Brew Markets – Episode Summary
Episode: Capital One Going Fintech with Brex & Inside Intel’s Supply Issues
Date: January 26, 2026
Host: Ann Berry with John (co-host)
Podcast: Brew Markets (Morning Brew)
Episode Overview
This episode dives into three major market stories:
- Capital One’s $5.15 billion acquisition of fintech unicorn Brex
- Intel’s recent struggles, supply chain issues, and the impacts of U.S. government investment
- Booz Allen Hamilton’s stock drop after losing a major Treasury contract due to data breach fallout
Additional market news, including notable moves in gold, silver, and food industry M&A, is also covered.
Ann Berry brings context and commentary to each story, examining not just the surface moves but the structural implications for investors and markets.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Capital One’s Acquisition of Brex
[00:02–05:17]
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Deal Details:
- Capital One is acquiring Brex for $5.15 billion (cash and stock).
- Brex is a fintech specializing in corporate credit cards and expense management, with over 25,000 tech-forward customers.
- This follows Capital One’s $35 billion Discover merger in the prior year, solidifying its place among card giants.
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Strategic Context:
- Ann: “This merger is the everything bagel of the market’s focus points—public and private right now.” (00:49)
- Brex’s valuation ($12B at its 2022 peak) is being cut by nearly 60% in this deal.
- Early investors (e.g., Y Combinator) still see strong returns. Later investors (e.g., Tiger Global) are likely facing losses or no gain.
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Market Reactions and Broader Trends:
- Capital One gets a growing fintech platform at a discount.
- Market is “still deciding if even this discount brings Capital One enough value for its five plus billion dollars.” (03:26)
- Ann points to the challenge: integrating modern API-driven infrastructure into “the sort of older, maybe stodgier, Capital One’s massive scale is a big, big lift.”
- Capital One’s stock is volatile, with pressure from President Trump’s proposed cap on credit card interest rates.
- VC Exit Theme: “Private markets…wondering if it’s a concrete sign those peak Covid valuations are never coming back…a theme to watch as tech IPOs ramp up this year.” (04:25)
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Lessons for Investors:
- Entry price remains “everything” for investor returns.
- Reference to past IPO darlings still underwater: “Stocks like Warby Parker and Coinbase…are still struggling to get their prices back up to those levels.”
2. Inside Intel’s Manufacturing and Market Woes
[06:04–14:10]
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Intel’s Recent Performance:
- Shares fell 17% post-earnings, down another 5% the next day.
- Q4 revenue: $13.7B (down 4% YoY), EPS: $0.15—both slight beats vs. estimates, but outlook disappointed.
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The Core Problem:
- Demand/supply mismatch: “Intel made a strategic decision to reduce its manufacturing capacity right ahead of a big increase in demand…” (08:17)
- Server chip supply is depleted; new supply won't arrive until end of the quarter.
- Customers suffer from delayed components—a “fundamental mismatch” across Intel’s business.
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Business Identity Clash:
- Intel is torn between focusing on server chips (critical for AI/data center wave) and its legacy PC business.
- Ann: “It’s a bit of an identity crisis...they sell server chips, but Intel has been a household name for decades with personal computing…still the heart of the company.” (09:09)
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The Foundry Gamble:
- Intel’s foundry division, spun up to manufacture chips, requires massive capex and scale.
- Currently, most orders are in-house; external customers (e.g., Apple, rumored) remain elusive.
- “Intel has utterly failed to do that so far,” facing a chicken-and-egg problem between price competitiveness and scale. (10:45)
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U.S. Government Stake and Impact:
- In August, government invested $8.9B via CHIPS Act and other incentives; stake up to ~$20B on paper, nearly doubled.
- Hope was that government/SoftBank partnership would attract customers—so far, not materializing.
- Ann: “If it can’t deliver even with this might behind it, there is a real question around whether it could ever deliver at all. Hope, folks, is not a strategy, right?” (13:32)
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Bottom Line:
- Ongoing questions about Intel’s execution, ability to capitalize on capex, and retaining/growing customer base in manufacturing.
- John: “Intel faces an execution challenge that kept coming up on the call and in interviews and the company is laser-focused on improving execution.” (11:55)
3. Booz Allen Hamilton’s Client Loss and Market Reaction
[16:52–18:26]
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What Happened:
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant canceled all Treasury contracts with Booz Allen (about $5M per year, $21M total obligations), following leaks by a former employee who “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers, including President Trump.” (16:52)
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Market Impact:
- Booz Allen stock dropped 10%.
- Ann contextualizes: “$5 million in annual spending...is sort of a drop in the ocean” relative to Booz’s $12B annual revenue.
- Suggests this is an overreaction, but reflects market “nerves…fearing ripple effects…reputation issue, perhaps an unwillingness of other companies to do business” with implicated firms.
4. Quick Hits: Market Moves & Notables
[15:57–19:34]
- S&P 500 up 0.5%, NASDAQ up 0.4%, Dow up 0.6%. (16:04)
- Gold futures at $5,023/oz, silver over $109/oz—central banks and investors seek safety amid “geopolitical uncertainty…weaker US Dollar and lower interest rates.” (16:39)
- Nathan’s Famous to be acquired by Smithfield Foods for $450M, at $102/share. Smithfield previously held the license for Nathan’s branded meats; market cheered the move.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On the Brex deal:
“This merger moment is the everything bagel of the market’s focus points—public and private right now.” —Ann, (00:49) -
On Capital One integrating Brex:
“Translating Brexit’s tech platform and turning that into transformation across the sort of older, maybe stodgier, Capital One’s massive scale is a big, big lift.” —Ann, (03:10) -
On VC peak valuations:
“...a concrete sign that those peak Covid valuations are never coming back...a theme that we’re also going to keep on watching on the public side.” —Ann, (04:25) -
On Intel’s struggle:
“Intel has utterly failed to do that so far. Some clients want proof that Intel can deliver not just on the pricing side, but on the quality side. Intel has suffered there reputationally as well, leaving Intel hesitant to spend even more capex on a build out until they have some clients.” —Ann, (10:45) -
On U.S. government investment in Intel:
“Hope, folks, is not a strategy, right?” —Ann, (13:32) -
On Booz Allen’s share price drop:
“You could argue 10% stock drop is an overreaction because its actual revenue amount is sort of a drop in the ocean. Just goes to show how nervous the market gets now when a company upsets the White House.” —Ann, (17:47)
Timestamps for Important Segments
- [00:02] — Episode begins, main topics preview
- [00:40–05:17] — Deep dive: Capital One x Brex acquisition
- [06:04–14:10] — Deep dive: Intel’s earnings, manufacturing, and government stake
- [16:52–18:26] — Booz Allen Hamilton’s Treasury contract loss and market reaction
- [16:04–16:51] — Market wrap: S&P, NASDAQ, Dow, Gold/Silver update
- [18:26–18:56] — Nathan’s Famous acquisition news
Tone and Style
Ann Berry and John use an accessible yet incisive tone, balancing investor-focused analysis with relatable asides. The language is clear, context-rich, and occasionally witty.
Summary Takeaways
- Capital One’s Brex deal signals late-pandemic “unicorn” valuation haircuts are here to stay, with deep implications for both legacy financials and venture investors caught in late-stage rounds.
- Intel’s ongoing saga reflects not just classic supply/demand woes, but the deeper struggles of executing on transformative manufacturing bets—even with taxpayer backing. Execution, not just investment, is now under the microscope.
- Booz Allen’s PR crisis offers a lesson in market psychology: reputational hits can have outsized near-term impacts, regardless of true financial exposure.
The episode digs below headline earnings to illuminate the structural pressures, investor sentiment shifts, and execution challenges shaping today’s markets.