Brew Markets Daily — Episode Summary

Podcast: Brew Markets
Host: Ann Berry
Date: January 21, 2026
Episode: Berkshire May Exit Kraft Heinz Debacle & Netflix Shares Hit 52-Week Low

Overview

This episode delves into several major market stories:

• Berkshire Hathaway signaling a possible exit from its troubled Kraft Heinz investment
• Netflix’s strong earnings but weak future guidance, sending its shares to a 52-week low
• The evolving Netflix–Warner Brothers Discovery acquisition saga
• A rapid-fire rundown of President Trump’s World Economic Forum speech and its market implications
• Additional market and industry tidbits, including airline earnings and potential credit card rate caps

Host Ann Berry, along with producer John Coteau, offers sharp analysis on each topic, mixing investing insight with market context and a touch of humor.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Berkshire Hathaway & Kraft Heinz: A Painful Pullback

[00:28 – 04:13]

• SEC Filing Signals: Berkshire filed with regulators, clearing the way to sell its 27.5% Kraft Heinz stake.
• Historical Context: Warren Buffett's 2015 mega-merger investment has since soured, with shares dropping 70% and a $3.8B write-down in 2025.
• Dividends as a Cushion: Dividends softened the blow, but not enough to consider the investment successful.
• New CEO Marks His Territory: Greg Abel, Buffett’s successor, appears willing to make bolder moves and possibly pivot from Buffett’s legacy choices.
  • “It is hard to imagine that Greg Abel didn't get Buffett's blessing to do this, but the timing is interesting nevertheless.” (Ann Berry, [01:53])
• Kraft Heinz Reorganization: Kraft Heinz will split into two companies:
  • ‘Global taste elevation’ (Heinz, Philadelphia, Kraft Mac and Cheese)
  • North American grocery (Oscar Mayer, Lunchables)
• Strategic Food Industry Shifts: Large food conglomerates breaking up mirrors trends seen at Keurig Dr. Pepper and Kellogg.
• Outlook: Berkshire may keep some stake post-split; watchers eye moves by other legacy food brands like Campbell.

2. Netflix’s Strong Q4 But Shares Slide on Cautious Forecast

[04:53 – 19:08]

• Earnings Beat:
  • Revenue: $12B (+18% y/y);
  • Operating Income: $3B;
  • EPS: $0.56 (beat by $0.01);
  • Subscribers: 325M
• Market Reaction: Despite growth, shares hit a 52-week low as guidance soured sentiment.
• 2026 Projections:
  • Revenue forecast: $51B (+12–14%, down from +16%)
  • Content spending to rise 10% in 2026, partly due to sports rights and Warner acquisition impact.
• Profit Concerns:
  “These subscriber numbers need to keep going up ... feels as though the market is saying, you know what, this isn't as high conviction as we're used to hearing from Netflix.” (Ann Berry, [07:34])

Streaming Subscription Fatigue and Price Elasticity

• Price Fatigue Real:
  “I currently pay $30 ... if you want to upgrade to 4K, spend another $9. ... It’s very expensive.” (John Coteau, [07:53])
  • Ann suggests streamers, including Netflix, have enjoyed inelastic pricing—consumers stick around despite price hikes.
  • John pushes back: “When it’s $40, it’s bumping up on that old [cable bill] number.” ([09:31])

3. Netflix-Warner Brothers Discovery Deal: Reshuffling the Deck

[09:57 – 15:22]

• Deal Tweaks: Netflix now offers Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders an all-cash deal, not stock-plus-cash.
  • Expedites a shareholder vote (as soon as April).
  • Ann: “Time often kills deals... so the idea that this move from Netflix will accelerate the timeline ... is a good, smart strategic move.” ([10:35])
• Boxing Out Rivals: Move limits challenger bids, especially Paramount’s.
• Financing Risks:
  • Moving to all-cash adds debt: from $60B to $80B in combined company leverage.
  • “Shareholders ... have to be really comfortable that this deal creates enough value ... that the risk ... actually rewards them sufficiently.” (Ann Berry, [12:18])

Hollywood Sentiment and Netflix’s Theatrical Pivot

• Ted Sarandos, once a theatrical skeptic, now promises a 45-day movie window in cinemas if the deal goes through.
  • “He has, it's been contentious, his relationship ... with amc ... so interesting to hear Ted on the earnings call say ... when this deal closes, we will be in the theatrical business.” (John Coteau, [14:00])
• Ann notes, if the deal doesn’t go through, Netflix’s real intentions about theaters may be revealed long-term.

Content Strategy: Originals vs. Licensing

• Less licensed (“second-run”) content led to a decline in “non-branded view hours.”
  • “Subscribers [are] burning through content. Netflix needing to acquire more, which frankly is a story behind why they're saying they're going to increase their spend on content by 10%.” (Ann Berry, [15:22])
• New deals: Universal Animation, DreamWorks, Sony (K Pop Demon Hunters).
• Data:
  • “Happy Gilmore 2 ... was the second rated streamed movie ... 135 million views. ... K Pop Demon Hunters was 482 million views.” (John Coteau, [16:07])
  • Context: shows value of outside content vs. originals.

Regulatory Messaging: Fighting for Attention, Not Monopoly

• Netflix frames itself as not a monopoly—competes with all entertainment, including TikTok, gaming, TV, etc.
  • Ann: “...the definition of competition evolves and is used in these negotiations with your overseers.” ([17:17])
• Market share context:
  • Netflix = 9% of US screen time (high), but linear TV remains over 40% ([18:46]).

4. President Trump at Davos: Key Takeaways

[19:59 – 22:14]

• 80-Minute Speech in 60 Seconds: Ann and John give a rapid-fire, quote-filled rundown.
  • “Business booming, borders closed, inflation defeated.” (Ann Berry, [20:42])
  • “We’re opening [energy] plants, taking down windmills.” (Ann Berry, [20:59])
  • On Greenland control: “I don’t have to use force, I don’t want to use force, I won’t use force.” (Ann Berry, [21:38])
• Market-Driving Lines: Markets rallied on Trump's non-forceful stance regarding Greenland.
• Summary: Focus heavily on US economic optics, my-country-first, energy, tariffs, and NATO payments.

5. Quick Market Notes: United Airlines, Credit Card Rates

[22:14 – End]

• Market Closing Bell:
  • Major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow) up nearly 1–2.1%; United Airlines beats for 14th straight quarter.
  • United emphasizes business/premium travel as a growth driver.
• Credit Card Rate Cap?:
  • JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon suggests a pilot test of a 10% interest cap—in Vermont and Massachusetts, homes of Senators Warren and Sanders.
  • Ann calls it a “headline grabber”—a shot aimed at regulation advocates.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Berkshire’s Kraft Heinz Outcome:

  • “Kraft Heinz was one of the rare investing missteps of Berkshire founder and icon Warren Buffett… Since then, the company shares have sunk about 70%.”
    — Ann Berry ([00:52])

• On Netflix’s Choppy Guidance:

  • “The market is saying, you know what, this isn't as high conviction as we're used to hearing from Netflix.”
    — Ann Berry ([07:34])

• On Subscriber Fatigue:

  • “I currently pay $30…if you want to upgrade to 4K, spend another $9. I didn’t know I wasn’t even getting the best version of Netflix.”
    — John Coteau ([07:53])

• On Dealmaking Wisdom:

  • “Time often kills deals…Circumstances can change that are outside your control. People may just sort of get cold feet.”
    — Ann Berry ([10:35])

• On Netflix’s Evolution:

  • “Ted Sarandos…has been everywhere for years saying we're not in the movie business…so interesting to hear Ted on the earnings call say…when this deal closes, we will be in the theatrical business.”
    — John Coteau ([13:42])

• On Political Stagecraft:

  • “The best will come last…but John, you kick off.”
    — Ann Berry, teeing up the Davos speech segment ([20:40])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Berkshire Exiting Kraft Heinz: 00:28 – 04:13
• Netflix Earnings & Stock Reaction: 04:56 – 09:56
• Netflix–Warner Brothers Deal Details: 09:57 – 13:02
• Hollywood, Content Strategy, and Licensing: 13:24 – 16:43
• Regulatory & Competition Framing: 16:43 – 19:08
• Trump at Davos (Rapid Fire): 19:59 – 22:14
• Airlines, Credit Card Rate Cap: 22:14 – 24:02

Tone and Final Thoughts

The conversation is fast-paced and analytical, sharp yet accessible, with Ann Berry’s investor expertise complemented by John Coteau’s relatable consumer perspective. The episode delivers practical context and behind-the-headlines insight—whether you care about investments, streaming, regulatory chess, or the interplay between business and politics.

If you missed the full show, this summary gives you the knowledge—and some spicy quotes—to be in the know.