Brew Markets – October 15, 2025

Andrew Ross Sorkin on the 1929 Market Crash and Parallels to Today

Host: Ann Berry
Guest: Andrew Ross Sorkin

Overview of the Episode

In this episode of Brew Markets, host Ann Berry sits down with Andrew Ross Sorkin—NYT bestselling author, CNBC Squawk Box co-host, and DealBook founder—to discuss his new book: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History and How It Shattered a Nation. The conversation explores the events leading up to the 1929 market crash, the personalities who shaped it, and draws clear parallels to today’s market environment—covering themes such as leverage, government response, the dangers and opportunities of financial innovation, and the risks lurking in modern private credit and venture capital. The episode also touches on how Sorkin’s research on 1929 eerily mirrored events of the past few years, raising key questions about speculation, technology, information, and human nature.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Book's Intent and Market Sentiment

• Can a book spark a crash?

  • Ann asks if the buzz around the book could be the catalyst for a downturn.
  • Sorkin downplays this, saying the goal is education—not panic.
    • Quote [03:21]:

      "I certainly hope not. That's not the goal of this book. If anything, the goal is to educate people about this period of time." —Andrew Ross Sorkin

• Comparing past and potential future corrections

  • Even if a correction comes, he hopes it’s a “hiccup” not a crash like 1929 or the Great Depression, comparing it instead to the dot-com bust.

2. Policy Mistakes of 1929 and Lessons for Today

• What went wrong after the crash

  • Ordinary Americans were dangerously leveraged (borrowing $10 for every $1) [04:57].

  • Government errors:

    • Emphasis on austerity, raising taxes, implementing tariffs, and an indecisive, politically swayed Federal Reserve.
    • The US lacked today’s vast fiscal deficit, so the present situation is structurally different.

  • Quote [06:39]:

    "You do want to have an independent Fed, because when you're feeling the politics, that is a problem." —Andrew Ross Sorkin

• Today’s government levers

  • Less room for Keynesian fiscal stimulus now due to large deficits.
  • Primary tool: Flooding the system with liquidity, like in 2008 and during COVID.
    • Sorkin warns: We no longer know where all leverage lies, much is hidden in “the private credit universe.” [08:02]

3. Historical Echoes: Modern Parallels to 1929

• Speculative culture and new technologies

  • Retail trading, margin accounts, meme stocks, and new “democratized” market access today parallel the Roaring Twenties.

    • Quote [12:31]:

      "These themes ... are matching up so eerily in this very strange way with the characters and so much of the story from 29." —Andrew Ross Sorkin

  • Sorkin describes his research, using students during the pandemic to access archives, and being struck by similarities from 2021’s Robinhood and meme stock phenomenon to events in his 1929 research.

4. Information, Misinformation & Market Runs

• Then vs. Now

  • In 1929, slow, inaccurate information exacerbated panic—people didn’t know what was happening to their money for hours or days [15:23].

  • Today, while misinformation spreads fast, corrections are also swift; technology makes information more available, but “bad info” can fuel rapid bank runs, as seen during the 2023 SVB collapse.

  • Quote [15:23]:

    "Things are much more efficient. Yes, there's bad information out there, but the ability to correct that information today is much more efficient than it ever was." —Andrew Ross Sorkin

5. Prediction Markets, Meme Coins, and Regulation

• Rise of prediction markets & manipulation risks

  • Sorkin expresses discomfort with prediction markets as a signal for manipulation potential. [17:29]

  • Cites issues with meme coins, including the “Sorkin Coin,” likening them to 1929’s unregulated investment pools.

  • Quote [18:45]:

    “That was very much like the investment pools of 1929 too. So, yes, I worry about the manipulation piece. And the question is, what is the regulatory framework around these things and what constitutes insider trading? What constitutes fraud in that space?” —Andrew Ross Sorkin

• Regulators lagging behind innovation

  • He’s skeptical that regulators can keep up, especially as private markets evade traditional oversight (e.g., private credit, insurance linkages).

6. Private Credit, Insurance & Systemic Risks

• Scale and opacity of private credit
  • Sorkin and Ann discuss how the scale of private credit is new, not the concept itself [21:29].
  • Key risk: Connections between private credit funds and insurance, reminiscent of pre-2008 AIG failure.
    • Quote [22:41]:

      “So much of what’s happening now...firms that have effectively built insurance operations which is the engine room for these private credit funds. And it could become a problem one day...if they can’t pay out.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin

7. The AI Funding Cycle, Circular Investment, & Startups

• Complex financing chains
  • Massive AI investments often rely on contracts used as leverage, leading to “circular deals” or “round tripping.”
  • Sorkin is not as worried about the “too big to fail” giants—OpenAI, Nvidia—but fears smaller startups will suffer when funding dries up [24:16].

8. Democratization of Venture & Private Equity

• Retail exposure to private markets

  • As VCs and PE firms access retirement and retail funds, Sorkin warns of high valuations creating a “hot potato” environment.

  • Risks of semi-liquid funds: investors may believe they can withdraw at will but could be gated if everyone exits at once—an inherent fragility.

  • Quote [26:32]:

    “There could be this sort of hot potato game where they start to sell certain assets from one fund into another fund. Just the amount of business that’s going on from private equity firm to private equity firm and venture capital, that is a scary business unto itself.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin

9. Mark-to-Market (or Mark-to-Make-Believe) & Transparency

• Issues with fair and timely valuation in private funds, often reliant on managers themselves—a call for stricter, truly independent auditing standards [29:40].

10. Government Cheerleading & Buy America

• The White House’s market optimism

  • Sorkin is conflicted: supporting domestic manufacturing may promote resilience/national security, but also risks inefficiency and higher costs for Americans.

  • Quote [30:44]:

    "I have such mixed views. I'm so uncertain myself as to where we really are right now."

11. Sorkin’s Personal Portfolio Philosophy

• He is prohibited from owning individual equities; sticks to index funds and cash.
• Recounts a story of getting $5 in Bitcoin from Brian Armstrong (Coinbase) in 2013—now worth ~$1,000—which he keeps as a market curiosity [33:41].

12. Surprising Insights from 8 Years of Research

• Most shocked by the uncanny recurrence of character types across financial history—seeing echoes of today’s Wall Street personalities in those of 1929.

  • Warns speculation is both a danger and essential twin to innovation.

  • Human nature’s insatiable desire for “more”—a consistent force from 1929 to today.

  • Quote [35:48]:

    “What's your number?... And he looks at him and he goes, more, more. And I think that that is been the human condition in 1929. It's the human condition in 2025. And how you get away from that if you need to get away from that, maybe that's an important motivating factor.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [03:21] “That's not the goal of this book. If anything, the goal is to educate people about this period of time...it actually puts the focus on where we are in the market and prevents us from going off of a cliff.” — Sorkin
• [06:39] “You do want to have an independent Fed, because when you're feeling the politics, that is a problem.” — Sorkin
• [12:31] “These themes ... are matching up so eerily in this very strange way with the characters and so much of the story from 29.” — Sorkin
• [15:23] “Things are much more efficient. Yes, there's bad information out there, but the ability to correct that information today is much more efficient than it ever was.” — Sorkin
• [18:45] “That was very much like the investment pools of 1929 too. So, yes, I worry about the manipulation piece...” — Sorkin
• [22:41] “So much of what’s happening now...firms that have effectively built insurance operations which is the engine room for these private credit funds. And it could become a problem one day...” — Sorkin
• [26:32] “There could be this sort of hot potato game where they start to sell certain assets from one fund into another fund...that is a scary business unto itself.” — Sorkin
• [30:44] “I have such mixed views. I'm so uncertain myself as to where we really are right now.” — Sorkin
• [35:48] “What's your number? ... He looks at him and he goes, more, more. And I think that that is been the human condition in 1929. It's the human condition in 2025.” — Sorkin

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:03–04:45] — Could this book spark a market crash? & Policy errors post-1929
• [07:03–09:26] — Parallels between 1929 and now; the dangers of leverage and unknown risks
• [11:54–14:16] — The “democratized” trading environment of 2021 and connections to 1929
• [15:23–16:55] — Information, misinformation, and market panics—the role of social media versus old news delays
• [17:09–19:50] — Prediction markets and the rise of meme coins as unregulated speculation
• [21:06–23:47] — The challenge of regulating private credit and insurance interconnectedness
• [24:16–26:32] — Funding “circularity” in AI and risks in the startup/VC ecosystem
• [26:32–29:49] — The risks in democratizing private markets for everyday investors
• [32:03–33:57] — Sorkin’s personal investment approach; a Bitcoin windfall story
• [34:19–36:21] — Most shocking findings from research; speculation vs. innovation; human nature's financial drive

Takeaways

• History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes—many features of the 1929 crash reappear today: easy leverage, new technologies, democratized trading, flawed regulatory structures.
• The complexity and opacity of modern finance (e.g., private credit, insurance, venture capital structures) may have created new systemic risks.
• Fast information flow today solves some problems but may also magnify panic; misinformation remains a hazard.
• Speculation is both a vital and risky driver of progress, and human appetite for “more” appears universal and timeless.
• Regulation is perennially behind innovation, creating opportunities and vulnerabilities alike.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode is a must-listen for investors, market watchers, or anyone curious how history’s greatest financial collapse can inform the present. Sorkin offers a rare perspective—mixing historical detail, market insight, and candid reflection on risks, human psychology, and our market future.

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