8/3/26: Trump Backs Down On Iran Strikes, US Forced Out Of Iraq, Munitions Run Low Amid War

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode Date: August 3, 2026
Episode Theme: U.S. Strategic Collapse in the Middle East – Trump Backs Down on Iran Strikes, Forced Withdrawal from Iraq, Ally Fallout, and Depleting U.S. Military Arsenal

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Overview

In this episode, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti break down a historic and chaotic week in U.S. foreign policy, focusing on President Trump’s dramatic reversal of threatened strikes against Iran, the forced U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, and disturbing signs of military depletion amid ongoing conflicts. The hosts analyze shifting power dynamics in the Middle East, the existential crisis facing American imperial prestige, and the broader implications for U.S. allies and global security.

Their discussion blends pointed skepticism, dark humor, and frank critique of “empire logic,” drawing on breaking news, military leaks, and high-profile media analysis.

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1. Trump Backs Down on Iran Strikes

[02:13–07:32]

• Trump publicly threatened unprecedented military action against Iran, boasting of U.S. readiness to inflict “military terror, strength and power not seen since World War II.”
• Trump then abruptly canceled planned strikes, claiming a deal for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end its nuclear ambitions—claims immediately denied by Iran.
  • Iranian state media called reopening reports “false,” stating, “As long as the U.S. continues its hostile actions, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.” (06:21)
• Leaks reveal Trump’s threats and buildups were as much about pressuring Iran and signaling to regional players as about actual plans. Ultimately, the U.S. “chickened out” under regional and military pressure.

Notable Quote:

• “Trump just completely, basically—I mean, chickened out … ultimately it came down to bluster. Threats didn’t follow through because the entire Gulf was like, please do not do this. You can’t defend us. And then our infrastructure will also be destroyed.”
  —Saagar Enjeti [07:25]

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2. Military Floundering: No Good Options

[07:33–16:38]

• U.S. CENTCOM (Central Command) was reduced to “crowdsourcing” new military ideas, openly calling for “creative and unconventional” ways to pressure Iran via internal emails.
• The hosts emphasize the unprecedented futility:
  • “They are literally out of ideas and having to go to the crowd. ‘Hey, I don’t know. You guys got any thoughts on what we could do here?’” —Krystal Ball [09:51]
• The actual impact of repeated U.S. strikes is minimal; Iran remains defiant and strategic, the U.S. aimless and reactive.
• As munitions run low, U.S. strikes reportedly devolved into random bombings, including a “2,000-pound bomb on a family home” with no military value.

Notable Quotes:

• “47 years, trillions of dollars, and all I got was this lousy email.”
  —Saagar Enjeti [12:34]
• “We act just like the Israelis now … this is exactly the way that Israel behaves, is the way we behave. And we think nothing of taking your tax dollars and using it to buy 2,000-pound bombs that we drop on family homes, you know, in Iran.”
  —Krystal Ball [16:38]

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3. Empire in Crisis: Strategic and Ideological Collapse

[16:39–23:43]

• Both hosts stress that the refusal to admit defeat—to “acknowledge de facto Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz”—stems from the fear of ending the U.S. empire.
• Military and political elites are ideologically “committed to the continuance of the U.S. empire,” even knowing the war is lost.
• Krystal draws parallels to the end of the Vietnam War: only catastrophic economic or political crisis will force the U.S. to withdraw.

Notable Quotes:

• “Admitting defeat, admitting that we can’t control the waterways ... that is basically the end of U.S. Empire.”
  —Krystal Ball [19:05]
• “We will throw good money after bad ten times over just to not have to admit defeat.”
  —Saagar Enjeti [22:21]

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4. Allies in Disarray and Fallout

[26:53–30:28]

• Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince personally pleaded with Trump to call off planned strikes; even Gulf allies fear U.S. can’t or won’t defend them.
• Some U.S. allies (UAE, Bahrain) are “furious” that America isn’t escalating; their regimes face existential threats.
• U.S. prestige as the world’s security guarantor is crumbling:
  • “You have an empire of antiquity… you start a war which is disastrous … and then the provinces … say please, please don’t stop [defending us] because you don’t have the capacity.” —Saagar Enjeti [29:13]

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5. Iran’s Asymmetric Pressure and U.S. Vulnerability

[30:28–35:35]

• Reports of Iranian hacks into U.S. water supply systems in several states (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan) suggest Iran’s ability to project power beyond the battlefield.
• The hosts caution skepticism but note that cyberattacks are credible forms of “horizontal escalation.”
• Even unconfirmed hacks serve as warnings: “Nice water supply system you have there… shame if something would happen to it.” —Krystal Ball [33:29]

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6. Military Logistics Crisis: U.S. Forced Out of Iraq

[38:03–45:48]

• The U.S. is hastily withdrawing from key bases in Iraq (notably Erbil), pulling Patriot air defense systems under threat from Iranian proxies.
  • “Basically Iran wants us out of the region and in a way we are being forced to oblige because we can no longer protect our forces…”
    —Krystal Ball [39:23]
• Saagar explains how U.S.-built bases have become indefensible “not on our own terms,” a humiliation following decades of costly presence.
• The war has revealed fundamental flaws in U.S. strategy, with drone and missile threats rendering traditional basing and power projection obsolete.
• For the first time, U.S. military leaders openly state they “lack sufficient forces to protect Israel,” and must prioritize defending the U.S. homeland.

Notable Quotes:

• “Let’s just pause on the wild nature of even having to say, well, we’ve got a tough choice on our hands: Defend Israel or defend the homeland. Like, how is this even being framed?”
  —Krystal Ball [45:48]

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7. U.S. and Israel: The Cost of “Endless Support”

[45:48–49:36]

• Crisis-level depletion: The U.S. has burned through 25% of its THAAD interceptors in just 13 days defending Israel.
• U.S. allies in the Gulf receive less protection, despite greater economic importance.
• Pentagon insiders still propose “two-week plans” for massive escalation against Iran—despite clear evidence of failure and resource exhaustion.

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8. Strategic Defeat Now Mainstream

[49:37–51:33]

• The New York Times openly describes the U.S. as headed for a “strategic defeat” in Iran.
• “With none of President Trump’s aims accomplished and the Strait of Hormuz closed, U.S. Allies see dysfunction and vulnerability from this war.”
  —Krystal Ball [49:36]
• This establishment acknowledgment, the hosts argue, marks a decisive turn: “the writing is on the wall … we have undeniably gone in the opposite direction and have much, much less leverage in order to secure the aims [of the war] than we did before we started this foolish war.”
  —Krystal Ball [50:37]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “They are literally out of ideas and having to go to the crowd. … They are literally emailing analysts: ‘If anyone’s got a better idea of what we could do here, let us know.’”
  – Krystal Ball [09:51]
• “If this had a military solution, it would have already been done. … This is a political problem.” – Saagar Enjeti [13:03]
• “We act just like the Israelis now… this is exactly the way that Israel behaves, is the way we behave.”
  – Krystal Ball [16:38]
• “We are living through what is technically called a revolution in military affairs…”
  – Saagar Enjeti [41:43]
• “We will throw good money after bad ten times over just to not have to admit defeat. And Trump will have to be brought to a crushing economic situation to ultimately recognize the de facto Iranian or Omani control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
  – Saagar Enjeti [22:21]

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Key Takeaways

• Bluster and Leaks Backfire: Trump’s threats were revealed as hollow; Iran called his bluff, and even allies begged him not to pull the trigger.
• Military Exhaustion: Years of war gaming provided no solutions; now CENTCOM is openly out of ideas and running short on munitions.
• Strategic Withdrawal: U.S. is being expelled from Iraq “not on our own terms” as Iranian proxies exert dominance.
• Allies Lose Faith: Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states see the limits of U.S. protection; the empire’s prestige is shattering.
• Resource Prioritization: U.S. must now choose between defending Israel, partners, or the homeland—a stark sign of imperial overstretch.
• Mainstream Acknowledgment of Defeat: Even the New York Times is forced to concede U.S. objectives have failed catastrophically.

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For those who missed the episode, this conversation offers a sobering look at how entrenched strategic habits and ideological commitments are colliding with harsh new realities—leaving the U.S. empire, its allies, and its people grappling with defeat and uncertainty.

Transcript

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[Saagar Enjeti]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning everybody. Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have? Crystal?

[Krystal Ball]

Indeed we do. The taco cycle continues on Iran. Trump backs down after making a series of extraordinary threats. Stop me if you've heard this one before. We'll break down the very latest here. Meanwhile, top brass in military warning that we can choose. We can either protect Israel or or we can protect the homeland. So that seems great. This comes as US Forces are withdrawing from Iraq and a series of warnings have gone out to embassies across the region. Congressman Max Miller is under fire for domestic abuse allegations. We've got some new details there. And a wild video that he released doubling down and trying to defend himself. It appears that the US And Israel may have been behind a hybrid war up against Spain, possibly looking likely. We'll show you all the evidence. Juan David Rojas is going to join us to break down what happened in Ceuda with this migrant quote, unquote invasion. Meanwhile, New York is suing Kelshi for the right to control gambling in their own state. This is a major, major lawsuit which will determine whether or not states have any say whatsoever in what is allowed to go in their state with regards to gambling.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yes, it is a landmark lawsuit. It will literally determine the fate of sports gambling nationwide. And also give just some people some detail about how explosive gambling has become here in our society. Thank you to everybody who has been signing up BreakingPoints.com you can go ahead and sign up for our free newsletter. We have a big announcement actually that's coming tomorrow and that will be released on our newsletter for all of our subscribers. So it's totally free to be able to sign up breakingpoints.com or you can support our premium subscription program which is also available at our website. If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you're listening to this podcast, please share an episode with. But as Crystal said, let's go ahead and begin with Taco Sunday of what we saw. Let's put a one up here on the screen. Trump. The USA is locked and loaded, ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran at levels of military terror, strength and power not seen since World War II. Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran and other Middle Eastern countries to hold off any attack in that the parameters of a deal has been agreed to. This would include the immediate, complete and total opening of the Hormuz Strait and an end to Iran's nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the world and likewise the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a deal. The country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work everybody. Get it done. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. Trump so this comes on the heels of some leakage that came out of the White House. What we can now very clearly see was an op President Trump met on Friday with his entire cabinet in which he convened a big meeting about Iran. And in that meeting, what immediately came out and leaks to Axios, CBS News and otherwise, was that the US Was planning a massive attack on Iran's energy infrastructure in conjunction with the nation of Israel. Now, immediately, many people said, well, you know, if you were gonna do a big attack, would you necessarily leak it in the first place? Many speculated that it was indeed an opening and a threat to try and get Iran to capitulate. However, Iran didn' not capitulate. They did not come to the table. No deal actually was reached. And when push came to shove, Trump ultimately just decided to cancel it because of the dire warnings from his own military. And we know this because Iran has released this. Let's put it up here on the screen. They say the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is false. A source close to the nuclear negotiation team, this is from Iranian state media, told Fars media there is no agreement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The news published about it is false. Furthermore, a military source emphasized, as long as the United States continues its hostile actions, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The passage of ships will only be possible through the designated route and with permission from the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Hours ago, some media outlets affiliated with the enemy claimed Iran had agreed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A plan which ships would enter the Persian Gulf through the Iranian territorial waters and exit through Omani territorial waters. Basically crystal, from what we can see so far, is that this so called parameter of a deal is based upon a meeting in which nothing was agreed to between the Omanis and between the Iranians, in which they were hashing out for themselves whether ships were able to enter through Iran and exit through the Omani route. Remember, the United States is currently trying to route all traffic through the Omani route outside of Iranian territorial waters, of course, which has been met with Iranian fire because of their control of the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, just hours after this deal was supposedly announced, Iran fired at a tanker which was trying to do just that hours ago as of last night. So nothing has actually been agreed to. The blockade is on. Trump just completely, basically, I mean, chickened out. Cause we want him to taco. We want that here on this show. But ultimately it came down to bluster. Threats didn't follow through because the entire Gulf was like, please do not do this. You can't defend us. And then Our infrastructure will also be destroyed.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's right. And I wouldn't be surprised at all because Iran has agreed to nothing if they continue to take shots at strategic assets in the region. Because, you know, their view is that they need to continue to make us pay and force Trump to do more than chicken out because it's not enough for him to just walk away from the current thing, insane threat that he's making. He actually has to accept a defeat. And that's why you can never dismiss these wild ravings from him. We see assets moving to the region. We see him making these very public threats. We see leaks in the press about wild plans that are being hatched and considered in the Situation Room. And you can't dismiss it even though we go through the cycle time and time again because it's impossible to see him also accepting the deal that would be on the table which would acknowledge that we have been completely defeated. So we're now in this no man's land where it is very precarious, where it is very uncertain what the next move is ultimately going to be. And you cannot rule out that he may get frustrated at some point and do some wild, you know, nuclear attack on Pickaxe Mountain or try to seize Kharg island, etc. Put a 7 up on the screen. You flagged this this morning. I mean, this gives you a sense of just how desperate ideas they are. They've taken to, like crowdsourcing strategies for an attack. Here, this is from CNN. They say exclusive U.S. military asked troops for creative and unconventional ideas to punish Iran. The request from a senior officer at the US Military command carrying out President Donald Trump's war with Iran came in an email. We need ideas. We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran, an officer and US centcom's intelligence branch wrote in a message sent Wednesday to a broad group of military analysts, according to a source familiar. Second source also said a senior US Military officer sent the message last week soliciting new ideas for how to deal with Iran. The crowdsourcing style query, which military officials said was unusual over email, is one sign of the limited and potentially unpalatable options available to Trump to force Iran into a deal on his terms. Hoping to find an alternative, the official at CENTCOM kicked off the brainstorming session via email to see if anyone had a better idea. The second source said Centcom is looking at everything, acknowledging it needs to reevaluate the strategy. I mean, this is wild. I mean, Sagar, think about, think about this. How long, how many decades has the US Military been thinking about and war gaming and planning out what they would do vis a vis Iran, considering we thought every possible scenario. And so if you think, you know, if you're listening to Mark Levin or you're missing listening to Ben Shapiro and you're hearing all this confidence from people, oh, we just need to strike them harder. We just need to bomb them a little bit more and it's all gonna work out. The US Military doesn't think so. They are literally out of ideas and having to go to the crowd. Hey, I don't know. We got nothing. You guys got any thoughts on what we could do here?

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[Saagar Enjeti]

47 years, trillions of dollars, and all I got was this lousy email. I mean, that's where it kind of su where we're at. You're going to the junior officer corps and be like, hey, we've only spent our entire careers planning for this. This has been the number one thing, the op plan on the desk, the CENTCOM commander, it's literally his job every year to update the plan. And they executed that plan. It was a tremendous failure. So what does that say about them? And I'm sure there's some junior military officer and other who's trying to come up with some better ideas and they can try, but the end of the day, what we have in front of us is very simple, is within the bounds of what Trump actually, this is. And this dispels the entire thing. This is not a military problem. This is a political problem. Because if this had a military solution, it would have already been done. When it comes to unconventional ideas. And, you know, let's take past wars where the US was bought in, like World War II or others, what would happen in a situation like this is they would have buy in from the business community, from the intellectuals, from all of society who are all working together to creatively solve this very, very thorny issue. But here, the vast majority of the population, we want out any corporation that's not a defense contract or other that's engaged in trying to do this, we're like, whoa, whoa, whoa, we don't want to continue this war. We want this over with, done for. And that's the biggest problem that the White House faces. Politically. We don't want a ground invasion. Sure, it could happen, but that's not necessarily something that any of us want at all. In fact, we want the total opposite. And that's why within the confines of what Trump has, where he has to have minimal casualties and he wants to inflict, inflict maximum damage, there is no military solution to this problem, period. The sooner that we get to capitulation and to acknowledging de facto Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, the sooner the better. We all are off. And in fact, you can even see any even signs of peace, quote unquote, or even lack of action. You know, oil is like 80 something dollars a barrel. So, you know, if this comes and stays for the next two weeks you will see dipping below and it'll just continue to be this on and off cycle. But I do think that your point about how the Iranians will very likely continue to punish is because they see that the problem of oil continuing to go up and down and up and down is giving the White House the Runway necessarily that they don't want. Because remember, the blockade is still in power and their economy is still suffering. They have a much higher capacity for suffering than we do. They've lost, I mean, so many more people in the engagements. I mean, we're gonna talk about one of them actually. Maybe we can just put it up here now. A5, for example, all of what's being done in our name. You know, right now it appears in the United States we dropped a 2,000 pound bomb on a family home on Kashim island, killing a husband, a wife and their two year old son. The paper found no indication of a nearby military. You can see the crater. I mean, it is stunning, like genuinely crazy scenes out of Gaza. Why did we kill these people for no reason, you know, Absolutely not. And their blood was shed for literally nothing in this case, you know, and it shows also the point about CENTCOM being like, we need more ideas, we've run out of targets. It appears if we're going around, we're hitting family homes with 2,000 pound bombs, we're just bombing random stuff in and along the Strait of Hormuz or where Iranian air defense capabilities are ahead. And so you can see like it is just a never ending cycle of we bomb simply for the sake of bombing, all belying an actual diplomatic solution. And that diplomatic solution will involve the greatest strategic defeat of the United States in modern history. And that's simply a people. We have to swallow it until, until we get used to that idea, then this is just going to be the status quo. And the President has not suffered nearly enough to be able to get him to that point. Because we all know what it's going to have to look like. It is the simple reality of the current facts that are in front of us.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, this 2,000 pound bomb dropped on a family home, Trump's constant threats to commit war crimes against civilian infrastructure, the of course, triple tap bombing of a girl's school, which I don't think anyone could say with a straight face for sure was unintentional. We act just like the Israelis now. You know, we spent a long time covering the genocide in Gaza, saying that with all of the qualms and critiques that we have of the way the US Military behaved in Iraq and Afghanistan. There were some lines and I don't think that we can really say that anymore. You know, I don't think that we would given a similar scenario. I mean we backed the entire Gaza genocide, so how can we even say, separate ourselves from, from any of this? This is exactly the way that Israel behaves, is the way we behave. And we think nothing of taking your tax dollars and using it to buy 2,000 pound bombs that we drop on family homes, you know, in Iran. So that is what our country is at this point and people should be horrified by that. Do, do you have any, any expectation that the Trump administration will engage in any sort of investigation to find out what happens here? No, because there was theoretically an investigation into the girls school bombing and Trump came out and said oh well, we'll never know what happened, meaning they'll never release the results. They know exactly, exactly what happened there. Couple things with regard to the let's crowdsource and brainstorm the next move here because we're out of ideas. Do you think Iran's out of ideas? No, they know exactly what they would do next. They know exactly the way that they would escalate. They have lots of ideas for how they could cause even more pain and tighten the grip on the global economy, which is obviously a primary strategy for them. So while we're running around, I don't know what we do next. We kind of blew our load with all the targets and none of it's really having an impact and don't really want to do this ground invasion because it will be a complete and total disaster and probably won't work anyway. Don't really want to do the whole tactical nuclear weapon on Pickaxe Mountain because of that, what that will unleash. Iran has a plan and a strategy and has been executing it quite effectively. So their coherence versus our chaotic incoherence I think tells you a lot to, to begin with here. And let's go and put a six up on the screen in terms of how Iran is thinking about this. This is from Treat to Parsi. He's reflecting on the latest taco cycle. He says yet another apocalyptic threat followed by another self congratulatory climb down the pattern is becoming tiresome by now. Unable to escalate his way out of the self inflicted debacle, Trump tries to bluff his way out. Except Tehran is not falling for it. Rather it is confidently raising the stakes. Calculating Trump will only fully commit to a diplomatic solution once he has internalized that he does not have a military option. It's a risky strategy with potential attacks in Egypt and cyber attacks in the U.S. we'll get to that in just a moment. But one that the new and far less restrained military leadership believes is more likely to achieve security than giving in to Trump. So the next few days will undoubtedly be eventful. And he's holding a Q and A session Friday, I believe you can sign up over at his substack, which, of course, we recommend that you do. But, you know, the reality here is, Sagar, it's. It's easy for us to sit here and say, hey, Taco, all the way. Like, let's get the hell out of here. That's what's gonna be best for the US that's what's gonna be best for the war, for the world. This war is an utter and complete disaster. If you're Trump, and by the way, also if you are a member of the military brass, the deep state, you're ideologically committed to the US Empire. We have to acknowledge that's basically the end of the US Empire. Admitting defeat, admitting that we can't control the waterways. I mean, what are we as an empire if we aren't out there to secure free trade, trade and commerce around the world. If we have to acknowledge, no, we can't do this with Iran, even if we wanted to, they get to have a say. That is basically the end of US Empire. And so that's why even a lot of the military brass that had a lot of reservations going into this, which were expressed clearly, not forcefully enough to Trump, why they're still gonna be trying to figure this thing out and trying to come up with a solution. Okay, if we do some insane bombing campaign, if we do some sort of raid, maybe there's some sort of hacking, maybe we can take on a few more regime leaders. They're gonna throw a lot at the wall because they realize that it is kind of all on the line here. And they're ideologically committed to the continuance of the US Empire. And so that's why, in a lot of ways, them and Trump are in the same boat at this point.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right. That explains the $1.5 trillion military spending. Cause they're like, oh, we just have to spend even more on the exact same weapons that got us in the same situation that we're in right now. We could have more weapons. It wouldn't matter. It literally wouldn't matter. It wouldn't change anything about Iranian capitulation. 0. What it would change obviously is the American ability to defend other far fling parts of our empire. But this is going to create like the husbandry of resources, which is a disaster ultimately to the prestige and to the image cause it was inconceivable even to extreme military skeptics like me that we would be in this situation today. I mean all the script was written though, to be fair. When we look at the drone threat, when we look at the intercept, we talked about it here for years and years, from the Ukraine conflict to the operation, Operation Midnight Hammer, the reduction of Thaad, the script was there, but nobody expected, I think the third act to go in the direction that it ultimately did. So now what's going to happen? In my opinion, this like phase two style type thing where we have no war and no peace, it's going to happen for a very long period of time for exactly the situation that you just laid out. It's just like Afghanistan admitting defeat is so catastrophic to the image and prestige of the United States and its military that we will throw good money after bad 10 times over just to not have to admit defeat. And Trump will have to be brought to a crushing economic situation to ultimately recognize the de facto Iranian or Omani control of the Strait of Hormuz. Many the cranks of the people like us who are like, why are we in this? We will all be vindicated in the end, don't worry. But in the interim, like you said, there are very, very powerful people here in Washington, many of whom didn't even agree or want to launch the war in the first place, who are now like, we have to put it all on the line. It's very first World War mentality. You could see it through all ages and all warfare. Even though you have a useless and stupid situation, you're like, well, for the future, for us as a nation to be able to survive, we have to continue to do that. And that's how you end up in these prolonged and disastrous quagmires. Vietnam, perfect example, highly recommend everybody. If you read and look at the exact situation, from how you go to a few thousand military advisors to 500,000American troops on the ground, took five years. It's nothing. But the logic in which it all happened is exactly the way that it is right now. I don't think we'll end up with ground troops, at least in a prolonged occupation sense like we are with. But that doesn't make it any less catastrophic.

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[Becca Tilly or Tonya (Scrubbing In Podcast)]

This is Becca and Tanya from scrubbing in with Becca Tilly and Tanya. Rad.

[Krystal Ball]

Becca, can I ask you a question? How do I convince myself I need something before I buy it?

[Becca Tilly or Tonya (Scrubbing In Podcast)]

Oh, so we're doing that today.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, I'll be shopping online and suddenly I'm like, well technically this counts as self care.

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You're definitely not alone there.

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Right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And it could take years, years and years. So that's why we really need to buckle in. Let's put a four up here on the screen. This is very important. Also, you know, we were talking here a little bit about the empire. Well, it turns out that Saudi Crown Prince MBS is one of the main reasons that these attacks did not go forward. The kingdom, by the way, even released their readout of the call where they explicitly said the crown prince asked President Trump not to resume major airstrikes on Iran. You never see that out of the kingd of Saudi Arabia. What they see here is that Salman spoke to President Trump on Saturday, expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes because of course Iran had actually published a list of sites that would be struck in retaliation, many of them in Saudi Arabia, which would have sent oil prices absolutely skyrocketing. Quote, the Saudis expressed concern, asked for clarity about the plan of action. MBS urged Trump to de escalate and from launching the strikes. Apparently the Saudi Defense Minister, who I think is the brother known as KBS, came to Washington 13 hour flight for a single meeting just with The Vice President J.D. vance, in which he begged him, please do not go forward with these new strikes and then flew back to Saudi Arabia. That's how. 26 hours on a plane for a one hour meeting in which they saw the situation that dire that they couldn't even just pick up the phone. I think again, just underscoring.

[Krystal Ball]

But he's got a nice plane though. Sorry.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, he's got, he's got, he's definitely got a nice plane.

[Krystal Ball]

That softens the blow.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Let's not, let's not, you know, cry too many tears for the, for the rich princes of the House of Riyadh, but, you know, or the House of Saud. Sorry. But I do think it underscores just how much of a pain position that they are in. How the uae, so Saudi's in that position too, where remember they're exporting some oil. The UAE and Bahrain are apparently pissed off at the United States for not escalating the conflict. Cuz they're done, they're locked in right now. And they're also, I mean the UAE's not getting pounded as much, but Bahrain and Kuwait absolutely are. And they're like, hey, why have we been buying all these weapons? We need more interceptors. And Trump and them are like, yeah, you need interceptors, so does Ukraine and so do we. So basically we're the only ones getting them. Cause we're the ones who make it, which is what's making everybody rethink their alliance. But I do think, you know, to the empire point, when you, I mean imagine this, you have an empire of antiquity, you have the provinces of which you have guaranteed their security. You start a war which is disastrous for said provinces. And then the provinces I guess usually would say hey, you need to come and defend us. But when it gets revealed that you can't defend them, then of course you're gonna have to go back to the imperial capital and say please, please don't stop. Because you don't have the capacity to defend us. Which means that you're actually going to inflict pain. And that is, as you said, the beginning of the end. None of this will happen overnight. It happens over many, many years. But it is very easy, I think, at least in this position now, to say generally based upon the course of history, we know where this story is going to go. And none of it is good for the US ability to defend, quote unquote allies. And I mean I talk a lot here and I have for many years about NATO and all that. I don't care about Estonia, Latvia or any of the far flung post 1990s additions. But I do care a lot about Japan and South Korea, about the uk, I mean Australia, actual critical trading partners, allies of the United States. And right now we're in a situation where that's in question. And that's what I think should scare everybody.

[Krystal Ball]

Do you care about Ceyuta, Spain? Because a place I never knew existed,

[Saagar Enjeti]

didn't even know existed. Very interested in, never been. Now I gotta be honest, it is fascinating.

[Krystal Ball]

Totally. Yeah. No, I started going down that history rabbit hole too. We'll get to that in a minute. So just one last thing. In terms of the allies, the Saudis have enough sort of size and societal strength and position that I think they Feel like they'll be okay out of this war. They don't like the attacks. This is very bad for them, very bad for their economy, all of that stuff. And so that's why they're coming in like, hey, could we not do this? This hasn't worked out the way that you said it was gon work out because there was reporting that early on when Trump was saying, hey, it's going to be four days, no problem, we're going to take them out. It's going to be great. The Iranians have been a pain in your butt. Now you'll have more ascendants in the region. They were like, great, cool. When this hasn't gone the way they wanted. Now they want out. Now they want a deal. They want this to be done. They want to go back to sort of normal course of order. Not that that's entirely possible. Bahrain and UAE are more in the boat of sort of like the US Empire protectors. Like this is genuinely existential. UAE is barely a country. I mean it really quite a proper country. And their whole thing is built on their brand as this luxury respite for the global elite, the global money launderers to come and stay and enjoy and park their money. Being in a war zone is not part of that deal. So they've got a real existential problem. And then Bahrain has a problem as well because their leadership doesn't have a lot of legitimacy. You've got a lot of Shiites there who are sympathetic to Iran. So they have an existential issue as well. So I think for those countries, you can understand they're in this sort of like all or nothing place as well. Where to end the war now is going to be somewhat unacceptable for them because they've, you know, that threat will remain and that threat will loom and will undermine the very sort of underpinnings of their, of their states, such as they are. So I think that's part of why you see a different response there, there. Let's put a three up on the screen. You know, I'm not really sure what to make of this, but in terms of what the Iranians are up to or could be up to, there's a report from the New York Times and we've seen some other reporting that the Iranians have. It looks like potentially the Iranians have hacked US Water supply systems in seven different states that we know of, Minnesota being one, Michigan being the other. I don't think we know what the other five states are specifically. This is one of those saga where they say, well, it bears the hallmarks of an Iranian hack. We don't know for sure it's possible. You know, I take it sort of more seriously than perhaps I otherwise would for two reasons. Number one, cuz Trump wants to downplay it. Like if this was some sort of a, you know, an intel op from the US Government or from the Israelis, it feels like Trump would embrace it. Oh, yeah, they're coming after us. That's why we've got to attack them, we've got to neutralize the threat, etc. He has very much wanted to downplay these and even tried to blame the Minnesota government for hacking their own water system. Okay, sure. And then the other reason is because Tritha Parsi, of course we have a lot of respect for, thinks that it's possible that this was the Iranians as well as a sort of warning shot. They didn't do anything here that really caused problems. It was more of an announcement of their capabilities of, hey, you know, nice water supply system you have there connected to the Internet. Shame if something would happen to us. It again, I'm not sure and neither are the analysts who were quoted in this New York Times piece, but it's definitely something to consider and pay attention to because we feel very protected here in the US we have, you know, a lot of our own geographic advantages, which are tremendous. And we know that Iranian missiles can't reach our, our homeland, our shores here. It's a reminder that in a world that is completely interconnected, they still do have potential ways to disrupt life here as well and get at us and mess with us. And of course, we know that also from every time we go to the gas pump and see what the price is.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I am always skeptical of these types of stories. Everyone should be too. It does make sense in the way they trade. To put it in that it would be the horizontal escalation in terms of, you mess with our power plants, we're gonna try and mess with yours. And it has always been kind of a glaring cybersecurity problem that we have major holes and problems with our utility companies, energy. I mean, even in terms of our airlines, you know, United or American gets grounded every other week because of an IT problem. We don't know why, but that's hundreds of billions of dollars at stake if that we were to have a sustained shutdown. So it's very possible that it could be there. Obviously, we'll watch it. Like you said, too, Trump downplaying it does seem to actually make me think, hmm, maybe there was actually something there. Because if it were real or if it were something that, or sorry, if it weren't real, if it was like a manufactured thing to try and to escalate the war, then people who would want to use it as a pretext would certainly be crying. So we'll see. Knowing this administration, they may turn around and do that sometime in the future. All right, let's get to the military.

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[Becca Tilly or Tonya (Scrubbing In Podcast)]

This is Becca and Tanya from Scrubbing in with Becca Tilly and Tonya Rad.

[Krystal Ball]

Becca, can I ask you a question? How do I convince myself I need something before I buy it?

[Becca Tilly or Tonya (Scrubbing In Podcast)]

It. Oh, so we're doing that today?

[Krystal Ball]

Well, I'll be shopping online and suddenly I'm like, well technically this counts as self care.

[Becca Tilly or Tonya (Scrubbing In Podcast)]

You're definitely not alone there.

[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

That's the goal, right? Having tools that make your money work work with you.

[Becca Tilly or Tonya (Scrubbing In Podcast)]

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[Krystal Ball]

One of the things that we have learned from this war is what a failure the US basing strategy has been throughout the region. And now we have this extraordinary development we can put up here on the screen. After how many years have we been in Iraq because of this war? It appears that we are approaching an actual full withdrawal from Iraq as bases in the Kurdistan region face attacks from Iran and their proxies. Patriot air defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles and drones have already been removed, according to Almonitor and their sources. Let me go ahead and read you a little bit of this article. They say the US military is starting to draw down its last remaining forces from Iraq Station in the vicinity vicinity of Erbil's Airport in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. Well placed sources tell Almonitor Patriot Mobile air air to surface air defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles, drones and other airborne ENEM equipment have already been removed from the military compound. The pullout started last week and is ongoing with the bulk of the US forces and their heavy equipment out. All of the Patriot anti missile batteries had been redeployed to an undisclosed destination, they said, adding that other defensive weapons systems remained in place as of the time of publication. Regional officials claimed the pullout was saga routine and in line with the US commitment to withdraw all its forces from Iraq by a September 30th deadline that was agreed with Baghdad. So I think we can read the tea leaves here. And I mean this is pretty extraordinary. Basically Iran wants us out of the region and in a way we are being forced to oblige because we can no longer protect our forces throughout the region. We have to marshal our resources as we run low on all sorts of missiles and missile interceptors and all the rest. So we have to strategically reposition to make sure we can protect, I guess, the most vital assets at this point. And so after all of this, it is now the Iran war that has actually forced us to fully withdraw from Iraq where we never should have been in the first place.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well yeah, that's kind of where I was gonna start. It's like, well let's actually look at the history of this base of Kurdistan. This was one of the jump off points between the United States and isis, where we fought side by side with the United States Special Forces and a lot of the Kurdish troops that helped defeat ISIS both in Iraq and in Syria. But then let's actually take a step back and even further and let's think about why these bases and all of that have to be driven out in the first place. Is the truth is we invaded this country of Iraq and yeah, we depose Saddam Hussein and we turned it by our own admission, into an Iranian proxy state in which the Iraqi Prime Minister has had to come here to Washington and effectively demand, as of a few weeks ago, that we leave. And remember, that was an agreement that was agreed to in the Oval Office in which Trump and the Iraqi PM said, yes, the United States is going to exist the country, but it's going to do so not on terms that are ours and not in terms of a quote, unquote, prosperous Iraq that has the ability to thrive as a democracy, as George W. Bush and all of that sold to us, but one in which there are major Iranian military proxies which have the ability to shoot drones at American service members. And don't forget this is also where multiple service members died in a mysterious air crash of those two tankers. Let's not forget that. And there's still a lot of questions that surround it. In addition to just last week that unexploded drone that actually was exploded by some EOD tech and ended up killing a nearby American service member that happened in Iraq alongside those three casualties that also happened in Jordan. So we still have forces that are there on the ground having to leave basically unceremoniously. And in the midst of all of this, especially not on our own terms, does demonstrate ultimately the benefit to Iran and to their strategy. This also comes on the heels of the emptying we've seen previously of the Al Adid Air Base in Doha, which was a huge base of operations. I used to live very nearby. It see C17s and these transport planes that were coming in. I was there in 2008, they would be coming in all hours of the day bringing in supplies and troops and all this other stuff for the war in Iraq, to have to abandon that for the drone or the missile threat is crazy. We also have seen similar situation in Kuwait and Bahrain in which the air defense either was knocked out or non existent troops having to go sleep in hotels. So we've seen this now time and time again where being driven out not just of bases, but of the ability to use them for the function that we ultimately wanted which is the major problem. And I think that you compare this, as we've talked about previously, with the military failure. The truth is we are living through what is technically called, like, a revolution in military affairs. I won't go into all of it, but it is a fascinating intellectual exercise in which, you know, the ways in which warfare is conducted and understood is completely changed. I've talked here previously about the battleship and World War II and how what changed about the. What changed in the theory of the battleship to ability to project power and how that was blown up in a single second whenever aircraft were able to sink them in a matter of seconds. It completely changed the understanding of naval warfare at that time. Well, this time it also happened in the 1990s. I won't again bore everybody with the details, but the drone threat and the missile threat in particular, along with the interceptor math and the exchange between those two, is another one I think that we're all living through. And I saw some discussion about that today, and you can actually see it with B3, which is really shocking. I mean, first of all, when we read this headline, some might even ask, why are we protecting Israel in the first place? But the top US General in the region has now warned the Pentagon, quote, he lacks sufficient forces to protect Israel. He says that a shortage of Navy destroyers used to defend against Iranian ballistic missile attacks will now have to force the head of European Command to prioritize the US Homeland. Instead, he says that the Pentagon this week, he lacks sufficient naval forces to continue protecting Israel from incoming ballistic missiles, illustrating how the ongoing Iran war has imposed the constraints on the military, and that he will be forced to choose between defense of the U.S. quote, Homeland, as in bases, over that of Israel, who, like some others, spoke on the condition of anonymity here to the Washington Post. But what I think this demonstrates, first of all, is that same empire problem that we have previously. Don't forget that we had a situation where the United States was expending more of our interceptors than Israel was expending of their own, even though they have them. Why? For no reason that has ever been revealed here to the public. Let's not forget that in the Operation Midnight Hammer, in 13 days, the United States expended 25% of the entire THAAD inventory, 25% of everything that we had, just to shoot down missiles that were headed towards Israel, not towards the United States. So see now how the defense of Israel, not just in terms of them dragging us into this war or being complicit, et cetera, convincing Trump to do it. But even just the sheer military defense of them, what it has cost us and allies that are actually meaningful and helpful to our country. I think when you pour these two things together or pair these two things together and then show these Gulf allies, which, by the way, you know, I'm not some big guy, but if you're gonna look at it on a balance sheet, you'd say, hey, we get a hell of a lot more from Kuwait or Bahrain or any of these places than we do from Israel, this tiny little country with no even oil or in terms of our trading. And especially if you were to put them together, you would obviously prioritize one over the other. And I'm not just the one saying that. Remember, we even played Saudis on their own television in the midst of the war who were furious, saying they're defending Israel, but they can't even defend us. It's such a crazy situation.

[Krystal Ball]

Total. I mean, let's just pause on the wild nature of even having to say, well, we've got a tough choice on our hands. Defend Israel or defend the homeland. Like, how is this even being framed as. I don't know, which way should we go? But it shows you how committed they are to the endless support of this small country in the Middle east, which is, I think, quite insane. Quite insane at this point. Let's go ahead and put B2 up on the screen just to show you of the, the state of play here in terms of the economy. Uh, Trump says the Iran talks are to resume after the US Called off a major attack. Um, oil prices are down after the latest taco. So once again the market's taking seriously whatever Trump is saying here and buying himself some more time. Let's also put before up on the screen. This goes to what we're speaking about previously about how locked in the deep state and the military brass is. You've got a, a US Commander who, who plans, claims he's got a two week plan to escalate strikes in Iran. The idea here just basically being let's bomb them more and bomb them harder and maybe that'll work. This is also something that was leaked to the Wall Street Journal prior to Trump backing down. So I think this could also potentially be seen as part of just the, you know, using the weaponizing the press to try to make a credible threat against Iran that would hopefully cause some sort of, of, you know, create some sort of leverage for the US in negotiations and force Iran to concede things that they have been unwilling to concede. This Obviously didn't work. But I also don't doubt, Sagar, that there are plenty of people inside of the Pentagon who find coming to a deal that acknowledges defeat at this point to be completely unacceptable and are floating a lot of wild plans. Wild, desperate plans. Because wild and desperate plans are all we have at this point.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's very true. You know, I also think we should pair some of this with the sheer insanity of what it actually looked like. Like what? This war. If Trump had actually pressed the button and said it would. Let's go to B4, for example. This was the actual plan all leaked out to the Wall Street Journal. It was a two week plan to escalate strikes as Trump reiterates for Iran's missile attack. The question is how long the new air campaign will last. The CENTCOM commander had pushed a 10 to 14 day intensive airstrike aimed to cripple Iran's missile capacity, despite warnings that the US Is running low on defense munitions. Basically what Admiral Cooper had been pushing, who is the leader of centcom, was, well, what we can do is we can cripple the Iranian ballistic missile capacity a little bit more if you give me all the spare munitions and interceptors in the entire arsenal. That was his plan. And in addition to that, Trump was also saying we would hit some of these critical infrastructure. But one of the things that we learned after the pause of the. Or after the pause, or whatever you wanna call the initial ceasefire was even though we'd said we destroyed 95% of Iran's ballistic missile capacity, it turns out the number was more like 30%. And then that 30%, a lot of it was able to be dug out, as now evidenced by the fact that they were able to hit one of our bases, which killed several US service members, and have been able to use them all across the region in the interim. So I do think that, you know, when we talked previously about CENTCOM asking for unconventional ideas, this idea and this plan is so ludicrous in its actual proposal to basically just continue what already had been done and to, quote, finish the job in terms of the targets, as if those targets had done anything, what they were supposed to do in the first place, which was bring down the regime, even in conjunction with all of these insane Israeli airstrikes. So I just wanna make sure people know that's what the actual plan was on the table.

[Becca Tilly or Tonya (Scrubbing In Podcast)]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

And quite to the contrary, I just strengthened the government, by all accounts, as best we can tell from the outside, put the last element in this block up on the screen. Here, guys. B6, this is just important to note where we are at this point. This is from the New York Times. It's framed under what they call news analysis, which is somewhere between reporting and opinion. This is Stephen Erlinger, who they say has covered issues related to Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1978. And the analysis here is going to be very similar to things you've been hearing on this show for quite a while. They say in Iran, the US Appears headed for a strategic defeat. Allies fear. With none of President Trump's aims accomplished and the strait of hormones closed, US Allies see dysfunction and vulnerability from the war. To see this sort of analysis in the New York Times, you know, which is very hawkish, very pro American empire out there, is, I think, a significant development in and of itself and a sign of the times of how undeniable the defeat has become in this war. And, you know, I like how they frame it in terms of our allies fear. But very much the, you know, the writing is on wall here in terms of what we've been unable to accomplish and how on every objective that we claimed during this war that we had, we have gone backwards from where we started. So everything that you know, whether it's Iranian pursuit of a nuclear weapon, whether it's wanting to topple the regime, whether it's wanting to back up the protesters in the streets, whether it's in terms of the Strait of Hormuz, on every single one of these metrics that have been floated at times as objectives of the war, we have undeniably gone in the opposite direction and have much, much less leverage in order to secure the aims than we did before we started this foolish war. And that is now being openly acknowledged in mainstream publications like the New York Times.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yep, exactly right, Yeah. I mean, to the extent that it's just saying what a lot of people already know, it's not actually important for what it says, but it's important for where it appears at the front page on Sunday. And that just means things are a lot worse once they get to that point. You can just bet that it's actually much, much worse in terms of what all of us on the leading edge can see. All right, shall we get to Max Miller?

[Krystal Ball]

Indeed.

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