9/23/25: Trump Links Tylenol To Autism, Homan Denies Cash Bribe, Electricity Prices Skyrocket

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar – Episode Summary

Date: September 23, 2025
Theme: Fact-checking sensational claims about autism and Tylenol from the Trump administration, corruption allegations against border official Tom Homan, and economic woes including rising electricity costs and manufacturing job losses.

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Episode Overview

Hosts Krystal Ball and Ryan Grim (with Saagar Enjeti out) dive into three headline topics:

• President Trump’s claims about Tylenol use in pregnancy and autism risk, joined by figures like RFK Jr. and new federal warnings
• The bribery investigation into Trump’s border czar Tom Homan, and the Supreme Court’s narrowing of anti-corruption laws
• Mounting economic anxieties: job losses from tariffs, a data-delayed inflation report, and the impact of AI/data centers on electricity prices

The episode emphasizes skepticism towards both mainstream political narratives and government pronouncements, grounding the discussion in available data and historical context. The tone is critical, unsparing, and conversational.

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1. Trump Links Tylenol to Autism: Claims, Evidence, and Fallout

[07:38 – 36:15]

Key Segments

• [07:38] Trump and the Trump administration make public claims tying Tylenol (acetaminophen) use during pregnancy to autism.
• [09:25] Federal government plans new warning labels on Tylenol; Krystal and Ryan break down the actual scientific evidence.
• [10:09] RFK Jr. plays a prominent role alongside Trump, advocating for caution with acetaminophen.
• [11:47] Krystal brings in data from a 2.5 million child study that found no sibling-controlled link between Tylenol use and autism.
• [31:59] Ramifications: Tylenol’s parent company loses 8% overnight; concern about pregnant women being left without pain relief options.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Trump’s Claim ([07:38], Trump, paraphrased):
  Advises pregnant women: “Don’t take Tylenol unless you have a fever… there’s a rumor… Cuba, they don’t have Tylenol, and they have virtually no autism. That tells you a lot.”
  • Trump also refers to the Amish (who “have essentially no autism”) and speculates about “too many different things going into that baby” (meaning medications and vaccines).
  • Krystal notes: "While it's Trump being Trump, it's also a major pronouncement from his administration."
• RFK Jr.’s Position ([10:20], RFK Jr.):
  "Prudent medicine...suggests caution in acetaminophen used by young children, especially since strong evidence also has associated it with liver toxicity."
• Scientific Evidence Breakdown ([11:47], Krystal summarizing a major Swedish study):
  • Sibling-controlled analysis “found no evidence acetaminophen use during pregnancy was associated with autism.”

    “So basically to break that down...if you look at it without sibling control, you could see it. If you do look at it with sibling control, then it largely disappears.”

• Medical & Parental Realities
  • Krystal: "To say don't use it at all ... I don't see the current evidence for that."
  • Both hosts warn against “popping painkillers like candy,” but call banning or frightening pregnant women simplistic and potentially harmful.
• Risk of Public Panic & Substituting More Dangerous Drugs
  • Ryan: “One fear is that people will see all of this coverage...then they will move to aspirin or Advil. But even as Trump said...we know for sure those are dangerous."
• Lack of Nuance & Political Theater
  • Krystal: "I find the lack of nuance from the government frankly appalling because I think it just pushes more of the burden on mothers..."
  • Ryan notes the FDA press release's "tug of war":
    • Paragraph 1: Suggests a link.
    • Paragraph 2: "A causal relationship has not been established and there are contrary studies in the scientific literature."
• On Causation Versus Association
  • Krystal: “Diagnostics is one of the prevailing theories of the medical community... it’s obviously multifactorial.”
  • Discusses diagnostic expansion, maternal and paternal age, environmental and pharmaceutical factors, and social determinants (obesity, bad diet, limited prenatal support).
• Announcement of New “Therapy” ([28:13])
  • Dr. Marty Makary & Dr. Jay Bhattacharya tout “leucovorin” (vitamin B9) for autism, based on studies of folate deficiency.
  • Hosts point out evidence is preliminary and call for more robust research.
• Systemic Effects & Responsibility
  • Krystal: “For women who are pregnant in America today, it’s really not easy… the last thing you want when you’re pregnant is stress. Now it’s about Tylenol, Advil, diet, prenatal...There’s already so much pressure on these people."
• Meta-Commentary
  • Ryan: “Both Trump and RFK Jr. were kind of boxed in by their very early declarations…had to come up with something.” ([34:01])

Notable Quotes

• “Everything is trade-offs... If you're in a lot of pain, you have a lot of fever, well, taking is gonna make you feel better.” – Krystal ([16:25])
• “You shouldn’t trust RFK Jr. You definitely should not trust Donald Trump for his personal medical advice.” – Krystal ([16:44])
• “He [Trump] said it over and over and over again. He’s like, do not take Tylenol.” – Krystal ([16:50])
• “Making macro decisions for the entire nation without any new data, that seems a big problem for me.” – Krystal ([35:54])

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2. Tom Homan Bribery Allegation & America’s Broken Corruption Laws

[38:16 – 53:00]

Key Segments

• [38:16] NBC reports Tom Homan, Trump’s new border czar, allegedly accepted $50,000 from undercover FBI agents in a bag.
• [41:39] Homan denies wrongdoing on Fox News, but does not actually deny taking the money—only says “I did nothing criminal, I did nothing illegal.”
• [43:55] Administration spokesperson flatly denies the $50k was ever taken. Contradictory statements noted by hosts.
• [49:04] Krystal: “Release the tapes, man…if you did nothing wrong, release it…People have a right to know whether the people in charge are corrupt, but plot twist, they are.”
• [49:48] The hosts explain SCOTUS (2024) anti-bribery ruling: “Simply accepting cash does not...mean that it’s bribery because you actually have cash to deliver.”

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• The Sting & Non-Denial Denial
  • Homan allegedly caught on camera. Investigation shut down after Trump wins presidency.
  • Homan on Fox: “Look, I did nothing criminal, I did nothing illegal. … Tom Homan isn’t going anywhere.”
  • Krystal: “What he didn’t say is I never took the money.”
• The Supreme Court Has Legalized Corruption
  • The bar for federal bribery is now almost impossibly high after a 2024 SCOTUS ruling: must prove explicit, deliverable quid pro quo, essentially on tape, for an “official act.”
• Media Framing and Timing
  • Ryan: "Did you notice who broke the story?... She clearly had the story [at the Washington Post] for some reason... did not write it there."
  • Why did Democrats not leak the story in September 2024, when it could have damaged Trump? Suggests there was something even bigger being investigated.
• West Texas as Corruption Playground
  • “There are no laws out there, Ryan, because there’s no lawmen.” – Krystal ([48:50])
• Accountability and Double-standards
  • Krystal: “Anybody who is dumb enough to accept $50,000 in cash in a kava bag, you shouldn’t even be close to power.”
• Corruption Law Analysis
  • SCOTUS decision: state and local laws must define bribery; federal law only applies if an explicit, recorded quid pro quo is proven for an “official act.”
  • Krystal: “It’s sick, honestly, the way we’ve basically legalized corruption here.”
  • If a media figure did what Homan allegedly did, “you’re bringing people the news and it’s 10,000 times less important than actually running the government.”

Notable Quotes

• “The standards now are—it’s kind of like defamation for media—you have to prove that not only were they accepting the money, they were doing so for an explicit quid pro quo. That quid pro quo was real, it was promised, and it was deliverable. And all of this is being caught on audio, on video…” – Krystal ([50:31])
• “If you’re caught on camera accepting the $50,000 cash in kava bag, you’re corrupt…maybe not in the eyes of the law. And I think that public officials should of course be held to be the highest standard.” – Krystal ([52:59])

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3. Economic Headwinds: Tariffs, Data Delayed, Soaring Electricity

[55:09 – 72:55]

Key Segments

• [55:09] Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) laments tariff-driven job losses: combine manufacturing jobs moving from Nebraska to Europe.
• [59:41] U.S. farmers unable to sell soybeans to China; effects on domestic manufacturing and rural economies.
• [61:11] Trump administration delays key inflation data (BLS report), citing “data quality issues.”
• [62:52] Lower- and middle-income Americans slashing spending; U.S. consumer market driven increasingly by the ultra-wealthy.
• [63:41] Soaring electricity bills, especially due to data centers and the AI boom, with lingering impacts from Ukraine conflict and U.S. energy export policies.
• [66:59] Data centers outcompete residents for power; some require more electricity than medium-sized cities.
• [69:32] Policy comparison: U.S. vs. China on infrastructure and energy reliability—China treats electricity as a “solved problem.”
• [71:00] Critique of the “Big Beautiful Bill” (GOP legislation) that tilted the playing field against renewable energy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

• Tariffs Gone Wrong
  • Rep. Bacon: “Tariffs aren’t working…a company that makes combines…moving all of their manufacturing for Canadian combines to Europe. That’s hundreds of jobs.”
  • U.S. farm exports to China have dried up, compounding rural economic pain.
• Delayed Inflation Report
  • BLS delays major consumer price data release, raising questions about administrative pressure and market transparency.
• Consumer Spending Fragmentation
  • The rich are now responsible for nearly half of all U.S. consumer spending. Bottom 90% are reducing outlays and dipping into savings as cost pressures mount ([62:52]).
• Electricity Crisis
  • Electricity prices have exploded since the Ukraine war; clean energy buildout lags, as data centers (esp. AI) consume outsized power.
  • Data centers often get preferential service even as residents face rate hikes and possible rolling blackouts.
  • “A lot of these data centers require more electricity than cities the size of Pittsburgh, Cleveland, or New Orleans.” – Krystal ([69:09])
• Regulatory Capture and Local Incentives
  • County officials in some states can legally serve as both lawmakers and paid consultants/lobbyists for big tech/data center firms.
• U.S. Infrastructure Policy Critique
  • Krystal: “Why are we exporting natural gas? We make all the natural gas. Why don’t we…just use it for ourselves?”
  • “China doesn’t even think about power. They think it’s cheap, plentiful…” – Krystal ([69:37])
  • Nuclear power touted as obvious but underutilized solution.

Notable Quotes

• “We’re getting rolling blackouts and we’re just going to have to deal with it.” – Ryan ([72:52])
• “Bill tilted the playing field against clean energy…it’s like, no, we’re going to make it easier for fossil fuels, subsidize them. We’re going to make it harder for this…” – Ryan ([72:31])
• “I think nuclear is the obvious answer. By the way, the Trump administration—hey, make big promises on nuclear. Still haven’t seen a damn thing happen.” – Krystal ([72:13])

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Notable Moments and Quotes (with Timestamps)

• [07:38] Trump at White House: “You have certain groups, the Amish as an example, they have essentially no autism… there are parts of the world that don’t have Tylenol where they don’t have autism. That tells you a lot.”
• [10:20] RFK Jr.: “Prudent medicine therefore suggests caution in acetaminophen use by young children...strong evidence also has associated it with liver toxicity.”
• [11:47] Krystal: “Sibling control analyses found no evidence acetaminophen use during pregnancy was associated with autism.”
• [16:25] Krystal: “No one can say it’s totally safe… Everything is trade-offs. If you have a lot of pain, you have a lot of fever, well, taking is gonna make you feel better.”
• [38:16] Krystal: “It does tell us a lot about the country where we are today because… bribery is legal after the Supreme Court ruled in 2024.”
• [41:39] Tom Homan: “I did nothing criminal, I did nothing illegal…”
• [53:00] Krystal: “If you’re caught on camera accepting the $50,000 cash in kava bag, you’re corrupt...maybe not in the eyes of the law.”
• [55:29] Rep. Don Bacon: “A company that makes combines…they’re moving all of their manufacturing for Canadian combines to Europe. That’s hundreds of jobs right there.”
• [63:41] Krystal: “What’s really punching people in the face…are people’s electric bills.”
• [69:37] Krystal: “It’s time for my daily ‘China does it a better way.’... they don’t even think about power.”
• [72:52] Ryan: “We’re getting rolling blackouts and we’re just going to have to deal with it.”

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Takeaways

• Medical Policy: Trump’s pronouncements on Tylenol and autism lack solid scientific evidence and further muddy public trust in health guidance.
• Corruption: High-profile bribery, even if caught on tape, may not be prosecutable due to recent Supreme Court rulings that privilege explicit, official quid pro quo above more standard forms of influence-peddling.
• Economy: Tariffs are hurting the very workers they purportedly protect; inflation, job losses, and energy costs are hitting average Americans hard. Policy gridlock and favoritism toward big tech and fossil fuels exacerbate inequality.
• Host Tone: Skeptical, direct, and occasionally exasperated at the failures of elite institutions, from the medical establishment to federal anti-corruption enforcement.

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For First-Time Listeners:
This episode serves as both a timely fact check and a wider critique of U.S. politics and policy failures, offering the kind of context and skepticism that hallmark Breaking Points.

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Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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[Krystal Ball]

Whatever it takes to get you the in depth info on local schools you won't find anywhere else. Things like student teacher ratio, test scores and school programs. And sometimes that requires attending school recitals. So many recitals.

[Ryan Grim]

That's my son.

[Krystal Ball]

Isn't he terrific? Yeah, a real prodigy. Homes.com Bing Dong We've done your homework.

[Ryan Grim]

A treasure trove of bananas has been stolen and it's up to Donkey Kong and his buddy Pauline to get them back. This unlikely duo is going on a world smashing adventure using DK's destructive abilities to explore an underground world and the power of Pauline singing to activate wild transformations. Donkey Kong Bonanza available Now greeted everyone 10 and up only on Nintendo Switch 2 game and systems sold separately.

[Krystal Ball]

Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here. Independent Media just played a truly massive.

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see [e-mail] Good morning everybody. Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. Bro Show Ryan People live for the pound. It's been a while here my man it's good to see you.

[Ryan Grim]

How you doing?

[Krystal Ball]

I'm good, I'm good. I was complaining to you about how sleep deprived I am these days. Four month sleep regression. No joke, no joke. We will delve into many tough topics. Number one is autism. A new claim from the Trump administration, from President Trump himself, advising American pregnant women, do not take Tylenol unless you have a fever. He said to your baby, no, he said, he said, just grin and bear it unless he has the worst circumstances ever. We'll get into it. We'll get into it. I pulled all the data that we can all go through. Ryan and I can go off. We're gonna talk about Homan, Tom Homan. This is not a story that we were able to cover yesterday. Allegedly accepting a $53,000 bribe in a bag of cash from Cava, which again, you know, we gotta defend Cava at all costs. By far the best fast food. We're gonna give you all of the details. He kind of issued a non denial denial yesterday on Fox News. Says a lot of interesting stuff, not just about Tom Homan, but actually about bribery laws, which is something not enough people paid attention to when a Supreme Court case happened last year. We're also gonna talk about the economy. Ryan actually pulled some excellent stuff. A retiring GOP congressman worrying about tariffs and loss of jobs as well as some other TR data, including the Trump administration delaying an inflation report. We're talking about H1BS. Absolute chaos and interesting new order from the Trump administration. At first thinking that there would be a $100,000 annual fee for H1B visa holders, retracting that people were literally on planes considering getting off the plane. It's a total craziness. But there's, you know, some there, there. And we've talked about H1BS, I think, in a nuanced way on the show before. We're also gonna talk about Venezuela. These are. These two next ones are Ryan specials. We're gonna talk about Vene. Trump saying he has caught Venezuelan militias training for domestic terrorism purposes, potentially flashing red light there on a potential regime change operation. And then finally, Ryan, speaking of regime change, there is a new leader in Syria. He is of course the former leader of Al Qaeda and had ties to isis. And in probably one of the most insane and extraordinary things Ryan I have ever seen, David Petraeus, the former commander of US forces in Iraq, glazed this man to his face despite being on opposite sides of the Civil War some 20 years ago. It is a perfect distillation of US policy. It is shocking it makes me question why I wasted years of my life covering the war on Al Qaeda and all this. The former CIA director just worrying about whether this al Qaeda guy is getting enough sleep. It's crazy.

[Ryan Grim]

And usually when a CIA handler and his asset meet, it's in a, it's not in public, it's private.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right. Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

This was at the UN on stage. Great call, great call, great call. One piece of news that we're not going to get to cover. But one of the most prominent activists from the Arab Spring, the Egyptian author and activist Allah Abd el Fatah, was released yesterday, pardoned by Sisi. This is absolutely huge news in Egypt and for everybody following that, his mother was on this, who was in London with was on like a 10 month hunger strike and was on the brink of death. So a tiny sliver of good news and sort of like the end of an era. Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

That is interesting actually to think about, you know, social media and the hope the Arab Spring turned out to not have a little bit.

[Ryan Grim]

And they're so comfortable. Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Well, we'll save it for Syria. And the last thing before we get into all of that, Jimmy Kimmel, we just want to make this news. Disney announced Jimmy Kimmel will be returning to his show tomorrow or sorry, today on Tuesday, Tuesday evening, Emily and Ryan or sorry, Emily and Crystal will cover that extensively tomorrow. Thank you by the way, to everybody who's been supporting the show. We really appreciate it. BreakingPoints.com if you are able, as part of our premium benefits, you sometimes get early episodes and today I'll actually be recording an episode with Tucker Carlson about his new 911 documentary that will drop exclusively for our premium subscribers tonight and will be made available at some point tomorrow for everybody else if you can't afford it, no worries, just please hit subscribe on our YouTube channel. And if you're listening to this as a podc, send the show to a friend. But breakingpoints.com if you want early access to episodes like that or our AMA yesterday as well as the full show and all of that jazz. So breakingpoints.com if you can support us as well as get early access to that Tucker Carlson interview. So let's go ahead and get to autism. Some extraordinary remarks here from President Trump in a press conference late yesterday at the White House about tylenol Joining with Dr. J. Bhattacharya, Dr. Macri, RFK Jr. The Secretary of Health and Human Services as well as and other medical professionals making a grand pronouncement that they believe that Tylenol while Tylenol use while pregnant can lead to autism. Here's what they had to say.

[Ryan Grim]

Be very careful with what he says, and he should, but I'm not so careful with what I say. But you have certain groups, the Amish as an example, they have essentially no autism. First, effective immediately, the FDA will be notifying physicians that the use of said. Well, let's see how we say that. Acetaminophen. Acetaminophen. Is that okay? Which is basically commonly known as Tylenol during pregnancy can be associated with a very increased risk of autism. Don't do it. Break up your visits to the doctors. Break them up. Do it in five, if you can. Now. It's inconvenient. It's inconvenient. Oh, you got to have to go back another year later. You're going to go back each year for four years, five years, three years. Just break it up. Break it up. Because it's too much liquid. Too many different things are going into that baby at too big, at too big a number. The size of this thing, when you look at it, it's like 80 different vaccines and beyond vaccines and 80. Then you give that to a little kid. This country is going through what parts of the world are going through. And I will say there are parts of the world that don't take Tylenol. I mean, there's a rumor, and I don't know if it's so or not, that Cuba, they don't have Tylenol because they don't have the money to fight Tylenol, and they have virtually no autism. Okay, tell me about that one. And there are other parts of the world where they don't have Tylenol, where they don't have autism. That tells you a lot.

[Krystal Ball]

So that's a small flavor of the Trump press conference. There was a lot more than that. Yeah, there was a hell of a lot more, though. We just did our best to kind of distill it down. I guess I'll try to focus on the seriousness of it. Because while it is Trump being Trump, it's also a major pronouncement from his administration. The administration released a new fact sheet basically requiring a new warning label on Tylenol, which is currently the only pain reliever which doctors recommend to pregnant women for pain relief. This has been the center of, not controversy per se, but of study now for quite some time. Ryan, we have pulled all the data that we can get into, but do you have anything you wanna say before we play RFK Junior?

[Ryan Grim]

No, let's go to rfk. Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay. All right, well, let's play RFK junior Again. I wanna lay out the administration's case and then I'll present you the other side. Let's take a listen to rfk. HHS wants therefore to encourage clinicians to.

[Ryan Grim]

Exercise their best judgment and the use of acetaminophen for fevers and pain in pregnancy by prescribing the lowest effective dose for the shortest necessary duration and only when treatment is required. Furthermore, thanks to also to the politicization of science, the safety of acetaminophen against the risk of neurodevelopmental disorders in young children has never been validated. Prudent medicine therefore suggests caution and acetaminophen used by young children, especially since strong evidence also has associated it with liver toxicity. Some studies have also found the use of acetaminophen in children can potentially prolong viral illnesses. FDA will drive new research to safeguard mothers, children and families. In addition to a possible acetaminophen connection to autism for pregnant women, infants and toddlers, our research has revealed that folate deficiency in a child's brain can lead to autism. We have also identified an exciting therapy that may benefit large numbers of children who suffer from autism. Peer reviewed literature has documented that up to 60% of folate deficient children with ASD can have improved verbal communications if given leucovorin.

[Krystal Ball]

For those who are just listening, asd, you're not familiar with the term, is autism spectrum disorder. And so what they cite is largely a couple of studies, including one that just came out from Harvard University in which they said that there may be a link. I do think it's important. I spent a lot of time actually on this very question when my wife was pregnant and we both went, went through all of the data. The single best data set that exists is actually this one. We can go ahead and put this up here on the screen. This is from a study of some two and a half million children. What they looked at was acetaminophen use during pregnancy and a children's risk of autism, ADHD and intellectual disability. Their end result that they ultimately found was quote, to address unobserved confounding matched full sibling pairs were also analyzed. Sibling control analyses found no evidence acetaminophen use during pregnancy was associated with autism. So let me just reiterate what that said. It said that in this population based study, models without sibling control identified marginally increased risk of autism and ADHD associated with acetaminophen use during pregnancy. However, analyses of matched full sibling pairs then found no evidence of increased risk of autism with a hazard ratio, ADHD or intellectual disability. So basically to break that down from doctor speak and I've spoken with, with a couple doctors in preparation for this segment is that if you look at it without sibling control, you could see it. If you don't look, if you look, if you don't look at it with sibling control you could see it. If you do look at it with sibling control, then it largely disappears. And so I do think that's important. There is also a chart here that we should put here up on the screen. This is one specifically about Tylenol use. Does it increase the risk of various neuro developmental conditions? Same thing results on basis 2.4 million Swedish children born between 95 and 2019. And you can actually see the chart there and the flat use of no use, low dose, medium dose and high dose. If you're just looking for the association. And they say the only problem according to the person who put this chart together is quote, the only problem with doing that is that we have strong causal evidence that Tylenol does not cause autism. Exposed siblings are no more likely to be autistic than the unexposed. I do think this is medically a very important thing because Ryan, as you know, your wife has been through way more pregnancies than mine. But I mean, one of the things that they do tell you is don't use, you know, NSAIDs, like things like ibuprofen or other over the counter pain relievers. And one of the messages that the President kept hammering home was just grin and bear it. Which, you know, look, I mean, it's kind of barbaric if you ask me because one of the things here, and I'm not an expert on Tylenol, I'm willing to believe I will say this. This is my own personal bias based on some emerging evidence around acetaminophen, NSAIDs and all these other things is people pop these things like candy and you just really have no idea what's going on. Like you take them all the time. There are people who take two ibuprofen or Advil or whatever in the morning and they don't think about the effect on the gut microbiome or all these other things. And I'm just not willing to believe it's costless. I don't believe that for any medication. So I would say in general, my personal view was, you know, use it as little as possible. But to say don't use it at all. I don't know. I don't see the current evidence for that. That's in the data. And by the way, they didn't release any new data. They're pointing very specifically to the studies I laid out. They point to this study. They also point to that new Harvard University study, as I said. However, the doctors and the researchers who I spoke to told me that that did not have as many good controls in it for its research. But, you know, I'm going to present the case for it for what it is. Just broadly, though, it seems very simplistic to what is obviously a multifactorial rise in autism.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And one fear I have out of this is that people will see all of this coverage of the dangers of Tylenol when it comes to autism or other intellectual disabilities for pregnant women, and then they will move to aspirin, you know, or Advil. But even as Trump himself said at the press conference yesterday, he said, we know for sure those are dangerous. So he said, don't take those. And he's right about that. Yeah. So don't forget that. Now we're talking when we get into the realm of Tylenol, he's saying, well, we don't really know, but you might want to be cautious. Sager's probably right. We don't know. And so just popping them, like, no.

[Krystal Ball]

One can say it's totally safe. Right. It's like. And even that question of totally safe is not really a perfect way of talking about it. I mean, it's like that Thomas Sowell quote. It's like it's. Everything is trade offs. Right. Like everything is a trade off. If you're in a lot of pain, you have a lot of fever. Well, taking is gonna make you feel better. One of the things. Yeah, go ahead.

[Ryan Grim]

Not just feel better. We do know for a fact that a fever has risks.

[Krystal Ball]

Exactly. Right. Fever has risk. Right. You have inflammation risk. I think brain swelling is particularly a high fever. Right. And then, you know, in general, I don't know. This is one where my broad takeaway from this thing is you shouldn't trust RFK Jr. You definitely should not trust Donald Trump for his personal medical advice. What I actually thought was fascinating from his press conference is he kept being like, this is just me saying this. It may not be the people behind them. Because actually, if you read the text of the FDA order, they basically cite what we just said. They're like, yeah, it may. You should be careful. Consult with your doctor. But Trump straight up was like, don't take Tylenol. He said it over and over and over again. He's like, do not take Tylenol. He also talked about spreading out the number of vaccine doses. That's another different. We can return to that. This is a whole other conversation. But let's stick with Tylenol specifically and autism, because this is an interesting question. It's one Crystal and I actually touched on in our AMA yesterday. The prevailing theories, and they actually kind of fall into different ideological camps. Number one, the most prevalent is diagnostic, as in we just diagnose a hell of a lot more people and have expanded the definition of autism. Whereas 20, 30 years ago, you'd been like, yeah, they're a little off, right? You know, something like that. And now. Yeah, exactly. You know, and now actually one of the moms who spoke at the press conferences even said, I don't like this spectrum. She's like, you're either fully autistic or you're just not. Right. And I know that, again, I'm not in an autistic family or whatever. Like, I'm not gonna sit here and police the terms. I'm just like, we're dealing with reality. The point is, is that diagnostics is one of the prevailing theories of the medical community. Now, Maha and RFK Jr have long attacked diagnostics because what they're saying is that diagnostics itself absolves environmental and pharmaceutical potential causes of autism. What I find very frustrating about both of those is that they're deeply simplistic. It's obviously multifactorial. It could be diagnostic. It's obvious, obviously potential, some level of that, some level of diagnostic. The other is going to be changes in maternal and paternal age. Right. So, for example, you know, you have 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 year olds in the US having children. I mean, come on, like to men.

[Ryan Grim]

The men in particular.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, men in particular. Right. You don't need to be a doctor to say, yeah, it's a little weird. It obviously has never happened before. That's probably going to change some things. Same with maternal age. Right. So the average birthing age in the US now is like, much higher than it was, let's say, in the 1950s. Again, you know, geriatric pregnancy is not a term that should be used to put anybody down. I wanna make that very, very clear. But it is a medical term that is used for specific purposes. Right, let's leave that on the side then. There is also, again, this is where Maha really focuses on pharmaceutical and environmental. So what I mean by that is largely vaccines Pain relievers, environmental. There's all kinds of different theories. Microplastics, pesticides, like you said, herbicide, et cetera, processed food. What I always find frustrating is we never talk about obesity. I mean one of the things that's happened in this country has been massively and morbidly obese, pre diabetic and or diabetic of the population. And I mentioned this in our AMA yesterday, but a woman I really respect, Dr. Rhonda Patrick had done, she put out some initial research on obesity and then how that affects both the mother for fertility but also for the genetic expression. I'm getting into like stuff which again none of this is proven so and also take everything I say medically with a grain of salt too. But what they pointed to was that there was some like limited evidence here about genetic expression. And it makes sense. If you are obese and you smoke marijuana, THC and you drink alcohol and you have very low testosterone because you don't sleep a lot and you don't work out and you don't lift any weights, of course your sperm count is going to be dramatically diminished. And you know, the DNA and all the, if you think about it, it's like almost like radiate. It's again, not one to one. What I'm saying though is that bad lifestyle choices, which, let's be honest, the vast majority of Americans currently practice, if you're using all of these substances and you are, you know, in a healthy lifestyle or eating a healthy diet, that also could have a major impact. I mean they talk about folate there, right? And that's one and interesting where almost all of that could be cured by diet. Like I, you know, I was looking into the again I spent so much time on this when my wife was pregnant and this is part of the reason why prenatal vitamins are really important, right, for folic acid because in the very early days of fetal development that's when they need the folic acid the most. For I, I think it's their brain stem, the fur, the fetus. But there's also iron levels and other things where if you're not eating a very, very balanced diet and eating like wild caught Alaskan fish and making which when you're in your first trimester, you're living off saltine crackers and puking your guts out, not easy. So my point is just that I find the lack of nuance here from the government frankly appalling because I think think it just pushes more of the burden on mothers who it's hard, man, I watched her go through it. It's fucking hard. I mean, you know, especially the way our society is currently structured when they're working in the first and second trimester, even in the third trimester and they're having difficulty walking and you know, people, other people who are childless in the office, they don't care and they're asking, you know, have no consideration for any of this or taking the subway or the Metro and walking 10,000 steps. Try doing that whenever your belly is, you know, all the way out over here. So I just, I find like this honestly kind of appalling from the government.

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[Ryan Grim]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Ryan Grim]

A treasure trove of bananas has been stolen and it's up to Donkey Kong and his buddy Pauline to get them back. This unlikely duo is going on a world smashing adventure. Using DK's destructive abilities to explore an underground world and the power of Pauline singing to activate wild transformations. Donkey Kong Bonanza available now. Rated everyone 10 and up only on Nintendo Switch 2 game and systems sold separately. They tried to work a little nuance into the into the press statements that they put out. It looks like you can almost see if you Squint and the tug of war going on. And we can maybe add this in post, but. So the first paragraph of their press statement seems like it was written by rfk, second one by some of the lower level doctors. They say the U.S. food and Drug Administration today initiated the process for a label change for acetaminophen, Tylenol and similar products to reflect evidence suggesting that the use of acetaminophen by pregnant women may be associated with an increased risk of neurological conditions such as autism and ADHD in children. That's the first paragraph. The second paragraph then goes. It is important to note that while an association between acetaminophen and neurological conditions has been described in many studies. Notice that language. A causal relationship has not been established and there are contrary studies in the scientific literature. It is also noted that acetaminophen is the only over the counter drug approved for use to treat fevers during pregnancy. And high fevers in pregnant women can pose a risk to their children. Additionally, aspirin and ibuprofen have well documented adverse impacts on the fetus. Very much screams like the science were like, all right, if you're going to do this, let us write the second paragraph.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, exactly. And actually the only person who kind of made any sense during that, in my opinion, was Marty and Jay Bhattacharya. So we can go ahead and play some of what they said because they pointed to a potential, you know, new drug for potential treatment of autism. And I did check with a couple of doctors and there's relatively mixed evidence, but the new FDA approval and all of that, especially with coverage under chips and Medicaid, seems like, you know, listen, why try something if it has decent enough evidence behind it? But second from Jay Bhattacharya was like, we're gonna throw a lot of money at these studies. That was the solution the whole time, right? Like, at least again to me, because relying on observational Swedish study or this Harvard, it's like these are not run currently massive data sets other than the Swedish one, which didn't find the link. And it also was not controlled properly or funded by the government. Like if you just cut all these mRNA, which, fine, you should at least try and channel it, you know, into these same things to find some scientific evidence and then see where the data takes you. But it seemed to me like they started off with conclusion that they were under kind of intense pressure on the autism question. They didn't want to go fully down the road of pulling the MMR vaccine or at least for now, you know, that's still kind of up in the air. Again, separate question, which we could spend hours on here if we wanted to, but broadly, it just seemed to me like they were under the gun. They needed to come up with something. They needed a big press conference, you know, maybe to distract from certain other things that are going on here. And this was like their big banner to start a conversation. So with that, let me play this A6. Let's take a listen. Today, the FDA is filing a Federal Register notice to change the label on an exciting treatment called prescription leucovorin so that it can be available to children with autism. You know, autism may also be due to a autoimmune reaction to a folate receptor on the brain, not allowing that important vitamin to get into the brain cells.

[Ryan Grim]

It's a fairly established mature pathway.

[Krystal Ball]

Again, we have a duty to let doctors and the public know we are going to change the label to make it available. Hundreds of thousands of kids, in my opinion, will benefit. One study found that with kids with autism and chronic folate deficiency, two thirds of kids with autism symptoms had improvement.

[Ryan Grim]

And some market improvement.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, so that's the new drug that they are touting here, a 7. We can go ahead and put it up there on the screen. I apologize if I butcher this. I'm not good with drug names. But it's leucovorin inside the drug giving new hope there. To quote autism parents, they're saying that it's, quote, an answer to autism. And it's a form of vitamin B9, also known as folate, that's been prescribed to protect healthy cells from the toxic side effects of previously used in chemotherapy and to enhance chemo and to treat cerebral folate deficiency. Folate, as Dr. Macri is saying, there is needed for brain development. And they have found that some children with neurodevelopmental disorders show signs of cerebral folate deficiency. A shortage of B9 in the brain. Again, I am not a doctor. Do not take medical advice from me. I wouldn't take medical advice from them either. That's part of the difficulty, I think, of this entire kind of conversation.

[Ryan Grim]

I mean, that's what chatgpt is for, right?

[Krystal Ball]

Well, okay, let's talk about that. And this is one of the the I hope, maybe potential benefits of COVID Now, a lot of the doctors and all these people are upset. I read everything for myself now at this point, and I'll take their consideration. I will not dismiss it out of hand. I probably, you know, more biased earlier. Let's Say two years ago, really in the heights of the COVID mania, I would have been like, I don't believe a word that you people say. But you know, presented with this, I'm like, well, I don't know, that's the counter argument. I'm like, well, yeah, right. So it's like, maybe I'm gonna do my own research. And by doing my own research and all that and you read the data and the trials and stuff for themselves. Actually, the Swedish study is a good reminder to people. Something I tried to do was I stopped looking at America because the question is always about corruption, either ideological or pharma. So I would look to countries where they have universal healthcare. They largely are not woke. So I'm mainly shouting out Japan here. And then I would look at their health outcomes, right? And I would compare US advisories. Sushi is a great one, right? You know, no sushi or any of that. I'm like, well, you know, the Japanese are pretty smart and they eat a lot of sushi and raw fish. So what's going on over there? And they're like, you're an idiot if you know everyone here eats sushi, right? Again, don't take medical advice from me. Read the book and read the guidance and all that for yourself. But on their vaccine schedule, you can compare the U. It's easy actually with ChatGPT or any of these, compare the US vaccine schedule to the Japanese vaccine schedule. You can make up your mind for yourself. You can also go and take a look at various other European countries. Keep in mind a lot of these pharma companies are European based, so there's still some potential for corruption. But by and large some of their data is better than ours or they publish more population wide stuff and they have less ideological kind of influence going on there. So that's part of the difficulty for me personally, Ryan. Like I saw the American College of Obstetricians come out and be like, this is dangerous and all of that. But considering how we've seen them previously talk about the COVID vaccine or I mean, Crystal and I got in a nice big debate yesterday on trans. But like considering some of the stuff that let's say the American Academy of Pediatrics has said there too, I'm like, yeah, I don't trust you at all, right? So like, I really think a lot of parents, they need more information and the government, it did not do that today or yesterday in their announcement. They did not give people, in my opinion, more information. They didn't say they were gonna study they made a declarative statement and as you said, maybe the doctors wrote it a little bit differently, but the president straight up said, don't take Tylenol.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, the headline is clear.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, he said, don't take it. Which, by the way, their stock is now plunged. Let's put a five up here on the screen. Tylenol maker Ken Vu has plunged on reports at the White House's plan to link the drug to autism. The News spurred an 8% sell off in shares yesterday for Kenvu. Their shares, I believe, are not yet open. While we were recording this, so. So we'll keep you guys updated. The company's now year to date loss of 21%. So I don't know. By the way, it does remind me there was a great documentary called the Tylenol Killer, which was super interesting on Netflix. So that's the last thing. Anything you want to say, more on Tylenol, autism, any of that?

[Ryan Grim]

No, I think that, I think that pretty much covers it.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Yeah, I think it's a sad state because one of the things that they cite that RFK cited in particular was like the grief of a lot of these parents. And I think, I think, first of all, I think the medical establishment has done a lot of these people a disservice by saying, like not lying to them, but like kind of lecturing them, being like, it is what it is, you know, get over it. Right. And no parent, especially as a new parent, is going to, quote, get over it. They're going to want answers. That doesn't mean that you have to give them what they want to hear or, you know, a easy explanation. That's kind of what I think the government did here. And I also think that they should have considered that for people, for women who are pregnant in America today, it's really not easy, especially people who are working. And so for them, I do really fear, like you said, Ryan, this will kind of spur a level of hopelessness of I can't take Tylenol. The last thing you want when you're pregnant is stress. Right. And now it's about Tylenol, Advil, diet, prenatal. There's already so much pressure on these people. And what I would say is make it easier, you know, at a system wide level. And let's not put all the blame on the mothers or all of the responsibility necessarily on them. I think it should be on all of us as a society, medical system, et cetera.

[Ryan Grim]

Okay, so, yeah, go ahead. Rachel Bedard has an interesting point on here, which Is I'm curious, for your take on this, that Both Trump and RFK Jr. Were kind of boxed in by their very early declarations that they were gonna basically get to the bottom of this.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes.

[Ryan Grim]

And had to come up with.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I know exactly what you're talking about. I read it this morning.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. Had to come up with something. And it would have been much more damaging if they just concocted some vaccine link which is far even more spurious than.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, what it would do is they would have to prove it. Right. Is that for this. They didn't even really prove it. They just said may. And by the way, I mean, look, Tylenol use, I do think could be important, especially if you're suffering, you know, from a lot of pain. So talk to your doctor.

[Ryan Grim]

Think of this as, like, harm reduction.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. That's kind of what I was looking at. That's.

[Ryan Grim]

That was her point from getting over.

[Krystal Ball]

Your skis, that if what they really wanted to do and what the, you know, the Maha people desperately want is they want the MMR vaccine to straight up just be polled. And Trump even basically said he's like, I think the MMR should be split up. I think it has problems. Get your m. Whatever. Yeah, exactly. I mean, let's put his comments to the side. Like an actual guidance from the cdc, the fda, and the US Government from HHS telling doctors and all that pull the MMR vaccine. That is actually like just a whole other level, because not only would you have to prove it, but then you would have any potential consequences on your hands around epidemics all over the place. Right. And look, I'm not an expert on mmr. I have read all the anti Vax books. I also read all the Pro Vax books. I recommend that you do that, too. So you can actually, frankly, both have some horrible argumentation and really do address a lot of each other's points. One thing I think is critical on this, again, is that more information and more data. One of the things RFK pledged was about more data. But the thing is, is that making macro decisions for the entire nation without any new data, that seems a big problem for me.

[Ryan Grim]

So they threw Tylenol under the bus versus Tylenol.

[Krystal Ball]

We'll see. I mean, listen, I mean, they laid the ground pretty hard on MMR and on the rest of them. And so my response would be the same one that they give to the vaccine companies, which is true. Prove it. Right. Prove it. So there you go. That's what I think the standard of evidence should be there in science.

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[Ryan Grim]

Hello.

[Krystal Ball]

We got one play. Everything we work for comes down to this quick question.

[Ryan Grim]

Speaking of workouts, how would you rate your athletic program?

[Krystal Ball]

Bro, we're in the middle of the state championship.

[Ryan Grim]

Oh, so like a B then?

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Dude, get out of our huddle.

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Ryan Grim]

Off the field.

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[Ryan Grim]

How'd he even get in here?

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[Krystal Ball]

All right, let's get to Homan, shall we? This is, this is pretty crazy and it does tell us a lot about the country where we are today because it's not just Tom Homan here who by the way, allegedly because he denies it, but one of the things kind of denies strikes to the heart of bribery laws in this country and how basically bribery is legal after the supreme court ruled in 2024. Let's go and put this up here on the screen. You had a new report from NBC News. They say Tom Homan was investigated for accepting $50,000 from undercover FBI agents. Trump's DOJ shut it down. The FBI justice officials closed the investigation of calling it a deep state probe in early 2025. The details are as such quote, in an undercover operation Last year, the FBI recorded Tom Homan, now the White House border czar, accepting $50,000 in cash after indicating he could, quote, help the agents, who were posing as business executives, win government contracts in a second Trump administration. FBI and Justice Department plan to wait to see whether Homan would deliver on his alleged promise once he became the nation's top immigration official. But the case indefinitely stalled after Trump became president in January. In recent weeks, Trump appointees have officially closed the investigation. It's unclear what reasons FBI and DOJ gave for shutting down, but a Trump Justice Department appointee called the case a, quote, deep state probe. The investigation was launched in West Texas in the summer of 2024 after a separate investigation claimed that Homan was soliciting payments in exchange for awarding contracts for Trump should he win the presidential election. The U.S. attorney's office in the Western District of Texas, working with the FBI, asked the DOJ to join its ongoing probe into the border czar and the former border czar and the former acting Director of Immigration and ice, Tom Homan, based on the evidence of payment from the FBI undercover agents. What they said is that Homan, who was act served as the acting director of ICE early in Trump's first term, was openly claimed during the 2024 campaign he would play a prominent role. Thus, during the investigation, they allegedly, on September 20, with hidden cameras recording the scene at a meeting spot in Texas, caught him accepting some $50,000 in bills, according to this internal summary. They then took the matter no further in the final months of 2024. Now, one of the reasons why I think that is important is that it was obviously in September, in the lead up to the presidential election, but that the quid pro quo, if you will, had to be proven because of the way that the bribery laws are written. Simply accepting cash does not in and of itself mean that it's bribery because you actually have cash to deliver. Okay. Because we've changed the way that battery works.

[Ryan Grim]

You can take a bribery works.

[Krystal Ball]

Tom Homan did address this last night on Fox News. Here's what he had to say. I want to give you a chance to address this article that came out over the weekend, and it was on our always reliable MSNBC. And they said that you took $50,000 in cash in a bag from an undercover FBI agent to help them win government contracts in Trump's second term. The DOJ said they concluded there was no criminal wrongdoing, but nevertheless, that story is out there. And I imagine you want to respond to that.

[Ryan Grim]

Absolutely. Look, I did nothing criminal I did nothing illegal. And there's hit piece after hit piece after hit piece. And I'm glad the FBI and DOJ came out and said, and, you know, said that nothing illegal happened and nothing, you know, no criminal activity you're talking about. Guys spent 34 years enforcing them. I mean, I left a very successful business that I ran to come back and work for a government again. I'm back on a government paycheck. Not only did I sacrifice my family sacrifices, I make sacrifices every day. I got more death threats than anybody. I got a security team around me. But guess what? My kids don't, my wife don't. I mean, I haven't lived with my wife in months because I don't want her to be here right now with all the threats. So after all the sacrifices, after serving my nation for all these years, they want to come out and dirty me up. It's not going to end. There's a hit piece on me every two weeks. But keep coming because you know what? Tom Holman isn't going anywhere. Tom Holman isn't shutting up and Tom Holm is going to keep doing what he's doing. Cuz working with President Trump's the greatest honor in my life. We're making this country safer again every day and we're going to keep doing it.

[Krystal Ball]

Kind of a non denial denial there because what he didn't say is I never took the money. What he said is I did nothing criminal, I did nothing illegal, which, I mean, technically true, right?

[Ryan Grim]

So far.

[Krystal Ball]

So far, yeah. It does raise the question though, about, about those tapes and whether they exist honestly or not. So, you know, if you're in the FBI and it's time to put up or shut up, you should release it. If not, I mean, according to them, they've got it on camera and they've got it on tape. Now maybe the FBI listen, you know, you wouldn't put it past this FBI to delete it. But the reason why it is important is that Homan has always stressed his impartiality and his government service and that he would never accept any quid pro quo or anything in service of his potential service in government. Here's what we previously said on Bill Maher.

[Ryan Grim]

If you want to send a message to the whole world, cross the border. Legally it's a crime, but it's okay. Have due process, get order removed by an immigration judge, don't leave, it's okay, just don't commit another crime, you're good to go. If that's the message we send to the whole world, people are going to keep coming. And let me tell you something. There's a whole illegal immigration is not a victim of crime. But that's why you have to show there's consequences. Because if you send a message there's no consequences and you want to reward illegal behavior, that not gonna stop.

[Krystal Ball]

So that's the question there about rewarding behavior if you don't show any consequences. And then finally, the White House itself also issued a flat denial that it never took place ever. A little bit again, different than what Tom Homan said. Take a listen to Caroline Levitt. Did the president ask the Justice Department to close the case? And does Homan have to return the $50,000? Well, Mr. Homan never took the $50,000 that you're referring to. So you should get your facts straight, number one. Number two, this was another example of the weaponization of the Biden Department of Justice against one of President Trump's strongest and most vocal supporters in the midst of a presidential campaign. You had FBI agents going undercover to try and entrap one of the president's.

[Ryan Grim]

Top allies and supporters, someone who they.

[Krystal Ball]

Knew very well would be taking a government position months later. Mr. Homan did absolutely nothing wrong. And even the President's Department of Justice, even Cash Patel's FBI looked into this just to make sure. They had a number of different prosecutors and FBI agents who looked into this. They found zero evidence of illegal activity or criminal wrongdoing in the White House. And the president stand by Tom Homan 100% because he did absolutely nothing wrong. And he is a brave public servant who has done a phenomenal job in helping the president shut down the border. They say Mr. Homan never took the $50,000. So, Ryan, that seems to be the crux of the question.

[Ryan Grim]

So I think there was a string on the cash, and so when he wasn't looking, they kind of reeled it back in. I do want to talk about the bribery laws, but first, my spidey sense is up on this story for a couple of reasons here. Did you notice who broke the story?

[Krystal Ball]

Ken Denley. No. Or. Sorry.

[Ryan Grim]

He's the second byline. Carol Lenning. Yeah. Who for 25 years she works for.

[Krystal Ball]

The Washington Post, was the Washington Post.

[Ryan Grim]

Star investigative reporter with three Pulitzer Prizes under her belt. Now she. So she leaves the Washington Post after this long, storied career, and then within a month has published this massive story about Tom Homan. Obviously, she did not leave the Washington Post and then have some source say, I was just waiting for you. To go to MSNBC to give you this incredible tip. And then she writes it with Ken Delaney. No, she clearly had the story for some reason. She did not write it at the Washington Post. There is obviously a story there.

[Krystal Ball]

That's a good flag.

[Ryan Grim]

Why did she not write it at the Washington Post? You should investigate that separately. In the original reporting, it said that, that Homan was caught accidentally, kind of. He was kind of swept up in a broader FBI investigation. And so this happens in September 2024. Even though it's, you know, they don't have, let's say they don't have the crime or the indictment yet, they can still leak it. It's September of the election year. This is just be a big problem for Trump. They decided not do that, so they didn't leak it. And he was swept up kind of accidentally by chance in this investigation. That means whoever they were actually. Whoever or whatever they were actually going after was much bigger than Tom Homan.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, interesting. What do you think?

[Ryan Grim]

Tom Holman's a big fish.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, he is big.

[Ryan Grim]

So what kind of fish is bigger than Tom Homan? And if Lenning had this for a significant amount of time, chances are not just there's a story within the Washington Post, but she too was probably hunting, like, what's the bigger story here? Bigger than, like, this is a good story.

[Krystal Ball]

Like, see, for people who are listening or watching, that is very important for the inside to kind of TikTok of how this stuff happened because this happened a year ago, right? At this point. So almost. Almost a year ago.

[Ryan Grim]

Wow.

[Krystal Ball]

It's a year ago September 23rd that we're recording right now. So how long has she sat on it? You would think if you get caught on camera, and I'm Biden, I'm leaking that tomorrow, you know, before they. So, yeah, what's going on with that? Right. I mean, I'm not saying that's a just thing. It shouldn't work that way. But let's be honest, in the lead up to the election, I mean, Trump.

[Ryan Grim]

Would leak it, right?

[Krystal Ball]

Of course he would. Yeah. I mean, you kind of would be an idiot not to.

[Ryan Grim]

They are idiots.

[Krystal Ball]

Not so you. Yeah. Wow. So, yeah, what were they chasing? That was bigger. Also, did you note the jurisdiction? West Texas?

[Ryan Grim]

Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

That's weird, right? And the reason why that's weird to me is like, that is deep red country. That's like R +55 country. So even the U.S. attorney, and I get it, they're political, probably Democrats, et cetera. But you know, even there, that's like some sensitivity and the FBI agents and jurisdiction and all that. So, yeah, we have to try and put it together.

[Ryan Grim]

If I had to. Yeah. I have to get. They must have been running buck wild in West Texas. Assuming.

[Krystal Ball]

Which is classic for West Texas.

[Ryan Grim]

Exactly.

[Krystal Ball]

Culturally appropriate. Just.

[Ryan Grim]

Just assuming like that they're on a landman and like, there are no laws. They're just gonna bring the National Guard out to.

[Krystal Ball]

There are no laws out there, Ryan, because there's no lawmen. All right? That's the main lesson of landmen.

[Ryan Grim]

And so somehow some lawmen got out there were like, whoa, this is still the United States of America. And then somebody was like, actually, no, it's not.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

This is West Texas.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, listen, let's track it. My response is, release the tapes, man. Now we got some more tapes. If you did nothing wrong, release it. Let's see it. Let's see what happened, your interaction with the FBI agents and all that. People have a right to know whether the people in charge are corrupt, but plot twist, they are. But, you know, look, also, it's cartoonish. Anybody who is dumb enough to accept $50,000 in cash in a kava bag, like, you have no reasonable. You shouldn't even be close to power. Okay, Right.

[Ryan Grim]

Because one argument would be, well, it's a consulting contract.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. In cash.

[Ryan Grim]

Cash in a kava bag.

[Krystal Ball]

In a kava bag. Yeah. Right. The only thing I want in my kava bag are my harissa chips. Real kava heads. Know the shadows.

[Ryan Grim]

They're so good.

[Krystal Ball]

They're so good. They're so good. All right, let's talk about bribery laws. I want you specifically to explain some of this down to me. Let's put this up here on the screen from Skoda splog. This is June 2024. We covered this heavy at the time. Actually, the Supreme Court has now limited scope of anti bribery law. So what they ruled is that the federal anti bribery law does not make it a crime for state and local officials to, quote, accept a gratuity for acts that they have already taken. They wrote for a 6 justice majority that the state and local governments officials already have to regulate gifts to officials. So the federal law does not supplement those state and local laws by subjecting some 19 million state local officials up to 10 years in federal prison for accepting even commonplace gratuity. But this builds on other Supreme Court decisions, including that Virginia governor case about. What was it, Bob McDonnell. Right. Where it eventually was overturned because the standards now are. It's kind of like defamation for media. Like, you have to prove that not only were they accepting the money, they were doing so for an explicit quid pro quo. That that quid pro quo was real, it was promised and it was deliverable. And all of this is being caught on audio, on video where they're like, I am accepting this so that you will get X, Y and Z. It's no longer even like the original Menendez case where it's obviously corrupt to be flying around on private jets and.

[Ryan Grim]

Then help a guy out.

[Krystal Ball]

And help a guy out. Yeah, I mean, come on. Like you would know that for anybody. But that didn't rise to the level. Yeah, well, that case, I think they were found guilty because it was a.

[Ryan Grim]

Little different in the McDonald case. They also redefined what a quote, official act is, if you remember.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right.

[Ryan Grim]

So important what McConnell did, he like made phone calls for the guy. He had like a meeting at the governor's mansion for him. This is basically a supplement maker. Gave him like 175 grand worth of gifts. And in exchange, McDonnell and also arranged meetings with lawmakers that he wanted. So McDonnell calls up and says, hey, like, my guy's got a problem. Can you meet with him and you know, fix this problem? And what the Supreme Court. And they did it and he paid for that. What the Supreme Court says none of those are official. Actual act. It's like what the governor arranging a meeting with the lawmen.

[Krystal Ball]

The scope of the definition in all of these cases makes it almost impossible.

[Ryan Grim]

You have to have a contract.

[Krystal Ball]

I was talking with Crystal about this and her theory was that one of the reasons Biden and them didn't bring the case was the same thing. He's like, well, he didn't deliver the quid. Well, we're not going to win. Right?

[Ryan Grim]

What official government official.

[Krystal Ball]

Right, Exactly. He's not even official. It's. I don't know. It's sick. Honestly. Honestly, the way that we've basically legalized corruption here. But whatever. So that's the story. You can track it for what it is. Maybe it's a deep state it job or not easy way to prove it. Just release the tape. Just tell us what's in the tape. If you're caught on camera accepting the $50,000 cash in kava bag, you're corrupt. In my eyes, that's just maybe not in the eyes of the law. And I think that public officials should of course be held to be the highest standard. If a media official did that and it ever leaked from projects Veritas or whatever, we'd be like hey, come on, what's going on?

[Ryan Grim]

Can't do this.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, we can't do this. You're bringing people the news and it's like 10,000 times less important than actually running the government.

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Ryan Grim]

That's my son.

[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

All right, let's get over to the economy. We're gonna start here with a story that Ryan flashed Representative Don Bacon from Nebraska sounding the alarm on tariffs potentially showing some other broader problems in the economy. Let's take a listen.

[Ryan Grim]

Most people will tell you this is not emergency power is what he's doing and is it hurting your constituents?

[Krystal Ball]

Yes.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. We heard just yesterday we have a.

[Krystal Ball]

Company that makes combines.

[Ryan Grim]

They're moving all of their manufacturing that makes combines for Canada to Europe. Because of the tariffs from going to US to are too high, they can't compete. So they're going to move all the manufacturing for Canadian combines to Europe. That's hundreds of jobs right there. Iowa and Nebraska are really struggling right now with our farm economy. We're not growing markets for corn and soybeans. The president's making trade deals. But not a single country that I can see has bought more corn or soybeans. And that's what we really need right now. Tariffs aren't working. At least coffee. I mean, I went to bought coffee. When I came back from my apartment, it was up $4. The bag that I buy.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

People, that's not a success right there.

[Krystal Ball]

Would you make of that, Ryan? Don Bacon, I mean, let's contextualize him. He is, you know, to say Republican. It's like moderate republic.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Not. Come on, not moderate, like massive liberal Republican. Yeah, there you go. No, but it's because it's not social. It's like pro Ukraine, neocon, low taxes, all of that. So I just want to contextualize that for the audience. That said, any retiring Republican has a lot more ability to speak freely. Ask Thom Tillis. So I'm finding it interesting some of the things they're saying potentially about blinking red lights, not just in the economy in their district and potentially for what that could mean for the midterms.

[Ryan Grim]

And he also has his finger on the pulse of the economy back in Nebraska.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's fair.

[Ryan Grim]

Of course. So I called a couple of combine. There's not many combine manufacturers out in Nebraska. And I found the one because there haven't actually been any news reports.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

And it's. And from the guy that I talked to on the phone, it seemed like they were like, ooh, bacon kind of.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, he kind of let the cat out.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. We were just kind of letting him know, like so. And now all the workers are finding out about it, you know, through him telling Manu Raju on cnn. But the company I can report here is called Klaus.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay.

[Ryan Grim]

It's a German. It's a German company that was founded in like 1913 that opened and Omaha opened its Omaha plant in 1999. Does have hundreds and hundreds of employees. They said they'd get me. They're going to try to get me a statement. We'll see if it comes in by the end of this segment on the details of what's going on. And he said, you know, the impression that he left was that they're closing the entire plant. But if you listen very closely to what he said, the manufacturing that they're doing of combines for Canada is being moved to Europe. So it's not. So if you work in this plant and you work on combines for the domestic market, then your job might be safe, but the plant itself is going to shrink significantly. Because if you are a manufacturer, you are trying to not just build for the American domestic economy, you're trying to export your products, too. And think about it. If you're a European company and you're making for the Canadian market, you want to open a plant up in Nebraska so that after you make the combine, you throw it on a truck. Not cheap to move a combine, you.

[Krystal Ball]

Know, of course, huge. Right.

[Ryan Grim]

But if you're in Nebraska, it's a little bit better. And so for the last 26 years, it made sense for them to. To make combines for the Canadian market right there in Nebraska.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

And now they're saying because of the tariffs, that doesn't make sense anymore. And they already have manufacturing capacity in Europe. They have a France. They have France production. There are German companies, they've got German plants. So they're going to hire more European workers. And then they'll pay a little extra on the shipping just to put them on a boat. Not that much. Get them on the boat and get them over. And then you sell them to Canada and we're out. And those Nebraskans are then out of work at the same time. John Deere caterpillar, all these others have said that they are suffering because farmers can't sell. Farmers keep talking about how by this time of the year they're starting to do soybean harvesting. They have, have usually locked in contracts for two thirds.

[Krystal Ball]

And that's a big Chinese market. Just to explain to people like, China.

[Ryan Grim]

Eats something like two thirds of soybeans in the world, and they buy a huge amount of that from the US and from Brazil. And this year they have booked and it shows how effectively China can control its commercial sector. They have booked zero contracts in the United States. And now all these American farmers are sitting there with these soybeans. So they are then not buying combines and tractors and other capital upgrades for their farms for the coming years. And actually, we can get to. I think the White House responded to that. But we can go to C2 here. Speaking of the kind of economy and Trump's management of it coming apart, it seems like they. Recently he was frustrated by. He was ironically frustrated that the BLS data was showing a weaker economy than he wanted. And there were some revisions that were downward. I say ironically because it was those downer revisions and the lower numbers that finally gave him the thing that he wanted, which was the Federal Reserve interest rate cut. But he was so outraged at the low numbers that he brings in a new BLS guy. Absolutely just objectively unqualified for it. And now he's just out here postponing without explanation.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, BLS said. Here's what they said. The annual release of consumer data set for Tuesday will be rescheduled to a later date. We will update users when more information is available. Users then they said that the report was being delayed to a quote, data quality issue and will now be out October 30th, so the day before Halloween. So I guess it'll be a fun day to actually cover what's going on. As you said, Ryan, very by the way, great job. Very interesting story there on the combine. Kind of a microcosm of some of the ill conceived way that this is all going down on the spending level. We're also seeing some of this put C4 please up on the screen. Low income Americans are slashing spending. Worrying sign for the economy. We talked about this a little bit earlier but just want to continue to hammer it. Home spending is softening in a fragmented way with wealthy Americans also scaling back. In some ways they say US Consumer spending is not just softening overall, it's doing so in a fragmented way. If the benefits and the pressures are not shared broadly, then we're looking not looking at a balanced or healthy state of the US Consumer base. Working class Americans already up against waning wage growth, rising house and electricity costs are burning by any by or burned by any increase in grocery prices tariff fueled increase on household staples, apparel and furniture increasingly dipping into savings, racking up more debt, pulling back on discretionary spending. Meanwhile, those in the middle and upper income tiers are being more strategic about when to make big purchases, buying in bulk and shopping at cheaper retailers. Moody's retail analyst said that the Walmart dollar generals of the world have told investors they are picking up up share among wealthier consumers who are themselves also looking for bargains and that the highest earners still are the only people holding up consumer spending and accounts for some 70% of gross domestic product. So it's a narrower base. The top 10% of earners making $250,000 or more annually account for some 49.2% of spending in the second quarter. That is up from 45.8% during the same period two years. So top 10% spending 50% of the money. Yeah, that's a problem.

[Ryan Grim]

And some of that change is going to be sticky. Those Rich people get into Walmart, they're going to be like, yeah, this place pretty good.

[Krystal Ball]

They'll stick around.

[Ryan Grim]

They got a lot of stuff.

[Krystal Ball]

I would go, it's pretty good. But, you know, it does the job good.

[Ryan Grim]

Isn't the worst, right?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah, I love Walmart.

[Ryan Grim]

But what's really punching people in the face. And we could put up this next element, I think this is C5 are people's electric bills.

[Krystal Ball]

This is really a totally under discussion, disgust thing. Nobody, nobody in mainstream media is talking about this. It's crazy. Yeah, it is totally crazy. If you look.

[Ryan Grim]

And so 2022, you guys have been watching this program, you can probably figure out what happened there. Russia invaded Ukraine and that sent natural gas and broadly, you know, sent electricity prices absolutely skyrocketing. They then let. They then level off after that. You're looking at a confluence of things, data centers and the gobbling up of electricity by AI being a significant part of it. And as we warned about on this program, while Trump was and Republicans were working on the big beautiful bill, they actively stripped away subsidies for clean energy. Over the last several years, clean energy has represented something like 70 to 80% of new energy brought onto the market. So if you're not bringing on that new energy and you're not actually ramping up, like, it's not as if people think Biden was stopping them from drilling or whatever. No, they were drilling like crazy. You're not actually going to drill anymore. And ironically, and Sagar, you'll like this the way that. So we've cut off. We're telling Europe and other places do not buy Russian natural gas. Buy our natural gas, and as a result, we are paying more for natural gas.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, I highlighted this, Ryan. I talked about this until I was blue in the face at the time. I go, why are we exporting natural gas? We're the one. We make all the natural gas. Why are we Russia, Why don't we just use it for ourselves? And they're like, oh, well, that's not how the global commodity markets work. And I was like, okay, okay, well.

[Ryan Grim]

Then tell this chart. That's not how they global commodities market.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, no, they were like, well, you can't do that because it would disrupt the global commodities market, et cetera. And I was like, okay, well then put a tariff or something on it and make them pay more for it at least. Right. To make sure that we have to pay a little bit less. Nope, that's totally out of the question. Let's all just eat it. So that The Donbas region can be 5% more Ukrainian for a month. That's basically what the US policy was. It still drives me nuts. It's not all Ukraine, it was largely back in 2022. But nowadays it's data centers. We gotta go and put C6 up here on the screen because this again is one of the most under discussed issues, which is these data centers are popping up everywhere actually here where we live. Ryan, this is data center capital of the world because of the government and Amazon and all these people have all these contracts. The government has the largest data centers in the world on top of the big tech companies like Meta and Google. Everybody in the AI business, Nvidia, yeah, we have the NSA and all of that. But I'm talking about, it's not just a Northern Virginia problem or a Maryland problem. Now it's like American, it's down in Texas which has its own grid that's separate from everybody else. But what we know is that increasing numbers of states are under major pressure from households and from normal businesses who are saying, hey, these people are buying all the power and our rates are going up like crazy. And these data centers actually strategically, often pension pick, low tax, more rural areas.

[Ryan Grim]

Which why wouldn't you?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, right, if you're for business purposes. But that puts a huge strain on the like Texas specifically. Right, like look, Texas, the grid situation down there, it's a disaster. We can fight about that all day long, whether it was nuclear, renewable, whatever. The point is we need more power. All right? And what is interesting about it is that it's starting to become a ground up campaign of just normal people looking at their electric bills and like, hey, this is out of control, this is totally crazy. And it's California, Texas, Wyoming, you know, I mean places out in the middle of flyover country which often will have a data center park there and then two to three years later they're just watching the spike go up. And actually they have all kinds of other problems too with data centers that are nearby and it's the trade off where of course it's great for Silicon Valley, it's great for Nvidia's stock price, but maybe it's not so great for the rest of us. And you know, maybe if you're going to be buying, if you're going to be building these data centers and supposedly pumping all this money into the local economy, it's like, well maybe you should be required to invest a little bit into power and all this other stuff. But we would never think of that, would We. Ryan.

[Ryan Grim]

No. Yeah. And also, like the way that a lot of these counties work, it's legal for some of these county commissioners to be consultants.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, you're right.

[Ryan Grim]

At the same time. And state lawmakers, like in Florida, for instance, are literally able to draw a salary as a state lawmaker and also be lobbyists for some data center company or whatever. And so then you only have to. If you are building a data center somewhere in wyoming, you give three county commissioners 100 grand each for a consulting fee. What do they do for the consulting fee? They vote yes on your data center. And then the company writes the rules so that they get. Get access. They get privileged access to cheap energy, but also reliable energy. Like, if. Not. I just said if. But you know what? It's when. It's when we don't have the power to feed both the residential homes and the normal businesses in that area. And the data center. The data center will keep running and y' all will get a rolling blackout.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. One the highlighted stats here, which is just to put this in perspective, some of these data centers require more electricity than cities the size of Pittsburgh, Cleveland, or New Orleans make huge factories look tiny by comparison, Pushing policymakers to rethink a system that has spread transmission costs among classes of consumers proportional to electricity use. Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

And then they rethink, and they're like, let me look at that contract. And they're like, oh, this contract is not good for us.

[Krystal Ball]

And it's time for my daily China does it a better way. I follow these AI researchers and others that go to China and they kind of report back for the US Financial industry just to check back. And they're like, hey, what's China doing? And they ask because they presume that everybody else has our problems. They're like, what are you guys going to do about power? They're like, what do you mean? We have plenty of power. Like, we're not worried about power. Like, this is. They said, quote, electricity here is a solved problem. Now, it's dirty, all right? I mean, not all of it's nice. Some of it's solar, which is filthy to create a lot of hydro. Some of it's hydro, some of it's coal. They don't give a shit whether it's coal, nuclear, or anything. They don't have any of the sunrise people campaigning against nuclear power plants or any of that stuff. But the point is, is that that's possible elsewhere in the world. They don't think about power. They think it's cheap, plentiful, and the Reason why that's important is that if you want to build a future on top of something, that's what infrastructure matters for. That's what the original grid system of the United States of America was kind of laid out after the post New Deal era is like the backbone of which all of us can build better lives on top of not to be kind of, you know, commoditized and bought entirely by some data center and then spread the costs, you know, to the rest of us.

[Ryan Grim]

And the big beautiful bill actively aggressively targeted renewable energy projects for destruction.

[Krystal Ball]

That's true.

[Ryan Grim]

Like it said, and it was loosened up a tiny bit at the very end, but it basically said, said if your project is not operational, like producing energy within like 60 days of the passage of this bill, you're done. Forget it. Which is none of them like that. You don't just, you know, people are trying to figure out ways to fake it. Like, okay, well, we'll plug in like a car battery to a solar panel and say we're producing energy. But most companies are like, all right, well, America's not a place that supports the development of new energy projects, so we're going to go somewhere.

[Krystal Ball]

It's. I mean, the big beautiful bill thing, I don't disagree with you. I think there was a very stupid.

[Ryan Grim]

Way also funded AI out the.

[Krystal Ball]

I was going to say, yeah, it's not all. I could also it's my issue more with it is that they go all in on solar and wind. I've done endless number of segments here. Why solar and wind, I think alone are not the answer. I think nuclear is the obvious answer. By the way, the Trump administration, hey, make big promises on nuclear. Still haven't seen a damn thing happen on it. Just so everybody knows. So it's like they are delivering by the net effect is basically a gift to the. The oil and gas industry, which, look, I'm not ideologically opposed to the oil and gas industry. I just don't think it's nearly as efficient as a lot of other different types of.

[Ryan Grim]

And they don't need subsidies.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, right, exactly. It's just like everyone, I think should compete on its own and we can make the most efficient type of power. It seems to me that nuclear is obviously the answer and yet we have all kinds of ideological reasons for why that doesn't happen. But that's kind of the issue is if you just take away and you don't add, then prices have seen that.

[Ryan Grim]

That'S the key thing.

[Krystal Ball]

That's my problem.

[Ryan Grim]

Bill tilted the playing field against clean energy. Wasn't that it said, okay, we're all going to compete on a level playing field. It's like, no, we're going to make it easier for fossil fuels, subsidize them. We're going to make it harder for this. Like why are you making harder for any energy when.

[Krystal Ball]

Right, yeah, we just need more power. Yeah, exactly.

[Ryan Grim]

So we're getting rolling blackouts and we're just going to have to deal with it.

[Krystal Ball]

I don't know if we're going to get rolling blackouts, but we will get rolling. What was the what, what happened before the rolling blackouts in California? It was like sky high bills, right? You know, people were paying like $400 in like 2002 money, which is like $2,000 today for their electric bills. Man.

[Ryan Grim]

I don't, I don't.

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[Krystal Ball]

Check out the new season of Reasonable Doubt now streaming on Hulu. L A s most successful attorney Jack Stewart defends a young actor accused of murder. Follow Emma Yahtzee, Coronaldi, Morris Chestnut, Joseph Sikora and guest stars Kash Doll and Lori Harvey as they fight their personal battles in the spotlight of the year's most sensational trial. In the pursuit of justice, every move counts. Reasonable Doubt Season 3, now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney for bundle subscribers. Terms apply.

[Ryan Grim]

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[Krystal Ball]

Ford, this is an iHeart podcast.