Brew Markets: Costco Tariff Refund Lawsuit & Retail Earnings Roll-Call
Podcast: Brew Markets (Morning Brew) | Host: Ann Berry | Date: March 12, 2026
Episode Overview
In today’s episode, host Ann Berry dives into two main themes:
- The escalating legal battle over tariff refunds, featuring a class action lawsuit that puts Costco’s handling of tariff rebates under the microscope
- A high-energy “ticker on a sticker” roll call of retail earnings, highlighting Dollar General, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, Petco, and Dick’s Sporting Goods
The episode also touches on fresh news from Lucid Motors’ acceleration toward profitability, Nintendo’s unexpected Pokémon hit, and Bumble’s AI-fueled surge on Wall Street. Berry and her producer John Croteau employ lively banter and in-depth analysis to parse what these market moves mean for investors.
1. The Little Guys Strike Back: Costco Tariff Refund Lawsuit
[00:29 - 06:00]
Background: Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs
- Illinois-based Learning Resources Inc. succeeded in challenging Trump-era tariffs, with the Supreme Court ruling broad levies under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) illegal.
- The ruling impacts about 60% of prior tariffs, creating a potential $160 billion in refunds for U.S. businesses.
The David v. Goliath Turn: Costco in the Crosshairs
- A new class action suit filed by Illinois Costco member Matthew Stockhov asks: If businesses get tariff refunds, shouldn't customers also get compensation for higher prices they paid due to those tariffs?
- Costco's stance:
- CEO Ron Vacra (Dec. 2025 earnings call): “We're going to do everything we can to mitigate tariff impacts, and last effect would be we pass on price. And if we do that, we're going to be the last one to go up and always the first one to go down.” [~03:20]
- March 5, 2026 call: Costco “did not pass the full cost [of tariffs] on to our members.” Admitted some costs likely did reach customers.
Challenges and Implications
- Tracing Refunds: Hard to determine how much of any future refund is owed to customers, especially when companies used cost-mitigation strategies (e.g., Kirkland Signature products, supply chain adjustments).
- Costco’s Promise: If it receives refunds, it pledges to return “value to members through lower prices and better deals” in the future—but not direct cash refunds, as the lawsuit demands.
- Legal Insight:
- “Plaintiff ... says that this promise isn't enough, arguing that future discounts do not reimburse customers who have already shelled out by paying more.” [05:03]
- Legal experts predict more consumer-targeted refund suits as businesses seek their refunds.
Market Reaction
- Costco shares “up slightly today despite the suit. … Investors are standing by the relative safety represented by Costco’s 90% global membership renewal rate.” [~05:40]
2. Retail Earnings Roll Call: “Ticker on a Sticker”
[06:36 - 16:56]
Ann and producer John role-play as retail giants, explaining earnings “in the voice” of each company.
Format: Company intro, headline figures, key moves, and color commentary.
a) Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
[07:10]
- Acquired Foot Locker last year; net sales $6.2B for Q4, $14B for FY2025.
- “Revenue is up 60%, but ... two thirds from Dick's, one third from Foot Locker. Excluding Foot Locker, comp sales up 3.1% YOY.”
- Guidance is soft due to costs integrating Foot Locker; “stock bounced around ... nearly flat year over year.”
Berry’s Take:
“When the deal was announced ... Dick's dropped like a rock while we saw Footlocker shoot on up ... the heavy lift of turning around a sluggish brand is expensive and takes bandwidth and culture, not just money.” [~08:27]
b) Petco (“woof”)
[09:13]
- Down 2.2% YOY in net sales, same store sales down 1.6%.
- Stock rallied up to 35% on “clear communication of a three-phase turnaround.”
- CEO Joel Anderson: “We believe our ability to gain market share is not entirely reliant on a cooperative macro environment or pet industry sales growth.” [10:55]
- Turnaround tactics: leadership changes, cost-cutting, focus on high-margin pet services and fresh pet food, more Petco-branded products, and in-store experience upgrades.
c) Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
[12:32]
- Net sales: ~$780M (+17% YOY); EPS: $1.39 (+16% YOY); opened 86 new stores in 2025
- Unique soft-opening strategy for new stores to “give staff less stress ... and open more stores.”
- "Ollie's Army" loyalty program added 17M new members (+23%).
- Stock up 3.25% today, nearly 5% YOY.
Side note: Ann highlights Ollie’s quirky comic-style website and strong focus on extreme value.
d) Dollar General (DG)
[14:47]
- Market cap: $30B, nearly 21,000 stores.
- Q4 net sales: $11B, same-store sales up 2%, dollar item sales up 18%.
- Weak guidance due to vulnerability in consumer sentiment (“thin margins ... vulnerable to ... higher gas prices ... less discretionary income for my core base”).
- Honest self-critique: “Walk around [Dollar General], experience is frankly a little bit glum and uninspiring. ... Stack it high and let it roll.” [16:35]
- Stock was “worst performer in the S&P 500 today, down over 6%.”
3. Lucid Motors: The Race to Profitability
[18:13 - 23:31]
Key Announcements from Investor Day
- Lucid is “accelerating to profitability” with updates on midsize models, subscription revenue, and a robotaxi fleet.
- Lucid’s numbers (John): Net loss $2.7B (2025), 16,000 vehicles delivered (+55%), 2026 guidance 25-27K vehicles.
“For context, Tesla manufactures over 1.5M vehicles, so these are widely different numbers.” [18:46]
Affordability & Scaling Up
- New models will start below $50,000, targeting average U.S. new car buyers.
- “Production is set to begin later this year ... but the market is still not ... seeing visibility to the scale needed to make these economically viable.” [20:40]
- Shares dropped 7% during the update.
Subscription and Robotaxi
- Recurring-revenue from self-driving features ($69–$199/month), copying Tesla’s move to subscription pricing.
- “Lucid is forecasting about $1 billion in annual non-vehicle revenue by late in the decade.” [21:16]
- Unveiled Luna, a two-seat robotaxi for fleets, expanding Uber partnership to include new midsize models.
Company Changes & Marketing
- Company cut 12% of its workforce recently; pursuing efficiency.
- Signed Timothée Chalamet as brand ambassador (“There it was, Timmy's face on my feed.” [22:57])
- “Shares ... down around 7% today, down over 50% year over year. The market needs to see proof of concept.” [23:31]
4. Market Headlines
[24:19 - 25:54]
Nintendo Soars on Pokémon Surprise
- Nintendo shares up almost 2% today, 18% this week after “Pokémon Poke Opia,” a new exclusive game, sold 2.2M units in four days—4th best-selling on Switch 2.
- Hope: Pokémon smash hit will drive more console sales.
Bumble Bounces Back
- Shares surged 36% after earnings beat Wall Street expectations—“long awaited” in the struggling online dating industry.
- Bumble releases new AI chatbot (“Bee”) acting as a personal matchmaker, “helping users find more compatible matches.”
Notable Quotes & Moments
“If companies get that $160 billion of tariff refund money back, should customers get some of it too?”
— Ann Berry [02:45]
“We're going to do everything we can to mitigate tariff impacts, and ... we’re going to be the last one to go up and always the first one to go down.”
— Ron Vacra, Costco CEO (quoted by Ann Berry) [~03:20]
“Walk around [Dollar General], experience is frankly a little bit glum and uninspiring ... stack it high and let it roll.”
— Ann Berry as “Dollar General” [16:35]
“We believe our ability to gain market share is not entirely reliant on a cooperative macro environment ... We are going to take control of our own destiny.”
— Joel Anderson, Petco CEO (quoted by Ann Berry) [10:55]
“Just a ton of activity ... the market needs to see proof of concept.”
— Ann Berry on Lucid Motors [23:31]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [00:29] — Tariff refund lawsuit overview (Costco and Learning Resources)
- [03:00] — Costco CEO’s stance on tariff impacts & member value
- [07:10] — Dick’s Sporting Goods earnings recap
- [09:13] — Petco’s turnaround and fresh pet food push
- [12:32] — Ollie’s Bargain Outlet expansion and loyalty program
- [14:47] — Dollar General’s value strategy and challenges
- [18:13] — Lucid Motors Investor Day: profitability, new models, robotaxi news
- [24:19] — Market wrap: Nintendo’s Pokémon hit and Bumble’s rebound
Conclusion
This episode delivers a fast-paced and insightful breakdown of shifting winds in retail, legal battles over tariffs, and emerging tech in autos and AI. Key takeaways: the legal aftershocks of tariff refunds may echo through the retail sector, value and turnaround stories are central to retail, and big bets on tech (auto subscriptions, AI matchmaking) are reshaping how companies approach growth in tough markets.
Berry’s tone mixes “nerd-out” financial detail with accessible metaphors and good humor, making complex headline stories immediately actionable for listeners and investors alike.