Krystal Ball (1:44)

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

Saagar Enjeti (1:51)

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

Krystal Ball (1:57)

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

Saagar Enjeti (2:08)

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com Good morning everybody. Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?

Krystal Ball (2:20)

Indeed we do. First, we are asking the question, is the AI bubble popping? I guess is there an AI bubble and it's popping. I think the bubble part is pretty definitive.

Saagar Enjeti (2:29)

Yes, but the popping is the question.

Krystal Ball (2:31)

The question.

Saagar Enjeti (2:31)

But there are some very interesting signs. It says a lot about art.

Krystal Ball (2:33)

We're going to dig into that very important topic. We are also going to take a look at Bibi sat down with the gentleman of trigonometry. So producer Griffin pulled a couple clips for us to react to. This all comes as the invasion of Gaza City has begun. Tim Dillon is sounding off on the D.C. national Guard situation. Had some protests here in the city yesterday against Stephen Miller and J.D. vance. We'll take a look at that. We also have Megyn Kelly sitting down with Marjorie Taylor Greene. Some interesting comments and revelations there. Sagra has an update for us on that Israeli alleged pedophile who was able to fly out of the country. Digging into exactly how that unfolded and what is going to happen next. He also has some thoughts about this new war on property taxes coming from Republicans.

Saagar Enjeti (3:16)

Well, I hope you'll join me because.

Krystal Ball (3:18)

I will join you. But I just want to give credit that this is your, this is your thing.

Saagar Enjeti (3:23)

If I'd had the time to do the monologue, I would have, but I have been just going down. I've had the baby in one arm and property tax chatgpt in the other. And I have just been. I'm getting more radicalized by the day. Boomers. I'm already gonna warn you, if you watch this segment, it's gonna you off. I don't care. I don't care. I'm doing this for the young.

Krystal Ball (3:41)

What direction? I'm curious, how would you describe your radicalization?

Saagar Enjeti (3:44)

Oh, I'm much more in favor of the young. Like, I mean, we are living in a country which has socialism for the old and rugged individualism for the young. So if we're gonna have anything, it should be flipped. If I think most people would.

Krystal Ball (3:53)

I don't even think it's rugged individualism for the young. It's like the deck is stacked.

Saagar Enjeti (3:57)

Oh, yeah, yeah, I agree. No, I mean, it's not even like rugged individualism now at this point, it's actually the opposite where the boomers are using their oppress, tax status and wealth to literally oppress the lower classes to force us to pay for their dialysis. So I just can't get over it. Like the more numbers that I have been crunching and all of this, I'm in shock, I'm naive that I did not look into this earlier. And it's all coming to head With Florida, Texas and an increasingly number of red states which are already zero tax.

Krystal Ball (4:30)

States wanting to do away with property running on getting rid of the property tax.

Saagar Enjeti (4:34)

He is and this is, this is entirely driven by seniors. So anyway, I'll go off on it.

Krystal Ball (4:39)

Yes. And I'm going to take a look at the rise of a new eugenics movement coming out of Silicon Valley. But in being represented in various sectors of society. There was a wild interview with this lady with Ross Douthat who she is a founder of a company where you can do this like embryo selection and very dystopian interview and very dystopian future and present possibilities I would say going on there. So I'll dig into all of that before we do though. Thank you so much for those of you who have been supporting the show, enabling the great reporting that Sagar has been doing this week, enabling the expansion into the full week Friday show as well. As you guys know, the premium subscribers were the first ones in the world to get to see the official arrest notes of that alleged Israeli pedophile. So you do get some benefits for signing up.

Saagar Enjeti (5:26)

I do really like it means a lot for them to support our journalism because literally that thing of scratching an itch and just putting in the work, I mean it took a lot of work actually to get those documents. It was a lot of time on the phone and I familiarize myself with Las Vegas. By the way, to our Las Vegas audience, I feel sorry for you guys. You live in a mafia state. Like I'm really beginning to learn. And when I break down this story, it's nuts. Like who the lawyer is, the connections to Israel, the Adelson mafia who run the state, who own the largest newspaper. I mean I am getting radio station silence from the Las Vegas, Nevada political establishment and like the word has come down. But the good news is that people are pissed off the rank and file in Henderson City, in the police department, amongst the FBI and others. So I'm hoping that there'll be some more exclusive reporting soon.

Krystal Ball (6:19)

Yeah. Anyway, thank you BreakingPoints.com if you can sign up and help us out. Sagar, what are we looking at with AI?

Saagar Enjeti (6:25)

We're looking at the AI bubble and potential signs of popping. I mean this is one of those where everybody's predicted it for quite some time and everyone's wondering if this is going to be like 2000 all over again. And there are some signs that happened just yesterday. Let's go and put this up there on the screen. The US Tech stocks slipped as investors rotate towards defensive sectors. So what they talk about specifically is that a decline in U.S. stocks extended into Wednesday as concerns about the durability of the rally in artificial intelligence shares prompted a shift into defensive sectors. So specifically the tech heavy NASDAQ was down some 0.7% while the blue chip S and P just lost by 0.2. So what they say is that the big tech groups specifically are coming under selling pressure, falling 1 or 2%. Palantir stocks actually down some 20% just in the last couple of days. There's a big question exactly as to why. A lot of it has to do with capital expenditure. And what I think we've tried to highlight here on the show previously is that a significant part of the reason that US GDP remains okay at the top line figure is also all because of AI data spending. And that's really dangerous because it's not broad based over the economy. It doesn't mean that people are feeling confident about investing in America. What it also means is that Mark Zuckerberg could quite literally engineer an entire recession if he just paused the current rate of AI data spending. And we're already seeing some indications that that could happen. Similarly, there are increasing numbers of studies about the promise of AI. This is what people need to always remember with the stock market. It's always looking at future value. It's about the promise of set technology. So the expectation of Nvidia value of AI is not just their current use but about what it may unlock for the future. So let's put this passage up very importantly because what they say is that some traders on Wall street are pinning some of the decline on a new report which actually released on Monday by MIT which said that quote 95% of organizations are getting zero return from their investments in generative AI, the technology that obviously sent the stocks to the moon. It says the story is spooking people. Just 5% of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions of dollars in value while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable profit and loss impact. So this is about a question of productivity. It's about a question of what this will actually unlock for the future. I mean I've talked here previously about how a lot of the pie in the sky promises may ultimately just be marketing and most of it is just about eliminating like very entry level scut work. For me personally, like I use ChatGPT AI every day. I use it for math, like to compute various, like I was talking about property taxes to be able to do like a large sum math which is actually quite good at and for research, but all that's really doing is saving me some time while conducting research. And as you also know with ChatGPT, you actually have to go and check most of the figures. So I mean, look, that's great. I mean it definitely serves me time and it's convenient. But is that unlocking like billions of dollars in potential here for breaking points? Like at this point? We've been living in this environment for three years. Yeah, it's nice, you know, oh, you can do a little bit more of a thumbnail. I can crunch some data. Every once in a while I'll upload the analytics. They'll be like, oh, tell me about some standout things. But actually YouTube analytics are pretty good at that. They've been pretty good at that for years. I haven't seen a lot of the promises yet. And we literally run a business and so it's helpful and if anything we may want to run a business which is supposed to be like most impacted for creative endeavors, for a lean startup kind of machine. So then I think about it at the enterprise level and they're not seeing a lot of it either. Like it's making things a little bit easier. But that's not the same thing as unlocking trillions of dollars in value.

Krystal Ball (10:17)

Yeah, I mean, I think it could both be the case that AI in the same way that the, you know, the Internet bubble, the dot com bubble ended up, there were a lot of companies that were not real and that didn't have any sort of real revenue model and that ultimately went bu. But also that the technology ends up being quite disruptive and quite transformational. I think those things could both be the case. That's where I suspect we're going. But yeah, I mean as of right now, it's like replacing entry level workers, which is not great. Replacing Google, which is not really changing the game. It's changing a lot of sort of Internet dynamics and Internet revenue models, but is not sort of transformational. Completely cheating on tests and porn basically. Like, I mean it's very, again very reminiscent of the Internet. And I'm sure the startups that will succeed immediately in the near term are the ones that are like most plugged into the porn economy is probably where things are going to be going. I also think it's very likely, you know, when you look at Those stats of 95% of these AI companies are don't have a revenue model. It reminds very much of the like the media boom where you had all of these like startup media companies that were supposed to be appealing to millennials that would get huge traffic, or at least claim to get huge traffic. And there was an assumption that they'd be able to figure out how to fully monetize that. And often that did not come to fruition. I think probably because we are in an era of mass industry consolidation where monopolies sort of rule the economy, we're probably going to end up with one or two or three, just a handful of winners in the AI economy.

Saagar Enjeti (11:55)

And they plan on that. They even say that openly. Well, that's kind of an arms race.

Krystal Ball (11:58)

That's exactly right. It's an arms race. We think nationally of the arms race between the US and China. But each of these companies individually are in an arms race. That's why they're spending so much and putting so much on the line right now to try to get the edge in this field, because they realize it's going to be somewhat akin to a winner take all type of technology where it's very likely people consolidate against around one leader that has the technological edge or proves itself to be the most useful or just becomes the most, you know, culturally taken up for whatever reason. And so that's why they're all pushing so many chips on the table in this direction right now. And that means that you will have, you know, some company or some few companies out there who are big winners. And, you know, you probably end up with the world's first trillionaires as a result of this technology. That doesn't mean that you're going to have a broad based, flourishing ecosystem. And let's keep in mind, of course, that the ultimate promise of this technology is to completely upend the labor market and replace a lot of human beings. So it's one thing to talk about the stock market. You also have to keep your eye on what this means for the real economy over the long term. Now, one thing that's different from the dot com boom is you do have a lot of actual building.

Saagar Enjeti (13:13)

Yeah, that's the money.

Krystal Ball (13:15)

Right. Of building out these data centers. Now that's sort of like a one time expenditure. You build out these data centers. It's not like those are ongoing construction projects. It's not like you need that many people at the data center to maintain it. But there are like, you know, real world construction projects, lots of them going on across the country to fuel this boom.

Saagar Enjeti (13:34)

Yeah, I forget the book I read about Dotcom and early Silicon Valley. But one of the better things that happened as a result of Dotcom is it financed a Lot of fiber optic cables that were laid all across the country which was the backbone for not high speed but higher speed Internet. And the move away from dial up it ended up being actually quite important for the eventual adoption of like, like the PC and the home and email and all that. So there was some upside to the capex spending that was financed by a lot of that insanity. So it could be something like that. But if you go back and you compare the rhetoric of the information superhighway that Microsoft and all those other people were talking about, none of it even came close to coming to pass. This is the point we go to the next part up on the screen about the data centers. Cause this is really important just they point exactly what I was saying. They say quote partying like it's 1995 United States AI relative private fixed investment as a percent of GDP is just crazy high. The vast short run impact they say on GDP economic growth. One sixth of growth over the entire past year is just data spend. And 50% of all growth in the US economy over the last six months so far it is much smaller than the 1990s.com build out. But it remains still very important for us to keep an eye on and just shows the impact of how again even minute changes in the way that these companies do business it could send everything belly up. This will impact, this is already impacting interest rates, the overall stock market, the U.S. you know, I mean think about borrowing costs. Everything is now downstream of how these like four or five different companies spend their money. Let's put the next one please up on the screen. This is very interesting and a lot of people were looking at this. This is about Meta is now planning a quote fourth restructuring of its AI efforts in six months. Just to show you how capricious some of this stuff can be. And what they say is that they're gon divide their new AI unit into four different groups. The reason why people are paying a lot of attention to that is because first of all you can change restructuring your AI effort in six months. So that's what every two months or whatever, like you're changing your business plan. But it's moving so rapidly and in such a way that again changes to the way that they spend money which is billions of dollars would have immediate impact on the entire US GDP and US economy. There's also some very interesting signs showing up about the impact of these data centers. One of these is electricity prices. Let's put this up there on the screen. This is a flag that somebody sent to me recently, which I was not aware of and is shocking. So you can see electricity price from 2020 is up 30. This is from the Federal Reserve bank is up 38% in the last five years. It was basically stable from 2015 to 2020. Now, there's a lot of different reasons why you could see the huge jump from 2022. That's the Ukraine war, that's natural gas. There's also been the impact on gas prices, gasoline changes to the overall energy markets. But even from 2022, you can see we've almost gone up as much from 2020 to 2022 as we did from 2022 to today. And especially look at that massive bump just in the last six months of the increase in the overall average price of electricity. Some be accounted in data center. And so increasingly, there's going to be a big fight in Washington. And I think at state and local level of people being like, hold on a second, you know, I'm not, I'm not, yeah, you can come here and that's great. And yeah, you're going to employ 500 people. But all of a sudden my electricity bill goes sky high also. This, of course, impacts the poorest residents the hardest. It's the fixed costs like gasoline. Electricity prices just generally like maintaining, even if you're a renter or any of that. I mean, 38% to your bottom line for fixed costs. That's extraordinary if you think about it. Massively outpaces even inflation. So you put those two things together and you could see like a future organic pushback against a lot of this new data center economy. Especially for my friends, my home state in Texas. I mean, you literally just have your own power grid and you've got data centers popping up all over the state. You have more of a deregulated energy market already, which is more vulnerable to price fluctuation, I guess, as I understand it. And you could have a disaster, right, in terms of the overall aggregate price. It's not something that just can be fixed overnight, as we've all found out.

Krystal Ball (18:05)

Yeah, no, I mean, these data centers are unbelievably energy and water hungry. Unbelievably so. And you also have, you know, in the one big beautiful bill, they, you know, attacked a bunch of different energy sources. So it's not like we're really building out either the infrastructure or the sourcing that we need to be able to fuel this boom. And the approach of American tech companies in particular has just been to build out, build out, build out, build out. That's part of the arms race here that's going on. You can listen to Sam Altman talking to Theo Vaughn about how these data centers are gonna just like populate the entire Earth and make the whole thing look like it's a computer chip board. So that's the direction we're heading in. And there's also real quality of life issues too. If one of these is located in your community, they're very noisy, they're very dirty, they're very noisy. And so there have been a lot of complaints about the communities where these have been located as well. So, look, on the one hand you get the construction jobs right out of the gates. So I'm sure people who work in that industry very much appreciate that work. But it comes with all sorts of drawbacks and you're really sort of sucking the resources out of the rest of society for an industry that again, ultimately aims to put you out of work, put most workers around the world out of a job, and consolidate even more wealth and power in their own hands. In terms of where we are economically, whether it's a bubble, I think it's pretty undeniable. When you look at stats like 95% of these companies don't even make any money, that seems like a pretty clear indication that we are in some sort of a bubble. So not only do we have those longer term concerns about what this technology is going to do to society and very little grappling with that in terms of the economic cost and the environmental cost, but you also have a potential short term economic collapse on the table because of the bubble that's been inflated around the promise of this technology.

Saagar Enjeti (20:02)

And then finally, we just wanted to put this in here about these Meta chatbots. If anybody's not aware, crazy story, let's put it up here on the screen. You could see here like you could chat with AI to something called rich but strict parents. This follows. There's actually an open investigation now in the US Senate over a leaked document which quote, showed the tech giants artificial intelligence was permitted to have sensual and romantic chats with children. An internal document said that Meta has acknowledged it. They said that it was, quote, erroneous and inconsistent with our policies and have since been removed. But I mean, these things exist in your kid's Instagram app or anywhere else for these chatbots which kids can just engage with. I don't know. I mean, that's as dystopian as it gets.

Krystal Ball (20:56)

I'm pretty sure it was Wall Street Journal that did most of the reporting on this And I read through was pretty shocking.

Saagar Enjeti (21:02)

It's creepy.

Krystal Ball (21:03)

And you know what else, Sagar? They licensed the voices of, like, John Cena.

Saagar Enjeti (21:07)

Yes.

Krystal Ball (21:08)

No, I know Kristen Bell, who plays Anna in Frozen. And one of the stipulations was, you know, you can't use my voice for, like, sexting, basically, you know, because they have a brand that they want to maintain and they don't want to be used for that. There were no prohibitions. And not only that, users were able to program chatbots because a lot of these chatbots are actually, like, user created. They can create their own. Users were able to create their own chatbots to have, like, Kristen Bell's voice as Anna, but in sexual roleplay. Yeah. I mean, why. So I don't see how that's not a lawsuit for them because they paid millions of dollars to acquire these voice capabilities from these famous actors. And then that's going on. You have chatbots that are like one that the Wall Street Journal tested was called Submissive Schoolgirl, where it's. The chat bot is posing as a middle school girl. And you can imagine the type of role play that this bot is happy to engage in. And then you also had the other direction where teens and children, I mean, teens are children, could engage in, you know, whatever with any of these chatbots. And apparently what had happened is internally Meta's safety team had all of this, like, prohibited. And then at some expo, Zuckerberg was unhappy with the, like, level of risk taking. And so he specifically is, according to their reporting, intervened. It was like, you need to take off the brakes.

Saagar Enjeti (22:45)

That's wild.

Krystal Ball (22:46)

And let all of this fly. And there were a lot of internal concerns. I mean, I suspect some of these leaks probably came from internally. People like, what the fuck is going on here? And so, yeah, it really was Zuckerberg. And now I think that they've tried to reign some things in, but when I saw the headline, I thought it would be sort of like, borderline.

Saagar Enjeti (23:05)

No, it's not overblown.

Krystal Ball (23:06)

It's not borderline.

Saagar Enjeti (23:07)

It's real.

Krystal Ball (23:07)

It's really, really overt. And so, I mean, I just think about. Too obviously, I'm a mom. I got three kids. One of them is a preteen. One of them is 17 years old. I've got a little girl who's 8. And. And kids also get. They have a harder time distinguishing between, like, this is a real person and this is, you know, this is a youtuber who I'm not gonna have a relationship, or this is some sort of tech or this is like a cartoon character. And so also just thinking about what the formation of these relationships are gonna mean for kids. Even putting aside the sexual part, like what that's gonna do to kids, I don't think anyone knows. I don't think anyone's thinking it through. We're just using them as like guinea pigs. Let's just turn a loose and see what.

Saagar Enjeti (23:53)

It's a good point you make about children. I mean, if you think about when kids go to Disney, not that my kid will go to Disney, I have made the blood oath. She'll probably make me break it. But at least for now, that's the blood oath. And they think the characters are real. You know, they meet Goofy and they're like, oh my God, it's Goofy. Well, now imagine if he could chat with Goofy. Sounds cute. Until it's not cute, right? And so just take that to its logical conclusion. And that's already where we are, man. I just saw some good news though. Jonathan Haidt's book the anxious generation, 73 weeks on the list at number one for New York Times bestseller. So a lot of parents still, they're waking up and they're fighting back. So please, you know, if you can.

Krystal Ball (24:33)

We are outmatched.

Saagar Enjeti (24:34)

If you're a parent out there, read the book.

Krystal Ball (24:35)

We're outmatched.

Saagar Enjeti (24:36)

No, you definitely aren't. But read the book. It will give you some good guidelines if every public policy, every public school should be required reading. His phone free school idea is so, so important. And if you're involved in your local politics at all, you gotta push the school district to go for it. It's vital. Vital to making sure.

Krystal Ball (24:54)

And as parents, you gotta be on top of.

Saagar Enjeti (24:55)

What?

Krystal Ball (24:56)

You're kidding. Consuming and watching and doing it. My kid is three months old. It's not easy.

Saagar Enjeti (25:00)

I put the damn TV on. It's like a magnet for the. I was like, oh my God. I mean, you know, I guess I grew up in the 90s. It was probably the same way, but. But it just shows you the power of the screen on a developing brain for someone whose only word is gah. And you're like, wow. Like, that just shows what you're really up against.

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Krystal Ball (26:18)

CBS this Labor Day.

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Krystal Ball (27:20)

Good morning. Welcome to today.

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Krystal Ball (27:40)

We're getting back to all of it and the best way to start is together.

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Saagar Enjeti (27:51)

All right, let's get to the next part.

Krystal Ball (27:52)

All right. So fresh off his blockbuster appearance with the Nelk Boys, Benjamin Netanyahu has now joined the gentleman of Trigonometry for an appearance. Admittedly, I haven't had a chance. This came out last night, so I haven't had a chance to watch the whole thing. Producer Griffin pulled a couple clips that he thought were interesting. Let's go ahead and take a listen to this first one. This is Constantine saying, basically, listen, I don't think there's any peace possible with these people in Gaza because they are quote unquote, Jew haters. Let's take a listen.

Saagar Enjeti (28:20)

And then you're gonna say, and then we need a civilian government in Gaza that's not hostile to Israel. And that's where you lose me, Prime Minister, because I look at the opinion polls, I look at the people celebrating October 7th in Gaza, I look at the fact that thousands of civilians crossed into Israel on October 7 to commit the atrocities that were committed. And I go, these people hate you, they hate you, they hate Israel and they hate Jews. How are you going to have a peaceful coexistence with those people? Particularly given the fact that, as Francis mentioned earlier, they have been very heavily radicalized, not only through the education system, but through the fact that they've been on the receiving end on Israel's war efforts that. Well, I think you, what you're pointing out to is that you need also a program of deradicalization. Now, has that been done in, in societies that been conditioned to hate their, their adversaries? Yes, of course. It's been done in two places, prominently in Japan and in, in Germany. But it's also been done in the Middle East. I mean, there have been very noteworthy programs, successful programs of de. Radicalization in some of the Gulf states, which are actually proving to be, to break the, you know, this prototype of Arab societies that cannot seize the future. I'm not saying they're model democracies, mind you. They're not, but they're certainly, they certainly want to seize modernity and not go back to the savage and early medievalism.

Krystal Ball (29:57)

Please tell me how Constantine is making Netanyahu sound more moderate than him. And like, yeah, just the idea that, okay, these people hate you. Yeah, gee, I wonder why. Maybe it's because they've been like, occupied and being starved and bombed to pieces for. And not Even just post October 7th, but also. Sagri, you can speak to this. How many times throughout history have we seen bitter enemies, I was about to say, who hate each other. And guess what? When you're able to come up with some sort of, of a peace deal and have a coexistence that fades over time, we can See it with our own country. We were bitter enemies, obviously. Went to war with Germany and Japan and now these are some of our closest allies.

Saagar Enjeti (30:33)

You can see it inside of our own country. North and south took a long time to shake out.

Krystal Ball (30:37)

That's exactly right.

Saagar Enjeti (30:38)

I mean that is the Israeli line, which drives me more insane than any other is we can't be expected to live next to these people. No, actually you can. If India has to live next to Pakistan, you can do it too. All right. Yeah. They both have nuclear weapons and mutually assured destruction. If Iran has to live next to next to Saudi Arabia, then so can you. I could go on forever. Northern Ireland and Ireland, you know, I mean, how many of these have we now lived through? They're like they actually Israeli exception is that they wanna be the only nation in the history of the world that actually is not required to live next to the people, quote, who hate them. Everybody else has to deal with it. And in fact one of the normal, like established things Post World War II, which we're told for why we have to support Ukraine in its war against Russia after they invade is oh well, we just simply can't allow gangster states to do as they please in their neighborhood. Based upon old revanchist revisionist history of Pre World War II. Like when Russia, when Putin starts talking about Ivan the Great and the Treaty of Brest Litovsk, everybody in the Western political establishment rolls their eyes. But when these people talking about 3,000 years ago, I mean, yeah, that's the other thing. So which one's more legitimate? 1789 of Crimea or 3,000 years ago? Judea, Samaria and these ancient biblical texts promise us the land. They think that's legitimate. The Western political establishment says that the latter is legitimate, but the former is a violation of post World War II norms. No, I mean, which one? And even if you disregard all of that, I'm not a huge believer in the so called Western liberal democratic order or anything, but you can look from south, I can't think of a continent where people have not been forced to, quote, live next to the people who hate them. That yes, it is simply a fact of life. Because the alternative is basically the current Israeli strategy is mass displacement and killing, mass murder. I mean, I guess that is one which theoretically you could go down that road again. Supposedly one of the norms after World War I and World War II was hey, actually we don't allow that so to kind of happen or at the very least we're not gonna support it. Well, again, we've flipped it on its head. So the premise of that is preposterous and especially for somebody from the UK who's one of the more recent Western nations which quite literally had to force this entire. The troubles and all that. I mean that happened in my parents lifetime, if you didn't think about it.

Krystal Ball (33:13)

That's right.

Saagar Enjeti (33:13)

It was considered an intractable conflict, literally. From what, when was the first war of Irish independence? I'm thinking, I mean, hundreds of years, I don't even know the date off the top of head all the way to 1919 and then post World War II and separation, the Northern Irish question, the troubles, the border, you know, all the way up to the eu. These are even today very sensitive issues, you know, after Brexit, about the movement between the two borders. So again, you can't sit and tell me that you can't be expected. You can actually, you can and you will because we should fork you to.

Krystal Ball (33:46)

Yeah, I mean the better question is how Palestinians, after this, a genocide of them, could be expected to live next to the Israelis.

Saagar Enjeti (33:53)

But, but that's something we should expect of them too. We're like, listen, you got a shit deal, but you have to live here.

Krystal Ball (33:58)

That's exactly right. I mean, that's the nature of, you know, of humanity. That's the nature of being able to have some sort of an agreement. And yes, over time, not to say that there won't be continue to be tensions as there are, you know, in Ireland and Northern Ireland, like there continue to be tensions, but the idea that, oh no, you couldn't possibly live next to these is just preposterous and historically illiterate. There was another interesting section where the other host, Francis, is pressing Netanyahu a bit on some of the comments of the Smotriches and the Ben Gvirs. Let's go ahead and take a listen to how that went down.

Saagar Enjeti (34:33)

There are critics of yours, Prime Minister, who will say, well, part of the reason that Israel is losing the propaganda war is when you have ministers like Smotrick making incendiary or inflammatory comments and there doesn't seem to be any particular pushback from your government to this, they go, well, what does a Prime Minister really believe? What I believe, I say. In a parliamentary system, people are free to say. Sometimes they say things they don't quite mean. It happens all the time. You have a very active fringe. Prime Minister, forgive me, but these aren't parliamentarians. These are people who are part of your government and they remain part of your government after they say these things that to Many people, even your friends, sound a little bit like ethnic claims cleansing is being discussed. Well, we're not discussing ethnic cleansing. And to the extent that we have these conversations around the cabinet, the security Cabinet, that is actually not being discussed by these people. But Prime Minister, may I just interrupt when you have your finance minister making a speech and talking about occupying Gaza and there doesn't seem to be any pushback within the government, people, quite rightly, in my opinion, would say, well, surely aren't you condoning that type of rhetoric? No. And that is exacerbating Israel's PR problem. I disagree completely when somebody says that and I'm asked, is that your policy? And I say, no, it's not my policy. I don't intend to build settlements or communities in Gaza and not Israeli ones. I want a non Israeli civilian governance after that is committed to living in peace with us.

Krystal Ball (36:06)

It is so unbelievably dishonest at this point to still pretend like that's not your policy and you condemn it and you have nothing to do with it. But you also gotta give me credit because I called that this would be exactly how you did.

Saagar Enjeti (36:17)

Because I asked for solutions.

Krystal Ball (36:18)

Shifted democracy. Yes, we have a fringe inflammatory rhetoric, blah, blah, blah.

Saagar Enjeti (36:23)

I was like, how is he gonna square that? Cause it's true. But I had not, I didn't put myself in the mind of Bibi to be like, yes, we have free speech, we have a vibrant society where we allow such thing. But I mean, to Francis credit, he was like, no, this isn't. It would be like somebody else using Ilhan Omar's statements. I mean, yeah, you could say that. Be like, look, we have 435 members of Congress, one of them, Marjorie Taylor Greener. Ilhan, they say some crazy shit sometimes, whatever, but that is not the same. Whenever those people are actually in power, members of the government, members who, when.

Krystal Ball (36:54)

The government policy reflects their desire and.

Saagar Enjeti (36:57)

Then government policy reflects their desire to the point where they're handing out weapons in the west bank and or US Dollars, which they then use to prop up their expansionist regime. That, that's very different than, oh, we have free speech. This is the thing about Bibi, he's the master. It's not like he has always, in his perfect Philadelphia born English, he understands which parts are distasteful to the US public. And so in English, he does not endorse any of this stuff. But again, in the age of Google Translate and AI, if I will, you can easily dub the stuff he says in Hebrew and it's it's the same stuff.

Krystal Ball (37:39)

That's right.

Saagar Enjeti (37:39)

That's the stuff that drives me crazy too.

Krystal Ball (37:41)

Yeah. And that's part of what I think, the framing of the question. I have all kinds of issues with the framing the question. First of all, the idea that Israel just has a PR problem is just disgusting. In my opinion, genocide.

Saagar Enjeti (37:53)

We're going to get to it with Meghan. She said that too. She's like the Palestinians are masters of.

Krystal Ball (37:57)

Propaganda and that the problem is just this incendiary rhetoric. And why don't you do more to condemn this incendiary rhetoric? Well, because he supports it. Because he is the one implementing and pushing forward the policy that they want to see. I mean we're talking right now as Gaza City is being invaded. You had another security minister who said that Gaza City itself should be exactly like Rafah, which we turned into a city of ruins. Again, this is not some random fringe character. These are people in the security cabinet who have power. We also can talk about the moving forward of a critical number of settlements that will completely destroy the idea that there could ever be a two state solution. So to frame this as like a rhetoric or a messaging issue at this point is frankly disgusting. But I mean it is. At least he pushed him on something, you know, certainly was more prepared.

Saagar Enjeti (38:56)

You gotta give the guy more than the Nelk boys.

Krystal Ball (38:59)

More prepared than the Nelk boys. They did set the bar like in the basement but they were more prepared by the knock boys. But I don't know Sagar, what can you get out of these type of interviews with Netanyahu? Because we know we can predict his answers before he gives him. The American western media is full of Israeli hasbara propaganda. We know exactly what their line is all the time because we get it from every single news outlet. So I'm not sure what you really get get new out of hearing Netanyahu for the thousandth time gaslight us about what's really going on and what his position really and truly is.

Saagar Enjeti (39:37)

I don't know. I mean I still think it is worth it. There's a lot of issues with this in general. Part of the reason that Netanyahu agrees is cuz Constantine has just been so massively pro Israel as he displayed in his question. At the same time getting people on the record is and actually asking them even about the word ethnic cleansing is good because what did he do? He denied ethnic cleansing. That's not even a question that has happened currently from the western media and or inside of Israeli media. Cuz they're not gonna push it because frankly a lot of them support it. And so at the very least, like you get it for the historical record, you're not going to change policy. That's a fantasy for most journalists. But you know, challenging, actually getting to the heart of it. I think he could have done a better job, but he did better than a lot of other people. So you gotta give credit where it is due. You ask the question, look, I mean nobody's gonna sit there and be like, you're a war criminal. And be like, you know what, you're right, I am a war criminal. That's the fantasy. But at the end of the day, getting the reaction, at the very least, pressing on the security issue, it can make an impact. They could have made more. I mean if they were better prepared, they could have specifically gone through the actual. Cuz the challenge of the question is the premise was that it's Bibi's government and not Bibi himself. When it's like, no, actually, I mean even if you compare his original answer on quote, civilian government and occupation, it's like your government is currently engaged in a plan to force other nations to accept Palestinians. How is that non ethnic cleansing? Right. And I'll be like, that's something you are doing.

Krystal Ball (41:06)

And even if you just wanna stay in the lane of rhetoric, pull up Bibi's own cops.

Saagar Enjeti (41:09)

Oh totally. You know, Amalek.

Krystal Ball (41:11)

Yeah. And what are the Children of the Darkness and all this other crap that he's said? I mean you can pull up direct statements from him that are the. It's like no, you're not really any. You may couch it more for English western media, but you are on board. You sound very similar to how all of these guys sound. And his life mission has been to make sure that there is no Palestinian state.

Today Show Announcer (41:35)

The reviews and ratings are in and Ice Cube's Big three is the surprise hit of the summer. And to cap off the season, iheart presents the big three basketball playoffs. This Sunday at 3pm Eastern. The remaining four teams battle it out for the right to make the Big three championship in the most physical, fierce and competitive basketball league in the world. The action starts with the Big Three Monster Energy celebrity game where your favorite stars compete in big three three on three basketball. Then the first of two semifinal games features Dwight Howard and the LA Riot taking on Montrez Harold and Dr. J's first place Chicago triplets. The finale will see popular Miami 305 with stars MVP Michael Beasley and Lance will make you Dan Stevenson take on Nancy Lieberman's Dallas power who finished the season winning five straight weeks to capture second place. Can Glenn Rice, Greg Monroe and Paul Millsap stop Miami's physical assault? Or will Miami and Beasley put an end to Dallas winning ways? Who will make it to the Big Three championship? This no holds barred action starts Sunday at 3pm Eastern, 12 Pacific only on CBS.

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Krystal Ball (43:35)

Good morning. Welcome to today.

Today Show Announcer (43:37)

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Krystal Ball (43:56)

We're getting back to all of it and the best way to start is together.

Today Show Announcer (44:00)

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Krystal Ball (44:07)

Let's go and get to the very latest with regard to what is going on. Let's put this image up on the screen just so everybody knows what we're talking about with Gaza City here. So this is the before and after already. Gaza City is, you know, you know, so much of it is destroyed and just turned into rubble and unlivable by any reasonable standard. Nevertheless, the invasion of Gaza, the re invasion of Gaza City has begun. The latest that I saw was that the Israeli army had reached the outskirts of Gaza City, which of course is the largest city in the Gaza Strip. You know, many hundreds of thousands. We don't know exactly how many, but many hundreds of thousands of people have returned now to Gaza City. Remember, remember the way that this, their initial invasion occurred sort of went from north to south, and people kept getting pushed further and further and further south until they were in Rafah. All eyes were on Rafah. And then Rafah was utterly and completely destroyed. Now you have, as I said before, high level security minister in the security cabinet saying, hey, we want to do to Gaza City what we did to Rafah. Palestinians are trying to decide whether or not we can put the next element before up on the screen, guys, as well. While Palestinians are trying to decide whether they're going to move yet again, you know, be displaced yet again. Many of them have had to relocate some five, six, seven, eight different times. They are utterly exhausted. They have little resources in terms of food or money or anything else. Most of the structures in the entire Gaza Strip, not just in Gaza City, have been destroyed. So it's not like you can go and like rent an apartment. Everything is bombed to pieces. In fact, there's a drop site, did a piece on the. The dystopian real estate market that has sprung up where people will rent even something that has been bombed, you know, and is effectively like a shell, if it even has any sort of roof that is intact. That's what we're talking about. So, you know, I remember Senator Slotkin told us that the sort of conventional military attack had finished. That is very much not the case. It is escalating. There are already horrific images which are coming out. And so, you know, I mean, I think this dovetails. Well, with the interview that was done here by the guys over at Trigger Nometry where Netanyahu's tried, oh, no, ethnic cleansing. I would never. We don't want to occupy. Blah, blah, blah. And meanwhile, this is what's actually unfolding in the real world.

Saagar Enjeti (46:38)

Yeah, no, it is crazy, especially because we were saying, you know, we don't even have a lot of images from it. And there's kind of a reason why a lot of it is because most of these journalists are dead. That was the.

Krystal Ball (46:47)

Yeah, that's right.

Saagar Enjeti (46:48)

Unfortunately, that really was the impetus, it appears, behind some of these killings. That's what Ryan was emphasizing.

Krystal Ball (46:53)

That's why they murdered that whole Al Jazeera crew, because they were planning to stay and cover the invasion. Re. Invasion of Gaza City. And now they can't because they're dead.

Saagar Enjeti (47:01)

Yeah. And you know, in continuing with the expansion on this, the settlement question, it is, by the way, we're gonna have a very interesting interview hopefully soon. But there was a man who was a top press officer at the State Department who was just fired because he wanted to release a statement from the United States expressing condolences about the loss of life for journalists in Gaza. And he was fired for that. Now keep in mind, not only was he fired just for that, but also because he pushed back and said that the United States State Department should not refer to the west bank and Gaza as Judea and Samaria. And it appears that he was knifed by Mike Huckabee's most senior aide, David Milse. And so, yeah, hopefully we're gonna have an interview with this gentleman soon. But I just want people to see too about like that settlement question and about the adoption of their own language and rhetoric here in our government is now basically open for, you know, it's open for business.

Krystal Ball (47:59)

That's right.

Saagar Enjeti (48:00)

Has been, I know from a policy level. But look, this stuff still does matter. How the US government refers to the west bank as Judea, you know, and west bank against Judea and Samaria are not. That stuff matters. Yes, the ambassador says it, but when Maine state and the Secretary of State says stuff like that, that's a declaration of policy at a government level.

Krystal Ball (48:16)

Yeah, that's right. And it seems like Milstein has been an important massive force behind the scenes and he shouldn't be. He's just like, you know, an aide to the ambassador to Israel.

Saagar Enjeti (48:26)

Right.

Krystal Ball (48:27)

But he is really taking control of a lot of the Israel policy and he is extremely hard line. And you know, to your point about like, yes, the U.S. obviously under bipartisan presidents has always been very pro Israel. No one is denying that. But there used to be, you know, the official line was that we support a two state solution and we are opposed to the illegal settlements. That's all out the window at this point. You know, they don't even pretend. There's not even a pretense. And in fact, Ambassador Mike Huckabee went on Israel's army radio drop site, picked this up and said that, you know, this new settlement plan, which is incredibly significant, it's called E1. It's east of Jerusalem. The UN has long said for years that moving forward with construction of this particular settlement would quote, drive a stake through the heart of a two state solution. Because the way that it severs Palestinian communities in the West Bank. In any case, Mike Huckabee went on Israel's army radio and said that Washington does not oppose that plan. Let's go ahead and Take a listen to a little of that.

Saagar Enjeti (49:31)

It is not a violation of law for Israelis to live in the land. And to say that they can't would be rather bizarre to say that anyone else could live in regions but Israelis could not. Whether or not there should be a massive development in E1 is a decision for the government of Israel to make. And so we would not try to evaluate the good or the bad of that.

Krystal Ball (50:02)

So there you go, they're on board with it, no problem. I mean this is, you know, Miriam Adelson presumably getting her money's worth from her massive investment the minute that Huckabee was put in as ambassador. I mean he is a religious zealot when it comes to Israel. We knew that was an extraordinary significant development. And our friend Jasper talks about how the annexation of the west bank, which was Miriam Adelson's main priority with her investment in Trump, with her campaign contribution to Trump, that was her main goal and it is effectively accomplished. So this is what she got for her money, effectively.

Saagar Enjeti (50:35)

No, you're right. And those settlements are the ones that we've covered here extensively because they're the ones that historically were never pursued by any even right wing Israeli government because it would block the establishment of a Palestinian state. So that's what the symbolism of this is. And of course it was approved by one of those cabinet members inside of Bibi. So just so everybody understands that. Yeah, let's go put the next one up on the screen. Just about State Department. This one is important. So they say that the U.S. state Department will now further number number of sanctions in response to the ICC's quote, ongoing threat to Americans and Israelis. So what they say is they are designating several members of the icc. Now why? It's because, quote, these individuals are foreign persons who are directly engaged in efforts to investigate, arrest, detain or prosecute nationals of the United States or Israel without the consent of their either nation. Now let's make it very clear. It's about investigation, arrest, arrested attention of Israeli officials. It has nothing to do with American officials. And to the extent that it does, it's about support for Israel. Just so we're all very clear. And of course this decision has been hailed by the Israeli cabinet members and others, even some ex cabinet members who ironically are not right wing enough for Bibi, but still, you know, whatever, under arrest warrant by the icc. And it's, I mean look, it's a classic case, the full force of the US Empire being used to protect the Israeli government. You can't make this shit up. It's like an anti Semitic conspiracy.

Krystal Ball (52:05)

Yeah, no, truly. And let's jump forward to be eight because I know Sager really enjoys this, this particular element and dynamic. You've got 225 new immigrants from the US and Canada landing in Israel here, you know, going to. They won't renounce their U.S. citizenship, but they will become dual Israeli citizens here.

Saagar Enjeti (52:25)

So you love this. Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. Of course. Very patriotic Americans who have made aliyah. More than 1,000 immigrants, quote, have arrived from North America according to the Ministry of Aliyah and quote, integration in Israel. Keep in mind that many of these people end up becoming the most psychotic and settler regime, like settlers who end up occupying some of the areas inside of the West Bank. There's that famous video of that guy from Brooklyn berating a Palestinian woman. And he's like, if I don't steal your house, then somebody else will steal it. You know, I mean, it's something I actually noticed when I visited the Western Wall. And you know, before you get there, there's these people who greet you. And I was talking to them and he's like, where are you from? And I was like, oh, I'm from, you know, Texas or whatever. He's like, oh, I'm from Boston. I was like, oh, okay. I was like, got it. I was like, do you live here? He's like, yeah, I live here. I was like, oh, all right. Well, you know, got it. So this is a comment that he was an Orthodox Jew. So there you go.

Krystal Ball (53:18)

Yeah, I told you it was crazy to me. I looked it up. My kid's dad is Jewish. And. And typically it passes through. It's supposed to be the mom that's Jewish, but in some Reform Judaism then it can be either. And sure enough, yeah, they could move there. They could become Israeli citizens. Palestinians aren't allowed to have rights there, but my kids who have no connection to it, I mean, it's just utterly insanely preposterous. One more piece that I just found interesting that I wanted to flag for everybody. This again is drop site B7. Let's put this in up on the screen. Apparently this Palestinian businessman, Samir Hulaylah Ushe's claiming the US approached him to be the governor of Gaza. They describe him as a little known Ramallah based businessman and economist who's taken on various roles in the Palestinian Authority and as a cabinet secretary to the PA for several months in late 2005 and 2006. Anyway, he is alleging that he was approached about being sort of installed as a governor of Gaza. So I guess they have been doing some reach outs to find their Chalabi.

Saagar Enjeti (54:31)

He looks just like him, right?

Krystal Ball (54:32)

And he also, he spent some money on like a lobbyist here in D.C. because you know, it doesn't matter what the Palestinian people want. It matters who you can convince here in this town, apparently, of course, to rule the Gaza Strip.

Saagar Enjeti (54:43)

This is classic. If you've ever spent enough time in Washington, the suit with the quarter zip is a dead giveaway. All right? That means something is, something is not right here. It usually means somebody with too much money and bad taste, which is of course exactly who's. Well, terrible combination here.

Krystal Ball (54:59)

Just look at the White House. Terrible combination.

Saagar Enjeti (55:01)

It's not a good combo usually. And so yeah, we have our Ahmed Chalabi for what the future may hold. We'll see.

Today Show Announcer (55:11)

The reviews and ratings are in and Ice Cube's Big three is the surprise hit of the summer. And to cap off the season, iHeart presents the Big Three basketball playoffs this Sunday at 3pm Eastern. The remaining four teams battle it out for the right to make the Big three championship in the most physical, fierce and competitive basketball league in the world. The action starts with the Big 3 Monster Energy Celebrity Game where your favorite stars compete in Big 33 on 3 basketball. Then the first of two semifinal games features Dwight Howard and the LA Riot taking on Montrez Harrell and Dr. J's first place Chicago Triplets. The finale will see popular Miami 305 with stars MVP Michael Beasley. And last will make you Dan Stevenson take on Nancy Lieberman's Dallas power who finished the season winning five straight weeks to capture second place. Can Glenn Rice, Greg Monroe and Paul Millsap stop Miami's physical assault or will Miami and Beasley put an end to Dallas's winning ways? Who will make it to the Big Three championship? This no holds barred action starts Sunday at 3pm Eastern, 12 Pacific only on.

Krystal Ball (56:10)

CBS this Labor Day.

Podcast Advertiser/Announcer (56:13)

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Krystal Ball (57:12)

Good morning. Welcome to today.

Today Show Announcer (57:13)

From back to school to tackling your to do list, the Today show is your best start to the day. It's a new season and every morning we're here to help you take it all along. As the forecast calls for football all across the country, blockbuster stars, live concerts, and so much more. Wake up to where it's all happening.

Krystal Ball (57:32)

We're getting back to all of it and the best way to start is together.

Today Show Announcer (57:36)

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Krystal Ball (57:42)

All right, let's go ahead and get to what's going on here in D.C. so Tim Dillon has some thoughts about what's going on here in D.C. and around the country. Let's go ahead and take a listen.

Saagar Enjeti (57:51)

They've already got the cops on the street that are, I mean, that are not cops, that are the military. They've already got the National Guard on the street. They already have all your information, D.C. and now they just get to decide what is and isn't over the line. That should scare everybody. You're fucking nuts, dude. If this doesn't scare you, you're nuts. All of these things in Alex Jones, you know, and I've had Alex on, I like Alex, but all these things that Alex Jones was like worried about when I listened to him, him in the late 90s, early 2000s are coming to fruition. And he, you know, I don't know where he is on all of that stuff, but like, I know he's a big fan of Trump, but like, this is everything Alex Jones always talked about, military in the street, the FEMA camp, the, the tech company that monitors everything, the surveillance. This is all of that. I mean, not to sound like a fucking nut, this is everything. A crackhead, and I don't even mean a crackhead like crack, but a guy smoking weed in a room with a fucking black light, he'd be like, bro, bro, there's gonna be military in the street. They're gonna put you in jail for fucking your fucking thoughts, man. If you just say them, bro, you're gonna Be in fucking jail. There's gonna be a fucking company that monitors everything you do, bro. Like, this is literally the wet dream of every conspiracy theorist that has ever lived. And it's happening now.

Krystal Ball (59:24)

Making a lot of good points there. I mean, the Alex Jones call in in particular. It is so true that all of, like, sort of the wildest theorizing about what a government crackdown could look like, like, a lot of it is unfolding before us. You know, you have the kidnapping of people for wrong thought. Wrong. Think on Israel and the, you know, the crackdown there was. We're going to cover the fact that they're gonna. And now screen everybody's social media before they come in the country for, quote, unquote, anti Semitism, using the Department of Education and HHS to make sure you're cracking down on that as well. The National Guard. Six different states, National Guards here in D.C. to, like, we actually put C4 up on the screen. You had an MRAP that T boned a civilian regular vehicle here in dc. It's something similar that happened in la, by the way, where you had. I think it was ICE agents in a regular vehicle that T boned somebody as they were speeding around the city. Just absolutely dystopian. Then you add in the Palantir contract and what all of that is gonna look like, the deportations with no due process in a slave labor camp. And, I mean, Alex Jones has expressed concerns about a few things, but you can imagine if this was being done by a Democrat, it would be complete hair on fire. Because it really is a lot of the conspiracy theorizing, worst case scenario over the years, just sort of playing out in front of us in real time.

Saagar Enjeti (60:45)

I think it's fair. And yeah. I mean, it pains me to say it, but I do think it is fair. And one of it is especially because if I think back to January 6th and the federal occupation of our city, which I thought was ridiculous.

Krystal Ball (60:56)

Yeah.

Saagar Enjeti (60:56)

We both cost hundreds of millions of dollars. And, you know, it's very hard because on the one hand, I cannot stand people talking about how, oh, D.C. is safe and it's great. No, sorry, ridiculous. Like, the violent crime is still bad. Yes, it's down. It's still much higher than it was five years ago. Union Station is a shithole. It has been a shithole for five years. I've lived here since 2010, which, by the way, in retrospect, was the best year to ever live here. It's the lowest of the violent crime rate has ever been by 2014. It's gone downhill. There's a lot of reasons for that, that the crime situation is bad. I used to live. I lived on the block, literally, where Big Balls was assaulted or whatever. Somebody was murdered, shot in the head, innocent bystander. Exactly one block away. The restaurant I took my parents to was the subject of a gunfight less than three days later where somebody was shot and almost killed. Bullet holes that were sprayed in the way. So I'm not exaggerating. It's bad and it's been bad. There are different ways to fix it, and this is generally not the competent way. And I think that's kind of been my, if you were to say my break with the Trump administration. It's that they have, in many cases, I think, points about illegal immigration, about crime in D.C. but what they choose is the showmanship versus the execution. And that's actually bad for two reasons, and I'll explain, which is it negatively polarizes the entire country about the point that you're actually trying to make. And the point that you make doesn't even get fixed. So you kind of pair those two things together where, yeah, it's fun to do your little press conference at Union Station. And what you do is you troll the liberals into trying to say that actually Union Station is safe, when in reality, it's like, look, if you live here, we have two huge problems here in Washington, D.C. number one is juvenile offenders. Offenders and basically lack of prosecution. That has been a. That is a literal Biden policy that was adopted and led to widespread crime throughout the entire city. Carjackings, et cetera. That is an attorney general problem which is very easily solved. In fact, actually, and I'm curious, because this is where the Libertarian. Everything aligns. Jeanine Pirro, Is that her name? Jeanine Piro? Yeah. Judge Jeanine just announced yesterday that D.C. will no longer pursue firearms charges against people in the city. And I'm like, well, the libertarian in me, who's like, yeah, good. But the other hand is like, if we're all being honest, gun charge is the easiest way to get most of these people off the streets.

Krystal Ball (63:30)

Well, that's what the black 2A advocates often say is that gun charges are the way. That's how the criminal justice system is. That's the entry point.

Saagar Enjeti (63:42)

Yes. It's the easiest way to get somebody locked up.

Krystal Ball (63:44)

Yeah. A bunch of people. Disproportionately black people. And I mean, I do think part of. So zooming out from D.C. this country has much higher rates of violent crime in cities across the country than similarly situated like developed nations around the world.

Saagar Enjeti (64:00)

No question, no question.

Krystal Ball (64:01)

No doubt about it. I think if you look at the differences between those countries, one of the things is we are awash in guns. That is a big part of the. That is not something that Republicans want to do anything about whatsoever. And like you said, Pirro is going in the opposite direction. Direction here in D.C. in terms of actually cracking down on the firearms here. D.C. comparatively has relatively tight firearm restrictions, but obviously it's a city with Virginia on the other side. In Virginia, you can get any gun you want, basically anytime with very few restrictions.

Saagar Enjeti (64:29)

But this is the. DC has the strictest gun laws in the entire country.

Krystal Ball (64:32)

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Virginia's right there. And so it makes it.

Saagar Enjeti (64:37)

Yeah, but Maryland has some of the strict. Maryland has same standard as California. So it's.

Krystal Ball (64:41)

The country as a whole is awash in firearms. And that is certainly. Now it may not be all of it. I think the mass inequality, the fact that you have this entrenched underclass, very little social safety net. I think that is part of it as well. I'm not saying that it's one thing, but that's part of the conversation. But some of. To me, the most interesting reporting that's been going on, Sarah, and I think you would share this sentiment, is the journalists who actually went into Anacostia across the river, the neighborhoods that suffered the most, most from violent crime, truly, and talk to residents there, and we're like, how do you feel about this? And there is an openness.

Saagar Enjeti (65:16)

No, they're like lawns. They're like, listen, we're open to it. Yeah, that's true. It's on the right.

Krystal Ball (65:21)

I mean, they're like, we would like to see more lawn. We would love it if this would help. But there is zero. I mean, first of all, there's very little presence there at all. This has all been MRAPs on the mall and outside of Union Station and protecting Georgetown cupcakes or whatever. Which is not to say there's zero crime in those places, but much less than in other parts of the city. So that's number one. But number two, if they were serious about wanting to get the. I mean, you just can't take them seriously. This is the same government that stripped a billion dollars in funding from the DC Budget that is supposed to go to things like public safety. So lo and behold, we can put C5 up on the screen. They did a poll of D.C. residents, the people that this is supposedly meant to have and 8 in 10 are like, no, of course we don't want this. 8 in 10 Washingtonians oppose Trump taking control of DC's police and federal troops patrolling streets. You have the question specifically is, do you support or oppose Trump ordering the federal government to take control of DC, DC's police department and ordering the National Guard and FBI to patrol DC? 9% strongly support, 8% somewhat support. And then you have 79% who either strongly oppose. And by the way, the strongly opposed is 69%. So nearly 70% of the city is like, absolutely not. And again, those are the people that they're posturing like they want to help and everyone can just see through it. And Sagar, the thing that I've struggled with in sort of like communicating about this administration or even intellectualizing this administration and really trying to, like, grapple with it in a way that's not hyperbolic or hysterical is on the one hand, you have these preposterously authoritarian shows of force that are just meant to demonstrate, like, you know, military crackdown. And on the other hand, they're so, like, incompetent and buffoonish. And so it's hard to take seriously the authoritarian nature of what's being done when you call in national guard from six surrounding states and MRAPs in the streets and all this crap. It's hard to take seriously that when on the other hand, they're like a bunch of idiotic, incompetent, trolling clowns.

Saagar Enjeti (67:34)

I would say that is the critique that I am the most sympathetic to. And again, I think is also the one which is going to land the best, because it's about the both. It's very. Again, it's hard because I literally moved out here because of crime and I know a lot of other people who did. It's bad. And it's like, I can't sit and be gaslit by people who are telling me that it's not good. It's horrible. And I've lived here for so long that I actually watched the decline. It's quality of life, life crime and the general feeling of safety. And sorry, yes, that's an actual feeling of safety, which entails vagrancy and general. Just like having to worry about getting stabbed by somebody mentally ill on the street is a real thing. Same in Union Station. You watched it go from a place of business people to bum showers in the span of two to three years, and it really still has not really returned to how it used to be. Now, there's a lot of reasons for that Covid and all that one. But this is where I get frustrated, you know, with the Washington D.C. residents. They don't actually want to do anything about it. That's part of the other problem there, you know, D.C. city. The mayor may be pro cop. The city council shoots down every single attempt to try and hire more MPD officers. The juvenile problem is the one that the city council members themselves are the ones who are fighting for more leniency, which is leading to all this truancy crisis. And by the way, this city spends more than every other country public school per capita than any place in the country. And they have the highest truancy rate. Some 30, 30% of D.C. students are truant. Something that Delano Squire said on our show, which I look uncomfortable, but people always want to whitewash it. Like if you have a school district where 90% truant, that's apparent problem. It's true.

Krystal Ball (69:14)

And people need to.

Saagar Enjeti (69:16)

No, no, no. We have to get real. You are. 90% of you are.

Krystal Ball (69:20)

What he said. But I actually thought what he said was so silly though, because he was like. His answer was like the mayor should say parents should do a better job. And it's like, what the fuck is that gonna happen?

Saagar Enjeti (69:30)

No, hold them accountable.

Krystal Ball (69:31)

That's actually a more pathetic answer than like what Lex supposedly do.

Saagar Enjeti (69:34)

Hold them accountable. It's the same way if Your kid is 15 and they use your AR15 to go and shoot up a school. You need to be prosecuted for that. I'm being serious.

Krystal Ball (69:42)

I agree with that. But his thing was just like, you know, wag your finger at them. Like that's not gonna do it.

Saagar Enjeti (69:46)

It's not just they need to go to jail. Like if your kid is out there carjacking and. And you have been had multiple warnings from the school district and all of that. I'm sorry, you need to be held accountable. And the truth is, is that they have embraced all of these BLM Ferguson, like anti crime policy or anti police policies since 2014. Not an accident. That's the year that the city went to shit.

Krystal Ball (70:07)

But you do have to also acknowledge the crime rate has gone down. It has gone down from the height of 2020.

Saagar Enjeti (70:13)

It's still way higher than 2010.

Krystal Ball (70:15)

I'm not an expert on D.C. politics, so I don't know what the city council has or hasn't done or whatever.

Saagar Enjeti (70:20)

They block every pro policeman the mayor tries.

Krystal Ball (70:23)

Especially in neighborhoods that suffer more from violence. Residents are open to more law enforcement presence. I don't think there's any doubt about that, and in fact, you know, it tends to be poor, blacker neighborhoods where. And those two things, obviously, unfortunately, in America frequently go together where there is more receptivity to law enforcement presence. So I don't think when you look at the poll, that's like 80% are opposed to Trump. I don't think that's like, oh, we just don't want more law enforcement. No, they see this foolishness that it is.

Saagar Enjeti (70:51)

A lot of it is also negative. That's certainly 90% of the city.

Krystal Ball (70:55)

But they're right to see this as being ridiculous. And not to mention, if you care about law and order. Look, it goes without saying that this is the guy that pardoned all the January 6th rioters, were beating up cops and whatever. Look, I'm with you, and it's a fair point. It's a fair point to make, especially because that happened in D.C. but in addition, you don't just have the National Guard, you also have all these FBI agencies, agents who are being pulled off. Like, aren't they supposed to be doing real work, not just standing around? I watch a video yesterday of some. I don't know what agency they're with because it's hard to tell. In many instances, people just riding up and down the escalator at a Metro station.

Saagar Enjeti (71:35)

Yeah, I know.

Krystal Ball (71:35)

Or picture people like these guys just, like, bored, standing around in an empty Metro station.

Saagar Enjeti (71:40)

That actually was my old Metro station. Safest one in the entire city.

Krystal Ball (71:43)

I mean, there you go. Thank you. There you go.

Saagar Enjeti (71:45)

For protecting my fellow drunken GW students. I'm sure that they need to. Look, I agree, it is buffoonish. And the way that they execute it is preposterous. It's just about. But the problem has to be acknowledged. And like, that is the part where I can't move away from the city and its residents basically seem to be okay with crime. I will never understand it. It's why I left. I said, this place cannot be saved. Its own population basically is wedded to BLM signs over people not getting murdered. I don't know what it is. It's the sick psychology of the people who live here. But the thing is. And that's why exit was the only actual option.

Krystal Ball (72:19)

Not. It's not, like, outstanding nationally in terms of the rate of violent crime. Well, there are, you know, in fact, red states. A number of red states have higher crime rates than blue states. The. I think It's Memphis and St. Louis that have the worst violent crime rates in the country. And while I'm sure individual policy Decisions do make somewhat of a difference. You can also see that a lot of this is national trends. There was a huge national spike in in crime in Covid and coming out of COVID and there's been a similar national decline in crime.

Saagar Enjeti (72:54)

What happened in 2020 though, it wasn't.

Krystal Ball (72:56)

Just cities across the country, it was also blm.

Saagar Enjeti (72:58)

See this, There is a total obfuscation of the role that BLM played in the massive spike on crime. The Ferguson effect is statistically proven, it's real. Is that these BLM style events Trayvon Martin Ferguson led to the Ferguson effect, the cooling of crime enforcement same back in 2020 which led to an explosion in violent crime.

Krystal Ball (73:16)

The problem of crime enforcement is mostly cops like not doing their job as much.

Saagar Enjeti (73:20)

Okay. Yes, because they're afraid. Now listen, look, I'm not some pro police fanatic. My response when the police pull up is lawyer. I don't have a fucking thing to say to you and that should be yours too. Don't ever talk to them without a lawyer present. Zero. Even if it's a speeding ticket. Don't acknowledge nothing, just say lawyer, lawyer, lawyer. You don't have to say a word. Even if you pull out your id, same thing, you can lawfully comply. You don't have to say anything. It can and will be used against you in a court of law. Look out for your own rights. I wanna make that very clear. But it is also empirically clear that a systematic level lack of crime enforcement and specifically soft on crime do gooder policies like oh, these poor little juveniles has led to an explosion of carjackings here in Washington. It's a Washingtonian problem and it's specifically because of the federal government. Joe Biden and a bunch of like BLM style leftists said oh, we can't prosecute these poor kids and they wreaked havoc across the street.

Krystal Ball (74:12)

City everybody I know it can be a Washington specific. I'm generally. I don't think it's a Washington specific problem. When you see a similar dynamic happening in cities across the country. Regardless, regardless of what they're.

Saagar Enjeti (74:23)

We have to disaggregate violent crime from quality of life crime. Carjacking is included in violent crime, but vagrancy is not. So San Francisco is a shithole. Can we all agree on that? At least major parts of it, the tenderloin, et cetera. San Francisco has a very low murder rate. They don't have a big murder problem. They have a high violent crime rate. But it is in my opinion the most unpleasant city in the United States to be in. Why? Because of violent mentally ill drug addicts everywhere who are constantly harassing you. They may not kill you. But look, we can't just sit here and say it's acceptable. I mean, I recently had dinner in Washington in a place which I admit.

Krystal Ball (75:00)

Even those stats are down in California.

Saagar Enjeti (75:02)

But again, you're talking about violent crime.

Krystal Ball (75:04)

No, I'm talking about homelessness too. Like public, visible homelessness.

Saagar Enjeti (75:08)

Yeah, and part of that is across.

Krystal Ball (75:10)

The country as well.

Saagar Enjeti (75:11)

Part of that is the Repeal of the 9th Circuit in California, which basically allowed the California authorities to go and clean up some of the areas. It's not just local. This again is soft on crime policy, which led to a massive explosion of the permissibility of fentanyl addicts being on every corner.

Krystal Ball (75:26)

But I'll give you a I just.

Saagar Enjeti (75:27)

Can'T live in a country where they.

Krystal Ball (75:28)

Can'T exactly counter example. So Baltimore is on track for. And Baltimore has historically been one of, in the modern era, one of the worst cities in the country in terms of, of specifically murders and violent crime. And I mean, you know, the Wire we all watched like, and it's unfortunately too close to or was too close to reality in Baltimore. And they are on track to have their lowest murder rate in documented history. And it wasn't just we're gonna flood the zone with cops. It was a range of approaches, including, you know, more after school activities and those sorts of things that might be stereotyped as soft on crime. So, you know, there was a, a model there that has been very successful that I think needs to be looked at as well. But I do also think like, you know, the national crime rate is much higher than other similar countries. And I think a good part of that has to do with guns. I think a good part of that has to do with inequality and socioeconomics. A good part of that has to be lack of social safety net. Good part of that has to do with upper lack of upward mobility. And then, you know, you have had these national trends. So again, I'm not telling, I'm not an expert on D.C. politics. I don't know what's been done here specifically. I'm not doubting there aren't factors that have contributed to some of the specific dynamics here. But it seems like overall the more important dynamics have been like national, global trends which have led to all of these cities moving in similar directions.

Saagar Enjeti (76:49)

See, I would agree, but my point is that the national trend is blm. And like, that was the singular moment, most important thing in the History of crime.

Krystal Ball (76:56)

But how do you disaggregate that from COVID Well, look, I mean that's part of. Because the truancy rate, that to me is directly a change of COVID But.

Saagar Enjeti (77:06)

Those are two conjoined factors because it's not just truancy, it's the lack of enforcement and the do gooder, oh, we shouldn't do anything about these poor children. And that's the, it's like that's the.

Krystal Ball (77:17)

Toxic empathy everywhere in the country.

Saagar Enjeti (77:18)

Yeah, absolutely. But D.C. is an outlier that's not.

Krystal Ball (77:22)

Out of COVID Truancy rate is up across the country because it just became like it used to be you go to school every day and then, you know, the message that was sent was basically like, well, it's kind of optional. And actually we're doing this. I will point home. And schools across the country have been struggling with that.

Saagar Enjeti (77:38)

Conservatives will be mad at me for saying this. We should take a lot of lessons from New York City. It is by far the safest, cleanest and the most livable of the big cities in terms of quality of life. There's a lot of reasons for that. One is they don't tolerate this. San Francisco, Los Angeles, drug addiction. The vast, vast majority of people who are homeless are drug addicts. It is not a housing issue. That's one of those that I've probably switched on the most. In particular watching it here in Washington. I watched it go from methamphetamine and like drunkenness to fentanyl. Fentanyl has wrecked this place. The fentanyl lean and what, you know, just look, anybody who doesn't know what I'm talking about, you can Google it. It's horrific. If you've ever been to skid row San Francisco, it is entirely a fentanyl crisis which has taken over these places which leads to massive amounts of petty crime, massive quality of life problems, carjacking or car break ins, breaking into cities. I mean this stuff has like massive cooling effects on commerce, on the ability of people to have children. My own sister lived in San Francisco. I stayed in her apartment. I go out the door, this is a nice neighborhood. And there's a guy literally taking a shit on a stoop at 4am in the morning with a needle in his arm. I'm not joking. Like this is real stuff and this is the stuff that happens every single day. That is an enforcement problem, like clear and simple. New York does not tolerate that. Even with all of their Democratic mayor, etc.

Krystal Ball (79:03)

New York also has a Requirement, legal requirement to provide housing for everyone, but.

Saagar Enjeti (79:10)

They don't accept drug addicts.

Krystal Ball (79:12)

That's an important part as well.

Saagar Enjeti (79:14)

Major crackdown on home. Like people, you cannot walk your way out of this with right to housing. If you give, quote, right to housing to drug addicts, they'll rip it apart and they'll use it as a drug den.

Krystal Ball (79:24)

I hate talking about. But the other thing is that there's just not nearly sufficient rehab programs for people to go into. And I actually. Maybe we'll agree on this. Like when Eric Adams shifted the criteria for the ability to deem someone, like, a threat to themselves or to others and to be able to put them into an institution, like institutionalize them and get treatment. I actually support things like that because I do think that, first and foremost, I care about those human beings who are unhoused, who are struggling with addiction, who are clearly living really a miserable existence. And I do think sometimes they're in an effort to be empathetic and not to have. Often the right just wants to criminalize or invisibilize or push out or whatever. And so in an attempt to push back on that, there's actually a lack of empathy for what that person is going through and the type of help that they need. And so I think I am in favor of more ability to get people help even when it is against their will. I know that's a controversial thing to say, but I think if you truly have compassion for people, you wouldn't want someone that's your family member to be living in that state. And so in any case, this has gone kind of far afield. But. But it is about the show, because.

Saagar Enjeti (80:52)

It is about the show. But remember, you know, the Trump MAGA and all the support for this type of stuff, and the reason why a lot of people even went along with it, you know, maybe unpopular here. I need to see a nationwide polling. And yes, I'm not saying they've actually.

Krystal Ball (81:04)

It'S unpopular nationally, too.

Saagar Enjeti (81:06)

It may be in terms of the. But like, people in 2024, they were pretty fed up with a lot of this stuff. And I think I will never walk away from that. Is a good impetus. And even, like, what you were just talking about, the rehab and the confinement. The most important shift that the left needs to make is to going from toxic empathy to paternalism. And yeah, you're gonna hate me for saying it, but the countries you all revere, like Portugal, your ass is going to jail if you sit on a public street corner and you shut up, shoot up heroin, mandatory rehab or jail, we need to shift to that mentality. If you are in skid row and there's a needle in your arm and you're raping women, trying to basically so that you can give them fentanyl, you are going to jail. Those fentanyl addicts who have been reduced to that horrific state, you're getting locked up for two years in a mandatory rehab, not some 90 day program. Two years. If you look at the recidivism rate on heroin and fentanyl, it's already sky high. There needs to be a basic social contract agreement for all of us where it's like, you have a problem, that problem is solvable, but it is one where we need to take away a lot of agency from you. And I'm sorry. And that is a huge problem because it conflicts with a lot of the current legal system. But this current, current system does not work and it has destroyed them and it has destroyed tax paying citizens, businesses and others who deserve the right to live in a safe place. So that would be my main thing. You have to embrace the uncomfort of telling someone we are going to deprive you of your rights for quite a long time, always for your own good.

Krystal Ball (82:44)

It actually dovetails somewhat with the anti eugenics monologue.

Saagar Enjeti (82:47)

Okay, good.

Krystal Ball (82:48)

Because there was, you know, this progressive era push to institutionalize anybody and everybody who like, you know, were seen as basically based on poverty, you know, and sometimes it would be genuine mental illness or whatever, but there was this mass push towards institutional, institutionalizing people. And then there was a backlash against that because it went way too far and you were just completely depriving people of rights. And again, it would be someone who just was, you know, their crime was being poor and they locked up, up for life and sterilized by the way. And you know, now you're at the point where, number one, I mean, our healthcare system is shit. There's not nearly enough rehab available. Like even people who wanna get clean and sober, they don't have a place where they can go to try to avail themselves of those services. There are way too few psychiatric beds, there are way too few rehab beds, all of those sorts of things. But I do think we've also gone too far in the other direction of, you know, sometimes it genuinely is in, in a person's interest and you have to have protections in there for civil liberties, et cetera. It's a difficult balance to strike.

Saagar Enjeti (83:49)

It's very hard.

Krystal Ball (83:49)

In any case, what Trump is doing is total and complete bullshit. He doesn't care about crime. It's like mraps T boning cars in the streets. Way to go. Congratulations. And I think not just D.C. residents but the polling I've seen is like the country sees through it. And you're right that just like with the immigration backlash, there's also a backlash to this policy where people, I mean they saw what happened in LA too. Like most of what's happening here in terms of law enforcement is doordash. Drivers getting pulled off their mopeds is.

Saagar Enjeti (84:20)

Primarily a lot of them are illegal. So let's not put that aside. I have a crazy doordash story which I hope to tell one day. Fox 1 is now live.

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