8/4/26: AIPAC Set For Defeat In MI, US Munitions Shortage, Israeli Settler Interview

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — August 4, 2026

Overview

This episode delivers deep coverage of a pivotal Michigan Democratic primary, the shifting tides in Democratic Party politics, the consequence of massive outside money in primaries (especially AIPAC’s spending), America’s dwindling missile stockpile amid the Iran war, war and peace dynamics in the Middle East, and the normalization of extreme rhetoric and violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The hosts are joined by polling analyst Logan Phillips to break down electoral trends, and the episode features notable interview clips with candidate Abdul El-Sayed, Rep. Cori Bush, and an unsettling segment from an Israeli settler. The tone oscillates between analytical, incredulous, and impassioned — with hosts frequently underscoring the historic nature and dangers inherent in these topics.

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Michigan Democratic Primary: Progressive Surge vs. Establishment (02:37–19:47)

Main Marquee: Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens (02:37–08:14)

• Massive Outside Spending: Stevens has received $80M+, dwarfing El-Sayed, mainly from AIPAC and affiliated groups.
• Logan Phillips’ Analysis: “I don't think it's working at all… El Said gained 20% in the last few weeks… clear favorite. In my personal primary model, 90% chance to win.” (06:04)
• Collapse of Traditional Endorsements: Despite support from Governor Whitmer and others, “It seems to have basically had a non existent impact on the race.” (06:46 – Crystal)
• Voter Disaffection: Voters want genuine political and societal change; progressives embody change more credibly than establishment candidates.
• Centrality of Israel in the Primary: El-Sayed’s criticism of funding for Israel vs. underfunded US public programs became a flashpoint.

Notable Clip: Abdul El-Sayed on MSNBC (08:35–10:33)

“The idea that somehow we are going to use the specter of anti Semitism to defend what a foreign government is doing actually does a deep disservice to the well being of Jewish Americans in this country… on principle, I don't think we should be sending unconditional foreign military aid to any government.”
(09:03, Abdul El-Sayed)

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Trends Shaping Democratic Primaries (10:33–19:47)

• Rise of Issue-Driven Politics: Progressive candidates are succeeding by delivering clear agendas (money in politics, Medicare for All, opposition to unconditional military aid).
• Negative Impact of Establishment Attacks: Stevens’ attacks on El-Sayed as anti-Jewish or “cool kids on the Internet” have flopped, particularly with youth and grassroots voters. National progressive endorsements (Sanders, AOC, Warren) resonate more than local figures.
• Strategic Advertising: “He very cleverly turned that and weaponized it against her and made it a problem for her that she was getting all of this money.” (16:47 – Ryan Grim)
• Other Key Michigan Contests: MI-7 draws attention with Will Lawrence (Sunrise), Bridget Brink (ex-ambassador), Matt Macedam (security). National endorsements matter more for younger, left-leaning Dems.

Memorable Quote

“The most successful leftist candidates have really positioned themselves as the most pro-American because they're saying, ... we're gonna spend [tax dollars] here at home.”
(33:44 – Ryan Grim)

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National Implications: Cori Bush, AIPAC Money, and Progressive Prospects (22:19–27:23)

• Cori Bush Interview: She reflects on losing her seat in 2024 due to AIPAC-fueled spending and how the electorate is now much more attuned to outside influence.

  “That was the case in 2024. People did not know who AIPAC was... now that people know... people were so angry when they found out where the money came from.”
  (23:07, Cori Bush)

• Missouri Rematch: Bush’s prospects are tougher outside incumbency and under a heavy money disadvantage, but progressives are more organized and aware.

• Election Night Metrics: Watch for turnout among Black and older voters; Abdul El-Sayed’s ability to reach beyond educated, young voters would redefine the narrative of the progressive base.

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“Woke” Baggage and General Election Risks: Francesca Hong Segment (28:29–33:44)

• Debate Over Progressive Electability: Case study: Francesca Hong (Dem. WI Gov. primary) criticized for old “cancel Thanksgiving” tweets.
• Handling Controversy: Hong gives a nuanced, but muddled defense — hosts critique her media style: “She is way better when it comes to giving public speeches. She clearly gets nervous and gets stuck in these word salads.” (32:13 – Logan Phillips)
• Lesson: The winning lane merges progressive policy with strong pro-American rhetoric, downplaying “culture war” distractions.

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U.S. Munitions Crisis: Iran War Exposes U.S. Weakness (37:00–50:19)

Breaking News: U.S. Out of Long-Range Missiles (37:00–42:32)

• The Report: U.S. has used “virtually all” of its long-range precision missiles (ATACMS, PrSM) in the five-month Iran war.
• Strategic Danger: No replacements until 2027; reliance on these munitions due to lack of air supremacy. Tomahawk stocks also severely depleted.
• Political Repercussions: Trump forced into peace overtures partly out of necessity, not strength.

Quote

“What can you even say about this? Where does all the money go?... the US military... cannot even sustain this long of a conflict and is thoroughly defeated.”
(41:07, Ryan Grim)

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Realities of the Diplomatic Endgame (44:49–52:17)

• Reality Check: Trump claims “talks” with Iran, but both Iranian and neutral sources deny anything substantive. Oman/Iran may work out oil route logistics.
• Markets and Propaganda: The only “tools” left are market jawboning, muddled press conferences, and fragile third-party arrangements.

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Israeli Settler Ideology and Gaza-War Aftermath (54:43–70:03)

Israeli Settler Interview: Shocking Normalization of Violence (55:02–56:25)

Quote

"One Jewish life, it's 10 million [Palestinian lives]... God chooses us... The Bible is the authorizing that this land belongs to us... Yes, but the God not write in the Bible the international law."
(55:02–56:25, Israeli Settler on BBC)

• Hosts’ Response: “This is the unvarnished face... of the ethno-supremacist ideology that undergirds the state of Israel currently.” (57:08 – Ryan Grim)
• Mainstreaming of Extremism: Formerly fringe settler attitudes now reflected at policy level; normalization of brutality, including the government’s public consideration of bizarre proposals (like using crocodiles to guard prisoners).

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“Peace Deals” as Political Theater (59:45–68:38)

• Gaza Ceasefire "Deal": Despite public claims, Israeli withdrawal won’t happen; ongoing civilian deaths even after supposed agreements.
  • Since ceasefire: “they have killed more Palestinians than were killed as than Israelis who were killed on October 7th... including 270 children.” (Approx 61:51 – Crystal quoting DropSite)
• Policy Incoherence: U.S. unable or unwilling to enforce its own deals. The immediate breaking of agreements showcases U.S. loss of leverage.

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Big Picture: How U.S. Power & Ethics Have Deteriorated

• Hosts’ Lament: U.S. now mimics the callousness of its clients/partners; shocking acts (like bombing a house with a 2,000-lb bomb) pass without note or investigation.
• Consequences: Far from just “damage to reputation,” these events will radicalize generations and foster new dangers.

Notable Quotes

“We're just sewing more danger and terror and chaos and war in the world and it is unacceptable.”
(70:03 – Ryan Grim)

“We had years to plan for exactly a crisis moment like this. From 2022 onward. Biden squandered all of that. He basically gave the entire barn over to Ukraine. And now we've got nothing left.”
(42:32 – Crystal)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Michigan Primary/AIPAC Influence & Electoral Trends: 02:37–19:47
• Cori Bush & Money in Politics: 22:19–27:23
• Francesca Hong/"Cancel Thanksgiving" & Progressive Framing: 28:29–33:44
• US Missile Shortage & Iran War Analysis: 37:00–50:19
• Israeli Settler Interview & Gaza/Peace Deal Fallout: 54:43–70:03

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Takeaways

• The Democratic electorate is shifting radically — rejecting old endorsements, responding to clear progressive agendas, and punishing outside money.
• AIPAC’s aggressive spending is now widely recognized (and resented), impacting races differently than in previous cycles.
• America’s Iran war has exposed massive strategic vulnerabilities and undercut U.S. “superpower” credibility; U.S. foreign policy influence is in sharp decline.
• Extreme ethno-nationalist rhetoric among Israeli settlers is no longer fringe and is reflected in policy, with horrifying normalization of violence and dehumanization.
• The episode blends harsh realism, moral urgency, and sharp skepticism of both establishment talking points and self-serving political narratives.

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For Further Analysis

• Join Breaking Points’ election night livestream for real-time breakdowns and polling.
• For those interested in the global strategic context, keep an eye out for the promised foreign policy segment with Daniel Besner.

Transcript

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[Crystal]

Hey guys, Sager and Crystal here.

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[Crystal]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning everybody. Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have?

[Ryan Grim]

Crystal Indeed we do. It is Election Day in Michigan, Missouri and a few other spots around the country. Abdul Al Said versus Haley Stevens being the main draw. Logan Phillips is going to join us with a full breakdown of the polls and what we can expect tonight. We've got some bombshell new reporting just out this morning that says the US Is nearly out of all long range precision missiles. This comes amidst a very precarious moment obviously for the conflict, so we'll break that down. An Israeli settler has said that one Jewish life is worth millions of Palestinians and Israel is certainly acting like it. As we speak, the Flock CEO is saying that the activist organization deflock, which explains where their cameras are located, is a terrorist organization. We are currently intervening in the Japanese currency market. It's a real sign of the global economic fragility that the Iran war has caused. And a foreign policy expert is gonna join us to explain his view of the emerging New World Order. It's a very interesting one. I'm looking forward to speaking with him.

[Crystal]

Yeah, Daniel Besner, shout out to him. He sent me his book. We've been corresponding Twitter friends for some time, so I'm excited to get him

[Ryan Grim]

here on Quincy Institute guy too, by the way.

[Crystal]

That's exactly right. Thank you to everybody who has been supporting the and we have, as we promised yesterday, a big announcement. Our free month trial is back. So let's put the graphic up there on the screen this time. It's actually even easier. Don't even need a promo code, you just go to breakingpoints.com, you can sign up either for a monthly or a yearly subscription. 30 days, completely free. You can cancel literally at any time. So check it out. You get access, of course to our full newsletter and be able to support our show. We've had so many new people who have joined the show since we last ran this promotion and so we're excited for everybody to take advantage. Millions and millions of people been joining us and we're very, very happy to have you. So please go ahead and sign up again completely for free, 30 days, either monthly or yearly. Literally all you do is hit subscribe now and it's already included there in your checkout. So it couldn't be easier for you to be able to take advantage. BreakingPoints.com again. If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. Listening to this podcast please share an episode with a friend. Really helps other people for find the show. But Logan is gonna join us now in the studio to break all of this down. Let's get to it. Turning now to our elections before we get to our great analyst Logan, we are going to of course have a live stream here on our channel. Let's put it up here on the screen. Both Crystal and Ryan will be live 7:30pm Eastern Time on our channel to look at all of the election results coming in from across the country. But as I said, Logan Phillips, race to the White House, our great friend here of the show joins us now in the studio. Logan, it's good to see you. Thank you so much. Joining us to break all of this craziness down. I can't believe it's been so long since we last saw each other, but we are very glad to have you here in the studio.

[Logan Phillips]

Hey, so great to be back on with you guys.

[Crystal]

You're very welcome. All right, so let's go ahead and kick off. Crystal, what do you think?

[Ryan Grim]

So, of course, Logan, the marquee race tonight is Abdul Said versus Haley Stevens. That Michigan Democratic Senate primary. A flood of money has come in on Haley Stevens side. Let's put a three up on the screen. It's not that Abdul hasn't had money. It's just that it's in comparison to the $80 million that have come in overall here, the vast majority of it for Haley Stevens. Is it working though? What are the polls saying about who is likely to prevail in that particular race tonight?

[Logan Phillips]

Yeah, I don't think it's working at all. I mean, maybe to some degree and it has helped make the race somewhat competitive. But we've seen voters break strongly in the last few weeks from a point where Stevens was down by 3% to El Said gained 20% in the last few weeks and Steven has only gained 10. So at this point he's coming in as the clear favorite. In my personal primary model, 90% chance to win and betting markets have it even higher. So it would require. We were talking about this earlier, a 2016 style upset like Bernie Sanders had against Hillary Clinton. But this time around we have lots of polling instead of one poll that have to be wrong. So he's in great shape.

[Crystal]

Logan, could you just talk generally about some of the reason why these establishment Politicians endorsing these figures doesn't seem to be having the impact that it previously had. Like, for example, you had Governor Whitmer, you had, you know, the outgoing Senator Gary Peters endorsing this race. It seems to have basically had a non existent impact on the race. That's very uncommon previously. Endorsements actually used to be, you know, at least somewhat of a sign of strength and of ability to confer, you know, legitimacy on that person. But this time around doesn't seem to have done that at all. Why do you think that is?

[Logan Phillips]

It's just a fundamental change of what primary voters are looking for. And that's why we're seeing a lot more candidates, like El said, do so well. Voters on the Democratic primaries, they're upset at two things. Obviously they're upset at Donald Trump and they want change. But you can't rein like you did last term where it's about fighting Donald Trump because the group they're second most unhappy with is Democrats. And maybe in 2025 that was about not fighting Trump effectively. But now people have come to the conclusion, or at least a lot of these voters, that the way Democrats have been governing hasn't been enough to change the fundamental problems they have with society. So it's not just they want society changed, they want the political changed. And I don't necessarily think outside of young voters that they're inherently that much pro progressive socialist candidates. I think it's that they want candidates that are going to say they're going to make changes and the socialist and progressive candidates have the best ready made playbook from that from day one.

[Crystal]

Yeah, I think that's a good point.

[Ryan Grim]

Also, obviously, Logan, Israel has become a central dividing line in among Democratic Party elites. It's not so much a dividing line among the base who want to see a different relationship. Abdul's views on Israel have been a major focus during this race. Let's go ahead and take a listen to some questioning of him on MSNBC and how he responded.

[MSNBC Interviewer]

Her campaign has been largely and loudly populist, but also anti Zionist. And you've sort of married those two things, equating funding for Israel with underfunding health care, for example. Are you worried that that framing juxtaposing the Jewish funding for the Jewish state against the needs of, in your own words, our own people, echoes an old anti Semitic trope?

[Abdul El Said]

Let me just be very, very clear. You know, who benefits from guaranteed health care in this country? Jewish Americans. The idea that somehow we are going to use the specter of anti Semitism to defend what a foreign government is doing actually has, does a deep disservice to the well being of Jewish Americans in this country. Judaism and the Jewish people are a light unto the world. Beautiful faith, beautiful people. The contributions that they've made to this country alone are staggering. And I'm looking forward to standing with the Jewish community against anti Semitism. After all, anti Semitism and Islamophobia are one in the same and we need to take them on. But we cannot sit idly by and ask why is it that our $3.3 billion a year at baseline is used to fund apartheid at baseline, genocide over the last several years, a war we have no business fighting with. The attempt to annex the southern part of a neighboring country and then wonder why our kids schools look like they did 50 years ago.

[MSNBC Interviewer]

The reality of this made that same trade off argument with regards to other items in the US's $800 billion.

[Abdul El Said]

Oh, I have. No, no, I have. You just don't cover it. I'll say the same thing about the money we send to Egypt, which is where my, my family comes from. So if you want to go ahead and call me anti Egyptian, go ahead and do that. But the reality is, is that on principle, I don't think we should be sending unconditional foreign military aid to any government because none of us actually pay

[MSNBC Interviewer]

off or on principle. Then are you against ethno religious states

[Abdul El Said]

writ large on principle? I absolutely am.

[Ryan Grim]

So I think you see a couple things in that clip. I mean, number one, I think you see he's a very talented political athlete there, handles those questions well. I think that sort of framing has really only helped him in the race because of how strongly the Democratic base feels about these issues at this point. And it's not just him. You look just at the state of Michigan, you've got Will Lawrence, who looks like effectively issued in his primary, also lefty candidate, you got Donovan McKinney, who is running against an incumbent Democrat and again looks very much like he's going to be able to prevail there. You've got Cori Bush, who has a shot at a comeback in Missouri against Wesley Bell. And of course this comes on the heels of other victories for candidates who have been, you know, avowedly anti Zionist or at least want a significant change in the relationship with regard to Israel. So how central has this become for the Democratic base? How are they viewing this?

[Logan Phillips]

Yeah, I think it's, I think it's been huge. And you said that the establishment is pretty united on this I honestly think most Democratic primary voters are as well, but just in the other direction. And I think that there's something to be said. It's not an easy thing to do. That El said, and we've seen this with Mayor Mamdani in New York City to reframe the way that we talk about this. Right. Because there are a lot of people in the establishment, whenever they're senators or their reporters, who will frame the context of Israel and Gaza in a way that just feels completely unrelated to the reality on the ground where, you know, bombs have been used to kill tens of thousands of civilians. And we saw this when you guys were interviewing Senator Slotkin a year ago. There's a massive discomfort for these, for a lot of these folks who care about genocides and mass atrocities everywhere else in the world, but have just this cognitive dissonance on this issue when you state the facts cleanly, I think it just makes basic sense to voters that it's unacceptable for us to be responsible for this type of carnage.

[Crystal]

Yeah. The other thing is that Haley Stevens has run a very bizarre campaign. She recently attacked Abdul Syed, saying that he hates Jewish Americans. She's been attacking him as doing things with cool kids on the Internet, which is clearly like a swipe, I guess, shows like ours or other influencers, Democratic influencer, people like Hasan Piker. Here's her recently attacking El Sayad on these grounds. Let's take a listen. We'll get your reaction.

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Okay. Some of you have seen there's those cool kids on the Internet, they're doing the cool kid chatter. Some of them might be the coastal elites making fun of how I talk. Not okay, not okay, says my governor. But let's be real. They're making fun of Michigan. They're thinking they're better than us. And what they don't know is I am your voice. And their jokes and their criticism only makes me fight harder.

[Crystal]

There's a lot going on there beyond the statements. Try to be serious. But you know, to my earlier point, you got Jim Clyburn standing right behind her, right. One of the most powerful Democratic establishment figures in the nation, probably single handedly more responsible for Biden becoming president than any other figure. They're currently trying to move the Democratic primary to South Carolina, his home state, to be the number one first state to give the momentum to a more establishment candidate. You had Gretchen Whitmer off camera, the sitting governor. As I just said, she has leaned heavily with a lot of support from these super pacs and others. Why do you think ultimately that this kind of homecore Michigan, it's like outsiders, I guess, people like us in Washington or wherever Hasan lives, California are coming in into our state. Why is this not working? It's very traditional. Would work in a white working class state like Michigan, battleground state as well. What do you think?

[Logan Phillips]

Yeah, I think that voters may appreciate some of these people. In Clyburn's case, this guy has extreme power in certain areas. Very powerful in South Carolina where voters really trust his opinion, very powerful of other establishment members and in Congress, not so powerful of regular primary voters outside the state. So it's more of a signal to other members to back her then I think he's gonna be a heavyweight to influence things. But in Wimmer's case, look, yeah, she still popular. She is popular. A little less so after this endorsement actually, at least in one poll. But I think voters, a lot of them are saying, hey, we appreciate you, but we're also looking for some changes. It's not that it's a full sail rejection of every member of the establishment. It's sort of sometimes for some folks it absolutely is. For some other people it's sort of a yes. And that in the same way that there were plenty of Barack Obama supporters that wanted Bernie Sanders to be president, it wasn't a rejection of him. They just wanted some things that aren't getting taken care of to be addressed.

[Crystal]

Good point.

[Ryan Grim]

To that point, let's put a 8 up on the screen here. We've got some more details about why respondents in this poll backed Abdul. And you can see the few things that jump out at you are money, Medicare and support. And people should know his. His tagline is money out of politics, money in your pocket and Medicare for all. So clearly his message landed with people because they are citing exactly the lines that he was pushing for his tagline for the campaign. And the most common themes mentioned behind these individual words that were pulled out is under money, getting money out of politics, putting money in your pocket. Again, that is his tagline. Not taking money from corporate PACs, keeping tax dollars in America rather than overseas grassroots small dollar fundraising for Medicare. Obviously Medicare for all and his medical background and then support the fact he had endorsements from Bernie Sanders, aoc, Elizabeth Warren, the UAW and grassroots support that made a difference. The more national endorsements it seems actually hit harder than those local endorsements. But I think this gives a good window into one of the other problems that centrists have struggled with is there was a very clear agenda and platform from Abdul, not just with regard to Israel, but to these central themes of his campaign, of what he cares about and what he's going to do. And meanwhile, you've got Haley Stevens talking about, you know, cool kids on the Internet and just talking exclusively about these powerful figures that are backing her. Um, it also seems like to me, Logan, in these responses from Abdul supporters, that I think some of the money that came in for her really backfired, you know, as people are getting flooded with these ads. Abdul had a very smart strategy in their debate, saying, hey, in the next commercial break, you're gonna see probably 2, 3 ads for my opponent. And I think he very cleverly turned that and weaponized it against her and made it a problem for her that she was getting all of this money.

[Logan Phillips]

Yeah, I don't think he's gonna be the last one to use this. It's sort of like a Jedi mind trick. Even though I think it's true that he's conditioning and preparing people for these attack ads now, they have to be paying enough attention to hear him. But he has done that. He's done some counter ads, even if they're not as well funded, where he highlights where some of the money is coming from. And I think this stuff helps narrow how much damage it does. Maybe it doesn't get rid of it entirely because 80 million is a lot. And I do think it's had effect on the general electorate because you don't normally have 85 million in a Democratic primary dumped in you to attack you in the middle of July. But it's something that I wouldn't be surprised if we see a presidential primary candidate do, too. When you're going to see ads from health care companies trying to sell you on an alternative to what some of the candidates are talking about, Whether they're talking about Medicare for All wants it or Medicare for All and just a little wink to the camera and say, hey, maybe we'll get a little text from one of their campaign staffers and say, you just saw this text. Just a signal of what they're already willing to do. Do against us.

[Crystal]

Yeah, I think that's a good point. Let's put a nine up here on the screen. If you tell us a little bit about some of these other Michigan races, where things stand. You got Michigan 1, Michigan 7, Michigan 11, Michigan 13. These are some of the other progressive kind of upstart candidates. Any of that. You can pick and choose any of these and where you see things because they are contested Democratic primaries.

[Logan Phillips]

Yeah, I think Michigan's seventh is the most interesting, you have three, like, pretty impressive candidates. You have Will Lawrence, who has helped create the Sunrise movement. You have the former ambassador to Ukraine running, Bridget Brink. And then you have Matt macedam who carried the nuclear football while advising. I remember if it was President Biden or Trump or Obama. Right. And I think what we're seeing in some of these races, especially for candidates on the left, is endorsements matter to some degree for candidates, right. For voters. And I think also, like the people endorse the candidate, they think it's going to win. So it's a signal of who's going to win. But I think that, like young voters who are more on the left tend to be looking at these endorsements a lot more seriously, partly because they're newer to this, partly because it's a real signal about who they can trust. And so I've been noticing that, like AOC Bernie Sanders, endorsement seems to matter in some of these races more than lots of local heavyweight endorsements with similar big names.

[Crystal]

We've noticed the same thing. Very true.

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[Ryan Grim]

It's not just Michigan with elections tonight. We're also keeping an eye on Missouri where there's a rematch between former Congresswoman Cori Bush. It was unseated by Wesley Bell. So they are going up against each other. Now. Ryan interviewed Cori Bush last week and asked her if she felt like it was a different day in the Democratic Party now because at the time of that primary, her opponent, Wesley Bell, was funded by millions of dollars from aipac. He is again this time as well. It became one of the most expensive primary fights in American history and it was successful. And so he asked her if she felt like now the Democratic electorate was more attuned to the money, this money from AIPAC in particular and their allied group and whether that was going to make a difference in her race. Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of that.

[Cori Bush]

That was the case in 2024. People did not know who AIPAC was. Some have said, you know, I've heard about them, but I really didn't know, you know, that they would get involved in your, you know, in someone's election. And now that people know. So it took what happened to Jamaal Bowman and I for people to really see what happened. Because after Jamal and I and I lost our even though years before you had the same thing happen to Nina Turner. And then there were other people who in between that time where AIPAC got involved in those races. But because of the amount of money spent and because it was back to back here, especially with the genocide happening in Gaza people were so angry when they found out where the money came from. When I say this community was angry to the point to where in a town hall that Wesley Bell was holding the community, the. The majority of those questions were about. About his affiliation with APAC and about funding.

[Ryan Grim]

So she feels like it's a night and day difference. I don't think there's been a lot of polling in this race. I've been looking for it. The last poll that came out had Wesley Bell maintaining a narrow lead over her. How do you see the dynamics here?

[Logan Phillips]

Yeah, and that also was by Cori Bush's team. So it's hard to know if it was reliable or not. I think Cori Bush would win if we had the same situation this year when she was the incumbent. It's going to be a little tougher now, but definitely has a shot. It's like how powerful are these dynamics that she could win? I mean, the way AIPAC does, right. Like these days anyway is they're very smart about how they run their ads. They focus on a weakness of the candidate they can exploit for. Abdul said even though it's not really based in truth, a lot of it has been trying to make him look like he's anti woman or anti Barack Obama and anti Michelle Obama, which I think by the way, if they end up endorsing him and campaigning with him, which I'm sure they will in the general, that could help get some of those voters back. But separate on specifically on this race, they attacked her for not voting for the infrastructure bill with Biden and that might still loom in voters minds because for Abdul said, A, he's a fantastic candidate but B, he's raised a ton of money himself. And even when you're getting outgunned with the amount of money being spent, if you've raised enough money and you have a winning message that can break through the gap doesn't mean nearly as much.

[Crystal]

Right.

[Logan Phillips]

So it's not always like a degree of ratio. It's like, are you both on the playing field? And like unquestionably Abdul Seed has been on the playing field in Michigan. I think the advantage is a little stronger here in this congressional race. Cory Booker hasn't quite. Cory Booker. I'm sorry, Corey. Bush hasn't quite caught the level of strength and momentum that he has to have this huge base of money to spend to counter it. So it's still going to be a tough race for her. I think she's an underdog, but definitely has a shot.

[Caitlin]

Okay.

[Klarna Advertiser]

All right.

[Crystal]

Very interesting. Just big picture, because you're always looking at trends and things. What are we looking for? So in terms of what's a good night, you know, for Elsa, is it just winning? Is it winning per his polls? Is it winning by 20? What are some of the other trends and other things that we're looking for? What demographic groups? We're looking at black voters, are we looking at older voters? Where should we be looking for? What's going to shock you? Not just in terms of wins, because it all just seems kind of going in one direction, but what's actually going to shock you in terms of wins, of a change in the electorate?

[Logan Phillips]

Yeah, I think will be interesting to see is, does Abdul Said's momentum carry through? Because he's coming into this primary having gained 20 points while Stevens justice gained 10.

[Chelsea Handler]

Right.

[Logan Phillips]

And there was a lot of undecided voters. So even though the polls have shown this directionally in taking a big lead, often what happens is the polls don't just stop there.

[Cori Bush]

Right.

[Logan Phillips]

They're always going to be a little behind. So he could end up getting a much bigger lead in this race. And so to some degree, they'll be reflected in turnout.

[Klarna Advertiser]

Right.

[Logan Phillips]

If this race was really close, I'd really be looking at black turnout specifically because that's where Stevens has really targeted her electoral strategy and campaigns ads. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some persuasion with some of these voters by Abdul Seed and he ends up doing better. Now, my personal model has him winning by 11, but it wouldn't surprise me if he does a little bit better.

[Crystal]

Got it.

[Caitlin]

All right.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Crystal]

Interesting.

[Ryan Grim]

And I'll just say that I think, you know, this is going to be a very important race in terms of setting the battle lines between the centrists and the progressive wings of the party. And so, you know, one of the big narrative destroyers would be if Abdel Abdul Asayed, if he was able to win black voters, that would be a major narrative violation. But even if he does really well, one of the knocks on that wing of the party has been, oh, they just. It's just like, you know, educated white young people who like them. Clearly, that is no longer the case. And obviously, with Michigan being a swing state, it also shows that the appeal goes far beyond liberal urban enclaves like New York City or Philadelphia or Denver, Colorado. So I think that's part of why tonight is so significant. Guys, Logan is going to be joining us on that live stream, so he'll have his eyes on the numbers all across the country. There's a lot of interesting races and ballot initiatives and primaries that are happening. So we'll be all over it. Make sure to join us tonight at 7:30. And Logan, thank you for your time this morning.

[Crystal]

There's one, one last piece I got to give.

[Ryan Grim]

Oh, I thought you were, I thought you were going to skip it.

[Klarna Advertiser]

I can't say.

[Chelsea Handler]

So.

[Ryan Grim]

This is a Logan looking towards the general election. One of the questions for candidates who are on the left of the party is whether some of their woke 1.0 views are going to be a problem for them in a general election. And this is of course a big case that centrist Democrats are making. Oh my God, you can't nominate these people because they're going to be unelectable. One of the I think test primary test cases for this is Francesca Hong Kong, who looks set to dominate the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor. That race happens next week. She has some old tweets that are really quite something and unlike Abdul took the strategy of I'm going to delete the tweets, I'm going to walk away from some of the things that I said. Zoran, in a sense, pulled a similar maneuver. She's going in the other direction. She's keeping the tweets up. She's standing by him. She's not backing down from him. So she got asked yesterday on CNN about this cancel Thanksgiving tweet in particular. Let's go ahead and take a look at how that went.

[Francesca Hong]

You know, you talked about your past positions that he keeps highlighting and you know, obviously likely would continue to do so before November should you win. One thing that they brought up as well was a post from you in 2021 where you said Americans should cancel Thanksgiving, should have done this in 1621. The post has been deleted. Republicans have been highlighting it. Do you still believe that Thanksgiving should be canceled?

[Caitlin]

I'm a chef and one of the first meals that I made that was for the community when I was 16 was a Thanksgiving meal. Now I always think my hospitality background and owning a restaurant for seven, eight years that bringing folks around the table to share conversation and build community is always a good thing. But Thanksgiving is also a time that's incredibly painful for many people in our communities. And so I think there, I wanted to make sure that people understood that there are multiple views but views can evolve and the position that I'm running for right now and I think my background as a chef will actually help me become a better governor that's able to bring more people to the table.

[Francesca Hong]

Francesca Hong, thank you for joining us. We hope to have you back on depending on how things go next week in your primary.

[Caitlin]

Thank you so much for having me. Caitlin.

[Crystal]

Come on, Caitlin. It's a yes or no question. Do you think it should be. Come on, Logan. What do we think of this here?

[Logan Phillips]

All right. I read this this morning. It was way worse when I saw the video.

[Crystal]

It is so much worse.

[Logan Phillips]

Oh, my gosh.

[Crystal]

What does Chevy should be having?

[Ryan Grim]

She is right, though. Thanksgiving is painful for a lot of people when you have to sit down with your family, listen to their dumbass ideas about politics.

[Crystal]

If Zorin had answered that question, and I'm cribbing this from DSA leftists who are mad at her about this, he would have said, no, we're not gonna Thanksgiving. We're not gonna cancel Thanksgiving. We're gonna make it cheaper. And right now it's expensive because of Donald Trump's policies. So that when we all sit down for the Lions game or whatever and the Cowboys, we're gonna sit down together and we're gonna enjoy a cheaper and better conversation. Cause I'm gonna heal politics and we're gonna make it more affordable forever.

[Ryan Grim]

The real war on Thanksgiving is from Donald Trump.

[Crystal]

Yeah, exactly. Like, how hard is this? So look, we'll see. Betting odds do not have. Or they have her tied with the Republican, which it shouldn't be in a wave year for the Democrats. Yeah, that's my personal thing. I think she's the biggest red flag for all the Democrats that are out there, but it's gubernatorial, so it might be a little bit different, which is always a little bit better, even for a wave year, because it's not nationwide stakes.

[Francesca Hong]

But.

[Crystal]

Yeah. Any reaction?

[Ryan Grim]

You know what? Yeah, go ahead, Logan. I have one. One thing I'll add to this.

[Logan Phillips]

I would say that Francesca Honk should probably stay away from these national interviews. I've seen a bunch of them now on Fox News, on cnn, on NBC. And, like, this is usually how it goes. She is way better when it comes to giving public speeches. She clearly gets nervous and gets stuck in these word salads. And, you know, she has to have a little more control of her message. And I just think it's not the right platform for her.

[Ryan Grim]

I actually thought she did well in the Fox News interview, which was relatively hostile, but she still got praise from the FO host about how a lot of Trump voters like her message on data centers and, you know, sort of the. The local issues. I will say, just in terms of the electoral impact, I keep coming Back to. And I always forget the guy's name who's the AG of Virginia now, who literally, there were text messages exposed where he was like, I want to murder my political opponent. I think his child should. Like, they were.

[Logan Phillips]

Justin.

[Francesca Hong]

What's that?

[Crystal]

Is it Justin something?

[Ryan Grim]

It's Justin Jones. Is that it? I don't know. I live in the state. I should know. But in any case. And Democratic voters were like, yeah, he's not a Republican, though. So it may just be that kind of year where even with some, you know, challenging tweets to overcome that, there's just such anti Republican Party sentiment that there's no question.

[Crystal]

I'm not. I'm not in any way saying that this is gonna make her lose, but. Yeah. Anyway, I thought it was wild. And I do think there's a bit of a contrast between how some of the more successful politicians have been handling this. Like Abdul, who's basically just lying about how he never supported defund the police, and now Francesca Hong. So, hey.

[Ryan Grim]

Well, I think the most successful leftist candidates have really positioned themselves as the most pro American because they're saying, Abdul Al Nayeban, spend our dollars. Yeah, we're gonna spend them here at home and continuing to return to that message. And it's something that, you know, even Republicans, like the couple, very few characters who have a critique of Israel can't really credibly say because they don't wanna spend the money here on Medicare for all or whatever for. So I personally think that's the most successful lane for leftists is really to position themselves as the true, like America in terms of the American people. First candidates. And so in any case, Logan, excited to see you tonight. We'll have all kinds of results to break down for you guys. It should be a lot of fun.

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[Crystal]

Turning now to Iran, Major breaking news as of this morning. Let's put it up here on the screen. The United States, per Reuters, is now running out of virtually all long range precision missiles during the Iran war, per Reuters. This is an internal US Government assessment that has been passed around now for the last week and reportedly was one of the main reasons that Donald Trump decided not to go through with that full scale attack on Iran. Not some fake peace talk that were not actually happening. I'm gonna read from some of this story because it's so vitally important. The United States army has now used much of its stockpile of highly accurate long range missiles during its five month war with Iran. The missiles are principally the army surface to surface weapons known as the Army Tactical Missile System. The ATCAMS and Precision strike missiles, the prisms. The U.S. has quote, used virtually all of these weapons. The degree to which the military is running out of these specific missiles has not yet been previously reported. The long range munitions, an important part of the military arsenal before the war, allowing accurate strikes from a safe distance. The US supplied weapons have now played a key role also in the war in Ukraine where they currently are asking the United States for more of them. However, as we now know, virtually all of them have been used according to this reporting. Crystal Reuters says that CENTCOM actually used all of the missiles that they had in their domain and have had to draw down, as we saw previously with the Thaad and others from virtually all the other theaters around the world. The next time that the Prism missile, which is replacing the ATCAM missile will come online to the United States and production is 2027, so we will have to wait a full year before new ones will begin to enter the arsenal. This is honestly, I mean, look, we knew it was bad, didn't know it was this bad. They also actually, I just wanna say it's not just these landings missiles that are vitally important for the United States. It's the Tomahawk supplies as well. Something that has not been covered nearly as much because we do have more of them. But approximately 50% have now been used in the war with Iran. Again, it takes years in order to just make even a few dozen or so of these things from a single factory here in Arizona. Just to demonstrate the billions of dollars that have now been expended in terms of the munitions in this war and the trade off that will be needed. Last thing that I do think is so vitally important and also shows the strategic problem that we face is that they note inside of this US Government assessment that the reason why that we're running so low on these weapons and we've been so heavily reliant on them is we did not want to risk manned pilots dropping many of those other types of munitions over Iran out of fear that they would get shot down. Which means that the United States does not have the total air supremacy over Iran and that they remain afraid that we would have more shoot downs as we saw in the final days of the war before the seas or the full scale war before the ceasefire broke out. So overall a vitally, vitally dire position for the United States to be in. Can't emphasize enough how important these missiles obviously were in the course of the war and in terms of the war plans for all of the other different theaters, including Russia and China, so the number one determining factor it appears as to whether the United States even can resume a full scale all out war against Iran even if it wanted to. Just five months is all it took to basically expend most of them.

[Ryan Grim]

Absolutely insane. And as people have been covering this for years, at this point it is shocking just how bad the situation is. I mean, what can you even say about this? Where does all the money go? What have you people spent all of our tax dollars on? I mean, we fund the Pentagon more and more and more every single year, whether it's a Democratic or Republican administration. The last time we had any sort of cuts was actually under Obama with that sequestration deal with the Republicans. Outside of that, the line just continues to go up. Pete hegseth is demanding $1.5 trillion. What is the money going to? Complete insanity. So to your point, look, what we did in the initial round of the war is we used a lot of these precision long range weapons.

[MSNBC Interviewer]

Why?

[Ryan Grim]

Because our planes kept mysteriously falling out of the sky. Remember those claims in the early days that there were like three fighter jets that were down by friendly fire? Yeah, I'm sure we all believe that one. In any case, we're having all kinds of problems being able to establish that air superiority. So we're using these long range missiles in order to hit targets. That is no longer an option. So next time Trump goes out there and says, oh, we're gonna bomb their bridges, we're gonna commit all these war crimes, we're gonna bomb their water infrastructure, et cetera, with what? What are you gonna use for that? So it just underscores, once again, there is no military solution to the problem of Iran. The only solution is a negotiated diplomatic solution. The only solution is to surrender, is to admit defeat. That's where we're at. I mean, it's completely insane that the US military, which had all this projection of strength and all of this money, spent way more on it than any other country in the entire world, cannot even sustain this long of a conflict and is thoroughly defeated. So, you know, as things go on, we were lucky to get the terms of the original mou. That MOU is no longer on the table. The Iranians are going to drive a hard bargain because they're reading this reporting. They know the situation, they know that we have no real options to turn this thing around. So it just underscores what a dire, dire situation Donald Trump has gotten us into.

[Crystal]

I really just can't even like, look, we knew the situation was bad. CSIS has a good Handle again, you can go and look at all their methodology. Ben Shapiro looking at you, apparently he thinks he knows better than the people who are literally connected to the war industrial base, funded by them in many respects. But, okay, so where we are right now is that CSIS had previously pegged it around 45% of all of them expended. We now know that that's not even the case. It's even more. And it appears that because of their ability to estimate methodology, they can actually undercount the number of missiles used. The internal assessment really matters in terms of what they're pointing out, especially because with those prisms, for example, I believe the number was fewer than 100 that we even had before going into the war. Another 120 will take about a year or so to come online. The Tomahawks as well. I've talked about this, you know, to many ends, especially about the factories and the initial process and the way that it's all there. You could spend all the money in the world and it still wouldn't work. But it does still show you we have been spending all the money in the world. We had years to plan for exactly a crisis moment like this. From 2022 onward. Biden squandered all of that. He basically gave the entire barn over to Ukraine. And now we've got nothing left, especially with Ukraine with their hands out, out today for all of these even more critical missile systems. And the bottom line remains the United States is afraid of being able to take casualties in the air over Iran. So they're heavily reliant on this. And now we're gonna be in a situation where if the war does have to escalate or not have to, but if they want to escalate it again, a lot of people's lives are gonna be seriously at risk, both from the interceptor stockpiles being so low that they'll have to ration and a lot of pilots, you know, maybe at risk of up in the air. And we already saw with the F35, the so called friendly fire shutdowns. There's two tankers that allegedly ran into each other. So there are all kinds of sketchy situations that are all happening here. But it does explain all of Trump's BSing behavior because he remains totally committed to this idea that we are going to have some sort of talks. And in fact we have here saying that talks are underway by Donald Trump. This is his claim yesterday in the oval Office Office B2. Let's take a listen. Are the talks with Iran now Off

[Ryan Grim]

and are airstrikes now.

[Donald Trump]

They're on. They're going on right now. It's an amazing thing. We have a little problem with Iran because we have many talks and we'll say we have or we don't have, you know, we're straight about it. But they deny it. But they're not denying it now. They just put out a statement not denying it. But for some reason they, when they're talking, they don't like saying that they're talking, talking their senses. So they called me and they said, please don't attack. We'll make a deal. That's the real truth and everyone knows it. And who wouldn't call that.

[Crystal]

So that's the real truth. Meanwhile, the actual truth. Let's put B3 up here on the screen. Per Wall Street Journal and the Iranian Foreign Ministry, here's what they say. Iran's Foreign Ministry. There are no discussions underway with the United States. There are no plans to have any discussion. The only discussions are currently with Oman which continue on managing traffic through the passage. Trump calls Tehran unbelievably duplicitous. And in fact what we already see is that even these talks with Oman about some sort of managed route for the future through the Strait of Hormuz is not a guarantee. We have had multiple vessels including again maybe an hour or so before we even began this show of another one that was just hitting by an Iranian projectile in the Strait of Hormuz trying to transit in a different manner. The current estimate is that there's a lot of black market traffic that is moving through the strait, approximately 5 million barrels a day or so, so called, they're called ship to ship transfers where it comes on one ship and a blockade runner takes it and takes it to another ship. Hyper inefficient, very, very expensive. Obviously with the current price of oil, some people are willing to risk it, but it pales in the 20 million barrels a day that were originally moving through the Strait of Hormuz. And explains why even with oil prices quote down around 80, $85 per barrel, it is still gonna be punishingly high at the gas station for all of us. And to that point, by the way, Trump now basically abandoning even trying to get oil prices down by increasing the supply, is now saying that the oil companies are making too much money. B1, let's take a listen.

[Israeli Settler]

Exxon and Chevron integrated all us just announced months, record profits. Second yeah, unbelievable. For, for Exxon for instance, 14 million house. They've had an over decade for Chevron for the quarter highest in history by

[Donald Trump]

12 times on the back. You saw that?

[Israeli Settler]

Yes. I mean it's unbelievable. On the backs.

[Donald Trump]

I don't like it.

[Israeli Settler]

Workers paying higher, guests. Yeah, whatever. Is our.

[Donald Trump]

They're making too much money. Okay. Based on a shortage, they're making too much money. I don't like it. And I should be the last one to say because I'm a big free enterprise guy, nobody bigger. And you know, you're going to see oil when we're finished with Iran. You're going to see the prices drop through the floor. But they made too much money. Too much money. Chevron too much money. ExxonMobil too much. Too much money. When you look at one company where they made 12 times what they made the year before, they got to give some of that back to the public and they better cut the retail price, the consumer price. Too much money. You surprised him saying it. I'll say it loud and clear. I'm not happy about it.

[Crystal]

He's not happy about it. You know, he's going to tell them, send them a very strongly worded truth to tell them to drop their price. So I mean, first of all, you know, there's a lot of funny things you could say about, about free enterprise and all of that. But look, is he actually going to do anything to tell them not to do that? No, he can't actually because of where things are today. He could try the export ban. It would be a disaster in the long run and probably lead to outright shortages, probably destroy the global oil market as we know it and in the long run would actually make oil prices much higher for everyone. There's only one thing you can do which is end the war. You end the war then. Yeah, okay, we can have some oil that's going to go through but, but still not accepting it. As of this morning, retail gasoline average $4.08 a gallon around the nation. Still well over $5 in California. So that's where things are.

[Ryan Grim]

Well, one other breaking news, we've got Scott Besant on Fox News saying that we may have a deal within the next day or two. I'll just read you what he says. We've seen President Trump last week threaten what would have been the largest military campaign since World War II against the Iranians. Now because of that we are in talks with the Iranians. I think there's a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Straits Sagar. So this is, you know, we have no long range precision missiles. All we have left is like jawboning. Market manipulation lies in propaganda. That is effectively the only tool that's left in our arsenal. So that's what Trump has deployed to his credit. I think he deploys it very effectively. Markets are loving this new Scott Besant comment. We'll see if today or tomorrow we have a deal to open the Strait. If you guys think that's really gonna happen. The Iranians, as Sagar told you before, have said, we're not negotiating. No. Why would we do that? And the sentiment within Iran, as Professor Morandi, when we had him on, discussed with us, is no negotiations. Why would we do that? Right now, we have the upper hand. And there's a report that they may have attacked our base in Kuwait. They still have plenty of weapons that they can deploy. They feel they're in a very strong position. And so unless Trump is truly ready to accept the defeat that has been rendered on the battlefield, then we're gonna continue in this kind of limbo state.

[Crystal]

Yep, exactly. And, you know, look, last thing to that point. So there may be a deal, but that deal is not gonna between the United States. That deal's gonna between Oman, Qatar and Iran. So there was allegedly some final draft which is being, you know, coming through. It will actually institute some kind of a surrender of what we're talking about, which is we will say, okay, chips go through the Iranian side, exit the Omani side. Some payment or something like that is gonna have to go through. And that will be an alleged framework to get to the point where we can have talks so we can get back to the memorandum understanding, so we can get back to a potential nuclear deal, just to show how far we are away from all of this. So whether there's a, quote, deal or not to open the Strait, we already literally had one. This will still be an Iran and an Omani understanding, which we then assent to and accept. Last point here from Donald Trump before. Let's put it up here on the screen. He had said previously Iran's leadership is unbelievably duplicitous. They had asked for a meeting, some would say beg, that talks began with more scheduled in the immediate future. They're saying openly and proudly. They're not having any discussions. They then go to give their usual blather in saying the Strait of Hormuz will be operated by them when it's already completely controlled by the United States, the US Wall of steel blockade, et cetera. Nothing gets through to Iran unless we want it to. And nothing will get through unless a deal or total surrender is accomplished. So he had said previously a couple of times this is the last chance. I mean he's also said that many times before. So take the Scott Besant news this truth, all of that with a grain of salt. The one thing you can count on, the hard fact is that we basically completely run out of some of these missiles. We have very few of the other types left before we have to full blown start rationing and enter a bad situation. So maybe you know, Besant is right that a quote deal is on the horizon, but it is not going to be one even remotely floated or any of that by the United States. We'll remain in sea and obviously we'll remain and keep everybody updated. But let's get to Gaza.

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[Chelsea Handler]

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[Ashley Iconetti]

This is Ashley Iconetti from the Ben and Ashley I Almost Famous podcast. Ben. I've been reflecting a lot lately on how many big life moments our listeners have experienced with us.

[Ben]

Yeah, it's pretty wild.

[Ashley Iconetti]

They've watched us go from dating shows to engagements, weddings, babies, buying homes. Every stage comes with new decisions.

[Ben]

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[Ashley Iconetti]

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[Ryan Grim]

Wanted to turn now to Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, some wild things that are unfolding there in particular. Let's start with this clip. A BBC journalist asked an Israeli settler about the lives of Palestinians versus Jewish life. And the answer is actually not shocking, but it should be. Let's take a listen.

[Israeli Settler]

I think now after they kill one Israeli people, we need to kill all the people in TELL and Sarah, even Jit and Farata. Why? Because we don't want it to happen again.

[BBC Journalist]

It sounds like you're saying one Jewish life is worth hundreds or thousands of Palestinian lives, not million.

[Israeli Settler]

One Jewish life, it's 10 million.

[BBC Journalist]

Okay, that just sounds racist.

[Israeli Settler]

Yes, I know, I know. But this is the truth. Because God chooses us because of this. You are jealous.

[BBC Journalist]

These inflammatory views rejected by many Israelis are crucial to understanding the growing violence in the west bank, which many extremist Israeli settlers see as land given to them by God.

[Israeli Settler]

The Bible is the authorizing that this land belongs to us. Okay.

[BBC Journalist]

Israel occupied it militarily and under international law, that means that no civilian settlements can be built in.

[Israeli Settler]

Yes, but the God not right in the Bible, the international law.

[BBC Journalist]

So you're a lawyer.

[Israeli Settler]

Yeah.

[BBC Journalist]

And you're saying the only law that really counts for you is the Bible?

[Israeli Settler]

Yeah, of course. Wow.

[Ryan Grim]

And Sagar, this is the logical endpoint, honest endpoint of an ethno supremacist ideology and religious extremism. And you know, in the BBC report they make clear say, oh, many Israelis disagree with this, do they? I sure. I'm sure many Israelis wouldn't say it quite this overtly, but we've seen the polling on how comfortable they were with mass slaughter in Gaza. We've seen the polling on how many want to expel all Palestinians who are currently citizens within Israel, who are in support of mass ethnic cleansing. So. So, you know, this is the unvarnished face, the true face of the ethno supremacist ideology that undergirds the state of Israel currently.

[Crystal]

Yeah. And what we actually see inside of the settlements is the normalization, quasi legalization. I mean, this used to be a fringe part of Israeli society. Most secular Israelis looked down on this type of. Not even just this type of rhetoric they actively were opposed to. I mean, there were major fractures in their own society over settlements, et cetera. However, what has effectively been normalized now, I would say over the last 10 to 15 years especially, is not just an overt embrace, but really like elevation of a lot of the stuff we've seen right in front of you. And you could say this is just one person, but it is quasi representative itself now of government policy, because their own minister of whatever national security, Ben Giving, he speaks like this every day. I mean, currently, what is it they're. Currently, he wanted to put crocodiles in a prison for Palestinians. And the only reason that the plan was struck down was animal welfare organization in Israel was like, this would be bad for the crocodiles.

[Ryan Grim]

That's exactly right.

[Crystal]

You think? Look, I know this sounds crazy. That actually happened. That literally just happened this week. And it's like. Like if PETA was looking up for the crocodiles and not for the actual prisoners, not some bleeding heart liberal who's on, you know, in terms of prisoners. But I'm like, okay, well, we know, we know who's like, medieval.

[Ryan Grim]

It's not even fair to call them prisoners. I mean, these are truly hostages. They get picked up for the smallest, even theoretical fraction. Oftentimes you're talking about children, you know, documented systematic torture, abuse, sexual abuse, et cetera. That's what we're talking about here. So even to describe it as a prison is really to water down what the reality is within these, you know, within these camps. And so, you know, last thing on this, and then we'll talk some about what's going on with the gossip board of peace, which I think is also very important, very illustrative. I remember early on after October 7, Sagar, you and I covering things that Daniela Weiss, who is one of these settler leaders, was saying, and this was treated as a fringe view, but she was talking about greater Israel and how Israel had a right to not just, you know, historic Palestine, not just Gaza, and you know, what they call Judea and Samaria, the west bank, but other countries land as well. And lo and behold, here we are. Now they're occupying part of Syria, they're occupying part of Lebanon with no intention of leaving. They're helping to foment the war in Iran. Like, it's very clear that the Greater Israel Project is a real commitment, not just from some fringe figure who, by the way, Daniela Weiss is very influential, but from the government itself. And how can you say this government isn't reflective of the people? How many times has Netanyahu been reelected? How many decades has he served as prime minister of this rogue state? So you know these I've long said that if you wanted an understanding of what was going to unfold after October 7th, in response to October 7th, the best people to listen to were the most hyperbolic lefties. I think I even understated the case. And the settler terrorists who will tell you flat out the way they think about Palestinians, the way they feel about it, their own twisted and perverted moral calculus and what they think the state of Israel should ultimately do. So with that framing, let's talk a little bit about what's going on with the quote, unquote Board of Peace. Trump made a big announcement saying, oh, we've got this, we've got this deal and Hamas has agreed to disarm, etcetera, Etc, etcetera. Well, there is an agreement in place, but it is much different from what Trump represented. And Israel is already undermining the pieces that they are supposed to abide to as they transition to new governance within the Gaza strip. Let's put C3 up on the screen here. This is from the AP. Their headline is Hamas says they'll disarm if Israel halt strikes and withdraws from Gaza. But and I love this framing, but obstacles remain. What are those obstacles? Well, the obstacles are the fault, that are the fact that Israel has no intention of withdrawing from Gaza. In fact, what they've said is they want to claim more of Gaza. They're already at 50%. They want to go to 60 or 70% of Gaza that they claim and occupy, and they continue to bomb and to attack and murder within the Gaza Strip. So there is not going to be any deal moving forward so long as Israel continues to occupy Gaza and kill Palestinians. Let's put C5 up on the screen. This is the latest from Dropsite. They have killed 34 Palestinians and wounded 134 just since that Gaza deal announcement. Since Trump's Friday announcement of a historic agreement and Hamas's acceptance of phase two of the Gaza ceasefire deal conditioned on Israeli compliance alliance, Israelis have attacked and killed at least 34 Palestinians wounded 134 others across the Strip. This is, you know, some number of children among them. They have another tweet where they lay out that since the ceasefire was announced in Gaza last October, they've killed 1,250 Palestinians. Just to be clear, this is since the ceasefire they have killed more Palestinians than were killed as than Israelis who were killed on October 7th. That is to include 270 children, 134 women, 38 elderly people, wounded 4,110, including 1,147 children, 700 women and 175 elderly people. So while the pace of slaughter has slowed, it has not come even close to stopping. Sager?

[Crystal]

Yeah. And you know, the other reason why I think this is all very important is Iran is watching this. We talked a lot about what happened with the Board of Peace or sorry, with the Saudi nuclear deal, how Trump signs this deal, deal reneges literally almost immediately changes the conditions. Well, what about with Gaza and with Hamas? So let's even take in this case, you got Hamas who basically held their hands up. And apparently we're told by the Iranians not to do this. When Hamas representatives were in Tehran, I think for the funeral of the Ayatollah, there was an alleged meeting between them and the Iranian leadership. And Iranian leadership said, you shouldn't do this. They're gonna bomb you anyway. You really shouldn't have any sort of negotiation. Hamas said, okay, no, we're still going to do it. They disagreed for of course, their own internal reasons. They've been crushed and basically defeated, at least in terms of their political leadership. And so what they did is they still acquiesced. They thought there was still some legitimacy in the border peace deal. And then immediately Israel reneges on the US Announced deal, continues to bomb and to kill civilians. So if you're Iran, you told Hamas not to do and you're still watching very closely, you're like, okay, we've got this US Backed border peace deal. Trump has some relative interest in saying, I'm the person who ended the war in Gaza. Hamas literally putting their hands up saying we will disarm completely if you continue to abide by this deal. All you have to do is withdraw from this. Israel says we'll do it and then they don't do it and they change the terms on a dime. So if you are Iran watching this, this only further affirms what you've seen how with the United States, its backing, its ability to restrain Israel, how real is that? Whenever the deal that you just signed in front of you is one which, effectively they renege on on day one, literally the day after this announcement even comes. So I do think in the bigger picture, it's really important, especially as we're talking, there's some more leaks that are coming out about this Iran and Oman deal. It's exactly as I suspected. It's not a deal with the United States signatory at all. It's Iran and it's Oman. That's it. America can say yes or no in terms of whether we choose to let it go into place or not, but we are not a party to this whatsoever. That is what the future is going to look like. They're gonna say, we've worked out a framework. This is how it's gonna work. And at the end of the day, we can choose to do the blockade or not, and I guess choose to be in a war with Oman as well. But our word is nothing at this point. You know, I was listening Tucker and Daryl Cooper having a podcast this morning. They put it in really terms I hadn't considered. We don't ever talk about how dastardly the initial attack on Iran was in the first place. And maybe that sounds really dramatic. It was Pearl harbor. Like, it was. There was no declaration of war. It came out of nowhere. There was a completely false pretext. And it also didn't even work, just like, you know, Pearl harbor in the initial attack, which we look back upon as. As a great betrayal. And yet the United States launched this war basically the same way. The Japanese, under an initial flag of peace, and which were alleged negotiations that were happening, like with Steve Wyckoff and Midnight Hammer, and the second time around, and we murdered 168 schoolgirls on the first day of the war, let's say the truth for what it is. And so not just in terms of stain of honor, but how to come back from that and to actually have some sort of negotiation. And that was just from day one to today in terms of our conduct. Not even to mention what's been happening with Gaza.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. I mean, imagine if the shoe was on the other foot. Oh, my God, the Iranians came to us. Oh, let's work on a deal. And we're so close to a deal. And then, you know, out of nowhere, they murder a bunch of American schoolgirls, attack a bunch of civilian infrastructure. Remember the black clouds and the oil rain over Tehran, and they, you know, kill our entire top leadership, everybody that they possibly can, and in the most dishonorable way possible. You know, Supreme Leader was taken out at his home with many of his family members, including his young grandchild. So, yeah, I mean, it's the most disgraceful and dishonorable thing that you can possibly imagine. Just real quick to go back to the Board of Peace because I think it's important to validate. This isn't just like us saying that Israel's attacking, et cetera, a Board of Peace envoy. And remember, all these people are like handpicked by Trump. Trump, right? Like, this is his hole, this is his rodeo. They are complaining about him undercutting, about the Israelis undercutting the deal. This is C4. So this is in an envoy to the Board of Peace. He said on X2 Days of Strikes across Gaza have killed civilians and destroyed medical supplies that people depend on. This comes after intense efforts by the Board of Peace and the mediators, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and the US US to bring the Palestinian factions in Gaza to agree to a roadmap on the full implementation of President Trump's plan to hand over civilian governance and decommission their weapons. Both parties carry obligations under the comprehensive plan. My team and I are working around the clock with the parties, the mediators and regional partners to de escalate and create the space for the full implementation of the President's plan. Achieving a lasting peace is hard but achievable if everyone makes their efforts. And the only way that this thing has a prayer of moving forward word is if Trump were to go to the Israelis and say, you're withdrawing now, you are not attacking anymore, there are going to be consequences if you do. There is zero indication that he has the willingness to take that hard of a line, even though this is his own, like, you know, this is his own deal, this is his own sort of like legacy credibility, blah, blah, blah, on the line. But even when it comes to that, there's just zero sign of him engaging in a enough to care and to force the Israelis to do what they are supposed to do under the terms of this agreement.

[Crystal]

I think very, very important. Like I said. So in terms of the Israel, Gaza situation, the ideology at front, and also how literally the world is watching in terms of how this is going to impact with Iran, this remains. It sounds crazy. You know, we started covering October 7th. It was just that day in and day out, I don't think anybody could have predicted how much it would snowball out, not only into this war with Iran. Israel's bombed seven countries, it's expanded its own borders. It has now gotten us into a situation where we've expended all of our precision guided, our precision stockpiles and all of these other things. And it's only been three years to even think about how monumental that is. It really is just completely insane. And also how much we've adopted so much of their own behavior. I talked yesterday in our show, we dropped a 2,000 pound bomb on a fan. Nobody even thinks about it. Nobody says a word. You know, you just do a story time. You know, years ago that would have been a national scandal. There would have been an actual investigation. The commander who fired that would have been called before Congress. There would have been a Pentagon inspector general report. You know, the media, not even just the media, but the average person like, you know, Crystal, you and I were around for Abu Ghraib. Everybody knew about that. People actually knew about and they were horrified by it. I'm saying I grew up in Bush country. Even these people were like, man, this is horrible now, you know, it just rolls off of our back. And that's the type of Israeli behavior we gotta reject at the very beginning.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, no doubt about it. And even if you, you know, don't consider Iranian lives as precious as American lives, which you should think of the backlash from Abu Ghraib, think about how radicalizing that was. You don't think that the genocide in Gaza is gonna be radicalizing for plenty of people against not just Israel, but against the U.S. us? You don't think bombing a school full of little girls, triple tap strike, by the way, you don't think that's going to be radicalizing? Dropping 2,000 pound bombs on a family's home and killing parents and a two year old, you don't think that's going to be radicalizing? We're just sewing more danger and terror and chaos and war in the world and it is unacceptable.

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[Donald Trump]

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[Israeli Settler]

Watch us.

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