7/3/25: Trump Says Don't Cut Medicaid, Scahill Reveals Hamas Strategy, Dems Turn On Israel

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar – Episode Summary (July 3, 2025)

Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts
Episode Title: Trump Says Don't Cut Medicaid, Scahill Reveals Hamas Strategy, Dems Turn On Israel

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1. Introduction

In this week’s episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti delve into several pressing political developments, including the passage of a significant legislative bill championed by former President Donald Trump, the evolving strategies of Hamas in response to ceasefire proposals, and a notable shift within the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel and Palestine. The discussion is enriched by expert guest appearances, providing in-depth analysis and diverse perspectives.

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2. The Big Beautiful Bill: Trump’s Immigration and Tax Policy

Passage Process and Political Maneuvering

The episode opens with the impending passage of a major legislative initiative often referred to as “Trump’s bill,” formally known within Congressional circles as the “big beautiful bill,” a nod to changes instated by Chuck Schumer. House Speaker Mike Johnson played a pivotal role in securing the necessary votes, employing relentless efforts, including late-night negotiations that stretched into the early morning hours. Notably, one pivotal vote by Scott Perry required him to travel back to Pennsylvania early in the morning to secure his support ([02:41] Sagar).

Jim Jordan’s Defense of the Bill ([07:47] – [08:46])

Jim Jordan of Ohio provided a staunch defense of the bill, highlighting its core Republican principles:

“...this bill actually empowers Americans. It empowers families. It cuts their taxes, it keeps their taxes low...” ([07:47] Jim Jordan).

Jordan emphasized the bill’s benefits, such as tax cuts for hardworking families, school choice provisions, and fortified border security, positioning it as a response to Democratic opposition.

Will Chamberlain’s Analysis ([10:13] – [24:24])

Guest analyst Will Chamberlain offered a comprehensive breakdown of the bill, categorizing it into two primary areas: immigration enforcement and tax policy.

• Immigration Enforcement:

  Chamberlain highlighted the bill’s unprecedented funding for immigration enforcement, including a “20 times increase in total funding” for ICE and allocating $45 billion each for border wall construction and detention facilities. He noted:

  “This is a good bill... because every single Democrat hates it.” ([10:47] Will Chamberlain).

• Tax Policy:

  The bill reiterates and extends the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, abolishing taxes on tips and overtime. Chamberlain praised these measures for incentivizing work among the American workforce.

However, Krystal expressed confusion over certain provisions, particularly the drastic increase in funds allocated towards immigration enforcement versus tax benefits for the working class. She questioned the rationale behind offsetting short-term tax cuts with long-term tax increases, such as the substantial reduction in the estate tax ([15:08] Crystal).

Chamberlain responded by attributing these policy compromises to the necessity of garnering sufficient legislative support within a narrowly divided Congress:

“If you don't think there's a problem with spending overall, that is or at least that it's not an... Giving a little, get a little.” ([15:45] Will Chamberlain).

Medicaid Cuts and Their Implications ([19:47] – [24:24])

A critical component of the bill involves significant changes to Medicaid:

• Work Requirements:

  The bill imposes a requirement for able-bodied adults aged 18-65 to work at least 20 hours per week to qualify for Medicaid, with certain exceptions ([19:47] Will Chamberlain).

• Funding Reductions:

  The legislation amends funding formulas, leading to decreased federal support for states, particularly affecting those that had previously expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act via state-level referendums. This reduction threatens the financial stability of rural hospitals, potentially leading to closures and leaving millions uninsured ([20:22] Crystal).

Chamberlain defended the policy by aligning it with Republican ideals of reducing dependency on government assistance and promoting self-sufficiency:

“...there is this deep anger from working-class Americans towards... people not working and collecting government benefits.” ([21:59] Will Chamberlain).

Krystal critiqued the messaging, pointing out the dissonance between the party’s rhetoric on protecting Medicaid and its actual legislative actions to cut funding.

Energy Policy Concerns ([16:13] – [19:05])

The bill also addresses energy production, reflecting Republican skepticism towards clean energy initiatives. Krystal questioned the inclusion of increased regulatory burdens and taxes on the clean energy sector, despite the undeniable growth in renewable energy sources over the past year. Chamberlain acknowledged limited expertise on the topic but suggested that the provisions aim to streamline subsidies for energy projects, albeit at the expense of certain clean energy goals.

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3. Republican Perspective on the Bill

Will Chamberlain elaborated on why the Republican base views the bill favorably despite its shortcomings:

“The core policy drive... is immigration and the working-class tax cuts.” ([10:47] Will Chamberlain).

He argued that the bill aligns with fundamental Republican values by enhancing border security and incentivizing work through tax cuts, which resonate strongly with the MAGA movement. Chamberlain also downplayed concerns about deficit increases, labeling them as less critical compared to the priorities of immigration and economic empowerment.

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4. Medicaid Cuts and Public Health Impact

The discussion emphasized the real-world implications of Medicaid cuts, particularly on rural healthcare infrastructure. Hospital administrators warned of impending bankruptcies in rural America due to reduced federal funding, which has sparked widespread concern about access to essential health services in underserved areas.

Krystal and Sagar debated the rationale behind cutting Medicaid, questioning the party’s commitment to protecting key social safety nets while promoting policies that may undermine them. Chamberlain maintained that the policies are a necessary step towards fiscal responsibility and reducing government overreach.

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5. Ceasefire Negotiations with Hamas

Jeremy Scahill’s Report ([37:14] – [50:18])

Journalist Jeremy Scahill provided an update on the latest ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by the Trump administration. Key points include:

• Trump’s Role:

  Scahill noted Trump’s ambition to portray his administration as a peacemaker in the Middle East, despite previous actions that escalated conflicts.

• Negotiation Terms:

  The proposed ceasefire lacks firm guarantees that Israel will not resume military operations post-truce. Key amendments include a commitment from Trump to uphold the ceasefire and a staggered release of Israeli captives ([37:57] Jeremy Scahill).

• Hamas’ Position:

  Despite knowing the precariousness of the agreement, Hamas is considering the ceasefire due to immense internal pressure and humanitarian crises within Gaza. Scahill highlighted the emotional and practical factors influencing Hamas’ decision-making process.

• Netanyahu’s Arrival:

  The anticipated visit of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to the White House suggests a potential for major announcements, although Scahill remains skeptical about Trump’s genuine commitment to lasting peace.

Public Desperation and Political Implications

Scahill and the hosts discussed the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, emphasizing the desperation among Palestinians for any respite from the ongoing conflict. The potential for the ceasefire to provide temporary relief, despite uncertainties about its durability, underscores the complexity of the negotiations.

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6. Democratic Party’s Shift on Israel-Palestine

Riley Herbst’s Poll Analysis ([53:02] – [57:49])

Riley Herbst presented startling polling data revealing a significant shift within the Democratic Party regarding support for Israel and Palestine:

• Overall Shift:

  In 2017, Democrats favored Israel by 13 points. By 2025, support for Palestinians surged by 43 points, marking a dramatic reversal ([53:02] Riley Herbst).

• Youth Demographics:

  Younger Democrats (ages 18-49) experienced an even more pronounced shift, with sympathy for Palestinians increasing by 57 points compared to earlier years ([53:42] Riley Herbst).

• Implications:

  This shift challenges long-standing alliances and influence from pro-Israel lobbying groups like AIPAC and its offshoot, DMFI. Herbst argued that despite substantial financial investments by these groups to maintain pro-Israel sentiments within the party, public opinion has overwhelmingly moved towards supporting Palestinians.

AIPAC and DMFI’s Political Failures ([56:17] – [59:19] Krystal and Sagar)

Krystal and Sagar examined the decline in influence of pro-Israel organizations. Historical attempts by AIPAC and DMFI to counteract progressive voices within the Democratic Party have largely backfired, leading to electoral defeats for candidates opposing pro-Palestinian perspectives. High-profile losses, such as Donna Edwards in 2022 and challenges against figures like Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush, illustrate the diminishing effectiveness of these lobbying efforts.

Sagar highlighted how these organizations’ aggressive campaigning against sympathetic Democrats did not sway public opinion, instead fortifying the pro-Palestinian stance among younger voters:

“... the public has not worked on the Democratic public. In fact, it seems like it's backfired.” ([59:19] Sagar).

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7. Public Impact and Rural Hospital Closures

The episode addressed the tangible consequences of Medicaid cuts, particularly the threat of rural hospital closures. Without adequate funding, these hospitals face financial insolvency, jeopardizing access to healthcare for millions in rural areas. Debate ensued over whether the GOP’s narrative on empowering work aligns with the detrimental effects of reducing essential health services.

8. Public Opinion and Democratic Leadership

Polls indicate a growing dissatisfaction within the Democratic base towards party leadership, especially concerning their handling of the Israel-Palestine issue. High approval ratings for replacing current leaders (62% in favor vs. 24% against) signal a potential realignment within the party’s hierarchy and policy priorities.

Riley Herbst emphasized that this internal strife is unprecedented, highlighting resignations and the silencing of vocal pro-Israel Democrats like Richard Torres as indicators of deeper systemic changes.

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9. Conclusion and Reflections on Political Polarization

Krystal and Saagar concluded by reflecting on the increasing polarization within American politics, exacerbated by legislative actions that divide public opinion and challenge party loyalties. The episode underscored the significance of independent media in shaping and reflecting these shifts, offering platforms for alternative narratives and urgent discussions on critical issues.

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Notable Quotes

• Jim Jordan on Empowering American Families:

  “...this bill actually empowers Americans. It empowers families...” ([07:47] Jim Jordan).

• Will Chamberlain on Immigration Enforcement:

  “...massive increase in total funding for immigration enforcement...” ([10:47] Will Chamberlain).

• Crystall’s Critique on Medicaid Cuts:

  “...you have to get your whole conference together...” ([06:58] Crystal).

• Will Chamberlain on Deficit Concerns:

  “The deficit is to Republicans as global warming is to Democrats...” ([22:46] Will Chamberlain).

• Riley Herbst on Democratic Shift:

  “...Palestinians sympathize more with the Palestinians by 57 points...” ([53:42] Riley Herbst).

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This episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar provides a comprehensive analysis of pivotal legislative changes, geopolitical strategies, and evolving political dynamics within the major American political parties. Through expert insights and robust discussions, Krystal and Saagar elucidate the complexities shaping contemporary American politics.

Transcript

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[Riley Herbst]

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[Crystal]

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[Sagar]

Conditions hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you.

[Crystal]

Can find honest perspectives from the left.

[Sagar]

And the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important.

[Emily]

To you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become.

[Sagar]

A member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see [e-mail].

[Crystal]

All right. Good morning. Happy Thursday. Welcome to Breaking Points. How are you doing, Emily?

[Sagar]

Doing well. We're on the cusp of the fourth of July, so that's great news.

[Will Chamberlain]

We are.

[Crystal]

All right, so today's program, we're going to start the big beautiful bill, which I guess Chuck Schumer changed the name but we're still going to call it that anyway, because we don't have any other name for it. Trump's bill. Yeah, just go with that, I guess. Trump's bill is, as we speak, cruising towards passage. There's Hakeem Jeffries is speaking and there's all kinds of kind of parliamentary stuff that they're tying up. But it's gonna pass, so that's gonna happen.

[Sagar]

Yeah. Mike Johnson secured the votes. He did some arm twisting into the wee hours of the morning. 4:00am Scott Perry had to drive back to Pennsylvania to get new clothes after vacation. Any.

[Crystal]

Yeah, but he's like, York. So that's like people commute from York, practically. So we'll be joined by Wilt Chamberlain, kind of a MAGA man about town, right?

[Sagar]

Sure.

[Crystal]

One of the leading MAGA kind of figures in Washington, I would say, who's gonna kind of tell us why this is actually a good thing, that this is happening.

[Sagar]

Yeah, we're absolutely going to hear from Will about why the right is absolutely happy about what's happening right now, which.

[Crystal]

I'm glad, because it's one of those moments where I just genuinely don't understand it. I usually, like, disagree, but understand now I have no idea why they like this thing. So I'm looking forward to hearing from Will on that. Then we're going to be joined by Jeremy Scahl, who's been talking to sources within Hamas and other resistance organizations about their response to Donald Trump's new ceasefire proposal. We'll get details from him on that. After that, we're going to bring in Mehdi Hasan.

[Sagar]

We've got three guests today.

[Crystal]

He's going to be in the studio. There's been this bubbling scandal for a very long time where the BBC commissioned an extraordinary documentary on Israeli attacks on the medics and doctors, the medical community in Gaza, and has been refusing to air it. It finally aired on Channel 4 after they just said, fine. We are not fine. Fine. You can take this somewhere else. We are not running it. Mehdi Hasan bought the global rights for it for Zatteo. And so we're going to play a little trailer from that. Talk about the scandal, talk about how that whole thing came about. We've got an update on Alegator Alcatraz.

[Sagar]

That's right.

[Crystal]

And Kilmar Abrego Garcia as well. His case. There's news out of. Out of that one. Plus we're going to talk about Zoran Mamdani's response to Donald Trump saying he's going to arrest him and deport him and how it kind of points a way for Democrats to be a less awful party.

[Sagar]

Yeah.

[Crystal]

At a party that you could actually imagine being excited about.

[Sagar]

It's just a really interesting topic to be able to talk to you about after you've written books like on this exact topic.

[Crystal]

Yeah. It's nice to see it flourishing a little bit.

[Sagar]

Yeah. So we'll get into that and then we will cover what happened in the Diddy trial yesterday where he was acquitted on three counts and found guilty on two of the less serious counts. So a lot to talk about today. Let's go ahead and start with the one big beautiful bill which as we are sitting here right now is really on the cusp of passage because House Speaker Mike Johnson wrangled his conference. A lot of the Freedom Caucus fiscal hawks did not want to vote on the bill. They didn't want to vote on the rule, they didn't want to vote on the to open debate on the bill, which is a parliamentary procedure you have to do to ultimately vote on the bill. And they are not happy that they're being forced to come to the table on this. So Mike Johnson and his conference have been doing intense math, trying to make sure like they literally had to wait for one member, Scott Perry, to drive back and forth from the York area. As Ryan points out yesterday for his vote, he thought he had more time to go get a change of clothes cuz he came in after vacation and this is happening at like 2, between 2 and 4 in the morning. So Poor went out for the Capitol Hill press corps.

[Crystal]

There was a Nordstrom rack here in D.C. he could have gone to.

[Sagar]

Yeah, I was sort of confused about that. Mike Johnson also said that he would have loaned him clothes. So all kinds of wild stuff going on.

[Crystal]

That was a story. He had to go home for some other reason.

[Sagar]

It looked like the bill was actually on track to fail. For a brief moment late last night around like 10:30pm it looked like Johnson had lost the votes. But after Trump and Johnson were twisting arms all night, they now have the votes.

[Crystal]

So now Hakeem Jeffries gets what's called a golden hour where he can talk endlessly.

[Sagar]

Yeah.

[Crystal]

And so I think he's an hour three. It's a real treat for his of his speech now. But when he runs out of steam then. And maybe he'll just speak for 40 years, but at some point he will run out of steam and then they will put this on the floor and they have the votes.

[Sagar]

He ran out of scene like two.

[Crystal]

Years ago to pass It. So should we roll some clips first?

[Sagar]

Yeah.

[Crystal]

And then bring in Will?

[Sagar]

Yeah, let's get Will to react to. We'll start with this clip of Jim Jordan. So a bunch of members were brought to the White House yesterday where Donald Trump was working to convince them to vote for the bill. They had a lot of reservations on it just 24 hours ago. So here is Jim Jordan of Ohio on how they got to passage. I do want to ask you in that context, it is Freedom Caucus members who are very concerned about this bill. I'm old enough to remember when if there was a bill on the floor that added this much to our debt and deficit, I cannot imagine you would have been happy about it in those years. And yet you have been approaching this a little bit differently. What is your message to your colleagues in that group right now?

[Jim Jordan]

Look, we all wish it'd save more money, but you know, this is a good bill. And I tell people all the time, you know, it's a good piece of legislation because every single Democrat hates it. And the reason they hate it, because this bill actually empowers Americans. It empowers families. It cuts their taxes, it keeps their taxes low. It says to the hardworking people who are working and getting tips, we're not going to tax those tips. It says to parents, we're going to give you school choice in our tax code. It says the border that's now secure under President Trump, we're going to allocate resources to keep it secure. And maybe most importantly or as importantly is it says to hard working American families who are paying for all this government, for people who are getting a benefit in the welfare system, if they're able bodied, adult, guess what? Now from now on they're going to have to work. So I think it's good for all those common sense, fundamental Republican principles. That's why the Democrats don't like it. While it doesn't cut enough spending, I get it. But we got small majorities and this is probably as good as it's going to get. So I am certainly for this piece of legislation.

[Sagar]

Okay. So Speaker Mike Johnson also addressed the, let's say, imperfections from a conservative perspective in this bill. We can go ahead and roll a two here.

[Crystal]

We can't make everyone 100% happy. It's impossible. This is a deliberative body. It's a legislative process. Biden definition. All of us have to give up.

[Jeremy Scahill]

On our personal preferences.

[Crystal]

I never ask anybody to compromise core principles. But preferences must be yielded for the greater good. And that's What I think people are.

[Riley Herbst]

Recognizing and come to grips with now.

[Sagar]

Not all Republicans had to have their arms twisted to vote for this bill. Nancy Mace documented her journey. We can go ahead and roll this footage that she posted from South Carolina up to D.C. she got caught up in the same travel stuff that Ryan and I got caught up in, but she rented a luxury sprinter van and went to Waffle House and Wawa and wore pajamas everywhere and posted this wonderful video of her pumping gas and buying Red Bulls so that she could get up in time to vote for the bill. And I think Ryan, on that note, this is a good time as any to bring in Will Chamberlain of the Article 3 project who is going to talk to us a bit about how the right is seeing passage of this bill, interpreting passage of this bill. Why so many people, Nancy Mace included, are actually very happy about the bill. Unl the sort of reluctant folks like a Chip Roy. So Will, first of all, thank you so much for joining us.

[Will Chamberlain]

Always great to be with you.

[Sagar]

Now anytime you have like a reconciliation bill. Mike Johnson is absolutely right. Not everybody is going to be happy with every part of the bill. You have to get your whole conference together. That's everyone from Susan Collins to Chip Roy and that's no easy feat. Obviously they ended up losing Susan Collins, but Kat Murkowski needed to keep Murkowski. J.D. vance cast the tie breaking vote. So tell us basically give us your sort of big take on why passage of this bill that will now be on Donald Trump's desk by that fourth of July deadline. Why you see that as a big win.

[Will Chamberlain]

I guess you can fit it into two big buckets, both of which are core parts of Trump's agenda, immigration and tax policy. So on the immigration side, I mean this is a 20 times increase in total funding for immigration enforcement, 10 to 20 times. Massively increasing the budget of ICE, massively increasing spending $45 billion to build the wall, spending another $45 billion on detention space. I mean I remember having knocked down drag out fights over getting $4 billion to build a wall via national emergency funding in the first term. Congress wouldn't even breathe on it. And now we're going to get 10 times that to solve what has been a major priority of the MAGA movement since its inception, massive increased dissension. All this money is necessary because it's very hard to engage in mass deportation. It turns out that once people are in the country, that's a logistically challenging thing. It requires a lot of personnel. So you need the money for it. To say you're for mass deportation and not for the money necessary to do it is ridiculous. To change the law logistically requires 60 votes in the Senate, but to fund enforcement of existing law requires 50. So it's a huge win on the immigration front, which we see as the most central issue in, in our politics. And I think the second big bucket would be tax policy. No tax on tips and no tax on overtime is a real thing. And this reinstates, reaffirms the 2017 tax cuts and Jobs Act. In the absence of this, you'd have a massive tax hike for everybody. Instead you're having massive tax cuts or keeping the massive tax cuts from 2017 and then additionally adding some very pro working class, pro working class tax reform in terms of no tax and tips and no tax on overtime. And to the extent there are decreases in benefits related to work eligibility, well, it seems kind of obvious that if you're also massively incentivizing work by making sure that people get more take home pay from their work, you're sort of creating the incentive structure that I think kind of pro working class Republicans want, which is we want people who are going out there and working to get rewarded. We just don't want. It's like JD Vance talked a lot about this in his book. He thought you need to reward the working class for going to work, but not reward staying at home doing nothing.

[Crystal]

And so that part I understand. And so help me out for the parts that I don't understand because it makes sense to me that you guys would do like throw billions. And I think the amount of money, I don't even know how you're going to be able to spend it, but good Lord, it's like somebody said it's more than the Marines. It's like, it's like the amount of money going towards mass deportation is absolutely stunning. But it goes into the category of something that I disagree with, but I understand that this is a thing that you guys have wanted like that. So I get that on the bargain. Encouraging, you know, making, making work pay more, encouraging people to work. That makes sense. What I don't. The parts that I don't understand. And extending the Trump tax cuts. He did the tax cuts, obviously he's going to extend them. Like that makes sense. Part I don't understand. So let's take the, like the explosion of the estate tax. Like basically you're spending something like 500 billion to a trillion dollars in this bill to make it so the threshold for people who pay the estate tax is going from almost nobody, but still raising a significant amount of money, half a billion, 500 billion to a trillion dollars. A lot of money that wealthy people were paying in the estate tax. It's now going to go away, like so. And that money is coming out of, say, extending the tax, no tax on tips and no tax on overtime, because those things expire pretty quickly. You could tighten the estate tax and say, you know what, the threshold for how much wealth you can pass down without paying tax is going to go down a little bit. We're going to say the first $2 million that you want to give to your children is tax free. That's a huge amount of money. That's an enormous windfall for somebody to get. And then we're going to take the tax revenue from that and we're going to permanently extend all these tax, these tax breaks for the working class. No tax on tips, overtime, et cetera. Instead, they blow out the estate tax, tons of money for Bill Gates kids. But they make the working class part tight. Like what? Like what? Why do that?

[Will Chamberlain]

Well, I mean, from a political perspective, I assume that was necessary to get some votes in the Senate. Right. That's my default assumption because that's not the core, the core policy drive for Trump and the Trump movement is the immigration and the working class tax cuts. And so. But that the MAGA movement is not completely reflected in the Senate as we've seen for the last decade. So I think if you're asking from the political perspective, why are these things that seem in tension with the core Trump policy priorities in the bill, it's like, well, we have a three seat majority in the Senate and effectively a two or three seat majority in the House. So, you know, we, we have to give a little, get a little.

[Crystal]

Got it. What about the, what about the energy part? Like, I understand that Republicans in general kind of just think clean energy is icky like that. There's, it's, it's a problematic for reasons, but over the last year, like two thirds of new energy production was clean. Energy was batteries, wind, solar. And we need as a country to continue the expansion of the supply of energy if we're going to compete against China.

[Sagar]

Whether this argument.

[Crystal]

Yeah. Whether it's Elon Musk's argument and also common sense, like you need energy to power your growing economy, whether it's clean or dirty. Why go after the energy industry this way? Because it goes beyond taking subsidies away. It adds taxes, it adds regulatory burdens, it adds all of these obstacles that make it so that Clean energy manufacturing. And energy manufacturing is made more difficult by this bill. That's one of the parts where I'm like, who's for this? Because big tech needs energy, consumers need energy, they don't want to pay more. Who's the constituency and what are the politics that drove that? And then we can medicate because I know you got to go pretty soon.

[Will Chamberlain]

So I'm not a huge expert on energy policy, I'll be frank. But there's a guy, Alex Epstein, who had some good posts on this yesterday. My understanding is that it's a kind of technocratic argument about what you have to do in order to ensure that your project gets subsidized and stays subsidized, like how quickly it gets on the grid. And if I recall his post correctly, like, don't, don't hold me to this. Somebody will have to go, you know, but his, his basic argument was that it's, you know, the subs, the question is like, how quickly does your solar thing have to be operational in order for you to get the subsidy? And they were trying to reduce that time to ensure that these projects actually were getting done and adding to the grid. And the problem was if you don't have that limit, you get kind of what he described as spamming of the grid, where people are just building a lot of random energy plants to get the subsidy without any real assessment of the fact that they'll actually be online in a reasonable period of time. So that was one thing, I think. So, that's one point. But I think in general, there's a lot of long term standing objections to solar and wind. They're not a good reliable basis on which to build your grid. And I mean, Spain had massive outages as a result. Wind, wind has all sorts of problems. These are not like the grid, especially in a lot of places, is ultimately sustained by fossil fuels. And that's not a bad thing. We're going to, I mean, we're going to have more technology tuned at more fossil fuels. I think that. And we have tons of them sitting underneath Colorado. So I think the, you know, I don't think this is, but I guess the meta point would be this isn't a core area of concern for the Trump base either way. And so whether or not, again, one of these questions about, you know, people looking for places to cut spending, I think that. And, you know, green energy subsidies would be one of them.

[Crystal]

And the irony is that Democrats, and we're critical of this at the time, put most of the subsidies into red States thinking, yeah, yeah, you know, because, and you know, North Carolina and Texas in particular, also Kansas and Iowa and Maine have built up, you know, major kind of clean energy industries that are going to get hit.

[Sagar]

That's why Lisa Murkowski was fighting hard.

[Crystal]

And so then Medicaid yesterday, Trump has a bunch of Republicans over at the White House and he's waxing to them about how you keep your seats. And he says the way not to lose elections is he repeats his mantra that he said so often over the last eight years. Don't mess with, don't touch Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security. And one of the members in the room is like, bro, we're touching Medicaid in this bill. Not just touching it, torching it. Like massive, massive cuts, I guess. So why, like, why do that?

[Will Chamberlain]

Well, I mean, this is my understanding of the Medicaid changes are that it's, it's a work requirement. If you're able bodied between the ages of 18 and 65, you need to be working 20 hours a week to get Medicaid, which is, I think, and there are exceptions obviously, if you, if you're like caring for minor children or something like that, or you're disabled, obviously. But I think as a default policy idea, that sounds right to me. I don't think that, you know, able bodied, yeah, you know, able bodied people should be getting free health insurance from the state. That's, that seems wrong to me. If they're not, you know, that's, that's not what we don't have socialized medicine.

[Crystal]

Right. That's easy to sell, but it goes so much further beyond that. Basically what it does is it readjusts the various formulas so that it's going to massively reduce the amount of funding that is going to go to states and also to food stamps to snap and it's going to increase the amount that states have to put in. And interestingly, because Republicans resisted the Medicaid expansion in Obamacare, which John Roberts and the Supreme Court allowed them to do. As you, I'm sure you remember, there were so many movements in red states to push for the Medicaid expansion that a bunch of those states had to do it through constitutional amendments done by referendum. So a lot of these red states are now constitutionally obligated to put a particular amount of their budget into Medicaid. And now they're going to get a lot less from the federal government and it's, and hospitals are warning that they're going to go bankrupt in rural America. Why? And Holly talked a lot about this. This is not just, you know, some Marxist on this program talking about it. Why wasn't that a bigger concern? Like the closure of rural hospitals and the throwing off of 17 million people of Medicaid, many of them in rural America. That feels like a MAGA issue. And this is one of the places where I'm back in the place of just not understanding. And does it go back to. This is a coalition of the old Republican Party that I very much do understand that wanted to cut Medicaid for decades and they just won.

[Will Chamberlain]

I mean, I think again the throwing off of people in Medicaid, it's, I mean it's not just randomly throwing people off. It's literally, it's imposing a work requirement. And I think even the MAGA base is pro work requirements. I think people really should go back and read J.D. vance's book on hillbilly elegy. Right. It's actually laid out there. There's just this really clear difference. You know, on the one hand we want, we don't want to get rid of Social Security, Medicare, but on the other hand there is this deep anger from working class Americans towards, towards idlers, towards people in their similar class not working, not having a job and collecting government benefits. So I think it just basically the policy fits that.

[Crystal]

I think the messaging fits that. Yeah, I think it's kind of a myth that there's like, well then the.

[Will Chamberlain]

Knock on effects of the policy on rural hospital. I mean people are, these are projections. I'm sure in a world where rural hospitals are actually in real trouble and there's like real talk of closures, then the policy will change. Right. There's certain, you know, this is a general theme. You'd actually use this as call this plan trusting. Right. There's a general theme to how things work. This was happened in tariffs too. Like, you name it. People are like, well these catastrophic impacts will result. I'm like, well no, there are competent people running our government. They're competent people running state governments. Before the catastrophe hits, things will, things will change. If you are right that the catastrophe is going to hurt. So I don't, I start, I don't know that you know, these hospitals will close. I know people are arguing that they might. If there really is a serious problem there, I assume it will get fixed when that happens.

[Crystal]

So it's like, so that I understand, it's like basically we trust Trump that he's gonna do good by us. I guess last point on the deficit, like, you know, I spent My whole life being told that it's the thing that's gonna like ruin America. And it's like, oh, how about we add a couple more trillion to it? And one minute on that one because I know you gotta run.

[Will Chamberlain]

The deficit is to Republicans as global warming is to Democrats. The impending crisis that, you know, always, always will happen in the next year or two and then never does. I mean, I think that I've come to the conclusion that, I mean, the debt as a problem is, is not a problem in the way that, you know, the sort of Freedom Caucus people catastrophize it. It's just a, it's just a long term net inflation problem is the way I think about it.

[Crystal]

That's basically how some on the left think about it too now.

[Will Chamberlain]

Yeah. And you know, ultimately, was Trump getting people to chant, you know, reduce the deficit? No. I mean, there's one of the things that the Freedom Caucus loves to do is, is they, and this is not limited to them, is pretending that their policy is the ultimate Trump agenda. And it's like, no, actually that's not what the Trump vote base wanted. That's, you know, the deficit is like 10th on the list or 15th on the list of concerns. And the ones that are addressed in this bill are number one and two.

[Sagar]

That's a good point.

[Crystal]

All right, well, we're going to let you go and then Emily and I have a couple more things to go through.

[Sagar]

So helpful. Will, thanks.

[Crystal]

Thanks a lot.

[Will Chamberlain]

All right. Absolutely.

[Sagar]

Thank you.

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[Ray Ban]

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[Crystal]

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[Ray Ban]

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[Crystal]

Hey Meta.

[Ray Ban]

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[Crystal]

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[Crystal]

Okay, so that was Wilt Chamberlain. I guess I sort of see it from their perspective a little bit more. They just really trust Trump. I'm not saying that's rational, but okay, you trust Trump. Like the idea that you've got a bunch of people that are saying like, hey, and there have been a ton of rural hospital closures already and you've got people saying if you do this Medicaid provider tax, you kick these other people off Medicaid, these hospitals are going to close. And the counter is I trust Trump.

[Sagar]

Well, but this is also an interesting point that based on what Will just said, if you don't think there's a problem with spending overall, that this is, or at least that it's not an.

[Crystal]

Urgent pressing problem, why cut Medicaid?

[Sagar]

Well, that's what I was just going to say. Yeah. Then why make these sort of just tweaks to a program that maga, as Steve Bannon has said MAGA loves Medicaid. MAGA is on Medicaid. Why do that? To sell tax cuts that will benefit everyone across the entire. I mean, these tax cuts will benefit everyone across the entire entire spectrum in the short term, disproportionately will benefit wealthy people. You could have, as people like Bach, Younger, Sargon have said, just not have reauthorize the top rate cuts. You could have just let those expire. But if you don't think that there's a urgent debt deficit problem, why are you worrying about paying for. Why are you worrying about offsetting the tax cuts at all? You don't have to.

[Crystal]

Yeah, I guess it goes back to the Republican Party still being somewhat controlled by, or at least having to deal with. It's, it's like 1% wing.

[Sagar]

I'm all for smart work requirements. The politics of this make like just the politics of this make absolutely no sense of packaging them together with a tax cut for the rich.

[Crystal]

Yeah. And I think there's an interesting element. So we'll get to Tim Burchett here in the we trust Trump and also in the we do not trust Democrats and the media. That, that kind of polarized people into just supporting the thing. And I think we watched it happen in real time on CNN with Burchett on the air. Well, you had Jim Jordan, who we played previously in this block, saying this bill is great because all the Democrats hate it. Like, so. That's right there. That's just explicitly polarization. Like Democrats don't like it, therefore it must be good. Burchett went on Brianna Keilar's program on CNN and was an undecided vote. And Trump had brought him and some other undecideds into the White House trying to push them into supporting the bill. And he gets, then he gets into a fight with Brianna Keilar over whether or not the CBO should be trusted. And she's doing a kind of ha, ha, gotcha. You pushed forward a resolution that said all CBO estimates should be read on the House floor. And now you're saying that CBO estimates can't be trusted on this. And his argument is, yeah, CBO is the only game in town. And also that resolution didn't pass. But I think the CBO is wrong on this.

[Sagar]

Right.

[Crystal]

And then they go back and forth for a while on whether or not he's a hypocrite. And by the end of the interview, he's hardcore defending the bill. Yeah. But he went from on the fence. Do you know what? This bill's gonna save The American Republic.

[Sagar]

And this echoes the Jim Jordan point also that he made in the clip we rolled earlier and Trump was pitching it this way. The left hates this.

[Crystal]

Left hates his bill.

[Sagar]

That's why it's good.

[Crystal]

And so we're going to vote yes on this thing that's actually, I think, genuinely self destructive.

[Sagar]

The left loves this bill, by the way. They're salivating over this bill because they're able to talk about entirely.

[Crystal]

Yeah, Democrats are so like, they're salivating like drying shots. He's like, I really hope the bill doesn't pass, but if it does, we are going to win the Senate. Let's hope it doesn't. So anyway, yeah, let's roll.

[Sagar]

Burch in, what did the president say to you that made you feel maybe closer to voting yes?

[J]

He talked about the economic output that we would have that was not in the CBO scores. And along those lines, he talked about other things that I'm not going to share, but because it was in privacy. But I think there's a lot of things that probably be revealed when this is passed and I think America will embrace it further. I think again, once you, you, you do some things like straighten up Medicaid and Medicare and you dispute a lot of the lies that are in the media about people be getting kicked off. I think America understands what we're up against in this.

[Sagar]

Well, the cbo, which you put so much trust in for years and years that you passed a resolution wanting estimates read before bills, is very clear about how many people are going to be kicked off of health care until you were against this.

[J]

No, ma'.

[Sagar]

Am.

[J]

No, ma'.

[Crystal]

Am.

[J]

No, ma'. Am. You're. Listen, listen. If you want to, if you want to do that editorial, just go ahead. You don't need me on here. But the cbo, I would like to see what the economic, in economic output of every bill. You as a taxpayer should want that, too. And the CBO is the only organization we have. If I could allow a private accounting firm to do it, I would much rather that happen. But the reality is it would have to be the cbo. And what do you have against knowing how much each bill is spent? Why does the media opposing that? Why do you own the left always fight every chance in America knowing what's going on? The problem you all have with this bill, man, is that it gets government out of our way and lets Americans make some decisions. And maybe hardworking Americans would have a better choice and a better shot at life in this country without you all just telling us how bad things are going and trying to construct and as you're doing with me, trying to, trying to dictate what I've said.

[Crystal]

Yeah. And he goes on from there. Just the rest of the interview just sings the praises of the bill and now he's for it. That clip to me is like in the broader interview is like the story of our politics. It's like the issue itself gets lost in the fact that we hate each other. And so then Burgess, like, you know what, she sucks. I'm voting for this.

[Sagar]

I'm getting yelled at by cnn.

[Crystal]

I'm voting for this. It's like, don't follow that train.

[Sagar]

But I would also, I would also notice that just note that Will started with immigration enforcement and that's how Stephen Miller's been selling this bill as the most important bill for like the future of Western civilization is that they believe if you don't do their definition of mass deportation, which is different than I think the public's definition of mass deportation, but literally like deporting almost everybody, not just the worst of the worst, but almost everybody for assimilation and labor force reasons, then you don't have a country anymore. So from that perspective, they would probably swallow a lot of bad policy to pass a reconciliation bill with massive immigration enforcement increase.

[Crystal]

Just do your crackdown then. I don't see why they had to lump it all in, but whatever, I didn't win. Up next, Jeremy Scahill going to update us on his reporting on the latest in the ceasefire negotiations.

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[Emily]

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[Ray Ban]

Who needs headphones when you have glasses? Ray Ban Meta Glasses where style meets cutting edge tech. With discreet open air speakers and built in microphones, you can play your favorite tunes. Hey Meta Play hip hop music and tune into the world around you. But listening is just the beginning because you can stay in the moment while your phone stays in your pocket as Meta AI provides answers to questions on the fly.

[Crystal]

Hey Meta, what's the weather tonight? Tonight will be clear with temperatures ranging.

[Ray Ban]

From capture and share moments.

[Crystal]

Hey Meta.

[Ray Ban]

Post this video on Instagram. You can even get Meta AI to make recommendations based on what you're looking at. Hey Meta, what can I make for dinner with what's in the fridge?

[Crystal]

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[Ray Ban]

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[Crystal]

Ceasefire negotiations are at an advanced stage. Jeremy Scahill, my colleague at Dropsite News, joins us now to talk about his reporting on what we know about where we stand. Jeremy, thanks so much for being here today.

[Jeremy Scahill]

Good to be with you guys.

[Crystal]

So walk us through where we are now. Donald Trump several days ago announced that he had gotten Israeli agreement on some version of a ceasefire. There was conspicuous silence for a while from the Israelis, but then a media campaign started rolling out about what was in this agreement. And my understanding though is that only recently did Hamas even receive a proposal. So what is the current situation?

[Jeremy Scahill]

I mean, Trump is riding really high on what he perceives to be an ultra successful military campaign against Iran. And you know, he's had his own, you know, series of kerfuffles in Washington over how much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program. But clearly he feels empowered now to try to keep the ball rolling with his own agenda in the Middle East. And what we've seen happen throughout the Trump administration is on the one hand, Trump messages that he wants all these wars to be brought to an end. On the other hand, he's really fully empowered Netanyahu to continue and intensify the war and actually to expand it, not just in Lebanon with repeated violations of the ceasefire, but also these 12 days of intense Israeli bombing of Iran that then at the end became a joint U. S. Israeli bombing operation. But, you know, setting aside any analysis we could do about what really was at play there, Trump really, I think, sees that he has momentum. And so what happened is that earlier this week, Ron Dermer, who is Netanyahu's point person and really kind of like his Roger Stone of sorts, you know, his political hitman, he arrives in Washington D.C. for talks with a series of Trump administration officials. And what I'm told by sources is basically they concocted what they felt would be kind of the final ultimatum that would be delivered to Hamas by regional mediators from Egypt and Qatar saying this is your last chance to make a ceasefire deal. You saw the kind of power that we unleashed in Iran. Now is your time to do it. There's been a lot of reporting over the past couple of days in the Hebrew language press, the Arabic language press, as well as in the American press about what the terms of this proposal being put in front of Hamas are. I'm told, though, by sources on the negotiating team that despite this flurry of media reports about what the terms are, Hamas was not actually given any document until late last night. In fact, they haven't really been able to do full consultations within Hamas or the other resistance factions. I've spoken this morning to a source who's close to the negotiators that actually has that document in hand. And in general, what I would say is this. It is almost identical in most ways to the previous ultimatum that Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, delivered back in May. It does not contain any clear guarantees that Israel will not resume the military assault on Gaza after an initial 60 day period. It has very vague language about how humanitarian aid is going to come into Gaza. It doesn't say anything about the fate of the Gaza Humanitarian foundation, this aid scam where Palestinians are being gunned down every day. It does mention that the United nations and the Red Crescent are again going to be involved with the distribution of aid, but there aren't any clear definitions. Perhaps the two most significant changes or amendments, I guess that you could say in some Ways inch the position more toward what Hamas wanted is that they've sharpened some of the language about President Donald Trump. There's 13 points in this agreement. In point one and point 13, Trump is mentioned by name. And what they're saying is that Trump is committed to an actual end to the war and as long as negotiations are conducted in good faith, that he wants to see this two month window of a temporary truce continue on toward a resolution of the war. Hamas, though, had wanted much clearer language and they wanted Trump to guarantee that he would prevent Israel from resuming its military assault on Gaza as long as the negotiations were continuing. That language is not in this document. On a technical level, the most significant change is that the Israelis back in May wanted to have 10 living captives, Israelis held in Gaza, released within the first week of any ceasefire deal, 60 day deal. Hamas looked at that and said then it's just going to be a one week deal because after the Israelis are freed, Netanyahu is just going to resume the genocide. So it's not a huge change. But what we're looking at now is a formula that says eight Israelis would be released within that first week. I believe it's on day five. And then the other two living Israelis would be released on day 50. You would also have the bodies of 18 Israelis who are deceased but still in captivity in Gaza staggered out over the course of those two months. What is not mentioned in the document is how many of the more than 10,000 Palestinians held in detention camps and prisons in Israel are going to be released. That's unusual. In other agreements, there has been some formula cited for how many Palestinian captives are gonna be released. The language on this is very vague, while there is not. Again, Ryan, you and I have talked about this on this show before. Hamas has offered to relinquish governing authority of Gaza. They put it in writing, it was in their draft that we talked about on this show a couple of months ago. It is not in the actual text of this agreement. And you know, Israel and the United States, for whatever reasons, have taken that term out every time Hamas has, has put it forward. But I was told last night by a senior Hamas official that the mediators have made clear to Hamas that that is a condition that Israel and the United States are going to insist on. And what is unclear is who takes power if Hamas does relinquish its authority. It's not just a resistance movement, it's a government. So. So a lot of questions up in the air. And the final thing I'll say on this is that while Hamas. I think Hamas is very seriously considering taking this deal, even though they don't think it's a good deal. They're under a lot of pressure. These guys, the negotiators all have family members that have been killed. People are suffering immensely in Gaza and there is unprecedented pressure against Hamas right now. Not in a hostile way, but in a desperate way. Please make a deal. So I'm told that they're giving very serious consideration to it. The question is if they're going to be able to get some amendments to this language. Last time this happened, Hamas came through and put a whole new proposal on the table. I'm told that they're looking now at a more surgical approach where they're going to zero in on what they've defined as their red lines. They really don't want Israel to be able to resume the genocide and they want a full Israeli withdrawal. What is not in this document is anything about the Philadelphi Corridor, which is the very crucial part of Gaza, because it represents in the south of Gaza. It represents the only gateway to a world beyond Israeli control is on the Egyptian border. It's on the Egyptian border. We reported some days ago, Ryan, that mediators last week told Hamas that they may have to be willing to concede the timeline for an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphia corridor. So I think what we're seeing here, just to sum it up, is it's basically the same ultimatum that was put on the table with a few amendments that seem aimed at trying to give Hamas something. Hamas is very clear eyed about it. A senior official told me last night that Trump is a crucial part of what he called Israel's deception operation. Even though they say that this is a deception, they're wide eyed about it. They understand what the stakes are. And so I think we're going to see some really intense attempts at negotiation. I get the sense that Hamas very much wants to make a deal.

[Sagar]

And it was announced just a couple of days ago that Netanyahu will be at the White House on Monday. Jeremy, which seems to signal confidence from the Trump administration that something's coming. What does the timeline look like and what did you make of that announcement?

[Jeremy Scahill]

Yeah, I mean, you know, as often happens with Netanyahu, he sort of projects one message in English and another message in Hebrew. Netanyahu has been totally unhinged, belligerent in his Hebrew language remarks over the past 24 to 48 hours where he's saying we're not going to stop the war until Hamas is totally Eradicated. We're gonna kill everyone with a gun. We're not gonna have Hamasistan anymore. On the other hand, what we're hearing is that Trump really wants to kind of put on a show with this. I think he wants to make a big announcement when Netanyahu is in town. Also, we can report, based on Israeli media accounts from well connected journalists, that there is talk again of another side letter, a secret side letter that Trump apparently has told the Israelis he will give them, saying that they can resume the war in Gaza if Hamas does not leave power and disarm. So, you know, it's sort of Groundhog Day again. I think that, you know, with Netanyahu coming to Washington, Trump wants to put on a big show. He wants to make a big announcement. He wants to sort of portray himself, you know, in a way that's gonna go down in archival reels that are gonna be shown for decades to come. He may get that moment. The real question is, is Trump serious about ending this war? Because if he is, he can put Netanyahu in a corner. The Israelis don't seem to think Trump is going to do that. I think Netanyahu feels like this is sort of his own victory tour of sorts. So we'll see what happens.

[Crystal]

So, to your point about Hamas being under significant pressure, our colleague Abu Bakr Abed had posted yesterday, we can put this up. Maybe in post, he said, growing and pressuring calls among Gazans to accept the Qatari proposal for a ceasefire. The people are desperate beyond words for arrest. 60 days can offer a huge source of relief and respite from the ongoing holocaust. It's better than nothing. I hope it. I hope it will happen. I think it's a good representation of the desperation at play here, despite the fact that Abu Bakr and everybody else understands that it could be just 50 or 60 days and then he resumes it again. Like how confident? Like how. Like what's the confidence level among people that actually. Yeah, that. Okay, we'll take it because it's 50 days of peace, or even, let's say 60 days of peace. But, like, how certain are people that Netanyahu will actually just use that side letter and go right back into war, yet are considering it anyway?

[Jeremy Scahill]

I mean, I think a lot of this also boils down to Donald Trump's relationships with leaders in the Arab world. Clearly, Qatar, Egypt, others want this to be brought to an end. They haven't ever raised the prospect of using military force to end it. But it's quite clear that Trump has deepening relationships with Saudi Arabia. He wants to push forward with his so called Abraham Accords and get potentially Syria or Lebanon to join on. Saudi Arabia would be the big prize. So, you know, there is some motivation for Trump to try to make this thing stick. But at the end of the day, you know, I spoke to a source close to the negotiations right before I spoke to you guys, and what he's saying is, look, they realize that after 30 days or 60 days, the Israelis could resume this genocide. But from their perspective, they still would have cards. They would have 10 living Israeli captives. They would have about a dozen or so bodies of deceased Israelis. They don't feel like they would have depleted everything they have, but they will be giving up half of what they view as the only negotiating assets that they have. I really get the sense that they feel like they need to make a deal right now. So I think we're gonna see a last minute flurry of activity where they try to get some concessions or even get a side letter of their own from the White House, which I've been told by sources is a possibility, saying like, look, we can't put this in the real deal, but as long as Qassam Brigades and Sariah Al Quds are not firing on the Israelis, meaning that they're not the ones breaking the ceasefire, and as long as you are negotiating in good faith, Trump is committed to making sure aid flow continues beyond 60 days and that the Israelis are not going to resume a full scorched earth bombing campaign. I think Palestinians are in an unspeakable situation right now. The level of desperation is off the charts. The entire society is being slowly strangled to death. And these guys negotiating this deal, as cartoonishly as they're portrayed, they're not immune to it. Some of them, their mothers have been killed, their brothers have been killed, their children have been killed. We think of them as in a cartoonish way, but actually as Adam Bowler after he met with Hamas said, they're human beings too. So I think what they're trying to do is get the best deal they can get that doesn't surrender the cause of Palestinian liberation. And that's why they fought so hard to get that withdrawal and a commitment that the genocide won't be resumed.

[Crystal]

Well, Jeremy, thank you for your reporting on this and thanks for joining us. We'll certainly continue to follow it.

[Jeremy Scahill]

Thank you, guys.

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[Emily]

4Th celebrate freedom from spills, stains and overpriced furniture with Annabe, the only machine washable sofa inside and out where designer quality meets budget friendly pricing. Sofas start at just $699, making it the perfect time to upgrade your space. Annabe's pet friendly, stain resistant and interchangeable slipcovers are made with high performance fabric that's built for real life. You'll love the cloud like comfort of hypoallergenic high resilience foam that never needs fluffing and a durable steel frame that stands the test of time. With modular pieces you can rearrange anytime. It's to time a sofa that adapts to your Life. Now through July 4th get up to 60% off site [e-mail] Every order comes with a 30 day satisfaction guarantee. If you're not in love, send it back for a full refund. No return shipping, no restocking fees. Every penny back. Declare independence from dirty outdated furniture. Shop [e-mail] Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[Ray Ban]

Who needs headphones when you have glasses? Ray Ban Meta Glasses where style meets cutting edge tech. With discreet open air speakers and built in microphones, you can play your favorite tunes.

[Crystal]

Hey Meta.

[Ray Ban]

Play hip hop music and tune into the world around you. But listening is just the beginning because you can stay in the moment while your phone stays in your pocket as Meta AI provides answers to questions on the fly.

[Crystal]

Hey Meta, what's the weather tonight? Tonight will be clear with temperatures ranging.

[Ray Ban]

From capture and share moments.

[Crystal]

Hey Meta.

[Ray Ban]

Post this video on Instagram. You can even get Meta AI to make recommendations based on what you're looking at. Hey Meta, what can I make for dinner with what's in the fridge?

[Crystal]

You can make a delicious spinach and chicken salad or add the baby spinach to pasta with some garlic shrimp.

[Ray Ban]

Cool Ray Ban Meta Glasses choose from a variety of classic Ray Ban frames all with Meta [e-mail] AI classes and don't forget to say hey Meta. Play iHeartRadio to enjoy your favorite radio stations, artists and podcasts on the iHeart app.

[Crystal]

Israel's ongoing assault of Gaza has led to a radical Transformation of views when it comes to Israel and Palestinians. Harry Antnon, CNN has shocking poll numbers.

[Riley Herbst]

Who Democrats sympathize more with, Israelis or Palestinians? In 2017, the Democratic Party was a pro Israeli party. Look at this. They sympathize with the Israelis by 13 points. More with the Israelis than the Palestinians. But look at this sea change now. Democrats sympathize more with the Palestinians by 43 points. Oh, my God. That is a change in the margin of 56 points over the course of just eight years. So all of a sudden it's the pro Palestinian position that actually reigns supreme in Democratic politics, not the Israeli position. Now, you see this, you see this among Democrats, Democrats overall.

[Crystal]

Right.

[Riley Herbst]

But we know that Mandani's base was younger voters within the Democratic Party. And so I want to break it.

[Sagar]

Down with younger Democrats.

[Riley Herbst]

Correct. So take a look here. Who age 18 to 49 Democrats sympathize more with the Israelis or the Palestinians? Again in 2017, younger Democrats sympathize more with the Israelis by 14 points. Look at this shift now. Palestinians. They sympathize more with the Palestinians by 57 points. That is an over 70 point shift in the margin in just a matter of eight years. I rarely ever see shifts like this, Kate, in which you see one side of the equation leading by 14 points eight years ago and then all of a sudden the other side of the equation leading by 57 points. The bottom line is the politics around the Israelis and the Palestinians have shifted tremendously among Democrats. And they've shifted specifically tremendously among Democrats who are under the age of 50. They have just shifted more so than I think that anyone could possibly have imagined, say, eight years ago.

[Crystal]

Yeah. So, Emily, that is a major swing. And I'm not shocked that there has been a shift. You can kind of watch it happening in real time. But a 70 point swing.

[Sagar]

Yeah.

[Crystal]

Among young voters. And by young he meant under 50, which I'd be young. And I don't consider myself young.

[Sagar]

Congratulations on your newly rediscovered news.

[Crystal]

Young, according to Harry Anton. But across, across the board, a massive shift. How much of the. And we're also seeing a shift in the Republican Party. Yeah, Young sort of. That in particular among young voters.

[Sagar]

Yeah.

[Crystal]

So, you know, how do you think this kind of reshapes the way that this issue affects our politics?

[Sagar]

Well, I mean, you've written so extensively about aipac, and I think we're seeing a. And also, like the Jonathan Greenblatts and the Anti Defamation League, people were seeing a complete freakout because they coasted off America's good vibes on Israel for a really long time, especially inculcated in the minds of so many Americans after 9 11. Don't need to debate the reason, but obviously there was just an immense sensitivity to radical terrorists in the United States in those years. And so it was much easier for them to frame Israel as a sort of good versus bad Manichean dichotomy like it just was. They took for granted how easy that was. So now you see their freakout trying to paint people like Rameza Ozturk as Hamas sympathizers and tough student who was.

[Crystal]

Recently released but jailed for the op ed.

[Sagar]

Right. Yeah. That's just like snatched off the street by apparently ICE agents. And so anyway, all that is to say they have a lot less power than they used to. And that is going to materialize I think in the next couple of cycles as politicians who take their money realize it's not as helpful for them to be taking the positions that they need to in order to get the money. And I don't know that that'll show up right away, but it's, I mean, I think the polling is pretty clear that it's, it's already showed up, but I don't know how powerful it'll be as an electoral force in the next four to eight years, but it is going to be a powerful electoral force. They've lost the public support that they coasted off of.

[Crystal]

Yeah. And I think some of this is a, is a backlash to AIPAC and the pro Israel lobby kind of interfering in democratic politics in a way that has not done them favors. And so my last book, the Squad, has this history in it. So that poll started in 2017, 2018. You get the Squad elected, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar in particular, becoming first two Muslim women to serve in Congress. And in early 2019, Democratic majority for Israel DMFI formed as basically an offshoot of AIPAC by, you know, AIPAC supporters and AIPAC consultants specifically to push back against Talib and Omar.

[Sagar]

Right.

[Crystal]

That was their, that's, that's why they, that's why they rolled out. They said that they were seeing a current of what they called anti Israel sentiment within the Democratic Party and they were going to spend enormous amounts of money to suppress that. If you look at the numbers since then, DMFI and AIPAC have been engaged in the greatest failure of political operations like ever. Like what an absolute like catastrophe for them. If their goal was to do the thing they set out to, they instead did the opposite so they launched in 2019. The first candidate they ever spent money against actually was Bernie Sanders in Iowa. They then spent enormous amounts of money defending this guy, Elliot Engel, who was the chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee in the House, who was being challenged by Jamaal Bowman. They spent millions of dollars against Bowman, and Bowman beat him and knocked him out anyway. And so what they concluded from that 2020 cycle was that they had not spent enough money. And so DMFI raised more money. For 2022, APAC itself launched its first ever super PAC. It had never had a super PAC before. They had always just done small contributions of maxing out directly to candidates and.

[Sagar]

Buying goodwill with trips and those sorts of things.

[Crystal]

Goodwill with trips. And then if you cross us, we will fund a primary challenger and we will take you out. And you only have to do that a couple times. And then everybody else is like, okay, don't care this much about that issue. Just going to just use, I stand with Israel, you tell me what to do, and I'll. I'll say it. So 2022, they spend somewhere around 30 or $50 million going after Democrats who had said things that were sympathetic towards Palestinians. And they succeeded. They spent like seven, eight million dollars stopping Donna Edwards from coming back to Congress because in 2009, she had voted against some. 2008, there was another Israeli war on Gaza. She had voted the wrong way on one resolution. And so they were like, they spent $7 million to stop her. They spent many millions of dollars in like North Carolina to stop this City council candidate, Nita Alam, from becoming a member of Congress. She. She famously had been friends with the four. Three. There were three or four Muslim students, if you remember, in Chapel Hill, who were killed in like, this brutal hate crime. Like, killed because they were Muslim. And she then became like, got into politics as a result of that, was city council member and was trying to go to Congress, would have won. Ended up losing by like two points because they spent like $7 million against her then in 2024. And so across the board, they really blunted the growth of the squad like politicians. 2024, they spend 20 million against Jamal Bowman and knock him out and 10 million or so against Cori Bush, knock her out and spend $100 million in primaries across the country, in the Democratic primaries, making sure that nobody is critical of Israel. And so they were effectively able to beat a decent number of candidates. Like the Democratic caucus would look different when it comes to Israel, Palestine than it does now, if not for all of this spending. But good lord, the public. It has not worked on the Democratic public. In fact, if anything, it seems like it's backfired.

[Sagar]

Well, it often takes time because we're not a direct democracy, we're public, for the makeup of elected officials to catch up with public opinion. That's one of the things Trump forced among Republican voters is that you now have like a Jim Banks in the Senate, for example, or you now have. And even if you dispute that they're helping the working class know that, that's a raging argument, obviously. But even if you dispute that, they at least understand public opinion, they're reflecting public opinion. And that hasn't quite happen on this issue yet. But I don't think either major political party understands how much it's about to happen because they've been scapegoating, you know, this idea that all the anti Israel sentiment is anti Western Marxism as opposed to just saying this is insane. This is wildly bad policy. It's not making us safer. And I just don't think they're fully ready for how that's going to manifest in public opinion. Those numbers don't just reflect a shift. I think they reflect, especially for younger people, a shift in the like. This is way down on the list of most American voters. Priorities still is, but it's getting increasingly important to people. It's becoming increasingly animating because people are so pissed off about what they're seeing now that the media gatekeepers are less powerful. This information's coming through dropsite, it's coming through breaking points. And I don't know, Ryan, the last question that I have on this is how much of it is the way the Netanyahu government has waged this war since October 7th. And like, listen, we could go back and debate the history of how Israel's conducted itself in previous decades before October 7th. It seems that everyone at least agrees that what's happened since October 7th has been on another scale.

[Crystal]

Yeah, I think basically that's all. All of it. Like, it's the public recoiling at what they're seeing. And actually, for an unbelievably crystallizing example of that, let's. Can you pull up C2? This is a sat.

[Sagar]

What appear to be heavily armed American security contractors at one of the sites. Discuss how to disperse Palestinians nearby.

[Jeremy Scahill]

Got IDF tank posted on the northwest.

[Will Chamberlain]

Corner Now I brought him in and talked on the.

[Sagar]

At that moment, bursts of gunfire erupt close by. At least 15 shots. The camera's view is obscured by a large dirt mound. The contractor who took the video told AP that he saw other contractors shooting in the direction of Palestinians who had just collected their food and were departing.

[Crystal]

That's video obtained by the Associated Press that was posted yesterday along with a long investigation into allegations from American consultants working with the Gaza Humanitarian foundation, who say that what the Palestinians have been saying and what Haares has reported recently is true, that people connected to GHF have been firing at aid seekers. And what you heard in that video was 15 gunshots followed by, I think you hit one. And then, yeah, hell yeah, boy. Now there's a mound. So you can't see exactly what's happening. And that apparently has even left. Left some room for apologists to say, well, you know, who knows what could have happened? Yeah, he said, we heard the gunshot, and he said, you hit one. And then they celebrated hitting one. And later in that investigation, a guy says he saw somebody fall.

[Sagar]

Right.

[Crystal]

Like after the shot and the celebration of having hit one, they saw somebody fall. This is. Hamas is nowhere around here. This is not a live battle between Hamas and Gaza.

[Sagar]

Humanitarian. Right. It's not a live battle. But the claim that I think is. I mean, probably obvious is that there are Hamas people who are getting aid. Right. That they. I'm not saying it justifies it. I'm just saying, like, plausibly, are Hamas people in the crowd? But that doesn't mean that's not what they're going after.

[Crystal]

Right. Might be a guy who used to be part of Hamas or. Yeah, but he's going and getting a box or something. But, yeah, they're not.

[Sagar]

Right.

[Crystal]

GHF is not claiming that's why they're shooting at them. They claim they're not shooting at them. Like, they straight up deny that what you just saw in that video is happening. So I play that as an example, I think, of the reason that you're seeing these numbers shift, that it's horrifying and nobody can support shooting at hungry people.

[Sagar]

Yep.

[Crystal]

Unarmed hungry people.

[Sagar]

And one of the interesting things about after that Haaretz report, I don't know if you picked up on this. I know. Maybe it's. Maybe it's just me. Maybe it's naivete. But I thought it was very interesting that the Israeli government announced that they were doing an investigation instead of just flatly denying. I mean, obviously they're denying it, but they didn't dismiss it.

[Crystal]

And the reports that they changed their rules of engagement.

[Sagar]

Yeah.

[Crystal]

And you've now had IDF soldiers complaining that it's harder to get permission to shoot these, quote, Unquote, warning shots at people after they changed the rules. So they said, we're not really doing this, but then they changed the rules of engagement on whether they could do it. And so the Democratic leadership has been mostly immune from a lot of this pressure because of all the money spent by dmfi. But let's take a look at how voters now feel about their own Democratic leaders.

[Riley Herbst]

This is B3 party leaders, Democrats who say they want to replace their party leaders. Look at this. 62% nationally say yes, compared to just 24% who say no. That lines up with the idea that Democrats view their own members of Congress, their own leaders in Congress, record low approval rating. Democrats right now are out for blood. They want to take out their party leaders. And you saw that with Andrew Cuomo going, adios, amigos, goodbye, see you later in New York this past Tuesday.

[Crystal]

And Emily, that that is not the Democratic Party that I know. The Democratic Party base has always been a kind of support. The leaders support the leadership. To have them in this open state of rebellion is. Is a genuinely new phenomenon.

[Sagar]

Well, I wonder, I mean, yeah, that is a really big distinction between what happened post Tea Party and what happened with Democrats because it was pretty obvious that Republicans were furious with leadership. I think it was pretty obvious that Democrats were. Had a lot of reasons to be furious with leadership. But they kept. Yeah, but I don't know, I wonder if it's just because they didn't feel like there was any alternative to Democratic leadership. And it also, I think Democratic leadership was much more willing to signal cultural solidarity with the progressive wing. Meaning they were using it, and you've written about this, they were using some of it as a shield, saying equality act, trans rights in ways that signaled equity, in ways that signaled solidarity with progressives. And I wonder actually if that got them buy for a decade and it's just not working anymore.

[Crystal]

Maybe, I don't know, whatever it is, something is changing. And also, it seems like all of this has shut Richie Torres up for a second, which is quite amazing put up before this. Just kind of amusing development, I guess. You check out this. And you can go check out this tweet from Hamid Benez. He says here's a remarkable stat showing the Zoron effect. The account. Richie Torres hasn't tweeted either the word Israel or Hamas since June 18, 14 days ago. It's now more. That is the longest stretch by seven days that Torres has not tweeted one of those words since October 7, 2023. And you can just scroll through the Richie Torres quote post. So Torres, the most kind of outspoken Democratic Democrat when it comes to support for Israel, the most combative and aggressive out there. For him to be quiet for this long I think reflects that there is a centrifugal force involved in those numbers.

[Sagar]

Hey, I mean, I can't think of Richard Torres anymore without flashing back to Jamaal Bowman with his arm around you and Griffin at the Zoran. That was something else.

[Crystal]

He's a whack mf.

[Sagar]

Maybe that did it actually. Maybe that was Richie Torres was like, you're right, I am whack.

[Crystal]

And he since that's true, Bowman just canceled him. It's the Bowman effect, actually canceled him. Amazing.

[Sagar]

Things are changing. Things are changing, that's for sure.

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[Crystal]

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[Will Chamberlain]

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