Brew Markets
Episode: Joby’s Flight Path to Air Taxi Approval & CLEAR’s Breakout Year
Date: February 26, 2026
Host: Ann Berry
Co-host: John Curto

Episode Overview

In this episode of Brew Markets, Ann Berry and John Curto dissect two compelling stock market stories: CLEAR’s striking financial turnaround and expansion into healthcare, and Joby Aviation’s accelerating race toward commercial air taxi service. The hosts analyze each company’s earnings, strategic moves, and broader market implications, while also zooming out to cover major headlines about eBay, Celsius, Krispy Kreme, and Nvidia. Listener feedback is woven into the air taxi discussion, connecting market performance to public curiosity.

1. CLEAR’s Breakout Year and Healthcare Expansion

Segment Begins: 01:05

Key Themes

• CLEAR, the biometric secure identity platform, reports phenomenal financials and game-changing new contracts.
• CEO Karen Seidman Becker’s strategic vision and focus on cash flow after rescuing the company from bankruptcy shapes CLEAR’s performance.
• The company pushes into healthcare, scoring a pivotal contract with Medicare and a partnership with Mount Sinai.

Highlights & Insights

Background and Leadership

• Karen Seidman Becker, though not the founder, bought CLEAR out of bankruptcy in 2010 and steered its reinvention.
  • “I watched people build incredible businesses, products that became platforms … I guess I don’t have a fear of failure … I walked out for six million dollars and a million dollars of legal fees with a company called Clear and the desire to build a secure identity platform.” (Karen Seidman Becker, reflecting in interview, [~02:00])

Blockbuster Financials (2025)

• Revenue surged 17% to $901 million for the year.
• Q4 bookings growth: >25%.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $262 million, with a 480 basis point (4.8%) YoY margin expansion to 29%.
• Free cash flow: $340 million (38% conversion of revenue), expected to grow at least 28% more in 2026.
• Announced a 20% hike in quarterly cash dividend, a special cash dividend, and a $125 million increase to its share repurchase plan.

Quote on Cash Focus

• “With her Wall Street background, CEO Seidman Becker basically comes from a cash-is-queen mentality … When a company’s been through the trauma of bankruptcy, trust me, liquidity is always top of mind afterwards.” (Ann Berry, 03:30)

Operations and Growth

• Expanded its “e-gates” to 37 airports with a full network rollout planned for 2026.
• Rolled out a refreshed mobile app and expanded partnership with American Express.
• Membership grew to 38 million, up 31% YoY—mainly as recurring subscription revenue with high margins.

Move into Healthcare

• New contract with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS): Clear1 Secure Identity Platform will power account creation and access for Medicare.gov.
  • Focus on fraud prevention, aligning with recent White House priorities.
  • “The White House has emphasized … President Trump announced in his recent State of the Union address his, quote, ‘war on fraud,’ to be led by VP JD Vance.” (Ann Berry, 05:08)
• Partnership with Mount Sinai: Digital check-in and medical record access for employees and patients.

Market Response

• Shares surged nearly 40% after the earnings announcement, up 34% YTD, more than 110% in the past year.

2. Joby Aviation and the Air Taxi Race

Segment Begins: 07:03 (Listener Email On Air Taxis)

Key Themes

• Joby Aviation’s push for FAA certification, readiness for commercial launch abroad, and cash runway.
• Comparison to competitor Archer—a tale of diverging fortunes despite similar ambitions.
• The emerging landscape of eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) air taxis.

Highlights & Insights

Listener Inquiry

• Bella from Colorado writes in: “I have been interested in evtol companies for a year now … curious about your thoughts on Joby Aviation, given that their share price is up 50% in the last year, while Archer’s has fallen 15%.” ([07:03])

Joby Aviation’s Status

• Market cap at nearly $10 billion; shares up 5% on earnings.
• Q4 revenue: $31 million, nearly doubling estimates.
• Adjusted EPS loss of $0.14, a smaller loss than the $0.20 expected.

Context for Valuation

• “Even with that $10 billion market cap, this is a big company ... but certainly not based on revenue or profit.” (John Curto, 08:25)
• Valuations rest on regulatory progress, not near-term profit.

Regulatory Milestones

• Joby is first to build an FAA-conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA)—final stage of design and testing.
• All required aircraft for TIA are in production.
  • “They’re really close. They can sort of see the end … going to take to the skies and potentially have people in them.” (John Curto, 09:48)

Financial Health and Expansion

• $1.4 billion in cash and equivalents at year-end, bolstered by an additional $1.2 billion recently—seen as ample runway.
• Major investment in a new 700,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Dayton, OH, to double monthly aircraft production from 2 to 4 by 2027.

Commercial Launch and Uber Partnership

• Anticipates first passenger flights in Dubai later this year—before full US FAA approval.

• Riders will book via the Uber app; Uber Black vehicles handle pickups/dropoffs, integrating with the air taxi leg.

• Each aircraft holds up to four passengers plus a certified commercial pilot (not yet autonomous).

  • “This is luxury travel. This is a luxury experience, an integrated luxury experience.” (John Curto, 11:58)
  • “My first thought hearing that again is about scaling up ... There has to be a certified commercial pilot on each one of these aircraft … That’s different than an Uber driver.” (Ann Barry, 12:03)

Path to Autonomy

• Joby—like other eVTOL companies—invests in eventual autonomous capability, likely starting with non-passenger uses (cargo, delivery).

Blade Acquisition & Integration

• Joby acquired Blade (bougie helicopter shuttle) in 2025; Blade rides now bookable via Uber, offering market learnings ahead of eVTOL rollout.

Competition: Archer

• Archer is also planning Dubai launch this year and is official partner for LA 2028 Olympics.

• Not yet at FAA TIA stage.

• Archers’ stock down 20% from January highs amid short-selling activity questioning regulatory progress.

  • “It looks as though Joby at this point pulling away, getting ahead … perhaps getting there a little bit faster than Archer is.” (John Curto, 14:09)
  • “It’s so interesting … to see how both companies … are looking to debut in Dubai and the UAE … The air taxi operation there is supposed to be up and running before the LA Olympics. We’re going to have a two-year window to really take a look and see how does the technology work, what is the adoption like? … The valuations seem a bit bonkers to me.” (Ann Barry, 15:49)

Market Perspective

• Archer’s market cap: ~$5 billion. Both trade at ambitious multiples compared to current revenue.
• Cash burn and speed to regulatory milestones are key risks for both.

3. Rapid Market Headlines

Segment Begins: 17:35

• eBay (Ticker: EBAY): Shares up 6% after layoff news; $1.2B acquisition of Depop to grow with younger consumers (90% of Depop users are under 34).
• Celsius Holdings (Ticker: CELH): Stock up 7%—energy drink maker is positioning itself as a coffee rival; CEO John Fieldly: “It isn’t just about recruiting new consumers, it’s about becoming part of that daily lifestyle and daily routine.” (Ann Barry, 18:33)
• Krispy Kreme (Ticker: DNUT): Shares up 28% on improved margins despite lower revenue, pivoting to focused sales points (Walmart, Target, Costco).
  • “I bought this stock during the pandemic ... despite today’s jump, I’m still down 72% and not bullish on donut consumption.” (Ann Barry, 19:19)
  • “I am bullish on my own personal donut consumption.” (John Curto, 19:29)
• Nvidia (Ticker: NVDA): Despite record-shattering earnings and guidance, shares were down 5% on fears AI-fueled growth may not sustain.
  • “By any reasonable measure, Nvidia’s earnings last night were absolutely stellar ... Nevertheless, shares were down over 5% today. This seems to be the story of Nvidia’s share price at the moment—just too good to be sustainable.” (John Curto, 19:48)
  • Nvidia’s $17.5B investment in private companies and infrastructure flagged as evidence of its critical role in fueling the startup and AI ecosystem.

4. Memorable Quotes & Moments

On CLEAR’s turnaround and cash discipline:
“With her Wall Street background, CEO Seidman Becker basically comes from a cash-is-queen mentality. … When a company’s been through the trauma of bankruptcy, trust me, liquidity is always top of mind afterwards.” – Ann Barry (03:30)

On Joby’s business model:
“Valuations seem a bit bonkers to me.” – Ann Barry (15:49)

On Archer and Dubai’s early adoption:
“We’re going to have a two-year window to really take a look and see how does the technology work, what is the adoption like, are people afraid or unafraid to get into these vehicles?” – Ann Barry (15:38)

On Krispy Kreme:
“I am bullish on my own personal donut consumption.” – John Curto (19:29)

Listener Email Highlight:
“Hi Ann. I have been interested in evtol companies for a year now. … I’m curious about your thoughts on Joby Aviation given that their share price is up 50% in the last year, while Archer’s has fallen 15%.” – Bella in Colorado (07:03)

5. Timestamps of Important Segments

• CLEAR’s CEO backstory and financials: 01:05 – 06:40
• Joby Aviation & eVTOL race (incl. listener mail): 07:03 – 15:54
• Market headlines (eBay, Celsius, Krispy Kreme, Nvidia): 17:35 – 20:34
• Notable market color, anecdotes & close: 20:34 – 23:10

6. Tone & Language

The episode features an engaging, conversational back-and-forth between Ann and John, blending serious financial analysis with approachable humor (punning on “double” airplane output, banter about donuts, etc.), aiming to make complex trends relatable for everyday investors.

Summary Takeaways

• CLEAR: Stunning comeback story; pivoting from airports to healthcare; exceptional cash discipline; stock red hot after earnings.
• Joby Aviation: Regulatory progress and cash war chest ahead of rivals; Uber partnership puts them in Dubai’s skies soon; broader air taxi sector full of promise but not without risk or overheated valuation.
• Headline stocks: eBay targets Gen Z via Depop; Celsius and Krispy Kreme in head-to-head with coffee and donut consumption trends; Nvidia’s record quarter offset by sustainability doubts in the AI sector.

For more detail, listen directly to the segments as noted above for in-depth discussion or memorable exchanges.