Brew Markets – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Figma Stock’s Mysterious Lock-Up & Why Salesforce Can’t Catch A Break
Date: September 4, 2025
Host: Ann Berry
Podcast: Brew Markets (Morning Brew)

Overview

This episode dives into the top stories influencing the current stock market: Salesforce’s post-earnings decline amidst an AI transformation race, Figma’s stock lock-up puzzle after its hot IPO and first earnings, and the market implications of companies going private (with Walgreens as the latest example). The episode closes with key market headlines and a discussion about new legislation proposing a ban on lawmakers trading stocks.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Salesforce’s AI Bet and Market Skepticism (00:04–04:23)

• Salesforce’s Strong Quarter, But Investors Unimpressed:

  • Q2 results: Subscription and support revenue just under $10 billion (up 9% YoY).
  • Operating cash flow nearly $15 billion; additional $20 billion share buyback.
  • Showcase of its in-house Agent Force AI as a profit margin booster and “cash-printing machine.”
  • Announcement: 4,000 customer support layoffs (44% reduction) due to AI-driven efficiency.

• Market Reaction and Competitive Landscape:

  • Salesforce stock down 5% day-of-earnings; down 27% YTD.
  • Market concern: “Not growing fast enough”—outlook is for 8.5–9% revenue growth.
  • Comparisons: Palantir reports 93% enterprise growth in same quarter; HubSpot stepping up, though down 30% YTD.

• AI Integration vs. AI-Native Threat:

  • Ann Berry raises the existential question for software “OGs”: Is AI integration enough to compete against upstarts built AI-first?
  • “If the software originals aren’t the fast growers anymore, they need to be stable cash printing machines to keep their prestige in the market.” (Ann Berry, 03:44)

• Analyst and Activist Investor Pressure:

  • Goldman Sachs maintains “buy” rating, urging investor patience.
  • Activist investor Starboard is building position, known for driving corporate change.

• Notable Quote:

  “This is an opportunity for CEOs like myself to think about how are we going to balance our workforce? … What do we have humans doing? What do we have digital labor doing?”
  —Mark Benioff, Salesforce CEO (01:41)

2. Figma’s IPO, Earnings, and the Strange Lock-Up Extension (05:10–11:31)

• How Stock Lock-Ups Work Explained:

  • Post-IPO “lock-up” prevents insiders and VCs from selling substantial shares for 90–180 days to stabilize price.
  • Market nervousness: end of lock-up often triggers downward pressure as large insider blocks become liquid.

• Figma Case Study:

  • July IPO at $33/share, soared to $122, recently trading near half that.
  • Sky-high valuation multiples (over 200x P/E) set unsustainable expectations.
  • First earnings: Sales up 41% YoY; net retention rate fell 3% from previous quarter—fine, but not “astronomical.”

• Mysterious Lock-Up Extension:

  • Five largest VC shareholders (owning 54% of shares) sign a new extended lock-up to August 2026 (with limited windows for selling).
  • Interpretation: VCs want to signal confidence and avoid triggering further selloff after lackluster results.

• Notable Moment:

  “Most investors want to get out of their lockup as quickly as humanly possible. Not these five… It absolutely begs the question why?”
  —Ann Berry (10:39)
  “They’re saying, ‘We’re confident, so don’t bail on the shares yet.’”
  —John, Producer (11:27)

• Figma’s Next Steps:
  Ann and John will watch for insider selling during next earnings season and broader signals for other high-flying IPO tech stocks.

3. What Happens When a Public Company Goes Private? (12:12–15:06)

• Listener Q&A (Bella from Colorado):

  • What happens to stockholders when a public company is taken private? (Walgreens case study)

• Ann’s Explanation:

  • Shareholders are bought out at a premium; shares disappear and cash is credited to their accounts.
  • Rare exceptions for large, strategic holders, as seen with Jack Dorsey and Prince Alwaleed during Twitter’s 2022 take-private.
  • Everyday investors usually must accept the cash buyout; private shares are illiquid and not accessible to typical shareholders.

• Notable Quote:

  “Everyday investors don’t have the option to stick around after a company goes private. And frankly, most want to be cashed out anyway.”
  —Ann Berry (14:58)

4. Market Headlines & The Lawmakers’ Stock Trading Ban (15:14–18:08)

Market Recap (15:22):

• Major indices up: S&P 500 and Dow up 0.8%, Nasdaq up nearly 1%
• Gap stock up 4% on news of new beauty/fragrance products.
• Abercrombie & Fitch partners with NFL; stock up almost 1%.
• American Eagle soars over 30% on positive earnings and marketing campaign.

Emerging Topic: Bipartisan Bill to Ban Lawmaker Stock Trading (16:19–18:08):

• New House legislation to bar members from trading individual shares; prompted by ongoing controversy and insider info concerns.

• Noted as a rare effort with genuine bipartisan support—reflecting public distrust of politicians’ access to material, market-moving information.

• Ann Berry’s Final Thought:

  “At the moment, we don’t see an awful lot of bipartisan support for policies… this seems to be one of the rare moments where both sides of the aisle are coming together…” (17:40)

Notable Quotes

• Mark Benioff (Salesforce CEO) [01:41]:

  “This is an opportunity for CEOs like myself to think about how are we going to balance our workforce? What do we have humans doing? What do we have digital labor doing?”

• Ann Berry [03:44]:

  “If the software originals aren’t the fast growers anymore, they need to be stable cash printing machines to keep their prestige in the market.”

• Ann Berry [10:39]:

  “Most investors want to get out of their lockup as quickly as humanly possible. Not these five… It absolutely begs the question why?”

• John, Producer [11:27]:

  “They’re saying, ‘We’re confident, so don’t bail on the shares yet.’”

• Ann Berry [14:58]:

  “Everyday investors don’t have the option to stick around after a company goes private. And frankly, most want to be cashed out anyway.”

• Ann Berry [17:40]:

  “This seems to be one of the rare moments where both sides of the aisle are coming together to tackle something that has been top of people's mind for quite some time.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Salesforce AI layoffs, earnings, and market response: 00:04–04:23
• Explanation of lock-ups, Figma’s first report, and lock-up extension: 05:10–11:31
• Listener Q&A: Going private (Walgreens): 12:12–15:06
• Daily market headlines and closing bell: 15:14–16:19
• Discussion: Lawmaker stock trading ban: 16:19–18:08

Tone and Style

Ann Berry’s delivery is expert, practical, and candid, mixing quick data analysis with clear, conversational explanations and occasional dry humor. The team’s banter (especially with producer John) keeps the mood approachable while addressing complex market themes.

Key Takeaways

• Despite strong earnings and substantial AI deployment, Salesforce is being penalized in the market for slow growth relative to flashier AI-native competitors.
• Figma’s extended lock-up by top VCs is an unusual, confidence-signaling move after its first post-IPO earnings failed to wow investors.
• When public companies go private, ordinary shareholders are almost always bought out automatically; only major strategics get a seat at the new private table.
• There’s rare bipartisan momentum in Congress for a bill banning lawmakers from trading individual stocks, prompted by ethics and insider-access controversies.

For further deep dives and timely stock market insights, tune in to Brew Markets every weekday.