Brew Markets Podcast Summary

Episode: Inside Today’s Delayed Jobs Data & The Agility Advantage of the Retail Investor
Date: December 16, 2025
Host: Ann Berry
Guest: Howard Lindzon (CEO & co-founder, StockTwits)

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep dive into two crucial areas:

• Retail investor agility versus institutional investors with insights from StockTwits CEO Howard Lindzon, including his 2026 market predictions and the “Degenerate Economy Index.”
• Analysis of delayed U.S. jobs data, its implications for Federal Reserve policy, and market reactions, along with a roundup of major stock stories affecting Pfizer, Meta, Tesla, and stablecoins.

The tone is conversational, candid, and sharp—intended for listeners interested in actionable investing trends and market dynamics.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Retail Edge in 2026

[02:44 – 06:55]

• Lindzon discusses his focus on small-cap stocks (IWM index) for 2026, noting their recent breakout despite media fixation on large caps and AI stocks.
  • “If the small caps are starting to work and nobody expects them to be working and no one's talking about them, I like that. I don't need anybody to be talking about them.” (Howard Lindzon, [04:00])
• He explains his trend-following, price-driven investment style, likening himself to a “pilot fish” following the market’s “great white sharks,” rather than overanalyzing fundamentals.
  • Challenges the pessimistic take that “40% of small cap companies have no earnings.”
  • “By the time Apollo changes their mind...they're going to start buying when the index is up 30% next year and I will sell to them eventually.” (Howard Lindzon, [05:50])
• Advocates nimbleness as a retail investor: institutions are weighed down by their own research, while retail can shift strategies faster.

2. How to Ride the Bull Market in 2026

[06:55 – 10:19]

• Lindzon emphasizes the importance of staying invested, despite market uncertainty and negative news cycles:
  • “You do not have to like the bull market to ride it… That's my anthem going into 2026.” (Howard Lindzon, [06:58])
• Notes the paradoxical environment: starting to invest is easier than ever, but staying invested is harder due to overwhelming and often negative information.
  • Platforms like Robinhood, Public, and Coinbase lower barriers to entry.
  • “The misery that comes with the joy of being invested has never been… more people trying to tell you the world’s coming to an end.” (Howard Lindzon, [08:25])
• He urges young investors to focus on basics—stay in the market while profits and cash flow still matter.

3. Prediction Markets: “New Wild West Media”

[10:19 – 15:48]

• Lindzon calls prediction markets on apps like Robinhood “a brand new wild west,” a type of financial media rather than pure investing.
  • “I assume everything is rigged… They're a toy and I'm super respectful and curious of their new power and influence.” (Howard Lindzon, [10:41])
• Admits prior skepticism of betting being “non-investing,” but now sees prediction markets as a powerful (if risky) way to get real-time consensus data, and even as potential news sources:
  • “Prediction markets is a much better way to get news. Why? Because it comes with the data first and the opinions will follow.” (Howard Lindzon, [13:32])
• Forecasts that platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi will be regarded more as media companies.
  • Notes the motivation for VC money: “There's this chase to be in something that is a toy… but it is a marvelous product.” ([12:42])

4. The “Degenerate Economy” & Index

[16:06 – 20:19]

• Lindzon explains his coined phrase “the degenerate economy”—a world where investing, trading, speculation, and gambling blend, and speculation is entertainment.
  • “It’s never been easier to get invested and it’s never been harder to stay invested. That’s kind of the thesis of the degenerate economy.” ([17:08])
• He tracks this phenomenon with the “Degenerate Economy Index,” including companies like Robinhood, Coinbase, Cboe, ICE, and CME—platforms benefitting from onboarding new retail investors and traders.
• On including (and then removing) Deckers:
  • Owned for its “American LVMH” spirit, but dropped after tariffs affected profitability.
  • “Once I realized that this company was going to have a hard time making profits, it’s very hard to own that stock.” ([19:48])

5. Santa Claus Rally Prediction

[20:19 – 21:06]

• Lindzon predicts a year-end rally is statistically likely, though he doesn’t use it as a major signal:
  • “Mathematically, rallies generally start today… Generally the last two weeks of the year are up.” ([20:46])

6. Jobs Data Debrief: Noisy Numbers & Fed Uncertainty

[22:40 – 27:25]

• November jobs report:
  • +64,000 jobs added, rebounding from -105,000 in October; bulk in healthcare.
  • Net for the two months is still negative; unemployment rises to 4.6%—highest since September 2021.
  • “The market does not like…lack of clarity.” (Ann Berry, [23:26])
• Government job losses (168,000) skewed data due to delayed resignations and shutdown.
• Some concern about rising unemployment in minority demographics.
• Federal Reserve made a December rate cut “flying blind” due to delayed data.
  • Prediction markets (Kalshi) put a 77% chance of no rate change in January.
  • “It looks as though there’s an overwhelming expectation that it won’t happen in January, that was basically pulled forward into December.” (Ann Berry, [27:25])

7. Market Headlines Roundup

[28:17 – 31:47]

• Tesla: Finishes at a record high after testing fully driverless vehicles in Austin.
  • “Tesla’s on the way up… dominated again by Tesla.” (John, [29:20])
  • Musk buoyed by a record-breaking trillion-dollar pay package.
• Circle & Visa:
  • Circle’s USDC stablecoin adoption rises—Visa’s network now settles with USDC, boosting Circle shares.
• Pfizer: Slides 5% after underwhelming 2026 guidance (revenue flat, return to growth “by end of decade”).
• Meta: Launches Instagram Reels for TV (Amazon Fire TV), signaling battle for at-home screen time intensifies.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If the small caps are starting to work and nobody expects them to be working and no one's talking about them, I like that.”
  — Howard Lindzon ([04:00])

• “You do not have to like the bull market to ride it … That's my anthem going into 2026.”
  — Howard Lindzon ([06:58])

• “The misery that comes with the joy of being invested has never been… more people trying to tell you the world’s coming to an end.”
  — Howard Lindzon ([08:25])

• “Prediction markets is a much better way to get news. Why? Because it comes with the data first and the opinions will follow.”
  — Howard Lindzon ([13:32])

• “Degenerate is just a term that’s just been abused over time...It’s never been easier to get invested and it’s never been harder to stay invested.”
  — Howard Lindzon ([17:08])

Timestamps of Key Segments

| Segment | Time | |---------------------------------------------|-----------| | Small Caps & Retail Agility | 02:44–06:55| | Riding the Bull Market | 06:55–10:19| | Prediction Markets & Media | 10:19–15:48| | Degenerate Economy Index Explanation | 16:06–20:19| | Santa Claus Rally? | 20:19–21:06| | Jobs Data Breakdown, Fed Implications | 22:40–27:25| | Market Headlines (Tesla, Circle, Pfizer, Meta)| 28:17–31:47|

Summary Takeaways

• Retail investors have a real edge in 2026: more nimble, less constrained by institutional inertia and research.
• Small caps are Howard Lindzon’s contrarian favorite, with trend-following over deep fundamental analysis.
• Prediction markets are reshaping financial news—serving as data-driven sentiment barometers and, perhaps, future media companies.
• Despite easier access, staying invested is harder than ever due to the noisy media environment.
• Delayed, noisy jobs data has left the Fed and markets in the dark, but rate cuts are unlikely in January according to prediction markets.
• Tesla, stablecoins, Pfizer, and Meta headline a busy market news cycle, each with implications for investors tracking innovation and disruption.

This engaging episode is essential for anyone interested in market psychology, fintech trends, and the evolving power dynamics between institutional and retail investors.