Brew Markets: Is Bitcoin at Risk from Quantum Computing? (with Rigetti CEO)

Podcast: Brew Markets
Host: Ann Berry
Date: April 10, 2026
Guest: Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, CEO of Rigetti
Episode Focus: Examine the rapid progress in quantum computing, its measurement, commercial potential, and particularly address recent concerns—spurred by new research—about the vulnerability of Bitcoin and other cryptos to quantum-based cyberattacks.

Episode Overview

This episode centers on quantum computing’s accelerating capabilities and its implications for finance, cybersecurity, and tech investing. Ann Berry interviews Dr. Subodh Kulkarni of Rigetti, who shares updates on quantum hardware milestones, assesses the market’s rollercoaster reaction to the sector, and tackles the question: Is Bitcoin (and broader cryptography) at real risk from forthcoming quantum breakthroughs?

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rigetti’s Progress on Quantum Hardware (02:12–03:43)

• Milestone Updates:

  • Rigetti deployed a 36-qubit processor in July 2025, just one month behind their target.
  • As of April 2026, a 108-qubit system is live on AWS, accessible globally.
  • Dr. Kulkarni stresses that, in quantum tech, “a couple months here or there doesn’t make a big difference in the long-term development of such complex technologies.” (02:45)

• Investor Metrics:

  • While qubit count matters, the quality (especially “fidelity”), speed (“gate speed”), and the efficacy of error correction are equally crucial.

  • Four key performance metrics for quantum progress:

    1. Physical qubit count
    2. Fidelity (accuracy of qubit information transfer)
    3. Gate speed
    4. Error correction/mitigation capability

  • Long-term aim: Achieve "quantum advantage," when quantum computers clearly and consistently outperform classical computers for practical use cases. Rigetti is "roughly three years from that milestone." (05:10)

  • Recent achievement: 108-qubits, 99.1% 2-qubit gate fidelity, 60 nanosecond gate speed, “so we are making progress towards that quantum advantage milestone.” (05:30)

2. Quantum and the AI Debate (06:31–11:18)

• AI Progress Without Quantum?

  • Ann cites DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis’s skepticism that quantum is needed to drive AI forward—classical advances could suffice.

  • Dr. Kulkarni agrees the field is divided:

    • One camp believes AI/AGI can be reached by scaling up CPU/GPU hardware and energy.
    • The other points to limits in classical computing, especially with diminishing AI model returns and difficulties in simulating the “randomness” of the human brain.

  • “Even if AGI can be accomplished with GenAI… there are many applications just difficult for classical computing to do,” including cryptography, probabilistic forecasting, and drug discovery. (08:44)

  • Market projections for quantum range from $2–4B in five years to a trillion-dollar market in 15–20 years.

3. Quantum Computing and the Future of Cryptocurrency Security (11:18–14:11)

• New Threats:

  • Recent Google research suggests quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s encryption “about 20 times more quickly than had previously been anticipated.” (11:18)
  • Timeline for potential crypto vulnerability has compressed—from 8–10 years to “just a few years, couple years, three years maybe.” (13:22)

• Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC):

  • The broader security world is (and must be) shifting to PQC to stay ahead.

  • "Unfortunately for all of us, [RSA and AES encryption] is very easily breakable with a quantum computer." (12:45)

  • Notable Quote:
    "That statement itself tells you how quickly things can change in technology development. And we just don't know sitting here how things are going to evolve."
    — Dr. Kulkarni, (12:03)

4. Commercial Applications: From Moody’s to Major Banks (15:27–18:37)

• Financial Sector Partnerships:

  • Rigetti partners with Moody’s to increase economic recession prediction accuracy (from 68% to 77%), by fusing quantum and classical methods.
  • Collaborating with Standard Chartered and HSBC to detect fraudulent transactions missed by classical algorithms.
    • Quantum can “pick up on unique signatures” missed by billions of daily traditional transactions.

• Diversifying Beyond Finance:

  • Ongoing pilots in pharmaceutical research and other sectors.

5. Financial Health and Cash Runway (18:37–21:57)

• Liquidity and Burn Rate:

  • $590 million cash and equivalents as of last quarter, “no debt.” (19:38)
  • Current burn rate: ~$75–80 million/year, expected to rise with investment/hiring, but offset by growing revenues.
  • Dr. Kulkarni: “We feel very good that we have enough cash to take us through easily to that quantum advantage milestone… and even beyond that.” (20:20)

• Commercial Revenue Timeline:

  • Current revenue primarily from National Labs, universities, some early commercial.
  • Expect “significant increase in commercial activity” as quantum advantage approaches in ~three years.
  • Targeting cash flow breakeven in ~5 years, profitability thereafter.

6. Stock Market Volatility and Going Public (21:57–28:30)

• Share Price Rollercoaster:

  • Stock went from <$1 three years ago, to $10, up to $60 late last year, “now back to about $13.” (22:22)

  • Ann (disclosure: a shareholder) calls it a “rollercoaster…” Dr. Kulkarni affirms: “it was less than a dollar three years ago when I joined the company.”

  • Notable Quote: “It’s not for the faint of heart to be involved in these kinds of companies. So we try not to look at the share price every day or even every week if possible... This is a long term play as an investor.” (23:04)

• Quantum Technology Modalities:

  • The field’s complexity (superconducting vs. trapped ion, etc.) compounds market confusion and volatility.
  • Rigetti doubles down on “superconducting gate technology” due to scalability and speed; open partnership model sets them apart.

• Should They Have Stayed Private Longer?

  • Ann asks if Rigetti went public too soon, given companies like OpenAI and SpaceX stayed private through their core growth years.
  • Dr. Kulkarni: “If it were completely up to me, to be honest, I would have tried to keep Rigetti private for a little longer before going public.” (27:14)
  • Going public before 100-qubit progress “was a tad bit premature” given that tech investors understand 2–3 year runways, but are less comfortable with 5–10 year timelines.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On tech timelines and risk:
  “It’s not for the faint of heart to be involved in these kinds of companies…”
  — Dr. Kulkarni (23:04)

• On unpredictability:
  “That statement itself tells you how quickly things can change in technology development. And we just don’t know sitting here how things are going to evolve.”
  — Dr. Kulkarni (12:03)

• On advancing quantum goals:
  “We are making progress towards that quantum advantage milestone. But we… are still about three years away, we think.”
  — Dr. Kulkarni (05:30)

Important Timestamps

• 02:12–03:43 Rigetti’s hardware progress and update on roadmap
• 04:01–06:31 What progress metrics matter for investors
• 07:15–11:18 The debate: quantum vs. classical in AI + quantum’s market potential
• 11:18–14:11 Google’s research on Bitcoin’s quantum risk and post-quantum cryptography
• 15:27–18:37 Real-world partnerships with Moody’s, banks—quantum in financial services
• 18:37–21:57 Rigetti’s cash position, burn rate, commercialization trajectory
• 21:57–28:30 Stock market volatility and the pros/cons of staying private vs. public

Summary Takeaways

• Rigetti continues to meet aggressive quantum hardware goals, now offering 108-qubit systems on AWS.
• Measuring “progress” requires looking beyond qubit count to fidelity, speed, and error correction—the four metrics framing the journey to “quantum advantage.”
• Recent studies suggest the timeline for quantum computers to crack modern cryptography (e.g., Bitcoin’s protections) is much shorter than previously thought, accelerating the urgency of post-quantum cryptography.
• Commercial pilots already show value in predictive analytics and financial fraud detection, signaling quantum’s emerging utility.
• Despite technical and business advances, the sector faces high volatility and uncertainty—compounded by the market’s patchy understanding of quantum modalities.
• Dr. Kulkarni reflects candidly on the challenges of raising public capital too soon, preferring, in hindsight, to have waited until the technology was closer to major milestones.

Overall, this episode is a must-listen for tech investors, finance professionals concerned about quantum-era cyber risks, and anyone tracking the breakneck progress in quantum hardware and the commercial pathways opening up for the technology.