Brew Markets – Episode Summary

Podcast: Brew Markets
Host: Ann Berry
Date: February 9, 2026
Episode: "Just Another Manic $MNDY & DraftKings and FanDuel’s Prediction Bet"

Overview

In this episode, Ann Berry unpacks key market stories: the turbulent earnings report from Monday.com ($MNDY), the shifting landscape in sports betting with FanDuel and DraftKings diving into prediction markets, the GLP-1 "weight loss drug wars," a major merger in offshore drilling, and Kroger’s new CEO. The tone is conversational, witty, and packed with sharp analysis and notable banter with producer John.

Monday.com’s Rocky Earnings and The “No-Touch” Model

[02:39 – 06:17]

• Theme: Monday.com posts strong Q4 results but the stock plummets 20+% as long-term guidance is pulled and forecasts fail to meet analyst expectations.
• Key Financials:
  • Q4 revenue: $340M (25% YoY growth, beats street)
  • Pulled 2027 guidance; 2026 revenue outlook ($1.45 - $1.46B) lags Wall Street by ~$300M
• What Went Wrong:
  • Pulled multi-year guidance sparks investor worry; “The company pulled its previous 2027 guidance on the earnings call... That was a long way of saying we just can't plan more than one year out. And the market absolutely hates that.” – Ann [03:32]
  • Cited “choppiness in the no touch demand environment” as a reason for limited visibility
• Business Model Under Pressure:
  • Traditionally thrived on a “self-serve, no touch” model—customers buying independently without a sales force.
  • “Yes, a bit choppy and... choppiness in the performance marketing of the company.” – Roy Mann, CEO [05:08]
  • Rising competition from intuitive generative AI tools (like Anthropic’s Claude), which offer similar solutions for small teams at lower cost.
• Ann’s Perspective:
  • “Small businesses with only a few employees are the most motivated to try free or low cost AI tools… I can completely see why Claude could be a feasible alternative for a very small group.” [05:55]
• Stock Impact:
  • Monday.com down 20% on the day, 48% YTD – “We're not even halfway into this month.” [06:01]

Sports Betting’s Next Disruption: Prediction Markets

[06:27 – 13:24]

• Super Bowl Betting Surge:
  • “Estimated that $1.8 billion was wagered legally on the game, which doesn't include the side bets and also the boxes...” – Ann [06:30]
• Sports Betting Companies Under Pressure:
  • FanDuel (owned by Flutter Entertainment, $27B market cap): Shares down 4.5% last 6 months, earnings expected down almost 50%. [07:49]
  • DraftKings ($13B market cap): Shares down 36% in 6 months, earnings and revenues projected to fall. [08:10]
• Why the Drop?
  • The rise of prediction market platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket) diversifies the gambling landscape and challenges the old guard.
  • "Now we're possibly seeing the disruptors get disrupted, right? We've got the emergence of these two companies, Kalshi and Polymarket." – Ann [08:32]
• Regulatory Landscape:
  • Supreme Court (2018) allowed state-by-state legalization; patchwork adoption leaves big states (CA, TX) still out.
  • Prediction markets sidestep these state rules by arguing they're not “gambling” per se.
  • Kalshi’s sports contracts now allowed by new CFTC chair Michael Selig: "He indicated that he's going to allow sports contracts to move forward. He's for it." – John [11:15]
• FanDuel & DraftKings Respond:
  • Both launched their own prediction market apps, gaining early traction even in states like CA and TX where traditional sports betting remains barred.
  • “If you can't beat them, join them approach to all this.” – Ann [11:35]
  • DraftKings partners with Crypto.com for digital prediction markets. [12:06]
• Bigger Trend – The “Degenerate Economy”:
  • “This is what [Howard Lindzon] was talking about: things converging in ways that would not have been anticipated six or seven or nine months ago.” – Ann [12:23]
  • “Prediction markets are going to be the future media.” – Quoting Lindzon [12:34]
• Vegas & The Future:
  • Curiosity over how Las Vegas fared during the Super Bowl amid a tougher year for tourism. [13:24]
  • Despite falling shares, DraftKings and Flutter both up on the day, with markets supporting the “if you can’t beat them, join them” pivot. [14:01]

GLP-1 Drug Wars: Novo Nordisk vs Hims & Hers

[15:27 – 16:57]

• FDA Cracks Down:
  • Hims & Hers stock plunges 20% after FDA vows to crack down on compounded GLP-1 drugs (used for weight loss), which Hims had marketed. [15:27]
• Lawsuit Drama:
  • Novo Nordisk sues Hims to block compounded versions of its weight-loss drugs, citing termination of a short-lived partnership after allegations of deceptive marketing. [15:56]
  • “If there are deep pockets to go up against, Novo is going to be lawyering up this one. It's going to be a tough one for Hims.” – Ann [16:14]
• Price Competition:
  • “It’s so interesting to see what the price of these GLP-1s are. Every month there's a new price target...” – John [16:28]

Mergers and Movers: Transocean & Kroger

[16:28 – 18:00]

Transocean Buys Valeris

• Deal Details:
  • All-stock deal for $5.8B, creating a 73-rig offshore drilling giant.
  • “The powerful combination is well timed to capitalize on an emerging multi-year offshore drilling cycle.” – CEO Keelan Amdesen [16:45]
• Market Reaction:
  • Valeris up nearly 30%, Transocean up 2%; “market's way of saying we're actually in favor of this deal.” – Ann [16:57]

Kroger’s New CEO

• Leadership Update:
  • Kroger names Greg Foran, ex-Walmart US CEO and Air New Zealand chief, as new CEO after previous exit over ethics investigation. [17:37]
• Foran’s Track Record:
  • “The man who fixed Walmart's grocery” per Fortune.
  • Credited with digital innovation and 20 consecutive quarters of comparable sales growth at Walmart. [17:59]
• Market Reaction:
  • Kroger stock jumps 5%. [17:37]
  • “Kroger is still the second biggest grocer in the United States by sales, with Walmart being the only bigger company.” – John [17:37]

Notable Quotes

• “That was a long way of saying we just can't plan more than one year out. And the market absolutely hates that.”
  — Ann [03:32], on Monday.com's withdrawn guidance

• “We're possibly seeing the disruptors get disrupted.”
  — Ann [08:32], on prediction markets challenging DraftKings and FanDuel

• “Prediction markets are going to be the future media.”
  — Quoting Howard Lindzon [12:34]

• “If there are deep pockets to go up against, Novo is going to be lawyering up this one.”
  — Ann [16:14], on GLP-1 lawsuit

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Monday.com earnings and AI disruption: 02:39 – 06:17
• Sports betting, prediction markets, and regulations: 06:27 – 13:24
• GLP-1 drug news (Hims & Hers/Novo Nordisk): 15:27 – 16:57
• Transocean/Valeris merger: 16:28 – 16:57
• Kroger CEO update: 17:37 – 18:00

Closing Thoughts

Ann Berry and team deliver a punchy, accessible look at market shakeups—from the existential threat AI poses to SaaS platforms, to how old and new players in sports gambling and healthcare are jockeying for position. Major moves (and setbacks) in leadership and M&A also get their due, highlighting the constant churn and challenge at the top of American business.

End of Summary