Brew Markets Daily – Episode Summary

Podcast: Brew Markets
Host: Ann Berry
Episode: PayPal Partners With Alphabet & Inside the Fed: Who Votes?
Date: September 18, 2025

Overview

This episode of Brew Markets Daily dives into two major stories shaping the day’s financial news:

• The evolving fortunes of PayPal, highlighted by a new partnership with Alphabet (Google)
• An in-depth explainer on how the Federal Reserve makes its interest rate decisions—who votes, how they're chosen, and why it matters

The show also covers leading market headlines, including major moves by tech giants, the impact of weight-loss drugs on the restaurant sector, and fresh legal action against Ticketmaster.

1. PayPal’s Second Act: Partnering with Google

Segment begins: [00:01]

• Struggles and Potential:
  Ann Berry reflects on PayPal’s wasted potential over the last five years, especially with its scale (266 million monthly active users) and its legacy brands, PayPal and Venmo.

  "There is nothing more frustrating than wasted potential. And watching PayPal for the past five years has been... extremely frustrating." — Ann Berry [00:10]

• Missed Chances:
  Despite these advantages, PayPal lagged behind in innovation. Notably, it was late to the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) trend, which was championed by Affirm—a company founded by a PayPal co-founder.

• Share Price Performance:
  PayPal’s shares are down 60% over five years, reflecting this sluggishness, though there has been a recent bump with the arrival of new CEO Alex Chriss.

• CEO’s New Vision:
  The new direction focuses on AI partnerships:

  "The major players in AI, including Perplexity, Anthropic and Salesforce, are working with PayPal to create powerful new agentic commerce experiences..." — Alex Chriss (from July earnings call, replayed by Ann Berry) [02:35]

• The Big News – Alphabet Partnership:
  Alphabet (Google) announced it will now integrate PayPal’s enterprise products for card payments across Google Cloud and Google Play.

  • Despite this positive move, Wall Street’s reaction remains muted: growth is slow, and the share price is still down 20% year to date, while rivals like Affirm have surged.

2. Inside the Fed: How Rate Decisions Are Made

Segment begins: [04:16]

• Why It Matters:
  The episode transitions to explain how the Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) sets interest rates—a process affecting everything from loans to mortgages.

  "These rates, if not immediately, at some point, filter through to everything from our auto loan costs to our mortgages." — Ann Berry [04:25]

• The Structure of the Fed:
  Explained by co-host John:

  • The Board of Governors (7 members, based in Washington, D.C.)
  • 12 Regional Federal Reserve Banks (each with its own president)

• Choosing the Bank Presidents:
  Presidents of each Reserve Bank are selected by their board of directors (some representing the public), with the help of outside search firms.

  "A candidate is found by literally hiring a search firm... that can come from both inside and outside the Federal Reserve System." — Ann Berry [05:34]

• FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee):

  • 19 people in total: 7 Governors + 12 Bank Presidents
  • Only 12 have voting power at one time: always all 7 Governors, plus 5 rotating Bank Presidents (for one-year terms)
  • This arrangement ensures “quite a lot of diversity,” with appointees from different presidential eras and perspectives.
  • The FOMC meets eight times a year.

• Real-Time Example:

  • Lisa Cook: Recently reinstated after being removed due to allegations of mortgage fraud; her position is politically contested.
  • Stephen Myron: Sworn in just before the latest meeting (nominated by President Trump)

• How Votes Work:

  • Votes are public; the latest meeting saw an 11-1 majority for a 0.25% rate cut.
  • Notably, Stephen Myron wanted a deeper cut (0.50%).

  "The market likes to see, given all the diversity... how united or not the FOMC is when it comes to deciding what to do on a rate decision." — Ann Berry [08:30]

• The Dot Plot:

  • All 19 (even non-voting) members anonymously submit their expectations for future rates, visualized as a "dot plot."
  • This is not an official plan, but shows the range of thinking inside the Fed.

  "This dot plot is again something that the market looks at... It's a scatter graph... This is not a plan. The dot plot is not a plan... but it's the perspective of 19 individuals very well placed to figure out what the rate should look like over time." — Ann Berry [09:29]

• Market Implications:

  • The latest dot plot suggests the possibility of two more rate cuts this year, sooner than expected.

3. Major Market Headlines

Segment begins: [11:27]

a) Meta’s New Smart Glasses

• Meta unveiled three new smart glasses at its annual developer conference.
• The “Meta Ray Ban display” can show apps, share to Instagram, and play music.
• Distinction: Ann prefers these to Apple’s Vision Pro (“I really don't need to be distracted walking through the streets of Manhattan with trying to look at my Instagram.") [12:05]
• Memorable moment: The demo glitched; Mark Zuckerberg blamed the Wi-Fi, not the AI.

  "He did not say our AI didn't work. He said the WI FI connection went down." — Ann Berry [12:55]

b) Intel Surges on Nvidia Investment

• Intel shares jumped 30% after Nvidia's $5B investment for co-developing chips.
• Intel has attracted significant investments recently (SoftBank, U.S. government).
• Nvidia shares also benefited, up 3.5%.
• Ann observes that this deal may give Nvidia new revenue streams beyond China.

c) Darden Restaurants and the GLP-1 Effect

• Darden (Olive Garden, Longhorn, etc.) raised its sales outlook, but earnings will stay low due to high costs and pressure to keep prices down.
• Notable: Olive Garden tested smaller, lower-priced entrees to target value diners and those on weight-loss drugs (GLP-1s).
• Despite meeting Wall Street sales estimates, Darden shares fell 10%.

  "We're getting European at American prices." — John [15:08]

d) Live Nation (Ticketmaster) Faces Lawsuit

• The FTC and seven states are suing Live Nation for not curbing ticketing bots, enabling scalpers to drive up secondary market prices.
• Ann connects this to artists like Taylor Swift, who have publicly criticized inflated resale prices.

  "This is the kind of thing that we knew drove like Taylor Swift bananas during the eras tour." — Ann Berry [15:24]

• Live Nation shares dipped; StubHub, a rival, fell 6%.

Notable Quotes

• “There is nothing more frustrating than wasted potential. And watching PayPal for the past five years has been... extremely frustrating.” — Ann Berry [00:10]
• “The major players in AI, including Perplexity, Anthropic and Salesforce, are working with PayPal to create powerful new agentic commerce experiences.” — Alex Chriss (as played by Ann Berry) [02:35]
• “These rates... filter through to everything from our auto loan costs to our mortgages.” — Ann Berry [04:25]
• “He did not say our AI didn’t work. He said the WI FI connection went down.” — Ann Berry [12:55]
• “We're getting European at American prices.” — John [15:08]
• “This is the kind of thing that we knew drove like Taylor Swift bananas during the eras tour.” — Ann Berry [15:24]

Conclusion

The episode delivers a fast-paced, insightful breakdown of daily market headlines, with deep dives into PayPal’s turnaround efforts and a rare, accessible look into the Federal Reserve’s inner workings. Lively banter and fresh analysis—punctuated by memorable quotes—make even the most technical topics engaging and easy to follow.