Brew Markets – Episode Summary

Podcast: Brew Markets
Release Date: December 9, 2025
Host: Ann Berry
Episode Title: NVIDIA’s Kickback: Don’t Call It an Export Tax & AutoZone’s Muffled Earnings

Overview

This episode dives into a whirlwind day across markets, focusing on three blockbuster stories:

1. The latest on the U.S. government’s “revenue sharing scheme” with American chipmakers exporting to China, specifically NVIDIA, AMD, and others—a major update at the intersection of tech, trade, and geopolitics.
2. A close look at AutoZone, whose earnings were hit by tariffs and margin pressures despite solid underlying sales growth—opening a broader conversation on the auto parts sector.
3. The market’s reactions to updates from Toll Brothers, Campbell’s, CVS, and Pfizer, with a particular eye on how they’re adjusting to economic headwinds and shifting consumer trends.

Ann Berry, with occasional banter from producer John, brings her sharp analysis and candid market takes throughout.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NVIDIA’s “Revenue Sharing” with the U.S. Government

[01:03 – 05:47]

• Background:

  • In August, NVIDIA and AMD agreed to a 15% revenue share with the U.S. government on AI chip sales to China as a workaround for export controls imposed for national security reasons.

• What Changed:

  • President Trump announced (via Truth Social) that NVIDIA can now ship its upgraded H200 chips to "approved customers" in China—if the U.S. gets a higher 25% cut of the revenue.
  • The Department of Commerce will apply the same approach to AMD, Intel, Broadcom, and other major chipmakers.

• Open Questions:

  • It’s unclear if China actually wants these expanded (but still restricted) chip exports, especially since NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang says Huawei now offers “probably comparable” AI chips ([04:17]), and Chinese giants like Alibaba and Baidu are racing to develop local alternatives.

• Legal and Semantic Nuance:

  • Ann breaks down why these payments are called “revenue sharing” and not “export taxes.”
    • “Article 1, Section 9, Clause 5 of the US Constitution prohibits Congress from laying taxes and duties on articles exported for national security or policy reasons… The T word is heavily loaded.” ([04:44])
    • NVIDIA and peers are going along, “playing ball … rather than calling them out as export taxes.”

• Market Reaction:

  • “Nvidia stock nudged down today. AMD pretty flat. Looks as though the market’s still figuring out whether China will in fact lean in to buy.” ([05:28])

Notable Quote:

• “Never a dull moment in the trade wars and that endlessly lively intersection of the markets and politics that we love to cover here on Brew Markets.” — Ann Berry ([05:16])

2. AutoZone’s Earnings: A Tariff-Troubled Sector

[05:47 – 11:44]

• Earnings Recap:

  • Revenue up 8.2% YoY to $4.6B but missed expectations.
  • Same-store sales up for a sixth straight quarter (5.5% growth).
  • Earnings ($31.04/share) and operating profit ($784M) both missed estimates; this marks AutoZone’s sixth consecutive earnings miss.

• The Tariff Impact:

  • Tariffs have forced AutoZone (and competitors) to increase prices for consumers.
    • “They have been increasing prices because of tariffs. They’ve been passing that cost along to the consumer.” — John ([07:23])
  • Not a glamorous business, but massive in scope:
    • 6,666 U.S. stores, 770 international locations; steady pace of new openings.

• Competitive Landscape:

  • AutoZone, O’Reilly Automotive (market cap $80B, 6,500+ locations), and Advance Auto Parts (market cap $3B, 4,300 locations), all saw share prices drop today (AutoZone -8%, O’Reilly -4%, Advance -7%).
  • Market share war is heating up—AutoZone’s CEO Phil Danielle declares intention to “aggressively open stores over the remainder of the fiscal year as we continue to focus on getting market share.” ([08:25])

• Analyst/Investor Disconnect:

  • Ann questions if repeated analyst misses are from company performance or faulty Wall Street projections:
    • “When you miss earnings expectations for six straight quarters, is it the company’s outlook that’s squirrely or is it just the analyst community not getting their projections quite right?” ([08:37])

• Consumer/Experience Insight:

  • Despite broader e-commerce trends, AutoZone’s business is still deeply reliant on customers seeking in-person expertise:
    • “That DIY element is really important … you want someone to say, ‘No, this is the right [part] for you.’” ([10:12])

• Stock Performance:

  • Up 8% YTD, up 205% over five years, despite a tough 2025 so far.

Notable Moment:

• Ann teases John as the archetypal DIYer—“I can totally see you, by the way, producer John in AutoZone browsing around chatting up one of the store associates trying to get their take on something.” ([11:02])

3. Toll Brothers: Luxury Housing’s “Soft” Market

[11:44 – 15:34]

• Earnings Recap:

  • Toll Brothers: market cap $13B, shares up 8% YTD, up 200% over five years, but down 2–4% on the day.
  • Home sales revenue: $3.4B on 3,400 units (avg. sale ~$1M).

• Housing Market Analysis:

  • Despite high interest and mortgage rates, demand for high-end homes is softer.
    • CFO admits, “Given soft demand across many markets, we remain focused on running our business in a disciplined manner.” ([12:31])
    • Ann notes, “The average age of the first-time home buyer is now up at 40 years old. … This is a big ticket… for a first-time home, right?” ([13:53])

• Luxury Insulation:

  • CEO Douglas Yearly’s thesis: luxury buyers are less impacted by affordability pressures.
    • “Our fourth quarter and full year results demonstrate that our luxury business is differentiated as we serve a more affluent customer who is less impacted by the affordability pressures.” ([13:58])

• Strategic Moves:

  • Toll Brothers is exiting the multifamily market, selling a chunk of its portfolio for $347M (sale now delayed), to focus on single-family homes.

• Bigger Picture:

  • Summer NAR data: sales of homes above $1M up 7% YoY versus under 1% across the broad market.
  • Cautious optimism for 2026 driven by expectation of Fed rate cuts.

Notable Quote:

• “There are signs of confidence that the market is going to come back to a slightly more robust, higher velocity set of circumstances.” — Ann Berry ([15:34])

4. Quick Hits: CVS, Campbell’s, Pfizer

[18:32 – 22:47]

CVS

• Investor Day: stock up 3% on strong guidance, leaning into Medicare and pharmacy services integration (Oak Street acquisition).
• Ann’s take: “It’s incredibly dense… had to print it out, get a strong cup of coffee and wade my way through it for everybody.” ([19:45])

Campbell’s

• Stock down 3.5% on weak earnings, declining sales in all major brands save for Rao’s pasta sauce.
• Campbell’s vertically integrates Rao’s supply.
• Ann highlights industry-wide trend: “We’re seeing … food companies… split themselves into places where they have either a real superpower, a real competitive edge, or splitting out the lower growth categories and brands.” ([21:24])

Pfizer

• Signs $2.1B licensing deal with China’s Yao Pharma for an obesity pill, after last month’s $10B acquisition bid for Metcera.
• Pill targets the GLP-1 pathway like Novo Nordisk, but is early-stage; “it could literally take years to reach patients, if at all.” ([22:47])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “My administration will always put America first.” — President Trump ([paraphrased, 03:54])
• “Never a dull moment in the trade wars and that endlessly lively intersection of the markets and politics that we love to cover here on Brew Markets.” — Ann Berry ([05:16])
• “When you miss earnings expectations for six straight quarters, is it the company’s outlook that’s squirrely or is it just the analyst community not getting their projections quite right?” — Ann Berry ([08:37])
• “Average age of the first time home buyer is now up at 40 years old. … This is a big ticket… for a first-time home, right?” — Ann Berry ([13:53])
• “Campbell’s … makes ‘highly processed food for poor people.’” — Ann Berry, quoting a former IT executive ([19:59])
• “Pfizer stock ticked down slightly on the news. Investors really must be wondering at this moment how much more Pfizer is going to spend going after this and when the return is actually going to come.” — Ann Berry ([22:47])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• NVIDIA/Export Tax Story: [01:03 – 05:47]
• AutoZone’s Earnings Breakdown: [05:47 – 11:44]
• Toll Brothers and Luxury Housing: [11:44 – 15:34]
• CVS Investor Day & Campbell’s Recap: [18:32 – 21:24]
• Pfizer Obesity Pill Deal: [21:24 – 22:47]

Episode Tone

Engaged, incisive, and conversational. Ann Berry mixes sharp financial analysis with wry humor—never shying from complicated details (or a good pun: “Let’s switch gears, pun intended…” at [11:02]). The episode balances actionable market insights with relatable discussion, making dense topics lively and accessible.

Use this summary to catch up on today’s most interesting market stories and the strategic moves of big U.S. companies—all in Ann Berry’s trademark style.