← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
9/3/25: Trump Threatens Chicago Takeover, Venezuela Ship Blown Up, Tariff Refunds & MORE!
02:01:43
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Sagar Enjeti
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- [01:07]
Today Show Announcer
From back to school to tackling your to do list, the Today show is your best start to the day.
- [01:12]
Ryan Grim
It's a new season and every morning.
- [01:14]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
We'Re here to help you take it.
- [01:16]
Ryan Grim
All on as the forecast calls for.
- [01:19]
Today Show Announcer
Football all across the country, blockbuster stars, live concerts and so much more.
- [01:24]
Ryan Grim
Wake up to where it's all happening.
- [01:25]
Sagar Enjeti
We're getting back to all of it and the best way to start is together.
- [01:30]
Today Show Announcer
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- [02:05]
Krystal Ball
Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you.
- [02:15]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [02:20]
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important.
- [02:21]
Sagar Enjeti
To you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become.
- [02:24]
Krystal Ball
A member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every.
- [02:30]
Sagar Enjeti
Morning in your inbox.
- [02:31]
Krystal Ball
We need your help to build the future of independent news media. And we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com.
- [02:38]
Ryan Grim
All right. Good morning and welcome to Breaking Points. Happy Wednesday, Emily. How you doing?
- [02:43]
Krystal Ball
Doing great. How about you?
- [02:44]
Ryan Grim
Very good. We've got a packed show today. We're going to talk to Lieutenant Colonel retired Anthony Aguilar later today. He's in Washington, D.C. he's actually gonna be disrupting a Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Don't tell anybody, but check that out. That'll be at 10:00am it's kind of our secret.
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Krystal Ball
We got him before he's gonna head to Capitol Hill.
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Ryan Grim
By the time this airs, it will have already happened.
- [03:10]
Krystal Ball
Right. But he has some really important perspective to share ahead of that about recent updates.
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Ryan Grim
And it's the enforced disappearances that Israel's accused of effectuating through the Gaza Humanitarian foundation and also his recent conversations with the icc. He also told me that the USAID and the State Department internal investigators have reached out to him. So, you know, while he is working, the, while he's speaking publicly, he's also speaking directly to whatever authorities will listen about the crimes that he witnessed.
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Krystal Ball
The scrappy remnant of usaid.
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Ryan Grim
Apparently there's, there's still some people with like Wi fi access at usaid and they're probing this.
- [03:56]
Krystal Ball
Interesting. We're also going to start today with some clips. I feel like, actually I was thinking about this earlier, Ryan. The amount of times that we have opened up a show by saying the president had a truly wild press conference yesterday has to be in the like dozens.
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Ryan Grim
And not wild anymore. It's just called a Trump press conference at this point.
- [04:15]
Krystal Ball
Right. Although it's absolutely accurate that he did have a truly, by other standards, press conference yesterday where he was confronted with video evidence that he had died and responded to that. So you're not gonna wanna miss this block. Also, as usual, he also addressed some very important questions, whether it's what's happening in Ukraine or what's happening here at home. So we're gonna bring.
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Ryan Grim
We're launching a war in the Caribbean.
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Krystal Ball
Yep.
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Ryan Grim
Against fishing boats.
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Krystal Ball
Yeah. Well, yes, we are. We will discuss all of that. And we have video of the strike that the government is putting out. So we'll get into that. Also, we will have updates on.
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Ryan Grim
Companies.
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Krystal Ball
Are going to get tariff refunds from the United States government, which is an actual question on the table right now. So markets reacting a little bit to some of Trump's comments yesterday about those tariffs and what might be coming. So we have a lot to get into with that Major Jeffrey Epstein victim press conference happening on Capitol Hill today, there was a big document dump just yesterday. We have some details on how legitimate or compelling any of that evidence is and what you can expect to see here in Washington today as Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie assemble this press conference of victims to get that discharge petition which is right now hanging in the balance as to whether they'll get enough Republicans in each six, whether they'll get enough Republicans to sign that discharge petition and compel the release of additional documents.
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Ryan Grim
Yep. And then we're going to take a look at the unrest in Southeast Asia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, all seeing significant protests. Each one of them has their own unique characteristics, but all of them kind of related to corruption and people just fed up at the way that their governments and their elites are ripping them off.
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Krystal Ball
And we'll also be joined by Pam Bailey. Right, Ryan.
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Ryan Grim
Yeah, I think that. Is that an extra or is that going to be part of the show?
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Krystal Ball
It's in the aft block here.
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Ryan Grim
So Pam Bailey and others put together a book called We Are Not Numbers, which is a collection of essays and poems, pieces of literature by Palestinians about their experience, not just in the last two years, but also, you know, leading up to it as well. And that book rolled out this, this week.
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Krystal Ball
All right. Well, looking forward to hearing from Pam Bailey. Let's dive in to our A block, which is this winding press conference that Donald Trump conducted yesterday. We where he made this announcement that Space Force Command center was being moved from Colorado to Huntsville, Alabama, and had a collection of senators, cabinet members assembled behind him. And of course, took many, many questions from the press, including some questions on whether or not he was actually alive. If you missed the fever speculation over Labor Day weekend, then you probably weren't on TikTok or X or Instagram because, Ryan, it was absolutely everywhere. There seemed to be a genuine contingent of, I guess you could say blue and on that was pretty convinced there was something odd going on with the president.
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Ryan Grim
There was.
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Krystal Ball
There's always something odd going on. But that's what I was just going to say. In fact, there have been obvious signs that Donald Trump is aging. He had the bruises on his hands. He had the swollen ankles. In July, the White House mentioned that he'd been diagnosed with the benign condition that caused the swelling of the ankles. And then for Donald Trump to not have public events sched for three days is always strange, even if it's the slowest week of the entire year in Washington, D.C. which is labor Day week. But granted that is what it was. And Trump appears to be very much alive, as he confirmed for everyone in front of the cameras yesterday. Ryan, let's put a one. Let's roll a one here.
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Ryan Grim
How did you find out over the weekend that you were dead?
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Today Show Announcer
You see that?
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Donald Trump
No. It's sort of crazy, but last week I did numerous news conferences, all successful. They went very well. Like this is going very well. And then I didn't do any for two days. And they said there must be something wrong with him. Biden wouldn't do him for months. You wouldn't see him. And nobody ever said there was ever anything wrong with him. And we know he wasn't in the greatest of shape. I did numerous shows and also did a number of truths, long truths, I think pretty poignant truths. No, I was very active over the weekend.
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Ryan Grim
There is a video that is circulating online now of the White House where a window is open to the residents.
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Today Show Announcer
Upstairs and somebody is throwing a big.
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Ryan Grim
Bag out the window. Have you seen this?
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Donald Trump
No, that's probably a generator. So actually, you can't open the windows. You know why? They're all heavily armored and bulletproof.
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Today Show Announcer
That's a big.
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Krystal Ball
A fake video.
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Donald Trump
Well, it's got to be, because I know every window up there. Number one, they're sealed, and number two, each window weighs about 600 pounds. You have to be pretty strong to open them up. No, that has to be. Where was the window? Let me see. Which is the window?
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Ryan Grim
It looks like this is on the 15th street side.
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Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
I think so right here.
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Donald Trump
Yeah, those windows are sealed. Those windows are all. They're all sealed. You can't open them. But also they create things. You know, it works both ways. If something happens, it's really bad. Maybe I'll have to just blame AI.
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Krystal Ball
Okay, so if you're joining us as a podcast listener, what you missed was Peter Doocy of Fox News with him. That exchange was happening between the president and Doocy walked up to the presidential podium at Trump's request with his phone and showed Donald Trump the video. And Trump sort of looked over, like, your grandparent at Thanksgiving, who you're showing a very funny meme to and said, it's AI. If anything goes wrong, blame AI Ryan. Let.
- [10:03]
Ryan Grim
Let's add that, as in post, as vo so people can see if they haven't seen it. The, like, the video itself. White House has already commented on it and said, like, it's not AI. Like, Trump is confused on this.
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Krystal Ball
He might be, because they are renovating the Lincoln Bedroom. This was part of the reason the conspiracy theories should have been halted by at least Friday is that he did this long interview with the Daily Caller and the reporter there, Reagan Reese, who, who posted pictures with him, said she talked to him for an hour. And in the transcript, you can hear him. He gets up at one point and shows her the renovations of the Rose Garden and then says we should get her up to see the Lincoln Bedroom at some point, which is why he's just so. I mean, he's talking there about the windows and he says, I know every window up there. Of course he knows every window up there because he seems to be extremely focused on the details of every renovation that's happening at the White House. And we've seen since some comments from sources and media reports that suggest this is actually Donald Trump, something he sees as his legacy is like the Trumpian renovations to the White House. So I thought the trash thing was legitimately weird and understand why people spiraled and went down the rabbit holes, given his bruising and everything else. But it was obviously pretty by Friday. I think it was obviously a little bit over the edge.
- [11:23]
Ryan Grim
Well, he's alive. He's alive and he's posting the most poignant truths and he's playing the very poignant truths. He thought they were poignant anyway. I'm sure they were poignant. Poignant, yes. I love that he thinks his truths are poignant. That's amazing. He also announced that he's going into Chicago, so he's going to do that. We've got. We can roll that next stop sign up on Chicago, though.
- [11:45]
Donald Trump
Well, we're going in. I didn't say when we're going in. When you lose. Look, I have an obligation. This isn't a political thing. Chicago is a hellhole right now. Baltimore is a hellhole right now. Parts of Los Angeles are terrible. If we didn't put out the fires, and I mean the other fires, the bullet fires, they didn't do a good job with. They should have had the water coming down. Like I said, you know, we had to release the water. We had to go in and release the water to L. A. It's so badly run.
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Ryan Grim
Secretary March today in California ruled that your deployment of National Guard troops to Los Angeles was illegal.
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Krystal Ball
Do you have any response?
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Donald Trump
Well, it was a radical left, Judge. But very importantly, what did you not tell me in that question or statement that you made? Pretty much of a statement, I think.
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Today Show Announcer
Well, I was asking for the response.
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Donald Trump
No, no, you didn't say what the judge said, though. The judge said. But you can leave the 300 people that you already have in place. They can continue to be in place. That's all we need. But why didn't you put that as part of your statement?
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Ryan Grim
So he said he's going into Chicago, but doesn't know when. So presumably it's gonna happen. We don't know when. What can we make of this? The latest legal setback?
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Krystal Ball
Yeah, it's a good question, because obviously what's happening in D.C. is different than any other city. So whether it's Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, completely different across the board from D.C. and in LA, the justification is that the National Guard was guarding federal property and federal agents. So ICE agents and then also federal buildings. And that is what the Trump administration. Now, they can declare emergencies of various kinds. That's something that was discussed in 2020 and actually had been used before, if I'm remembering correctly, Ryan. Right. In the 1960s, that the National Guard sure had been brought in. And that was what the Tom Cotton, the now infamous Tom Cotton at the New York Times was talking about, is that there's some historic precedent for doing that. But of course, those are active riots that were then trumped up to the legal standard of insurrection in order to justify it.
- [13:55]
Ryan Grim
And they also brought the military in a bunch to break up strikes in the 19th century.
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Krystal Ball
Oh, that's such a. That's such an interesting point. Yes. And so there are all kinds of ways that you can stretch. And that's what was happening in Los Angeles. And it means that the administration has to think about how that would work in a place like Chicago. Are they just deploying around federal buildings? Are they just going to be following ICE agents? I mean, this is a difficult. Or is there going to be some type of legal, like, to your point, justification that there's an ongoing emergency? I mean, obviously that would be part of it. But is there something that's going to say that the crime. What are they going to use? They have different devices, so it probably means that they have to look at another tool in the toolkit legally.
- [14:47]
Ryan Grim
Right. So they have to fight crime only around federal buildings. Illinois Governor J.B. pritzker responded. Thank you, but no thank you. Here's Pritzker's response. I'm aware that the President of the United States likes to go on television.
- [15:01]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
And beg me to call and ask him for troops.
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Ryan Grim
I find this extraordinarily strange, as Chicago.
- [15:08]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Does not want troops on our streets.
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Donald Trump
I also have experience asking the President.
- [15:13]
Ryan Grim
For assistance just to have the rug pulled out from underneath me when Execution meets reality. I refuse to play a reality game show with Donald Trump again. All those events required significant coordination between.
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Krystal Ball
All levels of government.
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Donald Trump
Some, like the Democratic National Convention last year, even required a limited deployment of the Illinois National Guard for broad security purposes, including especially preventing terrorism.
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Ryan Grim
So Illinois lawmakers might not want it, but Morning Joe lawmakers do. Let's roll a three.
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Donald Trump
I actually think that JB Pritzker should do something radical.
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Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
I think he should pick up the.
- [15:58]
Ryan Grim
Phone, call the president and say, you know, and I know you don't have the constitutional authority to deploy the National Guard here and to police. My, my, you can do that in D.C. you can't do that in Chicago, but let's partner up. These are the most dangerous parts of my state. We would love to figure out how to have a partnership that's constitutional, that respects the sort of balance of federalism between the federal government and the state government, and let's work together to save lives. Was he proposing a clear and hold strategy in Chicago?
- [16:35]
Krystal Ball
I mean, first of all, the stilted, melodramatic delivery of Joe Scarborough when he says, I'm going to propose something radical and takes like a 10 second pause. But Brian, I. Let me say something radical. I know it's not radical at all. It's actually like conventional, probably wisdom of people like Joe Scarborough, although in this case, I'm not convinced it's entirely wrong. The chyron on that Morning Joe segment was 54 people shot, at least seven killed in Chicago. I think there probably is a middle ground. That's not to say that Donald Trump would be eager to compromise with JB Pritzker, but I think JB Pritzker's political instincts here are way off. Unless what he's doing is just to position himself for a 2028 primary, in which case that's great because you're building up goodwill with the sort of activist base of the Democratic Party who absolutely wants resistance at all costs. On the other hand, people of Illinois see Chicago as being in like this rolling state of emergency for decades. And I think not incorrectly so, and this is, there has to be a way for people like J.B. pritzker to say, I'm taking this seriously. And you know, the people of Chicago who are desperate for protection and some order in different parts of the city that desperately need it. You know, I'm not gonna look like I'm blocking all of that. I'm not gonna look like I'mbecause that's what Trump positioning them. He's like boxing them in so that they look like they're against taking this more seriously. And that's not exactly what's happening. But on the politics of it, people in Illinois are going to want to see like Chicago be in some state of order. They might not love Donald Trump, but then you're forcing them to choose between something they don't like from Donald Trump and something they don't like from J.B. pritzker. And a lot of people are going to side with Trump in the Trump Pritzker. If Pritzker looks like he's against taking crime in Chicago more seriously and Trump looks like he's for taking crime in Chicago more seriously.
- [18:37]
Ryan Grim
Well, the reason I disagree with that is that I don't think there's anybody who's persuadable who thinks that Trump sending the National Guard into Chicago is actually going to do anything about crime, even necessarily short term. Like if you send a whole bunch of National Guardsmen into a block, I think while those Guardsmen are on that block, you might have less crime. You cannot occupy every single block and.
- [19:08]
Krystal Ball
You can't do it indefinitely either, should you?
- [19:11]
Ryan Grim
It's not a short term solution for the whole city. It's not a medium or long term solution, period. And so what it is is just a photo op and cool optics for the MAGA guys who want ASMR videos of boots stomping through Chicago.
- [19:28]
Krystal Ball
I don't disagree with that. But I think for a lot of people, I mean, there were here in D.C. when local news was going around and asking people about the federal takeover, there were people in Ward 7, Ward 8, saying, I'd love to see the National. I don't have Donald Trump, but I'd love to see the National Guard actually come to this neighborhood because we haven't seen them yet. So I don't necessarily agree that. Maybe that's where we disagree on this. Whether or not it's successful, I think there's an appetite for whether it's a National Guard or some like heightened enforcement among like average people. That's a different question of whether or not it'll actually be successful. And that's one of the big problems here in D.C. that I'm already seeing is you have National Guard out and then across the street. I mean, I just saw this this weekend. You have people who are suffering from like addiction tweakouts on the street. They're not doing it. Like that's not what they're there to do. And so yes, it's obviously a very Band Aid type solution and probably the longer it goes on, Ryan, the more, the less persuasive that is to the average person. Maybe it actually works against Donald Trump. If he deploys the National Guard in Chicago in some way because it becomes sort of D.C. with the federal city status is different than Chicago, Los Angeles, it becomes more obvious that it's not actually a long term solution.
- [20:45]
Ryan Grim
Right. If he had, if he even tried to present a solution like I'm going to send these national federal officials, whether it's Guard or ICE or whoever it is into the city and here's how they're going to actually make the situation better, then I think he might at least get a hearing from a decent number of people. But he's not even trying that. He's just like, I'm going to fix it, I'm going to send in the Guard. And I don't think anybody takes that seriously.
- [21:15]
Krystal Ball
Well, it's. So this was the decision that Trump was referring to. There was from actually Stephen Breyer's brother out in California who said that deploying to LA earlier in the summer violated posse comitatus. So Trump then has to say on the one hand the National Guard is restoring order and that he is not violating posse comitatus. And those two things are really difficult legally to say are both true at the same time. Unless you can find, like we were talking about earlier, the quote, loophole of, I mean, it's not really a loophole, it's just the Insurrection act exists. There are ways that you can do it. But Breyer's ruling, Breyer's ruling bars the Pentagon from quote, ordering, instructing, training or using the National Guard currently deployed in California or and any military troops heretofore deployed in California from quote, engaging in arrests, apprehension, searches, seizures, security patrols, traffic control, crowd control, riot control, evidence collection, interrogation or acting as informants unless they have permission from Congress, according to Politico. So obviously that's narrow. The language is narrow to California. But looking to Chicago, the administration is not going to be afraid to test that ruling and see if they can get something like this up to the Supreme Court. Probably.
- [22:34]
Sagar Enjeti
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- [23:33]
Podcast Promo Voice
Imagine that you're on an airplane and all of a sudden you hear this.
- [23:37]
Krystal Ball
Attention passengers. The pilot is having an emergency and we need someone, anyone to land this plane.
- [23:45]
Podcast Promo Voice
Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control.
- [23:54]
Ryan Grim
And they're saying like, okay, pull this.
- [23:55]
Podcast Promo Voice
Until this, pull that, turn this. It's just I can do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.
- [24:00]
Ryan Grim
I'm Noah.
- [24:00]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
This is Devin.
- [24:01]
Podcast Promo Voice
And on our new show no such thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.
- [24:10]
Pam Bailey
Those who lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that they lack expertise.
- [24:17]
Podcast Promo Voice
And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the Runway.
- [24:23]
Krystal Ball
I'm looking at this thing.
- [24:24]
Podcast Promo Voice
See, listen to no such thing thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:31]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
I had this like overwhelming sensation that I had to call her right then.
- [24:36]
Ryan Grim
And I just hit call, said, you.
- [24:37]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Know, hey, I'm Jacob Schick.
- [24:38]
Ryan Grim
I'm the CEO of One Tribe foundation. And I just wanted to go on and let her know there's a lot of people battling some of the very.
- [24:45]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Same things you're battling.
- [24:47]
Ryan Grim
And there is help out there.
- [24:48]
Krystal Ball
The good stuff podcast season two takes a deep look into One Tribe Foundation.
- [24:52]
Today Show Announcer
Foundation, a non profit fighting suicide in the veteran community.
- [24:55]
Krystal Ball
September is national suicide prevention month, so.
- [24:58]
Today Show Announcer
Join hosts Jacob and Ashley Schick as.
- [25:00]
Krystal Ball
They bring you to the front lines of One Tribe's mission. I was married to a combat army veteran and he actually took his own life to suicide. One tribe saved my life twice.
- [25:09]
Ryan Grim
There's a lot of love that flows through this place and it's sincere now.
- [25:13]
Krystal Ball
It's a personal mission. Don't have to go to any more funerals.
- [25:15]
Ryan Grim
You know, I got blown up on a react mission. I ended up having amputation below the knee of my right leg and a traumatic brain injury because I landed on my head.
- [25:23]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Welcome to season Two of the good stuff.
- [25:26]
Krystal Ball
Listen to the good stuff podcast on.
- [25:28]
Today Show Announcer
The iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever.
- [25:30]
Krystal Ball
You get your podcasts.
- [25:33]
Ryan Grim
So let's move here to Venezuela because I think this is actually a good segue because rather than trying to actually prevent crime, the Trump administration appears to be just committing crimes. We sent down this naval armada since nuclear powered submarines to Venezuela. Sabre rattled at Nicolas Maduro. Marco Rubio put a $50 million price on his head.
- [25:59]
Krystal Ball
Have you seen your 50 million yet?
- [26:01]
Ryan Grim
I haven't seen my 50 million. Saying that he's the head of a narco trafficking operation, then said that he runs Trende Aragua, Venezuelan and U.
- [26:12]
Krystal Ball
S Based gang which they designate as a foreign terrorist organization. So this is how they're bringing Maduro. This is how they're going to justify. We don't know yet. It's still early. But they designated Trend Uragua a foreign terrorist organization and then they sanctioned something called the cartel of the suns and say that Maduro is. They say the cartel of the suns is providing material support to Trend and that Maduro controls cartel of the Suns, which has been sanctioned. So this is how they're building the justification.
- [26:36]
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And in order to get to that, they needed the intelligence community to say that this was not a total figment of our imagination. Intelligence community put out a report saying, sorry, this is a figment of your imagination. He does not run Trend Nicaragua. This is false. Those people were then fired by Tulsi Gabbard for producing a report that did not align with the outcome that the Trump administration wanted. She then put people in place who would write the report that she wanted written to say that trend Iraq was actually this foreign terrorist organization under the control of Maduro, which just use your common sense. If you are a government, do you need gangs? Like if Robby Suave were here, he would tell you what is a government? Is it a gang that has evolved into having a monopoly over violence? If you are the government, you are a basically regulated, empowered gang already. You don't then go and create new gangs. Like that's, that's not in general how these things work. You create paramilitary organizations.
- [27:53]
Krystal Ball
I think it's fair to contrainder military organization. Yeah.
- [27:58]
Ryan Grim
So anyway, according to the IC American intelligence community, this was bogus Fired. Those people got a new report, said that actually yes, Maduro does run trend Nicaragua. Now the other problem for the administration's rationale here is Trend Aragua is not primarily a. Or even in the main a narco trafficking operation like that's not their thing or some of their people involved in it. Some, some ways, sure. But that's crucial to understanding what they did yesterday. So let's roll. What's the first one that we have here? Oh, this.
- [28:35]
Krystal Ball
So this is the, the administration released this.
- [28:38]
Ryan Grim
A little dinghy rolling through the Caribbean. The laws of the sea here just getting lit up.
- [28:44]
Krystal Ball
If you're listening to this.
- [28:45]
Ryan Grim
Yeah. Would say that if you want to. Here's people getting burned alive. The laws of the sea here would say that if you believe that this ship in international waters is doing something that you don't like as the Coast Guard, U.S. navy, you can try to intercept them, you can try to stop them. You can't blow them out of the water without warning. You can't blow them out of the water if they're not a threat to you. You're obligated to try to stop them and board them. And if you think that they're trafficking in drugs, then board the ship and seize the drugs and interrogate the people. Because again, use some common sense here. If they're serious about rolling up a drug trafficking operation, what's a better way to do it? Do you seize the drugs, interrogate the people, ask them where'd they get the drugs and roll it up that way? Or do you use a $50 million missile to bomb every fishing boat that you think might have some drugs on it?
- [29:49]
Krystal Ball
That's good business for Lockheed.
- [29:50]
Ryan Grim
That's good business for Lockheed. I don't know if we have enough missiles to hit every single fishing boat that may or may not have drugs on it.
- [30:02]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, well I mean that's a really important point obviously and Ryan, you've covered this for years, but particularly in the Middle east and this is now in our hemisphere and obviously there were Cold War conflicts in some of these very places where there were extrajudicial killings and all of that from the sort of fervent anti communists in America and in some of these countries themselves, but were getting support and aid from America. But this high tech extrajudicial killing where we're notI don't think it's confirmed whether it was a drone or a helicopter, that type of strike. And we can put this next element up on the screen. This is from Representative Kassar who introduced an amendment to the NDAA Pentagon bill requiring Trump to follow the Constitution and War Powers act, as this person exponents puts it. The amendment simply says that Congress must vote before Trump sends our troops into danger in Venezuela as required by law. So getting to the point as to whether it's a drone or a helicopter is actually important because that indicates if it's a helicopter, you have potentially people in harm's way. These paramilitary cartel organizations, it didn't look like they were.
- [31:11]
Ryan Grim
That was a very dangerous dinghy. No.
- [31:13]
Krystal Ball
But you can see how that becomes. That spirals really quickly into a protracted conflict in our hemisphere. And it doesn't really behoove anyone, least of all the people of these countries, to have such robust paramilitary organizations running so much of the land in their countries, like the war that's happening right now in Sinaloa is like, that's land that is out of control of the Mexican government. And it's not that far from the American border. This doesn't absolve the US of any of its role in helping fuel the rise of some of these groups. One of the least discussed things ever is basically that because of the Biden administration's immigration policy, every single person who crossed the border under Biden was Ka Ching, like money in the cartel's pockets. And so they've exploded in terms of their tech capabilities. Not just because of that, also because of fentanyl and other things, but they've exploded in their capabilities. And they now do have some, you know, they have more drone capacity, all of that stuff. And it's not just hawkish warmongering to say that they're just like, actually pretty well funded advanced paramilitary organizations that now run swaths of their respective countries. And so to then be doing questionable or operations with questionable legitimacy. I mean, we'll take a look at the evidence, but given our track record in the Middle East, I'm not optimistic that this will come out looking like it was fully constitutional, legal use of force. Then you are genuinely risking what seems like the Trump administration wants, which is some type of all out military conflict with these paramilitary groups, which will mean that Americans die.
- [32:55]
Ryan Grim
Right. And 11 people were killed yesterday on this fishing boat or whatever it was. And here's Trump with a six announcing this attack.
- [33:04]
Donald Trump
When you come out and when you leave the room, you'll see that we just, over the last few minutes literally shot out a, a boat, a drug carrying boat. A lot of drugs in that boat. And you'll be seeing that. And there's more where that came from. We have a lot of drugs pouring into our country, coming in for a long time, and we just. These came out of Venezuela.
- [33:28]
Ryan Grim
There's more where that came from. Yes, there is more drugs where that came from. You think you're gonna blow up Every boat that might have drugs on it. I don't even wanna. Maybe it did. I don't even wanna acknowledge that without some type of evidence. There's plenty of fishing going on in the Caribbean.
- [33:44]
Krystal Ball
Well, yeah, I mean, also, people who have followed this have already said it's a very small craft. And there's some debate of people in that space, like former agents, guys like yo and Grillo, who've covered this really closely, as to whether or not that boat, from what we know now, looks like something that would be engaged in mass trafficking. Some people say you see the waterproof bags in the middle of it. I think that's hard to see, but we'll obviously learn more, at least from our government's perspective. But very interestingly, in the aftermath of the strike, Maduro, this is. I don't know if you saw this, Ryan, because you'll have interesting thoughts on this. Maduro tried to drive a wedge between Rubio and Trump by saying, Marco Rubio, who obviously has supported Juan Guaido and other opponents of Maduro's, been a vicious enemy of Maduro for a long time, saying, marco Rubio is trying to draw you into a war with the people of Venezuela. But I'm confident, you know, that there's a way that we can work with Donald Trump, etc. That's what Maduro said afterwards was a pretty. Pretty interesting attack.
- [34:45]
Ryan Grim
No, I think it's smart by Maduro because I think it's true. I think Rubio. I think Rubio is going. Is taking the opportunity that he sees. Yes, he's boxed out of a lot of the rest of the world, but the thing that he really cares about is fighting the left in the Caribbean and Latin America, and he's just being allowed to do it.
- [35:09]
Krystal Ball
Well, stop on that point, because notice, I think Trump is absolutely itching for a conflict with cartels that he can.
- [35:15]
Ryan Grim
But Mexican cartels, not communists. And Rubio's like, how about we go after Venezuela?
- [35:20]
Krystal Ball
Exactly. Because I think Trump is absolutely itching for a war with cartels, which is not like. I think it's really emotional for people who have lost family members to fentanyl, which is just staggering number of Americans who do want to see some justice and want to see action. And I absolutely understand that. I think we've learned, you know, after 9, 11, for example, that it's very easy after deep tragedy to be sort of swayed in one direction or another by politicians who say they have our best interests and are pursuing justice at hand. So there's that. But the Mexican cartels. Trump, I think, is particularly eager because he feels like they're fairly easy to crush. And I think he's eager to have videos of those cartels getting lit up. But your point I think is important, which is that Marco Rubio, who's actually on a sort of swing of Latin America, this happened literally right before he was going on his trip. Marco Rubio, isn't it interesting, is going after the first strike is on Venezuela. How about that the communists.
- [36:29]
Ryan Grim
Maybe he'll find some Cuban drug traffickers next.
- [36:33]
Krystal Ball
That probably is coming. That probably is coming.
- [36:37]
Sagar Enjeti
Time for a sofa upgrade. Visit washablesofas.com and discover Annabe where designer style meets budget friendly prices. With sofas starting at $699, Annabe brings you the ultimate in furniture innovation with a modular design that allows you to rearrange your space effortlessly. Perfect for both small and large spaces, Anibe is the only machine washable sofa inside and out. Say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that make cleaning easy. Liquid simply slides right off. Designed for custom comfort, our high resilience foam lets you choose between a sink in feel or a supportive memory foam blend. Plus our pet friendly stain resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years. Don't compromise quality for price. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your living space today with no risk returns and a 30 day money back guarantee. Get up to 60% off plus free shipping and free returns. Shop now@washablesofas.com Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.
- [37:37]
Podcast Promo Voice
Imagine that you're on an airplane and all of a sudden you hear this.
- [37:41]
Krystal Ball
Attention passengers. The pilot is having an emergency and we need someone, anyone to land this plane.
- [37:49]
Podcast Promo Voice
Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control.
- [37:57]
Ryan Grim
And they're saying like, okay, pull this.
- [38:00]
Podcast Promo Voice
Pull that, turn this. It's just I can do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.
- [38:03]
Ryan Grim
I'm Noah.
- [38:04]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
This is Devin.
- [38:05]
Podcast Promo Voice
And on our new show, no Such Thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.
- [38:14]
Pam Bailey
Those who lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that they lack expertise.
- [38:20]
Podcast Promo Voice
And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the Runway.
- [38:26]
Krystal Ball
I'm looking at this thing. See?
- [38:28]
Podcast Promo Voice
Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [38:36]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
What would you do if One bad decision forced you to choose between a maximum security prison or the most brutal boot camp designed to be hell on earth. Unfortunately for Mark Lombardo, this was the choice he faced.
- [38:49]
Ryan Grim
He said, you are a number, a New York state number, and we own you.
- [38:54]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Shock incarceration, also known as boot camps, are short term, highly regimented correctional programs that mimic military basic training. These programs aim to provide a shock of prison life, emphasizing strict discipline, physical training, hard labor, and rehabilitation programs. Mark had one chance to complete this program and had no idea of the hell awaiting him the next six months.
- [39:20]
Ryan Grim
The first night was overwhelming and you don't know who's next to you, and we didn't know what to expect in the morning. Nobody tells you anything.
- [39:28]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Listen to shock incarceration on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [39:36]
Krystal Ball
We started this by saying it was a wild press conference that spanned all kinds of different topics, and it was including tariffs. So, Ryan, let's talk about how the President responded to setbacks, or maybe he doesn't see them as setbacks, but setbacks in his tariff war. We can go ahead and roll B1 again from this press conference yesterday.
- [39:58]
Donald Trump
And now it's going to the Supreme Court. Now we're going to be asking for early admittance. We're going tomorrow. And we're going to ask for expedited and expedited ruling. Because, you know, when you look at the stock markets down today, the stock market's down because of that. Because the stock market needs the tariffs. They want the tariffs. Without the tariffs, we wouldn't have a chance because we wouldn't be able to protect those investments of the companies coming in. So if you took away tariffs, we could end up being a third world country. That's how. That's how big the ruling. So we're asking for an expedited ruling.
- [40:35]
Today Show Announcer
Sir, China's having a massive military parade that President Putin and Kim Jong Un will be attending. Do you interpret that as a challenge to the ascent?
- [40:42]
Ryan Grim
Are you concerned at all about those.
- [40:44]
Today Show Announcer
Countries trying to be some sort of counterweight?
- [40:46]
Donald Trump
Not at all. China needs and have a very good relationship with President Xi, as you know. But China needs us much more than we need them. No, I don't see that at all.
- [40:57]
Ryan Grim
No.
- [40:59]
Donald Trump
And I had actually a very good meeting with President Putin a couple of weeks ago. We'll see if anything comes out of it. If it doesn't, we'll take a different stance.
- [41:07]
Krystal Ball
Okay. So two things going on there, not unrelated, of course, the tariff war and the meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Obviously Narendra Modi was in the mix as well over the last couple of days. What was your reaction, reaction to Trump's comments there?
- [41:22]
Ryan Grim
So he referenced the stock market plunge. So it wasn't huge, but like the market was down across the board. This is coming because this appeals court has affirmed the lower court's ruling that Trump's use of the tariffs is illegal, that the President retains ability to put tariffs in place in particular instances. But he does not have an across the board ability to just willy nilly slap tariffs on everybody for any reason. He just doesn't have that power. And he's clearly doing it that way. Like India's buying oil from Russia. Well, here's another 25% tax on a tariff on India. Or the entire formula that he rolled out that hit the entire world. There was nothing, you know, there was very little attempt to root it in the statutory authority that delegates to the President the ability to implement these tariffs. The consequence of that is, think about that. One reason that the market hasn't gone haywire over the tariffs is because there was significant revenue coming in and we haven't had a complete calamity economically. And so Wall street starts thinking, oh, wait, this is actually a decent revenue potential for the United States. And so maybe we'll keep, maybe that keeps bond prices a little bit flat and interest rates don't go crazy. Because we're not as worried about a debt spiral if the tariffs are illegal. And let's say you run a small business that manufactures, you know, fishing gear, you know, in Ohio, and you paid $200,000 in tariffs in June for the material that you need to manufacture the goods that you're producing here in the United States and then selling here. You paid 200 grand. You didn't have that 200 grand. You went to the bank, you're like, look, I'm going under if I don't pay for these imports. So you got this $200,000. You paid it. You're now told that these tariffs are illegal. You want that $200,000 back. And you're not alone. Everyone who paid those tariffs is going to then demand those back. And so Wall street is factoring that in. And that's why Trump was saying the market went down. And I think he's actually right about that. The B3 is the appeals court ruling. We put up that real quickly so people can see it and then quickly move to before, which is that Trump is not crazy here. To think this, this Is CNBC headline Treasury yields jump on prospect of us having to refund tariff money. 30 year yield tops 4.97%. We saw 50 point swing, 50 point, 50 basis point, interest rate swings half point. Like massive jumps in interest rates as a result of this uncertainty. And so that means two things. One, the tariffs get approved and we continue to have prices going up because everybody's paying more for the things that are coming into the country, which is most of the things, or the tariffs get shot down and then the US has to spend hundreds of billions of dollars refunding people their tariffs that they collected illegally, neither of which the market or the economy is going to like. So Trump has set himself up for a complete lose, lose situation here, which goes back to what I was saying at the very beginning. If you remember, you and I both like the idea of protecting domestic industries where it's necessary, but you want to have the public on your side and you want to have a strategy for why you're protecting those industries and how you're going to bolster them in the meantime. Let's say it's aluminum. Here's our aluminum strategy. We're going to make sure the Pentagon and the federal government and the states are buying from American aluminum makers and we're going to make sure that they have access to the global sources that they need over the course of the time that they're building up the industry. We'll do some tax breaks. You do whatever you want and explain it and put it into law, and then that can work. He's just like, we're doing this because you suck and you've been ripping us off. And the court's like, well, you can't do that. And the voters and the businesses don't think you're going to stick with it. So it doesn't actually develop any domestic industry. And then you wind up in this lose, lose situation.
- [46:10]
Krystal Ball
So Trump also has said a couple of other things worth noting. One is he told Scott Dennings that the uncertainty was hurting the stock market, which is what his critics have been saying since we were liberated on April.
- [46:25]
Ryan Grim
2Nd, you think, buddy.
- [46:27]
Krystal Ball
But he then also said that the stock markets are upset because they need the tariffs. That was another.
- [46:35]
Ryan Grim
They love the tariffs.
- [46:36]
Krystal Ball
Well, so they're bringing these tariffs have brought in about $30 billion a month. And so if that, that goes straight to the Treasury. So if, then that leaves the Treasury. This is a huge hole in Trump's talking point about tariffs, which isn't just that we're going to make fairer deals, we're going to protect American industry, but also that it's going to help the deficit. And so if that goes away. Also, there are companies, experts who weighed in on this. We put the CNBC article up on the screen already. That article talks to some people who are like, it's possible actually that it's, it's not that difficult to do the refunds. That the process, like, logistically is not impossible. You'd be able to do it. It all has been paid. Right. But some companies do their imports through third parties like DHL or other groups, which is a nightmare for those.
- [47:28]
Pam Bailey
Right.
- [47:28]
Ryan Grim
And then who's entitled to that? Right?
- [47:31]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. So we can. This is a B4. This is the CNBC article that you can read if you want to. But basically the breakdown is that the logistics of, you know, they're doable, but then it gets really, really messy for certain companies. And obviously the markets are gonna react to that.
- [47:49]
Ryan Grim
Yeah, good point. Think about this. Let's take your fishing rod company again, like, let's say that fishing rod company, their costs for the imports went up by $200,000. But they actually paid this importer.
- [48:05]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [48:05]
Ryan Grim
Because it's the importer. Exactly. Paid. So. So the importer now got paid by the company itself because they told the fishing company, hey, look, sorry, man, you want to make these fishing rods, it's going to cost you an extra 200 grand because Trump did this to me. And then they take the money from the fishing company, they pass it on to the Treasury. Now, if they get ruled illegal, the importer is going to go to the treasury and say, give me my $200,000 back. Back. Yes, of course. Now the fishing rod company is going to be like, well, you owe me that 200k, of course, because I had to raise my prices and I had to go into debt. So now give it back. Like, no, legally it's mine. I'm not giving it back to you. And then me, who spent an extra 30 bucks on the fishing rod, it's been like, I want the $30 back.
- [49:01]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, exactly.
- [49:02]
Ryan Grim
And they're gonna be like, no, too bad.
- [49:03]
Krystal Ball
Well, maybe you'll get your tariff rebate.
- [49:06]
Ryan Grim
Don't count.
- [49:07]
Krystal Ball
What was it called? So let's put B5 on the screen because some of this actually is probably already priced into things. So this is a screenshot from NBC. Package carriers suspending shipments to the US Lots and lots of carriers from different countries around the world that have already kind of adjusted to this. And that's why, adjusted in a brutal.
- [49:28]
Ryan Grim
Way like, so this is the de minimis rule, which says, which is awesome. It used to be under what, a pound or two?
- [49:35]
Krystal Ball
Maybe it started that way. It evolved in a really egregious way over time with inflation. So it started as like a buck or two to your point. And then what was it, 2015 or 2016, they moved it to like $800, something like that. So basically you could package a crazy amount of stuff in these little boxes from China and not have to pay, right?
- [49:55]
Ryan Grim
Not, not have to pay any tariffs. And so then, so they got rid of that. And so if you've ever wondered why.
- [50:00]
Krystal Ball
Stuff got really cheap in the last 10 years, that's a very good example. Like if why the Amazon prices started tumbling about roughly 10 years ago and you started being able to get crazy stuff really quickly on prime.
- [50:11]
Ryan Grim
Right. And different LLCs could then be the ones that are buying all these different things and so. And so. But again, they didn't really figure out a rational replacement to what is going on. So all of these mail carriers just like, well, we don't really understand what the new rules are for the US So we're not sending any packages, period. So if you need something from this list of 30 plus countries here, like, it's not coming, or you have to find some other like private shipping method that's going to be super expensive to get it in.
- [50:47]
Krystal Ball
Right? Yeah, I mean, this is. We'll see. I mean, Trump also said, this is another thing I wanted to get your take on because I think it was Obama and Justin Trudeau may have done something similar at some point. Your memory is better than me on this. But Trump was talking about how these IPA tariffs, so the emergency tariffs are actually, it's great that they go through the president and not Congress because it gives the president the ability to make deals. And, and sort of the implication of what he was saying, I'm paraphrasing him, of course, is that it gives the president the ability to make deals for national security and for prosperity and do sort of all of that rolled up into one negotiator, not trying to go through this byzantine legislative system just to negotiate with other world leaders. And it sounds, it reminds me a little bit of, do you remember when Obama was. He got hammered really hard for almost sounding like he yearned to have the power of Xi Jinping at one point. I'm sure you remember this. It sounds exactly like that, that, you know, the president should be able to kind of wave the wand and do these emergency deals, even though that Also sort of undercuts the legal emergency justification for doing these deals by saying, well, it's just better this way anyway. But yeah, that's, I think a worthwhile distinction is we may, we don't know, I mean, like, but we may look back on this five to ten years from now and say the emergency tariff authority of the executive pursuing these tariffs with that vehicle was actually the downfall of the Trump tariff policy ultimately. Because while there were some, in some ways he does have more leverage just as a sole negotiator because he's able to say, ah, I don't know, I don't like this, I'm not getting along with you right now, whatever. But then on the other hand, that creates such enormous uncertainty that everyone just bets on brics or just stops doing as much business with the United States. And again, like I'm saying, that's a possibility that we look back 10 years from now. And that's the problem because that's actually not the way that the system is designed to avoid that problem. Yeah, that's exactly how it's designed.
- [53:01]
Ryan Grim
No, I saw somebody jokingly suggesting that Trump actually is on track to win his Nobel Peace Prize because the achievement of bringing together the historic rivals of China, Russia and India, which represent billions of people around the world, into coalition together, like, that's a peace deal that he deserves great credit for. People didn't think it was possible.
- [53:21]
Krystal Ball
Hey.
- [53:22]
Ryan Grim
And yet he's pulling it off. Amazing.
- [53:26]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. I mean, the theme of this show so far, we started with Chicago, then we talked about Venezuela, and now we're talking about tariffs. The theme of the show so far is the theme of the administration which is testing the legal limits both as norms and as legal precedents. Some of these constraints, particularly on executive branch power, which is the same in the case of Chicago, it is the same in the case of Venezuela, and it's right now the same in the case of tariffs. And let me just say, on tariffs and well, tariffs in particular, if Barack Obama had been doing this, the anti Obama right would have been up in arms about Obama wanting to be a king, which was the case with daca, and I think correctly the case with daca. But now that Trump is in this position, it's possible he leaves office. And the executive branch is not in any way less powerful to the point that some conservatives. This was a battle internally in the conservative movement, whether the executives have been more or less powerful or powerful in different ways, but that the executive's power is massively expanded and then wielded by a Democratic president in ways where their emergency power is punishing countries that don't go along with like the LGBT agenda or something like that. And conservatives then find themselves in that position.
- [54:52]
Ryan Grim
Somehow I suspect the Supreme Court will find a way to distinguish between Democratic and Republican presidents, though.
- [54:59]
Krystal Ball
We'll see. Tbd because actually that very internal debate in the conservative movement. These justices are federal society justices that are not in every case MAGA justices. And so they have been involved in this debate about executive power over the course of the last several decades. And it is not a given whether they side with the kind of originalist branch that they came up in or MAGA world. And that's actually very magaworld, which is sort of cribbing from Nixon in this case, that if they think they're just going to get rubber stamped at the Supreme Court, my guess would be that that's not the case. We'll see though.
- [55:36]
Ryan Grim
We'll see.
- [55:37]
Krystal Ball
Let's move on to Anthony Aguilar who is joining us in studio this morning on his way to disrupt a hearing over on Capitol Hill. We'll bring him in just now.
- [55:46]
Sagar Enjeti
Time for a sofa upgrade. Visit washablesofas.com and discover Annabe where designer style meets budget friendly prices with sofas starting at six $699. Annabe brings you the ultimate in furniture innovation with a modular design that allows you to rearrange your space effortlessly. Perfect for both small and large spaces, Anibe is the only machine washable sofa inside and out. Say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that make cleaning easy. Liquid simply slides right off. Designed for custom comfort, our high resilience foam lets you choose between a sink and and feel or a supportive memory foam blend. Plus our pet friendly stain resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years. Don't compromise quality for price. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your living space today with no risk returns and a 30 day money back guarantee. Get up to 60% off plus free shipping and free returns. Shop now at washablesofas.com Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.
- [56:47]
Podcast Promo Voice
Imagine that you're on an airplane and all of a sudden you hear this.
- [56:51]
Krystal Ball
Attention passengers. The pilot is having an emergency and we need someone, anyone to land this plane.
- [56:59]
Podcast Promo Voice
Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control and they're saying like okay, pull this until this, pull that, turn this. It's just I do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.
- [57:13]
Ryan Grim
I'm Noah. This is Devin.
- [57:14]
Podcast Promo Voice
And on our new show, no Such Thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.
- [57:23]
Pam Bailey
Those who lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that they lack expertise.
- [57:30]
Podcast Promo Voice
And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the Runway. I'm looking at this thing. See, listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
- [57:44]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
I had this like overwhelming sensation that I had to call her right then.
- [57:49]
Ryan Grim
And I just hit call, said, you.
- [57:50]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Know, hey, I'm Jacob Schick.
- [57:51]
Ryan Grim
I'm the CEO of One Tribe foundation. And I just wanted to call and let her know there's a lot of people battling some of the very same.
- [57:59]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Things you're battling and there is help out there.
- [58:01]
Krystal Ball
The Good Stuff podcast season two takes a deep look into One Tribe Foundation.
- [58:05]
Today Show Announcer
A non profit fighting suicide in the veteran community.
- [58:08]
Krystal Ball
September's National Suicide Prevention Month.
- [58:11]
Today Show Announcer
So join hosts Jacob and Ashley Schick as they bring you to the front.
- [58:14]
Krystal Ball
Lines of One Tribe's mission. I was married to a combat army veteran and he actually took his own life to suicide. One Tribe saved my life twice.
- [58:22]
Ryan Grim
There's a lot of love that flows through this place and it's sincere now.
- [58:26]
Krystal Ball
It's a personal mission. Don't have to go to any more funerals.
- [58:28]
Ryan Grim
You know, I got blown up on a react mission. I ended up having amputation below the knee of my right leg and a traumatic brain injury because I landed on on my head.
- [58:37]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Welcome to season two of the Good Stuff.
- [58:39]
Krystal Ball
Listen to the Good Stuff podcast on.
- [58:41]
Today Show Announcer
The iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever.
- [58:43]
Krystal Ball
You get your podcasts. We are joined once again by retired Lieutenant Colonel Anthony Aguilar. Ryan. We have a lot to get into, so first of all, thank you so much for being here and coming back on the show. We appreciate it.
- [58:56]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Thank you. I appreciate it. Being come back and having the opportunity.
- [59:00]
Ryan Grim
Yeah, yeah. So welcome back to Washington D.C. we're recording this early in the morning on Wednesday. You're headed from here down to the United States Senate. And by the time this show airs, the hearing that you're going to will have already begun. What's your plan there? Can you tell us anything about what brought you to Washington?
- [59:22]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
So today Senate is back in session. They returned for the 119th Second Congress on Monday. Administrative work yesterday. Today the Senate and the House are back into Sessions today at 10 o' clock will be the Foreign Affairs Committee discussing nominations to be presented moving forward. So kind of somewhat business work, but also kind of the start of business for the Foreign Affairs Committee and the Foreign Affairs Committee in my particular interest is crucial in how the United States continues to back fund support what's going on in Gaza. So my goal is to ensure that our lawmakers, our representatives, the Congress that works for us, the people, is unquestionably aware of what the truth is in Gaza and that there can't be any confusion as to, well, we didn't know or we thought this or we thought that and hopefully by being there through, you know, I will disrupt the hearing and that there is an acknowledgment or at least going back because the rest of this week and next week is all matters in the House. So they're not actually having committee hearing meetings. So they'll take back and do work. So I'm hoping that by addressing this now in a more elevated way that it'll be discussed and lawmakers will actually put some serious effort into what we're going to do.
- [61:08]
Krystal Ball
Is it a strange position to find yourself in right now being so upset about what you see, that you're willing to disrupt congressional hearings? Is this a position you ever thought you'd find yourself in?
- [61:19]
Ryan Grim
And also I assumed by the way that everybody watching this is familiar with your work. We'll just let people know who are just tuning in. You were a contractor at the so called Gaza Humanitarian foundation and so called aid distribution sites and have been speaking out about the killings and the starvation policy that you've seen unfolding there. So if you're new, that's what we're talking about here.
- [61:43]
Krystal Ball
Go click on the interview with Saga and Crystal, catch yourself up and then come right back here.
- [61:47]
Ryan Grim
Pause this, Google, go watch that.
- [61:49]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Yeah, so it's, I wouldn't say it's a strange situation. It's a situation that I did not necessarily think I'd find myself in in terms of standing up for what's right, standing up for the values and the ideals of humanity, but a weird position I find myself in that what's happening in Gaza is happening. It's mind blowing to me that the world has stood by for so long and has done nothing but write stern letters or made statements on media, but the great nations of the world have the ability to do something and we, and we haven't. And when I first went to Gaza, I was aware of the ongoing conflict. I was aware of both sides of the, of the position in terms of, well, this is what, this is what Hamas has done, this is what Israel's doing. There's a lot of narrative, there's a lot of rhetoric. The, it's very difficult for, as it was for myself and for the average American to cut through what's truth and what's not.
- [62:56]
Krystal Ball
And you were sort of generally favorable to Israel when you went over, right?
- [62:59]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
In all honesty, yes. As a military officer in the United States army, we are trained and somewhat brought up in our officer education that Israel is an army that we should emulate. They're an army that we should, that is as professional as we are and they are these partners that we should strive to work with. And so yes, when I went to Israel I kind of had that, that initial perception of, you know, that okay, what Israel's fighting a war. War is, war is complex and complicated. There's a problem with starvation. They didn't let the UN because UN go in anymore because they're giving food to Hamas. What's true, what's not right. And so me going there, I really was focused on, I can't control the political aspects of food going in or not, but what I can be a part of is providing aid to a desperate and in need population, regardless of the politics. The people of the Palestinians are dying. So that was my premise for going in. I was lied to. We were lied to all the contractors that went there. It was not a mechanism to provide aid to the population. So yes, I kind of, I first went in kind of. If you were to put me in a camp on day one, the 24th of May, going into Gaza, I probably would have fallen to that fall into the side of the pro Israel side. And that's just me being completely transparent and honest. That that's just, that's the military culture that I spent my career in.
- [64:43]
Ryan Grim
And you and I were talking just before you came on here about meetings that you've been having outside of this Senate one, but more above board meetings. You said you had some interviews with the icc. Can you tell us a little bit about what they're curious about and what are they looking into that relates to your work there?
- [65:04]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
So when you particularly look at the ICC and there are numerous entities, offices and organizations that are now taking a deeper look into this, this cloak and dagger organization of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. The, the ICC particularly is looking at the aspects of the violations of international humanitarian law. The core of the international humanitarian law that we, that, that Israel is a signature to are the protocols of the Geneva Convention. That's the. So if you have this large body of law that is the international humanitarian law, you know, the meat of it in terms of how we fight wars, is the protocols of the Geneva Convention and the icc, like many who are informed and aware of these conventions and these laws and these protocols, is that there are clear violations, clear violations of this in terms of forced displacement, starvation, not providing water. And these things are all articles of the protocols that are identified by specifically like, you have to give civilians water, you have to feed civilians, you have to safeguard civilians, you can't displace civilians, you can't do A, B and C. So it's very rational in its approach. Now, where the investigations come to which, which will take the voice of the world is that how do you then establish intent? So if I'm in an unfortunate situation where someone's killed, just say in my everyday life, I don't immediately get charged with first degree murder and go to jail. There's a trial, there's an investigation. What was the intent? What was the situation? But I think at this point it's very, very, very clear that Israel's involvement in Gaza and how this war is being fought, it's no longer a war. This is not a war. This is an annihilation. This is a genocide. And that the body of evidence that now looks to the reality that we see every day, we are seeing a genocide occur every day in front of our eyes on the world stage, is that it was planned from the beginning. This has always been the plan. It's premeditated, it's designed, and unfortunately, the United States is a part of it.
- [67:33]
Krystal Ball
I want to ask, we can put this element up on the screen. If you saw anything related to these new allegations about forced disappearances. Actually, the word they're using is, quote, enforced disappearances of Palestinians at aid distribution sites in Gaza. As the Times of Israel reports, the allegations are that the military lawfully detains individuals who approach aid compounds after hours or in ways that endanger its forces. Now unlawfully is probably the best way to frame the allegation. Now Israel is saying the claim of the forced disappearance of Gaza residents in aid compounds is baseless and entirely unfounded, according to a statement. But these are particularly about those Gaza Humanitarian foundation aid sites. So did you see anything that would lead you to believe that these allegations of enforced disappearances of Palestinians are actually happening?
- [68:27]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Without question. Not only did I witness it, but you can, they're on the ground in terms of the, the plan and how things are enacted 2, 2 data points, I would say that give me a clear understanding of that. One, the, the response from Israel and the idf, very similar and parallel to the GHF response to any and every allegation is always, that's baseless, that's categorically false. Last week when we saw, you know, a hospital struck, and then there's irrefutable evidence from what occurred, but up until the Israelis were faced with irrefutable evidence and they apologized as a mishap, what did they say? Oh, yeah, that's categorically false. That didn't happen.
- [69:17]
Ryan Grim
We don't do that.
- [69:18]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
It you're lying. We don't do that. And the world saw it. So when the IDF says they didn't do it or they didn't do something, that's like asking a criminal to adjourn their own trial. Like, oh, nothing to see here. It's like, you did it. So let's take that with a grain of salt that when Israel or the GHF say this is categorically false or this is not true. So what is true is that the Gaza Humanitarian foundation, through Safe Reach Solutions and UG Solutions. Safe Reach Solutions and UG Solutions in Israel and Gaza from day one, from the very beginning, they implemented biometric facial recognition data collection from day one and began building out these extensive pois, Persons of interest databases of anyone that looked like Hamas.
- [70:19]
Krystal Ball
And were you, as a contractor at ghf, expected to sort of have a recollection of who might be a POI or be aware of who might be a poi?
- [70:29]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
We were, yes. So in the first few days of distribution, we were told very clearly by the Safe Reach Solutions intelligence analysts, why does a humanitarian assistance operation have an intelligence analyst? We were told, kind of give us in this briefing of look for these things, look for these things. Be aware of this.
- [70:49]
Ryan Grim
What do you look for? Like, what do they say makes a person Hamas at an aid?
- [70:53]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
You know, I feel like I'm reliving lessons that we learned long ago when I was in Iraq, Afghanistan, the early days. Let's look for the mams, military aged males, which becomes the catch.
- [71:11]
Krystal Ball
All right.
- [71:11]
Ryan Grim
If you look at the videos and if you also just use your common sense, these sites are, you tell me, 5-15km away from where people are staying.
- [71:21]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Yes.
- [71:22]
Ryan Grim
The person in the family who's going to be able to make that journey and then make it back is gonna be the ma', am, the military aged.
- [71:30]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Male person, typically someone in the family that's capable.
- [71:34]
Ryan Grim
And so if you look at the videos most, and I'm curious from your perspective, you had actually eyes on the ground, the videos. Most of the people are military age males, which makes sense. Cause those are the ones that can hike all the way through the desert in the middle of the night, wait for it.
- [71:46]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
It's very difficult to get there.
- [71:48]
Ryan Grim
Yeah. So almost everybody then fits the category that they're describing as potentially Hamas. It sounds like, like.
- [71:55]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
And what you will see now. And again the, the proof is in the reality of what we're seeing in the be in the beginning days of distribution, what GHF under the umbrella in coordination with the IDF called Phase 1. Phase 1, establish the sites, run the sites and begin collecting data. It was never about humanitarian aid. Start building these persons of interest mug shots, they even call them that mug shots already.
- [72:24]
Ryan Grim
So when they get a package to take a photo.
- [72:27]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
So if you're, you know, so facial recognition software, cameras on site that are doing that, they're set up to look for certain characteristics. Right now what you will see in the distribution that's happening now with people that are coming down to the south to this large 2.7 kilometer area concentration camp that GHF is running, they, they call it a, a humanitarian village. But when you displace a population and you concentrate them in an area and you put them on a camp that has a name, it's a concentration camp. So when you look at how that was being done now, the majority of, of Palestinians coming to the sites are women and children are elderly because that's all that's left. Because what, what wasn't advertised and wasn't told is that if you leave your house and you're going to site 1, 2 or 3 sites 1, 2 and 3 are all south of the Morag corridor, which is a militarized corridor that bisects the southern portion from the central well. If you want to go to site one, two or three to get food, you have to cross that corridor. Once you cross that corridor, you don't go home. You're, you cross the corridor, you go to get your food on your way back and you hit the intersection of a, of a site in the Morag corridor. You're assigned to one of the encampments, Eunice Camp, Milwaukee Camp. You never go home. So then your family, this is the.
- [73:50]
Ryan Grim
Trap that my colleague Jeremy Scarahill described. It's a trap being set up.
- [73:53]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
It's a trap and then it's a one way trap and then your family that's back home or already in A UN encampment. A lot of the people that came to get food from these sites were already in UN encampments. UN encampments that, oh, by the way, are not being run, managed by the un. So because the UN is out. So it was designed that way and it will continue.
- [74:21]
Ryan Grim
And did you see people detained and interrogated? And could that be related to these enforced disappearances?
- [74:28]
Krystal Ball
That's what the, the claim from the IDF is. If the initial field questioning, people come in after hours, are around the compound. They say if the initial field questioning raises suspicion that a detainee has engaged in activity against our forces, the suspect is transferred for further interrogation. In Israel, detainees for whom there is no justification for detention or release into the Gaza Strip, while those for whom grounds exist for continued detention in accordance with the law, are brought before a judge and are entitled to legal representation as provided by law. That's the claim.
- [74:57]
Ryan Grim
And to this, can you add the context of. They say after hours. But how do people know when the hours are and how consistent are these hours?
- [75:05]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
That's a. That is a great question. Because the truth is they don't. It's all left to obscurity and confusion to, you know, kind of like, I equate it to, like, if you were trying to get your taxes done at the dmv, like, which line do I go to? Like, where does this exist? How do I, how do I do this?
- [75:22]
Ryan Grim
What are the hours?
- [75:23]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Oh, that building's over there. What are the hours? Oh, we're only open every four, fourth Sunday.
- [75:26]
Ryan Grim
Right?
- [75:26]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
You're like.
- [75:27]
Ryan Grim
And sometimes.
- [75:28]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Every sometimes, yeah, we close for, for lunch eight days a week.
- [75:31]
Ryan Grim
And we'll let you know when we close.
- [75:33]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
We'll let you know. So it's like, it's. So it's intentionally designed to be confusing and, and cryptic and, and how it's being done now to the point of the actual detention. One anecdote I witnessed, one I did not witness, but I'm intimately familiar with. I'll start with the latest. The latter Middle Eastern eye. They have a reporter that was recently killed who was in Nasser Hospital, that reporter that did the story about Amir, the story that was broke about my, my interaction with Amir, the person that then followed through on that story because GHF came out and said, oh, he's fine. Here he is. And showed a different, a different boy altogether. So Middle Eastern eye, who's in Gaza, followed that up and ident and found his, his mother and talked to his mother. And days later last week, that individual, that reporter, the Person that wrote that story, who is further looking into the disappearance of Amir, where's his body was detained and questioned on site number three, the Khan Yuna site. Then further detained and then a few days later, right? Yes, sir. Yes, sir.
- [76:52]
Ryan Grim
Muhammad Salama. Look up his. He did. And he did some great reporting on the 16 medics that were killed in the. In Rafah.
- [76:59]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Yes, that's right. He was killed.
- [77:01]
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
- [77:02]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
In the Nasser Hospital.
- [77:03]
Ryan Grim
Right. Hit. Right. So then they detained a source of his. Right, so go.
- [77:07]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Yes, they detained a source of his, specifically trying to find out where he was.
- [77:11]
Ryan Grim
Right.
- [77:12]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
And then days later, he as well as others are hit in Nasser Hospital, which is directly north of Khan Yunus. So when you put these pieces together, it seems awfully convenient.
- [77:24]
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
- [77:24]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
And the. Now, I did not witness that, but it's reported.
- [77:30]
Ryan Grim
Right.
- [77:31]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
And the individual that. That was a source is dead. What I did witness was in early June, an individual who worked at the site, site number two, distribution site two, which is in southern Rafah, the Kogat, the organization out of the Ministry of Defense of Israel that covers governance and the territories, they had aligned Palestinian workers, Palestinians that live in Gaza, that got vetted through them to then work for us at these sites. And in that time, within like the first couple days of distribution, one of their buses was hit, and apparently that was blamed on Hamas. There's no. Hamas cannot operate in the area that far south of the Morocco corridor unless the Israelis let them. There's just.
- [78:24]
Ryan Grim
You can't. Right, because you're talking about 5-15km through the desert with total drone surveillance. Total drone surveillance and no tunnel network.
- [78:33]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Tanks.
- [78:33]
Ryan Grim
Right.
- [78:34]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Infantry tunnels have been destroyed, full coverage, and everything is flattened. You're not looking at a city.
- [78:40]
Ryan Grim
Right.
- [78:41]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
So for Hamas to openly have operated and shot up this bus of 25 Palestinian workers on. In. In late May, early June, the only way that could have happened is if. Is if the IDF led it or it didn't happen happen and they were killed another way, because how do we know? So on this particular incident, on this day in early June at site number two, I cannot recall the exact date, but we got a call from Kogat, a radio phone call from. From Kogat to our operations center that said one of the local Palestinian workers on site two is Hamas. And our position on it was like, you're the ones that vetted him. Like, what are you talking about? Like, hey, I brought a guest to your house and man, he's a jerk. You brought him like, he's your guest?
- [79:29]
Ryan Grim
Yes.
- [79:30]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
So these people that Were here that were working on the site. Kogod says, oh, one of them is Hamas. Okay, well, how do you do that? Like, does it. If I pat him down, does he have his Hamas membership card? If I take off his shirt, is he wearing a Hamas T shirt? How do you know that? Well, he has connections, really. So ghf, UG Solutions, American contractors who, mind you, are in Israel, in Gaza on a tourist visa, detained this man and would not let him leave until the IDF said he could leave, took his passport, took any of his identification, would not let him leave, and he was under the control of UG Solutions until the IDF told us that he could either leave or he was going to be taken away by the IDF and this prolonged to the point to where it's almost as if the IDF wanted to tire us out or wait us out to say, like, oh, we'll just come and get him. But then later, at 2:00 clock in the morning, remember? And 2:00 clock in the morning,. It's hunting season, if you will, for the IDF out there, it gives them the perfect excuse that anybody out moving around, well, they must be bad. So this man gets released, go back home. And he begged, cried and begged not to be put off the site. And just put. He was like, I live all the way in Beresh, which is north by the Netzerim corridor. I can't get home from here. I'm going to get killed. Either, you know, by Hamas for supporting this effort or by the idf. And this man was released and set out from the site to his own, to his own device, to his own devices. And moments later, north of the site. Now, I didn't see a drone strike or a missile strike hit this individual, but moments later, as he left the site, in the area that he was walking, there was a strike. So is, is it any doubt to me that the UG Solutions under Gaza Humanitarian Fund are part of this detention and extra questioning tactic, Gestapo tactics, if you will. They absolutely are. Americans on tourist visas are detaining people on behalf of the idf. That should be very concerning to any American that is paying their tax dollars towards this effort.
- [82:06]
Ryan Grim
Yeah, and also for the men or women who. It was all men. Are there any women there?
- [82:13]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Of the Palestinian workers, contractors?
- [82:14]
Ryan Grim
I mean, any of the contractors.
- [82:16]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Oh, from UG Solutions, during my time there, it was all men. I can't say what there is now.
- [82:22]
Ryan Grim
These men went there on a tourist visa and participated in murdering somebody, Most.
- [82:29]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Likely participated in murder, participated as elements, as tools of a planned genocide. And A planned forced displacement. The bait, the anecdote you gave or the analogy you gave of the bait. Well, if you think about bait in a mousetrap, well, the, the people guarding that bait to bring everybody in are American contractors.
- [82:55]
Ryan Grim
Right now we could put up this second element on the screen. The Washington Post has finally followed the Financial Times and some of its reporting on the Boston Consulting Group and others who have put together plans that they say are circulating among administration officials that would see basically the population of Gaza expelled. There would be some opportunity, some Gazans would get a token and they could use a token to come back and buy like an apartment in a digital token in the future. Gulfified Gaza. That would be the Riviera that Trump has talked about. This plan even included from north to south what they called an MBS highway, east to west, like an MBZ highway named after Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE trying to get their buy in by naming streets after them. So the plans are advanced for a post Palestinian Gaza. As you witness what's going on on the ground unfold, do you think that it is, is past the point of no return or do you think that the clock is still ticking on whatever the strategy is?
- [84:16]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
The clock is still ticking, but we are seconds away from that clock striking midnight. There is time for the world to make a humane decision, but there's also time to do nothing as we've been doing as a world community.
- [84:36]
Ryan Grim
The.
- [84:39]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
The final solution, if you will, in this greater plan, this plan for a post war Gaza and what that would look like with this real estate venture, the Riviera Tech parks and all these things, you know, things that your voluntary Palestinian would not want, they want to live in their land. So one, this notion of we're going to kill everybody, consolidate them, move them out, rebuild their homeland and then give them a token to come back in. That's laughable. And then this aspect of the plan has always been from before we even opened the sites. The Boston Confidential bcg, Boston Consulting Group had already developed this plan for this post war real estate venture that was already planned. That didn't, that's not something that came about in the last week's like, oh, we'll do this. It was the plan from the beginning. So what that will, will look like in Gaza is, is the, the forced displacement of the entire population. And we don't have much time left because the final phase of that, the final solution to ridiculous Gaza of all Palestinians is already happening. Operation Gideon's Chariots 2 in the north to clear Gaza City, to Jabalya to Arez. That was not supposed to begin operationally until the end of September because the IDF has to call up 60,000 reserves. They have people that aren't wanting to fight. They don't have the forces to execute that offensive in an actual military way. They're just going to use bombing.
- [86:19]
Ryan Grim
Bombing, yeah. Last night they were bombing. Dropping incendiary devices on tents. Yes, burning tents. So is that. Is the U.N. do you suspect that that's happening? Because they don't have the manpower.
- [86:29]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Absolutely.
- [86:30]
Ryan Grim
But they can drop bombs. They.
- [86:32]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
They are critically short on manpower, especially in the north, for an offensive and calling up 60,000 reserves that you don't have time to train or prepare. Israel knows that. Putting Israelis. I think yesterday or the day before, there was the article about the ultra orthodox that have been forced into service. If they go into the offensive on the ground and try to fight this in a way that a moral army would fight this war, a lot of people will die, a lot of Israelis will die, and Israel is not going to stand for that. So they're going to bomb. The reason I feel that that we have time, but not much, as in within the next 19 days, 20 days. The question of a Palestinian state or the question of the Palestinians existence and the right to exist won't even be a question if we don't do something now. Because Operation Gideon's Chariots, too, they started it a month early. The 60,000 reserve call up. They're bringing them in, but they've already started the bombing campaign. And they're not only coming from the south, they're coming from the north. They're halving the time and how long it would have taken them. So before the Palestinian question comes to the UN General assembly on 22 September, it's likely that if the world doesn't condemn this displacement and the starvation and stop the war, it is highly likely that there will not even be a question of a Palestinian state come the 22nd of September.
- [88:09]
Ryan Grim
We won't be discussing when the UN.
- [88:11]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Meets, when the UN General assembly meets. We won't be discussing a future of Palestine. We will be discussing the memoriam of millions that have died.
- [88:22]
Krystal Ball
Well, retired Lieutenant Colonel Anthony Aguilar, you're heading to Capitol Hill. Thank you for stopping by our show once again. On your way.
- [88:30]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Love what y' all do and thank you for having me.
- [88:32]
Ryan Grim
Always, always welcome here. Thanks for coming.
- [88:37]
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- [89:36]
Podcast Promo Voice
Imagine that you're on an airplane and all of a sudden you hear this.
- [89:40]
Krystal Ball
Attention passengers. The pilot is having an emergency and we need someone, anyone to land this plane.
- [89:48]
Podcast Promo Voice
Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control.
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Ryan Grim
And they're saying like okay, pull this.
- [89:58]
Podcast Promo Voice
Until this, pull that, turn this. It's just I can do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.
- [90:02]
Ryan Grim
I'm Noah.
- [90:03]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
This is Devin.
- [90:04]
Podcast Promo Voice
And on our new show, no Such Thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.
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Pam Bailey
Those who lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that they lack expertise.
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Podcast Promo Voice
And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the Runway.
- [90:25]
Krystal Ball
I'm looking at this thing.
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Ryan Grim
See?
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Podcast Promo Voice
Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [90:34]
Krystal Ball
My name is Ed.
- [90:35]
Podcast Promo Voice
Everyone say hello Ed.
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Krystal Ball
I'm from a very rural background myself. My dad is a farmer and my mom is a cousin.
- [90:42]
Ryan Grim
So like, it's not like what do.
- [90:44]
Krystal Ball
You get when a true crime producer walks into a comedy club? I know it sounds like the start of a bad joke, but that really was my reality nine years ago.
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Ryan Grim
I just normally do straight stand up.
- [90:54]
Krystal Ball
But this is a bit different. On stage stood a comedian with a.
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Sagar Enjeti
Story that no one expected to hear.
- [91:01]
Today Show Announcer
On 22 July 2015, a 23 year.
- [91:05]
Krystal Ball
Old man had killed his family.
- [91:11]
Ryan Grim
And.
- [91:11]
Today Show Announcer
Then he came to my house.
- [91:15]
Sagar Enjeti
So what do you get when a true crime producer walks into a comedy club?
- [91:19]
Krystal Ball
A new podcast called Wisecrack where stand up comedy and murder take center stage. Available now Listen to Wisecrack on the.
- [91:30]
Sagar Enjeti
Iheartradio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [91:36]
Krystal Ball
The House Oversight Committee yesterday released documents that the Justice Department turned over to the committee about the investigations into Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. That said, Representative Ro Khanna tells us that we can quote him less than 1% of those documents, less than 1% of those documents are new. So much of what was released yesterday was already public. But Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie are right now actually as, as a recording assembling a press conference of people who say they've survived abuse at the hands of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell on Capitol Hill as they rally support for a discharge petition that would force a vote on releasing more Epstein files on Capitol Hill. So they believe they can pressure. They need to get enough Republicans. If they get every Democrat, they need to get six Republicans, so five, not including Massie, to support forcing that vote with the discharge petition. And they believe rallying and having House Republicans hear from people who say they survived abuse at the hands of Epstein and Maxwell will help compel members to join the cause and force that vote. So after House Republicans met with some of those people who say they were abused by Epstein and Maxwell just last night, here's what Representative Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican, had to say. The biggest thing that stands out to.
- [92:58]
Ryan Grim
Me is the victims themselves have stated.
- [93:01]
Sagar Enjeti
That, that this is a lot bigger.
- [93:03]
Ryan Grim
Than I think anyone anticipated. We are obviously going to be requesting.
- [93:08]
Krystal Ball
The SARS reports from treasury and also.
- [93:10]
Ryan Grim
Too, following up on that, there are some very rich and powerful people that need to go to jail.
- [93:15]
Krystal Ball
I think everyone's been frustrated as to why that hasn't happened before. But it is very much so a.
- [93:20]
Ryan Grim
Possibility that Jeffrey Epstein was an intelligence.
- [93:23]
Krystal Ball
Asset working for our adversaries. But also to I think the questions that we have is how much did our own government know about it. Some of these people actually told NBC News just on Tuesday night, so last night, that they're compiling basically their own client list of people that they know were in the Epstein orbit and are implicated by all of this. And also I think one of the interesting things happening now, Ryan, is some of these people who say they were abused are not the high profile folks who have been on the scene for years, sharing their experiences. Some of these people have not been in the press with the same level of exposure. And that's, I think, a pretty interesting development that Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie are bringing to the table right now.
- [94:12]
Ryan Grim
Yeah, and I thought it was interesting that Representative Luna, if you notice in the very end of the clip there, she said it's possible that Epstein was a foreign intelligence asset for one of our adversaries, which seems directed at debunking the claim that he was an asset for Israel, even though in the emails that we've gotten so far, one of his biggest interlocutors is Ehud Barak. Ehud Barak, not just a former prime minister. Perhaps more importantly, Barak is a key player in the advancement of Israel's cyber technology over the last 20 decades. He sits on a bunch of those boards. He's involved with a bunch of these companies. And one of the most significant kind of, I think, developments historically in the last 10, 20 years is the growth of Israel's cyber warfare capacity, which changed its, you know, power. Power balance with regard to Iran, Hezbollah, the PEDRA attack, et cetera. Like its ability to get inside the communications devices of its allies and adversaries is almost unrivaled. And Ehud Barak is a key part of that. And so Ehud Barak, being a key friend of Jeffrey Epstein, flies in the face of this claim that he was, but maybe he was also a foreign intelligence asset for an adversary. Like, just. Just because he was. Let's say he was an asset for the US And Israel doesn't mean he wasn't also one for Russia or.
- [95:52]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I think that's an important point. He could have been basically a freelancer that was a, quote, asset, however you want to define that, whether it was a formal arrangement or not, that was basically just selling his services to the highest.
- [96:05]
Ryan Grim
A decent number of. And. And Israel has a lot of relationships with Russia as well. And Epstein, if you go through the files that are already public, there's a lot of Victor Vekselberg and all. There's a bunch of Russians that are in the mix constantly.
- [96:19]
Krystal Ball
And you were referencing these emails that were posted by Distributed Denial of Secrets back in May of Ehud Barak, which is sort of ironic that Ehud Barak's inbox ends up on this WikiLeaks like website. And actually, Ryan, this is very. I'm curious how you respond to this, because you've covered things like Pegasus in the past. If you have Pegasus, you don't necessarily need to get people on a plane into an island. It's like the shortcut. You can jump into their device. Right.
- [96:49]
Ryan Grim
It's easier. Well, and that's Israeli. Right? There's still. Right. So Pegasus is this no click penetration of your phone. Like, basically, they'll send you A link link unfurls and if you don't have your phone say on Apple it's called lockdown mode. When the link unfurls, it sends the virus into the phone and they're in like you didn't, you didn't have to be a John Podesta and like accidentally put your, or have your assistant put the password in to change a password and give it to the Russians or whoever. Like it just, boom, they've got you. Right. On the other hand, getting people to the island, like getting people to the island is helpful too. Or in his mansion that is completely.
- [97:30]
Krystal Ball
Filled with cameras and Barack and Epstein were going back and forth actually on whether or not Barak would bring his security to the island. That's one of the leaked emails is him saying like, well I'm trying to do it without the security.
- [97:41]
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And also for people who are good at operational security, your phone should not actually have much on it at any given time. So even if they do manage to hack, they shouldn't be able to get much. And at least up until recently, if you turn your phone off and back on, it kicks Pegasus out. They may have fixed that, I don't know. But that's part of the security device that phones have. And every Pegasus hack is expensive. It's not like they can, it's not like sending, let's say they want to hack Emily over here. It's not like they can just constantly be sending her links every time they do it for whatever reason. It's like pretty expensive to do it. So if you keep kicking them back out and there's nothing in the phone in the six hours they're in there for them to get, then they didn't get anything. So if you can get somebody in a compromise position on an island or mansion, go for that for now.
- [98:40]
Krystal Ball
The old fashioned methods are still the best. I don't think you can take these shortcuts like modern kids who get lazy.
- [98:46]
Ryan Grim
You know, intel kids today I just want to click and get you. So I got to put the time in.
- [98:52]
Krystal Ball
Was ahud Barak involved in Pegasus?
- [98:56]
Ryan Grim
We can Google that one. He may, he may. He was since he's got his.
- [99:01]
Krystal Ball
But that's his business basically like that, that type of stuff.
- [99:03]
Ryan Grim
He's got his fingers in like so many different Intel.
- [99:07]
Krystal Ball
So let's roll this clip.
- [99:08]
Ryan Grim
He's co founder of Paragon Solutions.
- [99:10]
Krystal Ball
Oh yes.
- [99:12]
Ryan Grim
Which is. Paragon is kind of a rival that the Trump administration is actually just lifting some obstacles to, to bring them in and use them to try to hack immigrants around the country which is like not legal.
- [99:29]
Krystal Ball
But so they're a rival to NSO which is in charge of Pegasus.
- [99:35]
Ryan Grim
So. Yeah. So Ehud Barak co founder of Parrot.
- [99:37]
Krystal Ball
There you go. All right. Definitely Epstein. So right. So that. That space in the the industry. Let's roll this clip of Thomas Massie after the document dump yesterday. Massey is obviously working with Ron on the discharge position. Here's what he had to say.
- [99:53]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
It's like only 1% of what they.
- [99:55]
Pam Bailey
Possess and 97% of it's already been released.
- [100:01]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
I'm afraid is this is going to.
- [100:02]
Ryan Grim
Be be like Pam Bondi's binders is.
- [100:05]
Krystal Ball
People are going to dig into it.
- [100:07]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
And say there's nothing new here. They haven't given us anything. They've given us the sleeves off their vest.
- [100:12]
Krystal Ball
So he compared what happened yesterday. So those are documents from the Justice Department to the Oversight Committee as potentially being like Pam Bondi's binders all over again. We can roll D3 as we keep talking here. This is Nancy Mace leaving that meeting with people who say they experienced that abuse in tears. So I think Ryan. Whatever.
- [100:34]
Ryan Grim
But she later said that it triggered her like hearing that because within the last two years she was a victim of abuse.
- [100:41]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Yeah. So I was gonna say whatever. We don't even need to get into open up the Nancy Mace can of worms here. But we can just say that the stage is being set for a very very high pressure campaign on House Speaker Mike Johnson. They the White House is not wanting any Republicans to go along with this discharge petition pressure. So what does Marjorie Taylor Greene do? What does Nancy Mace do? What does Tim Burchett do? What happens in the future now or actually like literally now when these Republicans just came back from their August recess definitely hearing from people who want information on the Epstein files in their own districts. What decision do they make here? Because just to be clear all of this additional pushing for information. It's all in the hands of a select group of people at the Justice Department. There's absolutely nothing no one can do or anyone can do to make sure that you know.001% of the documents in existence that actually are potentially smoking gun documents. We've seen this with the JFK files. You can get 99% of the documents and the 1% of the documents that's actually important will always stay behind closed doors. Now that may or may not be the case with the JFK files. It may just be and this is potentially the case with the Epstein files that 50 years from now we're in the situation with the Epstein files that we're now with JFK files or 60, 70 years from now where we start getting that maybe that last 1% of documents. But just to be clear, like, people can push for as much transparency and they should push for as much transparency as they want, but nobody should be optimistic at all that the government is actually complying with these requests for the relevant information.
- [102:28]
Ryan Grim
Maybe that's the one thing we'll get when Trump dies.
- [102:31]
Krystal Ball
Potentially. Potentially. Or Bill Clinton. Or both.
- [102:37]
Ryan Grim
Bill Clinton. It's amazing that Democrats are still defending Bill Clinton and protecting him. Guys, he's been out of office for 25 years.
- [102:47]
Krystal Ball
But, you know, it's the same.
- [102:48]
Ryan Grim
Let him go.
- [102:48]
Krystal Ball
But with the Kennedy files is such a, I think, instruct a parallel here because it's the same thing with this in that people who might be implicated can die. And Mike Pompeo will still say there's a national security reason. You know, there are people who will be in danger if the JFK files are released in 2020. He can still make that claim. But what they're actually protecting in all likelihood is allied, quote, allied intelligence services and countries. So, and the institution of the CIA itself or whatever. And that doesn't go away just because people die. I suppose it gets easier to say that you've improved and reformed with time, but that's. We're not getting any. I think we're not getting any, like, smoking gun information in the near future, unfortunately.
- [103:34]
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
- [103:35]
Krystal Ball
All right, Ryan, let's move on to Asia, where we have actually a lot of video here. You're going to walk us through what's happening in Southeast Asia and Indonesia and the Philippines, because it's not getting a ton of play in American media.
- [103:49]
Ryan Grim
So, yes, we're seeing unrest all over Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia, but also in the Philippines and Malaysia. We can put up E1 here. All of these are corruption related and also related to people's sense that they're working harder and falling farther behind. Prices are getting out of control and that the elites and in particular the lawmakers are enriching themselves while not doing what they're supposed to be doing, in some cases through some flagrant corruption where they're taking millions of dollars or millions of whatever to build things, not building them. And then people are catching their kids going out and buying fancy cars. In other cases in Indonesia, the Philippines, lots of foreign travel and like lavish stipends for these lawmakers. While people are suffering. In Indonesia, protests began about these ridiculous stipends and travel that Indonesian lawmakers were getting as well as some corruption and then really exploded. We can put up E4 here when a police vehicle, you can see it here, smashes into a delivery driver who was not involved in the protests, who was just doing his job as a delivery driver. And then the crowds surround the vehicle, and the police vehicle keeps going and kills the man. And so this then took what were modest protests and took them, you know, and put them on steroids. Prabowo, who is the Indonesian former death squad guy, US Death squad guy, who's now kind of a little hostile to the U.S. kind of funny. Our own death squad guys.
- [105:44]
Krystal Ball
Can't even keep them happen.
- [105:45]
Ryan Grim
Can't even keep those in our orbit, has said he's going to prosecute these police officers. He said they're going to roll back some of these lavish treats and bonuses that these different lawmakers have, but also said he's going to crack down if people continue pushing hard. But the protests are getting quite serious. You can roll some of this VO from E2, a parliamentary building, not the main one, but one elsewhere. It was burned by protesters, killing some people inside of it. You've got troops in the street. You've got people pushing back pretty aggressively. In the Philippines, you have one of the big scandals being these, what they call ghost projects, Emily, where it's like the government will say, all right, we're going to build a seawall because there's so much flooding, and we're going to appropriate money. And then a politician buddy gets the contract, throws a couple stones and calls it a day. And the president recently went up there and looked at the. The seawall and was like, wait, there's no seawall here. And. And it's still. And it's still flooding constantly. We could jump out of this and go to E8, which is a bit of a mashup about what I was just explaining. Since July, there's been massive flooding over there with over 25 people dead, hundreds of thousands more displaced, schools and offices, air travel all suspended. And what's come to light from all this is the catastrophic failure of the Philippines flood control systems, which is weird because they've spent a lot of money on this. Around 5 billion USD this year alone, but it doesn't seem to be working at all. So where did all that money go? Well, it turns out it's going right into the pockets of the politicians and their families. The whole thing is corrupt. Tons of flood control projects were found to be poorly documented or unfinished. And there's been huge Outrage from the public.
- [107:47]
Today Show Announcer
For instance, the other week, the Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. To this town of Baliwag, which is just north of Manila. And you can see that there's this river that flows through it that dumps into the Manila Bay and it floods all the time. So much so that the government decided to invest 55 million pesos, which is an equivalent to about US$1.24 million to build a 220 meter river wall which would have stopped the flooding. And official paperwork from the public works stated that at the end of June that the project was. And when President Marcos arrived into Town on August 20, he found that there was no wall and there was nothing but a field where the water was getting dangerously close to the houses made of wood. Or this other flood wall in Lucina City that just cracked and collapsed earlier this month after it cost the government over 100 million pesos or roughly about $2 million to build. So when you have people like Sarah and her husband Carly Dasgaia, who own a couple of these construction companies, one of which that had a 96 million peso contracts of roughly about US$1.96 million to build one of these flood mitigation structures. And when the president of the country goes to Bulacan to visit this project that was allegedly completed earlier this year and finds a wall that is barely started and clearly abandoned right after Sarah Disgui just made a vlog showing off her brand new Mercedes, Maybach, Rolls Royce, Bentley and Porsche where she basically states, oh my God, I bought this Rolls Royce because it has an umbrella in the door. Where people like Claudine Co, whose father also owns construction companies who also received those flood contracts, is making video. Brand new Mercedes G Wagon with custom interior. Having such a hard time trying to figure out which one of daddy's credit cards to pay for gas with. Just a quick reminder, G Wagon's base cost is almost $150,000. Where Jammy cruise loves to flaunt her Chanel bags when her father has secured over 3.5 billion pesos or roughly 71 million US dollars worth of flood contracts again, while the rest of the country is literally drowning underwater.
- [109:36]
Ryan Grim
So in Malaysia we could put up E9. Here they went through this one MDB crisis which if you guys haven't seen what's it man on the Run documentary you were watching, right? Install Me all of a sudden.
- [109:51]
Krystal Ball
Oh yeah, oh yeah.
- [109:52]
Ryan Grim
It's this documentary.
- [109:53]
Krystal Ball
It's so wild.
- [109:53]
Ryan Grim
It's this documentary about this guy Jho Low, who was a Malaysian Official who basically teamed up with the UAE and some others to figure out how to move money around and steal more than a billion dollars. The book about it called the Billion Dollar Whale, I've done some reporting on it over the years, which is why I was in that documentary. And then this guy becomes friends with all these Hollywood celebrities, and he funded the Wolf of Wall street with the stolen money. And as far as we know, he's living on a yacht in China somewhere. He still haven't caught him. Nobody knows where the guy is. So Malaysia's like, okay, we're going to not do this anymore. Figure out how to not get ripped off again. Prime minister went to jail for that. And they rushed through this, like, ethics bill that everybody said, wait, don't rush this through. We want to take this seriously. And so they did this slapdash thing that now people are protesting as well. Meanwhile, the symbol for all of this, all three countries are using. Protesters are using the One Piece flag, which. Which, if you're an anime fan, you're like, well, good for these dudes. This is amazing.
- [111:03]
Krystal Ball
Producer Mac.
- [111:04]
Ryan Grim
Producer Mac was very excited to see the One Piece flag standing in for these rebels. I am not that much into anime, so I can't tell you much about it.
- [111:13]
Krystal Ball
Your kids are, though.
- [111:14]
Ryan Grim
Kids are in anime for sure. Every kid nowadays is deep into anime.
- [111:19]
Krystal Ball
I'll take your word for it.
- [111:20]
Ryan Grim
We need Producer Mac to explain to us why the One Piece flag is so appropriate, though.
- [111:25]
Krystal Ball
Producer Mack just sent over his thought quote, everyone loves anime. And I see he's typing now, so I think we're to get comments.
- [111:30]
Ryan Grim
I mean, yes, everyone does love anime.
- [111:32]
Krystal Ball
It's not just, oh, my gosh, Producer Griffin's typing too. He says, big true, and Mac says, it's a symbol of liberation and freedom. Okay, so take that to the bank. I trust Mac as a source on this.
- [111:43]
Ryan Grim
All right, get him, guys.
- [111:44]
Krystal Ball
Ryan, I don't know if you've caught this, but there's a debate happening on the sort of. I don't know what you could say, like, nationalist, right, about whether or not it's cringe to say civil war is potentially coming to America. But as you were breaking down these protests, it reminded me of the. This massive piece the Wall Street Journal published yesterday. Sager sent it to us. The headline was, americans lose faith that Hard work leads to economic gains. America is becoming a nation of economic pessimists. They write a new Wall Street Journal Newark poll finds the chair of people who say they have a good chance of improving their Standard of living fell to 25%, a record low in surveys dating back to 1987. More than three quarters said they lack confidence that life for the next generation will be better than their own. The poor found. And what's interesting about that is, you know, I think there's a non zero possibility that we look back on 2020 protests, January 6th in 2021 as the beginning of something and Luigi Mangione and what happened in midtown not long ago as a build up, not as the peak, but as something that was building up to a much more violent time that does more resemble the violence of, of the late 1960s. And that's obviously something that we want to avoid very much. But when you look at what's happening here, it's the sense of injustice. You can just go through the Batman movies if you want to see how that plays out, that they're getting cheated by people who are bringing the system for themselves. And that just creates such a powder keg. And we always think that it feels far off and distant, but I think we've had some indications that it might.
- [113:23]
Ryan Grim
Not be be right. And we also have to understand the way that the US really kind of outsourced its violence in the 20th century. As we think about violence here in the United States. Like we know the names of a lot of the people who were killed in the, say in the civil rights, during the civil rights movement. Whereas in Indonesia, the US backed death squads there killed half a million to a million people. We're talking 1960s, 70s within our lifetime. Philippines and Malaysia within our lifetimes have seen enormous amounts of US sponsored violence as well. And so, and so that leaves a mark on a society. And so I think that could be one reason you see more aggressive protests as well. That memory is there. The Prabowo, the Indonesia guy, like literally oversaw a massacre, for instance, that nearly killed Amy Goodman. Like she famously, infamously was covering this, covering the movement there, covering the kind of civil war, whatever you want to call it, and was very nearly killed in a massacre that killed enormous numbers of people. You can just, you can go look up prabow on Amy Goodman on that. And now he's president.
- [115:05]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, well, thanks for breaking all of this down. It's definitely not getting the play it deserves in American media.
- [115:12]
Ryan Grim
All right, up next, we're going to talk about a new book from writers in Gaza called We Are Not Numbers.
- [115:21]
Sagar Enjeti
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- [116:20]
Podcast Promo Voice
Imagine that you're on an airplane and all of a sudden you hear this.
- [116:25]
Krystal Ball
Attention passengers. The pilot is having an emergency and we need someone, anyone to land this plane.
- [116:33]
Podcast Promo Voice
Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control.
- [116:41]
Ryan Grim
And they're saying like, okay, pull this.
- [116:43]
Podcast Promo Voice
Until this, pull that, turn this. It's just I can do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.
- [116:47]
Ryan Grim
I'm Noah.
- [116:47]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
This is Devin.
- [116:48]
Podcast Promo Voice
And on our new show, no such Thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.
- [116:57]
Pam Bailey
Those who lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that they lack expertise.
- [117:04]
Podcast Promo Voice
And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the Runway.
- [117:10]
Krystal Ball
I'm looking at this thing.
- [117:11]
Podcast Promo Voice
See, listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [117:18]
Sagar Enjeti
The super secret bestie club podcast season four is here and we're locked in. That means more Juicy Cheeseman.
- [117:26]
Today Show Announcer
Terrible love advice.
- [117:27]
Sagar Enjeti
Evil spells to cast on your ex.
- [117:29]
Today Show Announcer
No, no, no, we're not doing that this season.
- [117:32]
Sagar Enjeti
Oh, well, this season we're leveling up.
- [117:34]
Today Show Announcer
Each episode will feature a special bestie and you're not going to want to miss it.
- [117:38]
Ryan Grim
Get in here.
- [117:40]
Today Show Announcer
Today we have a very special guest with with us, our new super secret bestie is the diva of the people.
- [117:46]
Krystal Ball
The diva of the people.
- [117:48]
Today Show Announcer
I'm just like texturex. My theory is that if you need to figure out that the stove is.
- [117:53]
Ryan Grim
Hot, go and touch it.
- [117:53]
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
Go and figure it out for yourself. Okay, that's us.
- [117:56]
Krystal Ball
What the heck?
- [117:57]
Ryan Grim
That's us. My name is Curly and I'm Maya. In each episode, we'll talk about love.
- [118:04]
Today Show Announcer
Friendship, heartbreaks, men, and of course, our faith.
- [118:09]
Sagar Enjeti
Listen to the Super Secret Bestie Club as a part of the Microtura Podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple.
- [118:16]
Ryan Grim
Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. A new book is out in the United States and it's called We Are not the Voices of Gaza's Youth, co edited by Ahmed Al Nuk and Pam Bailey and part of the project We Are Not Numbers that was founded in 2014 to give voice to young people in Gaza. Pam Bailey is joining us today to discuss this project. In this book, we encouraged Pam over the last several months that people go and buy Ray Fat Alir's book if I Must Die, not just because it was a terrific collection of poetry, prose and interviews, but also as an act of resistance to annihilation that just that the very act of reading the poetry, of reading these stories is a way to stand against the elimination of a people. And I would encourage everybody to do the same with We Are Not Numbers, which is. Let's back up. Tell us about the project We Are Not Numbers. First of all, thank you so much for being here.
- [119:28]
Pam Bailey
Thank you. Yeah, it was regarded numbers founded it in right in the aftermath of the 2014 Israeli war in Gaza, which at the time I thought would be like the worst in history. I could never imagine at the time that we'd be going through something like this, but it was the worst of the wars at that point in time. And I was living in Gaza at the time. And I met this young man. I had met this young man in Gaza at a party. And I sort of followed up with him on Facebook. I noticed that his, his Facebook profile had gone dark. He wasn't posting like I. He usually did. He was a prolific poster. And so I just reached out to him and said, you know, how are you? And he said, fine. And I said, no, no, no, tell me something real. Like, clearly something's wrong. It turned out his elder brother, who he idolized, had been killed, had been murdered in that war. And because I'm a writer by background and because I knew that he had been struggling to improve his English, instead of avoiding the topic like people tend to do when a tragedy happens, I leaned into it and I encouraged him to write a story about his brother to honor him, honor his memory, and help other people know who he really was. And so over the course of like three months, we passed this story back and forth. The young man is Ahmed, who's who now heads the project. And what was really, really important, and I think what this whole book tries to do, is that I learned in the course of that essay that he wrote that his brother had been killed because he was a member of the resistance, and he was afraid to tell me that. At first, he thought. He assumed that once I knew that I would no longer feel sympathy with his brother. But of course, that wasn't true, because by the time he told me that, he had told me all about his brother growing up, and I knew what kind of a kid he was. I knew what kind of what was going on in the life of the family, what he endured, what he saw that no child should ever see. And I realized, you know, that's the story we don't hear. We still don't hear here, right. We hear about Hamas and the people who fight for Hamas, and we think of them as terrorists. We don't think of them as humans, as individuals with stories. And we don't think about, gee, why did they get to the point where they felt like they had to do that? Same with October 7th. We don't question too many people. Don't question about, why did that happen? You know, it doesn't happen in a vacuum. People don't get to that point in a vacuum. And so I realized we have an important story, and I tried to get it published. It was the first time that a resistance fighter had been depicted as just an ordinary person. Also, at the same time, Ahmed came out of his depression. What's interesting is at that time, too, he was thinking that he should join the resistance, that he should become a fighter. He saw no other future for him. All he saw was a bleak future. So. So the act of writing and telling the story and actually seeing it get published convinced him that perhaps there was another way to resist. Now, what breaks my heart today is that. So I really did think when I started the project that this would give young writers, young people, another way to resist and express themselves. And I thought it might make a difference. When I went through all the stories that we had mentored over the years since the project got started in 2015, I just cried because you look at where we're at today, and I felt like I'd broken a promise to them. You know, I told them that this could make a difference. You know, this is another way. And if, you know, this war, what we're going through now, is worse. So much worse. And all the. Yeah, so it's. It's a heartbreak for me. Yeah.
- [123:28]
Krystal Ball
Well, I was gonna say, I mean, even what you just explained was not a conversation. I mean, in many corners of the American media, it's still not a conversation that you're allowed to have. You can't talk about people who commit acts of terrorism as human beings. Even if we take, like, the most hardened, reprehensible terrorist, asking questions about how they got from point A to point B, from being a baby to point B is forbidden. You're absolutely not allowed to have that conversation because you get lumped into a category as empathizing with acts of terrorism itself. So, Pam, can you tell us a little bit about when you spend time actually diving into these stories? What patterns maybe emerge? What are people missing by not digging into those particular stories?
- [124:21]
Pam Bailey
And I think what makes this book unique, there's been a lot of books about Gaza and Palestine that come out recently, which is wonderful to see. But what makes this book unique is that it's a collection of very real stories. These are not professional writers, which is the beauty of it, I think. Very real snippets of vignettes of life in Gaza over 10 years. And this book answers the question why October 7th happened? Because if you look going back from 2015, month after month, year after year, not only were there constant attacks in terms of Israeli forces coming in every year, we shouldn't hear about it all the time, but it's the everyday structural violence, the lack of water, just potable water water. The astronomically high unemployment rate, youth, they have a very high rate of education there. They go through college and everything. And then they come out to no hope of a job. They can't leave Gaza to pursue that. They can't even travel for a vacation. That's what I think comes out of the book. And the lesson I want people to take it was a grinding oppression in both the big ways, the attacks, and the small ways. Every day 247 for this gave us 10 years. You can't go through that kind of oppression and not. And not have something happen. And the other thing is that they also write about all the forms of nonviolent resistance that they tried. There's a number of stories you probably remember. There was the Great March of Return. There was nonviolent protest along the border with Israel. They called it for Return because it was like their desire to go back to their original land that they'd been kicked off of, but it was nonviolent. And they write about all the other ways. They've gone to the ICs, the International Criminal Court, they've really tried everything and it didn't work. And to me, the sad part is, I also want everybody to take home from this is that the only time they got attention, serious attention, is when there was violence. I mean, if we didn't want this to happen, maybe we didn't want October 7th to happen, then the international community should have responded and heard them when all those other things were going on. If you don't want people to resist, then show them that some other technique works. When people have no future, when people have, they can't even envision themselves living past the age of 30, what do you think? Some people are going to react. And this is true in our own country. Look at the American revolution solution. This is not a non violent country. But yeah, so I think, and the other thing I think is, I hope people get from the book is that you also have glimpses of just ordinary kids struggling with weight and with migraines and going to the beach, you know, woven in and all the tragedy, you know, is everyday life. And you start to recognize that there, there's no difference between them and us.
- [127:27]
Ryan Grim
And to the point about nonviolence, the Palestinian Authority, the PLO put down arms and entered into negotiations with Israel in the hopes that it would lead to some two state solution and a slowdown in settlements. Instead, the settlements expanded. And just this last week the US even said that members of the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas, Palestinian Authority, would be denied the opportunity to even travel to New York to attend the United nations upcoming assembly, which when the US agreed to take the United nations or asked if it could host the United nations, one of the deals was we are going to allow even our worst enemies to come here to New York. Doesn't mean they can go around the entire country. They can come to New York and they can go to the US because it would give us an immense amount of power if we're going to have the UN and we can just keep people out of the country and not let them attend the United Nations. And the one group of people we do that to is the officials with the Palestinian Authority who did everything that they were supposed to do but lay down their arms, enter negotiations and so on. I'm curious for what you've been hearing about this because there's a paradox at play in the sense that that October 7th led to where we are today, which is utter absolute catastrophic annihilation of Gaza. On the other hand, a lot of people who, like you said, committed to nonviolent forms of resistance over the last Decades have told me they question that decision. And I say it's a paradox because the violent path led to this utter, complete catastrophe. Yet still internally, they're feeling like, well, perhaps that was all there was. So how are the people that you're talking to sorting through that question?
- [129:26]
Pam Bailey
Well, you know, there's sort of, I guess a split between the activist community outside and our Gazan writers who are still trap there at this point. The people in Gaza, they just, they just want it all to stop. You know, I mean, what, what breaks my heart is that, you know, this is a very proud people who, rightfully so, are very proud of their culture. And they're reduced to the point now of being willing to accept anything. You know, you want them to all leave and go to Uganda, you know, then, okay, then we will, but just stop the kill. Stop the killing. And they're reduced to that. And the conundrum here is like, from the outside, from an activist point of view. I mean, of course, this is probably the point in time that we've seen the largest growth in supporters of Gaza and Palestine. I mean, there's a huge change. I mean, to see even the number of Democrats we have in Congress, you know, proposing a bill to stop arms sales to Israel is, you know, we've never been there before. And isn't it a shame that this is what it took? This really is what it took. You know, where were they when, you know, all those years of just like not being able to live, you know, I mean, you know, not having power. I mean, when I lived there, we had electricity for three hours a day, day, every day. Americans complain if they're without a power for like a couple of days. I mean, I often say, you put an American over there for, say I give them three months, some of them will be throwing rockets. I mean, some of them will, you know, that this is human nature. That's how we respond to oppression, you know, so it's a little bit, it's. To me, I have this sort of like dueling thing is like, like we've gotten the cause for Palestine to a point in terms of broad base of public support and even some politicians who are always way behind is at a point we've never been before. But this is what it took.
- [131:40]
Krystal Ball
A little bit of a follow up on Ryan's question. It was less than a year ago. We were being told by Anthony Blinken that Antony Blinken that Hamas had already reconstituted. And we know this in different parts, parts of Gaza. And the entire purpose of the War, from Netanyahu's perspective, was to return the hostages and eradicate Hamas. Does any of what's happened over the course of the last several years, has that made Hamas, from your perspective, having talked to people in these places, has this fueled future violent conflicts? Has this made them more powerful, less powerful? Is this going to create a generation of Gazans who are more attracted to the cause of Hamas? What do you make of what happens now?
- [132:35]
Pam Bailey
I see. I think there's a mistake in focusing on Hamas. We should talk about the resistance, because one thing that was really important that was said earlier is that I don't believe it's really about Hamas at all. Israel has never supported any Palestinian movement that had any kind of power. They were against Yasser Arafat. They actually helped create Hamas in the very beginning as a counterweight to the Palestinian Authority. They will not like anybody who is in power over the Palestinians that they don't control. So I don't think this is about Hamas at all. And the question should be not so much whether Hamas will continue, but will the resistance continue. And I believe that despite the fact that you do have, the people overall are at a point now, and many of them would just give everything up, the resistance will come back. You can pound it for a while into the underground, into submission, but it will come back. I mean, that's what history, I think, has shown us. You tell me, one country where you haven't had this kind of oppression and resistance totally went away. It doesn't happen.
- [133:49]
Ryan Grim
Anything else you'd like to say about the book before we wrap?
- [133:53]
Pam Bailey
I do think that what you said earlier, but buying this book is an act of resistance that Americans can do. What's going on in the US With President Trump's latest action, suspending or threatening not to give visas to anybody, the Palestinian passport holder is trying to keep this narrative from coming out. So one way you can fight those kinds of actions is to buy the book and give it to people, talk about it. And again, what I think is really important about this book is these are not. There's a few Palestinians that have become, like, really prominent, but there are so many more. That talent is so broad. And that's what, to me, is also the beauty of the book. It's not just one person who manages somehow to get above the fray and get, like, in the New Yorker or whatever all the time. There's all these others, invisible Palestinians. And this book is a collection of those stories. Lyrically, it's important. So I would say please buy it, because if we can make it a bestseller in the US that sort of sends a message to the administration. No, we want to hear these voices and we value them. And it sends a message to the writers, too. It tells them that we're hearing you. We can't control our government, but we are hearing you and we value your voices.
- [135:06]
Ryan Grim
And I think people will also want to know where the proceeds are going.
- [135:10]
Pam Bailey
It's all going to be Internet numbers. It goes through the project and we're desperately trying to help. I say about half of our writers are still there, and we're really trying to help them. It's difficult to get money in right now. You have these sort of vultures that take half of half or more.
- [135:26]
Ryan Grim
No, I can confirm that. Yeah.
- [135:28]
Pam Bailey
But we're trying desperately to support them. And any money we get from the book is going to help do that.
- [135:36]
Ryan Grim
Well, Pam Bailey, thank you so much for taking the time and best of luck on the rollout of the book.
- [135:42]
Pam Bailey
Thank you so much for having me.
- [135:44]
Ryan Grim
You got it. I was lucky enough to get an early copy of the book. It's very good. It's rare to get, you know, these ground level insights from people who've been. Become quite good writers.
- [135:57]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I'll have to check it out. I mean, I can't say I agreed with everything there, but what is remarkable is that it's a conversation you are not allowed to have still. It's a conversation you are not allowed to have. Because if you answer some of those questions, they go into a very uncomfortable place for the United States and for Israel as to whether Israel has actually made its own people more safe in the way this war has been waged. And I think, you know, that has been greatly to our detriment.
- [136:25]
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And Ahmed's case is instructive in the sense that, you know, we always, we all understand that when you. We understood in Afghanistan, you drone strike a family, you might kill one member of the Taliban, you probably created three more. And so killing his brother, who was in the resistance, killed him. But then his brother wanted to join, but was then persuaded in a nonviolent direction instead, through the hope that the sword, the pen would be mightier than the sword. Turned out neither were a match at this point.
- [137:04]
Krystal Ball
And I wish I had the exact quote actually. Here it is. This is from Antony Blinken. Again, this was as the Biden administration was leaving office. He said, each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and reemerge because there's nothing else to fill the void. Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. This is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war. That is from Antony Blinken saying that. And that's where one of the things I disagreed with Pam on is that it's I think it is very worthwhile the focus on Hamas narrowly as opposed to the resistance broadly, as she said. Because not that we don't have to get into this debate or anything, but I mean, if Hamas itself is recruiting, by the US's estimate, almost as many new people who had been lost by last year, the end of 2024.
- [137:55]
Ryan Grim
What.
- [137:55]
Krystal Ball
Is all of this death actually? What purposes is it serving at that point?
- [137:59]
Ryan Grim
So that's why full extermination seems to be on the docket. As Anthony Aguilar talked about today.
- [138:05]
Krystal Ball
Crazy show. This was jam packed. So thank you to everybody. If you want to get a premium subscription, which means you get the show early, right in your inbox and you get access to the second half of the Friday show. Lots of fun stuff behind the paywall. It's good stuff behind the paywall. You can head over to breakingpoints.com subscribe there. No problem. If you can't, most important thing is subscribing on YouTube. That helps us so much.
- [138:26]
Ryan Grim
Yep, and Emily and I will see you on Friday.
- [138:29]
Krystal Ball
Take us.
- [138:41]
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