Brew Markets — January 7, 2026

Episode Title: Discord Enters Hot IPO Pipeline & Egg Prices Fell - Stay CALM
Host: Ann Berry (with Producer John Krato)
Theme:
A tightly packed episode unpacking the intensifying IPO market (with Discord in the spotlight), the real story behind falling egg prices and Cal-Maine Foods’ volatility, and the outsized impact of a flurry of policy posts by President Trump that sent shockwaves through defense, real estate, and airline stocks.

1. The 2026 IPO Boom: Discord’s Entry and the Investor “Dash for Cash”

Summary:
Ann Berry breaks down a surge in planned IPOs for 2026, highlighting Discord’s confidential filing and a broader private investor rush to go public amid record equity market highs and falling interest rates. Berry explores the pressures building up on private companies and their backers to cash out, especially after a lackluster 2025 for IPOs.

Key Points & Insights:

• Discord’s confidential IPO filing (00:53):
  Discord follows the likes of SpaceX (contemplating a $30B IPO at a $1.5T valuation), and other major players like Anthropic, Databricks, Ramp, Deel, and Kraken eyeing 2026 debuts.
• Why now?
  • Venture funds under decade-long holding periods are under pressure—investors want liquidity with market valuations high.
  • “Discord is now 10 years old and SpaceX took Inventure money as long ago as 2008.” — Ann Berry (02:05)
• 2025 was weak for IPOs:
  • Only 34 venture-backed IPOs, far below the 10-year average of 70 (02:40).
  • Factors: Market uncertainty post-Liberation Day tariffs, government shutdowns, and terrible first-day trading drops for names like Figma (“stock soared immediately... but was trading back down in the 30s by November” — 03:17).
• The lockup factor:
  Private investors want IPOs early in a bull run to beat the 6-month lockup period and avoid a downcycle when finally free to sell (04:10).
• It’s not just tech:
  • Barnes & Noble (hedge fund Elliott Management) and Medtronic’s MiniMed spinoff: Non-tech firms also lining up for IPOs (04:35).
  • Notable stat: Blackstone and Carlyle took Medline public in 2025, raising $6B (05:07).
• Private equity exit urgency:
  PE-owned firms are “racing toward any IPO window they can to get out now—all assuming, of course, that the markets don’t crack first.” — Ann Berry (05:20)

2. Cracking Earnings: Egg Prices, Cal-Maine Foods, and Changing Consumer Habits

Summary:
The hosts dissect the quarterly results of Cal-Maine Foods, America’s largest egg supplier, as a lens to understand volatility in food commodities, consumer health trends, and how companies weather sharp swings in revenue.

Key Discussion Points:

• Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) — Earnings Recap (06:01):
  • Market cap: $3.6B
  • Q’s earnings: $2.13/share (beat estimates), but down from $4.47/share YoY.
  • Net sales: $770M (down 19% YoY), Gross profit: $207M (down 42%)
  • Stock down 5.5% on the day, and over 30% in four months (06:39, 08:48).
• On the irony of “CALM” ticker:
  “The most misleading ticker I could possibly imagine for this kind of business given volatility.” — John Krato (07:00)
• Egg price rollercoaster:
  • Dozen eggs jumped to $6.23 (March 2025), then dropped to ~$3 after avian flu crisis (08:18).
  • Cal-Maine’s biosecurity = smaller supply interruptions, so outsized gains during supply crunches.
• Analyst perspective:
  • Despite volatility, some analysts targeting $96–$100/share, citing Cal-Maine’s pivot to specialty eggs (organic, cage-free, pasture-raised) (09:00–09:46).
  • “Analysts have actually maintained a bit of a higher price target… because… [of] moving to higher margin, what they call specialty eggs.” — John Krato (09:45)
• Consumer health shifts and the new food pyramid:
  • “RFK Jr. came out with a sort of a new food pyramid... and there right in the middle is the wonderful edible egg.” — Ann Berry (10:40)
  • Less focus on carbs, more on protein and whole foods, as part of the new “real food initiative.”
• Prepared/protein-rich foods:
  • “Prepared foods sales [at Cal-Maine] were $72M of their quarter and that was up 586% year over year.” — Ann Berry (11:59)
  • Rising demand linked to GLP-1 medications (weight loss/diabetes drugs) boosting protein cravings.
  • “You’re getting the GLP-1 folks eating the actual eggs and maybe folks looking for convenience eating these processed eggs.” — Ann Berry (12:28)
• Egg prices as a gauge of economic reality:
  • Reference to how politicians’ knowledge (or not) of staple prices, like eggs or bananas, is used as a “cost-of-living” litmus test (13:03–13:30).
  • One in four U.S. homes now investor-owned—linked to food affordability and broader cost of living challenges (19:26).

3. Policy Shocks: Presidential Social Media Posts Move Markets

Summary:
The show pivots to President Trump’s flurry of posts affecting defense contractors and the real estate market.

Key Segments & Quotes:

a. Defense Stocks — Dividends & Buybacks Targeted

• Trump’s post-imposed ban on defense dividends and buybacks:
  • “President Trump posted to say he will, quote, not permit defense companies to issue dividends or stock buybacks until firms… address complaints...” — John Krato (15:52)
  • Citing issues like “exorbitant or unjustifiable executive pay packages” and slow equipment production. — Ann Berry (16:24)
  • Market reacted sharply: General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman all dropped ~2% (15:33).
  • “After decades of dividends… this would be a recharacterization of one of the fundamental bases upon which these stocks trade.” — John Krato (16:40)
  • Unclear what legal authority the President has, but the market is spooked.

b. Institutional Investors & Housing Policy

• Ban on institutional home…
  • “Trump said he plans to outline additional housing and affordability proposals in a speech in Davos, Switzerland in two weeks.” — Ann Berry (17:53)
  • Blackstone stock fell 5% despite owning <1% of homes in most markets; Invitation Homes and AMH also down (20:51).
  • “One in four homes are currently owned by investors… a point of real political contention…” — Ann Berry, referencing guest CEO stats from Caldwell Banker Realty (19:26).

4. Travel Stocks Highlight: Alaska Airlines and the Battle for the Premium Flyer

Summary:
A lighter segment with a side of loyalty, upgrades, and air travel market strategy.

Key Points:

• Alaska Airlines places its largest ever order:
  • 105 Boeing 737 MAX 10 jets. Alaska Air (ALK) shares down 1.5%; Boeing (BA) up 1% intraday, closed lower (21:21).
• Frequent flyer wars:
  • “All of the airlines now really focusing on… the premium flyer.” — John Krato (21:41)
  • American Airlines offering steady loyalty requirements and—at last—free WiFi for loyalty members (22:49).
  • “My bug bear is… American has been incredibly expensive [for WiFi]. So thank you, American Airlines, for doing this. The market thinks so too; shares… up 3% today.” — John Krato (23:07)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Discord is now 10 years old and SpaceX took Inventure money as long ago as 2008.” — Ann Berry (02:05)
• “The most misleading ticker I could possibly imagine for this kind of business given volatility.” — John Krato, on Cal-Maine’s “CALM” ticker (07:00)
• “RFK Jr. came out with a sort of a new food pyramid ... and there right in the middle is the wonderful edible egg.” — Ann Berry (10:40)
• “One in four homes are currently owned by investors.” — Ann Berry referencing Caldwell Banker Realty CEO (19:26)
• “After decades of dividends… this would be a recharacterization of one of the fundamental bases upon which these stocks trade.” — John Krato, on Trump’s defense sector announcement (16:40)
• “My bug bear is… American has been incredibly expensive [for WiFi]. So thank you, American Airlines, for doing this.” — John Krato (23:07)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:00 — Discord enters IPO pipeline; broader IPO trends
• 06:01 — Cal-Maine Foods financials and business fundamentals
• 08:09 — Egg price collapse, avian flu, and market share impacts
• 10:40 — “Real food” initiative, new food pyramid, and specialty egg demand
• 13:03 — Eggs, banana prices, and political optics
• 15:33 — Defense stocks drop after Trump’s posts
• 17:53 — Ban on institutional homebuyers, real estate impact
• 21:14 — Airline orders, loyalty wars, and the battle for premium customers
• 22:49 — Free WiFi and American Airlines' share price reaction

Conclusion

This episode deftly connects the dots between public market exuberance, consumer behavior shifts, corporate results, and bold political policy—each with direct investor consequences. IPO heat, the price of eggs, government posts sending stocks tanking—nothing stays “calm,” despite the tickers.
A must-listen for investors and observers keen to understand how headlines become hard market moves.