Brew Markets – Episode Summary

Episode Title: A Divided and Data-Blind Fed Decision & Walmart’s 3D-Printed Store
Date: December 10, 2025
Host: Ann Berry (Ambery)
Guest/Co-host: John Crateau

Overview

In this episode of Brew Markets, Ann Berry breaks down a momentous and controversial Federal Reserve rate decision made amidst lingering data gaps, dives deep into the earnings and strategic pivots of Cracker Barrel and Chewy, and spotlights innovation at GE Vernova and Walmart—including Walmart’s use of 3D printing for constructing new store locations. The tone is sharp, insightful, and conversational, guiding listeners through key financial headlines and market trends.

Key Topics & Discussions

1. The Fed’s Controversial Rate Cut

(Discussion begins at 01:06)

• Background:
  The Federal Reserve made its final decision of the year, cutting rates by a quarter of a point. While this was generally expected, mounting controversy surrounds the decision due to persistent inflation (2.8% for the core PCE in September) and a lack of recent government data caused by a prolonged shutdown. The Fed usually prides itself on being data-driven, but this time operated “data blind.”

• Critical Insight:
  Ann questions the wisdom of moving ahead without the full economic picture:

  "The doggedly quote data driven Fed is running data blind if it wants to be consistent. Thanks to the record long government shutdown. Its usual full labor market and pricing metrics for October just weren't available." (Ambery, 02:00)

• Inflation & Labor Market Uncertainty:
  Inflation remains above target, and recent tariff changes haven’t yet eased pricing pressure. Powell referenced a weak housing market and softening labor demand as key factors, but there’s no clear sign of recession.

• Division Within the Fed:
  The vote was the most split since 2019:

  "Two members voted against a cut, one voted for an even deeper 50 basis points." (Ambery, 05:33)

• Liquidity Boost:
  The Fed accelerated short-term Treasury purchases—injecting cash earlier than planned to shore up bank reserves. Unclear communication around why this is happening raises more questions.

• Host’s Take:
  Ann strongly believes the Fed should have waited for incoming data:

  "I just think the Fed should have waited to get next week's data dump. Why not continue to be data driven. Why change now?" (Ambery, 05:45)

2. Cracker Barrel Earnings and the Cost of Change

(Discussion begins at 07:15)

• Backdrop:
  Cracker Barrel faced a rough quarter, following controversial changes in branding, food preparation, and store layouts. It sparked accusations of being "woke" and led to calls for CEO Julie Masino’s resignation.

• Earnings Data:

  • Revenue down 5.7% YoY ($797M)
  • Same-store sales down 4.7% YoY
  • EBITDA plunged from $45M last year to $7M this quarter

  "Any press coverage is good press coverage ... This was an expensive move." (Ambery, 08:01)

• Brand Identity Missteps:
  The chain redesigned gift shops and store decor, removed traditional items, and changed food prep—switching to reheated/frozen biscuits, disappointing even senior loyalists.

  "They were cleaning those things up, making the restaurants brighter, and folks missed that experience ... My parents ... like the bland food ... even they were done with Cracker Barrel." (John Crateau, 10:26, 11:19)

• Reversal and Recovery Attempts:
  The new CEO admitted mistakes, bringing back traditional menu items and decor, introducing BOGO (buy-one-get-one) deals, kids-eat-free offers, and corporate restructuring to save costs.

• Activist Shareholder Drama:
  Sardar Biglari, rival chain owner, continues to agitate for change but the board backed the CEO for now.

• Shareholder Response:
  Despite grim financials, transparent communication and a turnaround plan led to a slight share uptick.

  "It looks as though this was one where Cracker Barrel actually being rewarded for laying out a plan." (Ambery, 16:15)

3. Chewy’s Steady Growth via Subscriptions

(Discussion begins at 16:47)

• Earnings Highlights:

  • Net sales up 8% YoY to $3.1B
  • EBITDA up 31% ($181M)
  • EPS beat at $0.32
  • 21M active customers (up 5%)

• Business Model Strengths:
  Focus on auto-ship subscriptions ("set it and forget it" pet food and supplies) and premium Chewy Plus memberships ($49-$79/yr) leads to increased spending and retention—even with price hikes.

  "This to me is just an example of when a company proves its value proposition, customers will not only stick with it, but they're going to pay up for it." (Ambery, 19:18)

• Entering Vet Services:
  Chewy now operates 14 vet clinic locations, aiming to mimic Petco’s experiential offerings, using clinics as acquisition and retention tools.

  "Each clinic acts as both an acquisition channel and a retention driver, supporting deeper auto ship and health program anticipation." (John Crateau, 19:56)

• Stock Recovery Challenge:
  Despite solid operations, Chewy’s stock is still far from pandemic highs.

4. GE Vernova & Data Center Power Demand

(Discussion begins at 23:00)

• GE Vernova’s Surge:
  Shares jumped 15% after a bullish Investor Day, pointing to huge demand for gas turbines from AI hyperscalers and data center operators.

  "With all the AI build out everyone's been focused on big tech. Everyone's been wondering where the energy is going to come from to power these data centers ... GE Vernova at the moment is capturing attention." (Ambery, 24:04)

5. Walmart’s 3D Printed Buildings

(Discussion begins at 24:04)

• Construction Innovation:
  Walmart, in partnership with Alquist 3D, is deploying 3D printing for store construction—faster, more efficient projects (e.g., 8,000 sq. ft. expansion, 5,000 sq. ft. pickup center built in seven days).

  "Walmart is using 3D printers in a partnership to construct more than a dozen new buildings ... At the time was the largest 3D printed commercial structure in the US." (Ambery, 24:27)

6. Quick Previews & What’s Next

(Final minutes, 25:18)

• Oracle’s AI investments and debt financing will be a topic tomorrow; concerns mounting about the sustainability and bubble risk within AI, especially as big tech turns to debt.

Notable Quotes

• On the Fed’s credibility:

  "Today I see a Fed chair gifting the market an undeserved cut in the first sign that he's either more focused on his legacy or he's losing the courage of his data driven convictions."
  (Ambery, 05:56)

• On Cracker Barrel’s food changes:

  "The biscuits, which were always fine ... suddenly they weren't as good anymore ... They were more dense. The food wasn't coming out hot."
  (John Crateau, 11:03-11:15)

• On subscription business durability:

  "When a company proves its value proposition, customers will not only stick with it, but they're going to pay up for it."
  (Ambery, 19:18)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fed Rate Decision Breakdown: 01:06 – 06:00
• Cracker Barrel Earnings & Brand Crisis: 07:15 – 16:30
• Chewy’s Subscription Growth: 16:47 – 21:35
• GE Vernova & Data Center Power Needs: 23:00 – 24:04
• Walmart’s 3D Printing Strategy: 24:04 – 25:18
• Oracle’s Debt for AI and What’s Next: 25:18 – End

Memorable Moments

• Ann’s honest frustration with the Fed skipping true data dependency set a clear skeptical tone.
• The deep dive into Cracker Barrel’s brand stumbles included personal anecdotes about the definitive decline in biscuit quality.
• Chewy’s auto-ship service praised as a near-perfect execution of the “set it and forget it” subscription model.
• Walmart’s rapid 3D-printed construction effort spotlit as a signal of retail’s innovative turn.

This episode delivers a crisp, insightful tour of high-impact financial stories with Ann Berry’s signature clarity and wit, offering fresh intelligence for investors, market-watchers, and anyone curious about the evolving landscape of business and finance.