Does OpenAI’s AMD Deal Signal a Bubble? & Who Is Watching “Prediction Markets”

Summary

Brew Markets Daily – Does OpenAI’s AMD Deal Signal a Bubble? & Who Is Watching “Prediction Markets”

Date: October 6, 2025
Host: Ann Berry
Producer/Co-host: John Croteau

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Overview

In this episode of Brew Markets Daily, Ann Berry breaks down headline market stories focused on the AI sector’s latest megadeal—OpenAI’s purchase agreement with AMD—and examines whether this signals a larger AI-driven market bubble. The episode also dives into Reddit’s recent stock volatility and the growing use of prediction markets, especially around the government shutdown. Financial news, stock reactions, and listener questions round out the show.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Circular AI Money Flows: OpenAI, Nvidia, AMD, and the Bubble Debate

[00:32 – 05:00]

• OpenAI’s Megadeal with AMD:

  • OpenAI agrees to buy 6 gigawatts worth of AMD’s chips, with the deal worth expected tens of billions for AMD, beginning 2026.
  • In exchange, OpenAI may receive up to 10% of AMD’s equity, contingent on share price and deployment milestones.

• Circular Funding:

  • Nvidia just provided OpenAI a $100 billion investment and now, those funds help OpenAI purchase chips from Nvidia’s key competitor, AMD.
  • Nvidia also seeks a stake in Intel, which in turn hopes to make AMD its first major foundry customer, underscoring “everyone is in everyone else’s deals”.

• Is This a Bubble?

  • Ann Berry describes it as a “somewhat uncomfortable circular chapter,” noting risk of overvaluation and systemic risk.
  • Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) and Jeff Bezos have both suggested elements of a current AI “bubble,” but emphasize longer-term gains will outweigh short-term pain.
  • Contrasting opinions: Hedge funders like Paul Tudor Jones (“It feels like 1999” [03:27]) and Ray Dalio see echoes of the dot-com era. Tech analysts like Dan Ives insist it’s the start of genuine structural change.

• Market Reaction:

  • AMD stock jumped over 25%; Nvidia only moved under 1%—suggesting AMD’s new credibility as an AI chip contender.
  • Goldman Sachs report warns of “potentially dilutive” impacts from these circular investments but remains bullish ([04:45]).
  • “That really is a sign of Nvidia’s scale—barely a nudge down in share price... market cap over $4.5 trillion.” (Ann Berry, [04:56])

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2. Reddit’s Market Jitters: AI Licensing, Data Visibility, and Platform Risks

[05:17 – 12:44]

• Stock Drop & Reason:

  • Reddit’s share price fell over 10% last week, triggered by research showing a drop in Reddit content being cited in ChatGPT responses: “as of Tuesday last week, Reddit content was cited in just 2% of ChatGPT responses, down from about 10% the prior month and 14% earlier in September.” (Ann Berry, [08:22])

• Partnership Deals:

  • Google pays Reddit ~$60M/year; OpenAI is rumored to pay $60–70M/year for data access ([06:32]). Deals struck in early/mid-2024 after IPO.

• Platform Competitive Threats:

  • Reddit’s annual report flags major rivals (Google, Meta, Wikipedia, etc.) and highlights the existential risk from LLMs that may “draw users toward their products or services and away from ours.”
  • “Redditors may choose to find information using LLMs... which may have been trained using Reddit content instead of visiting Reddit directly.” (Reddit Annual Report, cited by Ann Berry, [07:15])

• The Core Risk:

  • 50% of users come to Reddit for community engagement; 50% just want questions answered—"using it as sort of a search engine now.” (John Croteau, [09:01])
  • As Google and ChatGPT increasingly summarize rather than link, Reddit’s data becomes less visible—potentially a “Faustian pact”.
  • Concern that these deals may give AI the data it needs, then make platforms like Reddit and Etsy redundant: “Are Reddit and Etsy signing deals that send them into obscurity?” (Ann Berry, [11:34])
  • Broader resonance for any platform monetizing user-generated data when LLMs become the primary interface.

• Reddit’s Response:

  • Efforts to make the site more welcoming, expand internationally with translation, and clamp down on bots to preserve authenticity.

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3. Listener Q&A: How Prediction Markets Work

[13:40 – 16:49]

• What Are Prediction Markets?
  Listener Question from Greg in Baltimore ([13:42])

• Ann’s Explanation:

  • “Prediction markets provide event contracts that allow users to place bets on real world outcomes, from Oscar nominations to NFL games to yes, how long the shutdown will last.” ([13:54])
  • Robinhood entered this space in March, reporting over 2 billion event contracts in Q3 (100% Q/Q growth).
  • Contracts represent binary outcomes (e.g., “Shutdown lasts 10 days”): buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ at prices from $0.01–$0.99, with payoff structure making odds explicit (e.g., yes at $0.70 = 70% implied odds).

• Regulatory and Practical Obstacles:

  • “Regulators worry these represent just good old fashioned gambling by another name, especially when it comes to political or sports outcomes... Robinhood’s foray is already facing lawsuits in states like Massachusetts.” ([15:11])
  • Despite hurdles, economists and traders find prediction markets to be useful sentiment tools.

• Current Shutdown Odds (as of late October 5):

  • Kalshi: Odds for shutdown lasting >15 days: 64%, >20 days: 50%, >25 days: 40%. ([16:12])
  • Polymarket: Odds for shutdown lasting 30+ days: 29%.

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4. Market Wrap: End-of-Day Quick Hits

[17:03 – 17:40]

• Market Movers:

  • Critical Metals up 40% on news of possible Trump admin backing
  • Tesla up nearly 5% after cryptic product teaser for possible new affordable EV model
  • Verizon down 5% after naming ex-Paypal CEO Dan Schulman as new chief

• Ann Berry teases further analysis on Verizon: “Not yet sure whether it’s a way of saying we’re sad to see the old CEO go or a way of saying we’re not super excited about the new one or both...” ([17:41])

• Bank Merger Announcement:

  • Fifth Third to acquire Comerica for just under $11B, creating a top 10 U.S. bank (“the largest in nearly three years...”) ([18:20])

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Notable Quotes

• On the AI Circular Economy:

  • “It seems to be happening with a lot of the same key players. So let’s just follow the money.” – Ann Berry ([02:10])
  • “Nvidia agrees to give OpenAI cash. Cash is fungible, and it’s now making its way to a rival. Nvidia feasibly ends up owning, through its stake in OpenAI, a stake in AMD.” – Ann Berry ([02:19])

• On Bubble Warnings:

  • “Sam Altman warned in August that he believes so, a sentiment he reiterated last week... And there he is, at the eye of the storm...” – Ann Berry ([02:45])
  • “It feels like 1999.” – Paul Tudor Jones, quoted by Ann Berry ([03:27])

• Reddit’s Existential Risk:

  • “Redditors may choose to find information using LLMs which... may have been trained using Reddit content instead of visiting Reddit directly.” – Reddit Annual Report, cited at [07:34]
  • “Are Reddit and Etsy signing deals that send them into obscurity? We’d love to hear what you think...” – Ann Berry ([11:43])

• On Prediction Markets:

  • “Prediction markets provide event contracts that allow users to place bets on real world outcomes... The outcome is binary.” – Ann Berry ([13:54])
  • “The theory is that people who put money on the line have thought carefully about the information available...” – Ann Berry ([15:34])

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• AI Bubble and Mega-Deals: 00:32–05:00
• Reddit’s AI Tricky Spot: 05:17–12:44
• Prediction Markets Explainer: 13:40–16:49
• Market Closing Headlines: 17:03–17:40
• Banking Merger News: 17:41–18:55

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Tone & Style

Consistently sharp, energetic, and lightly skeptical—Ann Berry delivers clear analysis while actively questioning consensus narratives and highlighting both industry excitement and underlying risks.

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Summary Takeaways

• The AI sector’s latest deals are raising flags about market “circularity” and bubble concerns, even as participants position for long-term growth.
• Data providers like Reddit face existential questions as AI products potentially usurp their value, despite (or because of) lucrative licensing deals.
• Prediction markets are becoming more mainstream and closely tracked—even as regulation and controversy swirl—offering real-time sentiment data for intricate events like the government shutdown.
• News-driven volatility and major M&A continue to shape broader market dynamics, with retail investors and institutions weighing both headline risk and underlying shifts.

Transcript

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[Ann Berry]

Reddit stock price takes a hit on fears that the partnership with OpenAI may drain the online community. We break it down. Bond traders are looking at prediction markets to deduce the likely length of this government shutdown. So how do these new markets work? We answer your question and round and round the AI money goes. Today's open air deal with AMD for Monday, October6, it's Brew Markets Daily and I'm Ann Berry. More market details to come. But first, when Nvidia announced a $100 billion investment in OpenAI just last month, we said on the show that this felt like a new, somewhat uncomfortable circular chapter with a chip giant signing up to pump cash into, well, its biggest customer. On Friday, I interviewed the CEO of Applied Digital to debate the sense of circularity with data cent centers, which applied builds being constructed using debt backed by contracts with the likes of yes, OpenAI now pulling debt into the AI circular funding flows. Check out that full episode. It was a great conversation. And today OpenAI announced that despite agreeing to take cash from Nvidia, the chat GPT giant will buy 6 gigawatts worth of AMD's chips for an undisclosed, though expected, tens of billions of dollars in revenue for AMD starting in 2026. In return, OpenAI will receive up to about 10% of AMD's equity, subject to the share price rising and OpenAI hitting certain deployment milestones. There's a lot going on and it seems to be happening with a lot of the same key players. So let's just follow the money. Nvidia agrees to give OpenAI cash. Cash is fungible and it's now making its way to a rival. Nvidia feasibly ends up owning, through its stake in OpenAI, a stake in AMD. Oh, and by the way, Nvidia is taking a stake in intel, which is now hoping its first major foundry customer is, yes, amd. So is all of the circularity a symptom of a bigger issue? Are we in an AI bubble? Well, Sam Altman warned in August that he believes so A sentiment he reiterated last week. And he there he is at the eye of the storm, by the way, sitting there as CEO of OpenAI. And then Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said just a few days ago that he thinks AI is in a quote, industrial bubble, a moment of hype and overvaluation where all ideas, whether good or bad, get funding. Now both kind of shrugged off the bubble itself in terms of a concept, focusing instead on the long term gains of AI, while acknowledging that there may just be some short term pain to come for some hoping of course, it's not them now that's the AI guys themselves. Then there's the financial bubble veterans who lived through the dot com boom. Then bust hedge fund investor Paul Tudor Jones said this morning that, quote, it feels like 1999. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio echoed that sentiment back in January and the markets are well up since then. So the debate on whether there's a bubble keeps on raging. And taking the other side of the side of the coin, your influential voices in tech investing like Dan Ives who we interviewed here a few weeks ago, insisting that this isn't a bubble, it's just the start of structural change. Meanwhile, zooming back into the news today, AMD stock popped up more than 25% on the OpenAI announcement as the market now sees it as a really credible challenger to AI chip maker Nvidia, who saw its stock move just under 1% in response. Now on Nvidia, a new report came out on the name from Goldman Sachs and I wanted to just pick out some headlines from that report, which came out just after midnight last night. The analyst says, quote, we view potential as circular revenue from strategic investments as potentially dilutive to Nvidia's multiple. But the report ultimately concludes that, quote, we are comfortable in risk rewards, that a circular deal represents less than 15% of revenue in 2027. So that really is a sign of Nvidia's scale barely a nudge down in share price. In response to the news today, market cap over four and a half trillion dollars, one that we will keep watching now. Coming up, ChatGPTs use Reddit to train its models. So why is Reddit now disappearing from the app's search results and prediction markets? What are they and what do they tell us about the government shutdown? But first, a word from our sponsor capital client group. Now our producer John and I were talking about some other podcasts that we listen to.

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[John Croteau]

Right, okay, so Reddit was founded in 2005 and IPO'd in March of 2024. And since then, the share price has been up over 340% with a current market cap of $40 billion. And so when we're talking about Reddit And Google and ChatGPT, these are all partnerships that have been happening since 2024, the Google Deals. Google is paying Reddit about $60 million a year to train its AI on the community. And OpenAI is rumored to be paying about 60 to 70 million dollars a year for the ability to train on the community.

[Ann Berry]

Got it. So these two key deals were struck. Google's was struck in March of 2024. OpenAI's followed right in May 2024. So I nodded out on this. I went back to look at the 2024 Annual Report and see what Reddit had to say about how things. And they didn't say a lot, but there was just some language lurking in there which I just wanted to flag because it, it may actually be prescient. So first of all, Reddit said that it really does compete in what we now call the attention economy. It's competing for users eyeballs. And it goes on to say, John, direct quote, we compete against many companies that provide content and communication services to online users, including Google Meta, including Facebook, Instagram threads and WhatsApp, YouTube, Wikipedia. I thought that was interesting. Snap X, Pinterest, TikTok, Roblox Discord and Twitch. It then goes on to say in Reddit's annual report, again, so this is the end of 2024, after they've struck these deals with Google and open AI. The annual report goes on to say, one risk is quote, our competitors may draw users towards their products or services and away from ours. In addition, we face competition from large language models such as those built by Google, Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic. Redditors may choose to find information using LLMs, which in some cases may have been trained using Reddit content instead of visiting Reddit directly. So John, I read this, right, written at the end of last year, I see the stock dropped 10% last week precisely because this data comes out. So I'm going to pull up the data. I've got it in front of me. And there was a search engine tracker, an AI search engine tracker called Prompt Watch, which basically said as of Tuesday last week, Reddit content was cited in just 2% of chat GPT responses, right? Down from about 10% the prior month and down from a peak earlier in September of 14%. So I just want to point out this is a very teeny tiny right, sample size. It was just one period of time, but it was enough to get the alarm bells ringing. And it was almost as though the market said, wait a minute, we need to go, go back to the annual report, see what risk Reddit have flagged and lo and behold, they found it.

[John Croteau]

Right? And that is the big risk for Reddit. They need to be able to continue to grow their community, otherwise there won't be anything to scrape. They knew they need new members having active conversations on there. And the company said that about 50% of its daily users are going to Reddit to be part of the community and the other 50% about are just coming to get a question answered. They're using it as sort of a.

[Ann Berry]

Search engine now on the search engine front. So we and I talked about this in a prior show. One of the concerns that Reddit has had in its deal with Google is Reddit recently has been flexing, right, and saying we're not getting enough money for the deal that we have with Google, which is about $60 million of revenue a year you set up at the top.

[John Croteau]

That's right.

[Ann Berry]

And one of the concerns is that now if you go into Google and you look for, you type, go into the search engine and you put in your question instead of just getting links to the answers, now we're getting an AI summary, right, which sort of obscures some of that source data. It's just not as immediately obvious as it used to be in the good old days of search, before ChatGPT. And the issue now that seems to be flagged with this report is, well, it feels like that on steroids when it comes to ChatGPT, where Reddit potentially has provided answers through the scraping of IT data, but it's totally invisible to the user right now.

[John Croteau]

Right. And also the community members might feel like, why aren't we getting paid?

[Ann Berry]

Right.

[John Croteau]

You know, so that might eventually hurt the community. And what Reddit is trying to do is they're trying to make their site more welcoming, easier to get in, because they want users that log in, that, that engage.

[Ann Berry]

Right.

[John Croteau]

And so they're trying to make it easier to get in. They're also expanding internationally, so they're to have translation so they can get more data from around the world, local, all around the globe. And they're also trying to prevent bots because there's also been talk on Reddit that are these really users having real conversations? Or perhaps they're bots going on and talking to one another, which means that the community loses validation and is also no use to OpenAI.

[Ann Berry]

Right. The authenticity, that sort of realness of human interaction. Well, the reason that this caught our eye wasn't just the fact that a 10% drop in one day for stock is pretty meaningful. When John and I were talking, talking about this, it feels as though this is really getting to the heart almost of an existential question.

[John Croteau]

Yes.

[Ann Berry]

Not only for Reddit, but for another stock that we covered last week, which is Etsy. Etsy recently signed a deal along with Shopify, again with OpenAI, so that if you go into chat GPT and say, I want to buy a photo frame from Etsy, you'll literally get a link to a specific product and can purchase it with pretty much one or two clicks on the spot. And the question that we're raising, and this is, is this going to be a Faustian pact? Right. Have Etsy and Reddit struck deals with ChatGPT? Will Chat GPT or sort of OpenAI, sorry, come in and scrape all the data and get all the learnings it needs to train its models. And if Reddit and Etsy doesn't produce new information fast enough, then they're going to become redundant because everything that they need to provide, which is data and insight into human communications, is going to disappear. So we're going to keep watching this one. It really is. You go, you strike a deal, you get the money in, but does it come back to bite you? Are Reddit and Etsy signing deals that send them into obscurity? We'd love to hear what you think, so let us know. This one's going to keep coming up. We've got media folks trying to sign deals and licensing agreements with OpenAI. We've got this kind of issue with social media. It's just going to get to be a bigger and bigger issue over time. We're going to take a quick break and when we come back, I answer your question about prediction markets. Brew Markets Daily is sponsored by Public, the platform for those who take investing seriously. Public combines a wide range of asset classes with the tools you need to build and manage your wealth, whether it's with stocks, options, bonds or crypto.

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[Ann Berry]

John, we have a question from the audience.

[John Croteau]

That's right, Greg in Baltimore wrote Ann, I've heard that in prediction markets people are betting on how long the government shutdown will last. What does that mean?

[Ann Berry]

Thank you Greg. Well, this one is timely for lots of different reasons. Yes, we've got the government shutdown happening right now. It's also timely because we're seeing prediction markets get more mainstream. Just in March, brokerage app Robinhood moved into this area and actually just provided an update revealing massive use of the feature. Prediction markets provide event contracts that allow users to place bets on real world outcomes, from Oscar nominations to NFL games to yes, how long the shutdown will last. Now on September 29th, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev posted on social media that the platform hosted over 2 billion event contracts in Q3. That was 100% growth from 1 billion contracts in Q2. Well, here's how they work each event a statement like The Fed will cut rates in October or the government shutdown will last 10 days is turned into a tradable contract. The outcome is binary. So if you think about these specific statements, if it's true, you buy a yes contract. If you think it won't be true, that it won't happen, you buy a no contract. Now, the price of these contracts sit between $0.01 and $0.99 and ultimately the price reflects the crowd's collective odds. For example, if yes is trading at $0.70, that implies the market believes there's a 70% chance it will happen. If it turns out to be true, those yes contracts pay out a dollar and if not, they're worthless. Now, prediction markets face big hurdles. Regulators worry these represent just good old fashioned gambling by another name, especially when it comes to political or sports outcomes. And one regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the cftc, has clamped down in the past. It's moved along since then, but it does have a history of clamping down and states now are also pushing back. Robinhood's foray is already facing lawsuits in states like Massachusetts where it's fighting attempts to treat its prediction offerings as state regulated gambling. For now, economists, pollsters and even treasury traders do look at prediction markets as a way to measure opinions from highly engaged observers. The theory is that people who put money on the line have thought carefully about the information available with which to craft their opinions, providing insights into sentiment in a more data driven way. Well, I took a quick look to see what some prediction markets indicate about the latest sentiment on the length of this government shutdown. And as of last night, prediction market player Kalshi thought that the shutdown would last almost 21 days, which would tie it with the second longest one in US history on that platform. The odds of the shutdown lasting more than 15 days now at about 64% of lasting more than 20 days now at about 50% odds and the shutdown lasting more than 25 days at about 40% odds doesn't all add up to 100%. So you see the maths of it squarely. Meanwhile, today on prediction market polymarket, the odds of the shutdown lasting 30 or more days has ticked up to 29%. Well, we're going to keep watching to see where the shutdown shakes out and whether the prediction markets really do call it. Stay tuned for more.

[John Croteau]

And if you have a question for Ann, send an email or voice memo to BrewMarketShoworning Broadcom.

[Ann Berry]

Well, it's 4:00pm on the East Coast. There's the bell, the market's closing and we don't have a ticker tape, but we'll throw it over to our human ticker.

[John Croteau]

That's right, the Dow was down about a tenth of a percent. Otherwise, new record highs. The S&P 500 was up 4.10of a percent and the NASDAQ finished up three quarters of a percent. Some market headlines Shares in the company Critical Metals were up over 40% today after a Reuters report that the Trump administration may take a stake in the rare earth miner. And Tesla Stock gained nearly 5% after a teaser video was posted on X over the weekend that hinted that maybe the EV maker may soon unveil a new car, perhaps the affordable model that's been promised for years. And finally, shares in Verizon were down nearly 5% after the company named former PayPal chief executive Dan Schulman as the company's new CEO.

[Ann Berry]

Interesting. We are definitely going to come back, John, to that decline in Verizon share price in response to the new CEO I've been digging into. I'm going to do more homework tonight. Not yet sure whether it's a way of saying we're sad to see the old CEO go or a way of saying we're not super excited about the new one or both. Well, we're going to come back to that after a bit more homework. Well, just a final thought which is this year we have seen the return of M and A came a little bit later in the year than perhaps folks have predicted in January. But we have seen some blockbuster deals. We've seen it in tech. We've seen a mammoth railroad merger. We are seeing retailer tie ups and take privates. So it was finally time for financial services to have its turn. And today it finally came with Fifth Third buying Comerica for just under $11 billion. Now the uniting of the two regional banks will create a top 10 new US bank. And this is pretty exc exciting news because it's been several years since there's been a really large bank acquisition. This one is actually the largest in nearly three years. That's according to S P data. Now it's pretty interesting that it's coming at a time when interest rates are starting to come down and financial services activity in general is picking up. So we have a merger moment due to all of you later this week and this is one where we're going to go through the basics of financial services and what is going on in bank consolidation. That's it for today's Brew Markets Daily.

[John Croteau]

Brew Markets Daily is hosted by Anne Berry and produced by John Croteau, Tarek Abdelatif and Emily Milian. Our technical director is Kelsey Jones and audio assistants by Brittany De Taco. And the president of Morning Brew, Inc. Is Devin Emery.

[Ann Berry]

Wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter and tune in to Neil and Toby on Morning Brew daily. We'll see you back here, folks, tomorrow, same time, same place. Limu Emu and Doug.

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Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us?

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Cut the camera. They see us.

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