, resident of Iowa's rural Harrison county, described the past three presidential elections as, quote, the worst three mistakes I've ever made in my life, saying the President had failed to fulfill his campaign promises. Higher gas prices have been costing his family an extra 300 to $500 every month for their motorcycle and for cars. He said, quote, we voted for Trump. He did the opposite of what he said he was going to do. Gas prices were going to be $2, food was going to be cheaper, energy prices were going to be in half. We were going to get two rebate checks to the American people. We weren't going to have any new wars and we were going to build a wall and deport 30 million illegal aliens. Interesting that he's also disappointed on that front and he did none of that. So this man, you think he's gonna Trump is gonna come out and say, oh, but it's the best year of your life, sir. Don't worry. I don't think that's gonna be very persuasive for him. Emily no, of course not.

[Krystal Ball]

And one of the things we should mention about the analysis that you brought up from the Washington Post piece is that it was done by Americans for Prosperity. So that's a Kochback group that has basically it's the old Tea Party ground game, but it's still here in 2026. And they were are out making this analysis based on door knocking and actually talking to voters. So it's not even just like a cold statistical analysis. It's a lot of it is qualitative having these conversations. And we should also mention from the Post piece, the latest Washington Post and Ipsos polling on this shows that, quote, Democrats have a 10 percentage point advantage over Republicans among voters who say they're absolutely certain to vote in November. Now that is huge. Ryan and I covered last week the generic congressional ballot differences between now 2006 and 2018 Democrats. And Harry Anton, who we're going to hear from in just a moment, has pointed this out. And if you look at real clear for those years too, it's pretty obvious Democrats are lagging like they're up in the generic congressional ballot. I think it's five points last time I checked on RCP last week. They should be up higher if they're looking at like a blue tsunami year from the same points in 2006 and 2018. That doesn't necessarily mean they they won't have a blue tsunami or that those numbers won't change and be even more lopsided in their favor by the time Election Day rolls around. But as of right now, there's still work for Democrats to do to capitalize on the fact that Republican voters are possibly considering pulling the lever for some Democrats or staying home altogether. So a fascinating dynamic. Let's put the CNBC headline up US Grocery slowdown deepens as shoppers buy fewer items, raising pressure on food companies. Shoppers are buying fewer items than a year ago and grocery sales are declining as weakening. Unit sales are now outweighing rising prices, CNBC reports. This is according to a new analysis from Bain using Nielsen IQ grocery data shared exclusively with cnbc. Grocery units, which refer to individual items or products sold, fell 1.8% in June from a year earlier, a sharp reversal from the 0.1% year over year growth recorded in June 2025. While prices continue to rise about 2 to 3% year over year, that inflation cushion for the industry is no longer enough. To keep overall sales growing. So Trump went From recording a 0.1% growth year over year, his economy went from recording 0.1% growth year over year after Liberation Day, by the way, which is somewhat interesting. Obviously these adjustments can take a long time to trickle into all parts of the economy, but in the midst of the Iran war to a dip of 1.8% from June to June. So the way that Democrats are going to get Republican voters either to stay home, those one in five by November to stay home or vote Democrat. I mean this is such a gift politically. It's a tragedy for the country, but a gift politically. Crystal?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And Emily, I know we talked a lot before about how Republicans were pinning a lot of hopes on the big beautiful bill and the tax savings and the, that Americans were going to be feeling in their bank accounts and the Trump baby accounts and these sorts of things. There was a recent poll and I have the numbers in front of me that unsurprisingly American voters are very meh on the tax savings because they're, they

[Krystal Ball]

don't know what it is.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right? Number one, they don't know what it is. Number two, whatever savings they may have achieved is being instantly eaten up the very next time they go to fill up their gas tank. So you know, you Talked about We're 100 days away from the midterms, more or less. We're six months, months into the Iran war, there's no end in sight and those economic indicators are just going to continue to decline. You know, we're going to have higher, even higher grocery price. If you look at a chart at the cost of groceries over let's say the past six years, the way it's skyrocketed, it is truly jaw dropping how much more people are having to spend for the same items. I'm sure you've seen these viral tiktoks where people like pull out their receipts, their like Target receipts or their Walmart receipts, seats from 2019 and just be in shock at how much more they're paying for the exact same items. So yeah, you're not going to be able to talk that away. That is one area where people really have a very fine tuned sense of what is actually happening. Much more so I think than is even captured in the top line numbers which you know, unemployment's low. It's not like things, if you just look at these certain macroeconomic indicators, look that disaster. But your average American is really feeling a lot of pain and a lot of despair about the direction that the country is going in and what the prospects are for them and their children. And that is the reason why if we put before up on the screen, Trump is seeing his lowest approval rating or I'm sorry, this is actually a sot, a Harry Enton sot, talking about some of these poll numbers of how Americans feel about the economy and how just dismally they're rating Trump's performance.

[Harry Enton]

Promises made, promises broken in the minds of the American public. 44%, 38% said they make them worse off. Back in October of 2024. Look at these numbers now. Oh my goodness. John shaking his head off on the side now 58%, nearly three in five voters say that Trump is making them financially worse off. That's up like a rocket. The better off down through the floor. Back when Trump was reelected November of 2024, look at the that 42% of Americans less than 50 said that in fact the economy was getting worse. Look at that now 59%, 59% say the U.S. economy is getting worse. I don't know how this works for Republicans come the midterm elections when the economy is the number one issue with inflation and 3 and 5 say it's getting worse off and just about 1 in 5 saying that it's getting better. That's an equation that does not work.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And Emily, I saw Trump going back to the well and that Michigan speech was supposed to be all about the economy about like transports and utilizing kids and these sorts of culture war issues that, you know, he believes will help to rev up the base and, you know, for some, sure. But I think when you're dealing with this, you know, pessimistic of an outlook on the economy and pessimistic view of Trump's own handling of the economy. Because let's be clear, these are all complete own goals, you know, manufactured crises of his own making. I don't think the culture war red meat is going to be enough to rescue him.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, he was talking also about prescription drug prices. And the fact of the matter is health care premiums, early data for the year shows that they're likely to be increasing again this year. So he can talk about prescription drug prices that he's been able to via executive order and deals with some of these individual companies muscle down and in some cases, and I think that's good. But the overall picture is not a rosy one. And so calling attention to this, this kind of hodgepodge quilt of executive order accomplishments only goes so far when the big picture for people is not doesn't reflect the optimism that he's trying to project. And that brings us full circle to the point you made initially that it's a classic pitfall for precedence. He's not on the ballot. Which is another problem from the Washington Post article. It raised one of experts saying we have a high propensity voter problem. That is from, again, one of the right leaning experts who say, listen, Trump's not on the ballot. So not only do we not have the voters who turn out for Trump, that Trump coalition that does have more Hispanics, more men in particular, you don't have that coalition. And a lot of polling suggests it's already fractured anyway because of the war and prices and the like. But on top of that, your high propensity voters that used to make up the Republican Party base are less energized and interested now, too. So they're in an absolute mess right now.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And even on that prescription drug price thing he just announced, they just announced that they're slapping tariffs on generic drug imports, which is going to increase, logically increase the cost of those generic drugs, which are the less expensive alternatives to brand names here in the US So, so even on this one area that he's trying to claim some progress, at the same time, he is undercutting his own progress on that same issue. And then I don't even know what he's talking about with this health care plan because we've never heard anything else about it. At least I haven't. Maybe you have. I guess this is the next phase of the concept of a health care plan that we were promised in the presidential election. But I don't think anyone's holding their breath for that one.

[Krystal Ball]

No, I don't think so either. I mean, maybe they're trying to squeeze something into reconciliation. I have no idea. It seems unlikely to happen. But good luck to Donald Trump trying to convince people that it's all not just fine, but better than ever.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's right.

[Charity Lawson]

This is Charity Lawson from Bachelor Happy Hour.

[Klarna Spokesperson]

Charity, I was thinking about this the other day. What's something that you'll always say yes to?

[Charity Lawson]

That's easy. Seeing my friends, last minute girls trip. Basically making memories you'll talk about for years.

[Klarna Spokesperson]

Same. And somehow every one of these memories comes with something to plan.

[Charity Lawson]

That's so true.

[Klarna Spokesperson]

That's why Klarna stands out. It's about smarter tools that help you manage your money without taking away from the moments that matter.

[Charity Lawson]

Exactly. With flexible ways to pay cash back that builds automatically and everything in one place. Klarna helps you feel more confident making everyday money decisions because when you have

[Klarna Spokesperson]

the right tools, everything feels more manageable.

[Charity Lawson]

Download the Klarna app today or visit klarna.com to learn more.

[Klarna Spokesperson]

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[Harry Enton]

Well,

[Saagar Enjeti]

a marquee race in Michigan, that being the Senate Democratic primary is coming down to the wire. Election Day is next week. On Tuesday, Abdul Al Said and Haley Stevens faced off last night in a very interesting debate. Let's start with a little bit of Abdul criticizing Haley Stevens for the money that she's been taking. This was a primary line of attack against her throughout this entire debate night. He tied a lot of his answers back to her AIPAC funding and other corporate funding coming into her campaign. Let's go ahead and listen to that.

[Abdul El Sayed]

What are you doing? That's something that perhaps we haven't heard before in Washington. That's different. To keep the cost of living. Let's tell you, for me, it's, I don't take money from the corporations who are jacking up your prices in the first place. When you're bought off by DTE and Blue Cross and Big Pharma and Big Tech and apac, don't be surprised that there's a pro quo that comes with that quid. That money doesn't just fall off trees. $60 million from outside organizations in this race didn't just come from nowhere. It's because those exact same organizations, except expect something on the other side and that's that they get to expect to own your next U.S. senator. So it starts with being able to say I'm the only candidate in this race who doesn't take any money from corporations. Never have, never will. So I just want to say the difference between us is $46 million of APAC spending. They've set a record in this race to help elect my opponent because they know that she'll be a reliable vote. Just like she took last week to send your tax dollars to a foreign government that is aiding, arming and abetting the very people who want to foreclose on the possibility of Palestinian self determination. Look, at the end of the day, my job is to take care of you here. I want to be your U.S. senator. I want your tax dollars spent in Michigan to provide schools in Michigan, to build health care in Michigan, to build roads in Michigan. And I think that money sent over there to kill kids and women is the worst use of our tax dollars. And yet that's exactly what $46 million in spending will buy you.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And Emily, he really hit this theme again and again. You know, it's, it's really interesting and a little bit risky because I'm not sure I've ever seen campaign finance be this prominently featured in any election. You know, a lot of times both sides are taking a lot of money and it kind of gets lost in the sauce of, of who's taken what from whom. But it's a sign of the times because AIPAC has become so incredibly toxic and such an important litmus test in terms of the credibility of Democratic candidates in these primaries. I think it probably packs a punch. He also did a thing I thought was very clever where he'd say, hey, they're gonna go to commercial break. You're probably gonna see 2, 3 ads funded by AIPAC for my opponent. And let me tell you what the problem is with that and what they're saying, et cetera. So I thought it was a very interesting strategy from him.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it is interesting. And also I think for the kind of normal Michigan voter, what makes it less of a risky strategy when you think about it in the context of 2026, is that people are. People's frustrations with money and politics are boiling over because of obviously the war, because of the Gaza war. Yes, but it's I think also just a proxy crystal for people's frustration with money and politics in general and with the system. So if people on the right or in the center are saying he keeps bringing up AIPAC because of Israel, I think actually it's more than that. I mean just as we followed this issue really closely, you see people around the country reacting to aipac, not even necessarily always with a foreign policy aversion to it, but just saying what happened to Thomas Massie, for example, was gross. It was just an example of everything they don't like and don't trust about the American political system. Catch all for a lot of different, a lot of different themes. I mean between APAC data centers, which we'll talk about later in today's episode, and flock cameras like these are big. What's the best way to put it? They're sort of touchstones. They're things that represent what people hate about politics right now and they're unifying in a weird way.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, no, I think that's absolutely right. Haley Stevens, for her part, her attacks on Abdul were number one. She's been trying to make big deal about how he hadn't released his financial disclosure. That didn't land as hard. Cuz he did release his financial disclosure yesterday and there wasn't anything that was particularly scandalous there. But she was trying to still launch that attack I think as a way to kind of muddy the waters where he's saying her like she's basically corrupt and she's saying well he's corrupt cuz he's not disclosing everything about his finances. That was one of her attacks. Another one was to try to frame him. This is a way to kind of jujitsu the fact that he's much more camera ready, much more charismatic and telegenic in front of a camera than she is.

[Krystal Ball]

How dare you? How dare you.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Sorry. First of all, for all the Steven Stans out there, I know deeply sexist commentary on my part. In any case, he Tried to flip that around and say, well, we don't need. Yeah, he can go on all these podcasts. We don't need a celebrity senator. I'm the one who's in the trenches getting the work done, et cetera. In any case, let's take a listen to the way that she attempted to attack Abdul over his lack of financial training. Transparency not released.

[Haley Stevens]

Your full tax returns, $300,000 in other income while you sat in the podcast chair and you hawked junk health care cures that RFK Jr would thumbs up. You talk about getting money out of politics and putting money in people's pockets, but still no one knows who's putting the money in your pocket. You know, I have been transparent, and I am offering, you know, real plans to address the cost of living crisis.

[Abdul El Sayed]

We want to be able to tackle Donald Trump. You're talking about what you did, but you also made some accusations here, Dr. El Sayed. That is a question that some people may have. That congresswoman's talking about. Talk about the money and the financial disclosures. You were going to release something. We released all of our financial disclosures. Again, this is a distraction from the issues in your life, but not the. I'd love to talk about transparency. I really would, because I want you to ask yourself. There is this group called the center for Democratic Priorities. They didn't exist until they popped up and started running ads for my opponent. And then there's this other group called Center Forward that paid for a flight for the congresswoman and her mother to go to Portugal. And they just released their donors. And then it's a whole bunch of Shell 501C4 organizations. They're the folks who are literally putting money in our pockets right now to try and miss and disinform us about this race. No concern about the 46 million plus dollars spent on the behalf of AIPAC. That should worry people about perhaps you doing their bidding should you win the seat.

[Haley Stevens]

Well, I don't think there's much difference between Super PACs going in for Abdul or Super PACs going in for me. We have a problem with campaign finance reform. He didn't call me an ogre.

[Abdul El Sayed]

No. Again, for the record, it was Mr. Fetterman that was apparently called an ogre in the call, not you.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That last part. Oh, my God. To even get started with that. We got that cleared up. Yeah. Put C4 up on the screen. So Politico had this whole piece, piece about how there was leaked audio of Abdul talking about John Fetterman, not Haley Stevens. Saying I have no problem primaring people like John Fetterman. I have no problem to do that. Ideally you put one ogre on a pike and then everyone else gets the message and all of a sudden starts to sound a lot different. Haley Stevens and Neera Tanden tried to turn this around. Like he was talking about Haley Stevens being the ogre on a pike, which is what she said there. She gets fact checked in real time by the moderator. I think probably highlighting the fact that Abdul Al said like the entire rest of the Democratic base absolutely despises John Fetterman and thinks that he's an ogre who should be taken out. It's probably not the win, the propaganda win that they were hoping for. Em.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, she couldn't even land the plane on the financial disclosures. I mean just sometimes it's frustrating. Chris, I don't know if you ever experienced this as somebody who covers these races to watch the candidates, even when they're so bad, like Haley Stevens flustered because look right into the camera and say this is your working class champion is a hundred thousand dollar or his wife has a hundred thousand dollar rental property in Dubai. Like she couldn't even land an effective punch on that. Do I think it's a huge issue for Michigan voters? No. But it gave her something to work with.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. At least to like kind of muddy the water, right? Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

She couldn't even do it. She couldn't even do it. And she could, you could hear her trying to like interrupt and then deciding that she probably shouldn't interrupt. Like she just la. I mean it's not just Riz, but like she kind of lacks like a convincing self confidence in that setting at least.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, this is the hard thing about standing for nothing. It makes it much harder to have a convincing self to put forward. I mean genuinely, I think about Kamala Harris suffering from this. You know, we talk about Kamala Harris as untalented. It's not really true. It's very hard to not really know where you stand and have to answer all these questions about where you stand. That's really difficult. It's easier if you have an ideology and you can just take the question in and respond with what you actually think based on a well thought out ideology and some sort of principle. And so I think there's no surprise that you have this big gap in the capability and the charisma of the lefty candidates versus the centrists. Because the lefties, whether you like them or you don't agree with their worldview, they have a worldview and they're not afraid of putting it out there, not running away from it. And they. So it gives that a real leg up when you're in a situation like this and you're just having to respond to, okay, well, what is the question? What do I actually think about this? Rather than what did my briefing book say? What's the clever retort that my campaign team came up with when we were workshopping this in practice? So I think that's part of what's going on here as well.

[Abdul El Sayed]

Santana Oneness Tour 2026 from Woodstock to Supernatural and beyond with very special guest the Doobie Brothers. Get tickets now@live nation.com

[Charity Lawson]

this is charity Lawson from Bachelor Happy Hour.

[Klarna Spokesperson]

Charity, I was thinking about this the other day. What's something that you'll always say yes to?

[Charity Lawson]

That's easy. Seeing my friends last minute girls trip. Basically making memories you'll talk about for years.

[Klarna Spokesperson]

Same. And somehow every one of these memories comes with something to plan.

[Charity Lawson]

That's so true.

[Klarna Spokesperson]

That's why Klarna stands out. It's about smarter tools that help you manage your money without taking away from the moments that matter.

[Charity Lawson]

Exactly. With flexible ways to pay cash back that builds automatically and everything in one place, Klarna helps you feel more confident making everyday money decisions.

[Klarna Spokesperson]

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[Charity Lawson]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

We have another Haley Stevens moment that we wanted to highlight here and shout out to Sam Robinson, who is a journalist in Michigan. He's actually gonna join us on Friday to give us a breakdown of the radio. He's just been following the candidates around and talking to them, talking to the voters who are interacting with both Abdul and Haley, getting their sense of things. And he captured a pretty extraordinary moment here where Haley Stevens was meeting with a constituent who was a community leader. He expressed his concern over her support for the slaughter in Gaza and in a very, you know, compelling and personal way. And, you know, she really was sort of uncomfortable in the exchange and, and it was a very telling moment, I think, in terms of how voters are processing their choices here. Let's go ahead and take a look at that one.

[Michigan Voter]

I did already vote early, voted. Somebody is going to win. I do not want Mike Rogers to win. And whoever it is, like I said, it's not an issue, it's not a candidate issue, it's a human rights issue.

[Harry Enton]

Yeah, right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What's your full name?

[Michigan Voter]

Jai J A. I know I sound like a broken record. Those six year olds that I coach here, they're just as Precious as the 6 year olds in Palestine. And it just absolutely breaks my heart when I see limbs missing children, they're having to play soccer on crutches with no legs, having to live lives. And I feel like my country is directly responsible for those actions and needs to stop.

[Ryan Reynolds]

What did you make of this interaction

[Donald Trump]

that you just had?

[Michigan Voter]

What I make of. I mean, again, I. She's not a devil to me, you know, she's somebody that could potentially win the seat. And I wanted an opportunity to speak with somebody about an issue. I. And I have no Palestinian blood in me. It's just I. I have to believe what I see. I have to believe what I see. So about the interaction, it was fine.

[Donald Trump]

It was cordial.

[Michigan Voter]

We got to talk about both. I tried my best to talk about both sides of what I care about in my professional work, but also as a person.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So you see there, he says, you know, it's not a candidate issue, it's a human rights issue. And she says, yeah, okay. And she walks out. And then reporters are left there to ask him more about, okay, well, who are you voting for? Who did you vote for? And tell us a little bit more, put a little more texture. Behind why you hold these views. I think his views are entirely common within the Democratic base. And the question is not whether. Whether his view or Haley Stevens view is more popular. There's undoubtedly the case that the Democratic base is more aligned with Abdul El Sayed and with this gentleman who was speaking here. It's a question of whether that $50 million that has come into this race is gonna be enough to confuse people about Haley Stevens, about Abdul Al Said. And you would, you know, you have to take that seriously. You really do. I've seen pictures of the people's doors and just stuffed full of mailers, many of them from aipac, backed by this flood of money that has come into this race. And that's what they're hoping. They're hoping to make an example of Abdul and show that if you're on the wrong side from their perspective of Israel, Palestine, that they will come in, they will spend whatever it takes and they will make you pay. Because right now, Emily, the political incentives are shifting very rapidly in the other direction where Democrats for the first time are having to worry about that if they are too pro Israel, they are going to be primary and they're gonna suffer electoral consequences. AIPAC is trying to even the score so that they have to consider. Okay, but then am I gonna draw the ire of AIPAC and have $50 million spent against me in my primary?

[Krystal Ball]

My Bluetooth speaker just went off as. You were being very eloquent, Crystal. But yeah, it's like the turnout problem for Republicans is also a big problem for Haley Stevens because the voter that we just heard from in Michigan represents the type of person that you can pretty much be sure is going to turn out on primary day. That is somebody who is highly motivated by something they see as a fundamental human rights question, a fundamental American values question. And they see somebody who they think is just flagrantly on the wrong side of it. And so that is the person who's going to turn out. So it's a real problem for Haley Stevens that this is the issue that has motivated Democratic voters in a way that. Let's try juxtapose it with the Massey primary. Republican voters are not right now having this reckoning at large. Right? Younger Republican voters absolutely are. But younger Republican voters are not the majority of voters in a primary. And they're not even the majority of like the grassroots on the right. And that's one of the big differences, I think, between the left and the right is you have more young people involved in the grassroots level on the left. And so if you juxtapose Massey and Kentucky 4 with this Michigan primary, it's not the same dynamic at all, because Democratic voters right now see this as a litmus test for everything else, for authenticity, for corruption, and, of course, for foreign policy and humanity and decency as well. So this is the type of person that's highly motivated to come out on primary election day. And I don't know that Haley Stevens has a comparable kind of cohort on her side.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I saw someone talking. I wish I could remember who right now, but I saw someone speaking in terms of what we did in Gaza. Gaza, with our taxpayer dollars, is a moral injury to the American people. And so separate and apart from the horror that most Americans feel at the genocide being committed in Gaza with our funding and our support, it also, I think, is experienced deeply, personally. I mean, this is. It's shameful. It's horrifying that to have any sense that we were involved with this, that our money that we sent into our federal government went to these horrific crimes. And so I think that's an important lens for understanding the depth of healing around this, too. You know, that man said, look, I'm not Palestinian. I don't have any Palestinian. I don't know anybody there. But when I look at these kids that I coach, I see them as exactly the same as these kids who are having their limbs blown off. And that's unacceptable to me. So, you know, I see a lot of, like, why do people care so much about this? And I think. I think it's very easy to understand the depth of feeling around that, the level of shame that comes from having been complicit. And as you're pointing out, Emily, the way that that maps onto a whole host of political issues and how politicians are going to conduct themselves in office. On the other side of the ledger, Haley Stevens has gotten some really, I think, important endorsements. Gretchen Whitmer, who is the governor of the state, endorsed her. We'll see. That may be really impactful for some of the people who were undecided, who aren't following terribly closely who. I think she's generally well liked within the Democratic base. So she's got that going for her. Gary Peters, the current senator, also came out. Both of these people, by the way, had said they weren't gonna get involved in the race. But then when it was like, abdul's gonna win. They're like, I guess we have to decide. They were like, we're not gonna insert ourselves. We're gonna let the people decide. But Then when it started going in direction they didn't like, they changed their mind about just letting the people decide, I guess. Zooming out from the Michigan race, we were talking earlier about the broader Democratic landscape and how a lot of things are going poorly for Republicans. But it's not all rosy on the Democratic side. Could put this tear sheet up on screen. Ken Martin, who's the head of the dnc, apparently things are not going well there. They're broke. They said to spend a lot of money helping Kamala Harris pay off her debts. Fundraising is not going all that great. There's a lot of drama and infighting. There was some phone throwing incident that occurred where Ken Martin threw his phone either at the desk or I guess it's in dispute how close it came to an aid. It led to an HR complaint. There was a lot of talk about this. Anyways, just a sign that things are not going particularly well there for the dnc. And you've got all this, you got plenty of money washing into these primaries, but people are so disappeared and disgusted with the overall party apparatus that it's not exactly an exciting thing for anyone, whether a larger or smaller donor donor, to want to pony up money to this dysfunctional institution.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, and this is definitely why it's a double problem for Haley Stevens, by the way. But other candidates like her. This is definitely why we were talking about Dems lagging in the generic congressional ballot based on their own performance at this exact same part of the cycle, this point in the cycle 2006 and 2018, both Big Blue wave years, I think, because there is such disillusionment among people, particularly like you see how motivating this is in primary elections. The question of aipac, the question of Israel, it is a central motivator. It is what is fueling the Democratic Party's grassroots right now. So if you're a Democratic voter that doesn't have one of these upstart anti establishment candidates in your area, would you vote? Right. You actually might not at all. Even if you're a generally motivated Democratic Party voter, you usually show up in primaries. You can understand why there would be a lag in the generic ballot because there's such disillusionment with the way the National Party is being run, which Ken Martin, by the way, was elected specifically to fix. And there was a lot of dubiousness about whether he'd be able to do it at the time, but that was what he was supposed to do. Seems like it's only getting worse. Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And lastly in this, the DNC came together and set some of the primary calendar for 2028 with the mind to trying to thwart the rapidly rising leftist part of the party. They've been very successful at doing that in the past, but they are losing their grip simply because the left has won the argument with the base of the Democratic Party. And so even if you may be able to, and I think this is very much in doubt, rescue, let's say, a Haley Stevens, the winds are shifting and the credibility that the Democratic elite previously had with the base is completely shot. Their electability arguments are completely shot after handing the White House back to Donald Trump. Their media landscape is profoundly different from how it was even in 2020 when they were able to thwart the rise of Bernie Sanders, both with media sort of marching in lockstep for Joe Biden and also some behind the scenes maneuvering from Barack Obama and an endorsement, by the way, from Jim Clyburn, that was very consequential for Joe Biden in South Carolina. So now the move is, okay, we're not gonna wait for South Carolina to go because this is the most establishment friendly and conservative primary electorate almost in the country for Democrats. So they've decided to move South Carolina up to be first in the nation with their primary. And, and I understand what they're trying to do. I'm not sure, Emily, that it honestly serves their purposes that well, because the previous position of South Carolina was you'd already had a few states that went. You had Iowa, New Hampshire and then Nevada that had gone before South Carolina in the past. And then you come to South Carolina, it's this sort of like, marquee, consequential moment. And they were able to use that as like, okay, now black voters have had their say. Everybody else has to get up. That worked. If you have South Carolina fill in the space that Iowa previously did, Iowa's role is not, I'm going to crown the victor. Iowa's role is, okay, the people who just aren't going to be able to compete at all. It's going to winnow the field somewhat. So it served a different role. So I think maybe this doesn't work out for them the way that they're thinking it ultimately will to put South Carolina first. And rather than having it serve as the kingmaker that it has in the past past, having it serve as like the initial culling the way that Iowa used to.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. And their argument is purely on the grounds that South Carolina is more representative, but they are doing it now for a reason. More representative of the broader population, that argument has basically always existed, but they're doing it right now because they're actually scared that they've lost control right now, which might have something to do with. With refusing basically to allow Joe Biden to run in a serious contested primary election and then foisting Kamala Harris on everyone. So no surprise that they feel like their control is slipping. But yet that's a really interesting perspective on whether it even backfires on them, because they don't necessarily. I mean, they don't have control over the grassroots in general right now. It doesn't matter whether it's in Iowa or South Carolina.

[Saagar Enjeti]

By the way, latest poll has AOC doing very well with black voters. So I don't know that this is gonna be the stumbling block they think. Put this quote up on the screen to your point about why South Carolina? Because you have the party chairwoman of South Carolina weighing in with this quite telling quote. If Nevada gets elevated over South Carolina, it'd be because of their Latino vote. So you'd then be telling black voters, you matter less than brown voters. And I refuse to believe our party wants to send any type of message like that. So because South Carolina's first. Are we now saying that black voters matter more than brown voters? Is that the message that's being sent there?

[Krystal Ball]

Or the white voters in Iowa? I mean, like, it's just a key

[Saagar Enjeti]

way to divide people completely. This disgusting racial resentment politics is. So it is always weaponized to try to thwart the left. They're doing the same thing to Abdul in Michigan, by the way, who, by the way, is the person of color who was running in this race versus this white woman. And they're still trying to play this like his base is not the way. It doesn't have enough of this, doesn't have enough of that, et cetera. Jim Clyburn coming in to make these allegations, et cetera. So in any case, they made it pretty plain what was going on here, and it has all to do. They don't care about black voters in particular. They just think that those will be the voters in South Carolina. It's not just black voters. It's older black voters who are more conservative, more likely to back the establishment candidates. That has been the track record. And so that is the reason why they're elevating South Carolina. I think anyone who is looking at this with any sort of rational view can see what's going on.

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[Saagar Enjeti]

M&M's popped caramel do sound different.

[Donald Trump]

Oh, no.

[Saagar Enjeti]

People are gonna be obsessed. What do you mean?

[Krystal Ball]

People hate the sound of chewing.

[Abdul El Sayed]

Maybe they won't like the crunch.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Maybe we're saved. Wait a minute.

[Donald Trump]

Yellow.

[Krystal Ball]

Have you been eating them this whole time?

[HomeServe Spokesperson]

Mmm.

[Shane Smith]

So tasty.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Hands off us. M and M's Popped Caramel. It's more fun together.

[HomeServe Spokesperson]

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[Krystal Ball]

This is an Iheart podcast.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Guaranteed human.