Brew Markets: Drilling Down on Global Energy & AI’s Nuclear Ambition vs Risk

Podcast: Brew Markets
Host: Ann Berry
Guest: Alix Steel (Energy communications expert at Drive Path Advisors, former Bloomberg energy reporter)
Date: January 16, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the complexities of the global oil and energy markets, including who's producing and using oil, the shifting landscape due to technological advances and geopolitical events, and the impact of U.S. energy independence. It also explores the future role of renewables and nuclear energy—particularly in the context of AI-driven demand for power—and assesses the political, economic, and market risks of investing in various energy sources. Alix Steel provides insider perspectives, industry insights, and practical analysis for investors and market followers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Understanding the Global Oil Market ([03:09]–[07:19])

• Oil’s Pervasiveness: Alix emphasizes how energy—especially oil and gas—is integral to almost every consumer good and activity.

  • “If you buy anything anywhere or move or turn on your lights, you are a consumer of energy... Oil products are used in your clothes. Like if you buy a T-shirt, you got oil in it.” — Alix Steel [03:15]

• Who Produces Oil?

  • OPEC Plus: Led by Middle Eastern countries (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, not Qatar anymore) along with Russia and others. They coordinate (loosely) around production targets.
    • “They meet every few months...decide as a group if they’re going to increase production, decrease production, or hold it steady. None of this is actually binding, but...” — Alix Steel [04:36]
  • U.S. Shale Revolution: The U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer thanks to advances in extracting oil from shale, overturning decades of Middle Eastern dominance.
    • “Now... the United States is the biggest producer of oil in the entire world, period. Which may surprise many of you.” — Alix Steel [05:22]

• Rising Importance of Latin America: Discovery of low-cost reserves (offshore Brazil, Guyana) is attracting new investment.

Notable Quote

“We basically tapped all this rock, we got all this oil, and then all of a sudden we wind up getting to a place where the super cool, juicy rock, we may be running out of it.”
— Alix Steel [05:48]

2. Oil Grades, Refining & Venezuela’s Role ([09:20]–[13:49])

• Oil Grades: Oil varies in density and quality; what refineries can process depends greatly on this.

  • Venezuelan and Canadian oil is ‘heavy’ and requires specialized refining infrastructure.
  • “Heavy oil can make a lot of products, but it's heavy...You got to mix it with some light stuff in order to move it. And refiners are the guys that do this.” — Alix Steel [09:41]

• U.S. Refining Complex: U.S. refineries (Gulf Coast: Valero, Philips 66, Chevron) are among the few able to handle heavy Venezuelan crude.

• Venezuela’s Investment Risk:

  • Chevron continues in Venezuela, but for new entrants, the risk is extremely high due to political instability, infrastructure issues, and prior expropriation.
  • “For companies that are not in it at all. Godspeed. Not gonna happen. Really.” — Alix Steel [13:03]

• Barriers to Entry: Infrastructure, skilled workforce, break-even costs, and government stability all make Venezuela extremely challenging as an investment.

Notable Quote

“Darren Woods [ExxonMobil CEO] said, ‘We’ve had our assets seized there twice. So you can imagine to reenter a third time would require some pretty significant changes. ... Today it’s uninvestable.’”
— Ann Berry (quoting Woods) [12:00]

3. Oil Prices, Break-Even Costs, & U.S. Impact ([14:31]–[17:15])

• Breakeven Price: The oil price at which extraction is profitable. For many projects, this needs to be above $50–$60/barrel; if prices fall below $40, much production halts.

  • U.S. shale can ramp production up and down more easily than large-scale offshore/exploration projects.
  • “You are not putting any money into the ground at all if oil prices go below $50, period.” — Alix Steel [15:17]

• Winners and Losers:

  • Chevron: Well-positioned due to existing Venezuelan capacity.
  • Refiners processing heavy crude: Big beneficiaries if more Venezuelan oil enters the market.
  • Broader implications: It’s about larger crude flows and overall price structure, not a 1:1 replacement for U.S.-produced oil.

4. Middle Eastern Strategy & Global Flows ([17:15]–[18:56])

• OPEC (Saudi Arabia, et al): Watching and likely to hold back production to wait out market changes.

  • “Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break even...is like over $80. So they’re hurting hard right now with oil in this place.” — Alix Steel [17:30]

• US Shale Struggles: Smaller, private operators are under pressure, feeling “screwed” as prices and demand for expansion remain uncertain.

5. Renewables: Scaling Back and Election Risk ([18:56]–[22:46])

• Oil Majors and Renewables:

  • BP and Shell are actively scaling back renewable investments. U.S. majors (Exxon, Chevron) never diversified as aggressively.
  • “If you’re an oil company and you went somewhere that wasn’t your expertise, BP to solar, right, for example, that’s different. Then you’re putting that on ice...” — Alix Steel [19:11]

• Wind Power Project Cancellations:

  • The Trump administration halts five major offshore wind projects, sparking legal challenges and international concern.
  • Sets a dangerous precedent of “force majeure” risk (typically associated with war-torn countries) now being applied to U.S. energy sector.
    • “That’s really crazy that the US would be responsible for stuff that we usually associate with like Libya.” — Alix Steel [21:38]

6. The Nuclear Moment: AI and Energy ([22:46]–[26:41])

• AI Demand Drives Nuclear Urgency:

  • AI/data centers are fueling massive electricity demand, sparking a boom in interest (and headlines) about nuclear investment.
  • Meta partners with nuclear companies Vistra and Oklo; Oklo shares soar.
  • Consensus: Industry loves nuclear, but building new capacity is glacially slow and risky.
    • “No one's against nuclear. It's just a matter of like getting it done and the price with which you get it done.” — Alix Steel [23:21]
  • Regulatory barriers—permitting and fuel allocation—remain the gating factors.
    • “Permits and fuel allocations...those are the two things that you need. That a lot of companies do not have.” — Alix Steel [25:13]

• Timing:

  • Regulatory streamlining would help, but “even if you fast track it, you’re still talking years.”
  • The “first wave” of AI-fueled demand will rely on natural gas; only the “second wave,” maybe 8 years out, will see nuclear meaningfully contribute.

Notable Quote

“Just because it’s a bubble doesn’t mean nothing...If 100% doesn’t get built, maybe 70% does. 70% is still a lot.”
— Alix Steel [27:19]

7. Risk Allocation & Insurance ([27:41]–[29:10])

• Who Eats the Risk?
  • Project risk needs to be distributed—between insurers, PE, banks, and corporate partners (like Meta).
  • Insurers are rarely discussed publicly, but play a critical role in underwriting these massive, risky projects.
    • “And the insurers are like, please don't talk about me.” — Alix Steel [28:50]

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• “If you buy anything anywhere or move or turn on your lights, you are a consumer of energy…even your T-shirt has oil in it.” — Alix Steel [03:15]
• “The United States is the biggest producer of oil in the entire world, period.” — Alix Steel [05:22]
• “For companies that are not in [Venezuela] at all. Godspeed. Not gonna happen. Really.” — Alix Steel [13:03]
• “No one's against nuclear. It's just a matter of like getting it done and the price with which you get it done.” — Alix Steel [23:21]
• “The oil and gas community desperately doesn't want [the precedent of wind project cancellations]. They desperately want those wind projects to go through so their own assets won’t be in trouble next time.” — Alix Steel [21:37]
• “Just because it's a bubble doesn't mean nothing...70% is still a lot.” — Alix Steel [27:19]
• “Permits and fuel allocations...those are the two things that you need.” — Alix Steel [25:13]
• “And the insurers are like, please don't talk about me.” — Alix Steel [28:50]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:09] – The basics of the global oil market: who’s producing, who’s using, and why it’s so complex
• [04:24] – OPEC, U.S., and new Latin American players
• [09:20] – Oil grades, refinery capabilities, and Venezuela’s strategic importance
• [12:00] – Investment risk in Venezuela (Darren Woods quote)
• [14:31] – Break-even prices and the U.S. production advantage
• [15:46] – Who are the corporate winners and losers of possible market changes?
• [17:15] – Middle Eastern fiscal strategies and U.S. shale struggles
• [18:56] – Oil major’s renewables strategy and the impact of U.S. politics
• [19:47] – The Trump administration halts offshore wind farms: precedent and risk
• [22:46] – The AI-induced nuclear boom and why "nuclear is hard"
• [25:10] – What needs to happen for nuclear energy to scale: permits and fuel
• [27:19] – Is the AI/data center investment bubble "real"?
• [28:36] – The importance of risk allocation among insurance, PE, and banks

Summary

Alix Steel and Ann Berry provided a lively, in-depth exploration of today’s most pressing energy market stories. Topics ranged from global oil production’s geopolitics, the nuances of refinery infrastructure and oil grading, Venezuela’s notorious investment risk, to the impact of fluctuating oil prices and shifting global demand. With AI and data center growth, the conversation pivoted to the future: the challenges and reality-check around scaling nuclear energy, the risks of executive action on renewables, and the vital but overlooked role of insurance in underwriting the sector’s future. Both guests balanced technical details with clarity and approachable energy, making this required listening for investors and energy market novices alike.