Brew Markets: Kevin O’Leary on a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund and Elon Musk

Podcast: Brew Markets (Morning Brew)
Host: Ann Berry
Guest: Kevin O’Leary
Date: September 1, 2025

Episode Overview

The Labor Day special episode dives into the surge in recent U.S. government investments in public companies, sparking debate about the prospects of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund. Ann Berry sits down with “Shark Tank’s” Kevin O’Leary—who brings his characteristic candor—discussing the wisdom (or folly) of such a fund, the precarious fate of TikTok amid geopolitical standoffs, and fresh takes on Elon Musk’s empire and investing philosophy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Stakes & U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund

• Backdrop: The federal government recently bought significant stakes in MP Materials (mining, driven by Pentagon investment) and Intel (semiconductors, via CHIPS Act funding), sparking speculation about a de facto or forthcoming U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund ([00:02]–[02:45]).
• White House Statement (Feb 2025): “...the federal government [should] establish a sovereign wealth fund to promote fiscal sustainability, lessen the burden of taxes...establish economic security...promote U.S. economic and strategic leadership...”

Kevin O’Leary’s Critique

• Doubts on Likelihood:

  "I actually don't think that will happen. And I'll tell you why. Number one, I don't think Congress will ever go for that on a bipartisan basis." —Kevin O’Leary ([02:45])

• On Principle:

  "I don't like governments picking winners and losers. They haven't been very good at it ever. Administrations change every four years or eight years... that's very short for sovereign wealth funds." —Kevin O’Leary ([02:56])

International Comparisons

• Norway vs. Canada:

  • Norway’s fund succeeded with a singular, apolitical mandate—retained principal and spent only dividends.
  • Canada’s governments, by contrast, mismanaged and depleted their fund, largely on social programs (“piss it all away”).
  • Quote:

    "Who are the richest people on earth today? Norwegians. ...Canada allowed their governments...to piss it all away, mostly on social programs, which never were effective at all. They have nothing compared to what the Norwegians have." —Kevin O’Leary ([04:09])

• Potential U.S. Model:

  • O’Leary proposes a “Norway play”: tap Alaska’s ANWR oil, charge royalties, and—by law—limit proceeds’ use to paying down national debt.

  • "The only use of those proceeds is to pay down national debt...you could actually get a hold of this problem and start to...get you more towards a balanced budget." —Kevin O’Leary ([05:11])

2. The TikTok Conundrum & Geopolitical Chess

• TikTok’s Future:
  O’Leary, part of a syndicate bidding for TikTok, details the complex U.S.-China negotiations ([06:45]–[11:18]).

  • Earlier belief: TikTok ban would be postponed; now expects a hard September 17th deadline due to changing Congressional sentiment.
  • Policy Signals:

    "The Ludnik signal is we've chopped TikTok out of the equation. We're more concerned about an overall package with China that may or may not include TikTok." —Kevin O’Leary ([07:24])

• ByteDance, Global Spillover:

  • ByteDance shareholders are largely indifferent to a U.S. ban, as they were post-India ban (market cap thrived regardless).
  • Domino risk: If the U.S. bans TikTok, Canada and other countries may rapidly follow, decimating TikTok’s value outside China.
  • Market Realism:

    "It's a domino effect of click, click, click...countries just shutting you off. And where does it end up? Where it started in China. Well, that's not worth anything..." —Kevin O’Leary ([09:43])

• Selling or Not:
  "If Xi doesn’t want to sell it, he’s just not going to sell it, period. And I don’t think he gives a rodent's rear end." —Kevin O’Leary ([10:48])

• Operational Adjustments:

  • O'Leary is hedging, shifting digital ad budgets to Meta, Google, cable, etc.
  • Advice:

    "I would say to anybody that's got their entire revenue stream tied to TikTok, I would wake up and smell the clock because it's coming." —Kevin O’Leary ([11:57])

3. Elon Musk, Tesla, and the Musk Method

• Ann Berry:
  "You've referred to him [Elon Musk] as the world's biggest industrialist... Is he getting pulled in too many directions?" ([13:35])

• O’Leary’s Take:

  • Not for Musk: His "executional skills" and unique management approach enable concurrent disruption.
  • True talent: Identifying and empowering outlier, high-intensity leaders—rapid mandates, no bureaucracy, relentless pace.
  • All-in Praise:

    "His team are not normal bureaucracies... They don't let anything get in the way. And if you can't work at their pace, they'll just roll over you." —Kevin O’Leary ([14:22]) "They don't f*** around. They just do it." —Kevin O’Leary ([15:49])

• On Possible Mega-Consolidation:

  • Musk could merge ventures (Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, X/Twitter) under a single holding for synergy, especially in data and compute.
  • Central Resource:

    "They all require massive amounts of compute power and AI and data centers. The more economic way is to consolidate these businesses." —Kevin O’Leary ([18:27])

• Biggest Competitive Moat:

  • Data centers and power contracts (particularly stranded natural gas for electricity)
  • Infrastructure constraints (U.S. is "15 years away" from sufficient small nuclear power)
  • O’Leary is personally investing in stranded nat gas, pipeline partnerships, and technologies for conversion to electricity ([19:58]–[20:37]).

4. Private vs. Public Asset Investing

• Ann Berry:

  • Observes O’Leary “lights up” when talking about private companies vs. ETFs—where he has much more influence ([20:37]–[21:28]).

• O’Leary’s Preference:

  • Eschews private equity funds for direct control ("I trust my own executional skills...finding people to drive mandates").
  • Quote:

    "I want [my teams] to be filthy rich...project-based...I have remarkable talents working for me. Incredible people. We work eight days a week." —Kevin O’Leary ([22:17])

• Alternative Asset Classes:

  • Watches global fund flows to spot new opportunities—contemporary art, watches, and now, seriously eyeing sports cards.
  • Investing Philosophy:
    • Big returns come in niche, ultra-scarce markets (e.g. $40M Pollocks, high-end rare watches).

    "The highest returns I've made on watches have been on watches like PIs, uniques from FP Journe or Audemars Piguet or certain Pateks that are very, very hard to get..." —Kevin O’Leary ([24:32])

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• On Sovereign Wealth Funds:

  "I don't like governments picking winners and losers. They haven't been very good at it ever." —Kevin O’Leary ([02:56])

• On Norway vs. Canada:

  "Canada allowed their governments...to piss it all away, mostly on social programs, which never were effective at all." —Kevin O’Leary ([04:09])

• On TikTok as a Political Pawn:

  "TikTok has now become a pawn in the China US negotiations..." —Kevin O’Leary ([06:27])

• On Xi and ByteDance:

  "If Xi doesn’t want to sell it, he’s just not going to sell it, period. And I don’t think he gives a rodent's rear end." —Kevin O’Leary ([10:48])

• Business Advice:

  "I would say to anybody that's got their entire revenue stream tied to TikTok, I would wake up and smell the clock because it's coming." —Kevin O’Leary ([11:57])

• On Elon Musk’s Leadership:

  "His team are not normal bureaucracies....if you can't work at their pace, they'll just roll over you...they don't f*** around. They just do it." —Kevin O’Leary ([14:22], [15:49])

• On Building Teams:

  "I want them to be filthy rich. We work eight days a week, we do stuff and we're doing it because we want to." —Kevin O’Leary ([22:17])

• On Investing in Scarcity:

  "The highest returns I've made on watches have been on watches like PIs, uniques from FP Journe or Audemars Piguet or certain Pateks that are very, very hard to get..." —Kevin O’Leary ([24:32])

Key Timestamps

• [02:45] — O’Leary critiques U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund concept
• [04:09] — Canada vs. Norway fund management
• [06:27] — TikTok’s fate and U.S.–China chess
• [10:48] — O’Leary on Xi’s attitude toward TikTok
• [13:35] — The Musk method and cross-company synergy
• [18:27] — Data centers as Musk’s biggest competitive lever
• [20:17] — O’Leary’s natural gas and infrastructure investments
• [22:17] — Team-building and private asset strategies
• [24:32] — Investing in alternative, scarce assets

Memorable Moments

• O’Leary’s blunt, biting dismissals of government investment wisdom and his colorful language regarding international policymaking.
• Lifting the veil on TikTok’s fate ("wake up and smell the clock") and the inner workings of Musk-led companies.
• His self-styled role as an alternative asset hunter, from Patek watches to Pollock art to sports cards.

This episode is an energetic tour through headline deals, geopolitical brinkmanship, and the minds of iconic entrepreneurs and investors—anchored by O'Leary's contrarian style and global perspective.