Brew Markets Daily – Episode Summary Date: November 5, 2025
Host: Ann Berry (with producer/contributor John Crateau)

Overview

This episode of Brew Markets Daily explores the current state of the U.S. consumer through McDonald's earnings, dives into key takeaways from Toast and Lemonade's results, recaps Rivian’s surprising quarter, and provides an accessible breakdown of a landmark Supreme Court case evaluating the President's emergency tariff powers. The conversation is lively, packed with data, informed commentary, and real-time reactions to market moves and regulatory developments.

McDonald’s Earnings: A Consumer Barometer

[00:02–03:00]

• Central Theme: McDonald’s, as a symbol of American consumerism, released earnings with important insights about U.S. consumers’ financial health.
  • Host Ann Berry frames McDonald’s as a “bellwether emblematic of the state of the US consumer itself.” (00:15)
• CEO Commentary:
  • Christopher Kamchinski (CEO) notes a “bifurcated consumer base”:
    • "QSR traffic from lower income consumers declining nearly double digits... In contrast, traffic growth among higher income consumers remains strong, increasing nearly double digits in the quarter." (01:01)
    • Warns that “pressures will continue well into 2026.” (01:23)
• Investor Reaction:
  • While McDonald’s missed slightly on profit expectations, sales grew 3% for the quarter.
  • Positive investor response—the stock was up over 2%.
  • Ann Berry: “Total sales rose 3% overall ... helped by the chain bringing back its snack wraps for the first time in nine years.” (01:36)
• Value Meal Strategy:
  • McDonald’s reintroduced extra value meals in September, aiming to win back lower-income customers.
  • Next quarter’s results will be a test of this approach.
• Interesting Fact: Coca-Cola maintains a dedicated “McDonald’s division” due to the sheer scale of their relationship. (01:36)

Earnings Spotlight: Toast

[03:37–08:14]

• Background: Toast provides end-to-end digital solutions (think payment, operations, marketing, loyalty) for restaurants.
  • John Crateau explains: “It’s not just the... point of sale. They’ve also got operations, digital ordering, marketing, loyalty programs, all for restaurants.” (04:26)
• Pivot & Growth: After laying off half its workforce during the pandemic, Toast rebounded as restaurants adopted contactless tech.
  • IPO’d in September 2021 at a $30B+ valuation.
  • Now at ~$22B market cap; “has pulled back as so many of those 2021 IPOs have done.” (05:29)
  • Locations: Up 23% YoY, ~156,000 venues now use Toast. (06:19)
  • Q3 Results: Revenue of $1.63B beat estimates; adjusted EBITDA at $176M suggests improving profitability.
• Notable Partnerships & Expansion:
  • Expanded partnership with Uber: enables Toast merchants to offer promotions and advertising via Uber Eats, with global intentions.
  • Surprising deal: Toast signed up Nordstrom, supplying POS systems for over 200 dining venues inside department stores.
• Stock Movement: Shares up 9% today, 25% YoY.

Memorable exchange:

• Ann Berry: “I’m going to hand it to this company... When you’ve got businesses that looked as though they really were at existential risk, when they pull off a pivot like that... is pretty extraordinary.” (05:29)

Earnings Spotlight: Lemonade

[08:19–14:45]

• Company Focus: Lemonade uses AI and machine learning to underwrite insurance policies and automate claims, starting with renters/home, now expanding aggressively into car insurance.
  • Ann: “Insurance has actually been at the forefront of data analytics... Their bread and butter is making sure that they price risk, that they can ascertain risk accurately.” (08:19)
• How It Works: For car insurance, Lemonade uses data from drivers’ phones—measuring real behaviors, not crude proxies (like credit scores or marital status).
  • Kamchinski: “...let us track how you use your phone while you are driving... your own phone sensors can help inform Lemonade as to how careful of a driver you actually are.” (10:15)
• Market Reaction:
  • Stock up 35% today and 116% YTD, suggesting retail enthusiasm.
• Fundamentals:
  • “Enforced premium” (premiums on active policies) up 30% YoY.
  • Customer count up 25% to 2.9M people.
  • Still unprofitable but expects profitability by 2026.
  • Major driver: lowering “loss adjustment expense” (claims handling) via automation.
• Skepticism from Wall Street:
  • Despite the hype, 8 of 10 analysts on Yahoo Finance rate it hold/sell.
  • Berry’s analysis: “Lemonade’s been a bit of a darling if you look at its stock price... But Wall Street’s not actually saying lean into this name, at least not at this valuation.” (13:01)
  • 30% of shares owned by retail investors; Lemonade a “retail investor darling.”
• Privacy Debate:
  • John: “I don’t know that I like that product... the idea of constantly being evaluated is something that I might not appreciate.” (11:17)
• AI Impact:
  • Lemonade uses AI “for marketing, to try to figure out how to price a product... and to try to attack this particular expense line,” (14:16) meaning automation in the claims process.

Rivian’s Earnings Surprise and the EV Market

[14:45–16:42]

• Headline: Rivian’s shares rocketed up to 25% on the day, beating both revenue and profit expectations.
  • "Gross profit was better than expected. Analysts had been thinking there could be a more than $60 million loss... It actually came in positive to the tune of $24 million." – Ann Berry (15:14)
• Sales Context: EV sales spiked due to tax credit expiry in September: Rivian sold 1300 vehicles in the quarter, up 32% YoY.
• Market Shifts:
  • The expiration of $7,500 tax credit caused a sales surge; drop-off expected in post-credit months.
  • Ford’s EV sales soared 85% YoY in September, but fell 25% in October after the credit expired.
• Product Roadmap:
  • Focus now on R2—the midsize, lower-priced SUV.
  • Completed R2 body shop; hope is R2 captures the “largest market opportunity” (16:10).
• Broader EV Competitive Struggle:
  • Traditional automakers like GM struggle to make affordable, mass-market EVs in scale.
  • Tesla’s “affordable” new model debuted with mixed reviews.
• Memorable moment:
  • Ann’s aside on the high-stakes Elon Musk compensation vote for Tesla ($1T package), with big funds publicly opposed. (16:42)

Supreme Court Case: Presidential Tariff Powers

[18:34–22:43]

• Case Overview:
  • Supreme Court hears arguments on whether the President may unilaterally impose tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—a law not previously used for tariffs.
  • Trump administration cited “national security” (including the fentanyl crisis) as a basis for tariffs.
• Legal Stakes & Arguments:
  • Challenge: Critics (including states, trade groups, small businesses) argue this stretches “emergency” powers, since tariffs are taxes, which should be Congress’s prerogative.
  • Lower courts agreed—IEEPA doesn’t grant the President this economic authority.
  • Counterpoint: If embargoes are allowed, why not tariffs?
  • Ultimate issue: How far can executive power go in trade policy?
• Economic Stakes:
  • If tariffs are struck down, $190B in collected levies and related investments (e.g., South Korea’s $350B US shipyard commitment) become a logistical nightmare to unwind.
• Market/Policy Attention:
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Besant: If these tariffs are blocked, “others will be invoked instead,” citing Section 232.
  • Packed hearing: Treasury Secretary, Commerce Secretary, USTR, two Senators all attended, underscoring the stakes.
• Implications:
  • Supreme Court’s decision (expected in several weeks) could redefine the President’s trade powers.
  • Ongoing analysis and commentary expected as the legal process unfolds.

Ann Berry: “This moment... in the Supreme Court is a massive, massive legal moment... [with] huge implications.” (21:38)

Quick Market Roundup

[22:43–23:53]

• Major indices: S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ all closed higher.
• Jobs Data:
  • Absent federal jobs data (shutdown), ADP reports private sector jobs up by 42,000 in October — a turnaround.
• AMD Shares:
  • Up 3% after a solid earnings release (data center revenues up 22% to $4.3B).

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Ann Berry (on McDonald’s):
  • “Not just a symbol of global American consumerism, but a bellwether emblematic of the state of the US consumer itself.” (00:15)
• Christopher Kamchinski (McDonald’s CEO):
  • “QSR traffic from lower income consumers declining nearly double digits... In contrast, QSR traffic growth among higher income consumers remains strong...” (01:01)
• Ann Berry (on Lemonade):
  • “Lemonade’s been a bit of a darling if you look at its stock price... [but] Wall Street’s not actually saying lean into this name, at least not at this valuation.” (13:01)
• John Crateau (on Lemonade data tracking):
  • “I don’t know that I like that product... the idea of constantly being evaluated is something that I might not appreciate.” (11:17)
• Ann Berry (on Supreme Court case):
  • “This moment... in the Supreme Court is a massive, massive legal moment... which is why the courtroom was physically packed with observers.” (21:38)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:02–03:00 – McDonald’s earnings & consumer insights
• 03:37–08:14 – Toast: Resilience, recovery, Uber partnership, Nordstrom deal
• 08:19–14:45 – Lemonade: AI insurance, auto expansion, analyst skepticism, privacy debate
• 14:45–16:42 – Rivian: Quarterly beat, EV market disruption, R2 anticipation
• 18:34–22:43 – Supreme Court: Trump tariffs, constitutional limits of executive power, market reaction
• 22:43–23:53 – Market wrap: Indices, jobs data, AMD earnings

In sum:
This Brew Markets episode is a concise, well-contextualized survey of market-shaping events: the evolving consumer landscape, disruptive companies in financial tech and insurance, up-and-down EV fortunes, and an under-the-radar but critically important legal battle at the Supreme Court with vast economic and political stakes. Ann Berry guides the conversation with sharp analysis, skepticism, and wry asides, making even arcane policy accessible and interesting.