Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: 9/9/25 – Zohran Dominates Every Issue In NYC, Israel Strikes Qatar, GenZ Gender Divide
Date: September 9, 2025

Episode Overview

Krystal Ball and Sagar Enjeti, joined by Dave Weigel and Jeremy Scahill, dissect three headline stories:

1. The dominance of leftist candidate Zohran in NYC’s mayoral race
2. Reports of Israeli strikes/assassinations in Qatar, amidst U.S. ceasefire mediation
3. New polling on the Gen Z gender divide and shifting partisan identification

The episode offers in-depth analysis of emerging trends in American electoral politics, U.S.-Israel policy, and cultural shifts among America’s youngest adult voters, marked by candid discussion and sharp insights from the hosts and guests.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Zohran’s Commanding Lead in NYC’s Mayoral Race

[02:38 – 08:32]

Polling Deep Dive

• Zohran leads a four-way NYC mayoral race:
  • Zohran: 46%
  • Cuomo: 24%
  • Curtis Sliwa: 15%
  • Eric Adams: 9%
• In a head-to-head with Cuomo, Zohran’s lead narrows but he still wins by about 4 points.
• Zohran is the most liked candidate (+13 approval); all other major candidates are underwater.
• On all key issues—affordability, housing, taxes/spending—Zohran outperforms rivals.

“He [Zohran] is the only candidate who most voters say they like... Everyone else is trying to do the classic multi candidate field thing of dragging him below the water, but dragging themselves below the water, dragging each other below the water too. No one's getting the advantage.” – Dave Weigel (04:29)

Crime and the Israel-Palestine Issue

• On crime, Zohran “edges out” Cuomo, despite rivals’ efforts to paint him as “soft.”
• Eric Adams polls poorly on crime despite his police legacy and falling crime rates during his tenure.

“Adams does quite poorly on the issue of crime, even though... that was sort of like his bread and butter. And crime has actually come down under his tenure and yet Zohran has much higher approval.” – Asma Khalid (05:49)

• Zohran dominates on the Israel/Palestine question, benefiting from attacks that tried to label him antisemitic.

“Not only did that argument fail, but it actually redounded to his benefit... It also made [his opponents] look like they were focused on these other superfluous issues.” – Asma Khalid (05:49)

Shifting Political Terrain

• “Intensity gap” among younger, progressive Jewish voters becomes a key factor—undermining an older Democratic view of Jewish/New York voting patterns.
• Pro-Israel vote is split among the rest; Zohran encompasses most “pro-Palestinian/pro-diplomacy” support.

2. The “Abundance” vs. Nationalist Policy Divide

[08:32 – 23:10]

Emergence of the Abundance Movement

• Recent conferences reveal center-left and libertarian policy circles grappling with Zohran's popularity.
• Abundance movement: Coalition of build-more-liberal-YIMBYs (“Yes In My Backyard”), pro-growth progressives, and deregulation-friendly libertarians.
• Donor support from Silicon Valley, “libertarian-liberal” philanthropists.

“Affordability is the most powerful message in politics... and we in the abundance movement do not have the branding... the way Zohran has, or to a lesser extent, Donald Trump has.” – Dave Weigel (09:19)

• Internal tensions: Factional disagreements over immigration, deregulation, and “who gets the goodies.”
• Progressive YIMBYs and libertarians generally want more immigration; the electorally-minded worry that unrestricted migration will backfire with existing homeowners.

“There are different views of what abundance means. Does it mean those restrictions to make it necessary? Does it mean just a deregulation where there are few trade-offs?” – Dave Weigel (13:33)

Nationalist (NatCon) Conference Highlights

• National conservatives (Trump allies, Stephen Miller, etc.) express confidence: Trump faces no serious challenge, left “in disarray.”
• “Crack” in coalition: Younger nationalists and “America First” voices want U.S. distance from Israel (“don’t want to die for Israel”)—a new generational split.
• Debates over interventionism vs. anti-interventionism highlight ideological flux and generational divides.

“Young people are learning that all our movement does is cut taxes and give money into foreign wars.” – Kurt Mills (Mills clip, 19:44)

Notable Moment

• Play of Kurt Mills’ speech (19:44) denouncing conservative hypocrisy on free speech for Palestinian supporters, criticizing “whip-wielding” Republicans calling critics antisemitic.

“This dynamic is dementing. One could be forgiven for believing the only people this administration is reliably deporting are supporters of the Palestinian cause...” – Kurt Mills (19:44)

Synthesis

• Both left and right movements are in flux: Abundance is trying to rebrand classic liberalism/deregulation, while the right faces internal schisms on foreign policy and Israel.
• Legacy Democrats (Schumer/Jeffries) refuse to endorse Zohran, likely due at least in part to his Middle East policy stands.

“Schumer, Jeffries, et cetera, who won't even endorse Zoran... certainly Israel is a part of that calculus...” – Asma Khalid (22:52)

3. Israel, Gaza, and the Qatar Assassination Strike

[25:14 – 39:55]

Breaking News: Explosion/Assassination in Doha

• Reports of an Israeli strike targeting Hamas offices/officials in Qatar.
• Israel has a long record of extraterritorial assassinations (“not just within the borders of historic Palestine, but externally”). (27:27)
• Context: Israeli Chief of Staff threatened Hamas leaders abroad if surrender doesn’t happen.

“Israel has a long history of assassinating Palestinian political figures... So we should be watching this very carefully...” – Jeremy Scahill (25:43)

Trump Ceasefire Proposal and Negotiation Realities

• Trump issues a 100-word ceasefire proposal to Hamas demanding release of all captives within 48 hours, vague commitments on Palestinian prisoner releases.
• The proposal appears to push for near-unconditional Hamas capitulation, with the installation of a new government in Gaza required before even discussing Israeli withdrawal.
• Hamas sees the proposal as an Israeli-written “surrender order.” (28:37)

“Talking privately to officials from Hamas, they have compared this essentially to a surrender document. They suspect that it was written by Israel...” – Jeremy Scahill (28:37)

• Amir Sagal (Netanyahu ally) publicly describes the U.S. proposal as “an Israeli proposal wrapped in fancy American cellophane.”

Intractable Terms and Perpetual Occupation

• Hamas already made major concessions: accepting a buffer zone, reduced demand for prisoner releases, willingness to step down from power.
• They refuse total “demilitarization,” which they see as surrendering the Palestinian liberation cause itself, not just Hamas.

“They view that not as a surrender of Hamas... but that it would be them taking the outrageous action of surrendering the Palestinian cause of liberation.” – Jeremy Scahill (35:04)

U.S. and Gulf States Caught in the Crossfire

• Discuss whether Israel could carry out such a strike in Qatar without at least tacit U.S. knowledge or approval (Centcom is based in Doha; strong U.S.-Qatar military ties).
• Perception in the Gulf: Israel can now “do whatever it wants in that region” without resistance from surrounding Arab states.

“The cold hard fact is that... Israel can do whatever it wants in that region and not a single Arab country... are going to do a thing about it.” – Jeremy Scahill (38:48)

4. Gen Z Gender and Partisan Divide – NBC Polling Analysis

[41:59 – 53:55]

Key Poll Findings

• Definition of success starkly split:
  • Gen Z Men (Trump voters): Highest value on having children, getting married.
  • Gen Z Women (Harris voters): Lowest value on those same goals; prioritize fulfilling career, financial independence, emotional stability.
  • Even Trump-voting women place “having children” much lower than Trump-voting men.

Culture, Economy, and Changing Aspirations

• Sagar argues this shift is the result of “neoliberalism’s total victory,” economic scarcity, influencer culture, and the unattainability of traditional goals replacing them with “Instagram-ification” of success.
• Warns the U.S. is on a path similar to depopulating, hyper-individualistic Japan.

“I think the results are disastrous... this really is downstream to me of a lot of policy and also of culture... they're constantly chasing little luxuries... because the big things in life are so unaffordable.” – Sagar Kashyap (44:18)

• Krystal tempers Sagar’s analysis: “successful parenthood” isn’t simply “having kids,” and poll language may reflect age/gender perspective differences.

“It’s actually kind of weird to put having kids as your personal definition of success, like something you have to accomplish. Now, maybe... from a male perspective it kind of entails... the financial stability to be able to pull this off...” – Asma Khalid (46:57)

• Both note that economic conditions, unattainably high home ownership costs, and cost of marriage exert a structural force on values.
• Krystal and Sagar discuss social media, “hustle culture,” rise of AI chatbots, and the potential for further derailing traditional family formation and relationships.

Broader Youth Volatility and Political Realignment

• Harry Enten (clip at 54:06): Trump’s approval is “swimming with the fishies”—major declines among <30 voters and Hispanics since February 2025.

“No wonder Donald Trump's in trouble. He's steady across the board. And since February... he's only gotten significantly worse among two very key groups...” – Harry Enten (54:06)

Hosts’ Reflections

• Sagar: “Elections change. They change all the time... So this is something all politicians should notice, you should fight because you never know what actually could happen.” (56:02)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On NYC Race:
  – “Everyone else is trying to do the classic multi candidate field thing of dragging him below the water... No one's getting the advantage.” – Dave Weigel (04:29) – “...Not only did that argument [of antisemitism] fail, but it actually redounded to his benefit.” – Asma Khalid (05:49)

• On Political Movements:
  – “Affordability is the most powerful message in politics... and we in the abundance movement do not have the branding... the way Zohran has.” – Dave Weigel (09:19)
  – “Young people are learning that all our movement does is cut taxes and give money into foreign wars.” – Kurt Mills (19:44, clip)

• On Middle East Assassinations:
  – “Israel has a long history of assassinating Palestinian political figures... not just within the borders of historic Palestine, but externally.” – Jeremy Scahill (25:43) – “...If this is true, then what they're doing... they are killing the very people that Donald Trump just sent a offer to to try to reach a ceasefire deal.” – Jeremy Scahill (34:26)

• On Gen Z Gender Divide:
  – “You won. Neoliberalism has officially won and I think that the results are disastrous.” – Sagar Kashyap (44:18) – “All I can think is, yeah, it's just like total neolib economic utility victory. And I don't think it's how it should be.” – Sagar Kashyap (44:18) – “I want to temper your sadness a bit because... just the act of having kids is my definition of quote unquote success, I'd say no.” – Asma Khalid (46:57)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:38 – Start of Zohran/NYC polling breakdown
• 04:29 – Dave Weigel on Zohran’s popularity
• 05:49 – Asma Khalid on crime issue & Israel/Palestine arguments
• 06:54 – Weigel on generational shifts among NYC Jewish voters
• 08:32 – Asma Khalid introduces abundance and natcon conferences
• 09:19 – Weigel on the branding/coalitional limits of the abundance movement
• 13:33 – Ideological tensions inside the abundance coalition
• 16:09 – National conservative confidence post-2024
• 19:44 – Kurt Mills clip on speech and Israel policy (notable moment)
• 25:14 – Jeremy Scahill on Israeli assassination in Qatar
• 28:37 – Scahill explains the Trump “surrender” ceasefire proposal
• 35:04 – Why Hamas will not (and cannot) accept “total disarmament”
• 38:48 – Why the Gulf States will remain passive on Israeli impunity
• 41:59 – Gen Z polling and partisan/gender divides
• 44:18 – Sagar’s take on culture and economy shaping Gen Z values
• 46:57 – Krystal’s counterpoint on poll interpretation
• 54:06 – Harry Enten on Trump’s polling collapse among key groups
• 56:02 – Sagar on volatility of American electoral politics

Summary

This episode of Breaking Points delivers a layered exploration of current fault lines in U.S. politics, foreign policy, and culture. From the left’s rising star in New York City and the limitations of centrist/technocratic “abundance” reforms, through the tumultuous politics of the Middle East and America’s generational political shifts, Krystal and Sagar—with guests—offer a bracing, honest, and perspective-rich conversation for anyone seeking to understand where things stand, and where they may be headed next.