Brew Markets – Inside Dollar Valuation and Global Currencies & Value of Olympic Medals

Host: Ann Berry
Guest: Kathy Lean, Director of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management
Date: February 6, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of Brew Markets, hosted by Ann Berry, dives deep into the dynamics behind the recent fall of the US Dollar to its lowest value in four years, record-breaking highs in gold and silver, and the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair nominee. The goal is to demystify current global currency trends, explain their impact on investments and personal finance, and spotlight the interplay between currency, commodities, and international economics. Special guest Kathy Lean, a renowned forex expert, shares actionable insights with engaging clarity.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Why the US Dollar Matters

• Impact on Everyday Life:
  • Travel decisions, online shopping, and prices of oil and gas all tie into the US Dollar’s strength or weakness.
  • "It impacts, you know, where you decide to travel... what you're ordering from TEMU... the price of oil and gas you’re paying at the pump... even investments." (Kathy Lean, 02:56)
• US Dollar as a Global Benchmark:
  • Affects the value of foreign holdings and reserve assets across nations.

Drivers Behind the Dollar’s Decline

• Interest Rates as the Key Driver:
  • “The number one most important thing to understand about the US Dollar is it's driven by the direction of interest rates. And the Federal Reserve ... could end up being one of the very few central banks that are lowering interest rates in 2026.” (Kathy Lean, 03:45)
• Global Rate Differentials:
  • It’s not just about US rates, but US rates vs. rest-of-world rates.
• Investor Confidence:
  • International confidence in US economic stability and policy is waning, further weakening the currency.

Capital Flows and Political Turbulence

• Notable pattern: Recent political shocks (tariffs, geopolitics like Greenland) have not boosted the Dollar as they might have in the past.
  • “During Liberation Day, instead of rising, the dollar fell... The US Dollar is being punished for being the source of the troubles, rather than the source of safety in times of trouble.” (Kathy Lean, 05:07)

US Treasuries & Foreign Demand

• Changing Bond Dynamics:
  • Demand for US Treasuries overseas is not as strong, and that’s reflected in bond prices and yields.
  • “US Bond prices are falling leading to a sharp rise in US yields... But that's not happening right now. You're seeing yields rise and you're seeing the dollar fall. The reason for that is because yields are rising because people abroad are selling US bonds – and that's happening for the wrong reasons.” (Kathy Lean, 07:01)

Why a Weaker Dollar Matters

• Inflation Effects:
  • Weaker dollar → higher inflation, complicating the Fed’s agenda.
  • Also affects costs of imports, energy, and travel.
• Stock Market & Exports:
  • Could boost exports and, by extension, US stocks – but with caveats.
• Personal Finance:
  • “It definitely affects a lot of different things... foreign made cars more expensive; that Sony TV or PlayStation could increase in price.” (Kathy Lean, 08:44)

Foreign Holdings and Geopolitical Implications

• Impact on Major Holders:
  • When the dollar falls, global FX reserve holders (like China, Japan, Switzerland) see the value of their dollar assets decline.
• Cheaper debt servicing for these countries may be a silver lining, but there's hesitation to buy more US Treasuries; diversification toward gold and other assets is noted. (Kathy Lean, 11:03)

Where is the Money Going?

• Shift to Gold and Metals:
  • “It’s in gold, it's in the metals. That's why we're seeing this tremendous move in gold and silver.” (Kathy Lean, 13:00)
  • Fundamental demand, not just “meme stock” behavior, is driving precious metals up.
• Global Equities & Emerging Markets:
  • Institutional investors pivoting to stocks—especially in emerging markets and Europe.

Market Impact of New Fed Chair Nominee (Kevin Walsh)

• Immediate Reactions:
  • US Dollar rebounds; gold prices drop.
  • “Wash was chosen as the nominee... safest choice for the markets because he's got deep Fed experience... many people perceive Kevin Walsh as an inflation hawk... but more recently his comments are less sure—he may be a hawk turned dove.” (Kathy Lean, 15:41)
• White House Objectives:
  • Clear desire to see rates come down, stimulate growth and housing.
  • Trump’s historical approach: continuity in policy expectations.

The US Dollar’s Symbolism and Reserve Role

• Symbol of Power:

  • “It matters because, you know, first of all, it's a sign of power. It's a reflection of the breadth of the US Markets and its ability to attract foreign investment.” (Kathy Lean, 18:20)

• Risks of Over-Dominance:

  • Should foreign holders sell off treasuries en masse, it could spark turmoil—higher yields, credit costs, and a market crash.

• Alternatives to the Dollar:

  • Only the euro poses a feasible alternative; yuan/renminbi is too tightly controlled; gold is volatile.

Japan’s Unique Role in Currency Markets

• Yen Weakness and Intervention:
  • “Japan’s an export-dependent economy, so they want a weak currency. But the problem... is that it also hurts their ability to buy abroad, and impacts inflation... The Japanese have been trying to talk down their currency... but verbal intervention doesn’t work.” (Kathy Lean, 20:48)
• US-Japan Coordination:
  • True intervention is only effective if done jointly with the US—recent rate checks signal caution in the market.

Kathy Lean’s Personal Investment Perspective

• Current Allocation:
  • “I’m still in long stocks... looking to buy at lower levels. Gold... I’m looking for opportunities to buy. Interested in Bitcoin now—the recent steep drop is starting to become a very interesting opportunity.” (Kathy Lean, 24:03)
• FX Preference:
  • Bullish on the euro: “Very bullish Euros as a result.”
• No-fly Zones:
  • Avoiding oil: “I think oil is very temperamental and very headline driven... I’m going to stay away from [it] for now.” (Kathy Lean, 25:23)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Gold’s Surge:
  “Central banks now hold, for the first time ever, more gold than they do US Treasuries and US Dollars. And that's a pretty big deal.”
  — Kathy Lean, 05:07

• On Meme Stocks vs. Real Demand:
  “Gold’s a meme stock at this point,” Danielle DiMartino Booth (recounted by Ann Berry, 13:36)
  “What you're describing is not meme stock behavior. What you're describing is gold fundamentally being in more demand.”
  — Ann Berry, 13:36

• Fed Chair Walsh and Market Reaction:
  “We did see the US Dollar rise. We saw gold get crushed on the back of the move ... he may not end up being as dovish as the market believes, but he is probably the least dovish still of the potential nominees.”
  — Kathy Lean, 15:41

• Reserve Currency Dilemma:
  “It’s a sign of power ... but it also comes with risk. If they decide ... to sell U.S. treasuries, that's going to drive the US Dollar lower, and more importantly, drive US treasury yields higher ... that could crash the US stock market and hurt Americans.”
  — Kathy Lean, 18:20

• On Japan’s Market Power:
  “Tokyo is one of the biggest foreign exchange trading centers in the world and Japan owns a tremendous amount of U.S. treasuries ... history shows the only time intervention works is when it’s coordinated with the US.”
  — Kathy Lean, 20:48

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:23] — Kathy Lean Introduction
• [02:56 - 05:07] — Why the Dollar Matters & Main Drivers for its Decline
• [05:07 - 06:29] — Capital Flows, Geopolitics, and Foreign Demand for US Assets
• [08:44 - 10:18] — Inflation, Stock Market, and Personal Finance Implications
• [11:03 - 12:46] — Impact on Foreign Reserve Holders & Asset Diversification
• [13:00 - 15:07] — Where Big Money Is Moving: Gold, Metals, Stocks
• [15:24 - 17:52] — Fed Nominee Impact and Market Sentiment
• [18:01 - 19:49] — Dollar as Reserve Currency and Global Leverage
• [20:29 - 23:01] — Japan’s Importance in FX Markets
• [24:03 - 25:40] — Kathy Lean’s Own Investment Strategies and Advice

Bonus Segment: Value of Olympic Medals

[26:40]

• Gold was up again today, just shy of $5,000 an ounce.
• Since 2024, gold medals have doubled in value (~$2,300 each); silver medals have tripled (~$1,400).

Where to Follow Kathy Lean

• X (Twitter): @KathyLeanFX
• Instagram: Forex Macro Queen
• YouTube: bk4x
• Books: Little Book of Currency Trading, Day Trading and Currency Market, Prop Trading Secrets, Millionaire Traders (25:48)

Overall Tone

The conversation is energetic, candid, and informative—aimed both at making big economic shifts understandable and engaging for investors and everyday listeners. Ann Berry’s curiosity and Kathy Lean’s dynamic expertise make for a show that's both substantive and accessible.