8/22/25: BREAKING: FBI 8RAIDS John Bolton, Mayhem At Dem Townhall, Israel Admits 83% Civilian Deaths

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — Episode Summary

Date: August 22, 2025
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Emily Jashinsky, Ryan Grim
Main Theme:
A tumultuous week in US politics and global affairs, including the FBI’s dramatic raid on John Bolton, the legal and humanitarian chaos at the “Alligator Alcatraz” immigration facility in Florida, admissions by Israel regarding civilian deaths in Gaza, and the fractious state of Democratic politics—with a special focus on populism, money in politics, and party infighting.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. FBI Raids John Bolton’s Home – Political Weaponization or Accountability?

[02:24–09:53]

• Overview:
  The FBI conducted an early morning raid at former National Security Advisor John Bolton's homes and offices, connected to a years-long probe into alleged disclosure of national security secrets tied to his memoir, “The Room Where It Happened.”
• Key Insights:
  • The New York Post got an exclusive on the story, suggesting a government tip-off—paralleling past speculation about leaks during the Roger Stone raid ([03:21]).
  • Bolton hasn't been charged as of Friday and was not arrested ([03:34]).
  • The probe began under Trump in 2020 but was previously quashed by the Biden administration, possibly for political reasons ([04:35]).
  • The hosts debated the politicization of law enforcement, the precedent of raiding high-profile figures from opposing parties, and the absurdity of classified document investigations for ex-officials with varying declassification powers.
• Notable Quotes:
  • Ryan Grim: “I hate to see the FBI weaponized for political purposes … but John Bolton getting raided. Oh, boy. Hard to criticize that.” ([05:23])
  • Krystal Ball: “… these classified document investigations of presidents are insane and weaponized already. We’ve already crossed that Rubicon.” ([06:42])

---

2. Alligator Alcatraz: Environmental Ruin & Immigration Policy Failure

[09:53–18:34]

• Overview:
  Federal court orders Florida to dismantle the “Alligator Alcatraz” detention center—citing environmental destruction brought on Native American legal action and federal environmental laws.
• Key Insights:
  • The “Alligator Alcatraz” facility was leaking sewage and gasoline into sensitive wetlands; the judge ordered all infrastructure removed ([12:37]).
  • DeSantis remained defiant, vowing deportations will continue: “The deportations will continue until morale improves” ([11:33]).
  • Hosts described the facility as a disaster both logistically (expensive, hard to evacuate, resource-intensive) and morally.
  • Mass deportation using these camps is unscalable (would need 8,000 such camps at $600 million each to handle the current migrant influx).
  • Pew data cited a surprising 1.5 million immigrant population decline in the US from Jan–June, likely due to “self-deportation” driven by fear.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “It’s kind of sad that … the swampland creatures have more humanity than the people we’re throwing in there.” – Emily Jashinsky ([13:35])
  • Ryan Grim: “… you would need 8,000 of these concentration camps … It looks like what, 4 trillion [dollars]?” ([17:07])

---

3. The Labor Market, Immigration, And the Skilled Trades Shortage

[18:34–25:58]

• Overview:
  Conversation shifted to the economic impact: with rapid immigrant decline, skilled labor shortages intensify.
• Key Points:
  • Contractors are already seeing absenteeism and fear among immigrant workers ([20:44]).
  • Government “solutions” like expanding 529s for trade schools are considered unserious and don’t address generational shortfalls ([22:04]).
• Notable Quotes:
  • Ryan Grim: “…tinkering at the edges of 529s is not a remotely serious way to develop a generation of … carpenters and electricians …” ([22:09])

---

4. Democratic Party Infighting: Town Halls, AIPAC Money, & Socialist Candidates

[28:38–36:50]

A. Wesley Bell Town Hall Erupts Over Israel

[28:38–33:01]

• Bell, a Democrat who ousted Cori Bush, faces a hostile town hall dominated by Israel policy disputes. Security violently removed protestors.
• Bell is bankrolled by over $12 million in AIPAC money; Democrats are largely ignoring the optics of this outsized influence.
• Krystal Ball: “$12 million coming to prevent one vote and one voice on one issue that … is not a domestic issue.” ([32:43])

B. Party-Side Drama: Minnesota and the DFL

[33:10–38:15]

• Omar Fateh, Somali-American socialist, has his mayoral endorsement revoked, under suspicious “irregularities” in the party’s process—seen as the establishment overturning grassroots left-wing wins.
• Ryan Grim notes Minnesota’s convoluted caucus process and the state party’s desire to block the left, particularly when organizing is effective ([34:49]).
• Allegations of DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) fraud and FBI investigation are raised as part of broader intraparty dysfunction.

---

5. The Rise of Graham Platner: Populism vs Establishment in Maine

[38:31–53:17]

• Segment Summary:
  Viral campaign ad spotlight: Graham Platner, a Maine populist Democratic candidate (combat veteran, oysterman) runs against Susan Collins, shakes up stale party strategies.
• Key Points:
  • Platner is authentically anti-billionaire, anti-oligarchy, and targets the party establishment—contrasting the centrist, donor-driven path favored by the likes of Gavin Newsom.
  • Ryan Grim personally knows Platner, who is as working-class as he appears ([39:56–41:00]).
  • The establishment would prefer more “passive voice” messaging—Platner’s directness scares party elites ([43:04]).
• Notable Quotes:
  • Krystal Ball: “You have to be able to talk about the system being fundamentally broken … not in those vague terms … you need to say why.” ([43:21])
  • Ryan Grim: “The only difference between [Collins] and Ted Cruz is Ted Cruz is honest about how he's selling you out.” ([46:38])
  • Emily Jashinsky: “You walk into a room, people … either know you’re one of them or you’re not. The candidate you mentioned in Maine, Graham Platner, is.” ([49:17])

---

6. Meme Wars and Democratic Brand Crisis: The Gavin Newsom Experiment

[55:48–60:30]

• Overview:
  Democrats need “fighters,” but the party seems to value meme-savvy performativity (Gavin Newsom) over substantive populism.
• Key Insights:
  • Newsom’s “combative centrism” is all about building brand via red-meat tweets and viral stunts, not systemic change.
  • Hosts are skeptical Newsom could channel the populist enthusiasm that figures like Graham Platner generate, especially in real-world primaries.
• Notable Quotes:
  • Krystal Ball: “It’s working in a political sense, but I don't know that it’s working in a sort of deeper sense.” ([59:38])
  • Ryan Grim: “I don’t think you’re going to get Gavin Newsom talking about the millionaires and billionaires.” ([59:38])

---

7. Shocking Israel Admission: 83% of Gaza Deaths Are Civilians

[60:30–68:35]

• Segment Summary:
  Leaked Israeli military data (Guardian/972 expose) shows that at least 83% of Gaza’s war dead were civilians—a proportion nearly unprecedented in modern conflict.
• Key Insights:
  • The Israeli army’s definition of “combatant” is so broad as to include any male of “fighting age,” meaning true civilian fatalities may be undercounted.
  • Even with this distortion, the ratio is catastrophic (“genocidal levels of slaughter” – Ryan Grim [65:06]).
  • Official famine has now been declared in Gaza for over 500,000 people, with irreversible damage expected without immediate aid ([66:34]).
• Notable Quotes:
  • Emily Jashinsky: “Turns out the protesters were right. They’re killing basically everyone they can see.” ([65:48])
  • Ryan Grim: “They are counting every single remotely fighting age male as a combatant and still winding up at genocidal levels of slaughter.” ([64:17])

---

Memorable Moments & Quotable Highlights

• John Bolton Raid:
  “John Bolton … America’s sweetheart, finding himself the target of it.” – Krystal Ball ([06:42])
• Immigration Camps:
  “It’s like, you can expand Alligator Alcatraz … to all the different states. That’s not even putting a dent in what you need to do. What they wanted … was to make a point.” – Krystal Ball ([17:39])
• Populist Authenticity:
  “It’s the authenticity … you walk into a room … people know you’re one of them or you’re not. Graham Platner is.” – Emily Jashinsky ([49:17])
• Israel/Gaza Reporting:
  “For you and I, this is, you know, it to me it’s personal. Nobody’s standing up for civilian men. If we were in Gaza … we’d get listed as combatants just because we’re men.” – Ryan Grim ([65:06])

---

Episode Timeline (Important Segments)

• 02:24 – Bolton raid details; media leaks; weaponization debate
• 09:53 – Alligator Alcatraz court ruling; environmental and political fallout
• 18:34 – Labor, immigration, shortages in skilled trades
• 28:38 – Wesley Bell town hall, Israel debate, AIPAC influence
• 33:10 – Minnesota DFL drama, left vs. establishment
• 38:31 – Graham Platner and Maine’s anti-oligarchy populism
• 55:48 – Gavin Newsom’s meme-centric branding strategy
• 60:30 – Israeli admission on Gaza civilian deaths; famine confirmed

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Tone and Atmosphere

• Candid, sharply irreverent, and intensely skeptical of establishment narratives—whether Democratic, Republican, or international.
• Jokes and banter offset serious, often grim revelations on law enforcement overreach, humanitarian crises, and the hollowness of contemporary American politics.

---

Closing Remarks

For listeners, this episode captures a moment of extraordinary political turbulence—a time when lines between law enforcement and politics, domestic and international crisis, and authenticity vs. performance in politics are all growing blurrier. The hosts challenge tired establishment talking points, offer unsparing critiques of both parties, and illuminate through data and dark humor the challenges facing the US—and the world—in 2025.

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Ryan Grim]

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[Ryan Grim]

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[Krystal Ball]

Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Can find honest perspectives from the left.

[Krystal Ball]

And the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important.

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To you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become.

[Krystal Ball]

A member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every.

[Commercial Voice]

Morning in your inbox.

[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning everyone. How's everybody doing? Ryan and Emily in this very early am.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean it's earlier for you man.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, well, I mean it's the earliest for the FBI because the FBI is they're waking up. They're getting started and it inspired me to hop out of bed.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, they had their, they had their Wheaties nice and early and got to John bolton's house by 7am so we'll have details on that coming up.

[Emily Jashinsky]

That's right. You know what, we're also going to be talking a little bit about Israel. We're going to be looking at a Wesley Bell town hall and a ruling on Alligator Alcatraz as well as more in the fun second half answering AMA questions and getting to the stories that would get taken down if we put on the public YouTube. With that being said, let's, let's just get right into it. You know, it's an early morning. I thought I was waking up early, but it's actually the FBI that are rising and shining here. So the FBI raided John Bolton's home, which we've got video of right here. And it has happened early in the morning. What are we to make of this, Ryan and Emily?

[Ryan Grim]

The Post got the exclusive on this, which their New York Post is not in Bethesda. So somebody from the administration clearly tipped them off. What can we learn? What do we, what, what can we pull from, from the Post?

[Krystal Ball]

Right. Which by the way, I think it's worth noting that potential tip off is a, and has been for a long time a significant point that conservatives have used about the Roger Stone raid. And Roger Stone has already been posting, of course, but it appeared that CNN got a leak about that raid. Now, the New York Post says that Bolton has not been arrested and is not charged with any crimes as of Friday morning, according to an official, but comes after, quote, years of investigation into the potentially criminal release of information, despite Trump's first National Security Council assessing it as classified. So remember, John Bolton was Trump's nsa, his national security adviser. Now, the Post reports the related investigation began in 2020, according to this official, the same year Trump's first Justice Department launched a criminal inquiry into Bolton's alleged disclosure of national security secrets in his book the Room Where It Happened, which many people probably rem because it had a big splashy debut. He was all over most corporate media channels. And now John Bolton is under, I believe his, his office was raided yesterday as well. So the Biden administration, according to the Post, quashed this particular investigation for what the Trump administration appears to be telling the Post was political reasons. But that's what we're seeing happen right now at John Bolton's house in Bethesda. It looked like his office in D. And then you have Cash Patel posting. No one is above the law. And Dan Bongino talking about that as well, or posting cryptically about that as well. So kind of a wild morning in the Beltway.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And I'm deeply conflicted here because, you know, I hate to see the FBI weaponized, you know, for political purposes. I genuinely don't want the United States to become the kind of place where both parties are throwing each other's opponents in prison. Right. Like, I've, you know, having covered a lot of countries around the world, the countries that do that don't have the. Don't have functional politics. On the other hand, man, John Bolton getting raided. Oh, boy. Hard to criticize that. So, yeah, guess we'll just let them. Let them fight for now.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, that'll be. I mean, for people listening are probably immediately thinking, wasn't Donald Trump himself claiming that there's a weaponized investigation into his own. His own allegedly improper use of. Or improper.

[Ryan Grim]

Oh, yeah, let's storage. We should, of course, underscore how. How comical that is.

[Krystal Ball]

We'll see.

[Ryan Grim]

He had bathrooms full of classified information. He was showing the president. He's on. He's on tape saying no after he was present. Right, right, right, right.

[Krystal Ball]

But he was.

[Ryan Grim]

He's on tape saying, I can't show you this. I shouldn't even have this. This is classified. But here, let me show it to you.

[Krystal Ball]

It's like, yes, yes. Now, John Bolton, of course, obviously doesn't have any of the declassification or wouldn't have the declassification powers of a president. Now, Trump, this is what sort of rid. Ridiculous about the classified document investigations, whether into Biden or into Donald Trump, is that they could have. They can claim essentially that they waved a magic wand. And now we didn't really see that play out in court and declassify it. But, you know, obviously it was this. These classified document investigations of presidents are insane and weaponized already. We've already sort of crossed that Rubicon. And I, I would argue the Roger Stone raid was across Rubicon as well, or was part of crossing that Rubicon as well. Was above the Biden administration to do political theater like this. So here we have John Bolton, America's sweetheart, finding himself the target of it.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And, you know, at least with the Trump documents, he kept them in the bathroom so you could flush them in an emergency. Right. So that's actually the safest place to keep them. John Bolton's probably keeping them in like a safe, which is not safe at all. That's protected. You can't destroy them. Easily.

[Krystal Ball]

A lot of people get that wrong. Yep.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, but. But I mean, John Bolton has probably the last year or two been sky high because he's dream since he was a little boy to go to war with Iran. So it. It's been a lot of ups and downs for him. Uh, what do we got throwback here? Let's. Let's do it. Um, I can't hear it, Emily.

[Ryan Grim]

Me neither.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay. Okay, if you can't hear it. It's John Bolton talking openly about how he has done a few coups. He. He corrects Jake Tapper, who says, it's not easy. John Bolton says, well, listen, yeah, coups can be done.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Not impossible. Nothing's impossible if you set your heart and mind and soul to it.

[Ryan Grim]

He's run some failed coups, too, which he. Which he talked about. Yeah. Like in particular, in Venezuela. And now he's getting his policy, you know, played out by Marco Rubio.

[Krystal Ball]

And this is the exact quote, Tapper says, one doesn't have to be brilliant to attempt a coup. And Bolton responds, I disagree with that. As somebody who's helped plan coup d'. Not here, but other places. It takes a lot of work. So this gets to Ryan feeling personally conflicted about John Bolton, who comes out of the Cold War neoconservative strain of the right, and this question of extrajudicial conduct. When you're on television talking about how you've planned one or two coups, maybe it is time for a little comeuppance. Whether it's John Bolton or someone else, all ears. To hear what he. What laws he is alleged to have violated.

[Ryan Grim]

And it is nice that he's so familiar with carrying out coup d' etat that he would even use the, like, French plural pronunciation. You know, the French plural, accurately.

[Krystal Ball]

That's a good point.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. You gotta be pretty deep in the weeds to know that if you've done multiple coups, the plural would be coup d'. Etat.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Right? Yeah. It's like when a filmmaker used to do the. Yeah. Coups d'. Etat. Nice.

[Krystal Ball]

Attorney General.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Speaking of Secretary. Attorney General. In your world. Perfect. So, speaking of law and order, you know, we also have some breaking news here about everyone's favorite facility, Alligator Alcatraz. A federal judge is giving Florida 60 days to clear out the immigration detention facility called Alligator Alcatraz. The ruling forbids state officials from moving any other migrants there. Now, what are the reasons why this incredible functional, necessary facility has been shut down?

[Ryan Grim]

So the local tribe that lives there brought this case, saying that the. And the abundance crew. I wonder, I wonder if they will rush to the defense of Alligator Alcatraz because they brought environmental concerns. Right. So as you guys know, I was down there the week before it was opened and was there as the, as the trucks were going in on a minute by minute basis. And I am, I am not an environmental expert, but I could just tell you just from watching it that bringing in generators, all of the, you know, sewage facilities, all this construction material into a very small wetland area is going to be destructive to that wet wetland area. And so the specific ruling from this judge is that they have to remove all the gasoline, they have to remove the generators, and they have to move all the, all the sewage related stuff because clearly it is leaking sewage and gasoline constantly in, into the wetlands, which would destroy it for, you know, a generation or two. And so that is, that would, of course. Well, the Washington Post report says that would effectively shut the camp down. I suppose if they wanted to get, you know, extraordinarily medieval, they could say, okay, we're going to leave the people here and we just won't have any generators or sewage facility. And just this is the judge's fault. So she's also saying you can't bring anybody new. Now, Ron DeSantis responded by saying his comment was the deportations will continue until morale improves. So defiant in the face of the, this judicial order. So we'll see. I could say on the merits, it's quite obvious you can't build a giant generator powered sewage facility with thousands of people in the middle of the wetlands without destroying the wetlands.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, because of the wetlands.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. Yeah. The tribal. Not in my, not in my backyard, folks.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I'm part of the. Yes. In my swamp. Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

So, yeah, so what this came down to. So Friends of the Everglades, one of the groups that sued, but it, the, the question at hand was like the federal component of Alligator Alcatraz. So the judge said that federal immigration enforcement was, quote, the key driver of Alligator Alcatraz being built. And so because of that, it has to be subject to federal environmental laws and can't be subject to state environmental laws. So that was the sort of technical workaround. Well, not workaround, but that was sort of the, the, the technical obstacle. Yes.

[Ryan Grim]

Right, right. So we'll see. I mean, the law is clear on this. You can't do this. We'll see if the law matters at all.

[Emily Jashinsky]

It's also kind of sad that, like, we're not, it's not being like outlawed because it's like mean or Cruel. It's out being outlawed because of, like, the swampland. Creatures have more humanity than the people we're throwing in there. And also, just on the outside of the environmental, it sounds like very resource intensive to have like a gulag in the middle of nowhere. Like, I know it's like it's part of the. Part of the fantasy. It's like we're gonna throw them out into the middle of nowhere. It reminds me of how in la, there's always been these dreams by Rick Caruso to build, like, a homeless encampment, like, in the desert, just because it sounds cool to, like, throw everybody in the desert. But then it sounds like it's costing a lot more money. But I know, you know, we're seeing more and more of these alligator Alcatrazes pop up in other states that are not in swamp areas. And they all have, like, cute little names. Like, do you guys know any of the other names, though?

[Krystal Ball]

Nebraska, The Cornhusker Clink or something?

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, yeah. We at drop site, we obtained from a FEMA source the. The cost of this one. I believe it was $660 million for the first year. So you can do the math on the relatively small number of people that will be housed there. And it's just an incredible amount of money per person to house them in these utterly deplorable conditions, which also put them at risk, like these hurricanes that form in the Gulf. I mean, also the ones that form in the Caribbean, but the ones that form in the Gulf of whatever you want to call it, you know, they can hit the keys in a matter of days. And evacuating that many people would be effectively impossible in such a scenario. And so, yeah, it's a disaster waiting to happen and ongoing.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, big question of what happens to everybody who's there now. So the DeSantis administration, I think, to its discredit, has not allowed journalists access since they had cameras the first time when Trump toured with Kristi Noem. But since then, we haven't seen inside Alligator Alcatraz. We've heard reports through lawyers and such, but what happens to all of the people in there right now is a big, open question. And I just. My dissent from both of you, or my quick dissenting take from both of you, would be that we have a truly massive number of people who are going to need to be processed. I mean, if the Trump administration. Well, the Biden administration net, according to David Leonhart, the New York Times, about 8 million immigrants over the course of his four years as president. Not all of Them illegal by any means, some of them on asylum cases. But there are many, many people who then, you know, unless you do a path to citizenship, which is politically almost imposs. For the right to do, then have to be processed. And so there is a, I mean, a serious question of how to do that humanely in a way that's not dropping people in the swamp. So that's, I mean, I don't think there's a lot of concern on the right now for how to do that humanely. I don't think there's a lot of. Yeah, right.

[Ryan Grim]

But if you're, if they're, you know, if they're talking about addressing it seriously, this is also not a serious answer in the sense that if there are 8 million people and you can put a thousand of them at Alligator Alcatraz.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, totally.

[Ryan Grim]

You would need, I just did the calculator right here. You would need 8,000 of these concentration camps around the country running it all running at all times. If each one of them is $600 million. Let's see if people can check my math here. But that. This looks like what, 4 trillion.

[Krystal Ball]

So.

[Ryan Grim]

Wow.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And yeah, you're also going to run out of, you're going to run out of cute nicknames by like number 10 and then, and then you're just going to have to start using numbers.

[Krystal Ball]

I think they've already run out of cute nicknames. But that was so the, that was kind of the point that I was making is that, like, you can expand Alligator Alcatraz and it doesn't actually. You can expand it to all the different states. That's not actually even putting a dent in what you need to do. What they wanted it to do was make a point, which is why they wanted to use the Alcatraz name for the purposes of self deportation. And I do want to point out this other New York Times story. There was this really interesting release of Pew data that found between January and June, so just January and June of this year, the immigrant population in the United States, I think I can share it, declined by almost one and a half million, which will likely, of course, bolster the Trump administration's claims that self deportations are being fueled by some of these tactics. But. Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

What was that again? What Was that number?

[Krystal Ball]

1 and a half million from January to June. So in just have left. It's just a decline in the immigrant population. It's, it's Pew. So they're, they're surveying the population. They can't tell completely, but yes.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, yeah, that, that Tracks to me like, yeah, immigrant, immigrant communities, particularly like the social media in immigrant communities is, is non stop fear. It's non stop images of raids and windows being smashed and people being beaten on the ground. And, and so it, it, it would track to me that not only do you have very few people coming in, that people are just going to be leaving self deporting as, as Romney put it. Right.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah. And it just seems like everything's designed for social media, you know, whether it's like the, the D.C. people only, you know, taking National Guard photo shoots in front of like the Lincoln Memorial or you know, these sort of highlighted kind of brutal social media videos. But then when, to Emily's point, when it comes down to like the raw numbers of like what you'd have to do, that seems to be still a big question of how they do any of that in reality or if they're just going to rely on these sort of propaganda videos to kind of feed the hogs.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, it's the videos. And they are also doing CBP home, which offers like a thousand dollar travel stipend for people to, if we borrow Mitt Romney's verbiage self deport and they feel like they've had a good, they feel like that's been working for them. And I guess the Pew study would confirm that. But it's a combination of carrot and the stick, which is the financial incentive will make it easy, as they say, to, to help you book a flight and leave. Which also I think if you want to come back, you don't get penalized. So if you try to, to go through legal pathways in the future, if you use CBP home, you don't get penalized as part of that. And then also ratcheting up the imagery and talking about things like alligator Alcatraz as part of it. It's their characteristic program.

[Ryan Grim]

Meanwhile, real quickly, I was talking to a contractor here in D.C. yesterday who said two of his carpenters didn't show up for work yesterday. And you know, most contractors work with subcontractors and the subcontractors are the ones that are tasked with, you know, verifying immigration status. And that's where it's in the subcontractor level that a lot of this, where a lot of people without documents end up up, you know, getting work. And his point was, yo, you want me to hire a white or black carpenter who has legal paperwork here? I'm happy to show me one. Like what's, what's the plan here? This is a generational problem, like what's, what's your, what's your step two in this plan here? So you've successfully. You've successfully scared these people out from coming to work or leaving or into leaving the country. Was there a single penny? And build back better for trade schools, not build back better. Big beautiful bill.

[Krystal Ball]

Big beautiful bill.

[Ryan Grim]

You know, there might have been something. It certainly was not a priority. Certainly was not something that they said, you know, we're going to train a generation of Americans to do the kinds of jobs that we're telling them that they do, we want them to do.

[Krystal Ball]

It looks like they expanded 529s to include trade schools.

[Ryan Grim]

So, okay, so that's the most Kamala Harris thing ever. So you, so you can go to so529s. That's where you can get a tax break for put. For putting money away for your kid to go to school. So now they expand that trade school. Now if you open it in a disadvantaged neighborhood that has been, you know, know, majority white, so let's do DEI for, you know, white people. And, and it has. And it, and it insists on doing subsidized business with Israel for three years, then you can get this tax break towards trade school. That would be, I guess, the Republican version of the, of the Kamala Harris approach to, to education reform. So, yeah, so tinkering at the edges of 529s is not, not a remotely serious, like, way to develop a generation of, you know, carpenters and electricians and, and all the kinds of people that, that we are brutalizing and trying to drive out of the country. So I, I guess good luck to us.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I'm excited. I'm excited to see all the new buildings that pop up over the next couple years made by Fail Sun. College educated people who can't get a job at Quiznos. They're going to be putting up my house. I mean, I even know people here in LA that work in construction. My brother works on houses. And what a lot of places do. Not at my brother's sites, but I. At a lot of sites I hear is the guys have to now, like, either park their cars down the street or park their cars in the backs of the houses and they have to, like, tape up the windows to kind of. Of obscure her inside. Working on these homes.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, I talked to some workers that they used to meet on a corner because they were all going to the same place, and now they stay in their homes and they, you know, dash out once each get picked up, like, home by home.

[Krystal Ball]

This is A chart that shows the foreign born share of the workforce declining and the native born share of the workforce increasing. Now this is again like I want to be clear that all of this stuff is like loaded with. To the point that you were making Ryan. Consequences that are not even. There's basically nothing that you can. It's generational. It's not like a wave of magic wand and you increase the share of the domestic workforce and everyone's suddenly taking apprenticeships and everything's fine.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. And that's not. And it's only, it's only gen. And there was actually there were. There's tons of money for apprenticeships in build back better which I bet they rip that out. But it's only generational if you actually invest in it. If you don't then the next generation. We're not going to have like, we're not going to have the carpenters of electricians then either. Like people think that this stuff is just going to happen but yeah, we could also just go into rapid and, and long, long term decline as a country. Like that is also a thing. And let's see what we're choosing.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah but it's nice to have options on the table.

[Krystal Ball]

I will say anecdotally I have heard, I'm not a gig work apologist in any way whatsoever. I have though heard that was a problem for people. Native born people who are looking for, for gig work had actually a problem doing that in recent years and just anecdotally that seems to have changed here in D.C. in the two week experiment we've had with this federal takeover. So I don't. That's just gig work. That's not you know, skilled trades construction.

[Ryan Grim]

Like getting more like they're getting more ubereats deliveries and yeah, because that would, that might be. Yeah. But yes but that's the kind of thing that doesn't need right. Years of investment to learn how to.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Swing the hammer. Right.

[Krystal Ball]

For most people it's not their ideal work situation. It's not great. It's precarious. Yeah.

[IHeart Radio Announcer]

The reviews and ratings are in and Ice Cube's Big three is the surprise hit of the summer. And to cap off the season, I Heart presents the the Big Three basketball playoffs this Sunday at 3pm Eastern. The remaining four teams battle it out for the right to make the Big three championship in the most physical, fierce and competitive basketball league in the world. The action starts with the Big three Monster Energy celebrity game where your favorite stars compete in Big three three on three basketball. Then the first of two semifinal games features Dwight Howard and the LA Riot taking on Montrez Harrell and Dr. J's first place Chicago triplets. The finale finale will see popular Miami 305 with stars MVP Michael Beasley and Lance will make you Dan Stevenson take on Nancy Lieberman's Dallas power who finished the season winning five straight weeks to capture second place. Can Glen Rice, Greg Monroe and Paul Millsap stop Miami's physical assault? Or will Miami and Beasley put an end to Dallas winning ways? Who will make it to the big three championship? This no holds barred action starts Sunday at 3pm Eastern. 12% only on CBS this Labor Day.

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[Ryan Grim]

Welcome to today.

[IHeart Radio Announcer]

From back to school to tackling your to do list, the Today show is your best start to the day. It's a new season and every morning we're here to help you take it all on as the forecast calls for football all across the country, country blockbuster stars, live concerts and so much more. Wake up to where it's all happening.

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We're getting back to all of it and the best way to start is together.

[IHeart Radio Announcer]

Watch the Today show weekday mornings at 7am on NBC.

[Emily Jashinsky]

On that note, let's move on to some other Democrat news here. There was a tussle, a dust up, if you will, at the St. Louis Police and security were called for Rep. Wesley Bell at a town hall. Here's a video from one constituent who filmed some of the assaults and by the end is getting thrown to the ground Themselves.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, and I could add a little bit of background here, too, that. So this was a. The town hall held by Wesley Bell, who defeated Cori Bush in that contentious primary, as Bush and other constituents who were at this said. So it was. It was tense. You know, Bell did everything he could to stack the audience, you know, requiring tickets. And, you know, it was not. It's just not a free for all. But still, like, most of the people there were pretty hostile to him. And so after a.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Hostile. For what reason? Ryan?

[Ryan Grim]

Israel. Israel, right. Like yelling. Yelling at him about Israel. And he kept. And he was defending, like, you know, calling them, you know, what are you supporters of October 7th or whatever. So after. After the event. After the event, for people who are.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Not to interrupt Ryan, but for people who are just hearing the audio here, I mean, this. There are large men grabbing women by their hair and throwing them to the ground and throat.

[Ryan Grim]

And so at the end of the event, Belle tells them, I gotta go talk to the media in the back. I'm gonna do some interviews, and then I'll come out and speak with people. So Bell leaves, and then immediately all the security starts attacking these constituents, saying, the town hall's over. You gotta leave. And that. And that's how this event unfolded that you just. That you just witnessed. And so now I saw an alderman shared that. Cori Bush also shared that, saying Wesley Bell has questions to answer here. Did, like, did he tell them to stay and then order those.

[Krystal Ball]

His.

[Ryan Grim]

His security to get them out? Did he lie to them, basically, and set them up for this, for this physical confrontation? So Bell is vulnerable and Cory Bush is. Has clearly been publicly flirting with. With a rematch against him. A lot of. A lot of news about Bell and. And about his tenure as a Prosecutor in. In St. Louis broke after he won the election, including sexual harassment allegations, allegations of inappropriate, like, romantic relationships with staff. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. So. And also, you know, we're now two years into this genocide, two years deeper, and so the climate is. Is different perhaps for. For Bush. So I think. I think. I think Bell is vulnerable here.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah. And I mean, like, just to give people a little context for people who don't remember everything about Wesley Bell, he. AIPAC went all in on his race to unseat Cori Bush. The AIPAC tracker here claims that he's gotten over $12 million from the Israel lobby. I was reading something that, like, almost two thirds of all of Wesley Bell's donations were, like, directly from aipac or like, AIPAC affiliated people. So this was just one of the most egregious, like thumb on the scale races we've seen since the Jamaal Bowman one race, if. Is that right, Ryan?

[Ryan Grim]

Yes, that this the second most they've ever spent to knock some, to knock somebody out. And her race was close, much closer, 4,000 votes, I think, than Bowman. Bowman got, you know, trounced, whereas Bush only lost by, yeah, a few thousand votes. So this, this could, this could be an interesting race.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, it is just. This is one of the most illustrative AIPAC examples. It's like you're talking about a district in the St. Louis area that needs to have what, how much? 12 million.

[Ryan Grim]

12 million million.

[Krystal Ball]

$12 million coming to prevent one vote and one voice on one issue that has, that is not a domestic issue.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. It's like, does money mean anything to you guys like that you can just drop 12 million to apex.

[Krystal Ball]

No, they're already, Paul Singer's already enough. Paul Singer's already a million deep into the Thomas Massie primary. Like a primary.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. Kentucky. Is Massie going to win that? Yes, because they're throwing everything at him. Right. I mean, they've got. Trump's team is out there.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I think, I think you'll be fine. But I don't know, maybe it's worth a trip. Maybe I'll, maybe I'll do that. Check it out.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah. And it's also especially egregious to see that amount of money thrown in and kind of, you know, Democrats just kind of looking the other way on it. He's just another congressman like everyone else. And it's like, okay, sure. I mean, in another little bit of Democrat news here, I did want to bring up and get Yalls reactions to something happening over in Minnesota where the Minnesota DFL have revoked their party's endorsement of State Senator Omar Fatah. Is it fata?

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

In the Minneapolis mayor's race. Now this guy is, is he dsa? He's, he's like an, he's, you know, out and out, out of the closet socialist.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, he's. I don't know if he's, I think he's dsa, but he's definitely. Yeah, he's, he's, he would not be offended at being called a socialist.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah. And so they, I guess endorsed and then decided to, to pull, to pull that back, which kind of is, it's just a fascinating one as well, because it's, it's like, it's such a, it's such a, you know, it's the mayor of Minneapolis and it's just like, okay, the Democrats just, they, they don't care. This is still like an old litmus test that they're applying because did he make any statements on Israel or is it just his socialist bona fides?

[Ryan Grim]

Well, so they're saying, I don't know how closely you've looked into it, Emily. I haven't had a chance to dive into the weeds. They're, they're saying that they discovered an irregularity in the way that the Excel spreadsheet was handled during the, during the caucus, that this one candidate was deleted from one of the rounds of voting and that that made the whole thing unfair. I think there might be more in, in the, in the weeds. There's some people who were just straight up accusing him of like fraudulently messing with the spreadsheet somehow. Others are saying, no, that this was an error. This is the part, this is the party's error. Either way, they, they took all of the controversy around it and said, all right, well we're just tossing the whole thing out now. The Minnesota Democratic establishment has wanted to nuke these, these caucuses ever since it became clear that the left was, had become able to out organize the establishment at these caucuses. They're very, very confusing caucuses. You have to go to like multiple different events. You go, you go to one and then you, you know, get your delegates and then the delicate and then you organize those delegates and then you go to another caucus. It's like, like it's more than just like an Iowa caucus. It's like this months long organizing effort. And the more passionate you are, then the more you're, the better you're going to do in this. And it turns out the, the left wing of the Minnesota party is more passionate than the establishment is. And so they've been out organizing them. So they've really wanted to get rid of these, you know, for, for a pretty long time. And yeah, they like the party kind of establishment leadership just does not want Fatah to be the nominee. That's just, it's, it's not a coincidence that they're regularities lined up with their position here.

[Emily Jashinsky]

But for what reason in particular, what is, what is the great threat of this Minneapolis mayor candidate?

[Ryan Grim]

I mean, for one, it's probably, you know, great race like this. He would be the first Somali American to be mayor of the city. Sure there's some like, resistance to that there. And, but then also the, you know, the socialist politics, they want, they want more of a Jacob Frey, like, seems kind of radical, but is totally amenable to the business community.

[Krystal Ball]

Ryan, can you maybe give more context on some of the stuff that's happened with DFL recently? Because I actually think there have been, like, there was. There are serious allegations of chicanery and fraud stuff with DFL in recent years. Haven't there been, like, there's. It's been a source of some drama.

[Ryan Grim]

Has it been a source of more drama than most state parties? The head of it is now the chair of the dnc, Ken Martin. So that, that's, that's interesting as well.

[Krystal Ball]

There was the. The feeding our future thing. The. That was like the Biden and FBI was looking into that, and I think people from DFL were wrapped up in it, but that might. And then the. The FBI was investigating their endorsement process. Yeah, anyway, like you said, that's kind of not that unusual for state parties.

[Emily Jashinsky]

But Emily, let's keep following this lead. I think the FBI should maybe raid some of the dfl, find out what's going on. No one's above the law.

[Krystal Ball]

I was gonna say John Bolton can take over the dfl.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Nice. Okay, so in that case, you know, I wanted to get. While we're on Democrats and infighting and socialist candidates, we had to talk about Graham Platner just for a quick second here. Graham Platner kind of came out of nowhere with this campaign video that people have been sharing around. It kind of went viral. He's running against Susan Collins here in Maine. Let's take a listen to that and then let's get Yalls reactions. I have never met people who are more Scrabble, even in a place that requires you to work like two or three different jobs. We have watched this state become essentially unlivable for working class people, and it makes me deeply angry.

[IHeart Radio Announcer]

My name is Graham Platner and I'm.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Running for U.S. senate in Maine to defeat Susan Collins. A decade of military service, going overseas farming oysters to feed my community, diving to lend a hand to other fishermen trying to start a family. But everywhere I've gone, it seems like the fabric of what holds us together is being ripped apart by billionaires and corrupt politicians, profiting off of destroying our environment, driving our families into poverty, and crushing the middle class. So that's a taste of it. Graham Platner running against Republican Susan Collins in Maine. What are we to make of this?

[Ryan Grim]

Well, turns out this. This has never happened for me before. It turns out I knew Graham Wild. So. So Graham grew up in Maine, then joined the Military did, I think four tours over 10 years or something. And then went to GW, which maybe Emily knew him. I mean, I see. Probably a little before your time. So he went to college at George Washington University. Never didn't actually finish, which to me is another feather in the cap of the.

[Krystal Ball]

That is really the best way to go to George Washington University.

[Ryan Grim]

But while he was there to help pay for it, he tended bar to tune in.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right.

[Ryan Grim]

Which. Which was my home away from home for many years back in the 2000s.

[Krystal Ball]

Chicken balls.

[Ryan Grim]

And so when I saw this, I was like, wait a minute. I know Graham. So I text. I texted the other bartender, Ned, and I was like, is this the same Graham? He's like, yeah, Graham's running for senator.

[Krystal Ball]

Awesome.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes. He is so wild. So he'd be the second bartender, maybe, to come to Congress. The. The race is this guy Jordan Wood, who we can talk about more. I'll have a story on him next week. More of a conventional. Ish candidate. Janet Mills is the governor, Democratic governor of Maine. And everybody is kind of waiting for her to decide whether or not she's going to run. She would be 79 when she took office, which would make her spring chicken. Spring spring chicken for the Senate, but still the oldest freshman senator ever in Senate history. So if you're setting age records in the Senate, you're old. And also, the Senate is a place of seniority. And so, like, you know, it takes. You know, they basically don't talk to you in the Senate until you've won your second. Until you've won reelection. So she would be 85 when her colleagues started to engage with her. Like, what do you. Come on, Democrats, like, run the per. And. And, you know, she's. She's fine. Like, I think she's like, -4 or something. Approval rating. So it's not like people, like, despise her, but it's not like they love her either. Running her would just be the. Like, this is what we do. We take the governor, we put her up, and we see what happens. And now this Grand Platner is offering them a different path. And I think it would make it very easy for them to say yes to. If he's. If he said. If he's talked in a more passive voice, like, our environment's being destroyed, the fabric of our community is being ripped apart. Yeah. Democracy is at risk. It's when he adds by billionaires.

[Krystal Ball]

Yep.

[Ryan Grim]

That the party's like, oh, do we really have to. Do we really have to be so Rude about, About how it's happening. Let's just, let's just talk about the fact that it is happening and it's bad. Do we really have to name them? But do yo. Go ahead.

[Krystal Ball]

I was gonna say, I think that actually is, like, the fine line between Gavin Newsom adopting this new strategy of, like, looking like you're punching Republicans in the nose and then actually executing on that, which is you have to be able to talk about the system being fundamentally broken, but not in those sort of vague terms about the system is not working. You need to say why the system is not working. You need to have a platform so, like, you can, you can raise money and you can boost your name recognition by trolling Trump on social media. But that doesn't mean you're going to, like, suddenly, this is what Matt Bennett and I know we're going to talk about Third Way. He called it, quote, combative centrism. He says Democrats need a combative centrist. Well, if centrism looks like Dan Osborne. Yes. If centrism. If combative centrism or Graham Platner. But if combative centrism looks like Gavin Newsom talking a little bit more like a populist while also still taking all the PG and E money and doing whatever he wants with it. That is the. I really feel like, actually, Ryan, that's such an important point because that's like the fine line between looking like a populace and actually being a populist. And, and I don't think Dems are prepared for how far short just looking like a populace goes. I mean, ask J.D. vance.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And Griffin, do we have the, The Morning Joe?

[Emily Jashinsky]

I'm gonna pull that up in a.

[Ryan Grim]

Second, because while you're, While you're looking for that, I'll, I'll just add the point that the, the path for him, too, could be the Bernie route and the Osborne route, which is. So Bernie always runs in the Democratic primary so that nobody can win the nomination, and then he rejects the nomination and runs as an independent. So you could, I could imagine Graham doing that, that, like, if he wins, because Angus King is an independent senator from Maine. Like, Maine is a different kind of state. It has a real independent streak to it. They were. And they were the hipsters when it came to this. Now, it's cool now, but they were. They've been doing it forever. So you could imagine a world in which he's like, look, I'm not even necessarily a Democrat here. I'm running in the Democratic primary. But doesn't mean I love this party. Sure. And if, and if he wins the nomination, he can decline it and then run as an independent, which, that, that I think is, that is their way of beating Susan Collins. Like, they've, they've tried the, the, the Sarah Gideon, the Last candidate had 75 million dollars and finished with more than 12 million in the bank. She had another 50 million in super PAC money. Susan Collins had just as much. And she got beaten by like six points or something. She was the speaker of the House. Like that. They, they keep running these like, it's my turn. Democrats against Susan Collins. And people are like, Collins is kind of a phony and a fraud, but so is this person. And I've, and Collins is a hard worker and charming in person and knows everybody in Maine. And so you have to, you can't just do a Susan Collins light. To beat Susan Collins, you need to do a contrast.

[Krystal Ball]

And she, that was the Gideon race was after the Kavanaugh vote, and this time Collins voted against the one big beautiful bill. So it's right.

[Ryan Grim]

And people, people are a little tired of that shtick. Graham had a good line about her. He's like, the only difference between her and Ted Cruz is Ted Cruz is honest about, you know, know how he's, how he's selling you out. But did, you know, did you see that? She, I think, to me, made a mistake. She has already, like, criticized him by name over his, over his position on Gaza, which he, you know, he called it a genocide and, and said that, you know, the US Needs to change its policy towards, towards Israel.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And she, she's really got her finger to the wind on that one.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, she went after him over that, that Mills Collins. Mills Collins did.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Collins did.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. Collins went after Graham Platner over it. It's like, I don't know if this is your move, like, you, you really want to elevate this guy. Be careful.

[Krystal Ball]

Hasn't she, you really want to make.

[Ryan Grim]

This race about, about Gaza.

[Krystal Ball]

Like, I, I, I think this was in Politico, but I think Susan Collins already has Dems, Dem donors lining up behind her.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, yeah, Yep.

[Emily Jashinsky]

They would rather, yeah, they'd rather do that, but some Dems are starting to get a little bit, they're starting to get a, a little warm for him. We've got a Morning Joe clip here. Oh, Ryan mentioned, Ryan mentioned that, you know, the passive voice that Graham should adopt, but I think Graham's greatest skill is.

[Ryan Grim]

No, I don't think, no, I don't think he should. No, no, I don't think he should adopt.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I think, I know that's.

[Ryan Grim]

I know party would like him to adopt, adapt.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, yeah, but you mentioned that, that that's what the party would like. But his deep bravado, I think is his greatest superpower here. And I think it can let him get away with anything. As we can see, it's already, it's already wooed our, our friends over at Morning Joe Looks independent media right here to the. Yeah. Part of the MSX B Now plus or whatever it is.

[Krystal Ball]

I saw an ad out of Maine.

[Ryan Grim]

Whoa.

[IHeart Radio Announcer]

That's what that, like, that's one of.

[Ryan Grim]

The most effective ads I have seen in a long time. And that's a Democrat who's being himself, but also is very clearly saying, no, no, no, the flag's not your symbol. No, no, no. Working dude in a, in a black.

[Emily Jashinsky]

T shirt is not just, you know, you're symbolic.

[Ryan Grim]

Like, there are a lot of hardworking people out here who think you all are acting crazy right now.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And it's really, it's the authenticity and.

[Ryan Grim]

It'S something you and I talked about too.

[Emily Jashinsky]

You can have all the focus groups you want.

[Ryan Grim]

You walk into a room, you either.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Know you people in that room either.

[Ryan Grim]

Know you're one of them or you're not.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And the candidate you mentioned in Mame, Graham Platner, is, and I'll just read his bio here on his excite. Combat veteran, friend of the working manor, foe of the oligarchy, Hunk six five.

[Krystal Ball]

Let's go.

[Emily Jashinsky]

You know, it's funny, it's like out of all the things, you know, he didn't like that he was anti oligarchy, anti billionaire. He liked that he was a hunk. He was salivating over this guy. He was like the biceps, the vibe. I just, you know, the bartender that you, that you respect, that you want to earn the respect of. When you come to the bar, it's.

[Ryan Grim]

It'S running the Fetterman strategy again in the sense that when Federman was a left wing candidate, a populist left wing candidate, that people would come after him and try to tar him with all the same, you know, things that they would try to hit AOC with. And it just, it just didn't scan because people would be like, well, look at him. He looks like, yeah, this American dude, he's like, he's like a cool bartender. Like, like, yeah, it's not gonna stick. And yeah, just the morning Morning Joe is just, they're just like, yeah, I think he's hot.

[Krystal Ball]

Wait until they Realize it's another vote for Medicare for all. Wait till they realize it's another.

[Ryan Grim]

That was their problem with, with Fetterman at the time. And they, then they couldn't quite figure out how to. Because they're so caught up in their cultural politics. They're just, they just love so much that he's a veteran and can, can, can like grab the flag that they're so all in that they can't. They have nothing to then say about the substance of his politics. They're stuck.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, this, I mean, this brings us back to, to Dan, Dan Osborne, who was running against Deb Fisher, someone that Morning Joe would absolutely bear hug anytime. I'm sure they saw her in an airport lounge, I should say, because they wouldn't just be meandering around the airport. But he was really clever on the culture stuff. And that's a huge question for Graham. Maine has had a lot of controversy over trans sports and that will. Janet Mills in particular has become a focus of the Trump administration that has made a lot of waves in Maine recently. And so that is sort of the next bridge to cross. Bernie AOC obviously have gone on the Fighting Oligarchy tour and downplayed a lot of that and actually attacked it to the extent that they've addressed it. Attacked it by saying it's a distraction. It's trying to divide working people. And those lines, I think are effective. Dan Osborne, when we interviewed him last year, Ryan had, I thought, you know, you could tell it wasn't focus grouped or anything, I think, which is why it was effective. A really strong answer when we asked him about abortion and when we talked to him about some of the culture war questions. So on the one hand, this sort of like combative centrist, it just shows how our category for what centrism is is totally confounded. Like it doesn't, we don't really like we know what they want centrism to be, but for the average voter, it's something that feels more like anti oligarchy, common sense policies. But it's not like this neat left, right, center that Morning Joe would want it to be. And I think they're probably in for a little bit of a rude awakening when they find out. And Gavin Newsom too, by the way, when they find out what, what voters who like you punching Republicans in those actually want to see you do.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And an oysterman, like, how lucky could Democrats get that they, that Graham. No, the, the, the only part that's unlucky for them is his politics. You know, that he agrees more with me than he does with them. But from a biography perspective, you know they got a a combat veteran and an oysterman who's born and raised in Maine like and is willing to call himself a Democrat. Not many of those seriously, right?

[IHeart Radio Announcer]

The reviews and ratings are in and Ice Cube's Big three is the surprise hit of the summer. And to cap off the season, iHeart presents the Big Three basketball playoffs this Sunday at 3pm Eastern. The remaining four teams battling out for the right to make make the Big three Championship in the most physical, fierce and competitive basketball league in the world. The action starts with the Big three Monster Energy Celebrity game where your favorite stars compete in big three three on three basketball. Then the first of two semifinal games features Dwight Howard and the LA riot taking on Montrez Harrell and Dr. J's first place Chicago triplets. The finale will see popular Miami 305 with stars MVP Michael Beasley and last will make you Destiny Stevenson take on Nancy Lieberman's Dallas power who finished the season winning five straight weeks to capture second place. Can Glenn Rice, Greg Monroe and Paul Millsap stop Miami's physical assault? Or will Miami and Beasley put an end to Dallas's winning ways? Who will make it to the Big Three championship? This no holds barred action starts Sunday at 3pm Eastern, 12 Pacific only on.

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[Ryan Grim]

And the best way to start is.

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Together watch the Today show weekday mornings at 7am on NBC.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And so yeah, it's like, you know, the Democrats, they need fighters but they, but you know, they really only want fighters who meme as we see, they're much more comfortable with Newsom and in his meme war. We've got a sign here from Harry Enten showing that the memes are working. Folks, folks, let's take a listen. I think, I think it absolutely has been working in terms of generating attention, which is what he's trying to do, right? I mean take a look here. Let's take a look right at the gov press office followers on X. That's of course where you get those sort of the account where Newsom post those Trump style mocking types of tweets. Get this, that, that account. Get this up 450% in terms of the number of followers since mid June. And it's not just on Twitter, X where, where Newsom is gaining even on TikTok and Instagram. His followers are up over a million since January alone. My goodness gracious.

[Ryan Grim]

And more than that, Laura, more than that.

[Emily Jashinsky]

What about Google? What about those Google searches form, get this, daily Google searches for Gavin Newsom up like a rocket. What are we talking about? Since June 1st, up 1300% compared to August 1st. Look at that, up 500%. So the bottom line is in politics, especially if you're thinking of entering in 2028, it's all about generating attention. And so far, Gavin Newsom has done a good job at generating attention. And you know, the one thing I want to mention before Tina, for you guys to your reaction is like, you know, seeing how quote unquote, almost like unhinged some of the Gavin Newsom press office memory has become. It makes other people that we think of in 2028 look downright like timid. Like, it makes AOC look like humble and timid and reserved. And it's, it's almost like, oh, like AOC would need to like really crank up her rhetoric in a way that it's like almost. We've been told people like Kerr should tone down their rhetoric, but it seems like almost the opposite here with Newsom. What do y' all make of that.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, well, I just want to say, like, it's going. I actually ran this by a Republican strategist, and I was like, this is, you know, I think the Newsom posts have gone from the Alec Baldwin impression of Trump to the Shane Gillis impression of Trump. So that's something. His Cracker Barrel post was genuinely pretty artful. But all that is to say it's great right now for. For fundraising. And I sent it to a Republican strategist friend who is like, no, because I was kind of, like, skeptical. I was like, this is basically, I sent him this playbook article that was drooling over Gavin Newsom a couple of days ago about how he was like, the great hope of the Democratic Party. And I was like, this is so stupid. And the person I sent it to, the Republican strategist, was like, actually, no, this is what you need to do if you position yourself for a primary, because it's name recognition, it's Google searches, it's donors, and it's particularly donors. And so if you can build up goodwill with Democratic voters who then recognize your name, and then the donor class starts throwing money at you, you make connections that are helpful in a primary, and you come in with a little bit of a war chest. And so, yes, to that extent, I think it is successful. Like, all of that. Great. But what does it mean that, like, he's doing. He picked a redistricting fight, which, I mean, is talking about, like, this is raw power, but it's not something that is actually fundamentally attacking the system itself, as we were just discussing. And I think Gavin Newsom is in for a rude awakening. If a year and a half from. Or whatever, we're talking primary time, and he's out in Iowa and New Hampshire talking about redistricting and not the. The oligarchy that has metastasized in his own state because of the rocket fuel that he's poured on it. So, yeah, I mean, it's working in a political sense, but I don't know that it's working in a sort of deeper sense.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. I don't think you're going to get Gavin Newsom talking about the millionaires and the billionaires. Nope. But I think Democratic primary voters will. Will take whoever they think is going to win. Like, they're, they're. They. And it's existential to them. And so if they think that Gavin Newsom's a fighter against Republicans, you know, that he can take on, he can make fun of Vance and DeSantis and Marco Rubio and, And Trump himself, if he figures out some way to fake run for another term, then, then that's going to be enough to get through the primary. So, yeah, I agree with the Republican strategist. Like, his goal, he's not, his goal right now is not to win the general election. His goal is to be the nominee and then once you're the nominee, you've got a coin toss chance of being president.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yep. Okay, very interesting. Well, I wanted to get to this before we get to our second paywall. Half wanted to make sure we talked a little about this. There has been a new reporting from the Israeli army database suggesting at least 83% of the Gaza dead were civilians. Classified intelligence from May reveals Israel believed it had killed 8,900 militants in Gaza, indicating a proportion of civilian slaughter with few parallels in modern warfare. Now, Ryan, like, I know you have looked into these numbers more and I guess my first question is like, hey, this is just from the, the Israeli army database which they've admitted on air. I mean, I've seen them admit it like multiple times on Piers Morgan and on other sites that they're not exactly sure. Like, and they're not always tracking the amount of deaths. And there's also been, you know, from I think the view of our show, probably an undercount on the amount of deaths because there's still so many people buried under rubble and stuff like that that. So what is, what does all of that add into this already? Very bleak calculation.

[Ryan Grim]

And so Yuval Abraham, one of the authors of this, of this Guardian 972 piece, you know, says, you know, has, has said publicly and says the piece that, that it is their assessment that this is a, that even this is a significant undercount, that the number is probably over, not over 90% civilians, rather than 83% because effectively what the IDF does is anybody who's of fighting age and is a male and they define fighting age extraordinarily liberally, like 16ish, to basically well into your 60s, if not higher. If they kill you, then they'll put you in this probably, at minimum, they'll put you in probably a militant category which they included in this thing. So basically any, any man who's over like 16, who they kill, you know, they're, they're putting into this calculation, even, even given that they're only getting to this, you know, 17% figure. Now the Israeli PR response to this was, okay, these are people we've identified as terrorists. Well, look, that's not totally accurate. You've identified them as Potentially being that which sometimes your identification just goes on the fact that they're a male, like Anas Al Sharif, like he would be factored into this. Most of the journalists that they've killed, they would be, they would, they would be included in this militant figure. Even though that's a. And even though that's false, they're saying, you know, if people pop out of a tunnel and we shoot them, like we don't know their name, but you know, we know that they're a combatant, so that that should count as a combatant. Problem there is that while they don't know their name, Ministry of Health eventually gets their name when that person goes to the morgue or the hospital and then they get included on the, the paperwork that they put out every day. And then the IDF sees that name and says, oh, that's a 20 year old male. We're counting them. Whether we know anything about them or not, we're counting them. So basically from all of the research that we've done, what we can tell is that they are, they are counting every single remotely fighting age male as a combatant and then doing their calculations from there and still winding up at genocidal levels of slaughter, which is like.

[Emily Jashinsky]

You know, we've been told for the last two years it's the greatest military ratio ever done by a modern army.

[Ryan Grim]

Although they barely say that anymore, if you've noticed. Right. Yeah. They made the most moral army in the world. They've basically dropped that line. You almost never hear that anymore. But Griffin, for you and I, this is, you know, it to me it's personal because it's like nobody's standing up for a civilian. Men like, you know, if, if we were in Gaza and we go to a. Try to fill up buckets of water and bring them back to the family and we're killed along the way, we would get listed as combatants just because, just because we're men. Yeah. And anybody knows me knows that that would be false. No fighting going on here.

[Krystal Ball]

Unless you're at a bar.

[Ryan Grim]

Unless I'm at a bar. Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Unless someone, unless a Fox News steals your cell phone.

[Ryan Grim]

Oh, that's different.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, It's a real story. You can Google it. This is one of the things that is going to, we all know this, but one of the things that's going to be, that's going to probably age the most poorly is the number conversation. Yeah, like that. It is becoming clearer and clearer. And actually, you know, coming from the right, I fully understand people's skepticism. I Get it, it, fine. But at this point there's just so much evidence.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, it's also like frustrating because it's like, you know, the, the last two years have been spent talking about the protesters, not understanding, overblowing it. And I'm sorry, like I'm not an, a war expert, I don't know any of this stuff but when you see like the amount of destruction and they tell you it's only this many people, it's like I'm sorry, like that's, that's absolutely ridiculous. And so yes, turns out the protesters were right. They're killing basically everyone they can see. And I doubt that many people are going to have to ever own up to that fact because they're just, I mean in the milieu of news everyone's just going to kind of pretend like they weren't denying that for two years.

[Ryan Grim]

And meanwhile, I'll put, I'll put this one up. So this is the BBC about as Israeli friendly and outlet as you're going to get. And the headline here, Famine Confirmed in Gaza for first time UN backed report. So to get an official designation of a famine takes an extraordinary amount of evidence. And so while people have been colloquially using the phrase famine, you know, for at least several weeks, maybe dating back to like April or April, May, you know, it was March when Israel cut off March 2 when Israel cut off all food and then kept it cut off for two months and then led in a trickle after that. So people have been throwing around the term famine colloquially since then, but now they've designated as I'll just read this, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Ipc which is used by governments and international bodies to identify hunger levels around the world, has raised its classific classification to phase five, the highest and most severe. It says over half a million people across the Gaza Strip are facing catastrophic conditions characterized by starvation, destitution and death. And it's, and it goes on elsewhere to say that, that even a matter of days that, that go by without immediate surging of nutritional support and medical support will lead, you know, to irreversible damage for you know, as they're saying 500,000 people at like immediate risk. And so this is, this is the step that people were hoping would not be reached because, because it's such a high bar are to clear kind of logistically and bureaucratically for the IPC to actually come out and say that we're at phase five, that it's reflective of, you know, just an utterly extraordinary situation.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, and you said you know. Oh, they're not using the, they're not really debating the numbers as much anymore in the Israeli spokespeople aren't mentioning that they're a moral army anymore. So certain American media influencers have sort of said, don't worry, we'll take up the mantle. We'll handle it all from here. People like the Free Press still going on doing these insane articles like this woman Olivia Rheingold who is complaining that her article is saying there's no starvation in Gaza now. She's losing childhood friends because of it. And she's the real victim here. And we're gonna go to the second half now, but we do have some I want to bring up, some conservative American influencers have been sent to Gaza to prove that starvation is not real. A lot of these guys are associated with what's it called? The Learning one. Prager, you the learning One. The Learning One, yeah. They're sending their best. We're gonna look at that in the second half, folks. For anyone who wants to check out that second half, you can sign up to become a [e-mail] we're also, we.

[Krystal Ball]

Should te we're also going to argue about Cracker Barrel.

[Emily Jashinsky]

We're going to go to the mat on the woke DEI Cracker Barrel rebrand and and fun other stories like that. Emily, you don't know what side I'm going to be on yet. I haven't decided either. Go to Brady boyce.com to become a member. We've got a great $10 monthly membership now and we're going to answer some AMA questions. So we'll see you all on that second half.

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[Ryan Grim]

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[Krystal Ball]

This is an iHeart podcast.