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Anne Barry
Many employees can't afford a hefty medical bill that pops up out of the blue. But it happens. And employees who are financially stressed are understandably more likely to be distracted at work, costing their employers greatly in lost productivity. Luckily, Aflac plans help with out of pocket expenses not covered by health insurance and can be offered at no direct cost to businesses. Learn more@aflac.com Frumarkets that's aflac.com Frumarkets JM Smucker shares in the food conglomerate surging on earnings, we look at one product moving needle and hint. It doesn't have a crust. It's money Mover day. That's right, every Tuesday. And Eric Hirsch, co CEO of Hamilton Lane, joins me for this one to discuss the evolving relationship between private and public markets, including those proposed changes to American retirement funds that we've been hearing so much about. And OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is heading to Wall Street. That's as the AI race quickly becomes an IPO sprint for Tuesday, June 9, it's brew markets Daily and I'm Anne Bar Foreign. More market details to come, but first, the race to dominate Artificial intelligence is now a sprint to Tap Wall Street. OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, has confidentially filed paperwork for an initial public offering that comes just one week after its chief rival Anthropic, the company behind Claude the, submitted its own confidential IPO paperwork to the sec. Well, a confidential filing allows companies to begin the SEC review process in private before publicly releasing detailed financial information. But in a cheeky post on its website, OpenAI said, quote, we recently submitted a confidential S1. That's the SEC filing. We expect it to leak, so we're just announcing it. We have not decided on timing yet. It may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it's a complicated set of trade offs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best. Well, as one of the most watched companies in the world right now, the assumption that details of OpenAI's filing would leak is probably a fair one because this is a major move for a company that we may remember was founded as a non profit research lab in 2015 and now in a somewhat controversial mission switch, serves hundreds of millions of users worldwide in in a decidedly for profit fashion. Well, investors as we know have poured enormous sums into OpenAI, with recent funding rounds valuing the company at more than $850 billion, with some analysts speculating that an IPO could hit the trillion dollar valuation mark. Not far off expectations for Anthropic, by the way, whose most recent funding round valued that company at roughly $965 billion. Well, a race to IPO looks like it's unfolding as pure play AI companies. There are others waiting in the rush to tap liquidity before SpaceX and a flood of massive tech offerings force investors to make difficult choices around which stocks to back. And then, of course, another consideration is the war for talent, with employees at the AI juggernauts eager to know when they'll be able to cash out at least part of their equity awards. Well, whether for them or for the venture capitalists who've invested in OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX over the years, the shift to life as a public company will be a huge adjustment when it comes to tracking the value of their stakes in real time. The market narrative is wildly split on whether these IPOs are likely to sustain price growth, with those who are more cautious pointing to historical data that shows tech listings often experience a massive pop on day one. But when you take a look at the data, over 70% of tech companies underperform the broader market in their first 12 to 36 months. Of public life enthusiasts, of course, saying this is a new industrial revolution and that it's different this time, we're going to keep on watching. Coming up in a moment, a spin through the headlines that are moving the markets today, including a $10 billion drug company acquisition that has quote Multi Blockbuster potential. But first, this episode is brought to you by Public John how do you make sure you're up to date on market activity?
John Gratteau
Easy. I simply don't get enough sleep.
Anne Barry
Well, maybe you can rest easier with Public Their investing platform helps you create agents that can monitor market, manage your cash and execute your trades. Just enter a prompt, approve the workflow, and put your agent to work.
John Gratteau
And with Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and more, all while accessing industry leading yields.
Anne Barry
So don't sleep on Public Sorry, I couldn't resist. To learn more, Simply head to public.com brewmarkets that's public.com brewmarkets paid for by
John Gratteau
Public Investing Full Disclosure in Podcast Description
Anne Barry
well, in a moment, a deeper look at the potential impact from the pipeline of blockbuster tech IPOs with today's money Mover. But before we get there, a few headlines from the day's trading session, starting
John Gratteau
with earnings results from JM Smucker Ticker sjm. Because with a name like Smucker's it's gotta be good. Shares in the food and beverage company home to Jif, Hostess and Meow Mix are up nearly 10% after the company beat earnings and revenue expectations.
Anne Barry
Coffee, which includes the Folgers brand, was a standout performer with sales up 12% year over year, aided by higher prices. And then there's Uncrustables, which we've discussed in surprising depth on this show. Still having a remarkable run, sending the company's away from home segment up 12%. Also.
John Gratteau
Yes, apparently kids and athletes love that product. Looking ahead, the company anticipates sales to decline nearly 4% this year as Smucker's expects to lower coffee prices as its own input costs come down.
Anne Barry
And and as a programming note, this Friday on the show, I'll be joined by Todd Kaplan, chief marketing officer of Kraft Heinz, to talk about that giant food company's brands that includes Oscar Mayer and Jell O. And we're going to talk about how Todd markets a massive food conglomerate and what the 150 year old company is planning for America's 250th birthday that's coming up this Friday.
John Gratteau
Now to other market headlines. This from the world of mergers and acquisitions. Shares in US Based drug maker New Valent ticker NUVL are up nearly 40%.
Anne Barry
That's after GSK, Britain's second largest drug maker, announced plans to acquire the company in a $10.6 billion deal. The agreement values New Valent at about 124 bucks a share. That's a 40% premium to its last closing price for GSK.
John Gratteau
The deal would mark its largest acquisition in around a decade and could bolster its oncology pipeline through new Valence portfolio, which includes two late stage lung cancer treatments that GSK says have quote, multi blockbuster potential. GSK shares are trading up over about 1% today.
Anne Barry
And finally, as I explored at the top of the show, OpenAI and Anthropic have both made headlines for their recent IPO filings and are racing to tap into Wall street funds and retail investors too, by the way. But in the meantime, Anthropic just finalized one of the largest private credit deals in history.
John Gratteau
The $35 billion deal led by Apollo and Blackstone will help fuel Anthropic's growth plans, specifically through funding the purchase of Alphabet developed ch. Of course, there has been concern lately that the AI boom has overextended, played out in last week's semiconductor sell off led by Broadcom. Shares in broadcom, still down 20% in the last week but deals like this one with Anthropic suggest some of the largest private credit investors are still betting on big tech build outs.
Anne Barry
Well, in a moment, my conversation with Eric Hirsch, co CEO of Hamilton Lane and this could not be more timely when you consider that blockbuster deal just announced. Again, that's Apollo and Blackstone looking to fund some of Anthropics activity. Well, Eric expresses his concern that the public markets have gotten fad oriented on a handful of big tech plays and discusses what the repercussions there are for the private markets. So we discuss private credit and where capital is flowing to in alternatives. Next, credibly topical money mover conversation coming up right after this, the SpaceX IPO, potentially the largest public offering in history. It's meant to be happening this Friday. To some it's a welcome sign that the IPO remains wide open. And to others it's just another giant deal pulling capital into directions that are somewhat up for debate. Well, to break it down for today's money movers conversation, I invited Eric Hirsch onto the show. He's the co chief executive officer of Hamilton Lane, itself a publicly traded company, but it's a private markets investment firm with over a trillion dollars, a trillion in assets under management and supervision. Well, Eric has years of experience inside private funds, the deals and the data also that are driving moments of like this. And during our conversation he pushes back on the recent beating that private credit has been taking in the press. He comments on the possibility of private assets being introduced to Americans 401ks as well as their self directed retirement funds. And he discusses the growing divide between software investors and portfolio companies that are adapting to an AI world, while there are others who are might be out there, quote, just standing in the street waiting for the bus to hit them. It's a very topical conversation about all things at the intersection of private and public markets with a sprinkling of technology thrown in. So it's about where capital is likely to be moving next. So Eric, given your unbelievable vantage point, could you comment on the big IPO that we're expecting this week, which is SpaceX. And when I talk to folks in the industry I grew up in, which is private equity, there's sort of two sentiments out there and people are pretty binary about it. Either they say this is great, the IPO markets are open, right? It's a sign that exits are finally going to come for private equity firms that have been waiting, waiting, waiting to sell their businesses. And you've got others saying so head in hands, this is going to drain liquidity out of the public markets. And in fact this is like the opposite of a good time to try and IPO and exit. Where do you land on that spectrum of perspectives?
Eric Hirsch
I'm not sure I'm at either extreme because I think there's some truth to both. But if you put one camp versus the other, I'm more in the latter. I think this is taking so much capital, so much time and attention and so much headspace for retail investors that I think net net, I don't think that's an enormous positive for the private markets.
Anne Barry
So what does this say to you about the thesis and the narrative that's been going around for a while that it is now so attractive to stay private for so long for many exciting companies? Is this a moment where the IPO is back? Does this say that this is a proof that once you hit a certain size, a certain valuation, you have no choice but you have to go public?
Eric Hirsch
I'm not sure it says that although at these size levels the amount of capital opportunities that are going to exist are going to be few and far between. I think the question that I'm much more interested in right now is I suspect this IPO will price well. Talk to me in a year from now as to where the stock is trading because if you look at some of these businesses, it's very clear that we're willing to ignore fundamentals. This is a non cash flow positive business and this is all about what people believe is going to happen in the future. And that might be great and all those things may happen. But generally the public market can get very fad oriented. And right now I think we're very fad oriented on a handful of big tech plays that everyone is an enamored that everyone's enamored with today. And I want to know whether they're going to stay enamored a year from now. Because if they're not, then what's really happened is the private investors are the one that will have made all the money on these companies and they will have sold out to the public investors who will have done very poorly. And I think that dynamic of can both do well and for both to do well, this stock needs to trade well for years to come. And therefore the privates have done really well, the publics can do well. We've seen plenty of examples where that's happened. And so that's a healthy outcome. If what we instead see here is public investors end up getting crushed because this comes out at way too high of a price and then normalizes, then it's going to be privates did great and publics did poorly.
Anne Barry
Well, let's talk about the prospect of privates doing great because that has not been the headline catching people's attention, frankly over the last year and specifically private credit has taken a real beating reputationally. I don't think all of it's been fair. But talk to us about what investors are saying to you, Eric, about private credit at this moment in time.
Eric Hirsch
I think people are swept up in what has been just an avalanche of headlines but very little data. And so we're seeing lots of doom and gloom reports Gates going up, redemptions rising on these private credit evergreen funds. A lot of pain in BDC world. But here's what we're not seeing. We're not seeing rising default rates. We're not seeing loads of bankruptcies. We're not seeing loads of companies that are switching from cash pay to picking. Those are fundamental credit problems and we're not seeing those. And if you look at even the funds that have been hit hard with Gates and BDCs under pressure, if you look at the underlying performance of their assets, it's been good. So I've never seen such a wild disconnect between kind of panic headline, but devoid of hardcore data. We've seen a handful of very public private credit issues. Ironically, most of them were underwritten by big banks, not by actual private credit firms, but beyond that. And we've heard people tell us that there might be more cockroaches other places, but we're not seeing it in the data.
Anne Barry
Let's talk about those people because you've just sort of paraphrased Jamie diamond, of course, the CEO of JP Morgan. So the voices that are coming out and saying there is something to worry about when it comes to private credit are extremely influential and they do have access to a lot of data. Eric. So when you say we're not seeing in the actual information set the things that would typically worry those of us who are invested in private credit, where's Jamie Dimon's perspective coming from? Do you think so?
Eric Hirsch
I don't know. I don't know where it's coming from. But I think what's been missing is you've had a lot of very high profile CEOs or asset management heads who are talking about this. But I'm not seeing them providing data. I'm not seeing them point. I'm hearing them talk about problems, I'm hearing them talk about potential issues, but I'm not seeing Them sort of backing that up with the data point or the chart that says, and here's specifically what I'm worried about. Having companies that are swept up in fraud problems, that's not great, but that happens. That's unfortunately the reality of business. But a few of those episodic issues to me does not translate into something that is thematically problematic. I want to see data if we're going to talk about thematics.
Anne Barry
So if we haven't seen the data that shows stress in the credit, private credit space, what kind of data have you seen? Eric, when it comes to the ability of firms to raise new private credit funds, how's the fundraising cycle going for that particular asset class at the moment?
Eric Hirsch
So I think you got to think about that asset class into two pieces as it relates to fundraising. There is the traditional institutionally oriented, closed end traditional funds that we would think of as being kind of the private markets. So that's a four or five year investment period, 12 year fund life, all institutionally backed. And then over here we have capital that's getting raised in more of these evergreen formats that is a mix of institutional capital and individual capital. Where we've seen most of the pain and fundraising challenges is on the latter, not the former. Institutional investors continue to put meaningful capital into the space, so they're not running away from private credit. Where we've seen the big withdraws and some of the fundraising challenges has really been dominated by the individual investor. And I think unfortunately that investor is just much more susceptible to headlines, whereas the institutional investor is really diving into the fundamentals and they're saying we continue to like what we see, we continue to like exposure to this asset class and we're continuing to invest.
Anne Barry
And what have you seen specifically within Hamilton Lane? Because I do recall Hamilton Lane launched an infrastructure fund that was accessible to retail investors. What have you seen there in terms of either inflows into that fund from retail investors or on the flip side, folks getting out.
Eric Hirsch
So we've continued to have very strong net positive flows. We have a variety of these strategies. So we have evergreen products that are credit, multistrat, infrastructure venture. So a variety. Our view is that asset class is becoming much more wide open using this structure. And again, those flows today are coming from a mix of individual and institutional. For us at Hamilton Lane, we're getting about 25% of our flows coming from institutions into this space. Whereas if we went back five years ago, institutions only used closed end drawdown funds. And that shift in migration into this new product line is changing in fact, we also launched a new credit fund that was actually anchored by a bunch of institutional investors and it's available to individual investors. So I think what we're seeing is Evergreen Products are becoming more of a core part of investor portfolios. Regardless of whether you're individual or institutional, I think that's going to happen. There's going to be product that's available across the sub strategies, that's going to be normal and people will be able to build private market portfolios using these kinds of vehicles.
Anne Barry
Would you mind commenting, Eric, on one headline that got a ton of attention and everyone in the private equity space was very excited and that was the executive order that was signed in the White House to effectively make private capital, private assets more accessible to retirement funds. And you know, there's huge excitement that's it. The 401k is coming to private equity. But I feel as though that's sort of quietened down over the course of this year. What is actually the latest on that front?
Eric Hirsch
Well, I think with all things there's a big difference between kind of an executive push and, and execution. I think we will get there and I think we should get there. If we sort of step back and think about this at a macro level. You've got a huge population of Americans who are trying to save for retirement. Those of them that retired as a teacher, as a worker at a huge corporation, they have the benefit of a pension and those pensions have benefited enormously from their exposure to the private markets. That's a core part of that portfolio. So if you're an American worker that is deriving your retirement from a pension, you're in the private markets. But if you're an American worker that has to do self directed retirement savings, you've been completely kept out of the private markets. So you've got a big inequality factor with that. And I think there's a recognition that that's not good, that this is too big of an asset class to have some people able to invest and some people not able to invest. So I think at a macro, trying to equalize that, normalize that seems like a really good thing. The micro, however, is what are the vehicles, what are the regulations, what are the mechanics? Because as you well know and your audience well knows, we can rebalance and move around our 401k with pretty good frequency. And we can do that sometimes daily if we so choose. That's going to require more daily pricing for private market assets. Something that's not so normal today, but it's going to have to become a thing. And you're going to need a lot of regulation around that because by definition, you're going to have to make a judgment because there's not a market for those private assets. And so how you come up with a fair market value and doing that in a way that is acceptable and then doesn't sort of open people up to endless lawsuits or debates about whether the valuations are accurate is going to be essential in order for this to move forward.
Anne Barry
So given your position, Eric, what's going on? I mean, you're exposed to so much. You're so close to the hub of activity. Is lobbying happening in the background?
John Gratteau
Yes.
Anne Barry
Yeah, it is happening. I mean, you still, I remember there's
Eric Hirsch
lobbying education, there's a lot of regulatory discussion happening because again, everyone's kind of agreeing at the very top of the discussion. And then once we sort of get down into more of a detailed thing of, okay, well, specifically, how are we going to handle this issue? There's not agreement on that and there's not an agreement around mechanics. And that's what is taking place right now. I think you're more likely to see the initial foray into that space be combination products that are a combination of publics and privates sitting in one vehicle to help deal with some of the liquidity functionality, some of the marking issues, versus believing that I think the first foray into that space is going to be what you and I think of as a very classic private equity fund. I think that's not so likely.
Anne Barry
Can we talk a different area about a different area of the private markets, Eric? And it's at that intersection of both equity and credit. The funds that got a lot of exposure to software are those that have had some of the toughest wraps in the headlines and for those that are publicly listed getting the toughest repercussions for their share prices. What is your perspective just given all the funds you look at the line of sight you have into their underlying portfolios? For those who are heavily exposed to software, are people pushing the panic buttons? Has it been overhyped? What are you saying?
Eric Hirsch
I think it's a mix. And I think one of the things that's hard right now, and one of the things I'm really pushing back on is this is not a market segment or a market time for people to be overly generalizing. Because as you know, the choices that get made around asset selection, portfolio construction, where on the risk curve you're playing, those are really different choices. And so one of the things we've been sort of talking to investors a lot about lately is the dispersion of returns. That even though the private markets have gotten bigger and they've matured, one of the things that's also happened is there's more and more and more fund managers. So today there are thousands and thousands and thousands of fund managers around the globe. And one of the things that has not happened is we've not seen compression of returns to some mean. We see dispersion being very wide. And so the gapping from top to bottom is enormous. And that's why for investors into the space, manager selection matters. It's why firms like Hamilton Lane have a business model to help investors navigate that, because there's so many managers to look at, and the penalty for not picking the right manager is pretty significant. So when we drop into the software side, we see the exact same thing. Not all portfolios are built the same. There are some managers who paid very high prices for software businesses that are, that are going to struggle in an AI world. And there are other managers who were buying software businesses and they foresaw some of the AI ripple effects. And we're playing right into that. I'm not a believer that all SaaS businesses are going to get wiped out. And in fact, you're now that was the headline narrative a few months ago. Stock market reacted. And it's interesting, more recently, you've actually seen a lot of CEOs of LLMs and other companies saying, no, no, no, no. Actually, we think it's going to be much more of a they have the install base, they have the customer service, they have the sales. We're likely to be additive to that, not erasing that. That, to me, is why these portfolios and why managers who have been investing in software are going to have pretty wildly divergent portfolio outcomes. And investors just need to be very selective and careful as they go through and make choices for the ones that
Anne Barry
can already see that there's risk to those software portfolios, what are they actually doing right when your teams are going in and saying, okay, you can kind of see the writing on the wall for some part of your portfolio. How are you preparing to handle this and preserve some capital? Like, forget returns, but defend your position? What are they saying to you? Are they saying, we're preparing to sell? Are we preparing to make sure that the data has some residual value? Like, what is the game plan for companies like those?
Eric Hirsch
Again, as you know, we interact with all the managers and so we ask the question across the board and you get Very different answers. Some are, I think, head in sand saying, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, this isn't going to be a problem. And others are completely retooling the business, changing business lines, changing operators, creating joint ventures, and are trying to completely reinvent the business. We've seen a number of software companies where if you look at what their model was a few years ago and look at how they're operating today, they fundamentally have altered. And while they were traditional software, they are now that hypercharged with big AI implementation. Well, if the AI is already in there, as the customer of that software, I don't need to get rid of it. They've already solved the problem. And we have one of the examples of a software that we use at Hamilton Lane that went from traditional to very, very AI enabled. But we don't want to rip that out because part of it, the AI issues already inside and the integration across other softwares that it needs to interact with is already there. So there's no incentive for us to go and change that. So there's a good example of a company that saw the problem coming, altered, adapted and changed. And then we can look at other examples where, you know, you can see the bus is barreling down the road right at them and you're screaming, get out of the street, get out of the street. And they're just standing there waiting for the bus to hit them.
Anne Barry
Well, the flip side of how do you get out is where are people putting money to work? And when you look at the managers who are already sitting on capital, they've got their war chests. What are they doing in this market, Eric, the public markets, which is the benchmark for so much private activity, you can argue whether or not they're expensive or cheap. That depends on your view of fundamentals. But multiples are high relative to prior periods, right? So are people just sitting and waiting for something to crack you others saying, look, this is the new normal, we need to embrace this and put capital to work. If you break down what's going on in buyout versus venture versus can we talk about hedge funds? Where are people actually deploying at scale?
Eric Hirsch
So when we saw a huge SaaS correction, you did see some people kind of pouncing where they viewed a chance to get some assets that they think were being fundamentally misunderstood at attractive pricing. So we've seen some of that. And you've also seen plenty of managers who believe that even though these prices are kind of at the moon, they believe that that's just the beginning. They're going to go much higher. And so they're coming in and doing things at these kind of current lofty valuations, believing that this still has an enormous Runway ahead of it. I think where you sort of see the debate is kind of size of the addressable market. You get wildly divergent perspectives on what people believe AI is solving for. We've seen headlines in the last couple days saying, wow, lots of big companies not really getting the monetary benefit that they thought for all the spend. They're burning through tokens, but they're not seeing fundamental increases in productivity. Yikes. And we've seen other studies coming out saying yes, but look at all these problems that have yet to be addressed that could be addressed. And this is the market. And so whatever the use case is today, quadruple it, 10 exit, 100 exit, whatever. Because this addressable market, scaling, scaling, scaling, those are just different perspectives. And I think today there's clear as you see it, because it's competing headlines every day, there's not agreement on that. And so it's not surprising to me that managers are falling in different buckets and are deploying capital accordingly. In the real venture space, early stage, obviously what's dominating the publics are kind of the LLMs and the data piece of it. What's dominating venture is the application part. The how do you take those tools and plug it more directly into consumer facing applications? That's just small, small early stage startup stuff. And there's a lot of capital going to work there, some at very frothy valuations, others more reasonable. But that's going to be an example where some of that's going to work and a bunch of it won't work and you know you're going to see high, high highs and low lows.
Anne Barry
Just a last question for you Eric, which is when you think about the skill sets of fund managers and what's made good fund managers in the past, one of the key areas in which people can prove themselves is in value creation. So they make an investment into a private company and then the private capital firm finds a way to enhance the operations of that business some way somehow right now, where AI is buzzword du jour and it feels as though lots of companies but also fund managers are AI dressing. How do you cut through it in your due diligence? How is your team cutting through it and saying, hang on a second, two years ago, four years ago you fund manager were saying that your strength was in industrials figuring out how to find supply chain efficiencies. Now they're coming to you and saying, we're going to figure out how to AI all of our portfolio. Who's credible in pitching themselves that way to you and who's not.
Eric Hirsch
Well, I think that's, you're exactly hitting the right point. Which is the only way you're going to answer that question is by having the team and the resources and the time to go inside of those fund managers and do a lot of poking around. That's. And this is why this is going to be hard because I think most individuals don't have the access, the resources and the time to go do that. And so firms like ours become important partners for them because we have hundreds of investment professionals around the globe to go and do that. But you're right, one, private equity folks are good salespeople. They're very good at telling a story. And so they're going to come in and tell a story and to try to chop through all that noise and get to, well, what's actually happening takes real work. And that's not something that you're sort of deciding in a 10 minute meeting. You're going and spending the day with them, talking to their portfolio companies, diving in, looking at the portfolio companies, seeing what's actually being implemented. What are they doing? Because while we can get AI tools and get efficiency, you still need to build good cultures, you still need to have good salespeople, you still need to have great management teams that you're working with. So while parts of the business are changing and evolving, there's a lot of other parts that are still the same today and are going to be the same tomorrow. And finding managers that are adept at doing both of those, that's what's going to be the winners here.
Anne Barry
And give us the, give us finish up, Eric, with the your own sales moment. What's going on and what's new at Hamilton Lane that we should be keeping our eye on for the rest of this year? We go into H2.
Eric Hirsch
Well, look, I think the private markets today are about adding much, much needed diversity to a largely public equity portfolio for most investors. And so today we all have seen the headlines. It's too much concentration, it's too much focus on a small number of things. Most investors, if they're just indexed to the public equity market, are missing massive swaths of the economy. And oh, by the way, when the privates are delivering assets to the public market, they're delivering them having a lot of gain already generated along the way that if you're not in the privates you've sort of missed out on. So I think that narrative and having investors really understand kind of what is and what is not happening, sharing with people more data so that we're not making fundamental decisions based on headlines and we're diving into that and getting past the noise and looking at the data. All those things are essential. So I'm excited about what's coming ahead. I'm excited about the technologies that we're deploying internally. But I'm also excited that you've got a firm with 35 years of history of asking those hard questions of managers and trying to make good choices.
Anne Barry
Eric Harsh, CEO of Hamilton Lane, thank you very much for sharing your perspective. Come back. It was terrific.
Eric Hirsch
Always a pleasure. Thank you.
Anne Barry
There it is, the closing bell. It's 4pm on the east Coast. The market's wrapping up for the day, and we don't have a ticker tape, so we'll throw it over instead to our human ticker.
John Gratteau
Our producer, John The S&P 500 finished down 3/10 of a percent, the NASDAQ down 1%, and the Dow finished the day up 2/10 of a percent.
Anne Barry
Lots of big moves in technology again, driving a lot of those swings. Well, I hope you enjoyed the conversation with Eric. We've got a lot more great conversations coming up, including, as we said, one this Friday with the chief marketing officer of Kraft Heinz. So stick around. And in the meantime, that's it for today's Brew Markets Daily.
John Gratteau
Brew Markets Daily is hosted by Anne Barry and produced by John Gratteau, Tarka Bellatif, Avni Laroy and Emily Millard. Our technical director is Uchena Waoghu, Brittany Dotako is our audio engineer, and the president of Morning Brew Inc. Is Devin Emery.
Anne Barry
Wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter and tune in to Neil and Toby on Morning Brew Daily. See you back here tomorrow. Same time, same place.
Eric Hirsch
You can't reason with the sun. Trust us, we've tried. This summer, it's time to put that angry ball of fire on mute. Columbia's Omnishade technology is engineered to protect you from the sun's harsh rays that can burn and damage your skin. The sun is relentless, but so is our gear. Level up your summer@columbia.com to spend more time outside and less time slathering on aloe lotion. You're welcome, Columbia. Engineered for whatever.
Episode Title: OpenAI’s IPO Plan & Will Retail Investors Be Crushed?
Podcast: Brew Markets (Morning Brew)
Host: Anne Barry
Guest: Eric Hirsch, Co-CEO of Hamilton Lane
Date: June 9, 2026
This episode dives into the onset of an AI-fueled IPO race, most notably with OpenAI and Anthropic both filing confidentially to go public. Anne Barry explores the broader implications for the private and public markets, particularly focusing on the tensions between institutional and retail investors in high-profile IPOs and what it could mean for future returns. Guest Eric Hirsch (Hamilton Lane Co-CEO) joins to discuss private credit narratives, shifts in retirement fund structures, and the evolving performance gap among private market managers—especially those exposed to software and AI trends. The episode also covers the new GSK mega-acquisition and market headlines.
"We recently submitted a confidential S1...We expect it to leak, so we're just announcing it. We have not decided on timing yet. It may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company."
– OpenAI statement (01:22)
"The market narrative is wildly split... tech listings often experience a massive pop on day one, but... over 70% of tech companies underperform the broader market..."
– Anne Barry (02:46)
"The agreement values New Valent at about 124 bucks a share. That's a 40% premium to its last closing price…"
– Anne Barry (06:23)
On Big IPOs Draining Liquidity:
“I think this is taking so much capital, so much time and attention and so much headspace for retail investors that... I don't think that's an enormous positive for the private markets.”
– Eric Hirsch (10:20)
Are IPOs Inevitable for Giant Startups?
"If what we instead see here is public investors end up getting crushed because this comes out at way too high of a price and then normalizes, then it's going to be privates did great and publics did poorly."
– Eric Hirsch (12:22)
"I've never seen such a wild disconnect between kind of panic headline, but devoid of hardcore data.… We're not seeing rising default rates. We're not seeing loads of bankruptcies."
– Eric Hirsch (13:05)
"Institutional investors continue to put meaningful capital into the space...Where we've seen the big withdraws...has really been dominated by the individual investor."
– Eric Hirsch (15:47)
"You've got a big inequality factor...pensions...benefited enormously from their exposure to the private markets...self-directed [retirement savers] kept out...that's not good..."
– Eric Hirsch (18:55)
“There's more and more and more fund managers...and the penalty for not picking the right manager is pretty significant.”
– Eric Hirsch (22:35)
“We've seen a number of software companies where ...they fundamentally have altered. And while they were traditional software, they are now...hypercharged with big AI implementation.”
– Eric Hirsch (25:27)
“Private equity folks are good salespeople...chop through all that noise...takes real work. And that's not something that you're sort of deciding in a 10 minute meeting…”
– Eric Hirsch (30:50)
“I think the private markets today are about adding much, much needed diversity to a largely public equity portfolio for most investors.”
– Eric Hirsch (32:30)
On AI IPO FOMO:
"There are others waiting in the rush to tap liquidity before SpaceX and a flood of massive tech offerings force investors to make difficult choices..."
– Anne Barry (02:10)
On post-IPO returns:
"...over 70% of tech companies underperform the broader market in their first 12 to 36 months of public life..."
– Anne Barry (02:46)
Eric Hirsch on risk for retail:
“If what we instead see here is public investors end up getting crushed because this comes out at way too high of a price and then normalizes, then it's going to be privates did great and publics did poorly.”
(12:22)
On private credit headlines:
“I've never seen such a wild disconnect between kind of panic headline, but devoid of hardcore data.”
(13:05)
On picking the right manager:
“The penalty for not picking the right manager is pretty significant.”
(22:35)
On SaaS adaptation:
“You can see the bus is barreling down the road right at them and you're screaming, get out of the street, get out of the street. And they're just standing there waiting for the bus to hit them.”
(25:27)
This episode paints a vivid picture of the high-wire act unfolding at the intersection of Wall Street and Silicon Valley, as blockbuster AI firms seek public capital amid historic valuations. Anne Barry and Eric Hirsch offer a grounded perspective, cautioning listeners to look past the headlines, focus on fundamentals, and realize both the opportunities and pitfalls for retail and institutional investors as the AI IPO wave breaks. The episode underscores the growing complexity—and heightened stakes—of allocating capital in this new tech-driven era, especially for those seeking access to private markets and alternative assets.