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Asma Khalid
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Asma Khalid
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Asma Khalid
So we got a bunch of political topics to dig into and our friend Dave Weigel from Semaphore joins us now. We've got some new Zoron polling and you were just at two very interesting conferences. So great to see you, Dave.
Dave Weigel
Yes, good to be out of the conferences, I'm sure.
Asma Khalid
I'm sure. Let's go and put this polling, New York Times polling on Zoron up on the screen because this is pretty interesting. So this is the, you know, the four way race which looks, you can tell me if this is but it looks like this is going to be the field. Zoran with a commanding lead, 46%, Cuomo 24. Curtis Sliwa beating Eric Adams 15 and then 9% for Adams. The Trump administration reportedly was offering Adams the Saudi ambassadorship. He apparently turned it down. Sliwa says he's in the race. Certainly Cuomo says he's in the race. So I think this is what the field is going to be. They did test the head to head, just Zorin versus Cuomo and Zoran still won, but it was a much, it was like by four points or something like that. Also interesting if we put this next one up on the screen. This was kind of fascinating. So they dug into these different policy areas to see how New Yorkers felt about these various candidates. And Zoron came out on top in everything. So the one where he was closest was on crime where he just edged out Cuomo. I'm sure it's like a statistical tie there, but commanding lead on affordability, commanding lead on housing, pretty solid lead on taxes and spending. And his largest lead actually is on the Israeli Palestinian conflict worth 43% say they think he would do the best job on that issue. Of course not that central to the New York City mayor's race. But in any case his opponents tried to make it central to it. Cuomo is second at 16% or actually really second is don't know or did not say at 21%. So Dave, what do you make of these numbers? What sort of jumped out at you as significant both in the head to head and then also with the issues.
Dave Weigel
Well, Zoran's personal popularity too. That's another piece of data in this poll. He is the only candidate who most voters say they like. It's I think +13. Everyone else is underwater. So everyone else is trying to do the classic multi candidate field thing of dragging him below the water, but dragging themselves below the water, dragging each other below the water too. No one's getting the advantage. Cuomo tried after this is about a month, three weeks ago, Tromo tried after reporting on the housing plans to say that Zoran was unfairly in a rent stabilized apartment. He'd sometimes say rent control, which is different. And if Andrew Cuomo is elected, there's going to be a reckoning with people with rent stabilized apartments. That's the first poll since then that didn't work at all. That just wasn't affordability argument, that was a revenge argument and people saw through it. Yes. And it is remarkable that knowing with COVID several months now, this is the discourse of the entire Democratic Party several months to see that Zoron captured the affordability message. Are they competing on that? No, they're very distracted by other issues. And even on the crime issue, Zorin's been saying for I'm not trying to raise campaign brochure for him, but since he got in the race, he renounced to fund the police. His answers on policing are not I'm going to stop them from arresting anybody. Nobody can really make that stick cuz they're still operating like voters think he has the mindset of 2020 he no longer does. I mean you can't polygraph him, but he no longer does.
Asma Khalid
I mean also crime has come down in New York City. So it's also potentially not an issue, not as much of an issue as it was when Eric Adams was getting elected, for example. It was interesting to me too to see there that Adams does quite poorly on the issue of crime, even though, you know, he was police officer, he ran on that. That was sort of like his bread and butter. And crime has actually come down under his tenure and yet Zorin has much higher approval day there. The other one that is just fascinating to me is the Israeli Palestinian conflict number. And that was an issue. Zorin was not trying to make that central to his campaign. But Cuomo and others in the Democratic primary were really trying to tag him with this label of oh, he's an anti Semite and he just hates Jewish people and he hates Israel. Won't even travel to commit to traveling to Israel. He won't say that Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state. And I think it's pretty clear not only did that argument fail, but it actually redounded to his benefit. Ultimately, for people who care about that issue, he is receiving the lion's share of the vote. And it also made them look like they were focused on these other superfluous issues while he was focused on affordability and issues that were core to New Yorkers.
Dave Weigel
Yeah. And you said there's an intensity gap. So the voters who care most about this are not the Upper east side. The voters that everyone thought they were going after were a little bit outdated. Other Democrats had a view of the electorate that was very frozen in the 80s in views of how Jewish voters think of Israel. And they did not factor in two years of the demolition of Israel's image, even with Jewish Americans, especially in New York. And there's a dismissal you find in the pro Israel political community of younger groups that are on campus, active or in public active. The BDS movement, the Jewish members of that movement. But there are a lot of them in New York. And so Zorin has that entire vote. The pro Israel vote is divided between other candidates. But you're right. This. This was not the issue of the race. The other candidates thought they would get that intensity gap. They would get most Jewish voters. That would be a block that would help Cuomo over the line. There are communities where that happen for Cuomo, less so for Adams. Adams is literally running on the Stop anti Semitism ballot line to one of the ballot lies he got.
Asma Khalid
Yeah.
Dave Weigel
They overrated how much of an issue this was. It does sound like something they hear a lot from high powered. From donors, from high powered Democrats, from people who are worried in the Hamptons. A real thing that the Times is writing about. And that has not been the main intensity. Are there gonna be voters who get a Mayor Zoran and are disappointed that he's feuding with Netanyahu or something? Possibly. It's not their top issue. For everyone who does want a major figure in the Democratic Party in their city to support an arms embargo, support changing Israel so that it's a secular state, as Zoran does. It's the most exciting candidate of their lifetime. So of course they're intense about him.
Asma Khalid
Yeah. And I'm sure you saw Kirsten Gillibrand saying he was at like a donor event, that 9 of 10 Democrats support Israel. And it's like, you need to take a look at liter. Any poll to adjust your views of where this issue is. That's a whole other sidetrack. We'll push that one to the side for now because I want to get to your coverage of. We'll talk about the Abundance Conference to begin with and put C1 up on the screen here. So what were some of the things that they were grappling with? And I Know, you were telling me before we started that actually Zorin was very sort of present at this conference in terms of a subject fees and how to deal with him, because during the primary, he really kind of extended an olive branch. He embraces a lot of abundance style policies and sort of talk the talk, but they certainly don't see him as being one of them.
Dave Weigel
No. Yeah. When I talked to Zoran before the primary, that was one thing he emphasized his vision and the whole campaign's vision is have a socialist mayor of New York who makes the rest of the country say, oh, this could work for me in every respect. And that starts with housing and affordability. So at the conference, some specific examples where Raihan Salaam, the president of the Manhattan Institute, and there's an overlap with abundance, but that's not the face of their movement. Somebody let in their room, he said, look, my family are Bangladeshi immigrants. When Zoran says, afford to live, afford to dream, that's thrilling to us. That's the story that a lot of our parents had where they could buy a house and the kids could live in one of the extra rooms. Their kids can't afford a house. That was motivating for us. And he captured it. Nobody else did. There was a session on polling and data and it uncovered that, yes, affordability is the most powerful message in politics, the top priority for voters, I should say. And there was a slide showing Zoron and that slogan on one half of the slide. The other half was Trump at McDonald's saying that there are ways to be populist and capture this affordability message. And those guys are pretty good at it. And we in the abundance movement do not have the branding, the power. We have reach. And we have a lot of meetings and a lot of groups that are signing up on our YIMBY agenda, but that we've not figured out a populist way to sell this the way Zoron has, or to a lesser extent, Donald Trump has.
Asma Khalid
Can you talk a little bit more about the like, where did this abundance movement come from? Because I think for a lot of people the perception was, you know, Derek Thompson, Ezra Klein write this book. And then suddenly we've got abundance conferences and we've got abundance think tanks and this whole thing like, where did this come from?
Dave Weigel
Yeah, they are key players in this. Thompson and Kleim are writing about this in 2022, 2023. At the same time, there is a movement of liberals in cities who wanted to build more. And this came from frustration, really accelerating the biden years. Biden is president. Money is being shoveled out to states. But you are a legislator in California or in New York or even in Colorado and it's taking forever for you to build something. Cause there's a joke, there's a line. They like to say that there's no Democratic or Republican way to build a pothole. Well, there is a Democratic way to fill a pothole. I should say it is to have a six month equity study and make sure that the pothole filling company is minority owned, et cetera. So they were grappling, okay. Our Democratic Party has no trade off agenda at all. It just says everything to everybody. It takes forever to build Biden presidency ends with so much money being clawed back by Trump because they didn't spend it. So they're trying to solve that national problem. But these two ideas sort of come together with a lot of help from donors. There are Silicon Valley donors, not just there, but some of the people like John Arnold, starts in Enron, but now he's a bigger libertarian liberal philanthropist. And there are a lot of people say, well, we don't want the left to take over the Democratic Party. We do like this idea where there are Democrats who want to build things and spend things and deregulate. This is actually happening in some states. California. Scott Wiener, who's in that slide in that picture, very progressive state senator, wants to replace Pelosi when she retires, has a pretty good chance. And he's one of the leaders to scale back the environmental law that was passed in the 1970s. Because every California has experience with homeowners associations or energy companies, or just an angry boomer somewhere saying, no, you can't build that six unit apartment building on this vacant lot because it'll block the view from my bungalow. So it's a very local movement. Ezra, who's from California, is big into this. And columnists and reporters talk to politicians, talk to donors. It's not fully organic, but it was just a couple of different ideas about the Democratic Party's problems being, I'd say elucidated the most, I guess, book selling way by these two guys. And that's now the brand of the movement. But they didn't fully start it well.
Asma Khalid
And talk a little bit more about who's in the movement because you have liberals like Ezra and Derek and then you have these more libertarians. I mean at its core, like this is an oversimplification, but a lot of it is just kind of like deregulation, you know, which obviously libertarians have Long loved. So are there tensions in the movement between these various factions of how to proceed?
Dave Weigel
There are some. So in the conference, you can go to their website. The donors include Stand Together, which is the Koch organization, Pacific Legal foundation, which is a libertarian legal group. They do have some differences. One of them I drew a little bit in the article is that where does immigration fit into this? Because there are progressives and libertarians who are very open minded about immigration. Get as many people if you need asylum, you can move to my city. If you have high skills, even better. We need to streamline the system. But there is a political worry from the more democratic, electability focused abundance people that if Democrats are seen as the party that has no restrictions on immigration, then the homeowner who says, I want to vote for the party that's going to make it easier to fund to build a home, to buy a home, is going to say, well, that party's going to give everything away to these new arrivals. I'm going to vote for the Republicans who say that they're going to do mass breed deportation and I can have cheaper housing, cheaper goods for that reason. So that was one conflict. It was actually between the libertarians and the more progressives on one side and the more electorally minded liberals on another side. There are different views of what abundance means. Does it mean those restrictions to make it necessary? Does it mean just a deregulation where there are few trade offs? Part of the conference was about debating this. And I was at natcon, the National Conservative Conference too. They framed themselves against that. They said, well, we're having our fights. But on the other side is the Trump administration that believes in scarcity, that believes in deportation. We're not doing that. We're saying that we can. The population of the country could grow steadily. We could have more, we could have big families. And they don't have an answer for them. They want them to live on the AI generated farm with the trad wife. We want them to live in a single stair unit and maybe buy a bigger house when they're older. Because we freed up the housing market, we've made it legal to build things. So it's a very optimistic movement, but also very aware of all these political cross currents that make it hard to win.
Asma Khalid
Let's talk a little bit about that. National conservatism, I don't know what it's called. Okay, let's put this up on the screen. This is C2, guys. And you say nationalists consolidate the US right with one small crack. And I'm Sure. It was interesting to go back to, back to these two conferences. Cuz with the abundance people, you got a group of people who are like totally out of power in terms of the federal conversation with the nationalists. They've got their guy in the White House and they've got Stephen Miller and they've got a whole administration. And they had time in the off season to put together what their policy plan was. They're steamrolling through the Supreme Court. Zagar and I covered that earlier. So how are they feeling about how all of this is going?
Dave Weigel
They're feeling great. You conveyed it. They feel that Donald Trump is not gonna have a problem leading this movement for another three years, doesn't have a serious threat to power. The left is in disarray, which I guess we just dealt with. And then the old right, they're saying conservative Inc is the popular term for it, are discredited, but they're gonna try to take the party back over once Trump is gone. And there are Bannons who say maybe he'll never be gone. But most of the movement thing. Yeah. In 2028, when it's a Rubio Vance primary. The crack that was referring to the headline is younger conservatives who are aligned with this, who agree with the movement's goals, who agree with deportations. There is a strain of America first foreign policy thinking that includes let's cut off all funding to Israel and even let's not support the United States backing up Israel because They need our B2 bombers to finish something their army couldn't or their air force couldn't do. So that was the crack. And so Yoram Hazoni, the leader of the Conference of Edmund Burke foundation, et cetera, he uses his speech to say we're winning. However, I was really in denial about how many young people would have a problem with Israel and how many of our commentators. He didn't use the names, but it sounded like he meant Tucker Carlson. How many people are getting these new audiences and are critical of Israel? This point was never criticized Israel. It was, hi, I thought after the Iran bombing happened and World War 3 didn't happen, that would stop. And it didn't. It looks like there's something very elemental here where people hear nationalism and they think, not just let's have the strongest military in the world, but let's not be bailing out Ukraine or Israel or anyone else viewing them the way that we view France. Nobody's saying they need our help right now. This other nuclear power in Europe needs our help and needs our military Aid. So that was a fairly hot debate. There was a debate where leaders of the Heritage Foundation, Yoram, et cetera, were listening as the American conservative and Max Abrams, actually, Kurt Mills, American Conservative, and Max Abrams, a scholar at Northeastern, were debating this. Abrams saying, you guys are discredited and there is an American role in defending Israel. And Mills saying, no, this is going to ruin the entire movement and we're anti interventionists and this doesn't fit in. So the final thing I'll say about that is national conservatism. It is rooted in a lot of politics in Israel, in Europe, that are not necessarily the same politics we have here. Europe has a different experience with mass immigration than we do. It has longer traditions of ethnic homogeneity in their countries that are changing.
Asma Khalid
They have more of a sort of natural blood and soil inclination than we do.
Dave Weigel
And in America, the country of Manifest Destiny and expanding into the frontiers and talking about buying Greenland. Does that fit? There was some tension there, but the main tension was, well, forgetting about whether we have more in common with Israel as a project, why are we funding any war there whatsoever? Why are we on the hook? And isn't it going to discredit this one point Mills made? Young people are learning that all our movement does is cut taxes and give money into foreign wars. That he was saying, this could all fall apart the way the neoconservative fell apart if we don't fix this.
Asma Khalid
Yeah, well, there's a lot of parallels there. I mean, if you just describe the agenda that way, that is the Bush administration agenda. Let me just play this one clip of Kurt Mills, because I thought I was interested. He's American Conserv Executive Director. Also talking about the hypocrisy around speech issues. Remember, J.D. vance went to Europe and like, lectured them about free speech. We continue to hear these lectures about European speech policies. And yet, of course, there's been a major attack on free speech here, especially when it comes to Israel, Palestine. This is C3, guys. Let's go ahead and play this on the home front.
Jeremy Scahill
This dynamic is dementing. One could be forgiven for believing the only people this administration is reliably deporting are supporters of the Palestinian cause after riding back into power on the appeal of free speech enshrined in the First Amendment of this country's Constitution. If conserving that isn't conservatism, I don't know what is. This administration has used its influence to attempt and curb and intimidate speech on Middle east issues, particularly the State Department. After assembling and potentially generationally realigning cohort of voters disgusted with woke pieties and the suffocation of dialogue with incessant accusations of racism, Republicans of all too eagerly embraced holding the whip themselves, accusing countless unbigoted critics as anti Semites instead of engaging on the issue.
Asma Khalid
So, Dave, how is this message received in the room?
Dave Weigel
In that room? Very well. This is a room. Again, a lot of people packed this room. Not everything in the conference was this crowded. There are people standing along the walls and younger. You could kind of tell if you were doing a quick mitochondrial survey of the room. Younger people in the room were laughing a lot more at his lines.
Asma Khalid
The sort of thing RFK Jr would do that might accomplish.
Dave Weigel
Very popular at this conference. But even if they agreed with Abrams, this idea that we are giving up our sovereignty, if we're saying that we always have Israel's back, even if they're pursuing war aims that are not defensive, this is, I think, where a lot of the space is opened up for not just people like Mills, but critics of Israel in the United States. Among the Democrats is not, we want Israel to go away. We want it to be replaced. But do they really need this? It feels like they're safe. And Netanyahu's talked about this, the Munich effect, where people don't see Israel as under assault. Oh, that's the country where if you commit any crime against it, they're gonna hunt you to the end of the earth and then bomb you. Why do they need our money? But what he was saying, that it was worrying to some people in that room. And I talked to some more pro Israel attendees who they organize on college campuses, and 95% of what they're saying lands. And then someone in the crowd says, I don't want to die for Israel, or why should I be dying for Israel? That's what Mills is talking about, is that those people who came into the coalition, the younger men who are interested in a lot of what Trump is doing, might get off on that. And certainly some of the influential Rogan types were not attitudinally conservative. That has been a breaking point for them, is, wait a second, we're not allowed to criticize this country. Why did this guy get deported? What he's talking about, he's trying to say, lop that off, because you have the potential to completely realign the country. NATOs disagree and say, no, you can realign the country while this is happening. But they haven't figured. No one has figured out the answer on this question. To me, that's a pretty healthy movement. This is unlike Democrats who bracket the conversation, don't wanna talk about Israel at all in the 2024 election, and are now splintered and fighting over it. This, I think was happening too, was we have the space and the power to say let's air this out and figure this out before we start losing elections over it, or we start going on campuses and getting yelled at because of our positions.
Asma Khalid
Yeah, interesting. And then contrast that with Schumer, Jeffries, et cetera, who won't even endorse Zoran. I mean, they won't say exactly why, but certainly Israel is a part of that calculus there why they find it so abhorrent to endorse the guy who won the Democratic nomination by 12 points. Dave, great to have you. Thank you so much as always for your insights.
Dave Weigel
You thank thank you.
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Asma Khalid
America is changing and so is the world. But what's happening in America isn't just.
Dave Weigel
A cause of global upheaval.
Asma Khalid
It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere. I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.
Dave Weigel
Tristan Redman in London and this is the Global Story.
WashablesOfSofas Advertiser
Every weekday we'll bring you a story.
Asma Khalid
From this intersection where the world and America meet.
Dave Weigel
Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Asma Khalid
We'Ve got a number of significant developments we are tracking with regard to Israel and Gaza. And we are joined this morning, fortunately, by Jeremy Scahill, of course, co founder of Dropsite News, alongside our own Ryan Grimm. Great to see you, Jeremy.
Sagar Kashyap
Good to see you, man.
Jeremy Scahill
Good to be with you guys.
Asma Khalid
I wanted to start with these very nascent reports we're getting of some type of an explosion in Doha. There is some speculation it could have been at the Hamas offices there. So, Jeremy, what can we say about the possibility of what's going on here?
Jeremy Scahill
Well, without speculating on the particulars of it, because at this point, we don't know anything factually other than there's reports of an explosion. Israel has made clear for decades that it's willing to assassinate Palestinian political figures, resistance leaders, et cetera. But in recent weeks, the chief of staff of the Israeli army said quite explicitly that if Hamas does not surrender, it's not only going to obliterate and annihilate all of Gaza, but that it is going to target for assassination Hamas leaders abroad. Now, of course, most of the Hamas figures that are trying to negotiate these ceasefire deals and are essentially running the organization politically are outside of Gaza. And, you know, many of them are in Doha, in Qatar. And of course, Israel last summer assassinated the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in a strike in Tehran, Iran. It also assassinated recently, or it's also assassinated much of the on the ground leadership of the Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, as well as the political leader in Gaza of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar. So Israel has a long history of assassinating Palestinian political figures. In fact, many years ago, there was an incredible story that happened where Khaled Mashal, one of the leaders of Hamas, was in Jordan, in the Middle east, and Israeli Mossad agents poisoned him. And it caused a huge diplomatic uproar between Jordan and Israel. And essentially a Mossad agent had to fly on a plane with the antidote for this poison to resuscitate Khaled Mashal. So, you know, it's something out of a movie, but that actually happened. So we should be watching this very carefully because Donald Trump is, you know, put forward this vague ceasefire proposal that we're going to talk about. And it seems like anytime there's the possibility of some form of negotiation, the Israelis not only Escalate on the ground in Gaza, but then increase their threats like we're seeing now, to potentially assassinate external leadership of Hamas.
Dave Weigel
Right.
Sagar Kashyap
I mean, Jeremy, we were talking a bit before the break, but it's very important to note, you know, there are hundreds of thousands of Americans present in Doha, not to mention all of the troops that are there. And it is of course been a way station for a lot the diplomatic talks between the United States, between the world, Hamas and Israel. And so of course, it would be sending a message just as previous Israeli assassinations like in Tehran and elsewhere did. We did want originally to talk to you about this ceasefire proposal. We can go ahead and put it up here on the screen just so you can give us some insight. It's 100 word ceasefire proposal from Trump to Hamas. Can you break it down for us the level of seriousness and what exactly it means?
Jeremy Scahill
Well, I think, I think first it's important to look at the broader context here. Right now, Israel is in the midst of a sort of Final Solution operation in Gaza City where they're just systematically targeting these massive high rise buildings where some of them have 100 or more apartments in them. And Netanyahu said last night that all of the residents, we're talking about a million people of Gaza City need to leave immediately or they're going to consider them Hamas combatants. So that's the backdrop of what's happening right now is this intensification by Israel. Hamas 3 weeks ago on August 18, actually accepted what Qatari mediators said was 98% of the terms of what was called the Witkoff framework. This was the deal that's being negotiated for months. That would have been a 60 day ceasefire where half of the Israeli living captives and half of the deceased captives would have been released in exchange for a large number of Palestinians held by Israel. And Hamas made massive concessions and agreed to this framework and then Israel never responded to it. And what happened is that the Trump administration and the Israeli government said, oh no, we don't want that deal anymore. We want now an all in deal where Hamas immediately releases all Israeli captives, living and dead. And so what we obtained was a 100 word summary of what Donald Trump has communicated to Hamas. And what it basically says is that within 48 hours of signing an agreement, Hamas would need to release every single Israeli that it's holding captive and that a certain number of Palestinians, it doesn't specify how many, some of whom are serving life sentences, others who were snatched from Gaza after October 7th would be released. It says that there would be a 60 day ceasefire, and that Donald Trump would take responsibility for ensuring that the ceasefire held while negotiations to formally end the war took place. What it also says is that there would need to be a new government installed in Gaza in order to even discuss Israeli troop withdrawals. It does say that there will be aid allowed into Gaza, but it doesn't specify how much aid, who would distribute the aid. So, you know, talking privately to officials from Hamas, they have compared this essentially to a surrender document. They suspect that it was written by Israel. The Arabic where the document was presented in Arabic was clumsy Arabic, strange word choices. So Hamas is speculating that it was written by Israel, and we know that that has happened in the past with US Proposals. But then Amir Sagal, one of the top propagandists for Netanyahu on Israeli public television, he himself came out and said that this is an Israeli proposal wrapped in fancy American cellophane. And he, you know, so he said the quiet part out loud. So what I think we're seeing here is, you know, Trump, I think, genuinely wants to wrap this up, so to speak, but he wants to do it on Israel's terms. So essentially what they're doing is saying, listen, accept this surrender order from Israel and I'll see if I can do something about maybe ending the genocide. And there's no guarantees that Israel wouldn't just get its captives back and then continue with the war of annihilation. So I think it's extremely unlikely, if not flat out impossible, that Hamas would.
Sagar Kashyap
Agree to such a. Jeremy, while you were talking? Yeah, go ahead.
Asma Khalid
We have an update from Barack Ravid tweeted from senior Israeli officials, quote, the explosion in Doha is an assassination operation against senior Hamas officials. So would appear to be confirmation of what you and others suspected was going on there.
Jeremy Scahill
Yeah, and again, I mean, there is a very long history of Israel assassinating Palestinian political figures, not just within the borders of historic Palestine, but externally. And again, Israel openly has said in recent days that if Hamas doesn't surrender and demilitarize and give up its arms and release the Israeli captives, that it was going to begin targeting the external leadership of Hamas. And remember, this presumably would mean that they are also attempting to assassinate the very people who would be negotiating a ceasefire. And Donald Trump just days ago submitted what he said is a new proposal for a ceasefire. So doing that and then turning around and assassinating the negotiators while they're deliberating a proposal from the President of the United States sends a message that the US Is backing Israel in just constantly Choosing to murder Palestinians instead of using diplomatic roads when the Palestinians have said repeatedly they're open to an agreement either in phases, to release half the Israeli captives within 60 days and the other half once a ceasefire is negotiated or to do an all for all deal. And again, Hamas made major concessions. And I think it's worth pointing out, among the concessions they made was allowing the Gaza Humanitarian foundation to continue operating despite the fact that upwards of 2,000 Palestinians have been killed seeking aid since May. When they started, they backed off of their demand that there be a clear timeline for withdrawal of Israeli forces from the strategic Philadelphia corridor. They reduced the number of Palestinians that they were demanding be freed in return for Israeli captives. And they also agreed to allow an Israeli enforced buffer zone to encircle the entirety of the Gaza Strip at some points piercing 1,500 meters inside of Gaza. And Israel and the United States never formally responded to that offer. So, you know, if this is true, then what they're doing, beyond the fact that they're conducting assassinations on Qatari soil, which also houses US centcom, which also is the lead mediator in these talks, they are killing the very people that Donald Trump just sent a offer to to try to reach a ceasefire deal.
Sagar Kashyap
Wow, Jeremy, this may be a dumb question, but it's pretty clear that Hamas, or, sorry, that Israel and the US Are just seeking unconditional surrender. The terms that you just laid out effectively, I mean, would not only lead to a quote, unquote, new government, but is really continued occupation control of this so called buffer zone. What exactly does Hamas see as the difference between that already, you know, pretty extraordinary concessions, considering what they started out with, as opposed to unconditional surrender. Like, why don't they just take the unconditional surrender if they're effectively signing their own demise and their own control anyways?
Jeremy Scahill
Well, two things. One is, and Hamas leaders have said this to me privately, they don't want to be in control of Gaza anymore. You know, this is an albatross around the neck of Hamas and it has been for many, many years. So, you know, they've said quite clearly they're willing to relinquish control. The issue, though, is that it's. While we say Hamas, it's not just Hamas, there are many Palestinian political groups, including those opposed to Hamas or that are not allied with Hamas, including those that have no armed factions, but are political parties that stand for elections, that also have been part of these negotiations. And what they all have said is that our right to bear arms in opposition to an Illegal occupation by a colonial apartheid state is a legitimate right. And so while Hamas could say, okay, we stepped down from power, we're not going to exist anymore in the, in this format, they're not going to sign a document that says we agree to demilitarize the Gaza Strip. In fact, they've said we don't have the right to do that. That, that is a question for the Palestinian people. And consistently in public opinion polls, Palestinians support the right to armed resistance. I think at the end of the day, the direct answer to your question is that they view that not as a surrender of Hamas as a political entity or a movement, but that it would be them taking the outrageous action of surrendering the Palestinian cause of liberation. And whatever anyone thinks of Hamas, I think that's a true statement. Given that Hamas is used as kind of the catch all to describe Palestinian armed resistance right now, the fact is that the struggle, the armed struggle far predates Hamas. And if Hamas surrenders itself and dismantles and no longer exists, another group of Palestinians are going to rise up under the same type of banner with the same aim to repel Israel's occupation and liberate Palestine by any means necessary, including armed force. So, so, you know, you have to look at this not in the context of October 7th, but in the context of 76 years of history. And I think that genuinely is how the Hamas negotiators view this.
Asma Khalid
Jeremy, last question I have for you is, do you find it plausible that Israel could have gone forward with this assassination operation without at least in some way having been greenlit by the U.S.
Jeremy Scahill
You know, there were some reports that Donald Trump had relayed to Hamas that that was an option on the table. When I spoke to Hamas leaders over the past last several days, none of them said that that was true. They didn't exactly say that it was false, but they said, not that I know of, not according to my information. It would surprise me if there wasn't some form of consultation with Donald Trump. And look, the guy, the guy just greenlit this strike on the boat off of Venezuela. There's still questions about who the people were that they killed. He greenlit an assassination of Qasem Soleimani in his first term, bombing him in a third country in Baghdad, Iraq. So, you know, do I know that Donald Trump was aware of this? No. Do I suspect it? Yes.
Sagar Kashyap
I mean, Jeremy, as you laid out, centcom, is there. Nothing's flying in the airspace over there without us. You know, at least my own personal speculation. And just in terms of Pure deconfliction. Right. For making sure that, you know, U.S. assets don't get confused. This is still a crisis. Extraordinary message. That's actually my last question. How is the Gulf going to handle this? So if you are the uae, if you're Saudi Arabia, and I know they have complicated relations themselves with Qatar obviously, but I mean, for them the answer has to be you can house US troops, you can buy hundreds of billions of dollars in US arms and you still may see basically, you know, explosions and attacks by a US ally on your soil. I mean, doesn't it undermine a lot of their own security doctrine?
Jeremy Scahill
I mean, first of all, you know, many Palestinians see the United Arab Emirates as basically now a self declared suburb of Israel. You know, it was the lead figure in the Abraham Accords, but also is, you know, constantly taking Israel's side. But if you look at Qatar, this is a, you know, a different equation. I mean, you mentioned Centcom being there, but you know, Trump also has these huge business deals going on, not just, you know, officially in his capacity as president and getting his airplane and all those things, but also his family businesses. So there's, you know, there's deep ties there. The cold hard fact at the end of the day is that what the US and Israel have shown is that Israel can do whatever it wants in that region and not a single Arab country, particularly those in the, in the Gulf, are going to do a thing about it. So, you know, Israel doesn't need these normalization agreements anymore. Israel has shown that it can do whatever it wants. It can strike wherever it wants. And not a single one of these decrepit regimes are going to do a thing about it. And that's the cold fact at the end of the day.
Sagar Kashyap
Yeah, you're right.
Asma Khalid
I think that's well said.
Sagar Kashyap
Shocking.
Asma Khalid
Jeremy, thank you so much. Great to have your insights as always.
Jeremy Scahill
Thank you guys.
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Asma Khalid
America is changing and so is the world. But what's happening in America isn't just.
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A cause of global upheaval.
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It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere. I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.
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Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global Story.
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Every weekday we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.
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Asma Khalid
So some very interesting polling results that we wanted to dig into about Gen Z and the gender divide, the partisan divide in that particular generation. This comes courtesy of NBC News as tweeted out by Steve Kornack, who put this first one up on the screen. So the question is, how do you define success? What is your personal definition of success? Which things here on this list are most important? That personal definition of success. So for Gen Z Men who voted for Trump, number one is having children. For Gen Z Women who voted for Harris, the very bottom of the list is having children. Similarly, being married comes in quite high. For Gen Z Men who voted for Trump, 29% say that's important to their personal definition of success. Gen Z Women being married is at the bottom with children at just 6%. Let me go through a few more of these because it's interesting. So just keep this up on the screen. So for both fulfilling job and career, pretty close to the top. Like pretty important for Gen Z Men, financial independence, having money to do things you want, owning your own home, also pretty significant there. And being grounded spiritually, making family, community proud. Lower on the list for Gen Z Men is having emotional stability. Interesting. Able to retire early and using talents and resources to help others. Those ones were more important in particular the using talents and resources to help others and having emotional stability. For Gen Z Women who voted for Harris, we can go to the next one as well, which shows the women who voted for Trump also for them, having children is not at the top of the list, it's kind of in the middle and being married is towards the bottom. So again, even among those who voted for Trump, you see different views between men and women on what their personal definition of success. And for men who vote for Harris, their list looks a bit more like the women who voted for Harris with being married and having children more towards the bottom of the list. So there's a lot that you could pull out of the differences here. But Sagar, what was kind of your top line takeaway of what the significance is here?
Sagar Kashyap
Congratulations to Sheryl Sandberg. Total lean in victory. You won. Neoliberalism has officially won and I think that the results are disastrous. And look, people can do what they want to do. That's the point of the country. I think though, this really is downstream to me of a lot of policy and also of culture and the culture over the last 15 years, particularly my generation. And so, you know, I guess Gen Z as well, who've been really inculcated in this even more so than people like me has been, if you work hard, you can get what you want and you can do whatever you want to do. And this is really driven by influencer culture as well. You know, there's a, there's even a term for it like little treat culture where people, because the big things in life are so unaffordable, they're constantly chasing little luxuries like nice bags or a watch or any of this other stuff. And there's nothing wrong with any of that as long as you have your bigger bases covered. But the bigger bases are so unattainable that they don't even look or desire or even consider as important any of those things. And so they really focus a lot of their stuff on hyper consumerism, Travel, Instagram, iFication, etc. And so, yeah, I mean, without even making it like a political point, because I do think it's important to say, you know, even Gen Z women who voted for Trump having children is down there at the bottom. Being married is only like 20%, number one is still financial independence and fulfilling job, career. All I can think is, yeah, it's just like total neolib economic utility victory. And I don't think it's how it should be. You know, I don't again, I'm not going to tell people how to live. There's a lot of data, basically it says if you get married and have children, you're going to be happier, you're going to live longer. You, as an economic and family unit, are actually going to be more successful, you're going to make more money, you're going to have a lot more fulfill throughout your life generally, that's what all of the data tells us. But the kind of hyper individualism that we have chased with consumerism as a society has driven us here. I blame culture, but I really blame the economy as well, because these are the things that are rewarded, are debt structures. And we're turning into Japan. We're turning into Japan where everyone is an individual worker. You know, having children or being married is just very low on the totem pole. A lot of women there, because of the hyper patriarchal society, have no desire to be in a relationship because if they are, they'll just be told to, like, stay at home. So they just don't get married, they don't want to have children. They view it much more as a burden. And that's how you end up a replacement rate of 1.2% and stagnant growth, even though you're one of the greatest civilizations in the history of the world. So it's really sad to me, actually, but there's a lot of people to blame for it. I wish it were to turn around.
Asma Khalid
I want to temper your sadness a bit because I will say the way this is phrased, like, is this important to your personal definition of success? Yes. Right. Obviously, I'm a mom, three kids, they're the most important thing in my life. If you were to ask me if, like, just the act of having kids is my definition of quote, unquote, success, I'd say no. Right. Having kids that are, you know, having my kids, like, happy and thrive and doing well in the world, pursuing the things that I consider core to my personal definition of success. That's not a choice on this list, though. Like, anyone can get knocked up. It's not like, congratulations, you're so successful if you do. And so to me, it's actually kind of weird to put having kids as your personal definition of success, like something you have to accomplish. Now, maybe it's. I don't know, maybe the lens from a male perspective is a little different, because having kids from a male perspective kind of entails like, okay, then I've got the marriage, I've got the financial stability to be able to pull this off, et cetera. So I sort of feel like just that gender distinction is coming through here too, in the way that this is phrased. So I'd say that, I mean, listen, we've covered before. There's certainly a big political divide in the values and views of Gen Z men versus women and comes through even more when you talk about Gen Z men who voted for Trump vs. Gen Z women who voted for Harris. But, but I also feel like some of that may be a bit overstated because we're seeing, if you look across the generation, you see a lot of commonalities in values, for example, with regard to how they view Israel. You see a lot of commonalities with regard to just kind of broad frustration discussed with the political system overall. You've seen there was a lot of triumphalism from the Trump world and from the right about the number of Gen Z men who voted for Trump. Those are some of the groups that have shifted the most dramatically away from him and are where his approval rating has fallen the most dramatically off a cliff. So I feel like a lot of this honestly is still kind of shaking out with this generation as they're more searching for anything that is anyone who's gonna deliver for them, anything that's gonna make sense, anything that's gonna shake up a status quo that is truly, truly stacked against them in a lot of ways.
Sagar Kashyap
That's a great point. And look, a lot of this could be young bias too. I mean, if I'm being honest, when I was 22, when you asked me what my definition of success was, it definitely would not be children.
Asma Khalid
Wouldn't have kids.
Sagar Kashyap
I would be totally transparent. It took a while to get there, so that's definitely part of it. I think broadly, I still just see the forces of the economy behind all of this, because it's like you said, if the ultimate, highest and best consideration of success is having children, the, the mission that you, the vision that you have in your, in your world with that is like owning a home and, and all having a stable job and like everything that confers kind of with that, which is probably why that is out there. And it also fits with what I know a lot of these guys are watching, you know, on social media and the hustle culture, you know, Alex Hormozi and, and, and all of this, which I don't even think there's necessarily anything bad with all of that. It's just a lot of the downstream stuff that is supposed to support you does not exist. And so that's what I spend a lot of my time really worrying about. I do actually think this is more of an interesting question for Millennials. Because once you're my age and in your 30s, these become very urgent questions, actually, about children, about getting married, and much more. I would be curious to see this poll for millennial men who voted for Trump versus millennial women and others. Because, you know, millennial women, at this point, you're like 29 to 35. Like, you're well established into your career. It's like, is it worth it? Did it get what you want? You want, like, you can theoretically say you could achieve a total amount of Success when you're 20, 20. When I'm 22, if you'd asked me where I am right now, I'd be like, oh, my God, I made it. Like, it's, it's done. You know, it's like everything you could have possibly envisioned and wanted to. Wanted. Is that the most important thing in your life? No, obviously I'm married now. I have a child. Right. And so your priorities kind of become much more in view. So I would be curious to see how this shakes out in a millennial view.
Asma Khalid
Yeah, but we have also, now that.
Sagar Kashyap
I'm talking to you, I don't know if pulling a 22 year old is the right way. They're literally, their brains aren't even developed as a man.
Asma Khalid
True. It's an interesting snapshot, though. I mean, I also would say, like the language here, it says, fulfilling job or career. We're very lucky because we have that right. And I think, I think the reality is in the system we live in, you do spend most of your life at your job. So for people to say that is important in terms of my view of success, I don't think that's so crazy because that is the structure of society that kind of dovetails with Your point of. This is downstream of policy and the economic structure that we have another piece. And this is maybe a little bit more tangential, but it's been something I'm thinking about with regard to women who not only have having children at the bottom of the list, also have being married at the bottom of the list. You have a whole ecosystem of online influencers set up to tell you basically to treat women poorly and women suck and don't be their friends and whatever. So there's some of that messaging coming from men that's like, okay, fine, if you hate me, I don't need you. There's also an entire tech economy that is developing these AI chatbots to convince everyone that they don't need anyone, that you don't need human relationships. You can be best friends with ChatGPT, or you can be best friends with Grok, or you can be best friends with Meta's AI chatbots, where you can invent them and create them and make them whatever you want. And they're never gonna criticize you, they're never gonna hurt your feelings, they're never gonna steal your man. They're just gonna be there to make you happy. And you don't need this messy world of human relations. So I think some of that is going on in the background of all of this as well.
Sagar Kashyap
Absolutely. That's well said. And it is important, you know, at a structural level. If you, I believe if you build it, they will come. So everything is downstream of availability. If the house is not available, if the child, you know, if it's too expensive. I think the average marriage in the US costs like $25,000 right now for a wedding. I'm pretty sure that's right. I could be wrong. I haven't looked at the statistics in quite a long time, but you think about all the associated expectations, et cetera, etc, and you're just like, eh, you know, and if that's gonna be so wildly out of reach, then what is available? It's like, okay, well, getting a job, anyone can get a job, anyone can, you know, hustle or, or do anything. And that becomes more available. And so I believe that like, the structure of what is available also determines the possibility of your imagination. And so that's what I would like to fix.
Asma Khalid
Yeah, more than anything, I think that's true. We do have an interesting Harry Enton thought about Trump and his popularity and where he's losing ground with various groups. This is E4, guys. Let's take a look at this.
Harry Enten
Look at the aggregate polls and look how long Donald Trump's net approval rating has been negative. It has been every day since March 12th in the average of polls. We're talking about 181 days in a row in which Donald Trump has been underwater swimming with the fishes. There is no good data for Donald Trump when looking at the aggregate and looking overall all. He has been negative for a very long period of time. The vast majority of his second presidency. Look at this. These are all the key issues. Donald Trump is underwater on all of them. Trade, obviously, tariffs have been a big thing. At the bottom of your list, -17 points. The economy, which was the reason, the reason he was elected to a second term, to fix the economy. Way underwater at minus 14 points. Foreign policy minus 12. And then I think Mr. John Berman, the key two issues at the top, because these have been Donald Trump's strongest issues, crime and immigration. But get this, he is now underwater on both of these issues, if barely, but he's underwater on crime at minus 2, immigration at minus 3. On all the key issues, he is again swimming with the Fishers. Consistency across the board. Two key groups that were so important to getting Donald Trump a second term, he did so much better than the traditional Republican among those under the age of 30 and Hispanics. Look at this. In February, among those under the age of 30, his net approval rating according to CBS News, plus 2 points. Look at where we are now, negative 30 points. That's a 32 point move in the wrong direction. And Hispanics, he was six points underwater. Look at this, minus 34 points. That's a 28 point move. Since February, no wonder Donald Trump's in trouble. He's steady across the board. And since February, when he was last positive, he's only gotten significantly worse among two very key groups for his election backwards last year.
Asma Khalid
I mean, it shows you voters really are up for grabs. The idea that people are just locked in and that's that for some people, yeah, there's a good percentage of the country for which that is true. But these were really two of the key swing groups in this election and they are not happy with what they're seeing.
Sagar Kashyap
I agree. That is the most important. Look, elections change. They change all the time. It's one of the great lessons. One of the most exciting parts about covering this, and I try to drill it into people's heads every time before an election is just look, 96 to 2000, 2000 to 2008, 2008 to 2016, 2016 to 2024. Look at those radical changes that can all happen, by the way, even 20, I think 2016-2020 was one of the craziest elections. If you'll remember, Crystal, when we were looking at some of those South Texas numbers, I'll never forget it sitting at the desk and looking at Lara, I was like, I've never in my life could have imagined that, you know, South Texas Latinos are, would be flipping 50 points to Donald Trump. And it happened in three and a half years. Okay? So this is something that just, you know, all politicians should notice, you should fight because you never know what actually could happen. And I do think that we were are going to find that out big time in the midterm elections this time.
Asma Khalid
Yeah, we will see. All right, guys, we're going to skip Tim Dillon for today. Sagar and Emily. We'll cover that clip tomorrow because we talk too much about other things as per usual. But thank you guys so much for watching. Thank you for your support of the show. If you can become a Premium subscriber. BreakingPoints.com we take no dark money guys. There's no dark money packs funding us. We don't talk to advertisers. We really do try to keep it as pure as we possibly can around here and you guys enable that. So thank you so much and Sagar and Emily, we'll see you guys tomorrow.
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Episode: 9/9/25 – Zohran Dominates Every Issue In NYC, Israel Strikes Qatar, GenZ Gender Divide
Date: September 9, 2025
Krystal Ball and Sagar Enjeti, joined by Dave Weigel and Jeremy Scahill, dissect three headline stories:
The episode offers in-depth analysis of emerging trends in American electoral politics, U.S.-Israel policy, and cultural shifts among America’s youngest adult voters, marked by candid discussion and sharp insights from the hosts and guests.
[02:38 – 08:32]
“He [Zohran] is the only candidate who most voters say they like... Everyone else is trying to do the classic multi candidate field thing of dragging him below the water, but dragging themselves below the water, dragging each other below the water too. No one's getting the advantage.” – Dave Weigel (04:29)
“Adams does quite poorly on the issue of crime, even though... that was sort of like his bread and butter. And crime has actually come down under his tenure and yet Zohran has much higher approval.” – Asma Khalid (05:49)
“Not only did that argument fail, but it actually redounded to his benefit... It also made [his opponents] look like they were focused on these other superfluous issues.” – Asma Khalid (05:49)
[08:32 – 23:10]
“Affordability is the most powerful message in politics... and we in the abundance movement do not have the branding... the way Zohran has, or to a lesser extent, Donald Trump has.” – Dave Weigel (09:19)
“There are different views of what abundance means. Does it mean those restrictions to make it necessary? Does it mean just a deregulation where there are few trade-offs?” – Dave Weigel (13:33)
“Young people are learning that all our movement does is cut taxes and give money into foreign wars.” – Kurt Mills (Mills clip, 19:44)
“This dynamic is dementing. One could be forgiven for believing the only people this administration is reliably deporting are supporters of the Palestinian cause...” – Kurt Mills (19:44)
“Schumer, Jeffries, et cetera, who won't even endorse Zoran... certainly Israel is a part of that calculus...” – Asma Khalid (22:52)
[25:14 – 39:55]
“Israel has a long history of assassinating Palestinian political figures... So we should be watching this very carefully...” – Jeremy Scahill (25:43)
“Talking privately to officials from Hamas, they have compared this essentially to a surrender document. They suspect that it was written by Israel...” – Jeremy Scahill (28:37)
“They view that not as a surrender of Hamas... but that it would be them taking the outrageous action of surrendering the Palestinian cause of liberation.” – Jeremy Scahill (35:04)
“The cold hard fact is that... Israel can do whatever it wants in that region and not a single Arab country... are going to do a thing about it.” – Jeremy Scahill (38:48)
[41:59 – 53:55]
“I think the results are disastrous... this really is downstream to me of a lot of policy and also of culture... they're constantly chasing little luxuries... because the big things in life are so unaffordable.” – Sagar Kashyap (44:18)
“It’s actually kind of weird to put having kids as your personal definition of success, like something you have to accomplish. Now, maybe... from a male perspective it kind of entails... the financial stability to be able to pull this off...” – Asma Khalid (46:57)
“No wonder Donald Trump's in trouble. He's steady across the board. And since February... he's only gotten significantly worse among two very key groups...” – Harry Enten (54:06)
On NYC Race:
– “Everyone else is trying to do the classic multi candidate field thing of dragging him below the water... No one's getting the advantage.” – Dave Weigel (04:29)
– “...Not only did that argument [of antisemitism] fail, but it actually redounded to his benefit.” – Asma Khalid (05:49)
On Political Movements:
– “Affordability is the most powerful message in politics... and we in the abundance movement do not have the branding... the way Zohran has.” – Dave Weigel (09:19)
– “Young people are learning that all our movement does is cut taxes and give money into foreign wars.” – Kurt Mills (19:44, clip)
On Middle East Assassinations:
– “Israel has a long history of assassinating Palestinian political figures... not just within the borders of historic Palestine, but externally.” – Jeremy Scahill (25:43)
– “...If this is true, then what they're doing... they are killing the very people that Donald Trump just sent a offer to to try to reach a ceasefire deal.” – Jeremy Scahill (34:26)
On Gen Z Gender Divide:
– “You won. Neoliberalism has officially won and I think that the results are disastrous.” – Sagar Kashyap (44:18)
– “All I can think is, yeah, it's just like total neolib economic utility victory. And I don't think it's how it should be.” – Sagar Kashyap (44:18)
– “I want to temper your sadness a bit because... just the act of having kids is my definition of quote unquote success, I'd say no.” – Asma Khalid (46:57)
This episode of Breaking Points delivers a layered exploration of current fault lines in U.S. politics, foreign policy, and culture. From the left’s rising star in New York City and the limitations of centrist/technocratic “abundance” reforms, through the tumultuous politics of the Middle East and America’s generational political shifts, Krystal and Sagar—with guests—offer a bracing, honest, and perspective-rich conversation for anyone seeking to understand where things stand, and where they may be headed next.