Estée Lauder Eyes Puig Merger & Digging Into Critical Material Stocks

Summary

Brew Markets – Episode Summary

Estée Lauder Eyes Puig Merger & Digging Into Critical Material Stocks

Date: March 24, 2026
Host: Ann Berry
Co-Host/Producer: John Coteau

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Overview of the Episode

This episode of Brew Markets, hosted by Ann Berry, zooms in on two major themes:

1. The potential high-stakes merger between beauty giants Estée Lauder (US) and Puig (Spain), dissecting why the market reacted with such volatility and what it could mean for both companies and the industry at large.
2. The state and importance of US-based critical material stocks, focusing on antimony (through United States Antimony Corp.) and uranium (via Uranium Energy Corp.), within the accelerating “critical minerals race.”

The show also includes quick headline spins on FCC regulation impacting home router stocks, a big move by Danone in the protein food space, and FedEx’s latest push in the last-mile delivery wars.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Estée Lauder & Puig: Beauty Merger Moment

Main Segment: 00:32–06:06

Market Moves & Rationale

• Puig stock (ticker: Puig) jumped up to 17% on news of merger talks with Estée Lauder.
• Estée Lauder (EL) shares, struggling post-pandemic, dropped over 10% on the news; they had already fallen more than 20% YTD before this.
• The merger would create a $40bn luxury beauty group—big enough for major synergy in supply chain and distribution, but only if investors are convinced the deal isn’t just “doubling down on a weakness.”
• Key Challenge: Both firms are family-controlled—Puig family holds 77% of shares/90% voting rights, the Lauder family has 80% voting power with a minority stake—making any agreement a negotiation of family legacies and valuations.
• Synergy Potential: Combined entities could realize $20bn in sales—it’s about cost leverage and global reach.
• Merger Uncertainty: Both companies’ official line: “No final decision has been made and no agreement has been reached” (05:21). Caution remains high; investors are wary of overpaying and sacrificing ongoing turnarounds.

Notable Quote:

“The key…is to make sure investors don’t think this is just doubling down on a weakness.”
—Ann Berry, [03:45]

Memorable Fact:

• Ann mentions the origin of Estée Lauder’s La Mer brand:

“…founded in the 1950s by an aerospace physicist looking to heal burns he suffered in a lab accident.”
—Ann Berry, [03:12]

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2. Critical Material Stocks: Antimony & Uranium

Main Segment: 06:06–15:37

United States Antimony (UAMY): Winning the Resource Race

• Only meaningful US producer/refiner of antimony, a mineral critical for flame retardants, batteries, and semiconductors—key for supply chain security.
• “Over 50% of the world’s antimony is mined in China, and China processes up to 90% of it.” —John Coteau, [07:28]
• US Antimony’s 2025 revenue was $39m, up 163% YoY, thanks to a 230% spike in prices.
• Despite losses, a new facility in Montana underpins hope to vertically integrate and lessen reliance on foreign sources.
• The Pentagon’s Defense Logistics Agency is poised to buy up to $245m in antimony from US Antimony—a huge future backstop given current revenue ([09:40]).

Analyst Color:

• Only four niche analysts cover the stock, all call it a buy; targets suggest considerable optimism as shares are up 300% YoY ([10:43]).

Notable Quote:

“That is a massive backstop coming from the Pentagon, really underpinning the future growth of this business.”
—Ann Berry, [09:43]

Uranium Energy Corp (UEC): Betting on the Nuclear Future

• Controls largest US uranium resource base; main mines in Wyoming and Texas.
• $6.4bn market cap. Revenue of $20m in Q2 2026, operating at a loss, but matching analyst expectations.
• Pursues an unhedged strategy, selling at market for maximum upside as uranium prices rise.

“During the quarter, we sold uranium at pricing over 25% of the quarterly average, which demonstrates the advantage of our unhedged approach…”
—Amir Adani (cited by John Coteau), [13:30]

• Macro drivers:
  • Soaring demand for data center energy.
  • Last year uranium was declared a “critical mineral” by the White House.
  • Presidential executive orders aim to quadruple US nuclear capacity by 2050 ([13:50]).
  • Tech giants exploring self-fueling data centers (Oklo as a named startup in the space).

Notable Quote:

“With the increase in demand for data center power, the price of uranium will just keep going up. That’s the thick of it.”
—Ann Berry, [13:50]

Fun Exchange:

• Ann and John riff on the possibility of a Taylor Sheridan-style TV drama about “mineral country”—“I think Wyoming and Montana is due for a critical minerals TV show… Mineral Woman.”

—Ann Berry & John Coteau, [12:31]

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3. Market Headlines Roundup (Rapid Fire)

Main Segment: 16:37–20:55

FCC Ban Boosts Netgear

• Netgear (NTGR) up 16% after the FCC bans certain foreign-made routers for national security; China controls ~60% of US home router market ([16:46]).

Danone Buys Huel in Protein Push

• Danone buys protein shake maker Huel for about €1bn, eyeing younger, health- and protein-focused consumers.
  • Industry is pivoting: General Mills launches high-protein cereals; Nestle launches a GLP-1 weight loss brand; Doritos gets a protein-packed variant.

FedEx: Faster Delivery Race

• FedEx partners with One Rail for two-hour/same-day deliveries, “the race for that last mile.”
• Amazon, Walmart, Target escalating competition for express logistics.

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Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• [03:45] Ann Berry:
  “The key…is to make sure investors don’t think this is just doubling down on a weakness.”

• [07:28] John Coteau:
  “Over 50% of the world’s antimony is mined in China. And China processes up to 90% of it.”

• [09:43] Ann Berry:
  "That is a massive backstop coming from the Pentagon, really underpinning the future growth of this business."

• [12:31–12:36] Lighthearted exchange on a mineral drama:

  • Ann: "I think Wyoming and Montana is due for a critical minerals TV show."
  • John: "Mineral Woman."
  • Ann: "Yes, yes."

• [13:30] John Coteau (quoting UEC CEO):
  “During the quarter, we sold uranium at pricing over 25% of the quarterly average, which demonstrates the advantage of our unhedged approach…”

• [13:50] Ann Berry:
  “With the increase in demand for data center power, the price of uranium will just keep going up. That’s the thick of it.”

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Beauty Merger Analysis: [00:32–06:06]
• Critical Material Stocks:
  • Antimony / US Antimony: [06:06–11:00]
  • Uranium / Uranium Energy Corp: [11:00–15:37]
• Market Headlines: [16:37–20:55]

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Tone & Style Notes

• Conversational, lightly humorous (“mineral TV drama” banter, “digging… pun intended”).
• Provides context for both retail investors and sector-watchers.
• Sticks to insightful, actionable analysis but breezes through with wit and energy.

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Summary

This episode delivers timely and actionable insight into two high-stakes industry battlegrounds—luxury beauty undergoing a potential megamerger, and the geopolitically charged race for control of critical minerals. It pairs deep-dive financial and policy explanation with market takeaways, plus a rapid spin through buzzy corporate headlines in routers, food tech, and logistics. If you’re tracking big cross-border mergers, the supply chain arms race, or today's most-discussed stocks, Brew Markets breaks it down with both clarity and wit.

Transcript

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[Ann Barry]

From Montana to Wyoming, US Companies are digging in to win from the critical minerals race. But other efforts fueling results. An FCC ruling on foreign made routers may shake up your home Wi fi. So we look at one stock that's up on the news and can two wobbly beauty giants be better as one? For this week's merger moment, a potential deal between Estee Lauder and Spanish giant puj. Why one stock popped and the other dropped on the news. We break it all down the Tuesday, March 24th. It's Brum Markets Daily and I'm Ann Berry. More market details to come. But first, if beauty is in the eye of the beholder, Pooj Brands has certainly got it. The stock surged up by as much as 17% today. That was on news that the owner of Charlotte Tilbury is in merger talks with Estee Lauder. Well, the Spanish Poosh and the American beauty giant certainly need to shake things up. Estee Lauder early in a turnaround with shares down more than 20% year to date. That was before the news. And the skincare OG ticker EL, founded in 1946 and with a market cap of $25 billion, has suffered from US share losses both to independent brands. And just a faster moving big competitors like l' Oreal Cosmetics also has seen softness impacting its Bobbi Brown brand. And with about 30% of Estee involving China and travel retail, the company's been particularly hurt by weaker sentiment in those markets, especially in its prestige portfolio, which includes that eponymous Estee brand as well as the iconic one Le Mer, which, fun fact, was founded in the 1950s by an aerospace physicist looking to heal burns he suffered in a lab accident. While added to sales declines and inventory struggles over the past three years has been the impact of tariffs, of course, and the company flagged in February, a hundred million dollar hit to full year profit from trade levies. Meanwhile, Poosh has seen sales grow steadily ever since it went public in 2024 on the Barcelona, Madrid, Bilbao and Valencia stock exchanges under the ticker Puig. And its portfolio spans fragrance, which is a category that's actually enjoyed secular growth, as well as skin care and as well as makeup under brands like Dina, Rishi and Raban. Well, that top line strength has not, though, been enough for Pooj to keep investor concerns about competition at bay. And so if I looked back to Friday before the merger news broke, its stock traded at about €15. Just one year earlier, those shares were at 1750. And if you go back to its IPO in 2024, then the share price was nearly 30% higher. So a merger maybe might save the day for both A deal that could create a $40 billion luxury beauty group with around $20 billion in combined sales, which would suggest meaningful synergies in the supply chain, distribution, leverage and overhead reduction. But the key for that to be the case is to make sure that investors don't think that this is just doubling down on a weakness. Well, from the perspective of puj, those shareholders certainly saw a boon today. That's why the stock was up. And one reason being not just on the potential operating merits of a merger, because the transaction could require a chunky premium to Pooj's valuation just to persuade the Pooj family to give up control after more than a century. Well, the family holds roughly 77% of the European company shares and more than 90% of voting rights. Now, Estee Lauder actually also controlled by a family. The Lauder is holding more than 80% of voting power despite only a minority economic stake. The American company's investors clearly concerned that the standalone turnaround might be sacrificed to get an overpriced deal done. Well, Estee Lauder shares dropped 10% in response to the news. And there is a long way, though for to run for this merger moment. And that's because Estee Lauder, while it did confirm that deal talks are in place, that was in a press release. The company also stated that, quote, no final decision has been made and no agreement has been reached. Unless and until an agreement is signed between the companies, there can be no assurances regarding the deal or its terms. So plenty to go here. Plenty happening in this industry and by the way, an important one in terms of its size and consumer impact. So we'll keep on watching. Coming up, we dig into two companies in the spotlight with America's critical mineral push and a French food giant buying a protein shake maker. Maybe a faux pas in the French culinary scene. But in the age of health conscious, weight conscious consumers, investors may just be on board we'll break it down, but first a word from our presenting sponsor, Vaneck. Vaneck believes gold has entered a new potential phase of structural strength, not just a tactical hedge. 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[John Coteau]

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[Ann Barry]

geopolitical unrest has shone a spotlight yet again on global supply chains, and never more so than when it comes to things like critical minerals. Well, a year after the White House initiated policies aimed at securing domestic sources of strategically critical materials and inputs with the aim to reduce dependence on China, here we are again. We're going to look at two American companies that have seen their share prices skyrocket recently. In a moment, we'll talk about uranium. But let's start with United States antimony ticker UAMY on the New York Stock Exchange, where it was just uplifted earlier this month from the nice American. We're going to come back to that in a future episode uplifting from the NYSE American well, US antimony market cap near $1.3 billion. And the company mines and refines other materials besides antimony, though that remains by far the largest share of of company revenue. So John, I'm going to hand it over to you because I'm going to keep wanting to say antimony incorrectly because I look at it, it's spelled A N T I M O N Y and it looks so close to anti money. I don't like it.

[John Coteau]

No, it's too much like anti money.

[Ann Barry]

Too much like anti money.

[John Coteau]

If you look at my notes, I have the word underlined everywhere. So I say antimony. So what is antimony? It's a critical mineral used in things like flame retardants, batteries and da da da. Semiconductors.

[Ann Barry]

Chips, chips, chips, chips, chips.

[John Coteau]

Exactly. And so best estimates that are over 50% of the world's antimony is mined in China. And China processes up to 90% of it. And so for some context, for securing supply chains, US Antimony is the only meaningful US producer refiner. Even though the company produces 1% or less of global antimony.

[Ann Barry]

I mean, that's just an amazing contrast, isn't it? Over 50% of the world's antimony, to repeat your factoid, mined in China, China processing. And that's an interesting point. We often talk about where the critical minerals are. We don't talk enough about where they're processed. And China's 90% stranglehold on processing isn't unique to this critical mineral. That's true in a bunch of other places too.

[John Coteau]

The company began mining in Montana in 1969. They eventually added smelting and milling. And that's what your point is, that mining, that's digging the raw material out of the ground, then milling is separating it out and smelting is the final step, turning it into the usable metal. And the goal is to build out a full vertical for this company that can do all those steps at scale.

[Ann Barry]

Well, last week the company reported its earnings for fiscal year 2025. And these numbers are interesting. Revenue of $39 million was up 163% year over year. So big, big percentage. But in the grand scheme of the companies we often talk about on the show, relative, you know, small in terms of absolute top line. Now the rise was primarily driven by a 230% increase in the average selling price per pound of antimony. And there was an operating loss higher than last year. It was under $10 million. But part of that was owing to the acquisition, to your point, John, of a new facility in Montana precisely with that goal of ramping up domestic mining and capacity.

[John Coteau]

Right. And so from the press release, I think this says it well. As our internally owned and mined Montana feedstock begins flowing through our recently acquired facility, along with our expanded smelting operations soon to be operational, we expect improved margins and reduced reliance on international third party or as the year progresses.

[Ann Barry]

And that the kind of thing is like music to the ears, right. Of the US Government. That's exactly the kind of outcome they want. They want to know that the facility is going to be in place. They want to see line of sight to seeing domestic production. So this is like the case study for what the point of all of these government backed programs to take stakes

[John Coteau]

are in and what shareholders are hoping for.

[Ann Barry]

Exactly. Well, on that point, US Antimony is also a beneficiary of the administration's effort to secure the Supply chains for critical materials and building national stockpiles. Because last fall the Pentagon's Defense Logistics Agency expressed plans to buy up to $245 million of antimony from U.S. antimony. But let's just repeat that number to buy up to $245 million. And just look at that revenue number last year. That is a massive backstop coming from the Pentagon, really underpinning the future growth of this business.

[John Coteau]

Yeah, it could be five times as much their annual revenue last year. And just to put some other cont. Context around it, we're talking about antimony. They also, they, they also mine tungsten. And the prices of tungsten is up 200% over the last year and a half. China also controls that global supply, 84% of it. And zeolite, those prices are up 8%. So as we're keeping an eye, obviously they're named us antimony, but there's lots of other products that they're mining for.

[Ann Barry]

Well, not a surprise here in terms of the analyst coverage. Surprise. Not a surprise. Number one, there aren't many analysts that cover this name. Right, Right. When we took a look to see how many Wall street analysts are out there, only four of them cover the name. And I've got to admit, one or two of them weren't analyst names that I've spent too much time with. They're pretty niche. But just goes to show that this feels like the kind of space where there needs to be a lot of digging, pun intended, a lot of sector specific knowledge, really understanding all the different steps in the process. There is the question, of course, if the company can scale up to the level of profitability that the share price expansion would indicate investors are looking for. But if those four analysts, four are saying this is a buy. And when I take a look at the price targets, the at the highest, 1350, quite a bit higher still than where it is today. So clearly there's a little bit of optimism when it comes to the coverage universe. Share price up 2% today, up 300% year over year. So we're going to keep watching that one sort of the, the small cap sector of the market. Well, we're going to turn to another critical material, a little different. It's not a mineral, but it is a heavy metal and that's uranium, the primary fuel, of course, for nuclear power plants. Now, the Uranium Energy Corporation, or uac, that's the company we're talking about now controls the largest uranium resource base and the most licensed production capacity in the United States, total of about £12 million each year. And the main production and mining areas are in Wyoming and Texas. I gotta tell you, John, I'm thinking about antimony. Right. And we said that that was based Montana. Now we're in Wyoming. I feel there's a Taylor Sheridan TV show to come out of this. Right there was it Yellowstone. Texas had landman.

[John Coteau]

Right.

[Ann Barry]

I think Wyoming and Montana is due for a critical minerals TV show.

[John Coteau]

Mineral Woman.

[Ann Barry]

Mineral. Yes, yes.

[John Coteau]

Starring Andrew.

[Ann Barry]

You heard it here first. We need more tea or we need a drink or something. We're in that place anyway. Ticker UEC on the New York Stock Exchange big market cap this one, $6.4 billion. And the company had its Q2 2026 earnings out earlier this month. So the calendar, the fiscal calendar, obviously different from the calendar year. Revenue of $20 million, but a loss per share that came in matching analyst estimates. And we should dig into why it's sort of losing money on a per share basis.

[John Coteau]

Right. Because it's a lot of investment. All these things are investment investment.

[Ann Barry]

Super heavy in investment. Yeah.

[John Coteau]

And I thought this was one interesting nugget taken. UEC was really promoting their unhedged strategy in its investor relations packet. UEC's strategy is to remain 100% unhedged so they don't sign long term contracts. They sell at current market prices. And so it's a bit of a gamble not to have locked in these contracts. But as uranium prices rise, the company can sell above an average market price. And on the earnings call, President and CEO Amir Adani addressed it this way. During the quarter, we sold uranium at pricing over 25% of the quarterly average, which demonstrates the advantage of our unhedged approach to inventory management in a strengthening uranium market.

[Ann Barry]

So the thesis on this one overall is that with the increase in demand for data center power, the price of uranium will just keep going up. That's the thick of it. And this could be the kind of fuel used, for example, by the startup Oklo, which is seeking regulation for many fission reactors. Last year the White House designated uranium a critical mineral and deemed foreign imports, constituting a matter of national security focus. And then of course, the big thing is last May, President Trump signed four executive orders targeting a quadrupling a fourfold increase in US nuclear capacity by 2050. And to get there is looking to accelerate the permitting process for reactors. And the one other thought I would add to this is we did see the big tech executives go to the White House in recent weeks pledging still to be seen how the execution works. That big tech will look to basically self fuel the data centers that they're building. So yes, we've got the startups like Oklo that are trying to position itself to benefit from that. There's a national security piece of it. But there's also, you know, we've got deep, deep pocketed capex spenders looking to find alternative sources of energy given the pressure that's placed on the grid. So this is one uranium going to keep looking this particular company. Again, that's Ticket UEC shares up 5% today and up 138% year over year. Well we love nerding out on critical minerals and there's a lot going on and it really is just goes to show you can get this big macro thesis like AI, which in turn becomes a thesis about data centers, which in turn becomes a thesis about critical minerals and materials. So we're going to keep digging in here and try to look at parts of the supply chain that could be interesting from an investor perspective. Well, let's take a break and when we come back spin through the headlines that are moving the markets today. John, are you a multi hyphenate?

[John Coteau]

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[Ann Barry]

There it is, the closing bell. 4pm on the east coast and the market's wrapping up for the day. We don't have a ticker tape but we're going to throw it over to our human ticker Our producer, John.

[John Coteau]

That's right. The S&P 500 finished down more than a third of a percent. The Nasdaq finished down around 8.10of a percent, and the Dow was down 2.10of a percent for the day. Some other market headlines. Netgear shares ticker NTGR surged as much as 16% today after the chair of the FCC said certain foreign routers posed, quote, an unacceptable national security risk and will no longer receive equipment authorization required for import and sale in the United States. China controls roughly 60% of the US home router market. And once the inventory of Chinese routers runs out, the door opens for American companies like California based Netgear to capture market share. The FCC noted that the ban does not apply to previously purchased consumer routers. So no need to panic that your home WI fi will cut out. And I was thinking about this today. I haven't bought a new router in so many years. There used to be an update of protocols from A to B to N, and now I've had the same one for years because if my Netflix streams, I'm good to go.

[Ann Barry]

Wait, so in terms of the router, I'm trying to think. So you buy your own? I'm pretty sure mine's provided by my cable company.

[John Coteau]

Yes. Do you have Verizon?

[Ann Barry]

I have Verizon, yes.

[John Coteau]

They give you your own one? I still use the old one I have connected to Verizon.

[Ann Barry]

Do you opt to do that or did you choose to do that? Did they say you need to get your own? Because that was the package that you chose.

[John Coteau]

I could not get theirs to work.

[Ann Barry]

Oh, wow.

[John Coteau]

We've talked about how much we like the fios techs that have come to our home.

[Ann Barry]

Yeah, the fios techs are amazing.

[John Coteau]

They're amazing.

[Ann Barry]

Love those guys.

[John Coteau]

The product was flawed for me, and so I went back to using my old router in a box. And it works great on the FIOS network.

[Ann Barry]

Do you know what's interesting? Just to talk about the Verizon Fioscope. So I moved, and I remember the techs who came and installed all of this. The first time was so brilliant. One played in a band on Staten island, and we were talking about, like, July 4th was coming up. It's very exciting. And when I moved again, I had fingers and toes crossed that the same tax would turn up. And they did. And I think they were so baffled when I told them how excited I was to see you again. It's me. I was like, yeah, we talk about. I was like, we talk about you on our show, which totally. I shouldn't have gone there. Yeah, I shouldn't go. But it was interesting. Yeah, they're great. All right. So net Gear. Who knew? I love that one. Well, it's totally separate track. Food deals are back. Dan own shares moving slightly higher today. And that's after the French food giant said it would acquire protein shake maker Heil. The Financial Times reported that the deal is worth about a billion euros, still subject to regulatory approval. And this was so interesting. Heil sells protein heavy meal replacements, branding them as, quote, nutritionally complete food. Nutritionally complete. Like that. And it's drawn backing from celebrities like the fabulous Idris Elba. Well, the acquisition comes at a pivotal moment for the industry because we're seeing more health conscious and younger consumers, in particular of the health conscious demographic. And also with the rise of GLP1 weight loss drugs, we're seeing without a reshaping of which kind of food groups folks eat. And protein at the moment at least is having a moment as a food group of choice. And if you look around, next time you go to the grocery store, look at the shelves. Because Danone clearly isn't alone in chasing that shift. General Mills is rolling out high protein cereals. So you can now get a bowl of Lucky charms packed with 17 grams of protein. Nestle's also launched its GLP1 Focus frozen brand. That's the weight loss piece of it and that's called vital pursuit. And Doritos has got a protein packed version of its snack. So lots of focus again on this sort of protein persistent and weight loss or GLP1 focused consumer base. And finally, shares in FedEx. That's ticker FDX, the bellwether often for the global economy. Up around a percent today. And that's because the company is jumping into the fast delivery race. So the global shipping giant announced a partnership with One Rail. That's the last mile delivery platform and represents the final step of getting a package from a full fulfillment center straight to a customer's doorstep.

[John Coteau]

The deal would allow FedEx's retail partners to offer two hour or same day deliveries powered by One Rail's network of, get this, 12 million delivery drivers that cover 99% of the US population. It's a race for that last mile. Last week we heard Amazon rolling out delivery windows as fast as one to three hours. Walmart and Target are also continuing to expand their own express operations.

[Ann Barry]

So there's a lot going on in this space and that doesn't touch on things like Uber right or the rideshare companies that are basically getting folks like you and me to do delivery on behalf of of others. So lots going on there and we always bring it back to the grocery wars because we're always focused on that Amazon versus Walmart dichotomy when it comes to try and get fresh produce into the hands of consumers again, the battle for drivers and the battle for logistics in that last mile part of the supply chain. That's it for today's Brew Markets Daily.

[John Coteau]

Brew Markets Daily is hosted by Anne Barry and produced by John Coteau, Target Villa Tief Avenue, LaRoya and Emily Miller and technical direction by Lonnie Fiskis. Brittany De Taco is our audio engineer and the president of Morning Brewing. It is Devin Emery.

[Ann Barry]

Wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter and tune in to Neil and Toby on Morning Brew Daily. We'll see you back tomorrow. Same time, same place. Sometimes you just want a good story. On TikTok you'll find short dramas, emotional, fast and impossible to stop watching. Download TikTok now.