Brew Markets – Episode Summary

Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Ann Berry
Episode Title: Pizza Hut For Sale & Betting Against AI: Big Short or “Bat S**t”?

Overview

This episode of Brew Markets, hosted by Ann Berry with regular contributor John Crateau, dives into the day’s hottest stock market stories, focusing on three major themes:

• Hedge fund legend Michael Burry’s massive short bets against AI darlings Nvidia and Palantir, igniting debate about a potential AI market bubble.
• The major turnaround (and accounting wizardry) at Hertz, plus possible big changes on the menu for Yum Brands—specifically, chatter about selling Pizza Hut.
• Spotify’s growth amid industry tumult, a dramatic “big bath” at payments company Fiserv, and rapid-fire updates on Tesla, Starbucks, and biotech M&A drama.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Is the AI Bubble About to Burst? Burry vs. the Bulls

[00:01 – 04:45]

• Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 crash, has taken over $1 billion in put options (bets against) Nvidia and Palantir, the poster children of the AI boom.
• His cryptic post on X (Twitter) stoked speculation:

  “Sometimes we see bubbles, sometimes there is nothing to do about it. Sometimes the only winning move is not to play.” (Burry, referenced at [00:55])

• Palantir CEO Alex Karp fired back on CNBC:

  “The two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money, which is super weird. The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is batshit crazy.” ([01:18])

• Palantir’s earnings soared (up 63% YoY; commercial division over 120% YoY, revenue near $1.2B), but stock still fell over valuation worries—its PEG ratio is an “outlier” at 250+.
• Other AI names saw similar market jitters—Meta, Uber, and the Nasdaq all dipped, and the “drumbeat of caution” about valuations is getting louder.

2. Hertz’s Remarkable Turnaround

[04:45 – 09:14]

• Hertz posted earnings of $0.42/share vs. $0.03 estimate, with shares jumping 40% (first EPS profit in two years).
• Ann Berry explains how lower fleet depreciation (by 50% this quarter) played a major role and connects accounting theory to real operational improvements.

  “There is nothing more refreshing than a CEO willing to look at their business and call it a used car factory.” – Ann Berry, quoting Hertz CEO Gil West ([08:19])

• Hertz’s fleet strategy pivoted away from problematic EVs (which depreciated fast and were harder to maintain) towards newer, more easily sold cars.
• Selling used cars one-by-one on Amazon (rather than fleets at auction) is fetching higher prices ([08:01]).
• Stock up ~90% YTD, driven by these efficiency-focused moves.

3. Yum Brands: KFC and Taco Bell Thrive, but Pizza Hut is "For Sale?"

[09:14 – 13:52]

• Yum Brands’ strong quarter: Taco Bell (+7% same-store sales) and KFC (+3%) are growing, but Pizza Hut floundered (US sales -7%, same-store -1%).
• Ann speculates a sale is looming:

  “Such a long way of saying that is many, many words for the Yum Brands saying we are thinking of selling.” ([11:02])

• Pizza Hut’s identity crisis: inconsistent in-store/delivery experiences vs. Domino’s innovation (stuffed crust, etc).
• Apollo Global dropped its bid to acquire Papa John’s due to deteriorating consumer spending and QSR industry challenges, causing Papa John’s shares to tank 18%, but Yum Brands stock went up 6% on sale speculation.
• New Yum CEO Chris Turner (since Oct 1) may be eyeing bold moves no company veteran would make.

4. Spotify: User/Revenue Growth Despite Headwinds

[13:53 – 17:56]

• Spotify’s users and revenue grew double digits (subscribers +12% YoY, 713M MAUs).
• Subscription price hikes haven’t stunted growth—Ann notes:

  “The company is telling us... the number of users and subscribers has gone up double digits year over year, even though... they've actually put prices up. So this really is proving out a business model.” ([14:50])

• New features (on-demand songs on free tier, future rollout of lossless audio) and ChatGPT integration are expanding reach.
• AI-generated music removal efforts and artist backlash (over CEO Daniel Ek’s investment in military AI) create PR/legal headaches.
• Daniel Ek is shifting to exec chairman; Spotify’s nimble, risk-taking strategy continues, with stock up 40% YTD.

5. Fiserv’s Dramatic “Big Bath”—A New CEO’s Power Move

[19:05 – 22:44]

• Ann introduces the “Big Bath Theory”: New management seizes a crisis or transition to take huge write-offs, blame the past, and reset future expectations.
• Fiserv’s new CEO Mike Lyons wasted no time—after a searching “analysis” and management shakeup, he declared:

  “Fiserv’s growth and margin targets need to be reset... The company is not fundamentally broken.” ([19:49])

• Lyons called prior 10–12% 2025 growth targets “optimistic” and detailed unrealistic assumptions in earlier guidance:

  “It became clear that there were incremental assumptions... all of which would have been objectively difficult to achieve.” – Mike Lyons, quoted by John Crateau ([21:36])

• Fiserv shares plunged 50% in five days. Ann predicts “more action coming here” as new leaders elsewhere may follow this page out of the CEO playbook.

6. Market Headlines & Notable News

[22:44 – 24:11]

• Indices down sharply: S&P 500 -1.2%, Dow -0.5%, Nasdaq -2%, Bitcoin (below $100k for first time in 4 months, down 18% last month).
• Norway’s sovereign wealth fund opposed Elon Musk’s $1T pay package at Tesla, possibly influencing broader shareholder sentiment.
• Starbucks is selling a 60% stake in its China ops to private equity (Bayou Capital) for $4B; shares dipped after initial spike.
• Ongoing bidding war for biotech Metsera between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk—bids escalating ($10B from Novo), with legal fireworks ongoing.

Notable Quotes

• Ann Berry, on AI valuation skepticism:

  “Such is the range of opinions on tech valuations right now... one man's short position... is another one's batshit crazy.” ([00:20])

• Palantir CEO Alex Karp, on being shorted:

  “The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is batshit crazy.” ([01:29])

• Ann Berry, on Hertz’s used-car business:

  “There is nothing more refreshing than a CEO willing to look at their business and call it a used car factory.” ([08:19])

• Ann Berry, on Pizza Hut’s changing role:

  “Consistency is so important when you actually get one of these brands that you see everywhere, particularly when they're global.” ([12:32])

• Ann Berry, on price hikes and streaming:

  “Consumers are willing to pay for it.” ([15:08])

• Fiserv CEO Mike Lyons, via John Crateau:

  “There were incremental assumptions embedded in our guidance... all of which would have been objectively difficult to achieve.” ([21:36])

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------|------------| | AI Bubble/Burry Short Bets | 00:01–04:45| | Hertz Earnings & Turnaround | 04:45–09:14| | Yum Brands: Pizza Hut for Sale? | 09:14–13:52| | Spotify’s Business & Platform Shifts | 13:53–17:56| | Fiserv New CEO & “Big Bath” Accounting | 19:05–22:44| | Indices & Market Headlines | 22:44–24:11| | M&A: Metsera Bidding War | 24:11–25:13|

Memorable Moments

• Ann and John’s banter about classic ticker tape machines ([04:00]) and old-school Wall Street culture.
• The metaphor of “used car factory” for Hertz’s business model: “They’re no longer just renting... and then it can be yours for the right price.” ([08:48])
• The tongue-in-cheek translation of “corporate speak” on Pizza Hut: “Such a long way of saying... we are thinking of selling.” ([11:02])
• Ann’s excitement about the ongoing biotech auction and her “auctioneer” voice ([24:11]).

Tone & Language

• Lively, pun-filled (e.g., “out pizza the Hut”), sometimes irreverent but always informative.
• Phrases like “nerding out” and “getting punier” add fun and accessibility to financial analysis.
• Ann’s explanations break down accounting jargon and corporate maneuvering for a lay audience.

Summary

This episode skillfully balances sharp market intelligence with relatable explanation and humor. It delivers actionable insights on major moves in the AI, automotive, restaurant, fintech, and streaming sectors—all through the lens of how rapid change (technological, managerial, or market sentiment-driven) is turning up opportunities and risks for both investors and company insiders. It’s an essential listen for anyone following the markets or working in finance, with a few “batshit crazy” moments to keep you laughing along the way.