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Experian Narrator
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Ann Berry
Experian. Netflix beat on earnings, but the Stock Touched a 52 week low we look at the numbers and the revised bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. President Trump addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos today. We hit the highlights of his 80 minute long address in our 60 second version and a decade on and after billions in losses, Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO moves to guide it away from an ill fated food tie up. That's Kraft Heinz. We break it down for Wednesday, January 21st. It's Brew Markets Daily and I'm Ann Berry. More market details to come. But first, Kraft Heinz dropped today after Berkshire Hathaway registered an SEC filing. That clears the way for it to sell its 27.5% stake in the food giant. Kraft Heinz was one of the rare investing missteps of Berkshire founder and icon Warren Buffett, who had supported the 2015 mega merger that created the food conglomerate. Since then, the company shares have sunk about 70%, reflecting mediocre growth and a failure to innovate to keep up with changes in consumer preferences. Now, some of Berkshire's losses from that initial almost $10 billion investment have been offset over time by dividends. This is the beauty of dividends received from Kraft Heinz, but Berkshire still took a $3.8 billion write down on the position last year. Now, Buffett stepped out of the Berkshire CEO role at the top of this year, and today's major move signals that his successor, Greg Abel, is quickly making his own mark on the iconic investment firm. Which is somewhat striking as the market watches Abel closely to see if he aspires to make any significant changes to the firm's strategy or if in fact he can. While Buffett remains the largest shareholder and chair of the board. If it is hard to imagine that Greg Abel didn't get Buffett's blessing to do this, but the timing is interesting nevertheless. Now though the filing creates the option for Berkshire to sell down, it doesn't mean that the move is guaranteed. Like many others in the food space, Kraft Heinz is reorganizing itself in an attempt to rev growth back up. It announced in September that it will split into two independent publicly traded companies later this year. Those will be a quote global taste elevation company that will include the Heinz Philadelphia and Kraft Mac and Cheese brands. And then there'll be the North American grocery company that includes Oscar Mayer and Lunchables. The split is expected to cost around $300 million. These things are expensive. With leadership changes already underway for the new entities. Well, this move follows in the footsteps of Keg, Dr. Pepper and Kellogg, which had their epiphanies sooner than Kraft Heights had its wake up call that the age of mammoth food conglomerates is over in the United States, at least for now, replaced with smaller holding companies focused either by category or by growth profiles. Now it may be that Berkshire holds on to some of its Kraft Heinz position to stay invested in those two independent companies once they are spun out. There's a lot going on here and actually there's a lot going on in the food industry. And Campbell, another one we're keeping an eye on one of the few that hasn't yet announced a mega move in terms of strategy or reorganization. So keeping our eyes on that one too. Well, keep on watching. Coming up, Netflix continues its hearts and minds campaign for Warner Brothers Discovery, but the market fixates on a soft 2026 forecast and we hit the highlights of President Trump's 80 minute speech today, long awaited from the World Economic Forum in Davos. But first a word from our sponsor Public John, have you generated anything lately?
John Coteau
In a way, my exercise bike is directly connected to my television. So while I'm powering it while I watch.
Ann Berry
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Ann Berry
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John Coteau
Full disclosure in Podcast Description well Netflix.
Ann Berry
Reported its earnings last night and also released its biannual engagement report highlighting which shows on the streamer are racking up millions of hours of viewing. And it's important to note which of those shows are Netflix Originals and which are licensed. More on that thread in a moment. Well, the company also continues to make its case to shareholders, to Hollywood and to regulators that its deal on the table to purchase Warner Brothers Studios is in everybody's best interest. So much so is the courting happening that Netflix Co CEO Ted Sarandos in a 180 degree turnaround is promoting the company's approach to theatrical releases. Well, let's start with the numbers, John. Let's get into the good stuff for the most recent quarter, right Netflix reported.
John Coteau
Last night ticker NFL X on the Nasdaq market cap of $370 billion. Solid numbers for the last quarter. Revenue of $12 billion was up 18% year over year. Operating income was $3 billion up percent year over year. Earnings per share of $0.56 beat estimates by a penny. And Netflix did hit a new milestone of 325 million subscribers.
Ann Berry
So all in all that was a relatively strong quarter. I think most companies at most points in their life would be pretty happy with that. But Netflix, we've of course gotten used to delivering incredibly strong growth. That 325 million subscriber number though pretty impressive milestone shares nevertheless down today with at least 10 analysts already cutting their targets for the stock price. And that' because the issue here is that the company put out soft guidance for 2026. Netflix forecast around $51 billion in revenue for this year representing growth of 12 to 14%. Again for a lot of people that's pretty attractive growth. Problem is it's down from 16% last year. The other issue is that the growth going forward is expected to be pretty expensive. Netflix now pursuing live sports and the rights to air, the rights to broadcast sports. You know, stereotypically extremely extre pricey. Now the company plans to increase content spending by 10% in 2026, which along with a 275 million dollar expected impact from the Warner acquisition or that that would be a one off that the market would typically add back. That increase in content spend is expected to reduce profit. Now the forecast is also based on assumptions around increases in membership, which means that these subscriber numbers need to keep going up to deliver on this and also pricing along with a doubling of ad revenue. And just to put that ad number in perspective, for the full year 2025, Netflix hit one and a half billion dollars of ad sales, which in turn was double what it has seen beforehand. So there's a lot of ifs that need to come together even for this forecast, which is somewhat soft to come together for this year. And feels as though the market is saying, you know what, this isn't as high conviction as we're used to hearing from Netflix. Right.
John Coteau
And we keep seeing and hearing and feeling pricing fatigue. I have had Netflix for a long time. I always see ads. You can start as little as $7.99 a month. But I currently pay $30 a month for my subscription and my mom's. We're in two different households. It's a family subscription. But then I got a notice on my Netflix over the weekend that said if you want to upgrade to 4K, you can spend another $9 a month. I didn't know I wasn't even getting the best version of Netflix. And so it's very expensive. And there's a sentiment that a price hike won't sit well with regulators that have to approve the Warner Brothers deal. Netflix needs to look competitive and pro consumer in its pricing.
Ann Berry
We'll come back to the Warner Brothers deal in just a minute, but let's just push, I sort of push a little bit on this idea that you won't stand for another price hike. Okay. I also subscribe to Netflix. I love Netflix. I would eat another price hike. I hate to say it, but I would because I just think about where else am I going to go that's going to have the concentration of content that I really enjoy. The algorithm's absolutely got my number right. So the recommendations are landing. And I guess the reason I'm bringing this up is one of the questions that's been hanging over the streamers for a while is this, I'm going to nerd out here. This question of price elasticity, which is every time you increase a price, how much demand do you see falling off to offset it? And so far, the streamers, and it's not just Netflix, it's the others, like Disney and the others, too, have shown that these are fairly priced inelastic goods, meaning a change in price has relatively limited impact in demand. But I'm hearing you, John, taking the other side of this and saying you're pretty high conviction. You don't want any more price hikes here.
John Coteau
You know something about it hitting $30 when it's. When it's 14 to 15, 21. But 40 is starting to get into my memory of what I paid for cable. It's starting to hit this amount where if we're talking about options, I could get maybe something like YouTube television or a cable subscription. It's it's bumping up on that old number.
Ann Berry
Interesting. And that's the other thing too. There are whole studies done on the psychology of pricing. You know, things that are priced at, for example, 999.
John Coteau
Sure.
Ann Berry
As opposed to 10 bucks. There is something emotional when we get to certain thresholds. So very interesting perspective. Well, let's talk about the Warner Brothers deal because there has been a bit of an update on this one. Netflix and Warner Brothers Discovery amended the merger agreement that has been on the table. And instead of there being a Netflix deal that consists of a mix of stock and Netflix stock and cash, the new agreement provides for an all cash transaction in which Warner Brothers Discovery shareholders are just going to get straight 27 bucks, $75 for Netflix. Again, just for the studios part of the business. Right. So there's a piece of the business that's being left behind. Now, Netflix expects that this will expedite the timeline of a Warner Brothers Discovery vote, potentially moving it up to as early as April that's accelerated from June. Just to comment on this one, there's an old saying on Wall Street I sort of grew up on this. Time often kills deals. Circumstances can change that are outside your control. People may just sort of get cold feet. So the idea that this move from Netflix will accelerate the timeline of closing of this deal is something that deal makers will probably recognize as a good, smart strategic move. Now they're trying to box out obviously Paramount Skydance's hostile bid also in this move, by limiting the time made available to Paramount to push on what they have started, which is their proxy challenge, meaning going directly to Warner Brothers shareholders because they're frustrated with the board. Paramount wanting to take over the Warner board in order to get their bid taken more seriously.
John Coteau
And this also simplifies things because if you're talking about Netflix offering cash plus stock in Netflix, Netflix's stock has been down 30% since it put in that initial bid for Warner's. And so it meant less and less to have that Netflix stock.
Ann Berry
Absolutely. There's also one more point on this which just bear with me for a minute because it's not just relevant to this deal, it's relevant to lots of deals. By moving to an all cash bid, Netflix is going to have to take out more debt in order to produce that cash with which to pay Warner Brothers shareholders. Now, before this updated agreement, Netflix was teed up to take out nearly $60 billion in debt to fund the deal. Netflix can afford it. It generates a lot of cash. It's got a Strong balance sheet. But even then, shareholders weren't super excited for the following reason. Equity shares stock sits underneath debt. It is junior to debt and so it is riskier than the loans made to a company. So when a company like Netflix comes out and says we're going to take out a whole bunch of debt to do a deal, the shareholders, the equity holders, have to be really comfortable that this deal creates enough value that the risk that they are taking sitting behind all this debt actually rewards them sufficiently. Now in replacing the stock offer element with cash, Netflix is expanding its debt load even more to about 80% billion on the combined company. So once again, I think part of the reason we have seen the 30% share price drop is because you've seen investors in Netflix anticipating increased risk in the capital structure versus what they are used to. So nerdy point from me over here on the financing.
John Coteau
Very interesting. And so there's the financing aspect and then there's also, just like you said, hearts and minds, Hollywood sentiment. And Ted Sarandos, the co CEO of Netflix has been everywhere this week. I've seen him trying to win over Hollywood, saying that the deal would see Netflix expand production capacity in the US and grow investment in original content over the long term, creating jobs and helping sustain a healthy entertainment industry.
Ann Berry
He's also been insisting that Netflix will commit to a 45 day theatrical windows. That means putting movies into the cinemas right after its acquisition of Warner Brothers, which is a real change for Netflix. Actually, John, you've got strong feelings on this.
John Coteau
You do.
Ann Berry
This is an emotional issue for you.
John Coteau
It's emotional, but Ted Sarandos has been everywhere for years saying we're not in the movie business, we're not a movie company. He has, it's been contentious, his relationship, I would say with amc, one of the country's biggest movie theater chains. And so it was so interesting to hear Ted on the earnings call say, I have in the past made observations about the theatrical business. We were not in the theatrical business when I made those observations. When this deal closes, we will be in the theatrical business. So he's having a refresh to his point of view.
Ann Berry
It's so interesting because some people will sit there and say, oh, I don't trust him. I feel, you know, this is such a U turn that I've been lied to. Other people are saying, look, when the world changes, you change with it and the reality is going to be different. So we'll see how this shuffles out. The real litmus test is going to be if Netflix ends up not buying Warner Brothers Discovery. It'll be very curious to see what their theatrical releases policy looks like over time, especially as their content evolves to having more movies. Let's talk a little bit about a Netflix letter to shareholders that gets a little bit more insight in Netflix's own words about why they're so eager to take over Warner Brothers.
John Coteau
And so this is from the the shareholder letter and I'm going to quote our overall engagement growth in the second half of 2025, however, was partially offset by a year over year decline in viewing of non branded view hours. So people watched less non Netflix programming. This decrease primarily reflected a lower volume of licensed second run content across most regions following an elevated period of licensing. So that is Netflix saying we didn't have as much content from outside parties to deliver to our customers.
Ann Berry
Fascinating. Subscribers is burning through content. Netflix needing to acquire more, which frankly is a story behind why they're saying they're going to increase their spend on content by 10% for this upcoming year. The company also said that here in 2026 it will be expanding its licensing deals with Universal Animation, Illumination, that's the Minions, and DreamWorks Animation. And last week we talked about their global deal with Sony Pictures at the studio that brought it the smash hit K Pop Demon Hunters.
John Coteau
Yes. And we'll get to this in a minute. We'll talk about it right now. They came out with the list that Netflix does twice a year, their biannual list of the top viewed movies and television shows. And by far. I'll put this in context.
Ann Berry
Yeah.
John Coteau
Happy Gilmore 2.
Ann Berry
Yeah.
John Coteau
Was the second rated streamed viewed movie on Netflix at 135 million views. 135 million views of Happy Gilmore. And that's a Netflix property they own that they made that K Pop demon hunters was 482 million views. So three times, two and a half, three times as many. And that came from Sony. So it just puts the emphasis on how important these third party programs can be for Netflix.
Ann Berry
Yeah, huge. And puts into context why they would be lining up to buy the libraries of someone like a Warner Brothers as well.
John Coteau
Yeah, they get friends, they get Harry Potter and also they're looking to get into video gaming. They're trying everything. Is the deal going to go through with regulators? Netflix is speaking to that too. The company laid out an argument to regulators why the deal is the odds opposite of anti competitive, that the company needs to grow because it's fighting all leisure activities for timeshare, including but not limited to other streaming services, linear television, social media, Open content platforms, video gaming, concerts. Netflix is saying we need to grow to compete with all these other things that are vying for customers attention.
Ann Berry
Something by the way, which is consistent with what it's trying to do with the Netflix app, which is trying to look and feel something like something that is much more social media like in terms of its style and flavor. So it's walking the walk, it's also talking the talk. And it also just goes to show how in this age of technology the definition of comp, of competition evolves and is used in these negotiations with your overseers. We saw this, if you'll recall, when Google was fighting its antitrust case and said look, you can't say that we monopolize search anymore because we've got the ankle biters that are growing up quickly that are the likes of chat, GPT and Gemini. So in these tech fueled environments, so much happens so quickly to change the nature of some of these conversations. Now the other way in which the Netflix pointed out that lines between consumption patterns are getting blurry is by pointing an event that happened fairly recently, right, which is the Golden Globes, which broadcast simultaneously on CBS and Paramount. Plus last year's super bowl was simulcast on Fox and Tubi. And this is a big one, YouTube, which in 2029 will be the new home for the Oscars telecast. Plus Instagram reels are coming to television and Amazon prime shows, NFL games. So everything is sort of converging content converging to land in, in different places than we've seen historically. It's also just worth talking John, very quickly on the share of US TV time that Netflix has been accounting for actually. Right.
John Coteau
And I feel like they're trying to get their their way on both sides of this, pointing out that in December Netflix share of US time reached an all time high of 9%. 9% of viewing was of Netflix. But linear TV still comprises over 40% of US screen time. So they're saying things are going great over at Netflix but not too great, that you have to worry about us being a monopoly.
Ann Berry
Yes, exactly. Well in earlier trading today, Netflix shares, as we said up the top hit a 52 week low that was 81 bucks 93 cents, eventually ending down around 2% closer towards the end of the trading session. Let's take a quick break and when we come back from windmills to NATO, we're going to speed through the key moments of President Trump's 80 minute address today from the World Economic Forum.
State Farm Narrator
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Ann Berry
Greenland, Venezuela tariffs, NATO spending. President Trump gave a broad 80 minute long speech in Davos this morning at the World Economic Forum and it was a long awaited one by the market for insights into what the outlook for geopolitical instability and trade wars may look like. Those are things that the market does not like to see. Now, a lot was covered in the President's speech. We watched all of it and decided to give you the punchlines in under roughly one minute. That's John and I at speed that Trump delivered, quoting his words by issue, rapid fire style. So here goes the biggest statement. Of course we're going to save for the end. The best will come last. But John, you kick off, you go first.
John Coteau
First year back in office.
Ann Berry
Here's the paraphrase version. Business booming, borders closed, inflation defeated.
John Coteau
The Biden administration, stagflation, NATO, we paid for everything.
Ann Berry
America, the hottest country anywhere in the world. He didn't mean the weather, by the way.
John Coteau
Europe love it, but it's not heading in the right direction.
Ann Berry
Global outlook, When America booms, the entire world booms. Energy plants, we're opening them up. Windmills, we're taking them down.
John Coteau
The uk There are windmills all over the place.
Ann Berry
Tariffs radically reduced our ballooning trade deficit. Just as a side note, he did not discuss, by the way, the 10% tariffs. He announced this weekend that he's going to levy on European NATO members. He wants to help him push Denmark to sell. Greenland, Venezuela, those 50 million barrels we're.
John Coteau
Going to be splitting up with them. AI or how tech companies should power it.
Ann Berry
You can build your own electric generating.
John Coteau
Plant and Greenland, I don't have to use force. I don't want to use force. I won't use force.
Ann Berry
There was more, of course, it was 80 minutes long. But we did pick out the quotations that caught our attention most because everything we just listed focus much more on the economic issues that the market is most focused on. But it was that last position, the president explicitly saying that with respect to controlling Greenland, again, quote, I don't have to use force, I don't want to use force, I won't use force. That is what sent the markets, the equity markets in particular, up today? Well, it's 4:00pm on the east coast as the closing bell. The markets have wrapped up today and we don't have a ticker tape so we'll throw it over to our human ticker, our producer John.
John Coteau
The S&P 500, the NASDAQ, the Dow all finished up nearly 1 and 2, 10 of a percent today. And United saw its stock price up Today on its 14th straight quarterly earnings beat.
Ann Berry
We love to talk about anything travel. So last night's earnings from United were ones we were cheering actually as they continued a theme that we have seen repeatedly now amongst the airlines and that's business travel and premium travel are what is driving growth.
John Coteau
Other themes we see taking shape in air travel impact from last year's government shutdown. United pegged theirs at 250 million of pre tax earnings and general weariness. Regarding geopolitical tension, United CEO saying today we're the largest global airline from the US we're exposed to all levels that are all around the globe. Shares in United were up nearly 2% today.
Ann Berry
Well, just as a final thought, there was something that caught my eye which I thought was worth sharing. Now, we've all been Talking about that 10% potential cap on credit card interest rates. And Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, is one of the few voices from the banking community that's actually gone on the record to talk about why he thinks it is a really bad idea to have them. And he just said something while he's in Davos with the great and the good this week that just caught my eye. He basically advocated for having a pilot. He said, let's test out this 10 cap and let's do it in the states of Vermont and Massachusetts, which are of course the backyards of Senator Bernie Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren, both of whom have advocated for this kind of credit card interest rate cap in the past. So watch out for that one. It was definitely a headline grabber. It was a clever sound bite designed clearly to get people's attention. There's just a chance it might actually turn into something real. We're going to keep on watching. That's it for today's Brew Markets Daily.
John Coteau
Brew Markets Daily is hosted by Anne Barry and produced by John Coteau, Target, Bella Teeth and Emily Milliron. Our technical director is Lonnie Fiskis, Jim Orzo is our audio engineer and the of Morning Brew Inc. Is Devin Emery. If you have any feedback or a company you'd like us to COVID leave a comment or send an email to brewmarketshow. Morning brew dot com.
Ann Berry
Wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter and tune in to Neil and Toby on Morning Brew daily. We'll see you back here tomorrow, same time, same place.
Podcast: Brew Markets
Host: Ann Berry
Date: January 21, 2026
Episode: Berkshire May Exit Kraft Heinz Debacle & Netflix Shares Hit 52-Week Low
This episode delves into several major market stories:
Host Ann Berry, along with producer John Coteau, offers sharp analysis on each topic, mixing investing insight with market context and a touch of humor.
[00:28 – 04:13]
[04:53 – 19:08]
[09:57 – 15:22]
[19:59 – 22:14]
[22:14 – End]
On Berkshire’s Kraft Heinz Outcome:
On Netflix’s Choppy Guidance:
On Subscriber Fatigue:
On Dealmaking Wisdom:
On Netflix’s Evolution:
On Political Stagecraft:
The conversation is fast-paced and analytical, sharp yet accessible, with Ann Berry’s investor expertise complemented by John Coteau’s relatable consumer perspective. The episode delivers practical context and behind-the-headlines insight—whether you care about investments, streaming, regulatory chess, or the interplay between business and politics.
If you missed the full show, this summary gives you the knowledge—and some spicy quotes—to be in the know.