Brew Markets: Opendoor – Meme Stock or Misunderstood?

A Debate with Eric Jackson

Date: September 9, 2025
Host: Ann Berry (A)
Guest: Eric Jackson (C), Investor
Producer Comments: John (B)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into Opendoor Technologies—the digital real estate platform whose shares have surged over 1,000% in recent months, despite persistent skepticism from institutional analysts. Host Ann Berry explores why institutional and retail investors have such divergent outlooks on Opendoor, bringing in guest Eric Jackson, a fund manager with a bold $82+ price target (and possibly $200–$500) for the stock. The conversation centers on whether Opendoor is a classic meme stock, a misunderstood cult favorite, or truly a business poised for disruption.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Scene: The Opendoor Phenomenon

• Opendoor’s Model: Buys homes directly from sellers, makes repairs, and resells; aims to profit via service fees and price gains.
• Recent Challenges: Public since 2020 via SPAC, persistent losses, share price sank to around $0.50 earlier in 2025.
• Current Explosion: Now trading above $6, despite negative guidance and recent CEO departure.
• Institution vs. Retail Divide:
  • Institutions: Most Wall Street analysts rate “sell” or “hold” with targets as low as $0.70–$2.
  • Retail & Some Activists: Eric Jackson and others see multi-bagger potential.

2. Cult Stock vs. Meme Stock Debate

[05:46 – 07:29]

• Eric Jackson’s View:

  • “Meme stocks are usually, usually shooting stars. They have some popularity for a short duration and then they're gone. I don't think of them as durable businesses… Cult stocks, though...are misunderstood businesses, usually misunderstood by the institutional community and adopted first by the retail oriented community... that's what's happened with Opendoor.” — Eric Jackson [05:58]
  • Jackson distinguishes Opendoor (cult) from GameStop/AMC (meme): Opendoor, like Tesla and Palantir, has long-term business substance.

• Ann Berry’s Counterpoint:

  • Challenges Eric’s definition, highlighting that even “real businesses” like Krispy Kreme have become meme stocks due to hype and questionable valuations.
  • Raises past failed iBuying attempts—Zillow, Redfin—as cautionary precedents.

3. The Case for Opendoor: Industry Inefficiency and Untapped Opportunity

[08:15 – 11:25]

• Jackson: The U.S. residential market is $20T and highly inefficient, ripe for disruption.
  • “We've seen other markets democratized...Uber, Airbnb, Carvana…But we haven’t seen that happen yet in real estate. Opendoor's core business was always iBuying, whereas Zillow's was ads and Redfin’s was brokerage...Opendoor really has no national competition to go after the uberfication of this market.” — Eric Jackson [08:15]
• Business Model Edge: Opendoor attracts real transaction intent, not just “looky-loos.”
  • “Opendoor has one and a half million Americans who come to it every year and request a quote on their house...It's sort of the equivalent of like search intent for the real estate community.” — Eric Jackson [11:25]

4. The Path to Profitability: Carvana Comparison & Business Model Shift

[13:34 – 15:15]

• Carvana Analogy: The playbook is to become not the Uber (asset-light), but the “Carvana” of homes—making margins on the financing side (mortgages and title), not just property flipping.
  • “Carvana doesn't make that much money from buying and selling cars...it makes virtually all of its 20 plus percent EBITDA margins from finance and interest. Opendoor's equivalent...is mortgage and title.” — Eric Jackson [13:34]
• Ann Berry probes further: Skeptical of the comparison—notes that Opendoor’s capital intensity differs significantly from asset-light platforms, so the analogy to Uber or even Carvana requires caution.

5. Recent Financials & Macro Backdrop

[15:15 – 18:07]

• First Positive EBITDA in Three Years:

  • Achieved despite a tough, high-mortgage-rate environment.
  • “They were still EBITDA positive in this environment...All of those things directly lead to higher volumes for Opendoor and a much more profitable business than what Wall Street expects, which is virtually nothing.” — Eric Jackson [15:15]

• Macro Levers:

  • Jackson expects rate cuts and political focus on home affordability to support higher real estate volumes.
  • Hints at low expectations from Wall Street as a setup for upside surprises.

• Ann Berry cautions: Even if rates drop, the Fed projects that the new “neutral rate” will be higher than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting margin headwinds may persist.

6. Outrageous Valuation Targets: $82, $200, $500?

[18:07 – 21:34]

• Goldman Sachs Target: $1 (12-month)
• Jackson’s Targets & Justification:
  • “At 82 bucks, Opendoor would be worth about $60 billion…about five times projected 2029 revenue. For $200 a share...12 times 2029 revenue.”
  • Method relies on price-to-sales (like Carvana), with assumption of steady growth, margin expansion via services, AI, reduced headcount, and possible international expansion.
  • “My assumption was if things normalize, it proves steady state profitability...I think it's reasonable to think it could go back to five times forward by 2028 looking to 29, and that's how you get to $82 a share.” — Eric Jackson [19:00]
  • Blue-sky scenarios include dominating the US and international market—“that's how you get to $200 and then $500 a share.” — Eric Jackson [19:00]
• Host pushes back: Questions whether the Carvana analogy can stretch this far in real estate’s capital-intense business.

7. Push for Board Change & Visionary Leadership

[22:29 – 24:12]

• Jackson’s Prescription:
  • Wants a “Travis Kalanick” (Uber’s founder) or Keith Raboy back at the helm, to drive the business’s next growth phase.
  • Criticizes the caretaker board for conservatism and a lack of vision:
    • “The board elevated the prior CFO to the CEO position because they didn't know who else could take the job...probably being an easy acquisition target...The dominant player, the brand name...is the opportunity that the next CEO will have. And I hope they'll have a board that believes in that vision as well.” — Eric Jackson [22:45]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Cult stock vs. meme stock:

  • “Meme stocks...are sort of flash in the pans... Cult stocks are real businesses. They are misunderstood businesses, usually misunderstood by the institutional community and adopted first by the retail oriented community.”
    — Eric Jackson [05:58]

• On Opendoor’s unique position:

  • “There hasn't been an uberfication of real estate transactions yet...Opendoor really has no national competition to go after the Uber ification of this market.”
    — Eric Jackson [08:15]

• On path to high margins:

  • “Opendoor's equivalent to finance and interest like Carvana is mortgage and title. So they can get into mortgage and title much more than they did historically.”
    — Eric Jackson [13:34]

• Valuation bull case:

  • “If things normalize...I think it's reasonable to think it could go back to five times forward [sales] by 2028...That’s how you get to $82 a share.”
    — Eric Jackson [19:00]

• On leadership change:

  • “If I was going to wave a magic wand and I would have someone like Travis Kalanick run this company...the ethos with which he built Uber is exactly what Opendoor needs at this point.”
    — Eric Jackson [22:45]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro and Market Context: [00:01 – 05:46]
• Cult vs. Meme Stock Debate: [05:46 – 08:15]
• Disruption Opportunity in Real Estate: [08:15 – 11:25]
• Business Model and Margin Expansion: [11:25 – 15:15]
• Macro Environment Discussion: [15:15 – 18:07]
• Valuation Debate ($82/$200/$500 Targets): [18:07 – 22:29]
• Leadership and Board Vision: [22:29 – 24:12]

Conclusion

This episode served as a riveting back-and-forth between bullish conviction and cautious skepticism. Eric Jackson presents a vision of Opendoor as a rare “cult stock”—potentially misunderstood by analysts, but with an enormous market opportunity and a plan to turbocharge margins through new services. Ann Berry tempers the conversation with pointed questions about precedent, margin structure, and the reality of capital intensity. The episode closes with Jackson’s call for bold leadership—urging Opendoor’s board to find the next iconoclastic CEO.

Perfect for listeners interested in the intersection of market psychology, disruptive business models, and the sometimes-bizarre gap between Wall Street and retail investor sentiment.