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- [00:01]
Ann Barry
This episode is brought to you by White Claw Search. Great podcast pick friend. No surprises there. After all, you're all about finding the tastiest flavors out there, just like White Claw Surge. And with big bold flavors to enjoy like blood orange, BlackBerry, cranberry and more, it's time to go all in on taste. Unleash the flavor. Unleash White Claw Surge. Please drink responsibly. Hard seltzer with flavors 8% alcohol by volume. White Cloth Seltzer Works Chicago, Illinois.
- [00:29]
John Curto
Shares in Joby Aviation are taking off. We survey the air taxi makers flight path to FAA approval and a hotly anticipated customer launch. So is it farewell to coffee and a donut. We break down the battle for your morning buzz with earnings from Krispy Kreme and Celsius. And it's all becoming clear why the secure identity platform ticker. You saw a nearly 40% pop in how it's coming for the healthcare market next. For Thursday, February 26th, it's Brew Markets Daily and I'm Ann.
- [00:58]
Ann Barry
Foreign.
- [01:06]
John Curto
Details to come. But first, CEO of the Week is one of my favorite segments here on the show and never more so than when we have the CEO actually join us in studio for a chat. Well, back in November, we welcomed Karen Seidman Becker, CEO of Clear, to break down her growth plan for the secure identity services provider. And she said it would be by expanding its hallmark eye scanning entry points into more more airports and sports venues. You may have gone through Clear lines at stadiums and arenas and by rolling out its biometric access technology to a new end market, and that's consumer medical records. Well, to set the stage for the current moment, it's worth taking a brief look back at history. Seidman Becker bought the company out of bankruptcy in 2010. And while Not Clear's original founder, she certainly fundamentally refounded it. Let's hear her describe why. My grandparents were immigrants. My parents worked for the government. I'd been on Wall street for 15 years. It was extraordinary. I watched people build incredible businesses, products that became platforms. Apple, Amazon, Priceline, all of them. And so I don't know, I guess I don't have a fear of failure. And I ended up in bankruptcy court. Well, offices and walked out for six million dollars and a million dollars of legal fees with a company called Clear and the desire to build a secure identity platform. Well, roll forward 16 years and clear just reported blockbuster Q4 and full year earnings for 2025. Just a look at the numbers. Revenue for the year jumped nearly 17% to $901 million. With total booking growth accelerating in the fourth quarter to over 25% and adjusted EBITDA, that's a measure of profit, hit 262 million. That's a whopping 480 basis points of year over year margin expansion to 29%. And then free cash. FL year it reached over $340 million with an impressive 38 conversion of revenue. I'm getting technical here because these are the metrics we look at and the free cash flow is expected to grow at least another 28 for this year. So good is that cash generation that the company announced a 20 increase in its quarterly cash dividend plus an additional special cash dividend of $0.20 per share. And there's even more. The board also authorized 125 million dollar increase to its share repurch, doubling what was left of the planned buyback activity. So here's why this caught my eye. It's not just because it was a very good performance. With her Wall street background, CEO sideman Becker basically comes from a cash is queen mentality. We talked about it in our conversation and it's one that resonates with me. And when a company has been through the trauma of bankruptcy, trust me, liquidity is always top of mind afterwards. So Clear's focus on cash generation interestingly reflects very much its history and the specific training of its leadership, especially for a tech business. And they're not always so cash focused. And then from an operating perspective, this is exciting. There have been lots of updates that we've been looking out for. Our eyes have been peeled and Clear in this earnings report basically said it's been delivering on it. It expanded its e gates to 37 airports as of today and on track for network wide rollout in 2026. There's been a mobile app refresh aiming to help users plan when to walk to boarding and an extended partnership with American Express and its affluent cardholders. It's a very desirable demographic. Overall. Clear has grown to 38 million members, up over 31% year over year. And it's generating exactly the kind of revenue that the markets like. That's recurring subscription revenue with high gross margins. Clear has also been busy with its move into healthcare that had been previewed with us in November. And at the end of 2025 the company announced a contract with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. That's the CMS and it's the single largest payer for healthcare services in the United States. Now the deal is for Medicare.gov to integrate the Clear1 Secure Identity Platform into the Medicare portal's account creation and account recovery processes and for access to healthcare information. And in yesterday's earnings call, I went through the transcript. Seiden and Becker pointed to the partnership's focus on fraud prevention, something, by the way, that the White House has emphasized is a priority when it comes to federal spending. And you may remember that President Trump announced in his recent State of the Union address his, quote, war on fraud, to be led by VP JD Vance. We're back to the private sector. And this week Clear announced a new partnership with Mount Sinai, which is a massive healthcare provider system here in New York. And the deal is to provide employees and patients with digital channels such as check in kiosks and handhold tablets to access systems both for patient check in and also for ongoing care and medical record access. So CEO Karen Simon Becker has been busy since we spoke to her in November. The share Price soared nearly 40% yesterday, up overall 34% year to date, up more than 110% over the past year. We're going to keep on watching. Coming up, it's a bird, it's a plane, it's an electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. Us with more syllables, we look at Joby Aviation's position in the emerging air taxi space, plus ebay's newest bid on fashion. But first, a word from our sponsor, Charles Schwab. Trading at Schwab is powered by Ameritrade, bringing you an expanding library of education with even more ways to sharpen your trading skills. Access new online courses, insightful webcasts, articles, engaging videos and more, all curated just for traders.
- [06:44]
Ann Barry
Plus guided learning paths with content designed to fit your unique interests. No sifting to find exactly what you need so you can spend your time learning to trade brilliantly. Learn more@schwab.com trading well, John, one of
- [06:56]
John Curto
our favorite things on the show is getting feedback from the audience on what they want us to talk about. And we did get an email. We got a note from one of our listeners, Bella.
- [07:04]
Ann Barry
That's right, Bella in Colorado wrote. Hi Ann. I have been interested in evtol companies for a year now. I've been invested in them and was very excited when you had Archer CEO Adam Goldstein on the show. I'm curious about your thoughts on Joby Aviation, given that their share price is up 50% in the last year, while Archer's has fallen 15%.
- [07:24]
John Curto
Well, this note came in sort of a couple of days ago and we were really excited to get it because we knew that Joby's earnings were about to come up. So there would be some more information to share on the back of that report. And I got to say, I really enjoyed my conversation with Adam, the CEO of Archer, hoping to have him back at some point because we caught him right as some exciting announcements were coming out from that business too. Well, let's dig into Joby for the moment. Company reported earnings yesterday. Recently announced an expanded partnership with Uber, which we'll get back into in a moment. But John, give us a little background on Joby itself.
- [07:57]
Ann Barry
Ticker Joby on the New York Stock Exchange.
- [07:59]
John Curto
Job. Why I love it.
- [08:01]
Ann Barry
Job Y. You ain't got no alibi. Market cap near $10 billion. It's a California based transportation company developing an all electric vertical takeoff and landing air taxi. That's the EVTOL acronym you mentioned before. It aims to be an air taxi service in cities worldwide. Shares were up 5% today. On the back of earnings, reported revenue of $31 million, which nearly doubled. Estimates and adjusted earnings per share were a loss of 14 cents, which beat the expectations of a loss of 20 cents.
- [08:30]
John Curto
So just that acronym, the EVTOL, it's the electric vertical takeoff and landing. I wish they would just reference a helicopter, right? Because I mean, they don't have blades, but I do wish they would just make it a bit more intuitive. Very exciting technology. So much so that it's become clear that Even with that $10 billion market cap, this is a big company. It's certainly not based on. On revenue or profit. Right. So you just talk there about the quarterly earnings, 31 million sales and earnings clearly not mattering that much in terms of what's fueling valuation. Instead, investors are focusing on what is the outlook in terms of timing and ultimate positioning and revenue generation when this business actually gets to having a commercial launch. And the milestone along the way to doing that is obtaining Federal Aviation Administration certification for flights in the United States. So these regulatory milestones and all this sort of piloting, pun intended, of the product are really critical to seeing what moves the stock here.
- [09:27]
Ann Barry
Yeah, that's really important. In November, Joby announced it's testing the first aircraft built for quote, Type Inspection Authority, or tia. And that TIA status comes up very frequently in Joby's earnings highlights. They're the first FAA conforming aircraft for TIA to set to fly shortly and that all the aircraft required for TIA are now in production.
- [09:48]
John Curto
And tia, again, that's type inspection authority that specifically refers to plan, are basically in the final design and testing. This means they're really close. They can sort of See, the end is coming and they're going to take to the skies and potentially have people in them. So that's a really important sort of milestone to get to. Well, there is competition in the evtol space and there's a race at the moment to hit the commercial market before burning through too much cash. Now, analysts seem to be pretty positive at the moment. John on Joby's cash Runway, and that's his jargon for how much cash do you have on the balance sheet today? How much are you burning and by default, how long does it mean? That cash war chest you got, how long is it going to last for you? Well, Joby reported $1.4 billion in cash and short term investments as of the end of the fourth quarter. So that's December 31st. Plus the company did receive another net $1.2 billion earlier this month. So feeling pretty good about what that means. Now, the use of that money and what Joby says it plans to spend it on is partly to acquire a manufacturing facility in the Dayton Ohi. It's big. It's going to be more than 700,000 square feet. And the reason for doing that is that Joby wants to double production to four aircraft per month next year in 2027. So it's been doubling down on the real estate to be able to do that.
- [11:10]
Ann Barry
And this is all impressive. And, and let's talk about the reality of what this is. A double to four aircraft, that scaling seems very similar.
- [11:19]
John Curto
Double sort of obfuscates that it is only going from 2 to 4. From 2 to 4.
- [11:23]
Ann Barry
That seems, that seems like a real challenge. Of course that's a challenge for the industry, but here is the headline. While Joby is still awaiting FAA approval, it expects to carry its first commercial passengers in Dubai this year. So waiting on American approval. But then in other foreign air spaces, Joby is partnering with Uber for that launch. So let's talk through the process. As described in the press release, riders will simply open the Uber app and enter their destination in the where to bar. If their trip qualifies, Uber Air, powered by Joby, will appear as an option. With a single tap, the app seamlessly connects and books every leg of the journey, sending you an Uber black pickup and drop off.
- [11:58]
John Curto
This is luxury travel. This is a luxury experience, is an integrated luxury experience.
- [12:03]
Ann Barry
And then your flight experience. The all electric air taxi can transport up to four passengers flown by a commercial certified pilot. A certified commercial pilot. And the craft can move at speeds of up to 200 miles per hour in a range of up to 100 miles on a single charge. So my first thought hearing that again is about scaling up. There has to be be a certified commercial pilot each one of these aircraft.
- [12:27]
John Curto
Right.
- [12:27]
Ann Barry
That's different than an Uber driver. That simply has their driver's lift.
- [12:31]
John Curto
Well, at least for now. And let's talk about where these evto players often say they're going. They're clearly investing in autonomous. Right. There is a world in which there's a lot of discussion about pilotless flying in part for these are basically big drones. Right. And so whether for things like delivering packages, you know, or sort of non human cargo, then there's probably a shift to try and do that relatively quickly. But you're right, there need to be pilots very specifically trained with this kind of technology. And we're going to be able to see pretty soon, I think, where they're recruiting from, where they're training and get some more insight into that. And then just as a reminder, last year Joby acquired Blade. Remember you and I talked about it on the show, actually. And Blade is the traditional helicopter business in terms of the technology, but it has a very bougie business model. We see it, for example, shuttling folks from Manhattan to the Hamptons in New York. They also do quick hops over to the major airports. So it's a way to try and beat rush hour traffic. And as of this year, so those helicopter Blade rides are being integrated into the Uber app, which struck me as interesting because there'll be learning coming from that. Right. To make sure that that integrated experience of the car picking you up, taking you to the terminal and then you getting on your Blade actually works. They're getting their rips in.
- [13:45]
Ann Barry
Bella also mentioned Archer. Yeah, and so Archer is aiming for air taxi operation in Dubai this year, similarly, and has been named the official electric air taxi partner for the L A 2028 Olympics. So that's a few years off. But according to public documents, the company isn't yet in that TIA stage for FAA approval. And investors may be happy with Joby's approval rate, the cash it has on hand and that partnership with Uber.
- [14:10]
John Curto
The overall punchline being it perhaps it looks as though Joby at this point pulling away, getting ahead, perhaps getting there a little bit faster than Archer is. Which would explain the sort of deviation in the share price performance a little bit too. Also, just to address that point again on relev, relative share price performances. But one thing I would say is Arch's stock did see a 20% drop from its January highs And part of that is because there's been a number of research reports actually coming out and making this exact point, right. That there are sort of signs that perhaps Archer isn't getting the same speed with respect to moving through these regulatory milestones. And as a result there was a lot of short selling reports. So short sellers, many of you will know this, but this is where basically folks come out and say they're betting on the stock price falling. And so a lot of short sellers were actually coming out and saying that they believed in this thesis and justifying why they were betting against the Archer stock price. Just a final thought on this one because I do think it's fascinating. It's so interesting to see how both companies, Joby and Archer, are looking to debut in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. I've been to Dubai, I've been to Abu Dhabi. They really are leaning into the Evtol space. And so again, the air taxi operation there is supposed to be up and running before the L A Olympics. So we're going to have sort of a two year window to really take a look and see how does the technology work, what is the adoption like, are people afraid or unafraid to get into these vehicles? And I think it's just exciting. I think there's a lot. This is really interesting space to watch. That being said, the valuations seem a bit bonkers to me.
- [15:49]
Ann Barry
Yes, I'm looking forward to seeing it too. And Archer valued at a $5 billion market cap. About half of the much.
- [15:55]
John Curto
Yeah, exactly. And also with the similar characteristics of. It certainly is not with respect to current revenue. And again, that cash burn rate being something that's top of mind and looking at the two on a relative basis. Well, let's take a break and when we come back we'll take a spin through the headlines moving the markets today. Vaneck believes gold is evolving beyond a short term hedge into a more durable part of a portfolio. With strong central bank demand and ongoing global uncertainty, the case for gold remains compelling.
- [16:21]
Ann Barry
Gold miners can offer greater sensitivity to a rising gold price. As gold rises, miners revenues may grow faster than many of their operating costs, potentially expanding margins.
- [16:30]
John Curto
To capture that, check out GDX, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF. VanEck has been at this for a long time. They launched the very first gold equity fund back in 1968. Now GDX has an impressive 20 year track record and is a simple way to get diversified exposure to the world's top miners.
- [16:46]
Ann Barry
Learn more@vaneck.com brewgds that's vaneck.com brewgdx full fun disclosures in Podcast Description so good, so good. So good.
- [16:58]
John Curto
New spring arrivals are at Nordstrom Rack stores. Now get ready to save big with up to 60% off rag and bone, Marc Jacobs, free people and more. How did I not know Rack has Adidas? Cause there's always something new. Join the Nordic Club to unlock exclusive discounts. Shop new arrivals first and more. Plus buy online and pick up at your favorite Rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack there it is 4pm on the east coast, the closing bell because the markets are wrapping up for the day. Well, we don't have a ticker tape. Instead we're going to throw it over to our human ticker, our producer John
- [17:36]
Ann Barry
that's right, The S&P 500 finished down half a percent today. The Nasdaq was down 1.2% and the Dow finished flat. Some market headlines Shares in eBay were up 6% today after the company announced plans to lay off 6% of its workforce. Just last week, eBay said it would acquire Etsy's secondhand clothing marketplace Depop, for nearly $1.2 billion in cash.
- [17:57]
John Curto
Well, the deal should give ebay a greater leg up with consumers under the age of 34 who perhaps haven't grown up with ebay in the same way as some of the older shoppers for whom ebay really was sort of transformational. That under 34 year old demographic makes up about 90% of Depop's user base, while eBay CEO said Depop would also allow ebay to grow its presence in fashion, which has emerged as one of the company's fastest growing categories. In other news, shares and Celsius holdings ticker CELH were up over 7% today after the energy drink maker beat expectations for revenue and earnings in the fourth quarter.
- [18:33]
Ann Barry
Celsius is positioning itself less as an energy jolt and more like a daily coffee, highlighting that 52% of its repeat customers make five or more purchases at a time. Celsius CEO John Field Lee saying, quote, it isn't just about recruiting new consumers, it's about becoming part of that daily lifestyle and daily routine. And shares in Krispy Kreme ticker D nut shot up 28% today after the company reported improved margins in the fourth quarter as the chain's turnaround gained momentum.
- [19:01]
John Curto
So its revenue actually fell 3%, which reflected last year's decision to pull out of lower traffic and less profitable distribution points. And instead we've seen Krispy Kreme prioritize sales in locations that are actually with retail partners like Walmart, Target and Costco, where you've got sort of a sitting customer and a customer base to go buy instead.
- [19:19]
Ann Barry
And I bought this stock during the pandemic when I saw lines around the block at my Krispy Kreme drive thru. And despite today's jump, I'm still down 72% and not bullish on donut consumption.
- [19:29]
John Curto
Well, I'm a Dunkin Girl as we know and I actually love donuts so I am bullish on my own personal donut consumption. So it's so good they should be their own food grade.
- [19:39]
Ann Barry
Well, a different bit of digesting going on with the market. Spending the day trying to decide what to make of Nvidia, the world's most valuable company with a market cap of a whopping $4.5 trillion.
- [19:49]
John Curto
Well, by any reasonable measure, Nvidia's earnings last night were absolutely stellar. It had record full year revenue for 25 of $216 billion, up 65%. And then when you hone in on the fourth quarter, $68 billion of revenue and also guidance for this quarter of 78 billion. So look at that, a 10 billion do jump just three months later is what we're looking at here. So estimates being blown past for this quarter in terms of guidance by $5 billion. Nevertheless, shares were down over 5% today. This seems to be the story of Nvidia's share price at the moment. There was a sense in the market it was just too good to be sustainable given fears that AI capex announcements by Big Tech are facing increased investor scrutiny.
- [20:34]
Ann Barry
Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster wrote in a blog post that the disconnect between Nvidia's recent announcements and its stock performance comes down to whether investors believe the AI trade is nearing an end or just getting started.
- [20:47]
John Curto
Well, there was one nugget from the annual report which was flagged by Barron's. And then of course I nerded out. I went over to find Nvidia's actual 10K filing with the SEC to check this out myself too. And for the full year Nvidia invested a whopping $17.5 billion into quote, private companies and infrastructure funds, primarily to support early stage startups. Just think about that 17 and a half billion dollars effectively going into the startup world, showing just how much the innovation ecosystem really matters, particularly in the eyes of Nvidia, to make sure that future growth flywheels are set in motion. Well tomorrow on the show we have my Conversation with the renowned venture capitalist Bill Gurley. And John, you were here when Bill arrived. You did this in person. And it was very funny because after we've recorded, I remember walking out and you made a comment about our relative sizes.
- [21:42]
Ann Barry
Yes, absolutely. He is a tall man. And our audio engineer was in here adjusting the microphone higher than it's ever been. And then you, who are not as tall.
- [21:51]
John Curto
I'm really tiny. I'm quite small. Yeah. And he's six nine. Bill's six' nine.
- [21:54]
Ann Barry
Is that right?
- [21:55]
John Curto
Yeah.
- [21:55]
Ann Barry
Okay. So there was about a foot difference.
- [21:58]
John Curto
Yeah, just. Yeah, and then some. Yes, that's right.
- [22:00]
Ann Barry
Great conversation. But the visual was striking.
- [22:03]
John Curto
Yeah, the visual was striking. And I was sharing with John. This reminds me. So back in the day when I was working at an investment bank, I had a boss. Boss. It's quite early in my career. And he too was very, very tall. And as I said, I'm sort of tiny. And every holiday there was a holiday roast. And it meant that your people who worked for you could roast the person who worked directly, sort of, that they reported to. Right. A manager. And I remember the young person who worked for me at that point for the holiday roast decided to make a mock up of the movie poster for the Blind side. Do you remember this? And I was a little Sandra Book bullet person standing next to my then boss who was, you know, obviously the. The football player in that. And I was just reminded of that. Can we please do that? And we'll send it to Bill Gurley.
- [22:44]
Ann Barry
Yes, absolutely. And can we incorporate some sort of roasting into our offices here?
- [22:48]
John Curto
Absolutely not. Category. The roasting days are behind us. That's it for today's Brew Markets Daily.
- [22:53]
Ann Barry
Brew Markets Daily is hosted by Anne Barry and produced by John Curto, Targab de Latif and Emily Millarn. Our technical directors, Uchenwu Ogu. Jim Morzo is our audio engineer. The president of Morning Brew Inc. Is Devin Emmerich. If you have any feedback or company you'd like us to COVID leave a comment or send an email to brewmarketshoworningbrew.com
- [23:10]
John Curto
and wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter and tune in to Neil and me on Morning Brew Daily because I'm pulling double duty again tomorrow, first thing in the morning and also at the end of the day. So I'll see you back here tomorrow for Brew Market Same time, same place.
- [23:34]
Ann Barry
Lifelock. How can I help?
- [23:35]
John Curto
The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.
- [23:38]
Ann Barry
One in four tax paying Americans has paid the price of identity fraud.
- [23:41]
John Curto
What do I do? My refund, though.
- [23:43]
Ann Barry
I'm freaking out.
- [23:44]
John Curto
Don't worry.
- [23:44]
Ann Barry
I can fix this. LifeLock fixes identity theft guaranteed and gets your money back with up to $3 million in coverage.
- [23:51]
John Curto
I'm so relieved. No problem. I'll be with you every step of the way.
- [23:54]
Ann Barry
One in four. What was a fraud? Paying American. Not anymore. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com podcast terms apply.